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I like ours, too.
2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by proshares,
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New MLB batting practice caps, via UniWatch:
http://espn.go.com/blog/playbook/fandom/post/_/id/16228/first-look-new-mlb-batting-practice-caps
"The new caps have no silly stretch panels and no extraneous design."
Some are major improvements:
So if they are no longer the stretch fit, does that mean they are now the 5950 style? I sure hope not. My head is too small to wear those hats with huge crowns without looking stupid. If they make them the 5950 low crown style I wouldn't mind but I can't wear the regular game caps.
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Matsui officially retired. One of my favorite Yankees and I can't wait to see him at the old timer's game.
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what a big difference hahahahaha
jumpmanfromdabay
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It's just a BP hat
5 best moves yet to be made.
Who needs Michael Bourn most?
Hanrahan a minor upgrade at minor cost.
The biggest storylines of 2013.
Youngsters who will bounce back.
White Sox are a sleeper team.
Nats ready for shutdown to pay off.
Rumors.
We've already seen plenty of wheeling and dealing this winter, but there are some teams with holes still to fill. Here are five moves out there to be made that would change the fortunes of a few contenders.
1. Texas Rangers-Miami Marlins trade
Rangers give up: Jurickson Profar, Mike Olt and Martin Perez
Acquire: Giancarlo Stanton and Ricky Nolasco
The Rangers need to find a way to replace the 70 home runs they lost when both Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli left via free agency. The Rangers have tried to acquire Justin Upton, but want to build the deal around Olt and Perez and have refused to include Profar in a deal for him. The Rangers' target list includes Stanton of the Marlins, Carlos Gonzalez of the Rockies and Upton of the Arizona Diamondbacks.
However, I could see them parting with Profar in a deal for Stanton, as he is younger, cheaper and better than Upton. Additionally, the Rangers need another starter, and Nolasco would fit in nicely in the back end of their rotation while Stanton would provide the power in the cleanup spot lost when Hamilton departed to the Angels.
The Marlins would solve the left side of their infield for years to come and Perez would be a cheaper version of Nolasco for the rotation. Stanton desperately wants out of Miami but they could never trade him unless they were getting back a prospect at the level of a Profar.
2. Colorado Rockies-St. Louis Cardinals trade
Rockies give up: Carlos Gonzalez
Acquire: Trevor Rosenthal, Shelby Miller and Jon Jay
The Rockies have said they don’t plan on trading Gonzalez, but they also know if they don’t do something drastic to address their starting rotation woes, it could be a few long summers in Denver.
Gonzalez would give the Cardinals the best and most balanced lineup in the National League. To put Gonzalez in the middle of Matt Holliday, Carlos Beltran, Allen Craig and David Freese sets them up for the short- and long-term as they wait for Oscar Taveras to take over for Beltran in 2014. CarGo is locked up through 2017 at less than $15 million per year, which is very reasonable for a player of his caliber. And before you say that Gonzalez is simply a product of Coors Field, remember that people used to say the same thing about Holliday, and he has proven that theory incorrect in St. Louis.
Rosenthal and Miller are both close to the majors and have upside. They are the kind of talented arms the Rockies lack. Jay is a solid outfielder, and he would be a nice fit in Colorado.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks-Boston Red Sox trade
D-backs give up: Justin Upton
Acquire: Xander Bogaerts, Matt Barnes and Brandon Jacobs
The D-backs have made it clear they are willing to move Upton in the right deal, and after acquiring Didi Gregorius in the Trevor Bauer deal, they still need a long-term answer at third. Although Bogaerts is a shortstop now, many think he will outgrow the position and end up at third, where his power will play. Matt Barnes would give them a solid starting pitching prospect who would fill the inventory void left after the Bauer deal, while Jacobs would give them a decent outfield prospect back as well.
The Red Sox would then have an outfield of Upton, Jacoby Ellsbury and Shane Victorino with Jonny Gomes as a fourth outfielder and part-time DH. It would also prepare the Sox for the eventual loss of Ellsbury at the end of this year when he is expected to depart via free agency. Upton will make $39.5 million over the next three years and wouldn't even need to match his 2011 performance to be a bargain.
4. Baltimore Orioles sign Kyle Lohse to three-year, $45 million dollar deal
The Orioles took a 93-loss team in 2011 and turned it into a 93-win team in 2012. However, for the Orioles to make it back to the playoffs they could really use a proven starter to slot at or near the front of their rotation.
Lohse, 34, has a 3.11 ERA in 399 1/3 innings over the last two seasons and would give the O's rotation some much-needed innings and reliability until top prospects Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman arrive. The AL East is wide open, and the Orioles can't sit around and let someone else take the division.
5. Toronto Blue Jays sign Rafael Soriano to one-year, $14 million dollar deal
The Blue Jays have made two huge blockbuster trades this offseason that have give the team a complete makeover and made them the division favorites. It would only make sense now to make one more move to put them over the top.
Soriano's market has fallen and he might be willing to take a one-year “pillow” deal -- a phrase coined by Scott Boras -- at approximately $14 million. To put Soriano in the ninth inning and move Casey Janssen and Sergio Santos to the seventh and eighth innings would give the Blue Jays one of the best and deepest bullpens in the league.
With the Yankees and Orioles doing little to improve this winter, it would only make sense to try and put a clamp on the division. This move would do it.
1. Texas Rangers-Miami Marlins trade
Rangers give up: Jurickson Profar, Mike Olt and Martin Perez
Acquire: Giancarlo Stanton and Ricky Nolasco
The Rangers need to find a way to replace the 70 home runs they lost when both Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli left via free agency. The Rangers have tried to acquire Justin Upton, but want to build the deal around Olt and Perez and have refused to include Profar in a deal for him. The Rangers' target list includes Stanton of the Marlins, Carlos Gonzalez of the Rockies and Upton of the Arizona Diamondbacks.
However, I could see them parting with Profar in a deal for Stanton, as he is younger, cheaper and better than Upton. Additionally, the Rangers need another starter, and Nolasco would fit in nicely in the back end of their rotation while Stanton would provide the power in the cleanup spot lost when Hamilton departed to the Angels.
The Marlins would solve the left side of their infield for years to come and Perez would be a cheaper version of Nolasco for the rotation. Stanton desperately wants out of Miami but they could never trade him unless they were getting back a prospect at the level of a Profar.
2. Colorado Rockies-St. Louis Cardinals trade
Rockies give up: Carlos Gonzalez
Acquire: Trevor Rosenthal, Shelby Miller and Jon Jay
The Rockies have said they don’t plan on trading Gonzalez, but they also know if they don’t do something drastic to address their starting rotation woes, it could be a few long summers in Denver.
Gonzalez would give the Cardinals the best and most balanced lineup in the National League. To put Gonzalez in the middle of Matt Holliday, Carlos Beltran, Allen Craig and David Freese sets them up for the short- and long-term as they wait for Oscar Taveras to take over for Beltran in 2014. CarGo is locked up through 2017 at less than $15 million per year, which is very reasonable for a player of his caliber. And before you say that Gonzalez is simply a product of Coors Field, remember that people used to say the same thing about Holliday, and he has proven that theory incorrect in St. Louis.
Rosenthal and Miller are both close to the majors and have upside. They are the kind of talented arms the Rockies lack. Jay is a solid outfielder, and he would be a nice fit in Colorado.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks-Boston Red Sox trade
D-backs give up: Justin Upton
Acquire: Xander Bogaerts, Matt Barnes and Brandon Jacobs
The D-backs have made it clear they are willing to move Upton in the right deal, and after acquiring Didi Gregorius in the Trevor Bauer deal, they still need a long-term answer at third. Although Bogaerts is a shortstop now, many think he will outgrow the position and end up at third, where his power will play. Matt Barnes would give them a solid starting pitching prospect who would fill the inventory void left after the Bauer deal, while Jacobs would give them a decent outfield prospect back as well.
The Red Sox would then have an outfield of Upton, Jacoby Ellsbury and Shane Victorino with Jonny Gomes as a fourth outfielder and part-time DH. It would also prepare the Sox for the eventual loss of Ellsbury at the end of this year when he is expected to depart via free agency. Upton will make $39.5 million over the next three years and wouldn't even need to match his 2011 performance to be a bargain.
4. Baltimore Orioles sign Kyle Lohse to three-year, $45 million dollar deal
The Orioles took a 93-loss team in 2011 and turned it into a 93-win team in 2012. However, for the Orioles to make it back to the playoffs they could really use a proven starter to slot at or near the front of their rotation.
Lohse, 34, has a 3.11 ERA in 399 1/3 innings over the last two seasons and would give the O's rotation some much-needed innings and reliability until top prospects Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman arrive. The AL East is wide open, and the Orioles can't sit around and let someone else take the division.
5. Toronto Blue Jays sign Rafael Soriano to one-year, $14 million dollar deal
The Blue Jays have made two huge blockbuster trades this offseason that have give the team a complete makeover and made them the division favorites. It would only make sense now to make one more move to put them over the top.
Soriano's market has fallen and he might be willing to take a one-year “pillow” deal -- a phrase coined by Scott Boras -- at approximately $14 million. To put Soriano in the ninth inning and move Casey Janssen and Sergio Santos to the seventh and eighth innings would give the Blue Jays one of the best and deepest bullpens in the league.
With the Yankees and Orioles doing little to improve this winter, it would only make sense to try and put a clamp on the division. This move would do it.
Who needs Michael Bourn most?
Michael Bourn turns 30 on Thursday, but barring a buzzer-beating offer, he won't get the gift of a new contract until after his birthday. Bourn, the highest-ranked free agent remaining on the market, hasn't attracted the widespread interest that he and agent Scott Boras had hoped for.
Some teams may be concerned that the center fielder's speed-based skill set could suffer once he loses a step; others might be reluctant or unwilling to forfeit the draft pick Bourn would cost them because of the qualifying offer he received from the Atlanta Braves. Regardless of their reasons for looking elsewhere, several potential buyers for Bourn have already removed themselves from the running by making other moves: the Washington Nationals, Philadelphia Phillies, Cincinnati Reds, and Oakland Athletics have landed center fielders via trade, while the San Francisco Giants and Braves have invested in other free agents, re-signing Angel Pagan and bringing in B.J. Upton, respectively.
It's still too soon for Bourn to panic or consider seeking new representation. While it's possible he'll have to settle for the one-year "pillow contract" some Boras clients have had to swallow when their expected megadeals never materialized, Boras has often wangled the biggest possible payday by waiting until late in the offseason, when some teams are desperate for an upgrade and there are few attractive alternatives to his high-profile clients.
While the pool of potential suitors has shrunk, several destinations are still in play. Of course, some teams with vacancies in center probably aren't realistic possibilities: Bourn would improve teams like the New York Mets or Houston Astros as much as anyone, but those clubs are too strapped for cash or too far from competition to consider signing such a big-ticket item. Assuming he'll eventually land a five-year, $75 million deal in neighborhood of Upton's -- or at least a contract of equivalent annual value over fewer years -- the following three teams would both be able to afford Bourn and benefit most from his services.
1. Seattle Mariners
After inheriting a weak defensive team in 2008, Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik made it his mission to build a club that could catch the ball. The M's have been one of baseball's best defensive teams in every season since.
Incumbent center fielder Franklin Gutierrez was a vital part of Zduriencik's initial defensive makeover, but health problems have limited him to just 132 games over the past two seasons, and he could be a year away from free agency if Seattle doesn't exercise his $7.5 million option for 2014. While Bourn might have made an even bigger impact before the Mariners decided to move Safeco Field's fences in, the park should still play plenty big. Signing Bourn, sliding Gutierrez over to an outfield corner, and trading some of the team's surplus outfield parts for a starter would solve a lot of problems for Seattle.
Bourn would also bring some on-base ability to the top of an order that's sorely in need of anyone who can avoid making outs: Mariners leadoff batters (mostly Dustin Ackley) managed only a .281 OBP last season, by far the lowest of any AL team. The M's have largely been linked to hitters who would have improved their power output, like Josh Hamilton and Nick Swisher, but putting more men on base would go a long way toward curbing their offensive ineptitude. Improving their performance after they reach base wouldn't hurt, either: the Mariners were the AL's second worst baserunning team in 2012, at more than eight runs below average. Bourn, who led the majors with 11.7 baserunning runs last season, could have put them in the black by himself.
The AL West is deep, but we saw the A's come out of nowhere to contend in 2012. The Mariners have a similar level of pitching talent in their system and could surprise some folks with a little bit more offensive output.
2. Texas Rangers
Texas has been one of the least active contending teams this winter, but not for lack of trying: the Rangers have expressed interest in nearly every top free agent and trade target, but they haven't inked anyone more expensive than A.J. Pierzynski. Meanwhile, the division-rival Angels have raided the Rangers' roster for Josh Hamilton, leaving Texas in a tenuous position for 2013 unless the team makes another move. On Wednesday afternoon, Rangers GM Jon Daniels admitted "There's a decent chance we'll look to add somebody," and that somebody might be Bourn.
The addition of Bourn would do nothing to replace the home runs the Rangers lost when Hamilton and Mike Napoli left, but runs prevented are about as beneficial as runs scored, and what Bourn lacks in extra-base power he makes up with his ability to deprive opposing players of hits. Texas had a middle-of-the-pack defense last season, and Bourn's elite play in center would help address that deficiency.
The biggest obstacle for Boras might be that Texas already has two speed-and-defense-oriented center fielders in Leonys Martin and Craig Gentry, who could platoon in center and provide a decent approximation of Bourn's value for a fraction of the price. Daniels might not consider the difference between Bourn and his in-house options worth the premium he'd have to pay.
3. Chicago Cubs
The Cubs make less sense as suitors for Bourn than the other two teams, but they haven't hesitated to spend this winter. And not only did they speak to Boras about Bourn early in the offseason, their center-field situation is something of a cipher.
The Cubs' current center-field depth chart is topped by David DeJesus, who hasn't played center as his primary position since 2007; prospect Brett Jackson will start the season in Triple-A after his ugly 2012 debut, and he's far from a sure thing. After signing Nate Schierholtz, Chicago might need to trade Alfonso Soriano to make room for Bourn, but a Soriano trade has long been on their agenda anyway.
Although they might still be a year or two away from contention, the Cubs have been aggressive on the free-agent market, and they showed they weren't unwilling to make a multiyear commitment when they locked up Edwin Jackson. It's a long shot, but if Bourn's asking price falls far enough, it wouldn't be out of character for Theo Epstein to try to take advantage of a down market.
It's possible that another team could get involved in the Bourn bidding, but it would likely require a trade, a position switch or a dramatic reduction in the outfielder's demands. The Los Angeles Dodgers and Boston Red Sox have reportedly toyed with the idea of trading Andre Ethier and Jacoby Ellsbury, respectively, which could free up space for Bourn in Boston.
The Phillies have been tied to Bourn despite their trade for Ben Revere, who's a natural fit for center. Dealing for Revere only to consign him to a corner wouldn't seem to make much sense, but it's never wise to bet against Ruben Amaro making a splash.
Maybe the Blue Jays, who've already signed or traded for a roster's worth of stars this offseason, could throw caution to the winds and bench or trade the disappointing Colby Rasmus in favor of Bourn. The Jays haven't been rumored as a destination for Bourn, but signing him wouldn't be the first major move Alex Anthopoulos has made without warning. It might sound far-fetched, but aside from Seattle or Texas, there are few natural fits for Bourn -- which helps to explain why he's still looking for work this later in the winter.
Some teams may be concerned that the center fielder's speed-based skill set could suffer once he loses a step; others might be reluctant or unwilling to forfeit the draft pick Bourn would cost them because of the qualifying offer he received from the Atlanta Braves. Regardless of their reasons for looking elsewhere, several potential buyers for Bourn have already removed themselves from the running by making other moves: the Washington Nationals, Philadelphia Phillies, Cincinnati Reds, and Oakland Athletics have landed center fielders via trade, while the San Francisco Giants and Braves have invested in other free agents, re-signing Angel Pagan and bringing in B.J. Upton, respectively.
It's still too soon for Bourn to panic or consider seeking new representation. While it's possible he'll have to settle for the one-year "pillow contract" some Boras clients have had to swallow when their expected megadeals never materialized, Boras has often wangled the biggest possible payday by waiting until late in the offseason, when some teams are desperate for an upgrade and there are few attractive alternatives to his high-profile clients.
While the pool of potential suitors has shrunk, several destinations are still in play. Of course, some teams with vacancies in center probably aren't realistic possibilities: Bourn would improve teams like the New York Mets or Houston Astros as much as anyone, but those clubs are too strapped for cash or too far from competition to consider signing such a big-ticket item. Assuming he'll eventually land a five-year, $75 million deal in neighborhood of Upton's -- or at least a contract of equivalent annual value over fewer years -- the following three teams would both be able to afford Bourn and benefit most from his services.
1. Seattle Mariners
After inheriting a weak defensive team in 2008, Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik made it his mission to build a club that could catch the ball. The M's have been one of baseball's best defensive teams in every season since.
Incumbent center fielder Franklin Gutierrez was a vital part of Zduriencik's initial defensive makeover, but health problems have limited him to just 132 games over the past two seasons, and he could be a year away from free agency if Seattle doesn't exercise his $7.5 million option for 2014. While Bourn might have made an even bigger impact before the Mariners decided to move Safeco Field's fences in, the park should still play plenty big. Signing Bourn, sliding Gutierrez over to an outfield corner, and trading some of the team's surplus outfield parts for a starter would solve a lot of problems for Seattle.
Bourn would also bring some on-base ability to the top of an order that's sorely in need of anyone who can avoid making outs: Mariners leadoff batters (mostly Dustin Ackley) managed only a .281 OBP last season, by far the lowest of any AL team. The M's have largely been linked to hitters who would have improved their power output, like Josh Hamilton and Nick Swisher, but putting more men on base would go a long way toward curbing their offensive ineptitude. Improving their performance after they reach base wouldn't hurt, either: the Mariners were the AL's second worst baserunning team in 2012, at more than eight runs below average. Bourn, who led the majors with 11.7 baserunning runs last season, could have put them in the black by himself.
The AL West is deep, but we saw the A's come out of nowhere to contend in 2012. The Mariners have a similar level of pitching talent in their system and could surprise some folks with a little bit more offensive output.
2. Texas Rangers
Texas has been one of the least active contending teams this winter, but not for lack of trying: the Rangers have expressed interest in nearly every top free agent and trade target, but they haven't inked anyone more expensive than A.J. Pierzynski. Meanwhile, the division-rival Angels have raided the Rangers' roster for Josh Hamilton, leaving Texas in a tenuous position for 2013 unless the team makes another move. On Wednesday afternoon, Rangers GM Jon Daniels admitted "There's a decent chance we'll look to add somebody," and that somebody might be Bourn.
The addition of Bourn would do nothing to replace the home runs the Rangers lost when Hamilton and Mike Napoli left, but runs prevented are about as beneficial as runs scored, and what Bourn lacks in extra-base power he makes up with his ability to deprive opposing players of hits. Texas had a middle-of-the-pack defense last season, and Bourn's elite play in center would help address that deficiency.
The biggest obstacle for Boras might be that Texas already has two speed-and-defense-oriented center fielders in Leonys Martin and Craig Gentry, who could platoon in center and provide a decent approximation of Bourn's value for a fraction of the price. Daniels might not consider the difference between Bourn and his in-house options worth the premium he'd have to pay.
3. Chicago Cubs
The Cubs make less sense as suitors for Bourn than the other two teams, but they haven't hesitated to spend this winter. And not only did they speak to Boras about Bourn early in the offseason, their center-field situation is something of a cipher.
The Cubs' current center-field depth chart is topped by David DeJesus, who hasn't played center as his primary position since 2007; prospect Brett Jackson will start the season in Triple-A after his ugly 2012 debut, and he's far from a sure thing. After signing Nate Schierholtz, Chicago might need to trade Alfonso Soriano to make room for Bourn, but a Soriano trade has long been on their agenda anyway.
Although they might still be a year or two away from contention, the Cubs have been aggressive on the free-agent market, and they showed they weren't unwilling to make a multiyear commitment when they locked up Edwin Jackson. It's a long shot, but if Bourn's asking price falls far enough, it wouldn't be out of character for Theo Epstein to try to take advantage of a down market.
It's possible that another team could get involved in the Bourn bidding, but it would likely require a trade, a position switch or a dramatic reduction in the outfielder's demands. The Los Angeles Dodgers and Boston Red Sox have reportedly toyed with the idea of trading Andre Ethier and Jacoby Ellsbury, respectively, which could free up space for Bourn in Boston.
The Phillies have been tied to Bourn despite their trade for Ben Revere, who's a natural fit for center. Dealing for Revere only to consign him to a corner wouldn't seem to make much sense, but it's never wise to bet against Ruben Amaro making a splash.
Maybe the Blue Jays, who've already signed or traded for a roster's worth of stars this offseason, could throw caution to the winds and bench or trade the disappointing Colby Rasmus in favor of Bourn. The Jays haven't been rumored as a destination for Bourn, but signing him wouldn't be the first major move Alex Anthopoulos has made without warning. It might sound far-fetched, but aside from Seattle or Texas, there are few natural fits for Bourn -- which helps to explain why he's still looking for work this later in the winter.
Hanrahan a minor upgrade at minor cost.
The Pittsburgh Pirates completed a trade with the Boston Red Sox on Wednesday featuring closer Joel Hanrahan, but they really should have moved Hanrahan sooner, preferably last offseason, because a Proven Closer[emoji]8482[/emoji] is a luxury on a below-.500 club and will usually have more value in trade than he can deliver to a bad team over 70 innings. Hanrahan compounded the error of the non-move by having a terrible season, posting his worst walk rate since 2007 while allowing 8 homers in just 59 innings, and he now has just one year of control left but will earn $6-7 million because of the way the arbitration process overvalues saves. That's not a particularly valuable asset to put on the market.
The result for Pittsburgh is that they get a passel of suspects with only one guy in the group who might turn out to be an above-average player, and even that player, Stolmy Pimentel, is a real longshot. Pimentel has touched 96 mph with his fastball from time to time and shows an above-average changeup, but the lack of an average breaking ball and well below-average fastball command (despite a good delivery) have really held back his performance at Double-A; he repeated the level in 2012 and improved to a 4.59 ERA and a 17 percent strikeout rate. He could turn into a solid big-league starter, and he's exactly the kind of longshot prospect the Pirates should try to get in any trade, but when he's the most interesting asset coming back to you it's not a great statement about your overall return.
I doubt Red Sox fans will be sorry to see Mark Melancon go, but he'll almost certainly pitch better in 2013 as he returns to one of the majors' weakest divisions and one would assume isn't as unlucky as he was this past season when he had an absurd 22.2 percent HR/FB rate. Lefties destroy him because he lacks a solid changeup, and his ground ball rate dropped as he became more homer-prone against the better competition in the American League East, largely due to the lack of life on his four-seamer. He's a capable middle reliever who's been miscast as a closer because of his stuff (not because he lacks the mojo or woo or whatever).
Jerry Sands is probably a bench player at best, a right-handed hitter with raw power but fringy bat speed, poor recognition of off-speed stuff and the range only for first base. Ivan De Jesus, who like Sands was acquired from the Los Angeles Dodgers in the Adrian Gonzalez trade, might surface as a utility infielder, but a lack of patience, power or overall effort on the field all hold him back, and he didn't even perform well in the hitter's paradise of Triple-A Albuquerque while in the Dodgers' organization.
The Red Sox get that Proven Closer[emoji]8482[/emoji], which isn't exactly something they needed but perhaps is something they felt they had to have before Andrew Bailey ruined their summah. The gap between Hanrahan's pre-2012 self and Mark Melancon's form in Boston might be two full wins, but if Hanrahan pitches like he did this past season, the gain is minimal, and the Sox will be back on the market for another Proven Closer[emoji]8482[/emoji] next winter -- good thing for them that closers are made, not born.
I was surprised to see infielder Brock Holt included in the deal as the other piece headed to Boston; he's probably a utility guy but does have a great history of hitting for average and high contact rates in the minors, enough that some below-average team should give him regular at bats at second base to see if he can be above replacement-level while he's still cheap. So while the Red Sox didn't get any impact in return, they also didn't give up a whole lot, and if Hanrahan rediscovers his 2010-11 form they'll at least get a little more production in the ninth inning than they did last year.
The result for Pittsburgh is that they get a passel of suspects with only one guy in the group who might turn out to be an above-average player, and even that player, Stolmy Pimentel, is a real longshot. Pimentel has touched 96 mph with his fastball from time to time and shows an above-average changeup, but the lack of an average breaking ball and well below-average fastball command (despite a good delivery) have really held back his performance at Double-A; he repeated the level in 2012 and improved to a 4.59 ERA and a 17 percent strikeout rate. He could turn into a solid big-league starter, and he's exactly the kind of longshot prospect the Pirates should try to get in any trade, but when he's the most interesting asset coming back to you it's not a great statement about your overall return.
I doubt Red Sox fans will be sorry to see Mark Melancon go, but he'll almost certainly pitch better in 2013 as he returns to one of the majors' weakest divisions and one would assume isn't as unlucky as he was this past season when he had an absurd 22.2 percent HR/FB rate. Lefties destroy him because he lacks a solid changeup, and his ground ball rate dropped as he became more homer-prone against the better competition in the American League East, largely due to the lack of life on his four-seamer. He's a capable middle reliever who's been miscast as a closer because of his stuff (not because he lacks the mojo or woo or whatever).
Jerry Sands is probably a bench player at best, a right-handed hitter with raw power but fringy bat speed, poor recognition of off-speed stuff and the range only for first base. Ivan De Jesus, who like Sands was acquired from the Los Angeles Dodgers in the Adrian Gonzalez trade, might surface as a utility infielder, but a lack of patience, power or overall effort on the field all hold him back, and he didn't even perform well in the hitter's paradise of Triple-A Albuquerque while in the Dodgers' organization.
The Red Sox get that Proven Closer[emoji]8482[/emoji], which isn't exactly something they needed but perhaps is something they felt they had to have before Andrew Bailey ruined their summah. The gap between Hanrahan's pre-2012 self and Mark Melancon's form in Boston might be two full wins, but if Hanrahan pitches like he did this past season, the gain is minimal, and the Sox will be back on the market for another Proven Closer[emoji]8482[/emoji] next winter -- good thing for them that closers are made, not born.
I was surprised to see infielder Brock Holt included in the deal as the other piece headed to Boston; he's probably a utility guy but does have a great history of hitting for average and high contact rates in the minors, enough that some below-average team should give him regular at bats at second base to see if he can be above replacement-level while he's still cheap. So while the Red Sox didn't get any impact in return, they also didn't give up a whole lot, and if Hanrahan rediscovers his 2010-11 form they'll at least get a little more production in the ninth inning than they did last year.
The biggest storylines of 2013.
As we count down the last days of 2012 armed with eggnog, here's a look ahead to the biggest storylines of 2013:
1. The fate of the '13 Los Angeles Dodgers
The new ownership group took over with a vengeance, investing $650 million in player-acquisition cost in its first seven months and immediately changing a reputation sullied by former owner Frank McCourt. The Dodgers made the richest in-season trade in major league history, with the Red Sox deal that netted them Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford and Josh Beckett, before making Zack Greinke the highest-paid right-handed pitcher ever. The Dodgers are spending (or investing, depending on your point of view) so rampantly that some agents wonder whether they'll sign Michael Bourn and trade Andre Ethier -- whom they just signed this past spring to a whopping five-year, $85 million deal -- in an effort to glean a defensive upgrade.
As soon as the season begins, however, the Dodgers will face exceptional scrutiny and pressure as much as the Phillies did after they landed Cliff Lee. The new standard for the Dodgers is easily stated: World Series or bust. Manager Don Mattingly has already spoken of expectations that could be unfair to the players.
For all the money spent, however, the Dodgers could have fundamental issues, especially on the left side of their infield. And, by the way, the defending World Series champions happen to reside in their division.
2. The Hall of Fame collides head on with the steroids era
I get emails all the time written along the lines of, "The writers are the only ones who care about this issue; nobody else cares." I can promise you this: A whole lot of sports fans care, based on the responses I get on Twitter and email, and they have a very strong point of view, ranging from Throw The Cheating Bums Out, to What Will We Tell Our Children If Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens Get into The Hall, to Let 'Em In Because The Whole Era Was Infested. The results of this year's voting will be announced in two weeks, and although it's been taken as a fait accompli for a while that Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Sammy Sosa won't get in, the baseball world will go nuts with debate as the meaning of the final tally is dissected -- a debate that will go on for the foreseeable future.
3. The wild, wild AL West
The Angels ripped Josh Hamilton away from the Rangers, and the Rangers will go into spring training with a leaner lineup -- but perhaps a little hungrier and with something to prove under the leadership of Adrian Beltre, after the disappointing finish of 2012. Three years ago, Mike Scioscia was widely regarded as the most powerful manager in the game, and if the Angels struggle, his job could be in jeopardy, depending on the sometimes volatile whims of owner Arte Moreno.
What's almost always forgotten, of course, is that the defending champions of this division are the Oakland Athletics, who won 68 of their final 91 games last season. This would appear to be the best and most interesting race of the upcoming summer.
4. Trout and Harper, Harper and Trout
Bryce Harper accomplished things that we've never seen out of any 19-year-old player, and he did so while adjusting on the fly to the reality that pitchers are already determined to throw him anything but a fastball out of fear for what he can do to a fastball. Only the notoriously free-swinging Alfonso Soriano and Hamilton saw a lower percentage of fastballs than Harper.
At age 20, Trout had a season we have never seen out of any player, using his simple swing, power and speed to change the definition of what is possible at that age. He is already regarded by general managers as the sport's best overall player; could he actually get better? Could he move into the Babe Ruth-Barry Bonds neighborhood in single-season WAR?
Either way, it'll be fun to see him try.
[+] Enlarge
Al Messerschmidt/Getty Images
Alex Anthopoulos has been busy, and the Jays are now favorites.
5. Toronto goes all in
The Red Sox were the winners of the 2010-11 offseason ... and they didn't make the playoffs in 2011. The most-talked-about teams of last winter were the Marlins and the Angels, and they didn't make the playoffs in 2012.
Now the Blue Jays are center stage as the winners of the winter after jumping in big and adding R.A. Dickey, Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle and others -- at a time when the traditional AL East money powers aren't in a position of dominance. The Yankees are being much more conservative and aiming toward a budget of $189 million for 2014, and the Red Sox are retooling.
The Jays are the current Las Vegas favorites to win the World Series, which has proved to be a dubious distinction in recent years.
6. The replay of instant replay
There are degrees of frustration beginning to take hold among some teams that support more use of instant replay. The folks in charge of the development of replay have reported that details must be worked out before MLB can implement changes, because the camera angles in all parks are not uniform, and other issues. Some team officials believe that MLB should worry less about refining a perfect system and worry more about the big picture and the overriding effort to get as many calls right as possible, when possible.
But, as colleague Jayson Stark has reported, the additional layers of instant replay may not go into effect for the start of the upcoming season. In lieu of changes, there will be replays of umpires missing calls -- and the never-ending discussion of what should be done. Quietly, some officials will seethe at the sport's slow pace of change.
7. The David Price sweepstakes
Price's salary will skyrocket this winter, in his first year of arbitration eligibility, following a Cy Young Award-winning season -- and the presumption among rival executives is that Tampa Bay will be forced to trade him sometime before next Christmas. Maybe the deal will happen before the July 31 trade deadline, maybe sometime after the season. But the Rays can't keep him long-term, considering that the next long-term deal he signs will be worth something in the range of $150 million to $200 million. If they want to recoup trade value for him, the best time to trade him will be before the start of the 2014 season. When he hits the market, the baseball world will revolve around the left-hander.
8. Robinson Cano's free agency meets Yankees' austerity
The second baseman is one of the pre-eminent players in baseball, and he'll be a free agent in the fall, right in the middle of his prime. But as the Yankees prepare for what is expected to be Cano's Alex Rodriguez-like contract demand, they are dealing firsthand with the cautionary tale of Rodriguez, whose days as a star player appear to be over at age 37. Cano will turn 31 next October: Should the Yankees pay him when he hits the market next fall? Will they pay him? We'll see.
Jim McIsaac/Getty Images
How quickly Jeter has full range in the field could help determine hitting milestones.
9. Milestones
Derek Jeter had an incredible 216 hits last season, at age 38, finishing the year with 3,304 for his career. If he adds 180 more this season, he'll pass Eddie Collins (3,315), Paul Molitor (3,319), Carl Yastrzemski (3,419), Honus Wagner (3,420) and Cap Anson (3,435) -- and that would put him sixth on the all time hit list. The top five: Pete Rose (4,256), Ty Cobb (4,189), Hank Aaron (3,771), Stan Musial (3,630) and Tris Speaker (3,514).
Alex Rodriguez is 99 hits from 3,000, a milestone probably out of reach in 2013 as he comes back from major hip surgery. Next-closest to 3,000 hits among active players: Ichiro, with 2,606. Rodriguez is 13 home runs from Willie Mays' 660, which ranks fourth all time.
Albert Pujols needs 25 homers to reach 500 for his career. Roy Halladay (199 career wins), Tim Hudson (197) and CC Sabathia (191) are all on the verge of 200 career victories. Johan Santana needs 12 more strikeouts for 2,000 in his career.
10. San Francisco dynasty?
The Giants have never had the look of a juggernaut, a lineup that easily spits out runs and blowouts and crushes other teams. But they do have one of the best players in the majors in Buster Posey, a consistently excellent pitching staff and one of the best home-field advantages in the sport. If San Francisco were to win another championship in 2013, that would be three in four years for the Giants -- which would probably cement manager Bruce Bochy's future place in the Hall of Fame.
11. The end of Mariano Rivera's storied career? Last summer, Chipper Jones got to take the victory lap, being honored in every NL park. If Mariano Rivera announces his impending retirement at any point, he'll be treated similarly. He is to baseball history what Jerry Rice was to NFL history: the best at what he's done, by far.
Others
Can the Nationals get over the hump, aided by a fuller season of Stephen Strasburg? Can the Tigers -- judged by some rival officials as the most improved club of the winter -- take the next step to getting the championship that Detroit owner Mike Ilitch has pursued with such determination? Will Shin-Soo Choo be the piece who helps the Reds advance in the playoffs -- and will Aroldis Chapman make a smooth transition to the rotation? What will the post-Chipper Braves look like? After an offseason in which no general managers were replaced, will there be massive GM turnover next year?
Moves, deals and decisions
" Scott Kazmir is grateful for another shot at the big leagues, writes Brian Smith.
1. The fate of the '13 Los Angeles Dodgers
The new ownership group took over with a vengeance, investing $650 million in player-acquisition cost in its first seven months and immediately changing a reputation sullied by former owner Frank McCourt. The Dodgers made the richest in-season trade in major league history, with the Red Sox deal that netted them Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford and Josh Beckett, before making Zack Greinke the highest-paid right-handed pitcher ever. The Dodgers are spending (or investing, depending on your point of view) so rampantly that some agents wonder whether they'll sign Michael Bourn and trade Andre Ethier -- whom they just signed this past spring to a whopping five-year, $85 million deal -- in an effort to glean a defensive upgrade.
As soon as the season begins, however, the Dodgers will face exceptional scrutiny and pressure as much as the Phillies did after they landed Cliff Lee. The new standard for the Dodgers is easily stated: World Series or bust. Manager Don Mattingly has already spoken of expectations that could be unfair to the players.
For all the money spent, however, the Dodgers could have fundamental issues, especially on the left side of their infield. And, by the way, the defending World Series champions happen to reside in their division.
2. The Hall of Fame collides head on with the steroids era
I get emails all the time written along the lines of, "The writers are the only ones who care about this issue; nobody else cares." I can promise you this: A whole lot of sports fans care, based on the responses I get on Twitter and email, and they have a very strong point of view, ranging from Throw The Cheating Bums Out, to What Will We Tell Our Children If Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens Get into The Hall, to Let 'Em In Because The Whole Era Was Infested. The results of this year's voting will be announced in two weeks, and although it's been taken as a fait accompli for a while that Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Sammy Sosa won't get in, the baseball world will go nuts with debate as the meaning of the final tally is dissected -- a debate that will go on for the foreseeable future.
3. The wild, wild AL West
The Angels ripped Josh Hamilton away from the Rangers, and the Rangers will go into spring training with a leaner lineup -- but perhaps a little hungrier and with something to prove under the leadership of Adrian Beltre, after the disappointing finish of 2012. Three years ago, Mike Scioscia was widely regarded as the most powerful manager in the game, and if the Angels struggle, his job could be in jeopardy, depending on the sometimes volatile whims of owner Arte Moreno.
What's almost always forgotten, of course, is that the defending champions of this division are the Oakland Athletics, who won 68 of their final 91 games last season. This would appear to be the best and most interesting race of the upcoming summer.
4. Trout and Harper, Harper and Trout
Bryce Harper accomplished things that we've never seen out of any 19-year-old player, and he did so while adjusting on the fly to the reality that pitchers are already determined to throw him anything but a fastball out of fear for what he can do to a fastball. Only the notoriously free-swinging Alfonso Soriano and Hamilton saw a lower percentage of fastballs than Harper.
At age 20, Trout had a season we have never seen out of any player, using his simple swing, power and speed to change the definition of what is possible at that age. He is already regarded by general managers as the sport's best overall player; could he actually get better? Could he move into the Babe Ruth-Barry Bonds neighborhood in single-season WAR?
Either way, it'll be fun to see him try.
[+] Enlarge
Al Messerschmidt/Getty Images
Alex Anthopoulos has been busy, and the Jays are now favorites.
5. Toronto goes all in
The Red Sox were the winners of the 2010-11 offseason ... and they didn't make the playoffs in 2011. The most-talked-about teams of last winter were the Marlins and the Angels, and they didn't make the playoffs in 2012.
Now the Blue Jays are center stage as the winners of the winter after jumping in big and adding R.A. Dickey, Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle and others -- at a time when the traditional AL East money powers aren't in a position of dominance. The Yankees are being much more conservative and aiming toward a budget of $189 million for 2014, and the Red Sox are retooling.
The Jays are the current Las Vegas favorites to win the World Series, which has proved to be a dubious distinction in recent years.
6. The replay of instant replay
There are degrees of frustration beginning to take hold among some teams that support more use of instant replay. The folks in charge of the development of replay have reported that details must be worked out before MLB can implement changes, because the camera angles in all parks are not uniform, and other issues. Some team officials believe that MLB should worry less about refining a perfect system and worry more about the big picture and the overriding effort to get as many calls right as possible, when possible.
But, as colleague Jayson Stark has reported, the additional layers of instant replay may not go into effect for the start of the upcoming season. In lieu of changes, there will be replays of umpires missing calls -- and the never-ending discussion of what should be done. Quietly, some officials will seethe at the sport's slow pace of change.
7. The David Price sweepstakes
Price's salary will skyrocket this winter, in his first year of arbitration eligibility, following a Cy Young Award-winning season -- and the presumption among rival executives is that Tampa Bay will be forced to trade him sometime before next Christmas. Maybe the deal will happen before the July 31 trade deadline, maybe sometime after the season. But the Rays can't keep him long-term, considering that the next long-term deal he signs will be worth something in the range of $150 million to $200 million. If they want to recoup trade value for him, the best time to trade him will be before the start of the 2014 season. When he hits the market, the baseball world will revolve around the left-hander.
8. Robinson Cano's free agency meets Yankees' austerity
The second baseman is one of the pre-eminent players in baseball, and he'll be a free agent in the fall, right in the middle of his prime. But as the Yankees prepare for what is expected to be Cano's Alex Rodriguez-like contract demand, they are dealing firsthand with the cautionary tale of Rodriguez, whose days as a star player appear to be over at age 37. Cano will turn 31 next October: Should the Yankees pay him when he hits the market next fall? Will they pay him? We'll see.
Jim McIsaac/Getty Images
How quickly Jeter has full range in the field could help determine hitting milestones.
9. Milestones
Derek Jeter had an incredible 216 hits last season, at age 38, finishing the year with 3,304 for his career. If he adds 180 more this season, he'll pass Eddie Collins (3,315), Paul Molitor (3,319), Carl Yastrzemski (3,419), Honus Wagner (3,420) and Cap Anson (3,435) -- and that would put him sixth on the all time hit list. The top five: Pete Rose (4,256), Ty Cobb (4,189), Hank Aaron (3,771), Stan Musial (3,630) and Tris Speaker (3,514).
Alex Rodriguez is 99 hits from 3,000, a milestone probably out of reach in 2013 as he comes back from major hip surgery. Next-closest to 3,000 hits among active players: Ichiro, with 2,606. Rodriguez is 13 home runs from Willie Mays' 660, which ranks fourth all time.
Albert Pujols needs 25 homers to reach 500 for his career. Roy Halladay (199 career wins), Tim Hudson (197) and CC Sabathia (191) are all on the verge of 200 career victories. Johan Santana needs 12 more strikeouts for 2,000 in his career.
10. San Francisco dynasty?
The Giants have never had the look of a juggernaut, a lineup that easily spits out runs and blowouts and crushes other teams. But they do have one of the best players in the majors in Buster Posey, a consistently excellent pitching staff and one of the best home-field advantages in the sport. If San Francisco were to win another championship in 2013, that would be three in four years for the Giants -- which would probably cement manager Bruce Bochy's future place in the Hall of Fame.
11. The end of Mariano Rivera's storied career? Last summer, Chipper Jones got to take the victory lap, being honored in every NL park. If Mariano Rivera announces his impending retirement at any point, he'll be treated similarly. He is to baseball history what Jerry Rice was to NFL history: the best at what he's done, by far.
Others
Can the Nationals get over the hump, aided by a fuller season of Stephen Strasburg? Can the Tigers -- judged by some rival officials as the most improved club of the winter -- take the next step to getting the championship that Detroit owner Mike Ilitch has pursued with such determination? Will Shin-Soo Choo be the piece who helps the Reds advance in the playoffs -- and will Aroldis Chapman make a smooth transition to the rotation? What will the post-Chipper Braves look like? After an offseason in which no general managers were replaced, will there be massive GM turnover next year?
Moves, deals and decisions
" Scott Kazmir is grateful for another shot at the big leagues, writes Brian Smith.
Youngsters who will bounce back.
One of the hardest labels for a young player to shake is that of disappointment. Even Hall of Famers, such as Roberto Clemente and Lou Brock, were generally considered to be underachievers early in their careers. When it comes to talented players in their early 20s, fans tend to expect a bumpless road to stardom, but reality is seldom that neat and tidy.
Some of baseball's young stars did live up to their hype and reputation in 2012, most notably excellent seasons from shoulda-been-MVP Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, and Stephen Strasburg. But inevitably, not all of baseball's most talented younger players excelled in 2012 and like many players before them, will seek to shed the mark of disappointment in 2013. With nearly a foot of snow in my driveway taunting me into exertion -- and I'm certainly not alone -- this is a good time to make some predictions about which of 2012's young flops will have warmer 2013s.
Justin Upton, RF, age 25
If you want to single out a player as an example of how fickle the expectations game is, you can't do much better than Upton. After a .289/.369/.529, 5.7 WAR, 141 OPS+ season that netted Upton a fourth-place finish in the 2011 NL MVP voting, people were very quick to assume that Upton had finally cemented a place in superstardom. The idea that Upton would fail to match or improve on his age-23 season wasn't a very popular one last winter. The ZiPS projection system pegged Upton dropping down to a still-excellent 128 OPS+ in 2012 and, at least from the results in my inbox, one of the more controversial projections.
Turned out that Upton's fans and ZiPS both missed high. Upton's OPS+ tallied in at 107, well below any projection I can find for 2012. In three months' time, Upton went from the centerpiece of Arizona's lineup to perhaps the most notable trade target in July. Upton remains a Diamondback, but you still can't go an entire day without a new rumor about his next uniform circulating.
When you hit .280/.355/.430 in your terrible, horrible, no good, very bad season, chances are you still have a lot going for you. Upton's very nearly been written off, but he remains a young player, with some history of pretty good success, signed for three years and $38.5 million, a reasonable deal when you consider the final two years buy out what would be free agency.
ZiPS pegs Upton to recover to a 24-homer, 3.4 WAR year in 2013 and that's not a projection I can quibble with. He's still young enough to have upside to significantly beat that projection. Even if 2011 remains his only superstar year, I'd rather have an underperforming star than an overperforming scrub.
Eric Hosmer, 1B, age 23
Hosmer was a trendy pick to have a breakout season in 2012. That didn't happen. Many people saw his solid 2011 debut, at age 21, as a sign of bigger things to come (myself included), but Hosmer hit a woeful .232/.304/.359. He finished the season as poorly as he started it, hitting .179/.264/.295 in September.
Luckily, as he's just turned 23, it's way too early to throw in the towel on Hosmer. While I disagree with most things the Kansas City Royals do, nobody can claim that they didn't show faith in Hosmer this year, keeping him in the lineup and letting him take his lumps, despite his essentially hitting like a minor leaguer for great stretches of the season. And if the Royals didn't still have faith in him it would have been harder for them to justify shifting into win-now mode by trading top prospect Wil Myers in a deal for James Shields and Wade Davis.
Even in a terrible season, there were some encouraging signs in Hosmer's performance. His contact numbers and line drive percentage didn't drop off in 2012, so it's not a case of him being just overmatched, and a .255 batting average on balls in play isn't likely to be repeated going forward. ZiPS has him hitting .273/.336/.435, a perfectly good bounceback. I think he'll be even better and wouldn't be shocked at all if he returned to the .300 mark.
Dustin Ackley, 2B, age 24
Like Eric Hosmer, the BABIP gods weren't kind to Dustin Ackley in 2012, his .265 figure being more akin to what you'd see from a 40-year-old slugger with bum knees and a bad back. Safeco Field, a notoriously difficult park to hit in, certainly didn't help matters for Ackley, but considering the fact that he hit .224/.293/.365 on the road, he can't completely blame the pitcher's paradise for 2012.
Still, Ackley has an excellent pedigree, is still fairly young, and though Safeco will always put a damper on his statistics he's a versatile enough hitter that the park generally won't hurt him as much as a right-handed power hitter like Jesus Montero. Don't forget about Ackley's left ankle, which caused him a great deal of trouble this year, certainly not helping a swing that looked increasingly awkward as the season went on. This has been a consistent problem for Ackley, but he had a bone spur that had been long troubling him removed in October, and is expected to suffer no long-term consequences.
ZiPS has Ackley at .247/.322/.373, 3.3 WAR, and the best Mariners position player in 2013. I agree but I think he has more power upside than the computer does, though even with the Safeco fences moved in, the majority of his homers will be on the road.
Brett Lawrie, 3B, age 22
Like Ackley, Lawrie also had his second season in the majors marred by nagging injuries. After missing time in spring training due to a problematic groin, Lawrie was hitting .290/.336/.424 through the middle of June and continuing to play better defense than his scouting reports thought he would. Then came the parade of aches and pains, with Lawrie missing time with knee soreness, lower back pain, a calf injury sustained after slamming into a railing going after a foul ball, and an oblique injury that ruined his August. (While I've never had an oblique injury, I expect feeling like someone punched you in the gut probably has at least a minor effect on your power.)
It's too early to call Lawrie injury-prone, so I'm very optimistic about his 2013 season. ZiPS has him at a .275/.332/.461, 4.1 WAR mean projection for next year, essentially All-Star level performance. It's not hard to see why, considering Lawrie hit 27 homers between Triple-A and the majors at age 21.
Ivan Nova, RHP, age 25
Going into 2012, the New York Yankees looked to have the fourth- and fifth-place finishers in 2011's AL Rookie of the Year voting in their rotation. However, one of them, Michael Pineda, didn't even make it to April, and the other, Nova, followed up a 16-4, 3.70 rookie campaign with an ERA a hair above 5 and didn't even make the postseason roster.
While I'd be skeptical about putting money down betting on a complete recovery from Pineda any time soon -- the words "shoulder" and "surgery" being a frightening combination in any sentence about a pitcher -- I'm considerably more optimistic about Nova.
He's been a maddening pitcher to project so far in his career, but looking at him, all the pieces have been there for him to be a dependable No. 2 starter. Above-average fastball velocity? Check. Keeps the ball down and in the park? Check. Misses bats? Check. Decent control? Check. Slider with mean bite? Check.
The problem with Nova is that he's yet to do all of these things simultaneously. Going from 5.3 K/9 to 8.1 K/9, as he did from 2011 to 2012, is generally a marvelous thing for pitchers, but Nova went from outperforming his peripheral numbers to underperforming, and even when striking out more batters, did a lot of things wrong that he didn't in 2011. The fastball stayed up too often, resulting in his putting on impromptu home run derbies for weeks at a time. His slider still had occasional sharpness, but also long runs when it was about as exciting as boiled celery.
Nova missed some time due to shoulder soreness and came back with a more compact windup. He looked good in his return game against the Rays, but failed to make it through five innings in his final two starts of the season, when the Yankees were trying to put away the O's.
ZiPS is pessimistic about Nova given his struggles last year, pegging him at a 4.83 ERA, but my gut says he beats that by at least a half-run. Now, my gut also tells me to eat way too many buffalo wings, but I remain intrigued by Nova despite his recent struggles. At various times, he's shown the ingredients of being a terrific pitcher. The Yankees have so far stuck to their self-imposed salary cap, so the team will give him every chance to put things together in 2013. I think he will.
Some of baseball's young stars did live up to their hype and reputation in 2012, most notably excellent seasons from shoulda-been-MVP Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, and Stephen Strasburg. But inevitably, not all of baseball's most talented younger players excelled in 2012 and like many players before them, will seek to shed the mark of disappointment in 2013. With nearly a foot of snow in my driveway taunting me into exertion -- and I'm certainly not alone -- this is a good time to make some predictions about which of 2012's young flops will have warmer 2013s.
Justin Upton, RF, age 25
If you want to single out a player as an example of how fickle the expectations game is, you can't do much better than Upton. After a .289/.369/.529, 5.7 WAR, 141 OPS+ season that netted Upton a fourth-place finish in the 2011 NL MVP voting, people were very quick to assume that Upton had finally cemented a place in superstardom. The idea that Upton would fail to match or improve on his age-23 season wasn't a very popular one last winter. The ZiPS projection system pegged Upton dropping down to a still-excellent 128 OPS+ in 2012 and, at least from the results in my inbox, one of the more controversial projections.
Turned out that Upton's fans and ZiPS both missed high. Upton's OPS+ tallied in at 107, well below any projection I can find for 2012. In three months' time, Upton went from the centerpiece of Arizona's lineup to perhaps the most notable trade target in July. Upton remains a Diamondback, but you still can't go an entire day without a new rumor about his next uniform circulating.
When you hit .280/.355/.430 in your terrible, horrible, no good, very bad season, chances are you still have a lot going for you. Upton's very nearly been written off, but he remains a young player, with some history of pretty good success, signed for three years and $38.5 million, a reasonable deal when you consider the final two years buy out what would be free agency.
ZiPS pegs Upton to recover to a 24-homer, 3.4 WAR year in 2013 and that's not a projection I can quibble with. He's still young enough to have upside to significantly beat that projection. Even if 2011 remains his only superstar year, I'd rather have an underperforming star than an overperforming scrub.
Eric Hosmer, 1B, age 23
Hosmer was a trendy pick to have a breakout season in 2012. That didn't happen. Many people saw his solid 2011 debut, at age 21, as a sign of bigger things to come (myself included), but Hosmer hit a woeful .232/.304/.359. He finished the season as poorly as he started it, hitting .179/.264/.295 in September.
Luckily, as he's just turned 23, it's way too early to throw in the towel on Hosmer. While I disagree with most things the Kansas City Royals do, nobody can claim that they didn't show faith in Hosmer this year, keeping him in the lineup and letting him take his lumps, despite his essentially hitting like a minor leaguer for great stretches of the season. And if the Royals didn't still have faith in him it would have been harder for them to justify shifting into win-now mode by trading top prospect Wil Myers in a deal for James Shields and Wade Davis.
Even in a terrible season, there were some encouraging signs in Hosmer's performance. His contact numbers and line drive percentage didn't drop off in 2012, so it's not a case of him being just overmatched, and a .255 batting average on balls in play isn't likely to be repeated going forward. ZiPS has him hitting .273/.336/.435, a perfectly good bounceback. I think he'll be even better and wouldn't be shocked at all if he returned to the .300 mark.
Dustin Ackley, 2B, age 24
Like Eric Hosmer, the BABIP gods weren't kind to Dustin Ackley in 2012, his .265 figure being more akin to what you'd see from a 40-year-old slugger with bum knees and a bad back. Safeco Field, a notoriously difficult park to hit in, certainly didn't help matters for Ackley, but considering the fact that he hit .224/.293/.365 on the road, he can't completely blame the pitcher's paradise for 2012.
Still, Ackley has an excellent pedigree, is still fairly young, and though Safeco will always put a damper on his statistics he's a versatile enough hitter that the park generally won't hurt him as much as a right-handed power hitter like Jesus Montero. Don't forget about Ackley's left ankle, which caused him a great deal of trouble this year, certainly not helping a swing that looked increasingly awkward as the season went on. This has been a consistent problem for Ackley, but he had a bone spur that had been long troubling him removed in October, and is expected to suffer no long-term consequences.
ZiPS has Ackley at .247/.322/.373, 3.3 WAR, and the best Mariners position player in 2013. I agree but I think he has more power upside than the computer does, though even with the Safeco fences moved in, the majority of his homers will be on the road.
Brett Lawrie, 3B, age 22
Like Ackley, Lawrie also had his second season in the majors marred by nagging injuries. After missing time in spring training due to a problematic groin, Lawrie was hitting .290/.336/.424 through the middle of June and continuing to play better defense than his scouting reports thought he would. Then came the parade of aches and pains, with Lawrie missing time with knee soreness, lower back pain, a calf injury sustained after slamming into a railing going after a foul ball, and an oblique injury that ruined his August. (While I've never had an oblique injury, I expect feeling like someone punched you in the gut probably has at least a minor effect on your power.)
It's too early to call Lawrie injury-prone, so I'm very optimistic about his 2013 season. ZiPS has him at a .275/.332/.461, 4.1 WAR mean projection for next year, essentially All-Star level performance. It's not hard to see why, considering Lawrie hit 27 homers between Triple-A and the majors at age 21.
Ivan Nova, RHP, age 25
Going into 2012, the New York Yankees looked to have the fourth- and fifth-place finishers in 2011's AL Rookie of the Year voting in their rotation. However, one of them, Michael Pineda, didn't even make it to April, and the other, Nova, followed up a 16-4, 3.70 rookie campaign with an ERA a hair above 5 and didn't even make the postseason roster.
While I'd be skeptical about putting money down betting on a complete recovery from Pineda any time soon -- the words "shoulder" and "surgery" being a frightening combination in any sentence about a pitcher -- I'm considerably more optimistic about Nova.
He's been a maddening pitcher to project so far in his career, but looking at him, all the pieces have been there for him to be a dependable No. 2 starter. Above-average fastball velocity? Check. Keeps the ball down and in the park? Check. Misses bats? Check. Decent control? Check. Slider with mean bite? Check.
The problem with Nova is that he's yet to do all of these things simultaneously. Going from 5.3 K/9 to 8.1 K/9, as he did from 2011 to 2012, is generally a marvelous thing for pitchers, but Nova went from outperforming his peripheral numbers to underperforming, and even when striking out more batters, did a lot of things wrong that he didn't in 2011. The fastball stayed up too often, resulting in his putting on impromptu home run derbies for weeks at a time. His slider still had occasional sharpness, but also long runs when it was about as exciting as boiled celery.
Nova missed some time due to shoulder soreness and came back with a more compact windup. He looked good in his return game against the Rays, but failed to make it through five innings in his final two starts of the season, when the Yankees were trying to put away the O's.
ZiPS is pessimistic about Nova given his struggles last year, pegging him at a 4.83 ERA, but my gut says he beats that by at least a half-run. Now, my gut also tells me to eat way too many buffalo wings, but I remain intrigued by Nova despite his recent struggles. At various times, he's shown the ingredients of being a terrific pitcher. The Yankees have so far stuck to their self-imposed salary cap, so the team will give him every chance to put things together in 2013. I think he will.
White Sox are a sleeper team.
This winter, many American League teams have made headlines. We have heard a lot about the Los Angeles Angels' lineup, the Detroit Tigers' rotation, the Kansas City Royals and Toronto Blue Jays deciding to go all-in, the Tampa Bay Rays' prospect thievery, the Texas Rangers' missed chances, the New York Yankees' new budget and the Boston Red Sox's newfound love for mediocre 30-somethings. But few are talking about the Chicago White Sox, who may once again sneak up on people once the summer of 2013 heats up.
Let's start with the good. Last season, the White Sox had one of the better rotations in the game. Helmed by Chris Sale and Jake Peavy, the rotation posted a 98 FIP- that essentially tied them for ninth best in the game. Gavin Floyd and Jose Quintana held down the middle of the rotation, and Hector Santiago had a nice debut turn, as well.
But following a perfect game in his second start of the season, Philip Humber turned back into a pumpkin, as he posted a 7.21 ERA in his next 14 starts before being demoted. This season, Danks will be back to replace Humber, and he is the big key. He pitched his last game on May 19 of last year, and for the next two months White Sox fans heard constant updates on his expected return, before Danks and the team finally threw in the towel and he had surgery on his troublesome left shoulder in August. He is already throwing and should be without limitation in spring training, and should he rebound to the form he has flashed from 2008 to 2011, he will solidify the middle of the team's rotation. In Sale, Peavy, Danks, Floyd, Quintana and Santiago, Chicago could indeed have a very formidable rotation.
Of course, Floyd may not be around to help the group, as he has been mentioned frequently in trade rumors. The White Sox have made no secret of the fact they want to add a left-handed bat to their lineup, and they would do well to land a hitter like Jason Kubel, who they are reportedly interested in acquiring. Among position players only, Chicago's 98 wRC+ tied to rank a fairly mediocre 16th last season. The team received quality play from two of its three outfield spots, but Dayan Viciedo may just be the next Delmon Young -- a below-average baserunner and defender who is not capable of consistently being a league-average hitter. Last season, Viciedo generated just 0.5 WAR despite the fact he mashed 25 homers.
The middle of the diamond could use some work offensively, as well. The team has no choice but to count on a big rebound from Alexei Ramirez, who was a 4-WAR player as recently as 2011. But second base is another problem entirely. The team has drowned in the sea of ineptitude that is Gordon Beckham, and the last time the White Sox had a player post a 2-WAR season at the keystone was Tadahito Iguchi in 2005. It was for this reason that the Sox drafted Beckham with the eighth overall pick in the 2008 draft, but after 2,067 plate appearances of 85 wRC+ baseball, it's safe to say that Beckham is not the answer.
Brent Morel was similarly not the answer at third, but the team has salved that wound with the offseason acquisition of Jeff Keppinger. The three-year deal given to Keppinger may have been a bit rich, but desperate times call for desperate measures, and after watching Morel -- who has been even worse than Beckham, though it has been across a much smaller sample -- the ChiSox were probably plenty desperate. Keppinger is no one's idea of an All-Star, but in the past two seasons he has hit .301/.334/.408, which is far better than the .230/.274/.329 line Morel has posted in the same timeframe. If Keppinger holds his value, the upgrade should be worth at least two wins to the White Sox.
Elsewhere, the team has reason for optimism. The defense was mediocre overall last year, but it may improve with full seasons from Tyler Flowers and Jordan Danks. The White Sox wisely chose to not buy into the offensive improvement that A.J. Pierzynski showed in his age-35 season. After compiling a .138 ISO in the first 14 years of his career, Pierzynski suddenly posted a much more robust .223 mark in his walk year. That is unlikely to continue.
In Flowers, the team not only has a player who is projected to be a better hitter by Bill James, but also the better defender. Last season, Flowers was more than six runs better defensively than Pierzynski by one measure, and that was with Pierzynski playing three times as much. With more time, Flowers should be a huge asset, and could end up a top-10 catcher defensively.
Jordan Danks should also be an asset. He isn't much with the lumber, but if the team is not able to upgrade from Viciedo, one key will be removing him in the late innings for Jordan Danks. He has been branded as an elite defender coming up through the minors, and catches like this give us a window into that prowess.
The bullpen also has reasons for optimism. Closer Addison Reed pitched better than his 4.75 ERA of a year ago, and if he can get his strikeout numbers back closer to where they were in the minors, he should continue to improve. In addition, the Sox may have found a steal in Donnie Veal, whose mainly two-pitch mix (fastball and curveball) has thus far played much better in relief now that he has had some time to be groomed for the role. With improvements from Reed and a full season of Veal -- who didn't debut until after the All-Star break -- plus Nate Jones and veterans Matt Thornton and Jesse Crain, Chicago has a fairly solid conglomerate of no-name relievers.
The White Sox still need to upgrade second base and left field, and unfortunately may need to trade Floyd to do so (they can thank years of penny-pinching in the draft for that). But even without Floyd, the rotation should be a plus assuming John Danks returns to form, the defense and bullpen can be reasonably expected to improve and the hitting shouldn't be any worse than it was last year. If John Danks doesn't return to form and Floyd is traded, things could take a turn for the worse, but otherwise Chicago looks poised to once again sneak up on people. The White Sox haven't made any big splashes this offseason, but incremental improvements at catcher, third base and the bullpen, plus a solid return from John Danks should keep them in the pennant race all season.
It's odd to think of a team that won 85 games as a sleeper, but with Los Angeles, Detroit, Tampa and Toronto mounting up as legitimate contenders, the Royals trying to give it the old college try, and Baltimore, Oakland, New York and Texas looming, a sleeper is exactly what Chicago has become.
Let's start with the good. Last season, the White Sox had one of the better rotations in the game. Helmed by Chris Sale and Jake Peavy, the rotation posted a 98 FIP- that essentially tied them for ninth best in the game. Gavin Floyd and Jose Quintana held down the middle of the rotation, and Hector Santiago had a nice debut turn, as well.
But following a perfect game in his second start of the season, Philip Humber turned back into a pumpkin, as he posted a 7.21 ERA in his next 14 starts before being demoted. This season, Danks will be back to replace Humber, and he is the big key. He pitched his last game on May 19 of last year, and for the next two months White Sox fans heard constant updates on his expected return, before Danks and the team finally threw in the towel and he had surgery on his troublesome left shoulder in August. He is already throwing and should be without limitation in spring training, and should he rebound to the form he has flashed from 2008 to 2011, he will solidify the middle of the team's rotation. In Sale, Peavy, Danks, Floyd, Quintana and Santiago, Chicago could indeed have a very formidable rotation.
Of course, Floyd may not be around to help the group, as he has been mentioned frequently in trade rumors. The White Sox have made no secret of the fact they want to add a left-handed bat to their lineup, and they would do well to land a hitter like Jason Kubel, who they are reportedly interested in acquiring. Among position players only, Chicago's 98 wRC+ tied to rank a fairly mediocre 16th last season. The team received quality play from two of its three outfield spots, but Dayan Viciedo may just be the next Delmon Young -- a below-average baserunner and defender who is not capable of consistently being a league-average hitter. Last season, Viciedo generated just 0.5 WAR despite the fact he mashed 25 homers.
The middle of the diamond could use some work offensively, as well. The team has no choice but to count on a big rebound from Alexei Ramirez, who was a 4-WAR player as recently as 2011. But second base is another problem entirely. The team has drowned in the sea of ineptitude that is Gordon Beckham, and the last time the White Sox had a player post a 2-WAR season at the keystone was Tadahito Iguchi in 2005. It was for this reason that the Sox drafted Beckham with the eighth overall pick in the 2008 draft, but after 2,067 plate appearances of 85 wRC+ baseball, it's safe to say that Beckham is not the answer.
Brent Morel was similarly not the answer at third, but the team has salved that wound with the offseason acquisition of Jeff Keppinger. The three-year deal given to Keppinger may have been a bit rich, but desperate times call for desperate measures, and after watching Morel -- who has been even worse than Beckham, though it has been across a much smaller sample -- the ChiSox were probably plenty desperate. Keppinger is no one's idea of an All-Star, but in the past two seasons he has hit .301/.334/.408, which is far better than the .230/.274/.329 line Morel has posted in the same timeframe. If Keppinger holds his value, the upgrade should be worth at least two wins to the White Sox.
Elsewhere, the team has reason for optimism. The defense was mediocre overall last year, but it may improve with full seasons from Tyler Flowers and Jordan Danks. The White Sox wisely chose to not buy into the offensive improvement that A.J. Pierzynski showed in his age-35 season. After compiling a .138 ISO in the first 14 years of his career, Pierzynski suddenly posted a much more robust .223 mark in his walk year. That is unlikely to continue.
In Flowers, the team not only has a player who is projected to be a better hitter by Bill James, but also the better defender. Last season, Flowers was more than six runs better defensively than Pierzynski by one measure, and that was with Pierzynski playing three times as much. With more time, Flowers should be a huge asset, and could end up a top-10 catcher defensively.
Jordan Danks should also be an asset. He isn't much with the lumber, but if the team is not able to upgrade from Viciedo, one key will be removing him in the late innings for Jordan Danks. He has been branded as an elite defender coming up through the minors, and catches like this give us a window into that prowess.
The bullpen also has reasons for optimism. Closer Addison Reed pitched better than his 4.75 ERA of a year ago, and if he can get his strikeout numbers back closer to where they were in the minors, he should continue to improve. In addition, the Sox may have found a steal in Donnie Veal, whose mainly two-pitch mix (fastball and curveball) has thus far played much better in relief now that he has had some time to be groomed for the role. With improvements from Reed and a full season of Veal -- who didn't debut until after the All-Star break -- plus Nate Jones and veterans Matt Thornton and Jesse Crain, Chicago has a fairly solid conglomerate of no-name relievers.
The White Sox still need to upgrade second base and left field, and unfortunately may need to trade Floyd to do so (they can thank years of penny-pinching in the draft for that). But even without Floyd, the rotation should be a plus assuming John Danks returns to form, the defense and bullpen can be reasonably expected to improve and the hitting shouldn't be any worse than it was last year. If John Danks doesn't return to form and Floyd is traded, things could take a turn for the worse, but otherwise Chicago looks poised to once again sneak up on people. The White Sox haven't made any big splashes this offseason, but incremental improvements at catcher, third base and the bullpen, plus a solid return from John Danks should keep them in the pennant race all season.
It's odd to think of a team that won 85 games as a sleeper, but with Los Angeles, Detroit, Tampa and Toronto mounting up as legitimate contenders, the Royals trying to give it the old college try, and Baltimore, Oakland, New York and Texas looming, a sleeper is exactly what Chicago has become.
Nats ready for shutdown to pay off.
Recently, there has been chatter that the Boston Red Sox are talking to free-agent Adam LaRoche. LaRoche is still out there, unsigned, and the Red Sox might yet choose to end their courtship of Mike Napoli. For much of the offseason, it has seemed inevitable that LaRoche would re-up with the Washington Nationals, probably for a two-year contract with a third-year option. Such a deal would free up the Nationals to trade Michael Morse. If LaRoche goes away, Morse might just replace him at first base. Therefore, the Nationals' offseason isn't yet entirely settled. But here's the kicker: No matter what happens at first, the Nationals still project to be the best team in baseball.
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Patrick McDermott/Getty Images
Strasburg fanned 11.1 per nine innings in 2012.Projected 2013 standings are nothing but projected 2013 standings, they're educated guesses. And, as evidenced by the fact that LaRoche (among other big names) is still unsigned, there are still some key moves to be made. That said, the Nats won 98 games last year, which was the most in baseball, despite the fact they voluntarily stopped using their best pitcher with a month left in the season. They were severely criticized for shutting down Stephen Strasburg, but it's time for that decision to pay off.
Obviously, you can't just assume repeat performances, but clearly the Nationals are working with a solid foundation. This winter, they lost Edwin Jackson and Sean Burnett, but added Dan Haren and Denard Span, which is a clear upgrade. And among their projected lineup and rotation (LaRoche excluded), only Haren, Jayson Werth and Michael Morse are on the wrong side of 30.
A glance around the Nationals' roster reveals a roster largely free of holes or question marks. It's a complete team with only limited vulnerabilities. Behind the plate, Kurt Suzuki hardly had the best season of his career in 2012, but he improved after coming over to Washington in a midseason deal, and he'll have the dangerous Wilson Ramos behind him, with Ramos now recovering from surgery. At first, LaRoche would be better than Morse, but Morse is more than capable, and Tyler Moore exists as further depth. If the Nationals thought their first-base situation was desperate, they would've given in to LaRoche's demands by now.
Up the middle, the Nationals got tremendous value out of Ian Desmond and Danny Espinosa in 2012, and while Desmond might not repeat at the plate and Espinosa might not repeat in the field, these are two players in their presumed career peaks who have already proven themselves to be better than the average. Put another way, there are teams with far inferior double-play combinations. Third baseman Ryan Zimmerman has already had his shoulder worked on, so his 2013 should look less uncomfortable to the naked eye. There aren't many reasons to doubt Zimmerman's value in the middle of the order.
The improved outfield now features Span, Werth and Bryce Harper, with Roger Bernadina on the bench. The Nationals had long been seeking a true center fielder, which they finally landed in Span, and he makes for a perfect fit that came at an astonishingly low price, as they only had to surrender Alex Meyer, a good (but not great) pitching prospect. This is a unit that can hit and defend, and though Harper will get most of the attention, his associates are going to do a lot more good than harm.
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Chuck Myers/Getty Images
Harper posted a 1.043 OPS over the final month of the season.The rotation remains largely unchanged, with Haren swapped in for Jackson. That the Angels dropped Haren, given the questions about his health, this might seem like a downgrade, but Jackson was only all right a year ago, and Haren has recently been of extraordinary value. Haren passed the Nationals' tests, meaning the Nationals feel like he's capable of pitching more like himself. If Haren pitches like himself, the Nationals' rotation will be incredibly deep. Ross Detwiler is the fifth starter, and last year Detwiler arguably out-pitched Matt Moore, who got a lot more hype.
The Nationals could use another arm in the bullpen -- that's what they'd seek in any Morse trade proposals, most likely -- but the bullpen already has plenty of talent, at least from the right side. More importantly, bullpens are almost entirely unpredictable. That's just the nature of relief.
One of the principle reasons behind the Strasburg shutdown was that the Nationals felt like 2012 wouldn't be their only chance. They thought they were set up to be competitive for quite a while, so they had a vested interest in preserving Strasburg's arm as much as they could. I'm not going to speak to what could happen in 2014 or down the road, but the Nationals certainly weren't one-shot title contenders. Now they're World Series favorites, and Strasburg's a little better-conditioned and a little better-preserved.
While it's certainly possible another team will win more games than the Nats in 2013, no one is in a better position than them right now. A year ago, ESPN Insider's Dan Szymborski projected the New York Yankees to win 93 games, and he pretty much hit the nail on the head. But even in that scenario, the Yankees still had just 78.9 percent chance of winning the division (they did) and a 8.3 percent chance of winning the World Series (they didn't).
The Nationals aren't guaranteed anything, but the best thing a front office can do is maximize its team's chances of finishing with a great record. The Nationals front office has succeeded in that regard, and there's every reason for their fans to be optimistic
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Patrick McDermott/Getty Images
Strasburg fanned 11.1 per nine innings in 2012.Projected 2013 standings are nothing but projected 2013 standings, they're educated guesses. And, as evidenced by the fact that LaRoche (among other big names) is still unsigned, there are still some key moves to be made. That said, the Nats won 98 games last year, which was the most in baseball, despite the fact they voluntarily stopped using their best pitcher with a month left in the season. They were severely criticized for shutting down Stephen Strasburg, but it's time for that decision to pay off.
Obviously, you can't just assume repeat performances, but clearly the Nationals are working with a solid foundation. This winter, they lost Edwin Jackson and Sean Burnett, but added Dan Haren and Denard Span, which is a clear upgrade. And among their projected lineup and rotation (LaRoche excluded), only Haren, Jayson Werth and Michael Morse are on the wrong side of 30.
A glance around the Nationals' roster reveals a roster largely free of holes or question marks. It's a complete team with only limited vulnerabilities. Behind the plate, Kurt Suzuki hardly had the best season of his career in 2012, but he improved after coming over to Washington in a midseason deal, and he'll have the dangerous Wilson Ramos behind him, with Ramos now recovering from surgery. At first, LaRoche would be better than Morse, but Morse is more than capable, and Tyler Moore exists as further depth. If the Nationals thought their first-base situation was desperate, they would've given in to LaRoche's demands by now.
Up the middle, the Nationals got tremendous value out of Ian Desmond and Danny Espinosa in 2012, and while Desmond might not repeat at the plate and Espinosa might not repeat in the field, these are two players in their presumed career peaks who have already proven themselves to be better than the average. Put another way, there are teams with far inferior double-play combinations. Third baseman Ryan Zimmerman has already had his shoulder worked on, so his 2013 should look less uncomfortable to the naked eye. There aren't many reasons to doubt Zimmerman's value in the middle of the order.
The improved outfield now features Span, Werth and Bryce Harper, with Roger Bernadina on the bench. The Nationals had long been seeking a true center fielder, which they finally landed in Span, and he makes for a perfect fit that came at an astonishingly low price, as they only had to surrender Alex Meyer, a good (but not great) pitching prospect. This is a unit that can hit and defend, and though Harper will get most of the attention, his associates are going to do a lot more good than harm.
[+] Enlarge
Chuck Myers/Getty Images
Harper posted a 1.043 OPS over the final month of the season.The rotation remains largely unchanged, with Haren swapped in for Jackson. That the Angels dropped Haren, given the questions about his health, this might seem like a downgrade, but Jackson was only all right a year ago, and Haren has recently been of extraordinary value. Haren passed the Nationals' tests, meaning the Nationals feel like he's capable of pitching more like himself. If Haren pitches like himself, the Nationals' rotation will be incredibly deep. Ross Detwiler is the fifth starter, and last year Detwiler arguably out-pitched Matt Moore, who got a lot more hype.
The Nationals could use another arm in the bullpen -- that's what they'd seek in any Morse trade proposals, most likely -- but the bullpen already has plenty of talent, at least from the right side. More importantly, bullpens are almost entirely unpredictable. That's just the nature of relief.
One of the principle reasons behind the Strasburg shutdown was that the Nationals felt like 2012 wouldn't be their only chance. They thought they were set up to be competitive for quite a while, so they had a vested interest in preserving Strasburg's arm as much as they could. I'm not going to speak to what could happen in 2014 or down the road, but the Nationals certainly weren't one-shot title contenders. Now they're World Series favorites, and Strasburg's a little better-conditioned and a little better-preserved.
While it's certainly possible another team will win more games than the Nats in 2013, no one is in a better position than them right now. A year ago, ESPN Insider's Dan Szymborski projected the New York Yankees to win 93 games, and he pretty much hit the nail on the head. But even in that scenario, the Yankees still had just 78.9 percent chance of winning the division (they did) and a 8.3 percent chance of winning the World Series (they didn't).
The Nationals aren't guaranteed anything, but the best thing a front office can do is maximize its team's chances of finishing with a great record. The Nationals front office has succeeded in that regard, and there's every reason for their fans to be optimistic
Rumors.
What's next for Texas?
12:44
PM ETTexas Rangers Recommend0Comments1EmailThe Texas Rangers finalized a one-year deal with A.J. Pierzynski this week, shoring up the catcher position and adding offense to a lineup that lost Josh Hamilton to the Angels and Mike Napoli to the Red Sox. The club still isn't done shopping, however. ESPNDallas.com's Richard Durrett writes Thursday that the Rangers would like to add another hitter as well as a pitcher.
The top free agent pitcher left on the market is Kyle Lohse, with trade candidates including Rick Porcello or Drew Smyly of the Detroit Tigers, Dodgers lefty Chris Capuano, Matt Garza of the Chicago Cubs, Miami's Ricky Nolasco, Bud Norris of the Astros and perhaps even Cliff Lee of the Phillies have their eye on a free agent for which they'd have to clear payroll first.
As for more offense, Adam LaRoche appears to be the best bat available, and the Diamondbacks could part with Jason Kubel. Jim Bowden tweeted over the weekend that the Rangers are not pursuing LaRoche or Lohse.
Durrett mentions Justin Upton, a name the Rangers have been linked to this offseason, and if the Marlins change their minds and field calls on Giancarlo Stanton, the Rangers could be first in line, writes Bowden:
- Jason A. Churchill
Jim Bowden | The GM's Office
Stanton to Texas?
"Rangers give up: Jurickson Profar, Mike Olt and Martin Perez
Acquire: Giancarlo Stanton and Ricky Nolasco (from the Miami Marlins)
The Rangers need to find a way to replace the 70 home runs they lost when both Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli left via free agency. The Rangers have tried to acquire Justin Upton, but want to build the deal around Olt and Perez and have refused to include Profar in a deal for him. The Rangers' target list includes Stanton of the Marlins, Carlos Gonzalez of the Rockies and Upton of the Arizona Diamondbacks. However, I could see them parting with Profar in a deal for Stanton, as he is younger, cheaper and better than Upton. Additionally, the Rangers need another starter, and Nolasco would fit in nicely in the back end of their rotation while Stanton would provide the power in the cleanup spot lost when Hamilton departed to the Angels. The Marlins would solve the left side of their infield for years to come and Perez would be a cheaper version of Nolasco for the rotation. Stanton desperately wants out of Miami but they could never trade him unless they were getting back a prospect at the level of a Profar."
Tags:Arizona Diamondbacks, Miami Marlins, Texas Rangers, Chris Capuano, Cliff Lee, Rick Porcello, Ricky Nolasco, Kyle Lohse, Adam LaRoche, Justin Upton, Giancarlo Stanton
LaRoche or pitching for Sox?
10:35
AM ETBoston Red Sox Recommend0Comments3EmailThe Boston Red Sox have added a few bats this offseason -- David Ross, Stephen Drew, Shane Victorino, Jonny Gomes and are working on Mike Napoli, who agreed to a deal weeks ago. Now the club may be after free agent first baseman Adam LaRoche.
LaRoche has been holding out for a three-year deal from the Washington Nationals and has also drawn interest from the Baltimore Orioles. It's unclear whether or not the Red Sox would finalize the agreement with Napoli and still sign LaRoche. It may be one or the other.
I have to wonder why the Red Sox aren't being more aggressive in terms of fixing the starting rotation, however. The club finished 2012 with the fourth-worst ERA in baseball and their starters ranked fourth-worst with a 5.19 ERA.
The Sox have added Ryan Dempster, who should help some, but on paper it appears there is still a lack of stability, even if John Lackey can return and help sometime in the first half of 2013.
The free agent market is almost dry, with Kyle Lohse the top remaining free agent, but there's always the trade route, and perhaps GM Ben Cherington and crew are monitoring the likes of Chris Capuano, Bud Norris, Rick Porcello, Drew Smyly, Matt Garza and Ricky Nolasco.
Cliff Lee is a name to keep an eye on, too, though the Phillies' motivations for moving Lee may be gone since the free agent market for outfielders and third basemen is fairly empty.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Rick Porcello, Drew Smyly, Chris Capuano, Adam LaRoche, Mike Napoli, Boston Red Sox, Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Dodgers, Ricky Nolasco, Miami Marlins, Chicago Cubs
A few top FAs remain
9:05
AM ETTop Remaining Free Agents Recommend0Comments5EmailOnly two free agents on Keith Law's Top 50 free agent rankings remain available -- centerfielder Michael Bourn and right-hander Kyle Lohse -- but they both rank in the top 10, suggesting there are still some good talents for clubs to add to their rosters.
Closer Rafael Soriano (No. 14) also remains available, as does first baseman Adam LaRoche (No. 16), Shaun Marcum (No. 23) and Lance Berkman (No. 2
.
The relief market still boasts a few top setup men, including a few with closing experience such as Kyle Farnsworth (No. 3, Jose Valverde (No. 34) and Francisco Rodriguez (No. 46).
Daisuke Matsuzaka (No. 47) and Delmon Young (No. 45) also remain free agents as their markets develop at a snail's pace.
Bourn and agent Scott Boras entered the offseason with big money on the mind, no doubt, but it may be in their best interest to take a one-year deal and re-enter the market next year when fewer center field options are available.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Adam LaRoche, Delmon Young, Jose Valverde, Rafael Soriano, Kyle Farnsworth, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Kyle Lohse, Michael Bourn
December 27, 2012Bold move for Rockies?
1:23
PM ETColorado Rockies Recommend0Comments3EmailIf the season were to start today -- and thank goodness it doesn't, because the weather outside is frightful, and the fire is so delightful ... also, if the season started in mid-December, Dean Martin would have nothing about which to sing -- the Colorado Rockies might be an arm short in their rotation.
Among the club's present options are Juan Nicasio, Christian Friedrich, Jhoulys Chacin, Tyler Chatwood, Drew Pomeranz and Jorge De La Rosa. There's nothing wrong with such a collection on the surface, but ...
Nicasio and De La Rosa are coming off serious injuries, Chatwood may belong in the bullpen and both Pomeranz and Friedrich still need work on their control and command.
Troy Renck of the Denver Post tweets that the Rockies are eyeing Jeff Karstens and Freddy Garcia, and the club was linked to Rick Porcello last week.
The Tigers are fielding calls on Drew Smyly, too, an arm that could interest the Rockies, though they may prefer to spend a few million bucks rather than giving up talent to acquire one.
Jeff Francis has also been linked to the Rockies and remaining free agents such as Aaron Cook, Derek Lowe, Shaun Marcum, Kevin Millwood, and Chris Young could all be considerations.
ESPN Insider's Jim Bowden writes Thursday that if the Rockies are bold, perhaps they could land a couple of high-impact arms:
- Jason A. Churchill
Jim Bowden | The GM's Office
How the Rockies get pitching
"Rockies give up: Carlos Gonzalez
Acquire: Trevor Rosenthal, Shelby Miller and Jon Jay (from the St. Louis Cardinals)
The Rockies have said they don't plan on trading Gonzalez, but they also know if they don?t do something drastic to address their starting rotation woes, it could be a few long summers in Denver. Gonzalez would give the Cardinals the best and most balanced lineup in the National League. To put Gonzalez in the middle of Matt Holliday, Carlos Beltran, Allen Craig andDavid Freese sets them up for the short- and long-term as they wait for Oscar Taveras to take over for Beltran in 2014. CarGo is locked up through 2017 at less than $15 million per year, which is very reasonable for a player of his caliber. And before you say that Gonzalez is simply a product of Coors Field, remember that people used to say the same thing about Holliday, and he has proven that theory incorrect in St. Louis. Rosenthal and Miller are both close to the majors and have upside. They are the kind of talented arms the Rockies lack. Jay is a solid outfielder, and he would be a nice fit in Colorado.
Tags
rew Smyly, Rick Porcello, Freddy Garcia, Jeff Karstens, Colorado Rockies, Derek Lowe, Carlos Villanueva, Aaron Cook, Shaun Marcum, Kevin Millwood, Rich Harden
December 27, 2012At least five eyeing Howell
10:11
AM ETJ.P. Howell | Rays Recommend0Comments0EmailThe market nearly has run dry on left-handed relievers this offseason -- check out the few left -- but the likes of J.P. Howell remains and MLB.com's Bill Ladson reports that five clubs have shown interest.
The five are the Cubs, Phillies, Rangers, Mariners and Nationals, and there may be others that have gone unreported to date.
The Mariners' interest is a bit peculiar since they have three southpaws -- Oliver Perez, Lucas Luetge and Charlie Furbush -- all due back in 2013 after quality 2012 campaigns.
The Nationals lost Sean Burnett to the Angels earlier this month, and have few in-house options, if any. Ladson mentions Bill Bray as one possibility.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Chicago Cubs, Philadelphia Phillies, Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers, Washington Nationals, Sean Burnett, Bill Bray, J.P. Howell
December 27, 2012Available free agent starters
9:25
AM ETFree Agent Starters Recommend0Comments15EmailFree Agent Starting PitchersZack Greinke, RHP | Dodgers: six years, $147 millionAnibal Sanchez, RHP | Tigers: five years, $80 million Kyle Lohse, RHPEdwin Jackson, RHP | Cubs: four years. $52 millionRyan Dempster, RHP | Red Sox: two years, $26.5 millionJeremy Guthrie, RHP | Royals: three years, $25 millionBrandon McCarthy, RHP | D-backs: two years, $15.5 millionHisashi Iwakuma, RHP | Mariners: two years, $15 millionHiroki Kuroda, RHP | Yankees: one year, $15 millionDan Haren, RHP | Nationals: one year, $13 millionFrancisco Liriano, LHP | Pirates: two years, $12.75 millionShaun Marcum, RHPRoy Oswalt, RHPJoe Saunders, LHP
Daisuke Matsuzaka, RHPCarlos Villanueva, RHP | Cubs: two years, $10 millionThis year's crop of free agent starters doesn't have much in the way of high-end arms, aside from Zack Greinke, who's officially a Dodger, but it's rather deep with second- and third-tier possibilities for the middles and back-ends of rotations.
Until Greinke inked with L.A., the pitchers market had been moving more slowly than the hitters, as no starter had signed for more than three years or for more than $15 million per season (which is what Kuroda got for another year with the Yankees). Since Greinke's deal, though, we've seen Sanchez get a big-money, multi-year contract, as well as Dempster signing with the Red Sox, so things have picked up.
The big x-factor in this market was the Rays, who shook things up by trading James Shields to Kansas City in last weekend's blockbuster.
Since that trade, Villanueva, Jackson and Liriano have each signed, leaving Lohse as the top free agent starter. Lohse, tweets Jim Bowden of ESPN Insider, is being considered by Baltimore, Milwaukee and Texas, among others.
The trade market may not be much of a help to clubs looking for starters with Shields, Jason Vargas and Tommy Hanson already having been dealt, though Chris Capuano and Aaron Harang could be traded by the Dodgers.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Texas Rangers, Anibal Sanchez, Los Angeles Dodgers, Los Angeles Angels, Dan Haren, Shaun Marcum, Francisco Liriano, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Ryan Dempster, James Shields, Francisco Liriano, Zack Greinke, Ryan Dempster
December 26, 2012The timing of a Stanton trade
12:11
PM ETGiancarlo Stanton | Marlins Recommend0Comments34EmailTop collections of youth
1. San Diego Padres
Yasmani Grandal, Case Kelly, Rymer Liriano, Max Fried, Austin Hedges, Jedd Gyorko, Joe Ross, Zach Eflin, Walker Weickel 2. Tampa Bay Rays
Chris Archer, Enny Romero, Drew Vettleson, Blake Snell, Richie Shaffer, Taylor Guerreri, Desmond Jennings, Hak-Ju Lee, Alex Colome 3. Seattle Mariners
Taijuan Walker, Kyle Seager, Dustin Ackley, Danny Hultzen, Brandon Maurer, Nick Franklin, Brad Miller, James Paxton, Victor Sanchez 4. Oakland Athletics
Jarrod Parker, A.J. Cole, Addison Russell, Sony Gray, Dan Straily, Chris Carter, Michael Choice, Derek Norris 5. Pittsburgh Pirates
Jameson Taillon, Josh Bell, Starling Marte, Tony Sanchez, Gerrit Cole, Gregory Polanco, Alen Hanson, Wyatt Mathisen, Luis Heredia Perhaps the hottest topic among many fan bases is the idea that the Miami Marlins may field offers for right fielder Giancarlo Stanton. Since the Fish traded away their two best starting pitchers and their starting shortstop, the club has fielded calls, but sources tell Rumor Central that Miami's executives are refusing to discuss trades involving the budding superstar. That stance could change fairly soon, however.
Stanton will not be arbitration eligible until this time next year, which means he will spend 2013 as a 23-year-old threat to the 50-homer mark and won't crack the half-million dollar mark in terms of salary. He'll be affordable, even for the Marlins, through 2014, too.
Stanton's moderate salary, however, may not -- and should not -- prevent the club from seeing what they can get for him between now and the start of the 2014 season. It may be more ideal to let him continue to mash at the plate, perhaps hit 40-50 long balls this coming season and driving the trade cost through the roof.
Stanton, of course, made it known how unhappy he was with the organization's decision to have a fire sale, creating a scenario in which its difficult to believe he'd ever sign an extension to stay in South Beach. Once the team decides the time is right to seriously consider trading him, rival clubs will line up around the block to make their pitch.
If Stanton gets off to a great start in '13 it's conceivable that the Marlins' brass could check the offer sheets to see what they can get and if a team overwhelms them, Stanton could be dealt before the trade deadline.
Such a transaction, whether it take place over the summer or between seasons, is likely to be a franchise changer, at least if Miami handles it right and demands the right kind of talents in return. The timing is right sometime in the next 15 months or so, however, since the club-controlled years of service are extremely valuable and the closer he gets to free agency the more his value sinks.
Any of the 29 other clubs could have strong interest and a handful of those that have strong farm systems and good-to-great young talents in the big leagues will have a shot to land the Big Fish. They'll likely have to wait a year, but the chances Stanton isn't worth the wait -- and the premium bait it will require to get the Marlins to bite.
ESPN Insider's Jim Bowden writes Friday that the Rangers could be a club equipped to get a deal done:
- Jason A. Churchill
Jim Bowden | The GM's Office
Stanton to Texas?
"Stanton is the No. 1 young right-handed power hitter in game, and he already has 93 career homers despite turning 23 just last month. But Stanton is no one-dimensional slugger. He is also an above-average right fielder with an above-average arm. He studies the game as well as any young player and has terrific work ethic and baseball instincts. If he stays healthy, he'll have a chance to join the 600 home run club someday. The Marlins won't contend until at least 2014, so the prudent move would be to trade him and maximize the return for a player of Stanton's caliber. What's next: The Marlins have said they won't trade Stanton, realizing that he is not only their best player and a future superstar but, more importantly, also their only drawing card. But if he shows up to camp and continues to be unhappy, the Marlins will have to listen to trade proposals come July. There is not a young position player in baseball who has more trade value than Stanton, and with the rebuilding Marlins, if a team such as the Texas Rangers wants to empty the farm for him, the Fish will have to listen."
Tags:Miami Marlins, Giancarlo Stanton
December 26, 2012Mets like Crisp
11:33
AM ETCoco Crisp | Athletics Recommend0Comments1EmailWhen the Oakland Athletics acquired Chris Young from the Arizona Diamondbacks in October, Coco Crisp became expendable. Sure, the A's can use of the two in left field and focus on defense, but centerfielders are not easy to find, suggesting Crisp and Young have more value to the A's as trade bait.
Thursday, Ken Davidoff reports via Twitter that the Mets have expressed interest in Crisp, but that the sense is the A's will hang onto the switch hitting speedster.
Perhaps the free agency of Michael Bourn is holding up the potential trade market for Crisp and once Bourn signs, Crisp's value could soar.
Other clubs that could use a strong glove in center include the Cubs and Rangers. The Reds acquired Shin-Soo Choo earlier this month and plan to use him in center, but Crisp would allow the club to use Choo in a corner where he profiles much better defensively and use both Todd Frazier and Ryan Ludwick in more fitting roles.
The Braves could see Crisp as a nice fit in left field, as Martin Prado moves to third base to take over for the retired Chipper Jones.
The Mets in-house outfield options leave much to be desired as the most experienced outfielder on the roster is Daniel Murphy, who is now playing second base.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Coco Crisp, Chris Young, New York Mets, Oakland Athletics, Shin-Soo Choo, Cincinnati Reds, Texas Rangers
December 26, 2012Ultimatum for LaRoche?
11:05
AM ETAdam LaRoche | Nationals Recommend0Comments3EmailAdam LaRoche is still dangling on the open market, and while he's indicated that he prefers to remain in Washington with the Nationals, he's also sticking to his target of landing a three-year deal.
The Nats, though, don't seem inclined to up their two-year offer -- one that's been on the table for a while now -- and in fact, it's possible that GM Mike Rizzo could give LaRoche an ultimatum of sorts, according to Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post.
Under that scenario, the Nats, who were hoping to have this situation resolved by the end of the year, could basically tell LaRoche that if he doesn't agree to their terms, they will plan to move on without him by shifting Michael Morse to first base. Essentially, the club has more leverage than the player in this case, or at least, that's how it's being presented.
It's not as if LaRoche has zero leverage, though, as the Baltimore Orioles are legitimately interested in him -- and may be willing to give him the three-year contract he covets.
The Texas Rangers also could have some interest in LaRoche, but assistant GM Thad Levine told ESPN Insider's Jim Bowden that the club has not discussed LaRoche internally. Additionally, the Rangers have approached Ian Kinsler about possibly playing first base in 2013 -- with top prospect Jurickson Profar manning second base -- which eliminates the need for LaRoche.
- Jason Catania
Tags:Baltimore Orioles, Texas Rangers, Washington Nationals, Adam LaRoche, Michael Morse
December 26, 2012Yanks prefer righties
10:50
AM ETNew York Yankees Recommend0Comments0EmailWhile the New York Yankees wanted to bring back Raul Ibanez this winter, GM Brian Cashman wasn't exactly broken up after the veteran signed with the Seattle Mariners last week. That's because Cashman is focusing on finding an outfielder with a different skill -- namely, one who can hit from the right side.
As Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News reports, the Yankees' top target for their outfield appears to be free agent Scott Hairston, a right-handed bat who has shown power and solid splits against southpaws in his career -- and who posted a .286/.317/.550 line against them in 2012. Trouble is, Hairston is hoping to land a two-year deal, whereas the Yanks aren't inclined to go beyond a season.
Matt Diaz could also be a possibility, Feinsand speculates, given his career .324/.364/.498 line against lefties.
As currently constructed, the club's outfield consists of Curtis Granderson, Ichiro Suzuki and Brett Gardner, all of whom hit from the left side. Hence, the team's interest in an outfielder who could help with a platoon advantage.
- Jason Catania
Tags:Scott Hairston, Matt Diaz, New York Yankees
December 26, 2012Catching market full of backups
10:44
AM ETMarket for catchers Recommend0Comments21EmailThe Catchers Market
Mike Napoli | Red Sox: three years, $39 million (pending agreement)A.J. Pierzynski | Rangers: one year, $7.5 millionRussell Martin | Pirates: two years, $17 millionDavid Ross | Red Sox: two years, $6.2 millionGeovany Soto| Rangers: one year, $2.75 millionKelly ShoppachMiguel OlivoRod BarajasGerald Laird | Braves: two years, $3 millionChris SnyderYorvit TorrealbaBrian SchneiderRonny PaulinoHenry BlancoKoyie HillWil NievesHumberto Quintero | Phillies: minor league contractMatt TreanorJesus FloresJ.R. Tow*****bby Wilson | Yankees: minor league contractThe free agent market for catchers is never deep and rarely offers a star, and this year's class has been no different. The list at right is full of backups and organizational depth, with just a few potential regulars, and now that Pierzynski has signed with the Rangers, the remaining free agent catchers are limited to part-time options and depth.
The Yankees appear set on starting the season with Francisco Cervelli, Chris Stewart and prospect Austin Romine, though it's conceivable they could take a flier on another veteran even after bringing in Wilson.
Now that the Blue Jays have traded prospect Travis d'Arnaud and veteran John Buck to the Mets -- after they'd acquired him earlier in the offseason from the Marlins in a deal that also sent catcher Jeff Mathis to Miami -- it's likely that Toronto's done dealing backstops and will stick with J.P. Arencibia and Josh Thole.
The Red Sox could make a move from a surplus of catchers once their signing of Napoli, which is being held up by an issue with one of his hips discovered during his physical, becomes official. At that point, Boston would have Jarrod Saltalamacchia, David Ross, Ryan Lavarnway and Napoli, who is expected to handle first base duties, all capable of playing catcher.
Many other clubs have openings for their backup job, and the majority of the free agents are likely to receive one-year deals, at best, or minor league contracts with invites to spring training.
- Jason A. Churchill
12:44
PM ETTexas Rangers Recommend0Comments1EmailThe Texas Rangers finalized a one-year deal with A.J. Pierzynski this week, shoring up the catcher position and adding offense to a lineup that lost Josh Hamilton to the Angels and Mike Napoli to the Red Sox. The club still isn't done shopping, however. ESPNDallas.com's Richard Durrett writes Thursday that the Rangers would like to add another hitter as well as a pitcher.
The top free agent pitcher left on the market is Kyle Lohse, with trade candidates including Rick Porcello or Drew Smyly of the Detroit Tigers, Dodgers lefty Chris Capuano, Matt Garza of the Chicago Cubs, Miami's Ricky Nolasco, Bud Norris of the Astros and perhaps even Cliff Lee of the Phillies have their eye on a free agent for which they'd have to clear payroll first.
As for more offense, Adam LaRoche appears to be the best bat available, and the Diamondbacks could part with Jason Kubel. Jim Bowden tweeted over the weekend that the Rangers are not pursuing LaRoche or Lohse.
Durrett mentions Justin Upton, a name the Rangers have been linked to this offseason, and if the Marlins change their minds and field calls on Giancarlo Stanton, the Rangers could be first in line, writes Bowden:
- Jason A. Churchill
Jim Bowden | The GM's Office
Stanton to Texas?
"Rangers give up: Jurickson Profar, Mike Olt and Martin Perez
Acquire: Giancarlo Stanton and Ricky Nolasco (from the Miami Marlins)
The Rangers need to find a way to replace the 70 home runs they lost when both Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli left via free agency. The Rangers have tried to acquire Justin Upton, but want to build the deal around Olt and Perez and have refused to include Profar in a deal for him. The Rangers' target list includes Stanton of the Marlins, Carlos Gonzalez of the Rockies and Upton of the Arizona Diamondbacks. However, I could see them parting with Profar in a deal for Stanton, as he is younger, cheaper and better than Upton. Additionally, the Rangers need another starter, and Nolasco would fit in nicely in the back end of their rotation while Stanton would provide the power in the cleanup spot lost when Hamilton departed to the Angels. The Marlins would solve the left side of their infield for years to come and Perez would be a cheaper version of Nolasco for the rotation. Stanton desperately wants out of Miami but they could never trade him unless they were getting back a prospect at the level of a Profar."
Tags:Arizona Diamondbacks, Miami Marlins, Texas Rangers, Chris Capuano, Cliff Lee, Rick Porcello, Ricky Nolasco, Kyle Lohse, Adam LaRoche, Justin Upton, Giancarlo Stanton
LaRoche or pitching for Sox?
10:35
AM ETBoston Red Sox Recommend0Comments3EmailThe Boston Red Sox have added a few bats this offseason -- David Ross, Stephen Drew, Shane Victorino, Jonny Gomes and are working on Mike Napoli, who agreed to a deal weeks ago. Now the club may be after free agent first baseman Adam LaRoche.
LaRoche has been holding out for a three-year deal from the Washington Nationals and has also drawn interest from the Baltimore Orioles. It's unclear whether or not the Red Sox would finalize the agreement with Napoli and still sign LaRoche. It may be one or the other.
I have to wonder why the Red Sox aren't being more aggressive in terms of fixing the starting rotation, however. The club finished 2012 with the fourth-worst ERA in baseball and their starters ranked fourth-worst with a 5.19 ERA.
The Sox have added Ryan Dempster, who should help some, but on paper it appears there is still a lack of stability, even if John Lackey can return and help sometime in the first half of 2013.
The free agent market is almost dry, with Kyle Lohse the top remaining free agent, but there's always the trade route, and perhaps GM Ben Cherington and crew are monitoring the likes of Chris Capuano, Bud Norris, Rick Porcello, Drew Smyly, Matt Garza and Ricky Nolasco.
Cliff Lee is a name to keep an eye on, too, though the Phillies' motivations for moving Lee may be gone since the free agent market for outfielders and third basemen is fairly empty.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Rick Porcello, Drew Smyly, Chris Capuano, Adam LaRoche, Mike Napoli, Boston Red Sox, Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Dodgers, Ricky Nolasco, Miami Marlins, Chicago Cubs
A few top FAs remain
9:05
AM ETTop Remaining Free Agents Recommend0Comments5EmailOnly two free agents on Keith Law's Top 50 free agent rankings remain available -- centerfielder Michael Bourn and right-hander Kyle Lohse -- but they both rank in the top 10, suggesting there are still some good talents for clubs to add to their rosters.
Closer Rafael Soriano (No. 14) also remains available, as does first baseman Adam LaRoche (No. 16), Shaun Marcum (No. 23) and Lance Berkman (No. 2
.The relief market still boasts a few top setup men, including a few with closing experience such as Kyle Farnsworth (No. 3
, Jose Valverde (No. 34) and Francisco Rodriguez (No. 46).Daisuke Matsuzaka (No. 47) and Delmon Young (No. 45) also remain free agents as their markets develop at a snail's pace.
Bourn and agent Scott Boras entered the offseason with big money on the mind, no doubt, but it may be in their best interest to take a one-year deal and re-enter the market next year when fewer center field options are available.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Adam LaRoche, Delmon Young, Jose Valverde, Rafael Soriano, Kyle Farnsworth, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Kyle Lohse, Michael Bourn
December 27, 2012Bold move for Rockies?
1:23
PM ETColorado Rockies Recommend0Comments3EmailIf the season were to start today -- and thank goodness it doesn't, because the weather outside is frightful, and the fire is so delightful ... also, if the season started in mid-December, Dean Martin would have nothing about which to sing -- the Colorado Rockies might be an arm short in their rotation.
Among the club's present options are Juan Nicasio, Christian Friedrich, Jhoulys Chacin, Tyler Chatwood, Drew Pomeranz and Jorge De La Rosa. There's nothing wrong with such a collection on the surface, but ...
Nicasio and De La Rosa are coming off serious injuries, Chatwood may belong in the bullpen and both Pomeranz and Friedrich still need work on their control and command.
Troy Renck of the Denver Post tweets that the Rockies are eyeing Jeff Karstens and Freddy Garcia, and the club was linked to Rick Porcello last week.
The Tigers are fielding calls on Drew Smyly, too, an arm that could interest the Rockies, though they may prefer to spend a few million bucks rather than giving up talent to acquire one.
Jeff Francis has also been linked to the Rockies and remaining free agents such as Aaron Cook, Derek Lowe, Shaun Marcum, Kevin Millwood, and Chris Young could all be considerations.
ESPN Insider's Jim Bowden writes Thursday that if the Rockies are bold, perhaps they could land a couple of high-impact arms:
- Jason A. Churchill
Jim Bowden | The GM's Office
How the Rockies get pitching
"Rockies give up: Carlos Gonzalez
Acquire: Trevor Rosenthal, Shelby Miller and Jon Jay (from the St. Louis Cardinals)
The Rockies have said they don't plan on trading Gonzalez, but they also know if they don?t do something drastic to address their starting rotation woes, it could be a few long summers in Denver. Gonzalez would give the Cardinals the best and most balanced lineup in the National League. To put Gonzalez in the middle of Matt Holliday, Carlos Beltran, Allen Craig andDavid Freese sets them up for the short- and long-term as they wait for Oscar Taveras to take over for Beltran in 2014. CarGo is locked up through 2017 at less than $15 million per year, which is very reasonable for a player of his caliber. And before you say that Gonzalez is simply a product of Coors Field, remember that people used to say the same thing about Holliday, and he has proven that theory incorrect in St. Louis. Rosenthal and Miller are both close to the majors and have upside. They are the kind of talented arms the Rockies lack. Jay is a solid outfielder, and he would be a nice fit in Colorado.
Tags
rew Smyly, Rick Porcello, Freddy Garcia, Jeff Karstens, Colorado Rockies, Derek Lowe, Carlos Villanueva, Aaron Cook, Shaun Marcum, Kevin Millwood, Rich HardenDecember 27, 2012At least five eyeing Howell
10:11
AM ETJ.P. Howell | Rays Recommend0Comments0EmailThe market nearly has run dry on left-handed relievers this offseason -- check out the few left -- but the likes of J.P. Howell remains and MLB.com's Bill Ladson reports that five clubs have shown interest.
The five are the Cubs, Phillies, Rangers, Mariners and Nationals, and there may be others that have gone unreported to date.
The Mariners' interest is a bit peculiar since they have three southpaws -- Oliver Perez, Lucas Luetge and Charlie Furbush -- all due back in 2013 after quality 2012 campaigns.
The Nationals lost Sean Burnett to the Angels earlier this month, and have few in-house options, if any. Ladson mentions Bill Bray as one possibility.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Chicago Cubs, Philadelphia Phillies, Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers, Washington Nationals, Sean Burnett, Bill Bray, J.P. Howell
December 27, 2012Available free agent starters
9:25
AM ETFree Agent Starters Recommend0Comments15EmailFree Agent Starting PitchersZack Greinke, RHP | Dodgers: six years, $147 millionAnibal Sanchez, RHP | Tigers: five years, $80 million Kyle Lohse, RHPEdwin Jackson, RHP | Cubs: four years. $52 millionRyan Dempster, RHP | Red Sox: two years, $26.5 millionJeremy Guthrie, RHP | Royals: three years, $25 millionBrandon McCarthy, RHP | D-backs: two years, $15.5 millionHisashi Iwakuma, RHP | Mariners: two years, $15 millionHiroki Kuroda, RHP | Yankees: one year, $15 millionDan Haren, RHP | Nationals: one year, $13 millionFrancisco Liriano, LHP | Pirates: two years, $12.75 millionShaun Marcum, RHPRoy Oswalt, RHPJoe Saunders, LHP
Daisuke Matsuzaka, RHPCarlos Villanueva, RHP | Cubs: two years, $10 millionThis year's crop of free agent starters doesn't have much in the way of high-end arms, aside from Zack Greinke, who's officially a Dodger, but it's rather deep with second- and third-tier possibilities for the middles and back-ends of rotations.
Until Greinke inked with L.A., the pitchers market had been moving more slowly than the hitters, as no starter had signed for more than three years or for more than $15 million per season (which is what Kuroda got for another year with the Yankees). Since Greinke's deal, though, we've seen Sanchez get a big-money, multi-year contract, as well as Dempster signing with the Red Sox, so things have picked up.
The big x-factor in this market was the Rays, who shook things up by trading James Shields to Kansas City in last weekend's blockbuster.
Since that trade, Villanueva, Jackson and Liriano have each signed, leaving Lohse as the top free agent starter. Lohse, tweets Jim Bowden of ESPN Insider, is being considered by Baltimore, Milwaukee and Texas, among others.
The trade market may not be much of a help to clubs looking for starters with Shields, Jason Vargas and Tommy Hanson already having been dealt, though Chris Capuano and Aaron Harang could be traded by the Dodgers.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Texas Rangers, Anibal Sanchez, Los Angeles Dodgers, Los Angeles Angels, Dan Haren, Shaun Marcum, Francisco Liriano, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Ryan Dempster, James Shields, Francisco Liriano, Zack Greinke, Ryan Dempster
December 26, 2012The timing of a Stanton trade
12:11
PM ETGiancarlo Stanton | Marlins Recommend0Comments34EmailTop collections of youth
1. San Diego Padres
Yasmani Grandal, Case Kelly, Rymer Liriano, Max Fried, Austin Hedges, Jedd Gyorko, Joe Ross, Zach Eflin, Walker Weickel 2. Tampa Bay Rays
Chris Archer, Enny Romero, Drew Vettleson, Blake Snell, Richie Shaffer, Taylor Guerreri, Desmond Jennings, Hak-Ju Lee, Alex Colome 3. Seattle Mariners
Taijuan Walker, Kyle Seager, Dustin Ackley, Danny Hultzen, Brandon Maurer, Nick Franklin, Brad Miller, James Paxton, Victor Sanchez 4. Oakland Athletics
Jarrod Parker, A.J. Cole, Addison Russell, Sony Gray, Dan Straily, Chris Carter, Michael Choice, Derek Norris 5. Pittsburgh Pirates
Jameson Taillon, Josh Bell, Starling Marte, Tony Sanchez, Gerrit Cole, Gregory Polanco, Alen Hanson, Wyatt Mathisen, Luis Heredia Perhaps the hottest topic among many fan bases is the idea that the Miami Marlins may field offers for right fielder Giancarlo Stanton. Since the Fish traded away their two best starting pitchers and their starting shortstop, the club has fielded calls, but sources tell Rumor Central that Miami's executives are refusing to discuss trades involving the budding superstar. That stance could change fairly soon, however.
Stanton will not be arbitration eligible until this time next year, which means he will spend 2013 as a 23-year-old threat to the 50-homer mark and won't crack the half-million dollar mark in terms of salary. He'll be affordable, even for the Marlins, through 2014, too.
Stanton's moderate salary, however, may not -- and should not -- prevent the club from seeing what they can get for him between now and the start of the 2014 season. It may be more ideal to let him continue to mash at the plate, perhaps hit 40-50 long balls this coming season and driving the trade cost through the roof.
Stanton, of course, made it known how unhappy he was with the organization's decision to have a fire sale, creating a scenario in which its difficult to believe he'd ever sign an extension to stay in South Beach. Once the team decides the time is right to seriously consider trading him, rival clubs will line up around the block to make their pitch.
If Stanton gets off to a great start in '13 it's conceivable that the Marlins' brass could check the offer sheets to see what they can get and if a team overwhelms them, Stanton could be dealt before the trade deadline.
Such a transaction, whether it take place over the summer or between seasons, is likely to be a franchise changer, at least if Miami handles it right and demands the right kind of talents in return. The timing is right sometime in the next 15 months or so, however, since the club-controlled years of service are extremely valuable and the closer he gets to free agency the more his value sinks.
Any of the 29 other clubs could have strong interest and a handful of those that have strong farm systems and good-to-great young talents in the big leagues will have a shot to land the Big Fish. They'll likely have to wait a year, but the chances Stanton isn't worth the wait -- and the premium bait it will require to get the Marlins to bite.
ESPN Insider's Jim Bowden writes Friday that the Rangers could be a club equipped to get a deal done:
- Jason A. Churchill
Jim Bowden | The GM's Office
Stanton to Texas?
"Stanton is the No. 1 young right-handed power hitter in game, and he already has 93 career homers despite turning 23 just last month. But Stanton is no one-dimensional slugger. He is also an above-average right fielder with an above-average arm. He studies the game as well as any young player and has terrific work ethic and baseball instincts. If he stays healthy, he'll have a chance to join the 600 home run club someday. The Marlins won't contend until at least 2014, so the prudent move would be to trade him and maximize the return for a player of Stanton's caliber. What's next: The Marlins have said they won't trade Stanton, realizing that he is not only their best player and a future superstar but, more importantly, also their only drawing card. But if he shows up to camp and continues to be unhappy, the Marlins will have to listen to trade proposals come July. There is not a young position player in baseball who has more trade value than Stanton, and with the rebuilding Marlins, if a team such as the Texas Rangers wants to empty the farm for him, the Fish will have to listen."
Tags:Miami Marlins, Giancarlo Stanton
December 26, 2012Mets like Crisp
11:33
AM ETCoco Crisp | Athletics Recommend0Comments1EmailWhen the Oakland Athletics acquired Chris Young from the Arizona Diamondbacks in October, Coco Crisp became expendable. Sure, the A's can use of the two in left field and focus on defense, but centerfielders are not easy to find, suggesting Crisp and Young have more value to the A's as trade bait.
Thursday, Ken Davidoff reports via Twitter that the Mets have expressed interest in Crisp, but that the sense is the A's will hang onto the switch hitting speedster.
Perhaps the free agency of Michael Bourn is holding up the potential trade market for Crisp and once Bourn signs, Crisp's value could soar.
Other clubs that could use a strong glove in center include the Cubs and Rangers. The Reds acquired Shin-Soo Choo earlier this month and plan to use him in center, but Crisp would allow the club to use Choo in a corner where he profiles much better defensively and use both Todd Frazier and Ryan Ludwick in more fitting roles.
The Braves could see Crisp as a nice fit in left field, as Martin Prado moves to third base to take over for the retired Chipper Jones.
The Mets in-house outfield options leave much to be desired as the most experienced outfielder on the roster is Daniel Murphy, who is now playing second base.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Coco Crisp, Chris Young, New York Mets, Oakland Athletics, Shin-Soo Choo, Cincinnati Reds, Texas Rangers
December 26, 2012Ultimatum for LaRoche?
11:05
AM ETAdam LaRoche | Nationals Recommend0Comments3EmailAdam LaRoche is still dangling on the open market, and while he's indicated that he prefers to remain in Washington with the Nationals, he's also sticking to his target of landing a three-year deal.
The Nats, though, don't seem inclined to up their two-year offer -- one that's been on the table for a while now -- and in fact, it's possible that GM Mike Rizzo could give LaRoche an ultimatum of sorts, according to Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post.
Under that scenario, the Nats, who were hoping to have this situation resolved by the end of the year, could basically tell LaRoche that if he doesn't agree to their terms, they will plan to move on without him by shifting Michael Morse to first base. Essentially, the club has more leverage than the player in this case, or at least, that's how it's being presented.
It's not as if LaRoche has zero leverage, though, as the Baltimore Orioles are legitimately interested in him -- and may be willing to give him the three-year contract he covets.
The Texas Rangers also could have some interest in LaRoche, but assistant GM Thad Levine told ESPN Insider's Jim Bowden that the club has not discussed LaRoche internally. Additionally, the Rangers have approached Ian Kinsler about possibly playing first base in 2013 -- with top prospect Jurickson Profar manning second base -- which eliminates the need for LaRoche.
- Jason Catania
Tags:Baltimore Orioles, Texas Rangers, Washington Nationals, Adam LaRoche, Michael Morse
December 26, 2012Yanks prefer righties
10:50
AM ETNew York Yankees Recommend0Comments0EmailWhile the New York Yankees wanted to bring back Raul Ibanez this winter, GM Brian Cashman wasn't exactly broken up after the veteran signed with the Seattle Mariners last week. That's because Cashman is focusing on finding an outfielder with a different skill -- namely, one who can hit from the right side.
As Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News reports, the Yankees' top target for their outfield appears to be free agent Scott Hairston, a right-handed bat who has shown power and solid splits against southpaws in his career -- and who posted a .286/.317/.550 line against them in 2012. Trouble is, Hairston is hoping to land a two-year deal, whereas the Yanks aren't inclined to go beyond a season.
Matt Diaz could also be a possibility, Feinsand speculates, given his career .324/.364/.498 line against lefties.
As currently constructed, the club's outfield consists of Curtis Granderson, Ichiro Suzuki and Brett Gardner, all of whom hit from the left side. Hence, the team's interest in an outfielder who could help with a platoon advantage.
- Jason Catania
Tags:Scott Hairston, Matt Diaz, New York Yankees
December 26, 2012Catching market full of backups
10:44
AM ETMarket for catchers Recommend0Comments21EmailThe Catchers Market
Mike Napoli | Red Sox: three years, $39 million (pending agreement)A.J. Pierzynski | Rangers: one year, $7.5 millionRussell Martin | Pirates: two years, $17 millionDavid Ross | Red Sox: two years, $6.2 millionGeovany Soto| Rangers: one year, $2.75 millionKelly ShoppachMiguel OlivoRod BarajasGerald Laird | Braves: two years, $3 millionChris SnyderYorvit TorrealbaBrian SchneiderRonny PaulinoHenry BlancoKoyie HillWil NievesHumberto Quintero | Phillies: minor league contractMatt TreanorJesus FloresJ.R. Tow*****bby Wilson | Yankees: minor league contractThe free agent market for catchers is never deep and rarely offers a star, and this year's class has been no different. The list at right is full of backups and organizational depth, with just a few potential regulars, and now that Pierzynski has signed with the Rangers, the remaining free agent catchers are limited to part-time options and depth.
The Yankees appear set on starting the season with Francisco Cervelli, Chris Stewart and prospect Austin Romine, though it's conceivable they could take a flier on another veteran even after bringing in Wilson.
Now that the Blue Jays have traded prospect Travis d'Arnaud and veteran John Buck to the Mets -- after they'd acquired him earlier in the offseason from the Marlins in a deal that also sent catcher Jeff Mathis to Miami -- it's likely that Toronto's done dealing backstops and will stick with J.P. Arencibia and Josh Thole.
The Red Sox could make a move from a surplus of catchers once their signing of Napoli, which is being held up by an issue with one of his hips discovered during his physical, becomes official. At that point, Boston would have Jarrod Saltalamacchia, David Ross, Ryan Lavarnway and Napoli, who is expected to handle first base duties, all capable of playing catcher.
Many other clubs have openings for their backup job, and the majority of the free agents are likely to receive one-year deals, at best, or minor league contracts with invites to spring training.
- Jason A. Churchill
- 253
- 27
- Joined
- Jul 22, 2012
Didnt know this thread existed on NT... Glad I found my way here.
As for the new BP hats.. it was time they changed them up. They are also used for most of all the Spring Training games.
As for the new BP hats.. it was time they changed them up. They are also used for most of all the Spring Training games.
Top 10 infields in the majors.
Top 10 outfields in MLB.
Top 10 rotations in MLB.
Biggest risks of the offseason.
Hanrahan proves closer myth.
Rumors.
1. Texas Rangers
The Rangers' plan is to give Mitch Moreland a chance to establish himself as the first baseman in spring training, but they will also be devoted to the concept of making sure their best players will be in the lineup; if it becomes clear that Jurickson Profar -- who turns 20 next month -- is one of those guys, he'll play. Profar was shut down in winter ball because of an elbow problem, but the Rangers say he's fine now and is ready to go. The left side of the Texas infield is dynamic defensively, with MVP candidate Adrian Beltre at third and the improved Elvis Andrus at shortstop. Andrus is only 24 years old and still developing as an offensive player, and he showed in the first half that he has room to grow.
The X factor: Ian Kinsler. There was a general regression throughout almost every part of the Rangers' lineup as last season progressed, from Josh Hamilton to Michael Young, but Kinsler's decline may have been the most perplexing. At age 30, his OPS slid by 83 points from 2011 to 2012; his WAR went from 7.1 to 2.0 in the same time frame. The damage he did against fastballs dropped considerably last year. As Profar emerges, Kinsler could be asked to change positions and move to first base, as he has acknowledged, but no matter where he plays, the Rangers will need better production out of him than they got last season; when at his best, Kinsler can be an elite hitter, among infielders.
2. Detroit Tigers
Let's get this out of the way: The Tigers' infield defense was the worst in the majors last season because of plays not made, and for a sinker-ball pitcher like Rick Porcello, the lack of range is a problem. But in the end, Detroit reached the World Series largely because of the offensive excellence of Miguel Cabrera, who had the first Triple Crown season in almost half a century, and Prince Fielder, who made a seamless transition in his first season in Detroit. Those two combined for 74 homers and 247 RBIs.
"They're the best 1-2 punch in the big leagues," an AL general manager said recently. A very underrated part of what Cabrera and Fielder provide is their devotion to playing daily: They answer the bell, every day. Over the last seven seasons, Cabrera and Fielder have missed a total of 40 games. Omar Infante seemingly put a lot of pressure on himself after joining the Tigers in a midseason trade, before settling in and playing better down in the last weeks; he should be better this year.
The X factor: Their shortstop situation. The Tigers exercised the 2013 option for Jhonny Peralta, who is steady but limited, especially on defense. But they demonstrated during the winter that they're open to a possible upgrade, and it'll be interesting to see if Peralta holds this position throughout the season, or if Detroit aggressively looks for an alternative during the year.
3. Cincinnati Reds
If Texas has the best left side in baseball, the Reds probably have the best right side, with Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips, who both excel offensively and defensively. Votto will presumably go into this season fully recovered from the multiple rounds of knee surgery he had last year, and with Shin-Soo Choo joining the Reds, Phillips figures to slide into the No. 2 spot in the Cincinnati lineup. Dusty Baker had to work to get Todd Frazier into the lineup at times last season, but with Scott Rolen closer to retirement, Frazier becomes the every-day guy at third, after posting an .829 OPS in 128 games last year. It's worth noting that while the Reds' hitters generally benefit from hitting in a cozy home park, Frazier fared better on the road than at home in 2012, by a good margin -- his OPS away from Cincinnati was 85 points higher, at .871. Shortstop Zack Cozart, 27, has some pop.
The X factor: For the first time in Votto's time with the Reds, the sum of their parts could really help him to a monster season. In recent years, Cincinnati has sometimes lacked a leadoff hitter who consistently gets on base, or good left-handed/right-handed balance, or depth through the 4-5-6 spots in their lineup. But with the addition of Choo at the top of their lineup, the Reds might have the best group they've ever had around Votto, who finished 2012 with a career-high 1.041 OPS. It could be a really big summer for him.
4. Tampa Bay Rays
Sure, nobody knows exactly what they'll get out of first baseman James Loney, who is probably getting his last full-time shot to show that he can be a consistent run producer. And Tampa Bay's Yunel Escobar experiment will be fascinating; just as the Blue Jays did, they're betting that his talent (and the incredible team-friendly contract) will outweigh all his personality quirks and perceived lack of focus. But no matter what they get out of Loney and Escobar, the Rays should have two bedrocks in their infield, health permitting: Third baseman Evan Longoria and second baseman Ben Zobrist. Over Longoria's last 207 games, he has 48 homers and 154 RBIs, while playing in a home ballpark that's not exactly hitter-friendly, and Zobrist is a WAR superstar; he finished 16th in the majors in 2012 (FanGraphs' version) and 11th in 2011.
The X factor: Escobar. One of the folks in the Toronto organization summed up the shortstop in this way: "Every day, he makes at least one major mistake on defense or running the bases." That's a tendency that runs counter to the Rays' working philosophy, of course; Tampa Bay needs to be efficient. But Escobar is also capable of game-changing at-bats and superlative defense. The question is whether he'll drive the Rays crazy while they wait for those moments -- which is what happened in Atlanta and in Toronto. There's a reason someone who is perceived to be so talented has bounced to four teams (including the Marlins) in four seasons.
5. New York Yankees
Robinson Cano is the game's best second baseman, and if the contract-year theory applies in his case -- he's eligible for free agency in the fall -- he could contend for the MVP award, again. Around him, there are stars capable of great things, even as older players: Derek Jeter led the majors in hits last season, at age 38. Mark Teixeira had 52 extra-base hits in 123 games in what was perceived to be a down year for him in 2012. Only two seasons ago, Kevin Youkilis posted a .411 on-base percentage for the Red Sox. And sometime in midseason, the Yankees believe, Alex Rodriguez will be back from his surgery.
The X factor: The ravages of age; the Yankees are hanging on the physical cliff. Jeter is coming back from a broken leg and, as he has noted himself with some humor, he has reached the age when everybody wonders, year to year, if he can still play. Teixeira turns 33 in April and his OPS has dropped each of the last four seasons:
2008: .962
2009: .948
2010: .846
2011: .835
2012: .807
There was a difference of about 400 OPS points in Youkilis' home/road splits last season, which was a red flag for some teams. Given that Rodriguez is 37 and has now had major surgery on both hips, the Yankees really have no idea whether he can be an effective player anymore.
6. Atlanta Braves
It's still not entirely clear how the Braves will replace Chipper Jones at third base; Martin Prado could be the full-time third baseman, or Atlanta could work the powerful Juan Francisco into the mix against some right-handed pitchers and shift Prado to left field on some days. No matter how the Braves decide to go, however, their infield should be one of the best, now that Andrelton Simmons is established as one of the sport's best young shortstops and Freddie Freeman is emerging as a run-producer. Freeman was hampered for weeks by eye trouble -- which has since been fixed -- but still closed the year with 58 extra-base hits after having a strong second half.
The X factor: The Braves need more peaks than valleys from Dan Uggla, whose slugging percentage has dropped from .503 in 2010 to .453 in 2011 to .384 last year.
7. Toronto Blue Jays
It's a group that seems to have excellent potential: Edwin Encarnacion at first base, coming off a season in which he clubbed 42 homers and drove in 110 runs; shortstop Jose Reyes, winner of the NL batting title two years ago; Emilio Bonifacio and Maicer Izturis at second base; and the crazily talented Brett Lawrie at third base, where he has quickly adapted defensively. But as with all teams, there are questions: Is Encarnacion just a late bloomer, like Jose Bautista, or a one-year wonder? Can Reyes, who has a long history of leg problems, stay healthy while playing on Toronto's artificial surface? How much will Bonifacio -- who has been successful in 82 of 96 stolen-base attempts over the last three seasons -- contribute as a regular player?
The X factor: When you listen to rival evaluators talk about Lawrie, they sound like old cowboys talking about a mustang they saw running across the range. Lawrie impresses the heck out of them with his physical tools and his passion, yet they have doubts about whether he can ever be reined in and refined in a way that allows him to become an elite player. "Totally out of control," said one longtime rival coach, noting that at times, it looks like Lawrie will just keep running on the bases until somebody tags him out. Lawrie posted an OPS of .729 last season, and his average of pitches per plate appearance declined significantly, from 4.07 to 3.66. Remember, he's just 22; he turns 23 in a couple of weeks. Clearly, Lawrie could be a great player. Or not.
8. Washington Nationals
Within the industry, the expectation is that Washington will eventually re-sign Adam LaRoche -- and if that happens, the Nationals would have a top-five infield, with third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, shortstop Ian Desmond and second baseman Danny Espinosa. Keep in mind, too, that third-base prospect Anthony Rendon, a high-impact hitter taken in the 2011 draft, could advance to the big leagues sometime in 2013, though the presence of Zimmerman makes his future position unclear.
The X factor: LaRoche. He wants a three-year deal; the Nationals have been offering two years. Because Washington gave him a qualifying offer, he is tied to draft-pick compensation, which has scared off some other teams.
9. San Francisco Giants
The fact that Marco Scutaro got a three-year deal was a stunner in other front offices, but hey, all the Giants saw from him, in his three months with the team, was excellence. Scutaro, who turned 37 in October, hit .362 in the regular season for the Giants, before batting .328 in the postseason. Brandon Crawford might be baseball's best defensive shortstop, and he hit a respectable .260 in the second half of the season. Brandon Belt might have finally established himself as a regular for the Giants, after posting a .781 OPS last season.
The X factor: One of the interesting questions of the Giants' spring training will be the physical condition of Pablo Sandoval, who put on a lot of weight last season -- and helped San Francisco win the World Series, anyway, hitting .325 with six homers in 83 postseason at-bats. Some rival evaluators fretted during October that his success would take him away from good habits through the winter -- and given the structure of their team, the Giants really need him to be an effective player, whatever his weight.
10. Kansas City Royals
There could be a year when the Royals could be at the very top of this list, depending on the development of corner infielders Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas. Some scouts thought Moustakas wore down over his first full season in the big leagues -- his OPS dropped from .817 in the first half to .586 in the second half -- but he had a good year defensively. Hosmer started slowly in 2012, hitting .188 in April, and was never really able to bounce back. But his struggles didn't diminish the perception of him as a player of great potential -- and there may not be a player in the majors whose development is more crucial to his team for the upcoming season than him. Shortstop Alcides Escobar has already made solid improvement at the plate, pushing his OPS upward by 100 points over the last two seasons and becoming one of the most efficient base-stealers in the majors; he had 35 in 40 attempts last season. His defense is well-regarded by rival evaluators, but now that he's 26, the Royals would probably like to see some of his defensive mistakes cleaned up.
The X factor: Hosmer. If he climbs back onto the trajectory scouts saw him on in 2011, the Royals' lineup will look very different.
Best of the rest
Cleveland Indians
They have hung onto shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera after listening to offers for him, and given the additions of Terry Francona, Nick Swisher, Trevor Bauer and now Brett Myers, it figures Cleveland will at least let the first half of the season play out before considering dealing Cabrera again. He is the anchor to what should be a good infield: Mark Reynolds at first base, where he played well defensively for the Orioles last year; second baseman Jason Kipnis, who had a solid 2012 season of 40 extra-base hits and 31 steals; and Lonnie Chisenhall and Mike Aviles at third.
The X factor: The presence of Francona. The Indians completely collapsed in the second half of last season, a collective disintegration that seemed to take down numbers for a whole bunch of players. Whether you want to attribute that to frustration or a lack of focus, it would seem that the Indians have a better chance of playing all the way through the whole season this year.
St. Louis Cardinals
Allen Craig has developed into one of the game's best-hitting first basemen, and now, with Lance Berkman gone, the position belongs to him. Third baseman David Freese probably wasn't as consistent as he would've liked, but in the end he posted a year of an .839 OPS and 20 homers. There are questions for St. Louis at shortstop and second base, which is why the Cards talked to the Indians about Cabrera in the offseason.
Houston's transition
The Houston Astros are moving to the American League for the 2013 at a time when they are coming off a 55-win season and are still early in a total organizational reconstruction. Because of this, their switch could lead to a tangible shift in a divisional balance of power.
Rival officials have privately noted that the Astros' move to the AL West could help those teams make the playoffs. But there is statistical data that suggests the Houston move could simultaneously hurt their former brethren in the NL Central.
In response to a request from ESPN about the impact of the Astros' shift to the AL, Stephen Oh of AccuScore sent along these notes:
"I was able to run a season simulation with our projected lineups. Our actual [formal] win forecast is still very subject to change, but the initial numbers for the impact of wins on the two divisions most impacted by the Houston re-alignment are pretty interesting:
• The Angels, Rangers, A's and Mariners see an average of plus-3.2 wins with Houston in their division.
• The NL Central teams see a drop of -2.7 wins on average.
• The difference in wins results in a plus-3.4 percent chance of making the playoffs for the AL West teams and a minus-3.4 percent impact on the NL Central teams of making the playoffs.
• The AL Central and East teams improve their wins slightly, but their playoff chances dip slightly because of the more significant bump by the AL West teams [that will play more games against Houston].
• The NL West and NL East teams see win totals go down slightly but playoff odds go up slightly."
Here are more details, from AccuScore, which simulated the season with current rosters based on 2012 and 2013 alignments.
Rising west
Projecting the current roster of every AL West team using the 2012 and 2013 alignments.
AL WEST '12 wins '13 wins '12 playoff odds '13 playoff odds
Angels 91.4 96.5 80.1% 91.9%
Rangers 85.4 86.7 43.4% 41.2%
Athletics 83.9 85.7 33.7% 34.3%
Mariners 73.9 78.3 2.6% 5.9%
Astros 54.2 54.0 0.0% 0.0%
AVG (Excluding HOU) 83.7 86.8 39.9% 43.3%
Central demise
Projecting the current roster of every NL Central team using the 2012 and 2013 alignments.
NL CENTRAL '12 wins '13 wins '12 playoff odds '13 playoff
Cardinals 92.7 90.6 63.3% 60.6%
Reds 93.3 90.6 67.4% 60.1%
Brewers 90.9 88.3 52.5% 45.7%
Pirates 71.4 67.9 0.2% 0.1%
Cubs 70.1 67.7 0.1% 0.1%
AVERAGE 83.7 81.0 36.7% 33.3%
Division impact
How the Astros' move affects other divisions.
OTHER DIVISIONS '12 wins '13 wins '12 playoff odds '13 playoff odds
AL CENTRAL 79.8 80.3 37.3% 36.0%
AL EAST 81.2 82.5 30.6% 29.1%
NL EAST 81.1 80.6 33.0% 35.3%
NL WEST 82.5 81.3 30.1% 31.2%
Moves, deals and decisions
1. David Price agreed to terms, for a bit over $10 million. The assumption within the industry is that the Rays are going to trade Price sometime in the next calendar year, a perception that will only be reinforced by this latest one-year agreement.
2. This is a key year for Charlie Manuel, writes Bob Brookover.
3. Brett Myers will move into the Cleveland rotation, after getting a nice endorsement from former Astros Manager Brad Mills, now a coach with the Indians. Right now, their rotation is shaping up this way: Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez and Brett Myers will go into spring training as the projected 1-2-3, and two will be added from the group that includes Scott Kazmir, Carlos Carrasco, Zach McAllister, Corey Kluber, David Huff, Jeanmar Gomez and Bauer.
4. The Seattle Mariners have called the Los Angeles Dodgers repeatedly about Andre Ethier, and while the Dodgers' intention is to open the season with him as their right fielder, they have told other teams all winter that they're always willing to listen to offers. As of now, the Mariners haven't been moved to present any, sources say.
The Rangers' plan is to give Mitch Moreland a chance to establish himself as the first baseman in spring training, but they will also be devoted to the concept of making sure their best players will be in the lineup; if it becomes clear that Jurickson Profar -- who turns 20 next month -- is one of those guys, he'll play. Profar was shut down in winter ball because of an elbow problem, but the Rangers say he's fine now and is ready to go. The left side of the Texas infield is dynamic defensively, with MVP candidate Adrian Beltre at third and the improved Elvis Andrus at shortstop. Andrus is only 24 years old and still developing as an offensive player, and he showed in the first half that he has room to grow.
The X factor: Ian Kinsler. There was a general regression throughout almost every part of the Rangers' lineup as last season progressed, from Josh Hamilton to Michael Young, but Kinsler's decline may have been the most perplexing. At age 30, his OPS slid by 83 points from 2011 to 2012; his WAR went from 7.1 to 2.0 in the same time frame. The damage he did against fastballs dropped considerably last year. As Profar emerges, Kinsler could be asked to change positions and move to first base, as he has acknowledged, but no matter where he plays, the Rangers will need better production out of him than they got last season; when at his best, Kinsler can be an elite hitter, among infielders.
2. Detroit Tigers
Let's get this out of the way: The Tigers' infield defense was the worst in the majors last season because of plays not made, and for a sinker-ball pitcher like Rick Porcello, the lack of range is a problem. But in the end, Detroit reached the World Series largely because of the offensive excellence of Miguel Cabrera, who had the first Triple Crown season in almost half a century, and Prince Fielder, who made a seamless transition in his first season in Detroit. Those two combined for 74 homers and 247 RBIs.
"They're the best 1-2 punch in the big leagues," an AL general manager said recently. A very underrated part of what Cabrera and Fielder provide is their devotion to playing daily: They answer the bell, every day. Over the last seven seasons, Cabrera and Fielder have missed a total of 40 games. Omar Infante seemingly put a lot of pressure on himself after joining the Tigers in a midseason trade, before settling in and playing better down in the last weeks; he should be better this year.
The X factor: Their shortstop situation. The Tigers exercised the 2013 option for Jhonny Peralta, who is steady but limited, especially on defense. But they demonstrated during the winter that they're open to a possible upgrade, and it'll be interesting to see if Peralta holds this position throughout the season, or if Detroit aggressively looks for an alternative during the year.
3. Cincinnati Reds
If Texas has the best left side in baseball, the Reds probably have the best right side, with Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips, who both excel offensively and defensively. Votto will presumably go into this season fully recovered from the multiple rounds of knee surgery he had last year, and with Shin-Soo Choo joining the Reds, Phillips figures to slide into the No. 2 spot in the Cincinnati lineup. Dusty Baker had to work to get Todd Frazier into the lineup at times last season, but with Scott Rolen closer to retirement, Frazier becomes the every-day guy at third, after posting an .829 OPS in 128 games last year. It's worth noting that while the Reds' hitters generally benefit from hitting in a cozy home park, Frazier fared better on the road than at home in 2012, by a good margin -- his OPS away from Cincinnati was 85 points higher, at .871. Shortstop Zack Cozart, 27, has some pop.
The X factor: For the first time in Votto's time with the Reds, the sum of their parts could really help him to a monster season. In recent years, Cincinnati has sometimes lacked a leadoff hitter who consistently gets on base, or good left-handed/right-handed balance, or depth through the 4-5-6 spots in their lineup. But with the addition of Choo at the top of their lineup, the Reds might have the best group they've ever had around Votto, who finished 2012 with a career-high 1.041 OPS. It could be a really big summer for him.
4. Tampa Bay Rays
Sure, nobody knows exactly what they'll get out of first baseman James Loney, who is probably getting his last full-time shot to show that he can be a consistent run producer. And Tampa Bay's Yunel Escobar experiment will be fascinating; just as the Blue Jays did, they're betting that his talent (and the incredible team-friendly contract) will outweigh all his personality quirks and perceived lack of focus. But no matter what they get out of Loney and Escobar, the Rays should have two bedrocks in their infield, health permitting: Third baseman Evan Longoria and second baseman Ben Zobrist. Over Longoria's last 207 games, he has 48 homers and 154 RBIs, while playing in a home ballpark that's not exactly hitter-friendly, and Zobrist is a WAR superstar; he finished 16th in the majors in 2012 (FanGraphs' version) and 11th in 2011.
The X factor: Escobar. One of the folks in the Toronto organization summed up the shortstop in this way: "Every day, he makes at least one major mistake on defense or running the bases." That's a tendency that runs counter to the Rays' working philosophy, of course; Tampa Bay needs to be efficient. But Escobar is also capable of game-changing at-bats and superlative defense. The question is whether he'll drive the Rays crazy while they wait for those moments -- which is what happened in Atlanta and in Toronto. There's a reason someone who is perceived to be so talented has bounced to four teams (including the Marlins) in four seasons.
5. New York Yankees
Robinson Cano is the game's best second baseman, and if the contract-year theory applies in his case -- he's eligible for free agency in the fall -- he could contend for the MVP award, again. Around him, there are stars capable of great things, even as older players: Derek Jeter led the majors in hits last season, at age 38. Mark Teixeira had 52 extra-base hits in 123 games in what was perceived to be a down year for him in 2012. Only two seasons ago, Kevin Youkilis posted a .411 on-base percentage for the Red Sox. And sometime in midseason, the Yankees believe, Alex Rodriguez will be back from his surgery.
The X factor: The ravages of age; the Yankees are hanging on the physical cliff. Jeter is coming back from a broken leg and, as he has noted himself with some humor, he has reached the age when everybody wonders, year to year, if he can still play. Teixeira turns 33 in April and his OPS has dropped each of the last four seasons:
2008: .962
2009: .948
2010: .846
2011: .835
2012: .807
There was a difference of about 400 OPS points in Youkilis' home/road splits last season, which was a red flag for some teams. Given that Rodriguez is 37 and has now had major surgery on both hips, the Yankees really have no idea whether he can be an effective player anymore.
6. Atlanta Braves
It's still not entirely clear how the Braves will replace Chipper Jones at third base; Martin Prado could be the full-time third baseman, or Atlanta could work the powerful Juan Francisco into the mix against some right-handed pitchers and shift Prado to left field on some days. No matter how the Braves decide to go, however, their infield should be one of the best, now that Andrelton Simmons is established as one of the sport's best young shortstops and Freddie Freeman is emerging as a run-producer. Freeman was hampered for weeks by eye trouble -- which has since been fixed -- but still closed the year with 58 extra-base hits after having a strong second half.
The X factor: The Braves need more peaks than valleys from Dan Uggla, whose slugging percentage has dropped from .503 in 2010 to .453 in 2011 to .384 last year.
7. Toronto Blue Jays
It's a group that seems to have excellent potential: Edwin Encarnacion at first base, coming off a season in which he clubbed 42 homers and drove in 110 runs; shortstop Jose Reyes, winner of the NL batting title two years ago; Emilio Bonifacio and Maicer Izturis at second base; and the crazily talented Brett Lawrie at third base, where he has quickly adapted defensively. But as with all teams, there are questions: Is Encarnacion just a late bloomer, like Jose Bautista, or a one-year wonder? Can Reyes, who has a long history of leg problems, stay healthy while playing on Toronto's artificial surface? How much will Bonifacio -- who has been successful in 82 of 96 stolen-base attempts over the last three seasons -- contribute as a regular player?
The X factor: When you listen to rival evaluators talk about Lawrie, they sound like old cowboys talking about a mustang they saw running across the range. Lawrie impresses the heck out of them with his physical tools and his passion, yet they have doubts about whether he can ever be reined in and refined in a way that allows him to become an elite player. "Totally out of control," said one longtime rival coach, noting that at times, it looks like Lawrie will just keep running on the bases until somebody tags him out. Lawrie posted an OPS of .729 last season, and his average of pitches per plate appearance declined significantly, from 4.07 to 3.66. Remember, he's just 22; he turns 23 in a couple of weeks. Clearly, Lawrie could be a great player. Or not.
8. Washington Nationals
Within the industry, the expectation is that Washington will eventually re-sign Adam LaRoche -- and if that happens, the Nationals would have a top-five infield, with third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, shortstop Ian Desmond and second baseman Danny Espinosa. Keep in mind, too, that third-base prospect Anthony Rendon, a high-impact hitter taken in the 2011 draft, could advance to the big leagues sometime in 2013, though the presence of Zimmerman makes his future position unclear.
The X factor: LaRoche. He wants a three-year deal; the Nationals have been offering two years. Because Washington gave him a qualifying offer, he is tied to draft-pick compensation, which has scared off some other teams.
9. San Francisco Giants
The fact that Marco Scutaro got a three-year deal was a stunner in other front offices, but hey, all the Giants saw from him, in his three months with the team, was excellence. Scutaro, who turned 37 in October, hit .362 in the regular season for the Giants, before batting .328 in the postseason. Brandon Crawford might be baseball's best defensive shortstop, and he hit a respectable .260 in the second half of the season. Brandon Belt might have finally established himself as a regular for the Giants, after posting a .781 OPS last season.
The X factor: One of the interesting questions of the Giants' spring training will be the physical condition of Pablo Sandoval, who put on a lot of weight last season -- and helped San Francisco win the World Series, anyway, hitting .325 with six homers in 83 postseason at-bats. Some rival evaluators fretted during October that his success would take him away from good habits through the winter -- and given the structure of their team, the Giants really need him to be an effective player, whatever his weight.
10. Kansas City Royals
There could be a year when the Royals could be at the very top of this list, depending on the development of corner infielders Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas. Some scouts thought Moustakas wore down over his first full season in the big leagues -- his OPS dropped from .817 in the first half to .586 in the second half -- but he had a good year defensively. Hosmer started slowly in 2012, hitting .188 in April, and was never really able to bounce back. But his struggles didn't diminish the perception of him as a player of great potential -- and there may not be a player in the majors whose development is more crucial to his team for the upcoming season than him. Shortstop Alcides Escobar has already made solid improvement at the plate, pushing his OPS upward by 100 points over the last two seasons and becoming one of the most efficient base-stealers in the majors; he had 35 in 40 attempts last season. His defense is well-regarded by rival evaluators, but now that he's 26, the Royals would probably like to see some of his defensive mistakes cleaned up.
The X factor: Hosmer. If he climbs back onto the trajectory scouts saw him on in 2011, the Royals' lineup will look very different.
Best of the rest
Cleveland Indians
They have hung onto shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera after listening to offers for him, and given the additions of Terry Francona, Nick Swisher, Trevor Bauer and now Brett Myers, it figures Cleveland will at least let the first half of the season play out before considering dealing Cabrera again. He is the anchor to what should be a good infield: Mark Reynolds at first base, where he played well defensively for the Orioles last year; second baseman Jason Kipnis, who had a solid 2012 season of 40 extra-base hits and 31 steals; and Lonnie Chisenhall and Mike Aviles at third.
The X factor: The presence of Francona. The Indians completely collapsed in the second half of last season, a collective disintegration that seemed to take down numbers for a whole bunch of players. Whether you want to attribute that to frustration or a lack of focus, it would seem that the Indians have a better chance of playing all the way through the whole season this year.
St. Louis Cardinals
Allen Craig has developed into one of the game's best-hitting first basemen, and now, with Lance Berkman gone, the position belongs to him. Third baseman David Freese probably wasn't as consistent as he would've liked, but in the end he posted a year of an .839 OPS and 20 homers. There are questions for St. Louis at shortstop and second base, which is why the Cards talked to the Indians about Cabrera in the offseason.
Houston's transition
The Houston Astros are moving to the American League for the 2013 at a time when they are coming off a 55-win season and are still early in a total organizational reconstruction. Because of this, their switch could lead to a tangible shift in a divisional balance of power.
Rival officials have privately noted that the Astros' move to the AL West could help those teams make the playoffs. But there is statistical data that suggests the Houston move could simultaneously hurt their former brethren in the NL Central.
In response to a request from ESPN about the impact of the Astros' shift to the AL, Stephen Oh of AccuScore sent along these notes:
"I was able to run a season simulation with our projected lineups. Our actual [formal] win forecast is still very subject to change, but the initial numbers for the impact of wins on the two divisions most impacted by the Houston re-alignment are pretty interesting:
• The Angels, Rangers, A's and Mariners see an average of plus-3.2 wins with Houston in their division.
• The NL Central teams see a drop of -2.7 wins on average.
• The difference in wins results in a plus-3.4 percent chance of making the playoffs for the AL West teams and a minus-3.4 percent impact on the NL Central teams of making the playoffs.
• The AL Central and East teams improve their wins slightly, but their playoff chances dip slightly because of the more significant bump by the AL West teams [that will play more games against Houston].
• The NL West and NL East teams see win totals go down slightly but playoff odds go up slightly."
Here are more details, from AccuScore, which simulated the season with current rosters based on 2012 and 2013 alignments.
Rising west
Projecting the current roster of every AL West team using the 2012 and 2013 alignments.
AL WEST '12 wins '13 wins '12 playoff odds '13 playoff odds
Angels 91.4 96.5 80.1% 91.9%
Rangers 85.4 86.7 43.4% 41.2%
Athletics 83.9 85.7 33.7% 34.3%
Mariners 73.9 78.3 2.6% 5.9%
Astros 54.2 54.0 0.0% 0.0%
AVG (Excluding HOU) 83.7 86.8 39.9% 43.3%
Central demise
Projecting the current roster of every NL Central team using the 2012 and 2013 alignments.
NL CENTRAL '12 wins '13 wins '12 playoff odds '13 playoff
Cardinals 92.7 90.6 63.3% 60.6%
Reds 93.3 90.6 67.4% 60.1%
Brewers 90.9 88.3 52.5% 45.7%
Pirates 71.4 67.9 0.2% 0.1%
Cubs 70.1 67.7 0.1% 0.1%
AVERAGE 83.7 81.0 36.7% 33.3%
Division impact
How the Astros' move affects other divisions.
OTHER DIVISIONS '12 wins '13 wins '12 playoff odds '13 playoff odds
AL CENTRAL 79.8 80.3 37.3% 36.0%
AL EAST 81.2 82.5 30.6% 29.1%
NL EAST 81.1 80.6 33.0% 35.3%
NL WEST 82.5 81.3 30.1% 31.2%
Moves, deals and decisions
1. David Price agreed to terms, for a bit over $10 million. The assumption within the industry is that the Rays are going to trade Price sometime in the next calendar year, a perception that will only be reinforced by this latest one-year agreement.
2. This is a key year for Charlie Manuel, writes Bob Brookover.
3. Brett Myers will move into the Cleveland rotation, after getting a nice endorsement from former Astros Manager Brad Mills, now a coach with the Indians. Right now, their rotation is shaping up this way: Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez and Brett Myers will go into spring training as the projected 1-2-3, and two will be added from the group that includes Scott Kazmir, Carlos Carrasco, Zach McAllister, Corey Kluber, David Huff, Jeanmar Gomez and Bauer.
4. The Seattle Mariners have called the Los Angeles Dodgers repeatedly about Andre Ethier, and while the Dodgers' intention is to open the season with him as their right fielder, they have told other teams all winter that they're always willing to listen to offers. As of now, the Mariners haven't been moved to present any, sources say.
Top 10 outfields in MLB.
1. Los Angeles Angels
This group has a chance to be something really special. Mike Trout has one full season in the big leagues, and it was merely one of the greatest single-season performances in the history of baseball. Josh Hamilton, signed for $125 million this winter, is merely one of the most dynamic hitters in baseball. And Peter Bourjos, who is expected to be the third member of the outfield, is merely regarded as one of the best defenders in the sport; he ranked No. 1 in UZR/150 among outfielders with 400 or more defensive innings in 2012.
For the sake of this discussion, we're going to assume that the bulk of Mark Trumbo's at-bats will be as the designated hitter, but even with that, it would seem possible -- although improbable -- that the Angels' trio could generate 100 steals and 100 homers. Ninety-ninety is probably a more reasonable projection, with 100-100 as the goal.
Something to remember: Part of the reason why rival evaluators believe Trout will continue to be a great player is that his approach at the plate is so simple, with mechanics that are easily repeated, and the adjustments he makes from at-bat to at-bat are so sound.
Look at Trout versus opposing starting pitchers (from baseballreference.com.) as the game progresses:
First PA vs. starting pitcher: .860 OPS
Second PA vs. SP: 1.042
Third PA vs. SP: 1.198
Fourth PA vs. SP: 1.244
2. Washington Nationals
With the acquisition of Denard Span, Washington GM Mike Rizzo finally was able to get the pure center fielder he had been looking for, and now Bryce Harper and Jayson Werth can be committed to the corners for the foreseeable future. The trio is good defensively, but even better offensively, with all three capable of getting on base at a good rate (Werth had a .387 on-base percentage last year, ranking 16th in the majors for hitters with at least 300 plate appearances). It's possible that Span, Werth and Harper could eventually hit 1-2-3 in the Washington lineup.
Something to remember: At age 19, Trout had his struggles early -- before erupting at age 20. Harper had arguably one of the greatest seasons for any 19-year-old, and coming into this year, he will be armed with all the knowledge accumulated last year. He will know that opposing pitchers are going to feed him a steady series of breaking balls. Only two hitters saw a higher percentage last year: Hamilton and Alfonso Soriano.
He will know the pitchers. It's worth noting, again, the steady incline in his performance in the final months of the season. Harper's OPS by month:
May .860
June .779
July .619
August .748
September 1.049
3. Oakland Athletics
They have tremendous depth, with the quartet of Josh Reddick, Yoenis Cespedes, Chris Young and Coco Crisp, and excellent defense -- which really fits their spacious home park and aids the pitching. At age 25, Reddick took a big step forward, accumulating 66 extra-base hits, 32 homers among them. The timing of Young's arrival in Oakland seems perfect for him: There won't be a lot of pressure on him after years of being compared to his potential in Arizona, and having known Chili Davis for 15 years, I'd bet that he and Young will work well together; Davis is low-key in his demeanor and methodical, and this will help Young.
Something to remember: Cespedes immediately impressed his teammates with his toughness, with his ability to shrug off a poor at-bat and adjust in subsequent at-bats. Like Trout, he is just getting to know major league pitchers, and as with Trout, there were signs of in-game alterations during games last season. Check out his OPS progression in each at bat:
First plate appearance vs. a starter: .867 OPS, 26 strikeouts in 118 at-bats
Second plate appearance vs. a starter: .999 OPS, 14 strikeouts in 109 at-bats
Third plate appearance vs. a starter: .987 OPS, 16 strikeouts in 86 at-bats
4. Los Angeles Dodgers
It's the outfield with the most star power, for sure: Matt Kemp in center, flanked by Carl Crawford in left field and Andre Ethier in right. Kemp was plagued by injuries and limited to 106 games, and still managed to hit .303 with 23 homers, and Ethier finished the season with 20 homers and 89 RBIs. Crawford missed almost all of last season with elbow trouble before having Tommy John surgery, and he may not be ready for the very beginning of the 2012 season. If each of the three match their best seasons from the past, this group could be the best in the majors, with power, speed and defense. But a significant factor will be how Ethier and Crawford fare against the parade of left-handers they will see, especially in the later innings of games.
Ethier had an OPS of .606 versus lefties last season, and Crawford had even worse numbers (OPS of .566) against lefties while playing for Boston in 2011. Kemp did a ton of damage against lefties last year, with a 1.105 OPS, and the Dodgers will need him to continue that trend, because he's going to see a ton of lefties while hitting among Crawford, Ethier and Adrian Gonzalez.
Something to remember: The Dodgers' payroll is going to be far beyond the luxury tax, and the team's management has a distinct win-or-bust, Steinbrenneresque style of operation right now. If Crawford or Ethier struggle against lefties and the Dodgers suffer in the standings, it's hard to imagine the front office waiting patiently for them to figure out their swings. They're more likely to pursue a right-handed-hitting outfielder who can help balance the lineup -- which might explain why they were open to retaining Shane Victorino for 2013.
5. St. Louis Cardinals
Left fielder Matt Holliday had a typical season of run production, with 27 homers, 95 runs and 102 RBIs in 157 games, and right fielder Carlos Beltran had 59 extra-base hits, including 32 homers. Center fielder Jon Jay took a big step forward as an offensive player, hitting .305 in 117 games, with a .373 on-base percentage; he progressed from 3.63 pitches per plate appearance in 2011 to 3.85 last season, a sign of an improved approach.
Something to remember: Beltran played in 151 games last season, his most since 2008, but he will be 36 years old in April. Given his history of knee trouble, he has reached that stage of his career when the Cardinals will presumably have some contingency plans built in. Beltran was a very good player in 2012, but his OPS of .841 was his lowest over a full season since his first year with the Mets, and his 124 strikeouts were his most since 2002.
6. Cincinnati Reds
Jay Bruce is one of the best overall outfielders in the majors, Shin-Soo Choo can get on base, steal bases and throw, and Ryan Ludwick is coming off a season in which he clubbed 26 homers in 125 games. The only question about the Reds' outfield is how they will be aligned. Their plan going into spring training is for Choo to play center field, but rival evaluators believe that eventually, Bruce will be shifted to center and Choo will move to right.
Something to remember: Bruce is 25 and still developing as a hitter, and there may not be a hitter who has been more defined by what happens early in the count. In those plate appearances in which he moved ahead in the count by taking the first pitch out of the zone, he posted a .929 OPS. When he fell behind 0-1, however, he had a .608 OPS. The difference in his results, depending on the count, was much more acute than that for a lot of hitters -- he had a .421 OPS in at-bats that ended when he was behind in the count, 1.009 when the count was even, 1.032 when he was ahead.
7. Milwaukee Brewers
Left fielder Ryan Braun is one of the game's best hitters, and Norichika Aoki is one of the game's most underrated hitters. In his first year in the majors, the 30-year-old Aoki hit a solid .288/.355/.788 line with 30 stolen bases, and his production home and away was almost identical -- a .789 OPS in Milwaukee, .785 on the road. Carlos Gomez improved last season -- he had 37 stolen bases and 19 homers -- and with his free agency looming next fall, this will be an important year for him.
Something to remember: Opposing pitchers talked in spring training about how Braun would see fewer pitches to hit because of the departure of Prince Fielder -- but it made no difference. In Braun's six seasons in the majors, he has 614 runs, 643 RBIs, 202 homers and 126 stolen bases. He has demonstrated time and again a unique ability to square up pitches. Check out his career numbers in hitters' counts, when he can anticipate fastballs:
2-0 count: 1.329 OPS, 6 homers in 51 plate appearances
3-1 count: 1.686 OPS, 6 homers in 161 PA
3-0 count: 2.000 OPS, 3-for-3
8. Atlanta Braves
The only reason why they're not higher on this list is that it's unclear how often Martin Prado will be in left field. It could be that the bulk of Prado's playing time will be as Chipper Jones' replacement, and if that's the case, then the Braves will fill left with some kind of platoon of Reed Johnson and some left-handed hitter to be named. B.J. Upton takes over in center field, and Jason Heyward will be in right field.
Something to remember: Heyward improved dramatically in every way possible last season, from his approach at the plate to his defense, and he's just 23 years old. His next big challenge will be to learn to cope with left-handed pitchers, something that he and Freddie Freeman will see a lot of in the late innings. Last year, Heyward had an OPS of .934 versus right-handers, and .635 versus lefties; 20 of his 27 homers came against lefties. Heyward has demonstrated the ability to take the ball through the middle and to left field -- check out his numbers according to where he hits the ball here -- and that could be crucial in his adjustments against lefties.
9. Arizona Diamondbacks
Somebody's going to be traded, but whether that's Jason Kubel or Justin Upton, Arizona should have a deep and diverse outfield, a group that includes left-handed and right-handed hitters, good defenders, speed and power. Cody Ross wrecks left-handed pitchers, Gerardo Parra is one of the sport's better outfielders, and in a small sample of 102 plate appearances in September, Adam Eaton showed an ability to get on base.
Something worth remembering: If Kubel is dealt and Upton returns, Upton will be in the vortex of a lot of attention -- about his relationship with the team, about the quality of his at-bats, especially on the road. Upton posted a .670 OPS while hitting away from home last season. He is seeing fewer and fewer four-seam fastballs, according to FanGraphs data:
2009: 50.0 percent of pitches
2010: 38.7 percent of pitches
2011: 33.5 percent of pitches
2012: 30.9 percent of pitches
10. Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles have Nick Markakis in right field and Adam Jones in center field, and manager Buck Showalter used an amalgam of players in left, from Nate McLouth to Lew Ford. The Orioles are hopeful that Nolan Reimold will be back and able to play more this season, and when healthy, he's a good offensive player.
Something to remember: Jones is one of those players who has been talked about for so long that it seems he would be 31 years old. In fact, he's just 27, and figures to continue to grow and learn as a hitter. There has generally been a slow and steady climb in Jones's OPS in his career:
2008: .711
2009: .792
2010: .767
2011: .785
2012: .839
He had 74 extra-base hits in 2012; only seven players in the majors had more. For Jones, the next step as a hitter will be to continue to narrow his strike zone -- as opposed to expanding it, something he did during the Orioles' series against the Yankees in the postseason.
The best of the rest
Detroit Tigers: With Austin Jackson in center, Torii Hunter in right and a combination of Andy Dirks and Avisail Garcia in left. Some rival evaluators believe there will be notable regression in Hunter's offensive production this year, after he hit .389 on balls he put in play last year.
Toronto Blue Jays: They could have one of the best outfields in the majors, depending on three factors:
1. Does Jose Bautista bounce back from an injury-plagued 2012, in which he hit .241 in 92 games?
2. Does Colby Rasmus progress, in what seems to be a tipping-point season for him? He had a .689 OPS last year, and at age 26, potential must start to translate.
3. Is Melky Cabrera for real, or is his performance a product of drugs? He was one of the best players in the NL before getting busted last year, after being viewed as a fourth-outfielder type by the Yankees and Braves and other teams in his career. The fact that Cabrera signed a two-year deal with the Jays -- rather than bet heavily on himself to bounce back on a one-year deal -- could mean that he has his own questions.
Colorado Rockies: They have a seemingly talented group in Carlos Gonzalez, Dexter Fowler, Michael Cuddyer and Tyler Colvin. But the home/road splits with the Colorado hitters always seem to raise questions about their level of excellence. Look at the home OPS and home runs against the road OPS/home runs:
Gonzalez: 1.046/13 at home, .706/9 on the road
Fowler: .984/10 at home, .720/3 on the road
Cuddyer: .858/9 at home, .744/7 on the road
Colvin: 1.032/11 at home, .687/7 on the road
The defensive metrics for the Colorado outfielders are so bad that they've even raised some red flags, for some team analysts, about whether they can even be applied to Rockies players.
Notables
• Ryan Freel's family has given the go-ahead for his brain to be studied for trauma, as they look for answers in the aftermath of his suicide, writes Mike Tierney.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. The Royals signed a couple of veterans in Miguel Tejada and Endy Chavez. These are two veterans who have been on successful teams, and Tejada is renowned as one of the big energy guys in baseball; he's had a nice showing in winter ball, hitting .284 for Aguilas.
2. Matt Carpenter wants to give himself a chance to play second base, writes Derrick Goold.
3. The Yankees' payroll currently stands at $189 million, David Waldstein writes.
4. The Red Sox watched Bobby Abreu work out.
This group has a chance to be something really special. Mike Trout has one full season in the big leagues, and it was merely one of the greatest single-season performances in the history of baseball. Josh Hamilton, signed for $125 million this winter, is merely one of the most dynamic hitters in baseball. And Peter Bourjos, who is expected to be the third member of the outfield, is merely regarded as one of the best defenders in the sport; he ranked No. 1 in UZR/150 among outfielders with 400 or more defensive innings in 2012.
For the sake of this discussion, we're going to assume that the bulk of Mark Trumbo's at-bats will be as the designated hitter, but even with that, it would seem possible -- although improbable -- that the Angels' trio could generate 100 steals and 100 homers. Ninety-ninety is probably a more reasonable projection, with 100-100 as the goal.
Something to remember: Part of the reason why rival evaluators believe Trout will continue to be a great player is that his approach at the plate is so simple, with mechanics that are easily repeated, and the adjustments he makes from at-bat to at-bat are so sound.
Look at Trout versus opposing starting pitchers (from baseballreference.com.) as the game progresses:
First PA vs. starting pitcher: .860 OPS
Second PA vs. SP: 1.042
Third PA vs. SP: 1.198
Fourth PA vs. SP: 1.244
2. Washington Nationals
With the acquisition of Denard Span, Washington GM Mike Rizzo finally was able to get the pure center fielder he had been looking for, and now Bryce Harper and Jayson Werth can be committed to the corners for the foreseeable future. The trio is good defensively, but even better offensively, with all three capable of getting on base at a good rate (Werth had a .387 on-base percentage last year, ranking 16th in the majors for hitters with at least 300 plate appearances). It's possible that Span, Werth and Harper could eventually hit 1-2-3 in the Washington lineup.
Something to remember: At age 19, Trout had his struggles early -- before erupting at age 20. Harper had arguably one of the greatest seasons for any 19-year-old, and coming into this year, he will be armed with all the knowledge accumulated last year. He will know that opposing pitchers are going to feed him a steady series of breaking balls. Only two hitters saw a higher percentage last year: Hamilton and Alfonso Soriano.
He will know the pitchers. It's worth noting, again, the steady incline in his performance in the final months of the season. Harper's OPS by month:
May .860
June .779
July .619
August .748
September 1.049
3. Oakland Athletics
They have tremendous depth, with the quartet of Josh Reddick, Yoenis Cespedes, Chris Young and Coco Crisp, and excellent defense -- which really fits their spacious home park and aids the pitching. At age 25, Reddick took a big step forward, accumulating 66 extra-base hits, 32 homers among them. The timing of Young's arrival in Oakland seems perfect for him: There won't be a lot of pressure on him after years of being compared to his potential in Arizona, and having known Chili Davis for 15 years, I'd bet that he and Young will work well together; Davis is low-key in his demeanor and methodical, and this will help Young.
Something to remember: Cespedes immediately impressed his teammates with his toughness, with his ability to shrug off a poor at-bat and adjust in subsequent at-bats. Like Trout, he is just getting to know major league pitchers, and as with Trout, there were signs of in-game alterations during games last season. Check out his OPS progression in each at bat:
First plate appearance vs. a starter: .867 OPS, 26 strikeouts in 118 at-bats
Second plate appearance vs. a starter: .999 OPS, 14 strikeouts in 109 at-bats
Third plate appearance vs. a starter: .987 OPS, 16 strikeouts in 86 at-bats
4. Los Angeles Dodgers
It's the outfield with the most star power, for sure: Matt Kemp in center, flanked by Carl Crawford in left field and Andre Ethier in right. Kemp was plagued by injuries and limited to 106 games, and still managed to hit .303 with 23 homers, and Ethier finished the season with 20 homers and 89 RBIs. Crawford missed almost all of last season with elbow trouble before having Tommy John surgery, and he may not be ready for the very beginning of the 2012 season. If each of the three match their best seasons from the past, this group could be the best in the majors, with power, speed and defense. But a significant factor will be how Ethier and Crawford fare against the parade of left-handers they will see, especially in the later innings of games.
Ethier had an OPS of .606 versus lefties last season, and Crawford had even worse numbers (OPS of .566) against lefties while playing for Boston in 2011. Kemp did a ton of damage against lefties last year, with a 1.105 OPS, and the Dodgers will need him to continue that trend, because he's going to see a ton of lefties while hitting among Crawford, Ethier and Adrian Gonzalez.
Something to remember: The Dodgers' payroll is going to be far beyond the luxury tax, and the team's management has a distinct win-or-bust, Steinbrenneresque style of operation right now. If Crawford or Ethier struggle against lefties and the Dodgers suffer in the standings, it's hard to imagine the front office waiting patiently for them to figure out their swings. They're more likely to pursue a right-handed-hitting outfielder who can help balance the lineup -- which might explain why they were open to retaining Shane Victorino for 2013.
5. St. Louis Cardinals
Left fielder Matt Holliday had a typical season of run production, with 27 homers, 95 runs and 102 RBIs in 157 games, and right fielder Carlos Beltran had 59 extra-base hits, including 32 homers. Center fielder Jon Jay took a big step forward as an offensive player, hitting .305 in 117 games, with a .373 on-base percentage; he progressed from 3.63 pitches per plate appearance in 2011 to 3.85 last season, a sign of an improved approach.
Something to remember: Beltran played in 151 games last season, his most since 2008, but he will be 36 years old in April. Given his history of knee trouble, he has reached that stage of his career when the Cardinals will presumably have some contingency plans built in. Beltran was a very good player in 2012, but his OPS of .841 was his lowest over a full season since his first year with the Mets, and his 124 strikeouts were his most since 2002.
6. Cincinnati Reds
Jay Bruce is one of the best overall outfielders in the majors, Shin-Soo Choo can get on base, steal bases and throw, and Ryan Ludwick is coming off a season in which he clubbed 26 homers in 125 games. The only question about the Reds' outfield is how they will be aligned. Their plan going into spring training is for Choo to play center field, but rival evaluators believe that eventually, Bruce will be shifted to center and Choo will move to right.
Something to remember: Bruce is 25 and still developing as a hitter, and there may not be a hitter who has been more defined by what happens early in the count. In those plate appearances in which he moved ahead in the count by taking the first pitch out of the zone, he posted a .929 OPS. When he fell behind 0-1, however, he had a .608 OPS. The difference in his results, depending on the count, was much more acute than that for a lot of hitters -- he had a .421 OPS in at-bats that ended when he was behind in the count, 1.009 when the count was even, 1.032 when he was ahead.
7. Milwaukee Brewers
Left fielder Ryan Braun is one of the game's best hitters, and Norichika Aoki is one of the game's most underrated hitters. In his first year in the majors, the 30-year-old Aoki hit a solid .288/.355/.788 line with 30 stolen bases, and his production home and away was almost identical -- a .789 OPS in Milwaukee, .785 on the road. Carlos Gomez improved last season -- he had 37 stolen bases and 19 homers -- and with his free agency looming next fall, this will be an important year for him.
Something to remember: Opposing pitchers talked in spring training about how Braun would see fewer pitches to hit because of the departure of Prince Fielder -- but it made no difference. In Braun's six seasons in the majors, he has 614 runs, 643 RBIs, 202 homers and 126 stolen bases. He has demonstrated time and again a unique ability to square up pitches. Check out his career numbers in hitters' counts, when he can anticipate fastballs:
2-0 count: 1.329 OPS, 6 homers in 51 plate appearances
3-1 count: 1.686 OPS, 6 homers in 161 PA
3-0 count: 2.000 OPS, 3-for-3
8. Atlanta Braves
The only reason why they're not higher on this list is that it's unclear how often Martin Prado will be in left field. It could be that the bulk of Prado's playing time will be as Chipper Jones' replacement, and if that's the case, then the Braves will fill left with some kind of platoon of Reed Johnson and some left-handed hitter to be named. B.J. Upton takes over in center field, and Jason Heyward will be in right field.
Something to remember: Heyward improved dramatically in every way possible last season, from his approach at the plate to his defense, and he's just 23 years old. His next big challenge will be to learn to cope with left-handed pitchers, something that he and Freddie Freeman will see a lot of in the late innings. Last year, Heyward had an OPS of .934 versus right-handers, and .635 versus lefties; 20 of his 27 homers came against lefties. Heyward has demonstrated the ability to take the ball through the middle and to left field -- check out his numbers according to where he hits the ball here -- and that could be crucial in his adjustments against lefties.
9. Arizona Diamondbacks
Somebody's going to be traded, but whether that's Jason Kubel or Justin Upton, Arizona should have a deep and diverse outfield, a group that includes left-handed and right-handed hitters, good defenders, speed and power. Cody Ross wrecks left-handed pitchers, Gerardo Parra is one of the sport's better outfielders, and in a small sample of 102 plate appearances in September, Adam Eaton showed an ability to get on base.
Something worth remembering: If Kubel is dealt and Upton returns, Upton will be in the vortex of a lot of attention -- about his relationship with the team, about the quality of his at-bats, especially on the road. Upton posted a .670 OPS while hitting away from home last season. He is seeing fewer and fewer four-seam fastballs, according to FanGraphs data:
2009: 50.0 percent of pitches
2010: 38.7 percent of pitches
2011: 33.5 percent of pitches
2012: 30.9 percent of pitches
10. Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles have Nick Markakis in right field and Adam Jones in center field, and manager Buck Showalter used an amalgam of players in left, from Nate McLouth to Lew Ford. The Orioles are hopeful that Nolan Reimold will be back and able to play more this season, and when healthy, he's a good offensive player.
Something to remember: Jones is one of those players who has been talked about for so long that it seems he would be 31 years old. In fact, he's just 27, and figures to continue to grow and learn as a hitter. There has generally been a slow and steady climb in Jones's OPS in his career:
2008: .711
2009: .792
2010: .767
2011: .785
2012: .839
He had 74 extra-base hits in 2012; only seven players in the majors had more. For Jones, the next step as a hitter will be to continue to narrow his strike zone -- as opposed to expanding it, something he did during the Orioles' series against the Yankees in the postseason.
The best of the rest
Detroit Tigers: With Austin Jackson in center, Torii Hunter in right and a combination of Andy Dirks and Avisail Garcia in left. Some rival evaluators believe there will be notable regression in Hunter's offensive production this year, after he hit .389 on balls he put in play last year.
Toronto Blue Jays: They could have one of the best outfields in the majors, depending on three factors:
1. Does Jose Bautista bounce back from an injury-plagued 2012, in which he hit .241 in 92 games?
2. Does Colby Rasmus progress, in what seems to be a tipping-point season for him? He had a .689 OPS last year, and at age 26, potential must start to translate.
3. Is Melky Cabrera for real, or is his performance a product of drugs? He was one of the best players in the NL before getting busted last year, after being viewed as a fourth-outfielder type by the Yankees and Braves and other teams in his career. The fact that Cabrera signed a two-year deal with the Jays -- rather than bet heavily on himself to bounce back on a one-year deal -- could mean that he has his own questions.
Colorado Rockies: They have a seemingly talented group in Carlos Gonzalez, Dexter Fowler, Michael Cuddyer and Tyler Colvin. But the home/road splits with the Colorado hitters always seem to raise questions about their level of excellence. Look at the home OPS and home runs against the road OPS/home runs:
Gonzalez: 1.046/13 at home, .706/9 on the road
Fowler: .984/10 at home, .720/3 on the road
Cuddyer: .858/9 at home, .744/7 on the road
Colvin: 1.032/11 at home, .687/7 on the road
The defensive metrics for the Colorado outfielders are so bad that they've even raised some red flags, for some team analysts, about whether they can even be applied to Rockies players.
Notables
• Ryan Freel's family has given the go-ahead for his brain to be studied for trauma, as they look for answers in the aftermath of his suicide, writes Mike Tierney.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. The Royals signed a couple of veterans in Miguel Tejada and Endy Chavez. These are two veterans who have been on successful teams, and Tejada is renowned as one of the big energy guys in baseball; he's had a nice showing in winter ball, hitting .284 for Aguilas.
2. Matt Carpenter wants to give himself a chance to play second base, writes Derrick Goold.
3. The Yankees' payroll currently stands at $189 million, David Waldstein writes.
4. The Red Sox watched Bobby Abreu work out.
Top 10 rotations in MLB.
Kyle Lohse still doesn't have a home, and there could be a few more trades of starting pitchers. But there is enough information available to rank the 10 best rotations for 2013.
1. Detroit Tigers
The rotation of Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Doug Fister, Anibal Sanchez and Rick Porcello took the Tigers to the World Series, and they could be even better in 2013. Verlander is generally regarded within the industry as the best pitcher on the planet, Fister is coming back from a season in which he was nagged by an oblique injury, and the Tigers will benefit from a full season of Sanchez, who was re-signed to an $80 million deal.
Detroit is listening to offers for Porcello and if the Tigers find the right deal, they would presumably replace him in the rotation with Drew Smyly. But they always have the option of holding their pitching depth; last season, they struggled constantly to find fixes after Fister got hurt. Rival evaluators believe that the Tigers' pitching will be helped by the defensive cleanup that Detroit has done in its outfield, adding Torii Hunter and removing Brennan Boesch and Delmon Young.
Scherzer by month
MONTH ERA IP K
April 7.77 24.1 27
May 4.04 35.2 51
June 3.86 30.1 36
July 3.62 32.1 37
August 2.25 32 44
September 2.17 29 33
Linchpin guy: Scherzer. After he dominated the Yankees in the playoffs, some of their hitters raved about Scherzer's pure stuff and development. In the second half of 2012, he was among the most dominant pitchers in the majors. Check out his month-by-month numbers in the table to the right.
Scherzer is known as somebody who tinkers and sometimes overthinks. If he holds on to what he found last year, he could be the difference between an excellent rotation and something even better.
2. Washington Nationals
Stephen Strasburg is back and healthy, and if Washington follows the typical industry guidelines for building innings in young starters, he'll be able to throw something in the range of 190 innings. Strasburg will be at the front of a rotation that has Gio Gonzalez, who finished third in the NL Cy Young race last season, Jordan Zimmermann, Ross Detwiler and Dan Haren.
Linchpin guy: Zimmermann. He will be three years removed from his Tommy John surgery, and is ready to become, for this staff, what James Shields was to the Rays' rotation -- the reliable front-end guy, the plow horse. Even in a season in which he seemed to tire in the final weeks, he had an excellent year, posting a 2.94 ERA. And the best is yet to come for the 26-year-old.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Josh Beckett, Chad Billingsley, Ted Lilly/Chris Capuano/Aaron Harang/Hyun-Jin Ryu. For Greinke and Beckett, this is the perfect situation, because they don't have the burden of being The Guy. Kershaw is the National League's best pitcher and he fully embraces all that comes with being the staff leader, from the media responsibilities to those moments when retaliation is needed. Greinke and Beckett can just worry about pitching, which is probably how they prefer it to be. The reason the Dodgers are ranked third -- and not higher -- is that it's not really clear what Don Mattingly is going to get out of Billingsley, Lilly or the starting pitcher who isn't dealt.
Linchpin guy: Beckett. Like other veteran starters who have moved from the AL to the NL, he should benefit from the shift, and Beckett is smart and savvy enough to be able to take advantage of those weakest spots at the bottom of the lineup. Beckett had a 2.93 ERA in his seven starts with the Dodgers, after being acquired from Boston, and now he gets a full-season reset button. He could be excellent. It's evident from Beckett's FanGraphs data that he relied a lot more on his cutter in his last few starts; it's a small sample size, but his strikeouts-per-9 ratio jumped from 6.64 with the Red Sox to 7.95 with the Dodgers.
4. Philadelphia Phillies
Remember two winters ago, when the Phillies were thought to have one of the greatest rotations of all time? There's a been-there, done-that sense about Philadelphia, a group of players who might be in the twilight of their accomplishments together. But Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels still might be the best trio of starters in the majors, and each is fully capable of winning the Cy Young Award. The Phillies led the majors in starting pitcher innings and strikeouts last season despite a miserable year that seemed to fall apart early. John Lannan was signed to help fill out the rotation, along with Kyle Kendrick and Tyler Cloyd.
Linchpin guy: Halladay. It's a really big year for the right-hander, because he has a $20 million option that can vest if he throws 235 innings, something he's done in five different seasons. Shoulder trouble limited him to 156⅓ innings last year, and at 35, he's reached the age where the performance cliff can be treacherous: He's really good when he pitches, but it wouldn't be a shock to anyone if he's taken down by all the years of accumulated wear and tear. Halladay will enter the season with a career record of 199-100.
5. Cincinnati Reds
The Reds finished fifth in the majors in rotation ERA last season, and their group of five was remarkably durable -- Johnny Cueto, Bronson Arroyo, Mat Latos, Homer Bailey and Mike Leake started 161 of the team's 162 games. As if that wasn't enough, the Reds intend to shift the overpowering Aroldis Chapman into their rotation in 2013, to give them a needed left-handed presence. Cueto was a Cy Young candidate for most of the season, and Latos made an excellent transition from pitching his home games in massive Petco Park to the confined quarters in Cincinnati. Arroyo, who turns 36 in February, has had seven straight seasons of 199 or more innings. The Cincinnati bullpen should be pretty good, too.
Linchpin guy: Bailey. He has a reputation for being stubborn and hard-headed, but he seemed to figure out some stuff during the 2012 season, with his ERA dropping from 4.14 in the first half to 3.21 after the All-Star break. Bailey was a first-round pick in 2004 and because of that, it feels like he's been around forever -- but remember, he's 26. If he has, in fact, turned the corner, and Chapman repeats his delivery enough to stay in the rotation, the Reds might have the best rotation by the end of the year.
6. Tampa Bay Rays
You start with Cy Young winner David Price, complemented by the underrated Alex Cobb, Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore and Jeff Niemann. The Rays finished No. 1 in starters' ERA last season, but they traded anchor James Shields, who threw more than 1,300 innings over the past six years.
Linchpin guy: Moore. He went into the 2012 season as the prohibitive favorite to win the AL Rookie of the Year, after his dominating showing at the end of 2011. But Moore struggled for command consistency for the first half of last season, before putting together a very good second half; Moore had a 3.01 ERA after the All-Star break, with 79 strikeouts in 77⅔ innings. If the 23-year-old blossoms this season, this rotation could be great, rather than just pretty good.
7. Toronto Blue Jays
The addition of R.A. Dickey gives them a Cy Young winner at the front of a group that could be dynamic, with its combination of left-handers (Mark Buehrle and Ricky Romero) and power right-handers (Josh Johnson and Brandon Morrow). Only Justin Verlander threw more innings than Dickey (233&frac23
last season, and Morrow might be ready for a breakout season, after gaining command consistency and lowering his ERA to 2.96 in 124⅔ innings last year.
Linchpin guy: Johnson. When healthy, he's been among the most dominant starters in the majors. Last year, his fastball velocity was down, and he had a 3.81 ERA in 31 starts. It's a big year for Johnson, who turns 29 in January and is eligible for free agency next fall.
8. Atlanta Braves
Kris Medlen had a sub-1.00 ERA in his last 12 starts, and he could emerge as the front-end guy the Braves need to complement Tim Hudson. The Braves are hopeful that Brandon Beachy will be back at full speed by August and September, meaning that he could be their biggest addition during the course of the season. The Braves will have Paul Maholm all season, along with Mike Minor, and they have depth, with prospects Randall Delgado and Julio Teheran waiting in the wings.
Linchpin guy: Minor. He figured out in late May how to not beat himself, how to minimize damage in his innings, how to be aggressive with his fastball, and he was much better down the stretch. Minor -- who actually led the Braves in starts, with 30 -- had a 2.16 ERA after the All-Star break. If he picks up that thread in 2013, the Atlanta rotation will be formidable.
9. San Francisco Giants
San Francisco finished sixth in starters' ERA and the Giants' rotation helped them win the World Series for the second time in three seasons -- and yet the year ended with a lot of questions for the starters. Rival scouts thought Matt Cain showed signs of wear and tear by the end of the postseason, and wondered if he was pitching through fatigue. Madison Bumgarner completely lost his delivery in parts of the postseason, and Tim Lincecum struggled enough to lose his spot in the rotation in the playoffs. But you figure that between that trio and Ryan Vogelsong and Barry Zito, the Giants' rotation will be one of the best, again.
Linchpin guy: Lincecum. He thrived in the relief role in the postseason, and the Giants are hopeful that he can draw confidence out of that success and apply it to his work in the rotation in 2013. He'll be eligible for free agency after this season, so it's an important year for him to re-establish himself as a reliable starter.
10. Oakland Athletics
The Athletics finished third in the AL in starters' ERA, and now they'll benefit from a full season of Brett Anderson at the front of a young rotation that includes Jarrod Parker (3.47 ERA in 29 starts), Tommy Milone (3.74), A.J. Griffin (3.06 ERA in 15 starts) and Dan Straily; Bartolo Colon was re-signed for just $3 million, and remember, he was pretty good before being suspended.
Linchpin guy: Anderson. In his first full season since having elbow reconstruction, it figures that the Athletics will monitor his innings -- although it's unlikely they'll discuss those limits publicly. Oakland is relying on a lot of young starters, which means that when Anderson pitches, the Athletics will need him to be really good, as he was at the end of 2012; in six starts, Anderson went 4-2, with a 2.57 ERA.
The next best: New York Yankees
The Yankees have had a rough winter trying to explain their new-found austerity to a fan base accustomed to big, bold (and expensive) moves. But they have managed to hold their pitching together and should have a good and efficient rotation, with CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, Andy Pettitte and Phil Hughes. Michael Pineda is a complete wild card: The talented right-hander is coming back from shoulder surgery, which means that nobody knows what he'll contribute next season -- 100 innings of dominant stuff, or next to nothing, as he recovers. Rival evaluators like David Phelps in a rotation/bullpen swing role.
Linchpin guy: Hughes had a decent season in 2012, despite pitching in a ballpark for which he is an imperfect fit. On the road last year, Hughes went 11-4, with a 3.76 ERA, and 22 of the 35 homers he allowed were in Yankee Stadium, where he went 5-9, 4.76.
We'll have some polling data on this later in the week, as we present rank the teams based on other categories.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. Paul Hoynes believes Chris Perez will be the Cleveland Indians' closer in 2013.
2. Missed this the other day: A.J. Pierzynski was formally named as the top catcher for the Texas Rangers. What's interesting about that is that Geovany Soto was under the impression that he would be the No. 1 catcher. Really, there will be plenty of opportunity for both, because Pierzynski could get a good share of at-bats as the DH.
3. The Miami Marlins are talking about listening to offers for Giancarlo Stanton.
4. John Tomase writes about how it all went wrong for the Boston Red Sox.
1. Detroit Tigers
The rotation of Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Doug Fister, Anibal Sanchez and Rick Porcello took the Tigers to the World Series, and they could be even better in 2013. Verlander is generally regarded within the industry as the best pitcher on the planet, Fister is coming back from a season in which he was nagged by an oblique injury, and the Tigers will benefit from a full season of Sanchez, who was re-signed to an $80 million deal.
Detroit is listening to offers for Porcello and if the Tigers find the right deal, they would presumably replace him in the rotation with Drew Smyly. But they always have the option of holding their pitching depth; last season, they struggled constantly to find fixes after Fister got hurt. Rival evaluators believe that the Tigers' pitching will be helped by the defensive cleanup that Detroit has done in its outfield, adding Torii Hunter and removing Brennan Boesch and Delmon Young.
Scherzer by month
MONTH ERA IP K
April 7.77 24.1 27
May 4.04 35.2 51
June 3.86 30.1 36
July 3.62 32.1 37
August 2.25 32 44
September 2.17 29 33
Linchpin guy: Scherzer. After he dominated the Yankees in the playoffs, some of their hitters raved about Scherzer's pure stuff and development. In the second half of 2012, he was among the most dominant pitchers in the majors. Check out his month-by-month numbers in the table to the right.
Scherzer is known as somebody who tinkers and sometimes overthinks. If he holds on to what he found last year, he could be the difference between an excellent rotation and something even better.
2. Washington Nationals
Stephen Strasburg is back and healthy, and if Washington follows the typical industry guidelines for building innings in young starters, he'll be able to throw something in the range of 190 innings. Strasburg will be at the front of a rotation that has Gio Gonzalez, who finished third in the NL Cy Young race last season, Jordan Zimmermann, Ross Detwiler and Dan Haren.
Linchpin guy: Zimmermann. He will be three years removed from his Tommy John surgery, and is ready to become, for this staff, what James Shields was to the Rays' rotation -- the reliable front-end guy, the plow horse. Even in a season in which he seemed to tire in the final weeks, he had an excellent year, posting a 2.94 ERA. And the best is yet to come for the 26-year-old.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Josh Beckett, Chad Billingsley, Ted Lilly/Chris Capuano/Aaron Harang/Hyun-Jin Ryu. For Greinke and Beckett, this is the perfect situation, because they don't have the burden of being The Guy. Kershaw is the National League's best pitcher and he fully embraces all that comes with being the staff leader, from the media responsibilities to those moments when retaliation is needed. Greinke and Beckett can just worry about pitching, which is probably how they prefer it to be. The reason the Dodgers are ranked third -- and not higher -- is that it's not really clear what Don Mattingly is going to get out of Billingsley, Lilly or the starting pitcher who isn't dealt.
Linchpin guy: Beckett. Like other veteran starters who have moved from the AL to the NL, he should benefit from the shift, and Beckett is smart and savvy enough to be able to take advantage of those weakest spots at the bottom of the lineup. Beckett had a 2.93 ERA in his seven starts with the Dodgers, after being acquired from Boston, and now he gets a full-season reset button. He could be excellent. It's evident from Beckett's FanGraphs data that he relied a lot more on his cutter in his last few starts; it's a small sample size, but his strikeouts-per-9 ratio jumped from 6.64 with the Red Sox to 7.95 with the Dodgers.
4. Philadelphia Phillies
Remember two winters ago, when the Phillies were thought to have one of the greatest rotations of all time? There's a been-there, done-that sense about Philadelphia, a group of players who might be in the twilight of their accomplishments together. But Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels still might be the best trio of starters in the majors, and each is fully capable of winning the Cy Young Award. The Phillies led the majors in starting pitcher innings and strikeouts last season despite a miserable year that seemed to fall apart early. John Lannan was signed to help fill out the rotation, along with Kyle Kendrick and Tyler Cloyd.
Linchpin guy: Halladay. It's a really big year for the right-hander, because he has a $20 million option that can vest if he throws 235 innings, something he's done in five different seasons. Shoulder trouble limited him to 156⅓ innings last year, and at 35, he's reached the age where the performance cliff can be treacherous: He's really good when he pitches, but it wouldn't be a shock to anyone if he's taken down by all the years of accumulated wear and tear. Halladay will enter the season with a career record of 199-100.
5. Cincinnati Reds
The Reds finished fifth in the majors in rotation ERA last season, and their group of five was remarkably durable -- Johnny Cueto, Bronson Arroyo, Mat Latos, Homer Bailey and Mike Leake started 161 of the team's 162 games. As if that wasn't enough, the Reds intend to shift the overpowering Aroldis Chapman into their rotation in 2013, to give them a needed left-handed presence. Cueto was a Cy Young candidate for most of the season, and Latos made an excellent transition from pitching his home games in massive Petco Park to the confined quarters in Cincinnati. Arroyo, who turns 36 in February, has had seven straight seasons of 199 or more innings. The Cincinnati bullpen should be pretty good, too.
Linchpin guy: Bailey. He has a reputation for being stubborn and hard-headed, but he seemed to figure out some stuff during the 2012 season, with his ERA dropping from 4.14 in the first half to 3.21 after the All-Star break. Bailey was a first-round pick in 2004 and because of that, it feels like he's been around forever -- but remember, he's 26. If he has, in fact, turned the corner, and Chapman repeats his delivery enough to stay in the rotation, the Reds might have the best rotation by the end of the year.
6. Tampa Bay Rays
You start with Cy Young winner David Price, complemented by the underrated Alex Cobb, Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore and Jeff Niemann. The Rays finished No. 1 in starters' ERA last season, but they traded anchor James Shields, who threw more than 1,300 innings over the past six years.
Linchpin guy: Moore. He went into the 2012 season as the prohibitive favorite to win the AL Rookie of the Year, after his dominating showing at the end of 2011. But Moore struggled for command consistency for the first half of last season, before putting together a very good second half; Moore had a 3.01 ERA after the All-Star break, with 79 strikeouts in 77⅔ innings. If the 23-year-old blossoms this season, this rotation could be great, rather than just pretty good.
7. Toronto Blue Jays
The addition of R.A. Dickey gives them a Cy Young winner at the front of a group that could be dynamic, with its combination of left-handers (Mark Buehrle and Ricky Romero) and power right-handers (Josh Johnson and Brandon Morrow). Only Justin Verlander threw more innings than Dickey (233&frac23
last season, and Morrow might be ready for a breakout season, after gaining command consistency and lowering his ERA to 2.96 in 124⅔ innings last year.Linchpin guy: Johnson. When healthy, he's been among the most dominant starters in the majors. Last year, his fastball velocity was down, and he had a 3.81 ERA in 31 starts. It's a big year for Johnson, who turns 29 in January and is eligible for free agency next fall.
8. Atlanta Braves
Kris Medlen had a sub-1.00 ERA in his last 12 starts, and he could emerge as the front-end guy the Braves need to complement Tim Hudson. The Braves are hopeful that Brandon Beachy will be back at full speed by August and September, meaning that he could be their biggest addition during the course of the season. The Braves will have Paul Maholm all season, along with Mike Minor, and they have depth, with prospects Randall Delgado and Julio Teheran waiting in the wings.
Linchpin guy: Minor. He figured out in late May how to not beat himself, how to minimize damage in his innings, how to be aggressive with his fastball, and he was much better down the stretch. Minor -- who actually led the Braves in starts, with 30 -- had a 2.16 ERA after the All-Star break. If he picks up that thread in 2013, the Atlanta rotation will be formidable.
9. San Francisco Giants
San Francisco finished sixth in starters' ERA and the Giants' rotation helped them win the World Series for the second time in three seasons -- and yet the year ended with a lot of questions for the starters. Rival scouts thought Matt Cain showed signs of wear and tear by the end of the postseason, and wondered if he was pitching through fatigue. Madison Bumgarner completely lost his delivery in parts of the postseason, and Tim Lincecum struggled enough to lose his spot in the rotation in the playoffs. But you figure that between that trio and Ryan Vogelsong and Barry Zito, the Giants' rotation will be one of the best, again.
Linchpin guy: Lincecum. He thrived in the relief role in the postseason, and the Giants are hopeful that he can draw confidence out of that success and apply it to his work in the rotation in 2013. He'll be eligible for free agency after this season, so it's an important year for him to re-establish himself as a reliable starter.
10. Oakland Athletics
The Athletics finished third in the AL in starters' ERA, and now they'll benefit from a full season of Brett Anderson at the front of a young rotation that includes Jarrod Parker (3.47 ERA in 29 starts), Tommy Milone (3.74), A.J. Griffin (3.06 ERA in 15 starts) and Dan Straily; Bartolo Colon was re-signed for just $3 million, and remember, he was pretty good before being suspended.
Linchpin guy: Anderson. In his first full season since having elbow reconstruction, it figures that the Athletics will monitor his innings -- although it's unlikely they'll discuss those limits publicly. Oakland is relying on a lot of young starters, which means that when Anderson pitches, the Athletics will need him to be really good, as he was at the end of 2012; in six starts, Anderson went 4-2, with a 2.57 ERA.
The next best: New York Yankees
The Yankees have had a rough winter trying to explain their new-found austerity to a fan base accustomed to big, bold (and expensive) moves. But they have managed to hold their pitching together and should have a good and efficient rotation, with CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, Andy Pettitte and Phil Hughes. Michael Pineda is a complete wild card: The talented right-hander is coming back from shoulder surgery, which means that nobody knows what he'll contribute next season -- 100 innings of dominant stuff, or next to nothing, as he recovers. Rival evaluators like David Phelps in a rotation/bullpen swing role.
Linchpin guy: Hughes had a decent season in 2012, despite pitching in a ballpark for which he is an imperfect fit. On the road last year, Hughes went 11-4, with a 3.76 ERA, and 22 of the 35 homers he allowed were in Yankee Stadium, where he went 5-9, 4.76.
We'll have some polling data on this later in the week, as we present rank the teams based on other categories.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. Paul Hoynes believes Chris Perez will be the Cleveland Indians' closer in 2013.
2. Missed this the other day: A.J. Pierzynski was formally named as the top catcher for the Texas Rangers. What's interesting about that is that Geovany Soto was under the impression that he would be the No. 1 catcher. Really, there will be plenty of opportunity for both, because Pierzynski could get a good share of at-bats as the DH.
3. The Miami Marlins are talking about listening to offers for Giancarlo Stanton.
4. John Tomase writes about how it all went wrong for the Boston Red Sox.
Biggest risks of the offseason.
To win a World Series you have to take some risks. And this offseason, plenty of contenders have been taking them. Here are the biggest risks I've seen this winter.
Cincinnati Reds
The risk: Moving Aroldis Chapman to the rotation and Shin-Soo Choo to center field
Chapman whiffed 122 batters in 71 2/3 innings last year, and was arguably the NL's second-best closer after Craig Kimbrel. Nonetheless, Cincy has always wanted to use him as a starter, and this offseason GM Walt Jocketty and pitching coach Bryan Price decided to make the move. It’s easy to understand why, in hopes that Chapman can make the same transition that Chris Sale did for the Chicago White Sox and give the Reds a potent top of the rotation with Johnny Cueto, Chapman and Mat Latos. However, Chapman is a much different pitcher than Sale: He doesn’t have the same command and control of the breaking ball and changeup, and there is a question how his fastball will look the second and third time through the lineup.
There is also health risk in making a decision like this, especially considering the shoulder soreness that Chapman has experienced on and off since he signed with the Reds. There is a real possibility that this decision could lead him to the disabled list, the way it did for Neftali Feliz, or he could all of a sudden lose his dominance the way Daniel Bard did when he moved to the rotation.
Manager Dusty Baker prefers to leave Chapman in the bullpen and I have a hunch he will end up back there. In the meantime, Jocketty signed Jonathan Broxton to a three-year, $21 million deal, but he was smart not to make any guarantees as to who would be closer, leaving the door open for Chapman's return to that role. I think it's too risky to move Chapman out of a role where he is so dominant with the team so close to the World Series.
Speaking of risk, the Reds also seem intent on moving the recently acquired Choo to center. Baker has wanted a true leadoff hitter since coming to Cincy, and now he has one. No doubt this deal will significantly help the Reds' lineup and set the table for Joey Votto and Jay Bruce; however, Choo is going to be out of his element in center.
Scouts who watch him every day wonder if he will give up all the offensive gains in the field. He moves side to side extremely well and can go back on the ball adequately. However, he doesn’t come in on the ball very well and he isn't fast enough to really run down balls deep in the gaps. It's possible the Reds will end up using Bruce in center, but he will be stretched there as well. The Reds had better hope their pitchers are striking out lots of hitters, which would make their defense less of a concern.
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Detroit Tigers
The risk: Bruce Rondon at closer
Rondon, 22, certainly has the stuff for the role, with a 100 mph fastball that helped him put up a 1.53 ERA with more than a strikeout per inning across three levels of the minors in 2013.
However, as manager Jim Leyland told me after the World Series, there is no guarantee that just because you have the stuff and potential that you can actually be that impact closer during your rookie season. That said, Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski has already anointed Rondon as the Tigers' closer for 2013 even though he has never pitched an inning in the big leagues.
The Tigers have had several opportunities this offseason to get an experienced closer. They could have traded for Joel Hanrahan or signed Rafael Soriano, who remains on the free-agent market. In fact, agent Scott Boras has tried unsuccessfully to persuade Dombrowski and owner Mike Illitch to sign Soriano; most in the industry find it puzzling that they’re not willing to do that, especially considering their willingness to spend big and that their lack of a closer was a big problem in the postseason.
If the Tigers don't want to spend big bucks for a closer, that's understandable, but they should at least go out and find someone with some experience in the role, someone like Brian Wilson, while allowing Rondon to develop with less pressure.
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Tampa Bay Rays
The risk: Starting Wil Myers at Triple-A Durham
Rays GM Andrew Friedman is one of the best in the game, so his blockbuster deal that netted the Rays Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi and Mike Montgomery from the Kansas City Royals came as no surprise to the industry.
The Rays are telling people internally that the plan is for Myers to start the year in Triple-A, not because they don’t think the bat is ready, but because of arbitration and free-agent eligibility issues. It’s how they do business; they did it with Evan Longoria, B.J. Upton and Matt Moore, so this should not be a surprise. It’s what a small-market club must do to survive.
However the real problem is that with the loss of Upton, this will be an offensively challenged lineup. And with James Shields' proven production missing in the rotation, it won’t be as easy getting to the postseason this year with improvements made by the Toronto Blue Jays and the Boston Red Sox, not to mention the maturing of the Baltimore Orioles' nucleus. Keeping Myers in Durham to start the year will certainly help them financially down the road, but it could torpedo their playoff hopes in 2013.
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New York Yankees
The risk: Senior citizen strategy
The Yankees are obsessed with keeping their payroll under $189 million in 2014, and rightfully so based on luxury-tax and revenue-sharing issues. But that doesn't explain why they've let guys like Russell Martin and Nick Swisher go out and sign reasonable deals elsewhere while signing Ichiro Suzuki and Kevin Youkilis, players who are way past their primes. (Also, they still don't have a starting catcher.)
We get why the Yankees aren't spending big dollars, but instead of signing old free agents they should be making trades to get younger. Their farm system isn't great, but they have some very exciting prospects -- like outfielder Mason Williams -- at the lower levels whom they can deal. And since the Yankees lead the game in revenues, why not go to Scott Boras and offer ridiculous one-year “pillow” deals to Michael Bourn and Kyle Lohse and let them go back on the market next fall after winning with the Yankees? This could be the last year of Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte, so don’t they deserve better than this Senior Citizen Strategy?
Branch Rickey once said that this was a young man’s game, and the Yankees are trying to prove the opposite. A dicey proposition at best.
Cincinnati Reds
The risk: Moving Aroldis Chapman to the rotation and Shin-Soo Choo to center field
Chapman whiffed 122 batters in 71 2/3 innings last year, and was arguably the NL's second-best closer after Craig Kimbrel. Nonetheless, Cincy has always wanted to use him as a starter, and this offseason GM Walt Jocketty and pitching coach Bryan Price decided to make the move. It’s easy to understand why, in hopes that Chapman can make the same transition that Chris Sale did for the Chicago White Sox and give the Reds a potent top of the rotation with Johnny Cueto, Chapman and Mat Latos. However, Chapman is a much different pitcher than Sale: He doesn’t have the same command and control of the breaking ball and changeup, and there is a question how his fastball will look the second and third time through the lineup.
There is also health risk in making a decision like this, especially considering the shoulder soreness that Chapman has experienced on and off since he signed with the Reds. There is a real possibility that this decision could lead him to the disabled list, the way it did for Neftali Feliz, or he could all of a sudden lose his dominance the way Daniel Bard did when he moved to the rotation.
Manager Dusty Baker prefers to leave Chapman in the bullpen and I have a hunch he will end up back there. In the meantime, Jocketty signed Jonathan Broxton to a three-year, $21 million deal, but he was smart not to make any guarantees as to who would be closer, leaving the door open for Chapman's return to that role. I think it's too risky to move Chapman out of a role where he is so dominant with the team so close to the World Series.
Speaking of risk, the Reds also seem intent on moving the recently acquired Choo to center. Baker has wanted a true leadoff hitter since coming to Cincy, and now he has one. No doubt this deal will significantly help the Reds' lineup and set the table for Joey Votto and Jay Bruce; however, Choo is going to be out of his element in center.
Scouts who watch him every day wonder if he will give up all the offensive gains in the field. He moves side to side extremely well and can go back on the ball adequately. However, he doesn’t come in on the ball very well and he isn't fast enough to really run down balls deep in the gaps. It's possible the Reds will end up using Bruce in center, but he will be stretched there as well. The Reds had better hope their pitchers are striking out lots of hitters, which would make their defense less of a concern.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Detroit Tigers
The risk: Bruce Rondon at closer
Rondon, 22, certainly has the stuff for the role, with a 100 mph fastball that helped him put up a 1.53 ERA with more than a strikeout per inning across three levels of the minors in 2013.
However, as manager Jim Leyland told me after the World Series, there is no guarantee that just because you have the stuff and potential that you can actually be that impact closer during your rookie season. That said, Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski has already anointed Rondon as the Tigers' closer for 2013 even though he has never pitched an inning in the big leagues.
The Tigers have had several opportunities this offseason to get an experienced closer. They could have traded for Joel Hanrahan or signed Rafael Soriano, who remains on the free-agent market. In fact, agent Scott Boras has tried unsuccessfully to persuade Dombrowski and owner Mike Illitch to sign Soriano; most in the industry find it puzzling that they’re not willing to do that, especially considering their willingness to spend big and that their lack of a closer was a big problem in the postseason.
If the Tigers don't want to spend big bucks for a closer, that's understandable, but they should at least go out and find someone with some experience in the role, someone like Brian Wilson, while allowing Rondon to develop with less pressure.
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Tampa Bay Rays
The risk: Starting Wil Myers at Triple-A Durham
Rays GM Andrew Friedman is one of the best in the game, so his blockbuster deal that netted the Rays Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi and Mike Montgomery from the Kansas City Royals came as no surprise to the industry.
The Rays are telling people internally that the plan is for Myers to start the year in Triple-A, not because they don’t think the bat is ready, but because of arbitration and free-agent eligibility issues. It’s how they do business; they did it with Evan Longoria, B.J. Upton and Matt Moore, so this should not be a surprise. It’s what a small-market club must do to survive.
However the real problem is that with the loss of Upton, this will be an offensively challenged lineup. And with James Shields' proven production missing in the rotation, it won’t be as easy getting to the postseason this year with improvements made by the Toronto Blue Jays and the Boston Red Sox, not to mention the maturing of the Baltimore Orioles' nucleus. Keeping Myers in Durham to start the year will certainly help them financially down the road, but it could torpedo their playoff hopes in 2013.
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New York Yankees
The risk: Senior citizen strategy
The Yankees are obsessed with keeping their payroll under $189 million in 2014, and rightfully so based on luxury-tax and revenue-sharing issues. But that doesn't explain why they've let guys like Russell Martin and Nick Swisher go out and sign reasonable deals elsewhere while signing Ichiro Suzuki and Kevin Youkilis, players who are way past their primes. (Also, they still don't have a starting catcher.)
We get why the Yankees aren't spending big dollars, but instead of signing old free agents they should be making trades to get younger. Their farm system isn't great, but they have some very exciting prospects -- like outfielder Mason Williams -- at the lower levels whom they can deal. And since the Yankees lead the game in revenues, why not go to Scott Boras and offer ridiculous one-year “pillow” deals to Michael Bourn and Kyle Lohse and let them go back on the market next fall after winning with the Yankees? This could be the last year of Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte, so don’t they deserve better than this Senior Citizen Strategy?
Branch Rickey once said that this was a young man’s game, and the Yankees are trying to prove the opposite. A dicey proposition at best.
Hanrahan proves closer myth.
In the only big transaction during this holiday lull, the Boston Red Sox acquired Joel Hanrahan from the Pittsburgh Pirates in a six-player trade that saw, most notably, Stolmy Pimentel, Jerry Sands, and Mark Melancon go the other direction. The Pirates immediately announced that Jason Grilli would step into Hanrahan's role as the closer for the Bucs in 2013. And just as quickly, a portion of the pundits predicted gloom for the Pirates because they lost their closer.
The truth of the matter is that closers are made, not born, and Hanrahan himself helps prove this.
The current closer paradigm is essentially a product of the late 1970s, a fairly small amount of time in the past for the creation of the whole closer mythos. Herman Franks, the manager of the Chicago Cubs rarely used Bruce Sutter when the team was behind, and the modern closer was born.
Very quickly, the reliever evolved into a ninth-inning, save machine role, with mixed results. As closers devolved into mostly pitching a single inning and racking up easier saves, the leverage index, which measures the importance of a situation based on the base situation, inning, and score, has also declined somewhat for closers. Sutter had a leverage index of 2.0 or greater for seven consecutive years. Gossage pulled off the feat 11 times, and Sparky Lyle managed seven such years. Nowadays, only a handful of relievers hit 2.0 in any given season.
As the closer became even more ingrained in baseball strategy, the mythology developed. Already starting in the '70s, closers didn't just have to be good relievers, they had to combine the tenacity of a bulldog, the determination of a 1940s comic book hero fighting the Nazis, with maybe a little dash of ninja sprinkled in. It also helped to have a cool nickname or a beard that resembled that of a Civil War general. All of this despite the fact that David Smith of Retrosheet.org wrote a research paper for the 2004 SABR Convention and found that despite the changes in reliever usage in recent decades, teams didn't do any better a job at holding leads.
Trade breakdown
ZiPS projections for all the players involved in the Red Sox-Pirates trade.
PITCHERS IP ERA BB K
Hanrahan (BOS) 59.0 3.66 27 66
Grilli (PIT) 53.2 3.19 21 68
Pimentel (PIT) 105.1 5.38 44 60
Melancon (PIT) 59.1 3.64 17 53
HITTERS BA OBP SLG HR
Sands (PIT) .236 .304 .394 16
Holt (BOS) .269 .349 .340 1
To take Dave's research one step further, I took the roughly 3,000 pitchers over the last 30 years who were primarily used as a reliever and pitched 30 innings in two consecutive seasons, to see how changes in bullpen role affected expectations and results. For expectations, I used Tom Tango's Marcel projections, which is an easy source of historical projections. (My projection system, ZiPS, only goes back to 2002.)
Overall, middle relievers converted to closers tended to outperform their expectations in year two, a trend which disappeared when looking at closers that remained closer. This is to be expected as players that are improving are more likely to be trusted with additional responsibilities. This is what we call selection bias.
Going through players who received at least 10 more save opportunities after a season of fewer than 10 saves, the players that fit that storyline of "good reliever, can't cut it as closer" are damned few. I found only 10 that underperformed their projected ERA by at least a run and when you knock out the ones who turned out to be just fine in future seasons (C.J. Wilson, Dave Veres, Ron Davis) and the ones that were injured, you essentially end up with Mike Perez, Matt Herges, Cliff Politte, and Matt Lindstrom. Frightfully few for a 30-year period, even being nice and throwing in LaTroy Hawkins, who doesn't quite fit given that he handled the job admirably for a whole year before melting down.
Searching more deeply for the Loch Ness Closer, I ended up with the same results using other methods. Surely, given that no projection system takes into account moxie and mojo, the correlation between Marcel-projected ERA and actual ERA was no worse for middle relievers who got chances at closing than for middle relievers who didn't: 0.13 vs. 0.16, dreadfully small numbers. (And that low correlation is not a surprise given that reliever ERA jumps around more than Derek Jeter fielding a grounder in the hole.)
Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman were two of the best closers of this generation not because of a label or a job assignment, but because they were damn good pitchers. Rivera has succeeded because of a cutter that makes grown men cry and Hoffman succeeded because of a changeup that violates the gravitational constant of the universe. Why not just leave it at that?
In the end, the Hanrahan trade can best be evaluated on the basis of how good the players involved are, without the mumbo-jumbo. Lest we forget, Joel Hanrahan was a middle reliever just two years ago, rather than emerging from the womb as a ninth-inning closer. Hanrahan's job title has little bearing on the whether this trade turns out to be a good one or not for the Pirates.
Hanrahan and Grilli is a better combination than Hanrahan and Mark Melancon (Hanrahan's 3.66 projected ERA in Boston was 3.13 in Pittsburgh, due to park and league differences), but in return, the Pirates save money that they could use on a higher upside player (Francisco Liriano) and pick up a project in Pimentel (that 105.1 projected IP is if he played in the majors in 2013). The Pirates, with a tighter budget, need the higher-upside players, while Boston, with a bigger bankroll and other signings meant to compete in the short-term, can take the safer path with Hanrahan. A fair trade for both sides, and no mythology required.
The truth of the matter is that closers are made, not born, and Hanrahan himself helps prove this.
The current closer paradigm is essentially a product of the late 1970s, a fairly small amount of time in the past for the creation of the whole closer mythos. Herman Franks, the manager of the Chicago Cubs rarely used Bruce Sutter when the team was behind, and the modern closer was born.
Very quickly, the reliever evolved into a ninth-inning, save machine role, with mixed results. As closers devolved into mostly pitching a single inning and racking up easier saves, the leverage index, which measures the importance of a situation based on the base situation, inning, and score, has also declined somewhat for closers. Sutter had a leverage index of 2.0 or greater for seven consecutive years. Gossage pulled off the feat 11 times, and Sparky Lyle managed seven such years. Nowadays, only a handful of relievers hit 2.0 in any given season.
As the closer became even more ingrained in baseball strategy, the mythology developed. Already starting in the '70s, closers didn't just have to be good relievers, they had to combine the tenacity of a bulldog, the determination of a 1940s comic book hero fighting the Nazis, with maybe a little dash of ninja sprinkled in. It also helped to have a cool nickname or a beard that resembled that of a Civil War general. All of this despite the fact that David Smith of Retrosheet.org wrote a research paper for the 2004 SABR Convention and found that despite the changes in reliever usage in recent decades, teams didn't do any better a job at holding leads.
Trade breakdown
ZiPS projections for all the players involved in the Red Sox-Pirates trade.
PITCHERS IP ERA BB K
Hanrahan (BOS) 59.0 3.66 27 66
Grilli (PIT) 53.2 3.19 21 68
Pimentel (PIT) 105.1 5.38 44 60
Melancon (PIT) 59.1 3.64 17 53
HITTERS BA OBP SLG HR
Sands (PIT) .236 .304 .394 16
Holt (BOS) .269 .349 .340 1
To take Dave's research one step further, I took the roughly 3,000 pitchers over the last 30 years who were primarily used as a reliever and pitched 30 innings in two consecutive seasons, to see how changes in bullpen role affected expectations and results. For expectations, I used Tom Tango's Marcel projections, which is an easy source of historical projections. (My projection system, ZiPS, only goes back to 2002.)
Overall, middle relievers converted to closers tended to outperform their expectations in year two, a trend which disappeared when looking at closers that remained closer. This is to be expected as players that are improving are more likely to be trusted with additional responsibilities. This is what we call selection bias.
Going through players who received at least 10 more save opportunities after a season of fewer than 10 saves, the players that fit that storyline of "good reliever, can't cut it as closer" are damned few. I found only 10 that underperformed their projected ERA by at least a run and when you knock out the ones who turned out to be just fine in future seasons (C.J. Wilson, Dave Veres, Ron Davis) and the ones that were injured, you essentially end up with Mike Perez, Matt Herges, Cliff Politte, and Matt Lindstrom. Frightfully few for a 30-year period, even being nice and throwing in LaTroy Hawkins, who doesn't quite fit given that he handled the job admirably for a whole year before melting down.
Searching more deeply for the Loch Ness Closer, I ended up with the same results using other methods. Surely, given that no projection system takes into account moxie and mojo, the correlation between Marcel-projected ERA and actual ERA was no worse for middle relievers who got chances at closing than for middle relievers who didn't: 0.13 vs. 0.16, dreadfully small numbers. (And that low correlation is not a surprise given that reliever ERA jumps around more than Derek Jeter fielding a grounder in the hole.)
Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman were two of the best closers of this generation not because of a label or a job assignment, but because they were damn good pitchers. Rivera has succeeded because of a cutter that makes grown men cry and Hoffman succeeded because of a changeup that violates the gravitational constant of the universe. Why not just leave it at that?
In the end, the Hanrahan trade can best be evaluated on the basis of how good the players involved are, without the mumbo-jumbo. Lest we forget, Joel Hanrahan was a middle reliever just two years ago, rather than emerging from the womb as a ninth-inning closer. Hanrahan's job title has little bearing on the whether this trade turns out to be a good one or not for the Pirates.
Hanrahan and Grilli is a better combination than Hanrahan and Mark Melancon (Hanrahan's 3.66 projected ERA in Boston was 3.13 in Pittsburgh, due to park and league differences), but in return, the Pirates save money that they could use on a higher upside player (Francisco Liriano) and pick up a project in Pimentel (that 105.1 projected IP is if he played in the majors in 2013). The Pirates, with a tighter budget, need the higher-upside players, while Boston, with a bigger bankroll and other signings meant to compete in the short-term, can take the safer path with Hanrahan. A fair trade for both sides, and no mythology required.
Rumors.
Projected rotation for Tribe
11:50
AM ETCleveland Indians Recommend0Comments0EmailRotation candidates for Indians
Ubaldo Jimenez, RHPJustin Masterson, RHPZach McAllister, RHPTrevor Bauer, RHPBrett Myers, RHPJeanmar Gomez, RHPDavid Huff, LHPCorey Kluber, RHPCarlos Carrasco, RHPThe Cleveland Indians will start 2013 with a different starting rotation than they displayed at any point in 2012. That's a good thing, since they ranked third-to-last in starting pitcher ERA.
The additions include right-handers Trevor Bauer and Brett Myers, with Ubaldo JImenez set to return. Justin Masterson, rumored as trade bait, could also be back.
Jon Morosi reported via Twitter Tuesday that the Indians have had talks with Shaun Marcum, too.
The club's depth chart shows but pone southpaw in Huff, but if the Dodgers shop southpaw Chris Capuano the Indians may be a prime suitor.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Carlos Carrasco, Justin Masterson, David Huff, Jeanmar Gomez, Chris Capuano, Cleveland Indians, Brett Myers, Shaun Marcum, Trevor Bauer
Starting pitching crop thinning
11:34
AM ETFree Agent Starters Recommend0Comments15EmailFree Agent Starting PitchersZack Greinke, RHP | Dodgers: six years, $147 millionAnibal Sanchez, RHP | Tigers: five years, $80 million Kyle Lohse, RHPEdwin Jackson, RHP | Cubs: four years. $52 millionBrett Myers, RHP | Indians: one year, $7 millionRyan Dempster, RHP | Red Sox: two years, $26.5 millionJeremy Guthrie, RHP | Royals: three years, $25 millionBrandon McCarthy, RHP | D-backs: two years, $15.5 millionHisashi Iwakuma, RHP | Mariners: two years, $15 millionHiroki Kuroda, RHP | Yankees: one year, $15 millionDan Haren, RHP | Nationals: one year, $13 millionFrancisco Liriano, LHP | Pirates: two years, $12.75 millionShaun Marcum, RHPRoy Oswalt, RHPJoe Saunders, LHP
Daisuke Matsuzaka, RHPCarlos Villanueva, RHP | Cubs: two years, $10 millionLohse remains the top free agent starting pitcher available and is now one of the few that warrant a guaranteed spot in the rotation with whatever team he signs with this winter.
Shaun Marcum is also still on the market, as is Joe Saunders. After that clubs seeking rotation help may have to check the trade market.
The Dodgers could trade Aaron Harang or Chris Capuano, particularly if they feel confident Ted Lilly will be of help in 2013.
Other free agents include Jair Jurrjens, Jonathan Sanchez, Erik Bedard, Freddy Garcia, Derek Lowe, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Roy Oswalt and Carlos Zambrano. Gavin Floyd is another potential trade candidate.
Two contenders that still could look to add rotation help are the Boston Red Sox and Cincinnati Reds. The Reds are transitioning Aroldis Chapman to a starting role, but if the opportunity arises to add quality one would imagine GM Walt Jocketty would jump at the chance.
The Red Sox did add Ryan Dempster, but a glance at their rotation candidates suggests there's room for another significant acquisition, particularly if the club plans to compete with the Rays, Yankees and Blue Jays.
Javier Vazquez, who did not pitch in 2012, is reportedly eyeing a comeback.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Texas Rangers, Anibal Sanchez, Los Angeles Dodgers, Los Angeles Angels, Dan Haren, Shaun Marcum, Francisco Liriano, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Ryan Dempster, James Shields, Francisco Liriano, Zack Greinke, Ryan Dempster
Bold move for Rockies?
11:28
AM ETColorado Rockies Recommend0Comments7EmailIf the season were to start today -- and thank goodness it doesn't, because the weather outside is frightful, and the fire is so delightful ... also, if the season started in mid-December, Dean Martin would have nothing about which to sing -- the Colorado Rockies might be an arm short in their rotation.
Among the club's present options are Juan Nicasio, Christian Friedrich, Jhoulys Chacin, Tyler Chatwood, Drew Pomeranz and Jorge De La Rosa. There's nothing wrong with such a collection on the surface, but ...
Nicasio and De La Rosa are coming off serious injuries, Chatwood may belong in the bullpen and both Pomeranz and Friedrich still need work on their control and command.
Troy Renck of the Denver Post tweets that the Rockies are eyeing Jeff Karstens and Freddy Garcia, and the club was linked to Rick Porcello last week.
The Tigers are fielding calls on Drew Smyly, too, an arm that could interest the Rockies, though they may prefer to spend a few million bucks rather than giving up talent to acquire one.
Jeff Francis has also been linked to the Rockies and remaining free agents such as Aaron Cook, Derek Lowe, Shaun Marcum, Kevin Millwood, and Chris Young could all be considerations.
ESPN Insider's Jim Bowden writes Thursday that if the Rockies are bold, perhaps they could land a couple of high-impact arms:
- Jason A. Churchill
Jim Bowden | The GM's Office
How the Rockies get pitching
"Rockies give up: Carlos Gonzalez
Acquire: Trevor Rosenthal, Shelby Miller and Jon Jay (from the St. Louis Cardinals)
The Rockies have said they don't plan on trading Gonzalez, but they also know if they don?t do something drastic to address their starting rotation woes, it could be a few long summers in Denver. Gonzalez would give the Cardinals the best and most balanced lineup in the National League. To put Gonzalez in the middle of Matt Holliday, Carlos Beltran, Allen Craig andDavid Freese sets them up for the short- and long-term as they wait for Oscar Taveras to take over for Beltran in 2014. CarGo is locked up through 2017 at less than $15 million per year, which is very reasonable for a player of his caliber. And before you say that Gonzalez is simply a product of Coors Field, remember that people used to say the same thing about Holliday, and he has proven that theory incorrect in St. Louis. Rosenthal and Miller are both close to the majors and have upside. They are the kind of talented arms the Rockies lack. Jay is a solid outfielder, and he would be a nice fit in Colorado.
Tags:Rich Harden, Kevin Millwood, Shaun Marcum, Aaron Cook, Carlos Villanueva, Derek Lowe, Colorado Rockies, Jeff Karstens, Freddy Garcia, Rick Porcello, Drew Smyly
O's radar
9:37
AM ETBaltimore Orioles Recommend0Comments0EmailWile the rest of the American League East has either made significant additions to their roster or reloaded with the same crew, the Baltimore Orioles land somewhere in between. They aren't yet satisfied with their pitching staff, however, and remain interested in a starter and a reliever, tweeted Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun.
Rotation candidates for O's
Jason Hammel, RHPWei-Yin Chen, LHPZach Britton, LHPChris Tillman, RHPMiguel Gonzalez, RHPSteve Johnson, RHPJake Arrieta, RHPDylan Bundy, RHPThe starter is Joe Saunders, though if the market on Kyle Lohse falls to them the club could have strong interest. The reliever is Matt Lindstrom, whom the Orioles traded to Arizona to acquire Saunders last summer.
Connolly notes that several clubs are showing interest in Lindstrom.
As of New Year's Day, the Orioles' rotation is unsettled, but adding a veteran like Saunders could mean the bullpen for Matusz and it could stave off the big leagues for a short time for Bundy. There's also a chance the Orioles trade one of the above eight if they are able to sign Saunders or Lohse.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Baltimore Orioles, Zach Britton, Chris Tillman, Dylan Bundy, Kyle Lohse, Joe Saunders, Matt Lindstrom
Sox scouting Abreu
8:59
AM ETBobby Abreu | Dodgers Recommend0Comments0EmailBobby Abreu will turn 39 before the start of the 2013 schedule and his skills have declined markedly the past few years. He no longer fits as an outfielder -- he''s never been a good fielder, even in his youth -- and hasn't hit left-handed pitching at all since 2009. So why would the Boston Red Sox be scouting him in Venezuela, as reported by Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald?
One would have to imagine that Abreu's role with a contending club would be limited to the occasional start at designated hitter versus a right-handed pitcher and some pinch-hitting duties. For Boston, it couldn't be much more than that with David Ortiz signed, sealed and delivered at DH.
Lauber did note that it's unlikely the Red Sox will sign Abreu, but some club could take a shot at him on a minor league contract with an invite to big-league camp.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Bobby Abreu, David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox
A few top FAs remain
8:01
AM ETTop Remaining Free Agents Recommend0Comments8EmailOnly two free agents on Keith Law's Top 50 free agent rankings remain available -- centerfielder Michael Bourn and right-hander Kyle Lohse -- but they both rank in the top 10, suggesting there are still some good talents for clubs to add to their rosters.
Closer Rafael Soriano (No. 14) also remains available, as does first baseman Adam LaRoche (No. 16), Shaun Marcum (No. 23) and Lance Berkman (No. 2.
The relief market still boasts a few top setup men, including a few with closing experience such as Kyle Farnsworth (No. 3, Jose Valverde (No. 34) and Francisco Rodriguez (No. 46).
Daisuke Matsuzaka (No. 47) and Delmon Young (No. 45) also remain free agents as their markets develop at a snail's pace.
Bourn and agent Scott Boras entered the offseason with big money on the mind, no doubt, but it may be in their best interest to take a one-year deal and re-enter the market next year when fewer center field options are available.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Adam LaRoche, Delmon Young, Jose Valverde, Rafael Soriano, Kyle Farnsworth, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Kyle Lohse, Michael Bourn
January 1, 2013Fish willing to listen?
4:03
PM ETGiancarlo Stanton | Marlins Recommend0Comments72EmailTop collections of youth
1. San Diego Padres
Yasmani Grandal, Case Kelly, Rymer Liriano, Max Fried, Austin Hedges, Jedd Gyorko, Joe Ross, Zach Eflin, Walker Weickel 2. Tampa Bay Rays
Chris Archer, Enny Romero, Drew Vettleson, Blake Snell, Richie Shaffer, Taylor Guerreri, Desmond Jennings, Hak-Ju Lee, Alex Colome 3. Seattle Mariners
Taijuan Walker, Kyle Seager, Dustin Ackley, Danny Hultzen, Brandon Maurer, Nick Franklin, Brad Miller, James Paxton, Victor Sanchez 4. Oakland Athletics
Jarrod Parker, A.J. Cole, Addison Russell, Sony Gray, Dan Straily, Chris Carter, Michael Choice, Derek Norris 5. Pittsburgh Pirates
Jameson Taillon, Josh Bell, Starling Marte, Tony Sanchez, Gerrit Cole, Gregory Polanco, Alen Hanson, Wyatt Mathisen, Luis Heredia One of the hottest topics in rumors circles is the idea that the Miami Marlins may field offers for right fielder Giancarlo Stanton. Since the Fish traded away their two best starting pitchers and their starting shortstop, the club has fielded calls, but sources tell Rumor Central that Miami's executives have refused to discuss trades involving the budding superstar. That stance could change fairly soon, however.
Just before 2012 turns to 2013, Dan Jennings, the Marlins assistant GM, told ESPN Insider Jim Bowden that the club will listen to all offers on Stanton but is not actively shopping the slugger.
Jennings' point is that no player is untouchable, but the Fish would have to be overwhelmed to consider such a deal.
Stanton will not be arbitration eligible until this time next year, which means he will spend 2013 as a 23-year-old threat to the 50-homer mark and won't crack the half-million dollar mark in terms of salary. He'll be affordable, even for the Marlins, through 2014, too.
Stanton's moderate salary, however, may not -- and should not -- prevent the club from seeing what they can get for him between now and the start of the 2014 season. It may be ideal to let him continue to mash at the plate, perhaps hit 40-50 long balls this coming season and drive his trade value through the roof.
Stanton, of course, made it known how unhappy he was with the organization's decision to have a fire sale, creating a scenario in which its difficult to believe he'd ever sign an extension to stay in South Beach. Once the team decides the time is right to seriously consider trading him, rival clubs will line up around the block to make their pitch.
If Stanton gets off to a great start in '13, it's conceivable that the Marlins brass could check the offer sheets to see what they can get, and if a team overwhelms them, Stanton could be dealt before the trade deadline.
Such a transaction, whether it takes place over the summer or between seasons, is likely to be a franchise changer, at least if Miami handles it appropriately and demands the right kind of talents in return. The timing would likely be best somewhere in the next 15 months or so, since the club-controlled years are extremely valuable, and the closer he gets to free agency the more his value drops.
Any of the 29 other clubs would be interested, and a handful of those that have strong farm systems and good-to-great young talents in the big leagues will have a shot to land the Big Fish. They'll likely have to wait a year, but chances are, Stanton will be worth the wait -- and the premium bait it will require to get the Marlins to bite.
It's worth noting that Jon Morosi reported Monday night that the Marlins received a call from the Mariners about Stanton, though we have to assume several clubs have contacted Miami to inquire. ESPN Insider's Jim Bowden tweeted over the weekend that the Fish are willing to listen, but have no plans to move Stanton and are not shopping him around the league.
Bowden writes that the Rangers could be equipped to get a deal done:
- Jason A. Churchill
Jim Bowden | The GM's Office
Stanton to Texas?
"Stanton is the No. 1 young right-handed power hitter in game, and he already has 93 career homers despite turning 23 just last month. But Stanton is no one-dimensional slugger. He is also an above-average right fielder with an above-average arm. He studies the game as well as any young player and has terrific work ethic and baseball instincts. If he stays healthy, he'll have a chance to join the 600 home run club someday. The Marlins won't contend until at least 2014, so the prudent move would be to trade him and maximize the return for a player of Stanton's caliber. What's next: The Marlins have said they won't trade Stanton, realizing that he is not only their best player and a future superstar but, more importantly, also their only drawing card. But if he shows up to camp and continues to be unhappy, the Marlins will have to listen to trade proposals come July. There is not a young position player in baseball who has more trade value than Stanton, and with the rebuilding Marlins, if a team such as the Texas Rangers wants to empty the farm for him, the Fish will have to listen."
Tags:Miami Marlins, Giancarlo Stanton
January 1, 2013BoSox next move
10:55
AM ETBoston Red Sox Recommend0Comments6EmailThe Boston Red Sox have added a few bats this offseason -- David Ross, Stephen Drew, Shane Victorino, Jonny Gomes and are working on Mike Napoli, who agreed to a deal weeks ago. Now the club may be after free agent first baseman Adam LaRoche.
LaRoche has been holding out for a three-year deal from the Washington Nationals and has also drawn interest from the Baltimore Orioles. It's unclear whether or not the Red Sox would finalize the agreement with Napoli and still sign LaRoche. It may be one or the other.
I have to wonder why the Red Sox aren't being more aggressive in terms of fixing the starting rotation, however. The club finished 2012 with the fourth-worst ERA in baseball and their starters ranked fourth-worst with a 5.19 ERA.
The Sox have added Ryan Dempster, who should help some, but on paper it appears there is still a lack of stability, even if John Lackey can return and help sometime in the first half of 2013.
The free agent market is almost dry, with Kyle Lohse the top remaining free agent, but there's always the trade route, and perhaps GM Ben Cherington and crew are monitoring the likes of Chris Capuano, Bud Norris, Rick Porcello, Drew Smyly, Matt Garza and Ricky Nolasco.
Cliff Lee is a name to keep an eye on, too, though the Phillies' motivations for moving Lee may be gone since the free agent market for outfielders and third basemen is fairly empty.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Chicago Cubs, Miami Marlins, Ricky Nolasco, Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies, Boston Red Sox, Mike Napoli, Adam LaRoche, Chris Capuano, Drew Smyly, Rick Porcello
December 31, 2012Marlins pass on Cuban prospects
1:57
PM ETMiami Marlins Recommend0Comments0EmailThe Miami Marlins have "zero interest" in Cuban prospects Dariel Alvarez or Aledmys Diaz, both of whom are scheduled to work out for MLB scouts this weekend, reports MLB.com's Joe Frisaro.
Alvarez is a 24-year-old outfielder, and the 22-year-old Diaz is a shortstop.
The Marlins were among the teams interested in Cuban-born outfielder Yoenis Cespedes last season before he ended up signing with the A's. But the Fish are in a cost-cutting mode this winter and show no willingness to pay out any big bonuses.
- Doug Mittler
Tags:Miami Marlins
December 31, 2012D-backs may be in no rush to deal
10:26
AM ETArizona Diamondbacks Recommend0Comments3EmailThe future of Justin Upton in Arizona has been speculated all offseason, even though general manager Kevin Towers insisted a few weeks ago it is highly unlikely the outfielder would be traded following the acquisition of shortstop Didi Gregorius from the Cincinnati Reds.
The somewhat unexpected signing of Cody Ross earlier this month leaves the D-backs with a stockpile of outfielders, perhaps paving the way for a trade. If the D-backs opened the regular season today, they'd have Jason Kubel, Justin Upton and Ross in the outfield. Gerardo Parra would be back on the bench and Adam Eaton and/or A.J. Pollock, could be back at Triple-A.
Unless the Texas Rangers blow Towers away with an offer for Upton, the D-backs could be best served by holding on to their stockpile for the time being and wait for a need to develop, suggests MLB.com's Richard Justice.
The D-backs, for example, would have some trading chips if the third base platoon of Chris Johnson and Eric Chavez doesn't pan out. Virtually all teams could use an additional starter come midseason, so Towers could be inclined to be patient.
- Doug Mittler
Tags:Justin Upton, Arizona Diamondbacks
December 31, 2012Wells likely to stay?
9:50
AM ETVernon Wells | Angels Recommend0Comments2EmailThe Los Angeles Angels will be paying $21 million each of the next two seasons to Vernon Wells. The veteran outfielder, of course, hasn't delivered an equivalent bang for the buck, but he still has value to the Halos, wrote Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register last week.
At the moment, Wells is slotted as the fourth outfielder behind Mike Trout, Josh Hamilton and Peter Bourjos. But given that Bourjos is coming off a rough season at the plate (.220), the Angels may need to cover themselves with a veteran backup, especially since they may still be reluctant to go with the unproven Kole Calhoun as a fourth outfielder.
Wells' name has been linked recently to the Yankees and Phillies, but if the Angels are forced to eat the lion's share of the contract to make any deal happen, it may make sense to simply keep him around.
- Doug Mittler
Tags:Vernon Wells, Los Angeles Angels
December 31, 2012Comeback for Vazquez?
9:07
AM ETJavier Vazquez | Marlins Recommend0Comments3EmailJavier Vazquez, who last appeared in the major leagues in 2011 with the Marlins, is currently honing his craft this winter for the Ponce Lions in Puerto Rico.
The 36-year-old plans to pitch in the World Baseball Classic and tells Ralph Pagan Archeval of ESPNDeportes.com he is considering a comeback, preferably with a contender. "I have not closed the doors," the 36-year-old Vazquez said.
Vazquez had 12 straight seasons of double-digit wins, including a career-best 16 for the Expos in 2001.
- Doug Mittler
Tags:Javier Vazquez
December 31, 2012Lohse's options
8:52
AM ETKyle Lohse | Cardinals Recommend0Comments12EmailAlthough both clubs already have full rotations, the Dodgers and Tigers could be in play for Lohse, writes the Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo. In those cases, a starter would likely have to be traded -- Chris Capuano or Aaron Harang for the Dodgers, or Rick Porcello for the Tigers -- before either team goes hard after Lohse.
Kyle Lohse is easily the best pitcher still on the free agent market, but it's been a slow-go for the veteran this winter.
Lohse has watched idly as Anibal Sanchez and Edwin Jackson -- two fellow righties thought to be in the same class -- have inked multi-year deals, but it now appears that the picture is becoming clearer for the former Cardinal.
MASN's Roch Kubatko, though, thinks it's unlikely the O's will land Lohse, citing the club's inclination to avoid signing pitchers to big contracts, as well as the desire to hang onto its first-round pick in the 2013 draft.
There has been speculation, like this from ESPN Insider Jim Bowden, that the teams most interested in Lohse are the Orioles, Brewers and perhaps Texas. Bowden explains why the best fit for Lohse would be in Baltimore:
- Jason Catania
Jim Bowden
Lohse makes sense for O's
"For the Orioles to make it back to the playoffs they could really use a proven starter to slot at or near the front of their rotation. Lohse, 34, has a 3.11 ERA in 399 1/3 innings over the last two seasons and would give the O's rotation some much-needed innings and reliability until top prospects Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman arrive. The AL East is wide open, and the Orioles can't sit around and let someone else take the division. "
Tags:Milwaukee Brewers, Baltimore Orioles, Edwin Jackson, Anibal Sanchez, Boston Red Sox, Texas Rangers, Los Angeles Angels, Kyle Lohse
December 31, 2012Why Myers remains unsigned
8:44
AM ETBrett Myers | White Sox Recommend0Comments0EmailFree agent Brett Myers has expressed a desire to again work as a starter after spending last season in the bullpen for the Astros and White Sox. But the main reason Myers remains unsigned may be money, reports Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.
"The feeling is he's been asking for too much money," a National League GM tells Cafardo. "I think teams are waiting for the price to come down. He can certainly help a team. I think a lot of teams have him on a wish list."
Myers, who made $11 million last season, has been linked to the Padres, Orioles and Twins - clubs that will pay nothing close to that figure in 2013.
- Doug Mittler
Tags:Brett Myers, San Diego Padres, Minnesota Twins
December 31, 2012Braves' left field search
8:20
AM ETAtlanta Braves Recommend0Comments5EmailThe biggest splash of the Atlanta Braves' offseason was the signing of center fielder B.J. Upton, but they are still searching for someone who will play alongside him in left field.
If the season began today, the Braves could go with Juan Francisco as a primary or platoon third baseman and have Martin Prado split time between left field and third base instead of moving to third full-time. Another left field platoon option is Reed Johnson, who re-signed earlier this month.
David O'Brien of the Atlanta JC tweeted Sunday that he expects the Braves to pass on free agent Delmon Young, who was primarily a DH in Detroit last season.
Scott Hairston may be the best option available, but the Braves seem unlikely to give a multi-year deal that he is seeking.
- Doug Mittler
Tags:Scott Hairston, Delmon Young, Atlanta Braves
December 31, 2012LaRoche and the new CBA
7:52
AM ETAdam LaRoche | Nationals Recommend0Comments0EmailIt's New Year's Eve and free agent Adam LaRoche is still on the open market. LaRoche has indicated that he prefers to remain in Washington with the Nationals, but he's also sticking to his target of landing a three-year deal.
Another reason LaRoche remains unsigned is the unintended consequences of the new collective bargaining agreement, as outlined earlier this month by ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney.
The new rules were designed to ensure that only elite free agents, who received $13.3 million qualifying offers from their former teams, were attached to draft-pick compensation. The hope was that the compensation wouldn't hinder the players at all this winter. But LaRoche received a qualifying offer, and interested parties may be reluctant to surrender a pick for his services.
With their deal with Mike Napoli in limbo, the Boston Red Sox have been mentioned as a serious suitor for LaRoche. But Tim Britton of the Providence Journal the Red Sox cautions the Red Sox should be cautious about surrendering a draft pick that could prove to be very valuable.
- Doug Mittler
Tags:Adam LaRoche, Boston Red Sox, Washington Nationals
December 31, 2012Mets counting on Gee
7:22
AM ETDillon Gee | Mets Recommend0Comments0EmailDespite the fact that he's still recovering from surgery to address a blood clot in his right shoulder, Dillon Gee will be an important piece for the New York Mets in 2013.
In the aftermath of the R.A. Dickey trade, Gee will be counted on even more, reports the Daily News' Anthony McCarron.
The 26-year-old right-hander has been solid over parts of three seasons in Flushing, posting a 21-16 record and 4.06 ERA in 49 starts. He was having his best year yet in 2012, before the scary blood clot cost him the entire second half.
Good news is, the surgery, which widened a damaged artery in his shoulder in order to increase blood flow, was deemed a success, so Gee should be ready for a full spring training. That's important for the Mets entering 2013, as the staff could very much use a healthy Gee pitching in the middle of a rotation that needs some stability. Outside of veteran lefty Jonathon Niese, the current five-man has plenty of questions, including an ace with his own injury issues (Johan Santana), a pair of youngsters with little big league experience (Matt Harvey and Jenrry Mejia) and of course, the loss of the reigning NL Cy Young winner.
- Jason Catania
Tags:New York Mets, Jonathon Niese, Matt Harvey, Ken Harvey, Jenrry Mejia, R.A. Dickey, Johan Santana, Dillon Gee
December 31, 2012More offense at Petco?
7:21
AM ETSan Diego Padres Recommend0Comments2EmailIt's been a quiet offseason for the San Diego Padres so far, but that doesn't mean the club's offense won't improve next year.
The Padres are moving in the fences 10 feet along the length of right field and in left center in Petco Park, as San Diego Union-Tribune's Bill Center notes.
That can only help hitters, especially when Petco was the third-worst in baseball in the home run aspect of park factors: at .626, the stadium suppressed long balls by nearly 40 percent below league average.
Taking that even further, lefty hitters have been especially hurt in the homer department over the past three seasons (39 percent below average vs. seven percent below for righties).
While we won't know how the new dimensions will play until games get underway, this is the kind of thing that might make certain Padres hitters, primarily lefty-swingers like Yonder Alonso, Will Venable and especially switch-hitting Chase Headley (who managed to hit 13 of his career-high 31 homers at home in 2012) slightly more valuable -- or at least, more enticing -- for fantasy purposes next year.
- Jason Catania
11:50
AM ETCleveland Indians Recommend0Comments0EmailRotation candidates for Indians
Ubaldo Jimenez, RHPJustin Masterson, RHPZach McAllister, RHPTrevor Bauer, RHPBrett Myers, RHPJeanmar Gomez, RHPDavid Huff, LHPCorey Kluber, RHPCarlos Carrasco, RHPThe Cleveland Indians will start 2013 with a different starting rotation than they displayed at any point in 2012. That's a good thing, since they ranked third-to-last in starting pitcher ERA.
The additions include right-handers Trevor Bauer and Brett Myers, with Ubaldo JImenez set to return. Justin Masterson, rumored as trade bait, could also be back.
Jon Morosi reported via Twitter Tuesday that the Indians have had talks with Shaun Marcum, too.
The club's depth chart shows but pone southpaw in Huff, but if the Dodgers shop southpaw Chris Capuano the Indians may be a prime suitor.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Carlos Carrasco, Justin Masterson, David Huff, Jeanmar Gomez, Chris Capuano, Cleveland Indians, Brett Myers, Shaun Marcum, Trevor Bauer
Starting pitching crop thinning
11:34
AM ETFree Agent Starters Recommend0Comments15EmailFree Agent Starting PitchersZack Greinke, RHP | Dodgers: six years, $147 millionAnibal Sanchez, RHP | Tigers: five years, $80 million Kyle Lohse, RHPEdwin Jackson, RHP | Cubs: four years. $52 millionBrett Myers, RHP | Indians: one year, $7 millionRyan Dempster, RHP | Red Sox: two years, $26.5 millionJeremy Guthrie, RHP | Royals: three years, $25 millionBrandon McCarthy, RHP | D-backs: two years, $15.5 millionHisashi Iwakuma, RHP | Mariners: two years, $15 millionHiroki Kuroda, RHP | Yankees: one year, $15 millionDan Haren, RHP | Nationals: one year, $13 millionFrancisco Liriano, LHP | Pirates: two years, $12.75 millionShaun Marcum, RHPRoy Oswalt, RHPJoe Saunders, LHP
Daisuke Matsuzaka, RHPCarlos Villanueva, RHP | Cubs: two years, $10 millionLohse remains the top free agent starting pitcher available and is now one of the few that warrant a guaranteed spot in the rotation with whatever team he signs with this winter.
Shaun Marcum is also still on the market, as is Joe Saunders. After that clubs seeking rotation help may have to check the trade market.
The Dodgers could trade Aaron Harang or Chris Capuano, particularly if they feel confident Ted Lilly will be of help in 2013.
Other free agents include Jair Jurrjens, Jonathan Sanchez, Erik Bedard, Freddy Garcia, Derek Lowe, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Roy Oswalt and Carlos Zambrano. Gavin Floyd is another potential trade candidate.
Two contenders that still could look to add rotation help are the Boston Red Sox and Cincinnati Reds. The Reds are transitioning Aroldis Chapman to a starting role, but if the opportunity arises to add quality one would imagine GM Walt Jocketty would jump at the chance.
The Red Sox did add Ryan Dempster, but a glance at their rotation candidates suggests there's room for another significant acquisition, particularly if the club plans to compete with the Rays, Yankees and Blue Jays.
Javier Vazquez, who did not pitch in 2012, is reportedly eyeing a comeback.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Texas Rangers, Anibal Sanchez, Los Angeles Dodgers, Los Angeles Angels, Dan Haren, Shaun Marcum, Francisco Liriano, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Ryan Dempster, James Shields, Francisco Liriano, Zack Greinke, Ryan Dempster
Bold move for Rockies?
11:28
AM ETColorado Rockies Recommend0Comments7EmailIf the season were to start today -- and thank goodness it doesn't, because the weather outside is frightful, and the fire is so delightful ... also, if the season started in mid-December, Dean Martin would have nothing about which to sing -- the Colorado Rockies might be an arm short in their rotation.
Among the club's present options are Juan Nicasio, Christian Friedrich, Jhoulys Chacin, Tyler Chatwood, Drew Pomeranz and Jorge De La Rosa. There's nothing wrong with such a collection on the surface, but ...
Nicasio and De La Rosa are coming off serious injuries, Chatwood may belong in the bullpen and both Pomeranz and Friedrich still need work on their control and command.
Troy Renck of the Denver Post tweets that the Rockies are eyeing Jeff Karstens and Freddy Garcia, and the club was linked to Rick Porcello last week.
The Tigers are fielding calls on Drew Smyly, too, an arm that could interest the Rockies, though they may prefer to spend a few million bucks rather than giving up talent to acquire one.
Jeff Francis has also been linked to the Rockies and remaining free agents such as Aaron Cook, Derek Lowe, Shaun Marcum, Kevin Millwood, and Chris Young could all be considerations.
ESPN Insider's Jim Bowden writes Thursday that if the Rockies are bold, perhaps they could land a couple of high-impact arms:
- Jason A. Churchill
Jim Bowden | The GM's Office
How the Rockies get pitching
"Rockies give up: Carlos Gonzalez
Acquire: Trevor Rosenthal, Shelby Miller and Jon Jay (from the St. Louis Cardinals)
The Rockies have said they don't plan on trading Gonzalez, but they also know if they don?t do something drastic to address their starting rotation woes, it could be a few long summers in Denver. Gonzalez would give the Cardinals the best and most balanced lineup in the National League. To put Gonzalez in the middle of Matt Holliday, Carlos Beltran, Allen Craig andDavid Freese sets them up for the short- and long-term as they wait for Oscar Taveras to take over for Beltran in 2014. CarGo is locked up through 2017 at less than $15 million per year, which is very reasonable for a player of his caliber. And before you say that Gonzalez is simply a product of Coors Field, remember that people used to say the same thing about Holliday, and he has proven that theory incorrect in St. Louis. Rosenthal and Miller are both close to the majors and have upside. They are the kind of talented arms the Rockies lack. Jay is a solid outfielder, and he would be a nice fit in Colorado.
Tags:Rich Harden, Kevin Millwood, Shaun Marcum, Aaron Cook, Carlos Villanueva, Derek Lowe, Colorado Rockies, Jeff Karstens, Freddy Garcia, Rick Porcello, Drew Smyly
O's radar
9:37
AM ETBaltimore Orioles Recommend0Comments0EmailWile the rest of the American League East has either made significant additions to their roster or reloaded with the same crew, the Baltimore Orioles land somewhere in between. They aren't yet satisfied with their pitching staff, however, and remain interested in a starter and a reliever, tweeted Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun.
Rotation candidates for O's
Jason Hammel, RHPWei-Yin Chen, LHPZach Britton, LHPChris Tillman, RHPMiguel Gonzalez, RHPSteve Johnson, RHPJake Arrieta, RHPDylan Bundy, RHPThe starter is Joe Saunders, though if the market on Kyle Lohse falls to them the club could have strong interest. The reliever is Matt Lindstrom, whom the Orioles traded to Arizona to acquire Saunders last summer.
Connolly notes that several clubs are showing interest in Lindstrom.
As of New Year's Day, the Orioles' rotation is unsettled, but adding a veteran like Saunders could mean the bullpen for Matusz and it could stave off the big leagues for a short time for Bundy. There's also a chance the Orioles trade one of the above eight if they are able to sign Saunders or Lohse.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Baltimore Orioles, Zach Britton, Chris Tillman, Dylan Bundy, Kyle Lohse, Joe Saunders, Matt Lindstrom
Sox scouting Abreu
8:59
AM ETBobby Abreu | Dodgers Recommend0Comments0EmailBobby Abreu will turn 39 before the start of the 2013 schedule and his skills have declined markedly the past few years. He no longer fits as an outfielder -- he''s never been a good fielder, even in his youth -- and hasn't hit left-handed pitching at all since 2009. So why would the Boston Red Sox be scouting him in Venezuela, as reported by Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald?
One would have to imagine that Abreu's role with a contending club would be limited to the occasional start at designated hitter versus a right-handed pitcher and some pinch-hitting duties. For Boston, it couldn't be much more than that with David Ortiz signed, sealed and delivered at DH.
Lauber did note that it's unlikely the Red Sox will sign Abreu, but some club could take a shot at him on a minor league contract with an invite to big-league camp.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Bobby Abreu, David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox
A few top FAs remain
8:01
AM ETTop Remaining Free Agents Recommend0Comments8EmailOnly two free agents on Keith Law's Top 50 free agent rankings remain available -- centerfielder Michael Bourn and right-hander Kyle Lohse -- but they both rank in the top 10, suggesting there are still some good talents for clubs to add to their rosters.
Closer Rafael Soriano (No. 14) also remains available, as does first baseman Adam LaRoche (No. 16), Shaun Marcum (No. 23) and Lance Berkman (No. 2
.The relief market still boasts a few top setup men, including a few with closing experience such as Kyle Farnsworth (No. 3
, Jose Valverde (No. 34) and Francisco Rodriguez (No. 46).Daisuke Matsuzaka (No. 47) and Delmon Young (No. 45) also remain free agents as their markets develop at a snail's pace.
Bourn and agent Scott Boras entered the offseason with big money on the mind, no doubt, but it may be in their best interest to take a one-year deal and re-enter the market next year when fewer center field options are available.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Adam LaRoche, Delmon Young, Jose Valverde, Rafael Soriano, Kyle Farnsworth, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Kyle Lohse, Michael Bourn
January 1, 2013Fish willing to listen?
4:03
PM ETGiancarlo Stanton | Marlins Recommend0Comments72EmailTop collections of youth
1. San Diego Padres
Yasmani Grandal, Case Kelly, Rymer Liriano, Max Fried, Austin Hedges, Jedd Gyorko, Joe Ross, Zach Eflin, Walker Weickel 2. Tampa Bay Rays
Chris Archer, Enny Romero, Drew Vettleson, Blake Snell, Richie Shaffer, Taylor Guerreri, Desmond Jennings, Hak-Ju Lee, Alex Colome 3. Seattle Mariners
Taijuan Walker, Kyle Seager, Dustin Ackley, Danny Hultzen, Brandon Maurer, Nick Franklin, Brad Miller, James Paxton, Victor Sanchez 4. Oakland Athletics
Jarrod Parker, A.J. Cole, Addison Russell, Sony Gray, Dan Straily, Chris Carter, Michael Choice, Derek Norris 5. Pittsburgh Pirates
Jameson Taillon, Josh Bell, Starling Marte, Tony Sanchez, Gerrit Cole, Gregory Polanco, Alen Hanson, Wyatt Mathisen, Luis Heredia One of the hottest topics in rumors circles is the idea that the Miami Marlins may field offers for right fielder Giancarlo Stanton. Since the Fish traded away their two best starting pitchers and their starting shortstop, the club has fielded calls, but sources tell Rumor Central that Miami's executives have refused to discuss trades involving the budding superstar. That stance could change fairly soon, however.
Just before 2012 turns to 2013, Dan Jennings, the Marlins assistant GM, told ESPN Insider Jim Bowden that the club will listen to all offers on Stanton but is not actively shopping the slugger.
Jennings' point is that no player is untouchable, but the Fish would have to be overwhelmed to consider such a deal.
Stanton will not be arbitration eligible until this time next year, which means he will spend 2013 as a 23-year-old threat to the 50-homer mark and won't crack the half-million dollar mark in terms of salary. He'll be affordable, even for the Marlins, through 2014, too.
Stanton's moderate salary, however, may not -- and should not -- prevent the club from seeing what they can get for him between now and the start of the 2014 season. It may be ideal to let him continue to mash at the plate, perhaps hit 40-50 long balls this coming season and drive his trade value through the roof.
Stanton, of course, made it known how unhappy he was with the organization's decision to have a fire sale, creating a scenario in which its difficult to believe he'd ever sign an extension to stay in South Beach. Once the team decides the time is right to seriously consider trading him, rival clubs will line up around the block to make their pitch.
If Stanton gets off to a great start in '13, it's conceivable that the Marlins brass could check the offer sheets to see what they can get, and if a team overwhelms them, Stanton could be dealt before the trade deadline.
Such a transaction, whether it takes place over the summer or between seasons, is likely to be a franchise changer, at least if Miami handles it appropriately and demands the right kind of talents in return. The timing would likely be best somewhere in the next 15 months or so, since the club-controlled years are extremely valuable, and the closer he gets to free agency the more his value drops.
Any of the 29 other clubs would be interested, and a handful of those that have strong farm systems and good-to-great young talents in the big leagues will have a shot to land the Big Fish. They'll likely have to wait a year, but chances are, Stanton will be worth the wait -- and the premium bait it will require to get the Marlins to bite.
It's worth noting that Jon Morosi reported Monday night that the Marlins received a call from the Mariners about Stanton, though we have to assume several clubs have contacted Miami to inquire. ESPN Insider's Jim Bowden tweeted over the weekend that the Fish are willing to listen, but have no plans to move Stanton and are not shopping him around the league.
Bowden writes that the Rangers could be equipped to get a deal done:
- Jason A. Churchill
Jim Bowden | The GM's Office
Stanton to Texas?
"Stanton is the No. 1 young right-handed power hitter in game, and he already has 93 career homers despite turning 23 just last month. But Stanton is no one-dimensional slugger. He is also an above-average right fielder with an above-average arm. He studies the game as well as any young player and has terrific work ethic and baseball instincts. If he stays healthy, he'll have a chance to join the 600 home run club someday. The Marlins won't contend until at least 2014, so the prudent move would be to trade him and maximize the return for a player of Stanton's caliber. What's next: The Marlins have said they won't trade Stanton, realizing that he is not only their best player and a future superstar but, more importantly, also their only drawing card. But if he shows up to camp and continues to be unhappy, the Marlins will have to listen to trade proposals come July. There is not a young position player in baseball who has more trade value than Stanton, and with the rebuilding Marlins, if a team such as the Texas Rangers wants to empty the farm for him, the Fish will have to listen."
Tags:Miami Marlins, Giancarlo Stanton
January 1, 2013BoSox next move
10:55
AM ETBoston Red Sox Recommend0Comments6EmailThe Boston Red Sox have added a few bats this offseason -- David Ross, Stephen Drew, Shane Victorino, Jonny Gomes and are working on Mike Napoli, who agreed to a deal weeks ago. Now the club may be after free agent first baseman Adam LaRoche.
LaRoche has been holding out for a three-year deal from the Washington Nationals and has also drawn interest from the Baltimore Orioles. It's unclear whether or not the Red Sox would finalize the agreement with Napoli and still sign LaRoche. It may be one or the other.
I have to wonder why the Red Sox aren't being more aggressive in terms of fixing the starting rotation, however. The club finished 2012 with the fourth-worst ERA in baseball and their starters ranked fourth-worst with a 5.19 ERA.
The Sox have added Ryan Dempster, who should help some, but on paper it appears there is still a lack of stability, even if John Lackey can return and help sometime in the first half of 2013.
The free agent market is almost dry, with Kyle Lohse the top remaining free agent, but there's always the trade route, and perhaps GM Ben Cherington and crew are monitoring the likes of Chris Capuano, Bud Norris, Rick Porcello, Drew Smyly, Matt Garza and Ricky Nolasco.
Cliff Lee is a name to keep an eye on, too, though the Phillies' motivations for moving Lee may be gone since the free agent market for outfielders and third basemen is fairly empty.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Chicago Cubs, Miami Marlins, Ricky Nolasco, Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies, Boston Red Sox, Mike Napoli, Adam LaRoche, Chris Capuano, Drew Smyly, Rick Porcello
December 31, 2012Marlins pass on Cuban prospects
1:57
PM ETMiami Marlins Recommend0Comments0EmailThe Miami Marlins have "zero interest" in Cuban prospects Dariel Alvarez or Aledmys Diaz, both of whom are scheduled to work out for MLB scouts this weekend, reports MLB.com's Joe Frisaro.
Alvarez is a 24-year-old outfielder, and the 22-year-old Diaz is a shortstop.
The Marlins were among the teams interested in Cuban-born outfielder Yoenis Cespedes last season before he ended up signing with the A's. But the Fish are in a cost-cutting mode this winter and show no willingness to pay out any big bonuses.
- Doug Mittler
Tags:Miami Marlins
December 31, 2012D-backs may be in no rush to deal
10:26
AM ETArizona Diamondbacks Recommend0Comments3EmailThe future of Justin Upton in Arizona has been speculated all offseason, even though general manager Kevin Towers insisted a few weeks ago it is highly unlikely the outfielder would be traded following the acquisition of shortstop Didi Gregorius from the Cincinnati Reds.
The somewhat unexpected signing of Cody Ross earlier this month leaves the D-backs with a stockpile of outfielders, perhaps paving the way for a trade. If the D-backs opened the regular season today, they'd have Jason Kubel, Justin Upton and Ross in the outfield. Gerardo Parra would be back on the bench and Adam Eaton and/or A.J. Pollock, could be back at Triple-A.
Unless the Texas Rangers blow Towers away with an offer for Upton, the D-backs could be best served by holding on to their stockpile for the time being and wait for a need to develop, suggests MLB.com's Richard Justice.
The D-backs, for example, would have some trading chips if the third base platoon of Chris Johnson and Eric Chavez doesn't pan out. Virtually all teams could use an additional starter come midseason, so Towers could be inclined to be patient.
- Doug Mittler
Tags:Justin Upton, Arizona Diamondbacks
December 31, 2012Wells likely to stay?
9:50
AM ETVernon Wells | Angels Recommend0Comments2EmailThe Los Angeles Angels will be paying $21 million each of the next two seasons to Vernon Wells. The veteran outfielder, of course, hasn't delivered an equivalent bang for the buck, but he still has value to the Halos, wrote Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register last week.
At the moment, Wells is slotted as the fourth outfielder behind Mike Trout, Josh Hamilton and Peter Bourjos. But given that Bourjos is coming off a rough season at the plate (.220), the Angels may need to cover themselves with a veteran backup, especially since they may still be reluctant to go with the unproven Kole Calhoun as a fourth outfielder.
Wells' name has been linked recently to the Yankees and Phillies, but if the Angels are forced to eat the lion's share of the contract to make any deal happen, it may make sense to simply keep him around.
- Doug Mittler
Tags:Vernon Wells, Los Angeles Angels
December 31, 2012Comeback for Vazquez?
9:07
AM ETJavier Vazquez | Marlins Recommend0Comments3EmailJavier Vazquez, who last appeared in the major leagues in 2011 with the Marlins, is currently honing his craft this winter for the Ponce Lions in Puerto Rico.
The 36-year-old plans to pitch in the World Baseball Classic and tells Ralph Pagan Archeval of ESPNDeportes.com he is considering a comeback, preferably with a contender. "I have not closed the doors," the 36-year-old Vazquez said.
Vazquez had 12 straight seasons of double-digit wins, including a career-best 16 for the Expos in 2001.
- Doug Mittler
Tags:Javier Vazquez
December 31, 2012Lohse's options
8:52
AM ETKyle Lohse | Cardinals Recommend0Comments12EmailAlthough both clubs already have full rotations, the Dodgers and Tigers could be in play for Lohse, writes the Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo. In those cases, a starter would likely have to be traded -- Chris Capuano or Aaron Harang for the Dodgers, or Rick Porcello for the Tigers -- before either team goes hard after Lohse.
Kyle Lohse is easily the best pitcher still on the free agent market, but it's been a slow-go for the veteran this winter.
Lohse has watched idly as Anibal Sanchez and Edwin Jackson -- two fellow righties thought to be in the same class -- have inked multi-year deals, but it now appears that the picture is becoming clearer for the former Cardinal.
MASN's Roch Kubatko, though, thinks it's unlikely the O's will land Lohse, citing the club's inclination to avoid signing pitchers to big contracts, as well as the desire to hang onto its first-round pick in the 2013 draft.
There has been speculation, like this from ESPN Insider Jim Bowden, that the teams most interested in Lohse are the Orioles, Brewers and perhaps Texas. Bowden explains why the best fit for Lohse would be in Baltimore:
- Jason Catania
Jim Bowden
Lohse makes sense for O's
"For the Orioles to make it back to the playoffs they could really use a proven starter to slot at or near the front of their rotation. Lohse, 34, has a 3.11 ERA in 399 1/3 innings over the last two seasons and would give the O's rotation some much-needed innings and reliability until top prospects Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman arrive. The AL East is wide open, and the Orioles can't sit around and let someone else take the division. "
Tags:Milwaukee Brewers, Baltimore Orioles, Edwin Jackson, Anibal Sanchez, Boston Red Sox, Texas Rangers, Los Angeles Angels, Kyle Lohse
December 31, 2012Why Myers remains unsigned
8:44
AM ETBrett Myers | White Sox Recommend0Comments0EmailFree agent Brett Myers has expressed a desire to again work as a starter after spending last season in the bullpen for the Astros and White Sox. But the main reason Myers remains unsigned may be money, reports Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.
"The feeling is he's been asking for too much money," a National League GM tells Cafardo. "I think teams are waiting for the price to come down. He can certainly help a team. I think a lot of teams have him on a wish list."
Myers, who made $11 million last season, has been linked to the Padres, Orioles and Twins - clubs that will pay nothing close to that figure in 2013.
- Doug Mittler
Tags:Brett Myers, San Diego Padres, Minnesota Twins
December 31, 2012Braves' left field search
8:20
AM ETAtlanta Braves Recommend0Comments5EmailThe biggest splash of the Atlanta Braves' offseason was the signing of center fielder B.J. Upton, but they are still searching for someone who will play alongside him in left field.
If the season began today, the Braves could go with Juan Francisco as a primary or platoon third baseman and have Martin Prado split time between left field and third base instead of moving to third full-time. Another left field platoon option is Reed Johnson, who re-signed earlier this month.
David O'Brien of the Atlanta JC tweeted Sunday that he expects the Braves to pass on free agent Delmon Young, who was primarily a DH in Detroit last season.
Scott Hairston may be the best option available, but the Braves seem unlikely to give a multi-year deal that he is seeking.
- Doug Mittler
Tags:Scott Hairston, Delmon Young, Atlanta Braves
December 31, 2012LaRoche and the new CBA
7:52
AM ETAdam LaRoche | Nationals Recommend0Comments0EmailIt's New Year's Eve and free agent Adam LaRoche is still on the open market. LaRoche has indicated that he prefers to remain in Washington with the Nationals, but he's also sticking to his target of landing a three-year deal.
Another reason LaRoche remains unsigned is the unintended consequences of the new collective bargaining agreement, as outlined earlier this month by ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney.
The new rules were designed to ensure that only elite free agents, who received $13.3 million qualifying offers from their former teams, were attached to draft-pick compensation. The hope was that the compensation wouldn't hinder the players at all this winter. But LaRoche received a qualifying offer, and interested parties may be reluctant to surrender a pick for his services.
With their deal with Mike Napoli in limbo, the Boston Red Sox have been mentioned as a serious suitor for LaRoche. But Tim Britton of the Providence Journal the Red Sox cautions the Red Sox should be cautious about surrendering a draft pick that could prove to be very valuable.
- Doug Mittler
Tags:Adam LaRoche, Boston Red Sox, Washington Nationals
December 31, 2012Mets counting on Gee
7:22
AM ETDillon Gee | Mets Recommend0Comments0EmailDespite the fact that he's still recovering from surgery to address a blood clot in his right shoulder, Dillon Gee will be an important piece for the New York Mets in 2013.
In the aftermath of the R.A. Dickey trade, Gee will be counted on even more, reports the Daily News' Anthony McCarron.
The 26-year-old right-hander has been solid over parts of three seasons in Flushing, posting a 21-16 record and 4.06 ERA in 49 starts. He was having his best year yet in 2012, before the scary blood clot cost him the entire second half.
Good news is, the surgery, which widened a damaged artery in his shoulder in order to increase blood flow, was deemed a success, so Gee should be ready for a full spring training. That's important for the Mets entering 2013, as the staff could very much use a healthy Gee pitching in the middle of a rotation that needs some stability. Outside of veteran lefty Jonathon Niese, the current five-man has plenty of questions, including an ace with his own injury issues (Johan Santana), a pair of youngsters with little big league experience (Matt Harvey and Jenrry Mejia) and of course, the loss of the reigning NL Cy Young winner.
- Jason Catania
Tags:New York Mets, Jonathon Niese, Matt Harvey, Ken Harvey, Jenrry Mejia, R.A. Dickey, Johan Santana, Dillon Gee
December 31, 2012More offense at Petco?
7:21
AM ETSan Diego Padres Recommend0Comments2EmailIt's been a quiet offseason for the San Diego Padres so far, but that doesn't mean the club's offense won't improve next year.
The Padres are moving in the fences 10 feet along the length of right field and in left center in Petco Park, as San Diego Union-Tribune's Bill Center notes.
That can only help hitters, especially when Petco was the third-worst in baseball in the home run aspect of park factors: at .626, the stadium suppressed long balls by nearly 40 percent below league average.
Taking that even further, lefty hitters have been especially hurt in the homer department over the past three seasons (39 percent below average vs. seven percent below for righties).
While we won't know how the new dimensions will play until games get underway, this is the kind of thing that might make certain Padres hitters, primarily lefty-swingers like Yonder Alonso, Will Venable and especially switch-hitting Chase Headley (who managed to hit 13 of his career-high 31 homers at home in 2012) slightly more valuable -- or at least, more enticing -- for fantasy purposes next year.
- Jason Catania
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Giants sign Scot Proctor, and Romo had an 'issue' at the airport haha
Top 10 bullpens in the majors.
Top 10 teams with critique from scouts.
Angels haven't really improved.
Players whose jobs are in jeopardy.
Curt Schilling is a Hall of Famer.
In rounding out our series of winter top 10 rankings, here are the top 10 bullpens in Major League Baseball (and I'm hedging a little in this category because of the uncertainty about what role one big-time pitcher will have.)
1. Atlanta Braves
In order to have a shutdown bullpen, you have to have a dominant closer, and the Braves' Craig Kimbrel is coming off one of the greatest seasons ever for a reliever: Opposing hitters had 231 plate appearances against him, and he struck out 116 -- almost exactly half -- in 62 2/3 innings, with just 14 walks and 27 hits. When he threw strike 1 on the first pitch of the at-bat (147 of those 231 plate appearances), hitters went 16-for-143, with 97 strikeouts and one extra-base hit. Here's one more: After hitters got ahead in the count, they went 5-for-32, with 10 strikeouts. Just one more: With two outs and runners in scoring position, opposing hitters were 1-for-18 with 10 strikeouts.
In other words, Kimbrel's the best closer in the game, and at the outset of his career, he has established an unprecedented trajectory: Nobody has been this good so soon.
The Braves have outstanding relievers stacked all around Kimbrel, from the underrated Eric O'Flaherty (1.73 ERA in 64 appearances last season) to Jonny Venters (who seemed to bounce back in a big way after a rough first half) to Cristhian Martinez (65 strikeouts in 73 2/3 innings) to Luis Avilan. And, oh by the way, the Braves swapped for hard-throwing Jordan Walden (average fastball velocity last year: 96.3 mph) during the offseason, with some confidence they can help his command, and if that happens, Atlanta could essentially end games after the fifth and sixth innings.
This is an extraordinary bullpen, and the Braves' staff and front office deserve credit for changing the way the Atlanta relievers were rested in 2012, after the relievers were worn out in 2011. Some teams don't change; the Braves did.
2. Tampa Bay Rays
The names change almost every year, and the performance remains the same. Tampa Bay led the American League in bullpen ERA, after Fernando Rodney became the Rays' latest reclamation project (watching the Tampa Bay bullpen every year is like watching an episode of American Restoration, on which junk is turned into gleaming excellence), and he merely became a Cy Young candidate, with just 43 hits and two homers allowed in 74 2/3 innings. He is surrounded by Jake McGee and Joel Peralta and perhaps Roberto Hernandez -- the pitcher formerly known as Fausto Carmona -- who has always had great stuff but an inconsistent delivery. It would surprise no one in the sport if we checked back in August and find that Hernandez has become a dominant set-up man. Such is the reputation of the Rays for identifying bullpen talent, and the reputation of pitching Jim Hickey for refining that talent.
3. Kansas City Royals
In a September conversation, some of the White Sox hitters and staff talked about the Royals' bullpen with complete awe and respect. No team, Adam Dunn said, had a collection of power arms like the Royals. "It's like every guy comes out of the bullpen throwing 97 [mph]" Dunn said.
The bullpen might be the best piece of hope for Royals' fans to hang onto, because if the Kansas City rotation can be at least mediocre -- just average -- the Royals' bullpen would win a lot of games in the late innings. Aaron Crow had 65 punchouts in 64 2/3 innings; Tim Collins whiffed 93 in 69 2/3 innings; closer Greg Holland had 91 strikeouts in 67 innings. The Royals' bullpen racked up 535 strikeouts in 561 1/3 innings, and finished sixth in the majors' in ERA, at 3.17.
4. Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles had a makeshift rotation all season, because of injuries and performance, and yet the Baltimore bullpen held up despite an extraordinary workload. No team that made the playoffs needed more bullpen innings than the Orioles, and yet the Baltimore relievers finished fifth in ERA at 3.00, a tribute to the way Buck Showalter and his coaches use all parts of their pitching staff. Closer Jim Johnson had a major-league best 51 saves, with just 15 walks in 68 2/3 innings, and got a whole lot of help from Pedro Strop, Darren O'Day and Luis Ayala.
One of the interesting decisions the Orioles will face in spring training will be what to do with left-hander Brian Matusz, who has generally struggled as a starter -- but had moments to total dominance out of the bullpen down the stretch. It may be that Matusz is a modern version of Arthur Rhodes, and is just more comfortable pitching out of the bullpen; he told me during the playoffs he really loved throwing in relief.
5. San Francisco Giants
Arizona GM Kevin Towers is known for being one of the best at piecing together a bullpen, so it should be no surprise that his former manager in San Diego, Bruce Bochy, is known for being among the best handlers of a relief corps. Over the last four seasons, this is how the San Francisco bullpen has ranked in the majors in ERA:
2009 2nd (3.49)
2010 2nd (2.99)
2011 2nd (3.04)
2012 15th (3.56)
Sergio Romo took over from Brian Wilson as closer last season, seamlessly -- especially in the postseason. In the playoffs and World Series, the Giants' bullpen, bolstered by a temporary relief assignment for Tim Lincecum, was difference-making. Jeremy Affeldt didn't allow a run in 10 1/3 innings, and struck out 10. The Giants' bullpen has nice righty/lefty balance, swing-and-miss capability, and experience. What's not to like?
6. Oakland Athletics
The Athletics finished fourth in bullpen ERA last season, at 2.94, and they basically return the entire group: All-Star Ryan Cook, Grant Balfour, Jerry Blevins, Pat Neshek, Evan Scribner and others. Cook, who was traded to the Athletics in the Trevor Cahill deal, held opposing hitters to a .166 batting average last season.
7. Los Angeles Dodgers
J.P. Howell agreed to terms with the Dodgers Friday, another good piece to an already deep bullpen; the left-hander saw his velocity increase markedly during the 2012 season, in his first full year back from shoulder surgery, to the point that his highest radar gun reading came in his last appearance of the season. Don Mattingly's weapons include Brandon League (who posted a 2.30 ERA for the Dodgers after being acquired from Seattle), Kenley Jansen (99 strikeouts in 65 innings, despite some heart issues) and Ronald Belisario.
8. Cincinnati Reds
The Reds will give Aroldis Chapman a chance to be a part of their rotation in spring training, and if he transitions into a starting pitcher, Cincinnati will still have a very good bullpen, with Jonathan Broxton, Sean Marshall, Jose Arredondo, Logan Ondrusek and Sam LeCure. But taking Chapman out of their bullpen would be like removing Miguel Cabrera from the Detroit lineup: Chapman was a relief monster last season, whiffing 122 batters and allowing just 35 hits in 71 2/3 innings. Cincinnati was No. 1 in bullpen ERA last season, at 2.65, and Chapman was the biggest reason for that.
9. San Diego Padres
To say that the Padres have a good bullpen is like saying that the sun rises in the morning and sets in the evening: We've come to expect it. San Diego finished ninth in bullpen ERA last year at 3.24, getting good closer work out of Huston Street when he was healthy. The Padres benefitted from a lot of help from a lot of different relievers, but incredibly, 10 different San Diego relievers who had 11 or more appearances averaged more than a strikeout per inning, in a season in which the rotation was ravaged by injury. It will be interesting to see how the historically strong performance of the Padres' pitchers -- and those of the Mariners, for that matter -- will be affected by the decisions to reduce the dimensions in the ballparks in San Diego and Seattle.
10. St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals had a lot of bullpen adventures in the first half of last year, but by the time the postseason began, St. Louis had developed something pretty special in the quartet of closer Jason Motte, Mitchell Boggs, Edward Mujica and, most notably, in the 22-year-old Trevor Rosenthal. In the playoffs, Rosenthal allowed two hits and no runs in 8 2/3 innings, while racking up 15 strikeouts with an overpowering fastball -- more strikeouts than any St. Louis pitcher in the postseason other than Adam Wainwright.
Look, relievers are notoriously inconsistent, and history shows that today's bullpen hero can quickly disappear tomorrow. But if Rosenthal follows up on that thread of late-season success, St. Louis could have a pretty dynamic group. The Cardinals could really use a bounce-back season from Mark Rzepczynski, to provide some left-handed balance.
10a. Arizona Diamondbacks
Set-up man David Hernandez is the biggest reason why the Diamondbacks could have one of the best bullpens in the majors -- he had 98 strikeouts in 68 1/3 innings, after all. But Arizona needs J.J. Putz to remain healthy, to keep Hernandez in the set-up role, and they need a return on their two-year investment in Heath Bell; Towers, who traded for Bell when he was GM of the Padres, traded for him again after noting that his velocity never dipped during his struggles in Miami last year. Brad Ziegler appeared in 77 games and held right-handed hitters to a .201 average, with just one homer in 166 at-bats.
Best of the rest: The Red Sox and Yankees could have top 10 bullpens -- if. That's the key word for them: If. If Daniel Bard and Andrew Bailey bounce back to be what they were in 2011, Boston could have an excellent and deep bullpen.
If the 43-year-old Mariano Rivera comes back from a knee reconstruction and pitches the way he did in his last full season -- in 2011, he posted a 2.16 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP -- then the Yankees' bullpen will be outstanding. Time and again over the last decade, last rites have been performed over Rivera's career at the first sign of a slump -- some of them in this column -- and time and again, Rivera has bounced back from blips to resume his preeminence. At some point, age could overtake the greatest closer of all-time. Will it be in 2012? We'll see.
The Philadelphia Phillies have a chance to have a top-10 bullpen, depending on how Mike Adams recovers from his late-season collapse and how some of the power arms around Jonathan Papelbon develop, like Phillippe Aumont.
Texas has a lot of intriguing parts among its possible set-up group, like Joakim Soria, but some uncertainty over who will be able to fill which role.
Notables
• The Dodgers are deciding between massive TV contracts.
• Lance Berkman is sitting on the Texas Rangers' offer to him, writes Jeff Wilson.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. Shane Victorino says he wanted to play for the Phillies.
2. The Yankees claimed Russ Canzler on waivers, in their search for right-handed hitting. Canzler is primarily viewed as a 1B-DH type, but has played third base and the outfield, and given the fact that the Yankees probably aren't going to make a lot of additions before spring training, Canzler is going to get a serious look in Tampa. He's 26 years old.
3. The Orioles appear unwilling to give Joe Saunders the multi-year deal he wants, writes Eduardo Encina.
4. The Red Sox added a couple of minor-league free agents.
5. The Cardinals added a couple of minor-league coaches.
6. Dayton Moore talked about the Royals' offseason moves.
7. Brett Myers passed his physical with the Indians.
8. The Cubs signed Dontrelle Willis.
9. The Jays claimed a pitcher on waivers.
10. The Rockies have interest in Brandon Webb and Jeff Karstens, writes Troy Renck.
11. Eli Whiteside cleared waivers and accepted an outright assignment to the Class AAA roster of the Rangers. He effectively becomes the No. 3 catcher in the Texas organization, behind Geovany Soto and A.J. Pierzynski.
12. Geoff Baker writes about the value of Robert Andino to the Mariners.
1. Atlanta Braves
In order to have a shutdown bullpen, you have to have a dominant closer, and the Braves' Craig Kimbrel is coming off one of the greatest seasons ever for a reliever: Opposing hitters had 231 plate appearances against him, and he struck out 116 -- almost exactly half -- in 62 2/3 innings, with just 14 walks and 27 hits. When he threw strike 1 on the first pitch of the at-bat (147 of those 231 plate appearances), hitters went 16-for-143, with 97 strikeouts and one extra-base hit. Here's one more: After hitters got ahead in the count, they went 5-for-32, with 10 strikeouts. Just one more: With two outs and runners in scoring position, opposing hitters were 1-for-18 with 10 strikeouts.
In other words, Kimbrel's the best closer in the game, and at the outset of his career, he has established an unprecedented trajectory: Nobody has been this good so soon.
The Braves have outstanding relievers stacked all around Kimbrel, from the underrated Eric O'Flaherty (1.73 ERA in 64 appearances last season) to Jonny Venters (who seemed to bounce back in a big way after a rough first half) to Cristhian Martinez (65 strikeouts in 73 2/3 innings) to Luis Avilan. And, oh by the way, the Braves swapped for hard-throwing Jordan Walden (average fastball velocity last year: 96.3 mph) during the offseason, with some confidence they can help his command, and if that happens, Atlanta could essentially end games after the fifth and sixth innings.
This is an extraordinary bullpen, and the Braves' staff and front office deserve credit for changing the way the Atlanta relievers were rested in 2012, after the relievers were worn out in 2011. Some teams don't change; the Braves did.
2. Tampa Bay Rays
The names change almost every year, and the performance remains the same. Tampa Bay led the American League in bullpen ERA, after Fernando Rodney became the Rays' latest reclamation project (watching the Tampa Bay bullpen every year is like watching an episode of American Restoration, on which junk is turned into gleaming excellence), and he merely became a Cy Young candidate, with just 43 hits and two homers allowed in 74 2/3 innings. He is surrounded by Jake McGee and Joel Peralta and perhaps Roberto Hernandez -- the pitcher formerly known as Fausto Carmona -- who has always had great stuff but an inconsistent delivery. It would surprise no one in the sport if we checked back in August and find that Hernandez has become a dominant set-up man. Such is the reputation of the Rays for identifying bullpen talent, and the reputation of pitching Jim Hickey for refining that talent.
3. Kansas City Royals
In a September conversation, some of the White Sox hitters and staff talked about the Royals' bullpen with complete awe and respect. No team, Adam Dunn said, had a collection of power arms like the Royals. "It's like every guy comes out of the bullpen throwing 97 [mph]" Dunn said.
The bullpen might be the best piece of hope for Royals' fans to hang onto, because if the Kansas City rotation can be at least mediocre -- just average -- the Royals' bullpen would win a lot of games in the late innings. Aaron Crow had 65 punchouts in 64 2/3 innings; Tim Collins whiffed 93 in 69 2/3 innings; closer Greg Holland had 91 strikeouts in 67 innings. The Royals' bullpen racked up 535 strikeouts in 561 1/3 innings, and finished sixth in the majors' in ERA, at 3.17.
4. Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles had a makeshift rotation all season, because of injuries and performance, and yet the Baltimore bullpen held up despite an extraordinary workload. No team that made the playoffs needed more bullpen innings than the Orioles, and yet the Baltimore relievers finished fifth in ERA at 3.00, a tribute to the way Buck Showalter and his coaches use all parts of their pitching staff. Closer Jim Johnson had a major-league best 51 saves, with just 15 walks in 68 2/3 innings, and got a whole lot of help from Pedro Strop, Darren O'Day and Luis Ayala.
One of the interesting decisions the Orioles will face in spring training will be what to do with left-hander Brian Matusz, who has generally struggled as a starter -- but had moments to total dominance out of the bullpen down the stretch. It may be that Matusz is a modern version of Arthur Rhodes, and is just more comfortable pitching out of the bullpen; he told me during the playoffs he really loved throwing in relief.
5. San Francisco Giants
Arizona GM Kevin Towers is known for being one of the best at piecing together a bullpen, so it should be no surprise that his former manager in San Diego, Bruce Bochy, is known for being among the best handlers of a relief corps. Over the last four seasons, this is how the San Francisco bullpen has ranked in the majors in ERA:
2009 2nd (3.49)
2010 2nd (2.99)
2011 2nd (3.04)
2012 15th (3.56)
Sergio Romo took over from Brian Wilson as closer last season, seamlessly -- especially in the postseason. In the playoffs and World Series, the Giants' bullpen, bolstered by a temporary relief assignment for Tim Lincecum, was difference-making. Jeremy Affeldt didn't allow a run in 10 1/3 innings, and struck out 10. The Giants' bullpen has nice righty/lefty balance, swing-and-miss capability, and experience. What's not to like?
6. Oakland Athletics
The Athletics finished fourth in bullpen ERA last season, at 2.94, and they basically return the entire group: All-Star Ryan Cook, Grant Balfour, Jerry Blevins, Pat Neshek, Evan Scribner and others. Cook, who was traded to the Athletics in the Trevor Cahill deal, held opposing hitters to a .166 batting average last season.
7. Los Angeles Dodgers
J.P. Howell agreed to terms with the Dodgers Friday, another good piece to an already deep bullpen; the left-hander saw his velocity increase markedly during the 2012 season, in his first full year back from shoulder surgery, to the point that his highest radar gun reading came in his last appearance of the season. Don Mattingly's weapons include Brandon League (who posted a 2.30 ERA for the Dodgers after being acquired from Seattle), Kenley Jansen (99 strikeouts in 65 innings, despite some heart issues) and Ronald Belisario.
8. Cincinnati Reds
The Reds will give Aroldis Chapman a chance to be a part of their rotation in spring training, and if he transitions into a starting pitcher, Cincinnati will still have a very good bullpen, with Jonathan Broxton, Sean Marshall, Jose Arredondo, Logan Ondrusek and Sam LeCure. But taking Chapman out of their bullpen would be like removing Miguel Cabrera from the Detroit lineup: Chapman was a relief monster last season, whiffing 122 batters and allowing just 35 hits in 71 2/3 innings. Cincinnati was No. 1 in bullpen ERA last season, at 2.65, and Chapman was the biggest reason for that.
9. San Diego Padres
To say that the Padres have a good bullpen is like saying that the sun rises in the morning and sets in the evening: We've come to expect it. San Diego finished ninth in bullpen ERA last year at 3.24, getting good closer work out of Huston Street when he was healthy. The Padres benefitted from a lot of help from a lot of different relievers, but incredibly, 10 different San Diego relievers who had 11 or more appearances averaged more than a strikeout per inning, in a season in which the rotation was ravaged by injury. It will be interesting to see how the historically strong performance of the Padres' pitchers -- and those of the Mariners, for that matter -- will be affected by the decisions to reduce the dimensions in the ballparks in San Diego and Seattle.
10. St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals had a lot of bullpen adventures in the first half of last year, but by the time the postseason began, St. Louis had developed something pretty special in the quartet of closer Jason Motte, Mitchell Boggs, Edward Mujica and, most notably, in the 22-year-old Trevor Rosenthal. In the playoffs, Rosenthal allowed two hits and no runs in 8 2/3 innings, while racking up 15 strikeouts with an overpowering fastball -- more strikeouts than any St. Louis pitcher in the postseason other than Adam Wainwright.
Look, relievers are notoriously inconsistent, and history shows that today's bullpen hero can quickly disappear tomorrow. But if Rosenthal follows up on that thread of late-season success, St. Louis could have a pretty dynamic group. The Cardinals could really use a bounce-back season from Mark Rzepczynski, to provide some left-handed balance.
10a. Arizona Diamondbacks
Set-up man David Hernandez is the biggest reason why the Diamondbacks could have one of the best bullpens in the majors -- he had 98 strikeouts in 68 1/3 innings, after all. But Arizona needs J.J. Putz to remain healthy, to keep Hernandez in the set-up role, and they need a return on their two-year investment in Heath Bell; Towers, who traded for Bell when he was GM of the Padres, traded for him again after noting that his velocity never dipped during his struggles in Miami last year. Brad Ziegler appeared in 77 games and held right-handed hitters to a .201 average, with just one homer in 166 at-bats.
Best of the rest: The Red Sox and Yankees could have top 10 bullpens -- if. That's the key word for them: If. If Daniel Bard and Andrew Bailey bounce back to be what they were in 2011, Boston could have an excellent and deep bullpen.
If the 43-year-old Mariano Rivera comes back from a knee reconstruction and pitches the way he did in his last full season -- in 2011, he posted a 2.16 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP -- then the Yankees' bullpen will be outstanding. Time and again over the last decade, last rites have been performed over Rivera's career at the first sign of a slump -- some of them in this column -- and time and again, Rivera has bounced back from blips to resume his preeminence. At some point, age could overtake the greatest closer of all-time. Will it be in 2012? We'll see.
The Philadelphia Phillies have a chance to have a top-10 bullpen, depending on how Mike Adams recovers from his late-season collapse and how some of the power arms around Jonathan Papelbon develop, like Phillippe Aumont.
Texas has a lot of intriguing parts among its possible set-up group, like Joakim Soria, but some uncertainty over who will be able to fill which role.
Notables
• The Dodgers are deciding between massive TV contracts.
• Lance Berkman is sitting on the Texas Rangers' offer to him, writes Jeff Wilson.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. Shane Victorino says he wanted to play for the Phillies.
2. The Yankees claimed Russ Canzler on waivers, in their search for right-handed hitting. Canzler is primarily viewed as a 1B-DH type, but has played third base and the outfield, and given the fact that the Yankees probably aren't going to make a lot of additions before spring training, Canzler is going to get a serious look in Tampa. He's 26 years old.
3. The Orioles appear unwilling to give Joe Saunders the multi-year deal he wants, writes Eduardo Encina.
4. The Red Sox added a couple of minor-league free agents.
5. The Cardinals added a couple of minor-league coaches.
6. Dayton Moore talked about the Royals' offseason moves.
7. Brett Myers passed his physical with the Indians.
8. The Cubs signed Dontrelle Willis.
9. The Jays claimed a pitcher on waivers.
10. The Rockies have interest in Brandon Webb and Jeff Karstens, writes Troy Renck.
11. Eli Whiteside cleared waivers and accepted an outright assignment to the Class AAA roster of the Rangers. He effectively becomes the No. 3 catcher in the Texas organization, behind Geovany Soto and A.J. Pierzynski.
12. Geoff Baker writes about the value of Robert Andino to the Mariners.
Top 10 teams with critique from scouts.
A couple of weeks ago, I posted a column with my first top 10 power rankings of winter. That top 10 stands for today's column, but I asked talent evaluators to critique the list and provide input on where they disagree.
To repeat: The top 10 rankings are mine; the commentary is from folks who work within the sport, from GMs to assistant GMs to scouts.
The ranking of one American League team, in particular, drew a lot of scrutiny, and my team at the top was also questioned.
1. San Francisco Giants
Longtime evaluator: "To me, the Giants are the best example of what a crapshoot the postseason is. I don't think they're a great team, but they've played well in a couple of Octobers; they were lucky. I don't think they're the best team."
NL evaluator: "They won World Series, but just about everything went right; I'm not sure if that will happen again."
2. Washington Nationals
NL evaluator: "A really good rotation, but there are some questions about bullpen and their left-handed power."
3. Detroit Tigers
NL evaluator: "A really good team gets better with full seasons from Anibal Sanchez and Victor Martinez, plus the addition of Torii Hunter."
4. Cincinnati Reds
NL evaluator: "I consider them at No. 1; they have it all with Shin-Soo Choo, a brilliant addition."
AL evaluator: "I don't necessarily drink the Reds Kool-Aid. They are losing the Astros from their schedule." He notes that although the Reds won 97 games, there were seven teams with a better run differential than the Reds last year.
5. Oakland Athletics
NL evaluator: "I could be wrong, but I think the A's will regress this year. They haven't done much in the offseason and I think that other clubs will be more ready for them in 2013. It's tough facing young pitchers with little track record, and that was more or less their entire rotation in the second half of the season. They should get all the credit in the world for what they did, but I just don't expect that level of success this year again."
Longtime AL evaluator: "I don't see Oakland that high. Anaheim and Texas will be ahead of them and both should be in the top 10. For me, Oakland doesn't have a No. 1 starter or a true middle-of-the-order bat. I'd have Detroit at No. 1."
AL official: "The one that stands out are the A's. I don't love the Rangers and Angels, but I like them as much as Oakland -- and having to play 38 games against those two teams is going to be a major factor for Oakland. A lot went right for the A's in 2012 -- to their credit of course, but [it's difficult to] expect that to continue on that level. The Rangers were considered the best team in the AL last year and they return a lot of the same [players], and the Angels are better as well.
"I just think we are discounting how good the Rangers and Angels are. That is going to hurt the A's."
6. Los Angeles Dodgers
NL evaluator: "A tremendous rotation and outfield (if their health keeps), Adrian Gonzalez, Hanley Ramirez, a good bullpen -- and tons of money."
7. St. Louis Cardinals
NL scout: "I'm not sure what they can expect to get out of [Chris] Carpenter, and they are going to miss Kyle Lohse a lot."
8. Toronto Blue Jays
NL evaluator: "I have questions about the league transition for R.A. Dickey, Mark Buehrle (at this stage in his career) and Josh Johnson, but it's a deep team, and much improved."
9. Atlanta Braves
NL evaluator: "This is a deep team, and look for a big walk year from Brian McCann."
10. New York Yankees
NL evaluator: "They still have Derek Jeter, Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera. Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson will be in their walk years, so they'll figure it out."
NL official: "It is pretty amazing to see the Yankees at No. 10 and no Boston, Angels, Philadelphia or Texas. Obviously, many teams outside the top 10 could conceivably win the World Series."
Best of the rest
Some of the evaluators believe the Rangers and Angels should be in the top 10. The NL evaluator on the Rangers: "They still have really good pitching, and they're really only one left-handed bat short of a potent offense."
Wrote a longtime NL evaluator: "I personally struggled with [you] excluding Texas, the Angels and Arizona from the top 10. Texas still has a very deep pitching and the addition of Joakim Soria should at some point make a very good bullpen even better. Both Mike Olt and Jurickson Profar could really impact that lineup.
"The Angels' offense is explosive 1 through 8 in their lineup, and their bullpen has gotten better, on paper, from a year ago; both starters they lost didn't really perform well at all and they still won 86 games. To me, Arizona is an overlooked club assuming they don't trade [Justin] Upton. With the addition of Brandon McCarthy for the innings and Heath Bell in a true setup role, this is a very dangerous team with the young starters they have coming. In fact the NL West will have three of the better teams in the league this year."
We'll close the series of top 10 rankings Saturday, with a listing of the top 10 bullpens.
• After the initial power rankings column was posted, with the Giants at No. 1, I got a lot of feedback from readers wondering why I had San Francisco at No. 1, rather than Washington or Detroit or the Dodgers or Reds. Some readers felt that given the questions about Tim Lincecum and other parts of the team, San Francisco doesn't appear to be as good on paper as some other teams.
In my opinion: After winning two titles in the past three years, they've earned the credit we should give them -- and it's evident that the Giants have become very adept at playing in close games, from the depth of their bullpen to the ability of manager Bruce Bochy to maneuver. They may not be as dynamic as the 1976 Reds or the 1927 Yankees, but they've been the best team in the National League playing in close games, and this cannot be dismissed as just luck; it's a trait.
Justin Havens of ESPN Stats & Information dug out these numbers:
In one-run postseason games over the past three years, the Giants are 8-1, which is in keeping with their regular-season success in close games. The Giants are 91-66 in one-run games over the past three regular seasons, which is the second-best mark by win percentage over that span (to Baltimore). It is first, however, in total wins.
Most Wins in One-Run Games (2010-12)
Giants 91
Reds 87
Twins 84
Phillies 82
Orioles 80
In total, the Giants have a .580 win percentage in one-run games over the past three seasons, while the other 29 teams cumulatively have a .497 win percentage.
Upton drama
At the time the Arizona Diamondbacks signed Cody Ross, the addition created an outfield surplus for Arizona and there was a sense among some rival evaluators that Jason Kubel was the most likely guy to be traded. But Arizona has made it clear to other teams that Justin Upton is available for the right offer, and the Diamondbacks' demands have become more open-ended, sources say.
At the start of the offseason, they had insisted on a shortstop in return for a deal, but now that they have Didi Gregorius as their long-term solution at that position -- he's the shortstop they landed in the Trevor Bauer deal with Cleveland and Cincinnati -- they're more in the mindset of looking for the best possible value for Upton. The Diamondbacks view Seattle as a possible partner for Upton, although the Mariners are on Upton's list of teams to which he could veto a trade (at a time when a lot of veterans have preferred to not play in Seattle).
It may turn out that Arizona's best Upton deal could come from the Rangers, who earlier in the offseason refused to part with either Jurickson Profar or Elvis Andrus for Upton. Other teams say the Rangers are willing to trade Derek Holland in the right deal.
Upton has been dangled on the market for two straight offseasons now, and it may be best for both sides now if Arizona just makes its best deal and moves on. If that doesn't happen, Upton's relationship with the organization is going to be the dominant story of the Diamondbacks' spring training, which wouldn't be good for the player or the team.
Free agents waiting
Kyle Lohse and Lance Berkman are still looking for fits in the market, writes Derrick Goold. From Derrick's story:
"It's not exactly the situation I envisioned, not at all," Lohse said in a telephone interview Thursday. "It hasn't been exactly a free market because I'm tied to a draft pick and other guys in my class aren't. That comes at a price. You can't compare this to anything in the past because it hasn't been like this."
Free of the draft-pick snag because Washington didn't give him a qualifying offer, Edwin Jackson finalized a four-year, $52-million deal with the Cubs on Wednesday. Other free-agent pitchers like Zack Greinke and Anibal Sanchez, both of whom have signed, were not eligible for qualifying offers because they were traded during the season.
Lohse doesn't doubt a fair contract will arrive, it just may take an inventive solution to make a fit and the compensation rule already has limited his suitors.
Lohse did an extensive radio interview on KNFS in St. Louis to talk about his situation, and you can listen to that here.
One way that free agents such as Lohse, Rafael Soriano and Michael Bourn could theoretically veer around the whole draft-pick compensation system would be to sign a non-roster, minor league deal. But a move like that would draw enormous scrutiny from MLB, which would strongly frown upon any effort to paint outside the lines of the newly negotiated labor deal.
Speaking of free agents, Nick Swisher was introduced in Cleveland and he was all smiles, as Paul Hoynes writes. His dad is happy that he's with the Indians, writes Terry Pluto. The Indians tugged at Swisher's Ohio State history, writes Marla Ridenour.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. Buck Showalter is close to an agreement on a contract extension, writes Roch Kubatko.
2. The Blue Jays have hired Tim Raines.
3. A date has not been set for Alex Rodriguez's surgery.
4. The Mets signed an infielder.
5. With Johan Santana on the way out, the Mets are hoping he can enhance his trade value.
6. The Red Sox will be scouting Javier Vazquez today, writes Rob Bradford.
7. The Reds would like to work out long-term deals with Homer Bailey and Mat Latos.
8. You can imagine Garrison Keillor nodding his head at this news: The good folks of Minnesota are on track to pay off Target Field early.
9. The Brewers signed an outfielder.
10. All sides politely addressed the question of a long-term deal for David Price. The bottom line: It's not happening. The Rays really aren't in a position to devote 25 to 33 percent of their payroll to one player -- no team should do this, because of the risk involved -- and Price has set himself up for a monster, Sabathia-like contract sometime in the next couple of years. Price knows it's a business.
11. The Rangers signed Jason Frasor.
To repeat: The top 10 rankings are mine; the commentary is from folks who work within the sport, from GMs to assistant GMs to scouts.
The ranking of one American League team, in particular, drew a lot of scrutiny, and my team at the top was also questioned.
1. San Francisco Giants
Longtime evaluator: "To me, the Giants are the best example of what a crapshoot the postseason is. I don't think they're a great team, but they've played well in a couple of Octobers; they were lucky. I don't think they're the best team."
NL evaluator: "They won World Series, but just about everything went right; I'm not sure if that will happen again."
2. Washington Nationals
NL evaluator: "A really good rotation, but there are some questions about bullpen and their left-handed power."
3. Detroit Tigers
NL evaluator: "A really good team gets better with full seasons from Anibal Sanchez and Victor Martinez, plus the addition of Torii Hunter."
4. Cincinnati Reds
NL evaluator: "I consider them at No. 1; they have it all with Shin-Soo Choo, a brilliant addition."
AL evaluator: "I don't necessarily drink the Reds Kool-Aid. They are losing the Astros from their schedule." He notes that although the Reds won 97 games, there were seven teams with a better run differential than the Reds last year.
5. Oakland Athletics
NL evaluator: "I could be wrong, but I think the A's will regress this year. They haven't done much in the offseason and I think that other clubs will be more ready for them in 2013. It's tough facing young pitchers with little track record, and that was more or less their entire rotation in the second half of the season. They should get all the credit in the world for what they did, but I just don't expect that level of success this year again."
Longtime AL evaluator: "I don't see Oakland that high. Anaheim and Texas will be ahead of them and both should be in the top 10. For me, Oakland doesn't have a No. 1 starter or a true middle-of-the-order bat. I'd have Detroit at No. 1."
AL official: "The one that stands out are the A's. I don't love the Rangers and Angels, but I like them as much as Oakland -- and having to play 38 games against those two teams is going to be a major factor for Oakland. A lot went right for the A's in 2012 -- to their credit of course, but [it's difficult to] expect that to continue on that level. The Rangers were considered the best team in the AL last year and they return a lot of the same [players], and the Angels are better as well.
"I just think we are discounting how good the Rangers and Angels are. That is going to hurt the A's."
6. Los Angeles Dodgers
NL evaluator: "A tremendous rotation and outfield (if their health keeps), Adrian Gonzalez, Hanley Ramirez, a good bullpen -- and tons of money."
7. St. Louis Cardinals
NL scout: "I'm not sure what they can expect to get out of [Chris] Carpenter, and they are going to miss Kyle Lohse a lot."
8. Toronto Blue Jays
NL evaluator: "I have questions about the league transition for R.A. Dickey, Mark Buehrle (at this stage in his career) and Josh Johnson, but it's a deep team, and much improved."
9. Atlanta Braves
NL evaluator: "This is a deep team, and look for a big walk year from Brian McCann."
10. New York Yankees
NL evaluator: "They still have Derek Jeter, Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera. Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson will be in their walk years, so they'll figure it out."
NL official: "It is pretty amazing to see the Yankees at No. 10 and no Boston, Angels, Philadelphia or Texas. Obviously, many teams outside the top 10 could conceivably win the World Series."
Best of the rest
Some of the evaluators believe the Rangers and Angels should be in the top 10. The NL evaluator on the Rangers: "They still have really good pitching, and they're really only one left-handed bat short of a potent offense."
Wrote a longtime NL evaluator: "I personally struggled with [you] excluding Texas, the Angels and Arizona from the top 10. Texas still has a very deep pitching and the addition of Joakim Soria should at some point make a very good bullpen even better. Both Mike Olt and Jurickson Profar could really impact that lineup.
"The Angels' offense is explosive 1 through 8 in their lineup, and their bullpen has gotten better, on paper, from a year ago; both starters they lost didn't really perform well at all and they still won 86 games. To me, Arizona is an overlooked club assuming they don't trade [Justin] Upton. With the addition of Brandon McCarthy for the innings and Heath Bell in a true setup role, this is a very dangerous team with the young starters they have coming. In fact the NL West will have three of the better teams in the league this year."
We'll close the series of top 10 rankings Saturday, with a listing of the top 10 bullpens.
• After the initial power rankings column was posted, with the Giants at No. 1, I got a lot of feedback from readers wondering why I had San Francisco at No. 1, rather than Washington or Detroit or the Dodgers or Reds. Some readers felt that given the questions about Tim Lincecum and other parts of the team, San Francisco doesn't appear to be as good on paper as some other teams.
In my opinion: After winning two titles in the past three years, they've earned the credit we should give them -- and it's evident that the Giants have become very adept at playing in close games, from the depth of their bullpen to the ability of manager Bruce Bochy to maneuver. They may not be as dynamic as the 1976 Reds or the 1927 Yankees, but they've been the best team in the National League playing in close games, and this cannot be dismissed as just luck; it's a trait.
Justin Havens of ESPN Stats & Information dug out these numbers:
In one-run postseason games over the past three years, the Giants are 8-1, which is in keeping with their regular-season success in close games. The Giants are 91-66 in one-run games over the past three regular seasons, which is the second-best mark by win percentage over that span (to Baltimore). It is first, however, in total wins.
Most Wins in One-Run Games (2010-12)
Giants 91
Reds 87
Twins 84
Phillies 82
Orioles 80
In total, the Giants have a .580 win percentage in one-run games over the past three seasons, while the other 29 teams cumulatively have a .497 win percentage.
Upton drama
At the time the Arizona Diamondbacks signed Cody Ross, the addition created an outfield surplus for Arizona and there was a sense among some rival evaluators that Jason Kubel was the most likely guy to be traded. But Arizona has made it clear to other teams that Justin Upton is available for the right offer, and the Diamondbacks' demands have become more open-ended, sources say.
At the start of the offseason, they had insisted on a shortstop in return for a deal, but now that they have Didi Gregorius as their long-term solution at that position -- he's the shortstop they landed in the Trevor Bauer deal with Cleveland and Cincinnati -- they're more in the mindset of looking for the best possible value for Upton. The Diamondbacks view Seattle as a possible partner for Upton, although the Mariners are on Upton's list of teams to which he could veto a trade (at a time when a lot of veterans have preferred to not play in Seattle).
It may turn out that Arizona's best Upton deal could come from the Rangers, who earlier in the offseason refused to part with either Jurickson Profar or Elvis Andrus for Upton. Other teams say the Rangers are willing to trade Derek Holland in the right deal.
Upton has been dangled on the market for two straight offseasons now, and it may be best for both sides now if Arizona just makes its best deal and moves on. If that doesn't happen, Upton's relationship with the organization is going to be the dominant story of the Diamondbacks' spring training, which wouldn't be good for the player or the team.
Free agents waiting
Kyle Lohse and Lance Berkman are still looking for fits in the market, writes Derrick Goold. From Derrick's story:
"It's not exactly the situation I envisioned, not at all," Lohse said in a telephone interview Thursday. "It hasn't been exactly a free market because I'm tied to a draft pick and other guys in my class aren't. That comes at a price. You can't compare this to anything in the past because it hasn't been like this."
Free of the draft-pick snag because Washington didn't give him a qualifying offer, Edwin Jackson finalized a four-year, $52-million deal with the Cubs on Wednesday. Other free-agent pitchers like Zack Greinke and Anibal Sanchez, both of whom have signed, were not eligible for qualifying offers because they were traded during the season.
Lohse doesn't doubt a fair contract will arrive, it just may take an inventive solution to make a fit and the compensation rule already has limited his suitors.
Lohse did an extensive radio interview on KNFS in St. Louis to talk about his situation, and you can listen to that here.
One way that free agents such as Lohse, Rafael Soriano and Michael Bourn could theoretically veer around the whole draft-pick compensation system would be to sign a non-roster, minor league deal. But a move like that would draw enormous scrutiny from MLB, which would strongly frown upon any effort to paint outside the lines of the newly negotiated labor deal.
Speaking of free agents, Nick Swisher was introduced in Cleveland and he was all smiles, as Paul Hoynes writes. His dad is happy that he's with the Indians, writes Terry Pluto. The Indians tugged at Swisher's Ohio State history, writes Marla Ridenour.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. Buck Showalter is close to an agreement on a contract extension, writes Roch Kubatko.
2. The Blue Jays have hired Tim Raines.
3. A date has not been set for Alex Rodriguez's surgery.
4. The Mets signed an infielder.
5. With Johan Santana on the way out, the Mets are hoping he can enhance his trade value.
6. The Red Sox will be scouting Javier Vazquez today, writes Rob Bradford.
7. The Reds would like to work out long-term deals with Homer Bailey and Mat Latos.
8. You can imagine Garrison Keillor nodding his head at this news: The good folks of Minnesota are on track to pay off Target Field early.
9. The Brewers signed an outfielder.
10. All sides politely addressed the question of a long-term deal for David Price. The bottom line: It's not happening. The Rays really aren't in a position to devote 25 to 33 percent of their payroll to one player -- no team should do this, because of the risk involved -- and Price has set himself up for a monster, Sabathia-like contract sometime in the next couple of years. Price knows it's a business.
11. The Rangers signed Jason Frasor.
Angels haven't really improved.
When the Los Angeles Angels became The Mystery Team and signed Josh Hamilton last month, the idea of their new batting order became the thing of legend. Hamilton could slide in behind Albert Pujols, who was already hitting behind Mike Trout, and even guys such as Mark Trumbo, Howie Kendrick and Erick Aybar, are better-than-average hitters for their positions.
The Angels' lineup is going to be very good, and people have even begun to whisper about the team potentially scoring 1,000 runs, a feat that hasn't been accomplished since the Cleveland Indians did it back in 1999. But here's the dirty little secret about the Angels' offense: The 2013 version may very well be worse than the 2012 version.
How does a team add Josh Hamilton and get worse offensively? Well, it's not as far fetched as it might sound on the surface. There are essentially three big factors that could cause the Angels to score fewer runs than they did last year.
1. Hamilton is not going to be a big upgrade over what Torii Hunter did in 2012.
If you just focus on home runs -- Hamilton hit 43, Hunter hit 16 -- this might seem ridiculous. But there's more to life than home runs, and what Hunter lacked in power, he made up for in singles. Despite having 52 fewer plate appearances, Hunter out-singled Hamilton 126 to 84, and while singles might not be as flashy as home runs, they are useful run-scoring tools in their own right. Because of all those base hits, Hunter posted a higher OBP than Hamilton -- .365 to .354 -- and he did it while playing half his games in Anaheim, not Texas.
This is one of the scenarios in which park factors actually are a really big deal. During his time with the Rangers, Hamilton had a .965 OPS at home and just a .867 on the road. The Ballpark in Arlington is one of the very best places in all of baseball to hit, especially in the summer when the temperature and the humidity rise. While we can't just expect Hamilton to turn into what he has been on the road now that he's leaving the friendly confines of Texas, his overall offensive numbers will come down. That's why we look at park adjusted numbers such as wRC+, which account for different offensive environments and put everyone on a level playing field.
Last year, Hunter posted a 130 wRC+, meaning that he hit 30 percent better than a league average hitter would be expected to while playing half his games in Anaheim. Josh Hamilton's career wRC+ is 135. Last year, he posted a 140 wRC+, but he's also getting older and age-related decline could easily push Hamilton's overall performance down to a similar level to what Hunter produced for the Angels last year.
2. The 2012 Angels were remarkably healthy and a little lucky.
The Angels didn't have to deal with too many injuries last year, and the ones that did arise generally came on the mound. Among the regular position players, only Chris Iannetta and Erick Aybar hit the DL in 2012, and Aybar was disabled only from July 22 to Aug. 8. Torii Hunter spent two weeks away from the team dealing with a personal issue, but even counting that, the rest of the hitters stayed active the entire season. The Angels had eight players garner at least 500 plate appearances last year, which is something that simply isn't likely to be repeated again in 2013.
They also had some good fortune when it comes to how often their balls in play went for base hits. They led the AL with a .311 team BABIP, nearly 20 points higher than the league average last year. Some of that is due to having a lineup of speedy players, but even adjusting for the team's speed, the Angels can't count on getting the same amount of hits in 2012 as they did in 2013. The main regression candidate -- now that Hunter has been replaced, at least -- is Mike Trout, who posted a .383 BABIP last season. Even with Trout's speed and skill, that number is unlikely to be sustained.
Over the past three years, 46 AL hitters have received 1,500 or more plate appearances; 45 of them have posted a BABIP below .350, with Austin Jackson (.370) as the lone exception. Even if you look at elite speed guys, you see they can't sustain BABIPs much more than .350 for any length of time. Ichiro, for his career, has a .347 BABIP. Michael Bourn is at .343. Carl Crawford is at .328. Trout's BABIP is going to come down. The only question is how far.
3. They're also replacing Kendrys Morales with Peter Bourjos.
I like Bourjos more than most, and I think he's a much better hitter than he showed in limited duty in 2012. But, no matter how bullish you might be on his overall value, there's no question that replacing Morales' bat with Bourjos' is a massive downgrade. Morales posted a 118 wRC+ last year, while Bourjos' career mark is just 95, making him a slightly-below-average hitter during his time in the big leagues. Given his high strikeout rate and low power output, being an average hitter is probably his ceiling, as the Angels are essentially hoping he can turn into the West Coast version of Michael Bourn, making up for the decent bat with elite defense in the outfield.
Swapping out Morales for Bourjos is probably a bigger offensive downgrade than swapping Hunter for Hamilton is an upgrade. While most of the focus is understandably on the addition of Hamilton, we must remember that the Angels made room for Hamilton by jettisoning Morales. When projecting their offense in 2013, we can't simply pretend that they're going to have all their good hitters back and simply added another great hitter to the mix. That's not a reflection of what has actually happened this winter.
When you add up all the expected gains -- likely some improvement from Albert Pujols, perhaps better health from Chris Iannetta, the addition of Josh Hamilton -- there are enough positives to expect the Angels to still a have a very good offense in 2013, even with the issues listed above. But they had a very good offense last year -- their team wRC+ of 112 was second best in baseball -- and improving significantly on that performance is going to be a tall order. Adding Hamilton should allow them to remain one of the best offensive clubs in baseball, but don't get too carried away with what putting him in right field will do to their offense. If the Angels match their offensive performance from 2012, they'll be doing well. Expecting them to take a huge step forward is probably unrealistic.
The Angels' lineup is going to be very good, and people have even begun to whisper about the team potentially scoring 1,000 runs, a feat that hasn't been accomplished since the Cleveland Indians did it back in 1999. But here's the dirty little secret about the Angels' offense: The 2013 version may very well be worse than the 2012 version.
How does a team add Josh Hamilton and get worse offensively? Well, it's not as far fetched as it might sound on the surface. There are essentially three big factors that could cause the Angels to score fewer runs than they did last year.
1. Hamilton is not going to be a big upgrade over what Torii Hunter did in 2012.
If you just focus on home runs -- Hamilton hit 43, Hunter hit 16 -- this might seem ridiculous. But there's more to life than home runs, and what Hunter lacked in power, he made up for in singles. Despite having 52 fewer plate appearances, Hunter out-singled Hamilton 126 to 84, and while singles might not be as flashy as home runs, they are useful run-scoring tools in their own right. Because of all those base hits, Hunter posted a higher OBP than Hamilton -- .365 to .354 -- and he did it while playing half his games in Anaheim, not Texas.
This is one of the scenarios in which park factors actually are a really big deal. During his time with the Rangers, Hamilton had a .965 OPS at home and just a .867 on the road. The Ballpark in Arlington is one of the very best places in all of baseball to hit, especially in the summer when the temperature and the humidity rise. While we can't just expect Hamilton to turn into what he has been on the road now that he's leaving the friendly confines of Texas, his overall offensive numbers will come down. That's why we look at park adjusted numbers such as wRC+, which account for different offensive environments and put everyone on a level playing field.
Last year, Hunter posted a 130 wRC+, meaning that he hit 30 percent better than a league average hitter would be expected to while playing half his games in Anaheim. Josh Hamilton's career wRC+ is 135. Last year, he posted a 140 wRC+, but he's also getting older and age-related decline could easily push Hamilton's overall performance down to a similar level to what Hunter produced for the Angels last year.
2. The 2012 Angels were remarkably healthy and a little lucky.
The Angels didn't have to deal with too many injuries last year, and the ones that did arise generally came on the mound. Among the regular position players, only Chris Iannetta and Erick Aybar hit the DL in 2012, and Aybar was disabled only from July 22 to Aug. 8. Torii Hunter spent two weeks away from the team dealing with a personal issue, but even counting that, the rest of the hitters stayed active the entire season. The Angels had eight players garner at least 500 plate appearances last year, which is something that simply isn't likely to be repeated again in 2013.
They also had some good fortune when it comes to how often their balls in play went for base hits. They led the AL with a .311 team BABIP, nearly 20 points higher than the league average last year. Some of that is due to having a lineup of speedy players, but even adjusting for the team's speed, the Angels can't count on getting the same amount of hits in 2012 as they did in 2013. The main regression candidate -- now that Hunter has been replaced, at least -- is Mike Trout, who posted a .383 BABIP last season. Even with Trout's speed and skill, that number is unlikely to be sustained.
Over the past three years, 46 AL hitters have received 1,500 or more plate appearances; 45 of them have posted a BABIP below .350, with Austin Jackson (.370) as the lone exception. Even if you look at elite speed guys, you see they can't sustain BABIPs much more than .350 for any length of time. Ichiro, for his career, has a .347 BABIP. Michael Bourn is at .343. Carl Crawford is at .328. Trout's BABIP is going to come down. The only question is how far.
3. They're also replacing Kendrys Morales with Peter Bourjos.
I like Bourjos more than most, and I think he's a much better hitter than he showed in limited duty in 2012. But, no matter how bullish you might be on his overall value, there's no question that replacing Morales' bat with Bourjos' is a massive downgrade. Morales posted a 118 wRC+ last year, while Bourjos' career mark is just 95, making him a slightly-below-average hitter during his time in the big leagues. Given his high strikeout rate and low power output, being an average hitter is probably his ceiling, as the Angels are essentially hoping he can turn into the West Coast version of Michael Bourn, making up for the decent bat with elite defense in the outfield.
Swapping out Morales for Bourjos is probably a bigger offensive downgrade than swapping Hunter for Hamilton is an upgrade. While most of the focus is understandably on the addition of Hamilton, we must remember that the Angels made room for Hamilton by jettisoning Morales. When projecting their offense in 2013, we can't simply pretend that they're going to have all their good hitters back and simply added another great hitter to the mix. That's not a reflection of what has actually happened this winter.
When you add up all the expected gains -- likely some improvement from Albert Pujols, perhaps better health from Chris Iannetta, the addition of Josh Hamilton -- there are enough positives to expect the Angels to still a have a very good offense in 2013, even with the issues listed above. But they had a very good offense last year -- their team wRC+ of 112 was second best in baseball -- and improving significantly on that performance is going to be a tall order. Adding Hamilton should allow them to remain one of the best offensive clubs in baseball, but don't get too carried away with what putting him in right field will do to their offense. If the Angels match their offensive performance from 2012, they'll be doing well. Expecting them to take a huge step forward is probably unrealistic.
Players whose jobs are in jeopardy.
We haven’t even gotten to spring training and there are already players whose jobs are in jeopardy either because of their team's trades, free-agent signings or young prospects who are getting ready to burst on to the scene. Here are six players who could lose their jobs between now and Opening Day.
Michael Morse, 1B/LF | Washington Nationals
His first opportunity to be an every-day player at the major league level came in 2011, and he responded by hitting .303/.360/.550 with 31 homers. Despite injuries in 2012, the 30-year-old proved that it was not fluke by belting out 18 bombs in 102 games while batting .291.
However, the Nationals needed a plus defensive center fielder, so when they had the opportunity to trade for Denard Span, they did, thus forcing them to move Bryce Harper to left field and Morse to first. However, the Nats are still trying to sign free-agent first baseman Adam LaRoche, and if he finally agrees to take their two-year offer then Morse will be completely out of a starting job.
When that happens, AL clubs will be lining up to trade for Morse. It doesn’t seem fair for this to happen to a player with as much class and character as Morse, but it’s part of the game.
Jason Kubel, LF | Arizona Diamondbacks
Kubel, 30, signed a two-year, $16 million deal with the Diamondbacks last winter and produced just as GM Kevin Towers had hoped, with 30 homers and doubles along with adequate defense in left field. But when the D-backs signed Cody Ross to a three-year deal worth $26 million, it became obvious that either Justin Upton or Kubel will eventually get traded.
There are some who will argue that the D-backs could open with an outfield of Kubel in left, Ross in center and Upton in right, and they could be right, but eventually Ross will end up in a corner where he best fits and Adam Eaton will the center fielder. And although Arizona keeps listening to offers on Justin Upton, it’s questionable if it’ll get offered a package worth enough for Arizona to ship out a 25-year old who’s already hit 30 home runs and finished fourth in MVP voting.
Therefore, it’s Kubel who could end up losing his job in Arizona and being traded to a team like the Baltimore Orioles, Chicago White Sox, New York Yankees or Seattle Mariners, who could all use the 30 home run power from the left side that Kubel can supply.
Andy Dirks, OF | Detroit Tigers
Manager Jim Leyland told me this week that Dirks is his every-day left fielder and that he earned the spot last year. The 26-year-old ended up hitting .322/.370/.487 in 88 games last year, and against right-handed pitching he hit an impressive .336.
Although he’s projected to be the Tigers' opening day left fielder, he’ll have to be watching over his shoulder in spring training for Avisail Garcia and Nick Castellanos, the Tigers' two top position player prospects. The Tigers' front office is split on who is the better prospect between the two, with some liking Garcia and his five tools while others point to Castellanos' special hit tool as the separator. Either way, they both possess an upside that Dirks lacks, and he could lose his job before he really makes it his.
Jonny Gomes, LF | Boston Red Sox
He's coming off of an impressive offensive year with the A’s when he hit .262/.377/.491, and his high energy, enthusiasm and leadership will work well in the Boston clubhouse.
The question will come down to the same thing it always has for Gomes in Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, Washington and Oakland, and that’s how his defense plays. Left field in Boston is particularly tricky because of the Green Monster, and the Red Sox won't hesitate to play Daniel Nava or Ryan Kalish there if Gomes' defense suffers.
The good news for Gomes is that he's a pull hitter, so Fenway suits him well, and he should get reps whenever a lefty starts.
Coco Crisp, CF | Oakland Athletics
He signed a two-year, $14 million deal prior to last season, and eventually won the every-day center-field job when Yoenis Cespedes was moved to left field. After a slow start, Crisp hit .259/.325/.418 with 39 steals in helping the A’s win 94 games and the American League West title.
However, an offseason deal with the Diamondbacks that netted Chris Young could mean that Crisp could be moved to a reserve role. Young, 29, was injured most of 2012 but has hit 20 or more home runs four different times in his career and is considered a better defensive outfielder than Crisp. GM Billy Beane keeps saying there will be enough playing time for all four outfielders, but it’s hard to imagine that Josh Reddick and Cespedes won’t be starting most games on the corner and Bob Melvin won’t prefer to start the better defender in Young in center. That would leave Crisp to the DH role, something he’s not exactly enthused about and doesn't play to his strength. A trade is likely.
Luis Cruz, 3B | Los Angeles Dodgers
Cruz, 28, finally got his first real opportunity at the major league level playing in 78 games at third base and contributing with solid defense and a slash line of .297/.322/.431 with six homers in 296 plate appearances. Hanley Ramirez prefers to play shortstop, but the Dodgers are concerned about his defense so much that they have him working on his positioning and angles in winter ball.
NL teams have studied Cruz and will have a better idea how to pitch to him this year, and if Ramirez doesn’t improve his defense a switch back to third base is a real possibility. That would allow the Dodgers to give the inconsistent but flashy Dee Gordon another chance to play shortstop and would give their defense an upgrade. With a new potent lineup, Gordon could hit seventh or eighth and his speed and range will more than make up for his lack of offense. Keep an eye on how Ramirez handles shortstop in spring training, as that will be the key.
Michael Morse, 1B/LF | Washington Nationals
His first opportunity to be an every-day player at the major league level came in 2011, and he responded by hitting .303/.360/.550 with 31 homers. Despite injuries in 2012, the 30-year-old proved that it was not fluke by belting out 18 bombs in 102 games while batting .291.
However, the Nationals needed a plus defensive center fielder, so when they had the opportunity to trade for Denard Span, they did, thus forcing them to move Bryce Harper to left field and Morse to first. However, the Nats are still trying to sign free-agent first baseman Adam LaRoche, and if he finally agrees to take their two-year offer then Morse will be completely out of a starting job.
When that happens, AL clubs will be lining up to trade for Morse. It doesn’t seem fair for this to happen to a player with as much class and character as Morse, but it’s part of the game.
Jason Kubel, LF | Arizona Diamondbacks
Kubel, 30, signed a two-year, $16 million deal with the Diamondbacks last winter and produced just as GM Kevin Towers had hoped, with 30 homers and doubles along with adequate defense in left field. But when the D-backs signed Cody Ross to a three-year deal worth $26 million, it became obvious that either Justin Upton or Kubel will eventually get traded.
There are some who will argue that the D-backs could open with an outfield of Kubel in left, Ross in center and Upton in right, and they could be right, but eventually Ross will end up in a corner where he best fits and Adam Eaton will the center fielder. And although Arizona keeps listening to offers on Justin Upton, it’s questionable if it’ll get offered a package worth enough for Arizona to ship out a 25-year old who’s already hit 30 home runs and finished fourth in MVP voting.
Therefore, it’s Kubel who could end up losing his job in Arizona and being traded to a team like the Baltimore Orioles, Chicago White Sox, New York Yankees or Seattle Mariners, who could all use the 30 home run power from the left side that Kubel can supply.
Andy Dirks, OF | Detroit Tigers
Manager Jim Leyland told me this week that Dirks is his every-day left fielder and that he earned the spot last year. The 26-year-old ended up hitting .322/.370/.487 in 88 games last year, and against right-handed pitching he hit an impressive .336.
Although he’s projected to be the Tigers' opening day left fielder, he’ll have to be watching over his shoulder in spring training for Avisail Garcia and Nick Castellanos, the Tigers' two top position player prospects. The Tigers' front office is split on who is the better prospect between the two, with some liking Garcia and his five tools while others point to Castellanos' special hit tool as the separator. Either way, they both possess an upside that Dirks lacks, and he could lose his job before he really makes it his.
Jonny Gomes, LF | Boston Red Sox
He's coming off of an impressive offensive year with the A’s when he hit .262/.377/.491, and his high energy, enthusiasm and leadership will work well in the Boston clubhouse.
The question will come down to the same thing it always has for Gomes in Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, Washington and Oakland, and that’s how his defense plays. Left field in Boston is particularly tricky because of the Green Monster, and the Red Sox won't hesitate to play Daniel Nava or Ryan Kalish there if Gomes' defense suffers.
The good news for Gomes is that he's a pull hitter, so Fenway suits him well, and he should get reps whenever a lefty starts.
Coco Crisp, CF | Oakland Athletics
He signed a two-year, $14 million deal prior to last season, and eventually won the every-day center-field job when Yoenis Cespedes was moved to left field. After a slow start, Crisp hit .259/.325/.418 with 39 steals in helping the A’s win 94 games and the American League West title.
However, an offseason deal with the Diamondbacks that netted Chris Young could mean that Crisp could be moved to a reserve role. Young, 29, was injured most of 2012 but has hit 20 or more home runs four different times in his career and is considered a better defensive outfielder than Crisp. GM Billy Beane keeps saying there will be enough playing time for all four outfielders, but it’s hard to imagine that Josh Reddick and Cespedes won’t be starting most games on the corner and Bob Melvin won’t prefer to start the better defender in Young in center. That would leave Crisp to the DH role, something he’s not exactly enthused about and doesn't play to his strength. A trade is likely.
Luis Cruz, 3B | Los Angeles Dodgers
Cruz, 28, finally got his first real opportunity at the major league level playing in 78 games at third base and contributing with solid defense and a slash line of .297/.322/.431 with six homers in 296 plate appearances. Hanley Ramirez prefers to play shortstop, but the Dodgers are concerned about his defense so much that they have him working on his positioning and angles in winter ball.
NL teams have studied Cruz and will have a better idea how to pitch to him this year, and if Ramirez doesn’t improve his defense a switch back to third base is a real possibility. That would allow the Dodgers to give the inconsistent but flashy Dee Gordon another chance to play shortstop and would give their defense an upgrade. With a new potent lineup, Gordon could hit seventh or eighth and his speed and range will more than make up for his lack of offense. Keep an eye on how Ramirez handles shortstop in spring training, as that will be the key.
Curt Schilling is a Hall of Famer.
In the past 15 years, a starting pitcher being elected into the Hall of Fame has become an increasingly rare sight. With the steroid cloud hanging over Roger Clemens, the pitcher most likely to be inducted into the Hall of Fame this summer appears to be Jack Morris.
The candidacy of Morris, who has dangled on the precipice of induction in recent years, comes with a strong case: durable pitcher for a long time, ace of his pitching staff, good win-loss record, postseason legend, thought highly of by contemporaries. Only problem is, that's not actually the case for Jack Morris, but for another prominent pitcher on this year's ballot, Curt Schilling.
Running down the Jack Morris case, Curt Schilling's better at being the mythical Jack Morris than the actual Jack Morris ever was. And if any non-Clemens pitcher should get in this year, it's Schilling. Check out this point-by-point breakdown.
Jack Morris, staff ace
Yes, Jack Morris started a lot of Opening Day games (14) over the course of his career. During his run with the Tigers, there just wasn't a whole lot of star power in the rotation, so it's unsurprising that Morris would receive a lot of the Opening Day starts. Pitchers like Dan Petry, Walt Terrell, and a Frank Tanana in the junkballing stage of his career all had their moments, but Morris was generally the most dependable member of the rotation.
But it sounds more impressive than it is. Think about the aces in baseball right now and most people will come up with a similar list of names, including some combination of Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Felix Hernandez and so on. I'd be willing to bet that almost nobody, when narrowing down the best pitchers in baseball to name the best, considers -- or even knows -- how many Opening Day starts each of the best pitchers in baseball have made. Because it's a crazy method of evaluation that's rarely been used, outside of making Morris look like a credible Hall of Fame candidate.
A better definition of an ace pitcher, a non-controversial one widely used whether you're a stathead or have old-school tendencies, is a durable starting pitcher who keeps the other team from scoring. After all, that's the primary contribution of a pitcher to teams winning baseball games.
Here, Morris fares poorly and Schilling fares extremely well. In the parks and leagues Morris played in over his career, a 4.10 ERA would have been a league-average pitcher. Morris' 3.90 ERA leaves him with an ERA+ of 105. That's a good pitcher, but not a great one. Schilling, on the other hand, had a 3.46 ERA in an era with more offense, when a 4.39 ERA was league average, resulting in an ERA+ of 127. The 563 extra innings Morris threw don't make up the difference, as Schilling would have to throw 563 innings of an 8.36 ERA to come down to Morris' career ERA+. Would anyone suggest pitching like that would enhance his ace status?
Jack Morris, proven winner
As the argument goes, Jack Morris was able to pitch to the score, enabling him to win more games for the Tigers than you would expect from his ERA.
When the record is actually looked at, there's no such evidence that Morris successfully pitched to the score. While he may have attempted to do so, the facts tell a different story. Based on the offenses of his teams and his runs allowed, you would expect to see 251 wins. Instead, he won 254, an extra win that came around less often than presidential elections. In tie games during his career, Morris allowed a .692 OPS, compared to his .693 OPS allowed overall. Morris did win more games than you would expect from his ERA in itself, but that was as a result of the offense. If you want to reward the Tigers' offense, it would make more sense to honor Alan Trammell and Lou Whitaker, two players who should've been in the Hall a long time ago.
At 254-186, Morris' .577 career winning percentage ranks 192nd all time. Schilling had fewer wins (216), but also fewer losses (146) and would have go a little below .500 for roughly two more seasons (38-40) to catch Morris in wins and losses.
Jack Morris, postseason legend
Morris, without a doubt, threw one of the most thrilling postseason games of my lifetime, his legendary Game 7 duel against John Smoltz in the 1991 World Series. The problem for Morris' postseason résumé is that taken as a whole, the rest of his playoff performances were considerably less impressive. In 13 career playoff starts, Morris' 3.80 ERA in 92⅓ innings isn't the stuff of legend. He allowed more than two runs in about half his playoff starts (six) and while he should get credit for that Game 7, you can't ignore the other 82⅓ innings of a 4.26 ERA.
Schilling's record, on the other hand, is one of the best in baseball history. An 11-2, 2.23 line in 19 starts is nearly unmatched in postseason history -- only Mariano Rivera has a higher WPA (win probability added) among pitchers. Schilling allowed two or fewer runs in 15 of 18 playoff starts and, as narrative goes, the Bloody Sock game is a ripping good yarn in its own right.
Jack Morris "felt" like a great
One of the common arguments made for Jack Morris is that everybody at the time knew they were looking at a great pitcher, and 25 years later we can't properly understand Morris' contributions. Accepting for the sake of argument that we should look at memories of actual performance over, well, actual performance, there are plenty of objective ways to see what contemporaries thought. Every offseason, the writers at the time, those who supposedly saw his greatness, had the opportunity to vote for the best pitchers that they saw in the previous year. And those writers who allegedly knew him best, generally ranked other pitchers above Morris.
Over his career, tallying up Cy Young votes, Morris accumulated .73 award shares, ranking 76th in the Cy Young era and putting him just ahead of Dontrelle Willis (.70) and Mike Hampton (.6 and well behind contemporaries who never won a Cy Young, such as Dave Stewart (1.22, 43rd) and Jimmy Key (1.25, 41st). Morris never finished higher than third in the Cy Young vote (he did it twice), and while he started three All-Star Games, a total of five All-Star appearances is a weak number for a player whose Hall of Fame case relies on reputation.
Schilling made only six All-Star appearances, but when the contemporaries who saw Schilling pitch were asked to name the greatest pitchers every October, Schilling's name came up a lot more often. He never won the Cy Young award outright, but finished second on three occasions and his 1.85 award shares rank him 18th overall.
The freak stat
In the end, practically every argument for Jack Morris will mention that he had the most pitching wins in a conveniently named decade (the 1980s). This sounds sexier than it actually is, and while it's a testament to his durability, it's also a testament to the coincidence that the best part of Morris' career conveniently fit between a year ending in zero and a year ending in nine. Once you actually look at winningest pitchers over decades that aren't tidily described, pitchers like Paul Derringer and Bucky Walters start to trickle in, making the stat less exciting.
Schilling's freak stat doesn't need any parlor tricks. Since walks became the statistic we know today in 1889, Schilling has the best strikeout-to-walk ratio ever. No contrived qualifications needed. Ever.
Jack Morris played a role in baseball history, but it was a supporting one. Induction into the Hall should represent true greatness. If 2013 ends and Curt Schilling didn't give a speech in a certain small town in upstate New York, it will have been the voting that fell short, not his qualifications.
The candidacy of Morris, who has dangled on the precipice of induction in recent years, comes with a strong case: durable pitcher for a long time, ace of his pitching staff, good win-loss record, postseason legend, thought highly of by contemporaries. Only problem is, that's not actually the case for Jack Morris, but for another prominent pitcher on this year's ballot, Curt Schilling.
Running down the Jack Morris case, Curt Schilling's better at being the mythical Jack Morris than the actual Jack Morris ever was. And if any non-Clemens pitcher should get in this year, it's Schilling. Check out this point-by-point breakdown.
Jack Morris, staff ace
Yes, Jack Morris started a lot of Opening Day games (14) over the course of his career. During his run with the Tigers, there just wasn't a whole lot of star power in the rotation, so it's unsurprising that Morris would receive a lot of the Opening Day starts. Pitchers like Dan Petry, Walt Terrell, and a Frank Tanana in the junkballing stage of his career all had their moments, but Morris was generally the most dependable member of the rotation.
But it sounds more impressive than it is. Think about the aces in baseball right now and most people will come up with a similar list of names, including some combination of Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Felix Hernandez and so on. I'd be willing to bet that almost nobody, when narrowing down the best pitchers in baseball to name the best, considers -- or even knows -- how many Opening Day starts each of the best pitchers in baseball have made. Because it's a crazy method of evaluation that's rarely been used, outside of making Morris look like a credible Hall of Fame candidate.
A better definition of an ace pitcher, a non-controversial one widely used whether you're a stathead or have old-school tendencies, is a durable starting pitcher who keeps the other team from scoring. After all, that's the primary contribution of a pitcher to teams winning baseball games.
Here, Morris fares poorly and Schilling fares extremely well. In the parks and leagues Morris played in over his career, a 4.10 ERA would have been a league-average pitcher. Morris' 3.90 ERA leaves him with an ERA+ of 105. That's a good pitcher, but not a great one. Schilling, on the other hand, had a 3.46 ERA in an era with more offense, when a 4.39 ERA was league average, resulting in an ERA+ of 127. The 563 extra innings Morris threw don't make up the difference, as Schilling would have to throw 563 innings of an 8.36 ERA to come down to Morris' career ERA+. Would anyone suggest pitching like that would enhance his ace status?
Jack Morris, proven winner
As the argument goes, Jack Morris was able to pitch to the score, enabling him to win more games for the Tigers than you would expect from his ERA.
When the record is actually looked at, there's no such evidence that Morris successfully pitched to the score. While he may have attempted to do so, the facts tell a different story. Based on the offenses of his teams and his runs allowed, you would expect to see 251 wins. Instead, he won 254, an extra win that came around less often than presidential elections. In tie games during his career, Morris allowed a .692 OPS, compared to his .693 OPS allowed overall. Morris did win more games than you would expect from his ERA in itself, but that was as a result of the offense. If you want to reward the Tigers' offense, it would make more sense to honor Alan Trammell and Lou Whitaker, two players who should've been in the Hall a long time ago.
At 254-186, Morris' .577 career winning percentage ranks 192nd all time. Schilling had fewer wins (216), but also fewer losses (146) and would have go a little below .500 for roughly two more seasons (38-40) to catch Morris in wins and losses.
Jack Morris, postseason legend
Morris, without a doubt, threw one of the most thrilling postseason games of my lifetime, his legendary Game 7 duel against John Smoltz in the 1991 World Series. The problem for Morris' postseason résumé is that taken as a whole, the rest of his playoff performances were considerably less impressive. In 13 career playoff starts, Morris' 3.80 ERA in 92⅓ innings isn't the stuff of legend. He allowed more than two runs in about half his playoff starts (six) and while he should get credit for that Game 7, you can't ignore the other 82⅓ innings of a 4.26 ERA.
Schilling's record, on the other hand, is one of the best in baseball history. An 11-2, 2.23 line in 19 starts is nearly unmatched in postseason history -- only Mariano Rivera has a higher WPA (win probability added) among pitchers. Schilling allowed two or fewer runs in 15 of 18 playoff starts and, as narrative goes, the Bloody Sock game is a ripping good yarn in its own right.
Jack Morris "felt" like a great
One of the common arguments made for Jack Morris is that everybody at the time knew they were looking at a great pitcher, and 25 years later we can't properly understand Morris' contributions. Accepting for the sake of argument that we should look at memories of actual performance over, well, actual performance, there are plenty of objective ways to see what contemporaries thought. Every offseason, the writers at the time, those who supposedly saw his greatness, had the opportunity to vote for the best pitchers that they saw in the previous year. And those writers who allegedly knew him best, generally ranked other pitchers above Morris.
Over his career, tallying up Cy Young votes, Morris accumulated .73 award shares, ranking 76th in the Cy Young era and putting him just ahead of Dontrelle Willis (.70) and Mike Hampton (.6
and well behind contemporaries who never won a Cy Young, such as Dave Stewart (1.22, 43rd) and Jimmy Key (1.25, 41st). Morris never finished higher than third in the Cy Young vote (he did it twice), and while he started three All-Star Games, a total of five All-Star appearances is a weak number for a player whose Hall of Fame case relies on reputation.Schilling made only six All-Star appearances, but when the contemporaries who saw Schilling pitch were asked to name the greatest pitchers every October, Schilling's name came up a lot more often. He never won the Cy Young award outright, but finished second on three occasions and his 1.85 award shares rank him 18th overall.
The freak stat
In the end, practically every argument for Jack Morris will mention that he had the most pitching wins in a conveniently named decade (the 1980s). This sounds sexier than it actually is, and while it's a testament to his durability, it's also a testament to the coincidence that the best part of Morris' career conveniently fit between a year ending in zero and a year ending in nine. Once you actually look at winningest pitchers over decades that aren't tidily described, pitchers like Paul Derringer and Bucky Walters start to trickle in, making the stat less exciting.
Schilling's freak stat doesn't need any parlor tricks. Since walks became the statistic we know today in 1889, Schilling has the best strikeout-to-walk ratio ever. No contrived qualifications needed. Ever.
Jack Morris played a role in baseball history, but it was a supporting one. Induction into the Hall should represent true greatness. If 2013 ends and Curt Schilling didn't give a speech in a certain small town in upstate New York, it will have been the voting that fell short, not his qualifications.
mr marcus
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Can't wait for the season to start
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Me too.
jumpmanfromdabay
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lightweight champion
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Going for the dynasty label 
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Time to bring #10 home
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damn, we're really hurting.
dude publicly gives us the business and we give him 10 mil.
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Berkman is the biggest clown ever. Whatever he says, the opposite happens.
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Who cares what he said about Beltre? He was wrong then and after two HOF level seasons he looks like an even bigger clown... AJ is a clown too, but he's the best catcher we'll have run out in a few years too.
If he's healthy, he's a huge upgrade over anything we've run out regularly at DH since Vlad left...
If he's healthy, he's a huge upgrade over anything we've run out regularly at DH since Vlad left...
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****, I hate Berkman. Him and AJ on the Rangers just makes me dislike the team more.
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anybody going to the WBC?
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