Major League Baseball: End of Season Awards/Playoff Predictions Thread

[N41D]

AL MVP: Josh Hamilton
AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez
AL ROY: Neftali Feliz
AL MOY: Ron Gardenhire

NL MVP: Joey Votto
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay
NL ROY: Jaime Garcia
NL MOY: Bruce Bochy

ALDS: Rays over Rangers, Yankees over Twins
NLDS: Phillies over Reds, Giants over Braves
ALCS: Rays over Yankees
NLCS: Phillies over Giants

WS: Phillies over Rays

 

[proshares]

AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera. As great a season as Josh had, Miggy was better.
AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez. Seattle better watch his innings next year if they're this terrible again before he turns into a right handed Kazmir.
AL ROY: Austin Jackson. I can't give it to a reliever over an everyday player.
AL MOY: Ron Washington or Ron Gardenhire. Can't go wrong with either one.

NL MVP: Joey Votto. Tough not to give it to Pujols.
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay. Let's hope it doesn't carry over to the postseason.
NL ROY: Jason Heyward. Honestly, if it went to Garcia, Posey or Sanchez, I wouldn't have a problem with it.
NL MOY: Bud Black. This team was supposed to lose 90 games.

ALDS: Rays over Rangers, Yankees over Twins.
NLDS: Phillies over Reds, Giants over Braves.
ALCS: Yankees over Rays. Gotta see how Garza, Davis and Shields look in the playoffs before making an non-homer decision TBH.
NLCS: Phillies over Giants.

WS: Yankees over Phillies in 7.

 

[airmaxpenny1]

AL MVP: Miggy (Hamilton will win it though)
AL ROY: Neftali Feliz
AL CY Young: King Felix
AL MOY: Gardenhire

NL MVP: Votto
NL ROY: Garcia
NL CY Young: Halladay (Sucks to be Wainwright, just missing it two years in a row)
NY MOY: Bobby Cox

ALDS: Yankees over Twins in; Rays over Rangers in 5
NLDS Phillies over Reds in 4; Giants over Braves in 4
ALCS: Rays over Yanks in 6
NLCS: Phillies over Giants in 5
World Series: Rays over Phillies in 6

 

[N41D]

Originally Posted by Proshares

AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera. As great a season as Josh had, Miggy was better.

Was he? Other than the fact he played 17 more games? From about the second week of May up until he fractured his ribs, Josh was the best player in baseball and it really wasn't close...

 

[bruce waynee]

 

[proshares]

You're right. I'm taking into account all the manpower that offense lost too. After Magglio went down, there were no more solid, consistent bats in that lineup besides Jackson and he can't hit for power. He carried them and they were still up there with the Twins until their bullpen imploded. He got on base more, got more XBH's, better OBP (Josh had the better SLG and .002 OPS) and struck out less. I mean, you can't go wrong either way but I'd give it to Cabrera. As I typed, I decided to look at the WAR 8.0 to 6.2 for Hamilton.

Cabrera/Hamilton, Cano, Konerko, Mauer/Beltre FWIW.

 

[cincoseisdos]

NL ROY is Posey.

That is all.

 

[proshares]

Keith Law's blog on the awards:

Getty ImagesKing Felix and Joey Votto are both either No. 1 or No. 2 in their respective categories.

My ballot this year was for the NL Manager of the Year, which I filed a few days ago once it became clear that my choices weren't likely to change. Since I didn't have a ballot on any of the six player awards, I can talk freely about how I would have voted on each of them.
[h3]AL MVP[/h3]
1. Josh Hamilton
2. Evan Longoria
3. Jose Bautista
4. Miguel Cabrera
5. Robinson Cano
6. Felix Hernandez
7. Shin-Soo Choo
8. Adrian Beltre
9. Cliff Lee
10. Joe Mauer





Hamilton's season ended early, and that's the only reason there's any debate over who should win this award, but he was so productive in his 132 games that no one else could quite catch up to him even with more bulk playing time. I could see reasonable arguments for the next three names, although I can't say I've heard any real sentiment for Longoria, who is only the best player on the team with the best record in the AL, usually a recipe for an MVP candidacy. I thought Buster Olney made a good point about the various defensive numbers, including UZR, that go into WAR and any other stats that attempt to roll offense and defense together: Those defensive numbers are great because they help put scale on to something that previously went unmeasured, but their accuracy is not that of the comparable offensive statistics. I used Fangraphs' WAR figures when putting together these ballots, but with an eye on the components, not just the raw totals, so I could mentally adjust them (slightly) where appropriate.
[h3]NL MVP[/h3]
1. Joey Votto
2. Albert Pujols
3. Roy Halladay
4. Ryan Zimmerman
5. Adam Wainwright
6. Troy Tulowitzki
7. Matt Holliday
8. Carlos Gonzalez
9. Ubaldo Jimenez
10. Josh Johnson





Any of the top three guys could be No. 1 here -- Votto and Pujols are in a virtual statistical tie by fWAR and adjusted batting runs, once you back out the benefit Votto gets from his home park, and both are excellent defensive first basemen. Halladay's season has been relatively historic -- more on that in a moment -- and in a year where we didn't have a clear position player candidate, he'd have a chance to win, but I'm realistic about a pitcher's odds in the MVP voting. Carlos Gonzalez got a ton of press when he was hot in August and trying to force his way into the Triple Crown race, but once you take Coors Field into account -- and Gonzalez seems to get a disproportionate boost from playing at altitude; note the .380 home, .289 away averages -- his season just isn't on par with the guys above him.
[h3]AL Cy Young Award[/h3]
1. Felix Hernandez
2. Cliff Lee
3. Francisco Liriano
4. Justin Verlander
5. David Price





I've gone over Hernandez' case multiple times (most recently here) -- he has been outstanding by many measures while shouldering a Halladay-esque workload and dominating several of the league's best offenses -- but I think you could make reasonable cases for Lee and Liriano. Price might be the candidate who could best satisfy the pitcher-win crowd with a strong argument using advanced metrics, and he should get some boost for who he faces in the AL East. The next two names would be Jered Weaver, who led the American League in strikeouts but, as a severe flyball pitcher, gets a huge benefit from his home park, with a 4.14 road ERA this year that's right in line with his career line; and CC Sabathia, a favorite of win partisans who had to rapidly cobble together a "pitching under pressure" argument to defend a pitcher who had a fantastic year but just wasn't the best pitcher in the league by any rational measure. (And, by the way, pitching where giving up a single run might cost your team the game, as Hernandez did so often, is real pressure, too.) And Jon Lester had a pretty fantastic season in the relative obscurity of Boston ... wait, what?
[h3]NL Cy Young Award[/h3]
1. Roy Halladay
2. Adam Wainwright
3. Ubaldo Jimenez
4. Josh Johnson
5. Tim Lincecum





Halladay works in a hitters' park in the NL's toughest division and was still far and away the best pitcher in the league this year. He became the first starter since 1923 to throw 250 innings while walking 30 or fewer men, and since 2000 only Randy Johnson has gone that many innings with a lower ERA. The last starter in either league to go 250 innings in 33 or fewer starts was Charles Nagy in 1992. Halladay is a throwback, but also an extremely effective throwback, one who has remade himself more than once in his career already, and I won't be surprised if he does it in his late 30s. Johnson fell short when he was shut down in early September; Ubaldo's second half couldn't come close to his first (and I'm not talking about his win total); only Wainwright has a compelling case, very close to Doc in ERA and the various adjusted versions out there (like FIP and SIERA), but Doc's 20-inning advantage puts him over the top.
[h3]AL Rookie of the Year[/h3]
1. Brian Matusz
2. Danny Valencia
3. Austin Jackson





There just is no great candidate in the AL this year, but Matusz' year came while pitching in front of a bad defense in a division of four strong offenses, and his strong finish pumped up his values to the point where he's a reasonable choice. (As far as I can tell, he's the top AL rookie in Baseball-Reference's WAR, and I believe he's third in Fangraph's version, 0.1 behind Valencia, which in practical terms is no difference.) Jackson's argument is one strictly of bulk, as he played every day from Opening Day and led off enough to get over 670 PA, but what he did in those PA wasn'tso impressive that we can gift him the award just on the raw totals. (Fun with arbitrary endpoints: Jackson went 5-for-5 on April 30th, then hit .282/.333/.384 from May 1st through Saturday.)

Combine Matusz' performance, the caliber of his competition, and the fact that he holds more promise than those other candidates and he is my choice for AL Rookie of the Year. As for the most likely winner, Neftali Feliz, I don't worship at the altar of the save stat, and while Feliz was excellent, he threw just 69 innings this year; I love his upside if the Rangers put him back in the rotation, but that's just not enough value to put him ahead of a quality starter or two everyday players.
[h3]NL Rookie of the Year[/h3]
1. Jason Heyward
2. Buster Posey
3. Jaime Garcia





This was an unbelievable rookie crop, and both of the top two guys deserve the honor, but Heyward has both the bulk advantage and a miniscule edge in rate stats, while also performing in that tough NL East while doing all of this at age 20, or what would have been his junior year of college. Heyward's walk total will end up as the third-best ever for a player 20 or younger, and his OBP is the 8th-best ever for a player in that age group with at least 400 PA. None of this is meant as a slight to Posey, whom I argued last offseason should have been the Giants' regular catcher on Opening Day, and whose contributions at the plate and behind it were just as critical to the Giants' playoff hopes as Heyward's performance was to Atlanta's. With two players are as close in per-game performance as these two are, Heyward's bulk totals, his tougher competition, and his youth all pointed to him over Posey -- for me, at least, since I expect a fairly split ballot with those two garnering all of the No. 1 votes between them.

 

[dland24]

Originally Posted by Proshares


Keith Law's blog on the awards:

NL Rookie of the Year

1. Jason Heyward
2. Buster Posey
3. Jaime Garcia





This was an unbelievable rookie crop, and both of the top two guys deserve the honor, but Heyward has both the bulk advantage and a miniscule edge in rate stats, while also performing in that tough NL East while doing all of this at age 20, or what would have been his junior year of college. Heyward's walk total will end up as the third-best ever for a player 20 or younger, and his OBP is the 8th-best ever for a player in that age group with at least 400 PA. None of this is meant as a slight to Posey, whom I argued last offseason should have been the Giants' regular catcher on Opening Day, and whose contributions at the plate and behind it were just as critical to the Giants' playoff hopes as Heyward's performance was to Atlanta's. With two players are as close in per-game performance as these two are, Heyward's bulk totals, his tougher competition, and his youth all pointed to him over Posey -- for me, at least, since I expect a fairly split ballot with those two garnering all of the No. 1 votes between them.

I would LOVE to know how the Braves faced tougher competition than the Giants have.  Classic east coast bias for you.

And I still have yet to hear a single valid reason as to why Heyward > Posey this year.  Even Dodger fans think Posey should be it.  Thats saying something.

 

[bkmac]

AL MVP: Josh Hamilton
AL Cy Young: C.C. Sabathia
AL ROY: Neftali Feliz
AL MOY: Ron Washington

NL MVP: Joey Votto
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay
NL ROY: Buster Posey
NL MOY: Dusty Baker

ALDS: Rays over Rangers, Yankees over Twins
NLDS: Reds over Phillies, Giants over Braves
ALCS: Yankees over Rays
NLCS: Giants over Reds

WS: Yankees over Giants

 

[finnns2003]

Originally Posted by bkmac

AL MVP: Josh Hamilton
AL Cy Young: C.C. Sabathia
AL ROY: Neftali Feliz
AL MOY: Ron Washington

NL MVP: Joey Votto
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay
NL ROY: Buster Posey
NL MOY: Dusty Baker

ALDS: Rays over Rangers, Yankees over Twins
NLDS: Reds over Phillies, Giants over Braves
ALCS: Yankees over Rays
NLCS: Giants over Reds

WS: Yankees over Giants

Wow, you are quite possibly the biggest homer on NT.

 

[sohi 23]

Originally Posted by CincoSeisDos

NL ROY is Posey.

That is all.

 

[bkmac]

Originally Posted by finnns2003

Originally Posted by bkmac

AL MVP: Josh Hamilton
AL Cy Young: C.C. Sabathia
AL ROY: Neftali Feliz
AL MOY: Ron Washington

NL MVP: Joey Votto
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay
NL ROY: Buster Posey
NL MOY: Dusty Baker

ALDS: Rays over Rangers, Yankees over Twins
NLDS: Reds over Phillies, Giants over Braves
ALCS: Yankees over Rays
NLCS: Giants over Reds

WS: Yankees over Giants

Wow, you are quite possibly the biggest homer on NT.

Listen

! King Felix has the stats, I know that, but C.C., down the stretch at least, was starting games where the pressure was on. Hernandez hasn't pitched a truly meaningful game in months.

Believe me, if Felix wins, I won't be complaining.

 

[proshares]

Originally Posted by dland24

Originally Posted by Proshares


Keith Law's blog on the awards:

NL Rookie of the Year

1. Jason Heyward
2. Buster Posey
3. Jaime Garcia





This was an unbelievable rookie crop, and both of the top two guys deserve the honor, but Heyward has both the bulk advantage and a miniscule edge in rate stats, while also performing in that tough NL East while doing all of this at age 20, or what would have been his junior year of college. Heyward's walk total will end up as the third-best ever for a player 20 or younger, and his OBP is the 8th-best ever for a player in that age group with at least 400 PA. None of this is meant as a slight to Posey, whom I argued last offseason should have been the Giants' regular catcher on Opening Day, and whose contributions at the plate and behind it were just as critical to the Giants' playoff hopes as Heyward's performance was to Atlanta's. With two players are as close in per-game performance as these two are, Heyward's bulk totals, his tougher competition, and his youth all pointed to him over Posey -- for me, at least, since I expect a fairly split ballot with those two garnering all of the No. 1 votes between them.

I would LOVE to know how the Braves faced tougher competition than the Giants have.  Classic east coast bias for you.

And I still have yet to hear a single valid reason as to why Heyward > Posey this year.  Even Dodger fans think Posey should be it.  Thats saying something.



   Doesn't the section I highlight in blue not present several valid reasons why you could chose Heyward over Posey?  Almost everyone has said that this award is something that would go 51% to 49% for these two guys.  It's just a matter of preference.  You prefer the guy who's been there since day 1 and has been probably the most consistent hitter on a wild card team at the age of 20?  Or you want the phenom who came up midway and helped carry the team and the offense while managing a good pitching staff?

And when you go by pitchers, yes the NL East is tougher than the NL West.  He's going up against the big 3 of the Phillies, Pelf, Johan and Dickey on the Mets, Livan in WSH and Johnson, Sanchez, Nolasco on the Marlins.  SF is going up against Hudson and IPK in AZ, Ubaldo in COL, Kershaw, Kuroda, Billingsley in LA and Latos, Garland and Richard in SD.  I'd say the tougher pitching is definitely in the NL East.

 

[venom lyrix]

Keith Law is a @!$*!%+ idiot. That was one of the worst things I've ever read on baseball...horrible...smh

AL MVP: Josh Hamilton if not him then it HAS to be Robinson Cano
AL Cy Young: C.C Sabathia
AL ROY: Austin Jackson
AL MOY: Ron Gardenhire or Terry Francona

NL MVP: Joey Votto
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay
NL ROY: Jason Heyward
NL MOY: Bud Black = no one thought the Padres would be even close to a playoff spot

ALDS: Rays over Rangers in 5, Yankees over Twins in 4
NLDS: Here is my upset - Reds over the Phillies in 5, Giants over Braves in 5
ALCS: Yankees over the Rays in 7
NLCS: Reds over the Giants in 6

WS: Yankees over the Reds in 6

 

[airmaxpenny1]

Yankee Homerism

 

[venom lyrix]

Originally Posted by airmaxpenny1

Yankee Homerism

Let me ask you something...what did I say was homerism?

this thread is about predictions correct?

The awards...Hamilton had a tremendous year...his team is in the playoffs but he missed time due to injury. Cabrera won't win because the Tigers were awful. Cano is next in line. Cano missed 2 games all year, had the best season of his career by miles, 30 hrs, 100+ rbi, 200 hits and carried this team when Tex and AROD and Swisher and Posada were hurt. So shut up with your nonsensical logic on that fact, that I assume you have.

The predictions...the Yankees will beat the Twins, they own the Twins in the playoffs and in the regular season just about every year ever. Their 1 test is the Rays and when it comes to the post season....the Yankees are a different team, call it homerism...I call it watching this %*$%+%+ team for over 20 years, mostly in the playoffs. So get salty at the picks...and cry about it.

 

[airmaxpenny1]

Yankees have by far the most talented offensive lineup...Cano is great but its a lot easier to do what he did when you have Texiera, Granderson, A-Rod, Jeter etc around you...Miguel Cabrera and Josh Hamilton were the two best players this year that is quite inarguable.  Feliz Hernandez was the best pitcher.  the Cy Young and MVP are individual awards...They got to indivudal people. Yankee fans think having a 1st place team means one of their players has to be inconsideration for them.  There is a team award, it is the world series.

 

[sircharles2ol3]

Venom going in. Lol

ALMVO: Hamilton
ALCY: CC
ALLMOY: Gard

NLMVP: Votto
NLCY: Roy
NLMOY: Cox

Yanks over Twins, Rays over Rangers
Giants over Braves, Phils over Reds

Yanks in 7
Phils in 6

Yanks in 7 for #28.

Arod needs to do what he did last year though. Lol.

 

[jumpmanfromdabay]

AL MVP: Miggy
AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez
AL ROY: Neftali Feliz
AL MOY: Ron Washington

NL MVP: Joey Votto
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay
NL ROY: Buster Posey
NL MOY: Bud Black

ALDS: Rays over Rangers, Twins Over Yankees
NLDS: Phillies over Reds, Giants over Braves
ALCS: Rays over Twins
NLCS: Giants Over Phillies

WS: Giants over Rays

 

[jpzx]

AL MVP: Josh Hamilton.
AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez.
AL ROY: Austin Jackson.
AL MOY: Ron Gardenhire.

NL MVP: Joey Votto
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay.
NL ROY: Jason Heyward.
NL MOY: Bruce Bochy. (Team has improve every single year he has been the manager. Giants were 6.5 games out on August 25th).

ALDS: Rays over Rangers in 4, Twins over Yankees in 5
NLDS: Phillies over Reds in 3, Braves over Giants in 5
ALCS: Rays over Twins in 6
NLCS: Phillies over Braves in 5
World Series: Rays over Phillies in 6

 

[venom lyrix]

man I'm all alone in the Reds beating the Phillies

 

[jumpmanfromdabay]

Originally Posted by venom lyrix

man I'm all alone in the Reds beating the Phillies

i just didnt have the balls to say it 

. im rooting for Reds though

 

[gregzzy23]

All I know is Felix should not get the Cy because he didn't make ONE single meaningful pitch this year

 

[proshares]

Originally Posted by airmaxpenny1

Yankees have by far the most talented offensive lineup...Cano is great but its a lot easier to do what he did when you have Texiera, Granderson, A-Rod, Jeter etc around you...Miguel Cabrera and Josh Hamilton were the two best players this year that is quite inarguable.  Feliz Hernandez was the best pitcher.  the Cy Young and MVP are individual awards...They got to indivudal people. Yankee fans think having a 1st place team means one of their players has to be inconsideration for them.  There is a team award, it is the world series.

Yea but Tex slumped BAD to start to year, Granderson was terrible before September, A-Rod missed a lot of time, Jeter has been pretty bad all year and Posada is having the worst year of his career.  Cano has been consistent since Day 1.  I'm not saying he should win it but he should be no lower that 4th in the ballot to me.  Josh has a decent lineup too and he's hitting in one of the best hitters parks in baseball.  Again, not to take anything away from him because I think he should be 2nd or 1st.  I'm more shocked that Konerko doesn't even crack his top 10.

Law is a new school sabermetrics new wave thinking kinda writer and he's trying to transition readers into incorporating those stats (which are more accurate IMO) into their arguments and beliefs.  He's one of those writers where you either are fully behind him or can't stand him.

All I know is Felix should not get the Cy because he didn't make ONE single meaningful pitch this year
Neither did Greinke last year or Lincecum in the previous two years.  MLB is literally chock full of pitchers who have won the Cy Young but haven't had great team success.  I'm a die hard Yankee fan but I don't believe either of them should win the major awards.