Nike x OFF-WHITE Collection Thread - Rest In Peace Virgil Abloh

Lucky13s said:
James Beam III: there is no evidence to suggest that it isn’t (being manipulated)

That's not how it works, at all. You don't get to state a conspiracy with almost zero evidence and then go "prove that I'm wrong." The burden is on you to prove your claims are true, period.

Explain to me why OW shoes suddenly rise by 50%?

Supply and demand. Besides, which OW rose by 50%? The Original Ten has risen between 100% and 400% and there were various instances of "sudden rises". If you followed the OG 10 at all, none of this should be surprising.

The black Prestos and UNCs have recently gone up 10 to 25%. This isn't unprecedented.

By the way, prices went up on all platforms. Prestos in my size are over $1k at Flight Club now.
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I “get to” proffer any hypothesis that I want. I use both services. I watch them often enough. I’m also astute on how markets work. You’re very protective and close minded about this, I must say. Until we see who the buyers and sellers are, or at least some attempt at stamping them w a vague identifier, both systems will always be fair game to be criticized for NOT being transparent.

Btw goat prices following StockX is just evidence that small arb opportunities get closed, there shouldn’t be huge differences in the pricing on the platforms for any long period of time. Arbitrage opportunities exist to be closed in short order.
 
who closes those arbs? retail (making pennies?) do both Goat and Stockx monitor other platforms and make purchases? Based on what parameters? $30 over ask $40 over ask? Is stockx the leader in market transactions and Goat follows stock x? I got a lot of questions although I don't think it's impossible.
 
James Beam III said:
I “get to” proffer any hypothesis that I want. I use both services. I watch them often enough. I’m also astute on how markets work. You’re very protective and close minded about this, I must say. Until we see who the buyers and sellers are, or at least some attempt at stamping them w a vague identifier, both systems will always be fair game to be criticized for NOT being transparent.

Btw goat prices following StockX is just evidence that small arb opportunities get closed, there shouldn’t be huge differences in the pricing on the platforms for any long period of time. Arbitrage opportunities exist to be closed in short order.
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Prices going up on all platforms is evidence that small arb opportunities should be closed. Why would any one platform be wildly different in price, assuming similar transaction costs, for a sustained period of time? So if a UNC rises to 800 on StockX, it’s not staying at 650 for very long, if so then I’m closing that dislocation in short order.
 
James Beam III said:
Prices going up on all platforms is evidence that small arb opportunities should be closed. Why would any one platform be wildly different in price, assuming similar transaction costs, for a sustained period of time? So if a UNC rises to 800 on StockX, it’s not staying at 650 for very long, it’s therebeen we I’m closing that dislocation in short order.
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but what about a $50 rise? I get the bigger spreads but what about the smaller spreads. Especially with fees it doesn't make sesnse
 
lamichaeljames2 said:
who closes those arbs? retail (making pennies?) do both Goat and Stockx monitor other platforms and make purchases? Based on what parameters? $30 over ask $40 over ask? Is stockx the leader in market transactions and Goat follows stock x? I got a lot of questions although I don't think it's impossible.
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Goat and StockX have minor price differences, never large enough to make it worthwhile to buy on one to immediately sell on another w transaction costs. Most sophisticated sellers use both systems and sell on whichever is best, ensuring that one doesn’t move that far out of whack with another.
 
consios said:
people are deff manipulating prices on stockx , even if its not stockx themselves doing it. fake bids , fakes ask are there to try to get to people to sell low.
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I remember a member of this forum, cant recall username, saying he does this exact thing when he buys from stockx.
 
James Beam III said:
I “get to” proffer any hypothesis that I want. I use both services. I watch them often enough. I’m also astute on how markets work. You’re very protective and close minded about this, I must say. Until we see who the buyers and sellers are, or at least some attempt at stamping them w a vague identifier, both systems will always be fair game to be criticized for NOT being transparent.

Btw goat prices following StockX is just evidence that small arb opportunities get closed, there shouldn’t be huge differences in the pricing on the platforms for any long period of time. Arbitrage opportunities exist to be closed in short order.
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Sure. But your claims aren't backed up by any evidence so they're not worth much.

Think about these two questions:

1.) How is stockX doing with their current business model (12.5% of every transaction; they get paid instantly but don't pay out until after the shoe ships out; shoes come in and go out the same day so they don't have carrying costs)?

2.) What would happen if word got out that they were manipulating the market?

I'll share my answers: They're doing AMAZING with their current business model. If word got out that they were manipulating the market, they could potentially lose a ton of their customers.

So, it doesn't seem to make sense to take that risk. And since it doesn't make sense to do it, I need some hard proof to even entertain that idea.
 
The only way you would know is have a team of people analyze the price trends for a month and see what happens on certain days, you'll notice something sooner or later. They gonna get sloppy, but no way the black prestos should have jumped like that and no way the UNC 1s should of jumped either, it is crazy whats going on.
 
Lucky13s said:
Sure. But your claims aren't backed up by any evidence so they're not worth much.

Think about these two questions:

1.) How is stockX doing with their current business model (12.5% of every transaction; they get paid instantly but don't pay out until after the shoe ships out; shoes come in and go out the same day so they don't have carrying costs)?

2.) What would happen if word got out that they were manipulating the market?

I'll share my answers: They're doing AMAZING with their current business model. If word got out that they were manipulating the market, they could potentially lose a ton of their customers.

So, it doesn't seem to make sense to take that risk. And since it doesn't make sense to do it, I need some hard proof to even entertain that idea.
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1) my guess is StockX is doing pretty well, although I’m surprised they haven’t raised more in a series B VC round. I think it’s a nice little business and the play is to merge w Goat eventually, and ultimately sell to eBay or Amazon. My rough guess is that net, it’s a 10mm operating profit business right now.

What you described on getting paid is called “float” and is a way many businesses make money. Seamless for example collects your money for the food you bought, and doesn’t pay the vendor immediately, does so on a monthly basis. Insurance is a float business. StockX uses the power of float by delaying payment, sure.

2) what would happen? It wouldn’t be good. Hasn’t word already gotten out that they allow fakes, and employees have been wearing shoes for fun? How many market makers and fin institutions have manipulated prices and “word got out”?

There is a shadiness to StockX and how it operates. It’s convenient as heck for buyers and sellers. But it is opaque as heck too, and it’s price movements SEEM coordinated.
 
Lucky13s said:
Why not? It happens often, it's fairly normal.
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Serious question. what has happened in the last week that made the intrinsic value of a UNC 25%+ higher than it was last week? You could’ve bought it all day long the last month in the 600s. Was it “news” that it works eventually stop being released? No. There is no reason. My hypothesis is during the release window, StockX stepped in on some trades to keep it low, knowing there is demand for it (they see the bids). Now, they can release that proprietary inventory at higher prices, and make the transaction fees too. It’s big business. Do this hundreds of times in 20 popular shoes making an extra 100 here and there. Put a multiple on that extra “profit” in your next funding round and you have reason enough.
 
James Beam III said:
1) my guess is StockX is doing pretty well, although I’m surprised they haven’t raised more in a series B VC round. I think it’s a nice little business and the play is to merge w Goat eventually, and ultimately sell to eBay or Amazon. My rough guess is that net, it’s a 10mm operating profit business right now.

What you described on getting paid is called “float” and is a way many businesses make money. Seamless for example collects your money for the food you bought, and doesn’t pay the vendor immediately, does so on a monthly basis. Insurance is a float business. StockX uses the power of float by delaying payment, sure.

2) what would happen? It wouldn’t be good. Hasn’t word already gotten out that they allow fakes, and employees have been wearing shoes for fun? How many market makers and fin institutions have manipulated prices and “word got out”?

There is a shadiness to StockX and how it operates. It’s convenient as heck for buyers and sellers. But it is opaque as heck too, and it’s price movements SEEM coordinated.
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Just fyi, I believe Flight Club & GOAT have merged. Although I guess they could theoretically also merge with StockX down the line.

Besides funds being floated (albeit for not very long, typically 1-4 days), they keep their 12.5% cut. With merchant fees (credit card transactions), let's say it's closer to 10%.

While that doesn't seem like much, the volume is pretty high, and they don't have carrying costs since they don't own the inventory. That's huge.

I'm not saying StockX is transparent or angels, I just haven't seen evidence that they manipulate the market. And we've had this same very discussion a couple weeks back. So it's a bit annoying to rehash the same theories, with no real evidence.
 
This is why I’ll purchase them as early as possible for resell if I really want the pair. Most likely it’ll be the lowest point and don’t have to worry about any manipulations, if there are any.
 
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Just scour social media. prob some Kpop star rocked da UNC or back to school shopping.

I can literally make up a "theory" and yall would buy it.

In da end, take this stockx talk to the resell thread.
 
James Beam III said:
Serious question. what has happened in the last week that made the intrinsic value of a UNC 25%+ higher than it was last week? You could’ve bought it all day long the last month in the 600s. Was it “news” that it works eventually stop being released? No. There is no reason. My hypothesis is during the release window, StockX stepped in on some trades to keep it low, knowing there is demand for it (they see the bids). Now, they can release that proprietary inventory at higher prices, and make the transaction fees too. It’s big business. Do this hundreds of times in 20 popular shoes making an extra 100 here and there. Put a multiple on that extra “profit” in your next funding round and you have reason enough.
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Basic supply and demand.

These are actual sales from Flight Club LA for the Black Prestos in a size 8 (two of these sales I personally know the sellers):

Last week: $840. Then $900. Earlier this week $950. Yesterday, $1000. Now the low is $1500, and I wouldn't be shocked if that sells too. It's simple supply and demand. From $840 to $900 to $950 to $1000 in one week? You can be surprised or confused all you like, but it happened, actual sales.

By the way, if StockX artificially inflated prices then logically sales would slow down or halt, which is bad business. When you're dealing with high volume and a fixed profit %, you're better off selling higher quantities and quickly. Flight Club literally will deny your shoe if they think it's priced too high. They'd rather sell lower if it means selling quicker.

So again, with so many possible negatives compared to relatively little upside, why risk it? It doesn't make business sense.
 
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JPS said:
Just scour social media. prob some Kpop star rocked da UNC or back to school shopping.

I can literally make up a "theory" and yall would buy it.

In da end, take this stockx talk to the resell thread.
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There's a resell thread?? :nerd:
 
Prices may be manipulated but at the end of the day I believe the prices for the black prestos are rising because of sellers seeing the lower price sell. The price I purchased at, around 700, flew and the higher priced sellers eventually sold as well. This means people know it'll sell for even more than it was previously listed at. They raise the price and other sellers follow suit. Its not rocket science to me I believe its just the greed in people who want the most from their item.
 
Anyway - I'd love to own a pair of Blazers. Every colorway is sick, so I'd take any of them.

The new 90s are nice too.
 
I'm still hurt I missed the surprise drop for the Black OW prestos. I have the UNC OW 1s I scored on the SNKRS drop. I've been thinking immensely about selling for the prestos. Just doesn't seem right lol selling jordans for prestos.
 
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