Trade talk, analytics and more as draft nears
Thirty-six hours. That's how long NBA teams have to figure out this draft. Most teams were up late on Tuesday, poring over data, finalizing draft boards and prepping from Thursday.
As you can gather, teams are narrowing down their lists ... but few have made actual decisions about who they'll be drafting. Here's the latest:
• We know the real intrigue of the draft begins at No. 2 with the Charlotte Bobcats. Their trade of Corey Maggette for Ben Gordon and a 2013 first rounder from Detroit makes things a little easier if they keep the pick.
I think you can now safely scratch Bradley Beal off the board (his entire advisor team takes a huge sigh of relief). Ditto for Harrison Barnes (another huge exhale).
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is very much in the mix, however if they keep the pick it still sounds like Thomas Robinson has the slight edge.
• The Bobcats continue to talk to teams about moving down in the draft. The Wizards continue to hope that they don't make such a move.
Why? As we just noted, the Bobcats are likely to select Robinson at No. 2, which means the Wizards' favorite player, Beal would slide to No. 3.
Here's what has Washington worried. The most obvious trade partner for the Bobcats remains the Cavs, who could send them No. 4 and possibly No. 24 in return for No. 2. The Cavs would make the move to get their hands on Beal. The Bobcats would then select Robinson at No. 4, the same player they are likely to take with the No. 2 pick. The Wizards would then have to choose between Barnes and Kidd-Gilchrist.
So it shouldn't come as any surprise that late Tuesday evening, word began to "leak" out of Washington that the Wizards were getting "calls" from a number of teams that are trying to move up to No. 3 to take (drumroll please) ... Robinson.
It's a nice shot across the Bobcats' bow by the Wizards. In essence Wizards GM Ernie Grunfeld is telling Bobcats GM Rich Cho, if you make a deal with the Cavs, don't expect your favorite player, Robinson, to be there at No. 4.
You have to love these games as we get closer and closer to draft night. It reeks of a bluff, but then again, there are a number of teams that like Robinson and the Wizards probably feel like they could nab Barnes a little later in the draft if he's going to be the consolation prize.
• The Cavs are bringing in Washington wing Terrence Ross for a private workout on Wednesday. That's odd for a couple of reasons. One, it's highly doubtful that Ross is seriously in the mix at No. 4. Second, there's no way he's on the board when the Cavs pick again at No. 24.
What's going on? I think the Cavs are still exploring moving up in the draft. But now it sounds like they're also seriously looking at moving down a few spots if they can pick up additional assets. I've been told that's most likely in the 7-10 range, but it's unclear what they could be getting back that would be better than just taking Kidd-Gilchrist, the small forward that currently sits at No. 2 on the Big Board behind Davis. As for Ross, the Cavs better get a pick in the Top 11 if they want him. If Tyler Zeller is off the board, I believe the Bucks are leaning toward Ross at No. 12.
• The Warriors are preparing for a number of different scenarios at No. 7. Depending on how things go on draft night, either Barnes, Andre Drummond, Damian Lillard, Dion Waiters or even Kidd-Gilchrist falls to them.
They like all of the above, but like every other team in the NBA, not everyone agrees on the order. Jerry West, sources say, has Waiters ranked quite high. The owner, Joe Lacob, feels like it might be tough to pass on Drummond if he's there. Bob Meyers, the GM, is a Harrison Barnes fan. Everyone agrees that Kidd-Gilchrist is the guy should he fall. There are also Lillard supports in Golden State.
This is why Mock Drafts are so difficult. How are we supposed to report to you what teams are going to do when they don't know themselves?
• Picks 14, 16, and 18 (all owned by the Rockets now) are seen as mere placeholders by most of the league. No one believes the Rockets will have any of these picks on draft night, making them pretty tough to project. Whether it's Sacramento, Cleveland or someone else, the Rockets are working hard to package the picks together to either move up in the draft or to move out for a great veteran like Dwight Howard, Josh Smith or Pau Gasol.
• Fear not Jazz fans. GM Kevin O'Connor is exploring ways to move up in the draft. They have the Warriors pick in 2013 (top 6 protected), veterans like Paul Millsap, Al Jefferson and Devin Harris, and might even be willing to add in another young player (as long as you don't ask for Derrick Favors or Enes Kanter).
The question is, how high can they go? Their presumed target is Weber State's Lillard. They need a point guard and know him better than any team in the league. But if they could get higher, and get an even better prospect, they would. They like Beal and Kidd-Gilchrist a lot too.
• Advanced analytics are still controversial in NBA circles, especially when used to gauge the draft. Some teams put great value on them, others prefer to go with the old "golden gut" and "eye test" with prospects. Most teams are somewhere in the middle of this spectrum.
For the teams that employ them, each works with different formulas and often come to different conclusions. Sometimes the lists are similar, sometimes they aren't.
Ironically, the more scientific methods don't exactly produce a real consensus or order per se, but you do hear some names consistently as rating excellent, good, so-so or poor.
Our own John Hollinger revealed where most of the players in this draft fit already in his excellent Draft Rater column which ran last week. Hollinger's list was pretty consistent with what other teams are seeing with a few exceptions. Here was the list I've complied from my discussions with GMs and scouts who were willing to share some results.
Rate Excellent Analytically
The numbers all say these five guys should be really good NBA players. Remember, they can't say anything about Sullinger's back or Waiters' issues at Syracuse. They just rank what they saw on the court. These are the usual suspsects at the top of the draft minus Beal and Barnes.
Anthony Davis
Thomas Robinson
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
Dion Waiters
Jared Sullinger
Rate Good Analytically
This group also looks like they'll be players at the next level, though their numbers suggest more starter quality players. Green and Teague are much higher here than they are on most NBA teams' big boards.
Terrence Jones
John Henson
Quincy Miller
Draymond Green
Andre Drummond
Damian Lillard
Marquis Teague
Kendall Marshall
Rate So-So Analytically
There are some surprises here like two players in our top 5, Beal and Barnes. Jeremy Lamb is a bit of a surprise as well, as are Doron Lamb and Taylor.
Bradley Beal
Harrison Barnes
Royce White
Tyler Zeller
Doron Lamb
Tyshawn Taylor
Perry Jones
Jeremy Lamb
Rated Poorly Analytically
Skip Bayless, who said Rivers might be the second best player in the draft on "First Take yesterday," might not be happy to see this. Ditto for all of those teams that have Harkless and Leonard rising on their draft boards. It doesn't mean teams won't take them, just probably not ones who heavily use analytics.
Austin Rivers
Terrence Ross
Moe Harkless
Meyers Leonard
Arnett Moultrie
Jeff Taylor