***OFFICIAL 2019-20 FANTASY FOOTBALL THREAD (VOL. CALMA)***

[buc em]

Hope this helps

First year using the ultimate draft kit, usually I do my own research and make my own list before my draft, but I didn’t have time this year and I had my first draft of the season last Saturday

damn they got Peyton Barber at 34 ahead of even Latavius Murray but RoJo isn’t even in the top 50? Idk about all that.

 

[promac]

damn they got Peyton Barber at 34 ahead of even Latavius Murray but RoJo isn’t even in the top 50? Idk about all that.

Obviously it’s not written in stone, just a basic guide if you’ve been busy this preseason. I like Latavius Murray as well. Rojo was trash last season, you might be a homer with that one, or he might have a big year, no one really knows

I think I picked him up last year actually because you were hyping him up. This might be his year or you might be wrong again

 

[swerve]

Julio, Thomas, Adams, or Odell if you had to choose 1 in the 1st rd?

 

[buc em]

Obviously it’s not written in stone, just a basic guide if you’ve been busy this preseason. I like Latavius Murray as well. Rojo was trash last season, you might be a homer with that one, or he might have a big year, no one really knows

I think I picked him up last year actually because you were hyping him up. This might be his year or you might be wrong again

Nah hellllll no I wasn’t hyping him up and I’m not even hyping him up now. It’s just crazy that he was getting some hype again and now it’s starting to fall again once the season is close to starting. I think RoJo’s vision sucks, he has no wiggle and if he doesn’t have a clean hole to just run through he’s practically worthless most of the time. He’s also been dealing with a sore knee and missing all of practice this week leading up to our dress rehearsal game. Which doesn’t bode well at all for his chances of being the starter to begin the year.

 

[junglejim]

Nah hellllll no I wasn’t hyping him up and I’m not even hyping him up now. It’s just crazy that he was getting some hype again and now it’s starting to fall again once the season is close to starting. I think RoJo’s vision sucks, he has no wiggle and if he doesn’t have a clean hole to just run through he’s practically worthless most of the time. He’s also been dealing with a sore knee and missing all of practice this week leading up to our dress rehearsal game. Which doesn’t bode well at all for his chances of being the starter to begin the year.

He also isn’t the starter so being the 50th running back isn’t all that ridiculous

 

[buc em]

Julio, Thomas, Adams, or Odell if you had to choose 1 in the 1st rd?

I feel like Michael Thomas is possibly the safest player in fantasy. But if you want the highest ceiling then Beckham is your best bet. Julio is risky cause he’s always beat up and even Adams comes with some risk cause the Packers offense could end up not even being very good under that new coach.

 

[promac]

^^^ completely agree with that assessment

 

[macbk]

My league going on year 4 folded but was able to round up new guys to join. Looks like we are drafting 8/26.

Can finally start mocking. Randomized draft order and wound up with 2nd overall. Full point PPR. Come on down CMC or Barkley

 

[johnnyredstorm]

In a 12 team 0.5 PPR league where you start two RB’s, three WR’s and a flex would you rather have the 4th pick or the 10th pick?

I’m at the 4 spot but the dude at the 10 spot wants to swap positions and I’m debating it at the moment. I’d like to grab maybe Chubb and Michael Thomas or JuJu if I move to the 10 spot.

My mocks have been those settings out of the four hole with me going wr for the first three rounds and sometimes fourth. So see if that excites you or if you’d rather have the two closer picks and the longer wait in between.

 

[johnnyredstorm]

Julio, Thomas, Adams, or Odell if you had to choose 1 in the 1st rd?

Adams/Julio then thomas. I have juju above Odell.

 

[af1 1982]

Picking 10 out of 12 tonight in my keeper league. This is who is left, who do y’all think I should go with my first two rounds.

I’m thinking:
1)Bell, Conner, Brown
2) Mixon or Thielen

My keeper is Gurley BTW

 

[jpzx]

Going with Gould week one, thinking San Francisco could go down to Tampa and win 18-15 with both teams hitting all FGs.

 

[buc em]

Matt Gay could end up being a huge pickup at kicker in both real life and fantasy. Literally nobody is going to draft him but dude has a leg that goes 60+ yards and the Bucs are going to be in scoring position often.

 

[williamontana]

Nuk the clear #1 WR? want to grab him at #6 but if he's not there then might have to go for Michael Thomas over Adams

 

[buc em]

Nuk the clear #1 WR? want to grab him at #6 but if he's not there then might have to go for Michael Thomas over Adams

Yes IMO

 

[johnnyredstorm]

Nuk can go as early as four. Def would take him over David Johnson at 5.

 

[Clyde Frog]

Nah he’s not. And Adams is safer than Michael Thomas. Adams is guaranteed double digit TD’s. Rodgers trusts him more than anyone in the red zone like he did Jordy who was a TD machine. Adams was targeted more and Rodgers said he would like to target him even more than he did.

Not saying to choose Adams over Hopkins. But I have both in my keeper league and it’s very close.

 

[steebie j]

Julio, Thomas, Adams, or Odell if you had to choose 1 in the 1st rd?

Adams then Julio

 

[amarano]

Adams/Julio then thomas. I have juju above Odell.

i’m taking Juju at 8 regardless of who’s there in .5 ppr

i always like going off the board a little but he’s my guy this year and i don’t want to risk not getting him on the come back in 12 team draft

 

[johnnyredstorm]

You’ll still get a for sure wr1 on the way back to pair him with so you can’t go wrong. I expect a monster year. I pray he drops back to me in round 2.

 

[amarano]

Julio, Thomas, Adams, or Odell if you had to choose 1 in the 1st rd?

i’ll try to break it down a little based on my opinion

Julio- perennial monster. lingering injuries but plays through them. i’ve had him multiple years and developed a love hate relationship for him. he has an issue scoring tds which somehow is very real. i wouldn’t mind drafting him but i wouldn’t be too excited about it

Thomas- i drafted michael thomas his sophomore season with the 4 overall pick in a $1k league and it paid dividends. i’m avoiding him this year despite how much i loves him at one point. believe it or not the saints are now a running team and if you look at last year MT didn’t do anything spectacular after week 3 i think it was. drew brees age shows this year. target latavious murray

Adams- i love this guy. especially in a format like .5 ppr where tds are important. the guy is a silent killer in fantasy probably the least mentioned but most consistent. and he’s clear and above the packers #1 target in red zone. he can score anywhere from 10-15 tds this year. 10 being his floor. and he’s crazy consistent. i’m not buying this packers team being a running team because they have rodgers and he’s a ****. he’s gonna wanna throw. Adams is my #1 ranked WR this year even ahead of hopkins

Odell- i’ve been losing sleep over odell. he’s another guy i was all over early in his career, overdrafted him and paid dividends.
the good: he could easily be the number 1 wr this year. like crazy moss stats. he’s not as injury prone as many think. and baker mayfield i think was ranked #4 in deep bal accuracy last year. odell should flourish with a qb like baker 2018
the bad: i said baker 2018 because he rubs me the wrong way and i wouldn’t be surprised if baker 2019 isn’t as good as advertised. and nick chubb is the truth. odell put up gaudy numbers in NY because they had no other option especially a rushing game before saquon. he was forced the ball because he was the only one who could make plays. that won’t happen in cleveland. i’m not worried about landry as much as chubb. also their defense is legit. they won’t be playing from behind like the giants were
verdict: odell is a literal coin toss for me but i’m passing on him for juju

 

[amarano]

You’ll still get a for sure wr1 on the way back to pair him with so you can’t go wrong. I expect a monster year. I pray he drops back to me in round 2.

not to hype him or myself but i’ve always nailed WRs. i wrote a lengthy post above. i did it with odell and then MT before they became first rounders. and i took them i think both top 6 picks after rbs i liked were gone.

Juju is my guy this year to REALLY break out. he’s in a pass happy offense. no coaching change. no qb change. people will argue hell regress without brown but based on a small sample size of when brown was off the field JuJu actually had better numbers. that double team nonsense i don’t buy into, defenses can’t afford to double one guy on the field these days. he’ll draw it sometimes but not as much as everyone is talking about. and like adams, he’s the clear cut red zone target in that offense. he has breakaway speed (back to back years with 97 yard tds, i think he even did it in a preseason too) and the dude is strong. he won’t go down from an arm tackle

 

[stick]

I'd take Juju over any WR not named DeAndre Hopkins.

 

[stick]

Zero RB targets 15-11
https://www.rotoviz.com/2019/08/2019-zero-rb-candidates-countdown-no-15-to-no-11/

Spoiler

2019 Zero RB Candidates Countdown: No. 15 to No. 11

• August 20, 2019

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Welcome to the 2019 Zero RB target list where we help you find inexpensive RBs to destroy your league. The list isn’t just for Zero RB owners. You can use the list to construct a Zero RB squad, to fill out your 1-Elite-RB roster, or to build Flex upside into a RB-heavy start.

With his 2018 picks hitting at a high rate, Shawn won his 11th high-stakes league at the Main Event level or higher and added to his double-digit totals in top-15 national finishes. The Zero RB selections also helped him snag his third MFL10 of Death title in four years.

Today, he begins the Zero RB countdown for 2019.

We’ve had a lot of great Zero RB content this offseason.

• Zero RB Quietly Posted a 14% Win Rate in 2018 and All of the Conditions Are in Place Again
• Zero RB Is Set Up to Dominate Fantasy Drafts Again in 2019
• Why a Zero RB Owner will win $100,000 in DRAFT
• To Zero RB or Not To Be: Redraft Strategy for the Passing Revolution

We also know that 1-Elite-RB is a perfect approach for 2019, which means we can build an unstoppable juggernaut if we can snag a second elite RB in the later rounds.

But now it’s time to answer the question everyone really cares about: Who are the next RB stars for the approach?

The Zero RB target list has been extremely successful at nailing these players. In 2014 I explained the methodology I used from 2008 to 2013 to create outsized gains in high stakes formats. If you then used the list in 2015 through 2018, well, you’re playing with house money this season.

• 2015 – The target list included Devonta Freeman and Doug Martin. Martin went off the board at RB17 but finished as RB4. Freeman was selected outside the first 100 picks at RB29 but finished as the overall RB1.
• 2016 – Melvin Gordon was my top breakout candidate and highest-owned player.
• 2017 – Long before the Spencer Ware injury, we urged you to buy Kareem Hunt when he was still going outside the top 100. We also recommended Alvin Kamara, thus helping owners buy the No. 3 and No. 4 fantasy RBs on the season. With those results, the inclusion of Duke Johnson (RB11) and Chris Thompson (RB10 in PPG) almost seem like afterthoughts.

2018 may have been the best year for our RB selections. Phillip Lindsay made the Watch List. Top-30 RBs Matt Breida, Austin Ekeler, and Nyheim Hines all made the countdown. Top-15 finishers Chris Carson and Tarik Cohen were both primary recommendations, while top-10 finishers James White and James Conner appeared on the Zero RB list and the Handcuffs Who Could Be RB1s respectively.

Zero RB works. The evidence is unequivocal. But RotoViz users benefit from not only a deeper understanding of the strategy but from the time and research we put into RB selection. This season writers like Ryan Collinsworth, Cort Smith, and Blair Andrews have continued to build on our understanding of the RB templates that yield outsized results. We’ll look at their work and more as I present the RBs I’m drafting in 2019.

The List
As long-time readers know, these will be arranged in order of ADP, starting with the least expensive. Between Rounds 6 and 18 in each individual draft, you’ll want to select six or seven of the 15 targets. This provides enough flexibility to let the best values fall to you.

No. 15 Jalen Richard
A foundational tenet of Zero RB drafting has always been to load up on pass-catching backs, especially if they have a path to additional work. These runners don’t need the same quantity of touches to score points. Richard was a perfect example of this concept, finishing as RB29 last season despite logging only 55 rushing attempts. He’s now going off the board at RB64 even though his situation has gotten better.

Ben Gretch’s recent research took this concept of high-leverage touches and confirmed it with a novel and illustrative approach. I broke down his research in my look at Two James White Dopplengangers Ready to Break Out in 2019.

Ben wanted to avoid RBs with a lot of lower value carries and prioritize those with receptions and goal-line carries. He used the RotoViz Screener to search for total rush attempts, receptions, and rush attempts inside the 10. Not surprisingly, the first category didn’t contribute much to fantasy scoring.

Over the past five seasons, 75.1% of all running back touches were this type of low-impact rush attempt. Just 42.1% of all running back Fantasy points in the same sample were scored on these plays.

With a little help from the acronym genius of Pat Kerrane, Ben calls the percentage of low-value carries TRAP, or Trivial Rush Attempt Percentage.

The best 2018 TRAP score belonged to Richard at 42.3%. Think of it this way. If Richard actually loses more receiving value to Josh Jacobs, then he’s still a low-end Flex and bye week fill-in. But the upside is much higher.

Last year, Jon Gruden compared Richard to Charlie Garner and invoked the 1,000/1,000 season. This is the David Johnson dream, going over 1,000 yards in both the rushing and receiving games. Gruden then went out and drafted Josh Jacobs in the first round, which gives us a more accurate sense of the head coach’s evaluation.

On the other hand, this type of situation is perfect for Zero RB drafters. It offers an inexperienced rookie starter as camouflage for drafters and keeps Richard at a palatable ADP. Jacobs is not Marshawn Lynch, a veteran whirling dervish capable of gaining yards in any situation. Ryan Collinsworth points to the concern for Jacobs in this offense, especially with Gabe Jackson on the shelf. Devin McIntyre echoes those concerns and picks Darren Waller and Richard as the two biggest beneficiaries of the Antonio Brown madness.1

Jacobs caught 48 passes in three years in college. He’s a more-than-the-sum-of-his-parts player, but he doesn’t have the profile of a normal first-round pick. He doesn’t sit a tier or two below Saquon Barkley. It’s more like five or six.

Matt Forte is the only rookie back to rush 275 times and catch 60 passes since 2000. Jacobs would need to do that and more to eliminate Richard’s standalone value. The rookie has his work cut out for him just to tread water, and he’s going to get the low-value touches that get backs hurt without scoring a lot of fantasy points.

No. 14 Darwin Thompson
I have to admit to a little bias here as a Chiefs fan, but Thompson has been a priority all offseason. I built my late-round strategy in the MFL10 of Death VI around selecting him in Round 19. That I was confident I could get him that late shows how much has already changed for Thompson over the last couple of months. Many are joining the party now, but Devin McIntyre has been on it from the beginning.

Thompson was one of the 8 Explosive Breather Backs With Crazy ADPs. He made the list despite being just a rookie because he looks exactly like Austin Ekeler and Matt Breida looked before they took the NFL by storm. Thompson posted a 39-inch vertical at his pro day with plus performances in the forty and short shuttle. Moreover, that explosion translated to the field last season where he put up 1,395 yards from scrimmage at Utah State.


Year School Ru Att Ru Yards Ru Avg Ru TDs Rec Rec Yards Rec Avg Rec TDs
2016 NEO 150 1029 6.9 9 9 119 13.2 0
2017 NEO 185 1391 7.5 8 13 150 11.5 1
2018 Utah State 153 1044 6.8 14 23 351 15.3 2
Thompson is an all-around back, excelling as a runner (1,044 yards, 6.8 YPC), receiver (23 receptions), and TD-scorer (16). This fits perfectly with Andy Reid’s offense and raises the specter of Brian Westbrook and LeSean McCoy. It’s silly to think he’ll be that level as a rookie, but we just saw a similar situation play out that way in Denver. Lindsay did it in a far worse offense.

The Chiefs are sending out some serious signals as well. They’ve been frustrated with the Damien Williams’ health, pumping up Carlos Hyde only for reports to surface that the veteran may not even make the team. Reid is on record saying Thompson is more advanced than they thought, undercutting the concern that you shouldn’t take him seriously as a sixth-round pick. The rookie has 81 yards on 10 touches this preseason, including a 29-yard TD reception that vaulted him to instant cult status.

No. 13 Nyheim Hines
Hines ranked No. 3 in TRAP percentage and finished as the RB28 last year as a rookie. He was one of our Zero-RB hits from a year ago, in part because our RB model recognized his well-rounded profile at N.C. State and flagged him as wildly undervalued.

We already loved him and weren’t surprised by his debut season, but apparently his coaches were. Frank Reich signaled him out as performing beyond their expectations, high praise as he enters Year 2.

This is a pretty big deal. While fantasy owners are drafting Hines as though he’ll take a step back, Indianapolis beats constantly write about him as the entrenched receiving back and red-zone weapon. This narrative better fits the evidence, including a 4.38 forty that gives him a poor man’s Chris Johnson appeal. Similar to the situation in Oakland, the Colts have nothing else behind Marlon Mack. An increase in usage is much more likely than a decline.

Hines also has history on his side. Cort Smith recently expanded on Charles Kleinheksel’s RB ADP analysis and reminded us that committees are exploitable. The second RB selected in “small-gap committees” has traditionally posted the same win rate as the elite RB1s.

Cort labels Hines as the perfect selection in his look at 10 RBs Committees to Target:

Of 589 rookie RBs since 2000, only five of them caught more passes than Hines’ 63 last season — Saquon Barkley, Reggie Bush, Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffrey, and Matt Forte (tied).

In that time, there have been 10 RBs to record at least 55 receptions as rookies (excluding Barkley & Hines last year). As sophomores, that group averaged 250.1 fantasy points.

No. 12 Justice Hill
Are you sensing a theme?

Hill was the most athletic back in the 2019 class, posting a 4.4 forty and 40-inch vertical.

He fell to the fourth round after an injury-plagued junior season. It was his 2017 campaign that more accurately reflects what he’s already been doing with the Baltimore Ravens. As a sophomore, Hill generated 1,657 yards from scrimmage, 31 receptions, and 16 total TDs. That followed a debut campaign where he led all FBS freshmen with 1,142 rushing yards.

The rookie ranks sixth in preseason yardage through two weeks, showing off his patented jump-cut, stutter-step-and-go running style to the tune of 82 yards on 20 carries. The Ravens have a more crowded depth chart than some of the others I’ve profiled, but Hill serves a niche with explosive ability that nicely complements the Mark Ingram/Gus Edwards committee on early downs.

No. 11 Tony Pollard
Pollard gives me pause for a couple of reasons. Ezekiel Elliott and Jerry Jones aren’t exactly Le’Veon Bell and the Rooney family. It makes no sense for Elliott to miss any action this year, and the personalities involved make this feel like a race to cave first.

The other reason deals with Pollard’s status as a complementary college threat. He carried only 140 times total in three years at Memphis.2

He did, however, catch 103 passes.3 Not surprisingly, that figures heavily into our analysis. Ryan Collinsworth has written multiple columns on Pollard, begging you to keep drafting him as his ADP skyrockets.

Not only that, but our Prospect Box Score Scout adds a few more noteworthy comps to the equation: Kenyan Drake, Nyheim Hines, Alvin Kamara, and Devonta Freeman.

Oh, yeah. There’s one more thing I neglected to mention in last week’s article: Pollard returned seven kicks for touchdowns in his three-year career at Memphis. He’s tied with Spiller and Rashaad Penny for the most kick return touchdowns in a college career since 2000. His 30.1 average yards per return also ranks second over that span. This is especially encouraging because special teams contributions are an important and underutilized element in RB prospect evaluation.

ADP and Why History Likes These Backs as League-Winners
Thompson, Hill, and Pollard sit at the intersection of two very promising historical ADP trends. I’ve recently been writing quite a bit about Blair Andrews’ Win the Flex app. In covering the recent ADP risers, I noted that Thompson and Pollard are heading right for the RB Priority Window.

Week 1-16 Implied Points by ADP (2017-201

We hear a lot of owners say, “WR is deep.” This isn’t true at all in competitive drafts, but it can be especially misleading when it encourages owners to select WRs during the only window where RBs are similar or better values.

While we’ll focus on some expensive-but-exciting RB targets in Part 3, many of our Zero RB candidates will come from this window between 90 and 140.

The rookies are especially valuable in this range. This insight also comes courtesy of Blair, as The Wrong Read, No. 39 tells us:

What’s especially interesting is that these findings don’t exactly hold across the RB landscape. Although all RBs see their performance start to beat ADP in the middle rounds, the degree to which rookie RBs outperform in this range is drastic.

We followed Blair’s direction in drafting the Nick Chubb a year ago, and it paid big dividends.

How to Play It
The rookies are starting to get fairly expensive for their most realistic scenarios. We want to be careful not to reach much above ADP even for our top targets. But right now, they sit in the window where rookie RBs have traditionally crushed ADP.

Stay Tuned for Part 2 where we count down No. 10 to No. 6.

Image Credit: Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Nyheim Hines.

 

[dland24]

Picking 10 out of 12 tonight in my keeper league. This is who is left, who do y’all think I should go with my first two rounds.

I’m thinking:
1)Bell, Conner, Brown
2) Mixon or Thielen

My keeper is Gurley BTW

You guys only keep 1 player? Can I ask what the point of that is? Seems kind of silly, IMO.