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still got room for 1 more pm me
35 buy in ppr yahoo
draft sep 1
35 buy in ppr yahoo
draft sep 1
***OFFICIAL 2019-20 FANTASY FOOTBALL THREAD (VOL. CALMA)***
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by champcruthik,
- Start date
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To everyone who has a top-3 pick in a 12 team snake PPR - who are you seeing get back to ya R2?
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Zero RB targets 15-11
https://www.rotoviz.com/2019/08/2019-zero-rb-candidates-countdown-no-15-to-no-11/
2019 Zero RB Candidates Countdown: No. 15 to No. 11
Welcome to the 2019 Zero RB target list where we help you find inexpensive RBs to destroy your league. The list isn’t just for Zero RB owners. You can use the list to construct a Zero RB squad, to fill out your 1-Elite-RB roster, or to build Flex upside into a RB-heavy start.
With his 2018 picks hitting at a high rate, Shawn won his 11th high-stakes league at the Main Event level or higher and added to his double-digit totals in top-15 national finishes. The Zero RB selections also helped him snag his third MFL10 of Death title in four years.
Today, he begins the Zero RB countdown for 2019.
We’ve had a lot of great Zero RB content this offseason.
We also know that 1-Elite-RB is a perfect approach for 2019, which means we can build an unstoppable juggernaut if we can snag a second elite RB in the later rounds.
- Zero RB Quietly Posted a 14% Win Rate in 2018 and All of the Conditions Are in Place Again
- Zero RB Is Set Up to Dominate Fantasy Drafts Again in 2019
- Why a Zero RB Owner will win $100,000 in DRAFT
- To Zero RB or Not To Be: Redraft Strategy for the Passing Revolution
But now it’s time to answer the question everyone really cares about: Who are the next RB stars for the approach?
The Zero RB target list has been extremely successful at nailing these players. In 2014 I explained the methodology I used from 2008 to 2013 to create outsized gains in high stakes formats. If you then used the list in 2015 through 2018, well, you’re playing with house money this season.
2018 may have been the best year for our RB selections. Phillip Lindsay made the Watch List. Top-30 RBs Matt Breida, Austin Ekeler, and Nyheim Hines all made the countdown. Top-15 finishers Chris Carson and Tarik Cohen were both primary recommendations, while top-10 finishers James White and James Conner appeared on the Zero RB list and the Handcuffs Who Could Be RB1s respectively.
- 2015 – The target list included Devonta Freeman and Doug Martin. Martin went off the board at RB17 but finished as RB4. Freeman was selected outside the first 100 picks at RB29 but finished as the overall RB1.
- 2016 – Melvin Gordon was my top breakout candidate and highest-owned player.
- 2017 – Long before the Spencer Ware injury, we urged you to buy Kareem Hunt when he was still going outside the top 100. We also recommended Alvin Kamara, thus helping owners buy the No. 3 and No. 4 fantasy RBs on the season. With those results, the inclusion of Duke Johnson (RB11) and Chris Thompson (RB10 in PPG) almost seem like afterthoughts.
Zero RB works. The evidence is unequivocal. But RotoViz users benefit from not only a deeper understanding of the strategy but from the time and research we put into RB selection. This season writers like Ryan Collinsworth, Cort Smith, and Blair Andrews have continued to build on our understanding of the RB templates that yield outsized results. We’ll look at their work and more as I present the RBs I’m drafting in 2019.
The List
As long-time readers know, these will be arranged in order of ADP, starting with the least expensive. Between Rounds 6 and 18 in each individual draft, you’ll want to select six or seven of the 15 targets. This provides enough flexibility to let the best values fall to you.
No. 15 Jalen Richard
A foundational tenet of Zero RB drafting has always been to load up on pass-catching backs, especially if they have a path to additional work. These runners don’t need the same quantity of touches to score points. Richard was a perfect example of this concept, finishing as RB29 last season despite logging only 55 rushing attempts. He’s now going off the board at RB64 even though his situation has gotten better.
Ben Gretch’s recent research took this concept of high-leverage touches and confirmed it with a novel and illustrative approach. I broke down his research in my look at Two James White Dopplengangers Ready to Break Out in 2019.
Ben wanted to avoid RBs with a lot of lower value carries and prioritize those with receptions and goal-line carries. He used the RotoViz Screener to search for total rush attempts, receptions, and rush attempts inside the 10. Not surprisingly, the first category didn’t contribute much to fantasy scoring.
Over the past five seasons, 75.1% of all running back touches were this type of low-impact rush attempt. Just 42.1% of all running back Fantasy points in the same sample were scored on these plays.
With a little help from the acronym genius of Pat Kerrane, Ben calls the percentage of low-value carries TRAP, or Trivial Rush Attempt Percentage.
The best 2018 TRAP score belonged to Richard at 42.3%. Think of it this way. If Richard actually loses more receiving value to Josh Jacobs, then he’s still a low-end Flex and bye week fill-in. But the upside is much higher.
Last year, Jon Gruden compared Richard to Charlie Garner and invoked the 1,000/1,000 season. This is the David Johnson dream, going over 1,000 yards in both the rushing and receiving games. Gruden then went out and drafted Josh Jacobs in the first round, which gives us a more accurate sense of the head coach’s evaluation.
On the other hand, this type of situation is perfect for Zero RB drafters. It offers an inexperienced rookie starter as camouflage for drafters and keeps Richard at a palatable ADP. Jacobs is not Marshawn Lynch, a veteran whirling dervish capable of gaining yards in any situation. Ryan Collinsworth points to the concern for Jacobs in this offense, especially with Gabe Jackson on the shelf. Devin McIntyre echoes those concerns and picks Darren Waller and Richard as the two biggest beneficiaries of the Antonio Brown madness.1
Jacobs caught 48 passes in three years in college. He’s a more-than-the-sum-of-his-parts player, but he doesn’t have the profile of a normal first-round pick. He doesn’t sit a tier or two below Saquon Barkley. It’s more like five or six.
Matt Forte is the only rookie back to rush 275 times and catch 60 passes since 2000. Jacobs would need to do that and more to eliminate Richard’s standalone value. The rookie has his work cut out for him just to tread water, and he’s going to get the low-value touches that get backs hurt without scoring a lot of fantasy points.
No. 14 Darwin Thompson
I have to admit to a little bias here as a Chiefs fan, but Thompson has been a priority all offseason. I built my late-round strategy in the MFL10 of Death VI around selecting him in Round 19. That I was confident I could get him that late shows how much has already changed for Thompson over the last couple of months. Many are joining the party now, but Devin McIntyre has been on it from the beginning.
Thompson was one of the 8 Explosive Breather Backs With Crazy ADPs. He made the list despite being just a rookie because he looks exactly like Austin Ekeler and Matt Breida looked before they took the NFL by storm. Thompson posted a 39-inch vertical at his pro day with plus performances in the forty and short shuttle. Moreover, that explosion translated to the field last season where he put up 1,395 yards from scrimmage at Utah State.
Year School Ru Att Ru Yards Ru Avg Ru TDs Rec Rec Yards Rec Avg Rec TDs
2016 NEO 150 1029 6.9 9 9 119 13.2 0
2017 NEO 185 1391 7.5 8 13 150 11.5 1
2018 Utah State 153 1044 6.8 14 23 351 15.3 2
Thompson is an all-around back, excelling as a runner (1,044 yards, 6.8 YPC), receiver (23 receptions), and TD-scorer (16). This fits perfectly with Andy Reid’s offense and raises the specter of Brian Westbrook and LeSean McCoy. It’s silly to think he’ll be that level as a rookie, but we just saw a similar situation play out that way in Denver. Lindsay did it in a far worse offense.
The Chiefs are sending out some serious signals as well. They’ve been frustrated with the Damien Williams’ health, pumping up Carlos Hyde only for reports to surface that the veteran may not even make the team. Reid is on record saying Thompson is more advanced than they thought, undercutting the concern that you shouldn’t take him seriously as a sixth-round pick. The rookie has 81 yards on 10 touches this preseason, including a 29-yard TD reception that vaulted him to instant cult status.
No. 13 Nyheim Hines
Hines ranked No. 3 in TRAP percentage and finished as the RB28 last year as a rookie. He was one of our Zero-RB hits from a year ago, in part because our RB model recognized his well-rounded profile at N.C. State and flagged him as wildly undervalued.
We already loved him and weren’t surprised by his debut season, but apparently his coaches were. Frank Reich signaled him out as performing beyond their expectations, high praise as he enters Year 2.
This is a pretty big deal. While fantasy owners are drafting Hines as though he’ll take a step back, Indianapolis beats constantly write about him as the entrenched receiving back and red-zone weapon. This narrative better fits the evidence, including a 4.38 forty that gives him a poor man’s Chris Johnson appeal. Similar to the situation in Oakland, the Colts have nothing else behind Marlon Mack. An increase in usage is much more likely than a decline.
Hines also has history on his side. Cort Smith recently expanded on Charles Kleinheksel’s RB ADP analysis and reminded us that committees are exploitable. The second RB selected in “small-gap committees” has traditionally posted the same win rate as the elite RB1s.
Cort labels Hines as the perfect selection in his look at 10 RBs Committees to Target:
Of 589 rookie RBs since 2000, only five of them caught more passes than Hines’ 63 last season — Saquon Barkley, Reggie Bush, Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffrey, and Matt Forte (tied).
In that time, there have been 10 RBs to record at least 55 receptions as rookies (excluding Barkley & Hines last year). As sophomores, that group averaged 250.1 fantasy points.
No. 12 Justice Hill
Are you sensing a theme?
Hill was the most athletic back in the 2019 class, posting a 4.4 forty and 40-inch vertical.
He fell to the fourth round after an injury-plagued junior season. It was his 2017 campaign that more accurately reflects what he’s already been doing with the Baltimore Ravens. As a sophomore, Hill generated 1,657 yards from scrimmage, 31 receptions, and 16 total TDs. That followed a debut campaign where he led all FBS freshmen with 1,142 rushing yards.
The rookie ranks sixth in preseason yardage through two weeks, showing off his patented jump-cut, stutter-step-and-go running style to the tune of 82 yards on 20 carries. The Ravens have a more crowded depth chart than some of the others I’ve profiled, but Hill serves a niche with explosive ability that nicely complements the Mark Ingram/Gus Edwards committee on early downs.
No. 11 Tony Pollard
Pollard gives me pause for a couple of reasons. Ezekiel Elliott and Jerry Jones aren’t exactly Le’Veon Bell and the Rooney family. It makes no sense for Elliott to miss any action this year, and the personalities involved make this feel like a race to cave first.
The other reason deals with Pollard’s status as a complementary college threat. He carried only 140 times total in three years at Memphis.2
He did, however, catch 103 passes.3 Not surprisingly, that figures heavily into our analysis. Ryan Collinsworth has written multiple columns on Pollard, begging you to keep drafting him as his ADP skyrockets.
Not only that, but our Prospect Box Score Scout adds a few more noteworthy comps to the equation: Kenyan Drake, Nyheim Hines, Alvin Kamara, and Devonta Freeman.
Oh, yeah. There’s one more thing I neglected to mention in last week’s article: Pollard returned seven kicks for touchdowns in his three-year career at Memphis. He’s tied with Spiller and Rashaad Penny for the most kick return touchdowns in a college career since 2000. His 30.1 average yards per return also ranks second over that span. This is especially encouraging because special teams contributions are an important and underutilized element in RB prospect evaluation.
ADP and Why History Likes These Backs as League-Winners
Thompson, Hill, and Pollard sit at the intersection of two very promising historical ADP trends. I’ve recently been writing quite a bit about Blair Andrews’ Win the Flex app. In covering the recent ADP risers, I noted that Thompson and Pollard are heading right for the RB Priority Window.
Week 1-16 Implied Points by ADP (2017-201
We hear a lot of owners say, “WR is deep.” This isn’t true at all in competitive drafts, but it can be especially misleading when it encourages owners to select WRs during the only window where RBs are similar or better values.
While we’ll focus on some expensive-but-exciting RB targets in Part 3, many of our Zero RB candidates will come from this window between 90 and 140.
The rookies are especially valuable in this range. This insight also comes courtesy of Blair, as The Wrong Read, No. 39 tells us:
What’s especially interesting is that these findings don’t exactly hold across the RB landscape. Although all RBs see their performance start to beat ADP in the middle rounds, the degree to which rookie RBs outperform in this range is drastic.
We followed Blair’s direction in drafting the Nick Chubb a year ago, and it paid big dividends.
How to Play It
The rookies are starting to get fairly expensive for their most realistic scenarios. We want to be careful not to reach much above ADP even for our top targets. But right now, they sit in the window where rookie RBs have traditionally crushed ADP.
Stay Tuned for Part 2 where we count down No. 10 to No. 6.
Image Credit: Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Nyheim Hines.
Darwin Thompson should be much higher than 14.
- 9,788
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- Feb 6, 2011
- 12,344
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- Mar 30, 2004
It's a bit weird, but they're listed in reverse ADP order. They aren't ranks.
Always
.
- 37,127
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- May 2, 2012
What's 4nette's ADP in ppr looking like? I'm hoping he can fall to me R3.
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- Feb 12, 2013
I got Lenny at 32 in a 12 team .5 ppr...
- 74,378
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- Apr 4, 2008
Please post the next oneZero RB targets 15-11
https://www.rotoviz.com/2019/08/2019-zero-rb-candidates-countdown-no-15-to-no-11/
2019 Zero RB Candidates Countdown: No. 15 to No. 11
Welcome to the 2019 Zero RB target list where we help you find inexpensive RBs to destroy your league. The list isn’t just for Zero RB owners. You can use the list to construct a Zero RB squad, to fill out your 1-Elite-RB roster, or to build Flex upside into a RB-heavy start.
With his 2018 picks hitting at a high rate, Shawn won his 11th high-stakes league at the Main Event level or higher and added to his double-digit totals in top-15 national finishes. The Zero RB selections also helped him snag his third MFL10 of Death title in four years.
Today, he begins the Zero RB countdown for 2019.
We’ve had a lot of great Zero RB content this offseason.
We also know that 1-Elite-RB is a perfect approach for 2019, which means we can build an unstoppable juggernaut if we can snag a second elite RB in the later rounds.
- Zero RB Quietly Posted a 14% Win Rate in 2018 and All of the Conditions Are in Place Again
- Zero RB Is Set Up to Dominate Fantasy Drafts Again in 2019
- Why a Zero RB Owner will win $100,000 in DRAFT
- To Zero RB or Not To Be: Redraft Strategy for the Passing Revolution
But now it’s time to answer the question everyone really cares about: Who are the next RB stars for the approach?
The Zero RB target list has been extremely successful at nailing these players. In 2014 I explained the methodology I used from 2008 to 2013 to create outsized gains in high stakes formats. If you then used the list in 2015 through 2018, well, you’re playing with house money this season.
2018 may have been the best year for our RB selections. Phillip Lindsay made the Watch List. Top-30 RBs Matt Breida, Austin Ekeler, and Nyheim Hines all made the countdown. Top-15 finishers Chris Carson and Tarik Cohen were both primary recommendations, while top-10 finishers James White and James Conner appeared on the Zero RB list and the Handcuffs Who Could Be RB1s respectively.
- 2015 – The target list included Devonta Freeman and Doug Martin. Martin went off the board at RB17 but finished as RB4. Freeman was selected outside the first 100 picks at RB29 but finished as the overall RB1.
- 2016 – Melvin Gordon was my top breakout candidate and highest-owned player.
- 2017 – Long before the Spencer Ware injury, we urged you to buy Kareem Hunt when he was still going outside the top 100. We also recommended Alvin Kamara, thus helping owners buy the No. 3 and No. 4 fantasy RBs on the season. With those results, the inclusion of Duke Johnson (RB11) and Chris Thompson (RB10 in PPG) almost seem like afterthoughts.
Zero RB works. The evidence is unequivocal. But RotoViz users benefit from not only a deeper understanding of the strategy but from the time and research we put into RB selection. This season writers like Ryan Collinsworth, Cort Smith, and Blair Andrews have continued to build on our understanding of the RB templates that yield outsized results. We’ll look at their work and more as I present the RBs I’m drafting in 2019.
The List
As long-time readers know, these will be arranged in order of ADP, starting with the least expensive. Between Rounds 6 and 18 in each individual draft, you’ll want to select six or seven of the 15 targets. This provides enough flexibility to let the best values fall to you.
No. 15 Jalen Richard
A foundational tenet of Zero RB drafting has always been to load up on pass-catching backs, especially if they have a path to additional work. These runners don’t need the same quantity of touches to score points. Richard was a perfect example of this concept, finishing as RB29 last season despite logging only 55 rushing attempts. He’s now going off the board at RB64 even though his situation has gotten better.
Ben Gretch’s recent research took this concept of high-leverage touches and confirmed it with a novel and illustrative approach. I broke down his research in my look at Two James White Dopplengangers Ready to Break Out in 2019.
Ben wanted to avoid RBs with a lot of lower value carries and prioritize those with receptions and goal-line carries. He used the RotoViz Screener to search for total rush attempts, receptions, and rush attempts inside the 10. Not surprisingly, the first category didn’t contribute much to fantasy scoring.
Over the past five seasons, 75.1% of all running back touches were this type of low-impact rush attempt. Just 42.1% of all running back Fantasy points in the same sample were scored on these plays.
With a little help from the acronym genius of Pat Kerrane, Ben calls the percentage of low-value carries TRAP, or Trivial Rush Attempt Percentage.
The best 2018 TRAP score belonged to Richard at 42.3%. Think of it this way. If Richard actually loses more receiving value to Josh Jacobs, then he’s still a low-end Flex and bye week fill-in. But the upside is much higher.
Last year, Jon Gruden compared Richard to Charlie Garner and invoked the 1,000/1,000 season. This is the David Johnson dream, going over 1,000 yards in both the rushing and receiving games. Gruden then went out and drafted Josh Jacobs in the first round, which gives us a more accurate sense of the head coach’s evaluation.
On the other hand, this type of situation is perfect for Zero RB drafters. It offers an inexperienced rookie starter as camouflage for drafters and keeps Richard at a palatable ADP. Jacobs is not Marshawn Lynch, a veteran whirling dervish capable of gaining yards in any situation. Ryan Collinsworth points to the concern for Jacobs in this offense, especially with Gabe Jackson on the shelf. Devin McIntyre echoes those concerns and picks Darren Waller and Richard as the two biggest beneficiaries of the Antonio Brown madness.1
Jacobs caught 48 passes in three years in college. He’s a more-than-the-sum-of-his-parts player, but he doesn’t have the profile of a normal first-round pick. He doesn’t sit a tier or two below Saquon Barkley. It’s more like five or six.
Matt Forte is the only rookie back to rush 275 times and catch 60 passes since 2000. Jacobs would need to do that and more to eliminate Richard’s standalone value. The rookie has his work cut out for him just to tread water, and he’s going to get the low-value touches that get backs hurt without scoring a lot of fantasy points.
No. 14 Darwin Thompson
I have to admit to a little bias here as a Chiefs fan, but Thompson has been a priority all offseason. I built my late-round strategy in the MFL10 of Death VI around selecting him in Round 19. That I was confident I could get him that late shows how much has already changed for Thompson over the last couple of months. Many are joining the party now, but Devin McIntyre has been on it from the beginning.
Thompson was one of the 8 Explosive Breather Backs With Crazy ADPs. He made the list despite being just a rookie because he looks exactly like Austin Ekeler and Matt Breida looked before they took the NFL by storm. Thompson posted a 39-inch vertical at his pro day with plus performances in the forty and short shuttle. Moreover, that explosion translated to the field last season where he put up 1,395 yards from scrimmage at Utah State.
Year School Ru Att Ru Yards Ru Avg Ru TDs Rec Rec Yards Rec Avg Rec TDs
2016 NEO 150 1029 6.9 9 9 119 13.2 0
2017 NEO 185 1391 7.5 8 13 150 11.5 1
2018 Utah State 153 1044 6.8 14 23 351 15.3 2
Thompson is an all-around back, excelling as a runner (1,044 yards, 6.8 YPC), receiver (23 receptions), and TD-scorer (16). This fits perfectly with Andy Reid’s offense and raises the specter of Brian Westbrook and LeSean McCoy. It’s silly to think he’ll be that level as a rookie, but we just saw a similar situation play out that way in Denver. Lindsay did it in a far worse offense.
The Chiefs are sending out some serious signals as well. They’ve been frustrated with the Damien Williams’ health, pumping up Carlos Hyde only for reports to surface that the veteran may not even make the team. Reid is on record saying Thompson is more advanced than they thought, undercutting the concern that you shouldn’t take him seriously as a sixth-round pick. The rookie has 81 yards on 10 touches this preseason, including a 29-yard TD reception that vaulted him to instant cult status.
No. 13 Nyheim Hines
Hines ranked No. 3 in TRAP percentage and finished as the RB28 last year as a rookie. He was one of our Zero-RB hits from a year ago, in part because our RB model recognized his well-rounded profile at N.C. State and flagged him as wildly undervalued.
We already loved him and weren’t surprised by his debut season, but apparently his coaches were. Frank Reich signaled him out as performing beyond their expectations, high praise as he enters Year 2.
This is a pretty big deal. While fantasy owners are drafting Hines as though he’ll take a step back, Indianapolis beats constantly write about him as the entrenched receiving back and red-zone weapon. This narrative better fits the evidence, including a 4.38 forty that gives him a poor man’s Chris Johnson appeal. Similar to the situation in Oakland, the Colts have nothing else behind Marlon Mack. An increase in usage is much more likely than a decline.
Hines also has history on his side. Cort Smith recently expanded on Charles Kleinheksel’s RB ADP analysis and reminded us that committees are exploitable. The second RB selected in “small-gap committees” has traditionally posted the same win rate as the elite RB1s.
Cort labels Hines as the perfect selection in his look at 10 RBs Committees to Target:
Of 589 rookie RBs since 2000, only five of them caught more passes than Hines’ 63 last season — Saquon Barkley, Reggie Bush, Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffrey, and Matt Forte (tied).
In that time, there have been 10 RBs to record at least 55 receptions as rookies (excluding Barkley & Hines last year). As sophomores, that group averaged 250.1 fantasy points.
No. 12 Justice Hill
Are you sensing a theme?
Hill was the most athletic back in the 2019 class, posting a 4.4 forty and 40-inch vertical.
He fell to the fourth round after an injury-plagued junior season. It was his 2017 campaign that more accurately reflects what he’s already been doing with the Baltimore Ravens. As a sophomore, Hill generated 1,657 yards from scrimmage, 31 receptions, and 16 total TDs. That followed a debut campaign where he led all FBS freshmen with 1,142 rushing yards.
The rookie ranks sixth in preseason yardage through two weeks, showing off his patented jump-cut, stutter-step-and-go running style to the tune of 82 yards on 20 carries. The Ravens have a more crowded depth chart than some of the others I’ve profiled, but Hill serves a niche with explosive ability that nicely complements the Mark Ingram/Gus Edwards committee on early downs.
No. 11 Tony Pollard
Pollard gives me pause for a couple of reasons. Ezekiel Elliott and Jerry Jones aren’t exactly Le’Veon Bell and the Rooney family. It makes no sense for Elliott to miss any action this year, and the personalities involved make this feel like a race to cave first.
The other reason deals with Pollard’s status as a complementary college threat. He carried only 140 times total in three years at Memphis.2
He did, however, catch 103 passes.3 Not surprisingly, that figures heavily into our analysis. Ryan Collinsworth has written multiple columns on Pollard, begging you to keep drafting him as his ADP skyrockets.
Not only that, but our Prospect Box Score Scout adds a few more noteworthy comps to the equation: Kenyan Drake, Nyheim Hines, Alvin Kamara, and Devonta Freeman.
Oh, yeah. There’s one more thing I neglected to mention in last week’s article: Pollard returned seven kicks for touchdowns in his three-year career at Memphis. He’s tied with Spiller and Rashaad Penny for the most kick return touchdowns in a college career since 2000. His 30.1 average yards per return also ranks second over that span. This is especially encouraging because special teams contributions are an important and underutilized element in RB prospect evaluation.
ADP and Why History Likes These Backs as League-Winners
Thompson, Hill, and Pollard sit at the intersection of two very promising historical ADP trends. I’ve recently been writing quite a bit about Blair Andrews’ Win the Flex app. In covering the recent ADP risers, I noted that Thompson and Pollard are heading right for the RB Priority Window.
Week 1-16 Implied Points by ADP (2017-201
We hear a lot of owners say, “WR is deep.” This isn’t true at all in competitive drafts, but it can be especially misleading when it encourages owners to select WRs during the only window where RBs are similar or better values.
While we’ll focus on some expensive-but-exciting RB targets in Part 3, many of our Zero RB candidates will come from this window between 90 and 140.
The rookies are especially valuable in this range. This insight also comes courtesy of Blair, as The Wrong Read, No. 39 tells us:
What’s especially interesting is that these findings don’t exactly hold across the RB landscape. Although all RBs see their performance start to beat ADP in the middle rounds, the degree to which rookie RBs outperform in this range is drastic.
We followed Blair’s direction in drafting the Nick Chubb a year ago, and it paid big dividends.
How to Play It
The rookies are starting to get fairly expensive for their most realistic scenarios. We want to be careful not to reach much above ADP even for our top targets. But right now, they sit in the window where rookie RBs have traditionally crushed ADP.
Stay Tuned for Part 2 where we count down No. 10 to No. 6.
Image Credit: Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Nyheim Hines.
- 7,679
- 19,480
- Joined
- Dec 18, 2012
How y'all feel about Stephon Diggs? Reading that him and Thielen are the best WR duo in the league so I might target him more than not
- 37,127
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- May 2, 2012
I think we've all wanted Diggs to breakout, and it's really been Thielen who outproduces. That being said, I would be happy having either.
- 33,349
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- Apr 28, 2009
Mike Evans has a quad strain and the Bucs are gonna keep him out of this week’s preseason game. Now Godwin’s stock is gonna jump even ****ing more just days before my draft. Hopefully people are just realizing it’s something minor and he’ll be ready for Week 1.
- 6,846
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- Jun 11, 2014
kubiak gonna run more
expect theilen to regress
diggs had the better numbers last few weeks when they moved to the new offense and I expect that to continue
expect theilen to regress
diggs had the better numbers last few weeks when they moved to the new offense and I expect that to continue
- 7,679
- 19,480
- Joined
- Dec 18, 2012
Exactly what I'm hoping for. Diggs is my keeper in a 14 team league. Gonna put up a lot of cash for RBs come draft day
- 25,557
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- Aug 10, 2003
joining my first ever fantasy league.... my friend been asking me for years and i always said no... but this year i felt obligated and joined lol... any tips for first timers on who to draft? Right now I made a print out of top 200 players and highlighted the top four of each position… also made a list of top defenses in the league… I talked to my coworker and he said just draft best available always but my top 2-3 picks should be RB and WR… im curious to know where I draft I don’t know yet and I don’t know how many in my league
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- Apr 15, 2013
been waiting for diggs to breakout for like 3 years now and it just hasn’t happened
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- Apr 28, 2009
There is no Diggs breakout happening...he’s already had what’s considered his “breakout” a couple years ago. What he’s been over the last year or two is what he is.
- 7,679
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- Joined
- Dec 18, 2012
Knowing how many teams in the league is really important, hopefully it's not too many.
Look up tier based rankings, it'll help construct your roster.
I wouldn't focus too much on defense, the best ones will be drafted high compared to above decent defenses you could draft with your second to last pick
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- May 2, 2012
In all honestly (and I think this is the first year I am going to adapt this practice), draft K & D/ST with your final two picks. Unless a stud kicker/defensive unit is there for the taking earlier, it's better to just grab bench players who potentially could be used as trade bait.
- 7,679
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- Dec 18, 2012
Those highlighted top 4 in the RB and WR positions will be wiped out by round 2. TE and QB can be taken much later depending on the depth of your league.
Load up on RBs and WRs, they'll make most of difference for your season.
Most of all, have fun. Money at stake but some take it too seriously. If it's mutual friends then banter with the others, talk ****, learn from them.
Good luck
Load up on RBs and WRs, they'll make most of difference for your season.
Most of all, have fun. Money at stake but some take it too seriously. If it's mutual friends then banter with the others, talk ****, learn from them.
Good luck
- 6,714
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- Sep 27, 2003
Finding more joy in leagues with Superflexes. Changes up fantasy football a bit and makes things more unpredictable.
- 33,349
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- Apr 28, 2009
Why did the report about Darwin getting ahead of Hyde on the depth chart have to come out right now......
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- 4,712
- Joined
- Mar 30, 2004
I run a superflex keeper league that’s been going for like 6-7 years. By far my favorite format. Throws a wrench into every draft strategy, and at least in my league, every year’s draft is different. The positional runs, especially QB, are always entertaining.
I’ve never won the championship in the league though. Lost in the finals in consecutive years in 2015 and 2016
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- 2,388
- 2,433
- Joined
- Jan 26, 2019
I was already considering him in the 8th-9th, now I wonder if that might be too late smh
- 2,235
- 811
- Joined
- Apr 1, 2015
2QB/Superflex is the way to go. Otherwise everyone just drafts RBs and WRs all day.
- 2,388
- 2,433
- Joined
- Jan 26, 2019
My main league is 2 qb and it's by far the best league I've been in. 1 qb 4 pt passing td leagues need to go the way of the caveman imo. Also IDP > Team D.
