***Official Political Discussion Thread***

[rexanglorum]

Nah, my district, the 8th district, will remain red for a long time without some gerrymandering to be completely honest.

Jerry Brown gonna have to press that button

I know, I was using a bit of hyperbole, I imagine that about half of the GOP's 14 CA Congress people will be unseated in 2018 whereas a slight "reconfiguring" after da 2020 Census could get ride of every CA GOP House member.

Don't count out the 8th flipping though. In 2018, the only truly safe seats will be in districts that are deep red and mostly rural-white or rural with white people and lots of undocumented people. So LaMalfa in the 1st, McClintock in the 4th, Nunes in the 22nd and McCarthy in the 23rd are safe.

Every other GOP seat is vulnerable throug ha combination of demoralized republican voters and mobilized and potentially mobilized Chicano voters. The 8th is such a district. You get the children of undocumented along the Colorado river, the liberal whites who are taking over the Eastern Sierra and the black and Latino folks in Victorville and the IE more mobilized and you can take this district.

I know it is almost a cliche but organization and turnout matters and in a place like the 8th it could matter even moreso. In the 8th, most of the people live in the IE/Victorville portion of the district, you could get a draw there and then the election gets decided on the fringes. If Mammoth-Bishop white liberals organize, drive to the puolls, pick up poor Latino hospitality workers and take them to the polls, we could win.

It is not even over the top to suggest that the majority of the next Congress could hinge on which East Sierra residents are willing to drive and pick people up during a snow storm. Will the good ole' boys drive the 30 miles into Lone Pine or will the white liberals be willing to take themselves and the adult children of undocumented workers to the polls in Mammoth?


As for me, the nearest vulnerable red district is the 25th. I'll be knocking on doors in Simi Valley because it will be so sweet to turn the district with the Reagan library and the site of the Rodney King verdict blue. If the 25th were to flip it would be due in no small part to black and Latino turnout in the Antelope Valley and the Santa Clarita Valleys. However, we need to have a rally at the park right next to the infamous East County Court House.

 

[dragicon]

^ there is way too much optimism in this post. I don't see why there is any real reason to think the GOP is in trouble. There are so many scumbags and other morally wrong people who constantly get elected and re-elected.

 

[RustyShackleford]

If there is one place the GOP is on the verge of being marginalized completely out of power, it is Cali

Cali will punish the GOP for their nonsense, the question is if the rest of the country will follow.

 

[aepps20]

^ there is way too much optimism in this post. I don't see why there is any real reason to think the GOP is in trouble. There are so many scumbags and other morally wrong people who constantly get elected and re-elected.

Very true, these people were so sickened with Don but still voted for him. These people are phonies and hypocrites of the highest order.

 

[RustyShackleford]

The GOP goofed by going against the AARP. People forget that Bush's attempts to privatize Social Security was one of the major things that cause swing voters to turn on him.

If the GOP is stupid enough to roll back the regulations soon, it could get really bad for them.

I think the 2018 midterms will be akind to the Dems and the GOP playing Mortal Kombat and the Dems get the "Finish Him" screen. I would hope turnout is huge and will pull the fatality. But something tells be all this in infighting gonna catch us button mashing, and nothing major happens. We get the "W" just not the W we should have.

 

[AZwildcats]

Still boggles my mind that the people who need Obamacare the most, hate it the most as well. They got these rich *** Repubs essentially laughing in their faces as they pass the repeal, and they still dont get the message that they are being played like violins 

 

[dragicon]

The GOP goofed by going against the AARP. People forget that Bush's attempts to privatize Social Security was one of the major things that cause swing voters to turn on him.

If the GOP is stupid enough to roll back the regulations soon, it could get really bad for them.

The same people who vote GOP are just as greedy as the people they elect though. The voters don't care about improving communities, helping others, education, or the future. All they want is their taxes to be cheaper and "well, I didn't get any help, so why should I help other people?" The GOP does seem stupid to try to negatively impact health insurance and other daily problems people have, but they will just make excuses and blame it on the democrats as to why they did it. They will also bring up gay marriage, terrorism, gun control, and taxes to grab those votes back.

 

[RustyShackleford]

Old people a lil different though. They indulge in white supremacy but when you touch their golden gooses they get pissed and will turn on you.

 

[boris]

I can't wait for my insurance costs to go up but at least I can cop da Hemi.

 

[aepps20]

I can't wait for my insurance costs to go up but at least I can cop da Hemi.

EXCELLENT post as usual. With Da savings u get from Da Coal Train paying for Da Black Lung will be easier than ever.

 

[rexanglorum]

^ there is way too much optimism in this post. I don't see why there is any real reason to think the GOP is in trouble. There are so many scumbags and other morally wrong people who constantly get elected and re-elected.

Remember that I am talking about California and to a lesser extent Nevada, Arizona and other parts of the Country with large or growing Chicano (Mexican-American) populations.

I am optimistic because since the late 1990's, the GOP has lost the California State Assembly, the California Senate, the Governorship (even when Arnold was governor the other seven independently elected executive offices/"Cabinet" were all Democrats), they have no chance in Senate races so their 14 seats are the last domino to fall.

I also made it clear that there would be no 14 seat sweep since a few of them are in such Demographically safe districts. There are seven districts in the LA and San Diego metro area that should be easy pickups and then there are another three or four that are long shots but not impossible pickups.

The toughest aspect of winning these long shot seats are mobilizing voters whose demographics suggest that they would be hard to mobilize. The long shot districts are districts with undocumented immigrants who now have adult child who are citizens and eligible to vote but it is hard to mobilize poor voters, voters of color and voters under 30.

If the DNC and California Democratic Party spends it money on its ground game then that combined with Trump's anti Mexican animus could help to finish what Pete Wilson Started in the 1990's, the immolation of the GOP in California.

 

[IATT]

 

[whywesteppin]

Old people a lil different though. They indulge in white supremacy but when you touch their golden gooses they get pissed and will turn on you.

Makes me think of the South Park episode where the old people militarize.

 

[jimmypiff]

Trump is just entertainment now lol I haven't met a young trump supporter who is a sincere conservative, the few I've met are usually old and don't really understand modern politics let alone the presidents "policy" or flat out racist, the other half are JUST racists who didn't know what conservative meant until they googled it last year lol. Personally I think this is great, its a minor sacrifice for the future. The majority of millennials are liberal for very good reasons and trump is just fuel for that fire, this **** stain that trump will leave on the republican party will take years to clean up..

 

[Mark Antony]

Taking​ lobbyist reasons away, what personal objection would someone really have to not include pre-existing conditions? Some heartless ****.

 

[stuntman mike]

watching the anti-science, destroy the environment agenda in action is not one bit entertaining to me.

 

[moe fab]

I agree, but the 8th will take a while. I kno exactly the kind of people that live in this district. Rich white folks in east highland, that look down on san bernardino n its problems, which all these politicians speak on but have done nothing about, redneck tweakers in beaumont, yucaipa, n victorville, white washed mexicans in redlands, n old racists mixed in everywhere. It will be a while, but the demographics are shifting, n in, say, another decade or so, the district will be flipped.

 

[jimmypiff]

Taking​ lobbyist reasons away, what personal objection would someone really have to not include pre-existing conditions? Some heartless ****.

what lobbyist lol? the "swamp" was drained of those middleman lobbyist... rex tillerson the head of exxon is in Washington for God's sake

 

[IATT]

 

[elpablo21]

#IAmAPreexistingCondition

 

[jimmypiff]

pancreatic cancer, smh

 

[tay1]

You know things are bad when yahoo comments are complaining about the bill. I thought this is what their crowd wanted?

 

[IATT]

 

[IATT]

 

[gry60]

You know things are bad when yahoo comments are complaining about the bill. I thought this is what their crowd wanted?

"I'm going to eat you! "

"he tells it like it is"

Sheeple for Trump (and the 1%)