2012 Official NFL Fantasy Football Thread

[HEATHEN]

Alright September is right around the corner and that means football is almost here. Time to start doing mocks and preparing for the upcoming fantasy football season. 

Here's ESPN's Matthew Berry's current 2012 projected top 200.

LINK: http://sports.espn.go.com...e=NFLDK2K12ranksBerry200

[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Bye[/th][th=""]Pos. Rank[/th][/tr][tr][td]1[/td][td]Aaron Rodgers, GB[/td][td]10[/td][td]QB1[/td][/tr][tr][td]2[/td][td]Tom Brady, NE[/td][td]9[/td][td]QB2[/td][/tr][tr][td]3[/td][td]Ray Rice, BAL[/td][td]8[/td][td]RB1[/td][/tr][tr][td]4[/td][td]Arian Foster, HOU[/td][td]8[/td][td]RB2[/td][/tr][tr][td]5[/td][td]LeSean McCoy, PHI[/td][td]7[/td][td]RB3[/td][/tr][tr][td]6[/td][td]Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC[/td][td]6[/td][td]RB4[/td][/tr][tr][td]7[/td][td]Drew Brees, NO[/td][td]6[/td][td]QB3[/td][/tr][tr][td]8[/td][td]Calvin Johnson, DET[/td][td]5[/td][td]WR1[/td][/tr][tr][td]9[/td][td]Chris Johnson, TEN[/td][td]11[/td][td]RB5[/td][/tr][tr][td]10[/td][td]Matt Forte, CHI[/td][td]6[/td][td]RB6[/td][/tr][tr][td]11[/td][td]Ryan Mathews, SD[/td][td]7[/td][td]RB7[/td][/tr][tr][td]12[/td][td]Matthew Stafford, DET[/td][td]5[/td][td]QB4[/td][/tr][tr][td]13[/td][td]Marshawn Lynch, SEA[/td][td]11[/td][td]RB8[/td][/tr][tr][td]14[/td][td]Jimmy Graham, NO[/td][td]6[/td][td]TE1[/td][/tr][tr][td]15[/td][td]Rob Gronkowski, NE[/td][td]9[/td][td]TE2[/td][/tr][tr][td]16[/td][td]Larry Fitzgerald, ARI[/td][td]10[/td][td]WR2[/td][/tr][tr][td]17[/td][td]Greg Jennings, GB[/td][td]10[/td][td]WR3[/td][/tr][tr][td]18[/td][td]Jamaal Charles, KC[/td][td]7[/td][td]RB9[/td][/tr][tr][td]19[/td][td]Michael Vick, PHI[/td][td]7[/td][td]QB5[/td][/tr][tr][td]20[/td][td]Brandon Marshall, CHI[/td][td]6[/td][td]WR4[/td][/tr][tr][td]21[/td][td]Cam Newton, CAR[/td][td]6[/td][td]QB6[/td][/tr][tr][td]22[/td][td]DeMarco Murray, DAL[/td][td]5[/td][td]RB10[/td][/tr][tr][td]23[/td][td]Roddy White, ATL[/td][td]7[/td][td]WR5[/td][/tr][tr][td]24[/td][td]Julio Jones, ATL[/td][td]7[/td][td]WR6[/td][/tr][tr][td]25[/td][td]Wes Welker, NE[/td][td]9[/td][td]WR7[/td][/tr][tr][td]26[/td][td]Adrian Peterson, MIN[/td][td]11[/td][td]RB11[/td][/tr][tr][td]27[/td][td]Darren McFadden, OAK[/td][td]5[/td][td]RB12[/td][/tr][tr][td]28[/td][td]Hakeem Nicks, NYG[/td][td]11[/td][td]WR8[/td][/tr][tr][td]29[/td][td]A.J. Green, CIN[/td][td]8[/td][td]WR9[/td][/tr][tr][td]30[/td][td]Steven Jackson, STL[/td][td]9[/td][td]RB13[/td][/tr][tr][td]31[/td][td]Andre Johnson, HOU[/td][td]8[/td][td]WR10[/td][/tr][tr][td]32[/td][td]Victor Cruz, NYG[/td][td]11[/td][td]WR11[/td][/tr][tr][td]33[/td][td]Mike Wallace, PIT[/td][td]4[/td][td]WR12[/td][/tr][tr][td]34[/td][td]Antonio Gates, SD[/td][td]7[/td][td]TE3[/td][/tr][tr][td]35[/td][td]Fred Jackson, BUF[/td][td]8[/td][td]RB14[/td][/tr][tr][td]36[/td][td]Percy Harvin, MIN[/td][td]11[/td][td]WR13[/td][/tr][tr][td]37[/td][td]Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG[/td][td]11[/td][td]RB15[/td][/tr][tr][td]38[/td][td]Eli Manning, NYG[/td][td]11[/td][td]QB7[/td][/tr][tr][td]39[/td][td]Trent Richardson, CLE[/td][td]10[/td][td]RB16[/td][/tr][tr][td]40[/td][td]Michael Turner, ATL[/td][td]7[/td][td]RB17[/td][/tr][tr][td]41[/td][td]Frank Gore, SF[/td][td]9[/td][td]RB18[/td][/tr][tr][td]42[/td][td]Jordy Nelson, GB[/td][td]10[/td][td]WR14[/td][/tr][tr][td]43[/td][td]Darren Sproles, NO[/td][td]6[/td][td]RB19[/td][/tr][tr][td]44[/td][td]BenJarvus Green-Ellis, CIN[/td][td]8[/td][td]RB20[/td][/tr][tr][td]45[/td][td]Reggie Bush, MIA[/td][td]7[/td][td]RB21[/td][/tr][tr][td]46[/td][td]Tony Romo, DAL[/td][td]5[/td][td]QB8[/td][/tr][tr][td]47[/td][td]Miles Austin, DAL[/td][td]5[/td][td]WR15[/td][/tr][tr][td]48[/td][td]Steve Smith, CAR[/td][td]6[/td][td]WR16[/td][/tr][tr][td]49[/td][td]Antonio Brown, PIT[/td][td]4[/td][td]WR17[/td][/tr][tr][td]50[/td][td]Brandon Lloyd, NE[/td][td]9[/td][td]WR18[/td][/tr][tr][td]51[/td][td]Dez Bryant, DAL[/td][td]5[/td][td]WR19[/td][/tr][tr][td]52[/td][td]Marques Colston, NO[/td][td]6[/td][td]WR20[/td][/tr][tr][td]53[/td][td]Shonn Greene, NYJ[/td][td]9[/td][td]RB22[/td][/tr][tr][td]54[/td][td]Roy Helu, WAS[/td][td]10[/td][td]RB23[/td][/tr][tr][td]55[/td][td]Willis McGahee, DEN[/td][td]7[/td][td]RB24[/td][/tr][tr][td]56[/td][td]Jason Witten, DAL[/td][td]5[/td][td]TE4[/td][/tr][tr][td]57[/td][td]Peyton Manning, DEN[/td][td]7[/td][td]QB9[/td][/tr][tr][td]58[/td][td]Philip Rivers, SD[/td][td]7[/td][td]QB10[/td][/tr][tr][td]59[/td][td]Kenny Britt, TEN[/td][td]11[/td][td]WR21[/td][/tr][tr][td]60[/td][td]Jeremy Maclin, PHI[/td][td]7[/td][td]WR22[/td][/tr][tr][td]61[/td][td]Ben Tate, HOU[/td][td]8[/td][td]RB25[/td][/tr][tr][td]62[/td][td]Demaryius Thomas, DEN[/td][td]7[/td][td]WR23[/td][/tr][tr][td]63[/td][td]Eric Decker, DEN[/td][td]7[/td][td]WR24[/td][/tr][tr][td]64[/td][td]Vincent Jackson, TB[/td][td]5[/td][td]WR25[/td][/tr][tr][td]65[/td][td]Isaac Redman, PIT[/td][td]4[/td][td]RB26[/td][/tr][tr][td]66[/td][td]Doug Martin, TB[/td][td]5[/td][td]RB27[/td][/tr][tr][td]67[/td][td]Toby Gerhart, MIN[/td][td]11[/td][td]RB28[/td][/tr][tr][td]68[/td][td]Steve Johnson, BUF[/td][td]8[/td][td]WR26[/td][/tr][tr][td]69[/td][td]Dwayne Bowe, KC[/td][td]7[/td][td]WR27[/td][/tr][tr][td]70[/td][td]Mark Ingram, NO[/td][td]6[/td][td]RB29[/td][/tr][tr][td]71[/td][td]C.J. Spiller, BUF[/td][td]8[/td][td]RB30[/td][/tr][tr][td]72[/td][td]DeAngelo Williams, CAR[/td][td]6[/td][td]RB31[/td][/tr][tr][td]73[/td][td]Michael Bush, CHI[/td][td]6[/td][td]RB32[/td][/tr][tr][td]74[/td][td]Jermichael Finley, GB[/td][td]10[/td][td]TE5[/td][/tr][tr][td]75[/td][td]Matt Ryan, ATL[/td][td]7[/td][td]QB11[/td][/tr][tr][td]76[/td][td]Beanie Wells, ARI[/td][td]10[/td][td]RB33[/td][/tr][tr][td]77[/td][td]Aaron Hernandez, NE[/td][td]9[/td][td]TE6[/td][/tr][tr][td]78[/td][td]Vernon Davis, SF[/td][td]9[/td][td]TE7[/td][/tr][tr][td]79[/td][td]Jahvid Best, DET[/td][td]5[/td][td]RB34[/td][/tr][tr][td]80[/td][td]Pierre Garcon, WAS[/td][td]10[/td][td]WR28[/td][/tr][tr][td]81[/td][td]Peyton Hillis, KC[/td][td]7[/td][td]RB35[/td][/tr][tr][td]82[/td][td]Lance Moore, NO[/td][td]6[/td][td]WR29[/td][/tr][tr][td]83[/td][td]DeSean Jackson, PHI[/td][td]7[/td][td]WR30[/td][/tr][tr][td]84[/td][td]Torrey Smith, BAL[/td][td]8[/td][td]WR31[/td][/tr][tr][td]85[/td][td]Denarius Moore, OAK[/td][td]5[/td][td]WR32[/td][/tr][tr][td]86[/td][td]Donald Brown, IND[/td][td]4[/td][td]RB36[/td][/tr][tr][td]87[/td][td]Stevan Ridley, NE[/td][td]9[/td][td]RB37[/td][/tr][tr][td]88[/td][td]James Starks, GB[/td][td]10[/td][td]RB38[/td][/tr][tr][td]89[/td][td]Reggie Wayne, IND[/td][td]4[/td][td]WR33[/td][/tr][tr][td]90[/td][td]LeGarrette Blount, TB[/td][td]5[/td][td]RB39[/td][/tr][tr][td]91[/td][td]Jonathan Stewart, CAR[/td][td]6[/td][td]RB40[/td][/tr][tr][td]92[/td][td]Robert Meachem, SD[/td][td]7[/td][td]WR34[/td][/tr][tr][td]93[/td][td]Ben Roethlisberger, PIT[/td][td]4[/td][td]QB12[/td][/tr][tr][td]94[/td][td]Malcom Floyd, SD[/td][td]7[/td][td]WR35[/td][/tr][tr][td]95[/td][td]Darrius Heyward-Bey, OAK[/td][td]5[/td][td]WR36[/td][/tr][tr][td]96[/td][td]Michael Crabtree, SF[/td][td]9[/td][td]WR37[/td][/tr][tr][td]97[/td][td]Anquan Boldin, BAL[/td][td]8[/td][td]WR38[/td][/tr][tr][td]98[/td][td]Fred Davis, WAS[/td][td]10[/td][td]TE8[/td][/tr][tr][td]99[/td][td]Rueben Randle, NYG[/td][td]11[/td][td]WR39[/td][/tr][tr][td]100[/td][td]Matt Schaub, HOU[/td][td]8[/td][td]QB13[/td][/tr][tr][td]101[/td][td]Titus Young, DET[/td][td]5[/td][td]WR40[/td][/tr][tr][td]102[/td][td]Mike Goodson, OAK[/td][td]5[/td][td]RB41[/td][/tr][tr][td]103[/td][td]David Wilson, NYG[/td][td]11[/td][td]RB42[/td][/tr][tr][td]104[/td][td]Mike Williams, TB[/td][td]5[/td][td]WR41[/td][/tr][tr][td]105[/td][td]Tony Gonzalez, ATL[/td][td]7[/td][td]TE9[/td][/tr][tr][td]106[/td][td]Brandon Pettigrew, DET[/td][td]5[/td][td]TE10[/td][/tr][tr][td]107[/td][td]Pierre Thomas, NO[/td][td]6[/td][td]RB43[/td][/tr][tr][td]108[/td][td]Santonio Holmes, NYJ[/td][td]9[/td][td]WR42[/td][/tr][tr][td]109[/td][td]Sidney Rice, SEA[/td][td]11[/td][td]WR43[/td][/tr][tr][td]110[/td][td]Daniel Thomas, MIA[/td][td]7[/td][td]RB44[/td][/tr][tr][td]111[/td][td]Nate Washington, TEN[/td][td]11[/td][td]WR44[/td][/tr][tr][td]112[/td][td]Rashard Mendenhall, PIT[/td][td]4[/td][td]RB45[/td][/tr][tr][td]113[/td][td]Jay Cutler, CHI[/td][td]6[/td][td]QB14[/td][/tr][tr][td]114[/td][td]Robert Griffin III, WAS[/td][td]10[/td][td]QB15[/td][/tr][tr][td]115[/td][td]Mario Manningham, SF[/td][td]9[/td][td]WR45[/td][/tr][tr][td]116[/td][td]Randall Cobb, GB[/td][td]10[/td][td]WR46[/td][/tr][tr][td]117[/td][td]Jared Cook, TEN[/td][td]11[/td][td]TE11[/td][/tr][tr][td]118[/td][td]Jacob Tamme, DEN[/td][td]7[/td][td]TE12[/td][/tr][tr][td]119[/td][td]Mike Tolbert, CAR[/td][td]6[/td][td]RB46[/td][/tr][tr][td]120[/td][td]Justin Blackmon, JAC[/td][td]6[/td][td]WR47[/td][/tr][tr][td]121[/td][td]Laurent Robinson, JAC[/td][td]6[/td][td]WR48[/td][/tr][tr][td]122[/td][td]Greg Little, CLE[/td][td]10[/td][td]WR49[/td][/tr][tr][td]123[/td][td]Delone Carter, IND[/td][td]4[/td][td]RB47[/td][/tr][tr][td]124[/td][td]Evan Royster, WAS[/td][td]10[/td][td]RB48[/td][/tr][tr][td]125[/td][td]Carson Palmer, OAK[/td][td]5[/td][td]QB16[/td][/tr][tr][td]126[/td][td]Jacquizz Rodgers, ATL[/td][td]7[/td][td]RB49[/td][/tr][tr][td]127[/td][td]Nate Burleson, DET[/td][td]5[/td][td]WR50[/td][/tr][tr][td]128[/td][td]Josh Freeman, TB[/td][td]5[/td][td]QB17[/td][/tr][tr][td]129[/td][td]Ryan Williams, ARI[/td][td]10[/td][td]RB50[/td][/tr][tr][td]130[/td][td]Isaiah Pead, STL[/td][td]9[/td][td]RB51[/td][/tr][tr][td]131[/td][td]Kendall Wright, TEN[/td][td]11[/td][td]WR51[/td][/tr][tr][td]132[/td][td]Bernard Scott, CIN[/td][td]8[/td][td]RB52[/td][/tr][tr][td]133[/td][td]Jonathan Baldwin, KC[/td][td]7[/td][td]WR52[/td][/tr][tr][td]134[/td][td]Brent Celek, PHI[/td][td]7[/td][td]TE13[/td][/tr][tr][td]135[/td][td]Felix Jones, DAL[/td][td]5[/td][td]RB53[/td][/tr][tr][td]136[/td][td]Kevin Smith, DET[/td][td]5[/td][td]RB54[/td][/tr][tr][td]137[/td][td]Joseph Addai, NE[/td][td]9[/td][td]RB55[/td][/tr][tr][td]138[/td][td]Brandon Jacobs, SF[/td][td]9[/td][td]RB56[/td][/tr][tr][td]139[/td][td]Dion Lewis, PHI[/td][td]7[/td][td]RB57[/td][/tr][tr][td]140[/td][td]Michael Floyd, ARI[/td][td]10[/td][td]WR53[/td][/tr][tr][td]141[/td][td]49ers D/ST[/td][td]9[/td][td]DST1[/td][/tr][tr][td]142[/td][td]Bears D/ST[/td][td]6[/td][td]DST2[/td][/tr][tr][td]143[/td][td]Texans D/ST[/td][td]8[/td][td]DST3[/td][/tr][tr][td]144[/td][td]Ravens D/ST[/td][td]8[/td][td]DST4[/td][/tr][tr][td]145[/td][td]Eagles D/ST[/td][td]7[/td][td]DST5[/td][/tr][tr][td]146[/td][td]Lions D/ST[/td][td]5[/td][td]DST6[/td][/tr][tr][td]147[/td][td]Jets D/ST[/td][td]9[/td][td]DST7[/td][/tr][tr][td]148[/td][td]Packers D/ST[/td][td]10[/td][td]DST8[/td][/tr][tr][td]149[/td][td]Bills D/ST[/td][td]8[/td][td]DST9[/td][/tr][tr][td]150[/td][td]Cowboys D/ST[/td][td]5[/td][td]DST10[/td][/tr][tr][td]151[/td][td]Stephen Gostkowski, NE[/td][td]9[/td][td]K1[/td][/tr][tr][td]152[/td][td]Mason Crosby, GB[/td][td]10[/td][td]K2[/td][/tr][tr][td]153[/td][td]David Akers, SF[/td][td]9[/td][td]K3[/td][/tr][tr][td]154[/td][td]Sebastian Janikowski, OAK[/td][td]5[/td][td]K4[/td][/tr][tr][td]155[/td][td]Dan Bailey, DAL[/td][td]5[/td][td]K5[/td][/tr][tr][td]156[/td][td]Garrett Hartley, NO[/td][td]6[/td][td]K6[/td][/tr][tr][td]157[/td][td]Matt Prater, DEN[/td][td]7[/td][td]K7[/td][/tr][tr][td]158[/td][td]Rob Bironas, TEN[/td][td]11[/td][td]K8[/td][/tr][tr][td]159[/td][td]Neil Rackers, WAS[/td][td]10[/td][td]K9[/td][/tr][tr][td]160[/td][td]Matt Bryant, ATL[/td][td]7[/td][td]K10[/td][/tr][tr][td]161[/td][td]Alex Smith, SF[/td][td]9[/td][td]QB18[/td][/tr][tr][td]162[/td][td]Vincent Brown, SD[/td][td]7[/td][td]WR54[/td][/tr][tr][td]163[/td][td]Stephen Hill, NYJ[/td][td]9[/td][td]WR55[/td][/tr][tr][td]164[/td][td]Santana Moss, WAS[/td][td]10[/td][td]WR56[/td][/tr][tr][td]165[/td][td]Ryan Fitzpatrick, BUF[/td][td]8[/td][td]QB19[/td][/tr][tr][td]166[/td][td]Joe Flacco, BAL[/td][td]8[/td][td]QB20[/td][/tr][tr][td]167[/td][td]Andy Dalton, CIN[/td][td]8[/td][td]QB21[/td][/tr][tr][td]168[/td][td]Andrew Luck, IND[/td][td]4[/td][td]QB22[/td][/tr][tr][td]169[/td][td]Shane Vereen, NE[/td][td]9[/td][td]RB58[/td][/tr][tr][td]170[/td][td]Taiwan Jones, OAK[/td][td]5[/td][td]RB59[/td][/tr][tr][td]171[/td][td]Jermaine Gresham, CIN[/td][td]8[/td][td]TE14[/td][/tr][tr][td]172[/td][td]Dustin Keller, NYJ[/td][td]9[/td][td]TE15[/td][/tr][tr][td]173[/td][td]Coby Fleener, IND[/td][td]4[/td][td]TE16[/td][/tr][tr][td]174[/td][td]Kyle Rudolph, MIN[/td][td]11[/td][td]TE17[/td][/tr][tr][td]175[/td][td]Martellus Bennett, NYG[/td][td]11[/td][td]TE18[/td][/tr][tr][td]176[/td][td]Joe McKnight, NYJ[/td][td]9[/td][td]RB60[/td][/tr][tr][td]177[/td][td]Jonathan Dwyer, PIT[/td][td]4[/td][td]RB61[/td][/tr][tr][td]178[/td][td]Mikel Leshoure, DET[/td][td]5[/td][td]RB62[/td][/tr][tr][td]179[/td][td]Austin Collie, IND[/td][td]4[/td][td]WR57[/td][/tr][tr][td]180[/td][td]Danny Amendola, STL[/td][td]9[/td][td]WR58[/td][/tr][tr][td]181[/td][td]Ronnie Hillman, DEN[/td][td]7[/td][td]RB63[/td][/tr][tr][td]182[/td][td]Javon Ringer, TEN[/td][td]11[/td][td]RB64[/td][/tr][tr][td]183[/td][td]Danny Woodhead, NE[/td][td]9[/td][td]RB65[/td][/tr][tr][td]184[/td][td]Doug Baldwin, SEA[/td][td]11[/td][td]WR59[/td][/tr][tr][td]185[/td][td]Owen Daniels, HOU[/td][td]8[/td][td]TE19[/td][/tr][tr][td]186[/td][td]Randy Moss, SF[/td][td]9[/td][td]WR60[/td][/tr][tr][td]187[/td][td]Matt Flynn, SEA[/td][td]11[/td][td]QB23[/td][/tr][tr][td]188[/td][td]Leonard Hankerson, WAS[/td][td]10[/td][td]WR61[/td][/tr][tr][td]189[/td][td]Kellen Winslow, SEA[/td][td]11[/td][td]TE20[/td][/tr][tr][td]190[/td][td]Bernard Pierce, BAL[/td][td]8[/td][td]RB66[/td][/tr][tr][td]191[/td][td]James Jones, GB[/td][td]10[/td][td]WR62[/td][/tr][tr][td]192[/td][td]Robert Turbin, SEA[/td][td]11[/td][td]RB67[/td][/tr][tr][td]193[/td][td]Seahawks D/ST[/td][td]11[/td][td]DST11[/td][/tr][tr][td]194[/td][td]Steelers D/ST[/td][td]4[/td][td]DST12[/td][/tr][tr][td]195[/td][td]Alex Henery, PHI[/td][td]7[/td][td]K11[/td][/tr][tr][td]196[/td][td]Robbie Gould, CHI[/td][td]6[/td][td]K12[/td][/tr][tr][td]197[/td][td]David Nelson, BUF[/td][td]8[/td][td]WR63[/td][/tr][tr][td]198[/td][td]Brian Quick, STL[/td][td]9[/td][td]WR64[/td][/tr][tr][td]199[/td][td]Tim Hightower, WAS[/td][td]10[/td][td]RB68[/td][/tr][tr][td]200[/td][td]Montario Hardesty, CLE[/td][td]10[/td][td]RB69[/td][/tr][/table]
Rankings based on 10-team ESPN standard league with 16-player rosters, starting one quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers, one tight end, one flex (RB/WR/TE), a team defense and a kicker.

For those of us who play in 12-teamers here's a link for Evan Silva's (NBC Sports, RotoWorld columnist) Pre-Camp top 150:

LINK: http://www.rotoworld.com/.../Silvas-Pre-Camp-Top-150

While some of Silva's views are quite unorthodox, I agree with a lot of what he's saying. Come August, guys like Trent Richardson and Doug Martin are going to be drafted a lot sooner than their current pre-camp ADPs. 

It's quite early now, so a lot of ADPs and projections will change vastly as the season approaches. There will be players going down with injury in the pre-season plus suspensions being handed out (Dez Bryant, Marshawn Lynch) but in any case, it's time to start assessing the field.

I'd like to get a 12-team dynasty or redraft going for NT. Preferably I'd like the league to consist of fantasy vets....

Anyways, a couple websites I frequent for fantasy advice/stats.

rotoworld.com

footballoutsiders.com

 

[HEATHEN]

How to make VBD (Value-Based Drafting) work for you

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By Christopher Harris
ESPN.com

Remember when "targets" seemed like an exotic, over-fancy concept? I do. In the early 2000s, it was nearly impossible to find a list of the NFL pass-catchers who had the most footballs thrown their way. Stats like "yards after contact" and "yards at the catch" were once a glimmer in the wise pro football fan's eye, and now they're readily available and referred to ubiquitously. In fantasy circles, the same is becoming true for "Value-Based Drafting." In fact, when you Google that term, my name comes up on the first results page, so I guess I've done my part to popularize the concept. But make no mistake: The idea isn't mine. ProFootballReference.com has been using it for years, and they credit the wise souls at FootballGuys.com for its formulation.

Simply put, VBD developed as a way to retroactively compare the fantasy usefulness of players at different positions. It seeks to establish a "baseline" player at each position, and then measure the degree to which the best players at each position exceeded their respective baselines. It may have a fancy acronym, but it's the furthest thing imaginable from fancy. In fact, it's kind of a ramshackle, kludgy tool that may get more credit for prescience than it deserves. But I still really like it.

My friend and colleague Tristan Cockcroft and I recently had a revealing conversation about VBD. Tristan doesn't have a problem with my narrow definition of VBD above. What gets his blood boiling about the promulgation of VBD to every Tom, **** and Harry fantasy web site is the way in which some folks try to turn it into a finely-tuned predictive  tool. "Hey, the word 'drafting' is right there in the name!" goes the logic. "Of course  it's supposed to be a tool that tells you who to draft!" Except Tristan's right: It's really not. VBD's biggest sin is probably its name. Call it RPA (Retroactive Positional Analysis). Call it JHGWRGBSA (Just How Good Was Rob Gronkowski's Breakout Season, Anyway?). In my opinion, VBD exists to help us process the season that's just passed, so that we can philosophically (not statistically) implement the lessons of that season moving forward.
[h3]Defining VBD and Baseline Players[/h3]
How does VBD work? It's all about establishing that "baseline" player. Calculating the difference between each player's absolute fantasy point total and the point total of a baseline player at the same position gives us a relative number, which can then be compared across positions. Logically, this allows us to look at past-year performances, determining which positions tended to justify higher draft slots. After all, if we only judged by absolute point totals, we'd all be drafting quarterbacks in the first round, since for example in 2011, eight of the top 10 highest raw fantasy point totals were scored by QBs.

Intelligent folks have different ways of thinking about how to determine baselines for each position. Some like to think of baseline as "replacement-level," as we sometimes do in baseball, and in a 10-team league, for example, that leads us to the No. 11 QB as our baseline (since the top 10 would presumably start for each of the 10 fantasy squads). Frank DuPont (who wrote this e-book) figures baseline players by adding up the total number of man-games your fantasy league requires to fill out a full season at each position, then calculating the average number of players at each position it usually takes to produce that many man-games. FootballGuys prefers a "Top 100" methodology, whereby we establish how many players at each position tend to get drafted in the overall top 100 of your draft, and use that number as our baseline for each position. And there are several other approaches, often created by smart fantasy owners who simply tinker with stats inside their own leagues.

Personally, I tend toward the "10 Round" theory (which, to be fair, is simply an offshoot of the "Top 100" methodology): I look at the number of players at each position that typically gets drafted in the first 10 rounds of any league's draft, and however many QBs that is, that's my baseline QB. However many RBs that is, that's my baseline RB. And so on. So if you're in a 10-team league, you'd look at the top 100 players drafted. If you're in a 12-teamer, you'd look at the top 120. Why do I feel 10 rounds works well? To some extent, it's simply trial and error (me Excel pretty good). But philosophically, for me 10 rounds is the point where fantasy starting lineups are set, the top rookies and hyped sleepers we hope could work their way into being fantasy starters have been drafted, and we're now looking for backup (or "replacement") type players. Hey, I said it's kludgy, right?

The truth is, though, that any infighting about establishing the best baseline methodology feels a bit like a Talmudic inquisition, where the principals spend time parsing semicolons. I've run most conceptions of VBD baselines for multiple years' worth of data, and the ranks that result usually look quite similar. No matter how you do your baseline, there's room for you under my big VBD tent, because our results are going to bear far more than a passing resemblance to one another.
[h3]2011 VBD Results[/h3]
Here's what the top 20 raw fantasy point totals looked like at the end of last season:

[h3]2011 fantasy football top 20 scorers[/h3][table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Position[/th][th=""]Points[/th][th=""] [/th][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Position[/th][th=""]Points[/th][/tr][tr][td]1[/td][td]Aaron Rodgers[/td][td]QB[/td][td]385[/td][td] [/td][td]11[/td][td]Calvin Johnson[/td][td]WR[/td][td]254[/td][/tr][tr][td]2[/td][td]Drew Brees[/td][td]QB[/td][td]380[/td][td] [/td][td]12[/td][td]Maurice Jones-Drew[/td][td]RB[/td][td]249[/td][/tr][tr][td]3[/td][td]Tom Brady[/td][td]QB[/td][td]352[/td][td] [/td][td]13[/td][td]Philip Rivers[/td][td]QB[/td][td]246[/td][/tr][tr][td]4[/td][td]Cam Newton[/td][td]QB[/td][td]352[/td][td] [/td][td]14[/td][td]Arian Foster[/td][td]RB[/td][td]238[/td][/tr][tr][td]5[/td][td]Matthew Stafford[/td][td]QB[/td][td]333[/td][td] [/td][td]15[/td][td]Rob Gronkowski[/td][td]TE[/td][td]233[/td][/tr][tr][td]6[/td][td]Ray Rice[/td][td]RB[/td][td]283[/td][td] [/td][td]16[/td][td]Mark Sanchez[/td][td]QB[/td][td]227[/td][/tr][tr][td]7[/td][td]Eli Manning[/td][td]QB[/td][td]273[/td][td] [/td][td]17[/td][td]Michael Vick[/td][td]QB[/td][td]222[/td][/tr][tr][td]8[/td][td]LeSean McCoy[/td][td]RB[/td][td]270[/td][td] [/td][td]18[/td][td]Jordy Nelson[/td][td]WR[/td][td]210[/td][/tr][tr][td]9[/td][td]Tony Romo[/td][td]QB[/td][td]265[/td][td] [/td][td]19[/td][td]Ryan Fitzpatrick[/td][td]QB[/td][td]207[/td][/tr][tr][td]10[/td][td]Matt Ryan[/td][td]QB[/td][td]260[/td][td] [/td][td]20[/td][td]Ben Roethlisberger[/td][td]QB[/td][td]206[/td][/tr][/table]

Any fantasy veteran will tell you that any system that tells you Mark Sanchez retroactively should've been a second-round pick probably isn't a very good system. Because so many QBs are relatively similar to one another, there's far less scarcity among QBs than at other positions, so you can afford to wait on drafting your signal-caller, goes the logic. What VBD does is inject sanity when comparing players at different positions. For a 10-team league, recent history tells us that the positional breakdown in the first 10 rounds of the average draft goes like this: 16 QBs, 38 RBs, 33 WRs, 9 TEs and 4 D/STs. So for a 10-team league, our baselines for '11 will be the No. 16 QB (Joe Flacco), the No. 38 RB (Toby Gerhart), the No. 33 WR (Malcom Floyd), the No. 9 TE (Brent Celek) and the No. 4 D/ST (Seahawks). We'll subtract the raw fantasy point totals that each of these guys scored in '11 from the point totals of all the men above them at their respective positions. (For example, Aaron Rodgers' VBD total in a 10-team league is his own raw point total minus Flacco's raw point total.) And we wind up with this.

[h3]2011 fantasy football top 20 by VBD for 10-team leagues[/h3][table][tr][th=""]Rk[/th][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Position[/th][th=""]VBD[/th][th=""] [/th][th=""]Rk[/th][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Position[/th][th=""]VBD[/th][/tr][tr][td]1[/td][td]Ray Rice[/td][td]RB[/td][td]199[/td][td] [/td][td]11[/td][td]Rob Gronkowski[/td][td]TE[/td][td]128[/td][/tr][tr][td]2[/td][td]Aaron Rodgers[/td][td]QB[/td][td]190[/td][td] [/td][td]12[/td][td]Michael Turner[/td][td]RB[/td][td]119[/td][/tr][tr][td]3[/td][td]LeSean McCoy[/td][td]RB[/td][td]186[/td][td] [/td][td]13[/td][td]Marshawn Lynch[/td][td]RB[/td][td]119[/td][/tr][tr][td]4[/td][td]Drew Brees[/td][td]QB[/td][td]185[/td][td] [/td][td]14[/td][td]Jordy Nelson[/td][td]WR[/td][td]102[/td][/tr][tr][td]5[/td][td]Maurice Jones-Drew[/td][td]RB[/td][td]165[/td][td] [/td][td]15[/td][td]Wes Welker[/td][td]WR[/td][td]98[/td][/tr][tr][td]6[/td][td]Cam Newton[/td][td]QB[/td][td]157[/td][td] [/td][td]16[/td][td]Adrian Peterson[/td][td]RB[/td][td]97[/td][/tr][tr][td]7[/td][td]Tom Brady[/td][td]QB[/td][td]157[/td][td] [/td][td]17[/td][td]Darren Sproles[/td][td]RB[/td][td]92[/td][/tr][tr][td]8[/td][td]Arian Foster[/td][td]RB[/td][td]154[/td][td] [/td][td]18[/td][td]Victor Cruz[/td][td]WR[/td][td]90[/td][/tr][tr][td]9[/td][td]Calvin Johnson[/td][td]WR[/td][td]146[/td][td] [/td][td]19[/td][td]Ryan Mathews[/td][td]RB[/td][td]89[/td][/tr][tr][td]10[/td][td]Matthew Stafford[/td][td]QB[/td][td]138[/td][td] [/td][td]20[/td][td]Michael Bush[/td][td]RB[/td][td]86[/td][/tr][/table]

For comparison's sake, if you're in a 12-team league, the baselines are somewhat different (remember: I use the average number of players at each position drafted in the first 10 rounds, which in this case should total 120 players): 17 QBs, 43 RBs, 40 WRs, 12 TEs, 6 D/STs and 2 Ks. So for 12-team leagues, last season's most valuable 20 fantasy players were:

[h3]2011 fantasy football top 20 by VBD for 12-team leagues[/h3][table][tr][th=""]Rk[/th][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Position[/th][th=""]VBD[/th][th=""] [/th][th=""]Rk[/th][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Position[/th][th=""]VBD[/th][/tr][tr][td]1[/td][td]Ray Rice[/td][td]RB[/td][td]208[/td][td] [/td][td]11[/td][td]Rob Gronkowski[/td][td]TE[/td][td]143[/td][/tr][tr][td]2[/td][td]Aaron Rodgers[/td][td]QB[/td][td]195[/td][td] [/td][td]12[/td][td]Michael Turner[/td][td]RB[/td][td]128[/td][/tr][tr][td]3[/td][td]LeSean McCoy[/td][td]RB[/td][td]195[/td][td] [/td][td]13[/td][td]Marshawn Lynch[/td][td]RB[/td][td]128[/td][/tr][tr][td]4[/td][td]Drew Brees[/td][td]QB[/td][td]190[/td][td] [/td][td]14[/td][td]Jordy Nelson[/td][td]WR[/td][td]112[/td][/tr][tr][td]5[/td][td]Maurice Jones-Drew[/td][td]RB[/td][td]174[/td][td] [/td][td]15[/td][td]Wes Welker[/td][td]WR[/td][td]108[/td][/tr][tr][td]6[/td][td]Arian Foster[/td][td]RB[/td][td]163[/td][td] [/td][td]16[/td][td]Adrian Peterson[/td][td]RB[/td][td]106[/td][/tr][tr][td]7[/td][td]Cam Newton[/td][td]QB[/td][td]162[/td][td] [/td][td]17[/td][td]Darren Sproles[/td][td]RB[/td][td]101[/td][/tr][tr][td]8[/td][td]Tom Brady[/td][td]QB[/td][td]162[/td][td] [/td][td]18[/td][td]Victor Cruz[/td][td]WR[/td][td]100[/td][/tr][tr][td]9[/td][td]Calvin Johnson[/td][td]WR[/td][td]156[/td][td] [/td][td]19[/td][td]Ryan Mathews[/td][td]RB[/td][td]98[/td][/tr][tr][td]10[/td][td]Matthew Stafford[/td][td]QB[/td][td]143[/td][td] [/td][td]20[/td][td]Jimmy Graham[/td][td]TE[/td][td]97[/td][/tr][/table]

Clearly, these two sets of ranks for '11 are pretty darned close. In each case, we see five QBs (all in the top 10, which is unprecedented) and four wide receivers, with Michael Bush and Jimmy Graham trading places.
[h3]The Implications of VBD[/h3]
What conclusions can we draw from the '11 lists above? Not, I don't believe, that you suddenly must  have an elite QB, or that Rob Gronkowski is automatically a second-round fantasy pick. I honestly don't believe you can use VBD as that kind of projection tool. The NFL changes so much on a yearly basis -- because of scheme changes, because of injuries, because of sheer blind luck -- that assuming extraordinary seasons will repeat tends to be a losing game.

No, I think what this analysis does for us is assess where excellent seasons tend to fall, regardless of which player submits them. We've just seen Gronkowski and Graham produce two of the greatest TE fantasy seasons ever, with the main difference between them being Gronk scoring 18 TDs and Graham finding the end zone "only" 11 times. VBD tells me that the going rate for this kind of extraordinary TE production still  shouldn't be a first-round draft pick. And because I'm dubious that Gronkowski will approach 18 TDs in '12 -- it seems to me that a low-double-digit total is much more reasonable -- the earliest you should consider taking him or Graham is late in the second or early in the third of a 10-team draft.

Do I think Jordy Nelson or Victor Cruz will appear on my VBD top 20 list once the '12 season is over? I don't; I think each player was helped by unsustainable big-play rates in '11. But for me the larger VBD WR point from the past several seasons is how much of a "little brother" the WR position continues to be. Here's the number of RBs and WRs who've wound up in the VBD top 20 of a 10-team league in the past five years.

2011: 10 RB, 4 WR
2010: 15 RB, 2 WR
2009: 10 RB, 6 WR
2008: 12 RB, 3 WR
2007: 10 RB, 6 WR

To me, this trend means that other things being equal, I still want to sniff out the best early-round running backs rather than the best early-round wide receivers, if I can.

And finally, there's the question of what to do with quarterbacks like Rodgers, Brees, Newton, Brady and Stafford, who as a group outpaced their baseline QB (Flacco) by an unprecedented distance. In the past 10 years, there hadn't been a season where more than two quarterbacks wound up in the VBD top 10, and last year we had five? Perhaps this can be explained away by high-profile injuries (Peyton Manning  and Michael Vick come to mind) skewing the baseline downward, or perhaps this reflects a schism in the NFL, where play-calling grows ever more aggressive for teams with elite QBs and ever more conservative for teams without them. Perhaps the most fascinating storyline of '12 will be whether these top quarterbacks can continue to post running back-like VBD numbers. Based on recent history, I find the notion somewhat dubious.
[h3]Why VBD Isn't Great For Projections[/h3]
Any system that seeks to compare relative values between positions needs to start from a baseline of statistical projections, and NFL statistical projections are basically impossible to get right. (Take it from someone who helps create them for a living.) Yes, we can do a passable job with yardage totals for players who don't suffer unexpected injuries or depth-chart pratfalls. But so much of fantasy football hinges on touchdowns, and touchdowns are impossibly difficult to predict from season to season (let alone week to week).

For the sake of thoroughness, however, I'll plug ESPN's statistical projections for all NFL skill position players into the VBD spreadsheet, for a 10-team league, and show you what I get. Take this list with the world's largest grain of salt, because it's based in large part on trying to guess how many times players accidentally fall into the end zone.

[h3]2012 projected fantasy football top 20 by VBD[/h3][table][tr][th=""]Rk[/th][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Position[/th][th=""]VBD[/th][th=""] [/th][th=""]Rk[/th][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Position[/th][th=""]VBD[/th][/tr][tr][td]1[/td][td]Arian Foster[/td][td]RB[/td][td]176[/td][td] [/td][td]11[/td][td]Chris Johnson[/td][td]RB[/td][td]95[/td][/tr][tr][td]2[/td][td]Aaron Rodgers[/td][td]QB[/td][td]173[/td][td] [/td][td]12[/td][td]Ryan Mathews[/td][td]RB[/td][td]87[/td][/tr][tr][td]3[/td][td]Ray Rice[/td][td]RB[/td][td]158[/td][td] [/td][td]13[/td][td]Rob Gronkowski[/td][td]TE[/td][td]81[/td][/tr][tr][td]4[/td][td]Tom Brady[/td][td]QB[/td][td]146[/td][td] [/td][td]14[/td][td]Trent Richardson[/td][td]RB[/td][td]79[/td][/tr][tr][td]5[/td][td]Drew Brees[/td][td]QB[/td][td]137[/td][td] [/td][td]15[/td][td]Matt Forte[/td][td]RB[/td][td]79[/td][/tr][tr][td]6[/td][td]Matthew Stafford[/td][td]QB[/td][td]130[/td][td] [/td][td]16[/td][td]Jimmy Graham[/td][td]TE[/td][td]76[/td][/tr][tr][td]7[/td][td]LeSean McCoy[/td][td]RB[/td][td]125[/td][td] [/td][td]17[/td][td]Marshawn Lynch[/td][td]RB[/td][td]73[/td][/tr][tr][td]8[/td][td]Cam Newton[/td][td]QB[/td][td]117[/td][td] [/td][td]18[/td][td]Eli Manning[/td][td]QB[/td][td]71[/td][/tr][tr][td]9[/td][td]Maurice Jones-Drew[/td][td]RB[/td][td]109[/td][td] [/td][td]19[/td][td]Jamaal Charles[/td][td]RB[/td][td]66[/td][/tr][tr][td]10[/td][td]Calvin Johnson[/td][td]WR[/td][td]105[/td][td] [/td][td]20[/td][td]Larry Fitzgerald[/td][td]WR[/td][td]65[/td][/tr][/table]

As you can see, according to the letter of the VBD law, ESPN's projections think those same five QBs will continue to be awesome (and Eli Manning will join them), while Gronkowski and Graham will fly high and be justifiable as second-round picks in 10-team leagues, and the WR position may be deep but a bit flat near the top, after Megatron.

But of course, the rub is that while VBD is philosophically pretty good talking about, for instance, how many  running backs we might expect to wind up among the 20 most valuable players in fantasy football circa '12, it is basically useless at telling us specifically which running backs. VBD doesn't account for which players are major injury risks, or which could be subject to losing their starting gigs. It doesn't account for week-to-week safety and stability, or potential platoons. And these  are the things excellent fantasy owners (and analysts) must interpret year-round, which is why in the end projecting for the '12 season is as much art as science.
[h3]Conclusions[/h3]
Come draft time, when your turn to pick arrives, you'll be faced with your own personal pressure points. Your gut might tell you that drafting great running backs wins fantasy championships, but where's the breaking point at which it no longer makes sense to take a shaky RB? Where should you consider drafting a rock-star quarterback, or a proven and safe wide receiver, or a tight end coming off an all-time-great season? That's where an analysis of past seasons via the lens of VBD is helpful. For example, if I'm drafting late in the first round of any-sized league, I might look at Rob Gronkowski's massive '11 campaign and say, "Man, if he can even come close to that kind of production again, I'm totally justified in grabbing him right now!" But VBD tells me that isn't so. Can VBD by itself tell you which player to draft? No, because in the end all it's doing is folding together multi-positional data into one list. And because touchdown projections are so difficult to make, it tends to be a "garbage-in, garbage-out" situation: Your VBD ranks will only be as smart and accurate as your stat projections. My advice, therefore, is to heed the lessons of past seasons that VBD teaches us. "This is what a great tight end season looks like," VBD says. "When quarterbacks separate themselves from the pack, this is where you're justified in taking them. This is why you should still feel a default pull toward taking a running back." Those are useful lessons, but of course, they're just a few arrows in your fantasy football quiver.

 

[HEATHEN]

ESPN's Eric Karabell's top 200.

[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Bye[/th][th=""]Pos. Rank[/th][/tr][tr][td]1[/td][td]Arian Foster, HOU[/td][td]8[/td][td]RB1[/td][/tr][tr][td]2[/td][td]Ray Rice, BAL[/td][td]8[/td][td]RB2[/td][/tr][tr][td]3[/td][td]LeSean McCoy, PHI[/td][td]7[/td][td]RB3[/td][/tr][tr][td]4[/td][td]Calvin Johnson, DET[/td][td]5[/td][td]WR1[/td][/tr][tr][td]5[/td][td]Aaron Rodgers, GB[/td][td]10[/td][td]QB1[/td][/tr][tr][td]6[/td][td]Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC[/td][td]6[/td][td]RB4[/td][/tr][tr][td]7[/td][td]Ryan Mathews, SD[/td][td]7[/td][td]RB5[/td][/tr][tr][td]8[/td][td]Tom Brady, NE[/td][td]9[/td][td]QB2[/td][/tr][tr][td]9[/td][td]Larry Fitzgerald, ARI[/td][td]10[/td][td]WR2[/td][/tr][tr][td]10[/td][td]Chris Johnson, TEN[/td][td]11[/td][td]RB6[/td][/tr][tr][td]11[/td][td]Drew Brees, NO[/td][td]6[/td][td]QB3[/td][/tr][tr][td]12[/td][td]Marshawn Lynch, SEA[/td][td]11[/td][td]RB7[/td][/tr][tr][td]13[/td][td]Roddy White, ATL[/td][td]7[/td][td]WR3[/td][/tr][tr][td]14[/td][td]Greg Jennings, GB[/td][td]10[/td][td]WR4[/td][/tr][tr][td]15[/td][td]Matthew Stafford, DET[/td][td]5[/td][td]QB4[/td][/tr][tr][td]16[/td][td]Wes Welker, NE[/td][td]9[/td][td]WR5[/td][/tr][tr][td]17[/td][td]Andre Johnson, HOU[/td][td]8[/td][td]WR6[/td][/tr][tr][td]18[/td][td]Matt Forte, CHI[/td][td]6[/td][td]RB8[/td][/tr][tr][td]19[/td][td]DeMarco Murray, DAL[/td][td]5[/td][td]RB9[/td][/tr][tr][td]20[/td][td]Adrian Peterson, MIN[/td][td]11[/td][td]RB10[/td][/tr][tr][td]21[/td][td]Rob Gronkowski, NE[/td][td]9[/td][td]TE1[/td][/tr][tr][td]22[/td][td]Jimmy Graham, NO[/td][td]6[/td][td]TE2[/td][/tr][tr][td]23[/td][td]Mike Wallace, PIT[/td][td]4[/td][td]WR7[/td][/tr][tr][td]24[/td][td]A.J. Green, CIN[/td][td]8[/td][td]WR8[/td][/tr][tr][td]25[/td][td]Darren McFadden, OAK[/td][td]5[/td][td]RB11[/td][/tr][tr][td]26[/td][td]Jamaal Charles, KC[/td][td]7[/td][td]RB12[/td][/tr][tr][td]27[/td][td]Steven Jackson, STL[/td][td]9[/td][td]RB13[/td][/tr][tr][td]28[/td][td]Julio Jones, ATL[/td][td]7[/td][td]WR9[/td][/tr][tr][td]29[/td][td]Brandon Marshall, CHI[/td][td]6[/td][td]WR10[/td][/tr][tr][td]30[/td][td]Michael Turner, ATL[/td][td]7[/td][td]RB14[/td][/tr][tr][td]31[/td][td]Trent Richardson, CLE[/td][td]10[/td][td]RB15[/td][/tr][tr][td]32[/td][td]Cam Newton, CAR[/td][td]6[/td][td]QB5[/td][/tr][tr][td]33[/td][td]Hakeem Nicks, NYG[/td][td]11[/td][td]WR11[/td][/tr][tr][td]34[/td][td]Frank Gore, SF[/td][td]9[/td][td]RB16[/td][/tr][tr][td]35[/td][td]Victor Cruz, NYG[/td][td]11[/td][td]WR12[/td][/tr][tr][td]36[/td][td]Fred Jackson, BUF[/td][td]8[/td][td]RB17[/td][/tr][tr][td]37[/td][td]Michael Vick, PHI[/td][td]7[/td][td]QB6[/td][/tr][tr][td]38[/td][td]Steve Smith, CAR[/td][td]6[/td][td]WR13[/td][/tr][tr][td]39[/td][td]Eli Manning, NYG[/td][td]11[/td][td]QB7[/td][/tr][tr][td]40[/td][td]Jordy Nelson, GB[/td][td]10[/td][td]WR14[/td][/tr][tr][td]41[/td][td]Marques Colston, NO[/td][td]6[/td][td]WR15[/td][/tr][tr][td]42[/td][td]Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG[/td][td]11[/td][td]RB18[/td][/tr][tr][td]43[/td][td]Dez Bryant, DAL[/td][td]5[/td][td]WR16[/td][/tr][tr][td]44[/td][td]Tony Romo, DAL[/td][td]5[/td][td]QB8[/td][/tr][tr][td]45[/td][td]Darren Sproles, NO[/td][td]6[/td][td]RB19[/td][/tr][tr][td]46[/td][td]Philip Rivers, SD[/td][td]7[/td][td]QB9[/td][/tr][tr][td]47[/td][td]Miles Austin, DAL[/td][td]5[/td][td]WR17[/td][/tr][tr][td]48[/td][td]Willis McGahee, DEN[/td][td]7[/td][td]RB20[/td][/tr][tr][td]49[/td][td]Percy Harvin, MIN[/td][td]11[/td][td]WR18[/td][/tr][tr][td]50[/td][td]Reggie Bush, MIA[/td][td]7[/td][td]RB21[/td][/tr][tr][td]51[/td][td]Roy Helu, WAS[/td][td]10[/td][td]RB22[/td][/tr][tr][td]52[/td][td]Dwayne Bowe, KC[/td][td]7[/td][td]WR19[/td][/tr][tr][td]53[/td][td]Beanie Wells, ARI[/td][td]10[/td][td]RB23[/td][/tr][tr][td]54[/td][td]Vincent Jackson, TB[/td][td]5[/td][td]WR20[/td][/tr][tr][td]55[/td][td]Antonio Gates, SD[/td][td]7[/td][td]TE3[/td][/tr][tr][td]56[/td][td]Jonathan Stewart, CAR[/td][td]6[/td][td]RB24[/td][/tr][tr][td]57[/td][td]Shonn Greene, NYJ[/td][td]9[/td][td]RB25[/td][/tr][tr][td]58[/td][td]Jeremy Maclin, PHI[/td][td]7[/td][td]WR21[/td][/tr][tr][td]59[/td][td]Ben Tate, HOU[/td][td]8[/td][td]RB26[/td][/tr][tr][td]60[/td][td]Peyton Manning, DEN[/td][td]7[/td][td]QB10[/td][/tr][tr][td]61[/td][td]Steve Johnson, BUF[/td][td]8[/td][td]WR22[/td][/tr][tr][td]62[/td][td]Vernon Davis, SF[/td][td]9[/td][td]TE4[/td][/tr][tr][td]63[/td][td]Brandon Lloyd, NE[/td][td]9[/td][td]WR23[/td][/tr][tr][td]64[/td][td]Matt Ryan, ATL[/td][td]7[/td][td]QB11[/td][/tr][tr][td]65[/td][td]Demaryius Thomas, DEN[/td][td]7[/td][td]WR24[/td][/tr][tr][td]66[/td][td]BenJarvus Green-Ellis, CIN[/td][td]8[/td][td]RB27[/td][/tr][tr][td]67[/td][td]Antonio Brown, PIT[/td][td]4[/td][td]WR25[/td][/tr][tr][td]68[/td][td]Isaac Redman, PIT[/td][td]4[/td][td]RB28[/td][/tr][tr][td]69[/td][td]Kenny Britt, TEN[/td][td]11[/td][td]WR26[/td][/tr][tr][td]70[/td][td]Michael Bush, CHI[/td][td]6[/td][td]RB29[/td][/tr][tr][td]71[/td][td]Ben Roethlisberger, PIT[/td][td]4[/td][td]QB12[/td][/tr][tr][td]72[/td][td]Torrey Smith, BAL[/td][td]8[/td][td]WR27[/td][/tr][tr][td]73[/td][td]DeAngelo Williams, CAR[/td][td]6[/td][td]RB30[/td][/tr][tr][td]74[/td][td]Jason Witten, DAL[/td][td]5[/td][td]TE5[/td][/tr][tr][td]75[/td][td]Jahvid Best, DET[/td][td]5[/td][td]RB31[/td][/tr][tr][td]76[/td][td]DeSean Jackson, PHI[/td][td]7[/td][td]WR28[/td][/tr][tr][td]77[/td][td]Eric Decker, DEN[/td][td]7[/td][td]WR29[/td][/tr][tr][td]78[/td][td]Pierre Garcon, WAS[/td][td]10[/td][td]WR30[/td][/tr][tr][td]79[/td][td]Doug Martin, TB[/td][td]5[/td][td]RB32[/td][/tr][tr][td]80[/td][td]Matt Schaub, HOU[/td][td]8[/td][td]QB13[/td][/tr][tr][td]81[/td][td]Peyton Hillis, KC[/td][td]7[/td][td]RB33[/td][/tr][tr][td]82[/td][td]Stevan Ridley, NE[/td][td]9[/td][td]RB34[/td][/tr][tr][td]83[/td][td]Robert Meachem, SD[/td][td]7[/td][td]WR31[/td][/tr][tr][td]84[/td][td]Mark Ingram, NO[/td][td]6[/td][td]RB35[/td][/tr][tr][td]85[/td][td]Toby Gerhart, MIN[/td][td]11[/td][td]RB36[/td][/tr][tr][td]86[/td][td]Malcom Floyd, SD[/td][td]7[/td][td]WR32[/td][/tr][tr][td]87[/td][td]Aaron Hernandez, NE[/td][td]9[/td][td]TE6[/td][/tr][tr][td]88[/td][td]Lance Moore, NO[/td][td]6[/td][td]WR33[/td][/tr][tr][td]89[/td][td]Donald Brown, IND[/td][td]4[/td][td]RB37[/td][/tr][tr][td]90[/td][td]Jermichael Finley, GB[/td][td]10[/td][td]TE7[/td][/tr][tr][td]91[/td][td]Tony Gonzalez, ATL[/td][td]7[/td][td]TE8[/td][/tr][tr][td]92[/td][td]C.J. Spiller, BUF[/td][td]8[/td][td]RB38[/td][/tr][tr][td]93[/td][td]Michael Crabtree, SF[/td][td]9[/td][td]WR34[/td][/tr][tr][td]94[/td][td]Reggie Wayne, IND[/td][td]4[/td][td]WR35[/td][/tr][tr][td]95[/td][td]Denarius Moore, OAK[/td][td]5[/td][td]WR36[/td][/tr][tr][td]96[/td][td]Titus Young, DET[/td][td]5[/td][td]WR37[/td][/tr][tr][td]97[/td][td]Santonio Holmes, NYJ[/td][td]9[/td][td]WR38[/td][/tr][tr][td]98[/td][td]James Starks, GB[/td][td]10[/td][td]RB39[/td][/tr][tr][td]99[/td][td]David Wilson, NYG[/td][td]11[/td][td]RB40[/td][/tr][tr][td]100[/td][td]Felix Jones, DAL[/td][td]5[/td][td]RB41[/td][/tr][tr][td]101[/td][td]Anquan Boldin, BAL[/td][td]8[/td][td]WR39[/td][/tr][tr][td]102[/td][td]Fred Davis, WAS[/td][td]10[/td][td]TE9[/td][/tr][tr][td]103[/td][td]Daniel Thomas, MIA[/td][td]7[/td][td]RB42[/td][/tr][tr][td]104[/td][td]Sidney Rice, SEA[/td][td]11[/td][td]WR40[/td][/tr][tr][td]105[/td][td]49ers D/ST[/td][td]9[/td][td]DST1[/td][/tr][tr][td]106[/td][td]Jay Cutler, CHI[/td][td]6[/td][td]QB14[/td][/tr][tr][td]107[/td][td]Darrius Heyward-Bey, OAK[/td][td]5[/td][td]WR41[/td][/tr][tr][td]108[/td][td]Brandon Pettigrew, DET[/td][td]5[/td][td]TE10[/td][/tr][tr][td]109[/td][td]Bernard Scott, CIN[/td][td]8[/td][td]RB43[/td][/tr][tr][td]110[/td][td]Pierre Thomas, NO[/td][td]6[/td][td]RB44[/td][/tr][tr][td]111[/td][td]Mike Williams, TB[/td][td]5[/td][td]WR42[/td][/tr][tr][td]112[/td][td]LeGarrette Blount, TB[/td][td]5[/td][td]RB45[/td][/tr][tr][td]113[/td][td]Joseph Addai, NE[/td][td]9[/td][td]RB46[/td][/tr][tr][td]114[/td][td]Josh Freeman, TB[/td][td]5[/td][td]QB15[/td][/tr][tr][td]115[/td][td]Leonard Hankerson, WAS[/td][td]10[/td][td]WR43[/td][/tr][tr][td]116[/td][td]Texans D/ST[/td][td]8[/td][td]DST2[/td][/tr][tr][td]117[/td][td]Laurent Robinson, JAC[/td][td]6[/td][td]WR44[/td][/tr][tr][td]118[/td][td]Robert Griffin III, WAS[/td][td]10[/td][td]QB16[/td][/tr][tr][td]119[/td][td]Jared Cook, TEN[/td][td]11[/td][td]TE11[/td][/tr][tr][td]120[/td][td]Mike Tolbert, CAR[/td][td]6[/td][td]RB47[/td][/tr][tr][td]121[/td][td]Mario Manningham, SF[/td][td]9[/td][td]WR45[/td][/tr][tr][td]122[/td][td]Ravens D/ST[/td][td]8[/td][td]DST3[/td][/tr][tr][td]123[/td][td]Nate Washington, TEN[/td][td]11[/td][td]WR46[/td][/tr][tr][td]124[/td][td]Rueben Randle, NYG[/td][td]11[/td][td]WR47[/td][/tr][tr][td]125[/td][td]Justin Blackmon, JAC[/td][td]6[/td][td]WR48[/td][/tr][tr][td]126[/td][td]Bears D/ST[/td][td]6[/td][td]DST4[/td][/tr][tr][td]127[/td][td]Kevin Smith, DET[/td][td]5[/td][td]RB48[/td][/tr][tr][td]128[/td][td]Andy Dalton, CIN[/td][td]8[/td][td]QB17[/td][/tr][tr][td]129[/td][td]Michael Floyd, ARI[/td][td]10[/td][td]WR49[/td][/tr][tr][td]130[/td][td]Nate Burleson, DET[/td][td]5[/td][td]WR50[/td][/tr][tr][td]131[/td][td]Eagles D/ST[/td][td]7[/td][td]DST5[/td][/tr][tr][td]132[/td][td]Andrew Luck, IND[/td][td]4[/td][td]QB18[/td][/tr][tr][td]133[/td][td]Isaiah Pead, STL[/td][td]9[/td][td]RB49[/td][/tr][tr][td]134[/td][td]Jonathan Baldwin, KC[/td][td]7[/td][td]WR51[/td][/tr][tr][td]135[/td][td]Steelers D/ST[/td][td]4[/td][td]DST6[/td][/tr][tr][td]136[/td][td]Ryan Williams, ARI[/td][td]10[/td][td]RB50[/td][/tr][tr][td]137[/td][td]Brandon LaFell, CAR[/td][td]6[/td][td]WR52[/td][/tr][tr][td]138[/td][td]Rashard Mendenhall, PIT[/td][td]4[/td][td]RB51[/td][/tr][tr][td]139[/td][td]Jets D/ST[/td][td]9[/td][td]DST7[/td][/tr][tr][td]140[/td][td]Bernard Pierce, BAL[/td][td]8[/td][td]RB52[/td][/tr][tr][td]141[/td][td]James Jones, GB[/td][td]10[/td][td]WR53[/td][/tr][tr][td]142[/td][td]Joe Flacco, BAL[/td][td]8[/td][td]QB19[/td][/tr][tr][td]143[/td][td]Seahawks D/ST[/td][td]11[/td][td]DST8[/td][/tr][tr][td]144[/td][td]Alex Smith, SF[/td][td]9[/td][td]QB20[/td][/tr][tr][td]145[/td][td]Carson Palmer, OAK[/td][td]5[/td][td]QB21[/td][/tr][tr][td]146[/td][td]Matt Flynn, SEA[/td][td]11[/td][td]QB22[/td][/tr][tr][td]147[/td][td]Jacob Tamme, DEN[/td][td]7[/td][td]TE12[/td][/tr][tr][td]148[/td][td]Sam Bradford, STL[/td][td]9[/td][td]QB23[/td][/tr][tr][td]149[/td][td]Lions D/ST[/td][td]5[/td][td]DST9[/td][/tr][tr][td]150[/td][td]Falcons D/ST[/td][td]7[/td][td]DST10[/td][/tr][tr][td]151[/td][td]Stephen Gostkowski, NE[/td][td]9[/td][td]K1[/td][/tr][tr][td]152[/td][td]David Akers, SF[/td][td]9[/td][td]K2[/td][/tr][tr][td]153[/td][td]Mason Crosby, GB[/td][td]10[/td][td]K3[/td][/tr][tr][td]154[/td][td]Garrett Hartley, NO[/td][td]6[/td][td]K4[/td][/tr][tr][td]155[/td][td]Dan Bailey, DAL[/td][td]5[/td][td]K5[/td][/tr][tr][td]156[/td][td]Sebastian Janikowski, OAK[/td][td]5[/td][td]K6[/td][/tr][tr][td]157[/td][td]Matt Prater, DEN[/td][td]7[/td][td]K7[/td][/tr][tr][td]158[/td][td]Rob Bironas, TEN[/td][td]11[/td][td]K8[/td][/tr][tr][td]159[/td][td]Robbie Gould, CHI[/td][td]6[/td][td]K9[/td][/tr][tr][td]160[/td][td]Matt Bryant, ATL[/td][td]7[/td][td]K10[/td][/tr][tr][td]161[/td][td]Brent Celek, PHI[/td][td]7[/td][td]TE13[/td][/tr][tr][td]162[/td][td]Ryan Fitzpatrick, BUF[/td][td]8[/td][td]QB24[/td][/tr][tr][td]163[/td][td]Owen Daniels, HOU[/td][td]8[/td][td]TE14[/td][/tr][tr][td]164[/td][td]Mike Goodson, OAK[/td][td]5[/td][td]RB53[/td][/tr][tr][td]165[/td][td]Jonathan Dwyer, PIT[/td][td]4[/td][td]RB54[/td][/tr][tr][td]166[/td][td]Shane Vereen, NE[/td][td]9[/td][td]RB55[/td][/tr][tr][td]167[/td][td]Greg Little, CLE[/td][td]10[/td][td]WR54[/td][/tr][tr][td]168[/td][td]Andre Caldwell, DEN[/td][td]7[/td][td]WR55[/td][/tr][tr][td]169[/td][td]Randall Cobb, GB[/td][td]10[/td][td]WR56[/td][/tr][tr][td]170[/td][td]Jacoby Ford, OAK[/td][td]5[/td][td]WR57[/td][/tr][tr][td]171[/td][td]Vincent Brown, SD[/td][td]7[/td][td]WR58[/td][/tr][tr][td]172[/td][td]Jacquizz Rodgers, ATL[/td][td]7[/td][td]RB56[/td][/tr][tr][td]173[/td][td]Mikel Leshoure, DET[/td][td]5[/td][td]RB57[/td][/tr][tr][td]174[/td][td]Alex Green, GB[/td][td]10[/td][td]RB58[/td][/tr][tr][td]175[/td][td]Randy Moss, SF[/td][td]9[/td][td]WR59[/td][/tr][tr][td]176[/td][td]Ronnie Hillman, DEN[/td][td]7[/td][td]RB59[/td][/tr][tr][td]177[/td][td]Brian Quick, STL[/td][td]9[/td][td]WR60[/td][/tr][tr][td]178[/td][td]Brandon Jacobs, SF[/td][td]9[/td][td]RB60[/td][/tr][tr][td]179[/td][td]Dustin Keller, NYJ[/td][td]9[/td][td]TE15[/td][/tr][tr][td]180[/td][td]Kendall Hunter, SF[/td][td]9[/td][td]RB61[/td][/tr][tr][td]181[/td][td]Kellen Winslow, SEA[/td][td]11[/td][td]TE16[/td][/tr][tr][td]182[/td][td]Delone Carter, IND[/td][td]4[/td][td]RB62[/td][/tr][tr][td]183[/td][td]Evan Royster, WAS[/td][td]10[/td][td]RB63[/td][/tr][tr][td]184[/td][td]Ryan Grant, FA[/td][td]--[/td][td]RB64[/td][/tr][tr][td]185[/td][td]Le'Ron McClain, SD[/td][td]7[/td][td]RB65[/td][/tr][tr][td]186[/td][td]Danny Amendola, STL[/td][td]9[/td][td]WR61[/td][/tr][tr][td]187[/td][td]Davone Bess, MIA[/td][td]7[/td][td]WR62[/td][/tr][tr][td]188[/td][td]Jermaine Gresham, CIN[/td][td]8[/td][td]TE17[/td][/tr][tr][td]189[/td][td]Plaxico Burress, FA[/td][td]--[/td][td]WR63[/td][/tr][tr][td]190[/td][td]Kendall Wright, TEN[/td][td]11[/td][td]WR64[/td][/tr][tr][td]191[/td][td]Taiwan Jones, OAK[/td][td]5[/td][td]RB66[/td][/tr][tr][td]192[/td][td]Jason Snelling, ATL[/td][td]7[/td][td]RB67[/td][/tr][tr][td]193[/td][td]Coby Fleener, IND[/td][td]4[/td][td]TE18[/td][/tr][tr][td]194[/td][td]Lamar Miller, MIA[/td][td]7[/td][td]RB68[/td][/tr][tr][td]195[/td][td]Eddie Royal, SD[/td][td]7[/td][td]WR65[/td][/tr][tr][td]196[/td][td]Alshon Jeffery, CHI[/td][td]6[/td][td]WR66[/td][/tr][tr][td]197[/td][td]Austin Collie, IND[/td][td]4[/td][td]WR67[/td][/tr][tr][td]198[/td][td]Cedric Benson, FA[/td][td]--[/td][td]RB69[/td][/tr][tr][td]199[/td][td]Martellus Bennett, NYG[/td][td]11[/td][td]TE19[/td][/tr][tr][td]200[/td][td]Brian Hartline, MIA[/td][td]7[/td][td]WR68[/td][/tr][/table]
Rankings based on 10-team ESPN standard league with 16-player rosters, starting one quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers, one tight end, one flex (RB/WR/TE), a team defense and a kicker.

As you can see a lot of these "experts" have a lot of differing opinions. I'll say this though, come August, Trent Richardson is going in the 1st in 12-teamers and late 1st, early 2nd. Doug Martin ADP is going to be skyrocketing. While others such as Adrian Peterson, Frank Gore, Michael Turner and Fred Jackson are going to see their stock drop a little. 

Look for rookies to be a hot commodity come draft day. Guys like RG3, Trent, Martin, David Wilson, and Ronnie Hillman (amongst others) will most probably be rostered across a majority of leagues. 

 

[stringer bell 32]

<--- Will definitely be going QB in the first round...Brees, Brady or Rodgers

 

[Deleted member 37754]

How leagues and RBs are used now a days... If I have a top pick I am going QB. Middle or bottom then I'll see what's on the board. Looking forward to the two drafts I have.

 

[ogbobbyjohnson773]

Welp, won't be getting Cam for a dollar this year.

 

[casperjr]

Op fix your post all I see is white lines

 

[jus loungin]

QB is deep this year. I never take QB in the first round and probably won't this year. I might just wait it out for someone like Romo, who always goes slept on.

 

[bearclawd]

Shady in the first round.

 

[imnacho]

Pumped for the draft!

 

[hymen man]

Rice or Foster if I got first pick, no question.

 

[imasoleman18]

will join any free espn league

 

[parada45]

Any sleepers?

 

[fraij da 5 11]

Anyone got any cool league Ideas they're doing this year? We're more than doubling our buy in so its about to get real in my Alumni league. Getting a trophy and everything

 

[bearclawd]

Anyone got any cool league Ideas they're doing this year? We're more than doubling our buy in so its about to get real in my Alumni league. Getting a trophy and everything

What's your buy-in now? First time doing one with my friends for $10 because they're cheap. |I

 

[fraij da 5 11]

What's your buy-in now? First time doing one with my friends for $10 because they're cheap. |I

Entry before was $20 and is being upped to $50. We have 12 members.

Likely buying this trophy and having it engraved annually...

 

[casperjr]

Can't see myself doing more then 1 snake draft this year after doing a money draft last year

 

[dland24]

Do you guys really believe that DeMarco Murray will be a top fantasy player this year? I see him REALLY high in a lot of lists. I have to decide if I am going to keep him or Steve Smith.

 

[flyerthandelta]

Don't sleep on Trent Richardson and Darren Sprioles

 

[HEATHEN]

Don't sleep on Trent Richardson and Darren Sprioles

trust me no one is sleeping on either of those guys.

Trent Richardsons ADP is starting to creep up towards late 2nd, early 3rd...

By August he'll be a late 1st early 2nd round pick.

Doug Martin will be a 3rd round pick.

And anyone sleeping on Sproles after seeing how integral he is to the Saints offense is out of their mind, IMHO he's the ONLY Saints RB rosterable in 10 team leagues. Ingram is nothing but a late round filler flier.


In PPR he's GOLD.


Want a sleeper pick tho fellas? David Wilson, GUARANTEE he supplants Ahmad Bradshaw by fantasy playoff time as the Giants starter.

 

[HEATHEN]

Do you guys really believe that DeMarco Murray will be a top fantasy player this year? I see him REALLY high in a lot of lists. I have to decide if I am going to keep him or Steve Smith.

Yes, he has all the elements of a top-flight RB, and IMHO he easily warrants his current late 2nd round early 3rd round ADP.

He has the potential to be a top-5 RB this season. I highly doubt it however only because he's so injury prone.

Here's his injury history

2007 - Dislocated Kneecap (college)
2008 - Hamstring injury caused him to miss time (college)
2009 - Broke records I believe (college
2010 - Was questionable from a knee injury for a lot of games (college)
2011 - Broken Ankle after 160ish carries (pros)


Courtesy Holben, Rotoworld.com forum member....


My point is if you take DeMarco you MUST, absolutely MUST get Felix Jones as a handcuff.

 

[Retroballer]

Anyone got any cool league Ideas they're doing this year? We're more than doubling our buy in so its about to get real in my Alumni league. Getting a trophy and everything

**birdman handrub**

 

[651akathepaul]

Perfect year for me to have a lower draft pick. I'm definitely taking AP with my first pick in the 2nd round.

 

[grusumm18]

Can't see myself doing more then 1 snake draft this year after doing a money draft last year

havent done snake in years...dont see why anyone would unless you're playing in a league full of fish

 

[HEATHEN]

Perfect year for me to have a lower draft pick. I'm definitely taking AP with my first pick in the 2nd round.

I'd advise against that heavily.

I'd rather Trent, Mathews (who should be gone in the 1st), Forte, Murray, DMC, or even Jamaal Charles (who has had significantly more time than Peterson to recover from his less severe ACL tear) before AP.


AP isn't even ready to train yet, most likely he'll be sitting according to reports.

ESPN 1500 Twin Cities' Tom Pelissero believes the "smart money" is on Adrian Peterson spending the first two weeks of training camp on active/PUP.
Pelissero suggests Peterson could be activated after the Vikings' August 10 preseason opener. A.P. figures to be active for Week 1, but the coaching staff will take things slowly with him throughout camp, and Toby Gerhart is expected to be the Opening Day starter. The latest ADP data has Peterson coming off the board at pick 2.7 in standard drafts. It's a bit rich for our tastes. Jul 18 - 11:05 PM


It's a bit rich for my taste as well....

The only reason his ADP is as high as it is is because casual fantasy players do not completely understand the gravity of his injury. He tore both his ACL and MCL, late season. A lot of his explosiveness is going to be gone. His straight line speed seems to be coming back as I heard reports that he was outright beating Percy Harvin in uphill races (i'm very skeptical of those reports, but I'll give 'em the benefit of the doubt. In any case his ability to change direction on a dime is in serious question.

I know, I know "He's AP". Doesn't matter one bit to me. Show me a list of guys whom have come back strong the season after a torn ACL or MCL (let alone both).

I'm staying away unless he falls in my lap 3rd round (and that depends on who else is left at RB).

Oh and let's not forget that he caught that resisting arrest charge, and with commish Goodell you don't need to be charged with a crime to violate the NFL's conduct policy. He may get a slap on the wrist, he might be suspended (doubt it), but until I hear more about his progress (both health wise and as far as the case goes) I'm staying away, far away.