(from ESPN)
Most overrated Eastern Conference team: New York Knicks
I've written at length about why SCHOENE is so down on the Knicks. In reality, the 37-45 projection is something of a worst-case scenario for New York. I'm expecting something like 45 wins -- which would still be a drop of nine from last year's total of 54. There's actually plenty of precedent for that kind of slide.
Since the ABA-NBA merger, five other teams have gone from a stretch of consecutive years between 40 and 45 wins (projecting lockout campaigns to full seasons) to winning between 52 and 56 games in Year 3. Of those, three won 45 games or fewer in Year 4, two of which could prove similar to the Knicks. The 1991-92 Houston Rockets went from 52 wins to 42 and missed the playoffs, costing Don Chaney his job. And the 1998-99 Phoenix Suns, who had gone 56-26 the year before, won the equivalent of 44 games after a post-lockout makeover, finishing with the sixth seed.
Most overrated Western Conference team: Golden State Warriors
ESPN's #NBArank project this preseason helped showcase the irrational exuberance that developed around the Warriors in the wake of their playoff run. Six Warriors rated among the panel's top 76 players, including three who had below-average PERs in 2012-13: Andrew Bogut (13.
, Klay Thompson (12.7) and Harrison Barnes (11.0). In the playoffs, Bogut (16.1) and Barnes (13.
were far better, which is sort of the point.
Elite defense makes Bogut an above-average center when healthy (a major caveat, as noted in last week's extension analysis), and Thompson (who scored a career-high 38 points in last night's encouraging blowout over the Los Angeles Lakers) and Barnes also are good defenders, but all three of them seem to be benefiting from a playoff halo effect, as is the team as a whole. Assuming the 82-game sample of the regular season is more telling leads to a more pessimistic analysis of Golden State -- maybe not quite as dire as SCHOENE's 42-40 projection, but more conservative than the conventional wisdom that the Warriors are a championship threat.
Most overrated player: Kyrie Irving, Cleveland Cavaliers
The #NBArank panel placed Irving eighth in the league this season, and though Irving undeniably has that kind of talent, putting him in the top 10 is premature because of defense and durability. Last season, the Cavaliers -- never a defensive juggernaut under the best of circumstances -- allowed 1.7 more points per 100 possessions with Irving on the floor, per NBA.com/Stats. Adjusting for his teammates, xRAPM (a version of adjusted plus-minus) found that Irving gave back two-thirds of his offensive value at the defensive end, making him only a slightly above-average contributor.
Of course, Irving doesn't have any value when he's on the bench, and he has missed a combined 38 games in his first two NBA seasons -- that after being limited to 11 games in his lone college campaign. To justify a top-10 ranking, Irving will have to stay healthy and effective at both ends of the floor.
Most overrated newcomer: Marco Belinelli, San Antonio Spurs
As an international player who combines 3-point range with playmaking flair, Belinelli seemed Spurs-y before he signed with San Antonio as a free agent this summer. There's just one catch: He's not actually all that good. Belinelli's career PER is 11.6, and last season in Chicago he slipped to 10.4 -- barely better than replacement level. His strong play in the postseason came only after he was essentially benched in Game 4 versus Brooklyn, with Luol Deng's injury opening up playing time.
Though Belinelli has shot the 3-ball much better in the past, last year's tumble to 35.7 percent accuracy dragged his true shooting percentage far below league average. Belinelli might be a defensive upgrade over predecessor Gary Neal, but Neal is the more skilled offensive player.
Most overrated coach: Doc Rivers, Los Angeles Clippers
Fully half of ESPN's analysts picked the Clippers to win the Western Conference, and while that partially reflects the additions of new starters Jared Dudley and J.J. Redick, it's primarily a vote of confidence in their change on the sideline. Don't get me wrong: Going from Vinny Del Negro to Rivers on the sideline is a tactical upgrade on par with going from standard definition to HD. Still, Rivers is not a miracle worker, and that might be what the Clippers need to put a championship-caliber defense together from their current frontcourt options.
Tuesday night's makeshift Lakers lineup torched the Clippers to the tune of 113.6 points per 100 possessions, which would have been the worst defensive rating in the NBA last season. During the fourth quarter, the Clippers allowed the Lakers to score on 14 consecutive possessions for a total of 33 points. So Rivers has his work cut out to justify the league's highest salary among coaches and the first-round pick the Clippers gave up to get him
Most overrated draft prospect: Andrew Wiggins
Again, there's a big difference between "overrated' and "bad." Wiggins could be the best prospect in next year's draft and a future All-Star and still be overrated because of the insane levels of hype about his potential. As Insider's Jeff Goodman noted last week, there are flaws in Wiggins' game -- his outside shot is a work in progress, and his effort level can be inconsistent. And that's fine. Such imperfections are par for the course for an 18-year-old. Just keep them in mind before planning Wiggins' Hall of Fame speech or counting the championships he'll win whatever team lands him next June.
Most overrated candidate to get the No. 1 pick: Sacramento Kings
SCHOENE projects the Kings near the bottom of the Western Conference standings and with the league's fifth-worst record overall, which would put them in the mix for Wiggins. However, I think Sacramento is likely to be more competitive than the numbers indicate. Because the Kings have been so horrible on defense since the Maloofs were filming commercials for Carl's Jr., their projected defensive rating is last in the league. That seems unlikely to continue with new head coach Mike Malone, who helped engineer the Warriors' defensive turnaround as Mark Jackson's lead assistant. In Wednesday's opener, Sacramento held the Denver Nuggets to 88 points on 94 possessions.
Beyond that, new owner Vivek Ranadivé doesn't seem to be interested in pingpong balls. The Kings courted Andre Iguodala over the summer before spending lavishly on Carl Landry, and a trade for a veteran (Rajon Rondo, perhaps?) could push them entirely out of the Tank Rankings.
Most overrated league trend: Death of the center
The elite center has been on the endangered species list since the late 1990s, but it's time to rethink that theory. Last season, 11 centers were among the 48 players who posted at least seven wins above replacement by my metric, a group that doesn't even include players such as Chris Bosh and Tim Duncan who are capable of playing center as well as power forward. Add in Bosh and Duncan and all four of last year's conference finalists had All-Stars in the middle, suggesting the center position remains as important as ever despite the rising value of outside shooting.
Today's center might not be a dominant post scorer who commands a double-team or averages 20 points per game (Brook Lopez, at 19.4 PPG, was the only center to average more than 18 points last season). But they must anchor the paint against the über-quick point guards who are impossible to contain off the dribble and also have enough agility to defend pick-and-rolls, making the best centers as valuable as ever.
(from ESPN).