Ja's 2¢
formerly vcshoxj6
- 6,720
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Perk 
2013-2014 NBA Thread - IND @ WAS and OKC @ LAC on ESPN
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by big j 33,
- Start date
- Status
301216baller
Banned
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perk wow
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Hahaha the clowning on Perk was priceless
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That's not even the worst thing Perk has done in the last week or so.
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They should have showed a lowlight reel of Perk.. he also had that terrible Euro step attempt the other day
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And that terrible 3-on-2 fast break where he took it to the rack. I guess that was almost two weeks ago, but it feels like yesterday.
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Slim Reaper gunna kill ASG...
EddieDoyers
formerly eddiengambino
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Smh
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Lol they just invited him to take that shot
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i'm just waiting for shaq to show 5 perkins clips one week, he should have never went after shaq on twitter last season.
victor page
Banned
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Random throwback
That Westchester squad was ****** loaded and Bron still carved them boys up
That Westchester squad was ****** loaded and Bron still carved them boys up
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Random throwback
That Westchester squad was ****** loaded and Bron still carved them boys up
They were cool. I don't know if they were more loaded or better than that chester squad w/T Bland n them.
Good post
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antidope
Supporter
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- 67,667
Well today's the day that I get to go to my one Spurs game a year. The worst Franchise in professional sports can't ruin this night with their presence.
When you guys go to games do you go in team apparel? I always bring as much as possible
View media item 763710
When you guys go to games do you go in team apparel? I always bring as much as possible
View media item 763710
keel252
Banned
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that 01' westchestor squad was a mobb...bottoms, hassan and Trevor coming off the bench.
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Kenny's shots at Grant Hill guarding Lebron
Perkins running the offense
Perkins running the offense
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Perk is really a good substitute while McGee is out
BTW since Terry Scotts is the coach for the West shouldn't he put in LMA or Lillard? I think he goes with LMA over the young fella. Curry-KD-Blake-Love-LMA
Not a fan of Kyrie and Wade starting. Melo
Vogel should play Bron, Wade, & Bosh a lot
BTW since Terry Scotts is the coach for the West shouldn't he put in LMA or Lillard? I think he goes with LMA over the young fella. Curry-KD-Blake-Love-LMA
Not a fan of Kyrie and Wade starting. Melo
Vogel should play Bron, Wade, & Bosh a lot
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or the day Presti signed him to a 4 yr 36 million dollar contract while he was still on crutches, 48 hrs after arriving in OKC :x
And that terrible 3-on-2 fast break where he took it to the rack. I guess that was almost two weeks ago, but it feels like yesterday.
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Who knew one made shot could boost a man's confidence so much
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NVM
Previously posted.
Previously posted.
Last edited:
In case they weren't posted yesterday.
Picking West All-Star reserves.
Picking the East All-Star reserves.
Is there a Big Four of NBA teams?
Midseason awards for rookie class.
Picking West All-Star reserves.
Before they begin voting for All-Star reserves, some advice to Western Conference coaches: good luck. Despite injuries that have thinned the ranks of contenders in recent weeks, the West features more deserving All-Stars than roster spots -- especially with one of them going to Kobe Bryant, who was voted a starter despite being limited to six games by injury.
Traditionally, 10 wins above replacement is the threshold for All-Stars by my WARP metric. No fewer than 17 West players are on pace to reach that mark, and winnowing that group down to 12 players is no fun. But here's my effort to do so, relying on a combination of statistical performance to date, scouting and track record.
Backcourt
Chris Paul | PG | Los Angeles Clippers
Paul
Yes, Paul is out of the lineup and has been for nearly three weeks because of a separated right shoulder, but if he's healthy enough to play by the All-Star Game -- as he recently told reporters is his hope -- he absolutely deserves to be there. Despite the time he has missed, Paul still ranks sixth in the league in WARP, which is designed to balance durability with performance on the court.
The Paul question gets to the heart of my least favorite thing about All-Star rosters: emphasizing the first three months of the season over the last two. By April, Paul's absence will be a footnote. It shouldn't keep him from being an All-Star. The West's coaches ought to vote him in, and if he needs to be replaced because of injury, we'll deal with that later.
James Harden | SG | Houston Rockets
Harden
Harden isn't quite the no-brainer selection he was this time a year ago. The arrival of Dwight Howard means Harden is using slightly fewer plays, but he hasn't seen any boost in his efficiency. And with Howard around, it's harder to excuse Harden's defensive no-showing as a product of his heavy offensive load.
Still, Harden is elite, in large part because the gap between the best and worst offensive players is much larger than the best and worst defensive players. So while RAPM adjusted plus-minus from the Talking Practice blog has Harden as a negative factor on defense, he remains in the top 10 overall thanks to the second-best offensive rating in the league behind LeBron James.
Frontcourt
LaMarcus Aldridge | PF | Portland Trail Blazers
Aldridge
Aldridge for MVP talk has quieted lately, but supporters can point to adjusted plus-minus in his favor. The Talking Practice RAPM rates Aldridge (plus-6.1 points per 100 possessions) atop the league. Just be sure not to mention that Oklahoma City Thunder reserve Nick Collison (a long-time plus-minus standout) rates immediately behind Aldridge, just ahead of James.
Quirks like that make RAPM too noisy to rely on as a player metric by itself, but Aldridge's rating reinforces that he has legitimately been one of the league's top players this season because of his elite contributions at both ends of the floor.
Dwight Howard | C | Houston Rockets
Howard
Kevin Love justifiably made a late push for a starting spot, but Howard belongs on the West roster as well. He has settled in somewhere between his All-NBA numbers with the Orlando Magic and last season's post-back surgery play with the Los Angeles Lakers.
This season, Howard has been more efficient as a scorer (in no small part because he's hitting better than 50 percent of his free throws for the first time since 2010-11) while playing a larger role in the Houston offense than he did in L.A. As a result, Howard is back in the NBA's top 10 in WARP.
Dirk Nowitzki | PF | Dallas Mavericks
Nowitzki
Aside from his dwindling offensive rebound rates and a slight drop in usage, Nowitzki's 2013-14 campaign is virtually indistinguishable from seasons that brought him an MVP (2005-06) and a championship and Finals MVP (2010-11). That's remarkable for a player who will celebrate the 15th anniversary of his NBA debut (Feb. 5, 1999) next month.
Though up-and-coming stars DeMarcus Cousins and Anthony Davis have gaudier individual stats, Nowitzki's superior impact on team performance assures him a spot on the roster. He's in the top 10 in RAPM.
Wild cards
Damian Lillard | PG | Portland Trail Blazers
Lillard
There's no shortage of deserving point guards in the West. Lillard separates himself from this pack with his key role in the NBA's best offensive attack. He's using nearly a quarter of the Blazers' plays while on the court, slightly more than peers Mike Conley, Goran Dragic and Ty Lawson, and doing so with equal or better efficiency. The result is an offense scoring 1.5 more points per 100 possessions than any other in the league.
A plea: If coaches pick against Lillard, hopefully it won't be on the grounds that his field goal percentage (42.1) is too low. Among star players, only Stephen Curry takes more of his shots from 3-point range than Lillard, who is actually shooting better from beyond the arc (43 percent) than inside it (41.4). As a result, Lillard's field goal percentage is misleading. His 58.1 true shooting percentage, which factors in both 3s and free throws, makes him far more efficient than the league-average player (53.6).
DeMarcus Cousins | C | Sacramento Kings
Cousins
The toughest call for the West roster is the last big man. With injury replacements likely to come from the backcourt to keep the roster balanced, we have one spot and two Kentucky alumni, Cousins and Davis, who are tied for seventh in the league with 7.8 WARP apiece. Neither player fares as well in terms of team impact. Davis actually scores as league average by RAPM, while Cousins (plus-0.3) is only slightly better. Still, they've done enough individually to distance themselves from other big men in consideration.
Ultimately, I lean toward Cousins for a couple of reasons. First, he has had more of an impact on his team's play this season (plus-5.9 points per 100 possessions, per NBA.com/Stats) than Davis (plus-1.7). Second, while I've been critical of Cousins as the anchor of a poor defense, the Kings (28th) have actually passed the Pelicans (29th) in terms of defensive rating. Davis has yet to translate his elite NCAA defense to the NBA, and advanced stats that credit him for a high block rate overstate his value.
Injury replacement
Mike Conley | PG | Memphis Grizzlies
Conley
Depending on how quickly Bryant and Paul get back on the court, the West could require an injury replacement. In that event, I'd suggest Conley to incoming NBA commissioner Adam Silver, who will make these choices for the first time after replacing David Stern next month.
I'm breaking one of my own rules here. Ordinarily, I believe in favoring established All-Stars unless the competition is clearly better, which would favor Tony Parker. But this is a unique opportunity to reward Conley, who might not have a chance for an All-Star spot in future seasons with Russell Westbrook back healthy and providing more competition at point guard.
Conley (5.5) is part of a group with Dragic (5.5) and Lawson (5.1) that is very close in terms of WARP. I also considered Isaiah Thomas (6.1), who actually leads all of them. Conley separates from the other competitors for two reasons. First, he's the best defender of the group, which is reflected by his advantage in RAPM (he's at plus-3.7, 15th in the league; Parker is at plus-2.7, Dragic plus-2.1, Lawson plus-1.5 and Thomas plus-1.1). Second, Conley played at an All-Star level during the second half of last season. Dragic, Lawson and particularly Thomas have reached that level only this season.
In the event the West needs to fill both Bryant's and Paul's spots on the roster, Parker is a worthy choice and would avoid the remarkable scenario of San Antonio having the conference's best record at the break and no players on the All-Star team.
Traditionally, 10 wins above replacement is the threshold for All-Stars by my WARP metric. No fewer than 17 West players are on pace to reach that mark, and winnowing that group down to 12 players is no fun. But here's my effort to do so, relying on a combination of statistical performance to date, scouting and track record.
Backcourt
Chris Paul | PG | Los Angeles Clippers
Paul
Yes, Paul is out of the lineup and has been for nearly three weeks because of a separated right shoulder, but if he's healthy enough to play by the All-Star Game -- as he recently told reporters is his hope -- he absolutely deserves to be there. Despite the time he has missed, Paul still ranks sixth in the league in WARP, which is designed to balance durability with performance on the court.
The Paul question gets to the heart of my least favorite thing about All-Star rosters: emphasizing the first three months of the season over the last two. By April, Paul's absence will be a footnote. It shouldn't keep him from being an All-Star. The West's coaches ought to vote him in, and if he needs to be replaced because of injury, we'll deal with that later.
James Harden | SG | Houston Rockets
Harden
Harden isn't quite the no-brainer selection he was this time a year ago. The arrival of Dwight Howard means Harden is using slightly fewer plays, but he hasn't seen any boost in his efficiency. And with Howard around, it's harder to excuse Harden's defensive no-showing as a product of his heavy offensive load.
Still, Harden is elite, in large part because the gap between the best and worst offensive players is much larger than the best and worst defensive players. So while RAPM adjusted plus-minus from the Talking Practice blog has Harden as a negative factor on defense, he remains in the top 10 overall thanks to the second-best offensive rating in the league behind LeBron James.
Frontcourt
LaMarcus Aldridge | PF | Portland Trail Blazers
Aldridge
Aldridge for MVP talk has quieted lately, but supporters can point to adjusted plus-minus in his favor. The Talking Practice RAPM rates Aldridge (plus-6.1 points per 100 possessions) atop the league. Just be sure not to mention that Oklahoma City Thunder reserve Nick Collison (a long-time plus-minus standout) rates immediately behind Aldridge, just ahead of James.
Quirks like that make RAPM too noisy to rely on as a player metric by itself, but Aldridge's rating reinforces that he has legitimately been one of the league's top players this season because of his elite contributions at both ends of the floor.
Dwight Howard | C | Houston Rockets
Howard
Kevin Love justifiably made a late push for a starting spot, but Howard belongs on the West roster as well. He has settled in somewhere between his All-NBA numbers with the Orlando Magic and last season's post-back surgery play with the Los Angeles Lakers.
This season, Howard has been more efficient as a scorer (in no small part because he's hitting better than 50 percent of his free throws for the first time since 2010-11) while playing a larger role in the Houston offense than he did in L.A. As a result, Howard is back in the NBA's top 10 in WARP.
Dirk Nowitzki | PF | Dallas Mavericks
Nowitzki
Aside from his dwindling offensive rebound rates and a slight drop in usage, Nowitzki's 2013-14 campaign is virtually indistinguishable from seasons that brought him an MVP (2005-06) and a championship and Finals MVP (2010-11). That's remarkable for a player who will celebrate the 15th anniversary of his NBA debut (Feb. 5, 1999) next month.
Though up-and-coming stars DeMarcus Cousins and Anthony Davis have gaudier individual stats, Nowitzki's superior impact on team performance assures him a spot on the roster. He's in the top 10 in RAPM.
Wild cards
Damian Lillard | PG | Portland Trail Blazers
Lillard
There's no shortage of deserving point guards in the West. Lillard separates himself from this pack with his key role in the NBA's best offensive attack. He's using nearly a quarter of the Blazers' plays while on the court, slightly more than peers Mike Conley, Goran Dragic and Ty Lawson, and doing so with equal or better efficiency. The result is an offense scoring 1.5 more points per 100 possessions than any other in the league.
A plea: If coaches pick against Lillard, hopefully it won't be on the grounds that his field goal percentage (42.1) is too low. Among star players, only Stephen Curry takes more of his shots from 3-point range than Lillard, who is actually shooting better from beyond the arc (43 percent) than inside it (41.4). As a result, Lillard's field goal percentage is misleading. His 58.1 true shooting percentage, which factors in both 3s and free throws, makes him far more efficient than the league-average player (53.6).
DeMarcus Cousins | C | Sacramento Kings
Cousins
The toughest call for the West roster is the last big man. With injury replacements likely to come from the backcourt to keep the roster balanced, we have one spot and two Kentucky alumni, Cousins and Davis, who are tied for seventh in the league with 7.8 WARP apiece. Neither player fares as well in terms of team impact. Davis actually scores as league average by RAPM, while Cousins (plus-0.3) is only slightly better. Still, they've done enough individually to distance themselves from other big men in consideration.
Ultimately, I lean toward Cousins for a couple of reasons. First, he has had more of an impact on his team's play this season (plus-5.9 points per 100 possessions, per NBA.com/Stats) than Davis (plus-1.7). Second, while I've been critical of Cousins as the anchor of a poor defense, the Kings (28th) have actually passed the Pelicans (29th) in terms of defensive rating. Davis has yet to translate his elite NCAA defense to the NBA, and advanced stats that credit him for a high block rate overstate his value.
Injury replacement
Mike Conley | PG | Memphis Grizzlies
Conley
Depending on how quickly Bryant and Paul get back on the court, the West could require an injury replacement. In that event, I'd suggest Conley to incoming NBA commissioner Adam Silver, who will make these choices for the first time after replacing David Stern next month.
I'm breaking one of my own rules here. Ordinarily, I believe in favoring established All-Stars unless the competition is clearly better, which would favor Tony Parker. But this is a unique opportunity to reward Conley, who might not have a chance for an All-Star spot in future seasons with Russell Westbrook back healthy and providing more competition at point guard.
Conley (5.5) is part of a group with Dragic (5.5) and Lawson (5.1) that is very close in terms of WARP. I also considered Isaiah Thomas (6.1), who actually leads all of them. Conley separates from the other competitors for two reasons. First, he's the best defender of the group, which is reflected by his advantage in RAPM (he's at plus-3.7, 15th in the league; Parker is at plus-2.7, Dragic plus-2.1, Lawson plus-1.5 and Thomas plus-1.1). Second, Conley played at an All-Star level during the second half of last season. Dragic, Lawson and particularly Thomas have reached that level only this season.
In the event the West needs to fill both Bryant's and Paul's spots on the roster, Parker is a worthy choice and would avoid the remarkable scenario of San Antonio having the conference's best record at the break and no players on the All-Star team.
Picking the East All-Star reserves.
Yes, believe it or not, the East will have a full roster in the All-Star Game.
Now that we have the list of starters, let's get to the juicy stuff: the rest of the roster.
The NBA announced Thursday night who will start the All-Star Game. But now comes the hard part: the seven others on the roster. For those who don't know, the league requires two guards, three frontcourt players and two wild cards to fill out the bench at Indiana coach Frank Vogel's choosing. Here's who I'd pick if I were filling out the ballot based on production on both ends of the floor. I'll inevitably break some hearts out there, but keep in mind, there are only seven spots. I repeat: There are only seven spots.
As you'll see, my list has changed since I took the temperature a month ago, but you'll see who made the cut below:
Backcourt
Kyle Lowry | PG | Toronto Raptors
Lowry
If Wednesday was Lowry's audition for the All-Star Game, he might have been automatically removed from the ballot. He shot the ball 10 times and missed every single one of them. Luckily for him, it wasn't an audition. It was one horrible game for Lowry, but in the other 40 he has played, he has my vote for the East's best point guard.
He ranks right up there with John Wall (20.2) and Kyrie Irving (20.1) in PER with a 19.5 rating, but unlike those two, Lowry actually cares about the defensive end. Synergy Sports tracking tells us that he has stepped up for a sum of 50 charges, a huge number that is almost more than entire teams. Of course, the box score doesn't acknowledge those, but we should acknowledge that Lowry deserves to start the All-Star Game based on merit for his work on both ends of the floor.
John Wall | PG | Washington Wizards
Wall
Like many on this list, Wall has stepped up his game by adding a 3-point shot to his arsenal, even if it's not very reliable. The only issue is a corresponding dip in free-throw rate from 41 percent of his field-goal attempts down to a career-low 33 percent. Still, he's registering nearly a 20-and-10 season as he continues to carry the Wizards' offense through a mediocre season.
Wizards fans still aren't doing somersaults after the max contract extension, but Wall has delivered a fine season while the rest of the Wizards' roster can't seem to stay on the court. He's not quite as much a liability on the defensive end as Irving (whom I'd leave off my ballot), but for a guy who blocked shots at a historic rate for his position, it's alarming to see his swat rate sliced in half this season. All in all, he's the best offensive point guard in the East so he'll get the nod.
Frontcourt
Paul Millsap | PF | Atlanta Hawks
Millsap
Perhaps the most underappreciated career in the league. Three years ago, he was inexplicably left of the All-Star ballot while he quietly averaged 20 and 10 through the first month of the season. He has long been the darling of the analytics community (he posted the seventh-highest RAPM last season). And now he's the best player on the East's third-seeded team.
The 28-year-old has never gotten All-Star love, but let's change that. The Hawks have stayed afloat without Al Horford thanks to Millsap's ever-expanding game. The guy does it all. He makes 3s at a 38-percent clip, unleashes his 7-foot-2 wingspan for gobs of blocks and steals (look at his stat line from Wednesday) and now ranks fourth among East big men in PER (20.1). If he doesn't get in this time around, I'm launching a global investigation.
Chris Bosh | PF/C | Miami Heat
Bosh
Looking to blame someone for the Heat's defensive apathy? Don't accuse Bosh. Bosh is the best pick-and-roll defender in the league, according to Synergy Sports tracking. He has allowed just 65 points on 124 pick-and-roll attacks so far this season, which amounts to a minuscule rate of 0.52 points where league average is around 0.80 points. What's more, the Heat are 6.6 points better per 100 possessions on defense with Bosh on the floor compared to when he sits, per NBA.com. Call him "The Anti-LeBron."
On the offensive end, he's registering a typical efficient Bosh campaign, except this time he's stretching out to the 3-point line, where he's shooting a solid 37 percent. His true shooting percentage sits at a career-high perch at 60.1 percent and he has hit the boards harder recently after a slow start. His minutes might be down but don't let that fool you: Bosh still is an All-Star -- on both ends.
Roy Hibbert | C | Indiana Pacers
Hibbert
We can pretty much call it: This is your NBA Defensive Player of the Year winner. Hibbert, the NBA's Lord of the Paint, is anchoring the best defense we've seen in a long time. The Pacers' 93.6 defensive rating is 9.5 points lower than average, which is the largest differential on record since 1996-97, according to NBA StatsCube data. In other words, we've seen teams (like, say the 2003-04 Detroit Pistons) hold opponents to fewer points per possession, but not after accounting for the league-wide scoring levels which are up this season, comparatively.
Hibbert isn't blocking everything in sight the way he did in November, but he's still keeping his foul rate at manageable levels as he masters the verticality rule to his advantage (Wednesday DQ notwithstanding). Offensively, he's no juggernaut, but he's not Ben Wallace, either. Hibbert ranks second among active East centers in points per 36 minutes (14.4) thanks to an increase in free-throw rate. He missed last year's All-Star Game, but let's not make the same mistake again.
Wild cards
Arron Afflalo | G | Orlando Magic
Afflalo
With Irving voted into the starting lineup, everyone gets moved down a peg on my list. And that puts Afflalo in my wild-card slot. Afflalo was overwhelmed last season as Orlando's No. 1 scoring option, but holy smokes is he thriving in that role this season. Of the 19 qualified players averaging 20 points this season, only LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Kevin Love, Paul George and James Harden can match Afflalo's true shooting percentage (58.3 percent). Not bad company.
The red-hot efficiency of "Spellcheck" has thawed as of late (he's shooting 39 percent in January) so I'd probably leave him on the reserves and slot Wade, who has more estimated wins added despite nine fewer games, into the starting lineup. As much as I'd like to reflexively put DeMar DeRozan here after his 40-point outburst on Wednesday, I can't get past the Raptors' mediocre 45.3 effective field-goal percentage this season. Afflalo isn't buckling under the scoring load the way he did last season and is doing a little bit of everything for the Magic. Well, I shouldn't say everything; Afflalo has blocked exactly one shot in 1,456 minutes this season. That's hard to do even with his grounded defensive game.
Joakim Noah | C | Chicago Bulls
Noah
Debating between Andre Drummond and Noah was so excruciatingly stressful, I just bid goodbye to the few remaining hairs I had left on my head. Ultimately, if Irving didn't get voted into the starting gig, I'd pick both Drummond and Noah, but alas, I have to choose one. And as much as I'd like to see Drummond jumping over the video board for in-game pyrotechnics, I'm going with Chicago's engine, Noah.
You want to guess what the Bulls' defensive rating is since Deng got traded? It went down the toilet, right? Guess again. Try 96.3 points per 100 possessions, second best in the league over that time. Noah's not as efficient as the "Big Penguin," who has a two-point edge in PER (21.4 vs. 19.2). But Noah's in another league as a defender and playmaker (averaging five assists over his past 15 games). Ultimately, my heart said Drummond while my head said Noah. I'm trusting my (now hairless) head.
Apologies to: Drummond, Lance Stephenson, Al Jefferson, DeRozan, Kemba Walker, Amir Johnson, Michael Carter-Williams, Thaddeus Young, Deng, David West, Joe Johnson and Jeff Teague.
Now that we have the list of starters, let's get to the juicy stuff: the rest of the roster.
The NBA announced Thursday night who will start the All-Star Game. But now comes the hard part: the seven others on the roster. For those who don't know, the league requires two guards, three frontcourt players and two wild cards to fill out the bench at Indiana coach Frank Vogel's choosing. Here's who I'd pick if I were filling out the ballot based on production on both ends of the floor. I'll inevitably break some hearts out there, but keep in mind, there are only seven spots. I repeat: There are only seven spots.
As you'll see, my list has changed since I took the temperature a month ago, but you'll see who made the cut below:
Backcourt
Kyle Lowry | PG | Toronto Raptors
Lowry
If Wednesday was Lowry's audition for the All-Star Game, he might have been automatically removed from the ballot. He shot the ball 10 times and missed every single one of them. Luckily for him, it wasn't an audition. It was one horrible game for Lowry, but in the other 40 he has played, he has my vote for the East's best point guard.
He ranks right up there with John Wall (20.2) and Kyrie Irving (20.1) in PER with a 19.5 rating, but unlike those two, Lowry actually cares about the defensive end. Synergy Sports tracking tells us that he has stepped up for a sum of 50 charges, a huge number that is almost more than entire teams. Of course, the box score doesn't acknowledge those, but we should acknowledge that Lowry deserves to start the All-Star Game based on merit for his work on both ends of the floor.
John Wall | PG | Washington Wizards
Wall
Like many on this list, Wall has stepped up his game by adding a 3-point shot to his arsenal, even if it's not very reliable. The only issue is a corresponding dip in free-throw rate from 41 percent of his field-goal attempts down to a career-low 33 percent. Still, he's registering nearly a 20-and-10 season as he continues to carry the Wizards' offense through a mediocre season.
Wizards fans still aren't doing somersaults after the max contract extension, but Wall has delivered a fine season while the rest of the Wizards' roster can't seem to stay on the court. He's not quite as much a liability on the defensive end as Irving (whom I'd leave off my ballot), but for a guy who blocked shots at a historic rate for his position, it's alarming to see his swat rate sliced in half this season. All in all, he's the best offensive point guard in the East so he'll get the nod.
Frontcourt
Paul Millsap | PF | Atlanta Hawks
Millsap
Perhaps the most underappreciated career in the league. Three years ago, he was inexplicably left of the All-Star ballot while he quietly averaged 20 and 10 through the first month of the season. He has long been the darling of the analytics community (he posted the seventh-highest RAPM last season). And now he's the best player on the East's third-seeded team.
The 28-year-old has never gotten All-Star love, but let's change that. The Hawks have stayed afloat without Al Horford thanks to Millsap's ever-expanding game. The guy does it all. He makes 3s at a 38-percent clip, unleashes his 7-foot-2 wingspan for gobs of blocks and steals (look at his stat line from Wednesday) and now ranks fourth among East big men in PER (20.1). If he doesn't get in this time around, I'm launching a global investigation.
Chris Bosh | PF/C | Miami Heat
Bosh
Looking to blame someone for the Heat's defensive apathy? Don't accuse Bosh. Bosh is the best pick-and-roll defender in the league, according to Synergy Sports tracking. He has allowed just 65 points on 124 pick-and-roll attacks so far this season, which amounts to a minuscule rate of 0.52 points where league average is around 0.80 points. What's more, the Heat are 6.6 points better per 100 possessions on defense with Bosh on the floor compared to when he sits, per NBA.com. Call him "The Anti-LeBron."
On the offensive end, he's registering a typical efficient Bosh campaign, except this time he's stretching out to the 3-point line, where he's shooting a solid 37 percent. His true shooting percentage sits at a career-high perch at 60.1 percent and he has hit the boards harder recently after a slow start. His minutes might be down but don't let that fool you: Bosh still is an All-Star -- on both ends.
Roy Hibbert | C | Indiana Pacers
Hibbert
We can pretty much call it: This is your NBA Defensive Player of the Year winner. Hibbert, the NBA's Lord of the Paint, is anchoring the best defense we've seen in a long time. The Pacers' 93.6 defensive rating is 9.5 points lower than average, which is the largest differential on record since 1996-97, according to NBA StatsCube data. In other words, we've seen teams (like, say the 2003-04 Detroit Pistons) hold opponents to fewer points per possession, but not after accounting for the league-wide scoring levels which are up this season, comparatively.
Hibbert isn't blocking everything in sight the way he did in November, but he's still keeping his foul rate at manageable levels as he masters the verticality rule to his advantage (Wednesday DQ notwithstanding). Offensively, he's no juggernaut, but he's not Ben Wallace, either. Hibbert ranks second among active East centers in points per 36 minutes (14.4) thanks to an increase in free-throw rate. He missed last year's All-Star Game, but let's not make the same mistake again.
Wild cards
Arron Afflalo | G | Orlando Magic
Afflalo
With Irving voted into the starting lineup, everyone gets moved down a peg on my list. And that puts Afflalo in my wild-card slot. Afflalo was overwhelmed last season as Orlando's No. 1 scoring option, but holy smokes is he thriving in that role this season. Of the 19 qualified players averaging 20 points this season, only LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Kevin Love, Paul George and James Harden can match Afflalo's true shooting percentage (58.3 percent). Not bad company.
The red-hot efficiency of "Spellcheck" has thawed as of late (he's shooting 39 percent in January) so I'd probably leave him on the reserves and slot Wade, who has more estimated wins added despite nine fewer games, into the starting lineup. As much as I'd like to reflexively put DeMar DeRozan here after his 40-point outburst on Wednesday, I can't get past the Raptors' mediocre 45.3 effective field-goal percentage this season. Afflalo isn't buckling under the scoring load the way he did last season and is doing a little bit of everything for the Magic. Well, I shouldn't say everything; Afflalo has blocked exactly one shot in 1,456 minutes this season. That's hard to do even with his grounded defensive game.
Joakim Noah | C | Chicago Bulls
Noah
Debating between Andre Drummond and Noah was so excruciatingly stressful, I just bid goodbye to the few remaining hairs I had left on my head. Ultimately, if Irving didn't get voted into the starting gig, I'd pick both Drummond and Noah, but alas, I have to choose one. And as much as I'd like to see Drummond jumping over the video board for in-game pyrotechnics, I'm going with Chicago's engine, Noah.
You want to guess what the Bulls' defensive rating is since Deng got traded? It went down the toilet, right? Guess again. Try 96.3 points per 100 possessions, second best in the league over that time. Noah's not as efficient as the "Big Penguin," who has a two-point edge in PER (21.4 vs. 19.2). But Noah's in another league as a defender and playmaker (averaging five assists over his past 15 games). Ultimately, my heart said Drummond while my head said Noah. I'm trusting my (now hairless) head.
Apologies to: Drummond, Lance Stephenson, Al Jefferson, DeRozan, Kemba Walker, Amir Johnson, Michael Carter-Williams, Thaddeus Young, Deng, David West, Joe Johnson and Jeff Teague.
Is there a Big Four of NBA teams?
Call it the Big Four.
In the latest survey of predictions in the fresh-out-of-the-oven Winter Forecast, which is being rolled out this week, a clear trend has risen to the surface. After we asked more than 50 panelists to pick their most likely NBA champions, a tier of four teams overwhelmingly popped up more than the rest (in alphabetical order):
The Indiana Pacers, Miami Heat, Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs.
In our eyes, this power quartet have separated themselves from the rest of the pack even though the standings say otherwise. The Portland Trail Blazers are tied with the Thunder in the win-loss column, but our group isn't sold on their title contention status. Same goes for the Los Angeles Clippers, Houston Rockets, Golden State Warriors and (gasp!) the rest of the Eastern Conference. Full results will be published on Friday, in case you are wondering.
Hollinger's Playoff Odds
Which teams do the odds favor? Check our projections daily. Playoff Odds »
So what's so special about the Pacers, Heat, Thunder and Spurs? This isn't earth-shattering news, but they've been successful lately. Head over to the standings and you'll see that they hold four of the top five W-L records in the NBA, with the Blazers trying to stay in the championship-contention picture.
But this is a key thing: We've already seen the Big Four contend -- unlike the Blazers. The Heat are two-time defending champs. The Spurs came within seconds of grasping the Larry O'Brien Trophy last season. The Thunder reached the NBA Finals in 2012, and the Pacers came within a win of reaching the Finals last season. In our minds, seeing is believing.
Analytically, we can see a line in the sand between the four contenders and the rest of the NBA. Sure, the Heat aren't living up to their Forecast reputation lately; they've played traffic-cone defense over the past month, hemorrhaging 107.6 points per 100 possessions to the opponent in January, a rating that places them 23rd during that time. But despite the defensive dip, the Heat have the fourth-best pace-adjusted point differential in the league (plus-6.7), behind the Pacers (plus-10.2), Spurs (plus-9.0) and Thunder (plus-8.0).
These are the four true championship contenders, according to the wisdom of the ESPN Forecast crowd, which has a pretty darn good track record in predicting the future.
But we're still about halfway through the season, and there's plenty of time for pretenders to turn into contenders. How do they make the leap?
Here is the to-do list for the Blazers, Warriors, Rockets, Clippers and preseason dark-horse candidates, Memphis Grizzlies and Brooklyn Nets.
Pretenders to contenders
Portland Trail Blazers | Path to contention: Trade for Omer Asik.
Honestly, the Blazers shouldn't feel compelled to do anything. After all, they've exceeded virtually all expectations with their 31-10 start and have been the league's biggest surprise team now that the Phoenix Suns have fallen off the map. The Blazers could sit tight and pat themselves on the back for their overachieving season. If they don't win a title, so what? No one expected that anyway.
But if winning a title now is the goal, the Blazers need to shore up their porous defense. It currently ranks 22nd in the league on a per-possession basis behind losing outfits such as the Detroit Pistons, Cleveland Cavaliers and Orlando Magic. Coincidentally, they could have found their defensive anchor on the opposing bench on Monday night in Asik, who is probably one of the five best defensive big men in the game today.
The question for Portland is whether it would be willing to break up the chemistry and swallow the $15 million it will cost next season to take on Asik's contract. The Rockets, who desperately need a perimeter defender, would likely want a player such as Wesley Matthews if they're sending away Asik. Would the Blazers bite? Probably not. And that's perfectly fine, considering preseason expectations. But they can't seriously think about a championship with a bottom-10 defense.
Los Angeles Clippers | Path to contention: Get healthy.
One of the most interesting kernels from the latest Forecast is the Clippers taking a definitive backseat to the Thunder despite both teams losing their star point guard to injury. Yet the Thunder still are viewed as serious contenders, while the Clippers are expected to be distant also-rans.
Why the disparity? It probably has to do with Kevin Durant's superhuman play more than anything, but we shouldn't sleep on the Clippers, who are just starting to get healthy again and have played great ball recently. Since Chris Paul separated his shoulder in the third quarter of the Dallas Mavericks game on Jan. 3, the Clippers have won seven of their past nine games, including the Dallas win in which Paul sat out most of the second half.
They've been able to weather the storm thanks to their overhauled defense and the return of J.J. Redick (18.4 PPG in past five games), who has stabilized the battered backcourt. Since Dec. 1, the Clippers quietly own the fourth-best defense in the league, holding opponents to 100.2 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA.com. If coach Doc Rivers can continue turning a frontline of Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan into a top-five defensive outfit and Paul comes back fully healthy, they'll put up enough points to be the last one standing. Those are two big ifs, however.
Houston Rockets | Path to contention: Upgrade perimeter D.
The Rockets are in a good spot. They're tied with the Heat for the 10th-best overall defense in the land and rank fourth in offensive efficiency. But even Dwight Howard can't erase the mistakes of their turnstile perimeter D, led by James Harden, Chandler Parsons and Aaron Brooks (who inflicts serious damage in small doses). The Rockets currently rank 23rd in isolation defense, giving up .85 points per play, according to Synergy Sports.
Harden, especially, needs to be rescued on one-on-one matchups. He has allowed 41 points on 37 isolation plays (1.1 points per play), which ranks second-to-last among the 99 players who have defended at least as many isolation plays as he has. The Rockets need a 3-and-D specialist who can mask Harden's defensive incompetence and make life easier for Howard on the back end. At age 32, Francisco Garcia isn't that guy anymore.
So who makes sense for the Rockets? Luol Deng already got moved, so you can strike him off the list, but his teammate, C.J. Miles, could make some sense in Houston. Although Miles is not a world-class defensive stopper, he has improved there this season, and he shoots lights-out from deep (40 percent). As mentioned earlier, Matthews is a name to watch, as well as Danny Green in San Antonio and Thabo Sefolosha in Oklahoma City. But good luck finding solutions with West rivals.
Golden State Warriors | Path to contention: Maintain #FullSquad.
Just like the Clippers, the Warriors need to stay healthy. They're 21-10 with Andre Iguodala on the floor but 5-7 without the two-way stud in uniform. Even when they have Iguodala healthy, they need a massive boost on the offensive end, especially from the second unit. Jordan Crawford should help anchor the second unit, but let's not ignore the fact that he had shot 35 percent in his last 15 games in Boston.
The Warriors' offense ranks just 13th this season, but their starting lineup scores at a blistering rate, 116.7 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA.com. That's not the problem. The problem is they didn't have anyone to create offense outside of Stephen Curry and Iguodala, but coach Mark Jackson refuses to play Iguodala as a backup point guard. That could change as the season rolls on and we draw closer to the playoffs.
But the Warriors have been dreadful with Curry off the floor, scoring a pathetic 87.5 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA.com. Yes, Crawford will help spur a Curry-less offense, but the truth is the Warriors don't really need a drastic change to cement their contention status. They upgraded their ballhandling depth, and now they have #FullSquad. Can they maintain it?
Memphis Grizzlies | Path to contention: Shooting, shooting and more shooting.
The Grizzlies have roared back into the playoff picture, winning five straight before dropping a narrow game at home to the short-handed New Orleans Pelicans on Monday. They're still on the outside looking in with three teams ahead of them in the Hollinger Playoff Odds for the eighth spot. Even if they make it, they won't be serious bidders for the title.
That is, unless they find some 3-point shooters. The ESPN Forecast was big on the Grizzlies before the season, but a slow start and a Marc Gasol injury later, the Grizzlies have a huge climb just to get in the playoffs (20.5 percent odds as of Tuesday morning). But if they sneak in and find some 3-point shooting along the way, watch out. The Grizzlies currently are dead last in 3-point makes and attempts while shooting 34.8 percent (21st). They need help, and they need it now. Courtney Lee (10-for-25, 40 percent since arriving in Bluff City) has helped, but that won't be nearly enough.
It's time to demote Tayshaun Prince and find a wing who isn't afraid to shoot 3. They'd likely have to start with dangling Kosta Koufos, Jon Leuer and/or Ed Davis to bring in an elite shooting talent such as Atlanta's Kyle Korver or Phoenix's Channing Frye. If they want to go all-in for a title, they need a 3-point shooter to avoid the Memphis blues.
Brooklyn Nets | Path to contention: Trade for Omer Asik.
We're putting the Nets on this list for two reasons: (1) They received East champ buzz before the season and (2) they've surged as of late, winning seven of their past eight. Of all the East teams in the non-Heat/Pacers division, the Nets probably have the highest ceiling. Question is: How can they get there?
It won't be with Brook Lopez, who is out for the season after undergoing major foot surgery that will table him until next season. They've gotten by with Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce holding down the front line, but that's a surefire way to burn out Garnett before the playoffs come around. Here's the safety net: deal for Asik.
The Nets are tied with the Blazers in the defensive efficiency rankings, so it's no surprise that they could use Asik as well. But it's an open question as to whether the Nets have the assets to meet the Rockets' asking price. The Rockets probably won't listen until Lopez is included, but the Rockets don't need him long-term with Howard already in the fold. With that said, it's the only way a deal gets done. Would the all-in Nets consider swapping Shaun Livingston, Andrei Kirilenko and Lopez for Asik, Parsons and Jeremy Lin?
In the latest survey of predictions in the fresh-out-of-the-oven Winter Forecast, which is being rolled out this week, a clear trend has risen to the surface. After we asked more than 50 panelists to pick their most likely NBA champions, a tier of four teams overwhelmingly popped up more than the rest (in alphabetical order):
The Indiana Pacers, Miami Heat, Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs.
In our eyes, this power quartet have separated themselves from the rest of the pack even though the standings say otherwise. The Portland Trail Blazers are tied with the Thunder in the win-loss column, but our group isn't sold on their title contention status. Same goes for the Los Angeles Clippers, Houston Rockets, Golden State Warriors and (gasp!) the rest of the Eastern Conference. Full results will be published on Friday, in case you are wondering.
Hollinger's Playoff Odds
Which teams do the odds favor? Check our projections daily. Playoff Odds »
So what's so special about the Pacers, Heat, Thunder and Spurs? This isn't earth-shattering news, but they've been successful lately. Head over to the standings and you'll see that they hold four of the top five W-L records in the NBA, with the Blazers trying to stay in the championship-contention picture.
But this is a key thing: We've already seen the Big Four contend -- unlike the Blazers. The Heat are two-time defending champs. The Spurs came within seconds of grasping the Larry O'Brien Trophy last season. The Thunder reached the NBA Finals in 2012, and the Pacers came within a win of reaching the Finals last season. In our minds, seeing is believing.
Analytically, we can see a line in the sand between the four contenders and the rest of the NBA. Sure, the Heat aren't living up to their Forecast reputation lately; they've played traffic-cone defense over the past month, hemorrhaging 107.6 points per 100 possessions to the opponent in January, a rating that places them 23rd during that time. But despite the defensive dip, the Heat have the fourth-best pace-adjusted point differential in the league (plus-6.7), behind the Pacers (plus-10.2), Spurs (plus-9.0) and Thunder (plus-8.0).
These are the four true championship contenders, according to the wisdom of the ESPN Forecast crowd, which has a pretty darn good track record in predicting the future.
But we're still about halfway through the season, and there's plenty of time for pretenders to turn into contenders. How do they make the leap?
Here is the to-do list for the Blazers, Warriors, Rockets, Clippers and preseason dark-horse candidates, Memphis Grizzlies and Brooklyn Nets.
Pretenders to contenders
Portland Trail Blazers | Path to contention: Trade for Omer Asik.
Honestly, the Blazers shouldn't feel compelled to do anything. After all, they've exceeded virtually all expectations with their 31-10 start and have been the league's biggest surprise team now that the Phoenix Suns have fallen off the map. The Blazers could sit tight and pat themselves on the back for their overachieving season. If they don't win a title, so what? No one expected that anyway.
But if winning a title now is the goal, the Blazers need to shore up their porous defense. It currently ranks 22nd in the league on a per-possession basis behind losing outfits such as the Detroit Pistons, Cleveland Cavaliers and Orlando Magic. Coincidentally, they could have found their defensive anchor on the opposing bench on Monday night in Asik, who is probably one of the five best defensive big men in the game today.
The question for Portland is whether it would be willing to break up the chemistry and swallow the $15 million it will cost next season to take on Asik's contract. The Rockets, who desperately need a perimeter defender, would likely want a player such as Wesley Matthews if they're sending away Asik. Would the Blazers bite? Probably not. And that's perfectly fine, considering preseason expectations. But they can't seriously think about a championship with a bottom-10 defense.
Los Angeles Clippers | Path to contention: Get healthy.
One of the most interesting kernels from the latest Forecast is the Clippers taking a definitive backseat to the Thunder despite both teams losing their star point guard to injury. Yet the Thunder still are viewed as serious contenders, while the Clippers are expected to be distant also-rans.
Why the disparity? It probably has to do with Kevin Durant's superhuman play more than anything, but we shouldn't sleep on the Clippers, who are just starting to get healthy again and have played great ball recently. Since Chris Paul separated his shoulder in the third quarter of the Dallas Mavericks game on Jan. 3, the Clippers have won seven of their past nine games, including the Dallas win in which Paul sat out most of the second half.
They've been able to weather the storm thanks to their overhauled defense and the return of J.J. Redick (18.4 PPG in past five games), who has stabilized the battered backcourt. Since Dec. 1, the Clippers quietly own the fourth-best defense in the league, holding opponents to 100.2 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA.com. If coach Doc Rivers can continue turning a frontline of Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan into a top-five defensive outfit and Paul comes back fully healthy, they'll put up enough points to be the last one standing. Those are two big ifs, however.
Houston Rockets | Path to contention: Upgrade perimeter D.
The Rockets are in a good spot. They're tied with the Heat for the 10th-best overall defense in the land and rank fourth in offensive efficiency. But even Dwight Howard can't erase the mistakes of their turnstile perimeter D, led by James Harden, Chandler Parsons and Aaron Brooks (who inflicts serious damage in small doses). The Rockets currently rank 23rd in isolation defense, giving up .85 points per play, according to Synergy Sports.
Harden, especially, needs to be rescued on one-on-one matchups. He has allowed 41 points on 37 isolation plays (1.1 points per play), which ranks second-to-last among the 99 players who have defended at least as many isolation plays as he has. The Rockets need a 3-and-D specialist who can mask Harden's defensive incompetence and make life easier for Howard on the back end. At age 32, Francisco Garcia isn't that guy anymore.
So who makes sense for the Rockets? Luol Deng already got moved, so you can strike him off the list, but his teammate, C.J. Miles, could make some sense in Houston. Although Miles is not a world-class defensive stopper, he has improved there this season, and he shoots lights-out from deep (40 percent). As mentioned earlier, Matthews is a name to watch, as well as Danny Green in San Antonio and Thabo Sefolosha in Oklahoma City. But good luck finding solutions with West rivals.
Golden State Warriors | Path to contention: Maintain #FullSquad.
Just like the Clippers, the Warriors need to stay healthy. They're 21-10 with Andre Iguodala on the floor but 5-7 without the two-way stud in uniform. Even when they have Iguodala healthy, they need a massive boost on the offensive end, especially from the second unit. Jordan Crawford should help anchor the second unit, but let's not ignore the fact that he had shot 35 percent in his last 15 games in Boston.
The Warriors' offense ranks just 13th this season, but their starting lineup scores at a blistering rate, 116.7 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA.com. That's not the problem. The problem is they didn't have anyone to create offense outside of Stephen Curry and Iguodala, but coach Mark Jackson refuses to play Iguodala as a backup point guard. That could change as the season rolls on and we draw closer to the playoffs.
But the Warriors have been dreadful with Curry off the floor, scoring a pathetic 87.5 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA.com. Yes, Crawford will help spur a Curry-less offense, but the truth is the Warriors don't really need a drastic change to cement their contention status. They upgraded their ballhandling depth, and now they have #FullSquad. Can they maintain it?
Memphis Grizzlies | Path to contention: Shooting, shooting and more shooting.
The Grizzlies have roared back into the playoff picture, winning five straight before dropping a narrow game at home to the short-handed New Orleans Pelicans on Monday. They're still on the outside looking in with three teams ahead of them in the Hollinger Playoff Odds for the eighth spot. Even if they make it, they won't be serious bidders for the title.
That is, unless they find some 3-point shooters. The ESPN Forecast was big on the Grizzlies before the season, but a slow start and a Marc Gasol injury later, the Grizzlies have a huge climb just to get in the playoffs (20.5 percent odds as of Tuesday morning). But if they sneak in and find some 3-point shooting along the way, watch out. The Grizzlies currently are dead last in 3-point makes and attempts while shooting 34.8 percent (21st). They need help, and they need it now. Courtney Lee (10-for-25, 40 percent since arriving in Bluff City) has helped, but that won't be nearly enough.
It's time to demote Tayshaun Prince and find a wing who isn't afraid to shoot 3. They'd likely have to start with dangling Kosta Koufos, Jon Leuer and/or Ed Davis to bring in an elite shooting talent such as Atlanta's Kyle Korver or Phoenix's Channing Frye. If they want to go all-in for a title, they need a 3-point shooter to avoid the Memphis blues.
Brooklyn Nets | Path to contention: Trade for Omer Asik.
We're putting the Nets on this list for two reasons: (1) They received East champ buzz before the season and (2) they've surged as of late, winning seven of their past eight. Of all the East teams in the non-Heat/Pacers division, the Nets probably have the highest ceiling. Question is: How can they get there?
It won't be with Brook Lopez, who is out for the season after undergoing major foot surgery that will table him until next season. They've gotten by with Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce holding down the front line, but that's a surefire way to burn out Garnett before the playoffs come around. Here's the safety net: deal for Asik.
The Nets are tied with the Blazers in the defensive efficiency rankings, so it's no surprise that they could use Asik as well. But it's an open question as to whether the Nets have the assets to meet the Rockets' asking price. The Rockets probably won't listen until Lopez is included, but the Rockets don't need him long-term with Howard already in the fold. With that said, it's the only way a deal gets done. Would the all-in Nets consider swapping Shaun Livingston, Andrei Kirilenko and Lopez for Asik, Parsons and Jeremy Lin?
Midseason awards for rookie class.
The class of 2013-14 has already been maligned enough. But there have been bright spots, and it seems probable that this class will produce an All-Star or two and some players who will play prominent roles on contending teams. With the season half gone, here are the top players in some important categories.
Best Rookie
Michael Carter-Williams, 76ers
From his opening day performance to today, MCW has been the best rookie by a significant margin despite missing games due to injury. He resembles Damian Lillard in that he's a very good rookie who looks like a cornerstone piece moving forward.
With this loaded draft coming in June, the Sixers' front office can look for a great player who complements what MCW brings to the table, rather than seek just the best pure player. The best part about MCW, something that will factor heavily on draft day, is that he can help make other players better. He also can get a lot better himself. Carter-Williams is just touching the depth of his talent -- an enormous pool of potential that will take years to fully form. Exciting times for Sixers fans are on the way.
Runner-up: Trey Burke, Jazz
Best Pure Scorer
ROOKIE 50 RANKINGS
We're keeping track of every NBA rook. Here are the latest Top 50 rankings.
Rank Player Stock
1 Michael Carter-Williams
2 Trey Burke
3 Tim Hardaway Jr.
4 Victor Oladipo
5 Mason Plumlee
6 G. Antetokounmpo
7 Steven Adams
8 Kelly Olynyk
9 Hollis Thompson
10 Pero Antic
• Click here for the complete rankings »
Michael Carter-Williams, 76ers
This is a bit ironic, actually, as MCW was projected as a pass-first point guard. In reality, his skill game off the dribble, his ability to change speeds, his aggressiveness and feel for when to drive into gaps, and the space (and rules) of the NBA game have helped turn him into the kind of scoring guard the league covets.
Think about this: MCW is not a good finisher at the rim (below 50 percent). He is not much of a midrange threat, nor can he shoot the 3 (below 30 percent). He is not very strong. He is not yet able to post up smaller guards, which is most of his competition. And he makes less than 70 percent of his free throws. Yet he leads this class in points per game and points per 48 minutes.
The fact that he has had so much success despite those weak spots suggests the obvious: He is a special talent who can find ways to be effective. And he should be able to improve, perhaps significantly, in each of those areas in the coming years.
Runner-up: Trey Burke, Jazz
Best Rebounder
Steven Adams, Thunder
Adams has advanced metrics on his side for this award, but he also earns the prize based just on the eye test. Watch him make the proper rebounding effort on each shot. See him grab, shove, push, all while moving his feet and positioning his body to be in a prime rebounding spot when the shot is released. Adams knows his role and it looks like he has embraced it fully.
He'll likely never lead the league in rebounds per game or rebound rate, but he has been a dominant offensive rebounder with those scorers next to him, and there's no reason to expect that can't continue for years.
Runner-up: Vitor Faverani, Celtics
Tough Guy Award
Steven Adams, Thunder
Adams earned this midseason award awhile ago, after Vince Carter hit Adams with a cheap forearm shiver to his head (in retaliation) and he didn't even react to it. Since then OKC's big man has delivered dozens of blows in the name of just playing hard and physical, and he hasn't lost his cool when opponents strike back.
Adams plays with great emotion but does not often let it impact his physical play. And that is the key to the process, as it helps him remain under control and focused, while his opponents are losing their minds.
Runner-up: None
Best Passer
Phil Pressey, Celtics
This might be the tightest race of them all. Consider that this class has three players in the top 10 of the entire league in assist rate. But Pressey has been a step above Nick Calathes and Gal Mekel thus far. Pressey is a lot like veteran point guard Ish Smith, a super-quick ball handler who lives to set up others.
Pressey is terrific at penetrating under control while waiting for teammates to cut or find an open spot. Then he'll find them with a crisp pass. He is dynamic in transition, too, and finds ways to help teammates get open even though defenders know he doesn't want to shoot. His nearly 4-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio shows you how under control and productive he is. Now, just like the other great passers in this class, he needs to show he can shoot if he wants to earn consistent playing time.
Runners-up: Nick Calathes, Grizzlies; Gal Mekel, Mavericks
Best Defender
Pero Antic, Hawks
Surprised? You wouldn't be if you watched him play. As a veteran pro, he understands his role in Atlanta's defensive strategies and often uses his size and strength to be in the right place at the right time.
Most importantly, he does not foul as much as you'd expect from a big rookie because he tries to "tall up" with arms straight up rather than lowering them in a poor attempt to block a shot or change it. The Hawks are a much better defensive team when he is in the game, and he has helped make up for an injured Al Horford far better than anyone could have expected.
Runner-up: Giannis Antetokounmpo
Best Athlete
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks
Victor Oladipo has been impressive athletically, but Antetokounmpo strikes fear in defenders when he comes swooping in from the wing in transition. Or when he chases a shooter down to block his shot. His physical characteristics combined with his quickness, speed, jumping ability and balance push Giannis to the top tier of NBA players who impact the game athletically.
He might be forever mentioned in scouting reports when there's a young prospect from a lower-level international league that looks like him. These kinds of athletic gifts are valuable enough to translate to the NBA game no matter where the player is from.
Runner up: Victor Oladipo, Magic
Best Quarterback
Trey Burke, Jazz
Today's point guard is similar to today's NFL quarterback in terms of what is typically expected of him. A point guard needs to make plays as a passer for others, is often asked to be a dynamic scorer, and has to do both of these things while managing the game and organizing the team possession after possession.
Burke plays on a slow-pace team, with lots of half-court, grind-it-out possessions, and he is managing the game beautifully for a young player. Remember, he has some young and talented teammates who need to be set up, so his job is not just about "getting his," and he can't just fly up and down the floor making plays like Carter-Williams can for the super-fast Sixers. But Burke has been up to the challenge.
Just as the Sixers can go into future drafts building around their top rookie, the Jazz can use both the draft and free agency to find the perfect pieces that fit next to their young bigs and their point guard.
Runner-up: Michael Carter-Williams, 76ers
Biggest Surprise
Tim Hardaway Jr., Knicks
Hardaway gets the edge over MCW simply because some people felt MCW was going to be a far better pro and, on the Sixers this season, had a great chance to be the ROY. Far fewer people thought Hardaway would be anything close to an impact player as a rookie on the Knicks. But in a league that values shooters and athletes more than ever, Hardaway is a perfect fit.
You might think that with his last name, coming from a great college team and to such a big city, that he would try to be a wizard with the basketball. But that's not who he is, and to his great credit he's not trying to pretend to be someone other than a very good athlete with a sweet shot (one reason why he has committed just three turnovers in 2014).
Runner-up: Michael Carter-Williams, 76ers
Most Disappointing
Anthony Bennett, Cavaliers
Obviously, when the top overall pick is performing as Bennett has, there's going to be lots of disappointed fans, coaches and executives. He is not playing at all now, having fallen from the rotation the past four games.
His issues have been well-chronicled. There's talk of having him play some games in the D-League, which makes a ton of sense. He should destroy that competition while playing a ton of minutes and perhaps gaining some much-needed confidence. If the draft is more about tomorrow than today, then the fans in Cleveland (spoiled from LeBron's and Kyrie's success) still might have a ton to be excited about.
Runner-up: Cody Zeller, Bobcats
Most Likely To Succeed (more in the second half than the first)
Victor Oladipo, Magic
There are plenty of guys to choose from in this category, as lots of rookies actually get better as the season evolves rather than hit the mythical rookie wall. But Oladipo has too much talent and athleticism to not find a better groove on a team that cares about developing its young talent.
He's been OK to this point, averaging 15 points, 4 rebounds and 4 assists, so he's not far from making a big leap in the next few months. Just a small uptick in his 3-point percentage can send him into next season coming off the best few months of his career -- a trend he has already started in 2014.
Runner-up: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks
Best Rookie
Michael Carter-Williams, 76ers
From his opening day performance to today, MCW has been the best rookie by a significant margin despite missing games due to injury. He resembles Damian Lillard in that he's a very good rookie who looks like a cornerstone piece moving forward.
With this loaded draft coming in June, the Sixers' front office can look for a great player who complements what MCW brings to the table, rather than seek just the best pure player. The best part about MCW, something that will factor heavily on draft day, is that he can help make other players better. He also can get a lot better himself. Carter-Williams is just touching the depth of his talent -- an enormous pool of potential that will take years to fully form. Exciting times for Sixers fans are on the way.
Runner-up: Trey Burke, Jazz
Best Pure Scorer
ROOKIE 50 RANKINGS
We're keeping track of every NBA rook. Here are the latest Top 50 rankings.
Rank Player Stock
1 Michael Carter-Williams
2 Trey Burke
3 Tim Hardaway Jr.
4 Victor Oladipo
5 Mason Plumlee
6 G. Antetokounmpo
7 Steven Adams
8 Kelly Olynyk
9 Hollis Thompson
10 Pero Antic
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Michael Carter-Williams, 76ers
This is a bit ironic, actually, as MCW was projected as a pass-first point guard. In reality, his skill game off the dribble, his ability to change speeds, his aggressiveness and feel for when to drive into gaps, and the space (and rules) of the NBA game have helped turn him into the kind of scoring guard the league covets.
Think about this: MCW is not a good finisher at the rim (below 50 percent). He is not much of a midrange threat, nor can he shoot the 3 (below 30 percent). He is not very strong. He is not yet able to post up smaller guards, which is most of his competition. And he makes less than 70 percent of his free throws. Yet he leads this class in points per game and points per 48 minutes.
The fact that he has had so much success despite those weak spots suggests the obvious: He is a special talent who can find ways to be effective. And he should be able to improve, perhaps significantly, in each of those areas in the coming years.
Runner-up: Trey Burke, Jazz
Best Rebounder
Steven Adams, Thunder
Adams has advanced metrics on his side for this award, but he also earns the prize based just on the eye test. Watch him make the proper rebounding effort on each shot. See him grab, shove, push, all while moving his feet and positioning his body to be in a prime rebounding spot when the shot is released. Adams knows his role and it looks like he has embraced it fully.
He'll likely never lead the league in rebounds per game or rebound rate, but he has been a dominant offensive rebounder with those scorers next to him, and there's no reason to expect that can't continue for years.
Runner-up: Vitor Faverani, Celtics
Tough Guy Award
Steven Adams, Thunder
Adams earned this midseason award awhile ago, after Vince Carter hit Adams with a cheap forearm shiver to his head (in retaliation) and he didn't even react to it. Since then OKC's big man has delivered dozens of blows in the name of just playing hard and physical, and he hasn't lost his cool when opponents strike back.
Adams plays with great emotion but does not often let it impact his physical play. And that is the key to the process, as it helps him remain under control and focused, while his opponents are losing their minds.
Runner-up: None
Best Passer
Phil Pressey, Celtics
This might be the tightest race of them all. Consider that this class has three players in the top 10 of the entire league in assist rate. But Pressey has been a step above Nick Calathes and Gal Mekel thus far. Pressey is a lot like veteran point guard Ish Smith, a super-quick ball handler who lives to set up others.
Pressey is terrific at penetrating under control while waiting for teammates to cut or find an open spot. Then he'll find them with a crisp pass. He is dynamic in transition, too, and finds ways to help teammates get open even though defenders know he doesn't want to shoot. His nearly 4-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio shows you how under control and productive he is. Now, just like the other great passers in this class, he needs to show he can shoot if he wants to earn consistent playing time.
Runners-up: Nick Calathes, Grizzlies; Gal Mekel, Mavericks
Best Defender
Pero Antic, Hawks
Surprised? You wouldn't be if you watched him play. As a veteran pro, he understands his role in Atlanta's defensive strategies and often uses his size and strength to be in the right place at the right time.
Most importantly, he does not foul as much as you'd expect from a big rookie because he tries to "tall up" with arms straight up rather than lowering them in a poor attempt to block a shot or change it. The Hawks are a much better defensive team when he is in the game, and he has helped make up for an injured Al Horford far better than anyone could have expected.
Runner-up: Giannis Antetokounmpo
Best Athlete
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks
Victor Oladipo has been impressive athletically, but Antetokounmpo strikes fear in defenders when he comes swooping in from the wing in transition. Or when he chases a shooter down to block his shot. His physical characteristics combined with his quickness, speed, jumping ability and balance push Giannis to the top tier of NBA players who impact the game athletically.
He might be forever mentioned in scouting reports when there's a young prospect from a lower-level international league that looks like him. These kinds of athletic gifts are valuable enough to translate to the NBA game no matter where the player is from.
Runner up: Victor Oladipo, Magic
Best Quarterback
Trey Burke, Jazz
Today's point guard is similar to today's NFL quarterback in terms of what is typically expected of him. A point guard needs to make plays as a passer for others, is often asked to be a dynamic scorer, and has to do both of these things while managing the game and organizing the team possession after possession.
Burke plays on a slow-pace team, with lots of half-court, grind-it-out possessions, and he is managing the game beautifully for a young player. Remember, he has some young and talented teammates who need to be set up, so his job is not just about "getting his," and he can't just fly up and down the floor making plays like Carter-Williams can for the super-fast Sixers. But Burke has been up to the challenge.
Just as the Sixers can go into future drafts building around their top rookie, the Jazz can use both the draft and free agency to find the perfect pieces that fit next to their young bigs and their point guard.
Runner-up: Michael Carter-Williams, 76ers
Biggest Surprise
Tim Hardaway Jr., Knicks
Hardaway gets the edge over MCW simply because some people felt MCW was going to be a far better pro and, on the Sixers this season, had a great chance to be the ROY. Far fewer people thought Hardaway would be anything close to an impact player as a rookie on the Knicks. But in a league that values shooters and athletes more than ever, Hardaway is a perfect fit.
You might think that with his last name, coming from a great college team and to such a big city, that he would try to be a wizard with the basketball. But that's not who he is, and to his great credit he's not trying to pretend to be someone other than a very good athlete with a sweet shot (one reason why he has committed just three turnovers in 2014).
Runner-up: Michael Carter-Williams, 76ers
Most Disappointing
Anthony Bennett, Cavaliers
Obviously, when the top overall pick is performing as Bennett has, there's going to be lots of disappointed fans, coaches and executives. He is not playing at all now, having fallen from the rotation the past four games.
His issues have been well-chronicled. There's talk of having him play some games in the D-League, which makes a ton of sense. He should destroy that competition while playing a ton of minutes and perhaps gaining some much-needed confidence. If the draft is more about tomorrow than today, then the fans in Cleveland (spoiled from LeBron's and Kyrie's success) still might have a ton to be excited about.
Runner-up: Cody Zeller, Bobcats
Most Likely To Succeed (more in the second half than the first)
Victor Oladipo, Magic
There are plenty of guys to choose from in this category, as lots of rookies actually get better as the season evolves rather than hit the mythical rookie wall. But Oladipo has too much talent and athleticism to not find a better groove on a team that cares about developing its young talent.
He's been OK to this point, averaging 15 points, 4 rebounds and 4 assists, so he's not far from making a big leap in the next few months. Just a small uptick in his 3-point percentage can send him into next season coming off the best few months of his career -- a trend he has already started in 2014.
Runner-up: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks
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Conley doesn't deserve it over Parker. You have to have one Spur in there. I also don't think Cousins deserves it more than Davis. For me the debate is between Howard and Cousins.
I'd go with these 8 (since Bryant isn't playing)
Paul, Parker, Lilliard, Harden, Dirk, Davis, Aldridge and either Howard or Cousins
I'd go with these 8 (since Bryant isn't playing)
Paul, Parker, Lilliard, Harden, Dirk, Davis, Aldridge and either Howard or Cousins
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