Six days to go until the draft, which takes place June 4-6, and we still don't know who's going first overall. Here's my best estimate for the first round as of Tuesday afternoon, as always based on intelligence gleaned from baseball sources about each team's preferences.
At the moment, I don't have a team taking California prep right-hander Lucas Giolito, who missed most of the spring with a minor elbow sprain, but I wouldn't interpret that to mean he won't go in the first round. (I had the Mariners taking him at No. 3 overall in my first mock draft, but I'm now hearing Seattle is no longer interested.) In the next few days, front offices will meet with their respective team doctors to discuss the medical reports of the top prospects, and we'll have a much better sense of where Giolito will go once that process is complete. Until then, I can't predict which team will take him, but he could easily end up in the top 15 picks once his elbow checks out.
Also absent: Lance McCullers Jr., a clear first-round talent who would certainly go in the back half of the first round if it becomes clear that he's signable there. The ripple effect from Giolito moving into the top half of the first round, or any other unexpected player jumping that high, is significant, and we should have a better sense of these possibilities by Friday, which is when my next mock draft comes out.
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Houston Astros
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Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford
The Astros intend to take whomever they believe is the best player, not the best player for the price, which makes sense given the historical value of the first overall pick. A few days ago I had Appel with a slight edge over Byron Buxton at this pick; today I think it's more or less even.
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Minnesota Twins[/h6]
Byron Buxton, OF, Appling County H.S. (Baxley, Ga.)
I've heard the Twins will take Appel if he's here, and if not, they are split between Buxton and Kyle Zimmer, who still isn't all the way back from a hamstring injury. In other words, if you could bet on Appel and Buxton going in the first two picks in either order, you'd be in good shape as of today.
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Seattle Mariners[/h6]
Mike Zunino, C, Florida
This is a weak year for college hitters, but Zunino is the best of the bunch. He doesn't have any standout tools, but no real weaknesses either. Seattle would take Buxton if he was here and is also strongly in on Correa. For whatever it's worth, the rumor that the Mariners are on Oklahoma State lefty Andrew Heaney won't die, although I really doubt they take him this high.
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Baltimore Orioles[/h6]
Carlos Correa, SS, Puerto Rico Baseball Academy
The O's want the best player available, period. They've been adamant about that all spring, and given the lack of depth in their system, it makes sense. I could also see Kyle Zimmer or Kevin Gausman here, and I've heard Albert Almora mentioned recently as well.
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Kansas City Royals[/h6]
Kevin Gausman, RHP, LSU
All arms are in play here right now -- including Gausman, Zimmer and Lance McCullers Jr. -- although I did also hear Albert Almora as a dark horse here. If the board blew up, they would also consider Zunino.
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Chicago Cubs[/h6]
Max Fried, LHP, Harvard-Westlake H.S., Studio City, Calif.
It will most likely be Fried, Almora or Zimmer here. Clemson third baseman Richie Shaffer is an extreme dark horse, but I don't see the board falling in a way to make him their pick.
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San Diego Padres[/h6]
Kyle Zimmer, RHP, San Francisco
They're hoping Zimmer or Correa gets to them, and I think there's a better than even chance that will happen. They could also end up with Fried, who would be a hell of a consolation prize.
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Pittsburgh Pirates[/h6]
Deven Marrero, SS, Arizona State
Although there is a strong industry consensus that Marrero is the Bucs' pick, I think they're still seriously exploring other options. I've also heard them on Chris Stratton, and I imagine they'd be open to any top-end player (such as Almora) who falls out of the top seven picks. Giolito is also a possibility here.
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Miami Marlins[/h6]
Albert Almora, CF, Mater Academy Charter (Hialeh Gardens, Fla.)
Not just because he's a local kid, but because he's a local kid who has both ceiling and probability thanks to his plus defense in center. Also hearing them on Fried, Marrero, Andrew Heaney, Courtney Hawkins.
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Colorado Rockies[/h6]
Courtney Hawkins, OF, Carroll (Texas) H.S.
Assuming Almora and Correa are gone (which is likely), they're on Hawkins, David Dahl and Gavin Cecchini. Hawkins has one of the quickest bats in the draft and plenty of power.
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Oakland Athletics[/h6]
Richie Shaffer, 3B, Clemson
Their mix is actually more high school (Russell, McCullers, Dahl, Gallo) than college, but Shaffer -- who has a very high probability of becoming a solid big leaguer -- would be too good to pass up here. Also heard Texas A&M righty Michael Wacha as a possibility.
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New York Mets[/h6]
David Dahl, CF, Oak Mountain H.S. (Birmingham, Ala.)
Dahl is a well-rounded athlete with a chance for five tools that are average or better. I'm also hearing Gavin Cecchini, Hawkins, Corey Seager and some college arms here, including Wacha.
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Chicago White Sox[/h6]
Matt Smoral, LHP, Solon (Ohio) H.S.
Smoral has a stress fracture in his foot that ended his spring in late March, and has had other injuries that are scaring some teams off him entirely. Hearing Chicago on college pitchers otherwise.
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Cincinnati Reds[/h6]
Andrew Heaney, LHP, Oklahoma State
Heaney isn't overpowering, but he's the best college southpaw in this draft. These next three arms (including Heaney) could go in any order and it wouldn't surprise anyone.
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Cleveland Indians[/h6]
Chris Stratton, RHP, Mississippi State
They're open to college or prep players, but a college arm is seen as most likely. Stratton has a chance for three above-average pitches, but the fact that he is already almost 22 years old means he has less time to reach his ceiling than other draftees.
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Washington Nationals[/h6]
Michael Wacha, RHP, Texas A&M
Wacha's ceiling is limited, but his advanced changeup makes him a likely big leaguer. I've also heard Dahl and Marrero here, and the Nats have been linked by scouts on the East Coast to Duke's Marcus Stroman, but it would be a big departure for GM Mike Rizzo: Of 16 pitchers he's taken in the first or second rounds as a scouting director for Arizona or while assistant GM or GM for Washington, none has been under 6-foot-2, and Stroman is 5-9.
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Toronto Blue Jays[/h6]
Gavin Cecchini, SS, Barbe, H.S. (Lake Charles, La.)
I'm also hearing Stanford's Stephen Piscotty here; his first-round range seems to be from Nos. 17 to 25. Otherwise, it's the usual cast of high school upside bats, including Dahl if he makes it this far. I don't think they'll take Mississippi prep outfielder D.J. Davis here, but they are on him.
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Los Angeles Dodgers[/h6]
Ty Hensley, RHP, Edmond (Okla.) Santa Fe H.S.
At 6-5 with a plus fastball, Hensley fits the mold of your classic top-of-the-rotation starter. I've also heard Dahl and Hensley here; haven't specifically heard North Carolina prep righty Ty Buttrey, but he'd fit their mold.
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St. Louis Cardinals[/h6]
Stryker Trahan, C, Acadiana H.S. (Lafayette, La.)
I think they take Stratton if he gets here. Have heard them on every premium high school bat -- including Dahl, Davis, Cecchini and Addison Russell -- as well as Piscotty and Hensley. Trahan, who had a poor spring, could be a bargain here since he has a real chance to hit, and with power. (This is the compensation pick the Cardinals got from the Angels for Albert Pujols.)
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San Francisco Giants[/h6]
Zach Eflin, RHP, Hagerty (Fla.) H.S.
They could go in a variety of directions, but apparently more on prep names than college. Eflin, who added some velocity this spring and has shot up draft boards, fits that bill. Dahl probably stops here, and Buttrey is also in their mix. There's also an outside shot at Tanner Rahier.
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Atlanta Braves[/h6]
Tanner Rahier, Palm Desert (Calif.) H.S.
Rahier is one of the more polished high school bats in this class and has a chance to stick at short. Also on Cal Poly outfielder Mitch Haniger, Missouri State righty Pierce Johnson and Buttrey.
[h6]Toronto Blue Jays[/h6]
.J. Davis, OF, Stone County (Miss.) H.S.
Davis is an 80 runner on the 20-80 scouting scale, but his swing needs work. I could see them take an arm here like Buttrey or Georgia prep right-hander Duane Underwood. (This is a compensation pick the Blue Jays got for failing to sign first-rounder Tyler Beede a year ago.)
[h6]St. Louis Cardinals[/h6]
Hunter Virant, LHP, Camarillo (Calif.) H.S.
At 6-3 and 172, Virant is very projectable, and looks like the kind of guy who could really add some velocity in pro ball. Rahier is also a possibility here, as well as the names I listed at No. 19.
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Boston Red Sox[/h6]
Tyler Naquin, OF, Texas A&M
The Sox will most likely take a college guy first, assuming one they like is on the board, and then go for upside with subsequent picks. Also hearing Rahier with them, here or at 31, if he gets that far.
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Tampa Bay Rays[/h6]
Stephen Piscotty, 3B, Stanford
Stanford emphasizes an extremely mechanical approach to hitting that often robs hitters of power, but it hasn't hindered Piscotty. The Rays are focused on the best player available here, and are wide open as a result -- I've heard them on prep and college guys, bats and arms.
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Arizona Diamondbacks[/h6]
Nick Travieso, RHP, McCarthy H.S. (Southwest Ranches, Fla.)
Missouri State's Pierce Johnson is also a possibility here. It would be interesting to see how much local pressure they'd face if ASU's Deven Marrero fell this far (which I doubt he will).
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Milwaukee Brewers[/h6]
Clint Coulter, C, Union H.S. (Camas, Wash.)
He may not stay behind the plate, but he'll hit, and he has the arm strength to shut down the running game. This pick is seen by the industry as pretty much a lock at this point. (This is a compensation pick from the Tigers for Prince Fielder.)
[h6]Milwaukee Brewers[/h6]
Lucas Sims, RHP, Brookwood (Ga.) H.S.
Sims features a low-90s fastball and a sharp, if inconsistent, curveball. They could take Virant if he gets here -- but I've also heard they'd prefer to take one college player with these two picks, and Coulter seems like the strongest bet among the prep guys they're considering. I haven't heard them linked to Florida lefty Brian Johnson, but if they wanted a college guy, he'd be the best one available given this scenario.
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Texas Rangers[/h6]
Duane Underwood, RHP, Pope H.S. (Marietta, Ga.)
I've also heard them with Sims and several other prep arms, including SoCal righty Shane Watson.
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New York Yankees[/h6]
Joey Gallo, 3B, Bishop Gorman H.S. (Las Vegas)
Gallo might be the best power hitter in the draft, but other than him, I'm hearing New York is primarily focused on arms, including Underwood, Puerto Rican prepster Jose Berrios and Washington state high schooler Mitch Gueller (a two-way guy, preferred by more teams as a pitcher). Other bats in play here are Haniger and Davis.
[h6]Boston Red Sox[/h6]
Marcus Stroman, RHP, Duke
There is a good chance Stroman goes a while before this, but since nearly all teams view him as a reliever, he's a better fit for a team with multiple picks. (This selection is compensation from the Phillies for Jonathan Papelbon.)