2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions

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ShaunHillFTW49 said:
not sure if srs, marlins sucked with those players
Anyways I though Buck was Manager of he Year "and its not even close" :smokin
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Strongly believe Buck should have won the award, but whatever - he's already got two. Good for Melvin, and the A's org.

Glad Dickey got his. Can't agree with Price over Verlander, but he had a great season.
 
Congrats to RA. Made it easier to watch another bad year from the team. The ultimate fan favorite right now. Hopefully, he's still in Queens next season.
 
Major props for Dickey, well deserved. His highlights all season were fun to watch.
 
I wonder if GMs secretly hate when their pitchers when awards like this. I would imagine it's one of the first things the agents use to justify a high price tag.
 
My AL and NL MVP ballots.

There's more attention paid to this year's AL MVP ballot than any award I can remember, in part because it's seen as a fight between two camps -- those who espouse advanced statistical analysis of baseball and those who really wish Billy Beane had never written that book. Mike Trout should win the award this year, but Miguel Cabrera probably will, as the narrative of "Triple Crown + playoffs + clutchy" takes over, but make no mistake about it: The tide has already turned, and the anti-math voters who engage in sciamachy should accept the fact that their opponents have already left the ring.



The NL race, on the other hand, is just as interesting for its lack of clarity, with five or maybe six deserving candidates who aren't easily separated even using the advanced metrics on which I typically rely. My choice reflects some subjective criteria yet also includes a lot of uncertainty, and while I think Buster Posey wins this award, hearing another name called on Thursday night wouldn't surprise me at all.



Just to make sure everyone's clear, I did not vote on either MVP award this year. I did vote for the NL Rookie of the Year award and discussed that ballot on Monday. These ballots are just hypotheticals.



American League

1. Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels
2. Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees
3. Miguel Cabrera, 3B, Detroit Tigers
4. Justin Verlander, RHP, Detroit Tigers
5. Adrian Beltre, 3B, Texas Rangers
6. Austin Jackson, CF, Detroit Tigers
7. Felix Hernandez, RHP, Seattle Mariners
8. David Price, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays
9. Alex Gordon, LF, Kansas City Royals
10. Ben Zobrist, RF/SS/2B, Tampa Bay Rays



The debate, which is likely to continue well past tonight's announcement, over who should win the AL MVP award is yet another example of old-guard sportswriters who, in refusing to acknowledge the quantum leap the industry has made in player evaluation, continue to fight last decade's war. Any rational analysis of the two players' seasons puts Trout comfortably ahead of Cabrera, as Cabrera's slight edge on offense (boosted by a better park and weaker competition) can't touch Trout's huge advantages in baserunning and defense.



If anything, we should be debating whether Cabrera was even the second-best player in the league this year, when both versions of WAR agree that he wasn't. (I wrote at length on the Trout/Cabrera debate and why Trout is the only logical choice back in September, an analysis that still applies today.)



Cabrera and Robinson Cano each had exactly 697 plate appearances this year, and Cabrera was slightly better, with nine more hits, 14 more points of OBP (reaching base 10 more times this season), and 56 more points of slugging (32 more total bases). Cano also played in a more favorable home park than Cabrera did this year. But Cabrera's offensive advantage is wiped out by Cano's massive advantage on defense, a swing of about 19-20 runs saved between the two players. Even a casual observer of the game can tell you that Cano is a good defender at second while Cabrera is a poor defender at third, a difference that is more than enough to put Cano above Cabrera on my ballot.



The ballot also should put to rest the puerile idea that Cabrera "carried" his team to the playoffs (and to fewer wins than the Angels had). Cabrera's help should be all over every voter's ballot in the form of ace Justin Verlander, the best pitcher in the AL this year, and center fielder Austin Jackson. No player can ever carry a baseball team by himself; even the greatest seasons in history have been worth about 10 wins above replacement, which is just a small fraction of the number of games a good team wins.



National League



1. Buster Posey, C, San Francisco Giants
2. Andrew McCutchen, CF, Pittsburgh Pirates
3. David Wright, 3B, New York Mets
4. Ryan Braun, LF, Milwaukee Brewers
5. Chase Headley, 3B, San Diego Padres
6. Yadier Molina, C, St. Louis Cardinals
7. Jason Heyward, RF, Atlanta Braves
8. Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
9. Michael Bourn, CF, Atlanta Braves
10. R.A. Dickey, RHP, New York Mets



Any of the top five guys could win this award and it would be easily justified by the voters -- it's a close enough race that advanced metrics looking at value don't give us much more than direction, rather than the clear picture they give us at the top of the AL value leaderboard.



Posey did lead the NL in both versions of WAR, but by 0.1 (Fangraphs) and 0.2 (Baseball Reference), neither of which is close to definitive. However, catcher defense is also one of the hardest aspects of the game to measure -- although we've seen solid strides recently in areas like pitch-framing -- and I will argue that the value of Posey's defense is slightly undercounted in those metrics.



I wouldn't argue with any voter who wanted to boost Posey over the next four names because his team was in a playoff race, although I didn't use that criterion myself. I also think it's to his credit that he played two positions, both of them well, even if I couldn't tell you how we might begin to assign a value to that. If you wanted to argue Braun or McCutchen or even Molina, you could make a compelling case without leaning too heavily on intangibles.



I was surprised to see Braun listed among the five finalists for the award because I assumed, incorrectly I guess, that some voters would either move him down their ballots a few spots or would omit him entirely out of spite over his failed-yet-overturned PED test that came after he'd been awarded the NL MVP last year. That failed test, which, in official terms, never happened, should have no bearing whatosever on this year's award voting, but I expected that it would. Of course, had the voters chosen the player who was in fact most valuable last year, Matt Kemp, the ensuing controversy over the award and calls for the BBWAA to revoke it wouldn't have happened.



The player I'm most curious about in the voting is one with no chance to win, Chase Headley, whose case is built on adjusting for his power-killing home park and accounting for his defense. (Remember when the Padres moved him to left because they had Kevin Kouzmanoff at third? Neither do they.)



Headley has turned himself into an above-average defender at third, and like Adrian Gonzalez before him, he probably lost some power production to his home park, slugging 90 points better on the road in 2012. Of course, Headley also led the league in that curious anachronism, the RBI, which could cause massive cognitive dissonance in those determined not to consider players whose stock is elevated by the new math.
 
Th3RealF0lkBlu3s said:
I wonder if GMs secretly hate when their pitchers when awards like this. I would imagine it's one of the first things the agents use to justify a high price tag.
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i thought the same thing today :lol:

I'm not the most hardcore baseball fan but I hope Miggy wins just because I don't like the super stat heads :tongue:
 
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Execs concerned about Marlins' big trade.

There will be a lot of angry feelings expressed at the owners' meetings about the amount of revenue-sharing dollars given to the Miami Marlins through the years, some executives predicted. There will be a lot of opinions rendered there about the recklessness with which the Marlins executed their plans, regardless of their true motives -- whether it be a complete cash grab, or about setting up the club for future sale, or whether they actually want to win.




But two high-ranking club executives had a different take on what the Marlins' massive sell-off could really mean, in the big picture. "A couple of years from now," said one official, "we might look back on this as a warning sign."




He was talking about the split between the Haves and the Have-Nots, which is increasingly becoming a concern for some of the smaller-market teams. Officials from some of the Have-Nots were furious about the terms of the labor agreement that went into effect this year, believing that it really hurt the efforts of the small-market teams to compete. Not only did the agreement fail to provide additional draft picks or spending stipends for the international market for the Have-Nots, with the draft and signing caps, it essentially put clubs like the Cleveland Indians and Tampa Bay Rays under the same rules as the New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers and Boston Red Sox.

Some executives from the Have-Nots feel that not only do they not have access to the best players in the free-agent market, but as the cost of arbitration-eligible players continues to rise, they are forced to consider trading their own drafted and developed players much earlier than they want. (An example is David Price, who could be shopped this winter.)




The Marlins are, in the baseball world, a Have-Not. They looked at the landscape and decided that they probably wouldn't contend, and took the draconian step of slashing their payroll to the bone. They may have done it clumsily, or arrogantly -- take your pick -- but the two officials say that as clubs like the Los Angeles Angels, Texas Rangers and Dodgers gain more revenue through local television deals and the gap between the Haves and Have-Nots grows, other teams will be faced with the same choice as the Marlins very soon.




"The Marlins made the decision that they would make money and not really worry about competing," said an AL official. "You might see other teams do the exact same thing -- unless the rules change."




As the current labor deal runs its course, some baseball executives predict, there will be significant infighting between the two camps -- the Haves and Have-Nots -- and the Marlins' sell-off may have been the precursor of all of that.




• Here's the most significant problem that the Marlins' decision has created for the organization -- something that some rival baseball executives were forecasting last December, when they fretted over their concern that Miami would go through a massive sell-off: an effective boycott of the team by the consumers in the area.




It's one thing to have a community disinterested in the product, unwilling to make the journey to a imperfectly placed ballpark, which was the Marlins' situation for years. It's a whole other thing to have angry taxpayers making a point of aggressively refusing to buy your product, which is where the franchise seems to be today.




The players' union has already made contact with the league office about this transaction, as Andrew Keh writes.




David Samson says the sell-off is meant to lift the team out of the cellar.




There is a history of mistrust between the Marlins' fans and the local team, writes Dan Le Batard.




Bud Selig should take the 2015 All-Star Game away from the Marlins, writes Dave George. Baseball needs to watch over this mess, writes Greg Cote.

Don't expect the commissioner to rescind this deal, writes Clark Spencer.



Toronto's perspective




From the Blue Jays' perspective: The Top 6 ripple effects of this deal, from Ken Fidlin. Toronto is in the final stages of its managerial search.




This deal comes with plenty of risk, writes John Lott. No matter how you slice it, the Blue Jays win this deal, writes Jeff Blair.



Cy Young talk



• It was an SEC/Tennessee sweep of the Cy Young Awards, with R.A. Dickey (Tennessee) and David Price (Vanderbilt) winning. Price was thrilled and seemed totally overwhelmed when he heard that he had won, almost out of breath. Dickey looked like he was fighting back emotion when he heard the news.




Dickey was really proud, he said. He has had an amazing journey, writes Wayne Coffey.




Fernando Rodney may have cost Justin Verlander back-to-back Cy Young Awards.




Lynn Henning voted for Verlander and has no problem with Price winning. Totally agree with this line of thought. If I had had a vote, I would've picked Price, but if Verlander had won, I wouldn't have disagreed. Both were entirely worthy.




Mark Whicker says Jered Weaver was overlooked.



Hot Stove buzz



• Mark Bowman writes on Twitter that B.J. Upton is the Braves' No. 1 target among free agents. And oh, by the way, he may well be the No. 1 target for the Phillies as well.






Hunter Should Help Tigers in RF

Torii Hunter will be a big upgrade in right field for the Tigers. He should benefit Detroit both in OPS and runs saved, two areas the AL champions' right fielders struggled in 2012. Hunter had an .817 OPS last season and ranked third in MLB with 15 defensive runs saved.


Lowest OPS, runs saved
by RFs in 2012




Team

OPS




Tigers

.641



Astros

.650



Mariners

.659



Royals

.667



Cubs

.688




Team

Runs saved




Mets

-24



Tigers

-17



Indians

-15



Royals

-13



Rangers

-13




-- ESPN Stats & Information




• The Detrot Tigers closed out their deal with Torii Hunter, after he targeted them. Hunter joined the Tigers' quest, writes Bob Wojnowski. Hunter brings leadership, writes Tony Paul.




Check out the table to the right, which was put together by Will Cohen of ESPN Stats & Information, which shows just how good of a fit Hunter is for Detroit. One other thing to note: Hunter was third among right fielders with 15 defensives runs saved, so not only are the Tigers getting an upgrade, they are getting a major upgrade.



Hunter produced a career-high 5.5 WAR last season in his age-36 season, as he slashed .313/.365/.451 (BA/OBP/SLG). It was the first time in his career he batted over .300 in a season. However, the Tigers should NOT expect Hunter to repeat that type of production next season.



• Hunter struck out at a career-high rate last year (22.8 percent of his PAs).



• After walking at an above-average rate for three straight seasons, Hunter drew walks at his lowest rate in five years with the Angels (6.5 percent of PAs).



• He posted his lowest isolated power (extra bases per at-bat) since 2000 (.139).



• How, then, did Hunter have such a good season? The answer: luck. Hunter posted a .313 batting average on the strength of a .389 BABIP (batting average on balls in play), the second-highest mark in baseball behind Dexter Fowler (.390). The league-average BABIP was .297 last season, and Hunter's career .301 suggests his 2012 season was a big outlier.


Moves, deals and decisions



1. The Cardinals' wish list has been modified, writes Derrick Goold.



2. Will Rhymes signed with the Nationals.



3. Tony Tarasco joined the Washington coaching staff.



4. The White Sox signed an infielder.



5. Brian Fuentes is retiring.

Tonight is Not a War on WAR.

The MVP awards are announced tonight. Buster Posey is going to win, and deservedly so. Miguel Cabrera is also going to win, and he’s not the worst choice the voters have ever made. Cabrera had a fantastic season. This isn’t Juan Gonzalez in 1996 or anything. But, as you almost certainly know by now, I happen to think Mike Trout was both better and more valuable this year. I’ve already written extensively on their respective seasons, so if you want to know why I support Trout, I’d suggest any of these three articles from a couple of months ago.

Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera, and Measuring Value
The AL MVP Debate: We Did This Two Years Ago
Trout Versus Cabrera: Offense Only, Context Included

I’m kind out of things to say about Trout and Cabrera, though. Everything that could possibly be covered has been covered. Anyone who could possibly be swayed has been swayed. At this point, everything else is just arguing for the sake of arguing.

I do hope, however, that tonight isn’t seen as kind of referendum on WAR. Because the pro-Trout people tend to also be pro-WAR people, there’s a tendency to see any argument for Trout as being based on accepting WAR at face value. Really, though, the pro-Trout argument has nothing to do with WAR, because the disagreements between the two sides aren’t about how we should weight their relative offensive performances, how we should handle position adjustments, or whether replacement levels and park factors are arbitrary or accurate. The pro-Trout argument essentially boils down to two main points:

1. The Most Valuable Player can come from a non-playoff team.

2. RBIs aren’t a useful indicator of a player’s value.

And guess what – these exact same two arguments have been going on every year since the beginning of time. Or, at least, since the beginning of Bill James‘ time. These are the arguments about the MVP race every single winter. They were the arguments last year, when Ryan Braun beat out Matt Kemp in the NL MVP race. They were the arguments in 2003, when Alex Rodriguez won the award on a last place team. They were the arguments in both 1996 and 1998, when Juan Gonzalez racked up two MVP awards that he didn’t deserve.

While WAR has become the symbol for the pro-Trout argument, at the end of the day, this is really the same argument that has been going on for 20 or 30 years. If the Tigers hadn’t made the playoffs, or Cabrera hadn’t led the league in runs batted in, we wouldn’t be having this discussion. This entire discussion is about the validity of those specific points, and those two points have been at the heart of nearly every MVP argument since. The names change, but the discussion remains the same.

A lot of voters — an overwhelming majority, I’d say — put a lot of stock in whether a team makes the playoffs, and a good chunk of those are happy to defend the virtues of RBIs. Until and unless WAR incorporates those two factors, it’s never going to be a persuasive argument for that bloc of voter. And WAR is intentionally designed to not include those factors, so for a large population of the BBWAA, WAR will never be a useful tool in determining the MVP.

And that’s why this vote really has nothing to do with WAR. WAR is essentially a proxy in this whole thing, just like cell phone usage is a proxy in presidential politics. Young voters tend to use cell phones, and young voters tend to vote for democrats, but young voters are not voting for democrats because they own cellphones. In the same way, young voters tend to prefer Mike Trout, and young voters tend to like WAR, but they’re not preferring Mike Trout simply because he has a higher WAR. They’re preferring Mike Trout because they’ve discarded the ideas that an MVP has to come from a playoff team and that RBIs are useful measures of a player’s value.

Without those two boxes to check, Cabrera’s MVP case falls apart. Team divisional placement — I can’t even call it team wins, as I originally wrote it, because the Angels won more games than the Tigers this year — and RBIs are the foundation of Cabrera’s case. Those of us who have an affinity for WAR generally don’t put a lot of stock in those things as measures of value. People who have distaste for WAR generally do put a lot of stock in those things. And, just as is the case pretty much every year, the winner will be decided based on how many voters still believe in the value of RBIs and whether a team makes the playoffs or not.

This debate has been framed as WAR vs Traditional Stats. But it’s really not that at all. No one who would vote for Mike Trout simply looked at the WAR leaderboards and decided that it was case closed. No one who voted for Miguel Cabrera looked at the WAR leaderboards and decided to vote for Cabrera to stick it to the nerds. The AL MVP is not a war on WAR. It’s a continuation of the same argument we’ve been having as long as I’ve followed baseball. And until we come to some kind of agreement on RBIs and whether an MVP can come from a non-playoff team, we’ll continue to have these same arguments every winter.

Trout Versus Cabrera: Offense Only, Context Included.

The AL MVP debate continues to rage on, and at this point, most of the arguments have already been made on both sides. If you think the Triple Crown should always be rewarded with an MVP, you’re voting for Miguel Cabrera. If you think the winner of the award has to come from a playoff team, you’re voting for Miguel Cabrera. If you think that WAR is a decent measure of player value, you’re voting for Trout. At this point, both sides are basically just yelling at each other, and no one is changing their minds.

However, for those who are uncomfortable with any of those positions and might still be on the fence, I wanted to offer one more perspective on the issue. The reality is that the case for Cabrera requires the assumption that baserunning and defense are of marginal value, and that position players should really by evaluated by their hitting statistics. The case for Cabrera also wants you to take context into account, since Cabrera drove in so many more runs than Trout did, and wants Cabrera to receive credit for his accomplishments with men on base. Interestingly enough, we have a metric here on FanGraphs that measures only offense and credits hitters for their performances with men on base. At the risk of adding to the alphabet soup, I think it’s worth looking at this little-used metric that measures exactly what the Cabrera contingent wants us to measure.

This metric is called RE24. It’s been on the site for years, and is available as part of our Win Probability section. We don’t use it a lot, because in general we prefer to talk about players from a context-neutral perspective, but for the purpose of this discussion, it might just be the perfect metric.

RE24 is essentially the difference between the run expectancy when a hitter comes to the plate and when his at-bat ends. For example, September 16th, Cabrera came to the plate against Joe Smith with runners at first and second and two outs, a situation where the Tigers would be expected to score 0.33 runs on average. Cabrera hit a three run home run, so they actually scored three runs, and RE24 gives Cabrera credit for +2.67 runs, the gap between what they were expected to score and what they actually scored.

Unlike with context-neutral statistics like wRC+, RE24 takes the number of outs and number of baserunners into account. It does not assume that all home runs are equal, nor does it treat a strikeout with a man on third base and one out as just another out. The rewards for performing with men on base are higher, and the blame for failing in those same situations is steeper as well. This is a metric that essentially quantifies the total offensive value of a player based on the situations that he actually faced. This is not a theoretical metric. If you hit a three run home run, you get more credit than if you hit a solo home run. If you are consistently getting hits with two outs to drive in runs, you get more credit than if those hits come with no outs and the bases empty. And, of course, it’s only an offensive metric, so there’s no defensive component, no position adjustments, and no replacement level. This is just straight up offense, adjusted for the context of the situations that they faced.

Here’s the AL leaderboard for this season. If you don’t want to click the link, I’ll just reproduce the top five here.

1. Edwin Encarnacion: +55.84 runs
2. Mike Trout: +54.27
3. Prince Fielder: +50.59
4. Miguel Cabrera: +47.43
5. Josh Hamilton: 44.44

Offense only. Context Included. Trout is just barely behind Edwin Encarnacion for the league lead, and slightly ahead of Miguel Cabrera, who is actually second on on his own team.

I know these new-fangled “advanced” stats can be scary, but this isn’t some kind of black box where you just have to take our word for it. We have RE24 on each player’s Play Log, so you can see the exact amount of value that each player was credited with on every single offensive play they were involved in all year long. Here’s the top five plays from Cabrera’s play log, for instance:

9/16 vs Joe Smith, 2 on, 2 out, 3 run HR: +2.67 runs
9/18 vs Jesse Chavez, 3 on, 0 out, Grand Slam: +2.16 runs
9/29 vs Casey Fien, 2 on, 0 out, 3 run HR: +2.00 runs
4/8 vs Alfredo Aceves, 2 on, 0 out, 3 run HR: +1.99 runs
7/24 vs Joe Smith, 1 on, 2 outs, 2 run HR: +1.88 runs

There’s evidence of Cabrera’s monstrous clutch September in RE24, as his three most valuable outcomes all came in the last couple of weeks. In fact, Mike Trout only had one plate appearance all year where his RE24 was over +2 runs — a three run homer off Felix Hernandez in August — so Cabrera’s certainly had more big moments where his ability to drill the ball over the wall created runs for the Tigers offense.

So, why is Trout ahead of Cabrera? And, for that matter, why is Cabrera behind even his own teammate, Prince Fielder, as well as Encarnacion, who is not even in the MVP discussion?

It comes back to double plays. I noted a few weeks ago that Cabrera had hit into an AL leading 28 double plays. Turns out, a bunch of those were big-time rally killers. 12 of the 28 double plays Cabrera hit into lowered the run expectancy by at least one run; Trout only had two plate appearances all season where the run expectancy went down that much in a single play. Because RE24 is available for every play, and easily accessible from the play logs, it’s easy to put each player’s individual performances into groups, so we can see the distribution of their offensive events.



Player

+1 and up

0 to +1

0 to -1

-1 and down



Trout

54

269

388

2



Cabrera

77

219

406

12


Cabrera had 23 more highly visible significant offensive plays that generated +1 runs or more than expected based on the situation he was placed in. Those plays are extremely valuable, and Cabrera was credited with 97 runs in those 77 plays. Meanwhile, Trout only created 66 runs in his 54 big plays, so we’re looking at a 31 run advantage for Cabrera in high visibility plays. This is what’s driving Cabrera’s narrative – everyone remembers these plays, and saw Cabrera come through in big situations more often than they saw Trout do the same.

However, Trout makes up the gap — and then some — in the other 600+ plays that matter as well. While he had 23 fewer big positive plays, he had 50 additional smaller positive plays, all of which contributed to the Angels offensive performance. He also had 28 fewer negative value plays, including 10 fewer that were extremely negative, thanks primarily to his ability to stay out of the double play.

You can go through each player’s play logs and see exactly where they earned and lost credit. There’s no replacement level here. We’re not dealing with defensive metrics that require some subjective inputs and can’t be easily replicated. This is just pure offense, and the total value of all the plays that both Trout and Cabrera were involved in.

And Trout still comes out on top. Ignore defense. Ignore things like going first to third on a single, or taking the extra base on a fly ball. Ignore WAR. Trout still wins. This is how amazing his season actually was. Even if you strip away the things that make Mike Trout special, he was still the best offensive performer in the American League this year, even while starting the season in the minors. This isn’t just the best performance of 2012 – it’s one of the best individual performances in the history of baseball.

Boston Red Sox Top 15 Prospects (2012-13).

The Boston Red Sox organization boasts both high-ceiling talent and depth within the system although a number of prospects are coming off of tough seasons. The 2013 season could be a key turning point for the club as those young players look to add a little more shine back to their prospect status.



#1 Xander Bogaerts (SS)


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Age

PA

H

2B

HR

BB

SO

SB

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA



19

531

146

37

20

44

106

5

.307

.374

.524

.398


Opening Day Age: 20
2012 Level: A+/AA
Acquired: 2009 international FA
Projected 2013 Level: AA/MLB

Bogaerts is an exciting prospect who is just beginning to get the attention he deserves from the non-Boston crowd. One of the best hitting prospects in the minors, the native of Aruba played the 2012 season at the age of 19 and reached double-A. He has an advanced hitting approach and generates outstanding power despite having a slender frame with tons of projection remaining. His pop comes from above-average bat speed.

Bogaerts had immediate success at double-A – albeit in a small sample of 23 games – but his approach deteriorated with his walk rate dropping from 9.9% in high-A to 1.0%. He’ll need to be more patient against the advanced pitching in an effort to get the best pitches to drive. A contact I spoke with said Bogaerts has a number of things working in his favor as a hitter, including pitch recognition, consistency, and the potential for plate discipline. He said the young player “gets pull happy and expands the zone a bit” and needs to focus on taking the ball back up the middle; he doesn’t need to pull the ball to hit it with authority.

When I saw him play in A-ball, Bogaerts looked extremely confident despite his inexperience and age. He was watching balls into the catcher’s mitt and taking lots of pitches. I was also impressed by his quiet batting stance and easy-to-repeat hitting mechanics.

The big question with Bogaerts is his future defensive home. Currently a shortstop, there are concerns that the 6’3” infielder could eventually get too big for the position. The contact I spoke with, though, thinks he’ll remain at his current position stating that the prospect has made “impressive fundamental improvements.” He added that Bogaerts possesses a strong arm good range and athleticism.

Now 20, the top prospect in the system could spent the entire season playingin the upper tiers ofthe minor leaguers but could also receivea brief cup of coffee in the majors at the end of the year. Bogaerts has excellent make-up and baseball intellect and should continue to excel despite the mounting attention and pressures of being a future corner stone of the franchise. The contact stated, “He has a good time playing the game and hasn’t been fazed by anything.”

Additional Notes

Early in 2011, Chris Mellen of Sox Prospects mentioned Xander Bogaerts in passing as a player to look out for once he arrived in Greenville. Little did I know Bogaerts would present as one of the best prospects I’ve scouted in person. At best, the Red Sox have an elite offensive force at the shortstop position. A more likely scenario is for Bogaerts to slide to a corner where his ceiling is that of a perennial All-Star. (Mike Newman)



#2 Matt Barnes (P)


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Age

G

GS

IP

H

HR

K/9

BB/9

ERA

FIP



22

25

25

119.2

97

6

10.00

2.18

2.86

2.58


Opening Day Age: 22
2012 Level: A/A+
Acquired: 2011 draft (19th overall)
Projected 2013 Level: AA/AAA

Selected 19th overall in 2011 in a draft that also added fellow Top 15 prospects Blake Swihart, Henry Owens, Jackie Bradley and Mookie Betts into the system, Barnes dominated A-ball last season and showed continued improvements as a professional. The right-hander’s repertoire includes an above-average fastball that works in the 92-95 mph range and can touch the upper 90s. A contact I spoke with said Barnes needs to improve his fastball command, but it shows an impressive combination of velocity and life.

The prospect also has a curveball that currently flashes above-average and has the potential to be a plus pitch. The key for Barnes, I’m told, is to focus on improving his changeup in an effort to round out his repertoire. The baseball contact I spoke with said the pitcher learned a valuable lesson in 2012 when it came to the importance of the off-speed pitch. “Later in the year when he wasn’t able to rely on the fastball [due too inconsistent command], the changeup became an important weapon for him.”

When I watched Barnes pitch, I was impressed with how quickly he worked. He had an easy delivery and threw a lot of strikes, going right after the hitters. Despite his size, it appears as though he has more room to fill out and add strength to his frame. Barnes should open 2013 in double-A and could reach the majors in the second half of the season. He has the ceiling of a No. 2 starter and should reach it with continued polish and confidence in his abilities.



#3 Jackie Bradley (OF)


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Age

PA

H

2B

HR

BB

SO

SB

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA



22

576

147

42

9

87

89

23

.317

.431

.483

.411


Opening Day Age: 22
2012 Level: A+/AA
Acquired: 2011 draft (40th overall)
Projected 2013 Level: AA/AAA/MLB

Bradley entered his junior year of college as a potential first round pick but he struggled offensively and ended up having surgery on an injured wrist. Boston wisely nabbed him with the 40th overall selection in the supplemental first round and he’s produced outstanding offensive numbers since turning pro.

The left-handed hitting outfielder reached double-A in his first full season after dominting high-A ball where he posted a 180 wRC+ in 67 games. His batting average dipped below .300 in double-A but he still produced a solid line, showing line-drive pop, a solid feel for the strike zone and held his own against southpaws. He’s not a base stealer but Bradley has some guile on the base paths. Defensively, he has the potential to be a plus defender thanks to his range, arm and instincts. As a talent evaluator stated, “Jackie is an impact defender with uncanny ability to get to the baseball.”

Bradley could open 2013 back in double-A but he should also see significant time in triple-A. He could be ready to assume a full-time position in a big league outfield by 2014. Depending on what happens with Jacoby Ellsbury, Bradley could be Boston’s center- or left-fielder of the future. His skill set could make him a solid No. 2 hitter in the line-up.



#4 Allen Webster (P)


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Age

G

GS

IP

H

HR

K/9

BB/9

ERA

FIP



22

29

24

130.2

133

2

8.89

4.20

3.86

3.26


Opening Day Age: 23
2012 Level: AA
Acquired: 2012 trade (from Dodgers)
Projected 2013 Level: AAA/MLB

After making just two starts after coming over from the Los Angeles Dodgers last summer during the blockbuster trade involving Josh Beckett, Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford, Boston still doesn’t know exactly what they have with Webster, but they’re intrigued. A talent evaluator was impressed with what he saw in a small sample size after the trade, “The pure stuff is impressive… the fastball was consistently in the mid-90s… He has significant upside.”

That same contact stated that Webster flashed a plus breaking ball. He said the young pitcher needs to be more aggressive and attack hitters with his fastball, if he hopes to dominated as much as his stuff indicates he should. When he’s on, the right-hander produces a lot of ground-ball outs thanks to natural sinking action. Although Webster did not showcase his changeup much after switching organizations, the contact I spoke with felt the hurler could still stick in the starting rotation with the three pitches he currently utilizes but that improved command and control are both needed.

Webster spent the 2012 season – split between two organizations – at the double-A level and should be ready for an assignment to triple-A. He’s probably three to six months of seasoning away from contributing at the big league level. The North Carolina native has the ceiling of a No. 2 or 3 starter; if his command and control do not improve enough, though, he could perhaps develop into a dominating high-leverage reliever.

Additional Notes

On two separate occasions, Webster was as good as any pitching prospect I’ve seen for four innings. Then, the wheels fell off as the tired and quickly lost velocity. At his best, Webster’s fastball was 94-96 MPH, touching 98. He also throws a slider, curveball and changeup which vary in effectiveness depending on the outing. If the Red Sox can help Webster fill out his frame, they have a mid-rotation starter. If not, then the potential is there for him to become a shut down reliever. (Mike Newman)



#5 Garin Cecchini (3B)


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Age

PA

H

2B

HR

BB

SO

SB

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA



21

526

139

38

4

61

90

51

.305

.394

.433

.380


Opening Day Age: 21
2012 Level: A
Acquired: 2010 draft (4th round)
Projected 2013 Level: A+/AA

On the surface, Cecchini is a very interesting prospect. He’s a solid hitter with a good idea of the strike zone and decent pitch recognition. He also possesses good bat speed and will take a walk. Unfortunately, he doesn’t possess the power teams look for from a third baseman (.127 isolate slugging rate in 2012) and the Red Sox organization has a plethora of hot corner options, including big league incumbent Will Middlebrooks and current shortstop prospect Xander Bogaerts.

Cecchini stole more than 50 bases in 2012 but he has modest speed and excels due to strong base running instincts. A contact I spoke with said Cecchini is one of the best base runners in the system and is also one of the most advanced hitters. He said the prospect could eventually develop average or better power. “His [current] approach is up the middle and the other way… As he moves up… we’ll see those [power numbers] improve.”

When asked about his defense, the talent evaluator I spoke with said Cecchini needs to improve at third base but he has the arm strength for the position. The contact said he needs to work on his agility and his range going side to side “but he’s definitely shown the ability to stay there.”

When I watched Cecchini play I was quite taken with his abilities at third base. He made a couple of nice running plays – one coming in and one going to his right -on tough ground balls. At the plate, I noticed that he had a wide, well-balanced base with slightly bent knees. He wasn’t afraid to go the other way and took the pitch where it was thrown, not trying to do too much. His swing mechanics were a little inconsistent with a longer swing during his first at-bat before becoming much quicker to the ball as the game progressed. He didn’t always swing atthe best pitches.

Cecchini will open 2013 in high-A ball and should be ready for the majors around late 2014 or 2015. Left-handed hitters with the ability to hit for a high average are often in demand, whether as a big league regular or part-time contributor. The development of his power tool will be key in determining his future role.

Additional Notes

Cecchini is a bit of a tweener whose statistical line was more impressive than his tools on the field. His 50+ steals are simply not sustainable at the higher levels and I question whether he has more than 10-12 home runs in his bat. However, .285/.350/.425 with average defense is still a three win player at the Major League level. (Mike Newman)



#6 Henry Owens (P)


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Age

G

GS

IP

H

HR

K/9

BB/9

ERA

FIP



19

23

22

101.2

100

10

11.51

4.16

4.87

3.49


Opening Day Age: 20
2012 Level: A
Acquired: 2011 draft (36th overall)
Projected 2013 Level: A+

The 36th overall selection during the 2011 amateur draft, Owens did not officially pick up a baseball until 2012 when the organization gave the 19-year-old hurler an aggressive assignment to full-season A-ball. The southpaw responded with a solid season that included 130 strikeouts in 101.2 innings of work.

Owens, now 20, showed signs of tiring late in the year and elevated the ball a lot in August, resulting in very high fly-ball rates — although the 6’6” lefty was always more of a fly-ball pitcher. He needs to learn to leverage his height and get a better downward angle on his pitches to induce more ground-ball outs.

I watched Owens pitch in late August and he had a tendency to fall forward early in his delivery, dragging his arm behind him. He has a cross-fire motion with a low 3/4 arm slot, both of which help add deception to his delivery. I was a little surprised with the lack of life on his fastball. Owens threw heaters almost exclusively until the second inning when the opponents jumped all over him.

He got much better when he started mixing in all three of his pitches. He showed a good, but inconsistent, curveball, and a potentially-plus changeup that he used to strike out some hitters. The fastball command, which was also inconsistent – especially on the arm side – is key for helping him set up the change of pace.

A contact I spoke with said Owens has a chance to be a top-to-mid-rotation starter with further development. “He has a three-pitch mix with a deceptive fastball – up to 94 mph this year – a plus changeup, and a future above-average curveball… He needs to get stronger and that will help him maintain his delivery, command and quality. He is left handed with a very advanced feel for pitching, changing speeds and attacking hitters.”

Additional Notes

Having seen Owens’ final start of the 2012 season, it’s safe to say he was not at his best. The left-hander I did see was 91-93 MPH, touching 94 with an upper-60s curveball and changeup. While I was impressed with his fastball movement and late breaking curveball, it’s impossible to not wonder if such a slow off-speed pitch is a legitimate offering or trickery. (Mike Newman)



#7 Blake Swihart (C/DH)


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Age

PA

H

2B

HR

BB

SO

SB

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA



20

378

90

17

7

26

68

5

.262

.307

.395

.318


Opening Day Age: 21
2012 Level: A
Acquired: 2011 draft (26th overall)
Projected 2013 Level: A+

Switch-hitting catchers with above-average offensive abilities are rare, which helped make Swihart desirable as the 26th overall selection of the 2011 draft out of a New Mexico high school. A $2.5 million contract prevented the athletic backstop from following through on his commitment to the University of Texas.

Swihart’s calling card probably will always be his offense. A contact said, “He is athletic with fast hands and good hand-eye. He’s better when he tries to work through the middle of the field with line drives… He has more line-drive than loft in his swing but some of those line drives will carry the wall.” A future projection of 10-12 home runs and 30-plus doubles was given.

Like all young hitting prospects, Swihart still has work to do at the plate. “He needs to work on his pitch selectivity and let the ball travel more,” the talent evaluator said. “His swing consistency from both sides is a work-in-progress. He believes he can hit anything so he will predetermine swings on occasion which gets him in trouble.” When I personallywatched him play, I felt Swihart could be shorter to the ball and his swing got loopy at times.

Despite his abilities at the plate, there are still some who believe Swihart has a lot of work to do before he proves capable of playing behind the plate at the big league level. The Red Sox organization, though, believes he has a good shot at sticking as a catcher. The contact told me, “He has improved on the basic fundamentals – receiving, blocking, footwork… He takes to instruction well though and is a quick learner. Pitchers like throwing to him.” The same contact also said Swihart as a “plus arm” but tries to be too quick at times when throwing. He said the prospect’s pop times (throwing to second base) are typically in the 1.80 to 1.95 second range.

Despite producing slightly below average offensive numbers in A-ball in 2012 Swihart should move up to high-A ball and, with some adjustments, could taste double-A by the end of the year.

Additional Notes

Swihart presented as a solid, all-around catching prospect. And while he presented with no real weakness, nothing about his tools screamed former first round pick either. As an older 2011 draft pick, Swihart was age appropriate for the South Atlantic League leaving his offensive numbers a bit concerning. For a prospect considered to be an offense first catcher, he’ll certainly need to hit more to maintain his lofty prospect status. (Mike Newman)



#8 Jose Iglesias (SS)


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Age

PA

HR

SB

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA

wRC+

Fld

WAR



22

77

1

1

.118

.200

.191

.186

4

7.2

0.3


Opening Day Age: 23
2012 Level: AAA/MLB
Acquired: 2009 international FA
Projected 2013 Level: AAA/MLB

Iglesias has been touted as the Red Sox’s shortstop of the future since signing out of Cuba in 2009. Despite being young and undeveloped with the bat, his glove work pushed him through the system quickly and he reached triple-A – with a cup of coffee in the majors – in just his second pro season.

Iglesias will probably never be an impact hitter (my favorite comp for him is Cesar Izturis) but a talent evaluator I spoke with said he really improved his offensive approach in 2012 despite being challenged at such a high level of pro ball. The contact said the young shortstop is currently learning to handle a variety of pitches, rather than focusing solely on fastballs. The club would like to see Iglesias stick to a game plan at the plate and get on base at a higher clip. He has good speed and could swipe double digit bag totals at the big league level.

Although there are concerns about his offense, there are few – if any – questions about his ability to field his position. The middle infielder has outstanding hands, foot work, range and a strong arm. Iglesias’ defensive wizardry will likely make him a big league regular even if his offense stagnates at its current level. As the talent evaluator put it, “His defense is at an elite level… It’s something every club would want.” The Cuban should open 2013 as the club’s starter at shortstop.



#9 Deven Marrero (SS/DH)


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Age

PA

H

2B

HR

BB

SO

SB

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA



21

284

66

14

2

34

48

24

.268

.358

.374

.351


Opening Day Age: 22
2012 Level: A-
Acquired: 2012 draft (24th overall)
Projected 2013 Level: A+

Marrero entered his junior year of college the same way he entered his senior year of high school – as a potential first round pick. However, for the second time in his amateur career, various unanswered questions caused him to slide a little bit in the draft – but not to the extent that his signability murkiness caused him to slip in 2009 (to the 17th round). The Red Sox were able to get the sure-handed shortstop with the 24th overall selection.

Some teams were concerned with Marrero’s offensive struggles in 2011-12, while others questioned his drive. Boston was just thrilled to get a player that the organization had coveted since his prep days, according to a contact I spoke with. “I don’t really think he struggled with the bat as much as I do that he struggled to live up to the expectations of being the first college position player taken,” the contact said. “Look at the difference in performance – in 2012, he struck out less and hit for more power. He put some unneeded pressure on himself and it caused him to have an erratic junior year.”

Those who love Marrero as a top prospect point to strong athleticism and steady defense. He possesses a strong arm and good range. At the plate, Marrero is streaky and inconsistent but he shows gap power and the ability to produce a solid batting average. He appeared more motivated in pro ball and flashed some potential on the base paths with 24 steals (six caught stealing) in 64 games; he’s not a burner but he has above-average speed. Marrero also did a nice job of working the count and taking some free passes while limiting his strikeouts. He could end up being a solid No. 2 hitter in the lineup.

The talent evaluator I spoke with agreed that Marrero still had polishing to do on his game: “He needs to continue to work on all aspects of the game – he has unbelievable instincts but will try and do too much on both sides of the ball.” The young shortstop will likely open 2013 in high-A ball and a strong first half could push him to double-A. He’s currently stuck behind fellow shortstop prospect Jose Iglesias but, if he develops as the Red Sox hope and Xander Bogaerts is shifted to another position, Marrero’s well-rounded game could make him the shortstop of the future in Boston.

Additional Notes

I’m not sure how Marrero’s agent netted him a two million dollar signing bonus, but I want that guy negotiating my next salary! The Arizona State product is a solid all-around shortstop, but profiles as more of a solid regular than player who excels in any area. Of course that has considerable value in today’s game, but his bonus seems a bit steep considering the Mets first round pick, also a shortstop, received about $800,000 less. (Mike Newman)



#10 Brandon Workman (P)


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Age

G

GS

IP

H

HR

K/9

BB/9

ERA

FIP



23

25

25

138.2

127

12

8.44

1.62

3.50

3.01


Opening Day Age: 24
2012 Level: A+/AA
Acquired: 2010 draft (2nd round)
Projected 2013 Level: AA/AAA

Workman is another Red Sox college draft pick who has been a top prospect since his high schools days, having spurned the Philadelphia Phillies back in 2007 (as a third round selection) to play ball at the University of Texas. Finally signed in the second round of the 2010 amateur draft, the right-hander reached double-A in just his second full season in pro ball. He’s produced very consistent numbers as a professional.

A scout familiar with Workman during both his high school and college days said that the pitcher has come a long way in his development. “As a high schooler, Brandon had a plus fastball and curveball but lacked a real off-speed pitch and his command was not very sharp. He developed his cutter at the University of Texas with the help of pitching coach Skip Johnson and it became a real weapon for him as he continued to improve his ability to locate. By the time (he was drafted) he had plus control.”

When I watched Workman pitch, he showed a good pitcher’s frame with a three-quarter arm slot. He threw a heavy fastball but was not doing a good job of mixing in his secondary pitches. However, the scout I spoke with believes that both Workman’s fastball and curveball are plus pitches. “I think he’ll be a starter based on his mix, great strength, durability and his control. Now he’s developed the changeup and he has a starter’s mix to go along with it. There is effort in delivery and arm action but he has no problems repeating (it). He’s so big and strong that he can handle it.”

For me, Workman appears to be a future No. 3 or 4 starter who should be capable of providing lots of innings at the big league. He will likely open 2013 back at double-A but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him up with the big league club at some point if the pitching staff struggles with injuries.

Additional Notes

After posting solid peripherals between High-A and Double-A in 2012, I can’t help but think Workman’s rank is more due to statistical success than pure stuff. The best Brandon Workman I’ve seen has a heavy, 92-94 MPH sinking fastball and curveball he can throw for strikes. At his worst, Workman strikes me as a seventh inning bullpen arm. (Mike Newman)



#11 Drake Britton (P)


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Age

G

GS

IP

H

HR

K/9

BB/9

ERA

FIP



23

26

24

129.2

128

8

8.19

3.96

4.44

3.62


Opening Day Age: 23
2012 Level: A+/AA
Acquired: 2007 draft (23rd round)
Projected 2013 Level: AA/AAA

Britton has had an up-and-down career since signing out of a Texas high school back in 2007, which also included Tommy John surgery in 2008. He entered the 2011 season as one of Boston’s most promising pitching prospects but had a complete meltdown in high-A ball. He rebounded in 2012 – despite a slow start – and made 16 encouraging starts in double-A.

A scout I spoke with said the Tommy John surgery that Britton had definitely slowed his progress. “I believe that the further away he gets from the surgery, the better he becomes… Consistency with his stuff in the zone is the main thing he has to improve to become a successful major leaguer. The stuff is there and it’s all plus… This type of left-handed arm just doesn’t fall off many trees.” Britton’s repertoire includes a low-to-mid-90s fastball, curveball and changeup. I watched the southpaw pitch and he had a thicker lower half that hinted at strong legs – a necessity for any pitcher – but he didn’t have the smoothest delivery. He also struggled to keep his shoulder closed from the stretch.

Because of his past struggles, the organization may choose to be cautious with Britton and send him back to double-A to begin 2013 but a strong spring training could vault him to triple-A. He has the ceiling of a No. 3 or 4 starter but could also end up in the bullpen if consistency continues to elude him.



#12 Bryce Brentz (OF)


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Age

PA

H

2B

HR

BB

SO

SB

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA



23

589

156

31

19

46

153

9

.292

.351

.464

.365


Opening Day Age: 24
2012 Level: AA/AAA
Acquired: 2010 draft (36th overall)
Projected 2013 Level: AAA

He hasn’t shown it in his professional numbers to date – in terms of massive home run numbers – but Brentz possesses impressive raw power and could be Boston’s right-fielder of the (near) future. A scout I spoke with said, “Bryce has an extremely fast barrel and is capable of getting to his power anywhere in the zone.” Like most power hitters, though, the former supplemental first round pick strikes out a lot but his aggressive nature also leads to modest walk rates. The scout I spoke with said Brentz was always a competitive player. “This is an area where his competitiveness maybe working against him. He – like a lot of young players – has to learn to control his effort level and that it is OK to take a walk sometimes.”

Brentz is a decent hitter who is not a dead pull hitter but he still struggles with breaking balls. His batting averages in the minors have been buoyed by high – and likely unsustainable – BABIP rates; when he reaches the majors expect his average to be more in the .250-.270 range.

He’s not a great runner and his speed is slightly below average so his range in the outfield will be a tick below average. His plus arm strength makes up for any inadequacies in the field. As one scout put it, “He was able to throw 94 off the mound (as an amateur). Whenever he threw from the outfield it was a very playable arm, capable of fitting a right-field profile. (The) strongest amateur arm I ever saw was Jeff Franceour but Bryce was second.”

A former two-way player in college, Brentz was a little behind the eight ball when he entered pro ball but has now had to opportunity to focus on full-time hitting for the past three seasons. He’ll likely open 2013 at triple-A Pawtucket but could reach the majors at some point during the second half of the season.

Additional Notes

When Bryce Brentz posts a BABIP of .370+, prospect followers get excited and forget he strikes out more than 25% of the time. Having seen Brentz in 2011, I saw him as more of a second division starter who may struggle to break through in Boston where success is expected immediately. I’m a bit more confident in his abilities now that his numbers have maintained at the upper levels. (Mike Newman)



#13 Brandon Jacobs (OF)


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Age

PA

H

2B

HR

BB

SO

SB

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA



21

487

110

30

13

39

128

17

.252

.322

.410

.330


Opening Day Age: 22
2012 Level: A+
Acquired: 2009 draft (10th round)
Projected 2013 Level: AA

Jacobs appeared at No. 10 on my Red Sox Top 15 prospect list last year but a disappointing season in high-A ball dragged him down to the No. 13 slot this year. Despite his obvious struggles and step backward in 2012 he still managed to provide league-average offense. A contact I spoke with felt the prospect’s season was not that bad. “He was coming off a good year (in 2011)… He was in a less friendly hitting environment… and he maybe tried to do too much,” he said. “It was a learning experience for him… Has some work to do on his mechanics.”

I watched Jacobs play earlier this year and noted that he holds his hands very high and has a noisy load. He looked like he was swinging around the ball instead of keeping his hands inside the ball with a short swing path. When he’s going well, the former prep star shows impressive raw power and base running aptitude. His strikeout rates will probably always keep him from hitting for a high average but he could be a 20-15 (home runs-steals) player at the big league level, although he’s not a pure base stealer by any means. Jacobs has played both left and center field in pro ball but the talent evaluator I spoke with felt his best position would probably be left field because of his modest arm strength and solid range.

He should move up to double-A in 2013 at the age of 22. If he can continue to tighten up his pitch recognition and approach at the plate, Jacobs could be a solid big league contributor as early as mid-2014.

Additional Notes

Entering 2012, Jacobs was ranked in every major top-100 and deservedly so. With reports of a hamate injury slowing him down for much of the season, he might deserve a mulligan. However, prospect lists simply don’t work that way, so Jacobs takes a big hit. A rebound in 2013 has him back in the top five. Being that Jacobs made such huge strides in 2011, I wouldn’t bet against him. (Mike Newman)



#14 Anthony Ranaudo (P)


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Age

G

GS

IP

H

HR

K/9

BB/9

ERA

FIP



22

9

9

37.2

41

4

6.45

6.45

6.69

5.54


Opening Day Age: 23
2012 Level: AA
Acquired: 2010 draft (39th overall)
Projected 2013 Level: AA/AAA

Not only is Ranaudo one of the most enigmatic prospects in the Red Sox system, he might be one of the biggest head-scratchers in professional baseball. He looked like a sure-fire first round draft pick after his sophomore season of college before suffering a stress fracture in his elbow. Boston still took him with the 39th selection of the 2010 draft and handed him more than $2.5 million based on past performances and scouting reports.

A contact I spoke with said,”We had a good process on Anthony’s medical history and we knew there was risk involved in regards to his elbow, but were confident with a conservative approach to his developmental path he would get healthy and on track… The elbow has been sound but the pulled groin coming out of spring training really set him back.” Ranaudo made only six starts in 2012, all at the double-A level. The good news, though, is that he’s pitching in the Puerto Rico winter league and reportedly flashed very good stuff in his debut.

Ranaudo is a monster of a man, standing 6’7” and weighing about 230 lbs so he should be able to provide a good number of innings if his elbow and shoulder hold up. If not, though, perhaps a future as a high leverage reliever. Both his fastball and curveball have the chance to be plus pitches while a scout I spoke with suggested a future grade of 55 (slightly above average) on his changeup.

People familiar with Ranaudo believe he’ll overcome all the adversity he’s faced to this point in his pitching career. The contact I spoke with said, “If you talk with anyone with the Red Sox Anthony is one of those unique young men who has plus-plus make-up. He has faced a lot of adversity thus far but it hasn’t changed his approach or commitment level. Hopefully he will have a great off season and be heathy coming into 2013.” If he can stay on the mound and continue to show the stuff he’s flashed this winter, Ranaudo could reach triple-A in 2013 and possibly the majors in 2014.

Additional Notes

In 2011, contacts kept telling me the same thing in regards to Ranaudo. He profiles as a durable, mid-rotation starter, but why the two-plus million dollar signing bonus? After a 2012 which saw Ranaudo post a 6.45 BB/9 in Double-A, those contacts were proven correct for the moment. (Mike Newman)



#15 Mookie Betts (2B)


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Age

PA

H

2B

HR

BB

SO

SB

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA



19

292

67

8

0

32

30

20

.267

.352

.307

.322


Opening Day Age: 20
2012 Level: A-
Acquired: 2011 draft (5th round)
Projected 2013 Level: A

The 15th slot on the list came down to a few names and I eventually settled on Betts, who narrowly edged out 2012 draftee and right-handed prep hurler Ty Buttrey. The diminutive second baseman spend 2012 playing at the age of 19 against much older competition in the New York Penn League. He understands his game, and his limitations, and focuses on controlling the strike zone, getting on base and using his legs. He’s working to become a steady defender at second base.

In 2012, Betts walked more than he struck out – and impressive feat for his age and experience level – and also stole 20 bases in 24 attempts. A talent evaluator I spoke with assessed the prospect: “He has a very advanced feel for the zone and always seems to be in control of his at-bats. He has good speed, instincts, and athleticism.” At 5’9” with a slender frame, he needs to get stronger so he’s not over-matched at higher levels. His month-by-month splits suggest that he wore down as the season progressed despite playing in short-season ball.

The contact I spoke with about Betts agreed that the prospect has work to do. “As with all high school players, he needs to get stronger and continue to get at-bats… He just needs to keep playing baseball and developing in the field and at the plate.” The Tennessee native should move up to full season A-ball in 2013 for the first time in his career and should move fairly methodically through the system.

His overally package of tools is probably not a threat to incumbent second baseman Dustin Pedroia and the infield glut of prospects – which is a great ‘problem’ for Boston to have – could push the youngster to a utlity role if he can diversify his defensive abilities and isn’t used as future trade bait.

Additional Notes

Betts is an athletic second baseman with gap power and strong contact skills. Unfortunately, his arm will keep him out of the shortstop picture which hurts his value. I like Betts as a sleeper, but would probably have Vinicio ranked here instead. He’s younger, just as athletic and profiles as a true shortstop. (Mike Newman)

AL Cy Young Race: Price Good, Verlander Better.

This afternoon, Matt Klaassen detailed the NL Cy Young decision, which basically comes down to Clayton Kershaw and R.A. Dickey. Both had excellent seasons, and it’s essentially hair-splitting to pick one or the other, though as Matt notes, most of the hairs tend to fall Kershaw’s way when you actually do split them. Over in the AL, the story is similar, though in this case, the lines are a bit more pronounced.

Quite simply, there’s just not much of a case for anyone besides Justin Verlander. This isn’t to take anything away from David Price, who had an excellent season, but unless you’re still evaluating a pitcher by wins and losses, there’s really nothing you can point to that puts Price ahead of Verlander.

Verlander threw 238 innings. Price threw 211.
Verlander posted an ERA- of 64. Price posted an ERA- of 66.
Verlander posted a FIP- of 70. Price posted a FIP- of 77.

Whether you evaluate a pitcher by the things he’s mostly in control of (walks, strikeouts, and home runs) or by everything that occurs when he’s on the mound (runs allowed), Verlander was slightly better. He was better in front of a worse defense, with an inferior bullpen, in a park that is more conducive to offense than the one in Tampa Bay. Even if they threw the exact same amount of innings, you’d probably lean slightly towards Verlander, but of course, Verlander threw an additional 27 innings, or essentially three complete games worth of extra pitching. Price would have to have been significantly better in terms of quality to make up for that kind of quantity, but there’s no real evidence that he was any better on a rate basis than Verlander.

The one factor that gets pushed as a plus for Price is quality opposition. After all, Price pitched in the AL East, while Verlander got to run through a series of lousy AL Central opponents thanks to the unbalanced schedule. However, once you get past the labels and the reputations, even that argument falls apart.

Here are the AL ranks in wRC+ for each non-Detroit and non-Tampa Bay team in the AL Central and AL East, pitcher hitting excluded.

AL Central

Chicago: 98 wRC+ (7th)
Indians: 97 wRC+ (t-8th)
Twins: 97 wRC+ (t-8th)
Royals: 95 wRC+ (t-11th)

AL East

New York: 114 wRC+ (1st)
Orioles: 96 wRC+ (10th)
Red Sox: 95 wRC+ (t-11th)
Blue Jays: 94 wRC+ (12th)

The Yankees can hit, but the rest of the AL East was no better offensively than the AL Central this year. Price didn’t face legions of match-ups against tough divisional opponents – he faced one tough match-up in the five instances he was lined up against the Yankees.

Overall, the average OPS of opponents who hit against Price this year was .763. Against Verlander, it was .758. It’s not inconsequential, but it’s a narrow gap that doesn’t move the needle much at all. If we were talking about Jarrod Parker, who continually matched up against Texas and Anaheim and faced batters with an average .771 OPS, this would be a bigger factor, but this wasn’t a normal offensive year for the AL East, and we can’t give Price too big of a boost because of the division he plays in.

Verlander didn’t blow Price out of the water, but he was a little better across the board, and in the final tally, it’s hard to make much of a pro-Price argument. Verlander remains the best pitcher in baseball, and he had the best season of any pitcher in baseball. Tip of the cap to David Price for an excellent season, but he just got bested by a slightly better pitcher.

We’ll see in about two hours whether or not voters saw it the same way, but Verlander should walk away with his second straight Cy Young Award tonight. He earned it.
 
No MVP for Trout. I had a feeling a triple crown would trump WAR and all the other things that favored Trout.

Posey baby!!! :pimp:
 
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22 to 6 in 1st place votes though?  Come on.

Sheldon Ocker of the Akron Beacon Journal gave a 3rd place vote to Trout and a 2nd place vote to Beltre... Clown.
 
1000


700


First player in MLB history to win the MVP and make the final out of the World Series in the same season.

:pimp: :pimp: :pimp: :pimp:
 
Mez 0ne said:
Miguel Cabrera and Buster Posey win MVP awards.
They got it right :pimp:
Click to expand...

There's not a big enough laughing/smh emoticon for "they got it right" in regards to Cabrera. Trout got robbed. This is worse than Juan Gonzalez winning MVP awards. Good year, sure. MVP? No way.
 
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Listening to the moronic radio guys this morning was causing me to swerve all over the highway.

Miggy's team went to the playoffs!!!!

Angels had a better record.


Miggy actually played the first month of the season!!!!

That makes what Trout did even more unbelievable.


First one to do it in 40+ years!!!!!

No one ever did what Trout just did, ever.



Like are they reading cue cards, or just forgetting to look at other things? Saying Detroit made the playoffs, when they would have placed 4th in the Angels division is sort of maybe kind of absurd, isn't it? :lol:
 
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