Arizona Diamondbacks
I thought the Snakes got one of the best values in the first round when Nevada right-hander Braden Shipley (15) fell to them after getting some top-10 buzz this spring; he's a converted position player who's only been on the mound for two years, touching 97 with a plus changeup and some feel for a curveball, along with a delivery that works. Aaron Blair (36) has a starter's size and sometimes shows a starter's repertoire, but was very inconsistent week to week this spring and tested positive for a banned stimulant in May. Justin Williams (52) has big raw power but is a well below-average hitter with no position. Georgia Tech first baseman Daniel Palka (8
has big raw power but projects to strike out at a huge rate in pro ball.
Matt McPhearson (120) was one of the top position players on the showcase circuit last summer, showing a quick bat and plus speed, but his crude approach at the plate probably pushed him out of the top 100, where I think he represents great value. Jamie Westbrook (150) played high school ball around the corner from my house, and his makeup is great, but he's a 5-foot-8 infielder who has to move to second and whose uppercut swing won't translate with wood. Colin Bray (180) is a superb multi-sport athlete who is extremely raw at the plate, cut from the Keon Broxton cloth, but he's a reasonable pick in this range.
Daniel Gibson (210) is a left-handed reliever and former starter from the University of Florida, but he never showed me a quality breaking ball in the two times I saw him. He and Oregon's Jimmy Sherfy (300) should be fast-to-the-majors relievers, with Gibson more polished while Sherfy has better stuff with a much worse delivery. Elvin Soto (480) is interesting if he signs, a draft-eligible sophomore catcher from Pittsburgh who's improved defensively to the point where he might be a quality backup. It's an up-and-down crop but overall among my favorites.
Atlanta Braves
This is among my least-favorite draft classes, very low on upside with some very dubious picks. Jason Hursh (31) has a huge fastball, but there's a better than even chance he ends up a power reliever, between the lack of a solid second pitch and the Tommy John surgery that knocked him out for 2012. Victor Caratini (65) is a strong switch-hitter with a sound swing, showing the body for power but not the loft, and a chance to stay at third base with some instruction. Carlos Salazar (102) was probably their best value for the pick, a very hard-throwing right-hander with a sharp curveball but who's only 6-foot and not projectable.
Steve Janas (191) also missed most of 2012 after Tommy John surgery -- perhaps Atlanta feels that's the new inefficiency -- and throws a lot of strikes but has no average pitch. Tanner Murphy (133) and Ian Hagenmiller (313) are their best upside plays other than Caratini -- raw but strong prep position players, with Murphy showing good arm strength behind the plate.
And then there's Kyle Wren (253), the one of the most embarrassing picks any team made. Wren isn't a bad player and probably would have gone at some point in the next two rounds, but the problem with Atlanta choosing him is that his father is the team's general manager, which means dad just handed his son more than $150,000 (assuming he signs for slot). You just don't take an executive's kid in the 8th round -- if he's that good, someone else will take him, but even the threat of the appearance of nepotism should steer you away.
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs' first pick, Kris Bryant (2), was a first-round talent out of high school who ended up at the University of San Diego and just ended up leading Division 1 in homers this year with 31. His kind of right-handed power is hard to come by, and even if he ends up in right field down the road he'll be a middle-of-the-order bat with power and patience. Rob Zastryzny (41) is a four-pitch starter without an out pitch, showing good command and control but lacking life on the fastball. Jacob Hannemann (75) is a 22-year-old freshman from BYU who spent two years serving on a religious mission, with good tools including the speed to possibly stay in center, but he's already at an age when he should be in Double-A.
The Cubs took five hard throwers who probably profile in relief in the long run in Tyler Skulina (10
, Trey Masek (13
, Scott Frazier (16
, David Garner (19
, and Sam Wilson (22
; Skulina and Frazier are the most intriguing because they at least have a chance to remain starters due to their size and potential for above-average breaking balls. Their one wild card pick is Trevor Clifton (34
, a prep righty from Tennessee who reaches 97 mph regularly with a very violent delivery and a strong commitment to Kentucky.
Cincinnati Reds
I've generally liked the Reds' drafts the past few years, but they were more conservative in 2013 and their class doesn't offer the same potentially high return in my view. Phil Ervin (27) is a short, thickly built outfielder, in center now but destined for a corner, bearing an uphill swing and a lower half that will require a lot of maintenance to keep it in shape. I don't see him as an above-average regular and think it's most likely he's a fourth outfielder.
Michael Lorenzen (3
is a tremendous defensive centerfielder who can't hit and a reliever who can hit 99 mph with little effort but has pitched so little (by choice) that he hasn't developed a second pitch. You can teach him a slider more easily than you can teach him to hit, so I believe his future is in the bullpen. Kevin Franklin (67) has plus raw power but is a well below-average hitter with a huge, long swing, and I cannot imagine him staying at third base, with a body type (6-foot-1, 220 pounds already) that you only see at first.
Ben Lively (135) has had good results at Central Florida thanks to the deception in his delivery, but he doesn't have an above-average pitch. Right-hander Mark Armstrong (104) and shortstop/pitcher Cory Thompson (165) are more in line with how the Reds typically draft, raw kids with one or more carrying tools, although Thompson is nearly 19 already and still isn't advanced as a hitter yet. The Reds did make the most interesting pick of the first 10 rounds with former New York Giants draft pick Chad Jones (285), a former outfielder and left-handed reliever for LSU who was 86-89 with a slider that projected as average or better and who showed a ton of energy on the mound (as well as raw power in BP). Jones suffered a catastrophic leg and ankle injury in a 2010 car accident that ended his football career before it began; this would be an amazing second act for him.
Colorado Rockies
The Rockies ended up with Oklahoma right-hander Jonathan Gray (3) with their first pick, a heck of a consolation prize given Gray's 94-100 MPH fastball and often plus slider. His fastball command has to improve in pro ball and he'll need to develop his changeup, but it's rare that you get to draft a guy who projects as a No. 1 starter, and Gray immediately becomes the team's best prospect.
Ryan McMahon (42) is a very athletic infielder, probably moving to third base in the long run, with bat speed and some power projection. He may be a little raw for the high second round but understandable given his upside. Alex Balog (70) had an up-and-down spring, at times showing a plus fastball and slider, at other times showing four average pitches, but also raising concerns with the way he competed. He has the size and has at least demonstrated the velocity to be a mid-rotation guy and was good value for the pick.
Sam “Gangster” Moll (77) will remind you of Tim Collins, another left-hander with a low-90s fastball and a swing-and-miss breaking ball, but only projects as a short (no pun intended) reliever. Catcher Dom Nunez (169) is a converted infielder with a solid backstop's build and a ceiling as a regular, but who more likely projects as a quality backup because of his bat -- although a good backup catcher is also good value in the sixth round. Konner Wade (199) was a huge part of Arizona's CWS championship in 2012, but his command comes and goes and his low arm slot makes me think he'll end up in a bullpen. Terry McClure (229) was a great upside play if he'll sign -- he has power and bat speed, but needs help keeping his swing path consistent and coordinating his lower and upper halves. He's committed to Georgia Tech. I know nothing about Alex Rodriguez (469) but he might consider going by “Alejandro” or “Sasha” instead.
Los Angeles Dodgers
This doesn't feel like a Dodgers draft, with no high-upside high school picks mixed in here at all. Chris Anderson (1
does fit what the Dodgers like in pitchers, as he has size, velocity and has shown a plus slider, hitting a rough stretch in April after the Dolphins overused him in the season's first six weeks. Minnesota lefty Tom Windle (56) profiles as either a back-end starter or good reliever, a command/finesse pitcher with average stuff but very good feel. Brandon Dixon (92) is currently a third baseman but has to move either to an outfield corner or to first base, and he doesn't have the power (slugging just .362 away from Tucson) or patience (15 unintentional walks in 247 PA) to profile in those spots.
Cody Bellinger (124), son of former True Yankee Clay Bellinger, is a first-base-only high school hitter with a loose swing and some power potential if you really dream on him, but he didn't look physically ready for pro ball and was seen by many area scouts as a college guy this year. Right-hander JD Underwood (154) has a fringy fastball with good feel and could end up a three-pitch guy with nothing plus. Right-hander Jacob Rhame (184) has good sink on his low-90s fastball with above-average control, but right now his curve and changeup are both below average. Adam Law (364) is not related to me.
Miami Marlins
For the first time since 1996, the Marlins took a college position player with their first overall pick, grabbing UNC third baseman Colin Moran (6). He could move very quickly once UNC's postseason run concludes; I might send him out to Double-A and then consider sending him to instructs and the Fall League specifically to improve his footwork at third base. He can hit, although he has a slightly grooved swing and the power may not fully translate. Lefty Matt Krook (35) has clear first-round stuff, but inconsistent command and some concerns (not shared by everyone) about his mechanics may have caused him to slide to the competitive balance round; at 35 he represented great value and is more in line with how the Marlins usually draft, going for a pitcher who has size and velocity with a present breaking ball.
Trevor Williams (44) had a very disappointing spring, going from a possible mid-first-round selection to the early second round, as his slider was never good enough for him to miss right-handed bats, giving him a reverse split this year. Colby Suggs (73) recovered enough from an early-season groin strain to throw well in limited usage after April 1, throwing 11.1 innings and walking just four while striking out 17; he has two plus pitches and should move quickly as a pure reliever. Ben Deluzio (80) is committed to Florida State to play baseball and football; he's going to outgrow shortstop and move to the outfield, but I like his swing quite a bit, especially if the Marlins can get him to load a little less deep. KJ Woods (112) has is already 6-foot-3 and 230 pounds, even though he won't turn 18 for a few more weeks; he has plus raw power but a long swing and will have to move to first base.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers lost their first-round pick when owner Mark Attanasio decided to sign free agent Kyle Lohse, a decision that looks even worse now in hindsight. The board was kind to the Brewers, however, as they grabbed a legitimate first round talent in athletic prep right-hander Devin Williams (54), who reminds me a little of Taijuan Walker in ease of velocity, athleticism, and smooth arm action. Tucker Neuhaus (72) might have been a second-rounder on talent, but missed nearly all of the spring due to injuries; he's a shortstop who'll have to move to third base, and has a good swing but isn't advanced as a hitter.
Barrett Astin (90) was a starter for the Razorbacks this spring, but as a one-pitch guy he projects as a reliever. Taylor Williams (122) is a 5-foot-11 right-hander from Kent State who might end up in the pen due to his delivery if not for his lack of height. Tyler Linehan (272) might be a back-end starter if he drops some weight -- he's listed at 6-foot, 240 pounds, but he at least has an average fastball/curve combo. Andy Hillis (332) has one of the draft's biggest fastballs, reaching 99 this spring for NAIA school Lee University; however, he lacks an average breaking ball now, although the velocity alone will get him a long career in the minors. David Denson (452) could make some waves with his raw power in the low minors, though he's probably a future DH and his hit tool is way behind the power.
New York Mets
I thought the Mets did very well with their first four picks, taking on a lot of risk but all of it coming with upside. Dominic Smith (11) is a big bet on one of the draft's best swings, as he has a plus arm but has struggled on defense at every position but first base; I do like his chances to hit, as he has a quiet approach and is a real “low-heartbeat” hitter, although the Mets will have to get him to stay back consistently instead of lunging out of his swing.
Andrew Church (4
is a high-upside prep arm, very unpolished, with arm strength right now, very signable in this area of the draft; Ivan Wilson (76) is also very crude but has big upside, the kind of high-reward pick the Mets should be making more frequently.
Casey Meisner (84) is 6-foot-7 and very projectable, showing plus velocity already but too much effort in his delivery, with good shape on his curveball. L.J. Mazzilli (116), son of Lee Mazzilli, is just a senior sign for me, not as likely to become a big leaguer as their next pick, Kansas State left fielder Jared King (146). Matt Oberste (206) is in between the two, a first baseman with some power but just fair bat speed. Ricky Knapp (236) has three pitches, nothing plus, but he does fill up the strike zone and get some sink on his fastball to generate groundballs, so he might surface as a fifth starter.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies had my favorite top five picks of any draft class in the NL, taking four prep bats who fit their usual philosophy of betting on athleticism but all of whom also have some present skills, as opposed to the Anthony Hewitts of yesteryear. J.P. Crawford (16) was the draft's best shortstop, a long-term project at the plate but with the hand speed and general approach to make you think he can develop into a solid-average hitter in five years, with above-average defense at short. Andrew Knapp (53) was the only college catcher in the class with a good chance to develop into an everyday player.
Cord Sandberg (89), who has already signed a slightly above-slot deal that came together awfully fast, won't be playing quarterback for Mississippi State after all; he's a great athlete with size and quickness as well as the potential for 20-plus homers from right field. Jan Hernandez (96) has good bat speed and the rotation for power if he can keep his back side firm; he's a shortstop now but probably ends up at third base where his hands and arm will help him become an above-average defender.
Catcher Jake Sweaney (121) was one of my favorite sleepers for the third round, but the Phillies got him in the fourth. He needs some swing help, but the upside is an everyday catcher whose bat makes up for minor defensive deficiencies. After that, they took some recognizable names but no one significant. Trey Williams (211) has seen his stock plummet since his junior year and is a million miles away from being a prospect. Joey Martarano (391) is committed to Boise State to play football (they don't even have baseball) but has zero feel to hit right now. Cavan Biggio (871) will join his brother at Notre Dame this fall. And Oregon State right-hander Dan Child (541) lost his rotation spot but is still 6-5 with a 60 fastball, so if he signs there's still some potential here.
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates weren't going to get anything as good as David Dahl, the player they passed up to take Mark Appel last year, but they did do very well considering where they picked, landing the top prep talent in the draft in outfielder Austin Meadows (9) as well as highly regarded catcher Reese McGuire (14), the latter the best-throwing catcher in the class.
Lefty Blake Taylor (51) is a two-pitch guy who's reached 94-95, has a projectable frame and can spin a curveball that's already close to average. JaCoby Jones (87) made my top 100 out of high school, and I thought he would blossom at LSU into a first-rounder, but he regressed badly and needs a fresh start with someone who can overhaul his swing and quiet his lower half; the athleticism is still there and he's turned into a strong defensive second baseman.
Cody Dickson (119) has an average fastball with some projection left but was wild all spring until his final few starts, and probably profiles in relief unless his control improves significantly. Shortstop Trae Arbet (149) will end up at second base and may be more of a utilityman because he doesn't have much power and is a fringy runner. Mississippi State shortstop Adam Frazier (179) also looks like a utility guy, a slap hitter with 30 power who makes a lot of contact and could handle short or second. At 5-foot-11, you can assume he's scrappy. If they hit on just the first two picks, this will be remembered as a good draft, but I think Taylor is a potential mid-rotation guy and I refuse to give up entirely on Jones.
San Diego Padres
The Padres had a strong draft, leading off with one of the top athletes in the college crop in right fielder Hunter Renfroe (13), a power hitter with speed and a plus arm but still some rawness in his hitting approach. Dustin Peterson (50), younger brother of first-rounder D.J. Peterson, is a solid prospect in his own right, more athletic, with a chance to profile at second or third and a potentially above-average hit tool. Jordan Paroubeck (69) is another great athlete with a lot of upside. He's very raw right now but, if everything clicks, he's a potential star in center field with speed and power.
Mason Smith (11
is a future right fielder with a chance to hit for average and 20-homer power depending on how his plate discipline develops. The Padres also took a slew of tough-sign guys, maybe even unsignable guys, including Connor Jones (62
, Tony Rizzotti (74
, Chris Okey (92
, and Garrett Williams (98
, with Jones and Williams both indicating prior to the draft that they had no intention of signing.
San Francisco Giants
This was my least favorite draft class this year, as they took only one player I rated in the top 100 in this draft class: first-rounder Christian Arroyo (25), whom I ranked 99th overall as a potential average regular at second base. He has more upside than their 2011 first-rounder Joe Panik did, due to his youth and better swing. Ryder Jones (64) has a commitment to Stanford, which never loses recruits, and also has limited skills. He can't run and probably has to play first base or move to the mound, only bringing size and potential power to the table.
Chase Johnson (101) threw just 21 innings this year, with an average to tick above-average fastball and a future in middle relief. Stanford's Brian Ragira (132) was a prospect out of high school because he was at least athletic enough to handle left field and had a good swing, but Stanford messed up the latter (it is their specialty) and Ragira messed up the former, as he's now a 30 runner with a bad body who can't even play first base. Notre Dame reliever Dan Slania (162) looks like Jeff Juden with a big fastball that doesn't miss enough bats and a recent history of overuse at the hands of one of Division I's biggest arm-shredders, Mik Aoki. Minnesota lefty DJ Snelten (282) might be good value for the pick if his elbow returns to 100 percent, and LSU catcher Ty Ross (372) might be a backup at some point.
St. Louis Cardinals
This was an oddly conservative draft class, likely to produce a few big leaguers but no one who's more than an average player. Marco Gonzales (19) is a lefty with a plus-plus changeup, above-average curveball, great command, an easy delivery, and a fastball that may end up in the upper 80s; the hope is that the command and athleticism are so good that he becomes Mark Buehrle. Fellow southpaw Rob Kaminsky (2
has a strong fastball/curveball combo, just lacking size at 5-foot-11, 191 pounds, to provide some projection that would make him more of a future No. 2 than No. 4.
Shortstop Oscar Mercado (57) has good hands but struggles to make routine throws way too often, in part because of how his feet work, and right now he cannot hit at all. Ole Miss right-hander Mike Mayers (93) will probably settle in with three average pitches, perhaps a 55 changeup, but has a fifth starter ceiling unless something improves dramatically. Mason Katz (125) is just a senior sign for me, productive at LSU with a swing that won't work in pro ball. Ian McKinney (155) is an undersized prep lefty with a fringy fastball/breaking ball combination, probably headed for the bullpen. The one later pick of theirs I did like quite a bit was Chris Rivera (215), a polished prep infielder who needs work on his plate discipline and hitting approach.
Washington Nationals
The Nationals gave up their first-round pick for signing Rafael Soriano, so their first selection came late in the second round when they took Dallas Baptist righty Jake Johanssen (6
, a starter who sits in the upper 90s but will probably end up in late-game relief.
Drew Ward (105) is more famous than talented, a big, slow kid with raw power and a future at first base, already 18.5 on draft day even though he graduated from high school a year early. Junior College right-hander Nick Pivetta (136) earned mixed reviews from scouts this spring, but the best-case scenario is that his arm strength leads to a future as a power arm out of the pen.
Austin Voth (166) sits 89-92, touching 94, with a change and cutter, and probably ends up in the pen as well. You can add John Simms (346) to the list of arms Rice has ruined, something that Andrew Dunlap (1006) might want to consider before he matriculates there this fall. The Nats did pop Reno prep shortstop Garrett Hampson (796) on day three; he was 98th on my board and is the kind of far-away prospect the Nats used to take more frequently. If he signs he'd be one of the top 20 or so prospects in their system and would make the draft class look a bit better to me.
he's auto blown save at this point, and Donnie keeps throwin him out there and making excuses for him.
gotta love Vin 
