2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions
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Eight teams that need to draft well.
Draft Top 100.
Spoiler [+]
Some clubs always have to draft well to stay in contention, as they build their 25-man rosters with a strong mix of in-house talent. The Tampa Bay Rays are the perfect example of such an organization, and the Florida Marlins, Minnesota Twins, Kansas City Royals and Colorado Rockies also fall into that category.
There are some clubs, however, that may need to get production out of this year's draft class for various reasons, despite having money to spend on free agents to cover holes not filled with homegrown talent.
[h3]New York Mets[/h3]
It's critical to their future success for the Mets to start producing more talent from within and that starts with the draft. Their financial status may improve soon once the new investor becomes an official minority owner, but as pricey veterans are shipped out, the organization may not have the impact players to replace them going forward.
This is the consequence of lackluster draft results during the Rudy Terrasas era, which dropped the club to the No. 26 ranking in Keith Law's organizational farm system rankings over the winter. To avoid another free-agent spending spree, new scouting director Chad McDonald must add impact players to the system and with a deep draft class at hand, there are no excuses for failure. A solid draft will greatly help the Mets' chances to sustain contention.
[h3]New York Yankees[/h3]
Despite spending more money on the big league payroll than any other franchise in team sports history, the Yankees have found that when their money isn't enough to lure what they need, it'd be nice to have options filtering throughout the organization.
The Yankees surprisingly have as poor a track record in the first round as any team in the entire league, producing just two players -- Derek Jeter in 1992 and Phil Hughes in 2004 -- that have made an impact. Granted, many of those first-round picks have been in the 20s or later due to the Yankees successes in the '70s, '90s and the past decade, but the paucity of strong drafts may be catching up with the Yankees.
The '90s run started with homegrown talent and while the Latin scene is certainly a strong front -- Jesus Montero, Robinson Cano and Manny Banuelos, to name the top three -- getting major league players from the draft has to become more of a priority, especially as the Yankees begin to age. Plus, if they want to spend money, drafted prospects will gladly accept their checks, unlike Cliff Lee last winter.
[h3]Los Angeles Dodgers[/h3]
Not unlike the Mets -- and perhaps much, much worse -- the Dodgers could be in a tough financial state for a year or more, potentially limiting their ability to sign free agents and make trades that add payroll. If the ownership problems linger, the draft may be the best way the organization can add impact players, and when the Dodgers were at their best, they built their winning teams with a good percentage of their own cultivations.
Logan White and Ned Colletti are in a tough situation, however, as they may not be allowed by MLB to go over slot, which abbreviates the damage they can do in this year's draft.
[h3]Toronto Blue Jays[/h3]
The Jays find themselves in a similar category as the Rays, Royals, Twins and Rockies -- having to draft well because they can't keep up with their rivals on the free-agent front.
But the Jays are a mid-market club in terms of payroll and if they want to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox in the AL East, they have to beat them in the draft. This year the Jays have extra picks, and will need to use them wisely if they want to gain ground in the standings in the next few years.
[h3]Chicago Cubs[/h3]
The Cubs went for signability last June and haven't fared well early in drafts under Tim Wilken, at least not yet. Brett Jackson has a chance to make an impact, as does Andrew Cashner, but the club's current 40-man roster consists of just seven players drafted by the club, and only one, catcher Geovany Soto, has made an All-Star team.
With strong organizations at the top of their division in the St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds, the Cubs have to find a way to add high-quality players to their organization without trading away young talent in order to get it, as they did last winter in acquiring Matt Garza. They've done well on the international market -- Carlos Marmol, Carlos Zambrano, Starlin Castro -- but the draft has been a fairly empty cupboard and has left their farm system in the bottom half of the league.
[h3]Houston Astros[/h3]
The Astros have had a little luck on the international market to help build their farm system, but if they aren't going to add more young talent when they trade proven veterans (than what they did when they sent Roy Oswalt to Philadelphia), they may find themselves looking up at Pittsburgh in the NL Central for the foreseeable future.
Scouting director Bobby Heck has found some good value in the draft of late, including right-hander Jordan Lyles and three solid picks from a year ago, but the Astros appear to be several players from competing and have to continue to stockpile the farm system in hopes that a few of their choices develop into superstar players. With the recent departure of Lance Berkman and Oswalt, Houston doesn't have one on its roster.
The new ownership could change the way the organization approaches free agency, but it's difficult to imagine the draft becoming less critical for the Astros right now.
[h3]Milwaukee Brewers[/h3]
The Brewers' trek to the bottom of baseball in terms of farm systems isn't simply due to poor drafting, as they sent out prospects to land some proven pitching last winter. The Brewers may soon find themselves in need of in-house help as Prince Fielder hits free agency and the contracts of Ryan Braun and Rickie Weeks kick in to swallow up a higher percentage of their available payroll.
Adding a pair of future big leaguers in Round 1 this year -- they have two top-15 picks -- could be a major coup as they look to start replenish the system that lost, among others, their two top pitching prospects and their No. 1 overall prospect, Brett Lawrie, in the deals to add Shaun Marcum and Zack Greinke. In lieu of spending big money down the line, the Brewers should aim for another run of homegrown players that gave them Braun, Fielder, Weeks, Corey Hart and ace right-hander Yovani Gallardo.
[h3]Chicago White Sox[/h3]
The White Sox may currently overtake the Brewers for the worst farm system in the game since two of their best prospects -- left-hander Chris Sale and third baseman Brent Morel -- have graduated to the big leagues and no longer qualify. Add an injury to Jared Mitchell into the equation and the White Sox could really use a major haul of quality talent out of this year's draft.
Unfortunately, the Sox do not select until the sandwich round at No. 47 overall, but could choose to spend well over slot money on a talent who falls to make up for the lack of a first-round pick (lost to the Washington Nationals for signing Adam Dunn this past winter).
The White Sox have no glaring holes on their roster, but some of their higher-priced players aren't performing, which could serve as a bit of a lesson learned. Be more like the Rays and Marlins -- produce an Evan Longoria, Mike Stanton or Logan Morrison every few years, and Dunn and his bloated contract won't be necessary. And since the Sox spend too much cash annually to rebuild for a year, nailing the draft is that much more crucial.
There are some clubs, however, that may need to get production out of this year's draft class for various reasons, despite having money to spend on free agents to cover holes not filled with homegrown talent.
[h3]New York Mets[/h3]
It's critical to their future success for the Mets to start producing more talent from within and that starts with the draft. Their financial status may improve soon once the new investor becomes an official minority owner, but as pricey veterans are shipped out, the organization may not have the impact players to replace them going forward.
This is the consequence of lackluster draft results during the Rudy Terrasas era, which dropped the club to the No. 26 ranking in Keith Law's organizational farm system rankings over the winter. To avoid another free-agent spending spree, new scouting director Chad McDonald must add impact players to the system and with a deep draft class at hand, there are no excuses for failure. A solid draft will greatly help the Mets' chances to sustain contention.
[h3]New York Yankees[/h3]
Despite spending more money on the big league payroll than any other franchise in team sports history, the Yankees have found that when their money isn't enough to lure what they need, it'd be nice to have options filtering throughout the organization.
The Yankees surprisingly have as poor a track record in the first round as any team in the entire league, producing just two players -- Derek Jeter in 1992 and Phil Hughes in 2004 -- that have made an impact. Granted, many of those first-round picks have been in the 20s or later due to the Yankees successes in the '70s, '90s and the past decade, but the paucity of strong drafts may be catching up with the Yankees.
The '90s run started with homegrown talent and while the Latin scene is certainly a strong front -- Jesus Montero, Robinson Cano and Manny Banuelos, to name the top three -- getting major league players from the draft has to become more of a priority, especially as the Yankees begin to age. Plus, if they want to spend money, drafted prospects will gladly accept their checks, unlike Cliff Lee last winter.
[h3]Los Angeles Dodgers[/h3]
Not unlike the Mets -- and perhaps much, much worse -- the Dodgers could be in a tough financial state for a year or more, potentially limiting their ability to sign free agents and make trades that add payroll. If the ownership problems linger, the draft may be the best way the organization can add impact players, and when the Dodgers were at their best, they built their winning teams with a good percentage of their own cultivations.
Logan White and Ned Colletti are in a tough situation, however, as they may not be allowed by MLB to go over slot, which abbreviates the damage they can do in this year's draft.
[h3]Toronto Blue Jays[/h3]
The Jays find themselves in a similar category as the Rays, Royals, Twins and Rockies -- having to draft well because they can't keep up with their rivals on the free-agent front.
But the Jays are a mid-market club in terms of payroll and if they want to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox in the AL East, they have to beat them in the draft. This year the Jays have extra picks, and will need to use them wisely if they want to gain ground in the standings in the next few years.
[h3]Chicago Cubs[/h3]
The Cubs went for signability last June and haven't fared well early in drafts under Tim Wilken, at least not yet. Brett Jackson has a chance to make an impact, as does Andrew Cashner, but the club's current 40-man roster consists of just seven players drafted by the club, and only one, catcher Geovany Soto, has made an All-Star team.
With strong organizations at the top of their division in the St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds, the Cubs have to find a way to add high-quality players to their organization without trading away young talent in order to get it, as they did last winter in acquiring Matt Garza. They've done well on the international market -- Carlos Marmol, Carlos Zambrano, Starlin Castro -- but the draft has been a fairly empty cupboard and has left their farm system in the bottom half of the league.
[h3]Houston Astros[/h3]
The Astros have had a little luck on the international market to help build their farm system, but if they aren't going to add more young talent when they trade proven veterans (than what they did when they sent Roy Oswalt to Philadelphia), they may find themselves looking up at Pittsburgh in the NL Central for the foreseeable future.
Scouting director Bobby Heck has found some good value in the draft of late, including right-hander Jordan Lyles and three solid picks from a year ago, but the Astros appear to be several players from competing and have to continue to stockpile the farm system in hopes that a few of their choices develop into superstar players. With the recent departure of Lance Berkman and Oswalt, Houston doesn't have one on its roster.
The new ownership could change the way the organization approaches free agency, but it's difficult to imagine the draft becoming less critical for the Astros right now.
[h3]Milwaukee Brewers[/h3]
The Brewers' trek to the bottom of baseball in terms of farm systems isn't simply due to poor drafting, as they sent out prospects to land some proven pitching last winter. The Brewers may soon find themselves in need of in-house help as Prince Fielder hits free agency and the contracts of Ryan Braun and Rickie Weeks kick in to swallow up a higher percentage of their available payroll.
Adding a pair of future big leaguers in Round 1 this year -- they have two top-15 picks -- could be a major coup as they look to start replenish the system that lost, among others, their two top pitching prospects and their No. 1 overall prospect, Brett Lawrie, in the deals to add Shaun Marcum and Zack Greinke. In lieu of spending big money down the line, the Brewers should aim for another run of homegrown players that gave them Braun, Fielder, Weeks, Corey Hart and ace right-hander Yovani Gallardo.
[h3]Chicago White Sox[/h3]
The White Sox may currently overtake the Brewers for the worst farm system in the game since two of their best prospects -- left-hander Chris Sale and third baseman Brent Morel -- have graduated to the big leagues and no longer qualify. Add an injury to Jared Mitchell into the equation and the White Sox could really use a major haul of quality talent out of this year's draft.
Unfortunately, the Sox do not select until the sandwich round at No. 47 overall, but could choose to spend well over slot money on a talent who falls to make up for the lack of a first-round pick (lost to the Washington Nationals for signing Adam Dunn this past winter).
The White Sox have no glaring holes on their roster, but some of their higher-priced players aren't performing, which could serve as a bit of a lesson learned. Be more like the Rays and Marlins -- produce an Evan Longoria, Mike Stanton or Logan Morrison every few years, and Dunn and his bloated contract won't be necessary. And since the Sox spend too much cash annually to rebuild for a year, nailing the draft is that much more crucial.
Draft Top 100.
Spoiler [+]
This is the final top 100 update for this year's Rule 4 draft. The top four remain unchanged but I've moved a lot of guys around based on recent reports, more conversations with scouts, a few games I saw recently and a fair amount of video I've received from contacts in the game.
This is my ranking of these players, roughly the order in which I would take them if signability was not a factor. This is not, however, a projection of where these players will be selected. The most recent projection went up on Friday, June 3, and I'll post one more on Monday morning before the draft begins.
Gerrit Cole
RHP
6-4
220
Analysis: His fastball grades out as an 80 on the 20-80 scouting scale, and his change grades as a 70. He also has an above-average slider and a good delivery, but he needs a different pitching plan. He's a potential No. 1 starter. Previous Rankings: 3 | 1 | 1 | 1
Anthony Rendon
3B
6-0
190
Analysis: Tough spring with sore shoulder limiting him, but plus bat speed and plus defender at third is a rare combo. Previous Rankings: 1 | 2 | 2 | 2
Bubba Starling
CF
6-5
195
Analysis: Best all-around athlete in the draft, five-tool centerfielder with explosiveness in every facet of the game. Previous Rankings: 4 | 3 | 3 | 3
Dylan Bundy
RHP
6-1
205
Analysis: One of the top high school pitchers in recent memory, maybe the best since Beckett, up to 99 with an insane work ethic, a knockout cutter and makeup that scouts love. Previous Rankings: 13 | 6 | 4 | 4
Archie Bradley
RHP
6-3
215
Analysis: Two-sport commit to Oklahoma, but his future is on a mound, where he's up to 98 with the draft's best curveball. Previous Rankings: 9 | 13 | 10 | 10
Trevor Bauer
RHP
6-2
185
Analysis: There are questions, but he's the best-performing pitcher in Division I this year with three above-average pitches and plenty of durability. Previous Rankings: 25 | 27 | 12 | 7
Danny Hultzen
LHP
6-3
200
Analysis: Extremely polished college lefty; very safe pick but lacks the ceiling of some other arms in this group. Previous Rankings: 19 | 4 | 5 | 5
Taylor Jungmann
RHP
6-6
220
Analysis: Fastball isn't plus but the control is and the breaking ball is, and he has so little effort that there may be more velocity in the body. Previous Rankings: 11 | 11 | 7 | 8
Alex Meyer
RHP
6-9
220
Analysis: Could rival Cole for the best pure stuff in the college ranks but control and command have improved just to fringe-average. Previous Rankings: 23 | 23 | 13 | 6
Matt Barnes
RHP
6-4
203
Analysis: Big, easy arm strength, flashing an above-average or better curveball, but the delivery isn't clean and the third pitch is a work in progress. Previous Rankings: 6 | 14 | 14 | 9
Taylor Guerrieri
RHP
6-3
180
Analysis: Ridiculous fastball/breaking ball combination, but off-field questions and a late-season fade have dimmed his star slightly. Previous Rankings: 48 | 7 | 8 | 11
Sonny Gray
RHP
5-11
180
Analysis: Changed the grip on his changeup recently to give him a third weapon behind the plus fastball and plus curveball, but will he stay a starter at 5-foot-10? Previous Rankings: 5 | 5 | 6 | 14
Francisco Lindor
SS
5-11
170
Analysis: Best pure shortstop in the draft with the ability to hit from both sides. Previous Rankings: 8 | 8 | 9 | 12
Mikie Mahtook
OF
6-1
192
Analysis: Five tools, not all plus but all present, in a true centerfielder who plays like his hair's on fire. Previous Rankings: 38 | 16 | 16 | 15
Josh Bell
OF
6-3
190
Analysis: In some minds, the draft's best pure bat, with a good approach to go with incredible hand acceleration, but he'll move to left field in pro ball and is a strong commit to the University of Texas. Previous Rankings: 22 | 21 | 21 | 21
George Springer
OF
6-3
220
Analysis: Best tools among college position players, but approach and swing mechanics questions dropped him out of my preseason top five. Previous Rankings: 2 | 25 | 20 | 16
Jed Bradley
LHP
6-4
224
Analysis: Looks the part as a big lefty with arm strength and some feel for a changeup, but lack of a breaking ball hurts him in a deep pitching crop. Previous Rankings: 12 | 10 | 11 | 13
Dillon Howard
RHP
6-2
200
Analysis: Projectable, high-ceiling high school arm; a little on the raw side but with plenty of upside. Previous Rankings: 14 | 18 | 18 | 18
Blake Swihart
C
6-1
175
Analysis: Approach hasn't been great and he's played multiple positions this spring, but I still like him as a switch-hitting offensive catcher with good athleticism behind the dish. Previous Rankings: 10 | 9 | 15 | 17
Cory Spangenberg
SS
6-0
184
Analysis: Plus runner with a pretty left-handed swing; very signable after transfering from VMI last fall. Previous Rankings: 50 | 44 | 23 | 23
Javier Baez
SS
6-1
205
Analysis: Explosive bat with big, raw power potential who could stay at shortstop but probably moves to third base. Previous Rankings: NR | 33 | 25 | 20
Levi Michael
SS
5-10
180
Analysis: Best college shortstop, a switch-hitter who can fly and is just 20 years old as a true junior. Previous Rankings: 26 | 22 | 22 | 22
Joe Ross
RHP
6-2
180
Analysis: Tyson's brother is more athletic, more projectable, and has a much cleaner arm action, giving him a far better chance to hold up as a starter. Previous Rankings: 41 | 29 | 26 | 25
Anthony Meo
RHP
6-2
185
Analysis: Big two-pitch combination with a good delivery, but hasn't shown the third average or better pitch to remain a starter yet. Previous Rankings: 35 | 19 | 19 | 19
Brian Goodwin
CF
6-1
190
Analysis: Former UNC standout has four tools with the potential to add power down the road and bounced back after a slow start this year in junior college. Previous Rankings: 17 | 40 | 27 | 26
[h4]NO. 26-100[/h4]
[th=""]RANK[/th][th=""]NAME[/th][th=""]POS[/th][th=""]SCHOOL[/th]
What's wrong with RA Dickey.
The underrated Alexei Ramirez.
Jonny Venter's season.
This is my ranking of these players, roughly the order in which I would take them if signability was not a factor. This is not, however, a projection of where these players will be selected. The most recent projection went up on Friday, June 3, and I'll post one more on Monday morning before the draft begins.
Gerrit Cole
RHP
6-4
220
Analysis: His fastball grades out as an 80 on the 20-80 scouting scale, and his change grades as a 70. He also has an above-average slider and a good delivery, but he needs a different pitching plan. He's a potential No. 1 starter. Previous Rankings: 3 | 1 | 1 | 1
Anthony Rendon
3B
6-0
190
Analysis: Tough spring with sore shoulder limiting him, but plus bat speed and plus defender at third is a rare combo. Previous Rankings: 1 | 2 | 2 | 2
Bubba Starling
CF
6-5
195
Analysis: Best all-around athlete in the draft, five-tool centerfielder with explosiveness in every facet of the game. Previous Rankings: 4 | 3 | 3 | 3
Dylan Bundy
RHP
6-1
205
Analysis: One of the top high school pitchers in recent memory, maybe the best since Beckett, up to 99 with an insane work ethic, a knockout cutter and makeup that scouts love. Previous Rankings: 13 | 6 | 4 | 4
Archie Bradley
RHP
6-3
215
Analysis: Two-sport commit to Oklahoma, but his future is on a mound, where he's up to 98 with the draft's best curveball. Previous Rankings: 9 | 13 | 10 | 10
Trevor Bauer
RHP
6-2
185
Analysis: There are questions, but he's the best-performing pitcher in Division I this year with three above-average pitches and plenty of durability. Previous Rankings: 25 | 27 | 12 | 7
Danny Hultzen
LHP
6-3
200
Analysis: Extremely polished college lefty; very safe pick but lacks the ceiling of some other arms in this group. Previous Rankings: 19 | 4 | 5 | 5
Taylor Jungmann
RHP
6-6
220
Analysis: Fastball isn't plus but the control is and the breaking ball is, and he has so little effort that there may be more velocity in the body. Previous Rankings: 11 | 11 | 7 | 8
Alex Meyer
RHP
6-9
220
Analysis: Could rival Cole for the best pure stuff in the college ranks but control and command have improved just to fringe-average. Previous Rankings: 23 | 23 | 13 | 6
Matt Barnes
RHP
6-4
203
Analysis: Big, easy arm strength, flashing an above-average or better curveball, but the delivery isn't clean and the third pitch is a work in progress. Previous Rankings: 6 | 14 | 14 | 9
Taylor Guerrieri
RHP
6-3
180
Analysis: Ridiculous fastball/breaking ball combination, but off-field questions and a late-season fade have dimmed his star slightly. Previous Rankings: 48 | 7 | 8 | 11
Sonny Gray
RHP
5-11
180
Analysis: Changed the grip on his changeup recently to give him a third weapon behind the plus fastball and plus curveball, but will he stay a starter at 5-foot-10? Previous Rankings: 5 | 5 | 6 | 14
Francisco Lindor
SS
5-11
170
Analysis: Best pure shortstop in the draft with the ability to hit from both sides. Previous Rankings: 8 | 8 | 9 | 12
Mikie Mahtook
OF
6-1
192
Analysis: Five tools, not all plus but all present, in a true centerfielder who plays like his hair's on fire. Previous Rankings: 38 | 16 | 16 | 15
Josh Bell
OF
6-3
190
Analysis: In some minds, the draft's best pure bat, with a good approach to go with incredible hand acceleration, but he'll move to left field in pro ball and is a strong commit to the University of Texas. Previous Rankings: 22 | 21 | 21 | 21
George Springer
OF
6-3
220
Analysis: Best tools among college position players, but approach and swing mechanics questions dropped him out of my preseason top five. Previous Rankings: 2 | 25 | 20 | 16
Jed Bradley
LHP
6-4
224
Analysis: Looks the part as a big lefty with arm strength and some feel for a changeup, but lack of a breaking ball hurts him in a deep pitching crop. Previous Rankings: 12 | 10 | 11 | 13
Dillon Howard
RHP
6-2
200
Analysis: Projectable, high-ceiling high school arm; a little on the raw side but with plenty of upside. Previous Rankings: 14 | 18 | 18 | 18
Blake Swihart
C
6-1
175
Analysis: Approach hasn't been great and he's played multiple positions this spring, but I still like him as a switch-hitting offensive catcher with good athleticism behind the dish. Previous Rankings: 10 | 9 | 15 | 17
Cory Spangenberg
SS
6-0
184
Analysis: Plus runner with a pretty left-handed swing; very signable after transfering from VMI last fall. Previous Rankings: 50 | 44 | 23 | 23
Javier Baez
SS
6-1
205
Analysis: Explosive bat with big, raw power potential who could stay at shortstop but probably moves to third base. Previous Rankings: NR | 33 | 25 | 20
Levi Michael
SS
5-10
180
Analysis: Best college shortstop, a switch-hitter who can fly and is just 20 years old as a true junior. Previous Rankings: 26 | 22 | 22 | 22
Joe Ross
RHP
6-2
180
Analysis: Tyson's brother is more athletic, more projectable, and has a much cleaner arm action, giving him a far better chance to hold up as a starter. Previous Rankings: 41 | 29 | 26 | 25
Anthony Meo
RHP
6-2
185
Analysis: Big two-pitch combination with a good delivery, but hasn't shown the third average or better pitch to remain a starter yet. Previous Rankings: 35 | 19 | 19 | 19
Brian Goodwin
CF
6-1
190
Analysis: Former UNC standout has four tools with the potential to add power down the road and bounced back after a slow start this year in junior college. Previous Rankings: 17 | 40 | 27 | 26
[h4]NO. 26-100[/h4]
| 26 | Jose Fernandez | RHP | Alonso High School |
| 27 | Andrew Susac | c | Oregon State |
| 28 | Jackie Bradley Jr. | cf | South Carolina |
| 29 | Robert Stephenson | RHP | Alhambra (Calif.) HS |
| 30 | Tyler Beede | rhp | Lawrence Academy (Groton, Mass.) |
| 31 | Austin Hedges | c | JSerra Catholic (Capistrano, Calif.) |
| 32 | Tyler Goeddel | OF | Saint Francis HS (Mountain View, Calif.) |
| 33 | Brandon Nimmo | RF | East HS (Cheyenne, Wyo.) |
| 34 | Henry Owens | LHP | Edison HS (Huntington Beach, Calif.) |
| 35 | Daniel Norris | LHP | Science Hill HS (Johnson City, Tenn.) |
| 36 | Travis Harrison | 3b | Tustin (Calif.) HS |
| 37 | Alex Dickerson | of | Indiana |
| 38 | Charles Tilson | OF | New Trier (Ill.)High |
| 39 | Nick Delmonico | c/3b | Farragut HS (Knoxville, Tenn.) |
| 40 | Hudson Boyd | rhp | Bishop Verot HS (Fort Myers, Fla.) |
| 41 | Kevin Comer | rhp | Seneca HS (Vincetown, N.J.) |
| 42 | Michael Kelly | rhp | West Boca Raton (Fla.) HS |
| 43 | Kyle Winkler | rhp | TCU |
| 44 | Johnny Eierman | of | Warsaw (Mo.) HS |
| 45 | C.J. Cron | 1b | Utah |
| 46 | Grayson Garvin | lhp | Vanderbilt |
| 47 | Andrew Chafin | lhp | Kent State |
| 48 | Chris Reed | lhp | Stanford |
| 49 | Josh Osich | lhp | Oregon State |
| 50 | Erik Johnson | rhp | Cal |
| 51 | Tyler Anderson | lhp | Oregon |
| 52 | Nick Maronde | rhp | Florida |
| 53 | Brandon Martin | ss | Corona (CA) Santiago HS |
| 54 | Jason Esposito | 3b | Vanderbilt |
| 55 | Philip Evans | ss | La Costa HS (Carlsbad, CA) |
| 56 | Jack Armstrong | rhp | Vanderbilt |
| 57 | Larry Greene | of | Berrien County HS (Nashville, GA) |
| 58 | Shawon Dunston Jr. | of | Valley Christian HS (Fremont, CA) |
| 59 | James McCann | c | Arkansas |
| 60 | Pratt Maynard | c | NC State |
| 61 | Senquez Golson | of | Pascagoula (MS) HS |
| 62 | Cody Kukuk | lhp | Free State HS (McLouth, KS) |
| 63 | Carl Thomore | of | East Brunswick (NJ) HS |
| 64 | Granden Goetzeman | SS | Palmetto HS |
| 65 | Derek Fisher | of | Cedar Crest HS (Lebanon, PA) |
| 66 | Dillon Maples | rhp | Pinecrest HS (Southern Pines, N.C.) |
| 67 | Sean Gilmartin | lhp | Florida State |
| 68 | Kyle Crick | rhp | Sherman HS |
| 69 | Brett Austin | C | Providence (Charlotte, N.C.) HS |
| 70 | Blake Snell | lhp | Shorewood HS |
| 71 | Trevor Story | SS | Irving HS |
| 72 | Kevin Cron | C | Mountain Pointe High School |
| 73 | Dwight Smith | OF | McIntosh HS |
| 74 | Tyler Greene | ss | West Boca HS (Boca Raton, Fla.) |
| 75 | Kolten Wong | 2B | Hawaii |
| 76 | Adrian Houser | rhp | Locust Grove (Okla.) HS |
| 77 | Tony Zych | rhp | Louisville |
| 78 | Logan Verrett | RHP | Baylor |
| 79 | J.R. Graham | RHP | Santa Clara |
| 80 | Carter Capps | rhp | Mount Olive College |
| 81 | Ian Gardeck | RHP | Angelina College |
| 82 | James Harris | OF | Oakland Technical HS |
| 83 | John Hicks | C | Virginia |
| 84 | Bryan Brickhouse | rhp | Woodlands HS |
| 85 | Jordan Cote | RHP | Winnisquam |
| 86 | Adam McCreery | LHP | Bonita HS (La Verne, Calif.) |
| 87 | Kes Carter | OF | Western Kentucky |
| 88 | Jacob Anderson | P/1B | Chino HS (Calif.) |
| 89 | Ben Roberts | of | Missoula (Mont.) Sentinel HS |
| 90 | Ryan Wright | 2B | Louisville |
| 91 | Michael Reed | OF | Leander (Texas) HS |
| 92 | Ricky Jacquez | RHP | Franklin HS |
| 93 | Michael Fulmer | rhp | Deer Creek HS |
| 94 | B.A. Vollmuth | 3B | Southern Miss |
| 95 | Joseph Musgrove | rhp | Grossmont HS (Calif.) |
| 96 | David Goforth | rhp | Ole Miss |
| 97 | Williams Jerez | OF | Grand Street Campus (N.Y.) |
| 98 | Joe Panik | SS | St. John's |
| 99 | Kevin Moriarty | rhp | Shorewood HS (Shoreline WA) |
| 100 | Matt Purke | lhp | TCU |
What's wrong with RA Dickey.
Spoiler [+]
It's all too easy to diagnose the Mets' problem this season: Their pitching has been a nightmare. With them sitting in fourth place in the National League East at 27-31, their offense has been passable, ranking 15th in the majors in runs scored despite missing David Wright and Ike Davis for extended periods of time. Meanwhile, their 4.33 team ERA ranks as the third worst in the NL ahead of only the Cubs and Astros. They already have had to use seven different starting pitchers in games, and they have had two starters -- Chris Capuano and Mike Pelfrey -- post ERAs of more than 5.00 while throwing 25 percent of the team's total innings pitched.
This should come as little surprise to Mets fans, as the team entered the season with a very uncertain, risk-filled rotation. But while they expected some pitchers to struggle this year, there's one player the Mets were counting on to bolster the front end of their rotation: R.A. Dickey.
Upon arriving in New York last year, Dickey immediately became a favorite among Mets fans. How could you hate the guy? He's a knuckleballer -- a journeyman pitcher who had never had extended success before in his career. He is well spoken and humble, and his name makes the 11-year-old in each of us smirk. He finished 2010 with a 2.84 ERA in 174 innings pitched, and the Mets rewarded him with a two-year, $7.8 million contract in the offseason. If their rotation was going to be a mess, at least they would have one spot they could feel comfortable about.
Well, so much for that. Dickey has struggled early this season, posting a 4.39 ERA. His walk rate has increased, he's allowing more hits and home runs, and he's not getting batters to swing and miss on pitches quite as often. So what's wrong with him? Was his success last season a mere mirage, or is there reason to believe he will improve going forward? Have no fear, Mets fans -- the Dickey you know and love is only a slight adjustment away.
To understand Dickey's troubles so far this season, it helps to understand his pitch repertoire. Unlike fellow knuckleballer Tim Wakefield, Dickey essentially has three pitches: a slow knuckleball, a fast knuckleball and a sinker. His slow knuckleball ranges around 76 to 79 mph, while his fast knuckler has been known to peak in the mid-to-low 80s. He throws both knuckleballs equally often, although he uses his slow knuckler early in counts and his fast as a knockout pitch, and together they account for around 80 percent of his pitches. The remaining 20 percent of the time, Dickey throws his sinking fastball, which averages around 84 mph -- compared to Wakefield, Dickey throws heat.
This added velocity on his knuckleball causes batters to hit a large number of ground balls; when combined with his sinker, this fast knuckleball gives Dickey a 56 percent ground ball rate -- a very high rate. Ground balls are a very good outcome for a pitcher to get, as they result in hits only around 23 percent of the time and have a very low likelihood of turning into an extra-base hit.
This season, Dickey's pitching repertoire has remained nearly exactly the same as last year. He is still throwing his fast and slow knuckleballs in similar counts and in the same proportion, and his fastball has remained as effective as last year. As such, his problem stems from the one thing that has changed slightly from last season: his knuckleball's movement.
The knuckleball's strength is also its Achilles' heel: It's totally unpredictable. When a pitcher releases a knuckler, he typically aims for the middle of the strike zone, since he has no way of knowing in which direction the pitch will break. But while knuckleball pitchers can't control a knuckler's movement, they can control how much it breaks. Depending on how they release the pitch, they can subtly influence whether the pitch breaks only a handful of inches or if it dances a full foot away from where the pitcher was aiming.
As Dickey has stated in the past, finding the optimal break on a knuckleball is a lot like finding your golf swing: It's more a matter of feel than anything. Make the pitch break too much, and it will end up outside the zone. But if you don't make the pitch break enough, you are essentially leaving the batter a juicy 78 mph fat one over the heart of the plate, begging for him to crush it.
For whatever reason, Dickey's knuckleballs are not dancing as much right now. Last season, the majority of his knuckleballs ended up breaking 10 inches or less; this season, they are breaking around 7 inches or less. On one hand, this is a good thing -- Dickey has thrown around 5 percent more first-pitch strikes this season, and his pitches are finding the zone more often. But if his knuckler doesn't dance enough, it also makes it much easier to hit. Six of his seven home runs allowed have come off knuckleballs, with four of them sitting right over the heart of the plate. And when batters hit a ball in play against Dickey, it's falling for a hit 32 percent of the time, which speaks partly to bad luck and partly to batters hitting the ball hard off him.
Although Dickey's ERA this season is considerably higher than what he posted last season, he's not that far from recapturing his success. While he is unlikely to post another ERA in the 2s, there is no reason he can't continue to be an above-average pitcher for the Mets, eating innings and posting an ERA in the mid-to-high 3s. All he needs to do is rediscover his touch with his knuckleball and get it dancing a little more.
This should come as little surprise to Mets fans, as the team entered the season with a very uncertain, risk-filled rotation. But while they expected some pitchers to struggle this year, there's one player the Mets were counting on to bolster the front end of their rotation: R.A. Dickey.
Upon arriving in New York last year, Dickey immediately became a favorite among Mets fans. How could you hate the guy? He's a knuckleballer -- a journeyman pitcher who had never had extended success before in his career. He is well spoken and humble, and his name makes the 11-year-old in each of us smirk. He finished 2010 with a 2.84 ERA in 174 innings pitched, and the Mets rewarded him with a two-year, $7.8 million contract in the offseason. If their rotation was going to be a mess, at least they would have one spot they could feel comfortable about.
Well, so much for that. Dickey has struggled early this season, posting a 4.39 ERA. His walk rate has increased, he's allowing more hits and home runs, and he's not getting batters to swing and miss on pitches quite as often. So what's wrong with him? Was his success last season a mere mirage, or is there reason to believe he will improve going forward? Have no fear, Mets fans -- the Dickey you know and love is only a slight adjustment away.
To understand Dickey's troubles so far this season, it helps to understand his pitch repertoire. Unlike fellow knuckleballer Tim Wakefield, Dickey essentially has three pitches: a slow knuckleball, a fast knuckleball and a sinker. His slow knuckleball ranges around 76 to 79 mph, while his fast knuckler has been known to peak in the mid-to-low 80s. He throws both knuckleballs equally often, although he uses his slow knuckler early in counts and his fast as a knockout pitch, and together they account for around 80 percent of his pitches. The remaining 20 percent of the time, Dickey throws his sinking fastball, which averages around 84 mph -- compared to Wakefield, Dickey throws heat.
This added velocity on his knuckleball causes batters to hit a large number of ground balls; when combined with his sinker, this fast knuckleball gives Dickey a 56 percent ground ball rate -- a very high rate. Ground balls are a very good outcome for a pitcher to get, as they result in hits only around 23 percent of the time and have a very low likelihood of turning into an extra-base hit.
This season, Dickey's pitching repertoire has remained nearly exactly the same as last year. He is still throwing his fast and slow knuckleballs in similar counts and in the same proportion, and his fastball has remained as effective as last year. As such, his problem stems from the one thing that has changed slightly from last season: his knuckleball's movement.
The knuckleball's strength is also its Achilles' heel: It's totally unpredictable. When a pitcher releases a knuckler, he typically aims for the middle of the strike zone, since he has no way of knowing in which direction the pitch will break. But while knuckleball pitchers can't control a knuckler's movement, they can control how much it breaks. Depending on how they release the pitch, they can subtly influence whether the pitch breaks only a handful of inches or if it dances a full foot away from where the pitcher was aiming.
As Dickey has stated in the past, finding the optimal break on a knuckleball is a lot like finding your golf swing: It's more a matter of feel than anything. Make the pitch break too much, and it will end up outside the zone. But if you don't make the pitch break enough, you are essentially leaving the batter a juicy 78 mph fat one over the heart of the plate, begging for him to crush it.
For whatever reason, Dickey's knuckleballs are not dancing as much right now. Last season, the majority of his knuckleballs ended up breaking 10 inches or less; this season, they are breaking around 7 inches or less. On one hand, this is a good thing -- Dickey has thrown around 5 percent more first-pitch strikes this season, and his pitches are finding the zone more often. But if his knuckler doesn't dance enough, it also makes it much easier to hit. Six of his seven home runs allowed have come off knuckleballs, with four of them sitting right over the heart of the plate. And when batters hit a ball in play against Dickey, it's falling for a hit 32 percent of the time, which speaks partly to bad luck and partly to batters hitting the ball hard off him.
Although Dickey's ERA this season is considerably higher than what he posted last season, he's not that far from recapturing his success. While he is unlikely to post another ERA in the 2s, there is no reason he can't continue to be an above-average pitcher for the Mets, eating innings and posting an ERA in the mid-to-high 3s. All he needs to do is rediscover his touch with his knuckleball and get it dancing a little more.
The underrated Alexei Ramirez.
Spoiler [+]
When it comes to shortstops, the National League is stacked. Troy Tulowitzki is generally accepted to be one of the game's best players, and it was no surprise when he was selected first overall in ESPN's Franchise Player Draft on Wednesday. The NL also boasts Hanley Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins and a revitalized Jose Reyes for those who like guys who can run, and Stephen Drew's production at the position is one of the reasons the Diamondbacks are surprising contenders in the NL West. Toss in 21-year-old Starlin Castro, and there will be some tough decisions to be made when it comes time to pick who will represent the Senior Circuit at the position in next month's All-Star Game.
Over in the American League, however, it's a different story. Derek Jeter is the big name but his skills have eroded to the point that he's barely contributing anymore, and the rest of the teams in the Junior Circuit field shortstops who are mostly anonymous to the national public. However, there's one shortstop in the AL who deserves more recognition than he's received to date and has shown that he's good enough to hang with the big boys at the position.
Alexei Ramirez has quietly become the best player on the White Sox and is perhaps the best-kept secret in all of baseball. How underrated is he? He's not even in the top five in voting at the position for next month's All-Star Game, although at this point, he's clearly the best shortstop the AL has to offer.
Since the beginning of the 2009 season, when the White Sox shifted him across the bag from second base to shortstop, Ramirez has posted the highest UZR of any player at the position in either league, even ahead of defensive specialists such as Cesar Izturis, Elvis Andrus and Brendan Ryan.
And unlike that trio, Ramirez can actually hit.
He's not quite Tulowitzki at the plate, but Ramirez has legitimate power; he averaged 18 home runs per season during his first three years in the big leagues. He combines above-average power with quality contact skills, allowing him to avoid strikeouts and keep his batting average at a more than respectable level. Ramirez has never been the most patient hitter at the plate, but he's nearly doubled his walk rate from last year, and he's currently only seven walks away from tying his entire 2010 total.
Even as offense around the league has decreased the past few years, Ramirez has continued to improve, and he is now on pace to have the best season of his career. In fact, the 2.7 wins above replacement that he has accumulated so far this season is second only to Reyes among shortstops in MLB. This isn't just a flukey hot start to the season, either -- Ramirez has been legitimately terrific for several years now.
Since the beginning of the 2009 season, Ramirez has posted 9.3 WAR, the fourth-highest total of any shortstop in baseball, American League or National League. The only players ahead of him? Tulowitzki, Ramirez and Jeter, and I doubt you'll find too many people who think that Jeter is still a high-quality player at this point in his career.
And yet, Ramirez is never mentioned as one of the best in the league at the position. Perhaps it is partially due to the fact that he spent his rookie year as a poor defensive second baseman who made a lot of mental mistakes, or maybe it's just that he doesn't fit the mold of a high-profile player. He doesn't have the flair of Reyes or make as many highlight-reel plays as Andrus, but the reality is that Ramirez has produced at an elite level since moving to the position.
Reyes is going to cash in on the scarcity of shortstops in baseball this winter when he lands a monster contract as a free agent, but his signing will only continue to reinforce how valuable Ramirez is to the White Sox. After getting away with paying him just a total of $6.3 million over the first four years of his career (including just $2.75 million this season), the White Sox were able to lock up the next four years of his career for a total of just $32.5 million, a fraction of what Reyes will get in the free-agent market this winter, and just a drop in the bucket compared to the massive 10-year, $157 million contract the Rockies gave Tulowitzki.
Not only is Ramirez producing an an All-Star level for the White Sox, he's doing so while earning a fraction of what he's worth, and the contract extension he signed will keep it that way for the foreseeable future. Underappreciated and underpaid, Ramirez is truly one of the game's hidden gems.
Over in the American League, however, it's a different story. Derek Jeter is the big name but his skills have eroded to the point that he's barely contributing anymore, and the rest of the teams in the Junior Circuit field shortstops who are mostly anonymous to the national public. However, there's one shortstop in the AL who deserves more recognition than he's received to date and has shown that he's good enough to hang with the big boys at the position.
Alexei Ramirez has quietly become the best player on the White Sox and is perhaps the best-kept secret in all of baseball. How underrated is he? He's not even in the top five in voting at the position for next month's All-Star Game, although at this point, he's clearly the best shortstop the AL has to offer.
Since the beginning of the 2009 season, when the White Sox shifted him across the bag from second base to shortstop, Ramirez has posted the highest UZR of any player at the position in either league, even ahead of defensive specialists such as Cesar Izturis, Elvis Andrus and Brendan Ryan.
And unlike that trio, Ramirez can actually hit.
He's not quite Tulowitzki at the plate, but Ramirez has legitimate power; he averaged 18 home runs per season during his first three years in the big leagues. He combines above-average power with quality contact skills, allowing him to avoid strikeouts and keep his batting average at a more than respectable level. Ramirez has never been the most patient hitter at the plate, but he's nearly doubled his walk rate from last year, and he's currently only seven walks away from tying his entire 2010 total.
Even as offense around the league has decreased the past few years, Ramirez has continued to improve, and he is now on pace to have the best season of his career. In fact, the 2.7 wins above replacement that he has accumulated so far this season is second only to Reyes among shortstops in MLB. This isn't just a flukey hot start to the season, either -- Ramirez has been legitimately terrific for several years now.
Since the beginning of the 2009 season, Ramirez has posted 9.3 WAR, the fourth-highest total of any shortstop in baseball, American League or National League. The only players ahead of him? Tulowitzki, Ramirez and Jeter, and I doubt you'll find too many people who think that Jeter is still a high-quality player at this point in his career.
And yet, Ramirez is never mentioned as one of the best in the league at the position. Perhaps it is partially due to the fact that he spent his rookie year as a poor defensive second baseman who made a lot of mental mistakes, or maybe it's just that he doesn't fit the mold of a high-profile player. He doesn't have the flair of Reyes or make as many highlight-reel plays as Andrus, but the reality is that Ramirez has produced at an elite level since moving to the position.
Reyes is going to cash in on the scarcity of shortstops in baseball this winter when he lands a monster contract as a free agent, but his signing will only continue to reinforce how valuable Ramirez is to the White Sox. After getting away with paying him just a total of $6.3 million over the first four years of his career (including just $2.75 million this season), the White Sox were able to lock up the next four years of his career for a total of just $32.5 million, a fraction of what Reyes will get in the free-agent market this winter, and just a drop in the bucket compared to the massive 10-year, $157 million contract the Rockies gave Tulowitzki.
Not only is Ramirez producing an an All-Star level for the White Sox, he's doing so while earning a fraction of what he's worth, and the contract extension he signed will keep it that way for the foreseeable future. Underappreciated and underpaid, Ramirez is truly one of the game's hidden gems.
Jonny Venter's season.
Spoiler [+]
NEW YORK -- A clubhouse attendant who has been around ballplayers for a long, long time reports that he has never heard the kind of visceral, defeated responses from hitters that Jonny Venters generates. They can't stand facing him, and can't stand trying, with great futility, to square up his two-seam fastball, which seems to dive as it reaches home plate. Imagine trying to take a swing against a golf ball thrown from a rooftop.
Venters' numbers tell one side of the story: The guy has allowed two runs in 35⅔ innings. He's pitched 118⅔ innings in the majors and surrendered just one home run. He has struck out 35 batters in 35⅔ innings -- which means he's getting a lot of swings and misses -- and yet is averaging a Halladay-like 13.4 pitches per inning.
But another side of the story of his dominance is told by hitters, like Joey Votto, who made a weak out against Venters last year and then, on his way back to the dugout, veered past the pitcher's mound. "You're not fun to face," Votto said to Venters.
The left-hander grinned as he told this story. His teammates really love Venters for how he carries himself, with total humility and appreciation for what he's doing. "He strikes out the side and he comes off the mound like he can't believe it," said one of the veterans around him.
Venters was initially summoned from the minors last year with the thought that he could match up well against left-handers, but as Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez noted, it really doesn't matter whether you bring him in against left-handers or right-handers … or against the middle of the order or against pinch-hitters. He has completely overpowered everybody.
It doesn't matter to Venters, either, when he pitches. Gonzalez and pitching coach Roger McDowell summoned Venters and closer Craig Kimbrel into a meeting recently and told both of them that there might be days when Venters gets the call to finish a game, rather than Kimbrel. This isn't because of any dissatisfaction with Kimbrel, but because Gonzalez believes that there might be a day when Kimbrel could use a break, and because he figures it's not a bad thing for Venters and the Braves for him to experience the ninth-inning ledge.
Venters kind of shrugged when asked about this, and grinned again. "I don't think either one of us cares about what role we're in," he said, referring to Kimbrel. "For Craig and I, I think the simpler, the better."
Nobody really has a strong theory about why Venters' two-seam fastball moves so violently. Venters started throwing a two-seamer in Triple-A, with the same grip as everybody else, and had some good results. But once he got to big leagues, he noticed that the balls were different -- harder on their surface -- and he liked the adrenaline of coming into a game out of the bullpen. All of a sudden, his two-seamer began developing a reputation as a worthy heir to Mariano Rivera's cutter as the most dominant pitch in the majors.
Opposing hitters are batting .140 against Venters this year and they have a slugging percentage of .167; they have an OPS of .395. They're batting .087 with runners in scoring position, with 10 strikeouts in 23 at-bats and no extra-base hits.
He has faced 34 hitters when working with zero days of rest -- he's worked more innings than any reliever in the majors -- and in those at-bats, he's allowed one hit. That's an .029 batting average, which is impossibly good. "I feel better when I'm throwing more," Venters said. "I feel like I can stay in rhythm."
If there is a kryptonite for Venters, nobody has found it yet.
• Our colleague Orel Hershiser is joining the Steve Garvey group that is looking into the possibility of purchasing sports franchises. I asked Orel if he intended to pursue a possible purchase of the Dodgers, and he said, "The Dodgers are not for sale; I wish them the best."
He also said, "The city of Los Angeles and Dodger fans deserve the best."
This is now called the Garvey-Hershiser Group, Jill Painter writes.
• Last week, Jason Heyward got another MRI that indicated that his shoulder has no structural damage. He has been receiving deep-massage treatment this week, which is apparently helping; he could soon be on his way back.
His teammates want him back as soon as possible, and feel they need him. There is a distinct feeling, in being around the Braves' players, that they want Heyward to grind his way through his discomfort, to get back on the field and play, even if he's not completely 100 percent healthy. They want him to focus on making the necessary adjustments to the way opposing pitchers have attacked him in 2011 -- pounding him with fastballs inside -- and work through his early-season slump. They've seen the impact that he can have in the 187 games he has played.
• Wrote here earlier this week about the interesting quandary of the Seattle Mariners, given the success of Michael Pineda and the fact he's never thrown more than 139⅓ innings in any season. The Texas Rangers have a similar situation with Alexi Ogando -- but under completely different parameters. Ogando is among the early Cy Young candidates in the American League, but he's never pitched a full season as a starter in the majors or the minors, or in the Dominican Republic, where he transitioned from being an outfielder to a relief pitcher.
Ogando is 27 years old, with a body that has filled out. When he was in the Dominican -- working under the tutelage of Jose Jaimes, Pablo Blanco and John Burgos -- he had limited innings, under less stressful competition. "So this is basically new to him and us, as far as any innings limit," Rangers GM Jon Daniels wrote in an email. "He's such a unique guy -- in his delivery, his background, body type, the whole deal -- no real comparables. We're monitoring him, in much the same way we did with C.J. [Wilson] last year. The staff will back off when it can, or if he needs a breather, but we don't have a set number of innings we're aiming for. When he had a blister last month, we skipped a start. He probably could have thrown through it, but we played it safe, thinking that in addition to his finger, the extra time between outings might be beneficial in big picture."
Ron Washington wants Ogando in the All-Star Game, writes Evan Grant.
It's worth repeating: The Rangers have a lot of room for growth. Derek Holland was outstanding on Saturday.
• Jose Reyes hit a bases-loaded triple to key the Mets' 5-0 win over Atlanta on Saturday. Triples have not been a rare occurrence for Reyes thus far in 2011. FROM ELIAS:
[h4]10-plus Triples Through June 4[/h4]
Live Ball Era (since 1920)
[th=""]Year[/th][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Number[/th][h3]The draft[/h3]
The Pirates have a number of candidates for the No. 1 pick, writes Bill Brink, although within the industry the betting is very heavy that they will take Gerrit Cole.
Anthony Rendon could be the second pick in the draft, writes Larry Stone.
The Royals will have options with the No. 5 pick in the draft, writes Bob Dutton.
The draft will provide an opportunity for the Phillies to restock their farm system, writes Bob Brookover.
The Astros could be focusing on high schoolers, writes Zachary Levine.
The Rangers might be passing on a local kid.
• Albert Pujols mashed a couple of homers on Saturday, in what has been a really nice week for him. His numbers the past seven days:
Average: .370
Homers: 4
RBIs: 9
Slugging percentage: .889
OPS: 1.358
More on Pujols, from ESPN Stats & Info: Pujols had his 41st career multi-HR game on Saturday, including his ninth career walk-off. Both of Pujols' home runs came on pitches out of the strike zone. He's only the second player this season (Juan Miranda being the other) to have a multi-HR game on pitches out of the zone. The home runs were Pujols' fourth and fifth of the season on pitches out of the zone, eclipsing his total of four all of last season and pushing him into the MLB lead.
[h4]Albert Pujols, 2011 Season[/h4]
AB Ending On Pitches Out of the Zone
[th=""]Stat[/th][th=""]Number[/th][th=""]MLB Rank<<[/th]
If Pujols is back to his old self, this is bad news for the NL Central, writes Bernie Miklasz.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Evan Longoria left Saturday's game with tightness in his side, Marc Topkin writes.
2. Denard Span sat out a game because of soreness that stems from a slide at the plate. Span looked at the replay and indicated that he wished he had plowed into Brayan Pena, rather than sliding.
3. When Jordan Schafer walked into the Atlanta clubhouse late Saturday afternoon, the condition of his face was something of a shock. After seeing him bunt the ball into his own left cheekbone on Friday night, you would've thought his whole eye would've been blackened -- but that wasn't the case at all. He had some swelling and discomfort, after suffering a non-displaced fracture of his sinus, but he indicated he'd be available to pinch-run in Saturday's game, and that he hoped to be in the lineup Sunday night. We'll see. His injury isn't considered to be serious, Carroll Rogers writes.
4. Clay Buchholz's back trouble may push back his next start.
5. Brandon Belt wound up on the disabled list, on a day when the Giants lost; he has a hairline fracture in his wrist after getting hit by a pitch in St. Louis the other day.
6. Matt Kemp sparked a rally.
7. Rafael Furcal landed on the disabled list again; he refuses to mention the word retire, writes Dylan Hernandez.
8. Hanley Ramirez is likely headed to the DL on Monday.
9. Paul Konerko's sore wrist is keeping him out of the lineup.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Rays dropped Andy Sonnanstine from their rotation, and installed Alex Cobb.
2. Edinson Volquez is getting the ball again for the Reds on Tuesday.
[h3]Saturday's games[/h3]1. CC Sabathia has seven wins this season, after shutting down the Angels on Saturday, and he continues to march steadily toward 200 career victories; he's got 164 career wins at age 30, and has the athleticism and the durability to take a run at 300 career wins.
How Sabathia won, from ESPN Stats & Info:
A) Efficiency … to a lot of hitters. Sabathia faced 37 Angels hitters in his 8⅔ innings but needed only 107 pitches to get through them (2.9 pitches/PA). The 37 plate appearances is tied for tops for any pitcher this year (Jair Jurrjens faced 37 Padres on April 26). There have been three games this season when a hurler has thrown at least 100 pitches and his pitch/PA was less than 3.0 and Sabathia owns two of them (Ricky Romero has the other).
B) He started strong, in innings. Of the nine batters he faced to start innings, he retired eight. Of the 37 batters he faced, only three saw a 2-0 count.
C) He generated good results with non-fastballs. Sabathia split up his fastball/non-fastball numbers evenly (55 fastballs, 52 not) but he had a lot more success with the slower stuff. The Angels were 2-for-18 (.111) on at-bats ending with non-fastballs.
Sabathia has pitched his fourth straight start of at least eight innings, with his 8⅔ IP on Saturday against the Angels. In the past 15 years, the only Yankees pitcher with a longer streak was David Cone, who had five straight in 1998.
2. The Diamondbacks are beginning to develop a nice internal competition, and Joe Saunders -- who has struggled for some of this season -- had a really nice outing. From Stats & Info, how he won:
A) The changeup. Saunders threw 33 changeups and the Nats were 1-for-10 (.100) with a strikeout in at-bats ending on the pitch. The 33 changeups are the most Saunders has thrown in a game since 2009 -- his previous high was 27.
B) He worked outside. Saunders threw 42 of his 93 pitches "outside." Nationals hitters were 1-for-12 (.083) with three strikeouts on at-bats ending on such pitches.
C) He had good control. Of the 26 batters Saunders faced, only four saw a three-ball count (15 percent; league average, 20 percent).
3. Jeremy Hellickson was dominant, on a day when the Rays really needed it.
4. Justin Verlander hoisted the Tigers.
5. Charlie Morton shut down the Phillies, making a knee-buckling pitch along the way.
6. Livan Hernandez was a hard-luck loser.
7. Oakland lost its fifth straight, to Boston, Joe Stiglich writes.
8. A-Rod provided the difference-maker against the Angels, Mike DiGiovanna writes. Alex Rodriguez now ranks ninth all-time in RBIs, with 1,864, and he's got 623 homers.
9. The Padres won again in Petco, for the second straight game, Bill Center writes.
10. The Phillies' hitting woes continue: They lost to the Pirates, again, mustering just three runs.
11. The Braves gave away outs.
12. The Jays lost, but had Adam Lind back in their lineup.
13. Chris Volstad's winless streak continues.
14. Dillon Gee is 6-0, after his latest win.
15. The Reds coughed up a big lead, Tom Groeschen writes.
16. J.D. Drew ended a crazy game for the Red Sox.
17. The Indians lost again to the Rangers, Dennis Manoloff writes, and along the way Vinnie Pestano left the game with back tightness. Not good.
18. Mike Quade had a warning for his pitcher, before Pujols' walk-off homer. This obscured the fact Randy Wells threw well, Paul Sullivan writes.
19. Yovani Gallardo overcame obstacles to win.
20. Ben Revere has helped to keep a good thing going for the Twins.
Venters' numbers tell one side of the story: The guy has allowed two runs in 35⅔ innings. He's pitched 118⅔ innings in the majors and surrendered just one home run. He has struck out 35 batters in 35⅔ innings -- which means he's getting a lot of swings and misses -- and yet is averaging a Halladay-like 13.4 pitches per inning.
But another side of the story of his dominance is told by hitters, like Joey Votto, who made a weak out against Venters last year and then, on his way back to the dugout, veered past the pitcher's mound. "You're not fun to face," Votto said to Venters.
The left-hander grinned as he told this story. His teammates really love Venters for how he carries himself, with total humility and appreciation for what he's doing. "He strikes out the side and he comes off the mound like he can't believe it," said one of the veterans around him.
Venters was initially summoned from the minors last year with the thought that he could match up well against left-handers, but as Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez noted, it really doesn't matter whether you bring him in against left-handers or right-handers … or against the middle of the order or against pinch-hitters. He has completely overpowered everybody.
It doesn't matter to Venters, either, when he pitches. Gonzalez and pitching coach Roger McDowell summoned Venters and closer Craig Kimbrel into a meeting recently and told both of them that there might be days when Venters gets the call to finish a game, rather than Kimbrel. This isn't because of any dissatisfaction with Kimbrel, but because Gonzalez believes that there might be a day when Kimbrel could use a break, and because he figures it's not a bad thing for Venters and the Braves for him to experience the ninth-inning ledge.
Venters kind of shrugged when asked about this, and grinned again. "I don't think either one of us cares about what role we're in," he said, referring to Kimbrel. "For Craig and I, I think the simpler, the better."
Nobody really has a strong theory about why Venters' two-seam fastball moves so violently. Venters started throwing a two-seamer in Triple-A, with the same grip as everybody else, and had some good results. But once he got to big leagues, he noticed that the balls were different -- harder on their surface -- and he liked the adrenaline of coming into a game out of the bullpen. All of a sudden, his two-seamer began developing a reputation as a worthy heir to Mariano Rivera's cutter as the most dominant pitch in the majors.
Opposing hitters are batting .140 against Venters this year and they have a slugging percentage of .167; they have an OPS of .395. They're batting .087 with runners in scoring position, with 10 strikeouts in 23 at-bats and no extra-base hits.
He has faced 34 hitters when working with zero days of rest -- he's worked more innings than any reliever in the majors -- and in those at-bats, he's allowed one hit. That's an .029 batting average, which is impossibly good. "I feel better when I'm throwing more," Venters said. "I feel like I can stay in rhythm."
If there is a kryptonite for Venters, nobody has found it yet.
• Our colleague Orel Hershiser is joining the Steve Garvey group that is looking into the possibility of purchasing sports franchises. I asked Orel if he intended to pursue a possible purchase of the Dodgers, and he said, "The Dodgers are not for sale; I wish them the best."
He also said, "The city of Los Angeles and Dodger fans deserve the best."
This is now called the Garvey-Hershiser Group, Jill Painter writes.
• Last week, Jason Heyward got another MRI that indicated that his shoulder has no structural damage. He has been receiving deep-massage treatment this week, which is apparently helping; he could soon be on his way back.
His teammates want him back as soon as possible, and feel they need him. There is a distinct feeling, in being around the Braves' players, that they want Heyward to grind his way through his discomfort, to get back on the field and play, even if he's not completely 100 percent healthy. They want him to focus on making the necessary adjustments to the way opposing pitchers have attacked him in 2011 -- pounding him with fastballs inside -- and work through his early-season slump. They've seen the impact that he can have in the 187 games he has played.
• Wrote here earlier this week about the interesting quandary of the Seattle Mariners, given the success of Michael Pineda and the fact he's never thrown more than 139⅓ innings in any season. The Texas Rangers have a similar situation with Alexi Ogando -- but under completely different parameters. Ogando is among the early Cy Young candidates in the American League, but he's never pitched a full season as a starter in the majors or the minors, or in the Dominican Republic, where he transitioned from being an outfielder to a relief pitcher.
Ogando is 27 years old, with a body that has filled out. When he was in the Dominican -- working under the tutelage of Jose Jaimes, Pablo Blanco and John Burgos -- he had limited innings, under less stressful competition. "So this is basically new to him and us, as far as any innings limit," Rangers GM Jon Daniels wrote in an email. "He's such a unique guy -- in his delivery, his background, body type, the whole deal -- no real comparables. We're monitoring him, in much the same way we did with C.J. [Wilson] last year. The staff will back off when it can, or if he needs a breather, but we don't have a set number of innings we're aiming for. When he had a blister last month, we skipped a start. He probably could have thrown through it, but we played it safe, thinking that in addition to his finger, the extra time between outings might be beneficial in big picture."
Ron Washington wants Ogando in the All-Star Game, writes Evan Grant.
It's worth repeating: The Rangers have a lot of room for growth. Derek Holland was outstanding on Saturday.
• Jose Reyes hit a bases-loaded triple to key the Mets' 5-0 win over Atlanta on Saturday. Triples have not been a rare occurrence for Reyes thus far in 2011. FROM ELIAS:
[h4]10-plus Triples Through June 4[/h4]
Live Ball Era (since 1920)
| '11 | Jose Reyes | 10 |
| '85 | Willie Wilson | 10 |
| '26 | Lou Gehrig | 10 |
| '26 | Glenn Wright | 10 |
| '21 | Ty Cobb | 10 |
The Pirates have a number of candidates for the No. 1 pick, writes Bill Brink, although within the industry the betting is very heavy that they will take Gerrit Cole.
Anthony Rendon could be the second pick in the draft, writes Larry Stone.
The Royals will have options with the No. 5 pick in the draft, writes Bob Dutton.
The draft will provide an opportunity for the Phillies to restock their farm system, writes Bob Brookover.
The Astros could be focusing on high schoolers, writes Zachary Levine.
The Rangers might be passing on a local kid.
• Albert Pujols mashed a couple of homers on Saturday, in what has been a really nice week for him. His numbers the past seven days:
Average: .370
Homers: 4
RBIs: 9
Slugging percentage: .889
OPS: 1.358
More on Pujols, from ESPN Stats & Info: Pujols had his 41st career multi-HR game on Saturday, including his ninth career walk-off. Both of Pujols' home runs came on pitches out of the strike zone. He's only the second player this season (Juan Miranda being the other) to have a multi-HR game on pitches out of the zone. The home runs were Pujols' fourth and fifth of the season on pitches out of the zone, eclipsing his total of four all of last season and pushing him into the MLB lead.
[h4]Albert Pujols, 2011 Season[/h4]
AB Ending On Pitches Out of the Zone
| BA | .306 | 3 |
| HR | 5 | 1 |
| Slug pct | .565 | 1 |
| >>min 150 PA |
If Pujols is back to his old self, this is bad news for the NL Central, writes Bernie Miklasz.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Evan Longoria left Saturday's game with tightness in his side, Marc Topkin writes.
2. Denard Span sat out a game because of soreness that stems from a slide at the plate. Span looked at the replay and indicated that he wished he had plowed into Brayan Pena, rather than sliding.
3. When Jordan Schafer walked into the Atlanta clubhouse late Saturday afternoon, the condition of his face was something of a shock. After seeing him bunt the ball into his own left cheekbone on Friday night, you would've thought his whole eye would've been blackened -- but that wasn't the case at all. He had some swelling and discomfort, after suffering a non-displaced fracture of his sinus, but he indicated he'd be available to pinch-run in Saturday's game, and that he hoped to be in the lineup Sunday night. We'll see. His injury isn't considered to be serious, Carroll Rogers writes.
4. Clay Buchholz's back trouble may push back his next start.
5. Brandon Belt wound up on the disabled list, on a day when the Giants lost; he has a hairline fracture in his wrist after getting hit by a pitch in St. Louis the other day.
6. Matt Kemp sparked a rally.
7. Rafael Furcal landed on the disabled list again; he refuses to mention the word retire, writes Dylan Hernandez.
8. Hanley Ramirez is likely headed to the DL on Monday.
9. Paul Konerko's sore wrist is keeping him out of the lineup.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Rays dropped Andy Sonnanstine from their rotation, and installed Alex Cobb.
2. Edinson Volquez is getting the ball again for the Reds on Tuesday.
[h3]Saturday's games[/h3]1. CC Sabathia has seven wins this season, after shutting down the Angels on Saturday, and he continues to march steadily toward 200 career victories; he's got 164 career wins at age 30, and has the athleticism and the durability to take a run at 300 career wins.
How Sabathia won, from ESPN Stats & Info:
A) Efficiency … to a lot of hitters. Sabathia faced 37 Angels hitters in his 8⅔ innings but needed only 107 pitches to get through them (2.9 pitches/PA). The 37 plate appearances is tied for tops for any pitcher this year (Jair Jurrjens faced 37 Padres on April 26). There have been three games this season when a hurler has thrown at least 100 pitches and his pitch/PA was less than 3.0 and Sabathia owns two of them (Ricky Romero has the other).
B) He started strong, in innings. Of the nine batters he faced to start innings, he retired eight. Of the 37 batters he faced, only three saw a 2-0 count.
C) He generated good results with non-fastballs. Sabathia split up his fastball/non-fastball numbers evenly (55 fastballs, 52 not) but he had a lot more success with the slower stuff. The Angels were 2-for-18 (.111) on at-bats ending with non-fastballs.
Sabathia has pitched his fourth straight start of at least eight innings, with his 8⅔ IP on Saturday against the Angels. In the past 15 years, the only Yankees pitcher with a longer streak was David Cone, who had five straight in 1998.
2. The Diamondbacks are beginning to develop a nice internal competition, and Joe Saunders -- who has struggled for some of this season -- had a really nice outing. From Stats & Info, how he won:
A) The changeup. Saunders threw 33 changeups and the Nats were 1-for-10 (.100) with a strikeout in at-bats ending on the pitch. The 33 changeups are the most Saunders has thrown in a game since 2009 -- his previous high was 27.
B) He worked outside. Saunders threw 42 of his 93 pitches "outside." Nationals hitters were 1-for-12 (.083) with three strikeouts on at-bats ending on such pitches.
C) He had good control. Of the 26 batters Saunders faced, only four saw a three-ball count (15 percent; league average, 20 percent).
3. Jeremy Hellickson was dominant, on a day when the Rays really needed it.
4. Justin Verlander hoisted the Tigers.
5. Charlie Morton shut down the Phillies, making a knee-buckling pitch along the way.
6. Livan Hernandez was a hard-luck loser.
7. Oakland lost its fifth straight, to Boston, Joe Stiglich writes.
8. A-Rod provided the difference-maker against the Angels, Mike DiGiovanna writes. Alex Rodriguez now ranks ninth all-time in RBIs, with 1,864, and he's got 623 homers.
9. The Padres won again in Petco, for the second straight game, Bill Center writes.
10. The Phillies' hitting woes continue: They lost to the Pirates, again, mustering just three runs.
11. The Braves gave away outs.
12. The Jays lost, but had Adam Lind back in their lineup.
13. Chris Volstad's winless streak continues.
14. Dillon Gee is 6-0, after his latest win.
15. The Reds coughed up a big lead, Tom Groeschen writes.
16. J.D. Drew ended a crazy game for the Red Sox.
17. The Indians lost again to the Rangers, Dennis Manoloff writes, and along the way Vinnie Pestano left the game with back tightness. Not good.
18. Mike Quade had a warning for his pitcher, before Pujols' walk-off homer. This obscured the fact Randy Wells threw well, Paul Sullivan writes.
19. Yovani Gallardo overcame obstacles to win.
20. Ben Revere has helped to keep a good thing going for the Twins.
Eight teams that need to draft well.
Draft Top 100.
Spoiler [+]
Some clubs always have to draft well to stay in contention, as they build their 25-man rosters with a strong mix of in-house talent. The Tampa Bay Rays are the perfect example of such an organization, and the Florida Marlins, Minnesota Twins, Kansas City Royals and Colorado Rockies also fall into that category.
There are some clubs, however, that may need to get production out of this year's draft class for various reasons, despite having money to spend on free agents to cover holes not filled with homegrown talent.
[h3]New York Mets[/h3]
It's critical to their future success for the Mets to start producing more talent from within and that starts with the draft. Their financial status may improve soon once the new investor becomes an official minority owner, but as pricey veterans are shipped out, the organization may not have the impact players to replace them going forward.
This is the consequence of lackluster draft results during the Rudy Terrasas era, which dropped the club to the No. 26 ranking in Keith Law's organizational farm system rankings over the winter. To avoid another free-agent spending spree, new scouting director Chad McDonald must add impact players to the system and with a deep draft class at hand, there are no excuses for failure. A solid draft will greatly help the Mets' chances to sustain contention.
[h3]New York Yankees[/h3]
Despite spending more money on the big league payroll than any other franchise in team sports history, the Yankees have found that when their money isn't enough to lure what they need, it'd be nice to have options filtering throughout the organization.
The Yankees surprisingly have as poor a track record in the first round as any team in the entire league, producing just two players -- Derek Jeter in 1992 and Phil Hughes in 2004 -- that have made an impact. Granted, many of those first-round picks have been in the 20s or later due to the Yankees successes in the '70s, '90s and the past decade, but the paucity of strong drafts may be catching up with the Yankees.
The '90s run started with homegrown talent and while the Latin scene is certainly a strong front -- Jesus Montero, Robinson Cano and Manny Banuelos, to name the top three -- getting major league players from the draft has to become more of a priority, especially as the Yankees begin to age. Plus, if they want to spend money, drafted prospects will gladly accept their checks, unlike Cliff Lee last winter.
[h3]Los Angeles Dodgers[/h3]
Not unlike the Mets -- and perhaps much, much worse -- the Dodgers could be in a tough financial state for a year or more, potentially limiting their ability to sign free agents and make trades that add payroll. If the ownership problems linger, the draft may be the best way the organization can add impact players, and when the Dodgers were at their best, they built their winning teams with a good percentage of their own cultivations.
Logan White and Ned Colletti are in a tough situation, however, as they may not be allowed by MLB to go over slot, which abbreviates the damage they can do in this year's draft.
[h3]Toronto Blue Jays[/h3]
The Jays find themselves in a similar category as the Rays, Royals, Twins and Rockies -- having to draft well because they can't keep up with their rivals on the free-agent front.
But the Jays are a mid-market club in terms of payroll and if they want to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox in the AL East, they have to beat them in the draft. This year the Jays have extra picks, and will need to use them wisely if they want to gain ground in the standings in the next few years.
[h3]Chicago Cubs[/h3]
The Cubs went for signability last June and haven't fared well early in drafts under Tim Wilken, at least not yet. Brett Jackson has a chance to make an impact, as does Andrew Cashner, but the club's current 40-man roster consists of just seven players drafted by the club, and only one, catcher Geovany Soto, has made an All-Star team.
With strong organizations at the top of their division in the St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds, the Cubs have to find a way to add high-quality players to their organization without trading away young talent in order to get it, as they did last winter in acquiring Matt Garza. They've done well on the international market -- Carlos Marmol, Carlos Zambrano, Starlin Castro -- but the draft has been a fairly empty cupboard and has left their farm system in the bottom half of the league.
[h3]Houston Astros[/h3]
The Astros have had a little luck on the international market to help build their farm system, but if they aren't going to add more young talent when they trade proven veterans (than what they did when they sent Roy Oswalt to Philadelphia), they may find themselves looking up at Pittsburgh in the NL Central for the foreseeable future.
Scouting director Bobby Heck has found some good value in the draft of late, including right-hander Jordan Lyles and three solid picks from a year ago, but the Astros appear to be several players from competing and have to continue to stockpile the farm system in hopes that a few of their choices develop into superstar players. With the recent departure of Lance Berkman and Oswalt, Houston doesn't have one on its roster.
The new ownership could change the way the organization approaches free agency, but it's difficult to imagine the draft becoming less critical for the Astros right now.
[h3]Milwaukee Brewers[/h3]
The Brewers' trek to the bottom of baseball in terms of farm systems isn't simply due to poor drafting, as they sent out prospects to land some proven pitching last winter. The Brewers may soon find themselves in need of in-house help as Prince Fielder hits free agency and the contracts of Ryan Braun and Rickie Weeks kick in to swallow up a higher percentage of their available payroll.
Adding a pair of future big leaguers in Round 1 this year -- they have two top-15 picks -- could be a major coup as they look to start replenish the system that lost, among others, their two top pitching prospects and their No. 1 overall prospect, Brett Lawrie, in the deals to add Shaun Marcum and Zack Greinke. In lieu of spending big money down the line, the Brewers should aim for another run of homegrown players that gave them Braun, Fielder, Weeks, Corey Hart and ace right-hander Yovani Gallardo.
[h3]Chicago White Sox[/h3]
The White Sox may currently overtake the Brewers for the worst farm system in the game since two of their best prospects -- left-hander Chris Sale and third baseman Brent Morel -- have graduated to the big leagues and no longer qualify. Add an injury to Jared Mitchell into the equation and the White Sox could really use a major haul of quality talent out of this year's draft.
Unfortunately, the Sox do not select until the sandwich round at No. 47 overall, but could choose to spend well over slot money on a talent who falls to make up for the lack of a first-round pick (lost to the Washington Nationals for signing Adam Dunn this past winter).
The White Sox have no glaring holes on their roster, but some of their higher-priced players aren't performing, which could serve as a bit of a lesson learned. Be more like the Rays and Marlins -- produce an Evan Longoria, Mike Stanton or Logan Morrison every few years, and Dunn and his bloated contract won't be necessary. And since the Sox spend too much cash annually to rebuild for a year, nailing the draft is that much more crucial.
There are some clubs, however, that may need to get production out of this year's draft class for various reasons, despite having money to spend on free agents to cover holes not filled with homegrown talent.
[h3]New York Mets[/h3]
It's critical to their future success for the Mets to start producing more talent from within and that starts with the draft. Their financial status may improve soon once the new investor becomes an official minority owner, but as pricey veterans are shipped out, the organization may not have the impact players to replace them going forward.
This is the consequence of lackluster draft results during the Rudy Terrasas era, which dropped the club to the No. 26 ranking in Keith Law's organizational farm system rankings over the winter. To avoid another free-agent spending spree, new scouting director Chad McDonald must add impact players to the system and with a deep draft class at hand, there are no excuses for failure. A solid draft will greatly help the Mets' chances to sustain contention.
[h3]New York Yankees[/h3]
Despite spending more money on the big league payroll than any other franchise in team sports history, the Yankees have found that when their money isn't enough to lure what they need, it'd be nice to have options filtering throughout the organization.
The Yankees surprisingly have as poor a track record in the first round as any team in the entire league, producing just two players -- Derek Jeter in 1992 and Phil Hughes in 2004 -- that have made an impact. Granted, many of those first-round picks have been in the 20s or later due to the Yankees successes in the '70s, '90s and the past decade, but the paucity of strong drafts may be catching up with the Yankees.
The '90s run started with homegrown talent and while the Latin scene is certainly a strong front -- Jesus Montero, Robinson Cano and Manny Banuelos, to name the top three -- getting major league players from the draft has to become more of a priority, especially as the Yankees begin to age. Plus, if they want to spend money, drafted prospects will gladly accept their checks, unlike Cliff Lee last winter.
[h3]Los Angeles Dodgers[/h3]
Not unlike the Mets -- and perhaps much, much worse -- the Dodgers could be in a tough financial state for a year or more, potentially limiting their ability to sign free agents and make trades that add payroll. If the ownership problems linger, the draft may be the best way the organization can add impact players, and when the Dodgers were at their best, they built their winning teams with a good percentage of their own cultivations.
Logan White and Ned Colletti are in a tough situation, however, as they may not be allowed by MLB to go over slot, which abbreviates the damage they can do in this year's draft.
[h3]Toronto Blue Jays[/h3]
The Jays find themselves in a similar category as the Rays, Royals, Twins and Rockies -- having to draft well because they can't keep up with their rivals on the free-agent front.
But the Jays are a mid-market club in terms of payroll and if they want to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox in the AL East, they have to beat them in the draft. This year the Jays have extra picks, and will need to use them wisely if they want to gain ground in the standings in the next few years.
[h3]Chicago Cubs[/h3]
The Cubs went for signability last June and haven't fared well early in drafts under Tim Wilken, at least not yet. Brett Jackson has a chance to make an impact, as does Andrew Cashner, but the club's current 40-man roster consists of just seven players drafted by the club, and only one, catcher Geovany Soto, has made an All-Star team.
With strong organizations at the top of their division in the St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds, the Cubs have to find a way to add high-quality players to their organization without trading away young talent in order to get it, as they did last winter in acquiring Matt Garza. They've done well on the international market -- Carlos Marmol, Carlos Zambrano, Starlin Castro -- but the draft has been a fairly empty cupboard and has left their farm system in the bottom half of the league.
[h3]Houston Astros[/h3]
The Astros have had a little luck on the international market to help build their farm system, but if they aren't going to add more young talent when they trade proven veterans (than what they did when they sent Roy Oswalt to Philadelphia), they may find themselves looking up at Pittsburgh in the NL Central for the foreseeable future.
Scouting director Bobby Heck has found some good value in the draft of late, including right-hander Jordan Lyles and three solid picks from a year ago, but the Astros appear to be several players from competing and have to continue to stockpile the farm system in hopes that a few of their choices develop into superstar players. With the recent departure of Lance Berkman and Oswalt, Houston doesn't have one on its roster.
The new ownership could change the way the organization approaches free agency, but it's difficult to imagine the draft becoming less critical for the Astros right now.
[h3]Milwaukee Brewers[/h3]
The Brewers' trek to the bottom of baseball in terms of farm systems isn't simply due to poor drafting, as they sent out prospects to land some proven pitching last winter. The Brewers may soon find themselves in need of in-house help as Prince Fielder hits free agency and the contracts of Ryan Braun and Rickie Weeks kick in to swallow up a higher percentage of their available payroll.
Adding a pair of future big leaguers in Round 1 this year -- they have two top-15 picks -- could be a major coup as they look to start replenish the system that lost, among others, their two top pitching prospects and their No. 1 overall prospect, Brett Lawrie, in the deals to add Shaun Marcum and Zack Greinke. In lieu of spending big money down the line, the Brewers should aim for another run of homegrown players that gave them Braun, Fielder, Weeks, Corey Hart and ace right-hander Yovani Gallardo.
[h3]Chicago White Sox[/h3]
The White Sox may currently overtake the Brewers for the worst farm system in the game since two of their best prospects -- left-hander Chris Sale and third baseman Brent Morel -- have graduated to the big leagues and no longer qualify. Add an injury to Jared Mitchell into the equation and the White Sox could really use a major haul of quality talent out of this year's draft.
Unfortunately, the Sox do not select until the sandwich round at No. 47 overall, but could choose to spend well over slot money on a talent who falls to make up for the lack of a first-round pick (lost to the Washington Nationals for signing Adam Dunn this past winter).
The White Sox have no glaring holes on their roster, but some of their higher-priced players aren't performing, which could serve as a bit of a lesson learned. Be more like the Rays and Marlins -- produce an Evan Longoria, Mike Stanton or Logan Morrison every few years, and Dunn and his bloated contract won't be necessary. And since the Sox spend too much cash annually to rebuild for a year, nailing the draft is that much more crucial.
Draft Top 100.
Spoiler [+]
This is the final top 100 update for this year's Rule 4 draft. The top four remain unchanged but I've moved a lot of guys around based on recent reports, more conversations with scouts, a few games I saw recently and a fair amount of video I've received from contacts in the game.
This is my ranking of these players, roughly the order in which I would take them if signability was not a factor. This is not, however, a projection of where these players will be selected. The most recent projection went up on Friday, June 3, and I'll post one more on Monday morning before the draft begins.
Gerrit Cole
RHP
6-4
220
Analysis: His fastball grades out as an 80 on the 20-80 scouting scale, and his change grades as a 70. He also has an above-average slider and a good delivery, but he needs a different pitching plan. He's a potential No. 1 starter. Previous Rankings: 3 | 1 | 1 | 1
Anthony Rendon
3B
6-0
190
Analysis: Tough spring with sore shoulder limiting him, but plus bat speed and plus defender at third is a rare combo. Previous Rankings: 1 | 2 | 2 | 2
Bubba Starling
CF
6-5
195
Analysis: Best all-around athlete in the draft, five-tool centerfielder with explosiveness in every facet of the game. Previous Rankings: 4 | 3 | 3 | 3
Dylan Bundy
RHP
6-1
205
Analysis: One of the top high school pitchers in recent memory, maybe the best since Beckett, up to 99 with an insane work ethic, a knockout cutter and makeup that scouts love. Previous Rankings: 13 | 6 | 4 | 4
Archie Bradley
RHP
6-3
215
Analysis: Two-sport commit to Oklahoma, but his future is on a mound, where he's up to 98 with the draft's best curveball. Previous Rankings: 9 | 13 | 10 | 10
Trevor Bauer
RHP
6-2
185
Analysis: There are questions, but he's the best-performing pitcher in Division I this year with three above-average pitches and plenty of durability. Previous Rankings: 25 | 27 | 12 | 7
Danny Hultzen
LHP
6-3
200
Analysis: Extremely polished college lefty; very safe pick but lacks the ceiling of some other arms in this group. Previous Rankings: 19 | 4 | 5 | 5
Taylor Jungmann
RHP
6-6
220
Analysis: Fastball isn't plus but the control is and the breaking ball is, and he has so little effort that there may be more velocity in the body. Previous Rankings: 11 | 11 | 7 | 8
Alex Meyer
RHP
6-9
220
Analysis: Could rival Cole for the best pure stuff in the college ranks but control and command have improved just to fringe-average. Previous Rankings: 23 | 23 | 13 | 6
Matt Barnes
RHP
6-4
203
Analysis: Big, easy arm strength, flashing an above-average or better curveball, but the delivery isn't clean and the third pitch is a work in progress. Previous Rankings: 6 | 14 | 14 | 9
Taylor Guerrieri
RHP
6-3
180
Analysis: Ridiculous fastball/breaking ball combination, but off-field questions and a late-season fade have dimmed his star slightly. Previous Rankings: 48 | 7 | 8 | 11
Sonny Gray
RHP
5-11
180
Analysis: Changed the grip on his changeup recently to give him a third weapon behind the plus fastball and plus curveball, but will he stay a starter at 5-foot-10? Previous Rankings: 5 | 5 | 6 | 14
Francisco Lindor
SS
5-11
170
Analysis: Best pure shortstop in the draft with the ability to hit from both sides. Previous Rankings: 8 | 8 | 9 | 12
Mikie Mahtook
OF
6-1
192
Analysis: Five tools, not all plus but all present, in a true centerfielder who plays like his hair's on fire. Previous Rankings: 38 | 16 | 16 | 15
Josh Bell
OF
6-3
190
Analysis: In some minds, the draft's best pure bat, with a good approach to go with incredible hand acceleration, but he'll move to left field in pro ball and is a strong commit to the University of Texas. Previous Rankings: 22 | 21 | 21 | 21
George Springer
OF
6-3
220
Analysis: Best tools among college position players, but approach and swing mechanics questions dropped him out of my preseason top five. Previous Rankings: 2 | 25 | 20 | 16
Jed Bradley
LHP
6-4
224
Analysis: Looks the part as a big lefty with arm strength and some feel for a changeup, but lack of a breaking ball hurts him in a deep pitching crop. Previous Rankings: 12 | 10 | 11 | 13
Dillon Howard
RHP
6-2
200
Analysis: Projectable, high-ceiling high school arm; a little on the raw side but with plenty of upside. Previous Rankings: 14 | 18 | 18 | 18
Blake Swihart
C
6-1
175
Analysis: Approach hasn't been great and he's played multiple positions this spring, but I still like him as a switch-hitting offensive catcher with good athleticism behind the dish. Previous Rankings: 10 | 9 | 15 | 17
Cory Spangenberg
SS
6-0
184
Analysis: Plus runner with a pretty left-handed swing; very signable after transfering from VMI last fall. Previous Rankings: 50 | 44 | 23 | 23
Javier Baez
SS
6-1
205
Analysis: Explosive bat with big, raw power potential who could stay at shortstop but probably moves to third base. Previous Rankings: NR | 33 | 25 | 20
Levi Michael
SS
5-10
180
Analysis: Best college shortstop, a switch-hitter who can fly and is just 20 years old as a true junior. Previous Rankings: 26 | 22 | 22 | 22
Joe Ross
RHP
6-2
180
Analysis: Tyson's brother is more athletic, more projectable, and has a much cleaner arm action, giving him a far better chance to hold up as a starter. Previous Rankings: 41 | 29 | 26 | 25
Anthony Meo
RHP
6-2
185
Analysis: Big two-pitch combination with a good delivery, but hasn't shown the third average or better pitch to remain a starter yet. Previous Rankings: 35 | 19 | 19 | 19
Brian Goodwin
CF
6-1
190
Analysis: Former UNC standout has four tools with the potential to add power down the road and bounced back after a slow start this year in junior college. Previous Rankings: 17 | 40 | 27 | 26
[h4]NO. 26-100[/h4]
[th=""]RANK[/th][th=""]NAME[/th][th=""]POS[/th][th=""]SCHOOL[/th]
What's wrong with RA Dickey.
The underrated Alexei Ramirez.
Jonny Venter's season.
This is my ranking of these players, roughly the order in which I would take them if signability was not a factor. This is not, however, a projection of where these players will be selected. The most recent projection went up on Friday, June 3, and I'll post one more on Monday morning before the draft begins.
Gerrit Cole
RHP
6-4
220
Analysis: His fastball grades out as an 80 on the 20-80 scouting scale, and his change grades as a 70. He also has an above-average slider and a good delivery, but he needs a different pitching plan. He's a potential No. 1 starter. Previous Rankings: 3 | 1 | 1 | 1
Anthony Rendon
3B
6-0
190
Analysis: Tough spring with sore shoulder limiting him, but plus bat speed and plus defender at third is a rare combo. Previous Rankings: 1 | 2 | 2 | 2
Bubba Starling
CF
6-5
195
Analysis: Best all-around athlete in the draft, five-tool centerfielder with explosiveness in every facet of the game. Previous Rankings: 4 | 3 | 3 | 3
Dylan Bundy
RHP
6-1
205
Analysis: One of the top high school pitchers in recent memory, maybe the best since Beckett, up to 99 with an insane work ethic, a knockout cutter and makeup that scouts love. Previous Rankings: 13 | 6 | 4 | 4
Archie Bradley
RHP
6-3
215
Analysis: Two-sport commit to Oklahoma, but his future is on a mound, where he's up to 98 with the draft's best curveball. Previous Rankings: 9 | 13 | 10 | 10
Trevor Bauer
RHP
6-2
185
Analysis: There are questions, but he's the best-performing pitcher in Division I this year with three above-average pitches and plenty of durability. Previous Rankings: 25 | 27 | 12 | 7
Danny Hultzen
LHP
6-3
200
Analysis: Extremely polished college lefty; very safe pick but lacks the ceiling of some other arms in this group. Previous Rankings: 19 | 4 | 5 | 5
Taylor Jungmann
RHP
6-6
220
Analysis: Fastball isn't plus but the control is and the breaking ball is, and he has so little effort that there may be more velocity in the body. Previous Rankings: 11 | 11 | 7 | 8
Alex Meyer
RHP
6-9
220
Analysis: Could rival Cole for the best pure stuff in the college ranks but control and command have improved just to fringe-average. Previous Rankings: 23 | 23 | 13 | 6
Matt Barnes
RHP
6-4
203
Analysis: Big, easy arm strength, flashing an above-average or better curveball, but the delivery isn't clean and the third pitch is a work in progress. Previous Rankings: 6 | 14 | 14 | 9
Taylor Guerrieri
RHP
6-3
180
Analysis: Ridiculous fastball/breaking ball combination, but off-field questions and a late-season fade have dimmed his star slightly. Previous Rankings: 48 | 7 | 8 | 11
Sonny Gray
RHP
5-11
180
Analysis: Changed the grip on his changeup recently to give him a third weapon behind the plus fastball and plus curveball, but will he stay a starter at 5-foot-10? Previous Rankings: 5 | 5 | 6 | 14
Francisco Lindor
SS
5-11
170
Analysis: Best pure shortstop in the draft with the ability to hit from both sides. Previous Rankings: 8 | 8 | 9 | 12
Mikie Mahtook
OF
6-1
192
Analysis: Five tools, not all plus but all present, in a true centerfielder who plays like his hair's on fire. Previous Rankings: 38 | 16 | 16 | 15
Josh Bell
OF
6-3
190
Analysis: In some minds, the draft's best pure bat, with a good approach to go with incredible hand acceleration, but he'll move to left field in pro ball and is a strong commit to the University of Texas. Previous Rankings: 22 | 21 | 21 | 21
George Springer
OF
6-3
220
Analysis: Best tools among college position players, but approach and swing mechanics questions dropped him out of my preseason top five. Previous Rankings: 2 | 25 | 20 | 16
Jed Bradley
LHP
6-4
224
Analysis: Looks the part as a big lefty with arm strength and some feel for a changeup, but lack of a breaking ball hurts him in a deep pitching crop. Previous Rankings: 12 | 10 | 11 | 13
Dillon Howard
RHP
6-2
200
Analysis: Projectable, high-ceiling high school arm; a little on the raw side but with plenty of upside. Previous Rankings: 14 | 18 | 18 | 18
Blake Swihart
C
6-1
175
Analysis: Approach hasn't been great and he's played multiple positions this spring, but I still like him as a switch-hitting offensive catcher with good athleticism behind the dish. Previous Rankings: 10 | 9 | 15 | 17
Cory Spangenberg
SS
6-0
184
Analysis: Plus runner with a pretty left-handed swing; very signable after transfering from VMI last fall. Previous Rankings: 50 | 44 | 23 | 23
Javier Baez
SS
6-1
205
Analysis: Explosive bat with big, raw power potential who could stay at shortstop but probably moves to third base. Previous Rankings: NR | 33 | 25 | 20
Levi Michael
SS
5-10
180
Analysis: Best college shortstop, a switch-hitter who can fly and is just 20 years old as a true junior. Previous Rankings: 26 | 22 | 22 | 22
Joe Ross
RHP
6-2
180
Analysis: Tyson's brother is more athletic, more projectable, and has a much cleaner arm action, giving him a far better chance to hold up as a starter. Previous Rankings: 41 | 29 | 26 | 25
Anthony Meo
RHP
6-2
185
Analysis: Big two-pitch combination with a good delivery, but hasn't shown the third average or better pitch to remain a starter yet. Previous Rankings: 35 | 19 | 19 | 19
Brian Goodwin
CF
6-1
190
Analysis: Former UNC standout has four tools with the potential to add power down the road and bounced back after a slow start this year in junior college. Previous Rankings: 17 | 40 | 27 | 26
[h4]NO. 26-100[/h4]
| 26 | Jose Fernandez | RHP | Alonso High School |
| 27 | Andrew Susac | c | Oregon State |
| 28 | Jackie Bradley Jr. | cf | South Carolina |
| 29 | Robert Stephenson | RHP | Alhambra (Calif.) HS |
| 30 | Tyler Beede | rhp | Lawrence Academy (Groton, Mass.) |
| 31 | Austin Hedges | c | JSerra Catholic (Capistrano, Calif.) |
| 32 | Tyler Goeddel | OF | Saint Francis HS (Mountain View, Calif.) |
| 33 | Brandon Nimmo | RF | East HS (Cheyenne, Wyo.) |
| 34 | Henry Owens | LHP | Edison HS (Huntington Beach, Calif.) |
| 35 | Daniel Norris | LHP | Science Hill HS (Johnson City, Tenn.) |
| 36 | Travis Harrison | 3b | Tustin (Calif.) HS |
| 37 | Alex Dickerson | of | Indiana |
| 38 | Charles Tilson | OF | New Trier (Ill.)High |
| 39 | Nick Delmonico | c/3b | Farragut HS (Knoxville, Tenn.) |
| 40 | Hudson Boyd | rhp | Bishop Verot HS (Fort Myers, Fla.) |
| 41 | Kevin Comer | rhp | Seneca HS (Vincetown, N.J.) |
| 42 | Michael Kelly | rhp | West Boca Raton (Fla.) HS |
| 43 | Kyle Winkler | rhp | TCU |
| 44 | Johnny Eierman | of | Warsaw (Mo.) HS |
| 45 | C.J. Cron | 1b | Utah |
| 46 | Grayson Garvin | lhp | Vanderbilt |
| 47 | Andrew Chafin | lhp | Kent State |
| 48 | Chris Reed | lhp | Stanford |
| 49 | Josh Osich | lhp | Oregon State |
| 50 | Erik Johnson | rhp | Cal |
| 51 | Tyler Anderson | lhp | Oregon |
| 52 | Nick Maronde | rhp | Florida |
| 53 | Brandon Martin | ss | Corona (CA) Santiago HS |
| 54 | Jason Esposito | 3b | Vanderbilt |
| 55 | Philip Evans | ss | La Costa HS (Carlsbad, CA) |
| 56 | Jack Armstrong | rhp | Vanderbilt |
| 57 | Larry Greene | of | Berrien County HS (Nashville, GA) |
| 58 | Shawon Dunston Jr. | of | Valley Christian HS (Fremont, CA) |
| 59 | James McCann | c | Arkansas |
| 60 | Pratt Maynard | c | NC State |
| 61 | Senquez Golson | of | Pascagoula (MS) HS |
| 62 | Cody Kukuk | lhp | Free State HS (McLouth, KS) |
| 63 | Carl Thomore | of | East Brunswick (NJ) HS |
| 64 | Granden Goetzeman | SS | Palmetto HS |
| 65 | Derek Fisher | of | Cedar Crest HS (Lebanon, PA) |
| 66 | Dillon Maples | rhp | Pinecrest HS (Southern Pines, N.C.) |
| 67 | Sean Gilmartin | lhp | Florida State |
| 68 | Kyle Crick | rhp | Sherman HS |
| 69 | Brett Austin | C | Providence (Charlotte, N.C.) HS |
| 70 | Blake Snell | lhp | Shorewood HS |
| 71 | Trevor Story | SS | Irving HS |
| 72 | Kevin Cron | C | Mountain Pointe High School |
| 73 | Dwight Smith | OF | McIntosh HS |
| 74 | Tyler Greene | ss | West Boca HS (Boca Raton, Fla.) |
| 75 | Kolten Wong | 2B | Hawaii |
| 76 | Adrian Houser | rhp | Locust Grove (Okla.) HS |
| 77 | Tony Zych | rhp | Louisville |
| 78 | Logan Verrett | RHP | Baylor |
| 79 | J.R. Graham | RHP | Santa Clara |
| 80 | Carter Capps | rhp | Mount Olive College |
| 81 | Ian Gardeck | RHP | Angelina College |
| 82 | James Harris | OF | Oakland Technical HS |
| 83 | John Hicks | C | Virginia |
| 84 | Bryan Brickhouse | rhp | Woodlands HS |
| 85 | Jordan Cote | RHP | Winnisquam |
| 86 | Adam McCreery | LHP | Bonita HS (La Verne, Calif.) |
| 87 | Kes Carter | OF | Western Kentucky |
| 88 | Jacob Anderson | P/1B | Chino HS (Calif.) |
| 89 | Ben Roberts | of | Missoula (Mont.) Sentinel HS |
| 90 | Ryan Wright | 2B | Louisville |
| 91 | Michael Reed | OF | Leander (Texas) HS |
| 92 | Ricky Jacquez | RHP | Franklin HS |
| 93 | Michael Fulmer | rhp | Deer Creek HS |
| 94 | B.A. Vollmuth | 3B | Southern Miss |
| 95 | Joseph Musgrove | rhp | Grossmont HS (Calif.) |
| 96 | David Goforth | rhp | Ole Miss |
| 97 | Williams Jerez | OF | Grand Street Campus (N.Y.) |
| 98 | Joe Panik | SS | St. John's |
| 99 | Kevin Moriarty | rhp | Shorewood HS (Shoreline WA) |
| 100 | Matt Purke | lhp | TCU |
What's wrong with RA Dickey.
Spoiler [+]
It's all too easy to diagnose the Mets' problem this season: Their pitching has been a nightmare. With them sitting in fourth place in the National League East at 27-31, their offense has been passable, ranking 15th in the majors in runs scored despite missing David Wright and Ike Davis for extended periods of time. Meanwhile, their 4.33 team ERA ranks as the third worst in the NL ahead of only the Cubs and Astros. They already have had to use seven different starting pitchers in games, and they have had two starters -- Chris Capuano and Mike Pelfrey -- post ERAs of more than 5.00 while throwing 25 percent of the team's total innings pitched.
This should come as little surprise to Mets fans, as the team entered the season with a very uncertain, risk-filled rotation. But while they expected some pitchers to struggle this year, there's one player the Mets were counting on to bolster the front end of their rotation: R.A. Dickey.
Upon arriving in New York last year, Dickey immediately became a favorite among Mets fans. How could you hate the guy? He's a knuckleballer -- a journeyman pitcher who had never had extended success before in his career. He is well spoken and humble, and his name makes the 11-year-old in each of us smirk. He finished 2010 with a 2.84 ERA in 174 innings pitched, and the Mets rewarded him with a two-year, $7.8 million contract in the offseason. If their rotation was going to be a mess, at least they would have one spot they could feel comfortable about.
Well, so much for that. Dickey has struggled early this season, posting a 4.39 ERA. His walk rate has increased, he's allowing more hits and home runs, and he's not getting batters to swing and miss on pitches quite as often. So what's wrong with him? Was his success last season a mere mirage, or is there reason to believe he will improve going forward? Have no fear, Mets fans -- the Dickey you know and love is only a slight adjustment away.
To understand Dickey's troubles so far this season, it helps to understand his pitch repertoire. Unlike fellow knuckleballer Tim Wakefield, Dickey essentially has three pitches: a slow knuckleball, a fast knuckleball and a sinker. His slow knuckleball ranges around 76 to 79 mph, while his fast knuckler has been known to peak in the mid-to-low 80s. He throws both knuckleballs equally often, although he uses his slow knuckler early in counts and his fast as a knockout pitch, and together they account for around 80 percent of his pitches. The remaining 20 percent of the time, Dickey throws his sinking fastball, which averages around 84 mph -- compared to Wakefield, Dickey throws heat.
This added velocity on his knuckleball causes batters to hit a large number of ground balls; when combined with his sinker, this fast knuckleball gives Dickey a 56 percent ground ball rate -- a very high rate. Ground balls are a very good outcome for a pitcher to get, as they result in hits only around 23 percent of the time and have a very low likelihood of turning into an extra-base hit.
This season, Dickey's pitching repertoire has remained nearly exactly the same as last year. He is still throwing his fast and slow knuckleballs in similar counts and in the same proportion, and his fastball has remained as effective as last year. As such, his problem stems from the one thing that has changed slightly from last season: his knuckleball's movement.
The knuckleball's strength is also its Achilles' heel: It's totally unpredictable. When a pitcher releases a knuckler, he typically aims for the middle of the strike zone, since he has no way of knowing in which direction the pitch will break. But while knuckleball pitchers can't control a knuckler's movement, they can control how much it breaks. Depending on how they release the pitch, they can subtly influence whether the pitch breaks only a handful of inches or if it dances a full foot away from where the pitcher was aiming.
As Dickey has stated in the past, finding the optimal break on a knuckleball is a lot like finding your golf swing: It's more a matter of feel than anything. Make the pitch break too much, and it will end up outside the zone. But if you don't make the pitch break enough, you are essentially leaving the batter a juicy 78 mph fat one over the heart of the plate, begging for him to crush it.
For whatever reason, Dickey's knuckleballs are not dancing as much right now. Last season, the majority of his knuckleballs ended up breaking 10 inches or less; this season, they are breaking around 7 inches or less. On one hand, this is a good thing -- Dickey has thrown around 5 percent more first-pitch strikes this season, and his pitches are finding the zone more often. But if his knuckler doesn't dance enough, it also makes it much easier to hit. Six of his seven home runs allowed have come off knuckleballs, with four of them sitting right over the heart of the plate. And when batters hit a ball in play against Dickey, it's falling for a hit 32 percent of the time, which speaks partly to bad luck and partly to batters hitting the ball hard off him.
Although Dickey's ERA this season is considerably higher than what he posted last season, he's not that far from recapturing his success. While he is unlikely to post another ERA in the 2s, there is no reason he can't continue to be an above-average pitcher for the Mets, eating innings and posting an ERA in the mid-to-high 3s. All he needs to do is rediscover his touch with his knuckleball and get it dancing a little more.
This should come as little surprise to Mets fans, as the team entered the season with a very uncertain, risk-filled rotation. But while they expected some pitchers to struggle this year, there's one player the Mets were counting on to bolster the front end of their rotation: R.A. Dickey.
Upon arriving in New York last year, Dickey immediately became a favorite among Mets fans. How could you hate the guy? He's a knuckleballer -- a journeyman pitcher who had never had extended success before in his career. He is well spoken and humble, and his name makes the 11-year-old in each of us smirk. He finished 2010 with a 2.84 ERA in 174 innings pitched, and the Mets rewarded him with a two-year, $7.8 million contract in the offseason. If their rotation was going to be a mess, at least they would have one spot they could feel comfortable about.
Well, so much for that. Dickey has struggled early this season, posting a 4.39 ERA. His walk rate has increased, he's allowing more hits and home runs, and he's not getting batters to swing and miss on pitches quite as often. So what's wrong with him? Was his success last season a mere mirage, or is there reason to believe he will improve going forward? Have no fear, Mets fans -- the Dickey you know and love is only a slight adjustment away.
To understand Dickey's troubles so far this season, it helps to understand his pitch repertoire. Unlike fellow knuckleballer Tim Wakefield, Dickey essentially has three pitches: a slow knuckleball, a fast knuckleball and a sinker. His slow knuckleball ranges around 76 to 79 mph, while his fast knuckler has been known to peak in the mid-to-low 80s. He throws both knuckleballs equally often, although he uses his slow knuckler early in counts and his fast as a knockout pitch, and together they account for around 80 percent of his pitches. The remaining 20 percent of the time, Dickey throws his sinking fastball, which averages around 84 mph -- compared to Wakefield, Dickey throws heat.
This added velocity on his knuckleball causes batters to hit a large number of ground balls; when combined with his sinker, this fast knuckleball gives Dickey a 56 percent ground ball rate -- a very high rate. Ground balls are a very good outcome for a pitcher to get, as they result in hits only around 23 percent of the time and have a very low likelihood of turning into an extra-base hit.
This season, Dickey's pitching repertoire has remained nearly exactly the same as last year. He is still throwing his fast and slow knuckleballs in similar counts and in the same proportion, and his fastball has remained as effective as last year. As such, his problem stems from the one thing that has changed slightly from last season: his knuckleball's movement.
The knuckleball's strength is also its Achilles' heel: It's totally unpredictable. When a pitcher releases a knuckler, he typically aims for the middle of the strike zone, since he has no way of knowing in which direction the pitch will break. But while knuckleball pitchers can't control a knuckler's movement, they can control how much it breaks. Depending on how they release the pitch, they can subtly influence whether the pitch breaks only a handful of inches or if it dances a full foot away from where the pitcher was aiming.
As Dickey has stated in the past, finding the optimal break on a knuckleball is a lot like finding your golf swing: It's more a matter of feel than anything. Make the pitch break too much, and it will end up outside the zone. But if you don't make the pitch break enough, you are essentially leaving the batter a juicy 78 mph fat one over the heart of the plate, begging for him to crush it.
For whatever reason, Dickey's knuckleballs are not dancing as much right now. Last season, the majority of his knuckleballs ended up breaking 10 inches or less; this season, they are breaking around 7 inches or less. On one hand, this is a good thing -- Dickey has thrown around 5 percent more first-pitch strikes this season, and his pitches are finding the zone more often. But if his knuckler doesn't dance enough, it also makes it much easier to hit. Six of his seven home runs allowed have come off knuckleballs, with four of them sitting right over the heart of the plate. And when batters hit a ball in play against Dickey, it's falling for a hit 32 percent of the time, which speaks partly to bad luck and partly to batters hitting the ball hard off him.
Although Dickey's ERA this season is considerably higher than what he posted last season, he's not that far from recapturing his success. While he is unlikely to post another ERA in the 2s, there is no reason he can't continue to be an above-average pitcher for the Mets, eating innings and posting an ERA in the mid-to-high 3s. All he needs to do is rediscover his touch with his knuckleball and get it dancing a little more.
The underrated Alexei Ramirez.
Spoiler [+]
When it comes to shortstops, the National League is stacked. Troy Tulowitzki is generally accepted to be one of the game's best players, and it was no surprise when he was selected first overall in ESPN's Franchise Player Draft on Wednesday. The NL also boasts Hanley Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins and a revitalized Jose Reyes for those who like guys who can run, and Stephen Drew's production at the position is one of the reasons the Diamondbacks are surprising contenders in the NL West. Toss in 21-year-old Starlin Castro, and there will be some tough decisions to be made when it comes time to pick who will represent the Senior Circuit at the position in next month's All-Star Game.
Over in the American League, however, it's a different story. Derek Jeter is the big name but his skills have eroded to the point that he's barely contributing anymore, and the rest of the teams in the Junior Circuit field shortstops who are mostly anonymous to the national public. However, there's one shortstop in the AL who deserves more recognition than he's received to date and has shown that he's good enough to hang with the big boys at the position.
Alexei Ramirez has quietly become the best player on the White Sox and is perhaps the best-kept secret in all of baseball. How underrated is he? He's not even in the top five in voting at the position for next month's All-Star Game, although at this point, he's clearly the best shortstop the AL has to offer.
Since the beginning of the 2009 season, when the White Sox shifted him across the bag from second base to shortstop, Ramirez has posted the highest UZR of any player at the position in either league, even ahead of defensive specialists such as Cesar Izturis, Elvis Andrus and Brendan Ryan.
And unlike that trio, Ramirez can actually hit.
He's not quite Tulowitzki at the plate, but Ramirez has legitimate power; he averaged 18 home runs per season during his first three years in the big leagues. He combines above-average power with quality contact skills, allowing him to avoid strikeouts and keep his batting average at a more than respectable level. Ramirez has never been the most patient hitter at the plate, but he's nearly doubled his walk rate from last year, and he's currently only seven walks away from tying his entire 2010 total.
Even as offense around the league has decreased the past few years, Ramirez has continued to improve, and he is now on pace to have the best season of his career. In fact, the 2.7 wins above replacement that he has accumulated so far this season is second only to Reyes among shortstops in MLB. This isn't just a flukey hot start to the season, either -- Ramirez has been legitimately terrific for several years now.
Since the beginning of the 2009 season, Ramirez has posted 9.3 WAR, the fourth-highest total of any shortstop in baseball, American League or National League. The only players ahead of him? Tulowitzki, Ramirez and Jeter, and I doubt you'll find too many people who think that Jeter is still a high-quality player at this point in his career.
And yet, Ramirez is never mentioned as one of the best in the league at the position. Perhaps it is partially due to the fact that he spent his rookie year as a poor defensive second baseman who made a lot of mental mistakes, or maybe it's just that he doesn't fit the mold of a high-profile player. He doesn't have the flair of Reyes or make as many highlight-reel plays as Andrus, but the reality is that Ramirez has produced at an elite level since moving to the position.
Reyes is going to cash in on the scarcity of shortstops in baseball this winter when he lands a monster contract as a free agent, but his signing will only continue to reinforce how valuable Ramirez is to the White Sox. After getting away with paying him just a total of $6.3 million over the first four years of his career (including just $2.75 million this season), the White Sox were able to lock up the next four years of his career for a total of just $32.5 million, a fraction of what Reyes will get in the free-agent market this winter, and just a drop in the bucket compared to the massive 10-year, $157 million contract the Rockies gave Tulowitzki.
Not only is Ramirez producing an an All-Star level for the White Sox, he's doing so while earning a fraction of what he's worth, and the contract extension he signed will keep it that way for the foreseeable future. Underappreciated and underpaid, Ramirez is truly one of the game's hidden gems.
Over in the American League, however, it's a different story. Derek Jeter is the big name but his skills have eroded to the point that he's barely contributing anymore, and the rest of the teams in the Junior Circuit field shortstops who are mostly anonymous to the national public. However, there's one shortstop in the AL who deserves more recognition than he's received to date and has shown that he's good enough to hang with the big boys at the position.
Alexei Ramirez has quietly become the best player on the White Sox and is perhaps the best-kept secret in all of baseball. How underrated is he? He's not even in the top five in voting at the position for next month's All-Star Game, although at this point, he's clearly the best shortstop the AL has to offer.
Since the beginning of the 2009 season, when the White Sox shifted him across the bag from second base to shortstop, Ramirez has posted the highest UZR of any player at the position in either league, even ahead of defensive specialists such as Cesar Izturis, Elvis Andrus and Brendan Ryan.
And unlike that trio, Ramirez can actually hit.
He's not quite Tulowitzki at the plate, but Ramirez has legitimate power; he averaged 18 home runs per season during his first three years in the big leagues. He combines above-average power with quality contact skills, allowing him to avoid strikeouts and keep his batting average at a more than respectable level. Ramirez has never been the most patient hitter at the plate, but he's nearly doubled his walk rate from last year, and he's currently only seven walks away from tying his entire 2010 total.
Even as offense around the league has decreased the past few years, Ramirez has continued to improve, and he is now on pace to have the best season of his career. In fact, the 2.7 wins above replacement that he has accumulated so far this season is second only to Reyes among shortstops in MLB. This isn't just a flukey hot start to the season, either -- Ramirez has been legitimately terrific for several years now.
Since the beginning of the 2009 season, Ramirez has posted 9.3 WAR, the fourth-highest total of any shortstop in baseball, American League or National League. The only players ahead of him? Tulowitzki, Ramirez and Jeter, and I doubt you'll find too many people who think that Jeter is still a high-quality player at this point in his career.
And yet, Ramirez is never mentioned as one of the best in the league at the position. Perhaps it is partially due to the fact that he spent his rookie year as a poor defensive second baseman who made a lot of mental mistakes, or maybe it's just that he doesn't fit the mold of a high-profile player. He doesn't have the flair of Reyes or make as many highlight-reel plays as Andrus, but the reality is that Ramirez has produced at an elite level since moving to the position.
Reyes is going to cash in on the scarcity of shortstops in baseball this winter when he lands a monster contract as a free agent, but his signing will only continue to reinforce how valuable Ramirez is to the White Sox. After getting away with paying him just a total of $6.3 million over the first four years of his career (including just $2.75 million this season), the White Sox were able to lock up the next four years of his career for a total of just $32.5 million, a fraction of what Reyes will get in the free-agent market this winter, and just a drop in the bucket compared to the massive 10-year, $157 million contract the Rockies gave Tulowitzki.
Not only is Ramirez producing an an All-Star level for the White Sox, he's doing so while earning a fraction of what he's worth, and the contract extension he signed will keep it that way for the foreseeable future. Underappreciated and underpaid, Ramirez is truly one of the game's hidden gems.
Jonny Venter's season.
Spoiler [+]
NEW YORK -- A clubhouse attendant who has been around ballplayers for a long, long time reports that he has never heard the kind of visceral, defeated responses from hitters that Jonny Venters generates. They can't stand facing him, and can't stand trying, with great futility, to square up his two-seam fastball, which seems to dive as it reaches home plate. Imagine trying to take a swing against a golf ball thrown from a rooftop.
Venters' numbers tell one side of the story: The guy has allowed two runs in 35⅔ innings. He's pitched 118⅔ innings in the majors and surrendered just one home run. He has struck out 35 batters in 35⅔ innings -- which means he's getting a lot of swings and misses -- and yet is averaging a Halladay-like 13.4 pitches per inning.
But another side of the story of his dominance is told by hitters, like Joey Votto, who made a weak out against Venters last year and then, on his way back to the dugout, veered past the pitcher's mound. "You're not fun to face," Votto said to Venters.
The left-hander grinned as he told this story. His teammates really love Venters for how he carries himself, with total humility and appreciation for what he's doing. "He strikes out the side and he comes off the mound like he can't believe it," said one of the veterans around him.
Venters was initially summoned from the minors last year with the thought that he could match up well against left-handers, but as Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez noted, it really doesn't matter whether you bring him in against left-handers or right-handers … or against the middle of the order or against pinch-hitters. He has completely overpowered everybody.
It doesn't matter to Venters, either, when he pitches. Gonzalez and pitching coach Roger McDowell summoned Venters and closer Craig Kimbrel into a meeting recently and told both of them that there might be days when Venters gets the call to finish a game, rather than Kimbrel. This isn't because of any dissatisfaction with Kimbrel, but because Gonzalez believes that there might be a day when Kimbrel could use a break, and because he figures it's not a bad thing for Venters and the Braves for him to experience the ninth-inning ledge.
Venters kind of shrugged when asked about this, and grinned again. "I don't think either one of us cares about what role we're in," he said, referring to Kimbrel. "For Craig and I, I think the simpler, the better."
Nobody really has a strong theory about why Venters' two-seam fastball moves so violently. Venters started throwing a two-seamer in Triple-A, with the same grip as everybody else, and had some good results. But once he got to big leagues, he noticed that the balls were different -- harder on their surface -- and he liked the adrenaline of coming into a game out of the bullpen. All of a sudden, his two-seamer began developing a reputation as a worthy heir to Mariano Rivera's cutter as the most dominant pitch in the majors.
Opposing hitters are batting .140 against Venters this year and they have a slugging percentage of .167; they have an OPS of .395. They're batting .087 with runners in scoring position, with 10 strikeouts in 23 at-bats and no extra-base hits.
He has faced 34 hitters when working with zero days of rest -- he's worked more innings than any reliever in the majors -- and in those at-bats, he's allowed one hit. That's an .029 batting average, which is impossibly good. "I feel better when I'm throwing more," Venters said. "I feel like I can stay in rhythm."
If there is a kryptonite for Venters, nobody has found it yet.
• Our colleague Orel Hershiser is joining the Steve Garvey group that is looking into the possibility of purchasing sports franchises. I asked Orel if he intended to pursue a possible purchase of the Dodgers, and he said, "The Dodgers are not for sale; I wish them the best."
He also said, "The city of Los Angeles and Dodger fans deserve the best."
This is now called the Garvey-Hershiser Group, Jill Painter writes.
• Last week, Jason Heyward got another MRI that indicated that his shoulder has no structural damage. He has been receiving deep-massage treatment this week, which is apparently helping; he could soon be on his way back.
His teammates want him back as soon as possible, and feel they need him. There is a distinct feeling, in being around the Braves' players, that they want Heyward to grind his way through his discomfort, to get back on the field and play, even if he's not completely 100 percent healthy. They want him to focus on making the necessary adjustments to the way opposing pitchers have attacked him in 2011 -- pounding him with fastballs inside -- and work through his early-season slump. They've seen the impact that he can have in the 187 games he has played.
• Wrote here earlier this week about the interesting quandary of the Seattle Mariners, given the success of Michael Pineda and the fact he's never thrown more than 139⅓ innings in any season. The Texas Rangers have a similar situation with Alexi Ogando -- but under completely different parameters. Ogando is among the early Cy Young candidates in the American League, but he's never pitched a full season as a starter in the majors or the minors, or in the Dominican Republic, where he transitioned from being an outfielder to a relief pitcher.
Ogando is 27 years old, with a body that has filled out. When he was in the Dominican -- working under the tutelage of Jose Jaimes, Pablo Blanco and John Burgos -- he had limited innings, under less stressful competition. "So this is basically new to him and us, as far as any innings limit," Rangers GM Jon Daniels wrote in an email. "He's such a unique guy -- in his delivery, his background, body type, the whole deal -- no real comparables. We're monitoring him, in much the same way we did with C.J. [Wilson] last year. The staff will back off when it can, or if he needs a breather, but we don't have a set number of innings we're aiming for. When he had a blister last month, we skipped a start. He probably could have thrown through it, but we played it safe, thinking that in addition to his finger, the extra time between outings might be beneficial in big picture."
Ron Washington wants Ogando in the All-Star Game, writes Evan Grant.
It's worth repeating: The Rangers have a lot of room for growth. Derek Holland was outstanding on Saturday.
• Jose Reyes hit a bases-loaded triple to key the Mets' 5-0 win over Atlanta on Saturday. Triples have not been a rare occurrence for Reyes thus far in 2011. FROM ELIAS:
[h4]10-plus Triples Through June 4[/h4]
Live Ball Era (since 1920)
[th=""]Year[/th][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Number[/th][h3]The draft[/h3]
The Pirates have a number of candidates for the No. 1 pick, writes Bill Brink, although within the industry the betting is very heavy that they will take Gerrit Cole.
Anthony Rendon could be the second pick in the draft, writes Larry Stone.
The Royals will have options with the No. 5 pick in the draft, writes Bob Dutton.
The draft will provide an opportunity for the Phillies to restock their farm system, writes Bob Brookover.
The Astros could be focusing on high schoolers, writes Zachary Levine.
The Rangers might be passing on a local kid.
• Albert Pujols mashed a couple of homers on Saturday, in what has been a really nice week for him. His numbers the past seven days:
Average: .370
Homers: 4
RBIs: 9
Slugging percentage: .889
OPS: 1.358
More on Pujols, from ESPN Stats & Info: Pujols had his 41st career multi-HR game on Saturday, including his ninth career walk-off. Both of Pujols' home runs came on pitches out of the strike zone. He's only the second player this season (Juan Miranda being the other) to have a multi-HR game on pitches out of the zone. The home runs were Pujols' fourth and fifth of the season on pitches out of the zone, eclipsing his total of four all of last season and pushing him into the MLB lead.
[h4]Albert Pujols, 2011 Season[/h4]
AB Ending On Pitches Out of the Zone
[th=""]Stat[/th][th=""]Number[/th][th=""]MLB Rank<<[/th]
If Pujols is back to his old self, this is bad news for the NL Central, writes Bernie Miklasz.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Evan Longoria left Saturday's game with tightness in his side, Marc Topkin writes.
2. Denard Span sat out a game because of soreness that stems from a slide at the plate. Span looked at the replay and indicated that he wished he had plowed into Brayan Pena, rather than sliding.
3. When Jordan Schafer walked into the Atlanta clubhouse late Saturday afternoon, the condition of his face was something of a shock. After seeing him bunt the ball into his own left cheekbone on Friday night, you would've thought his whole eye would've been blackened -- but that wasn't the case at all. He had some swelling and discomfort, after suffering a non-displaced fracture of his sinus, but he indicated he'd be available to pinch-run in Saturday's game, and that he hoped to be in the lineup Sunday night. We'll see. His injury isn't considered to be serious, Carroll Rogers writes.
4. Clay Buchholz's back trouble may push back his next start.
5. Brandon Belt wound up on the disabled list, on a day when the Giants lost; he has a hairline fracture in his wrist after getting hit by a pitch in St. Louis the other day.
6. Matt Kemp sparked a rally.
7. Rafael Furcal landed on the disabled list again; he refuses to mention the word retire, writes Dylan Hernandez.
8. Hanley Ramirez is likely headed to the DL on Monday.
9. Paul Konerko's sore wrist is keeping him out of the lineup.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Rays dropped Andy Sonnanstine from their rotation, and installed Alex Cobb.
2. Edinson Volquez is getting the ball again for the Reds on Tuesday.
[h3]Saturday's games[/h3]1. CC Sabathia has seven wins this season, after shutting down the Angels on Saturday, and he continues to march steadily toward 200 career victories; he's got 164 career wins at age 30, and has the athleticism and the durability to take a run at 300 career wins.
How Sabathia won, from ESPN Stats & Info:
A) Efficiency … to a lot of hitters. Sabathia faced 37 Angels hitters in his 8⅔ innings but needed only 107 pitches to get through them (2.9 pitches/PA). The 37 plate appearances is tied for tops for any pitcher this year (Jair Jurrjens faced 37 Padres on April 26). There have been three games this season when a hurler has thrown at least 100 pitches and his pitch/PA was less than 3.0 and Sabathia owns two of them (Ricky Romero has the other).
B) He started strong, in innings. Of the nine batters he faced to start innings, he retired eight. Of the 37 batters he faced, only three saw a 2-0 count.
C) He generated good results with non-fastballs. Sabathia split up his fastball/non-fastball numbers evenly (55 fastballs, 52 not) but he had a lot more success with the slower stuff. The Angels were 2-for-18 (.111) on at-bats ending with non-fastballs.
Sabathia has pitched his fourth straight start of at least eight innings, with his 8⅔ IP on Saturday against the Angels. In the past 15 years, the only Yankees pitcher with a longer streak was David Cone, who had five straight in 1998.
2. The Diamondbacks are beginning to develop a nice internal competition, and Joe Saunders -- who has struggled for some of this season -- had a really nice outing. From Stats & Info, how he won:
A) The changeup. Saunders threw 33 changeups and the Nats were 1-for-10 (.100) with a strikeout in at-bats ending on the pitch. The 33 changeups are the most Saunders has thrown in a game since 2009 -- his previous high was 27.
B) He worked outside. Saunders threw 42 of his 93 pitches "outside." Nationals hitters were 1-for-12 (.083) with three strikeouts on at-bats ending on such pitches.
C) He had good control. Of the 26 batters Saunders faced, only four saw a three-ball count (15 percent; league average, 20 percent).
3. Jeremy Hellickson was dominant, on a day when the Rays really needed it.
4. Justin Verlander hoisted the Tigers.
5. Charlie Morton shut down the Phillies, making a knee-buckling pitch along the way.
6. Livan Hernandez was a hard-luck loser.
7. Oakland lost its fifth straight, to Boston, Joe Stiglich writes.
8. A-Rod provided the difference-maker against the Angels, Mike DiGiovanna writes. Alex Rodriguez now ranks ninth all-time in RBIs, with 1,864, and he's got 623 homers.
9. The Padres won again in Petco, for the second straight game, Bill Center writes.
10. The Phillies' hitting woes continue: They lost to the Pirates, again, mustering just three runs.
11. The Braves gave away outs.
12. The Jays lost, but had Adam Lind back in their lineup.
13. Chris Volstad's winless streak continues.
14. Dillon Gee is 6-0, after his latest win.
15. The Reds coughed up a big lead, Tom Groeschen writes.
16. J.D. Drew ended a crazy game for the Red Sox.
17. The Indians lost again to the Rangers, Dennis Manoloff writes, and along the way Vinnie Pestano left the game with back tightness. Not good.
18. Mike Quade had a warning for his pitcher, before Pujols' walk-off homer. This obscured the fact Randy Wells threw well, Paul Sullivan writes.
19. Yovani Gallardo overcame obstacles to win.
20. Ben Revere has helped to keep a good thing going for the Twins.
Venters' numbers tell one side of the story: The guy has allowed two runs in 35⅔ innings. He's pitched 118⅔ innings in the majors and surrendered just one home run. He has struck out 35 batters in 35⅔ innings -- which means he's getting a lot of swings and misses -- and yet is averaging a Halladay-like 13.4 pitches per inning.
But another side of the story of his dominance is told by hitters, like Joey Votto, who made a weak out against Venters last year and then, on his way back to the dugout, veered past the pitcher's mound. "You're not fun to face," Votto said to Venters.
The left-hander grinned as he told this story. His teammates really love Venters for how he carries himself, with total humility and appreciation for what he's doing. "He strikes out the side and he comes off the mound like he can't believe it," said one of the veterans around him.
Venters was initially summoned from the minors last year with the thought that he could match up well against left-handers, but as Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez noted, it really doesn't matter whether you bring him in against left-handers or right-handers … or against the middle of the order or against pinch-hitters. He has completely overpowered everybody.
It doesn't matter to Venters, either, when he pitches. Gonzalez and pitching coach Roger McDowell summoned Venters and closer Craig Kimbrel into a meeting recently and told both of them that there might be days when Venters gets the call to finish a game, rather than Kimbrel. This isn't because of any dissatisfaction with Kimbrel, but because Gonzalez believes that there might be a day when Kimbrel could use a break, and because he figures it's not a bad thing for Venters and the Braves for him to experience the ninth-inning ledge.
Venters kind of shrugged when asked about this, and grinned again. "I don't think either one of us cares about what role we're in," he said, referring to Kimbrel. "For Craig and I, I think the simpler, the better."
Nobody really has a strong theory about why Venters' two-seam fastball moves so violently. Venters started throwing a two-seamer in Triple-A, with the same grip as everybody else, and had some good results. But once he got to big leagues, he noticed that the balls were different -- harder on their surface -- and he liked the adrenaline of coming into a game out of the bullpen. All of a sudden, his two-seamer began developing a reputation as a worthy heir to Mariano Rivera's cutter as the most dominant pitch in the majors.
Opposing hitters are batting .140 against Venters this year and they have a slugging percentage of .167; they have an OPS of .395. They're batting .087 with runners in scoring position, with 10 strikeouts in 23 at-bats and no extra-base hits.
He has faced 34 hitters when working with zero days of rest -- he's worked more innings than any reliever in the majors -- and in those at-bats, he's allowed one hit. That's an .029 batting average, which is impossibly good. "I feel better when I'm throwing more," Venters said. "I feel like I can stay in rhythm."
If there is a kryptonite for Venters, nobody has found it yet.
• Our colleague Orel Hershiser is joining the Steve Garvey group that is looking into the possibility of purchasing sports franchises. I asked Orel if he intended to pursue a possible purchase of the Dodgers, and he said, "The Dodgers are not for sale; I wish them the best."
He also said, "The city of Los Angeles and Dodger fans deserve the best."
This is now called the Garvey-Hershiser Group, Jill Painter writes.
• Last week, Jason Heyward got another MRI that indicated that his shoulder has no structural damage. He has been receiving deep-massage treatment this week, which is apparently helping; he could soon be on his way back.
His teammates want him back as soon as possible, and feel they need him. There is a distinct feeling, in being around the Braves' players, that they want Heyward to grind his way through his discomfort, to get back on the field and play, even if he's not completely 100 percent healthy. They want him to focus on making the necessary adjustments to the way opposing pitchers have attacked him in 2011 -- pounding him with fastballs inside -- and work through his early-season slump. They've seen the impact that he can have in the 187 games he has played.
• Wrote here earlier this week about the interesting quandary of the Seattle Mariners, given the success of Michael Pineda and the fact he's never thrown more than 139⅓ innings in any season. The Texas Rangers have a similar situation with Alexi Ogando -- but under completely different parameters. Ogando is among the early Cy Young candidates in the American League, but he's never pitched a full season as a starter in the majors or the minors, or in the Dominican Republic, where he transitioned from being an outfielder to a relief pitcher.
Ogando is 27 years old, with a body that has filled out. When he was in the Dominican -- working under the tutelage of Jose Jaimes, Pablo Blanco and John Burgos -- he had limited innings, under less stressful competition. "So this is basically new to him and us, as far as any innings limit," Rangers GM Jon Daniels wrote in an email. "He's such a unique guy -- in his delivery, his background, body type, the whole deal -- no real comparables. We're monitoring him, in much the same way we did with C.J. [Wilson] last year. The staff will back off when it can, or if he needs a breather, but we don't have a set number of innings we're aiming for. When he had a blister last month, we skipped a start. He probably could have thrown through it, but we played it safe, thinking that in addition to his finger, the extra time between outings might be beneficial in big picture."
Ron Washington wants Ogando in the All-Star Game, writes Evan Grant.
It's worth repeating: The Rangers have a lot of room for growth. Derek Holland was outstanding on Saturday.
• Jose Reyes hit a bases-loaded triple to key the Mets' 5-0 win over Atlanta on Saturday. Triples have not been a rare occurrence for Reyes thus far in 2011. FROM ELIAS:
[h4]10-plus Triples Through June 4[/h4]
Live Ball Era (since 1920)
| '11 | Jose Reyes | 10 |
| '85 | Willie Wilson | 10 |
| '26 | Lou Gehrig | 10 |
| '26 | Glenn Wright | 10 |
| '21 | Ty Cobb | 10 |
The Pirates have a number of candidates for the No. 1 pick, writes Bill Brink, although within the industry the betting is very heavy that they will take Gerrit Cole.
Anthony Rendon could be the second pick in the draft, writes Larry Stone.
The Royals will have options with the No. 5 pick in the draft, writes Bob Dutton.
The draft will provide an opportunity for the Phillies to restock their farm system, writes Bob Brookover.
The Astros could be focusing on high schoolers, writes Zachary Levine.
The Rangers might be passing on a local kid.
• Albert Pujols mashed a couple of homers on Saturday, in what has been a really nice week for him. His numbers the past seven days:
Average: .370
Homers: 4
RBIs: 9
Slugging percentage: .889
OPS: 1.358
More on Pujols, from ESPN Stats & Info: Pujols had his 41st career multi-HR game on Saturday, including his ninth career walk-off. Both of Pujols' home runs came on pitches out of the strike zone. He's only the second player this season (Juan Miranda being the other) to have a multi-HR game on pitches out of the zone. The home runs were Pujols' fourth and fifth of the season on pitches out of the zone, eclipsing his total of four all of last season and pushing him into the MLB lead.
[h4]Albert Pujols, 2011 Season[/h4]
AB Ending On Pitches Out of the Zone
| BA | .306 | 3 |
| HR | 5 | 1 |
| Slug pct | .565 | 1 |
| >>min 150 PA |
If Pujols is back to his old self, this is bad news for the NL Central, writes Bernie Miklasz.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Evan Longoria left Saturday's game with tightness in his side, Marc Topkin writes.
2. Denard Span sat out a game because of soreness that stems from a slide at the plate. Span looked at the replay and indicated that he wished he had plowed into Brayan Pena, rather than sliding.
3. When Jordan Schafer walked into the Atlanta clubhouse late Saturday afternoon, the condition of his face was something of a shock. After seeing him bunt the ball into his own left cheekbone on Friday night, you would've thought his whole eye would've been blackened -- but that wasn't the case at all. He had some swelling and discomfort, after suffering a non-displaced fracture of his sinus, but he indicated he'd be available to pinch-run in Saturday's game, and that he hoped to be in the lineup Sunday night. We'll see. His injury isn't considered to be serious, Carroll Rogers writes.
4. Clay Buchholz's back trouble may push back his next start.
5. Brandon Belt wound up on the disabled list, on a day when the Giants lost; he has a hairline fracture in his wrist after getting hit by a pitch in St. Louis the other day.
6. Matt Kemp sparked a rally.
7. Rafael Furcal landed on the disabled list again; he refuses to mention the word retire, writes Dylan Hernandez.
8. Hanley Ramirez is likely headed to the DL on Monday.
9. Paul Konerko's sore wrist is keeping him out of the lineup.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Rays dropped Andy Sonnanstine from their rotation, and installed Alex Cobb.
2. Edinson Volquez is getting the ball again for the Reds on Tuesday.
[h3]Saturday's games[/h3]1. CC Sabathia has seven wins this season, after shutting down the Angels on Saturday, and he continues to march steadily toward 200 career victories; he's got 164 career wins at age 30, and has the athleticism and the durability to take a run at 300 career wins.
How Sabathia won, from ESPN Stats & Info:
A) Efficiency … to a lot of hitters. Sabathia faced 37 Angels hitters in his 8⅔ innings but needed only 107 pitches to get through them (2.9 pitches/PA). The 37 plate appearances is tied for tops for any pitcher this year (Jair Jurrjens faced 37 Padres on April 26). There have been three games this season when a hurler has thrown at least 100 pitches and his pitch/PA was less than 3.0 and Sabathia owns two of them (Ricky Romero has the other).
B) He started strong, in innings. Of the nine batters he faced to start innings, he retired eight. Of the 37 batters he faced, only three saw a 2-0 count.
C) He generated good results with non-fastballs. Sabathia split up his fastball/non-fastball numbers evenly (55 fastballs, 52 not) but he had a lot more success with the slower stuff. The Angels were 2-for-18 (.111) on at-bats ending with non-fastballs.
Sabathia has pitched his fourth straight start of at least eight innings, with his 8⅔ IP on Saturday against the Angels. In the past 15 years, the only Yankees pitcher with a longer streak was David Cone, who had five straight in 1998.
2. The Diamondbacks are beginning to develop a nice internal competition, and Joe Saunders -- who has struggled for some of this season -- had a really nice outing. From Stats & Info, how he won:
A) The changeup. Saunders threw 33 changeups and the Nats were 1-for-10 (.100) with a strikeout in at-bats ending on the pitch. The 33 changeups are the most Saunders has thrown in a game since 2009 -- his previous high was 27.
B) He worked outside. Saunders threw 42 of his 93 pitches "outside." Nationals hitters were 1-for-12 (.083) with three strikeouts on at-bats ending on such pitches.
C) He had good control. Of the 26 batters Saunders faced, only four saw a three-ball count (15 percent; league average, 20 percent).
3. Jeremy Hellickson was dominant, on a day when the Rays really needed it.
4. Justin Verlander hoisted the Tigers.
5. Charlie Morton shut down the Phillies, making a knee-buckling pitch along the way.
6. Livan Hernandez was a hard-luck loser.
7. Oakland lost its fifth straight, to Boston, Joe Stiglich writes.
8. A-Rod provided the difference-maker against the Angels, Mike DiGiovanna writes. Alex Rodriguez now ranks ninth all-time in RBIs, with 1,864, and he's got 623 homers.
9. The Padres won again in Petco, for the second straight game, Bill Center writes.
10. The Phillies' hitting woes continue: They lost to the Pirates, again, mustering just three runs.
11. The Braves gave away outs.
12. The Jays lost, but had Adam Lind back in their lineup.
13. Chris Volstad's winless streak continues.
14. Dillon Gee is 6-0, after his latest win.
15. The Reds coughed up a big lead, Tom Groeschen writes.
16. J.D. Drew ended a crazy game for the Red Sox.
17. The Indians lost again to the Rangers, Dennis Manoloff writes, and along the way Vinnie Pestano left the game with back tightness. Not good.
18. Mike Quade had a warning for his pitcher, before Pujols' walk-off homer. This obscured the fact Randy Wells threw well, Paul Sullivan writes.
19. Yovani Gallardo overcame obstacles to win.
20. Ben Revere has helped to keep a good thing going for the Twins.
- 3,184
- 10
Jose Fernandez
- 3,184
- 10
Jose Fernandez
MLB Draft: Best, Worst and Who's Left.
Full analysis of the first round.
Analysis of the compensation round.
Seven days rest theory.
The Freak II
Washington rebuilding.
Rumors.
http://[h3]Could Boras steer Prince to DC?[/h3]
9:50AM ET
[h5]Prince Fielder | Brewers [/h5]
Many teams run for the hills when it comes to dealing with Scott Boras, but the super agent doesn't scare away the Washington Nationals. Monday's draft was another example, adding to speculation that the Nats could be a serious player for Brewers first baseman Prince Fielder this fall.
ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney connects the dots in Tuesday's blog after the Nats selected Rice third baseman Anthony Rendon, a Boras client, on Monday night. Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper, two other Day One picks, are represented by Boras, as are Jayson Werth and Fielder.
Olney says there is "growing industry speculation" that Fielder could be a target of the Nats, in part because they are comfortable dealing with Boras. One thought: if Werth could get $126 million, what is Fielder's price tag?
Last week, we mentioned the Orioles as a team that could have interest in Fielder.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Another setback for Lidge[/h3]
9:21AM ET
[h5]Brad Lidge | Phillies [/h5]
It's a good thing for the Phillies that Ryan Madson has comfortably moved into the closer's role. Injured closer Brad Lidge suffered yet another setback Monday, pushing back the timetable for a return.
General manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said Lidge had elbow soreness while throwing a bullpen session in Florida. Lidge will return to Philadelphia to be examined by team doctor Michael Ciccotti.
Lidge, who has yet to pitch this season, is on the 60-day disabled list with a torn rotator cuff.
If the Phillies do seek bullpen help at the deadline, it would likely be for middle relief. Madson has converted all 13 of his save opportunities and has finally earned the confidence of manager Charlie Manuel.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Speedy return for Hanley?[/h3]
8:55AM ET
[h5]Hanley Ramirez | Marlins [/h5]
UPDATE: Hanley Ramirez finally landed on the disabled list and is eligible to be reinstated June 14. Monday was the most confident Ramirez has sounded about a speedy return.
Ramirez says he likely won't need any rehab games, but that may depend on how he feels over the next week. In the meantime, Emilio Bonifacio remains the starting shortstop.
--
We have a plausible explanation for the dramatic fall in production this season by Hanley Ramirez, and it may result in the first-ever trip to the disabled list for the Florida Marlins shortstop.
Manny Navarro of the Miami Herald reports Ramirez, barring a miraculous recovery, is headed to the disabled list. Ramirez has not played in a week because of continued stiffness in his lower back that forced him to leave last Sunday's game in Los Angeles.
Ramirez told Juan C. Rodriguez of the Sun-Sentinel that he's felt discomfort for about a month, adding that it was the worst pain he ever experienced.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28877/emilio-bonifacioEmilio Bonifacio has started at shortstop in place of Ramirez.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Making room for Mazzaro[/h3]
8:38AM ET
[h5]Vin Mazzaro | Royals [/h5]
When we last saw Vin Mazzaro in a big league uniform, the righthander was enduring a public flogging courtesy of the Cleveland Indians. Mazzaro was tagged for 14 runs over 2 1/3 innings on May 16 and the Royals promptly shipped him to Triple-A Omaha.
Mazzaro has seemingly worked out his problems in the minors and will be recalled in time to face the Blue Jays on Tuesday night. The Royals did not announce a corresponding move to clear space for Mazzaro, but the Kansas City Star says they seem likely to option reliever Jesse Chavez to Omaha.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]A step forward for Kendall[/h3]
8:28AM ET
[h5]Jason Kendall | Royals [/h5]
The Kansas City Royals still have no concrete timetable on a return for Jason Kendall, but the veteran catcher took a step forward Monday when he took batting practice for the first time since undergoing shoulder surgery.
If things proceed as planned, Kendall should be ready to head out on a rehab assignment by the end of the month, manager Ned Yost tells the Kansas City Star.
The 36-year-old Kendall is the final year of a two-year, $6 million deal, so he may be in his final months with the organization. Matt Treanor and Brayan Pena have shared the catching duties in Kendall's absence.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Scutaro completes rehab stint[/h3]
8:08AM ET
[h5]Marco Scutaro | Red Sox [/h5]
UPDATE: Scutaro completed a rehab stint Monday and is expected to the join the Red Sox in time for Tuesday's game against the Yankees. Righthander Scott Atchison will be sent back to Pawtucket to make room for Scutaro, who was 5-for-11 in three games for the PawSox.
--
Veteran infielder Marco Scutaro will start a rehab assignment for Triple-A Pawtucket Saturday, and could be activated from the disabled list sometime within a week, reports the Boston Globe.
But how much Scutaro will play once he returns remains to be seen. Jed Lowrie is hitting .304/.349/.406 and is handling shortstop defensively. Furthermore, one of Scutaro's potential advantages -- his ability to hit left-handed pitching as a pure right-handed hitter -- is of no advantage in the end, with the switch-hitting Lowrie hitting .431/.443/.690 versus southpaws.
Scutaro has flashed well above-average defense at shortstop in the past, but at 35 those days may be behind him. He could instead serve as a utility reserve, spelling Lowrie, Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis around the infield.
- Jason A. Churchill
http://[h3]Johnson not close to a promotion[/h3]
7:55AM ET
[h5]Nick Johnson | Indians [/h5]
Nick Johnson was in the Indians' clubhouse before Monday night's game against the Twins, but that doesn't mean the veteran first baseman is close to a big league call-up, manager Manny Acta tells MLB.com.
The injury-plagued Johnson, who has played in all of 24 games last season, was signed in early March and has played in a pair of games at Double-A Akron. He is headed for Triple-A Columbus and Acta wants him to get plenty of at-bats before any decision is made on a promotion.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Pettitte happy in retirement[/h3]
7:42AM ET
[h5]Andy Pettitte | Yankees [/h5]
Any talk of a possible return by Andy Pettitte to the New York Yankees seemed to be quelled Monday when the 240-game winner said he perfectly content in his retirement in Deer Park, Texas.
"I'm not dying to be playing baseball right now," Pettitte said on the Michael Kay Show on ESPNNewYork1050. "I'm absolutely loving being home."
Pettitte's comments were far from a surprise, but it is a plausible scenario that he could be a solid late-season contributor after having a few months off, just as Pedro Martinez did with the Phillies in 2009. But Pettitte doesn't seem to have the same itch to return.
"I'm just telling you right now, I don't think I will ever pitch again," Pettitte said.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Peavy avoids DL[/h3]
7:05AM ET
[h5]Jake Peavy | White Sox [/h5]
The decision of the Chicago White Sox to go with a six-man rotation now looks like a prudent one after Jake Peavy was removed from his start against the Tigers Sunday with a strained right groin.
While there was plenty of speculation Peavy would land on the disabled list Monday, no roster move was made after he underwent an MRI examination that revealed a light sprain of his right groin.
Manager Ozzie Guillen already had planned to go with a six-man rotation until the All-Star break, an indication they were concerned with Peavy's past history of injuries. Now the struggling White Sox will go back to the conventional rotation with Philip Humber as the fifth starter.
Spoiler [+]
Day 1 of the 2011 MLB draft was full of surprises, with the Mariners shocking everyone by going pitcher (surprise No. 1) and making that pick Virginia lefty Danny Hultzen (surprise No. 2), probably scorching the Royals' long-held plan to grab a college pitcher with the No. 5 pick. But there were plenty of intriguing moves through the remainder of the evening, some I loved, some that had me scratching my head. I've also listed my top remaining players as the draft moves to Day 2.
[h3]Moves I liked[/h3]
[h3]Tampa Bay Rays[/h3]
The picks: Taylor Guerrieri (24), Mikie Mahtook (31), Jake Hager (32), Brandon Martin (3
, Tyler Goeddel (41), Jeff Ames (42), Blake Snell (52), Kes Carter (56), Grayson Garvin (59), James Harris (60)
Summary: When you pick as often as Tampa Bay did, you're bound to do something I can praise. And I did like the majority of the Rays' picks. Their first pick, Taylor Guerrieri, has top-half-of-the-round stuff but fell on some signability and makeup questions -- however, the Rays did their homework on the latter and are satisfied with what they learned. Mikie Mahtook fell because ... well, I have no idea why he fell, maybe "profit-taking." He's a balanced player who'll contribute on offense and defense and move quickly through the system, and he plays like his hair is on fire. Tyler Goeddel is an athletic, projectable bat who should end up in left field and provide average and power. Brandon Martin is a shortstop who should stay at the position and has a short swing to produce line-drive contact. Grayson Garvin is a polished left-handed starter whose velocity ticked up at year's end, and he comes from Vanderbilt, one of the country's best college programs for developing arms. The Rays took probability, they took ceiling, they took tough signs, they took quick signs. They built a portfolio among their picks, taking advantage of the control they had with all of those selections in a short period of the draft. By August, if they sign most of these guys, that farm system likely will be the best in baseball.
[h3]Minnesota Twins[/h3]
The picks: Levi Michael (30), Travis Harrison (50), Hudson Boyd (55)
Summary: Levi Michael is a 20-year-old switch-hitting shortstop who can run; unless the ankle is somehow worse than I've heard, it makes no sense to me that he fell out of the top 20, and the Twins are very fortunate that they could grab him. Travis Harrison was in play in the late first/early sandwich as one of the better pure bats in the high school class but might have fallen on signability and concerns he will end up at first base, where I still think the bat will profile. The Twins also got a personal favorite of mine in Hudson Boyd, a big kid with two above-average pitches and outstanding makeup.
[h3]Arizona Diamondbacks[/h3]
The picks: Trevor Bauer (3), Archie Bradley (7), Andrew Chafin (43),
Summary: I mean, is this cheating, since the Diamondbacks picked twice in the top 10? They sure didn't go cheap with Archie Bradley at No. 7 -- I liked him more than their first pick, Trevor Bauer. And they added Andrew Chafin in the sandwich round, a reliever-turned-starter on the way back from Tommy John surgery who was apparently "disgusting" (that's good) in his last outing prior to the draft.
[h3]San Diego Padres[/h3]
The picks: Cory Spangenberg (10), Joe Ross (25), Michael Kelly (4, Brett Austin (54)
Summary: The pick at No. 10 was unprotected, and the Padres did what they had to do, taking a signable player there in Cory Spangenberg. But they still got some upside because the kid can fly and has a great left-handed swing; if he had a set position, he might have been projected to go there even without the signability. They also added a high-upside arm in Joe Ross, a guy who adds athleticism to their system.
[h3]Boston Red Sox[/h3]
The picks: Matt Barnes (19), Blake Swihart (26), Henry Owens (36), Jackie Bradley (40)
Summary: I hinted at this on Twitter, but some of the credit for Boston's draft is just that the right guys fell to the team. However, the Red Sox do deserve the rest of the credit for actually taking them (and, presumably, paying them). They got Blake Swihart, who I think will be an impact hitter and has a chance to do it as a catcher, with their second pick after preseason top-10 guy Matt Barnes -- whose velocity was fine but didn't show great command this year -- fell to them at No. 19. Henry Owens was spot on in the sandwich round as a projectable lefty who already hits 93 mph and has great deception, and they took a flier on Jackie Bradley's recovery from injury much as they did last year with Anthony Ranaudo.
[h3]Moves I question[/h3]
[h3]Atlanta Braves[/h3]
The picks: Sean Gilmartin (2
Summary: Sean Gilmartin as your lone pick of the day? I like Gilmartin for what he is, an athletic, competitive, back-end starter, but there were a number of higher-upside guys on the board, and the last thing Atlanta needs is a low-ceiling starter.
[h3]Colorado Rockies[/h3]
The picks: Tyler Anderson (20), Trevor Story (45)
Summary: Tyler Anderson was going in the first round, so it wasn't a reach by comparative standards, but I see no out pitch here, just a lefty with some command who'll probably be a pitch-to-contact guy at higher levels, not a great fit for the Rockies' park. Trevor Story can pick it at short with a plus arm, but I don't buy the bat and the consensus from scouts I talked to down there was the same.
[h3]Los Angeles Dodgers[/h3]
The picks: Chris Reed (16)
Summary: I actually don't mind the Chris Reed pick as much as some of my sources -- it's a reach, but put him back in the rotation and it could look very shrewd in a year or so. I'm more concerned about what it means for the club, as my pre-draft report that the Dodgers couldn't go over slot looks like it's probably accurate. That's too bad, especially in a year in which it looks like two dozen clubs might throw the commissioner's slot recommendations out the window.
[h3]Texas Rangers[/h3]
The picks: Kevin Matthews (33), Zach Cone (37),
Summary: Zach Cone has big tools, but they just don't play, exacerbated by a bad leak out front at the plate, and he was wildly overmatched in the Team USA trials last summer and on the Cape the year before (his only real experience hitting with wood). Kevin Matthews is a tough-sign high school lefty who projects as a reliever because of his frame. That seems the opposite of what you'd expect from a nascent, big-market club such as the Rangers, especially since they were linked to several big-ticket, high-ceiling high school kids.
[h3]Seattle Mariners[/h3]
The picks: Danny Hultzen (2)
Summary: I'm not criticizing Hultzen in the least here, but I think drafting at No. 2 overall is a rare chance to go for ceiling, and the Mariners didn't do that. They took a very safe, very good college pitcher who will move quickly but doesn't have No. 1 starter upside. And I admit I like my left-handers to have better breaking balls than Hultzen, whose best off-speed pitch is a changeup.
[h3]Best players remaining[/h3]
The number denotes the player's ranking in my final Top 100 ranking.
1. http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/draft/player/_/id/19032/josh-bellJosh Bell, OF (ranked No. 15 overall)
2. Dillon Howard, RHP (1
3. Anthony Meo, RHP (25)
4. Andrew Susac, C (27)
5. Austin Hedges, C (31)
6. Daniel Norris, LHP (35)
7. Alex Dickerson, OF (37)
8. Charles Tilson, OF (3
9. Nick Delmonico, C/1B (39)
10. Johnny Eierman, SS (44)
[h3]Moves I liked[/h3]
[h3]Tampa Bay Rays[/h3]
The picks: Taylor Guerrieri (24), Mikie Mahtook (31), Jake Hager (32), Brandon Martin (3
, Tyler Goeddel (41), Jeff Ames (42), Blake Snell (52), Kes Carter (56), Grayson Garvin (59), James Harris (60) Summary: When you pick as often as Tampa Bay did, you're bound to do something I can praise. And I did like the majority of the Rays' picks. Their first pick, Taylor Guerrieri, has top-half-of-the-round stuff but fell on some signability and makeup questions -- however, the Rays did their homework on the latter and are satisfied with what they learned. Mikie Mahtook fell because ... well, I have no idea why he fell, maybe "profit-taking." He's a balanced player who'll contribute on offense and defense and move quickly through the system, and he plays like his hair is on fire. Tyler Goeddel is an athletic, projectable bat who should end up in left field and provide average and power. Brandon Martin is a shortstop who should stay at the position and has a short swing to produce line-drive contact. Grayson Garvin is a polished left-handed starter whose velocity ticked up at year's end, and he comes from Vanderbilt, one of the country's best college programs for developing arms. The Rays took probability, they took ceiling, they took tough signs, they took quick signs. They built a portfolio among their picks, taking advantage of the control they had with all of those selections in a short period of the draft. By August, if they sign most of these guys, that farm system likely will be the best in baseball.
[h3]Minnesota Twins[/h3]
The picks: Levi Michael (30), Travis Harrison (50), Hudson Boyd (55)
Summary: Levi Michael is a 20-year-old switch-hitting shortstop who can run; unless the ankle is somehow worse than I've heard, it makes no sense to me that he fell out of the top 20, and the Twins are very fortunate that they could grab him. Travis Harrison was in play in the late first/early sandwich as one of the better pure bats in the high school class but might have fallen on signability and concerns he will end up at first base, where I still think the bat will profile. The Twins also got a personal favorite of mine in Hudson Boyd, a big kid with two above-average pitches and outstanding makeup.
[h3]Arizona Diamondbacks[/h3]
The picks: Trevor Bauer (3), Archie Bradley (7), Andrew Chafin (43),
Summary: I mean, is this cheating, since the Diamondbacks picked twice in the top 10? They sure didn't go cheap with Archie Bradley at No. 7 -- I liked him more than their first pick, Trevor Bauer. And they added Andrew Chafin in the sandwich round, a reliever-turned-starter on the way back from Tommy John surgery who was apparently "disgusting" (that's good) in his last outing prior to the draft.
[h3]San Diego Padres[/h3]
The picks: Cory Spangenberg (10), Joe Ross (25), Michael Kelly (4
, Brett Austin (54) Summary: The pick at No. 10 was unprotected, and the Padres did what they had to do, taking a signable player there in Cory Spangenberg. But they still got some upside because the kid can fly and has a great left-handed swing; if he had a set position, he might have been projected to go there even without the signability. They also added a high-upside arm in Joe Ross, a guy who adds athleticism to their system.
[h3]Boston Red Sox[/h3]
The picks: Matt Barnes (19), Blake Swihart (26), Henry Owens (36), Jackie Bradley (40)
Summary: I hinted at this on Twitter, but some of the credit for Boston's draft is just that the right guys fell to the team. However, the Red Sox do deserve the rest of the credit for actually taking them (and, presumably, paying them). They got Blake Swihart, who I think will be an impact hitter and has a chance to do it as a catcher, with their second pick after preseason top-10 guy Matt Barnes -- whose velocity was fine but didn't show great command this year -- fell to them at No. 19. Henry Owens was spot on in the sandwich round as a projectable lefty who already hits 93 mph and has great deception, and they took a flier on Jackie Bradley's recovery from injury much as they did last year with Anthony Ranaudo.
[h3]Moves I question[/h3]
[h3]Atlanta Braves[/h3]
The picks: Sean Gilmartin (2
Summary: Sean Gilmartin as your lone pick of the day? I like Gilmartin for what he is, an athletic, competitive, back-end starter, but there were a number of higher-upside guys on the board, and the last thing Atlanta needs is a low-ceiling starter.
[h3]Colorado Rockies[/h3]
The picks: Tyler Anderson (20), Trevor Story (45)
Summary: Tyler Anderson was going in the first round, so it wasn't a reach by comparative standards, but I see no out pitch here, just a lefty with some command who'll probably be a pitch-to-contact guy at higher levels, not a great fit for the Rockies' park. Trevor Story can pick it at short with a plus arm, but I don't buy the bat and the consensus from scouts I talked to down there was the same.
[h3]Los Angeles Dodgers[/h3]
The picks: Chris Reed (16)
Summary: I actually don't mind the Chris Reed pick as much as some of my sources -- it's a reach, but put him back in the rotation and it could look very shrewd in a year or so. I'm more concerned about what it means for the club, as my pre-draft report that the Dodgers couldn't go over slot looks like it's probably accurate. That's too bad, especially in a year in which it looks like two dozen clubs might throw the commissioner's slot recommendations out the window.
[h3]Texas Rangers[/h3]
The picks: Kevin Matthews (33), Zach Cone (37),
Summary: Zach Cone has big tools, but they just don't play, exacerbated by a bad leak out front at the plate, and he was wildly overmatched in the Team USA trials last summer and on the Cape the year before (his only real experience hitting with wood). Kevin Matthews is a tough-sign high school lefty who projects as a reliever because of his frame. That seems the opposite of what you'd expect from a nascent, big-market club such as the Rangers, especially since they were linked to several big-ticket, high-ceiling high school kids.
[h3]Seattle Mariners[/h3]
The picks: Danny Hultzen (2)
Summary: I'm not criticizing Hultzen in the least here, but I think drafting at No. 2 overall is a rare chance to go for ceiling, and the Mariners didn't do that. They took a very safe, very good college pitcher who will move quickly but doesn't have No. 1 starter upside. And I admit I like my left-handers to have better breaking balls than Hultzen, whose best off-speed pitch is a changeup.
[h3]Best players remaining[/h3]
The number denotes the player's ranking in my final Top 100 ranking.
1. http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/draft/player/_/id/19032/josh-bellJosh Bell, OF (ranked No. 15 overall)
2. Dillon Howard, RHP (1
3. Anthony Meo, RHP (25)
4. Andrew Susac, C (27)
5. Austin Hedges, C (31)
6. Daniel Norris, LHP (35)
7. Alex Dickerson, OF (37)
8. Charles Tilson, OF (3
9. Nick Delmonico, C/1B (39)
10. Johnny Eierman, SS (44)
Full analysis of the first round.
Spoiler [+]
And now, on to the picks.
[h6]Pittsburgh Pirates
[/h6]
Gerrit Cole, RHP, UCLA
Churchill: We expected this and Keith Law has been projecting this pick for weeks. I saw him twice and he was so-so both times, but with a plus changeup, big-time velocity up to 100 mph and a promising breaking ball, it's difficult to pass on Cole. The Pirates do not have such a player in their system and the UCLA product could see the big leagues after very little time in the minors. Seattle is looking at Rice third baseman Anthony Rendon here and prep center fielder Bubba Starling is still an outside possibility. I have been told shortstop Francisco Lindor is not the pick for the M's
[h6]Seattle Mariners[/h6]
Danny Hultzen, LHP, Virginia
Churchill: Hultzen is a surprise pick here, as the expectation was Rice third baseman Anthony Rendon or prep center fielder Bubba Starling. Hultzen is expected to move quickly and reach the majors within two years, but he does lack the upside of other college pitchers in the class. He did perform well and has above-average stuff including a 90-94 mph fastball and two above-average off-speed pitches. The rumored asking price was high, but perhaps there was a pre-draft deal in place here or strong indications that Hultzen would sign for what Seattle was willing to spend on the pick. Arizona is likely to tab UCLA right-hander Trevor Bauer at No. 3, but with Rendon still on the board, anything goes from this point forward.
[h6]Arizona Diamondbacks[/h6]
Trevor Bauer, RHP, UCLA
Churchill: Bauer, also a potential quick-mover like Hultzen, is not a surprise here as the D-backs have been linked to the right-hander for some time. The plus curveball, consistency and 91-95 mph velocity overrule the concerns on workload -- he averaged around 130 pitches per start this season -- and the unconventional throwing program he follows diligently. Rendon may not be strongly considered by Baltimore at No. 4, and the O's are said to be considering righty Dylan Bundy from Owasso HS in Oklahoma.
[h6]Baltimore Orioles [/h6]
Dylan Bundy, RHP, Owasso (Okla.) HS
Churchill: Bundy is a tremendous talent, and despite the lack of ideal size at 6-foot-1 and 190 pounds, he profiles as a No. 1 starter and could hit the big leagues as quickly as many of the college arms in the class. The big fastball -- up to 98 mph -- is just the beginning as he also offers a plus curveball, a potentially useful changeup and a cutter that may be his best secondary offering. He's a workout freak and breaks the mold that scouting director Joe Jordan generally sticks to, but he stays on top of his pitches and is a great competitor. Kansas City has the next pick and it could be Starling or a college arm such as Matt Barnes or Alex Meyer.
[h6]Kansas City Royals[/h6]
Bubba Starling, OF, Garner-Edgerton (Kans.) HS
Churchill: Starling may be the best talent in the class, starting with his plus raw power and tremendous all-around tools. Despite standing 6-foot-4 he profiles well in center thanks to good instincts and perhaps 60 speed on the 20-80 scouting scale. He's drawn comparisons to Josh Hamilton, but may be more like 2009 first-round pick and top prospect Mike Trout. The Royals farm system just added another high-ceiling talent with superstar potential. Plus, he gives Kansas City the one thing its farm system lacks: an impact up-the-middle player.
[h6]Washington Nationals[/h6]
Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice
Churchill: This was the next spot for Rendon to go after Seattle passed on him at No. 2, and it's clear the Nationals went for best player available, ignoring the fact Ryan Zimmerman is one of the best third baseman in baseball and under contract long term. Rendon's injury concerns may or may not have had something to do with the fall, but the Nationals get a hitter here who could join them on the 25-man roster as early as next season. Where he plays in D.C. remains to be seen, but there has been some chatter about him moving to second base. The Nationals' next pick is at 23 and since they were linked to a lot of college players at No. 6, getting Rendon instead may change their efforts later this round.
[h6]Arizona Diamondbacks[/h6]
Archie Bradley, RHP, Broken Arrow (Okla.) HS
Churchill: The Diamondbacks ignored the fact this pick is unprotected after failing to sign Texas A&M's Barret Loux a year ago (he failed a post-draft physical) and took the best player on their board in Bradley. With velocity into the mid-90s and the best curveball among prep arms in the class, the upside is huge for Bradley, and he could end up at the top of the rotation. His college commitment may cost the D-backs here, but it's a gutsy pick and a great move if they get him signed. If they don't sign him, they don't get a compensation pick next year, hence the phrase "unprotected."
[h6]Cleveland Indians[/h6]
Francisco Lindor, SS, Montverde (Fla.) Academy
Churchill: Lindor was considered by Seattle and Arizona, and the Indians get a potential five-tool player who won't turn 18 until November. He's a switch-hitter with pop -- he won the home run derby at the Aflac All-American game last year at age 16 -- and scares opposing coaches from all angles. He's a wizard on defense and projects to not only stick at shortstop but thrive there. The Indians could be in a position to have to trade budding star Asdrubal Cabrera in a few years as he gets more expensive, and now Lindor is set as the successor. The question on Lindor is how real the power is, but scouts generally agree it's above-average relative to the position. Lindor isn't going to be a cheap sign so it appears the Indians are not looking for a slot signing with this pick, which should make Tribe fans happy.
[h6]Chicago Cubs[/h6]
Javier Baez, SS, Arlington Country Day (Jacksonville, Fla.)
Churchill: Baez is one of the best prep bats in the class, with power and a chance to hit for average as well. He played shortstop in high school but is believed to be headed for third base as a pro. The swing is a bit long but there's bat speed to spare and the Cubs are big on upside talent.
[h6]San Diego Padres[/h6]
Cory Spangenberg, 3B, Indian River State College
Churchill: Spangenberg, who player third in college, can run and has a plus hit tool with a chance for some power. This pick is unprotected so the Padres needed a signable player, but if Spangenberg can play up the middle somewhere he's a potential All-Star. He's not expected to play shortstop, his natural position, and doesn't profile to hit for the power generally reserved for third basemen but his athleticism suggests center field is a legitimate option. The Padres called him as a second baseman when they made the pick, so we can assume that's where he will begin his pro career.
[h6]Houston Astros[/h6]
George Springer, OF, UConn
Churchill: Springer came into the season as a potential top-5 pick, but showed some mechanical flaws that have scouts concerned that his swing is not sound and will delay his path to the big leagues. There's plus power and speed and he throws well. There is a chance he plays some center field but he has the arm to move to right, and the bat will play there if he fixes the swing.
[h6]Milwaukee Brewers[/h6]
Taylor Jungmann, RHP, Texas
Churchill: Jungmann has good stuff, sitting 91-95 mph with the fastball and offering two breaking balls of which the slider is the better pitch. He has some delivery concerns -- he throws across his body -- but he's been as consistent as any arm in the country this season and may not need much time in the minors to help the Brewers, and their farm system lacks just about everything. He's big and physical, and could pitch behind Yovani Gallardo and Zack Greinke with No. 2 upside.
[h6]New York Mets[/h6]
Brandon Nimmo, OF, East HS (Cheyenne, Wyo.)
Churchill: Nimmo is a high-upside play here and a refreshing pick for the Mets. He's a good athlete and could hit for plus power down the road, but his left-handed bat profiles to play in a corner outfield spot, where his arm fits, too. Nimmo brings a good work ethic to the table and he squares up fastballs regularly. His lack of competition -- his high school does not have a team -- made it difficult for him to get seen by scouts, but he's found a way to get noticed, including an impressive display on the showcase circuit last summer.
[h6]Florida Marlins[/h6]
Jose Fernandez, RHP, Alonso HS (Tampa, Fla.)
Churchill: The Marlins continue to go upside and get Fernandez, a Cuban defector, who offers a plus fastball into the mid-90s. He's 19 years old but fits the profile of the kind of pitcher The Fish like to work. However, the lack of a polished breaking ball could keep him in the minors for four or five years. It's no shock that the Marlins took a kid from Florida, as they were linked to just about every prep player in the state. Fernandez joins 2009 first-rounder Chad James (a southpaw) in a farm system that has produced pitchers Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco in recent years.
[h6]Milwaukee Brewers[/h6]
Jed Bradley, LHP, Georgia Tech
Churchill: This is a protected pick but the Brewers get another college arm that could hit the big leagues inside of three years. He's a tall southpaw that has touched 97 mph but generally sits 91-94. His breaking ball needs work and his changeup often goes unused, which suggests he could land in the bullpen. He does throw strikes and he has an uncanny ability to avoid the sweet spot of the bat, but his inconsistencies kept him out of the top 10. The Brewers now have two legit rotation candidates out of this draft.
[h6]Los Angeles Dodgers[/h6]
Chris Reed, LHP, Stanford
Churchill: We knew this was going to be a slot pick with the current financial situation in L.A. and Reed was mentioned as a possibility by Law on Sunday and as the favorite here earlier today. There's big league ability here and his changeup and slider are his two best pitches, but this was a pick to make sure they landed a player with probability and signability, rather than upside.
[h6]Los Angeles Angels[/h6]
C.J. Cron, 1B, Utah
Churchill: Cron possesses perhaps the best power tool among college bats in the entire class. A natural catcher, Cron played first base this season due to a shoulder injury, but that is likely where he ends up as a pro. He makes a lot of contact, too, but doesn't generally work the count all that much. He generates leverage and loft consistently and is believed to have a strong enough ability to hit for average that he'll skate through the minors in a couple of seasons. The Halos need bats, and Cron gives them one.
[h6]Oakland Athletics [/h6]
Sonny Gray, RHP, Vanderbilt
Churchill: Gray has terrific stuff and could have gone in the top 10. Because he's 5-foot-11 or maybe 6 feet tall, there are concerns about his durability, but his command and delivery became bigger concerns late this spring. The velocity is firm in the 92-96 mph range and his curveball is already a plus pitch. With Oakland's present starting rotation, the rich project to get richer, though Gray could end up in the bullpen down the line.
[h6]Boston Red Sox[/h6]
Matt Barnes, RHP, UConn
Churchill: The Red Sox getting Barnes here is a coup. He's a potential No. 1 or 2 starter and already possesses a 93-97 mph fastball and potentially plus curveball. He holds his velocity late into games and could get to the majors quickly, especially if he gets his feet wet out of the bullpen. Boston has more picks coming on later this evening, but this is a tremendous start as most didn't believe Barnes would get this far.
[h6]Colorado Rockies [/h6]
Tyler Anderson, LHP, Oregon
Churchill: Anderson lacks the stuff and upside of other available college arms, including Kentucky's Alex Meyer, but he's athletic and polished and could be in the majors by the end of 2012 or early in 2013. He has a funky delivery but also a loose arm and when he commands his fastball he's tough to square up. He has two breaking balls, though both are inconsistent and he generally induced swings and misses from the change in speed more than a sharp, late break. If he can add to one of them -- more likely the curveball since he likes to pitch up in the zone a bit -- and find a better feel for a changeup, he could be a mid-rotation starter. More likely he's a back-end arm or a reliever, but one that helps the Rockies sooner than later.
[h6]Toronto Blue Jays[/h6]
Tyler Beede, RHP, Lawrence Academy (Groton, Mass.)
Churchill: The Blue Jays have extra picks but went with some upside with Beede, who could be a tough sign due to a strong commitment to Vanderbilt. He sits in the low-90s and improved his breaking ball this season, which now profiles as an above-average pitch in time. Toronto took righty Aaron Sanchez last year and now add Beede to its crop of young pitchers. It appears Toronto drafted for value here as many of the top college arms are already off the board, except for Kentucky's Alex Meyer.
[h6]St. Louis Cardinals[/h6]
Kolten Wong, 2B, Hawaii
Churchill: The Cardinals passed on Alex Meyer (the best available college pitcher) and prep arms Taylor Guerrieri and Dillon Howard to take Wong, a second baseman with an above-average hit tool. He lacks power, however, so he comes with limited upside. He's an average runner and an average defender but has good hands and could develop into a plus glove. St. Louis went for probability here rather than best player available.
[h6]Washington Nationals[/h6]
Alex Meyer, RHP, Kentucky
Churchill: They tabbed Rendon at No. 6 and went pitching here with the best available college starter in Meyer. He brings big upside with a plus fastball-slider combo. He's 6-foot-9 and when he keeps his delivery together is dominant and uses the slider to put batters away. There's a chance he's a closer in the future but he holds his velocity well despite some inconsistencies with his command. The Nationals, if we dream for a second, could have four perennial All-Stars out of the past three first rounds in Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper, Rendon and Meyer, with an above-average closer in Drew Storen.
[h6]Tampa Bay Rays[/h6]
Taylor Guerrieri, RHP, Spring Valley HS (Columbia, S.C.)
Churchill: The Rays have 10 of the next 37 picks and certainly didn't go signability here with Guerrieri, who has a commitment to South Carolina. Keith Law ranks him as the No. 3 prep arm in the class, and a scout I spoke to early this season called him a prototypical starter in today's game thanks to a 92-95 mph fastball that has reached 97. His curveball is plus and he's got some athleticism. Tampa got the best player available here, a good start to its busy day.
[h6]San Diego Padres[/h6]
Joe Ross, RHP, Bishop O'Dowd HS (Oakland, Calif.)
Churchill: Ross may have been the best player on the board. He's not as projectable as his brother Tyson -- who pitches for the A's -- was at the same age, but comes with better command and mechanics. Scouts rave about his delivery and arm action, which suggests he's a safe bet to develop his pitches and progress through the minors. San Diego, having tabbed Spangenberg at No. 10, lands a potential No. 2 starter in Ross.
[h6]Boston Red Sox[/h6]
Blake Swihart, C, Cleveland HS (Rio Rancho, N.M.)
Churchill: The Red Sox get perhaps the top catcher in the class in Swihart, though there are some questions about his defense. The tools are there and his bat may play in a corner outfield spot if he can't cut it behind the plate. The Red Sox farm system now has a little bit of everything by adding Swihart, a switch-hitting catcher.
[h6]Cincinnati Reds[/h6]
Robert Stephenson, RHP, Alhambra (Calif.) HS
Churchill: With many of the college arms off the board, the Reds dug into the prep ranks for Stephenson, who touches 94 mph and complements his heater with a promising curveball. There's some effort in his delivery but he's a good athlete and a smart kid on and off the field. His commitment to Washington is strong, but he's considered signable and gives the Reds a young arm with upside.
[h6]Atlanta Braves[/h6]
Sean Gilmartin, LHP, Florida State
Churchill: Gilmartin gets by with average velocity touching the low 90s by relying on an advanced feel for pitching. His changeup is a plus offering but his curveball is soft, prompting some scouts to compare him to Mariners lefty Jason Vargas. In other words, a No. 4 starter. The Braves have Mike Minor, Julio Teheran and Arodys Vizcaino nearing the big leagues, so their pick of Gilmartin was all about drafting a player that would sign for MLB's recommended bonus for this slot.
[h6]San Francisco[/h6]
Joe Panik, SS, St. John's
Churchill: Panik may have to move to second base due to a below-average arm, but projects to hit for some average as he works counts and shows good pitch recognition. There's not much future power in the bat, however, which could make it difficult for him to crack the starting lineup in San Francisco. The Giants appear to have gone for a slot signing here and several players rank ahead of Panik on Law's Top 100.
[h6]Minnesota Twins[/h6]
Levi Michael, SS, North Carolina
Churchill: Michael is the top college shortstop in the class and the Twins may be pairing him with import Tsuyoshi Nishioka in the middle of the infield in a few years. Michael runs well and handles shortstop, but his bat is his best tool and he projects to hit for average and get on base thanks to an ability to use the whole field. The Twins passed on some prep arms but didn't reach for the college pitcher as some expected.
[h6]Tampa Bay Rays[/h6]
Mikie Mahtook, OF, LSU
Churchill: Mahtook's "slide" ends with the Rays, who now have two strong picks with eight remaining tonight. Mahtook can play center field and has a good arm and his power ticked up this season in a strong conference despite the change in bats at the college level. He was generally projected to go in the top 20 and Law had him as high as No. 14 to the Marlins and No. 9 to the Cubs in previous mock drafts. The Rays may have drafted B.J. Upton's replacement, depending on the future status of Desmond Jennings.
[h6]Tampa Bay Rays[/h6]
Jake Hager, SS, Sierra Vista (Nev.) HS
Churchill: The Rays reached here for Hager, a shortstop that most scouts believe needs to go to school and make another run at it in a few years. He's a shortstop with a chance to stay there, but the bat lacks polish and he's merely an adequate overall athlete for the position.
[h6]Texas Rangers[/h6]
Kevin Matthews, LHP, Richmond Hill (Ga.) HS
Churchill: The Rangers dig for Matthews, a left-hander committed to the University of Virginia who may very well choose school, despite a seven-figure bonus in the offing. He's likely a reliever in the future, but he has athleticism and above-average velocity. The Rangers have a pick in the compensation round and may choose to go over slot for the right talent with that selection.
[h6]Pittsburgh Pirates
[/h6]
Gerrit Cole, RHP, UCLA
Churchill: We expected this and Keith Law has been projecting this pick for weeks. I saw him twice and he was so-so both times, but with a plus changeup, big-time velocity up to 100 mph and a promising breaking ball, it's difficult to pass on Cole. The Pirates do not have such a player in their system and the UCLA product could see the big leagues after very little time in the minors. Seattle is looking at Rice third baseman Anthony Rendon here and prep center fielder Bubba Starling is still an outside possibility. I have been told shortstop Francisco Lindor is not the pick for the M's
[h6]Seattle Mariners[/h6]
Danny Hultzen, LHP, Virginia
Churchill: Hultzen is a surprise pick here, as the expectation was Rice third baseman Anthony Rendon or prep center fielder Bubba Starling. Hultzen is expected to move quickly and reach the majors within two years, but he does lack the upside of other college pitchers in the class. He did perform well and has above-average stuff including a 90-94 mph fastball and two above-average off-speed pitches. The rumored asking price was high, but perhaps there was a pre-draft deal in place here or strong indications that Hultzen would sign for what Seattle was willing to spend on the pick. Arizona is likely to tab UCLA right-hander Trevor Bauer at No. 3, but with Rendon still on the board, anything goes from this point forward.
[h6]Arizona Diamondbacks[/h6]
Trevor Bauer, RHP, UCLA
Churchill: Bauer, also a potential quick-mover like Hultzen, is not a surprise here as the D-backs have been linked to the right-hander for some time. The plus curveball, consistency and 91-95 mph velocity overrule the concerns on workload -- he averaged around 130 pitches per start this season -- and the unconventional throwing program he follows diligently. Rendon may not be strongly considered by Baltimore at No. 4, and the O's are said to be considering righty Dylan Bundy from Owasso HS in Oklahoma.
[h6]Baltimore Orioles [/h6]
Dylan Bundy, RHP, Owasso (Okla.) HS
Churchill: Bundy is a tremendous talent, and despite the lack of ideal size at 6-foot-1 and 190 pounds, he profiles as a No. 1 starter and could hit the big leagues as quickly as many of the college arms in the class. The big fastball -- up to 98 mph -- is just the beginning as he also offers a plus curveball, a potentially useful changeup and a cutter that may be his best secondary offering. He's a workout freak and breaks the mold that scouting director Joe Jordan generally sticks to, but he stays on top of his pitches and is a great competitor. Kansas City has the next pick and it could be Starling or a college arm such as Matt Barnes or Alex Meyer.
[h6]Kansas City Royals[/h6]
Bubba Starling, OF, Garner-Edgerton (Kans.) HS
Churchill: Starling may be the best talent in the class, starting with his plus raw power and tremendous all-around tools. Despite standing 6-foot-4 he profiles well in center thanks to good instincts and perhaps 60 speed on the 20-80 scouting scale. He's drawn comparisons to Josh Hamilton, but may be more like 2009 first-round pick and top prospect Mike Trout. The Royals farm system just added another high-ceiling talent with superstar potential. Plus, he gives Kansas City the one thing its farm system lacks: an impact up-the-middle player.
[h6]Washington Nationals[/h6]
Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice
Churchill: This was the next spot for Rendon to go after Seattle passed on him at No. 2, and it's clear the Nationals went for best player available, ignoring the fact Ryan Zimmerman is one of the best third baseman in baseball and under contract long term. Rendon's injury concerns may or may not have had something to do with the fall, but the Nationals get a hitter here who could join them on the 25-man roster as early as next season. Where he plays in D.C. remains to be seen, but there has been some chatter about him moving to second base. The Nationals' next pick is at 23 and since they were linked to a lot of college players at No. 6, getting Rendon instead may change their efforts later this round.
[h6]Arizona Diamondbacks[/h6]
Archie Bradley, RHP, Broken Arrow (Okla.) HS
Churchill: The Diamondbacks ignored the fact this pick is unprotected after failing to sign Texas A&M's Barret Loux a year ago (he failed a post-draft physical) and took the best player on their board in Bradley. With velocity into the mid-90s and the best curveball among prep arms in the class, the upside is huge for Bradley, and he could end up at the top of the rotation. His college commitment may cost the D-backs here, but it's a gutsy pick and a great move if they get him signed. If they don't sign him, they don't get a compensation pick next year, hence the phrase "unprotected."
[h6]Cleveland Indians[/h6]
Francisco Lindor, SS, Montverde (Fla.) Academy
Churchill: Lindor was considered by Seattle and Arizona, and the Indians get a potential five-tool player who won't turn 18 until November. He's a switch-hitter with pop -- he won the home run derby at the Aflac All-American game last year at age 16 -- and scares opposing coaches from all angles. He's a wizard on defense and projects to not only stick at shortstop but thrive there. The Indians could be in a position to have to trade budding star Asdrubal Cabrera in a few years as he gets more expensive, and now Lindor is set as the successor. The question on Lindor is how real the power is, but scouts generally agree it's above-average relative to the position. Lindor isn't going to be a cheap sign so it appears the Indians are not looking for a slot signing with this pick, which should make Tribe fans happy.
[h6]Chicago Cubs[/h6]
Javier Baez, SS, Arlington Country Day (Jacksonville, Fla.)
Churchill: Baez is one of the best prep bats in the class, with power and a chance to hit for average as well. He played shortstop in high school but is believed to be headed for third base as a pro. The swing is a bit long but there's bat speed to spare and the Cubs are big on upside talent.
[h6]San Diego Padres[/h6]
Cory Spangenberg, 3B, Indian River State College
Churchill: Spangenberg, who player third in college, can run and has a plus hit tool with a chance for some power. This pick is unprotected so the Padres needed a signable player, but if Spangenberg can play up the middle somewhere he's a potential All-Star. He's not expected to play shortstop, his natural position, and doesn't profile to hit for the power generally reserved for third basemen but his athleticism suggests center field is a legitimate option. The Padres called him as a second baseman when they made the pick, so we can assume that's where he will begin his pro career.
[h6]Houston Astros[/h6]
George Springer, OF, UConn
Churchill: Springer came into the season as a potential top-5 pick, but showed some mechanical flaws that have scouts concerned that his swing is not sound and will delay his path to the big leagues. There's plus power and speed and he throws well. There is a chance he plays some center field but he has the arm to move to right, and the bat will play there if he fixes the swing.
[h6]Milwaukee Brewers[/h6]
Taylor Jungmann, RHP, Texas
Churchill: Jungmann has good stuff, sitting 91-95 mph with the fastball and offering two breaking balls of which the slider is the better pitch. He has some delivery concerns -- he throws across his body -- but he's been as consistent as any arm in the country this season and may not need much time in the minors to help the Brewers, and their farm system lacks just about everything. He's big and physical, and could pitch behind Yovani Gallardo and Zack Greinke with No. 2 upside.
[h6]New York Mets[/h6]
Brandon Nimmo, OF, East HS (Cheyenne, Wyo.)
Churchill: Nimmo is a high-upside play here and a refreshing pick for the Mets. He's a good athlete and could hit for plus power down the road, but his left-handed bat profiles to play in a corner outfield spot, where his arm fits, too. Nimmo brings a good work ethic to the table and he squares up fastballs regularly. His lack of competition -- his high school does not have a team -- made it difficult for him to get seen by scouts, but he's found a way to get noticed, including an impressive display on the showcase circuit last summer.
[h6]Florida Marlins[/h6]
Jose Fernandez, RHP, Alonso HS (Tampa, Fla.)
Churchill: The Marlins continue to go upside and get Fernandez, a Cuban defector, who offers a plus fastball into the mid-90s. He's 19 years old but fits the profile of the kind of pitcher The Fish like to work. However, the lack of a polished breaking ball could keep him in the minors for four or five years. It's no shock that the Marlins took a kid from Florida, as they were linked to just about every prep player in the state. Fernandez joins 2009 first-rounder Chad James (a southpaw) in a farm system that has produced pitchers Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco in recent years.
[h6]Milwaukee Brewers[/h6]
Jed Bradley, LHP, Georgia Tech
Churchill: This is a protected pick but the Brewers get another college arm that could hit the big leagues inside of three years. He's a tall southpaw that has touched 97 mph but generally sits 91-94. His breaking ball needs work and his changeup often goes unused, which suggests he could land in the bullpen. He does throw strikes and he has an uncanny ability to avoid the sweet spot of the bat, but his inconsistencies kept him out of the top 10. The Brewers now have two legit rotation candidates out of this draft.
[h6]Los Angeles Dodgers[/h6]
Chris Reed, LHP, Stanford
Churchill: We knew this was going to be a slot pick with the current financial situation in L.A. and Reed was mentioned as a possibility by Law on Sunday and as the favorite here earlier today. There's big league ability here and his changeup and slider are his two best pitches, but this was a pick to make sure they landed a player with probability and signability, rather than upside.
[h6]Los Angeles Angels[/h6]
C.J. Cron, 1B, Utah
Churchill: Cron possesses perhaps the best power tool among college bats in the entire class. A natural catcher, Cron played first base this season due to a shoulder injury, but that is likely where he ends up as a pro. He makes a lot of contact, too, but doesn't generally work the count all that much. He generates leverage and loft consistently and is believed to have a strong enough ability to hit for average that he'll skate through the minors in a couple of seasons. The Halos need bats, and Cron gives them one.
[h6]Oakland Athletics [/h6]
Sonny Gray, RHP, Vanderbilt
Churchill: Gray has terrific stuff and could have gone in the top 10. Because he's 5-foot-11 or maybe 6 feet tall, there are concerns about his durability, but his command and delivery became bigger concerns late this spring. The velocity is firm in the 92-96 mph range and his curveball is already a plus pitch. With Oakland's present starting rotation, the rich project to get richer, though Gray could end up in the bullpen down the line.
[h6]Boston Red Sox[/h6]
Matt Barnes, RHP, UConn
Churchill: The Red Sox getting Barnes here is a coup. He's a potential No. 1 or 2 starter and already possesses a 93-97 mph fastball and potentially plus curveball. He holds his velocity late into games and could get to the majors quickly, especially if he gets his feet wet out of the bullpen. Boston has more picks coming on later this evening, but this is a tremendous start as most didn't believe Barnes would get this far.
[h6]Colorado Rockies [/h6]
Tyler Anderson, LHP, Oregon
Churchill: Anderson lacks the stuff and upside of other available college arms, including Kentucky's Alex Meyer, but he's athletic and polished and could be in the majors by the end of 2012 or early in 2013. He has a funky delivery but also a loose arm and when he commands his fastball he's tough to square up. He has two breaking balls, though both are inconsistent and he generally induced swings and misses from the change in speed more than a sharp, late break. If he can add to one of them -- more likely the curveball since he likes to pitch up in the zone a bit -- and find a better feel for a changeup, he could be a mid-rotation starter. More likely he's a back-end arm or a reliever, but one that helps the Rockies sooner than later.
[h6]Toronto Blue Jays[/h6]
Tyler Beede, RHP, Lawrence Academy (Groton, Mass.)
Churchill: The Blue Jays have extra picks but went with some upside with Beede, who could be a tough sign due to a strong commitment to Vanderbilt. He sits in the low-90s and improved his breaking ball this season, which now profiles as an above-average pitch in time. Toronto took righty Aaron Sanchez last year and now add Beede to its crop of young pitchers. It appears Toronto drafted for value here as many of the top college arms are already off the board, except for Kentucky's Alex Meyer.
[h6]St. Louis Cardinals[/h6]
Kolten Wong, 2B, Hawaii
Churchill: The Cardinals passed on Alex Meyer (the best available college pitcher) and prep arms Taylor Guerrieri and Dillon Howard to take Wong, a second baseman with an above-average hit tool. He lacks power, however, so he comes with limited upside. He's an average runner and an average defender but has good hands and could develop into a plus glove. St. Louis went for probability here rather than best player available.
[h6]Washington Nationals[/h6]
Alex Meyer, RHP, Kentucky
Churchill: They tabbed Rendon at No. 6 and went pitching here with the best available college starter in Meyer. He brings big upside with a plus fastball-slider combo. He's 6-foot-9 and when he keeps his delivery together is dominant and uses the slider to put batters away. There's a chance he's a closer in the future but he holds his velocity well despite some inconsistencies with his command. The Nationals, if we dream for a second, could have four perennial All-Stars out of the past three first rounds in Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper, Rendon and Meyer, with an above-average closer in Drew Storen.
[h6]Tampa Bay Rays[/h6]
Taylor Guerrieri, RHP, Spring Valley HS (Columbia, S.C.)
Churchill: The Rays have 10 of the next 37 picks and certainly didn't go signability here with Guerrieri, who has a commitment to South Carolina. Keith Law ranks him as the No. 3 prep arm in the class, and a scout I spoke to early this season called him a prototypical starter in today's game thanks to a 92-95 mph fastball that has reached 97. His curveball is plus and he's got some athleticism. Tampa got the best player available here, a good start to its busy day.
[h6]San Diego Padres[/h6]
Joe Ross, RHP, Bishop O'Dowd HS (Oakland, Calif.)
Churchill: Ross may have been the best player on the board. He's not as projectable as his brother Tyson -- who pitches for the A's -- was at the same age, but comes with better command and mechanics. Scouts rave about his delivery and arm action, which suggests he's a safe bet to develop his pitches and progress through the minors. San Diego, having tabbed Spangenberg at No. 10, lands a potential No. 2 starter in Ross.
[h6]Boston Red Sox[/h6]
Blake Swihart, C, Cleveland HS (Rio Rancho, N.M.)
Churchill: The Red Sox get perhaps the top catcher in the class in Swihart, though there are some questions about his defense. The tools are there and his bat may play in a corner outfield spot if he can't cut it behind the plate. The Red Sox farm system now has a little bit of everything by adding Swihart, a switch-hitting catcher.
[h6]Cincinnati Reds[/h6]
Robert Stephenson, RHP, Alhambra (Calif.) HS
Churchill: With many of the college arms off the board, the Reds dug into the prep ranks for Stephenson, who touches 94 mph and complements his heater with a promising curveball. There's some effort in his delivery but he's a good athlete and a smart kid on and off the field. His commitment to Washington is strong, but he's considered signable and gives the Reds a young arm with upside.
[h6]Atlanta Braves[/h6]
Sean Gilmartin, LHP, Florida State
Churchill: Gilmartin gets by with average velocity touching the low 90s by relying on an advanced feel for pitching. His changeup is a plus offering but his curveball is soft, prompting some scouts to compare him to Mariners lefty Jason Vargas. In other words, a No. 4 starter. The Braves have Mike Minor, Julio Teheran and Arodys Vizcaino nearing the big leagues, so their pick of Gilmartin was all about drafting a player that would sign for MLB's recommended bonus for this slot.
[h6]San Francisco[/h6]
Joe Panik, SS, St. John's
Churchill: Panik may have to move to second base due to a below-average arm, but projects to hit for some average as he works counts and shows good pitch recognition. There's not much future power in the bat, however, which could make it difficult for him to crack the starting lineup in San Francisco. The Giants appear to have gone for a slot signing here and several players rank ahead of Panik on Law's Top 100.
[h6]Minnesota Twins[/h6]
Levi Michael, SS, North Carolina
Churchill: Michael is the top college shortstop in the class and the Twins may be pairing him with import Tsuyoshi Nishioka in the middle of the infield in a few years. Michael runs well and handles shortstop, but his bat is his best tool and he projects to hit for average and get on base thanks to an ability to use the whole field. The Twins passed on some prep arms but didn't reach for the college pitcher as some expected.
[h6]Tampa Bay Rays[/h6]
Mikie Mahtook, OF, LSU
Churchill: Mahtook's "slide" ends with the Rays, who now have two strong picks with eight remaining tonight. Mahtook can play center field and has a good arm and his power ticked up this season in a strong conference despite the change in bats at the college level. He was generally projected to go in the top 20 and Law had him as high as No. 14 to the Marlins and No. 9 to the Cubs in previous mock drafts. The Rays may have drafted B.J. Upton's replacement, depending on the future status of Desmond Jennings.
[h6]Tampa Bay Rays[/h6]
Jake Hager, SS, Sierra Vista (Nev.) HS
Churchill: The Rays reached here for Hager, a shortstop that most scouts believe needs to go to school and make another run at it in a few years. He's a shortstop with a chance to stay there, but the bat lacks polish and he's merely an adequate overall athlete for the position.
[h6]Texas Rangers[/h6]
Kevin Matthews, LHP, Richmond Hill (Ga.) HS
Churchill: The Rangers dig for Matthews, a left-hander committed to the University of Virginia who may very well choose school, despite a seven-figure bonus in the offing. He's likely a reliever in the future, but he has athleticism and above-average velocity. The Rangers have a pick in the compensation round and may choose to go over slot for the right talent with that selection.
Analysis of the compensation round.
Spoiler [+]
Picks 34 through 38
The Nationals, at No. 34, get Brian Goodwin, an athletic outfielder with plus speed and the ability to square up line drives and even hit for some power. ... The Red Sox's pick of prep lefty Henry Owens is another strong selection for the club. Owens is projectable and might have front-line upside. ... The Rangers get the toolsy Zach Cone, who has yet to turn his physical skills into baseball performance. ... Tampa's selection of Brandon Martin adds another potential future shortstop to its system along with Tim Beckham and first-round pick Jake Hager. ... Toronto, at No. 35, reached for Jacob Anderson, but the team has several picks Monday and there is some upside in the outfielder's right-handed bat.
Picks 39 through 43
The Phillies love toolsy players but their top pick two years in a row has been off that trend. Larry Greene has plus power and should be adequate in a corner outfield spot. He's considered an easy sign. ... Jackie Bradley could be the next All-Star center fielder in Boston, and might have gone in the top 20 had it not been for an injury and some stuggles at the plate this spring. ... The Rays get Tyler Goeddel, who profiles better in the outfield than at third base, but there's some upside at the plate, including the potential for above-average power. ... Jeff Ames is a junior college kid with some upside, and at 6-foot-4 and 225 pounds, he has the size to profile in the rotation for the Rays. ... Andrew Chafin, who returned from Tommy John surgery to have a strong season, could be a mid-rotation starter and adds to the crop of legitimate pitching prospects the D-backs have added on Day 1.
Picks 44 through 48
Michael Fulmer gives the Mets another prep kid, but his fastball velocity -- up to 96 mph -- might make him a difficult sign with his commitment to Arkansas. Daniel Norris is still available at this point but might want more than the Mets want to spend, despite the belief that they'd be willing to go over slot at 44. ... Trevor Story, who has a commitment to LSU, could be a tough sign for the Rockies, but he is a solid defender at shortstop and has some strength to offer at the plate, although the questions about the hit tool remain. ... Joe Musgrove gives the Jays a big right-hander with a heavy sinker and a solid delivery, but he currently lacks a breaking ball. ... Keenyn Walker is an upside play for the White Sox and can switch hit with some raw pop. ... Michael Kelly is a projectable right-hander the Padres can pair with first-rounder Joe Ross down the line.
Picks 49 through 53
The Giants go back to the prep ranks after adding a college infielder in the first round. Kyle Crick is a solid, mid-rotation candidate with a plus fastball, but his secondary stuff needs work and he might be a long-term project. ... The Twins get a solid bat in Travis Harrison. He has power and had a chance to go in Round 1, but fell likely because his future is at first base. ... The Yankees added Dante Bichette, whose father of the same name played in the big leagues. He has good makeup and is a future outfielder with a strong arm and some power potential. The hit tool is a question, however. ... Blake Snell is a projectable lefty who touched 94 mph late this spring and is considered a signable player, hence his selection a little higher than his grades suggest. The Rays, however, love the Pacific Northwest, having taken Josh Sale and Drew Vettleson out of the area last spring. ... Dwight Smith, the son of former Cubs outfielder Dwight Smith Sr., is stronger than his father and might have more natural power. He profiles as a left fielder.
Picks 54 through 60
Brett Austin has a solid swing from both sides and a decent chance to stick at catcher for San Diego. He's athletic, so the outfield is also a possibility. ... The Twins get Hudson Boyd, who has touched the mid-90s with his fastball, and he's shown a feel for a slurvy breaking ball that is above average when he stays on top of it. Many believe he's a reliever in the end. ... Kes Carter is among the top smaller-college talents in the country, has some tools and profiles well defensively in a corner outfield spot. The Rays could afford to take a chance on his upside with their plethora of picks. ... The Jays snagged Kevin Comer, a Vanderbilt commit who might be tough to sign. He sits in the 90-93 mph range with his fastball and throws both a slider and curveball, but his command is below average. ... The Padres went for a college shortstop in Jace Peterson, but scouts worry about his ability to hit for average going forward, and the power grades below average. ... At No. 59, the Rays get Grayson Garvin, a 6-foot-6 left-hander with some projection left and a strong recent track record of progress and performance. ... With their 10th pick of the day, the Rays complete the sandwich round by selecting James Harris, an athletic outfielder from the Bay Area. He has all the tools, including above-average bat speed, but is considered raw at the plate. The Rays, considering they couldn't come in and spend $30 million on their first-day picks, have done well to spread out their selections among upside talent in filling gaps in their farm system.
The Nationals, at No. 34, get Brian Goodwin, an athletic outfielder with plus speed and the ability to square up line drives and even hit for some power. ... The Red Sox's pick of prep lefty Henry Owens is another strong selection for the club. Owens is projectable and might have front-line upside. ... The Rangers get the toolsy Zach Cone, who has yet to turn his physical skills into baseball performance. ... Tampa's selection of Brandon Martin adds another potential future shortstop to its system along with Tim Beckham and first-round pick Jake Hager. ... Toronto, at No. 35, reached for Jacob Anderson, but the team has several picks Monday and there is some upside in the outfielder's right-handed bat.
Picks 39 through 43
The Phillies love toolsy players but their top pick two years in a row has been off that trend. Larry Greene has plus power and should be adequate in a corner outfield spot. He's considered an easy sign. ... Jackie Bradley could be the next All-Star center fielder in Boston, and might have gone in the top 20 had it not been for an injury and some stuggles at the plate this spring. ... The Rays get Tyler Goeddel, who profiles better in the outfield than at third base, but there's some upside at the plate, including the potential for above-average power. ... Jeff Ames is a junior college kid with some upside, and at 6-foot-4 and 225 pounds, he has the size to profile in the rotation for the Rays. ... Andrew Chafin, who returned from Tommy John surgery to have a strong season, could be a mid-rotation starter and adds to the crop of legitimate pitching prospects the D-backs have added on Day 1.
Picks 44 through 48
Michael Fulmer gives the Mets another prep kid, but his fastball velocity -- up to 96 mph -- might make him a difficult sign with his commitment to Arkansas. Daniel Norris is still available at this point but might want more than the Mets want to spend, despite the belief that they'd be willing to go over slot at 44. ... Trevor Story, who has a commitment to LSU, could be a tough sign for the Rockies, but he is a solid defender at shortstop and has some strength to offer at the plate, although the questions about the hit tool remain. ... Joe Musgrove gives the Jays a big right-hander with a heavy sinker and a solid delivery, but he currently lacks a breaking ball. ... Keenyn Walker is an upside play for the White Sox and can switch hit with some raw pop. ... Michael Kelly is a projectable right-hander the Padres can pair with first-rounder Joe Ross down the line.
Picks 49 through 53
The Giants go back to the prep ranks after adding a college infielder in the first round. Kyle Crick is a solid, mid-rotation candidate with a plus fastball, but his secondary stuff needs work and he might be a long-term project. ... The Twins get a solid bat in Travis Harrison. He has power and had a chance to go in Round 1, but fell likely because his future is at first base. ... The Yankees added Dante Bichette, whose father of the same name played in the big leagues. He has good makeup and is a future outfielder with a strong arm and some power potential. The hit tool is a question, however. ... Blake Snell is a projectable lefty who touched 94 mph late this spring and is considered a signable player, hence his selection a little higher than his grades suggest. The Rays, however, love the Pacific Northwest, having taken Josh Sale and Drew Vettleson out of the area last spring. ... Dwight Smith, the son of former Cubs outfielder Dwight Smith Sr., is stronger than his father and might have more natural power. He profiles as a left fielder.
Picks 54 through 60
Brett Austin has a solid swing from both sides and a decent chance to stick at catcher for San Diego. He's athletic, so the outfield is also a possibility. ... The Twins get Hudson Boyd, who has touched the mid-90s with his fastball, and he's shown a feel for a slurvy breaking ball that is above average when he stays on top of it. Many believe he's a reliever in the end. ... Kes Carter is among the top smaller-college talents in the country, has some tools and profiles well defensively in a corner outfield spot. The Rays could afford to take a chance on his upside with their plethora of picks. ... The Jays snagged Kevin Comer, a Vanderbilt commit who might be tough to sign. He sits in the 90-93 mph range with his fastball and throws both a slider and curveball, but his command is below average. ... The Padres went for a college shortstop in Jace Peterson, but scouts worry about his ability to hit for average going forward, and the power grades below average. ... At No. 59, the Rays get Grayson Garvin, a 6-foot-6 left-hander with some projection left and a strong recent track record of progress and performance. ... With their 10th pick of the day, the Rays complete the sandwich round by selecting James Harris, an athletic outfielder from the Bay Area. He has all the tools, including above-average bat speed, but is considered raw at the plate. The Rays, considering they couldn't come in and spend $30 million on their first-day picks, have done well to spread out their selections among upside talent in filling gaps in their farm system.
Seven days rest theory.
Spoiler [+]
Trevor Bauer's 3-1 win over Fresno State on Saturday looked no different than any of his other starts this year. The UCLA right-hander fanned 14 batters, walked two, yielded just six hits, hiked his season record to 13-2, dropped his ERA to 1.25 and tallied his ninth straight complete game. The skinny 20-year-old flashed another number, though, that was right in line with his season average, one that has MLB draft hounds wincing even as Bauer looks ready to be a top-10 pick: 133 pitches.
The rise in pitch count awareness across all levels of baseball makes people panic when they see a college pitcher racking up 130-plus pitches per start; doubly so when the guy doing it skews much closer to Tim Lincecum than Roger Clemens at 6-foot-1, and only 175 pounds. But Bauer's situation is different. He pitches just once a week, taking the mound every Saturday for the Bruins. Meanwhile, the benefits to his team are huge: Every Saturday, UCLA knows it has one of the nation's best pitchers ready to go nine innings and give the bullpen a day off.
All of which makes us wonder: Why doesn't a major league team try that? Mostly because it's hard, and looks risky.
"The team trainer and pitching coach have to know the pitcher's quality of strength, quality of conditioning, what kind of a workload he can handle," said Glenn Fleisig, research director for the American Sports Medicine Institute and an expert in pitching biomechanics. "You have to choose the right guy, then monitor him very closely."
Nobody knows his body better than Bauer, and he has shown a unique ability to carry the burden of a heavy workload while at UCLA. He's a rabid student of pitching, learning the value of pitch sequencing, as well as effective velocity (a pitch looks faster when released a couple of feet closer to home plate, making a long-striding delivery and big arm extension advantages for pitchers who can pull it off). Like Lincecum, Bauer relies on flexibility and athleticism more than brute strength to generate velocity and movement on his pitches. He works out with medicine balls and resistance bands, and steers clear of the weight room.
"Bauer is trained to do this," said UCLA manager John Savage, "this" referring both to his pitcher's unique workout habits and his ability to throw complete games nearly at will. "He can handle the baseball better than anyone. You'll see him playing Hacky Sack with a baseball like it's connected to his toe. I compare him to Pete Maravich."
If anyone would know about developing elite pitchers, it's Savage. Another Savage pupil, Bauer's teammate Gerrit Cole, is likely to be the No. 1 overall pick in Monday night's draft. Another Savage protege, Mark Prior, held the Pac-10 strikeout record for a decade with 202 K's … until Bauer rang up his 203rd batter of the season Saturday.
Not just any pitcher can successfully adopt the Bauer model of 130 pitches once a week, Savage said. Using Inside Edge's statistical analysis, Savage found that Bauer's fastball velocity often increased in the later innings of games; you'd want a big league pitcher to show a similar tendency, or at least maintain similar velocity throughout his start. The other thing that helps Bauer go deep into games is his six-pitch repertoire. Even the third or fourth time through the lineup, opposing hitters still don't know what they'll see from Bauer. If a pitcher can't throw that many pitches for strikes, he'd better have one pitch -- think Mariano Rivera's cutter -- that hitters might know is coming but still can't hit.
A pitcher able and willing to take on the Bauer model of pitching could help his team in multiple ways. Giving the bullpen a night off once a week would not only keep relievers fresher, but also allow a team to lean more heavily on its better arms the rest of the week, with less risk of shoving lesser pitchers into high-leverage situations. An open-minded team with weak back-end starters could get even more creative. Assuming a now-typical seven-man major league bullpen, that team could limit starts for its crummy fifth starter and run out, say, three rested relievers for three innings each, every fifth day.
Many caveats apply, though.
Since the last few major league teams transitioned from four-man to five-man rotations in the 1980s, we've seen very little experimentation with that model. Any team that tried to break the mold would face heavy scrutiny, and any manager who tried something radically different would need a general manager willing to back his decision. Also, even the best pitchers have a bad day once in a while; a manager might have to occasionally pull his once-a-week ace, both to give his team a better chance to win and to avoid a lousy day turning into a 180-pitch nightmare.
Then there are salary considerations, which already contribute to managers leaving in struggling starters through five innings, and using closers only in save situations. Would a starting pitcher embrace a system that might limit him to 26 starts a season, giving him fewer opportunities to win games? Or would teams worry that a system which encourages a pitcher to throw 20-plus complete games a season might lead to higher asking prices during salary arbitration and free agency discussions?
The biggest concern would be managing workload and preventing injuries. A starter who throws 26 nine-inning starts in a season would total 234 innings, around what aces like Roy Halladay and CC Sabathia typically produce already. Would spacing out those innings differently make injuries more likely? More broadly, are five-man rotations the best way to handle a pitching staff?
"There's no science or medicine that says every fifth day is the answer -- it's really just trial and error over the years," Fleisig said. "Pitch counts shouldn't be used as a rule, either, but rather as a guide for when a guy might be running out of steam. There's no rule that says you can't try things, no rule that says every team has to do the same thing."
What you want to watch, Fleisig said, are microtears. Every time a pitcher pitches, a weekend warrior goes for a three-mile run, or a bodybuilder bench-presses, he develops soreness -- the body's way of alerting you to little tears in your ligaments and tendons. The body recovers, repairs those tears, and gets stronger between workouts, or in a pitcher's case, between starts. If you work out too hard, you can develop tears too big to repair. But there's no rule that says that point should be 100 pitches, Fleisig said; some pitchers might need to be pulled earlier; others a lot later.
Savage closely tracks each inning Bauer throws, looking for high-stress innings or even high-stress batters who potentially create the kind of fatigue that could prove harmful down the road. So far, pushing to 130 pitches or more hasn't resulted in injuries or ineffectiveness for Bauer.
That might be doable for certain big league pitchers too, Fleisig said. "You could get those microtears from 130 pitches and be good to go five, six, or seven days later, sure."
But?
"With some guys, 130 pitches might take you well past the point of fatigue. You develop tears that are too big. After that, you can wait five, 10, 20, even 100 days and still not be recovered."
If fortune really does favor the bold, maybe we'll see a major league team go this route one day. Who knows? Maybe the guy who'll make it work will be the prototype: Trevor Bauer himself.
The rise in pitch count awareness across all levels of baseball makes people panic when they see a college pitcher racking up 130-plus pitches per start; doubly so when the guy doing it skews much closer to Tim Lincecum than Roger Clemens at 6-foot-1, and only 175 pounds. But Bauer's situation is different. He pitches just once a week, taking the mound every Saturday for the Bruins. Meanwhile, the benefits to his team are huge: Every Saturday, UCLA knows it has one of the nation's best pitchers ready to go nine innings and give the bullpen a day off.
All of which makes us wonder: Why doesn't a major league team try that? Mostly because it's hard, and looks risky.
"The team trainer and pitching coach have to know the pitcher's quality of strength, quality of conditioning, what kind of a workload he can handle," said Glenn Fleisig, research director for the American Sports Medicine Institute and an expert in pitching biomechanics. "You have to choose the right guy, then monitor him very closely."
Nobody knows his body better than Bauer, and he has shown a unique ability to carry the burden of a heavy workload while at UCLA. He's a rabid student of pitching, learning the value of pitch sequencing, as well as effective velocity (a pitch looks faster when released a couple of feet closer to home plate, making a long-striding delivery and big arm extension advantages for pitchers who can pull it off). Like Lincecum, Bauer relies on flexibility and athleticism more than brute strength to generate velocity and movement on his pitches. He works out with medicine balls and resistance bands, and steers clear of the weight room.
"Bauer is trained to do this," said UCLA manager John Savage, "this" referring both to his pitcher's unique workout habits and his ability to throw complete games nearly at will. "He can handle the baseball better than anyone. You'll see him playing Hacky Sack with a baseball like it's connected to his toe. I compare him to Pete Maravich."
If anyone would know about developing elite pitchers, it's Savage. Another Savage pupil, Bauer's teammate Gerrit Cole, is likely to be the No. 1 overall pick in Monday night's draft. Another Savage protege, Mark Prior, held the Pac-10 strikeout record for a decade with 202 K's … until Bauer rang up his 203rd batter of the season Saturday.
Not just any pitcher can successfully adopt the Bauer model of 130 pitches once a week, Savage said. Using Inside Edge's statistical analysis, Savage found that Bauer's fastball velocity often increased in the later innings of games; you'd want a big league pitcher to show a similar tendency, or at least maintain similar velocity throughout his start. The other thing that helps Bauer go deep into games is his six-pitch repertoire. Even the third or fourth time through the lineup, opposing hitters still don't know what they'll see from Bauer. If a pitcher can't throw that many pitches for strikes, he'd better have one pitch -- think Mariano Rivera's cutter -- that hitters might know is coming but still can't hit.
A pitcher able and willing to take on the Bauer model of pitching could help his team in multiple ways. Giving the bullpen a night off once a week would not only keep relievers fresher, but also allow a team to lean more heavily on its better arms the rest of the week, with less risk of shoving lesser pitchers into high-leverage situations. An open-minded team with weak back-end starters could get even more creative. Assuming a now-typical seven-man major league bullpen, that team could limit starts for its crummy fifth starter and run out, say, three rested relievers for three innings each, every fifth day.
Many caveats apply, though.
Since the last few major league teams transitioned from four-man to five-man rotations in the 1980s, we've seen very little experimentation with that model. Any team that tried to break the mold would face heavy scrutiny, and any manager who tried something radically different would need a general manager willing to back his decision. Also, even the best pitchers have a bad day once in a while; a manager might have to occasionally pull his once-a-week ace, both to give his team a better chance to win and to avoid a lousy day turning into a 180-pitch nightmare.
Then there are salary considerations, which already contribute to managers leaving in struggling starters through five innings, and using closers only in save situations. Would a starting pitcher embrace a system that might limit him to 26 starts a season, giving him fewer opportunities to win games? Or would teams worry that a system which encourages a pitcher to throw 20-plus complete games a season might lead to higher asking prices during salary arbitration and free agency discussions?
The biggest concern would be managing workload and preventing injuries. A starter who throws 26 nine-inning starts in a season would total 234 innings, around what aces like Roy Halladay and CC Sabathia typically produce already. Would spacing out those innings differently make injuries more likely? More broadly, are five-man rotations the best way to handle a pitching staff?
"There's no science or medicine that says every fifth day is the answer -- it's really just trial and error over the years," Fleisig said. "Pitch counts shouldn't be used as a rule, either, but rather as a guide for when a guy might be running out of steam. There's no rule that says you can't try things, no rule that says every team has to do the same thing."
What you want to watch, Fleisig said, are microtears. Every time a pitcher pitches, a weekend warrior goes for a three-mile run, or a bodybuilder bench-presses, he develops soreness -- the body's way of alerting you to little tears in your ligaments and tendons. The body recovers, repairs those tears, and gets stronger between workouts, or in a pitcher's case, between starts. If you work out too hard, you can develop tears too big to repair. But there's no rule that says that point should be 100 pitches, Fleisig said; some pitchers might need to be pulled earlier; others a lot later.
Savage closely tracks each inning Bauer throws, looking for high-stress innings or even high-stress batters who potentially create the kind of fatigue that could prove harmful down the road. So far, pushing to 130 pitches or more hasn't resulted in injuries or ineffectiveness for Bauer.
That might be doable for certain big league pitchers too, Fleisig said. "You could get those microtears from 130 pitches and be good to go five, six, or seven days later, sure."
But?
"With some guys, 130 pitches might take you well past the point of fatigue. You develop tears that are too big. After that, you can wait five, 10, 20, even 100 days and still not be recovered."
If fortune really does favor the bold, maybe we'll see a major league team go this route one day. Who knows? Maybe the guy who'll make it work will be the prototype: Trevor Bauer himself.
The Freak II
Spoiler [+]
A word of advice: See this kid now. See him while he's still double-hopping across the front of the mound to throw the first warmup pitch of every inning as hard as he can. See him while he's still free to play catch at 380 feet -- nearly foul pole to foul pole -- while singing along to the music in his headphones. See him while he's still playing Hacky Sack with the baseball as part of his pregame routine and wearing a bleached-out, three-year-old, salt-and-sweat-stained cap and not the pristine alternate version his big league team mandates for road Fridays. See him before the codes and constraints of professional baseball squeeze every last one of his idiosyncrasies into conformity.
Dustin Snipes for ESPN The MagazineBauer ended his season with a streak of nine consecutive complete games.
You've never seen anything like UCLA junior righthander Trevor Bauer. He throws a seemingly endless variety of pitches. He subscribes to several theories of pitching and training that challenge baseball's established ideas of how to develop and maintain a hurler. He is statistically the best college pitcher in the country, a surefire top-10 pick in the amateur draft, a ridiculously talented 20-year-old with a 95 mph fastball whose main fault -- yes, fault -- seems to be that he has an arsenal of pitches that nobody in amateur baseball can hit.
So why can't many of baseball's decision-makers, those stoic guardians of the status quo, shake the queasy feeling they get from Bauer? Why would a major league front office exec, watching Bauer strike out 15 Oregon State hitters one week after striking out 17 at Stanford, say, "With the stuff he has, I've got to wonder why he has to throw so many pitches to put away college hitters." True, Bauer averages roughly 130 pitches per start, but is it his fault that he has swing-and-miss stuff and rarely gets the benefit of outs on the first or second pitch of an at-bat?
By the statistical measures that portend professional success, Bauer is the best pitcher on the board for the June 6 first-year player draft. He leads the country in strikeouts with 203 in 136 2/3 innings and had a 1.25 ERA in the Pac-10, one of college baseball's toughest conferences. His name has been on a steady rise up draft boards, from potential first-rounder at the beginning of the year to potential top five in June. Yet this kid, the most dominant college pitcher since Stephen Strasburg, whose style and stuff evoke legitimate comparisons to Tim Lincecum -- isn't even in the mix to be the top pick. Why not? It seems baseball still doesn't know how to handle guys who march to their own drum.
Here's a story: During one of Bauer's three years at Hart High in Valencia, Calif., before he left for UCLA halfway through his senior year because he was too mature to deal with another semester of high school silliness, he had an off-season routine of taking a bucket of baseballs to a local park to throw long toss as part of his arm-strengthening regimen. He walked to the park alone because he couldn't find anyone to throw with him. "I didn't have any friends," he says with the emotion of someone reading a grocery list. He threw baseballs from one side of the park to the other, each ball smacking a wooden fence surrounding a tennis court. He did this for close to a year, until a tennis coach decided to hold lessons on that court while Bauer did his throwing.
This was a problem. The tennis coach told him to stop. He refused. The tennis coach sent a letter to his baseball coach, who suggested Bauer stop. He refused. He told his coach, "Sorry if I wasn't taught to be blindingly allegiant to authority."
But that wasn't Bauer's main gripe with the tennis coach. The letter to the baseball coach included the phrase, "The unexpected repetitiveness of the ball hitting the fence." This upset Bauer's sense of order. His eyes widen, his voice rises. "How could something be repetitive and unexpected at the same time?" he asks. "If it's repetitive, don't you come to expect it?"
Enter the world of Trevor Bauer, where nothing is taken at face value.
He is a devotee of the teachings of Perry Husband, a former hitting coach who devised a theory of pitch sequencing called Effective Velocity. EV is complicated -- Husband calls it "the theory of relativity but with baseball" -- but it relies on a pitcher's ability to make each pitch look the same for the first 20 feet, at which point a hitter has to decide to swing. The deception relies on a pitcher's throwing each pitch through the same "tunnel." Bauer was not content to merely understand the concept of tunnels; he wanted to put it into practice.
[+] Enlarge
Crystal LoGiudice/US PresswireBauer helped lead the Bruins to the 2010 College World Series as a sophomore, and he was even more dominant as a junior.
According to Husband's research, a normal strike zone, when extrapolated to 20 feet from a pitcher's release point, measures 13 inches by 10 inches. So Trevor and his father, Warren, an engineer, built a metal contraption with a 13 by 10 opening. It is placed 20 feet from the mound, and Bauer throws bullpen sessions through it. In theory, each pitch that travels through the Bauers' homemade tunnel will not only be a strike but will also look the same beyond the point where the hitter must decide to swing. "I call them the Bauer Engineering Crew," says Ron Wolforth, the director of the Texas Baseball Ranch, the training academy where Trevor has spent many summers. "The stuff they do isn't in any manual. It's Effective Velocity 501."
It's not enough for Bauer to execute a pitch. He has to understand it, dissect it, improve upon it. He has to turn it sideways tilt his head and examine it from all angles. Performance is simply a by-product of process. UCLA coach John Savage calls him the Mad Scientist of Pitching. Wolforth, who clocked Bauer at 102.7 mph last summer, says, "Trevor always has a million questions. Some of them are ethereal, but they're all insightful." Alan Jaeger, whose long-toss program is part of Bauer's training, says, "He pitches with the wisdom of Greg Maddux at 33."
Bauer entered UCLA at 17 as an engineering student but has changed majors to computer science, and he leaves nothing to chance. For instance: Believing he needed a pitch that would run away from lefthanded hitters, Trevor invented a "reverse slider," which differs from a screwball in that it's thrown 87 to 88 mph, about 10 mph faster than a screwball.
For many baseball executives, evaluating Bauer is a blind leap into the unknown. Subscribing to his regimen is almost like a dare. One scout watched Bauer run over the mound to fire his first between-inning warmup pitch and said, "He's got great stuff, but I'm not Freud."
Bauer's atypical approach will likely scare off certain high-picking clubs -- such as the Pirates and Royals -- that prefer pitchers who fit the traditional archetype. Of course, it's that kind of logic that caused Lincecum to fall to the Giants at No. 10 in the 2006 draft. Bauer's response to the critics is typically direct: "Just let me do my thing, and I'll be good for a long time. When I meet with some baseball people, I see their eyes glaze over when I try to explain what I'm doing. It's like I'm a heretic going against the Church of Baseball."
And yet, the results are impossible to ignore, even for some of the highest-ranking members of the game's clergy. Start by start, inning by inning, batter by batter and pitch by pitch, Bauer has given them reasons to believe.
Sometimes, even heretics win converts.
Dustin Snipes for ESPN The MagazineBauer ended his season with a streak of nine consecutive complete games.
You've never seen anything like UCLA junior righthander Trevor Bauer. He throws a seemingly endless variety of pitches. He subscribes to several theories of pitching and training that challenge baseball's established ideas of how to develop and maintain a hurler. He is statistically the best college pitcher in the country, a surefire top-10 pick in the amateur draft, a ridiculously talented 20-year-old with a 95 mph fastball whose main fault -- yes, fault -- seems to be that he has an arsenal of pitches that nobody in amateur baseball can hit.
So why can't many of baseball's decision-makers, those stoic guardians of the status quo, shake the queasy feeling they get from Bauer? Why would a major league front office exec, watching Bauer strike out 15 Oregon State hitters one week after striking out 17 at Stanford, say, "With the stuff he has, I've got to wonder why he has to throw so many pitches to put away college hitters." True, Bauer averages roughly 130 pitches per start, but is it his fault that he has swing-and-miss stuff and rarely gets the benefit of outs on the first or second pitch of an at-bat?
By the statistical measures that portend professional success, Bauer is the best pitcher on the board for the June 6 first-year player draft. He leads the country in strikeouts with 203 in 136 2/3 innings and had a 1.25 ERA in the Pac-10, one of college baseball's toughest conferences. His name has been on a steady rise up draft boards, from potential first-rounder at the beginning of the year to potential top five in June. Yet this kid, the most dominant college pitcher since Stephen Strasburg, whose style and stuff evoke legitimate comparisons to Tim Lincecum -- isn't even in the mix to be the top pick. Why not? It seems baseball still doesn't know how to handle guys who march to their own drum.
Here's a story: During one of Bauer's three years at Hart High in Valencia, Calif., before he left for UCLA halfway through his senior year because he was too mature to deal with another semester of high school silliness, he had an off-season routine of taking a bucket of baseballs to a local park to throw long toss as part of his arm-strengthening regimen. He walked to the park alone because he couldn't find anyone to throw with him. "I didn't have any friends," he says with the emotion of someone reading a grocery list. He threw baseballs from one side of the park to the other, each ball smacking a wooden fence surrounding a tennis court. He did this for close to a year, until a tennis coach decided to hold lessons on that court while Bauer did his throwing.
This was a problem. The tennis coach told him to stop. He refused. The tennis coach sent a letter to his baseball coach, who suggested Bauer stop. He refused. He told his coach, "Sorry if I wasn't taught to be blindingly allegiant to authority."
But that wasn't Bauer's main gripe with the tennis coach. The letter to the baseball coach included the phrase, "The unexpected repetitiveness of the ball hitting the fence." This upset Bauer's sense of order. His eyes widen, his voice rises. "How could something be repetitive and unexpected at the same time?" he asks. "If it's repetitive, don't you come to expect it?"
Enter the world of Trevor Bauer, where nothing is taken at face value.
He is a devotee of the teachings of Perry Husband, a former hitting coach who devised a theory of pitch sequencing called Effective Velocity. EV is complicated -- Husband calls it "the theory of relativity but with baseball" -- but it relies on a pitcher's ability to make each pitch look the same for the first 20 feet, at which point a hitter has to decide to swing. The deception relies on a pitcher's throwing each pitch through the same "tunnel." Bauer was not content to merely understand the concept of tunnels; he wanted to put it into practice.
[+] Enlarge
Crystal LoGiudice/US PresswireBauer helped lead the Bruins to the 2010 College World Series as a sophomore, and he was even more dominant as a junior.
According to Husband's research, a normal strike zone, when extrapolated to 20 feet from a pitcher's release point, measures 13 inches by 10 inches. So Trevor and his father, Warren, an engineer, built a metal contraption with a 13 by 10 opening. It is placed 20 feet from the mound, and Bauer throws bullpen sessions through it. In theory, each pitch that travels through the Bauers' homemade tunnel will not only be a strike but will also look the same beyond the point where the hitter must decide to swing. "I call them the Bauer Engineering Crew," says Ron Wolforth, the director of the Texas Baseball Ranch, the training academy where Trevor has spent many summers. "The stuff they do isn't in any manual. It's Effective Velocity 501."
It's not enough for Bauer to execute a pitch. He has to understand it, dissect it, improve upon it. He has to turn it sideways tilt his head and examine it from all angles. Performance is simply a by-product of process. UCLA coach John Savage calls him the Mad Scientist of Pitching. Wolforth, who clocked Bauer at 102.7 mph last summer, says, "Trevor always has a million questions. Some of them are ethereal, but they're all insightful." Alan Jaeger, whose long-toss program is part of Bauer's training, says, "He pitches with the wisdom of Greg Maddux at 33."
Bauer entered UCLA at 17 as an engineering student but has changed majors to computer science, and he leaves nothing to chance. For instance: Believing he needed a pitch that would run away from lefthanded hitters, Trevor invented a "reverse slider," which differs from a screwball in that it's thrown 87 to 88 mph, about 10 mph faster than a screwball.
For many baseball executives, evaluating Bauer is a blind leap into the unknown. Subscribing to his regimen is almost like a dare. One scout watched Bauer run over the mound to fire his first between-inning warmup pitch and said, "He's got great stuff, but I'm not Freud."
Bauer's atypical approach will likely scare off certain high-picking clubs -- such as the Pirates and Royals -- that prefer pitchers who fit the traditional archetype. Of course, it's that kind of logic that caused Lincecum to fall to the Giants at No. 10 in the 2006 draft. Bauer's response to the critics is typically direct: "Just let me do my thing, and I'll be good for a long time. When I meet with some baseball people, I see their eyes glaze over when I try to explain what I'm doing. It's like I'm a heretic going against the Church of Baseball."
And yet, the results are impossible to ignore, even for some of the highest-ranking members of the game's clergy. Start by start, inning by inning, batter by batter and pitch by pitch, Bauer has given them reasons to believe.
Sometimes, even heretics win converts.
Washington rebuilding.
Spoiler [+]
The best way to judge a draft is to look back, rather than forward, because with the benefit of hindsight, we know now that the Joe Mauer was definitely the right choice over Mark Prior, and that Tampa Bay's extraordinary record for drafting and developing would be even more impressive had the Rays chosen Buster Posey over Tim Beckham.
Getty ImagesRendon's bat is close to ready, where he'll play isn't locked in.
By looking back, we know that the teams that have most closely adhered to the slot recommendations of the commissioner's office in the past -- the Astros, Padres and Mets, for example -- have had some of the worst farm systems. This is why Justin Verlander pitches for the Tigers, rather than in Petco Park.
But it's always interesting to wonder, immediately after the picks are made, how drafts will impact the bigger picture in the years ahead. Some thoughts:
1. We don't yet know exactly what Washington's plans for Anthony Rendon are, but right after the Nationals took the guy widely considered to be the best hitter in the draft, there was immediate speculation in rival front offices that he could be shifted to second base. Indeed, some of the other teams that had looked at Rendon viewed him as a second baseman in the future, because of his body type and because of the shoulder issues he's had this spring. There is debate about how much power he'll hit for, and about whether he can stay healthy -- but there is not any question, some executives say, about whether or not he's going to hit at the big league level.
Mike Rizzo says within this Dave Sheinin piece that the Nationals think third base is Rendon's best position "right now."
Which means: Stay tuned.
Rendon and the two other Washington picks on Day 1 were Scott Boras clients. Stephen Strasburg is a Boras client, and so is Bryce Harper, and so is Jayson Werth. So little wonder that there is growing industry speculation that Prince Fielder could be a target of the Nationals in the fall, when he becomes a free agent.
What follows is speculation: Imagine what the 2013 Washington Opening Day lineup could look like, if Rendon is moved to second base, Danny Espinosa is switched to shortstop (a move that some advance scouts believe should happen) and Ian Desmond becomes a Mark DeRosa-like super utility guy:
CF TBD
RF Bryce Harper
3B Ryan Zimmerman
1B Prince Fielder
LF Jayson Werth
2B Anthony Rendon
C Wilson Ramos
SS Danny Espinosa
P Stephen Strasburg
Little wonder that some of the Braves players chatted the other day, as they looked ahead toward the draft, about how Washington is stockpiling an enormous cache of talent and could be a team to be reckoned with very, very soon.
By the way: Harper blew a kiss to a pitcher after hitting a home run, writes Reid Cherner. From the video that's included in this piece, it looks like the pitcher who gave up the home run wasn't thrilled that Harper stood and watched his home run and stared Harper down, and Harper responded.
2. The Diamondbacks had two picks among the first seven and took one guy who could help them this year, Trevor Bauer, and one guy who could help them in years to come, in Archie Bradley. Bauer has had a heavy workload this spring and the Diamondbacks will measure his innings count very carefully for the rest of the calendar year, but Arizona has a chance to win; if Bauer shows he can help at the big league level in a very precise and limited role, they will let him do that.
From Nick Piecoro's story:
"They were saying this is a guy with the body of (Tim) Lincecum, the stuff of (Roy) Oswalt and the mind of (Greg) Maddux," Diamondbacks CEO Derrick Hall said.
Kevin Towers is making the right moves for the Diamondbacks, writes Scott Bordow.
3. The Seattle Mariners took Danny Hultzen with their No. 2 pick. The Mariners weren't sure, in their internal evaluations, whether Rendon's strengths as a hitter would be mitigated by Safeco Field. On the other hand, they do know that the skills of a pitcher as polished as Hultzen could be enhanced by their home field. The Mariners wanted Hultzen for a long time, writes Jerry Brewer.
4. The Tampa Bay Rays began their Herschel Walker draft and loved their haul, starting with Taylor Guerrieri, as Marc Topkin writes; he throws really, really hard, as Joey Johnston writes.
5. The Brewers are gathering momentum in the NL Central chase, and it's possible that their No. 1 pick, Taylor Jungmann, could help them this year. Milwaukee grabbed a couple of pitchers in the first round, a badly needed injection of talent for their minors. Jungmann could be a bullpen piece in 2011. "It was not part of the discussion while drafting him," Brewers GM Doug Melvin wrote in an email, "but you never know."
6. Some executives think Dylan Bundy is the greatest pure talent in the draft, and now the Orioles can look to a day when their rotation might include Brian Matusz, Zach Britton and Bundy. (By the way: Buck Showalter raised some eyebrows by mentioning Monday that Matusz may never regain his velocity).
7. The Pirates continue to stockpile pitching.
[h3]More draft links[/h3]
• The Jays took some guys who might be tough to sign. It was a wait-and-see approach, writes Richard Griffin.
• Gerrit Cole was the first player taken, as Gary Klein writes.
• The Cardinals' pick is undersized, they acknowledge.
• The Royals took a local kid, after Dylan Bundy was taken one pick before they selected. This could be the start of something big for Starling.
• The Phillies' No. 1 pick recently lost his mother, as John Finger writes.
• The Rockies drafted an Oregon pitcher.
• The Red Sox took a UConn pitcher with their first choice, as Michael Silverman writes.
• The Padres seemingly had a really good day, as Bill Center writes.
• Oakland drafted a Vanderbilt guy, and its full intention is to use Sonny Gray as a starting pitcher, and not a reliever.
• The Giants drafted a shortstop, writes John Shea.
• The Braves drafted a lefty.
• The Astros took an outfielder.
• The Twins took a North Carolina shortstop, writes Phil Miller.
• The Reds took a high school pitcher, writes Jim Fay.
• The White Sox grabbed an outfielder.
• The Indians took an athletic shortstop, writes Terry Pluto.
• The Mets took a high school kid.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Few teams have declared themselves as sellers, but as Oakland's injuries keep mounting, the Athletics move in that direction; Oakland has dropped seven straight games, and with Brett Anderson going down, Oakland now has lost four starting pitchers in the past three weeks. This could accelerate the possible exodus of parts like Grant Balfour (who might be a perfect fit for Texas) or Josh Willingham (at a time when a lot of clubs are looking to add a bat, like the Phillies or Braves). Kevin Kouzmanoff was sent to Triple-A.
• The Cubs' situation is awful right now, with the losses mounting -- on Monday, they lost their seventh consecutive game -- and manager Mike Quade feeling compelled to meet with Carlos Zambrano. Look, it's not a big deal that Zambrano said the team's play is embarrassing, a general statement of frustration, but the fact that he directly questioned Carlos Marmol's pitch selection is, in itself, embarrassing. Can you imagine how Zambrano would react if his teammates publicly ripped the choices he made in his starts, or his execution? They could maintain a filibuster in Congress, if they chose. But they don't do it because they know it's wrong and counterproductive. Zambrano doesn't know what the big deal is.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Rockies ran out a new-look lineup, as Troy Renck writes.
2. Ichiro was used as a designated hitter, again.
3. Chris Narveson will stay in the Milwaukee rotation.
4. The Twins are using Ben Revere in right field, as La Velle Neal writes.
5. The Dodgers called up Dee Gordon, son of Tom Gordon.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Brad Lidge had a setback, but Jimmy Rollins seems to be improving.
2. Jason Kendall took batting practice.
3. Dexter Fowler is hurting.
4. Jake Peavy is dealing with a mild groin strain.
5. Matt Harrison is dealing with a kidney stone.
6. Scott Rolen has strep throat.
[h3]Monday's games[/h3]
1. The Phillies are hurting, but they hung on to beat the Dodgers, as David Murphy writes.
2. The Giants just keep winning one-run games, and along the way, Tim Lincecum racked up his 1,000th strikeout.
From Elias: Tim Lincecum had five strikeouts Monday to push his career total to 1,000. He became the eighth major league pitcher since 1900 to record 1,000 strikeouts within his first five seasons. That's been done in modern major league history by Grover Cleveland Alexander (1911-15), Tom Seaver (1967-71), Bert Blyleven (1970-74), Mark Langston (1984-8, Dwight Gooden (1984-8, Hideo Nomo (1995-99) and Kerry Wood (1998-2003). Wood missed the entire 1999 season. And of the pitchers who faced the fewest batters en route to 1,000 K's since 1900:
Billy Wagner: 3,022
Octavio Dotel: 3,478
Kerry Wood: 3,609
Tim Lincecum: 3,692
Trevor Hoffman: 3,759
3. David Price was The Man for the Rays, writes Marc Topkin.
4. Brennan Boesch got to some high fastballs from Colby Lewis, as ESPN Stats & Information details: Three of Boesch's hits and both of his home runs came on pitches up in the zone. Entering Monday, Boesch had just one home run on high pitches in his career. Both of his home runs Monday were on Colby Lewis fastballs clocked at 88 mph. His only other home run on a high pitch entering Monday was also on a sub-90 mph fastball. Before Monday, that was 917 pitches seen up, with one homer, and on Monday, he saw seven pitches up and hit two home runs.
5. Zack Greinke shut down the Marlins, and the Brewers just keep on winning on the road, as Tom Haudricourt writes. From ESPN Stats & Info, how Greinke beat the Marlins:
• Marlins hitters were 1-for-14 in at-bats ending with a Greinke off-speed pitch. Greinke kept his off-speed pitches low, with 47 of his 51 (92.2 percent) down in the zone or below it, his highest percentage in a start in the past three seasons. The Marlins struck out four times against a Greinke off-speed pitch and put 10 in play, seven of which they hit on the ground.
• All four of Greinke's off-speed strikeouts were with his slider, and all 25 of the sliders he threw were down in the zone. The Marlins chased 11 of Greinke's sliders out of the zone, the second-highest total against Greinke in the past three seasons. The highest was in Greinke's previous start, when the Reds chased 13 sliders out of the zone.
6. The Marlins got swept.
7. Eric Hosmer got a big hit.
8. The Mariners got shut down.
9. The Twins won again.
10. The Indians lost again.
11. The Padres had their bubble burst.
12. John Danks won for the first time this season, as Mark Gonzales writes.
13. Colby Lewis got pummeled.
14. Jonny Gomes and the Reds had a really good day.
Getty ImagesRendon's bat is close to ready, where he'll play isn't locked in.
By looking back, we know that the teams that have most closely adhered to the slot recommendations of the commissioner's office in the past -- the Astros, Padres and Mets, for example -- have had some of the worst farm systems. This is why Justin Verlander pitches for the Tigers, rather than in Petco Park.
But it's always interesting to wonder, immediately after the picks are made, how drafts will impact the bigger picture in the years ahead. Some thoughts:
1. We don't yet know exactly what Washington's plans for Anthony Rendon are, but right after the Nationals took the guy widely considered to be the best hitter in the draft, there was immediate speculation in rival front offices that he could be shifted to second base. Indeed, some of the other teams that had looked at Rendon viewed him as a second baseman in the future, because of his body type and because of the shoulder issues he's had this spring. There is debate about how much power he'll hit for, and about whether he can stay healthy -- but there is not any question, some executives say, about whether or not he's going to hit at the big league level.
Mike Rizzo says within this Dave Sheinin piece that the Nationals think third base is Rendon's best position "right now."
Which means: Stay tuned.
Rendon and the two other Washington picks on Day 1 were Scott Boras clients. Stephen Strasburg is a Boras client, and so is Bryce Harper, and so is Jayson Werth. So little wonder that there is growing industry speculation that Prince Fielder could be a target of the Nationals in the fall, when he becomes a free agent.
What follows is speculation: Imagine what the 2013 Washington Opening Day lineup could look like, if Rendon is moved to second base, Danny Espinosa is switched to shortstop (a move that some advance scouts believe should happen) and Ian Desmond becomes a Mark DeRosa-like super utility guy:
CF TBD
RF Bryce Harper
3B Ryan Zimmerman
1B Prince Fielder
LF Jayson Werth
2B Anthony Rendon
C Wilson Ramos
SS Danny Espinosa
P Stephen Strasburg
Little wonder that some of the Braves players chatted the other day, as they looked ahead toward the draft, about how Washington is stockpiling an enormous cache of talent and could be a team to be reckoned with very, very soon.
By the way: Harper blew a kiss to a pitcher after hitting a home run, writes Reid Cherner. From the video that's included in this piece, it looks like the pitcher who gave up the home run wasn't thrilled that Harper stood and watched his home run and stared Harper down, and Harper responded.
2. The Diamondbacks had two picks among the first seven and took one guy who could help them this year, Trevor Bauer, and one guy who could help them in years to come, in Archie Bradley. Bauer has had a heavy workload this spring and the Diamondbacks will measure his innings count very carefully for the rest of the calendar year, but Arizona has a chance to win; if Bauer shows he can help at the big league level in a very precise and limited role, they will let him do that.
From Nick Piecoro's story:
"They were saying this is a guy with the body of (Tim) Lincecum, the stuff of (Roy) Oswalt and the mind of (Greg) Maddux," Diamondbacks CEO Derrick Hall said.
Kevin Towers is making the right moves for the Diamondbacks, writes Scott Bordow.
3. The Seattle Mariners took Danny Hultzen with their No. 2 pick. The Mariners weren't sure, in their internal evaluations, whether Rendon's strengths as a hitter would be mitigated by Safeco Field. On the other hand, they do know that the skills of a pitcher as polished as Hultzen could be enhanced by their home field. The Mariners wanted Hultzen for a long time, writes Jerry Brewer.
4. The Tampa Bay Rays began their Herschel Walker draft and loved their haul, starting with Taylor Guerrieri, as Marc Topkin writes; he throws really, really hard, as Joey Johnston writes.
5. The Brewers are gathering momentum in the NL Central chase, and it's possible that their No. 1 pick, Taylor Jungmann, could help them this year. Milwaukee grabbed a couple of pitchers in the first round, a badly needed injection of talent for their minors. Jungmann could be a bullpen piece in 2011. "It was not part of the discussion while drafting him," Brewers GM Doug Melvin wrote in an email, "but you never know."
6. Some executives think Dylan Bundy is the greatest pure talent in the draft, and now the Orioles can look to a day when their rotation might include Brian Matusz, Zach Britton and Bundy. (By the way: Buck Showalter raised some eyebrows by mentioning Monday that Matusz may never regain his velocity).
7. The Pirates continue to stockpile pitching.
[h3]More draft links[/h3]
• The Jays took some guys who might be tough to sign. It was a wait-and-see approach, writes Richard Griffin.
• Gerrit Cole was the first player taken, as Gary Klein writes.
• The Cardinals' pick is undersized, they acknowledge.
• The Royals took a local kid, after Dylan Bundy was taken one pick before they selected. This could be the start of something big for Starling.
• The Phillies' No. 1 pick recently lost his mother, as John Finger writes.
• The Rockies drafted an Oregon pitcher.
• The Red Sox took a UConn pitcher with their first choice, as Michael Silverman writes.
• The Padres seemingly had a really good day, as Bill Center writes.
• Oakland drafted a Vanderbilt guy, and its full intention is to use Sonny Gray as a starting pitcher, and not a reliever.
• The Giants drafted a shortstop, writes John Shea.
• The Braves drafted a lefty.
• The Astros took an outfielder.
• The Twins took a North Carolina shortstop, writes Phil Miller.
• The Reds took a high school pitcher, writes Jim Fay.
• The White Sox grabbed an outfielder.
• The Indians took an athletic shortstop, writes Terry Pluto.
• The Mets took a high school kid.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Few teams have declared themselves as sellers, but as Oakland's injuries keep mounting, the Athletics move in that direction; Oakland has dropped seven straight games, and with Brett Anderson going down, Oakland now has lost four starting pitchers in the past three weeks. This could accelerate the possible exodus of parts like Grant Balfour (who might be a perfect fit for Texas) or Josh Willingham (at a time when a lot of clubs are looking to add a bat, like the Phillies or Braves). Kevin Kouzmanoff was sent to Triple-A.
• The Cubs' situation is awful right now, with the losses mounting -- on Monday, they lost their seventh consecutive game -- and manager Mike Quade feeling compelled to meet with Carlos Zambrano. Look, it's not a big deal that Zambrano said the team's play is embarrassing, a general statement of frustration, but the fact that he directly questioned Carlos Marmol's pitch selection is, in itself, embarrassing. Can you imagine how Zambrano would react if his teammates publicly ripped the choices he made in his starts, or his execution? They could maintain a filibuster in Congress, if they chose. But they don't do it because they know it's wrong and counterproductive. Zambrano doesn't know what the big deal is.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Rockies ran out a new-look lineup, as Troy Renck writes.
2. Ichiro was used as a designated hitter, again.
3. Chris Narveson will stay in the Milwaukee rotation.
4. The Twins are using Ben Revere in right field, as La Velle Neal writes.
5. The Dodgers called up Dee Gordon, son of Tom Gordon.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Brad Lidge had a setback, but Jimmy Rollins seems to be improving.
2. Jason Kendall took batting practice.
3. Dexter Fowler is hurting.
4. Jake Peavy is dealing with a mild groin strain.
5. Matt Harrison is dealing with a kidney stone.
6. Scott Rolen has strep throat.
[h3]Monday's games[/h3]
1. The Phillies are hurting, but they hung on to beat the Dodgers, as David Murphy writes.
2. The Giants just keep winning one-run games, and along the way, Tim Lincecum racked up his 1,000th strikeout.
From Elias: Tim Lincecum had five strikeouts Monday to push his career total to 1,000. He became the eighth major league pitcher since 1900 to record 1,000 strikeouts within his first five seasons. That's been done in modern major league history by Grover Cleveland Alexander (1911-15), Tom Seaver (1967-71), Bert Blyleven (1970-74), Mark Langston (1984-8
, Dwight Gooden (1984-8, Hideo Nomo (1995-99) and Kerry Wood (1998-2003). Wood missed the entire 1999 season. And of the pitchers who faced the fewest batters en route to 1,000 K's since 1900:Billy Wagner: 3,022
Octavio Dotel: 3,478
Kerry Wood: 3,609
Tim Lincecum: 3,692
Trevor Hoffman: 3,759
3. David Price was The Man for the Rays, writes Marc Topkin.
4. Brennan Boesch got to some high fastballs from Colby Lewis, as ESPN Stats & Information details: Three of Boesch's hits and both of his home runs came on pitches up in the zone. Entering Monday, Boesch had just one home run on high pitches in his career. Both of his home runs Monday were on Colby Lewis fastballs clocked at 88 mph. His only other home run on a high pitch entering Monday was also on a sub-90 mph fastball. Before Monday, that was 917 pitches seen up, with one homer, and on Monday, he saw seven pitches up and hit two home runs.
5. Zack Greinke shut down the Marlins, and the Brewers just keep on winning on the road, as Tom Haudricourt writes. From ESPN Stats & Info, how Greinke beat the Marlins:
• Marlins hitters were 1-for-14 in at-bats ending with a Greinke off-speed pitch. Greinke kept his off-speed pitches low, with 47 of his 51 (92.2 percent) down in the zone or below it, his highest percentage in a start in the past three seasons. The Marlins struck out four times against a Greinke off-speed pitch and put 10 in play, seven of which they hit on the ground.
• All four of Greinke's off-speed strikeouts were with his slider, and all 25 of the sliders he threw were down in the zone. The Marlins chased 11 of Greinke's sliders out of the zone, the second-highest total against Greinke in the past three seasons. The highest was in Greinke's previous start, when the Reds chased 13 sliders out of the zone.
6. The Marlins got swept.
7. Eric Hosmer got a big hit.
8. The Mariners got shut down.
9. The Twins won again.
10. The Indians lost again.
11. The Padres had their bubble burst.
12. John Danks won for the first time this season, as Mark Gonzales writes.
13. Colby Lewis got pummeled.
14. Jonny Gomes and the Reds had a really good day.
Rumors.
Spoiler [+]
http://[h3]Another day at DH for Ichiro[/h3]
10:37AM ET
[h5]Ichiro Suzuki | Mariners [/h5]
Ichiro Suzuki served as the designated hitter for the second time in less than a week on Monday, but Mariners manager Eric Wedge insists it is not a trend.
"First and foremost, it's just to get him off his feet," Wedge said via the Seattle Times. "We're still in the middle of this stretch here, trying to spread out and give guys some time off."
Ichiro has just 12 hits in 71 at-bats (.169 average) dating to May 19. The move also enabled Wedge to get both Greg Halman and Mike Wilson starts in the field against lefties. Ichiro is likely to return to right field Tuesday when the M's face White Sox righty Philip Humber.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Could Bauer be promoted this season?[/h3]
10:14AM ET
[h5]Arizona Diamondbacks [/h5]
The Arizona Diamondbacks already have a farm system that boasts pitching depth, and the talent pool got even deeper Monday when they selected UCLA right-hander Trevor Bauer with the No. 3 pick and Oklahoma high school right-hander Archie Bradley at No. 7.
Bauer is known for his unconventional approach (check out this piece by ESPN The Magazine's Tim Keown), but Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic says the D-backs won't try to change his long-tossing habits, nor will they alter his approach to pitching or his six-pitch repertoire.
Bauer has a solid chance of cracking the Diamondbacks rotation sometime next season, but our Buster Olney says there is a possibility of a quicker call-up under the right circumstances:
- Doug Mittler
[h5]Buster Olney[/h5]
Quick promotion for Bauer?
10:37AM ET
[h5]Ichiro Suzuki | Mariners [/h5]
Ichiro Suzuki served as the designated hitter for the second time in less than a week on Monday, but Mariners manager Eric Wedge insists it is not a trend.
"First and foremost, it's just to get him off his feet," Wedge said via the Seattle Times. "We're still in the middle of this stretch here, trying to spread out and give guys some time off."
Ichiro has just 12 hits in 71 at-bats (.169 average) dating to May 19. The move also enabled Wedge to get both Greg Halman and Mike Wilson starts in the field against lefties. Ichiro is likely to return to right field Tuesday when the M's face White Sox righty Philip Humber.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Could Bauer be promoted this season?[/h3]
10:14AM ET
[h5]Arizona Diamondbacks [/h5]
The Arizona Diamondbacks already have a farm system that boasts pitching depth, and the talent pool got even deeper Monday when they selected UCLA right-hander Trevor Bauer with the No. 3 pick and Oklahoma high school right-hander Archie Bradley at No. 7.
Bauer is known for his unconventional approach (check out this piece by ESPN The Magazine's Tim Keown), but Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic says the D-backs won't try to change his long-tossing habits, nor will they alter his approach to pitching or his six-pitch repertoire.
Bauer has a solid chance of cracking the Diamondbacks rotation sometime next season, but our Buster Olney says there is a possibility of a quicker call-up under the right circumstances:
- Doug Mittler
Quick promotion for Bauer?
9:50AM ET
[h5]Prince Fielder | Brewers [/h5]
Many teams run for the hills when it comes to dealing with Scott Boras, but the super agent doesn't scare away the Washington Nationals. Monday's draft was another example, adding to speculation that the Nats could be a serious player for Brewers first baseman Prince Fielder this fall.
ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney connects the dots in Tuesday's blog after the Nats selected Rice third baseman Anthony Rendon, a Boras client, on Monday night. Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper, two other Day One picks, are represented by Boras, as are Jayson Werth and Fielder.
Olney says there is "growing industry speculation" that Fielder could be a target of the Nats, in part because they are comfortable dealing with Boras. One thought: if Werth could get $126 million, what is Fielder's price tag?
Last week, we mentioned the Orioles as a team that could have interest in Fielder.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Another setback for Lidge[/h3]
9:21AM ET
[h5]Brad Lidge | Phillies [/h5]
It's a good thing for the Phillies that Ryan Madson has comfortably moved into the closer's role. Injured closer Brad Lidge suffered yet another setback Monday, pushing back the timetable for a return.
General manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said Lidge had elbow soreness while throwing a bullpen session in Florida. Lidge will return to Philadelphia to be examined by team doctor Michael Ciccotti.
Lidge, who has yet to pitch this season, is on the 60-day disabled list with a torn rotator cuff.
If the Phillies do seek bullpen help at the deadline, it would likely be for middle relief. Madson has converted all 13 of his save opportunities and has finally earned the confidence of manager Charlie Manuel.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Speedy return for Hanley?[/h3]
8:55AM ET
[h5]Hanley Ramirez | Marlins [/h5]
UPDATE: Hanley Ramirez finally landed on the disabled list and is eligible to be reinstated June 14. Monday was the most confident Ramirez has sounded about a speedy return.
Ramirez says he likely won't need any rehab games, but that may depend on how he feels over the next week. In the meantime, Emilio Bonifacio remains the starting shortstop.
--
We have a plausible explanation for the dramatic fall in production this season by Hanley Ramirez, and it may result in the first-ever trip to the disabled list for the Florida Marlins shortstop.
Manny Navarro of the Miami Herald reports Ramirez, barring a miraculous recovery, is headed to the disabled list. Ramirez has not played in a week because of continued stiffness in his lower back that forced him to leave last Sunday's game in Los Angeles.
Ramirez told Juan C. Rodriguez of the Sun-Sentinel that he's felt discomfort for about a month, adding that it was the worst pain he ever experienced.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28877/emilio-bonifacioEmilio Bonifacio has started at shortstop in place of Ramirez.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Making room for Mazzaro[/h3]
8:38AM ET
[h5]Vin Mazzaro | Royals [/h5]
When we last saw Vin Mazzaro in a big league uniform, the righthander was enduring a public flogging courtesy of the Cleveland Indians. Mazzaro was tagged for 14 runs over 2 1/3 innings on May 16 and the Royals promptly shipped him to Triple-A Omaha.
Mazzaro has seemingly worked out his problems in the minors and will be recalled in time to face the Blue Jays on Tuesday night. The Royals did not announce a corresponding move to clear space for Mazzaro, but the Kansas City Star says they seem likely to option reliever Jesse Chavez to Omaha.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]A step forward for Kendall[/h3]
8:28AM ET
[h5]Jason Kendall | Royals [/h5]
The Kansas City Royals still have no concrete timetable on a return for Jason Kendall, but the veteran catcher took a step forward Monday when he took batting practice for the first time since undergoing shoulder surgery.
If things proceed as planned, Kendall should be ready to head out on a rehab assignment by the end of the month, manager Ned Yost tells the Kansas City Star.
The 36-year-old Kendall is the final year of a two-year, $6 million deal, so he may be in his final months with the organization. Matt Treanor and Brayan Pena have shared the catching duties in Kendall's absence.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Scutaro completes rehab stint[/h3]
8:08AM ET
[h5]Marco Scutaro | Red Sox [/h5]
UPDATE: Scutaro completed a rehab stint Monday and is expected to the join the Red Sox in time for Tuesday's game against the Yankees. Righthander Scott Atchison will be sent back to Pawtucket to make room for Scutaro, who was 5-for-11 in three games for the PawSox.
--
Veteran infielder Marco Scutaro will start a rehab assignment for Triple-A Pawtucket Saturday, and could be activated from the disabled list sometime within a week, reports the Boston Globe.
But how much Scutaro will play once he returns remains to be seen. Jed Lowrie is hitting .304/.349/.406 and is handling shortstop defensively. Furthermore, one of Scutaro's potential advantages -- his ability to hit left-handed pitching as a pure right-handed hitter -- is of no advantage in the end, with the switch-hitting Lowrie hitting .431/.443/.690 versus southpaws.
Scutaro has flashed well above-average defense at shortstop in the past, but at 35 those days may be behind him. He could instead serve as a utility reserve, spelling Lowrie, Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis around the infield.
- Jason A. Churchill
http://[h3]Johnson not close to a promotion[/h3]
7:55AM ET
[h5]Nick Johnson | Indians [/h5]
Nick Johnson was in the Indians' clubhouse before Monday night's game against the Twins, but that doesn't mean the veteran first baseman is close to a big league call-up, manager Manny Acta tells MLB.com.
The injury-plagued Johnson, who has played in all of 24 games last season, was signed in early March and has played in a pair of games at Double-A Akron. He is headed for Triple-A Columbus and Acta wants him to get plenty of at-bats before any decision is made on a promotion.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Pettitte happy in retirement[/h3]
7:42AM ET
[h5]Andy Pettitte | Yankees [/h5]
Any talk of a possible return by Andy Pettitte to the New York Yankees seemed to be quelled Monday when the 240-game winner said he perfectly content in his retirement in Deer Park, Texas.
"I'm not dying to be playing baseball right now," Pettitte said on the Michael Kay Show on ESPNNewYork1050. "I'm absolutely loving being home."
Pettitte's comments were far from a surprise, but it is a plausible scenario that he could be a solid late-season contributor after having a few months off, just as Pedro Martinez did with the Phillies in 2009. But Pettitte doesn't seem to have the same itch to return.
"I'm just telling you right now, I don't think I will ever pitch again," Pettitte said.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Peavy avoids DL[/h3]
7:05AM ET
[h5]Jake Peavy | White Sox [/h5]
The decision of the Chicago White Sox to go with a six-man rotation now looks like a prudent one after Jake Peavy was removed from his start against the Tigers Sunday with a strained right groin.
While there was plenty of speculation Peavy would land on the disabled list Monday, no roster move was made after he underwent an MRI examination that revealed a light sprain of his right groin.
Manager Ozzie Guillen already had planned to go with a six-man rotation until the All-Star break, an indication they were concerned with Peavy's past history of injuries. Now the struggling White Sox will go back to the conventional rotation with Philip Humber as the fifth starter.
MLB Draft: Best, Worst and Who's Left.
Full analysis of the first round.
Analysis of the compensation round.
Seven days rest theory.
The Freak II
Washington rebuilding.
Rumors.
http://[h3]Could Boras steer Prince to DC?[/h3]
9:50AM ET
[h5]Prince Fielder | Brewers [/h5]
Many teams run for the hills when it comes to dealing with Scott Boras, but the super agent doesn't scare away the Washington Nationals. Monday's draft was another example, adding to speculation that the Nats could be a serious player for Brewers first baseman Prince Fielder this fall.
ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney connects the dots in Tuesday's blog after the Nats selected Rice third baseman Anthony Rendon, a Boras client, on Monday night. Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper, two other Day One picks, are represented by Boras, as are Jayson Werth and Fielder.
Olney says there is "growing industry speculation" that Fielder could be a target of the Nats, in part because they are comfortable dealing with Boras. One thought: if Werth could get $126 million, what is Fielder's price tag?
Last week, we mentioned the Orioles as a team that could have interest in Fielder.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Another setback for Lidge[/h3]
9:21AM ET
[h5]Brad Lidge | Phillies [/h5]
It's a good thing for the Phillies that Ryan Madson has comfortably moved into the closer's role. Injured closer Brad Lidge suffered yet another setback Monday, pushing back the timetable for a return.
General manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said Lidge had elbow soreness while throwing a bullpen session in Florida. Lidge will return to Philadelphia to be examined by team doctor Michael Ciccotti.
Lidge, who has yet to pitch this season, is on the 60-day disabled list with a torn rotator cuff.
If the Phillies do seek bullpen help at the deadline, it would likely be for middle relief. Madson has converted all 13 of his save opportunities and has finally earned the confidence of manager Charlie Manuel.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Speedy return for Hanley?[/h3]
8:55AM ET
[h5]Hanley Ramirez | Marlins [/h5]
UPDATE: Hanley Ramirez finally landed on the disabled list and is eligible to be reinstated June 14. Monday was the most confident Ramirez has sounded about a speedy return.
Ramirez says he likely won't need any rehab games, but that may depend on how he feels over the next week. In the meantime, Emilio Bonifacio remains the starting shortstop.
--
We have a plausible explanation for the dramatic fall in production this season by Hanley Ramirez, and it may result in the first-ever trip to the disabled list for the Florida Marlins shortstop.
Manny Navarro of the Miami Herald reports Ramirez, barring a miraculous recovery, is headed to the disabled list. Ramirez has not played in a week because of continued stiffness in his lower back that forced him to leave last Sunday's game in Los Angeles.
Ramirez told Juan C. Rodriguez of the Sun-Sentinel that he's felt discomfort for about a month, adding that it was the worst pain he ever experienced.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28877/emilio-bonifacioEmilio Bonifacio has started at shortstop in place of Ramirez.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Making room for Mazzaro[/h3]
8:38AM ET
[h5]Vin Mazzaro | Royals [/h5]
When we last saw Vin Mazzaro in a big league uniform, the righthander was enduring a public flogging courtesy of the Cleveland Indians. Mazzaro was tagged for 14 runs over 2 1/3 innings on May 16 and the Royals promptly shipped him to Triple-A Omaha.
Mazzaro has seemingly worked out his problems in the minors and will be recalled in time to face the Blue Jays on Tuesday night. The Royals did not announce a corresponding move to clear space for Mazzaro, but the Kansas City Star says they seem likely to option reliever Jesse Chavez to Omaha.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]A step forward for Kendall[/h3]
8:28AM ET
[h5]Jason Kendall | Royals [/h5]
The Kansas City Royals still have no concrete timetable on a return for Jason Kendall, but the veteran catcher took a step forward Monday when he took batting practice for the first time since undergoing shoulder surgery.
If things proceed as planned, Kendall should be ready to head out on a rehab assignment by the end of the month, manager Ned Yost tells the Kansas City Star.
The 36-year-old Kendall is the final year of a two-year, $6 million deal, so he may be in his final months with the organization. Matt Treanor and Brayan Pena have shared the catching duties in Kendall's absence.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Scutaro completes rehab stint[/h3]
8:08AM ET
[h5]Marco Scutaro | Red Sox [/h5]
UPDATE: Scutaro completed a rehab stint Monday and is expected to the join the Red Sox in time for Tuesday's game against the Yankees. Righthander Scott Atchison will be sent back to Pawtucket to make room for Scutaro, who was 5-for-11 in three games for the PawSox.
--
Veteran infielder Marco Scutaro will start a rehab assignment for Triple-A Pawtucket Saturday, and could be activated from the disabled list sometime within a week, reports the Boston Globe.
But how much Scutaro will play once he returns remains to be seen. Jed Lowrie is hitting .304/.349/.406 and is handling shortstop defensively. Furthermore, one of Scutaro's potential advantages -- his ability to hit left-handed pitching as a pure right-handed hitter -- is of no advantage in the end, with the switch-hitting Lowrie hitting .431/.443/.690 versus southpaws.
Scutaro has flashed well above-average defense at shortstop in the past, but at 35 those days may be behind him. He could instead serve as a utility reserve, spelling Lowrie, Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis around the infield.
- Jason A. Churchill
http://[h3]Johnson not close to a promotion[/h3]
7:55AM ET
[h5]Nick Johnson | Indians [/h5]
Nick Johnson was in the Indians' clubhouse before Monday night's game against the Twins, but that doesn't mean the veteran first baseman is close to a big league call-up, manager Manny Acta tells MLB.com.
The injury-plagued Johnson, who has played in all of 24 games last season, was signed in early March and has played in a pair of games at Double-A Akron. He is headed for Triple-A Columbus and Acta wants him to get plenty of at-bats before any decision is made on a promotion.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Pettitte happy in retirement[/h3]
7:42AM ET
[h5]Andy Pettitte | Yankees [/h5]
Any talk of a possible return by Andy Pettitte to the New York Yankees seemed to be quelled Monday when the 240-game winner said he perfectly content in his retirement in Deer Park, Texas.
"I'm not dying to be playing baseball right now," Pettitte said on the Michael Kay Show on ESPNNewYork1050. "I'm absolutely loving being home."
Pettitte's comments were far from a surprise, but it is a plausible scenario that he could be a solid late-season contributor after having a few months off, just as Pedro Martinez did with the Phillies in 2009. But Pettitte doesn't seem to have the same itch to return.
"I'm just telling you right now, I don't think I will ever pitch again," Pettitte said.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Peavy avoids DL[/h3]
7:05AM ET
[h5]Jake Peavy | White Sox [/h5]
The decision of the Chicago White Sox to go with a six-man rotation now looks like a prudent one after Jake Peavy was removed from his start against the Tigers Sunday with a strained right groin.
While there was plenty of speculation Peavy would land on the disabled list Monday, no roster move was made after he underwent an MRI examination that revealed a light sprain of his right groin.
Manager Ozzie Guillen already had planned to go with a six-man rotation until the All-Star break, an indication they were concerned with Peavy's past history of injuries. Now the struggling White Sox will go back to the conventional rotation with Philip Humber as the fifth starter.
Spoiler [+]
Day 1 of the 2011 MLB draft was full of surprises, with the Mariners shocking everyone by going pitcher (surprise No. 1) and making that pick Virginia lefty Danny Hultzen (surprise No. 2), probably scorching the Royals' long-held plan to grab a college pitcher with the No. 5 pick. But there were plenty of intriguing moves through the remainder of the evening, some I loved, some that had me scratching my head. I've also listed my top remaining players as the draft moves to Day 2.
[h3]Moves I liked[/h3]
[h3]Tampa Bay Rays[/h3]
The picks: Taylor Guerrieri (24), Mikie Mahtook (31), Jake Hager (32), Brandon Martin (3, Tyler Goeddel (41), Jeff Ames (42), Blake Snell (52), Kes Carter (56), Grayson Garvin (59), James Harris (60)
Summary: When you pick as often as Tampa Bay did, you're bound to do something I can praise. And I did like the majority of the Rays' picks. Their first pick, Taylor Guerrieri, has top-half-of-the-round stuff but fell on some signability and makeup questions -- however, the Rays did their homework on the latter and are satisfied with what they learned. Mikie Mahtook fell because ... well, I have no idea why he fell, maybe "profit-taking." He's a balanced player who'll contribute on offense and defense and move quickly through the system, and he plays like his hair is on fire. Tyler Goeddel is an athletic, projectable bat who should end up in left field and provide average and power. Brandon Martin is a shortstop who should stay at the position and has a short swing to produce line-drive contact. Grayson Garvin is a polished left-handed starter whose velocity ticked up at year's end, and he comes from Vanderbilt, one of the country's best college programs for developing arms. The Rays took probability, they took ceiling, they took tough signs, they took quick signs. They built a portfolio among their picks, taking advantage of the control they had with all of those selections in a short period of the draft. By August, if they sign most of these guys, that farm system likely will be the best in baseball.
[h3]Minnesota Twins[/h3]
The picks: Levi Michael (30), Travis Harrison (50), Hudson Boyd (55)
Summary: Levi Michael is a 20-year-old switch-hitting shortstop who can run; unless the ankle is somehow worse than I've heard, it makes no sense to me that he fell out of the top 20, and the Twins are very fortunate that they could grab him. Travis Harrison was in play in the late first/early sandwich as one of the better pure bats in the high school class but might have fallen on signability and concerns he will end up at first base, where I still think the bat will profile. The Twins also got a personal favorite of mine in Hudson Boyd, a big kid with two above-average pitches and outstanding makeup.
[h3]Arizona Diamondbacks[/h3]
The picks: Trevor Bauer (3), Archie Bradley (7), Andrew Chafin (43),
Summary: I mean, is this cheating, since the Diamondbacks picked twice in the top 10? They sure didn't go cheap with Archie Bradley at No. 7 -- I liked him more than their first pick, Trevor Bauer. And they added Andrew Chafin in the sandwich round, a reliever-turned-starter on the way back from Tommy John surgery who was apparently "disgusting" (that's good) in his last outing prior to the draft.
[h3]San Diego Padres[/h3]
The picks: Cory Spangenberg (10), Joe Ross (25), Michael Kelly (4, Brett Austin (54)
Summary: The pick at No. 10 was unprotected, and the Padres did what they had to do, taking a signable player there in Cory Spangenberg. But they still got some upside because the kid can fly and has a great left-handed swing; if he had a set position, he might have been projected to go there even without the signability. They also added a high-upside arm in Joe Ross, a guy who adds athleticism to their system.
[h3]Boston Red Sox[/h3]
The picks: Matt Barnes (19), Blake Swihart (26), Henry Owens (36), Jackie Bradley (40)
Summary: I hinted at this on Twitter, but some of the credit for Boston's draft is just that the right guys fell to the team. However, the Red Sox do deserve the rest of the credit for actually taking them (and, presumably, paying them). They got Blake Swihart, who I think will be an impact hitter and has a chance to do it as a catcher, with their second pick after preseason top-10 guy Matt Barnes -- whose velocity was fine but didn't show great command this year -- fell to them at No. 19. Henry Owens was spot on in the sandwich round as a projectable lefty who already hits 93 mph and has great deception, and they took a flier on Jackie Bradley's recovery from injury much as they did last year with Anthony Ranaudo.
[h3]Moves I question[/h3]
[h3]Atlanta Braves[/h3]
The picks: Sean Gilmartin (2
Summary: Sean Gilmartin as your lone pick of the day? I like Gilmartin for what he is, an athletic, competitive, back-end starter, but there were a number of higher-upside guys on the board, and the last thing Atlanta needs is a low-ceiling starter.
[h3]Colorado Rockies[/h3]
The picks: Tyler Anderson (20), Trevor Story (45)
Summary: Tyler Anderson was going in the first round, so it wasn't a reach by comparative standards, but I see no out pitch here, just a lefty with some command who'll probably be a pitch-to-contact guy at higher levels, not a great fit for the Rockies' park. Trevor Story can pick it at short with a plus arm, but I don't buy the bat and the consensus from scouts I talked to down there was the same.
[h3]Los Angeles Dodgers[/h3]
The picks: Chris Reed (16)
Summary: I actually don't mind the Chris Reed pick as much as some of my sources -- it's a reach, but put him back in the rotation and it could look very shrewd in a year or so. I'm more concerned about what it means for the club, as my pre-draft report that the Dodgers couldn't go over slot looks like it's probably accurate. That's too bad, especially in a year in which it looks like two dozen clubs might throw the commissioner's slot recommendations out the window.
[h3]Texas Rangers[/h3]
The picks: Kevin Matthews (33), Zach Cone (37),
Summary: Zach Cone has big tools, but they just don't play, exacerbated by a bad leak out front at the plate, and he was wildly overmatched in the Team USA trials last summer and on the Cape the year before (his only real experience hitting with wood). Kevin Matthews is a tough-sign high school lefty who projects as a reliever because of his frame. That seems the opposite of what you'd expect from a nascent, big-market club such as the Rangers, especially since they were linked to several big-ticket, high-ceiling high school kids.
[h3]Seattle Mariners[/h3]
The picks: Danny Hultzen (2)
Summary: I'm not criticizing Hultzen in the least here, but I think drafting at No. 2 overall is a rare chance to go for ceiling, and the Mariners didn't do that. They took a very safe, very good college pitcher who will move quickly but doesn't have No. 1 starter upside. And I admit I like my left-handers to have better breaking balls than Hultzen, whose best off-speed pitch is a changeup.
[h3]Best players remaining[/h3]
The number denotes the player's ranking in my final Top 100 ranking.
1. http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/draft/player/_/id/19032/josh-bellJosh Bell, OF (ranked No. 15 overall)
2. Dillon Howard, RHP (1
3. Anthony Meo, RHP (25)
4. Andrew Susac, C (27)
5. Austin Hedges, C (31)
6. Daniel Norris, LHP (35)
7. Alex Dickerson, OF (37)
8. Charles Tilson, OF (3
9. Nick Delmonico, C/1B (39)
10. Johnny Eierman, SS (44)
[h3]Moves I liked[/h3]
[h3]Tampa Bay Rays[/h3]
The picks: Taylor Guerrieri (24), Mikie Mahtook (31), Jake Hager (32), Brandon Martin (3
, Tyler Goeddel (41), Jeff Ames (42), Blake Snell (52), Kes Carter (56), Grayson Garvin (59), James Harris (60) Summary: When you pick as often as Tampa Bay did, you're bound to do something I can praise. And I did like the majority of the Rays' picks. Their first pick, Taylor Guerrieri, has top-half-of-the-round stuff but fell on some signability and makeup questions -- however, the Rays did their homework on the latter and are satisfied with what they learned. Mikie Mahtook fell because ... well, I have no idea why he fell, maybe "profit-taking." He's a balanced player who'll contribute on offense and defense and move quickly through the system, and he plays like his hair is on fire. Tyler Goeddel is an athletic, projectable bat who should end up in left field and provide average and power. Brandon Martin is a shortstop who should stay at the position and has a short swing to produce line-drive contact. Grayson Garvin is a polished left-handed starter whose velocity ticked up at year's end, and he comes from Vanderbilt, one of the country's best college programs for developing arms. The Rays took probability, they took ceiling, they took tough signs, they took quick signs. They built a portfolio among their picks, taking advantage of the control they had with all of those selections in a short period of the draft. By August, if they sign most of these guys, that farm system likely will be the best in baseball.
[h3]Minnesota Twins[/h3]
The picks: Levi Michael (30), Travis Harrison (50), Hudson Boyd (55)
Summary: Levi Michael is a 20-year-old switch-hitting shortstop who can run; unless the ankle is somehow worse than I've heard, it makes no sense to me that he fell out of the top 20, and the Twins are very fortunate that they could grab him. Travis Harrison was in play in the late first/early sandwich as one of the better pure bats in the high school class but might have fallen on signability and concerns he will end up at first base, where I still think the bat will profile. The Twins also got a personal favorite of mine in Hudson Boyd, a big kid with two above-average pitches and outstanding makeup.
[h3]Arizona Diamondbacks[/h3]
The picks: Trevor Bauer (3), Archie Bradley (7), Andrew Chafin (43),
Summary: I mean, is this cheating, since the Diamondbacks picked twice in the top 10? They sure didn't go cheap with Archie Bradley at No. 7 -- I liked him more than their first pick, Trevor Bauer. And they added Andrew Chafin in the sandwich round, a reliever-turned-starter on the way back from Tommy John surgery who was apparently "disgusting" (that's good) in his last outing prior to the draft.
[h3]San Diego Padres[/h3]
The picks: Cory Spangenberg (10), Joe Ross (25), Michael Kelly (4
, Brett Austin (54) Summary: The pick at No. 10 was unprotected, and the Padres did what they had to do, taking a signable player there in Cory Spangenberg. But they still got some upside because the kid can fly and has a great left-handed swing; if he had a set position, he might have been projected to go there even without the signability. They also added a high-upside arm in Joe Ross, a guy who adds athleticism to their system.
[h3]Boston Red Sox[/h3]
The picks: Matt Barnes (19), Blake Swihart (26), Henry Owens (36), Jackie Bradley (40)
Summary: I hinted at this on Twitter, but some of the credit for Boston's draft is just that the right guys fell to the team. However, the Red Sox do deserve the rest of the credit for actually taking them (and, presumably, paying them). They got Blake Swihart, who I think will be an impact hitter and has a chance to do it as a catcher, with their second pick after preseason top-10 guy Matt Barnes -- whose velocity was fine but didn't show great command this year -- fell to them at No. 19. Henry Owens was spot on in the sandwich round as a projectable lefty who already hits 93 mph and has great deception, and they took a flier on Jackie Bradley's recovery from injury much as they did last year with Anthony Ranaudo.
[h3]Moves I question[/h3]
[h3]Atlanta Braves[/h3]
The picks: Sean Gilmartin (2
Summary: Sean Gilmartin as your lone pick of the day? I like Gilmartin for what he is, an athletic, competitive, back-end starter, but there were a number of higher-upside guys on the board, and the last thing Atlanta needs is a low-ceiling starter.
[h3]Colorado Rockies[/h3]
The picks: Tyler Anderson (20), Trevor Story (45)
Summary: Tyler Anderson was going in the first round, so it wasn't a reach by comparative standards, but I see no out pitch here, just a lefty with some command who'll probably be a pitch-to-contact guy at higher levels, not a great fit for the Rockies' park. Trevor Story can pick it at short with a plus arm, but I don't buy the bat and the consensus from scouts I talked to down there was the same.
[h3]Los Angeles Dodgers[/h3]
The picks: Chris Reed (16)
Summary: I actually don't mind the Chris Reed pick as much as some of my sources -- it's a reach, but put him back in the rotation and it could look very shrewd in a year or so. I'm more concerned about what it means for the club, as my pre-draft report that the Dodgers couldn't go over slot looks like it's probably accurate. That's too bad, especially in a year in which it looks like two dozen clubs might throw the commissioner's slot recommendations out the window.
[h3]Texas Rangers[/h3]
The picks: Kevin Matthews (33), Zach Cone (37),
Summary: Zach Cone has big tools, but they just don't play, exacerbated by a bad leak out front at the plate, and he was wildly overmatched in the Team USA trials last summer and on the Cape the year before (his only real experience hitting with wood). Kevin Matthews is a tough-sign high school lefty who projects as a reliever because of his frame. That seems the opposite of what you'd expect from a nascent, big-market club such as the Rangers, especially since they were linked to several big-ticket, high-ceiling high school kids.
[h3]Seattle Mariners[/h3]
The picks: Danny Hultzen (2)
Summary: I'm not criticizing Hultzen in the least here, but I think drafting at No. 2 overall is a rare chance to go for ceiling, and the Mariners didn't do that. They took a very safe, very good college pitcher who will move quickly but doesn't have No. 1 starter upside. And I admit I like my left-handers to have better breaking balls than Hultzen, whose best off-speed pitch is a changeup.
[h3]Best players remaining[/h3]
The number denotes the player's ranking in my final Top 100 ranking.
1. http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/draft/player/_/id/19032/josh-bellJosh Bell, OF (ranked No. 15 overall)
2. Dillon Howard, RHP (1
3. Anthony Meo, RHP (25)
4. Andrew Susac, C (27)
5. Austin Hedges, C (31)
6. Daniel Norris, LHP (35)
7. Alex Dickerson, OF (37)
8. Charles Tilson, OF (3
9. Nick Delmonico, C/1B (39)
10. Johnny Eierman, SS (44)
Full analysis of the first round.
Spoiler [+]
And now, on to the picks.
[h6]Pittsburgh Pirates
[/h6]
Gerrit Cole, RHP, UCLA
Churchill: We expected this and Keith Law has been projecting this pick for weeks. I saw him twice and he was so-so both times, but with a plus changeup, big-time velocity up to 100 mph and a promising breaking ball, it's difficult to pass on Cole. The Pirates do not have such a player in their system and the UCLA product could see the big leagues after very little time in the minors. Seattle is looking at Rice third baseman Anthony Rendon here and prep center fielder Bubba Starling is still an outside possibility. I have been told shortstop Francisco Lindor is not the pick for the M's
[h6]Seattle Mariners[/h6]
Danny Hultzen, LHP, Virginia
Churchill: Hultzen is a surprise pick here, as the expectation was Rice third baseman Anthony Rendon or prep center fielder Bubba Starling. Hultzen is expected to move quickly and reach the majors within two years, but he does lack the upside of other college pitchers in the class. He did perform well and has above-average stuff including a 90-94 mph fastball and two above-average off-speed pitches. The rumored asking price was high, but perhaps there was a pre-draft deal in place here or strong indications that Hultzen would sign for what Seattle was willing to spend on the pick. Arizona is likely to tab UCLA right-hander Trevor Bauer at No. 3, but with Rendon still on the board, anything goes from this point forward.
[h6]Arizona Diamondbacks[/h6]
Trevor Bauer, RHP, UCLA
Churchill: Bauer, also a potential quick-mover like Hultzen, is not a surprise here as the D-backs have been linked to the right-hander for some time. The plus curveball, consistency and 91-95 mph velocity overrule the concerns on workload -- he averaged around 130 pitches per start this season -- and the unconventional throwing program he follows diligently. Rendon may not be strongly considered by Baltimore at No. 4, and the O's are said to be considering righty Dylan Bundy from Owasso HS in Oklahoma.
[h6]Baltimore Orioles [/h6]
Dylan Bundy, RHP, Owasso (Okla.) HS
Churchill: Bundy is a tremendous talent, and despite the lack of ideal size at 6-foot-1 and 190 pounds, he profiles as a No. 1 starter and could hit the big leagues as quickly as many of the college arms in the class. The big fastball -- up to 98 mph -- is just the beginning as he also offers a plus curveball, a potentially useful changeup and a cutter that may be his best secondary offering. He's a workout freak and breaks the mold that scouting director Joe Jordan generally sticks to, but he stays on top of his pitches and is a great competitor. Kansas City has the next pick and it could be Starling or a college arm such as Matt Barnes or Alex Meyer.
[h6]Kansas City Royals[/h6]
Bubba Starling, OF, Garner-Edgerton (Kans.) HS
Churchill: Starling may be the best talent in the class, starting with his plus raw power and tremendous all-around tools. Despite standing 6-foot-4 he profiles well in center thanks to good instincts and perhaps 60 speed on the 20-80 scouting scale. He's drawn comparisons to Josh Hamilton, but may be more like 2009 first-round pick and top prospect Mike Trout. The Royals farm system just added another high-ceiling talent with superstar potential. Plus, he gives Kansas City the one thing its farm system lacks: an impact up-the-middle player.
[h6]Washington Nationals[/h6]
Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice
Churchill: This was the next spot for Rendon to go after Seattle passed on him at No. 2, and it's clear the Nationals went for best player available, ignoring the fact Ryan Zimmerman is one of the best third baseman in baseball and under contract long term. Rendon's injury concerns may or may not have had something to do with the fall, but the Nationals get a hitter here who could join them on the 25-man roster as early as next season. Where he plays in D.C. remains to be seen, but there has been some chatter about him moving to second base. The Nationals' next pick is at 23 and since they were linked to a lot of college players at No. 6, getting Rendon instead may change their efforts later this round.
[h6]Arizona Diamondbacks[/h6]
Archie Bradley, RHP, Broken Arrow (Okla.) HS
Churchill: The Diamondbacks ignored the fact this pick is unprotected after failing to sign Texas A&M's Barret Loux a year ago (he failed a post-draft physical) and took the best player on their board in Bradley. With velocity into the mid-90s and the best curveball among prep arms in the class, the upside is huge for Bradley, and he could end up at the top of the rotation. His college commitment may cost the D-backs here, but it's a gutsy pick and a great move if they get him signed. If they don't sign him, they don't get a compensation pick next year, hence the phrase "unprotected."
[h6]Cleveland Indians[/h6]
Francisco Lindor, SS, Montverde (Fla.) Academy
Churchill: Lindor was considered by Seattle and Arizona, and the Indians get a potential five-tool player who won't turn 18 until November. He's a switch-hitter with pop -- he won the home run derby at the Aflac All-American game last year at age 16 -- and scares opposing coaches from all angles. He's a wizard on defense and projects to not only stick at shortstop but thrive there. The Indians could be in a position to have to trade budding star Asdrubal Cabrera in a few years as he gets more expensive, and now Lindor is set as the successor. The question on Lindor is how real the power is, but scouts generally agree it's above-average relative to the position. Lindor isn't going to be a cheap sign so it appears the Indians are not looking for a slot signing with this pick, which should make Tribe fans happy.
[h6]Chicago Cubs[/h6]
Javier Baez, SS, Arlington Country Day (Jacksonville, Fla.)
Churchill: Baez is one of the best prep bats in the class, with power and a chance to hit for average as well. He played shortstop in high school but is believed to be headed for third base as a pro. The swing is a bit long but there's bat speed to spare and the Cubs are big on upside talent.
[h6]San Diego Padres[/h6]
Cory Spangenberg, 3B, Indian River State College
Churchill: Spangenberg, who player third in college, can run and has a plus hit tool with a chance for some power. This pick is unprotected so the Padres needed a signable player, but if Spangenberg can play up the middle somewhere he's a potential All-Star. He's not expected to play shortstop, his natural position, and doesn't profile to hit for the power generally reserved for third basemen but his athleticism suggests center field is a legitimate option. The Padres called him as a second baseman when they made the pick, so we can assume that's where he will begin his pro career.
[h6]Houston Astros[/h6]
George Springer, OF, UConn
Churchill: Springer came into the season as a potential top-5 pick, but showed some mechanical flaws that have scouts concerned that his swing is not sound and will delay his path to the big leagues. There's plus power and speed and he throws well. There is a chance he plays some center field but he has the arm to move to right, and the bat will play there if he fixes the swing.
[h6]Milwaukee Brewers[/h6]
Taylor Jungmann, RHP, Texas
Churchill: Jungmann has good stuff, sitting 91-95 mph with the fastball and offering two breaking balls of which the slider is the better pitch. He has some delivery concerns -- he throws across his body -- but he's been as consistent as any arm in the country this season and may not need much time in the minors to help the Brewers, and their farm system lacks just about everything. He's big and physical, and could pitch behind Yovani Gallardo and Zack Greinke with No. 2 upside.
[h6]New York Mets[/h6]
Brandon Nimmo, OF, East HS (Cheyenne, Wyo.)
Churchill: Nimmo is a high-upside play here and a refreshing pick for the Mets. He's a good athlete and could hit for plus power down the road, but his left-handed bat profiles to play in a corner outfield spot, where his arm fits, too. Nimmo brings a good work ethic to the table and he squares up fastballs regularly. His lack of competition -- his high school does not have a team -- made it difficult for him to get seen by scouts, but he's found a way to get noticed, including an impressive display on the showcase circuit last summer.
[h6]Florida Marlins[/h6]
Jose Fernandez, RHP, Alonso HS (Tampa, Fla.)
Churchill: The Marlins continue to go upside and get Fernandez, a Cuban defector, who offers a plus fastball into the mid-90s. He's 19 years old but fits the profile of the kind of pitcher The Fish like to work. However, the lack of a polished breaking ball could keep him in the minors for four or five years. It's no shock that the Marlins took a kid from Florida, as they were linked to just about every prep player in the state. Fernandez joins 2009 first-rounder Chad James (a southpaw) in a farm system that has produced pitchers Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco in recent years.
[h6]Milwaukee Brewers[/h6]
Jed Bradley, LHP, Georgia Tech
Churchill: This is a protected pick but the Brewers get another college arm that could hit the big leagues inside of three years. He's a tall southpaw that has touched 97 mph but generally sits 91-94. His breaking ball needs work and his changeup often goes unused, which suggests he could land in the bullpen. He does throw strikes and he has an uncanny ability to avoid the sweet spot of the bat, but his inconsistencies kept him out of the top 10. The Brewers now have two legit rotation candidates out of this draft.
[h6]Los Angeles Dodgers[/h6]
Chris Reed, LHP, Stanford
Churchill: We knew this was going to be a slot pick with the current financial situation in L.A. and Reed was mentioned as a possibility by Law on Sunday and as the favorite here earlier today. There's big league ability here and his changeup and slider are his two best pitches, but this was a pick to make sure they landed a player with probability and signability, rather than upside.
[h6]Los Angeles Angels[/h6]
C.J. Cron, 1B, Utah
Churchill: Cron possesses perhaps the best power tool among college bats in the entire class. A natural catcher, Cron played first base this season due to a shoulder injury, but that is likely where he ends up as a pro. He makes a lot of contact, too, but doesn't generally work the count all that much. He generates leverage and loft consistently and is believed to have a strong enough ability to hit for average that he'll skate through the minors in a couple of seasons. The Halos need bats, and Cron gives them one.
[h6]Oakland Athletics [/h6]
Sonny Gray, RHP, Vanderbilt
Churchill: Gray has terrific stuff and could have gone in the top 10. Because he's 5-foot-11 or maybe 6 feet tall, there are concerns about his durability, but his command and delivery became bigger concerns late this spring. The velocity is firm in the 92-96 mph range and his curveball is already a plus pitch. With Oakland's present starting rotation, the rich project to get richer, though Gray could end up in the bullpen down the line.
[h6]Boston Red Sox[/h6]
Matt Barnes, RHP, UConn
Churchill: The Red Sox getting Barnes here is a coup. He's a potential No. 1 or 2 starter and already possesses a 93-97 mph fastball and potentially plus curveball. He holds his velocity late into games and could get to the majors quickly, especially if he gets his feet wet out of the bullpen. Boston has more picks coming on later this evening, but this is a tremendous start as most didn't believe Barnes would get this far.
[h6]Colorado Rockies [/h6]
Tyler Anderson, LHP, Oregon
Churchill: Anderson lacks the stuff and upside of other available college arms, including Kentucky's Alex Meyer, but he's athletic and polished and could be in the majors by the end of 2012 or early in 2013. He has a funky delivery but also a loose arm and when he commands his fastball he's tough to square up. He has two breaking balls, though both are inconsistent and he generally induced swings and misses from the change in speed more than a sharp, late break. If he can add to one of them -- more likely the curveball since he likes to pitch up in the zone a bit -- and find a better feel for a changeup, he could be a mid-rotation starter. More likely he's a back-end arm or a reliever, but one that helps the Rockies sooner than later.
[h6]Toronto Blue Jays[/h6]
Tyler Beede, RHP, Lawrence Academy (Groton, Mass.)
Churchill: The Blue Jays have extra picks but went with some upside with Beede, who could be a tough sign due to a strong commitment to Vanderbilt. He sits in the low-90s and improved his breaking ball this season, which now profiles as an above-average pitch in time. Toronto took righty Aaron Sanchez last year and now add Beede to its crop of young pitchers. It appears Toronto drafted for value here as many of the top college arms are already off the board, except for Kentucky's Alex Meyer.
[h6]St. Louis Cardinals[/h6]
Kolten Wong, 2B, Hawaii
Churchill: The Cardinals passed on Alex Meyer (the best available college pitcher) and prep arms Taylor Guerrieri and Dillon Howard to take Wong, a second baseman with an above-average hit tool. He lacks power, however, so he comes with limited upside. He's an average runner and an average defender but has good hands and could develop into a plus glove. St. Louis went for probability here rather than best player available.
[h6]Washington Nationals[/h6]
Alex Meyer, RHP, Kentucky
Churchill: They tabbed Rendon at No. 6 and went pitching here with the best available college starter in Meyer. He brings big upside with a plus fastball-slider combo. He's 6-foot-9 and when he keeps his delivery together is dominant and uses the slider to put batters away. There's a chance he's a closer in the future but he holds his velocity well despite some inconsistencies with his command. The Nationals, if we dream for a second, could have four perennial All-Stars out of the past three first rounds in Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper, Rendon and Meyer, with an above-average closer in Drew Storen.
[h6]Tampa Bay Rays[/h6]
Taylor Guerrieri, RHP, Spring Valley HS (Columbia, S.C.)
Churchill: The Rays have 10 of the next 37 picks and certainly didn't go signability here with Guerrieri, who has a commitment to South Carolina. Keith Law ranks him as the No. 3 prep arm in the class, and a scout I spoke to early this season called him a prototypical starter in today's game thanks to a 92-95 mph fastball that has reached 97. His curveball is plus and he's got some athleticism. Tampa got the best player available here, a good start to its busy day.
[h6]San Diego Padres[/h6]
Joe Ross, RHP, Bishop O'Dowd HS (Oakland, Calif.)
Churchill: Ross may have been the best player on the board. He's not as projectable as his brother Tyson -- who pitches for the A's -- was at the same age, but comes with better command and mechanics. Scouts rave about his delivery and arm action, which suggests he's a safe bet to develop his pitches and progress through the minors. San Diego, having tabbed Spangenberg at No. 10, lands a potential No. 2 starter in Ross.
[h6]Boston Red Sox[/h6]
Blake Swihart, C, Cleveland HS (Rio Rancho, N.M.)
Churchill: The Red Sox get perhaps the top catcher in the class in Swihart, though there are some questions about his defense. The tools are there and his bat may play in a corner outfield spot if he can't cut it behind the plate. The Red Sox farm system now has a little bit of everything by adding Swihart, a switch-hitting catcher.
[h6]Cincinnati Reds[/h6]
Robert Stephenson, RHP, Alhambra (Calif.) HS
Churchill: With many of the college arms off the board, the Reds dug into the prep ranks for Stephenson, who touches 94 mph and complements his heater with a promising curveball. There's some effort in his delivery but he's a good athlete and a smart kid on and off the field. His commitment to Washington is strong, but he's considered signable and gives the Reds a young arm with upside.
[h6]Atlanta Braves[/h6]
Sean Gilmartin, LHP, Florida State
Churchill: Gilmartin gets by with average velocity touching the low 90s by relying on an advanced feel for pitching. His changeup is a plus offering but his curveball is soft, prompting some scouts to compare him to Mariners lefty Jason Vargas. In other words, a No. 4 starter. The Braves have Mike Minor, Julio Teheran and Arodys Vizcaino nearing the big leagues, so their pick of Gilmartin was all about drafting a player that would sign for MLB's recommended bonus for this slot.
[h6]San Francisco[/h6]
Joe Panik, SS, St. John's
Churchill: Panik may have to move to second base due to a below-average arm, but projects to hit for some average as he works counts and shows good pitch recognition. There's not much future power in the bat, however, which could make it difficult for him to crack the starting lineup in San Francisco. The Giants appear to have gone for a slot signing here and several players rank ahead of Panik on Law's Top 100.
[h6]Minnesota Twins[/h6]
Levi Michael, SS, North Carolina
Churchill: Michael is the top college shortstop in the class and the Twins may be pairing him with import Tsuyoshi Nishioka in the middle of the infield in a few years. Michael runs well and handles shortstop, but his bat is his best tool and he projects to hit for average and get on base thanks to an ability to use the whole field. The Twins passed on some prep arms but didn't reach for the college pitcher as some expected.
[h6]Tampa Bay Rays[/h6]
Mikie Mahtook, OF, LSU
Churchill: Mahtook's "slide" ends with the Rays, who now have two strong picks with eight remaining tonight. Mahtook can play center field and has a good arm and his power ticked up this season in a strong conference despite the change in bats at the college level. He was generally projected to go in the top 20 and Law had him as high as No. 14 to the Marlins and No. 9 to the Cubs in previous mock drafts. The Rays may have drafted B.J. Upton's replacement, depending on the future status of Desmond Jennings.
[h6]Tampa Bay Rays[/h6]
Jake Hager, SS, Sierra Vista (Nev.) HS
Churchill: The Rays reached here for Hager, a shortstop that most scouts believe needs to go to school and make another run at it in a few years. He's a shortstop with a chance to stay there, but the bat lacks polish and he's merely an adequate overall athlete for the position.
[h6]Texas Rangers[/h6]
Kevin Matthews, LHP, Richmond Hill (Ga.) HS
Churchill: The Rangers dig for Matthews, a left-hander committed to the University of Virginia who may very well choose school, despite a seven-figure bonus in the offing. He's likely a reliever in the future, but he has athleticism and above-average velocity. The Rangers have a pick in the compensation round and may choose to go over slot for the right talent with that selection.
[h6]Pittsburgh Pirates
[/h6]
Gerrit Cole, RHP, UCLA
Churchill: We expected this and Keith Law has been projecting this pick for weeks. I saw him twice and he was so-so both times, but with a plus changeup, big-time velocity up to 100 mph and a promising breaking ball, it's difficult to pass on Cole. The Pirates do not have such a player in their system and the UCLA product could see the big leagues after very little time in the minors. Seattle is looking at Rice third baseman Anthony Rendon here and prep center fielder Bubba Starling is still an outside possibility. I have been told shortstop Francisco Lindor is not the pick for the M's
[h6]Seattle Mariners[/h6]
Danny Hultzen, LHP, Virginia
Churchill: Hultzen is a surprise pick here, as the expectation was Rice third baseman Anthony Rendon or prep center fielder Bubba Starling. Hultzen is expected to move quickly and reach the majors within two years, but he does lack the upside of other college pitchers in the class. He did perform well and has above-average stuff including a 90-94 mph fastball and two above-average off-speed pitches. The rumored asking price was high, but perhaps there was a pre-draft deal in place here or strong indications that Hultzen would sign for what Seattle was willing to spend on the pick. Arizona is likely to tab UCLA right-hander Trevor Bauer at No. 3, but with Rendon still on the board, anything goes from this point forward.
[h6]Arizona Diamondbacks[/h6]
Trevor Bauer, RHP, UCLA
Churchill: Bauer, also a potential quick-mover like Hultzen, is not a surprise here as the D-backs have been linked to the right-hander for some time. The plus curveball, consistency and 91-95 mph velocity overrule the concerns on workload -- he averaged around 130 pitches per start this season -- and the unconventional throwing program he follows diligently. Rendon may not be strongly considered by Baltimore at No. 4, and the O's are said to be considering righty Dylan Bundy from Owasso HS in Oklahoma.
[h6]Baltimore Orioles [/h6]
Dylan Bundy, RHP, Owasso (Okla.) HS
Churchill: Bundy is a tremendous talent, and despite the lack of ideal size at 6-foot-1 and 190 pounds, he profiles as a No. 1 starter and could hit the big leagues as quickly as many of the college arms in the class. The big fastball -- up to 98 mph -- is just the beginning as he also offers a plus curveball, a potentially useful changeup and a cutter that may be his best secondary offering. He's a workout freak and breaks the mold that scouting director Joe Jordan generally sticks to, but he stays on top of his pitches and is a great competitor. Kansas City has the next pick and it could be Starling or a college arm such as Matt Barnes or Alex Meyer.
[h6]Kansas City Royals[/h6]
Bubba Starling, OF, Garner-Edgerton (Kans.) HS
Churchill: Starling may be the best talent in the class, starting with his plus raw power and tremendous all-around tools. Despite standing 6-foot-4 he profiles well in center thanks to good instincts and perhaps 60 speed on the 20-80 scouting scale. He's drawn comparisons to Josh Hamilton, but may be more like 2009 first-round pick and top prospect Mike Trout. The Royals farm system just added another high-ceiling talent with superstar potential. Plus, he gives Kansas City the one thing its farm system lacks: an impact up-the-middle player.
[h6]Washington Nationals[/h6]
Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice
Churchill: This was the next spot for Rendon to go after Seattle passed on him at No. 2, and it's clear the Nationals went for best player available, ignoring the fact Ryan Zimmerman is one of the best third baseman in baseball and under contract long term. Rendon's injury concerns may or may not have had something to do with the fall, but the Nationals get a hitter here who could join them on the 25-man roster as early as next season. Where he plays in D.C. remains to be seen, but there has been some chatter about him moving to second base. The Nationals' next pick is at 23 and since they were linked to a lot of college players at No. 6, getting Rendon instead may change their efforts later this round.
[h6]Arizona Diamondbacks[/h6]
Archie Bradley, RHP, Broken Arrow (Okla.) HS
Churchill: The Diamondbacks ignored the fact this pick is unprotected after failing to sign Texas A&M's Barret Loux a year ago (he failed a post-draft physical) and took the best player on their board in Bradley. With velocity into the mid-90s and the best curveball among prep arms in the class, the upside is huge for Bradley, and he could end up at the top of the rotation. His college commitment may cost the D-backs here, but it's a gutsy pick and a great move if they get him signed. If they don't sign him, they don't get a compensation pick next year, hence the phrase "unprotected."
[h6]Cleveland Indians[/h6]
Francisco Lindor, SS, Montverde (Fla.) Academy
Churchill: Lindor was considered by Seattle and Arizona, and the Indians get a potential five-tool player who won't turn 18 until November. He's a switch-hitter with pop -- he won the home run derby at the Aflac All-American game last year at age 16 -- and scares opposing coaches from all angles. He's a wizard on defense and projects to not only stick at shortstop but thrive there. The Indians could be in a position to have to trade budding star Asdrubal Cabrera in a few years as he gets more expensive, and now Lindor is set as the successor. The question on Lindor is how real the power is, but scouts generally agree it's above-average relative to the position. Lindor isn't going to be a cheap sign so it appears the Indians are not looking for a slot signing with this pick, which should make Tribe fans happy.
[h6]Chicago Cubs[/h6]
Javier Baez, SS, Arlington Country Day (Jacksonville, Fla.)
Churchill: Baez is one of the best prep bats in the class, with power and a chance to hit for average as well. He played shortstop in high school but is believed to be headed for third base as a pro. The swing is a bit long but there's bat speed to spare and the Cubs are big on upside talent.
[h6]San Diego Padres[/h6]
Cory Spangenberg, 3B, Indian River State College
Churchill: Spangenberg, who player third in college, can run and has a plus hit tool with a chance for some power. This pick is unprotected so the Padres needed a signable player, but if Spangenberg can play up the middle somewhere he's a potential All-Star. He's not expected to play shortstop, his natural position, and doesn't profile to hit for the power generally reserved for third basemen but his athleticism suggests center field is a legitimate option. The Padres called him as a second baseman when they made the pick, so we can assume that's where he will begin his pro career.
[h6]Houston Astros[/h6]
George Springer, OF, UConn
Churchill: Springer came into the season as a potential top-5 pick, but showed some mechanical flaws that have scouts concerned that his swing is not sound and will delay his path to the big leagues. There's plus power and speed and he throws well. There is a chance he plays some center field but he has the arm to move to right, and the bat will play there if he fixes the swing.
[h6]Milwaukee Brewers[/h6]
Taylor Jungmann, RHP, Texas
Churchill: Jungmann has good stuff, sitting 91-95 mph with the fastball and offering two breaking balls of which the slider is the better pitch. He has some delivery concerns -- he throws across his body -- but he's been as consistent as any arm in the country this season and may not need much time in the minors to help the Brewers, and their farm system lacks just about everything. He's big and physical, and could pitch behind Yovani Gallardo and Zack Greinke with No. 2 upside.
[h6]New York Mets[/h6]
Brandon Nimmo, OF, East HS (Cheyenne, Wyo.)
Churchill: Nimmo is a high-upside play here and a refreshing pick for the Mets. He's a good athlete and could hit for plus power down the road, but his left-handed bat profiles to play in a corner outfield spot, where his arm fits, too. Nimmo brings a good work ethic to the table and he squares up fastballs regularly. His lack of competition -- his high school does not have a team -- made it difficult for him to get seen by scouts, but he's found a way to get noticed, including an impressive display on the showcase circuit last summer.
[h6]Florida Marlins[/h6]
Jose Fernandez, RHP, Alonso HS (Tampa, Fla.)
Churchill: The Marlins continue to go upside and get Fernandez, a Cuban defector, who offers a plus fastball into the mid-90s. He's 19 years old but fits the profile of the kind of pitcher The Fish like to work. However, the lack of a polished breaking ball could keep him in the minors for four or five years. It's no shock that the Marlins took a kid from Florida, as they were linked to just about every prep player in the state. Fernandez joins 2009 first-rounder Chad James (a southpaw) in a farm system that has produced pitchers Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco in recent years.
[h6]Milwaukee Brewers[/h6]
Jed Bradley, LHP, Georgia Tech
Churchill: This is a protected pick but the Brewers get another college arm that could hit the big leagues inside of three years. He's a tall southpaw that has touched 97 mph but generally sits 91-94. His breaking ball needs work and his changeup often goes unused, which suggests he could land in the bullpen. He does throw strikes and he has an uncanny ability to avoid the sweet spot of the bat, but his inconsistencies kept him out of the top 10. The Brewers now have two legit rotation candidates out of this draft.
[h6]Los Angeles Dodgers[/h6]
Chris Reed, LHP, Stanford
Churchill: We knew this was going to be a slot pick with the current financial situation in L.A. and Reed was mentioned as a possibility by Law on Sunday and as the favorite here earlier today. There's big league ability here and his changeup and slider are his two best pitches, but this was a pick to make sure they landed a player with probability and signability, rather than upside.
[h6]Los Angeles Angels[/h6]
C.J. Cron, 1B, Utah
Churchill: Cron possesses perhaps the best power tool among college bats in the entire class. A natural catcher, Cron played first base this season due to a shoulder injury, but that is likely where he ends up as a pro. He makes a lot of contact, too, but doesn't generally work the count all that much. He generates leverage and loft consistently and is believed to have a strong enough ability to hit for average that he'll skate through the minors in a couple of seasons. The Halos need bats, and Cron gives them one.
[h6]Oakland Athletics [/h6]
Sonny Gray, RHP, Vanderbilt
Churchill: Gray has terrific stuff and could have gone in the top 10. Because he's 5-foot-11 or maybe 6 feet tall, there are concerns about his durability, but his command and delivery became bigger concerns late this spring. The velocity is firm in the 92-96 mph range and his curveball is already a plus pitch. With Oakland's present starting rotation, the rich project to get richer, though Gray could end up in the bullpen down the line.
[h6]Boston Red Sox[/h6]
Matt Barnes, RHP, UConn
Churchill: The Red Sox getting Barnes here is a coup. He's a potential No. 1 or 2 starter and already possesses a 93-97 mph fastball and potentially plus curveball. He holds his velocity late into games and could get to the majors quickly, especially if he gets his feet wet out of the bullpen. Boston has more picks coming on later this evening, but this is a tremendous start as most didn't believe Barnes would get this far.
[h6]Colorado Rockies [/h6]
Tyler Anderson, LHP, Oregon
Churchill: Anderson lacks the stuff and upside of other available college arms, including Kentucky's Alex Meyer, but he's athletic and polished and could be in the majors by the end of 2012 or early in 2013. He has a funky delivery but also a loose arm and when he commands his fastball he's tough to square up. He has two breaking balls, though both are inconsistent and he generally induced swings and misses from the change in speed more than a sharp, late break. If he can add to one of them -- more likely the curveball since he likes to pitch up in the zone a bit -- and find a better feel for a changeup, he could be a mid-rotation starter. More likely he's a back-end arm or a reliever, but one that helps the Rockies sooner than later.
[h6]Toronto Blue Jays[/h6]
Tyler Beede, RHP, Lawrence Academy (Groton, Mass.)
Churchill: The Blue Jays have extra picks but went with some upside with Beede, who could be a tough sign due to a strong commitment to Vanderbilt. He sits in the low-90s and improved his breaking ball this season, which now profiles as an above-average pitch in time. Toronto took righty Aaron Sanchez last year and now add Beede to its crop of young pitchers. It appears Toronto drafted for value here as many of the top college arms are already off the board, except for Kentucky's Alex Meyer.
[h6]St. Louis Cardinals[/h6]
Kolten Wong, 2B, Hawaii
Churchill: The Cardinals passed on Alex Meyer (the best available college pitcher) and prep arms Taylor Guerrieri and Dillon Howard to take Wong, a second baseman with an above-average hit tool. He lacks power, however, so he comes with limited upside. He's an average runner and an average defender but has good hands and could develop into a plus glove. St. Louis went for probability here rather than best player available.
[h6]Washington Nationals[/h6]
Alex Meyer, RHP, Kentucky
Churchill: They tabbed Rendon at No. 6 and went pitching here with the best available college starter in Meyer. He brings big upside with a plus fastball-slider combo. He's 6-foot-9 and when he keeps his delivery together is dominant and uses the slider to put batters away. There's a chance he's a closer in the future but he holds his velocity well despite some inconsistencies with his command. The Nationals, if we dream for a second, could have four perennial All-Stars out of the past three first rounds in Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper, Rendon and Meyer, with an above-average closer in Drew Storen.
[h6]Tampa Bay Rays[/h6]
Taylor Guerrieri, RHP, Spring Valley HS (Columbia, S.C.)
Churchill: The Rays have 10 of the next 37 picks and certainly didn't go signability here with Guerrieri, who has a commitment to South Carolina. Keith Law ranks him as the No. 3 prep arm in the class, and a scout I spoke to early this season called him a prototypical starter in today's game thanks to a 92-95 mph fastball that has reached 97. His curveball is plus and he's got some athleticism. Tampa got the best player available here, a good start to its busy day.
[h6]San Diego Padres[/h6]
Joe Ross, RHP, Bishop O'Dowd HS (Oakland, Calif.)
Churchill: Ross may have been the best player on the board. He's not as projectable as his brother Tyson -- who pitches for the A's -- was at the same age, but comes with better command and mechanics. Scouts rave about his delivery and arm action, which suggests he's a safe bet to develop his pitches and progress through the minors. San Diego, having tabbed Spangenberg at No. 10, lands a potential No. 2 starter in Ross.
[h6]Boston Red Sox[/h6]
Blake Swihart, C, Cleveland HS (Rio Rancho, N.M.)
Churchill: The Red Sox get perhaps the top catcher in the class in Swihart, though there are some questions about his defense. The tools are there and his bat may play in a corner outfield spot if he can't cut it behind the plate. The Red Sox farm system now has a little bit of everything by adding Swihart, a switch-hitting catcher.
[h6]Cincinnati Reds[/h6]
Robert Stephenson, RHP, Alhambra (Calif.) HS
Churchill: With many of the college arms off the board, the Reds dug into the prep ranks for Stephenson, who touches 94 mph and complements his heater with a promising curveball. There's some effort in his delivery but he's a good athlete and a smart kid on and off the field. His commitment to Washington is strong, but he's considered signable and gives the Reds a young arm with upside.
[h6]Atlanta Braves[/h6]
Sean Gilmartin, LHP, Florida State
Churchill: Gilmartin gets by with average velocity touching the low 90s by relying on an advanced feel for pitching. His changeup is a plus offering but his curveball is soft, prompting some scouts to compare him to Mariners lefty Jason Vargas. In other words, a No. 4 starter. The Braves have Mike Minor, Julio Teheran and Arodys Vizcaino nearing the big leagues, so their pick of Gilmartin was all about drafting a player that would sign for MLB's recommended bonus for this slot.
[h6]San Francisco[/h6]
Joe Panik, SS, St. John's
Churchill: Panik may have to move to second base due to a below-average arm, but projects to hit for some average as he works counts and shows good pitch recognition. There's not much future power in the bat, however, which could make it difficult for him to crack the starting lineup in San Francisco. The Giants appear to have gone for a slot signing here and several players rank ahead of Panik on Law's Top 100.
[h6]Minnesota Twins[/h6]
Levi Michael, SS, North Carolina
Churchill: Michael is the top college shortstop in the class and the Twins may be pairing him with import Tsuyoshi Nishioka in the middle of the infield in a few years. Michael runs well and handles shortstop, but his bat is his best tool and he projects to hit for average and get on base thanks to an ability to use the whole field. The Twins passed on some prep arms but didn't reach for the college pitcher as some expected.
[h6]Tampa Bay Rays[/h6]
Mikie Mahtook, OF, LSU
Churchill: Mahtook's "slide" ends with the Rays, who now have two strong picks with eight remaining tonight. Mahtook can play center field and has a good arm and his power ticked up this season in a strong conference despite the change in bats at the college level. He was generally projected to go in the top 20 and Law had him as high as No. 14 to the Marlins and No. 9 to the Cubs in previous mock drafts. The Rays may have drafted B.J. Upton's replacement, depending on the future status of Desmond Jennings.
[h6]Tampa Bay Rays[/h6]
Jake Hager, SS, Sierra Vista (Nev.) HS
Churchill: The Rays reached here for Hager, a shortstop that most scouts believe needs to go to school and make another run at it in a few years. He's a shortstop with a chance to stay there, but the bat lacks polish and he's merely an adequate overall athlete for the position.
[h6]Texas Rangers[/h6]
Kevin Matthews, LHP, Richmond Hill (Ga.) HS
Churchill: The Rangers dig for Matthews, a left-hander committed to the University of Virginia who may very well choose school, despite a seven-figure bonus in the offing. He's likely a reliever in the future, but he has athleticism and above-average velocity. The Rangers have a pick in the compensation round and may choose to go over slot for the right talent with that selection.
Analysis of the compensation round.
Spoiler [+]
Picks 34 through 38
The Nationals, at No. 34, get Brian Goodwin, an athletic outfielder with plus speed and the ability to square up line drives and even hit for some power. ... The Red Sox's pick of prep lefty Henry Owens is another strong selection for the club. Owens is projectable and might have front-line upside. ... The Rangers get the toolsy Zach Cone, who has yet to turn his physical skills into baseball performance. ... Tampa's selection of Brandon Martin adds another potential future shortstop to its system along with Tim Beckham and first-round pick Jake Hager. ... Toronto, at No. 35, reached for Jacob Anderson, but the team has several picks Monday and there is some upside in the outfielder's right-handed bat.
Picks 39 through 43
The Phillies love toolsy players but their top pick two years in a row has been off that trend. Larry Greene has plus power and should be adequate in a corner outfield spot. He's considered an easy sign. ... Jackie Bradley could be the next All-Star center fielder in Boston, and might have gone in the top 20 had it not been for an injury and some stuggles at the plate this spring. ... The Rays get Tyler Goeddel, who profiles better in the outfield than at third base, but there's some upside at the plate, including the potential for above-average power. ... Jeff Ames is a junior college kid with some upside, and at 6-foot-4 and 225 pounds, he has the size to profile in the rotation for the Rays. ... Andrew Chafin, who returned from Tommy John surgery to have a strong season, could be a mid-rotation starter and adds to the crop of legitimate pitching prospects the D-backs have added on Day 1.
Picks 44 through 48
Michael Fulmer gives the Mets another prep kid, but his fastball velocity -- up to 96 mph -- might make him a difficult sign with his commitment to Arkansas. Daniel Norris is still available at this point but might want more than the Mets want to spend, despite the belief that they'd be willing to go over slot at 44. ... Trevor Story, who has a commitment to LSU, could be a tough sign for the Rockies, but he is a solid defender at shortstop and has some strength to offer at the plate, although the questions about the hit tool remain. ... Joe Musgrove gives the Jays a big right-hander with a heavy sinker and a solid delivery, but he currently lacks a breaking ball. ... Keenyn Walker is an upside play for the White Sox and can switch hit with some raw pop. ... Michael Kelly is a projectable right-hander the Padres can pair with first-rounder Joe Ross down the line.
Picks 49 through 53
The Giants go back to the prep ranks after adding a college infielder in the first round. Kyle Crick is a solid, mid-rotation candidate with a plus fastball, but his secondary stuff needs work and he might be a long-term project. ... The Twins get a solid bat in Travis Harrison. He has power and had a chance to go in Round 1, but fell likely because his future is at first base. ... The Yankees added Dante Bichette, whose father of the same name played in the big leagues. He has good makeup and is a future outfielder with a strong arm and some power potential. The hit tool is a question, however. ... Blake Snell is a projectable lefty who touched 94 mph late this spring and is considered a signable player, hence his selection a little higher than his grades suggest. The Rays, however, love the Pacific Northwest, having taken Josh Sale and Drew Vettleson out of the area last spring. ... Dwight Smith, the son of former Cubs outfielder Dwight Smith Sr., is stronger than his father and might have more natural power. He profiles as a left fielder.
Picks 54 through 60
Brett Austin has a solid swing from both sides and a decent chance to stick at catcher for San Diego. He's athletic, so the outfield is also a possibility. ... The Twins get Hudson Boyd, who has touched the mid-90s with his fastball, and he's shown a feel for a slurvy breaking ball that is above average when he stays on top of it. Many believe he's a reliever in the end. ... Kes Carter is among the top smaller-college talents in the country, has some tools and profiles well defensively in a corner outfield spot. The Rays could afford to take a chance on his upside with their plethora of picks. ... The Jays snagged Kevin Comer, a Vanderbilt commit who might be tough to sign. He sits in the 90-93 mph range with his fastball and throws both a slider and curveball, but his command is below average. ... The Padres went for a college shortstop in Jace Peterson, but scouts worry about his ability to hit for average going forward, and the power grades below average. ... At No. 59, the Rays get Grayson Garvin, a 6-foot-6 left-hander with some projection left and a strong recent track record of progress and performance. ... With their 10th pick of the day, the Rays complete the sandwich round by selecting James Harris, an athletic outfielder from the Bay Area. He has all the tools, including above-average bat speed, but is considered raw at the plate. The Rays, considering they couldn't come in and spend $30 million on their first-day picks, have done well to spread out their selections among upside talent in filling gaps in their farm system.
The Nationals, at No. 34, get Brian Goodwin, an athletic outfielder with plus speed and the ability to square up line drives and even hit for some power. ... The Red Sox's pick of prep lefty Henry Owens is another strong selection for the club. Owens is projectable and might have front-line upside. ... The Rangers get the toolsy Zach Cone, who has yet to turn his physical skills into baseball performance. ... Tampa's selection of Brandon Martin adds another potential future shortstop to its system along with Tim Beckham and first-round pick Jake Hager. ... Toronto, at No. 35, reached for Jacob Anderson, but the team has several picks Monday and there is some upside in the outfielder's right-handed bat.
Picks 39 through 43
The Phillies love toolsy players but their top pick two years in a row has been off that trend. Larry Greene has plus power and should be adequate in a corner outfield spot. He's considered an easy sign. ... Jackie Bradley could be the next All-Star center fielder in Boston, and might have gone in the top 20 had it not been for an injury and some stuggles at the plate this spring. ... The Rays get Tyler Goeddel, who profiles better in the outfield than at third base, but there's some upside at the plate, including the potential for above-average power. ... Jeff Ames is a junior college kid with some upside, and at 6-foot-4 and 225 pounds, he has the size to profile in the rotation for the Rays. ... Andrew Chafin, who returned from Tommy John surgery to have a strong season, could be a mid-rotation starter and adds to the crop of legitimate pitching prospects the D-backs have added on Day 1.
Picks 44 through 48
Michael Fulmer gives the Mets another prep kid, but his fastball velocity -- up to 96 mph -- might make him a difficult sign with his commitment to Arkansas. Daniel Norris is still available at this point but might want more than the Mets want to spend, despite the belief that they'd be willing to go over slot at 44. ... Trevor Story, who has a commitment to LSU, could be a tough sign for the Rockies, but he is a solid defender at shortstop and has some strength to offer at the plate, although the questions about the hit tool remain. ... Joe Musgrove gives the Jays a big right-hander with a heavy sinker and a solid delivery, but he currently lacks a breaking ball. ... Keenyn Walker is an upside play for the White Sox and can switch hit with some raw pop. ... Michael Kelly is a projectable right-hander the Padres can pair with first-rounder Joe Ross down the line.
Picks 49 through 53
The Giants go back to the prep ranks after adding a college infielder in the first round. Kyle Crick is a solid, mid-rotation candidate with a plus fastball, but his secondary stuff needs work and he might be a long-term project. ... The Twins get a solid bat in Travis Harrison. He has power and had a chance to go in Round 1, but fell likely because his future is at first base. ... The Yankees added Dante Bichette, whose father of the same name played in the big leagues. He has good makeup and is a future outfielder with a strong arm and some power potential. The hit tool is a question, however. ... Blake Snell is a projectable lefty who touched 94 mph late this spring and is considered a signable player, hence his selection a little higher than his grades suggest. The Rays, however, love the Pacific Northwest, having taken Josh Sale and Drew Vettleson out of the area last spring. ... Dwight Smith, the son of former Cubs outfielder Dwight Smith Sr., is stronger than his father and might have more natural power. He profiles as a left fielder.
Picks 54 through 60
Brett Austin has a solid swing from both sides and a decent chance to stick at catcher for San Diego. He's athletic, so the outfield is also a possibility. ... The Twins get Hudson Boyd, who has touched the mid-90s with his fastball, and he's shown a feel for a slurvy breaking ball that is above average when he stays on top of it. Many believe he's a reliever in the end. ... Kes Carter is among the top smaller-college talents in the country, has some tools and profiles well defensively in a corner outfield spot. The Rays could afford to take a chance on his upside with their plethora of picks. ... The Jays snagged Kevin Comer, a Vanderbilt commit who might be tough to sign. He sits in the 90-93 mph range with his fastball and throws both a slider and curveball, but his command is below average. ... The Padres went for a college shortstop in Jace Peterson, but scouts worry about his ability to hit for average going forward, and the power grades below average. ... At No. 59, the Rays get Grayson Garvin, a 6-foot-6 left-hander with some projection left and a strong recent track record of progress and performance. ... With their 10th pick of the day, the Rays complete the sandwich round by selecting James Harris, an athletic outfielder from the Bay Area. He has all the tools, including above-average bat speed, but is considered raw at the plate. The Rays, considering they couldn't come in and spend $30 million on their first-day picks, have done well to spread out their selections among upside talent in filling gaps in their farm system.
Seven days rest theory.
Spoiler [+]
Trevor Bauer's 3-1 win over Fresno State on Saturday looked no different than any of his other starts this year. The UCLA right-hander fanned 14 batters, walked two, yielded just six hits, hiked his season record to 13-2, dropped his ERA to 1.25 and tallied his ninth straight complete game. The skinny 20-year-old flashed another number, though, that was right in line with his season average, one that has MLB draft hounds wincing even as Bauer looks ready to be a top-10 pick: 133 pitches.
The rise in pitch count awareness across all levels of baseball makes people panic when they see a college pitcher racking up 130-plus pitches per start; doubly so when the guy doing it skews much closer to Tim Lincecum than Roger Clemens at 6-foot-1, and only 175 pounds. But Bauer's situation is different. He pitches just once a week, taking the mound every Saturday for the Bruins. Meanwhile, the benefits to his team are huge: Every Saturday, UCLA knows it has one of the nation's best pitchers ready to go nine innings and give the bullpen a day off.
All of which makes us wonder: Why doesn't a major league team try that? Mostly because it's hard, and looks risky.
"The team trainer and pitching coach have to know the pitcher's quality of strength, quality of conditioning, what kind of a workload he can handle," said Glenn Fleisig, research director for the American Sports Medicine Institute and an expert in pitching biomechanics. "You have to choose the right guy, then monitor him very closely."
Nobody knows his body better than Bauer, and he has shown a unique ability to carry the burden of a heavy workload while at UCLA. He's a rabid student of pitching, learning the value of pitch sequencing, as well as effective velocity (a pitch looks faster when released a couple of feet closer to home plate, making a long-striding delivery and big arm extension advantages for pitchers who can pull it off). Like Lincecum, Bauer relies on flexibility and athleticism more than brute strength to generate velocity and movement on his pitches. He works out with medicine balls and resistance bands, and steers clear of the weight room.
"Bauer is trained to do this," said UCLA manager John Savage, "this" referring both to his pitcher's unique workout habits and his ability to throw complete games nearly at will. "He can handle the baseball better than anyone. You'll see him playing Hacky Sack with a baseball like it's connected to his toe. I compare him to Pete Maravich."
If anyone would know about developing elite pitchers, it's Savage. Another Savage pupil, Bauer's teammate Gerrit Cole, is likely to be the No. 1 overall pick in Monday night's draft. Another Savage protege, Mark Prior, held the Pac-10 strikeout record for a decade with 202 K's … until Bauer rang up his 203rd batter of the season Saturday.
Not just any pitcher can successfully adopt the Bauer model of 130 pitches once a week, Savage said. Using Inside Edge's statistical analysis, Savage found that Bauer's fastball velocity often increased in the later innings of games; you'd want a big league pitcher to show a similar tendency, or at least maintain similar velocity throughout his start. The other thing that helps Bauer go deep into games is his six-pitch repertoire. Even the third or fourth time through the lineup, opposing hitters still don't know what they'll see from Bauer. If a pitcher can't throw that many pitches for strikes, he'd better have one pitch -- think Mariano Rivera's cutter -- that hitters might know is coming but still can't hit.
A pitcher able and willing to take on the Bauer model of pitching could help his team in multiple ways. Giving the bullpen a night off once a week would not only keep relievers fresher, but also allow a team to lean more heavily on its better arms the rest of the week, with less risk of shoving lesser pitchers into high-leverage situations. An open-minded team with weak back-end starters could get even more creative. Assuming a now-typical seven-man major league bullpen, that team could limit starts for its crummy fifth starter and run out, say, three rested relievers for three innings each, every fifth day.
Many caveats apply, though.
Since the last few major league teams transitioned from four-man to five-man rotations in the 1980s, we've seen very little experimentation with that model. Any team that tried to break the mold would face heavy scrutiny, and any manager who tried something radically different would need a general manager willing to back his decision. Also, even the best pitchers have a bad day once in a while; a manager might have to occasionally pull his once-a-week ace, both to give his team a better chance to win and to avoid a lousy day turning into a 180-pitch nightmare.
Then there are salary considerations, which already contribute to managers leaving in struggling starters through five innings, and using closers only in save situations. Would a starting pitcher embrace a system that might limit him to 26 starts a season, giving him fewer opportunities to win games? Or would teams worry that a system which encourages a pitcher to throw 20-plus complete games a season might lead to higher asking prices during salary arbitration and free agency discussions?
The biggest concern would be managing workload and preventing injuries. A starter who throws 26 nine-inning starts in a season would total 234 innings, around what aces like Roy Halladay and CC Sabathia typically produce already. Would spacing out those innings differently make injuries more likely? More broadly, are five-man rotations the best way to handle a pitching staff?
"There's no science or medicine that says every fifth day is the answer -- it's really just trial and error over the years," Fleisig said. "Pitch counts shouldn't be used as a rule, either, but rather as a guide for when a guy might be running out of steam. There's no rule that says you can't try things, no rule that says every team has to do the same thing."
What you want to watch, Fleisig said, are microtears. Every time a pitcher pitches, a weekend warrior goes for a three-mile run, or a bodybuilder bench-presses, he develops soreness -- the body's way of alerting you to little tears in your ligaments and tendons. The body recovers, repairs those tears, and gets stronger between workouts, or in a pitcher's case, between starts. If you work out too hard, you can develop tears too big to repair. But there's no rule that says that point should be 100 pitches, Fleisig said; some pitchers might need to be pulled earlier; others a lot later.
Savage closely tracks each inning Bauer throws, looking for high-stress innings or even high-stress batters who potentially create the kind of fatigue that could prove harmful down the road. So far, pushing to 130 pitches or more hasn't resulted in injuries or ineffectiveness for Bauer.
That might be doable for certain big league pitchers too, Fleisig said. "You could get those microtears from 130 pitches and be good to go five, six, or seven days later, sure."
But?
"With some guys, 130 pitches might take you well past the point of fatigue. You develop tears that are too big. After that, you can wait five, 10, 20, even 100 days and still not be recovered."
If fortune really does favor the bold, maybe we'll see a major league team go this route one day. Who knows? Maybe the guy who'll make it work will be the prototype: Trevor Bauer himself.
The rise in pitch count awareness across all levels of baseball makes people panic when they see a college pitcher racking up 130-plus pitches per start; doubly so when the guy doing it skews much closer to Tim Lincecum than Roger Clemens at 6-foot-1, and only 175 pounds. But Bauer's situation is different. He pitches just once a week, taking the mound every Saturday for the Bruins. Meanwhile, the benefits to his team are huge: Every Saturday, UCLA knows it has one of the nation's best pitchers ready to go nine innings and give the bullpen a day off.
All of which makes us wonder: Why doesn't a major league team try that? Mostly because it's hard, and looks risky.
"The team trainer and pitching coach have to know the pitcher's quality of strength, quality of conditioning, what kind of a workload he can handle," said Glenn Fleisig, research director for the American Sports Medicine Institute and an expert in pitching biomechanics. "You have to choose the right guy, then monitor him very closely."
Nobody knows his body better than Bauer, and he has shown a unique ability to carry the burden of a heavy workload while at UCLA. He's a rabid student of pitching, learning the value of pitch sequencing, as well as effective velocity (a pitch looks faster when released a couple of feet closer to home plate, making a long-striding delivery and big arm extension advantages for pitchers who can pull it off). Like Lincecum, Bauer relies on flexibility and athleticism more than brute strength to generate velocity and movement on his pitches. He works out with medicine balls and resistance bands, and steers clear of the weight room.
"Bauer is trained to do this," said UCLA manager John Savage, "this" referring both to his pitcher's unique workout habits and his ability to throw complete games nearly at will. "He can handle the baseball better than anyone. You'll see him playing Hacky Sack with a baseball like it's connected to his toe. I compare him to Pete Maravich."
If anyone would know about developing elite pitchers, it's Savage. Another Savage pupil, Bauer's teammate Gerrit Cole, is likely to be the No. 1 overall pick in Monday night's draft. Another Savage protege, Mark Prior, held the Pac-10 strikeout record for a decade with 202 K's … until Bauer rang up his 203rd batter of the season Saturday.
Not just any pitcher can successfully adopt the Bauer model of 130 pitches once a week, Savage said. Using Inside Edge's statistical analysis, Savage found that Bauer's fastball velocity often increased in the later innings of games; you'd want a big league pitcher to show a similar tendency, or at least maintain similar velocity throughout his start. The other thing that helps Bauer go deep into games is his six-pitch repertoire. Even the third or fourth time through the lineup, opposing hitters still don't know what they'll see from Bauer. If a pitcher can't throw that many pitches for strikes, he'd better have one pitch -- think Mariano Rivera's cutter -- that hitters might know is coming but still can't hit.
A pitcher able and willing to take on the Bauer model of pitching could help his team in multiple ways. Giving the bullpen a night off once a week would not only keep relievers fresher, but also allow a team to lean more heavily on its better arms the rest of the week, with less risk of shoving lesser pitchers into high-leverage situations. An open-minded team with weak back-end starters could get even more creative. Assuming a now-typical seven-man major league bullpen, that team could limit starts for its crummy fifth starter and run out, say, three rested relievers for three innings each, every fifth day.
Many caveats apply, though.
Since the last few major league teams transitioned from four-man to five-man rotations in the 1980s, we've seen very little experimentation with that model. Any team that tried to break the mold would face heavy scrutiny, and any manager who tried something radically different would need a general manager willing to back his decision. Also, even the best pitchers have a bad day once in a while; a manager might have to occasionally pull his once-a-week ace, both to give his team a better chance to win and to avoid a lousy day turning into a 180-pitch nightmare.
Then there are salary considerations, which already contribute to managers leaving in struggling starters through five innings, and using closers only in save situations. Would a starting pitcher embrace a system that might limit him to 26 starts a season, giving him fewer opportunities to win games? Or would teams worry that a system which encourages a pitcher to throw 20-plus complete games a season might lead to higher asking prices during salary arbitration and free agency discussions?
The biggest concern would be managing workload and preventing injuries. A starter who throws 26 nine-inning starts in a season would total 234 innings, around what aces like Roy Halladay and CC Sabathia typically produce already. Would spacing out those innings differently make injuries more likely? More broadly, are five-man rotations the best way to handle a pitching staff?
"There's no science or medicine that says every fifth day is the answer -- it's really just trial and error over the years," Fleisig said. "Pitch counts shouldn't be used as a rule, either, but rather as a guide for when a guy might be running out of steam. There's no rule that says you can't try things, no rule that says every team has to do the same thing."
What you want to watch, Fleisig said, are microtears. Every time a pitcher pitches, a weekend warrior goes for a three-mile run, or a bodybuilder bench-presses, he develops soreness -- the body's way of alerting you to little tears in your ligaments and tendons. The body recovers, repairs those tears, and gets stronger between workouts, or in a pitcher's case, between starts. If you work out too hard, you can develop tears too big to repair. But there's no rule that says that point should be 100 pitches, Fleisig said; some pitchers might need to be pulled earlier; others a lot later.
Savage closely tracks each inning Bauer throws, looking for high-stress innings or even high-stress batters who potentially create the kind of fatigue that could prove harmful down the road. So far, pushing to 130 pitches or more hasn't resulted in injuries or ineffectiveness for Bauer.
That might be doable for certain big league pitchers too, Fleisig said. "You could get those microtears from 130 pitches and be good to go five, six, or seven days later, sure."
But?
"With some guys, 130 pitches might take you well past the point of fatigue. You develop tears that are too big. After that, you can wait five, 10, 20, even 100 days and still not be recovered."
If fortune really does favor the bold, maybe we'll see a major league team go this route one day. Who knows? Maybe the guy who'll make it work will be the prototype: Trevor Bauer himself.
The Freak II
Spoiler [+]
A word of advice: See this kid now. See him while he's still double-hopping across the front of the mound to throw the first warmup pitch of every inning as hard as he can. See him while he's still free to play catch at 380 feet -- nearly foul pole to foul pole -- while singing along to the music in his headphones. See him while he's still playing Hacky Sack with the baseball as part of his pregame routine and wearing a bleached-out, three-year-old, salt-and-sweat-stained cap and not the pristine alternate version his big league team mandates for road Fridays. See him before the codes and constraints of professional baseball squeeze every last one of his idiosyncrasies into conformity.
Dustin Snipes for ESPN The MagazineBauer ended his season with a streak of nine consecutive complete games.
You've never seen anything like UCLA junior righthander Trevor Bauer. He throws a seemingly endless variety of pitches. He subscribes to several theories of pitching and training that challenge baseball's established ideas of how to develop and maintain a hurler. He is statistically the best college pitcher in the country, a surefire top-10 pick in the amateur draft, a ridiculously talented 20-year-old with a 95 mph fastball whose main fault -- yes, fault -- seems to be that he has an arsenal of pitches that nobody in amateur baseball can hit.
So why can't many of baseball's decision-makers, those stoic guardians of the status quo, shake the queasy feeling they get from Bauer? Why would a major league front office exec, watching Bauer strike out 15 Oregon State hitters one week after striking out 17 at Stanford, say, "With the stuff he has, I've got to wonder why he has to throw so many pitches to put away college hitters." True, Bauer averages roughly 130 pitches per start, but is it his fault that he has swing-and-miss stuff and rarely gets the benefit of outs on the first or second pitch of an at-bat?
By the statistical measures that portend professional success, Bauer is the best pitcher on the board for the June 6 first-year player draft. He leads the country in strikeouts with 203 in 136 2/3 innings and had a 1.25 ERA in the Pac-10, one of college baseball's toughest conferences. His name has been on a steady rise up draft boards, from potential first-rounder at the beginning of the year to potential top five in June. Yet this kid, the most dominant college pitcher since Stephen Strasburg, whose style and stuff evoke legitimate comparisons to Tim Lincecum -- isn't even in the mix to be the top pick. Why not? It seems baseball still doesn't know how to handle guys who march to their own drum.
Here's a story: During one of Bauer's three years at Hart High in Valencia, Calif., before he left for UCLA halfway through his senior year because he was too mature to deal with another semester of high school silliness, he had an off-season routine of taking a bucket of baseballs to a local park to throw long toss as part of his arm-strengthening regimen. He walked to the park alone because he couldn't find anyone to throw with him. "I didn't have any friends," he says with the emotion of someone reading a grocery list. He threw baseballs from one side of the park to the other, each ball smacking a wooden fence surrounding a tennis court. He did this for close to a year, until a tennis coach decided to hold lessons on that court while Bauer did his throwing.
This was a problem. The tennis coach told him to stop. He refused. The tennis coach sent a letter to his baseball coach, who suggested Bauer stop. He refused. He told his coach, "Sorry if I wasn't taught to be blindingly allegiant to authority."
But that wasn't Bauer's main gripe with the tennis coach. The letter to the baseball coach included the phrase, "The unexpected repetitiveness of the ball hitting the fence." This upset Bauer's sense of order. His eyes widen, his voice rises. "How could something be repetitive and unexpected at the same time?" he asks. "If it's repetitive, don't you come to expect it?"
Enter the world of Trevor Bauer, where nothing is taken at face value.
He is a devotee of the teachings of Perry Husband, a former hitting coach who devised a theory of pitch sequencing called Effective Velocity. EV is complicated -- Husband calls it "the theory of relativity but with baseball" -- but it relies on a pitcher's ability to make each pitch look the same for the first 20 feet, at which point a hitter has to decide to swing. The deception relies on a pitcher's throwing each pitch through the same "tunnel." Bauer was not content to merely understand the concept of tunnels; he wanted to put it into practice.
[+] Enlarge
Crystal LoGiudice/US PresswireBauer helped lead the Bruins to the 2010 College World Series as a sophomore, and he was even more dominant as a junior.
According to Husband's research, a normal strike zone, when extrapolated to 20 feet from a pitcher's release point, measures 13 inches by 10 inches. So Trevor and his father, Warren, an engineer, built a metal contraption with a 13 by 10 opening. It is placed 20 feet from the mound, and Bauer throws bullpen sessions through it. In theory, each pitch that travels through the Bauers' homemade tunnel will not only be a strike but will also look the same beyond the point where the hitter must decide to swing. "I call them the Bauer Engineering Crew," says Ron Wolforth, the director of the Texas Baseball Ranch, the training academy where Trevor has spent many summers. "The stuff they do isn't in any manual. It's Effective Velocity 501."
It's not enough for Bauer to execute a pitch. He has to understand it, dissect it, improve upon it. He has to turn it sideways tilt his head and examine it from all angles. Performance is simply a by-product of process. UCLA coach John Savage calls him the Mad Scientist of Pitching. Wolforth, who clocked Bauer at 102.7 mph last summer, says, "Trevor always has a million questions. Some of them are ethereal, but they're all insightful." Alan Jaeger, whose long-toss program is part of Bauer's training, says, "He pitches with the wisdom of Greg Maddux at 33."
Bauer entered UCLA at 17 as an engineering student but has changed majors to computer science, and he leaves nothing to chance. For instance: Believing he needed a pitch that would run away from lefthanded hitters, Trevor invented a "reverse slider," which differs from a screwball in that it's thrown 87 to 88 mph, about 10 mph faster than a screwball.
For many baseball executives, evaluating Bauer is a blind leap into the unknown. Subscribing to his regimen is almost like a dare. One scout watched Bauer run over the mound to fire his first between-inning warmup pitch and said, "He's got great stuff, but I'm not Freud."
Bauer's atypical approach will likely scare off certain high-picking clubs -- such as the Pirates and Royals -- that prefer pitchers who fit the traditional archetype. Of course, it's that kind of logic that caused Lincecum to fall to the Giants at No. 10 in the 2006 draft. Bauer's response to the critics is typically direct: "Just let me do my thing, and I'll be good for a long time. When I meet with some baseball people, I see their eyes glaze over when I try to explain what I'm doing. It's like I'm a heretic going against the Church of Baseball."
And yet, the results are impossible to ignore, even for some of the highest-ranking members of the game's clergy. Start by start, inning by inning, batter by batter and pitch by pitch, Bauer has given them reasons to believe.
Sometimes, even heretics win converts.
Dustin Snipes for ESPN The MagazineBauer ended his season with a streak of nine consecutive complete games.
You've never seen anything like UCLA junior righthander Trevor Bauer. He throws a seemingly endless variety of pitches. He subscribes to several theories of pitching and training that challenge baseball's established ideas of how to develop and maintain a hurler. He is statistically the best college pitcher in the country, a surefire top-10 pick in the amateur draft, a ridiculously talented 20-year-old with a 95 mph fastball whose main fault -- yes, fault -- seems to be that he has an arsenal of pitches that nobody in amateur baseball can hit.
So why can't many of baseball's decision-makers, those stoic guardians of the status quo, shake the queasy feeling they get from Bauer? Why would a major league front office exec, watching Bauer strike out 15 Oregon State hitters one week after striking out 17 at Stanford, say, "With the stuff he has, I've got to wonder why he has to throw so many pitches to put away college hitters." True, Bauer averages roughly 130 pitches per start, but is it his fault that he has swing-and-miss stuff and rarely gets the benefit of outs on the first or second pitch of an at-bat?
By the statistical measures that portend professional success, Bauer is the best pitcher on the board for the June 6 first-year player draft. He leads the country in strikeouts with 203 in 136 2/3 innings and had a 1.25 ERA in the Pac-10, one of college baseball's toughest conferences. His name has been on a steady rise up draft boards, from potential first-rounder at the beginning of the year to potential top five in June. Yet this kid, the most dominant college pitcher since Stephen Strasburg, whose style and stuff evoke legitimate comparisons to Tim Lincecum -- isn't even in the mix to be the top pick. Why not? It seems baseball still doesn't know how to handle guys who march to their own drum.
Here's a story: During one of Bauer's three years at Hart High in Valencia, Calif., before he left for UCLA halfway through his senior year because he was too mature to deal with another semester of high school silliness, he had an off-season routine of taking a bucket of baseballs to a local park to throw long toss as part of his arm-strengthening regimen. He walked to the park alone because he couldn't find anyone to throw with him. "I didn't have any friends," he says with the emotion of someone reading a grocery list. He threw baseballs from one side of the park to the other, each ball smacking a wooden fence surrounding a tennis court. He did this for close to a year, until a tennis coach decided to hold lessons on that court while Bauer did his throwing.
This was a problem. The tennis coach told him to stop. He refused. The tennis coach sent a letter to his baseball coach, who suggested Bauer stop. He refused. He told his coach, "Sorry if I wasn't taught to be blindingly allegiant to authority."
But that wasn't Bauer's main gripe with the tennis coach. The letter to the baseball coach included the phrase, "The unexpected repetitiveness of the ball hitting the fence." This upset Bauer's sense of order. His eyes widen, his voice rises. "How could something be repetitive and unexpected at the same time?" he asks. "If it's repetitive, don't you come to expect it?"
Enter the world of Trevor Bauer, where nothing is taken at face value.
He is a devotee of the teachings of Perry Husband, a former hitting coach who devised a theory of pitch sequencing called Effective Velocity. EV is complicated -- Husband calls it "the theory of relativity but with baseball" -- but it relies on a pitcher's ability to make each pitch look the same for the first 20 feet, at which point a hitter has to decide to swing. The deception relies on a pitcher's throwing each pitch through the same "tunnel." Bauer was not content to merely understand the concept of tunnels; he wanted to put it into practice.
[+] Enlarge
Crystal LoGiudice/US PresswireBauer helped lead the Bruins to the 2010 College World Series as a sophomore, and he was even more dominant as a junior.
According to Husband's research, a normal strike zone, when extrapolated to 20 feet from a pitcher's release point, measures 13 inches by 10 inches. So Trevor and his father, Warren, an engineer, built a metal contraption with a 13 by 10 opening. It is placed 20 feet from the mound, and Bauer throws bullpen sessions through it. In theory, each pitch that travels through the Bauers' homemade tunnel will not only be a strike but will also look the same beyond the point where the hitter must decide to swing. "I call them the Bauer Engineering Crew," says Ron Wolforth, the director of the Texas Baseball Ranch, the training academy where Trevor has spent many summers. "The stuff they do isn't in any manual. It's Effective Velocity 501."
It's not enough for Bauer to execute a pitch. He has to understand it, dissect it, improve upon it. He has to turn it sideways tilt his head and examine it from all angles. Performance is simply a by-product of process. UCLA coach John Savage calls him the Mad Scientist of Pitching. Wolforth, who clocked Bauer at 102.7 mph last summer, says, "Trevor always has a million questions. Some of them are ethereal, but they're all insightful." Alan Jaeger, whose long-toss program is part of Bauer's training, says, "He pitches with the wisdom of Greg Maddux at 33."
Bauer entered UCLA at 17 as an engineering student but has changed majors to computer science, and he leaves nothing to chance. For instance: Believing he needed a pitch that would run away from lefthanded hitters, Trevor invented a "reverse slider," which differs from a screwball in that it's thrown 87 to 88 mph, about 10 mph faster than a screwball.
For many baseball executives, evaluating Bauer is a blind leap into the unknown. Subscribing to his regimen is almost like a dare. One scout watched Bauer run over the mound to fire his first between-inning warmup pitch and said, "He's got great stuff, but I'm not Freud."
Bauer's atypical approach will likely scare off certain high-picking clubs -- such as the Pirates and Royals -- that prefer pitchers who fit the traditional archetype. Of course, it's that kind of logic that caused Lincecum to fall to the Giants at No. 10 in the 2006 draft. Bauer's response to the critics is typically direct: "Just let me do my thing, and I'll be good for a long time. When I meet with some baseball people, I see their eyes glaze over when I try to explain what I'm doing. It's like I'm a heretic going against the Church of Baseball."
And yet, the results are impossible to ignore, even for some of the highest-ranking members of the game's clergy. Start by start, inning by inning, batter by batter and pitch by pitch, Bauer has given them reasons to believe.
Sometimes, even heretics win converts.
Washington rebuilding.
Spoiler [+]
The best way to judge a draft is to look back, rather than forward, because with the benefit of hindsight, we know now that the Joe Mauer was definitely the right choice over Mark Prior, and that Tampa Bay's extraordinary record for drafting and developing would be even more impressive had the Rays chosen Buster Posey over Tim Beckham.
Getty ImagesRendon's bat is close to ready, where he'll play isn't locked in.
By looking back, we know that the teams that have most closely adhered to the slot recommendations of the commissioner's office in the past -- the Astros, Padres and Mets, for example -- have had some of the worst farm systems. This is why Justin Verlander pitches for the Tigers, rather than in Petco Park.
But it's always interesting to wonder, immediately after the picks are made, how drafts will impact the bigger picture in the years ahead. Some thoughts:
1. We don't yet know exactly what Washington's plans for Anthony Rendon are, but right after the Nationals took the guy widely considered to be the best hitter in the draft, there was immediate speculation in rival front offices that he could be shifted to second base. Indeed, some of the other teams that had looked at Rendon viewed him as a second baseman in the future, because of his body type and because of the shoulder issues he's had this spring. There is debate about how much power he'll hit for, and about whether he can stay healthy -- but there is not any question, some executives say, about whether or not he's going to hit at the big league level.
Mike Rizzo says within this Dave Sheinin piece that the Nationals think third base is Rendon's best position "right now."
Which means: Stay tuned.
Rendon and the two other Washington picks on Day 1 were Scott Boras clients. Stephen Strasburg is a Boras client, and so is Bryce Harper, and so is Jayson Werth. So little wonder that there is growing industry speculation that Prince Fielder could be a target of the Nationals in the fall, when he becomes a free agent.
What follows is speculation: Imagine what the 2013 Washington Opening Day lineup could look like, if Rendon is moved to second base, Danny Espinosa is switched to shortstop (a move that some advance scouts believe should happen) and Ian Desmond becomes a Mark DeRosa-like super utility guy:
CF TBD
RF Bryce Harper
3B Ryan Zimmerman
1B Prince Fielder
LF Jayson Werth
2B Anthony Rendon
C Wilson Ramos
SS Danny Espinosa
P Stephen Strasburg
Little wonder that some of the Braves players chatted the other day, as they looked ahead toward the draft, about how Washington is stockpiling an enormous cache of talent and could be a team to be reckoned with very, very soon.
By the way: Harper blew a kiss to a pitcher after hitting a home run, writes Reid Cherner. From the video that's included in this piece, it looks like the pitcher who gave up the home run wasn't thrilled that Harper stood and watched his home run and stared Harper down, and Harper responded.
2. The Diamondbacks had two picks among the first seven and took one guy who could help them this year, Trevor Bauer, and one guy who could help them in years to come, in Archie Bradley. Bauer has had a heavy workload this spring and the Diamondbacks will measure his innings count very carefully for the rest of the calendar year, but Arizona has a chance to win; if Bauer shows he can help at the big league level in a very precise and limited role, they will let him do that.
From Nick Piecoro's story:
"They were saying this is a guy with the body of (Tim) Lincecum, the stuff of (Roy) Oswalt and the mind of (Greg) Maddux," Diamondbacks CEO Derrick Hall said.
Kevin Towers is making the right moves for the Diamondbacks, writes Scott Bordow.
3. The Seattle Mariners took Danny Hultzen with their No. 2 pick. The Mariners weren't sure, in their internal evaluations, whether Rendon's strengths as a hitter would be mitigated by Safeco Field. On the other hand, they do know that the skills of a pitcher as polished as Hultzen could be enhanced by their home field. The Mariners wanted Hultzen for a long time, writes Jerry Brewer.
4. The Tampa Bay Rays began their Herschel Walker draft and loved their haul, starting with Taylor Guerrieri, as Marc Topkin writes; he throws really, really hard, as Joey Johnston writes.
5. The Brewers are gathering momentum in the NL Central chase, and it's possible that their No. 1 pick, Taylor Jungmann, could help them this year. Milwaukee grabbed a couple of pitchers in the first round, a badly needed injection of talent for their minors. Jungmann could be a bullpen piece in 2011. "It was not part of the discussion while drafting him," Brewers GM Doug Melvin wrote in an email, "but you never know."
6. Some executives think Dylan Bundy is the greatest pure talent in the draft, and now the Orioles can look to a day when their rotation might include Brian Matusz, Zach Britton and Bundy. (By the way: Buck Showalter raised some eyebrows by mentioning Monday that Matusz may never regain his velocity).
7. The Pirates continue to stockpile pitching.
[h3]More draft links[/h3]
• The Jays took some guys who might be tough to sign. It was a wait-and-see approach, writes Richard Griffin.
• Gerrit Cole was the first player taken, as Gary Klein writes.
• The Cardinals' pick is undersized, they acknowledge.
• The Royals took a local kid, after Dylan Bundy was taken one pick before they selected. This could be the start of something big for Starling.
• The Phillies' No. 1 pick recently lost his mother, as John Finger writes.
• The Rockies drafted an Oregon pitcher.
• The Red Sox took a UConn pitcher with their first choice, as Michael Silverman writes.
• The Padres seemingly had a really good day, as Bill Center writes.
• Oakland drafted a Vanderbilt guy, and its full intention is to use Sonny Gray as a starting pitcher, and not a reliever.
• The Giants drafted a shortstop, writes John Shea.
• The Braves drafted a lefty.
• The Astros took an outfielder.
• The Twins took a North Carolina shortstop, writes Phil Miller.
• The Reds took a high school pitcher, writes Jim Fay.
• The White Sox grabbed an outfielder.
• The Indians took an athletic shortstop, writes Terry Pluto.
• The Mets took a high school kid.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Few teams have declared themselves as sellers, but as Oakland's injuries keep mounting, the Athletics move in that direction; Oakland has dropped seven straight games, and with Brett Anderson going down, Oakland now has lost four starting pitchers in the past three weeks. This could accelerate the possible exodus of parts like Grant Balfour (who might be a perfect fit for Texas) or Josh Willingham (at a time when a lot of clubs are looking to add a bat, like the Phillies or Braves). Kevin Kouzmanoff was sent to Triple-A.
• The Cubs' situation is awful right now, with the losses mounting -- on Monday, they lost their seventh consecutive game -- and manager Mike Quade feeling compelled to meet with Carlos Zambrano. Look, it's not a big deal that Zambrano said the team's play is embarrassing, a general statement of frustration, but the fact that he directly questioned Carlos Marmol's pitch selection is, in itself, embarrassing. Can you imagine how Zambrano would react if his teammates publicly ripped the choices he made in his starts, or his execution? They could maintain a filibuster in Congress, if they chose. But they don't do it because they know it's wrong and counterproductive. Zambrano doesn't know what the big deal is.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Rockies ran out a new-look lineup, as Troy Renck writes.
2. Ichiro was used as a designated hitter, again.
3. Chris Narveson will stay in the Milwaukee rotation.
4. The Twins are using Ben Revere in right field, as La Velle Neal writes.
5. The Dodgers called up Dee Gordon, son of Tom Gordon.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Brad Lidge had a setback, but Jimmy Rollins seems to be improving.
2. Jason Kendall took batting practice.
3. Dexter Fowler is hurting.
4. Jake Peavy is dealing with a mild groin strain.
5. Matt Harrison is dealing with a kidney stone.
6. Scott Rolen has strep throat.
[h3]Monday's games[/h3]
1. The Phillies are hurting, but they hung on to beat the Dodgers, as David Murphy writes.
2. The Giants just keep winning one-run games, and along the way, Tim Lincecum racked up his 1,000th strikeout.
From Elias: Tim Lincecum had five strikeouts Monday to push his career total to 1,000. He became the eighth major league pitcher since 1900 to record 1,000 strikeouts within his first five seasons. That's been done in modern major league history by Grover Cleveland Alexander (1911-15), Tom Seaver (1967-71), Bert Blyleven (1970-74), Mark Langston (1984-8, Dwight Gooden (1984-8, Hideo Nomo (1995-99) and Kerry Wood (1998-2003). Wood missed the entire 1999 season. And of the pitchers who faced the fewest batters en route to 1,000 K's since 1900:
Billy Wagner: 3,022
Octavio Dotel: 3,478
Kerry Wood: 3,609
Tim Lincecum: 3,692
Trevor Hoffman: 3,759
3. David Price was The Man for the Rays, writes Marc Topkin.
4. Brennan Boesch got to some high fastballs from Colby Lewis, as ESPN Stats & Information details: Three of Boesch's hits and both of his home runs came on pitches up in the zone. Entering Monday, Boesch had just one home run on high pitches in his career. Both of his home runs Monday were on Colby Lewis fastballs clocked at 88 mph. His only other home run on a high pitch entering Monday was also on a sub-90 mph fastball. Before Monday, that was 917 pitches seen up, with one homer, and on Monday, he saw seven pitches up and hit two home runs.
5. Zack Greinke shut down the Marlins, and the Brewers just keep on winning on the road, as Tom Haudricourt writes. From ESPN Stats & Info, how Greinke beat the Marlins:
• Marlins hitters were 1-for-14 in at-bats ending with a Greinke off-speed pitch. Greinke kept his off-speed pitches low, with 47 of his 51 (92.2 percent) down in the zone or below it, his highest percentage in a start in the past three seasons. The Marlins struck out four times against a Greinke off-speed pitch and put 10 in play, seven of which they hit on the ground.
• All four of Greinke's off-speed strikeouts were with his slider, and all 25 of the sliders he threw were down in the zone. The Marlins chased 11 of Greinke's sliders out of the zone, the second-highest total against Greinke in the past three seasons. The highest was in Greinke's previous start, when the Reds chased 13 sliders out of the zone.
6. The Marlins got swept.
7. Eric Hosmer got a big hit.
8. The Mariners got shut down.
9. The Twins won again.
10. The Indians lost again.
11. The Padres had their bubble burst.
12. John Danks won for the first time this season, as Mark Gonzales writes.
13. Colby Lewis got pummeled.
14. Jonny Gomes and the Reds had a really good day.
Getty ImagesRendon's bat is close to ready, where he'll play isn't locked in.
By looking back, we know that the teams that have most closely adhered to the slot recommendations of the commissioner's office in the past -- the Astros, Padres and Mets, for example -- have had some of the worst farm systems. This is why Justin Verlander pitches for the Tigers, rather than in Petco Park.
But it's always interesting to wonder, immediately after the picks are made, how drafts will impact the bigger picture in the years ahead. Some thoughts:
1. We don't yet know exactly what Washington's plans for Anthony Rendon are, but right after the Nationals took the guy widely considered to be the best hitter in the draft, there was immediate speculation in rival front offices that he could be shifted to second base. Indeed, some of the other teams that had looked at Rendon viewed him as a second baseman in the future, because of his body type and because of the shoulder issues he's had this spring. There is debate about how much power he'll hit for, and about whether he can stay healthy -- but there is not any question, some executives say, about whether or not he's going to hit at the big league level.
Mike Rizzo says within this Dave Sheinin piece that the Nationals think third base is Rendon's best position "right now."
Which means: Stay tuned.
Rendon and the two other Washington picks on Day 1 were Scott Boras clients. Stephen Strasburg is a Boras client, and so is Bryce Harper, and so is Jayson Werth. So little wonder that there is growing industry speculation that Prince Fielder could be a target of the Nationals in the fall, when he becomes a free agent.
What follows is speculation: Imagine what the 2013 Washington Opening Day lineup could look like, if Rendon is moved to second base, Danny Espinosa is switched to shortstop (a move that some advance scouts believe should happen) and Ian Desmond becomes a Mark DeRosa-like super utility guy:
CF TBD
RF Bryce Harper
3B Ryan Zimmerman
1B Prince Fielder
LF Jayson Werth
2B Anthony Rendon
C Wilson Ramos
SS Danny Espinosa
P Stephen Strasburg
Little wonder that some of the Braves players chatted the other day, as they looked ahead toward the draft, about how Washington is stockpiling an enormous cache of talent and could be a team to be reckoned with very, very soon.
By the way: Harper blew a kiss to a pitcher after hitting a home run, writes Reid Cherner. From the video that's included in this piece, it looks like the pitcher who gave up the home run wasn't thrilled that Harper stood and watched his home run and stared Harper down, and Harper responded.
2. The Diamondbacks had two picks among the first seven and took one guy who could help them this year, Trevor Bauer, and one guy who could help them in years to come, in Archie Bradley. Bauer has had a heavy workload this spring and the Diamondbacks will measure his innings count very carefully for the rest of the calendar year, but Arizona has a chance to win; if Bauer shows he can help at the big league level in a very precise and limited role, they will let him do that.
From Nick Piecoro's story:
"They were saying this is a guy with the body of (Tim) Lincecum, the stuff of (Roy) Oswalt and the mind of (Greg) Maddux," Diamondbacks CEO Derrick Hall said.
Kevin Towers is making the right moves for the Diamondbacks, writes Scott Bordow.
3. The Seattle Mariners took Danny Hultzen with their No. 2 pick. The Mariners weren't sure, in their internal evaluations, whether Rendon's strengths as a hitter would be mitigated by Safeco Field. On the other hand, they do know that the skills of a pitcher as polished as Hultzen could be enhanced by their home field. The Mariners wanted Hultzen for a long time, writes Jerry Brewer.
4. The Tampa Bay Rays began their Herschel Walker draft and loved their haul, starting with Taylor Guerrieri, as Marc Topkin writes; he throws really, really hard, as Joey Johnston writes.
5. The Brewers are gathering momentum in the NL Central chase, and it's possible that their No. 1 pick, Taylor Jungmann, could help them this year. Milwaukee grabbed a couple of pitchers in the first round, a badly needed injection of talent for their minors. Jungmann could be a bullpen piece in 2011. "It was not part of the discussion while drafting him," Brewers GM Doug Melvin wrote in an email, "but you never know."
6. Some executives think Dylan Bundy is the greatest pure talent in the draft, and now the Orioles can look to a day when their rotation might include Brian Matusz, Zach Britton and Bundy. (By the way: Buck Showalter raised some eyebrows by mentioning Monday that Matusz may never regain his velocity).
7. The Pirates continue to stockpile pitching.
[h3]More draft links[/h3]
• The Jays took some guys who might be tough to sign. It was a wait-and-see approach, writes Richard Griffin.
• Gerrit Cole was the first player taken, as Gary Klein writes.
• The Cardinals' pick is undersized, they acknowledge.
• The Royals took a local kid, after Dylan Bundy was taken one pick before they selected. This could be the start of something big for Starling.
• The Phillies' No. 1 pick recently lost his mother, as John Finger writes.
• The Rockies drafted an Oregon pitcher.
• The Red Sox took a UConn pitcher with their first choice, as Michael Silverman writes.
• The Padres seemingly had a really good day, as Bill Center writes.
• Oakland drafted a Vanderbilt guy, and its full intention is to use Sonny Gray as a starting pitcher, and not a reliever.
• The Giants drafted a shortstop, writes John Shea.
• The Braves drafted a lefty.
• The Astros took an outfielder.
• The Twins took a North Carolina shortstop, writes Phil Miller.
• The Reds took a high school pitcher, writes Jim Fay.
• The White Sox grabbed an outfielder.
• The Indians took an athletic shortstop, writes Terry Pluto.
• The Mets took a high school kid.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Few teams have declared themselves as sellers, but as Oakland's injuries keep mounting, the Athletics move in that direction; Oakland has dropped seven straight games, and with Brett Anderson going down, Oakland now has lost four starting pitchers in the past three weeks. This could accelerate the possible exodus of parts like Grant Balfour (who might be a perfect fit for Texas) or Josh Willingham (at a time when a lot of clubs are looking to add a bat, like the Phillies or Braves). Kevin Kouzmanoff was sent to Triple-A.
• The Cubs' situation is awful right now, with the losses mounting -- on Monday, they lost their seventh consecutive game -- and manager Mike Quade feeling compelled to meet with Carlos Zambrano. Look, it's not a big deal that Zambrano said the team's play is embarrassing, a general statement of frustration, but the fact that he directly questioned Carlos Marmol's pitch selection is, in itself, embarrassing. Can you imagine how Zambrano would react if his teammates publicly ripped the choices he made in his starts, or his execution? They could maintain a filibuster in Congress, if they chose. But they don't do it because they know it's wrong and counterproductive. Zambrano doesn't know what the big deal is.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Rockies ran out a new-look lineup, as Troy Renck writes.
2. Ichiro was used as a designated hitter, again.
3. Chris Narveson will stay in the Milwaukee rotation.
4. The Twins are using Ben Revere in right field, as La Velle Neal writes.
5. The Dodgers called up Dee Gordon, son of Tom Gordon.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Brad Lidge had a setback, but Jimmy Rollins seems to be improving.
2. Jason Kendall took batting practice.
3. Dexter Fowler is hurting.
4. Jake Peavy is dealing with a mild groin strain.
5. Matt Harrison is dealing with a kidney stone.
6. Scott Rolen has strep throat.
[h3]Monday's games[/h3]
1. The Phillies are hurting, but they hung on to beat the Dodgers, as David Murphy writes.
2. The Giants just keep winning one-run games, and along the way, Tim Lincecum racked up his 1,000th strikeout.
From Elias: Tim Lincecum had five strikeouts Monday to push his career total to 1,000. He became the eighth major league pitcher since 1900 to record 1,000 strikeouts within his first five seasons. That's been done in modern major league history by Grover Cleveland Alexander (1911-15), Tom Seaver (1967-71), Bert Blyleven (1970-74), Mark Langston (1984-8
, Dwight Gooden (1984-8, Hideo Nomo (1995-99) and Kerry Wood (1998-2003). Wood missed the entire 1999 season. And of the pitchers who faced the fewest batters en route to 1,000 K's since 1900:Billy Wagner: 3,022
Octavio Dotel: 3,478
Kerry Wood: 3,609
Tim Lincecum: 3,692
Trevor Hoffman: 3,759
3. David Price was The Man for the Rays, writes Marc Topkin.
4. Brennan Boesch got to some high fastballs from Colby Lewis, as ESPN Stats & Information details: Three of Boesch's hits and both of his home runs came on pitches up in the zone. Entering Monday, Boesch had just one home run on high pitches in his career. Both of his home runs Monday were on Colby Lewis fastballs clocked at 88 mph. His only other home run on a high pitch entering Monday was also on a sub-90 mph fastball. Before Monday, that was 917 pitches seen up, with one homer, and on Monday, he saw seven pitches up and hit two home runs.
5. Zack Greinke shut down the Marlins, and the Brewers just keep on winning on the road, as Tom Haudricourt writes. From ESPN Stats & Info, how Greinke beat the Marlins:
• Marlins hitters were 1-for-14 in at-bats ending with a Greinke off-speed pitch. Greinke kept his off-speed pitches low, with 47 of his 51 (92.2 percent) down in the zone or below it, his highest percentage in a start in the past three seasons. The Marlins struck out four times against a Greinke off-speed pitch and put 10 in play, seven of which they hit on the ground.
• All four of Greinke's off-speed strikeouts were with his slider, and all 25 of the sliders he threw were down in the zone. The Marlins chased 11 of Greinke's sliders out of the zone, the second-highest total against Greinke in the past three seasons. The highest was in Greinke's previous start, when the Reds chased 13 sliders out of the zone.
6. The Marlins got swept.
7. Eric Hosmer got a big hit.
8. The Mariners got shut down.
9. The Twins won again.
10. The Indians lost again.
11. The Padres had their bubble burst.
12. John Danks won for the first time this season, as Mark Gonzales writes.
13. Colby Lewis got pummeled.
14. Jonny Gomes and the Reds had a really good day.
Rumors.
Spoiler [+]
http://[h3]Another day at DH for Ichiro[/h3]
10:37AM ET
[h5]Ichiro Suzuki | Mariners [/h5]
Ichiro Suzuki served as the designated hitter for the second time in less than a week on Monday, but Mariners manager Eric Wedge insists it is not a trend.
"First and foremost, it's just to get him off his feet," Wedge said via the Seattle Times. "We're still in the middle of this stretch here, trying to spread out and give guys some time off."
Ichiro has just 12 hits in 71 at-bats (.169 average) dating to May 19. The move also enabled Wedge to get both Greg Halman and Mike Wilson starts in the field against lefties. Ichiro is likely to return to right field Tuesday when the M's face White Sox righty Philip Humber.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Could Bauer be promoted this season?[/h3]
10:14AM ET
[h5]Arizona Diamondbacks [/h5]
The Arizona Diamondbacks already have a farm system that boasts pitching depth, and the talent pool got even deeper Monday when they selected UCLA right-hander Trevor Bauer with the No. 3 pick and Oklahoma high school right-hander Archie Bradley at No. 7.
Bauer is known for his unconventional approach (check out this piece by ESPN The Magazine's Tim Keown), but Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic says the D-backs won't try to change his long-tossing habits, nor will they alter his approach to pitching or his six-pitch repertoire.
Bauer has a solid chance of cracking the Diamondbacks rotation sometime next season, but our Buster Olney says there is a possibility of a quicker call-up under the right circumstances:
- Doug Mittler
[h5]Buster Olney[/h5]
Quick promotion for Bauer?
10:37AM ET
[h5]Ichiro Suzuki | Mariners [/h5]
Ichiro Suzuki served as the designated hitter for the second time in less than a week on Monday, but Mariners manager Eric Wedge insists it is not a trend.
"First and foremost, it's just to get him off his feet," Wedge said via the Seattle Times. "We're still in the middle of this stretch here, trying to spread out and give guys some time off."
Ichiro has just 12 hits in 71 at-bats (.169 average) dating to May 19. The move also enabled Wedge to get both Greg Halman and Mike Wilson starts in the field against lefties. Ichiro is likely to return to right field Tuesday when the M's face White Sox righty Philip Humber.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Could Bauer be promoted this season?[/h3]
10:14AM ET
[h5]Arizona Diamondbacks [/h5]
The Arizona Diamondbacks already have a farm system that boasts pitching depth, and the talent pool got even deeper Monday when they selected UCLA right-hander Trevor Bauer with the No. 3 pick and Oklahoma high school right-hander Archie Bradley at No. 7.
Bauer is known for his unconventional approach (check out this piece by ESPN The Magazine's Tim Keown), but Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic says the D-backs won't try to change his long-tossing habits, nor will they alter his approach to pitching or his six-pitch repertoire.
Bauer has a solid chance of cracking the Diamondbacks rotation sometime next season, but our Buster Olney says there is a possibility of a quicker call-up under the right circumstances:
- Doug Mittler
Quick promotion for Bauer?
9:50AM ET
[h5]Prince Fielder | Brewers [/h5]
Many teams run for the hills when it comes to dealing with Scott Boras, but the super agent doesn't scare away the Washington Nationals. Monday's draft was another example, adding to speculation that the Nats could be a serious player for Brewers first baseman Prince Fielder this fall.
ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney connects the dots in Tuesday's blog after the Nats selected Rice third baseman Anthony Rendon, a Boras client, on Monday night. Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper, two other Day One picks, are represented by Boras, as are Jayson Werth and Fielder.
Olney says there is "growing industry speculation" that Fielder could be a target of the Nats, in part because they are comfortable dealing with Boras. One thought: if Werth could get $126 million, what is Fielder's price tag?
Last week, we mentioned the Orioles as a team that could have interest in Fielder.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Another setback for Lidge[/h3]
9:21AM ET
[h5]Brad Lidge | Phillies [/h5]
It's a good thing for the Phillies that Ryan Madson has comfortably moved into the closer's role. Injured closer Brad Lidge suffered yet another setback Monday, pushing back the timetable for a return.
General manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said Lidge had elbow soreness while throwing a bullpen session in Florida. Lidge will return to Philadelphia to be examined by team doctor Michael Ciccotti.
Lidge, who has yet to pitch this season, is on the 60-day disabled list with a torn rotator cuff.
If the Phillies do seek bullpen help at the deadline, it would likely be for middle relief. Madson has converted all 13 of his save opportunities and has finally earned the confidence of manager Charlie Manuel.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Speedy return for Hanley?[/h3]
8:55AM ET
[h5]Hanley Ramirez | Marlins [/h5]
UPDATE: Hanley Ramirez finally landed on the disabled list and is eligible to be reinstated June 14. Monday was the most confident Ramirez has sounded about a speedy return.
Ramirez says he likely won't need any rehab games, but that may depend on how he feels over the next week. In the meantime, Emilio Bonifacio remains the starting shortstop.
--
We have a plausible explanation for the dramatic fall in production this season by Hanley Ramirez, and it may result in the first-ever trip to the disabled list for the Florida Marlins shortstop.
Manny Navarro of the Miami Herald reports Ramirez, barring a miraculous recovery, is headed to the disabled list. Ramirez has not played in a week because of continued stiffness in his lower back that forced him to leave last Sunday's game in Los Angeles.
Ramirez told Juan C. Rodriguez of the Sun-Sentinel that he's felt discomfort for about a month, adding that it was the worst pain he ever experienced.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28877/emilio-bonifacioEmilio Bonifacio has started at shortstop in place of Ramirez.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Making room for Mazzaro[/h3]
8:38AM ET
[h5]Vin Mazzaro | Royals [/h5]
When we last saw Vin Mazzaro in a big league uniform, the righthander was enduring a public flogging courtesy of the Cleveland Indians. Mazzaro was tagged for 14 runs over 2 1/3 innings on May 16 and the Royals promptly shipped him to Triple-A Omaha.
Mazzaro has seemingly worked out his problems in the minors and will be recalled in time to face the Blue Jays on Tuesday night. The Royals did not announce a corresponding move to clear space for Mazzaro, but the Kansas City Star says they seem likely to option reliever Jesse Chavez to Omaha.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]A step forward for Kendall[/h3]
8:28AM ET
[h5]Jason Kendall | Royals [/h5]
The Kansas City Royals still have no concrete timetable on a return for Jason Kendall, but the veteran catcher took a step forward Monday when he took batting practice for the first time since undergoing shoulder surgery.
If things proceed as planned, Kendall should be ready to head out on a rehab assignment by the end of the month, manager Ned Yost tells the Kansas City Star.
The 36-year-old Kendall is the final year of a two-year, $6 million deal, so he may be in his final months with the organization. Matt Treanor and Brayan Pena have shared the catching duties in Kendall's absence.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Scutaro completes rehab stint[/h3]
8:08AM ET
[h5]Marco Scutaro | Red Sox [/h5]
UPDATE: Scutaro completed a rehab stint Monday and is expected to the join the Red Sox in time for Tuesday's game against the Yankees. Righthander Scott Atchison will be sent back to Pawtucket to make room for Scutaro, who was 5-for-11 in three games for the PawSox.
--
Veteran infielder Marco Scutaro will start a rehab assignment for Triple-A Pawtucket Saturday, and could be activated from the disabled list sometime within a week, reports the Boston Globe.
But how much Scutaro will play once he returns remains to be seen. Jed Lowrie is hitting .304/.349/.406 and is handling shortstop defensively. Furthermore, one of Scutaro's potential advantages -- his ability to hit left-handed pitching as a pure right-handed hitter -- is of no advantage in the end, with the switch-hitting Lowrie hitting .431/.443/.690 versus southpaws.
Scutaro has flashed well above-average defense at shortstop in the past, but at 35 those days may be behind him. He could instead serve as a utility reserve, spelling Lowrie, Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis around the infield.
- Jason A. Churchill
http://[h3]Johnson not close to a promotion[/h3]
7:55AM ET
[h5]Nick Johnson | Indians [/h5]
Nick Johnson was in the Indians' clubhouse before Monday night's game against the Twins, but that doesn't mean the veteran first baseman is close to a big league call-up, manager Manny Acta tells MLB.com.
The injury-plagued Johnson, who has played in all of 24 games last season, was signed in early March and has played in a pair of games at Double-A Akron. He is headed for Triple-A Columbus and Acta wants him to get plenty of at-bats before any decision is made on a promotion.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Pettitte happy in retirement[/h3]
7:42AM ET
[h5]Andy Pettitte | Yankees [/h5]
Any talk of a possible return by Andy Pettitte to the New York Yankees seemed to be quelled Monday when the 240-game winner said he perfectly content in his retirement in Deer Park, Texas.
"I'm not dying to be playing baseball right now," Pettitte said on the Michael Kay Show on ESPNNewYork1050. "I'm absolutely loving being home."
Pettitte's comments were far from a surprise, but it is a plausible scenario that he could be a solid late-season contributor after having a few months off, just as Pedro Martinez did with the Phillies in 2009. But Pettitte doesn't seem to have the same itch to return.
"I'm just telling you right now, I don't think I will ever pitch again," Pettitte said.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Peavy avoids DL[/h3]
7:05AM ET
[h5]Jake Peavy | White Sox [/h5]
The decision of the Chicago White Sox to go with a six-man rotation now looks like a prudent one after Jake Peavy was removed from his start against the Tigers Sunday with a strained right groin.
While there was plenty of speculation Peavy would land on the disabled list Monday, no roster move was made after he underwent an MRI examination that revealed a light sprain of his right groin.
Manager Ozzie Guillen already had planned to go with a six-man rotation until the All-Star break, an indication they were concerned with Peavy's past history of injuries. Now the struggling White Sox will go back to the conventional rotation with Philip Humber as the fifth starter.
- 4,201
- 141
Originally Posted by FRANCHISE 55
Harper
http://www.csnwashington.com/pages/video?PID=g6D1dHRyu_wq_NQKQU8ekDHGdfok0G3f
- 4,201
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Originally Posted by FRANCHISE 55
Harper
http://www.csnwashington.com/pages/video?PID=g6D1dHRyu_wq_NQKQU8ekDHGdfok0G3f
- 21,151
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Am I the only one who likes the fact that Harper is a douche?
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My boy Nick just got drafted by the Brewers
- 21,151
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Am I the only one who likes the fact that Harper is a douche?
- 3,309
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My boy Nick just got drafted by the Brewers
- 25,293
- 13,349
He's gonna get one in the ear-hole the first time he blows a big league pitcher a kiss though.
- 25,293
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He's gonna get one in the ear-hole the first time he blows a big league pitcher a kiss though.
- 4,201
- 141
Nah, I'm in the same boat. So many of the greats played the game with a certain swagger that it's almost necessary to have a kind of arrogance about yourself. Especially since baseball is such an individualistic game, though it's classified as a team sport. Now he can't be blowing kisses at pitchers, that would incite a bench-clearer in the majors, but some ego is a good thing.
- 4,201
- 141
Nah, I'm in the same boat. So many of the greats played the game with a certain swagger that it's almost necessary to have a kind of arrogance about yourself. Especially since baseball is such an individualistic game, though it's classified as a team sport. Now he can't be blowing kisses at pitchers, that would incite a bench-clearer in the majors, but some ego is a good thing.
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