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2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by proshares,
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Not saying that gif isnt funny.....but have you guys never seen a player do that before? Players have been doing that since I was a child, and I am sure much, much before that.
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Any updates on Tanaka would be appreciated. I'm still a NYY or LAD lean in the sweepstakes.
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If his agent is smart they will wait it out until the winter meetings, see what the big pitchers on the market get, and then try to get the best deal for Tanaka.
Don't see him signing until mid to late December.
Don't see him signing until mid to late December.
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60/52 is a minimum.
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Braves going to build a new stadium in Cobb County open for 2017. Just 20 years at Turner Field. Guess they want easier access to the stadium. Guess where it was in Atlanta was a hassle to get to during rush hour.
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This dude just ran into my office and said "Guess what your racist team is doing!"
It caught me off guard but then again I remembered the lease ends in 2016But nahhh fam, this ≠ easy access. Turner Field is/was more easily accessible than this new stadium will be. A lot of people took MARTA (public transit) to the game and the MARTA train isn't going anyway near where this new stadium will be. I'll make the drive a couple times a year, but it'll shut out a lot of fans that went
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So that's why they couldn't sell out playoff games?
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Couple girls I know met Arod yesterday at La Marina
They all said he was super nice but then again they're not the hottest chicks
They all said he was super nice but then again they're not the hottest chicks
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I think you have it backwards bro. I think the fact that they arent the hottest chick actually speaks more about him being nice. I mean, if they were all smoking hot, wouldn't you be saying "Of course he was super nice....you girls are super hot!"They all said he was super nice but then again they're not the hottest chicks
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^ normally that'd be correct but being he's in court and all, Arod's got the extra phony super white dentures out
Dam, got me sh*ttin on my boy now
Dam, got me sh*ttin on my boy now
Joe Mauer, First-Tier First Baseman.
One of the most remarkable things about the Internet is the speed with which news finds its way to updated Wikipedia pages. Even during the MLB playoffs, you can usually find notes about player achievements or umpire errors within a matter of minutes. MLB.com does not operate like Wikipedia, in that not just anyone can go in and change things around. But there is one similarity, in that here’s a screenshot of part of the Twins’ official roster from earlier Monday:
Somebody’s conspicuously absent. Let’s scroll down just a bit:
Monday, the Twins announced that Joe Mauer will be transitioning from catcher to first base full-time. The statement is effective immediately, and it took no time at all for the Twins’ site to update itself, with Mauer joining a new group of peers. Depending on how you feel about Josmil Pinto, the Twins are now in real need of finding some help behind the plate, but this isn’t a decision founded upon short-term team need. This is a blend, of what’s best for the Twins, and of what’s best for Joe Mauer.
Mauer, as you can see right there, is officially 6-foot-5. This puts him in a tie for the tallest catcher in big-league history, and for that reason there’s been talk of him not remaining behind the plate since before he even got drafted. Many have expressed skepticism that tall catchers can deal with the physical responsibilities and rigors of catching, and Mauer himself has been through his share of injury scares. Now he’s moving permanently before his 31st birthday. But Mauer has caught 8,000 innings in the majors. He remained a catcher for a while, and he was a pretty good one. This is less validation for skeptics, and more a response to a concussion that could’ve happened to anybody.
Just for fun, here’s a Mauer note from 2001:
“And he should stay behind the plate for a long time. But if he ever moves to first base, he’s a Gold Glove first baseman. That’s how talented he is.”
Joe Sheehan touched on the possibility of Mauer moving back in 2004. There was always a chance. Mauer did well to put it off for this long. Had it not been for some foul tips this past summer, Mauer would probably be preparing to catch another full season. As is, Mauer and the Twins are being simultaneously reactive and proactive.
When Mauer was diagnosed with a concussion, the Twins talked about the chance that he’d have to move. He does have an additional track record of some lower-body problems, so it’s not like the concussion was the first blemish. What led to this decision:
Mauer, a six-time All-Star as a catcher, decided to make the change after consulting with doctors from both the team and the Mayo Clinic. It’s a change from his earlier stance, as he maintained at the end of the season that he wanted to remain behind the plate.
But after weighing the risks, Mauer, who is currently symptom-free from the concussion, determined that it would be in the best interests of both him and the Twins for a position change.
From just a life-wellness perspective, there’s a reduced concussion risk at first base, so Mauer won’t have to worry so much about his brain. Which, in turn, means he won’t have to worry so much about his ability to live a normal life following the conclusion of his playing career. To say nothing of the benefits for his knees and back. You can still get yourself hurt anywhere at any position, but it’s fair for Mauer to think about the next 50 years of his life, instead of just the next five.
And from a baseball perspective, this goes beyond just pointing out the position adjustment between catcher and first. Obviously, a catcher who can hit like Mauer is more valuable than a first baseman who can hit like Mauer. Catchers who can hit like Mauer was incredibly rare. But that, in effect, is looking backwards. Mauer has accrued a lot of his career value to date from catching. That’s no longer what’s pertinent. Mauer has five years left on his long-term contract in Minnesota, and the question is whether Mauer projects better as a first baseman or as a backstop. Better in terms of ability, better in terms of performance, and better in terms of health.
History doesn’t tell us a whole lot — over the past 50 years, only Mike Napoli and Scott Hatteberg have transitioned from regular catchers to first basemen between consecutive seasons in the bigs. Both, for whatever it’s worth, hit better in their first seasons. Both looked excellent at first base according to UZR. The history is sufficiently limited, though, that we’ll have to try to figure this out just based on what Mauer has done.
We know he’s had some issues staying on the field, and he’s not getting younger, so if Mauer were to remain a catcher, you’d have to project him for less playing time than he’d get as a first baseman. Now, nothing’s been wrong with his bat. He just posted a 144 wRC+, a year after posting a 139 wRC+. Over the last three years, Mauer ranks fifth in baseball in OBP, between David Ortiz and Prince Fielder. It’s hard to imagine that giving up catching could help Mauer hit even more, since it seems like he’s just about maximized his skillset, but it’s perfectly reasonable to suggest Mauer might not decline so fast playing another, easier position. As a catcher, maybe he’d lose some of his ability to square the ball up and hit it on a line. He’d probably be playing through a lot more discomfort. Moving to first might make Mauer’s offensive projection not so much better as less worse over time.
Defensively, you’d think that Mauer should be just fine. He’s already gained some experience at first, doing well over 500 innings. Being a recent catcher, he possesses a broader defensive skillset than most first basemen, and now he’ll be able to practice without having to worry about all the extra responsibilities that come along with being a backstop. Mauer won’t have to go over game plans, he won’t have to study opposing hitters, he won’t have to catch bullpens or give signs or perfect pitch sequences. Playing first isn’t easy, but catching poses the greatest challenge. Mauer should make an easy defensive transition, and shedding those extra responsibilities could also help his bat a little.
The argument has always been that Joe Mauer is more valuable as a catcher than as a first baseman. Through 2013, Mauer and the Twins always agreed. They were, presumably, always right. But the future isn’t the past, and now Mauer’s older, with a concussion on his record and a decline phase to think about. A position change should keep him on the field, and in theory it should help him sustain his level of performance, given that he’ll have to worry about less. By position-adjustment alone, moving reduces Mauer’s value rather considerably. This is offset, in part, by differences in projected games played. This is offset, in part, by differences in projected wOBA. And this is offset, in part, by Mauer just not wanting to risk another brain injury. Maybe you could say they’re all being a little too cautious in moving Mauer now, after one accident. But you only get one brain, and Mauer’s pretty fond of the one that he’s got. A win here and there is hardly what’s really important.
Somebody’s conspicuously absent. Let’s scroll down just a bit:
Monday, the Twins announced that Joe Mauer will be transitioning from catcher to first base full-time. The statement is effective immediately, and it took no time at all for the Twins’ site to update itself, with Mauer joining a new group of peers. Depending on how you feel about Josmil Pinto, the Twins are now in real need of finding some help behind the plate, but this isn’t a decision founded upon short-term team need. This is a blend, of what’s best for the Twins, and of what’s best for Joe Mauer.
Mauer, as you can see right there, is officially 6-foot-5. This puts him in a tie for the tallest catcher in big-league history, and for that reason there’s been talk of him not remaining behind the plate since before he even got drafted. Many have expressed skepticism that tall catchers can deal with the physical responsibilities and rigors of catching, and Mauer himself has been through his share of injury scares. Now he’s moving permanently before his 31st birthday. But Mauer has caught 8,000 innings in the majors. He remained a catcher for a while, and he was a pretty good one. This is less validation for skeptics, and more a response to a concussion that could’ve happened to anybody.
Just for fun, here’s a Mauer note from 2001:
“And he should stay behind the plate for a long time. But if he ever moves to first base, he’s a Gold Glove first baseman. That’s how talented he is.”
Joe Sheehan touched on the possibility of Mauer moving back in 2004. There was always a chance. Mauer did well to put it off for this long. Had it not been for some foul tips this past summer, Mauer would probably be preparing to catch another full season. As is, Mauer and the Twins are being simultaneously reactive and proactive.
When Mauer was diagnosed with a concussion, the Twins talked about the chance that he’d have to move. He does have an additional track record of some lower-body problems, so it’s not like the concussion was the first blemish. What led to this decision:
Mauer, a six-time All-Star as a catcher, decided to make the change after consulting with doctors from both the team and the Mayo Clinic. It’s a change from his earlier stance, as he maintained at the end of the season that he wanted to remain behind the plate.
But after weighing the risks, Mauer, who is currently symptom-free from the concussion, determined that it would be in the best interests of both him and the Twins for a position change.
From just a life-wellness perspective, there’s a reduced concussion risk at first base, so Mauer won’t have to worry so much about his brain. Which, in turn, means he won’t have to worry so much about his ability to live a normal life following the conclusion of his playing career. To say nothing of the benefits for his knees and back. You can still get yourself hurt anywhere at any position, but it’s fair for Mauer to think about the next 50 years of his life, instead of just the next five.
And from a baseball perspective, this goes beyond just pointing out the position adjustment between catcher and first. Obviously, a catcher who can hit like Mauer is more valuable than a first baseman who can hit like Mauer. Catchers who can hit like Mauer was incredibly rare. But that, in effect, is looking backwards. Mauer has accrued a lot of his career value to date from catching. That’s no longer what’s pertinent. Mauer has five years left on his long-term contract in Minnesota, and the question is whether Mauer projects better as a first baseman or as a backstop. Better in terms of ability, better in terms of performance, and better in terms of health.
History doesn’t tell us a whole lot — over the past 50 years, only Mike Napoli and Scott Hatteberg have transitioned from regular catchers to first basemen between consecutive seasons in the bigs. Both, for whatever it’s worth, hit better in their first seasons. Both looked excellent at first base according to UZR. The history is sufficiently limited, though, that we’ll have to try to figure this out just based on what Mauer has done.
We know he’s had some issues staying on the field, and he’s not getting younger, so if Mauer were to remain a catcher, you’d have to project him for less playing time than he’d get as a first baseman. Now, nothing’s been wrong with his bat. He just posted a 144 wRC+, a year after posting a 139 wRC+. Over the last three years, Mauer ranks fifth in baseball in OBP, between David Ortiz and Prince Fielder. It’s hard to imagine that giving up catching could help Mauer hit even more, since it seems like he’s just about maximized his skillset, but it’s perfectly reasonable to suggest Mauer might not decline so fast playing another, easier position. As a catcher, maybe he’d lose some of his ability to square the ball up and hit it on a line. He’d probably be playing through a lot more discomfort. Moving to first might make Mauer’s offensive projection not so much better as less worse over time.
Defensively, you’d think that Mauer should be just fine. He’s already gained some experience at first, doing well over 500 innings. Being a recent catcher, he possesses a broader defensive skillset than most first basemen, and now he’ll be able to practice without having to worry about all the extra responsibilities that come along with being a backstop. Mauer won’t have to go over game plans, he won’t have to study opposing hitters, he won’t have to catch bullpens or give signs or perfect pitch sequences. Playing first isn’t easy, but catching poses the greatest challenge. Mauer should make an easy defensive transition, and shedding those extra responsibilities could also help his bat a little.
The argument has always been that Joe Mauer is more valuable as a catcher than as a first baseman. Through 2013, Mauer and the Twins always agreed. They were, presumably, always right. But the future isn’t the past, and now Mauer’s older, with a concussion on his record and a decline phase to think about. A position change should keep him on the field, and in theory it should help him sustain his level of performance, given that he’ll have to worry about less. By position-adjustment alone, moving reduces Mauer’s value rather considerably. This is offset, in part, by differences in projected games played. This is offset, in part, by differences in projected wOBA. And this is offset, in part, by Mauer just not wanting to risk another brain injury. Maybe you could say they’re all being a little too cautious in moving Mauer now, after one accident. But you only get one brain, and Mauer’s pretty fond of the one that he’s got. A win here and there is hardly what’s really important.
Troy Tulowitzki, At What Cost?
The St. Louis Cardinals need a shortstop and have a surplus of talent with no obvious places to fit onto their roster. The Colorado Rockies have a superstar shortstop but need more good players than they currently have. These facts have people — including noted scribe Ken Rosenthal — speculating about what a Tulowitzki-to-STL deal might look like. In fact, it is probably now the most interesting trade rumor of the off-season.
For their part, the Rockies say that they aren’t interested in trading Tulowitzki. When you have one of the best players in the game signed to one of the most team-friendly contracts in the game, there shouldn’t be a huge sense of urgency to unload said player and contract. Over the summer, I rated Tulowitzki as the 13th most valuable trade chip in baseball, sliding in between Miguel Cabrera and Stephen Strasburg. For the Rockies to move Tulowitzki, the offer would have to be substantial.
The Cardinals have substantial talent though. Matt Adams looks like a nice player, but he’s blocked by Allen Craig at first base. Trevor Rosenthal wants to start, but there isn’t an obvious spot for him in the rotation at the moment. If Jaime Garcia is healthy by next spring, the Cardinals won’t even have room for all the starters they already have, not even counting the potential for Rosenthal or Carlos Martinez to transition back out of the bullpen. The team also has Kolten Wong now blocked by Matt Carpenter at second base, and if they end up re-signing Carlos Beltran, they’ll probably have to trade Jon Jay whenever Oscar Taveras proves ready for the big leagues.
So, yeah, the Cardinals have expendable talent that is basically the envy of every team in the sport. They have enough depth that they can probably target any player they want and make a serious offer that at least forces the other club to listen. The real question, though, is should they?
Tulowitzki is a great player, even with his regular health problems that limit his playing time. Steamer projects him as a +5.5 WAR player over 600 plate appearances in 2014, and even if we knock that down to 500 PA — that’s about what his career average per season is — that still puts him in the +5 WAR range, and +5 WAR over 500 PA is better than +5 WAR over 700 PA, because there is room for the player who takes the missing playing time to add value as well. Tulowitzki paired with a reasonable backup projects as something like a +6 WAR combination. That’s excellent, clearly. Better than any possible alternative the Cardinals could explore, in terms of expected production. Tulowitzki is the best shortstop in baseball, and it isn’t even really close.
But before we simply suggest that the Cardinals should just pay whatever it takes to get Tulowitzki because he’s the best, we have to at least understand the relative cost differences between trading for him and pursuing a lower cost alternative. The options on the table aren’t Tulowtizki or another season of Pete Kozma; it’s Tulowitzki or pursuing a lower key acquisition that would represent a more minor but still significant upgrade.
Let’s start with the easiest comparison; Stephen Drew, the top shortstop on the free agent market. The FanGraphs crowd expects Stephen Drew to sign for $33 million over three years, and signing him away from the Red Sox would cost the Cardinals their first round pick in next year’s draft, which currently stands 31st overall. Let’s assume that, to actually win the bidding, the Cardinals would need to add on an extra year to that expectation, so let’s say Drew would cost $44 million over four years, plus the draft pick. If we put a huge amount of value on that pick — the Cardinals have historically been very good at turning picks into assets — than maybe we bump the total cost of adding Drew for the next four years up to $50 million.
Over those same four years, Tulowitzki will command $76 million in salary, plus a $2 million assignment bonus that he gets if he’s traded. And then, beyond those four years, he’s due an additional $58 million for three more seasons, which would cover his seasons from ages 33 to 35, plus a buyout of the option for his age-36 season. It’s certainly possible that Tulowitzki will be worth $19 million per year from 2018 to 2020, but those seasons have to be seen as a liability at this point, not an asset. For a player with his durability issues, guaranteeing years 5-7, even at discounted prices, is probably not something a team should want on their books.
So, just in terms of price, Tulowitzki already costs an extra $30 million in salary for the expected length of Drew’s contract, and then comes with some kind of negative value for the extra guaranteed years at the end. Depending on how risk averse you are in terms of long term commitments, maybe you’d value those as something like $10 or $20 million of additional costs, so we could push Tulo’s total cost up to $40 or $50 million more than Drew. Basically, he’d be twice as expensive.
But he’s more than twice as good. Steamer projects Drew to be worth +2.0 WAR over 600 plate appearances next year, which is an exact match for his career average. $44 million (plus the value of the forfeited draft pick) doesn’t get you anywhere near the production of Tulowitzki at $78 million (plus the value of the extra salary commitments), and that’s before opening the whole can of worms about whether additional wins constrained within one player should be valued linearly or exponentially. And this is why the Rockies are going to want so much for Tulowitzki. It’s not like they can just trade him, then easily acquire another shortstop at a lesser price that will give them most of what they lose by trading Tulowitzki away. He has a lot of trade value because he’s basically irreplaceable.
But that doesn’t make him infinitely valuable, and it doesn’t mean that the Cardinals should just start throwing good young talent overboard because he’s the best they can do. If we accept the projections, then Drew instead of Tulowitzki leaves roughly a +3 WAR gap, and the salary difference isn’t enough to expect the Cardinals to be able to make up those missing wins by signing another player to fill a hole. But those dollars do have value, and we’re talking about an annual salary difference of $8 million per year, not even counting the extra commitment Tulo requires that Drew would not. Even if you think that the Cardinals would have to waste that money on a free agent who isn’t a dramatic upgrade over what they currently have, that should be expected to buy them at least one win, and perhaps two if they spend it well. The salary difference alone does make up a significant chunk of the gap between the two shortstops.
And that’s before we get to the talent going to Colorado. Rosenthal suggests that a deal should include Allen Craig, Shelby Miller, Trevor Rosenthal, and a fourth prospect, with the Rockies picking up “a chunk” of Tulowitzki’s remaining contract to sweeten the pot. I like Ken Rosenthal a lot, and I say this with all due respect, but that would be absurdly slanted in favor of the Rockies.
Craig, by himself, projects as a +3 WAR player for 2013, and he’s due to make just $2.8 million in salary next year. Miller projects as a +2 WAR starting pitcher, and will make something close to $500,000. Rosenthal projects as +1 WAR reliever, and again, league minimum. The three of them combine to project for about +6 WAR at $4 million in salary, or essentially, 100% of the value of Tulowitzki’s personal performance for about 25% of the cost.
Yes, you can make a case that it’s better to have +6 WAR in one player than +6 WAR from three players, especially when you have the depth that the Cardinals have. Matt Adams could replace Craig, and not be awful. Jaime Garcia could replace Miller, and might be good too. Carlos Martinez could replace Rosenthal at closer. The Cardinals wouldn’t replacing these guys with +0 WAR players. But these would all be downgrades, and not just at those three spots, because they’d also have to replace the three replacements. We can’t just ignore the fact that the Cardinals would be losing significant value in having Adams as a part-time player and bench depth, or that keeping Miller means that the Cardinals wouldn’t have to scramble for starting pitchers when the injury prone Garcia lands on the DL again. Or that not having Rosenthal around would significantly weaken the team’s bullpen, as Rosenthal and Martinez is better than just Martinez.
Maybe this isn’t a +6 WAR downgrade, since the Cardinals have viable replacements. But it’s probably at least a +3 WAR downgrade, since in each case the replacement — and the cascade effect of replacing the replacement — puts inferior players into more prominent roles. Tulowitzki and the replacements might project out to +9 WAR or so, but guess what, so does signing Drew and keeping those guys in their current roles, and using the cost savings to find another useful outfielder. I don’t see any real way in which trading that package of players for Tulowitzki actually makes the Cardinals a better team than signing Drew, and that’s just considering 2014 value, not any of the long term value that the team would be punting by trading some of their best young talent.
That kind of price just doesn’t make any sense for St. Louis. In fact, I’d suggest that they probably shouldn’t even bother trying to talk the Rockies out of their star shortstop, even if they decide Drew is not the piece that they want. If they really want to spend $130 million over seven years on a +5 WAR player, just sign Jacoby Ellsbury as a free agent, and then use Jon Jay as bait to get a decent stopgap shortstop. Same net effect on the team, but you get to keep Miller, Rosenthal, and Adams as well.
Troy Tulowitzki is a great player, and is an extremely valuable trade chip. But let’s keep in mind the magnitude of the improvement. For basically half the salary, the Cardinals could simply sign a decent free agent shortstop and keep all their good young players, making up the missing value through adding an additional outfielder to go with Stephen Drew and not depleting their depth through trade. Or they could make a big splash by signing a different high quality free agent and making a less obvious trade that filled their shortstop hole temporarily. Or they could ship off one of their extra starting pitchers for an underrated shortstop like Erick Aybar.
It isn’t Tulowitzki or bust for the Cardinals, and there’s no need for them to pay an exorbitant price just to get the best shortstop possible. The Cardinals have sustained a winning team because they emphasized value over splash. Troy Tulowitzki would be a big splash, but at the rumored price, he’d do more harm than good. There are better paths to long term success than mortgaging the future for one player, even a great player like Tulowitzki.
For their part, the Rockies say that they aren’t interested in trading Tulowitzki. When you have one of the best players in the game signed to one of the most team-friendly contracts in the game, there shouldn’t be a huge sense of urgency to unload said player and contract. Over the summer, I rated Tulowitzki as the 13th most valuable trade chip in baseball, sliding in between Miguel Cabrera and Stephen Strasburg. For the Rockies to move Tulowitzki, the offer would have to be substantial.
The Cardinals have substantial talent though. Matt Adams looks like a nice player, but he’s blocked by Allen Craig at first base. Trevor Rosenthal wants to start, but there isn’t an obvious spot for him in the rotation at the moment. If Jaime Garcia is healthy by next spring, the Cardinals won’t even have room for all the starters they already have, not even counting the potential for Rosenthal or Carlos Martinez to transition back out of the bullpen. The team also has Kolten Wong now blocked by Matt Carpenter at second base, and if they end up re-signing Carlos Beltran, they’ll probably have to trade Jon Jay whenever Oscar Taveras proves ready for the big leagues.
So, yeah, the Cardinals have expendable talent that is basically the envy of every team in the sport. They have enough depth that they can probably target any player they want and make a serious offer that at least forces the other club to listen. The real question, though, is should they?
Tulowitzki is a great player, even with his regular health problems that limit his playing time. Steamer projects him as a +5.5 WAR player over 600 plate appearances in 2014, and even if we knock that down to 500 PA — that’s about what his career average per season is — that still puts him in the +5 WAR range, and +5 WAR over 500 PA is better than +5 WAR over 700 PA, because there is room for the player who takes the missing playing time to add value as well. Tulowitzki paired with a reasonable backup projects as something like a +6 WAR combination. That’s excellent, clearly. Better than any possible alternative the Cardinals could explore, in terms of expected production. Tulowitzki is the best shortstop in baseball, and it isn’t even really close.
But before we simply suggest that the Cardinals should just pay whatever it takes to get Tulowitzki because he’s the best, we have to at least understand the relative cost differences between trading for him and pursuing a lower cost alternative. The options on the table aren’t Tulowtizki or another season of Pete Kozma; it’s Tulowitzki or pursuing a lower key acquisition that would represent a more minor but still significant upgrade.
Let’s start with the easiest comparison; Stephen Drew, the top shortstop on the free agent market. The FanGraphs crowd expects Stephen Drew to sign for $33 million over three years, and signing him away from the Red Sox would cost the Cardinals their first round pick in next year’s draft, which currently stands 31st overall. Let’s assume that, to actually win the bidding, the Cardinals would need to add on an extra year to that expectation, so let’s say Drew would cost $44 million over four years, plus the draft pick. If we put a huge amount of value on that pick — the Cardinals have historically been very good at turning picks into assets — than maybe we bump the total cost of adding Drew for the next four years up to $50 million.
Over those same four years, Tulowitzki will command $76 million in salary, plus a $2 million assignment bonus that he gets if he’s traded. And then, beyond those four years, he’s due an additional $58 million for three more seasons, which would cover his seasons from ages 33 to 35, plus a buyout of the option for his age-36 season. It’s certainly possible that Tulowitzki will be worth $19 million per year from 2018 to 2020, but those seasons have to be seen as a liability at this point, not an asset. For a player with his durability issues, guaranteeing years 5-7, even at discounted prices, is probably not something a team should want on their books.
So, just in terms of price, Tulowitzki already costs an extra $30 million in salary for the expected length of Drew’s contract, and then comes with some kind of negative value for the extra guaranteed years at the end. Depending on how risk averse you are in terms of long term commitments, maybe you’d value those as something like $10 or $20 million of additional costs, so we could push Tulo’s total cost up to $40 or $50 million more than Drew. Basically, he’d be twice as expensive.
But he’s more than twice as good. Steamer projects Drew to be worth +2.0 WAR over 600 plate appearances next year, which is an exact match for his career average. $44 million (plus the value of the forfeited draft pick) doesn’t get you anywhere near the production of Tulowitzki at $78 million (plus the value of the extra salary commitments), and that’s before opening the whole can of worms about whether additional wins constrained within one player should be valued linearly or exponentially. And this is why the Rockies are going to want so much for Tulowitzki. It’s not like they can just trade him, then easily acquire another shortstop at a lesser price that will give them most of what they lose by trading Tulowitzki away. He has a lot of trade value because he’s basically irreplaceable.
But that doesn’t make him infinitely valuable, and it doesn’t mean that the Cardinals should just start throwing good young talent overboard because he’s the best they can do. If we accept the projections, then Drew instead of Tulowitzki leaves roughly a +3 WAR gap, and the salary difference isn’t enough to expect the Cardinals to be able to make up those missing wins by signing another player to fill a hole. But those dollars do have value, and we’re talking about an annual salary difference of $8 million per year, not even counting the extra commitment Tulo requires that Drew would not. Even if you think that the Cardinals would have to waste that money on a free agent who isn’t a dramatic upgrade over what they currently have, that should be expected to buy them at least one win, and perhaps two if they spend it well. The salary difference alone does make up a significant chunk of the gap between the two shortstops.
And that’s before we get to the talent going to Colorado. Rosenthal suggests that a deal should include Allen Craig, Shelby Miller, Trevor Rosenthal, and a fourth prospect, with the Rockies picking up “a chunk” of Tulowitzki’s remaining contract to sweeten the pot. I like Ken Rosenthal a lot, and I say this with all due respect, but that would be absurdly slanted in favor of the Rockies.
Craig, by himself, projects as a +3 WAR player for 2013, and he’s due to make just $2.8 million in salary next year. Miller projects as a +2 WAR starting pitcher, and will make something close to $500,000. Rosenthal projects as +1 WAR reliever, and again, league minimum. The three of them combine to project for about +6 WAR at $4 million in salary, or essentially, 100% of the value of Tulowitzki’s personal performance for about 25% of the cost.
Yes, you can make a case that it’s better to have +6 WAR in one player than +6 WAR from three players, especially when you have the depth that the Cardinals have. Matt Adams could replace Craig, and not be awful. Jaime Garcia could replace Miller, and might be good too. Carlos Martinez could replace Rosenthal at closer. The Cardinals wouldn’t replacing these guys with +0 WAR players. But these would all be downgrades, and not just at those three spots, because they’d also have to replace the three replacements. We can’t just ignore the fact that the Cardinals would be losing significant value in having Adams as a part-time player and bench depth, or that keeping Miller means that the Cardinals wouldn’t have to scramble for starting pitchers when the injury prone Garcia lands on the DL again. Or that not having Rosenthal around would significantly weaken the team’s bullpen, as Rosenthal and Martinez is better than just Martinez.
Maybe this isn’t a +6 WAR downgrade, since the Cardinals have viable replacements. But it’s probably at least a +3 WAR downgrade, since in each case the replacement — and the cascade effect of replacing the replacement — puts inferior players into more prominent roles. Tulowitzki and the replacements might project out to +9 WAR or so, but guess what, so does signing Drew and keeping those guys in their current roles, and using the cost savings to find another useful outfielder. I don’t see any real way in which trading that package of players for Tulowitzki actually makes the Cardinals a better team than signing Drew, and that’s just considering 2014 value, not any of the long term value that the team would be punting by trading some of their best young talent.
That kind of price just doesn’t make any sense for St. Louis. In fact, I’d suggest that they probably shouldn’t even bother trying to talk the Rockies out of their star shortstop, even if they decide Drew is not the piece that they want. If they really want to spend $130 million over seven years on a +5 WAR player, just sign Jacoby Ellsbury as a free agent, and then use Jon Jay as bait to get a decent stopgap shortstop. Same net effect on the team, but you get to keep Miller, Rosenthal, and Adams as well.
Troy Tulowitzki is a great player, and is an extremely valuable trade chip. But let’s keep in mind the magnitude of the improvement. For basically half the salary, the Cardinals could simply sign a decent free agent shortstop and keep all their good young players, making up the missing value through adding an additional outfielder to go with Stephen Drew and not depleting their depth through trade. Or they could make a big splash by signing a different high quality free agent and making a less obvious trade that filled their shortstop hole temporarily. Or they could ship off one of their extra starting pitchers for an underrated shortstop like Erick Aybar.
It isn’t Tulowitzki or bust for the Cardinals, and there’s no need for them to pay an exorbitant price just to get the best shortstop possible. The Cardinals have sustained a winning team because they emphasized value over splash. Troy Tulowitzki would be a big splash, but at the rumored price, he’d do more harm than good. There are better paths to long term success than mortgaging the future for one player, even a great player like Tulowitzki.
The 2014 Mets, Stuck In A Tough Place.
If you squinted hard enough, you could have seen this winter being the beginning of the road back to success for the Mets. Matt Harvey was establishing himself as a superstar in his first full season, highly-touted rookies Zack Wheeler & Travis d’Arnaud were getting their feet wet, and they’d be finally free of the disastrous contracts handed to Johan Santana, Jason Bay, & Frank Francisco. With what appeared to be a talented starting rotation and more prospects on the way, if they could just add another bat or two around David Wright, well, maybe they’d have something going.
But then Harvey’s elbow blew up, and d’Arnaud looked overwhelmed in his first crack at the bigs, and Ike Davis & Ruben Tejada proved that they probably aren’t part of the future, and even the team’s COO is saying that there are only four players who they “are sold on” right now (Wright and pitchers Dillon Gee, Jon Niese, & Wheeler). Suddenly the road back appears delayed by at least a year, if not two.
Now the team finds themselves in an awkward position. After five straight years of losing baseball, the restless fans are demanding action, i.e., “spending”. Yet in a division that has two of the most talented teams in the league in Atlanta & Washington and stars Jose Fernandez, Giancarlo Stanton, Domonic Brown, Cliff Lee, & Cole Hamels in Miami & Philadelphia, it’s increasingly difficult to see the Mets breaking through in 2014 without Harvey.
So the question is: should the Mets really be spending for what already looks like a grim season? If so, how? Or is this just public posturing to try to satisfy fans, a year after very nearly going the entire winter without signing a major league free agent and then finishing 13th in the NL in attendance?
Make no mistake, every report indicates that the Mets will be players on the market, with the idea apparently being to win fan support back by making a splash, similar in some ways to how they signed Carlos Beltran after three straight losing seasons headed into 2005. Most reports indicate that they’ll “spend $30 million to $40 million,” others simply say they are “under pressure to deliver,” and so it seems that the changing circumstances haven’t changed the timeline for the Mets to make some moves.
Working in the team’s favor is that with Santana & Bay finally gone, the Mets have only $25 million on the books right now, all to Wright & Niese. Add in approximately $20 million for arbitration cases like Gee, Davis, Daniel Murphy, and others, and that’s about $45 million; include Santana’s buyout, deferred money to Bay, and your usual minimum-salary 40-man costs, and Wendy Thurm estimated $62 million as the team stands today.
That’s still absurdly low for a New York team, and by Wendy’s numbers, that’s the eighth-lowest in the bigs. Of course, despite the team’s insistence that their Madoff-fueled financial troubles are behind them, the presence of a massive debt due against the team next summer makes that picture of fiduciary health less than certain.
Still, let’s take them at their word, because even spending in the $30m-$40m range gets them only up to or slightly over the relatively paltry ~$93 million they had on each of the last two Opening Days, so it’s not an unrealistic number.
This is what they start with:
C – d’Arnaud, probably
1B – Lucas Duda, or Wilmer Flores, or Josh Satin, or Davis, or…
2B – Daniel Murphy
3B – Wright
SS – anyone but Omar Quintanilla, please
LF – Eric Young, or free agent TBD
CF – Juan Lagares
RF – ?
SP – Gee, Niese, Wheeler, Jenrry Mejia (if healthy), ?
RP – Bobby Parnell, Vic Black, Jeurys Familia? Scott Rice?
That’s an offense that had the second-worst wOBA in baseball last season, and was the worst the Mets had rolled out since 1983. That cries out for upgrades, and there’s a lot of moving pieces there — Murphy may end up at first or with another team and Young could be at second, or Duda could be at first or the outfield or traded, etc. The obvious holes are in the outfield — especially because while Lagares was phenomenally impressive with the glove in his debut, he remains something of a question mark — and at shortstop, along with adding another starter and sorting out the right side of the infield.
That’s too much to fix with only the money they have available, though with Harvey on the mend and pitching prospects Noah Syndergaard, Rafael Montero, & Jacob Degrom on the way, there’s young depth here for a trade. Considering that Jacoby Ellsbury & Shin-Soo Choo seem unlikely to land in Queens, a trade might be the best way to go — since so many teams will want to avoid huge contracts for that pair and Robinson Cano, they’ll all be in on the same second-level free agents, which will drive the prices up and make it more difficult for the Mets.
The Mets shouldn’t be going overboard on making 2014 a winning season at the expense of their future, but unlike when we looked at Houston last week, they are at least close enough that veterans they sign to multi-year deals might conceivably be a part of the next good Mets team.
Let’s go down that list of needs.
1. Shortstop. Mets fans want Troy Tulowitzki. Mets fans will be disappointed, because even if Colorado was willing to move their superstar — which still appears unlikely — the Mets have far too many holes to spend both their budget and their farm system on him. Besides, with the Cardinals clearly in need of a shortstop, and likely to prefer trading a pitcher than dipping into the market, it will be difficult for New York to beat them out for a good option here.
That puts them into the free agent market, and Jhonny Peralta & Stephen Drew both represent solutions. The Mets have a protected first round pick, so Drew’s qualifying offer shouldn’t scare them off, and any Mets fan who shies away from Peralta’s PED suspension must not have been watching Marlon Byrd play so well for them last year. Drew is both younger and a far better fielder, which this Mets team could use.
You said 3/$33m in your crowd-sourcing; Jon Heyman and an agent said three for slightly higher. We’ll say 3/$36m, giving the team a solid left-side pair with Wright and a huge upgrade from Tejada & Quintanilla, especially since they have no shortstop prospects who are even close.
2. Left field. Duda is in theory an option here, but he’s such a terrible defensive outfielder that he really ought to keep his low-cost mix of “patience and some power” to first base, with Davis moving on. Young was a nice find, but a .290 wOBA means that he’s far more useful as a speed option off the bench rather than as a starter.
Fortunately, the market bears some choices here. Yes, a Beltran return would be fun, but he’s far more likely to land in the American League and/or with a team that has a chance to win right now, and Nelson Cruz‘ combination of poor defense and high price makes him a less than ideal fit. A return engagement with Byrd may work, but if the goal here is to make some headlines, convincing Curtis Granderson to stay in New York might be worthwhile. (This assumes he declines his qualifying offer, as is likely.)
Granderson’s defense is stretched in center at this point, but he’d make a fine corner outfielder, and questions about his health along with the qualifying offer ought to keep his salary down. While he may not have quite as many homers away from Yankee Stadium’s right field porch, his home/road splits aren’t nearly as profound as many believe. (35 of his 43 2012 homers would have been out in Citi Field.) You said 4/$56m, and that aligns with the annual average of Heyman’s trio.
3. Right field. Ignoring backloading for the moment, we’ve spent $27m already and filled two spots, so you can see how little $30m to $40m really is these days. This is where it’s time to get a bit creative, and investigate trading Davis as a buy-low appeal for someone else as well as using some of that young pitching depth.
We’ve been hearing rumors about Andre Ethier to the Mets for perhaps forever, but it’s difficult to see what the Mets could spare that the Dodgers would want. “Davis for Norichika Aoki” has been floated, and makes some amount of sense; while the Mets risk coming out on the short end should Davis blossom, especially since Aoki has only one year of control remaining, it seems clear that a change in scenery is best for both sides. Aoki is no star, but he’s a solid outfielder with speed and on-base skills, one who can lead off and is at least preferable to a year of Matt den Dekker or Kirk Nieuwenhuis — and who costs just under $2 million.
Should the Mets want to make some real noise, they could skimp elsewhere or pass on Granderson to try and wrangle Jose Bautista out of Toronto. Bautista, who was a Met for a matter of minutes on July 30, 2004, would bring them the power bat they so desperately need, but would likely cost them Wheeler or Syndergaard, plus more. Or if the Brewers decide they can’t go on with Ryan Braun… well, that’s another post entirely.
4. Starting pitcher. The Mets shouldn’t and likely won’t be in on the Ervin Santanas, Matt Garzas, and Ricky Nolascos of the world, and how much they have to spend here depends on what they do on offense, which is clearly a higher priority. Like everyone else, they’d love an ace, but since the priority here has to be offense and there’s only so much they can do in one winter, they likely need to focus on making sure they don’t need to rely on the 2014 equivalents of Aaron Laffey, Collin McHugh, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Carlos Torres in the rotation.
That means the names here aren’t especially exciting, but if the emphasis is reliability and durability, they could do worse than a Bronson Arroyo, who really needs to be in a pitcher park but is good for 200 innings a year. Failing that, perhaps this is a fit for a Jason Vargas, or a Tim Hudson, or a Josh Johnson, but likely not the deep end of the pool.
The Mets would still need to find some low-cost bullpen options and ideally some kind of better d’Arnaud partner than Anthony Recker, and this is still a flawed team regardless. Still, there’s ways they can make this apparent spending spree effective, not only by helping to regain some fan trust in 2014, but by acquiring guys who should still be useful in 2015 and 2016, when the younger players have hopefully taken a step forward and Wright will still be in his prime.
It’s not perfect, but it’s the Mets; few things are.
But then Harvey’s elbow blew up, and d’Arnaud looked overwhelmed in his first crack at the bigs, and Ike Davis & Ruben Tejada proved that they probably aren’t part of the future, and even the team’s COO is saying that there are only four players who they “are sold on” right now (Wright and pitchers Dillon Gee, Jon Niese, & Wheeler). Suddenly the road back appears delayed by at least a year, if not two.
Now the team finds themselves in an awkward position. After five straight years of losing baseball, the restless fans are demanding action, i.e., “spending”. Yet in a division that has two of the most talented teams in the league in Atlanta & Washington and stars Jose Fernandez, Giancarlo Stanton, Domonic Brown, Cliff Lee, & Cole Hamels in Miami & Philadelphia, it’s increasingly difficult to see the Mets breaking through in 2014 without Harvey.
So the question is: should the Mets really be spending for what already looks like a grim season? If so, how? Or is this just public posturing to try to satisfy fans, a year after very nearly going the entire winter without signing a major league free agent and then finishing 13th in the NL in attendance?
Make no mistake, every report indicates that the Mets will be players on the market, with the idea apparently being to win fan support back by making a splash, similar in some ways to how they signed Carlos Beltran after three straight losing seasons headed into 2005. Most reports indicate that they’ll “spend $30 million to $40 million,” others simply say they are “under pressure to deliver,” and so it seems that the changing circumstances haven’t changed the timeline for the Mets to make some moves.
Working in the team’s favor is that with Santana & Bay finally gone, the Mets have only $25 million on the books right now, all to Wright & Niese. Add in approximately $20 million for arbitration cases like Gee, Davis, Daniel Murphy, and others, and that’s about $45 million; include Santana’s buyout, deferred money to Bay, and your usual minimum-salary 40-man costs, and Wendy Thurm estimated $62 million as the team stands today.
That’s still absurdly low for a New York team, and by Wendy’s numbers, that’s the eighth-lowest in the bigs. Of course, despite the team’s insistence that their Madoff-fueled financial troubles are behind them, the presence of a massive debt due against the team next summer makes that picture of fiduciary health less than certain.
Still, let’s take them at their word, because even spending in the $30m-$40m range gets them only up to or slightly over the relatively paltry ~$93 million they had on each of the last two Opening Days, so it’s not an unrealistic number.
This is what they start with:
C – d’Arnaud, probably
1B – Lucas Duda, or Wilmer Flores, or Josh Satin, or Davis, or…
2B – Daniel Murphy
3B – Wright
SS – anyone but Omar Quintanilla, please
LF – Eric Young, or free agent TBD
CF – Juan Lagares
RF – ?
SP – Gee, Niese, Wheeler, Jenrry Mejia (if healthy), ?
RP – Bobby Parnell, Vic Black, Jeurys Familia? Scott Rice?
That’s an offense that had the second-worst wOBA in baseball last season, and was the worst the Mets had rolled out since 1983. That cries out for upgrades, and there’s a lot of moving pieces there — Murphy may end up at first or with another team and Young could be at second, or Duda could be at first or the outfield or traded, etc. The obvious holes are in the outfield — especially because while Lagares was phenomenally impressive with the glove in his debut, he remains something of a question mark — and at shortstop, along with adding another starter and sorting out the right side of the infield.
That’s too much to fix with only the money they have available, though with Harvey on the mend and pitching prospects Noah Syndergaard, Rafael Montero, & Jacob Degrom on the way, there’s young depth here for a trade. Considering that Jacoby Ellsbury & Shin-Soo Choo seem unlikely to land in Queens, a trade might be the best way to go — since so many teams will want to avoid huge contracts for that pair and Robinson Cano, they’ll all be in on the same second-level free agents, which will drive the prices up and make it more difficult for the Mets.
The Mets shouldn’t be going overboard on making 2014 a winning season at the expense of their future, but unlike when we looked at Houston last week, they are at least close enough that veterans they sign to multi-year deals might conceivably be a part of the next good Mets team.
Let’s go down that list of needs.
1. Shortstop. Mets fans want Troy Tulowitzki. Mets fans will be disappointed, because even if Colorado was willing to move their superstar — which still appears unlikely — the Mets have far too many holes to spend both their budget and their farm system on him. Besides, with the Cardinals clearly in need of a shortstop, and likely to prefer trading a pitcher than dipping into the market, it will be difficult for New York to beat them out for a good option here.
That puts them into the free agent market, and Jhonny Peralta & Stephen Drew both represent solutions. The Mets have a protected first round pick, so Drew’s qualifying offer shouldn’t scare them off, and any Mets fan who shies away from Peralta’s PED suspension must not have been watching Marlon Byrd play so well for them last year. Drew is both younger and a far better fielder, which this Mets team could use.
You said 3/$33m in your crowd-sourcing; Jon Heyman and an agent said three for slightly higher. We’ll say 3/$36m, giving the team a solid left-side pair with Wright and a huge upgrade from Tejada & Quintanilla, especially since they have no shortstop prospects who are even close.
2. Left field. Duda is in theory an option here, but he’s such a terrible defensive outfielder that he really ought to keep his low-cost mix of “patience and some power” to first base, with Davis moving on. Young was a nice find, but a .290 wOBA means that he’s far more useful as a speed option off the bench rather than as a starter.
Fortunately, the market bears some choices here. Yes, a Beltran return would be fun, but he’s far more likely to land in the American League and/or with a team that has a chance to win right now, and Nelson Cruz‘ combination of poor defense and high price makes him a less than ideal fit. A return engagement with Byrd may work, but if the goal here is to make some headlines, convincing Curtis Granderson to stay in New York might be worthwhile. (This assumes he declines his qualifying offer, as is likely.)
Granderson’s defense is stretched in center at this point, but he’d make a fine corner outfielder, and questions about his health along with the qualifying offer ought to keep his salary down. While he may not have quite as many homers away from Yankee Stadium’s right field porch, his home/road splits aren’t nearly as profound as many believe. (35 of his 43 2012 homers would have been out in Citi Field.) You said 4/$56m, and that aligns with the annual average of Heyman’s trio.
3. Right field. Ignoring backloading for the moment, we’ve spent $27m already and filled two spots, so you can see how little $30m to $40m really is these days. This is where it’s time to get a bit creative, and investigate trading Davis as a buy-low appeal for someone else as well as using some of that young pitching depth.
We’ve been hearing rumors about Andre Ethier to the Mets for perhaps forever, but it’s difficult to see what the Mets could spare that the Dodgers would want. “Davis for Norichika Aoki” has been floated, and makes some amount of sense; while the Mets risk coming out on the short end should Davis blossom, especially since Aoki has only one year of control remaining, it seems clear that a change in scenery is best for both sides. Aoki is no star, but he’s a solid outfielder with speed and on-base skills, one who can lead off and is at least preferable to a year of Matt den Dekker or Kirk Nieuwenhuis — and who costs just under $2 million.
Should the Mets want to make some real noise, they could skimp elsewhere or pass on Granderson to try and wrangle Jose Bautista out of Toronto. Bautista, who was a Met for a matter of minutes on July 30, 2004, would bring them the power bat they so desperately need, but would likely cost them Wheeler or Syndergaard, plus more. Or if the Brewers decide they can’t go on with Ryan Braun… well, that’s another post entirely.
4. Starting pitcher. The Mets shouldn’t and likely won’t be in on the Ervin Santanas, Matt Garzas, and Ricky Nolascos of the world, and how much they have to spend here depends on what they do on offense, which is clearly a higher priority. Like everyone else, they’d love an ace, but since the priority here has to be offense and there’s only so much they can do in one winter, they likely need to focus on making sure they don’t need to rely on the 2014 equivalents of Aaron Laffey, Collin McHugh, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Carlos Torres in the rotation.
That means the names here aren’t especially exciting, but if the emphasis is reliability and durability, they could do worse than a Bronson Arroyo, who really needs to be in a pitcher park but is good for 200 innings a year. Failing that, perhaps this is a fit for a Jason Vargas, or a Tim Hudson, or a Josh Johnson, but likely not the deep end of the pool.
The Mets would still need to find some low-cost bullpen options and ideally some kind of better d’Arnaud partner than Anthony Recker, and this is still a flawed team regardless. Still, there’s ways they can make this apparent spending spree effective, not only by helping to regain some fan trust in 2014, but by acquiring guys who should still be useful in 2015 and 2016, when the younger players have hopefully taken a step forward and Wright will still be in his prime.
It’s not perfect, but it’s the Mets; few things are.
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I think the Braves are gonna change their name/logo etc.
Braves have a classic jersey and hat I would like them to keep it.
Braves have a classic jersey and hat I would like them to keep it.
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No please not the name!!!
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Still don't see Tulo getting dealt, and not for a package consisting of Matt Adams,
Braves changing their name,
if it happens. Guess they want to get in front of it, because once the ******** situation is resolved, they will be targeted next, along with Cleveland.
EDIT
Didn't know ***Skins was a censored word, ...
Braves changing their name,
if it happens. Guess they want to get in front of it, because once the ******** situation is resolved, they will be targeted next, along with Cleveland.EDIT
Didn't know ***Skins was a censored word,
...
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I think you have it backwards bro. I think the fact that they arent the hottest chick actually speaks more about him being nice. I mean, if they were all smoking hot, wouldn't you be saying "Of course he was super nice....you girls are super hot!"They all said he was super nice but then again they're not the hottest chicks
Real happy that Jose won ROTY. That kid is nasty :x
- 22,885
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Surprised Neal Huntington didn't win exec of the year. He should have
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Puig got robbed?
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Nah.
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Am I wrong for hoping the odd man out in the Rangers middle infield situation is Elvis?
Should I be writing him off this early?
Should I be writing him off this early?
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