2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions

Status
Not open for further replies.
ChampCruThik said:
Reading up on Gerrit Cole's 2014 projections. Would anybody else prefer Michael Wacha to Cole.
Click to expand...

Cole has a much higher ceiling than Wacha. Cole was lights out at the end of last year, and Wacha obviously was too lol

Wacha just lacks a quality breaking ball from truly being elite cause he's got a good fastball and a plus plus change up.
 
I don't like the sound of Globe Life Park.

I wonder when the Nats are gonna sell the naming rights to their ballpark.
 
Players with much at stake this spring.

The Red Sox have seen enough in Xander Bogaerts to believe that he’s ready now, and the Indians are counting on Danny Salazar, who was so good at the end of last season, to plug a rotation hole.

There are other young players who have more at stake in spring training:

1. Shortstops Chris Owings and Didi Gregorius, Arizona Diamondbacks Theirs will be a good ol’ fashioned showdown for Arizona’s everyday shortstop job, which bears a lot of responsibility considering how the D-backs have loaded up and taken their payroll over $100 million.

Gregorius is the incumbent, coming off a rookie season in which he played decently, but was inconsistent offensively from month to month:

OPS
April (seven games): 1.226
May: .799
June: .588
July: .674
August: .513
September: .780

That sort of trend is fairly common among young players as they adapt to the longer season. But the Diamondbacks love the daily energy and preparation that Owings provided after his promotion late last season, and so the staff will go into spring training with eyes wide open. Arizona GM Kevin Towers told Steve Gilbert that the loser of this competition will be sent to Triple-A.

My guess: Gregorius might be the favorite, as Towers told Gilbert, but will need to play well in the spring to win this spot at the outset of the year; Owings might have a slight upper hand in how he’s perceived within the organization.

2. Second baseman Kolten Wong, St. Louis Cardinals. In a perfect world for St. Louis, Wong will be at least a platoon player this year and perhaps more, seamlessly integrating into the fabric of the team in the same way the Cardinals’ young pitchers have over the past couple of years. But the Cardinals have prepared a safety net, signing right-handed-hitting veteran second baseman Mark Ellis, just in case.

3. Center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr., Boston Red Sox. They love his ability to get on base and his defense, but they also know his ascension could take time. If he plays well in March and makes the team out of spring training, he'll be brought along slowly, hitting near the bottom of the order. If he plays poorly in spring, well, the Red Sox have alternatives in place, with outfield depth that now includes Grady Sizemore.

4. Third baseman Nick Castellanos, Detroit Tigers. It appeared that his path to the big leagues was blocked the last couple of seasons, because Miguel Cabrera was locked into third base and Prince Fielder was at first. But now the door is wide open for Castellanos, and it’s up to him to kick it in. Castellanos is coming off a year in which he had good production in Triple-A, but he didn’t dominate the league, hitting .276 with 100 strikeouts and 54 walks in 134 games. He turns 22 next month.

5. Pitcher Taijuan Walker, Seattle Mariners. He had three starts in the big leagues in 2013, and tossed 156 1/3 innings in all, so he’s ready for a full-time promotion to the highest level. Considering his talent, and the fact that Seattle has invested so much in 2014, Walker has a great opportunity right now.

6. Pitcher Kevin Gausman, Baltimore Orioles. He was pushed to the big leagues by need in 2013 and struggled, with a 5.66 ERA in 20 games. Baltimore is again starved for pitching, having added so little this winter, so while the Orioles may be more circumspect about where Gausman is in his development, he will have the chance to make an impression in spring training. The Orioles need help, and a lot of it.

The opening of camp is right around the corner, and the Orioles are running out of pitching options, writes Peter Schmuck.

[+] Enlarge
Joe Robbins/Getty Images
Speedster Billy Hamilton needs to work on certain facets of his game.
7. Center fielder Billy Hamilton, Cincinnati Reds. Cincinnati has bet a lot on Hamilton, and why not, considering that he is almost peerless in how he can impact a game with his speed. He’s going to get a chance in the big leagues, regardless of how he plays in spring training. The Reds need him to be a factor as the man taking over for Shin-Soo Choo in center field. But Hamilton is still learning about switch-hitting, and his development as a left-handed hitter will be really important. It may be years before his on-base percentage will impress statistical analysts, but Hamilton needs to be at least competitive as a left-handed hitter for the Reds to succeed this year.

8. Pitcher Archie Bradley, Arizona Diamondbacks. With most teams, the plans for Bradley would be cemented. Given that he is just 21 years old and hasn’t pitched above Double-A, Bradley would be ticketed to the minors under most circumstances, with a real chance for promotion sometime this year. Bradley threw 152 innings last year and was absolutely dominating, with a 1.84 ERA, 69 walks and 162 strikeouts. The Diamondbacks’ signing of Bronson Arroyo gives them the depth to go into the season without having to count on Bradley.

But it’s worth remembering the level of urgency the Diamondbacks have placed on the 2014 season, with their club-record payroll of $108 million. If Arizona is hit by an injury or two and Bradley demonstrates in spring training that he is ready for the big leagues, you do wonder if the Diamondbacks might be more aggressive with this rising young star than they initially planned to be.

9. Pitchers Danny Duffy and Yordano Ventura, Kansas City Royals. Like the Diamondbacks have done, the Royals have built a rotation with depth by signing Jason Vargas and Bruce Chen to go along with James Shields and Jeremy Guthrie. So they don't need to include Ventura. But they appear to have one spot open, and Duffy certainly has the talent to fill it, given his overpowering stuff, although questions linger about his command. Duffy has 83 walks in 157 1/3 innings.

The 22-year-old Ventura was promoted at the end of last season after a good summer in the minors, started three games in a pennant race, and had some real "wow" moments with his 100 mph fastball. Remember his debut, when he busted hitters inside over and over? Or this start? Like the Diamondbacks, the Royals have bet heavily on 2014 as a year to push through, and it figures that if Duffy and/or Ventura show in spring training that they can have an impact, they’ll get a chance. If everything is equal, Ventura should get this job, writes Vahe Gregorian.

10. First baseman Jon Singleton, Houston Astros. Wrote here last week that the pressure for the organization to win more games in the big leagues has been ramped up, after a sandbagged 2013 season in which the team spent almost nothing. That said, the Astros may well remain as disciplined as the Rays in maximizing the development time of their prospects and handling potential arbitration and free agency with maximum efficiency.

So while Singleton may have a better chance for promotion in late June than at the outset of the season, he will essentially be auditioning for a big league promotion in the months ahead. Singleton is a highly rated prospect, but did hit a speed bump last year in Triple-A, where he hit .220 with six homers in 73 games. Singleton turns 24 this year. He hit well in winter ball, posting a .933 OPS.

The Astros have a lot of guys competing at first base this spring, writes Jesus Ortiz.

Moves, deals and decisions

1. The Diamondbacks players are appreciative of the signing of Arroyo.

2. Paul Maholm signed with the Dodgers. The left-hander was on track for a strong 2013 season before he got hurt, and club sources say that at the outset of the winter, he was looking for a major league deal in the range of $8 million. But given the concerns about his health, almost all the offers he got were for minor league contracts, and in the end, he worked out a $1.5 million base salary with incentives that could raise his earnings to $8 million. The Dodgers have a surplus of veteran starters, with Josh Beckett coming back and telling teammates he feels great, and Chad Billingsley making strong progress as he prepares for a return around May.

Beckett needs to prove himself, writes Steve Dilbeck.

3. Vinnie Pestano lost his arbitration case against the Indians.

4. Jeff Samardzija settled his case with the Cubs.

The battle For jobs

1. J.J. Putz wants to win back the closer’s role for Arizona.

2. The Rays will use a handful of players at DH, including Matt Joyce, who says he put on 20 pounds this winter.

AL East

• The Rays are going to spring training with great expectations, writes Marc Topkin.

• The Red Sox still have questions to answer in Fort Myers.

• Jonny Gomes got a big Red Sox tattoo.


AL Central

• Joe Mauer is still good with his move to first base, writes Phil Miller.

• Brad Ausmus is not that much different from Jim Leyland, writes Shawn Windsor. I’d respectfully disagree. Very different personalities.

• Phil Coke is prepping for a bounce-back season.

• The White Sox are eager to turn the page on an ugly year, writes Darryl Van Schouwen.

AL West

• The Athletics are OK with their underdog status.

• John Jaso feels healthy.

• The Mariners -- who have signed Robinson Cano and Fernando Rodney and are the presumed front-runners for Nelson Cruz -- are entering a wide-open spring, writes Ryan Divish. The Mariners face a lot of questions this spring, writes Bob Dutton.

• The Rangers offered some advice to players at their academy in the Dominican.

NL East

• Bob Ford believes the Phillies can contend. In order for the Phillies to have a shot in this division, they will need the Braves and Nationals to play down to their level, to a degree. If Washington or Atlanta wins 92 or more games, I can’t see the Phillies keeping up with that without Ryan Howard returning to MVP-level production.

• If you read between the lines of this story on Darin Ruf, you wonder if the Phillies are at the point where they might consider platooning Howard.

• The Mets could improve dramatically, writes Mike Puma.

NL Central

• Here are 10 things to watch in the Cardinals’ camp, from Derrick Goold.

• Bernie Miklasz is curious about what he’ll see from Jhonny Peralta.

• Arroyo has class, but it was time for the Reds to move on, writes John Fay.

• Here’s a Q&A with Ron Roenicke, courtesy of Tom Haudricourt.

• There’s little reason to think the Cubs’ tough times won’t end, writes Gordon Wittenmyer.

• Florida is a good place for the Pirates’ hitters to get their mojo back.

• Have heard this from some rival evaluators: Stats show there is a strong chance of regression for the Pirates.

NL West

• Jorge De La Rosa wants to be even better this year, writes Troy Renck.

• Yasmani Grandal is aiming for the season opener.

A-Rod runs out of people to blame.

Until Alex Rodriguez was willing to testify under oath, there was no reason to take any of his costly legal maneuverings seriously.

But along the way, before his abrupt capitulation Friday, we needed an abacus to keep track of the attempted diversions, from the gold-plated lawsuits to the beautifully scripted I’m-Not-Going-To-Take-It-Anymore exit from the arbitration hearing to the declaration of innocence on WFAN. This was like the wizard of Oz imploring you to ignore the man behind the curtain.

In the end, none of the machinations changed the essential truth: Rodriguez broke the rules and used performance-enhancing drugs, then tried to get away with it.

A dozen other players were caught in the same Biogenesis net, including Ryan Braun and Nelson Cruz, and, when presented with the evidence, they essentially threw up their hands and acknowledged: I surrender, you got me.

Not Rodriguez, who bypassed two windows of opportunity in which he could take responsibility and accept his punishment like the other players. If he had done so, his relationships with the Yankees and others would’ve been damaged but workable.

Instead, he started flame-throwing blame at just about everybody around him. This included the Yankees, commissioner Bud Selig and the arbitration system negotiated by his union, plus, in his last act of desperation, at the union itself. His lawsuit against the union specifically named Michael Weiner, the beloved former head of the union who passed away from cancer at the end of last year -- someone who spent far too many hours in the last year of his life working to defend Rodriguez, who had cheated and lied over and over.

What a complete waste, of time, of money, of good will, of grace.

All of that was squandered without Rodriguez ever getting serious about his defense, without ever testifying under oath to support his assertions that he was innocent.

He’ll look to come back a year from now, and maybe he’ll arrange a sit-down interview in which he goes for another mea culpa, and apologizes again, says he made mistakes, says he was old and stupid. But really, that’ll be another diversion, another tactic convenient in the moment when he’s trying to win back good will.

If that happens -- no, scratch that -- when that happens, do not let it distract from another essential truth: In his handling of the Biogenesis accusations, Rodriguez acted despicably rather than taking responsibility, from beginning to the merciful end.

• A-Rod now slinks away, writes Joel Sherman.

• He should have ended the lie a long time ago, writes Bob Klapisch.

Around the league

Baseball’s winter market seems to follow the calendar like clockwork, a front-office executive noted, and there comes a time when it just slows down for good, right around Christmas and New Year’s Day.

After arbitration figures are exchanged, front offices begin to settle in, their budgets and payrolls all but defined, generally comfortable with the rosters they have assembled for spring training.

So, for free agents still unsigned, still looking for big dollars, the landscape is awful and the attitudes of the teams have changed dramatically. In fact, if you want some sense of how a lot of clubs view free agents banging on their doors for jobs so late in the winter, imagine each team as a keeper of a desert oasis: Sure, we’ll provide you with some relief -- on our terms. And if that’s not good enough, well, good luck to you.

We are in our second year of qualifying offers creating draft-pick compensation, and by now the lessons should be ingrained in second-tier free agents and their agents: As the offseason begins, you must determine what a player’s value is and make your best possible deal early -- before the decision to accept or reject the qualifying offer from your old team.

It becomes more evident by the day that at least some of the last free agents on the board would’ve been better off taking the qualifying offer. There is a lot of hand-wringing over the fairness of the current system and how it favors big-market teams, which can more readily make qualifying offers, plus how it hurts a small group of players. This winter, that group includes Ervin Santana, Ubaldo Jimenez, Stephen Drew, Kendrys Morales and Nelson Cruz.

[+] Enlarge
Anthony Gruppuso/USA TODAY Sports
Starter Ervin Santana remains one of the top free agents on the market.
In the end, Cruz might get something close to what he would’ve gotten without the qualifying offer, given his age (33) and recent PED history. But Santana’s asking price early in the winter was more than $100 million, and, considering that he was released by the Angels in the fall of 2012 and considering the concern teams have about the condition of his right elbow, a deal of that magnitude was almost certainly never going to happen. The multiyear deal the Royals wanted to talk about in September might seem really attractive, in retrospect, and so might the one-year, $14.1 million qualifying offer.

The market for DHs not named David Ortiz has all but evaporated, as Kansas City discovered when it tried to trade Billy Butler. Very few teams plan around full-time DHs the way they used to, which means Morales might not get a salary as high as the qualifying offer from Seattle he rejected. Morales has history playing first base, of course, but the fact is teams view him now as they viewed him in October -- as a subpar defender and a player at heightened risk for injuries, particularly if he’s asked to play first base regularly.

The Mets like Stephen Drew, but, in the cold of winter, the market for him has all but evaporated. The Mets are willing to make a deal -- completely on their terms.

The Blue Jays appear positioned to sit and wait until the perfect deal for someone like Santana or Jimenez -- a deal collapsed in scope and minimized in risk -- falls to them. Some teams are carefully watching the prices drop, just in case they can pluck a bargain. Cruz could go back to the Rangers, in theory, but at such a reduced price that it would be untenable.

Twenty-two players have been given qualifying offers the past two winters, and all 22 have turned them down. Next fall, that should change because it’s now cemented that late January and early February is a really bad time to be looking for a new contract when you’re attached to draft-pick compensation.

Complaining about the system, at this stage, is like griping that the sun comes up in the morning and goes down in the evening. Like it or not, the system negotiated by the union is what it is, and it’s time for the players and their agents to adjust.

• The Diamondbacks landed the starting pitcher they have sought, in Bronson Arroyo. He will benefit from the larger ballparks in the NL West.

• Joel Hanrahan is not linked to a draft pick, of course, coming off a year in which he rehabbed from elbow surgery. Hanrahan is nearing the end of that working, throwing on flat ground at about 75 percent. In a month or so, when Hanrahan gets closer to 100 percent, he’ll be ready to throw for teams and audition for his 2014 job.

Hanrahan will be looking to re-establish himself in the year ahead before hitting the market again in the fall, and the Mets could be a strong fit for him. However, closer needs elsewhere could always develop. Last spring, for example, the Tigers went into camp thinking Bruce Rondon had a chance to be their closer. But, by the end of March, that was no longer considered a possibility. Something could develop in that way for Hanrahan.

• After the Mariners signed Robinson Cano, there was some expectation that Seattle might market its second-base incumbent, Nick Franklin, in a trade. Last year, Franklin -- a first-round pick in 2009 -- had mixed results at the plate (33 extra-base hits, including 12 homers, in 412 plate appearances).

But Franklin also hit .225, with a .303 on-base percentage, and had 113 strikeouts in 102 games.

Given that performance, I asked some evaluators how they view Franklin, who turns 23 in early March, and what the best approach the Mariners could take with him might be.

Their feedback:

“I like Franklin -- don't love him,” emailed a longtime evaluator. “Have to give him credit for track record and more power than his body would suggest. I think the Dodgers are a good fit, but the Mariners likely won't trade him unless they can fill a specific need. They could still option Franklin and be patient with respect to a trade.”

From a front-office evaluator: “Franklin to me represents extreme risk because of his excessive strikeout ratio. It has always been high, and he's not a terrific athlete either, and had to move from shortstop to second base, and may have to move to the outfield potentially. The best thing the Mariners can do with Franklin is hold on to him, hope he rakes in the PCL and try to include him in a deal for something they want this summer. Robinson Cano, Brad Miller, and Kyle Seager aren't going anywhere.”

• Some evaluators involved in the conversations with A.J. Burnett believe his preference is to remain in the NL. In fact, some are wondering why Burnett hasn’t worked out a deal to go back to the Pirates. “He’s perfect for their park, and that team,” said one scout.

Burnett was said by sources to be extremely unhappy with the decision to bump him out of the Game 5 start in last year’s playoffs.

• The Phillies and Orioles are reportedly out of the running for the right-hander.

Moves, deals and decisions

1. The Rays are inviting five guys to their minor league camp.

2. The Rangers are talking about a deal with Tommy Hanson.

3. Coco Crisp signed a two-year extension.

4. Mike Sweeney returned to the Royals.

5. The Brewers re-signed Francisco Rodriguez.

6. The White Sox signed Mitchell Boggs.

7. The Nationals signed Luis Ayala.

8. The Pirates signed a catcher.

NL East

• Freddie Freeman’s salary will soar after the Braves move to their new ballpark.

• The Phillies have packed up.

NL Central

• The Cardinals got a jump on spring training, as Derrick Goold writes.

NL West

• Ryan Spilborghs retired.

• The Dodgers must overcome their brittle nature. They could have an age issue, with a weakened bench.

• Carlos Quentin was a hit at his media session.

AL East

• CC Sabathia is the leader of the Yankees’ staff, says Brian Cashman.

• With the Red Sox, there is reason to worry, writes Steve Buckley.

• Jackie Bradley Jr. welcomes the center-field competition.

AL Central

• The Royals hope Kyle Zimmer is part of their staff for the playoffs, writes Andy McCullough.

• Justin Verlander is working hard to come back for Opening Day.

• Andy Dirks thinks the Tigers will have more speed.

• Brad Ausmus is headed to Lakeland, writes Tony Paul.

• Will the Indians be even better this year?

AL West

• Yoenis Cespedes wants an extension.

Reds should trade Homer Bailey.

The Cincinnati Reds are in trouble heading into 2014. That might sound like a controversial statement, though it really shouldn't be, considering how circumstances have changed in the NL Central. The St. Louis Cardinals, fresh off a trip to the World Series, will get the benefit of a full season of their celebrated young pitching and have finally filled their black hole at shortstop. The Milwaukee Brewers will have Ryan Braun back along with Matt Garza in their rotation, and while the Pittsburgh Pirates haven't added anyone of note, a full year of Gerrit Cole and the impending arrivals of Gregory Polanco and Jameson Taillon should make them dangerous once again.

And the Reds? The sum of their offseason has been to import bench players Brayan Pena and Skip Schumaker, who combined for minus-0.8 WAR last year. They watched Shin-Soo Choo and his .423 on-base percentage depart for Texas, and they plan to replace him with Billy Hamilton, who has elite speed but enormous questions about whether he can get on base enough to use it, as evidenced by a .308 OBP in Triple-A last year. When Brandon Phillips drops from 103 runs batted in to 70-something, it's not going to be because he's playing any worse; it's going to be because he won't have Choo on base all the time to drive in. For a team that finished only 15th in wRC+ even with Choo last year, that's a big problem.

The Reds need to do something, and that something is to trade Homer Bailey, for reasons we'll get to in a moment. But more importantly, the loopholes of the current collective bargaining agreement mean that they would be best served to do it before Opening Day.

Maximizing incentives
If you're sick of hearing about Nelson Cruz, Stephen Drew, Ubaldo Jimenez, Kendrys Morales and Ervin Santana by now, know that you're not alone. The presence of the qualifying offer on their heads has undeniably caused a drag on their free-agent values, to the point that they all remain unsigned as we head into the second week of February.

Teams don't mind giving up a pick for a top free agent like Jacoby Ellsbury, but they do for these midlevel guys, and we saw the same thing happen to Kyle Lohse and others like him last year.

[+] Enlarge
AP Photo/Al Behrman
Shin-Soo Choo's departure leaves the Reds with a void in their lineup.
For some players, they've been lucky enough to fall under a pretty glaring loophole that prevents the qualifying offer from being given to players traded within a season, and that has proven to be a boon to the second- and third-level free agents who might otherwise have been anchored with an offer.

Take, for example, a solid-yet-hardly-great pitcher like Ricky Nolasco, who signed with Minnesota for four years and $49 million in November. Nolasco and Santana were born a single day apart from each other in December 1982, and are coming off somewhat similar 2013 seasons. (WAR has them as being equal.) Since Nolasco was traded from the Marlins to the Dodgers in July, he was able to go into the market unfettered; since Santana was a Royal all season long, he's hurt by the offer, and the latest rumors have him potentially needing to settle for a three-year deal.

This all impacts Bailey and the Reds, because he's heading into the final year of his contract, with most reports indicating that there isn't a long-term contract coming from the team. After five years of stops and starts in attempting to become a reliable regular starter, Bailey has put up 417 innings of very solid baseball for Cincinnati over the past two seasons, contributing approximately 6 WAR to the Reds. Assuming he's neither extended nor injured, he'll head off to free agency next winter as an appealing second-level starter behind the trio of Jon Lester, Max Scherzer and James Shields, pending movement by their current teams to retain them first.

The Reds could allow him to play out the season and then depart, like the Royals appear to be doing with Santana. They could trade him in July, like Miami and Chicago did with Nolasco and Garza. Or they could be proactive about it and trade him before Opening Day rosters are set, which is the deadline set in the CBA for whether or not a player can receive a qualifying offer.

That's an easy benefit for a team going after Bailey, because not only would they get him for an entire season, rather than just 10 starts or so if he were a trade-deadline acquisition, they would also be gaining the right to offer Bailey a qualifying offer and receive the pick that would come with his presumed departure. That's a valuable asset, and it's something Cincinnati could and should use as a bargaining chip in any discussions, as long as they happen before Opening Day, when it disappears.

Cincy set to fall off
For the Reds, that makes this a math problem. Is it more valuable to them to have the production Bailey would provide in 2014 and the ability to tender an offer themselves, or is it better to reap the rewards of trading Bailey and the pick for a larger return?

The Reds fancy themselves contenders this year, so it's more likely than not they'll hang on to Bailey, but that may be a miscalculation in a tough NL Central. The rotation is deep, with Mat Latos, Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake and Tony Cingrani joining Bailey, but the lineup is thin behind the wonderful Joey Votto and right fielder Jay Bruce.

Phillips has been on a steady decline for several years (his wOBA has fallen from .353 to .325 to .307), left fielder Ryan Ludwick is 35 and has been a 2-WAR player once in the past four seasons and Hamilton is beyond unproven. It was merely a decent offense last year; without Choo, it will be a decidedly below-average attack.

Since Bailey, Latos, Cueto and Leake are all headed toward free agency in the next two years, the team is going to have to make some tough decisions about which part of their rotation they keep. Trading Bailey now, when his value is at its highest, could help fill that offensive gap while leaving behind enough of a rotation to remain competitive.

To fully maximize his value under the current rules, the clock is ticking toward Opening Day. As soon as it arrives and the ability for other teams to tender Bailey a qualifying offer disappears, so does part of his trade value.

Why Freeman is Votto 2.0.

Freddie Freeman's $135 million contract extension raised a lot of eyebrows this week, not just because of the size of the commitment but because of Freeman's somewhat undeveloped power for a first baseman. The position has long been considered the domain of hulking sluggers, and even in this age of reduced power, it's a position where teams still expect to get a fair share of home runs. And the 24-year-old Freeman is not really a home run guy.

Over the last three years, he's hit 67 home runs (21 in 2011, 23 in both 2012 and 2013), which in that time frame ranks just 14th among qualified first basemen. And of the top 30 qualified first basemen in home runs, Freeman's rate of home runs per plate appearance -- one every 28.1 trips to the plate -- ranks 23rd, putting him in the same category as guys like Justin Smoak and Mitch Moreland. If one was to judge Freeman solely on his ability to hit the ball over the wall, he would grade out as an average first baseman at best.

However, even if chicks dig the long ball, not even a first baseman has to specialize in dingers in order to be highly productive and extremely valuable. While Freeman's home run rate compares with lesser players, it also puts him in the same range as Joey Votto -- he's averaged one home run every 28.7 trips to the plate -- and he's probably the best hitter in the National League. And while Freeman certainly doesn't have Votto's track record, there are some similarities here that should make Braves fans less nervous about such large commitment to a first baseman who doesn't physically remind you of the Incredible Hulk.

No shift
Freeman's 2013 breakout season came in large part because of production in hitting the ball to the opposite field, which has been a hallmark of Votto's career. Last year, 112 of Freeman's contacted balls were hit to left field, and he posted a .448 wOBA on balls hit to the opposite field; among qualified first baseman, only Chris Davis (.648 wOBA) and Votto (.529 wOBA) were more productive when using the opposite field. In fact, Freeman's opposite-field wOBA was nearly as high as his pull wOBA (.464), so he didn't lose any real production going the other way.

[+] Enlarge
Mike McGinnis/Getty Images
Votto's opposite-field prowess has helped him lead the NL in OBP four straight years.
How is that helpful? Hitters who use the whole field rather than focusing on pulling the ball to maximize their power regularly post higher rates of hits on balls in play. Freeman's .371 BABIP is almost certainly unsustainable on a yearly basis, but the way he used the field suggests that higher-than-average BABIPs should be expected in the future. For instance, the 10 left-handed hitters who hit the ball to the opposite field the most often -- Votto was No. 1, and the list also includes guys like Joe Mauer and Shin-Soo Choo -- last year combined for a .322 BABIP, 25 points higher than the league average.

With the increased emphasis on the shift as a defensive weapon against left-handed pull hitters, a hitter who can drive the ball to left field has a significant advantage. While pull-focused hitters like Mark Teixeira have routinely seen line drives caught by a defender playing short right field, hitters like Freeman and Votto are harmed less by the shift, because their offensive approach doesn't involve trying to hit the ball to right field as hard as humanly possible.

Quantity can trump quality
Because it's easier to pull a ball over the fence than it is to drive a home run to the opposite field, the trade off is a lower quantity of home runs, but more hits overall. It is essentially the age-old balance of quality versus quantity, and it is important to remember that there is a quantity of singles and doubles that makes up for a lack of home runs, even for a "power position" like first base.

With $135 million in guaranteed money coming his way, it can be tempting to think that Freeman has to develop more power to justify his contract, and become more of a slugger than he has been to date. But he doesn't, really -- $135 million isn't what it used to be, and it certainly doesn't buy elite power anymore.

Choo, probably the closest approximation in terms of skill set to Freeman on the market this offseason, landed a seven-year, $130 million contract as an opposite-field, line-drive hitter, and Choo is headed for the decline phase of his career. Freeman is already as good as Choo, and is on the upswing of his career; factor in three more years of salary inflation, and Freeman's eventual free-agent price would have been far more than the $22 million per year that he sold his five free agent years for in this extension.

Freeman isn't Prince Fielder or Ryan Howard, and if you just focus on home runs, it might be easy to miss the reasons that Freeman is actually a good player. He probably won't be able to sustain his 2013 batting line -- even Votto's career BABIP is .359, pretty much the upper limit for this kind of player -- and some expected regression might make Freeman more of a good player than a great one. But $135 million for the prime years of a good player is simply what the market has dictated in 2014.

This contract doesn't require Freeman to be a superstar, or to hit a lot of home runs, in order to be a good investment. He simply has to keep hitting line drives all over the field, and the Braves will be just fine.

Arizona makes mistake by signing Arroyo.

Bronson Arroyo barely made my Top 50 free agents, which meant I saw him as a candidate for a low-dollar, one-year deal, not the substantial two-year deal Arizona just gave him in spite of all of the red flags in his recent history.

Arroyo does two things well: Stay healthy and throw strikes. Those are valuable skills, although one's ability to stay healthy declines with age, and Arroyo just signed for his age-37 and 38 seasons. They're also increasingly overshadowed by the things Arroyo doesn't do well: throw hard, keep the ball in the park or get left-handed hitters out.

Arroyo's fastball averaged just barely higher than 87 mph over the last three seasons, according to Fangraphs, more than 2 mph below his peak years. While some of that is a function of him attempting to throw a sinker, the pitch doesn't have great sinker movement, and he's not a ground ball pitcher. What often happens is Arroyo throws a below-average pitch without much life somewhere in the zone, which a good major-league hitter would politely refer to as a “BP fastball.”

Arroyo has long been homer-prone because he pitches with below-average velocity and doesn't have great movement or sink on whatever we want to call his fastball. While pitching in Cincinnati, one of the majors' most homer-friendly parks, hasn't helped, the reality of Arroyo's recent history is that he's not homer-prone because of Great American Ballpark -- he's homer-prone because he has below-average stuff. Over the last three years, his home run allowed rates have been nearly equal at home and on the road, whether we go by home runs per 9 innings pitched (1.59 at home versus 1.51 on the road) or by home runs per 30 batters faced (1.26 at home, 1.22 on the road). Any further loss of velocity will only exacerbate the issue, and his gopheritis is already one of the worst cases in the majors. This means he’s a few more homers a year away from being nonviable as a major-league starter.

Arroyo has also long had problems with left-handed hitters, another issue that isn't improving with age and that could intensify quickly with any loss of stuff. Over the last three years, lefties have hit .299/.339/.534 against Arroyo, and opposing managers have caught on to this weakness in his game, sending slightly more left-handed batters to the plate against him than right-handers. And it all came without Arroyo facing three of the NL's best left-handed hitters in Votto, Bruce and (in 2013) Choo. At best, Arroyo is vulnerable against teams that lean left-handed or have good pinch-hitting options for the second and third time through the order. At worst, it's a third red flag for guaranteeing Arroyo a second year or this kind of money.

The oddest part about the signing is that the D-backs already had a player a lot like Arroyo last season and gave him away for 50 cents on the dollar: Ian Kennedy. Kennedy was also a homer-prone, fringy-fastball, strike-throwing innings eater type, but didn't have Arroyo's platoon-split issues and will make just $6 million in 2014. IPK did infuriate Arizona management with his makeup, a question that arose when he was still with the Yankees in 2008, something you'll never hear about Arroyo. But is the difference between these two pitchers likely to be $5.75 million over this next year, plus the added risk of Arroyo given his age and stuff? It looks as though the Diamondbacks got more expensive without getting substantially better -- at most about two wins over what they might have gotten from Randall Delgado, less if you assume about half of those starts would have gone to Archie Bradley -- and took on an unnecessary financial risk.

Rumors.

Position battle: Diamondbacks SS
February, 9, 2014
FEB 9
1:25
PM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
RECOMMEND0TWEET2COMMENTS0EMAILPRINT
In the words of ESPN.com's Buster Olney, the Arizona Diamondbacks have "a good ol' fashioned showdown" on their hands this spring for their starting shortstop job, and whoever wins "bears a lot of responsibility, considering how the D-Backs have loaded up and taken their payroll over $100 million."

The candidates:

Didi Gregorius, age 23, bats left
Chris Owings, age 22, bats right
Cliff Pennington, age 29, bats both

Gregorius: A strong defensive shortstop, but over the course of starting 97 games for Arizona last year, his batting average dropped steadily with each passing month.

Owings: Played in 20 games for the Diamondbacks after a September call-up, hitting .291 in 55 at-bats. Clearly the better offensive option at shortstop, he hit .330 for Triple-A Reno prior to the promotion.

Pennington: With six years of big league experience under his belt, and the ability to play all over the infield, the veteran is all but guaranteed a spot on the roster.

Latest update: General manager Kevin Towers says that only one of the young prospects is likely to make the team, as Pennington's role as a backup is fairly secure. "I don't think it's good for their development (to sit). They're both everyday type players and they're ready to be everyday type players. I would just hate for one of those kids to be sitting on the bench and playing once or twice a week. They'd be better off being in Triple-A, getting at-bats and getting ready in case there's an injury."

Current leader: Gregorius, at least according to Towers. "The favorite has to be Didi. He was our shortstop last year. For a rookie, I thought he played very, very well. Great defender. He got off to a real hot start. The league probably caught up with him a little bit at the end. He probably got a little bit tired." It certainly sounds like Owings "probably" still has a chance to change people's minds.
Tags:Cliff Pennington, Didi Gregorius, Chris Owings
O's lowering the bar?
February, 9, 2014
FEB 9
12:43
PM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
RECOMMEND0TWEET2COMMENTS0EMAILPRINT
Jon Morosi of FOX Sports says that the Baltimore Orioles are "talking with" a pair of left-handed free agent starters: Joe Saunders and Chris Capuano. That news didn't seem to please Roch Kubatko of MASN Sports, who reacted negatively to the courting of Saunders by saying that Orioles need a top of the rotation starter. "He's not it."

More from Kubatko on the Orioles plans at pitcher: "Signing Ubaldo Jimenez or Ervin Santana would give the Orioles a veteran starter at the expense of the 17th overall pick in the draft, as well as a sizable amount of cash. They've been checking on both pitchers at various stages of the winter, just in case they couldn't reach agreement with A.J. Burnett or Bronson Arroyo.

"Arroyo is headed to Arizona. Burnett would prefer to stay in the National League, according to sources... If the Orioles go that route (Saunders or Capuano) they will hold onto their draft pick and still lack a veteran who slots directly behind Chris Tillman."
Tags:Joe Saunders, Chris Capuano
Caribbean MVP hopes for another shot
February, 9, 2014
FEB 9
11:29
AM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
RECOMMEND0TWEET0COMMENTS0EMAILPRINT
He has 16 major league hits to his name, the last one coming for the Philadelphia Phillies back in 2007. Yet, 34-year-old center fielder Chris Roberson is hoping that his performance in the Caribbean Series might get him one more shot to add to that total.

Roberson was named as the MVP of the series after leading his Mexican team, Naranjeros de Hermosillo, to the championship over Puerto Rico's Indios de Mayaguez. During the Pacific League's regular season, Roberson had finished tied for second overall in home runs and bested all others in total bases.

According to Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com, "Roberson's name had been discussed among the scouts in attendance all week at the Caribbean Series, but some organizations are hesitant to invest on a player his age."

Still, Roberson remains hopeful. "We'll see what happens and maybe somebody picks me up, and if not, I'll go back to Monterrey. If I get the opportunity to play in the big leagues, it will be a blessing. But I'm happy playing baseball. I could be working at UPS or scuffling at a job I don't like where I'm not happy, but I'm happy here."

Tags:Chris Roberson
Royals rotation ready to go
February, 9, 2014
FEB 9
10:12
AM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
RECOMMEND0TWEET1COMMENTS0EMAILPRINT
Vahe Gregorian of the Kansas City Star says that, barring an unexpected injury, there aren't likely to be any surprises when it comes to what players are going to be on the Kansas City Royals big league roster when Opening Day rolls around.

"With the addition of outfielder Norichika Aoki and second baseman Omar Infante, every starting field position has been cast," Gregorian writes. "And now almost the same can be said for the rotation."

According to general manager Dayton Moore, "it's pretty clear that to start the season, that unless something unforeseen happens" the Royals will have a rotation of Jason Vargas, James Shields and Jeremy Guthrie and Bruce Chen.

The obvious name left off that list is Yordano Ventura, of whom ESPN.com's Keith Law writes, "Ventura still looks a lot like a reliever to me, a slight, 5-foot-10 right-hander with a huge fastball but a strong fly ball tendency that may make him too homer-prone to start in the majors." Law ranks Ventura No. 50 in his annual list of top 100 prospects.

Moore is clearly not ready to commit to Ventura as a starter either, but does expect to see the pitcher in a Kansas City uniform. "We think he's ready for the major leagues. Certainly spring training will help validate that opinion. We expect him to be one of our 12 pitchers when we break camp unless something unforeseen happens."

Tags:Yordano Ventura
Kemp's progress up for debate
February, 9, 2014
FEB 9
9:01
AM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
RECOMMEND0TWEET1COMMENTS0EMAILPRINT
Because the Los Angeles Dodgers open their season with a two-game series in Australia against the Arizona Diamondbacks on March 22 and 23, they have one less week to prepare for the start of 2014 than most teams. The loss of that week may end up costing Matt Kemp some playing time.

Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles wrote on Tuesday that the outfielder "hasn't begun to run yet despite the fact he is more than three months removed from left ankle surgery. He has kept his conditioning up by working out on an antigravity treadmill, but hasn't tested it by running the bases or shagging fly balls."

"Given that the Dodgers' first game is six and a half weeks off," Saxon continues. "Opening Day in Australia appears an unlikely target for Kemp's return. Perhaps their U.S. opener, March 30, is a possibility?"

Ken Gurnick of MLB.com reports Saturday that after speaking with Don Mattingly, Kemp's status is no less clear: "Mattingly said it doesn't look like Matt Kemp will be ready for Australia, but (also said) he can't rule him out."

While he waits for Kemp to get back to full strength, Mattingly also told Gurnick he is toying with the idea of batting Yasiel Puig in the leadoff spot this season "because I like to get him extra at-bats" and dropping Carl Crawford down to No.2 in the batting order.
Tags:Matt Kemp, Carl Crawford, Yasiel Puig
D-backs can be patient with Bradley
February, 8, 2014
FEB 8
10:00
AM ET
By Doug Mittler | ESPN.com
RECOMMEND0TWEET1COMMENTS0EMAILPRINT
The Arizona Diamondbacks added depth and durability to their rotation Friday, agreeing to a two-year, $23.5 million deal with Bronson Arroyo that includes an option for a third season.

Arroyo, who has pitched at least 199 innings in each of the last nine seasons, joins a rotation that includes Patrick Corbin, Wade Miley, Brandon McCarthy and Trevor Cahill and likely bumps Randall Delgado out of the starting five.

Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic makes another key point – Arroyo’s presence makes it unlikely that top prospect Archie Bradley will break camp on the big league roster. The 21-year-old Bradley made it to Double-A last season and had a 1.84 ERA at two minor league levels.

The signing of Arroyo makes it easier for the D-backs to avoid the temptation to rush their 2011 first round pick. Our Keith Law has Bradley No. 9 on his list of Top 100 Prospects and says we can expect to see him in Phoenix before the end of the year:


Keith Law
Archie Bradley, No. 9
"Bradley’s command and control were both significantly better in 2013; his walk rate dropped by nearly 30 percent from low Class A to Double-A, and his rate of walks plus hit batsmen dropped by 40 percent, while he even slashed his wild pitch total (which could also be a function of who was catching him) from 17 to 2. Bradley works with a 92-98 mph fastball and a power curveball in the low 80s with depth and right rotation. He needs more work on his changeup, and needs to use his large frame to stay on top of the fastball so it doesn't sit up in the zone. His arm works and he's extremely competitive on the mound, so the Diamondbacks were right to move him out of the hitter-friendly Cal League as quickly as possible. He'll be ready to help the major league team by the second half of this year and projects as their future No. 1 starter."

Could Nats make play for Burnett?
February, 8, 2014
FEB 8
9:25
AM ET
By Doug Mittler | ESPN.com
RECOMMEND0TWEET4COMMENTS0EMAILPRINT
Could the Washington Nationals make a bid for free agent A.J. Burnett?

Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com says “speculation is going around baseball circles that the Nats could consider a late play” for Burnett, who only recently decided that he plans to pitch again in 2014.

Burnett makes his home in nearby Monkton, Maryland and reportedly would like to stay in the National League, which plays into the Nats’ favor. A deal late in the offseason is nothing new for Washington general manager Mike Rizzo, who signed closer Rafael Soriano well past New Year’s Day last winter.

The Pittsburgh Pirates still seem like the logical fit for Burnett, who had a 3.30 ERA for the Bucs last season. But Pirates general manager Neal Huntington has displayed no willingness to overpay, so there could be an opening for the Nationals. The Pirates declined to extend a $14.1-million qualifying offer to Burnett, so there is no extra ball-and-chain of draft pick compensation.

Burnett would be more of a luxury than a necessity in Washington, where he would slot in as a back-of-the-rotation starter behind Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister. So if Burnett were to land in D.C., it would be on the Nats' terms.
Tags:A.J. Burnett
Plenty of interest in Madson
February, 8, 2014
FEB 8
8:54
AM ET
By Doug Mittler | ESPN.com
RECOMMEND0TWEET0COMMENTS0EMAILPRINT
Multiple clubs have expressed interest in Ryan Madson, who held an open audition for about 15 teams Friday and threw 93 miles per hour, reports ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick.

Those impressive numbers should, at the very least, get the veteran reliever a minor league deal somewhere with an invitation to spring training.

Madson pitched in 491 games for the Phillies over nine seasons and posted 32 saves in 2011 before leaving via free agency. The righthander signed deals with the Reds and Angels, but elbow problems have kept him sidelined the last two years.

The Phillies were one of the teams to watch Madson on Friday and have been linked to the 33-year-old in recent weeks. The Mets are looking for a reliever, but did not plan to send any scouts to Madson’s showcase, reports Andy Martino of the New York Daily News.
What's next for Baltimore?
February, 8, 2014
FEB 8
8:28
AM ET
By Doug Mittler | ESPN.com
RECOMMEND0TWEET1COMMENTS0EMAILPRINT

It has been a rather quiet offseason for the Baltimore Orioles, and that was something they hoped to change with a deal for Bronson Arroyo. But the veteran righthander bypassed the Birds Friday for a two-year, $23.5 million deal with the Diamondbacks that includes a third-year option.

Arroyo would have been a nice fit for the Orioles primarily because of his durability, pitching at least 199 innings in each of the last nine seasons. Baltimore ranked just 22nd last season in innings from starting pitchers.

The question now is whether the Orioles accelerate their pursuit of the top remaining starters – A.J. Burnett, Ubaldo Jimenez or Ervin Santana. While Burnett lives in Maryland, Eduardo Encina of the Baltimore Sun says it’s more like that the righthander will remain with a National League team. Money, of course, could change all that.

At this stage, the Orioles are backing at the draft pick compensation tied to Jimenez and Santana. Jimenez also went less than six innings in half of his 32 starts, so he may be the type of pitcher the O’s want to avoid.

If the Orioles fail to land Burnett, Jimenez or Santana, they could not be blamed for simply allowing Zach Britton, Kevin Gausman, Steve Johnson, Josh Stinson, T.J. McFarland and the rest battle it out for the fifth spot. As Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com points out, the remaining crop of free agent starters does not necessarily represent a clear upgrade.

The O’s have been linked to South Korean pitcher Suk-min Yoon, but he may be viewed more as a reliever than a starter.
Tags:Baltimore Orioles
Mets kick tires on Hanrahan?
February, 8, 2014
FEB 8
7:49
AM ET
By Doug Mittler | ESPN.com
RECOMMEND0TWEET2COMMENTS0EMAILPRINT
The New York Mets say they are still in the market for some late-inning bullpen help, even if the market is closing fast.

The Mets had been in contact with the representatives for Fernando Rodney, but the former Rays closer agreed to a two-year deal with the Mariners on Thurday. Two other relievers came off the board Friday when Francisco Rodriguez and Mitchell Boggs signed with the Brewers and White Sox, respectively.

Mets general manager Sandy Alderson reportedly told season-ticket holders Thursday night that they would have scouts watching Joel Hanrahan throw on Friday, A two-time All-Star, Hanrahan underwent Tommy John surgery and will not be available until May.

An agent for Hanrahan, however, said Friday represented only a "light bullpen session," and would not be ready for a "showcase workout" until March.
Tags:Joel Hanrahan
Friday Roundup: More O's talk
February, 7, 2014
FEB 7
2:35
PM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
RECOMMEND0TWEET2COMMENTS0EMAILPRINT
Roch Kubatko of MASN Sports continues to try and figure out which free agent pitcher the Baltimore Orioles are going to add to their staff for the 2014 season.

His latest guess is that it's down to one of three potential options. "(I'm) told Orioles are still in on Arroyo, Jimenez and Yoon, but it doesn't look good on Burnett. Not dead, but feeling is he wants to pitch in NL," Kubatko tweeted on Friday.

Kubatko also says the Orioles are also working towards an extension for shortstop J.J. Hardy in order to avoid a potential free agency at the end of the season. He says general manager Dan Duqette told Hardy that we're going to work on that between now and the start of the season."

Here's a quick recap of some of the other rumors and buzz making their way around the major leagues this Friday:
Philadelphia Phillies: Ruben Amaro Jr. was quoted as saying the team is done making any more free agent signings, at least for the very near future, which would seem to indicate that the Phillies are not going to be pursuing A.J. Burnett, or any other pitcher with whom the organization had previously been linked.
Stephen Drew: Agent Scott Boras is believed to be pursuing an "out-clause" in any deal that Drew might sign that would allow the free agent shortstop to become a free agent again at the end of 2014 if he so desired. While the New York Mets are still somewhat interested in Drew, such a clause would be a non-starter in any negotiation.
Nelson Cruz: The Seattle Mariners just announced a big deal with reliever Fernando Rodney, but are said to still be in the market for another big bat in their lineup. Assuming that current talks continue to progress, there could well be a press conference in the very near future to announce that Cruz will indeed fill that need.
Ervin Santana: Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish reports that there are some rumblings that the Chicago White Sox might be interested in the free agent pitcher, but he is quick to add that it "doesn't seem to be anything serious" at the present time.
Danny Espinosa: According to Bill Ladson of MLB.com, there are "at least a dozen teams who have inquired" about the Washington Nationals second baseman. At present, the team appears to have no interest in dealing him away, and contend that "there will be a competition for the starting second-base job between Espinosa and Anthony Rendon."
Tommy Hanson: The Texas Rangers are said to be "in talks" with the pitcher, with perhaps a minor league deal and invite to camp on the near horizon. Even after losing Derek Holland to injury, there doesn't seem to be a rush for the team to go after some of the higher-priced free agents still on the market.
Greg Holland: The Kansas City closer is the last player on the Royals who has not yet come to an agreement with the team in order to avoid arbitration. Holland has requested $5.2 million while the Royals are offering $4.1 million. If this case goes to a hearing, it would be the first since Dayton Moore took over as general manager.
No panic with Rangers on rotation
February, 7, 2014
FEB 7
1:21
PM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
RECOMMEND0TWEET0COMMENTS0EMAILPRINT
The Texas Rangers didn't go into panic mode when they learned they'd be without Derek Holland for a good chunk of the season. They didn't rush right out and make huge offers to Ervin Santana or Ubaldo Jimenez -- and they probably won't be doing so going forward either.

As ESPN.com's David Schoenfield writes, Texas should be more than fine in terms of pitching without making any big moves. "The Rangers should score more runs, they have the starter who may be the Cy Young favorite in Yu Darvish, Matt Harrison should be back after missing last season, Martin Perez is developing and they have a deep bullpen that had the second-best ERA (2.91) in the AL last season. Even with Holland out, I like them to get back on top in the West."

That's not to say the Rangers won't be looking to add a few big-league ready arms over the next few weeks. General manager Jon Daniels all but said as much in the aftermath of Holland's injury. However, the team is not going to have to break the bank to get some temporary help on the mound.

Jon Morosi of FOX Sports reports that the Rangers are "in talks with free agent starter Tommy Hanson." If this particular deal ends up falling apart before it's done, expect the Rangers to pursue other free agents at Hanson's level, rather than making a huge play for the "bigger names" still out there looking for a landing spot.
Tags:Derek Holland, Tommy Hanson
Phillies out on Burnett?
February, 7, 2014
FEB 7
12:33
PM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
RECOMMEND0TWEET2COMMENTS0EMAILPRINT
Jim Salisbury of CSN Philadelphia reports that Philadelphia Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. does not sound as if he's planning on making any more free agent signings before the team begins its spring training workouts.

"I don't suspect we'll be doing anything," Amaro said. "I think we've got what we've got... We're always looking, always trolling. I know there are guys out there, but I don't suspect us having anything major coming through."

Assuming we take that claim at face value, that means that the team is no longer in the conversation to potentially sign A.J. Burnett. That would seem to leave the Baltimore Orioles and Pittsburgh Pirates as the two favorites to end up with Burnett in the fold.

Additionally, the Phillies had been linked to Ryan Madson, who was reportedly scheduled to throw for a scout showcase in Phoenix on Friday. If the Phillies aren't going to be making an offer there, the Boston Red Sox and Kansas City Royals may end up battling it out for the recovering reliever (elbow issues), if they like what they see.
Tags:A.J. Burnett, Ryan Madson
O's still looking for another arm
February, 7, 2014
FEB 7
11:31
AM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
RECOMMEND0TWEET0COMMENTS0EMAILPRINT
The Baltimore Orioles continue to scour the free agent market in the hopes of signing at least one more starting pitcher to join their rotation, but as of yet, the team has not held a press conference to announce a signing.

"We've been looking for a veteran starter to bolster our staff all winter, and hopefully we'll be able to sign one," general manager Duquette said in a recent radio interview. "We've been trying this winter. We just haven't quite got it done yet."

According to Roch Kubatko of MASN Sports, the Orioles are "more willing to surrender their first-round pick than in previous years - they'd lose it if signing Ervin Santana or Ubaldo Jimenez - but it's apparent that they'd prefer to hold onto it. It's a tricky balancing act. Try to win now without mortgaging the future."

Eventually, the team is likely to come to terms with either Bronson Arroyo, A.J. Burnett or Suk-Min Yoon. Outfielder Adam Jones doesn't care which one of those arms ends up with the team, but recognizes how important signing someone to help the rotation is essential.

"I think we're just getting better as a core. We've just got to figure out the small pieces to make this engine run. I know Burnett lives somewhere close to me. I'll go to his house. I'll take him some steaks if need be. It's out of my hands, but if you need me to help, I'll help," Jones said.
Tags:Adam Jones, A.J. Burnett, Bronson Arroyo, Suk-Min Yoon
Mariners spending spree not done
February, 7, 2014
FEB 7
10:16
AM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
RECOMMEND0TWEET2COMMENTS0EMAILPRINT
Now that the Seattle Mariners have signed Fernando Rodney to a two-year, $14 million contract, pending a physical, there's a sense that another big deal might be just around the corner.

According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Mariners say "they are all in" and are "cautiously optimistic" that they will also be able to sign slugger Nelson Cruz to a contract in the very near future. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports seconds this line of thinking, "There's a belief Seattle is amenable to a multi-year deal for Cruz, perhaps two years, with maybe an option or possibly even a guaranteed third year."

Should the Mariners and Cruz reach an impasse, there's still a chance that they might turn to Kendrys Morales in order to add another bat to their lineup, but ESPN.com's Jim Bowden thinks that Morales may end up being this season's Kyle Lohse, "who didn't sign last year until late March."
 
Preparing for the George Springer Experiment.

The Houston Astros have done some unspeakable things to their fans. The primary defense for watching bad baseball is that bad baseball is better than no baseball, but at times the Astros have caused people to question whether what they’re watching is even baseball at all, or some kind of deliberately unwatchable performance art. The good news is that there’s good news. Psychologically, this experience has made Astros fans stronger, more tolerant of adversity and less prone to hysterics. And on the field, the Astros as a ballclub are making forward progress. They’re still not good, but they’re getting closer to good, and they shouldn’t be as dreadful as they have been for a long long time. With a wave of young talent on the way, Astros fans can begin to envision a most majestic, formidable crest.

Among the brightest of potential stars is 24-year-old George Springer. The former first-round pick ought to debut somewhere in 2014, and Springer is nearly the perfect prospect. He has plenty of power, as evidenced by last year’s 37 home runs. He has plenty of discipline, as evidenced by last year’s 83 walks. He has plenty of speed, as evidenced by last year’s 45 stolen bases. Defensively, he’s a center fielder who could stick there. He has range and he has an arm, and though he’s not unusually young for his level, he’s right on track to be a core asset. There’s just one thing that Springer is missing, and he’s missing it in spades.

If you know prospects, even at all, you know about Springer’s strikeouts. This isn’t a new subject, and I’m interested, and I’m not even a prospect guy. Keith Law recently ranked Springer as his No. 19 prospect, and he described the outfielder as a possible “mold-breaker”. This is because, in a way, Springer’s trying to blaze his own path, following only the faintest of footprints. The question with prospects is always: how good can they be? It’s never easy, but answering the question for Springer is uniquely challenging.

Springer really came on last season, splitting time between Double-A and Triple-A. Overall, he posted a four-digit OPS, which is extraordinary. His contact problems haven’t hurt him yet. But those same contact problems make him particularly mysterious. Minor League Central has pitch data for last year’s Southern and Texas Leagues. In those leagues, 169 players batted at least 250 times. Springer ranked 162nd in contact rate, at 65.5%. Meanwhile, 301 players batted at least 250 times in Triple-A. Springer ranked 299th in contact rate, at 65.0%. He was sandwiched between Kyle Skipworth and Cody Decker. Just to drive the point home, that’s third-to-last. In contact rate, top prospect George Springer ranked third-to-last, in the company, mostly, of non-prospects.

If you want, you could try to be encouraged that Springer made more contact in Triple-A as he went along. But all the data counts, and there’s a theory that later in the season, there’s not a lot of pitching talent left in Triple-A, due to promotions and whatnot. It’s not a secret that George Springer swings through a lot of pitches, and he presumably always will.

Now, it’s important to understand that Springer isn’t hyper-aggressive. He doesn’t take himself way out of the strike zone, like a Carlos Peguero or a Randy Ruiz. He posts reasonable swing rates, showing a good idea of the zone, and this allows him to be a better prospect with better odds. It’s not that he misses a bunch of unhittable pitches. He actually misses more hittable pitches.

In short, we have a guy who:

doesn’t swing too much
but does swing and miss an awful lot
If Springer increases his contact, obviously, that starts to fill his only remaining skillset hole, and he’d be well on his way to being a superstar. But what if he stays this prone to swinging and missing? What might we have in terms of recent big-league precedent?

As you know, FanGraphs has some plate-discipline data going back to 2002. I decided to cover the 2002-2013 window, looking for guys with both a swing rate no higher than 50% and a contact rate no higher than 70%. I was left with 55 players who batted in the majors at least 100 times, excluding pitchers, who are terrible. Of these players, 25 have batted at least 500 times, and 15 have batted at least 1,000 times. Of those 15, 12 have posted a triple-digit wRC+, which makes sense, given that bad players generally won’t be allowed to accrue that much playing time.

All these players were selected for being big-league capable. Or, at least, that was the thought. Presumably, they were promoted despite their contact issues, the thought being they could still be successful. The best hitter in the group is Jim Thome, yet he posted a contact rate of 70%. Next on the list is Giancarlo Stanton, at 68%. Then there’s Ryan Howard, and then Jack Cust, and they’re both at 67%. Richie Sexson‘s at 70%. Sammy Sosa‘s at 68%. Springer is coming off a full-year contact rate just over 65%, and he did that between two levels in the minors.

The pickings are slimmer as you look for lower big-league contact rates. Russell Branyan managed a 113 wRC+ with a contact rate of 63%. We find Mark Reynolds at 108 and 65%. Kelly Shoppach‘s at 96 and 64%. Some hope could be found in potential Springer teammate Chris Carter — Carter, so far, has posted a 109 wRC+ with a 65% contact rate. Yet Carter made more contact in the high minors than Springer has. Not by a ton, and we shouldn’t make too much of little differences, but it has to be emphasized that Springer is statistically extreme in several ways.

You can see some slight parallels between Springer and Justin Maxwell. Maxwell was never considered a true top prospect, but he’s a strikeout-prone, athletic center fielder with an above-average big-league batting line. He’s walked a tenth of the time, he’s struck out three-tenths of the time, he’s hit for power, and he’s been good in the field. Maybe Maxwell is a slightly pessimistic comp, a 40th-percentile comp, so to speak. He’s also been worth 4.5 WAR over 874 plate appearances, or 3.1 per 600. It can work, but again, Maxwell’s made slightly more contact in the majors than Springer has made so far in the high minors.

This is why Springer is so fascinating. It’s not just that he swings and misses a lot — it’s that he swings and misses so much, and he hasn’t even reached the majors yet. It’s hard to compare him to anyone else, because whatever someone else might have, Springer turns it up to 11. So when he does get the call, it’ll be interesting to monitor how he adjusts, and how pitchers adjust back. If Springer makes less contact, he’ll be hard-pressed to be a major contributor. If he makes the same contact, that’ll come with plenty of other skills. If he increases his contact, the sky’s the limit.

Don’t listen to anyone who might suggest the contact struggles are a deal-breaker. A guy with contact problems just has to make up for them in other ways, and Springer has plenty of ways. Almost all of the ways. Speed, base-running, power, defense, whatever you want. Outside of the contact, Springer’s amazing. If you’re forced to start with issues hitting the ball, you couldn’t ask for a better prospect despite that than George Springer. Yet because of the extremity, he still feels kind of experimental. The lab is just about entirely set up. In eager anticipation, we await the results.

Arroyo and Burnett’s Batted Ball Profiles.

The Super Bowl is over, spring training is nearly upon us, and a whole bunch of potentially valuable free agents remain unsigned. Previously in this space, we already took a look at Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana from a batted-ball profile perspective; yesterday and today, five others went/are going under the microscope – starting pitchers Bronson Arroyo and A.J. Burnett, and position players Stephen Drew, Kendrys Morales and Nelson Cruz. Today, we’ll look at the pitchers.
Below you will see Arroyo and Burnett’s K and BB rates, as well as their batted ball breakdowns by type, all expressed relative to MLB averages, both in a scaled to 100 and percentile (within the population of MLB ERA qualifiers) form.


Arroyo % REL PCT
K 16% 79 3
BB 4% 55 6
POP 9% 117 85
FLY 26% 92 38
LD 23% 108 73
GB 42% 98 29
—— —— —— ——
Burnett % REL PCT
K 27% 136 92
BB 9% 110 73
POP 3% 34 1
FLY 22% 77 1
LD 21% 97 24
GB 55% 129 99
Bronson Arroyo, who turns 37 later this month, is a pure pitch-to-contact hurler, and is quite reliant on limiting the quality of contact he allows. His K rate ranks at very nearly the bottom of MLB ERA qualifiers, and his percentile rank has been below 30 for five consecutive seasons. He obviously compensates somewhat by walking almost nobody. In fact, I could basically write the same exact sentence about his BB rate that I did about his K’s. Arroyo has been prone to the gopher ball over the years, a direct result of the high fly ball totals he has allowed – his percentile rank for fly ball rate was 70 or higher from 2010-12. He cut that mark to 38 in 2013, but there is no reason to believe at this point that this is a newly developed skill – expect his fly ball percentage to regress upward in 2014. This should be directly mitigated by a corresponding decrease in his line drive percentage – his percentile rank of 73 is well above his career norms.

Line drive rates are the most likely of the batted ball categories to fluctuate from year to year, and Arroyo, like many other pitchers, has been all over the place in this category over the years. He has also limited the overall batted ball damage by becoming an above average popup generator – his popup percentile rank of 85 was his best in the last six years, an area in which he has been above average six years running. Arroyo’s low groundball rate is no surprise – he has been below league average percentile-wise in five of the last six seasons.

A.J Burnett, who just turned 37 last month, couldn’t possibly have a more different K/BB and batted-ball profile than Arroyo. In each of the last six seasons, Burnett’s K and BB rates have been higher than league average. His 2013 K rate percentile rank of 92 is right near the top of his range over that span, while his BB percentile rank of 73 is right about at his mean. Always a fairly extreme ground ball pitcher, Burnett took matters to a new level last season, finishing at the very bottom of ERA-qualifying MLB starters in popup and fly ball rate, and at the very top in ground ball rate. He has also yielded a below MLB-average line drive percentage for five consecutive seasons, with his 2013 percentile rank of 24 virtually matching his best mark over that span. While it is true that line drive rates don’t correlate very well from year to year, five straight above average seasons constitutes a trend.

Now that we’ve covered their batted-ball frequencies by type, let’s look at the production they allowed by batted-ball type.


Arroyo AVG OBP SLG REL PRD ADJ PRD ACT ERA CALC ERA TRU ERA
FLY 0.280 0.884 123 109
LD 0.660 0.924 107 99
GB 0.198 0.214 70 99
ALL BIP 0.302 0.519 96 98
ALL PA 0.254 0.285 0.436 97 98 3.79 3.74 3.79
—— —— —— —— —— —— —— —— ——
Burnett AVG OBP SLG REL PRD ADJ PRD ACT ERA CALC ERA TRU ERA
FLY 0.269 0.704 90 109
LD 0.657 0.853 99 107
GB 0.233 0.256 98 97
ALL BIP 0.322 0.466 92 99
ALL PA 0.229 0.294 0.331 79 84 3.30 3.05 3.24
For both pitchers, their actual AVG and SLG allowed by batted-ball type is listed, and the resulting run value allowed is expressed relative to MLB average, scaled to 100. For each batted-ball type, an adjusted relative run value is listed, which incorporates park factors, team defense, luck, etc.. The “ALL BIP” line item aggregates the relative run values for all batted-ball types, and the “ALL PA” line item incorporates the K and BB information. (SH and SF are included as outs, and HBP is excluded from the slash line for purposes of this exercise.) The three rightmost columns include each pitcher’s actual ERA, their calculated ERA based on their actual OBP and SLG allowed (which weeds out sequencing), and their “tru” ERA, which adjusts for park factors, team defense, luck, etc.

Arroyo’s actual relative fly ball production mark of 123 is well above league average, but adjustment for his relatively cozy home park reduces that figure to a more acceptable 109. He allowed only a .198 AVG and .214 SLG on grounders last season, for a very low relative production figure of 70. There’s a whole lot of luck in that number, which is adjusted upward to 99. Taking it all into consideration, Arroyo allowed a relative run value of 98 on all BIP, and it remains at 98 once the K’s and BB’s are added in. All of Arroyo’s ERA calculations weigh in at just better than league average.

Burnett doesn’t allow a lot of fly balls or line drives, but the ones he does allow are hit harder than the league average. His relative fly ball run value allowed spikes up from 90 to 109 once you take the Pirates’ ballpark and outfield defense out of the equation. Ditto his line drive run value, up from 99 to 107. His relative ground ball production allowed is right near league average at 97, but the high frequency of grounders allowed (and low fly ball and line drive totals) works heavily in his favor. Like Arroyo, Burnett allowed about league average production on BIP (99) once adjusted for team defense, park, etc., but with K’s and BB’s added back in, Burnett’s ERA totals are over a half-run better across the board, a shiny 84 on a relative basis.

Arroyo has been a durable workhorse, basically not missing a start for the last decade. He has the standard four-pitch repertoire, with below average fastball velocity causing him to pitch backwards quite often. His slider is his most effective offering, and he possesses a fairly significant normal platoon split. His overall profile has been quite stable for years now, but his age, lack of a true out pitch, and utter reliance on keeping batted ball authority in check makes him a difficult guy to rely upon for a material period going forward. He projects as a nice one or at most two-year fit for a club with a big ballpark, that doesn’t have a high percentage of lefthanded power hitters in their division. Anything more than two years, $16M would scare me.

Burnett, along with Ubaldo Jimenez, is the most attractive starting pitcher remaining on the market. His fastball velocity is not what it used to be, but he has gotten more mileage out of it the last couple of seasons as his downward plane has become more consistent. His knuckle-curve is a true out pitch, and his changeup must at least be respected. His platoon split is generally minimal. The only things Burnett has going against him are his age, and his seemingly wavering commitment to continuing his career.

Pittsburgh is an absolutely spectacular fit for him – solid team defense, big park, competitive club. I would find it very difficult to go past one year with Burnett, but a vesting option with a relatively high innings bar to clear could make sense. He’s worth $15M plus for 2014, and could be an attractive short-term alternative to the Jimenez/Santana duo, who have draft pick compensation attached to them.

Lots of player movement is likely to happen in the coming days, with either or both of these two pitchers likely to find homes before too long. Breaking their 2013 stat lines into smaller building blocks can often yield insights that aren’t obvious on the surface. If you need short-term, league average innings at a (hopefully) affordable price – Bronson Arroyo just might be your man. If you’re sitting at a hopeful, pivotal spot on the win curve, A.J. Burnett could be the piece that puts you over the top in 2014.

The Escalating Trend of Paying for Prime Years.

On Wednesday, the Braves announced that they had signed Freddie Freeman to an eight year, $135 million extension. I’ve already written about the diminishing need for a track record and about whether this deal heralds a coming market correction, but hopefully you’ll indulge some more thoughts about this contract and the changing economic structure of Major League Baseball.

There’s no question that teams are throwing more and more money at players who haven’t reached free agency; this is the 15th extension of $100+ million signed in the last three years by a player who was still under team control for at least another year. Players no longer have to reach the open market in order to obtain nine figure contracts, and as we’ve seen with Joey Votto, Elvis Andrus, and now Freddie Freeman, players don’t even have to get to their walk year to land a monster extension anymore. And while this shift towards big money deals for non-free agents is a new thing in MLB, it might be part of an ongoing trend that is shifting baseball’s payroll distribution back to what it was before “the PED era”.

The Baseball Databank has historical salary data going back to 1985, so I asked Jeff Zimmerman to break down the overall salary distributions by age group for each year since then, giving us almost a 30 year window into where teams have been spending their money. The graph is pretty fascinating.

700


At the end of the 80s and the early part of the 90s, the distribution was pretty steady, with about 40% of the league’s total spending going to players in both the 26-30 and 31-35 buckets. These are the years you expect players to be most productive, and most of the players in these buckets are going to have their wages generated through free agency, so this is where the big contracts are going to go. The 18-25 guys are almost always pre-arbitration cases, so they just get the league minimum and live with it, since they have no real leverage, so they hang around 4-5% of total spending in most years. That left around 10-15% of total spending to go to the older crowd.

From 1988 to 1997, there’s not a lot of movement in that distribution, and the graph is pretty flat for each line. In 1998, though, we start to see the beginning of a shift, as the 31-35 age group makes up 48% of total spending, while 26-30 falls to 38%. This goes to 50/31 in 1999, as the 26-30 group falls even faster than the 31-35 group rises, and the oldest group of players begins to really see their share of the pool grow, jumping from 11% to 14%. This is the trend that would take over, as the 36+ group jumped to 17% of total spending in 2000 and continued growing up to 22% in 2004, double what their share was in 1998. In six years, spending on players age-36 and beyond went from $134 million to $446 million.

Some of that uptick is simply due to there being more productive older players in baseball during that stretch than there was any at time before or since. But, contrary to the popular notion that the PED era gave the largest advantage to big bulking sluggers, the big increase was actually on the pitching side of things. In 1998, pitchers age-36+ accounted for 5% of the innings and 6% of pitching WAR, while in 2004, they accounted for 10% of the innings and 12% of the pitching WAR, while older position players went from roughly 6% to 8%. Here’s a graph of total pitcher WAR by age group for this same 1985-2013 time period:

700


You can see where the oldest pitchers really began to make a surge in the middle of the 2000s, and this correlates to the rise in payroll going to that age group. That new 50/30/20 distribution held for a good chunk of the 2000s, and has only recently begun to reverse course, as older pitchers have returned to their formerly lower levels of production. In 2011, the payroll distribution fell to 44/36/16, and then in 2012, it went to 41/40/15, nearly an even split again, as it was for most of the 90s. Then, in 2013, players in the 26-30 bucket made more money than players in the 31-35 bucket for the first time since 1994. For nearly 20 years, MLB teams spent more on players in the beginning of their decline phase than they did on players in their primes, but if the last few years are any indication, that allocation pattern seems to be going away.

It is difficult to miss the trajectory of the recent red line in that graph, as it is the steepest increase of any group at any stretch in the time period covered. From 2008 to 2013, the 26-30 group went from $750 million to $1.25 billion in total spending, while the 31-35 group went from $1.25 billion to $1.16 billion. If you look at total spending for the three groups besides 26-30 in that 2008-2013 window, the overall total actually went down from $1.9 billion to $1.76 billion. Essentially, the entirety of MLB payroll growth over the last five years has been allocated to players between ages 26-30.

And I think you can make a pretty good case that the sport is healthiest when players in their primes are getting the most money. Players between ages 26-30 account for roughly 50% of the total WAR in any given year — they actually surged to 55% of total WAR last year, their highest mark since 1995 — so allocating more money to players in that time frame should lead to fewer contracts where the salary and the performance do not align. The 31-35 group is essentially already getting the money that would otherwise go to 18-25 year olds — both groups produce about 20% of total WAR, but 31-35s get 40% of the payroll while 18-25s get 4% — and pushing any more money to that group is going to be paying for past performance, not current production.

While MLB’s salary structure certainly isn’t setup to equate single year performance and salary, it isn’t really in anyone’s best interests to have a system that creates a never ending series of albatross contracts. By shifting the payroll allocation towards younger and more productive players, MLB teams are decreasing the likelihood of paying large salaries to unproductive players. Essentially, they’re trading in what used to be bargain years for more equitable payments during a player’s most productive years in exchange for not having to continue to finance their incomes well beyond their own usefulness.

We don’t have enough data to say that this trend is going to continue, or if we’ve returned to the 40/40 equilibrium of the past, but it seems clear the days of past-their-prime players getting 50% of the pot is coming to an end. Deals like Freemans are not going away. They might seem exorbitant based on what players that age got 10 years ago, but the economics of MLB are changing, and players in their 20s are now going to command a much larger share of the pie than they used to.

Mariners Replace Good Closer with Good Closer.

The Mariners lost Tom Wilhelmsen last year, not to injury, but to whatever it is that capriciously claims the effectiveness of relievers with otherwise quality stuff. In stepped Danny Farquhar, one of two guys the Mariners got for Ichiro in a deal interpreted as nothing other than a dump and a favor. At the time, the Mariners said they liked Farquhar’s new cutter he’d shown in the minors. He proved to be, you could say, up to the task. There were 125 relievers last year who threw at least 50 innings. Farquhar ranked sixth in strikeout rate, between Kenley Jansen and Trevor Rosenthal. He ranked fourth in FIP-, between Mark Melancon and Craig Kimbrel. He ranked sixth in xFIP-, between Aroldis Chapman and Rosenthal. As closer he had a 2.38 ERA. In no time, Farquhar established himself as perhaps one of the better relievers in the major leagues.

On Thursday the Mariners replaced Farquhar with free-agent Fernando Rodney. It had been rumored for months that the Mariners were interested in a veteran closer, and they got the last good one for two years and $14 million, with another possible million in incentives. The Orioles were a possibility, but it seems they’ll stay internal. For the Mariners, on the surface, it’s a strange move. Below the surface, it’s a perfectly reasonable move, that fits within the current market.

The first thing to understand is that Rodney doesn’t really actually “replace” Farquhar — he just moves him up an inning. Closers, on average, throw the highest-leverage innings, but setup guys have their own high-leverage innings, and each bullpen needs several effective arms over the course of six or seven months. Farquhar’s still there, he still projects just the same, he helps as insurance, and down the road he could be cheaper as a result of not racking up saves in 2014.

This was a bullpen in considerable need. Maybe not of a closer, but of help. Outside of Farquhar and Charlie Furbush, the Mariners had a bunch of question marks, made worse by Stephen Pryor coming off an unusual surgery. No one has any idea what to expect from Wilhelmsen, and Yoervis Medina is not unlike Rodney on his worse days. The goal for any contender ought to be to improve, and the Mariners intend to contend, and Rodney makes them an incrementally more talented team. For the sake of reference, adding Rodney to the depth chart increased the Mariners’ bullpen WAR by about 0.9. It’s pretty easy to see this as the Mariners paying about market rate for about another win.

This deal has the terms everyone basically should have been expecting. Some other free-agent contracts:

Joe Nathan, two years, $20 million
Joaquin Benoit, two years, $15.5 million
Grant Balfour, two years, $12 million
Edward Mujica, two years, $9.5 million
And Balfour originally signed for two years and $15 million before the Orioles called things off after looking at the results of his physical. Rodney’s getting paid about what he should get paid, and while he obviously runs into trouble every so often with walks, there’s more to the story and he projects well, even at 37.

No one will ever be able to forget what Fernando Rodney once was. Even three years ago, he was a disaster with the Angels, ending up with more walks than strikeouts. The next year he went to Tampa Bay and set a new ERA record, in the good way. Last year’s numbers were worse, but they were still good, with a 75 FIP- and a 79 xFIP-. A few factors are correlated with Rodney’s improvement with the Rays. His fastball velocity picked up. His changeup frequency picked up. He pitched a lot to Jose Molina. He shifted over on the mound. Two years in a row, Rodney allowed contact rates of about 70%, and while he’s never been easy to hit, there aren’t clear signs of aging.

Maybe you raise your eyebrows over the Molina bit. Throwing to Molina, Rodney wound up with 28 walks and 81 strikeouts. Throwing to Jose Lobaton and Chris Gimenez, he wound up with 23 walks and 77 strikeouts. With the Rays, Rodney had far greater success than ever before getting pitches in the zone called strikes, so maybe there was a framing benefit, but it doesn’t seem to have been enormous, and Mike Zunino‘s early indicators are positive.

The Mariners are in a weird position, where they want to go for it, but they’re not a leading title contender, and there’s not a lot to spend on. Rodney isn’t a splash, but he ought to be a modest improvement, at a corresponding cost that makes this move neither outstandingly good nor regrettably bad. Just looking at the depth charts, there’s a good chance Rodney is a bigger improvement than Nelson Cruz would be, and Cruz would presumably cost more money along with a draft pick. That’s also another move the Mariners are thinking about making, so it’s not like they opted for Rodney instead, but consider this when Cruz’s signing somewhere draws headlines. Cruz seems like an impact player, but Rodney’s impact, at least in Seattle, might be greater.

And so the AL West has gotten all the more tight. The Mariners didn’t need a closer, but they did need better arms, and if they aren’t quite finished spending, that division could turn into a four-team race. Or, you know, maybe not. All we have now are probabilities. No one cares about probabilities when the games are being played, but then, when the games are being played, there are games, and that’s nice, so probabilities just have to get us to that point. It’s not really that much further.
 
sox had truck day this past weekend...such a short offseason in baseball it feels like. football and hockey always feel like FOREVER for me :lol
 
:lol

how's old man jeter's ankle looking? it going to hold up for more than a couple weeks this year?
 
ChampCruThik said:
Apparently Cleveland's brass hasn't spoken to Ubaldo in almost 2 weeks.
Click to expand...
What is going on with Ubaldo? Arroyo got a deal. Maholm, Hanson, and other lower tier pitchers are getting signed. And you're at least hearing rumors about teams going after Burnett and Santana. Even Cleveland inquired about Santana recently according to reports. But no news at all on Ubaldo.
 
@Kevin Cleveland

2014 Top 10 Prospects: Cleveland Indians.

The Cleveland Indians have an intriguing system with some high-ceiling talent mixed in with some “safer” prospects. The system definitely boasts more depth on the hitting side than the pitching side. The front office has done a nice job of utilizing the draft, trade market and international free agency to build a solid farm system.

#1 Francisco Lindor | 65/AA (SS)
Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
19 464 122 22 2 49 46 25 .303 .380 .407 .366
The Year in Review: Just 20, Lindor spent time at both High-A and Double-A in 2013. A teenager at the time, he showed a strong approach at the plate and hit more than .300 with excellent contact rates (He walked more than he struck out) and 25 steals in 27 attempts. He also played eye-catching defense at shortstop.

The Scouting Report: In an era where Top 100 prospect lists are dominated by pitchers and shortstops, Lindor is one of the Top 5 middle infielders in the game. His strength is defense where he shines for his athleticism, range, arm, and hands. At the plate, he projects to develop into an above-average, if not plus, hitter capable of producing a high average because he uses the whole field and makes outstanding contact. He’s also a smart runner with good speed and can steal 20+ bases in a full season.

The Year Ahead: Lindor spent the majority of 2013 in High-A ball and appeared in just 21 games in Double-A. As a result, he’ll likely return to the level to begin the ’14 season but may not be there for long. He could see the Majors before the end of the year.

The Career Outlook: The slick-fielding shortstop has a chance to develop into a threat on both sides of the ball.


#2 Clint Frazier | 65/R (OF)
Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
18 196 51 11 5 17 61 3 .297 .362 .506 .396
The Year in Review: The fifth overall selection in the 2013 amateur draft, Frazier had an outstanding pro debut in Rookie ball. He just missed hitting .300 and posted an OPS of .868. He showed good pop but struck out 61 times in 44 games. Frazier tired a bit late in the season after a long year.

The Scouting Report: Frazier has a chance to be a special player thanks to his bat. His above-average bat speed produces plus power and the ball jumps off his bat, but it remains to be seen how much contact he’ll make due to his aggressive approach. He also needs to improve his pitch recognition and handling of breaking balls. Defensively, he’s played center field but is expected to end up at an outfield corner unless he adds additional polish.

The Year Ahead: Frazier should move up to full-season ball in 2014 where he’ll look to continue to polish his rough edges — such as lowering his strikeout rate — to an already impressive package of skills.

The Career Outlook: The young player is brimming with talent and could develop into an impact player in the outfield with above-average power potential.


#3 Cody Anderson | 60/A+ (P)
Age G GS IP H HR K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP
22 26 26 136.0 121 8 8.07 2.65 2.65 3.16
The Year in Review: A 14th round pick from 2011, Anderson spent his second season in A-ball last year and did an outstanding job of keeping runners off the bases. He allowed just 105 hits and 31 walks in 123.1 innings of work. He earned a late-season promotion to Double-A but uncharacteristically struggled with both his command and control.

The Scouting Report: A former reliever, Anderson has pretty much quieted any critics that opposed his future as a starter. The right-hander has above-average command and control, which helps his four-pitch repertoire play up. His fastball works in the low-to-mid 90s and his slider is his second-best offering. His curveball also has potential but his changeup is a distant third pitch.

The Year Ahead: Anderson will no doubt return to Double-A in 2014. He’ll look to produce consistent command at that level while also working down in the zone for improved ground-ball rates.

The Career Outlook: Anderson shows the potential to develop into a mid-rotation starter capable of chewing up innings.


#4 Trevor Bauer | 60/MLB (P)
Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR
22 17.0 5.82 8.47 35.3 % 5.29 7.05 6.60 -0.1 -0.3
The Year in Review: It was a disappointing year for Bauer — his first in the Indians system — and his prospect value diminish significantly. Considered nearly MLB ready coming into the year, he ended up making 22 starts in Triple-A and just four appearances in the Majors. Bauer’s command and control deserted him as he tinkered with his delivery and he walked 73 batters in 121.1 minor league innings.

The Scouting Report: Say what you will about his makeup/maturity but Bauer is a cerebral pitcher who sometimes over thinks things on the mound. He has solid stuff with a low-to-mid-90s fastball, a plus curveball and an above-average changeup. He also mixes in the odd slider. Unfortunately, he struggles with his fastball command, which hinders the effectiveness of his secondary stuff. Bauer also needs to get back to inducing more ground ball outs by working down in the zone consistently.

The Year Ahead: Bauer has a shot at opening the season in the Indians’ starting rotation but he’ll have to come out strong with the likes of Danny Salazar and Carlos Carrasco having a leg up on him.

The Career Outlook: Bauer’s career could go one of two ways at this point. He could either burn out as a perennially-disappointing hurler or he could stop tinkering and over-thinking things and let his natural ability guide him to success as a No. 2 or 3 starter.


#5 Jose Ramirez | 55/MLB (2B)
Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR
20 14 14.3 % 14.3 % .333 .429 .500 .404 162 0.8 0.5 0.2
The Year in Review: Just 20 years old for most of 2013, Ramirez spent the entire year in the minors at the Double-A level and was a surprise addition to the big league roster late in the season. He also had a strong showing in the Dominican Winter League.

The Scouting Report: Ramirez is a pesky player. The switch-hitter is a high-energy athlete who squeezes out every ounce of talent. He rarely strikes out and makes excellent contact to all fields but he also rarely walks. He’ll never have more than fringe-average power for a second baseman but he also has above-average speed and should be capable of nabbing 20+ bases in the Majors.

The Year Ahead: Ramirez faces a tough task in unseating second base incumbent Jason Kipnis. As a result, he’ll likely spend most of 2014 in Triple-A unless an injury crops up or he settles in as a regularly-used back-up capable of playing both second base and shortstop.

The Career Outlook: Ramirez could develop into an average or better second baseman but he currently faces a significant roadblock in Cleveland. He could also end up as an above-average utility player.


#6 Tyler Naquin | 55/AA (OF)
Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
22 713 181 34 11 57 152 19 .281 .346 .407 .349
The Year in Review: Naquin opened 2013 in High-A ball and spent the majority of the year there. He posted a so-so .769 OPS in 108 games. It was enough to earn him a late promotion to Double-A where he struggled during his 18-game trial. He regained some momentum in the Arizona Fall League where he hit .339 with an .817 OPS.

The Scouting Report: Naquin continues to improve his defense in center field, which is key to his future development because he lacks the power for a corner outfield spot. He has good speed, solid range and a strong arm in the outfield. Offensively, he utilizes the whole field but strikes out too much for his modest power output and needs to improve his contact rate and pitch recognition. He has enough base running acumen to produce double-digit steal totals.

The Year Ahead: Naquin will return to Double-A in 2014 where he’ll look to post more impressive results. If he has a strong season he could see big league action by the end of the year given the lack of big league outfield depth.

The Career Outlook: With a lack of roadblocks in the Majors, Naquin is well positioned to eventually have a strong shot to settle in as a future regular for the Indians but he may never be more than an average offensive player.


#7 Tony Wolters | 55/A+ (SS)
Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
21 398 88 14 3 51 69 4 .263 .365 .332 .336
The Year in Review: Wolters’ conversion to catcher was a success in 2013 as he improved by leaps and bounds throughout the season. He didn’t produce much power (.353 slugging percentage) but he controlled the strike zone well with 41 walks and just 58 strikeouts. He also appeared in 14 games in the Arizona Fall League but struggled and may have been worn down after a long first full season behind the dish.

The Scouting Report: The move from middle infielder to catcher has reinvigorated Wolters’ career. He’s shown flashes of developing into an above-average backstop, although he still needs to add polish to his receiving, game calling and blocking. At the plate, he doesn’t possess much power, and likely never will, but he understands his strengths and weaknesses and makes good contact. Wolters could hit for a solid average as he continues to mature and gain consistency.

The Year Ahead: After two years in High-A ball, Wolters will move up to Double-A where he’ll need to continue to make adjustments to further his development path — both offensively and defensively.

The Career Outlook: Wolters has a chance to develop into a very good everyday catcher at the big league level and his left-handed stroke makes him all the more valuable.


#8 Francisco Mejia | 55/R (C)
Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
17 113 32 9 4 5 18 3 .305 .348 .524 .400
The Year in Review: Mejia, 18, had a strong debut season at the plate and hit more than .300 with good pop. He was a little too aggressive at the plate but kept the strikeouts to a minimum. He struggled on defense but is still young and learning the nuances of the position. Mejia was potent against southpaws from the right side of the plate with a 1.208 OPS (in a small sample size).

The Scouting Report: Tony Wolters has some competition for catcher-of-the-future in Cleveland. Mejia had a solid debut campaign in 2013 as a switch-hitting catcher in rookie ball. He hit more than .300 while showing the ability to make good contact with excellent pop. On the downside, he has an overly-aggressive approach that could get him into trouble as he moves up the ladder. Defensively, he’s like a young Carlos Santana in that he’s still very raw behind the plate and needs to focus on his receiving, blocking, game calling and throwing mechanics.

The Year Ahead: Spring training will likely determine whether Mejia opens the year in extended spring training or full-season ball. The key will be for him to continue improving behind the plate.

The Career Outlook: If he can play well enough to even be a fringe-average defender then Mejia could be a perennial all-star as a catcher. With that said, there are a lot of hurdles to clear with such little pro experience to date.


#9 Dorssys Paulino | 55/A- (SS)
Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
18 523 117 28 5 30 91 12 .246 .297 .349 .300
The Year in Review: Paulino struggled mightily in the first half of 2013 but began to turn things around in June — although even his second half numbers were far from eye-popping. Despite his struggles, he kept his strikeout rate at a reasonable level given his age and experience level.

The Scouting Report: Paulino, who just recently turned 19, has been pushed aggressively through the Indians system but showed the ability to make adjustments in 2013, which bodes well for his future development. He has good bat speed with solid gap pop but his aggressive nature hinders his ability to consistently hit for average. Defensively, he can handle shortstop with solid actions and an average arm, but he’ll likely be an above-average fielder at second base.

The Year Ahead: Unless he comes out completely flat in the spring, Paulino likely showed enough in 2013 to earn a bump up to High-A ball — although he may spend the entire season at that level.

The Career Outlook: Paulino is by no means a sure thing but he has the potential to develop into an average or better player in the middle infield.


#10 Ronny Rodriguez | 50/AA (2B/SS)
Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
21 498 124 25 5 16 76 12 .265 .291 .376 .301
The Year in Review: Playing as a 21 year old in Double-A, Rodriguez struggled with his aggressive approach (17 walks in 116 games) and posted a .667 OPS and a disappointing .291 on-base percentage. He later received some inconsistent playing time in the Dominican Winter League.

The Scouting Report: A raw but athletic infielder, Rodriguez plays all out in the field and at the plate, which leads to very low walk rates. He has average or better pop but needs to become more consistent in his approach if he’s going to hit for a solid average in the Majors. He’s been much more potent against left-handed pitchers than right-handers in his career. Rodriguez has played both shortstop and second base in the minors but moved to the keystone in deference to Lindor — but not because he couldn’t handle the challenging position.

The Year Ahead: Rodriguez could probably use a little more polish at the Double-A level but he’ll have to contend with Francisco Lindor for playing time at shortstop and Joe Wendle at second base. With a strong spring, though, he could end up in Triple-A.

The Career Outlook: Rodriguez’s future in the Indians system is looking murky at best due to the abundance of middle infield talent. His value isn’t that high right now, though, which could hinder his value on the trade market.

The Next Five:

11. Joe Wendle, 2B: Four of the club’s Top 15 prospects were acquired via the 2012 amateur draft and Wendle was the last of that group to be selected — in the sixth round. Signed for just $10,000 out of a small Division II school, the second baseman isn’t flashy but he has a solid approach on both sides of the ball. He makes above-average contact and actually showed surprising power in 2013 while spending time both in High-A ball and in the Arizona Fall League.

12. C.C. Lee, RHP: Taiwanese-born Lee rebounded well in 2013 after undergoing Tommy John surgery and missing most of the 2012 season. The right-handed reliever made his MLB debut last year and has a good shot at spending much of the year in the big leagues in 2014. His fastball has good pop while sitting in the low 90s and his slider is a chase-pitch when he’s commanding it.

13. Mitch Brown, RHP: Brown’s first full season was a disappointment but not a huge surprise considering he comes from a cold weather state (Minnesota) and has limited pitching experienced compared to those from warmer states such as California, Arizona or Florida. When he’s on, the right-hander has a low-90s fastball and induces a high number of ground balls. He’ll likely give Low-A ball another shot in 2014 after posting an 11.49 ERA there during a five-start stint.

14. Dylan Baker, RHP: A starter in his first full season, Baker’s future likely lies in the bullpen due to the effort in his delivery, lack of reliable secondary offerings and so-so command. He walked 62 batters in 143.2 innings in Low-A ball last year but was extremely durable. When he’s going well, he shows a low-to-mid-90s fastball and a developing slider. He also does a nice job of inducing ground balls and allowed just three home runs in 2013.

15. Carlos Moncrief, OF: Moncrief began his pro career as a pitcher but his athleticism became too hard to ignore and he eventually shifted to an everyday player in the outfield. Understandably, he’s still raw but he’s moved methodically through the system and spent the 2013 season in Double-A where he showed an improved contact rate, good patience and developing power. His arm is a true weapon in the outfield.

What’s Really Available at First for the Pirates.

The other day, Buster Olney tweeted that some executives see regression in the Pirates’ immediate future. Projection systems seem to be in agreement, and Dave talked about this very thing as soon as the Pirates were eliminated from last year’s playoffs. Nobody thinks the Pirates are going to go back to being terrible — there’s way too much talent there — but people see them more as fringe contenders than NL Central favorites, and it’s not like they’ve had the most constructive offseason, with the biggest move to date being the loss of A.J. Burnett.

Of course, the offseason isn’t over. The Pirates might still be able to get Burnett re-signed, which would be a significant improvement. They’re another one of those teams in a high-leverage position on the win curve, so any kind of improvement should be pursued. And with that in mind, right now the situation at first base involves Gaby Sanchez and unknown others. You probably know that Gaby Sanchez is a real player, but he’s never done much to draw attention to himself, and he’s not a regular. It seems like the Pirates are ripe for a first-base upgrade. But then, what’s really available to them?

Someone asked me in a chat not long ago to identify a good first baseman the Pirates would be able to acquire. I didn’t have an answer, and it’s not because I was being deliberately unhelpful. Let’s run down the top projected first basemen for 2014, according to Steamer, and note why an acquisition would be unlikely or impossible:

Joey Votto — franchise player
Miguel Cabrera — franchise player
Paul Goldschmidt — franchise player
Albert Pujols — too expensive
Adrian Gonzalez — not going anywhere
Freddie Freeman — franchise player
Edwin Encarnacion — too good, on a potential contender himself
Prince Fielder — perceived franchise player
Anthony Rizzo — valued building block
Allen Craig — valued building block
Chris Davis — franchise player
Brandon Belt — developing franchise player
Nick Swisher — on a potential contender himself
Eric Hosmer — on a potential contender himself
Matt Adams — valued building block
Mark Teixeira — too expensive
Corey Hart — on a potential contender himself, just acquired
Mike Napoli — just re-signed, highly valued
Logan Morrison — on a potential contender himself, just acquired
Mark Trumbo — perceived franchise player
Adam Lind — starting DH on a potential contender
Everyone else is projected for 1.4 WAR or lower than that. Sanchez is one of the guys projected for 1.4 WAR. Not everyone above would be impossible to acquire, but they’d all be stretches. Maybe Morrison would be available, but his projection is also exceedingly optimistic. It’s pretty evident that if the Pirates want to get better at first base, they’re not in position to make a major splash. Anything they’d do would be a more minor transaction.

Now, Sanchez is a guy with a big career platoon split. Even after you regress it, he’s eminently playable against lefties. The Pirates, I’m sure, would love to have an everyday first baseman, but failing that, they could just platoon Sanchez with a left-handed bat. Andrew Lambo is in the system, working out at first base, and the Pirates recently added Chris McGuiness. But what are alternatives on the market?

There was recently a rumor that the Pirates are interested in Kendrys Morales. Morales is a proven good hitter, and he seems to have an almost non-existent market. In the past, he’s been a reasonable defender at first. But lately he’s also primarily been a DH, and he has that draft pick attached on account of the qualifying offer extended to him by Seattle. It’s hard to see the Pirates as an actual fit unless Morales’ price were to dip particularly low. Sanchez, in theory, would be able to give him days off, but Morales still seems like a better fit for a team like the Orioles.

The Pirates have sniffed around Mitch Moreland. Moreland is currently in line to bat quite often for a contending team in Texas, and he owns a career WAR of 2.1 over more than 1,500 plate appearances.

Morrison might be gettable, especially if the Mariners sign Nelson Cruz, but right now he’s in line to bat quite often, and he owns a career WAR of 1.0 over just about 1,500 plate appearances.

Justin Smoak might be gettable, especially if the Mariners sign Nelson Cruz, but right now he’s in line to bat quite often, and he owns a career WAR of -0.1 over almost 2,000 plate appearances.

The Mets have been dangling Ike Davis all offseason long. They weren’t able to find a match with the Brewers, because the Mets wanted more value than Milwaukee was willing to give up. Davis has been a below-average player since the start of 2011, and it’s meaningful that the Mets are so prepared to ship him off and give time to Lucas Duda.

Mike Carp isn’t in line for a lot of playing time in Boston, and rumors from a few months ago indicated that the Pirates expressed interest. Several teams, however, expressed interest, and the Red Sox reportedly wanted quite a bit in return. Carp is coming off a strong offensive season boosted by a .385 BABIP.

Somewhat interestingly, the Astros recently designated Brett Wallace for assignment. He’s 27 and he bats left-handed, and while he owns a negative career WAR, he’s also been slightly above-average against righties and especially so the last three years. Last season in Triple-A he posted a .952 OPS and he’s readily available at this very minute. He’s interesting, in large part because he wouldn’t cost talent in return.

But here’s the bigger point: there’s not a ton out there. There certainly aren’t many sure things, and while the Pirates could use this year’s version of last year’s Mike Carp, the Red Sox might want too much, and this year’s Carp isn’t likely to be as good as last year’s Carp. There’s no one worth giving up significant value for. And a guy the Pirates already have is more than a little interesting.

Andrew Lambo hasn’t played much first base, but he’s been working at it over the winter. The goal is for him to simply become passable, and then there’s real upside in his bat. We can skip over Lambo’s whole history. He’s 25 years old and left-handed. Last year he hit well in Double-A, then he posted the very highest isolated slugging percentage in Triple-A. His combined line was .282/.347/.574, and while his game basically comes down to power, he has a lot of it, and it can make up for a lot of deficiencies.

Yeah, he strikes out quite a bit. His contact rate in Triple-A was 0.8 standard deviations below the mean. But he’s not a free swinger — his swing rate in Triple-A was 0.6 standard deviations below the mean. He does have a sense of the strike zone, and when he hits the ball he hits the ball hard. The Pirates, in theory, would be able to protect Lambo from facing too many tough southpaws. If the Pirates are looking for a 2014 version of 2013 Mike Carp, they might already have it. When considering any acquisition, they have to wonder: is this new guy better than Andrew Lambo would be?

The Pirates don’t need to commit themselves to Sanchez and Lambo right away. Lambo doesn’t have to make the opening-day roster, so the team could put him in Triple-A to see if he can sustain his improvements, at the plate and in the field. But Lambo is sufficiently interesting and sufficiently talented that the Pirates shouldn’t need to give up much value for a part-time lefty bat. There’s only so much to be gained, and it isn’t hard to see how Lambo could hit for enough power to offset his various shortcomings. Maybe I’m too positive about a guy who hasn’t proven a thing outside of the high minors. But sometimes lower-budget teams have to take chances, and if the Pirates can’t find something for cheap, they seem to already be in position to go cheap.

A Hidden Problem with Bronson Arroyo.

The Diamondbacks signed Bronson Arroyo to a two year, $23.5 million contract on Friday, and predictably, response from the statistical community wasn’t that positive, especially with Paul Maholm signing for just $1.5 million in guaranteed money with the Dodgers earlier in the afternoon. Jeff already wrote up the pros and cons of Bronson Arroyo’s deal this morning, which I’m essentially in agreement with, so feel free to read that if you’re just looking for a summary of the deal. However, there’s another aspect to Arroyo that I think is worth mentioning, especially considering that he’s changing divisions.

Arroyo has really large platoon splits; some of the largest in the game, in fact. Over the last three years, he’s held RHBs to a .290 wOBA, much better than the league average, but LHBs have put up a .374 wOBA against him, making him one of the worst regular starting pitchers in baseball against left-handed bats. Among right-handed pitchers who have faced least 1,500 total batters over the last three years, only Jason Marquis (.389 wOBA) has been worse against left-handed bats. Including LHPs (which brings in the disastrous Ricky Romero), Arroyo ranks 106th out of 108 starters in wOBA vs LHBs since the start of the 2011 season. It’s a pretty big flaw.

Now, it’s not that uncommon for a pitcher to strongly favor pitching to same-handed hitters, and he’s hardly the only starter with a big platoon split. Gavin Floyd and Justin Masterson actually have bigger ratios between their wOBAs against lefties and righties, and Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello, and Lance Lynn aren’t far behind. These are all pretty solid pitchers — Scherzer obviously is more than just solid — and shows that a big platoon split doesn’t ruin a RHPs chance of sticking in the rotation. After all, you only have a big split as a Major Leaguer if you’re particularly good against same-handed hitters, so we’re selecting for pitchers who are strong against one side, giving them the ability to get some hitters out with a lot of frequency.

But this also leaves them vulnerable against teams who can stack the deck with lefties, and pitchers who run big splits tend to face a lower percentage of same-handed hitters than pitchers with a more even split. For reference, here are the five RHPs with the biggest platoon ratio over the last three years, with their batters faced totals included as well.


Player VsRHB VsLHB Total Platoon% RHBwOBA LHBwOBA Platoon Ratio
Gavin Floyd 722 910 1632 56% 0.274 0.356 1.30
Justin Masterson 1078 1539 2617 59% 0.259 0.335 1.29
Bronson Arroyo 1246 1267 2513 50% 0.290 0.374 1.29
Rick Porcello 1032 1271 2303 55% 0.291 0.369 1.27
Max Scherzer 1059 1397 2456 57% 0.264 0.334 1.27
Notice Arroyo’s Platoon%, relative to the other four? Masterson has faced nearly 60% lefties, and Floyd and the two Tigers are both over 55%. Arroyo, though, is at just 50%, as he’s faced an almost identical number of right-handed and left-handed bats since the start of the 2011 season.

A big part of that is that he’s the only National League starter in that group. An AL manager is never going to put a right-handed DH in the line-up against these guys if they can help it, so there’s basically an extra left-handed bat in the line-up against the AL platoon guys every single time out. It’s simply easier for AL managers to exploit platoon splits than it is for NL managers, which is one of the reasons why pitchers like Arroyo have more success in the NL than the AL.

But it’s not just the National League factor pushing Arroyo’s ratio of left-handed hitters down. It’s also the National League Central factor, and maybe even more specifically, a Cincinnati Reds factor. The Reds themselves had a decent amount of left-handed hitting last year, ranking 3rd in the NL in PAs from LHBs, but of course, Arroyo didn’t have to pitch against his own team, and the rest of the NL Central teams simply didn’t have much in the way of left-handed hitting.

The Cubs and Cardinals ranked 6th and 7th in the NL in PAs from LHBs, while the Pirates ranked 13th and the Brewers ranked 15th. The Brewers, in fact, were on an island to themselves in terms of right-handed slant, as every other NL team had at least 2,000 PAs from LHBs in 2013, while the Brewers had just 1,690. The Phillies and Giants sent nearly twice as many left-handed hitters to the plate last year as the Brewers did.

This wasn’t just a one year fluke, either. The non-Reds NL Central teams ranked 6th/9th/10th/11th/15th in LHB PAs in 2012, and 7th/9th/12th/13th/16th in 2011. For whatever reason, the NL Central has just not had many left-handed hitters over the last few years, with nearly every team skewing to the right side of the plate. So perhaps it shouldn’t be a huge surprise that other high Platoon Ratio/Low Platoon% pitchers happen to pitch for NL Central teams as well. Charlie Morton (PIT) has had a whopping 1.44 Platoon Ratio, but just 46% of his batters faced have been LHBs. Lance Lynn (STL) posted a 1.26 Platoon Ratio, but only faced 46% LHBs over the last three years. Shaun Marcum (MIL, mostly) put up a 1.24 Platoon Ratio, but faced just 49% LHBs from 2011-2013. Jeff Samardzija (CHC): 1.14 Platoon Ratio, 47% Platoon%.

Outside of NL Central hurlers, we just don’t really see examples of righties who struggle against lefties getting to face more righties than lefties. Especially in the AL, these pitchers end up facing 55-60% LHBs, and even in the NL West and East, the number is more regularly in the 52-53% range. And unfortunately for Bronson Arroyo, he doesn’t get to take the NL Central’s distribution of hitters with him to Arizona.

How big a deal is a few percentage points in platoon distribution? Well, let’s use Arroyo as an example. If you just take his three year wOBA against numbers (.290/.372), here’s what his total wOBA allowed would look like based on different platoon ratio distributions.


50/50 PA wOBA
RHB 425 0.290
LHB 425 0.374
Total 50% 0.332
—- —- —-
45/55 PA wOBA
RHB 380 0.290
LHB 470 0.374
Total 55% 0.336
—- —- —-
40/60 PA wOBA
RHB 340 0.290
LHB 510 0.374
Total 60% 0.340
You take the same pitcher with the same skills and move him from a 50/50 to a 40/60 distribution, and his wOBA allowed goes up eight points just from the additional number of left-handers he’d have to face. Eight points of wOBA might not seem like a big deal, but over 850 batters faced, that adds up to about an extra six runs allowed per year. Over 200 innings, that’s roughly equivalent to 20 points of ERA.

Now, Arroyo almost certainly won’t face 60% left-handed hitters in Arizona, since it’s still an NL team and he won’t have to face DH-filled line-ups too often, but this is one of those subtle things that suggests that Arroyo’s change of location might make him a little worse off than even the modest projections already suggest, and perhaps more importantly, this flaw significantly limits Arroyo’s usefulness in October. While there’s an argument to be made that regular season totals understate the importance of frontline pitchers and ace relievers in the playoffs — which is likely one one the reasons why teams pay premiums to acquire these types of players — starters with big platoon splits are less valuable in October than they are in the regular season.

If Arizona happens to make the postseason, any team facing them in the NLDS or NLCS will have the ability to stack its roster in such a way as to force Arroyo to face a bunch of left-handed bats, and if Arizona makes it to the World Series, starting him in an AL park is basically a no-go, because otherwise he’d be tasked with facing yet another left-handed bat in the form of the DH. In other words, the Diamondbacks paid Arroyo $23.5 million to help them make the playoffs in the next two years, but if they get there, he probably won’t be able to actually help them much in the postseason, given that his success is pretty dependent on facing line-ups filled with right-handed hitters.

This isn’t just a warning for the Diamondbacks. This is relevant for any team trading for Samardzija, Lynn, or any other right-handed pitcher in the NL Central. It’s not a huge factor and shouldn’t be the reason why you don’t complete a trade for a hurler from that division, but it’s worth keeping in mind that the RHPs in the NL Central are probably not quite as good as they look.

The Marlins and the Coming Giancarlo Stanton Reality.

The Marlins lost 100 games last year, and there’s no way around it: that’s a terrible season. It’s the low point to date of a slide that started after an 87-75 2009, dropping to 82, 90, and 93 losses before hitting the century mark last year, and that’s embarrassing even if we’re just sticking to the on-the-field miscues, rather than also including the continued tragicomedy that is the ownership of Jeffrey Loria. Were it not for the teardown of the Houston Astros, the Marlins would be the worst team in baseball.

But even then, it was easy to argue that it wasn’t entirely a lost season. The atrocious optics of last winter’s massive deal with Toronto gave way to a quiet appreciation that the move actually made a good amount of baseball sense, and of course they saw Jose Fernandez go from “highly touted prospect” to “Rookie of the Year and arguable Cy Young winner in a world without Clayton Kershaw.” I tried to make the case at ESPN last summer that the considerable amount of young talent the organization was accumulating could have them poised to make one of their once-a-decade runs, and my pal Marc Normandin did much the same at Sports on Earth in September.

So if in October, you’d have heard that the Marlins were going to sign six major league free agents, add two more via trade, and almost entirely blow up their under-performing infield, you might have thought that Miami was working to reinforce their young core. You might not have expected this collection of assorted parts from the island of misfit veterans:
Jeff Baker, 2/$3.7m
Brian Bogusevic, traded from Cubs for Justin Ruggiano
Carter Capps, traded from Mariners for Logan Morrison
Rafael Furcal, 1/$3m
Garrett Jones, 2/$7.75m
Carlos Marmol, 1/$1.25m
Casey McGehee, 1/$1.1m
Jarrod Saltalamacchia, 3/$21m
Right. That’s two guys in their thirties who didn’t play in the bigs last year (Furcal & McGehee), and one who was outrighted off the 40-man roster by the Astros just last winter (Bogusevic). The two-year deals went to a pair of 32-year-olds, one of whom was a non-roster invite last season (Baker), the other below replacement-level (Jones). One was, is, and continues to be Carlos Marmol.

While Saltalamacchia’s deal looks nice considering the money thrown around this winter, and Capps is an intriguing bullpen piece, there’s a reason Miami ranks last — by a lot — in our 2014 projections. An infield of mediocre veterans on the back nine — don’t forget that Greg Dobbs has a contract, and Ty Wigginton is in camp on a minor-league deal — around the unplayable offense of shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria isn’t exactly a recipe for success. Last year’s Placido Polanco and Juan Pierre are this year’s Furcal and Jones; wash, rinse, repeat.

So while the Marlins appear content to run out a zombified infield rather than give Donovan Solano (26) another chance or let Derek Dietrich (25) attempt to apply his minor league success in the bigs or try to make a move to acquire a young infielder, 2014 looks like another year in transition. It’ll be a time to let Christian Yelich, Nathan Eovaldi, Jake Marisnick and friends attempt to prove themselves as big league players, and that’s fine, but to even get to 70 wins for the first time in three seasons would count as a success. Safe to say, there’s no hope for October baseball in Miami this year.

That’s not really news, but it is particularly relevant because it means we need to talk about Giancarlo Stanton‘s contract status, which is pretty much the only non-Fernandez or Loria or nightmare home run feature reason anyone talks about the Marlins these days. Stanton is eligible to be a free agent following the 2016 season, which means Miami controls him for three more years. 2014 is almost certainly not going to be a playoff season. It’s excessively difficult to see 2015 being any different. 2016, well, maybe, if the young core progresses well, but by then it’s nearly too late, because the Freddie Freeman extension from last week has shed a bit of light on to Stanton’s value, and if there was any doubt Miami couldn’t retain him before, it should be clear as day now.

Because they were born less than two months apart from each other in the fall of 1989 and both debuted in the bigs in 2010 at age 20, these two make for a nice comparison:

2010-13 PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ WAR
Stanton 2002 .265 .354 .535 .379 138 13.5
Freeman 1908 .285 .358 .466 .357 127 7.1
In essentially the same amount of playing time to date, Stanton has been a superior offensive performer to Freeman in every way, though perhaps the reality isn’t by as much as WAR indicates, since Stanton’s multiple aches and pains on such a large frame have to be taken into account. Still, barring a major injury, power still gets paid, and there’s arguably no one in the game who can match Stanton’s raw power.

Now Freeman has been valued at $28.5 million (including signing bonus) for his remaining three arbitration years, and $106.5 million for the five free agent years Atlanta is purchasing after that. As Dave Cameron has written about extensively over the last week, as shocking as those numbers seem, they’re almost a discount, since teams increasingly are willing to pay for youth, as long as that youth has shown the ability to produce. Freeman easily showed that, and now he’s massively wealthy. Stanton has shown that too, arguably to a greater extent than Freeman, and if he stays healthy, he’ll be rich beyond his wildest dreams as well.

That number is only going to increase the longer Stanton goes without a deal, and the Marlins reportedly haven’t even approached him about a contract as of last month. That’s partially because of the annual inflation of salaries, but also because each year that goes by means that the team has one fewer season of artificially-depressed team control salary they can buy out. If Freeman signed for 8/$135m with three years of control remaining, it’s not at all difficult to see Stanton going for $150m or more next year, a realistic number (assuming, again, a healthy 2014) considering that the similarly-aged Elvis Andrus picked up 8/$120m from Texas last year with two years left of team control. Andrus, obviously, contributes better defense at a much more valuable position, but the market still loves to pay for power, which we’ll soon see when someone actually gives Nelson Cruz a multiyear deal.

Do remember that it’s not only on the team to sign a contract, because the player has to want to strike a deal as well, and no one has forgotten Stanton’s vocal displeasure with the team after the Toronto trade. We haven’t heard much that indicates that his position has changed, and the Freeman deal now puts his price to a level that Miami almost certainly can’t — or more likely, won’t — reach.

Where this leaves the Marlins is in a position that’s entirely full of risk. They can’t compete in 2014 even with Stanton, and his presence may merely help them get to 71 wins rather than 66. They almost certainly can’t keep him long-term, and they risk his value evaporating if his next leg injury is a serious one. Sure, a Stanton trade risks angering their fan base, but at this point it barely matters, since no one bothers to come see this team even with him. Further than that, the way their young talent is set up — heavy on pitching, heavy on outfielders with Yelich, Marisnick, and Marcell Ozuna, but extremely light on infielders outside of third baseman Colin Moran — means that dealing from a position of strength to try to fix a likely problem on the next good Marlins team makes all the sense in the world.

The Marlins likely won’t trade Stanton this year, because they’ve been adamant they plan to “build around him.” Yet with the team very unlikely to contend for at least two of his three remaining years, and the idea of him signing an extension even less likely, there’s no upside for the Marlins here. Freeman’s extension has set a baseline for what Stanton can expect, and for the sake of the potentially-competitive 2016-18 Marlins, Stanton has to go — sooner than later.

Diamondbacks Take a Two-Year Chance on ERA.

Kevin Towers is a confident, talkative man. He’ll tell you what he’s thinking about, and he’ll tell you what he’s doing. There aren’t many anonymous leaks that come out of the Diamondbacks organization because Towers doesn’t exactly keep many secrets — even when he’s actively negotiating. Towers has spent much of this offseason talking about how badly he wanted to acquire a No. 1-type starting pitcher. He was in on Masahiro Tanaka; he’s been in on David Price. He admitted he wanted to make a significant splash. Just the other day Arizona signed Bronson Arroyo for two years and $23.5 million. Or three years and $30 million. The bigger point is that Arizona signed Bronson Arroyo, and now they’re finished.

Arroyo, of course, is no one’s idea of an ace. Most simply, the best pitchers get strikeouts, limit walks and limit dingers. Arroyo does one of those things. He’s 37 in a couple of weeks, meaning he’s basically 37 now. There’s little sexiness with this acquisition, and Towers would tell you he knows he didn’t get a No. 1. Still, Arroyo does have something going in his favor. It’s just a matter of how much you believe in it.

Well, I suppose Arroyo has two things going in his favor. One is that, so far, he’s been extraordinarily durable. In nine straight years, he’s made at least 32 starts. He’s drawn not-inaccurate comparisons to Livan Hernandez. His injury history is enough to make you chuckle: There’s a bit of back soreness, there’s a bit of leg soreness, there’s carpal tunnel, there’s mono and there are four contusions from batted balls. Arroyo’s been the image of dependability, and people credit his work ethic and his smooth, controlled pitching style.

Now, that’s meaningful. But it’s only so meaningful. Hernandez never got hurt. Dan Haren has begun to have a few problems. Jon Garland went straight from reliable to shoulder surgery. You can even point to Roy Halladay. There’s no such thing as an automatic 200 innings. Absolutely, Arroyo has a lower injury risk than Erik Bedard. But he still has some kind of injury risk because he’s still throwing 3,000 pitches a season, and then some.

The other thing Arroyo has going for him are his actual results. The past five seasons, 141 starters have thrown at least 400 innings. Right there, you know this pool is selective for starters decent enough to stick around. In WAR/200 innings, Arroyo ranks in the bottom 10, at 0.9. He’s in the company of guys like Barry Zito and Nick Blackburn and Kevin Correia. In RA9-WAR/200 innings, however, Arroyo ranks 68th — middle of the pack — at 2.6. The difference between those two numbers is 1.7, and that difference is third-greatest over the span, behind Clay Buchholz and Jeremy Hellickson. In short, Arroyo’s been beating his peripherals.

On our leaderboards, FDP-Wins is the difference between RA9-WAR and WAR. Between 2009 and 2013, Arroyo led baseball in FDP-Wins, and he led by almost two over Jered Weaver. Arroyo even beat his own peripherals in his disastrous 2011 campaign. That year, he was worth -0.3 RA9-wins, but he was worth -1.5 FIP-wins. If you look only at Arroyo’s walks, strikeouts and dingers, you see a guy who might be worth a few million on a one-year contract. If you look at the rest, you see a guy who’s better than that.

This is always such a nervous, uncomfortable thing because we never know quite how much stock to put in a guy’s ability to beat his FIP. Arroyo routinely posts better-than-average BABIP marks. He also pitches around the edges, and this implies worse-than-average quality of contact. But then, there are all of the home runs, which Arroyo allows, and which he will forever allow. It’s easy to see how Arroyo could be more deceptive than most, but again, the homers, and the overall contact rate. The true Bronson Arroyo almost has to be somewhere in the middle.

Between 2008 and 2012, the big-league leaders in FDP-Wins were Tim Hudson, Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Cain, Bronson Arroyo and Jered Weaver. In 2013, Hudson undershot his peripherals. Hellickson did, too, by quite a lot. Cain was right around even. Arroyo was Arroyo. Weaver posted an FDP of 0.9. There’s some ability here, but it’s hard to separate from all that noise, and this is why the Diamondbacks are taking a gamble. The contract comes with limited upside, and while it’s not bad, there are more ways for it to go wrong than right.

Towers did well in addressing the need for depth. He recognized the Diamondbacks would probably need more than five starters, especially given their rotation includes Brandon McCarthy, and that Archie Bradley is the only helpful guy on the horizon. Granted, this was an issue partly of Towers’ own making. But while there might not be an enormous difference between Randall Delgado and Arroyo, Arizona’s probably going to need them both. Delgado will open out of the bullpen, but he’ll start some games unless the team gets a whole lot of good luck.

Arroyo probably makes the Diamondbacks better. It depends on how much you believe in his runs-results. And while pitching in Arizona won’t do him many favors, given his style, he is coming from Cincinnati. The contract, also, isn’t potentially devastating in any way, and you can at least count on Arroyo to pound the zone and get plenty of called strikes. Yet what one has to wonder is whether Towers could’ve spent better than this. Arroyo got two years, guaranteed, at $23.5 million. Paul Maholm got a guaranteed one year for $1.5 million, plus incentives. Maholm knows he might end up pitching out of the bullpen. The past three years, Maholm has Arroyo beat easily in WAR, and they’re even in RA9-WAR. Jason Hammel wound up with a cheap one-year contract. Dan Haren got half of Arroyo’s contract. Scott Baker got a minor-league contract. Shaun Marcum got a minor-league contract. Arroyo got Tim Hudson money, but Hudson seems like the safer gamble.

Arroyo’s deal looks like a contract with significant downside. Arroyo seems like he could come apart at any moment. He seems like he’s pitching with just about the narrowest margin of error. He’s also allowed 174 runs in his last 404 innings, pitching half the time in a hitter-friendly ballpark with utterly underwhelming stuff. In the end, this is a two-year bet on continuity of a very particular and unreliable kind.

Dodgers Make a Low Risk Investment in Rotation Depth.

A few weeks ago, I wrote about the Dodgers rotation from a fantasy perspective for RotoGraphs. At that time, the Dodgers had a pool of starters than went 10 deep. Now they have 11 potential starters. Most teams would be satisfied with 10 starters. They might look to add some minor league depth, like a Rodrigo Lopez type, but they probably wouldn’t give out any more major league contracts.

However, the Dodgers have reason to worry about their depth. Chad Billingsley is currently rehabbing from injury. Prospects Zach Lee and Ross Stripling might not be ready in 2014, or the Dodgers may prefer not to rush either pitcher. Stephen Fife is a decent swing man, but the Dodgers would probably prefer to avoid turning to Matt Magill. Josh Beckett and Dan Haren are penciled into the rotation, although both pitchers were less than stable in recent seasons. Beckett in particular is coming off a nerve impingement surgery that limited him to eight starts last season.

So what have the Dodgers done to combat the flakiness of their rotation depth? Why they’ve hired yet another pitcher who fits into the back of the rotation and comes with health concerns.

On Saturday, the Dodgers signed 32-year-old lefty Paul Maholm to a one-year, $1.5 million contract. The deal reportedly includes another $5.5 million in incentives – ostensibly based on innings pitched and/or total starts. The details have yet to be fully disclosed. Maholm dealt with a wrist injury and a sore pitching elbow last season, which is probably why he had to sign an incentive-based contract.

When healthy, Maholm is a solid pitcher who could give the Dodgers an alternative to Beckett at the back of the rotation. Maholm is a soft-tossing lefty who gets the job done by generating ground balls about half the time and limiting walks. His FIP usually weighs in around 4.00, which is better than a typical fifth starter.

Beckett still projects to be the better pitcher in 2014 by a thin margin. Of course, Steamer and Oliver don’t “know” about the nerve impingement surgery. Until the Dodgers get a closer look at him this spring, they simply don’t know if they can count on Beckett to be a major league pitcher. With that in mind, it makes sense for the Dodgers to bring in Maholm. At worst, they’re out $1.5 million plus a tax payment and at best they get a full season of production at slightly below market rate.

Under the new ownership group, it appears that starting pitching depth is a highly valued asset. After the 2012 season, the club was looking at a rotation that included Clayton Kershaw, Beckett, Billingsley, Chris Capuano, Aaron Harang, and Ted Lilly. They also had lesser options like Fife available. Rather than stand pat or trade their depth, the club proceeded to hire Zack Greinke and Hyun-Jin Ryu to improve the overall quality of the rotation. That left the team with five veterans competing for two spots.

They hung onto their options as long as possible. Harang was eventually traded for catcher Ramon Hernandez and salary relief, Billingsley required Tommy John surgery after all, Lilly was a bust in his return from injury, and Beckett also spent most of the season on the disabled. Despite an apparent wealth of depth last February, the Dodgers found it necessary to trade for Ricky Nolasco and pick up Edinson Volquez mid-season in order to reach the playoffs.

That 2013 squad shared many of the same concerns as the current group. There was plenty of veteran depth, but they had half a dozen health issues between them. As we saw in 2012, those health concerns can pile up suddenly, especially when previously healthy pitchers join the walking wounded. All starting pitchers come with a risk of hitting the disabled list during a given season – usually around 30 percent – and many injuries require more than 15 days to heal. As such, there’s a plausible scenario where the Dodgers stockpile of arms makes the difference in the NL West division race.

Multiple layers of redundancy will probably open doors for the Dodgers. In event that they don’t need the depth early in the season, they could make a trade to cover an injury at another position or improve the roster. Recently, there have been concerns that Alexander Guerrero might not be ready to contribute at the start of the season, so the team brought in Justin Turner and Chone Figgins as insurance. It might be possible to parlay Beckett into somebody a little more desirable. Maybe a Daniel Murphy becomes available if the Dodgers are comfortable enough to float Lee in trade talks. And with Matt Kemp likely to start the season on the disabled list, a reliable fourth outfielder might be desirable too. That’s all speculation, but for a franchise that isn’t worried about cash, additional player assets can only be a good thing.

The new leadership in Dodgerland has shown an admirable commitment to a fan base that was tortured under the previous ownership. They’ve produced a product that combines a high payroll, elite talent, and excellent roster redundancy in order to survive the unexpected. When you look around the league, only one other team really combines all three of those features – the Red Sox. It’s become fashionable to point out that the link between spending and winning isn’t all it’s cracked up to be. After all, only three of the top 10 payrolls reached the postseason last year (and we know that one data point is an excellent basis for analysis). I think it’s safe to say that a team with deep pockets has a big advantage, especially when they fastidiously address even the minor holes on the roster.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

tupac003
***Official Los Angeles Dodgers 2024 Thread*** Thank you Fat Joe: Los Angeles Dodgers World Series Champions!!!!
338 339 340
Replies
8K
Views
551K
kvsm23vs24
kvsm23vs24

Latest News

View All News

The ultimate sneaker enthusiast community.

Site contents may not be incorporated into AI training data or any other derivative works without prior express written consent.

Links to participating merchants may generate referral or affiliate commissions that help support our community. See our policies for details. NikeTalk is NOT affiliated with Nike Inc. in any way, shape, or form. All opinions expressed herein do not necessarily reflect those of Nike, Inc.

© 1999-2024 NikeTalk.com

Share this page

| Xenforo Add-ons © by ©XenTR | Media embeds via s9e/MediaSites
Back
Top Bottom