The whole lineup is struggling to hit 6 out of 9 are awful, but they are still leading the WC by 5.5 games. I would have traded away Jurrjens for Matt Kemp early in the season.
Schafer is better than average defensively, but can't hit I think he's almost similar to Bourn who also has no power but better speed/contact than Schafer. Now the Braves are interested in Jonny Gomes. Braves desperately need a power bat I would get Hunter Pence or Carlos Quentin. And Fredi Gonzalez overuses Venters/Kimbrel/O'Flaherty he's killing them just like Bobby did last year nothing much different than Bobby would have done.
Average
Schafer .230
Uggla .192
his power is there but seems to be hitting solo HR's
A. Gonzalez .226 (should have kept Yunel)
McLouth .223 (expected it to be low)
Heyward .225
The whole lineup is struggling to hit 6 out of 9 are awful, but they are still leading the WC by 5.5 games. I would have traded away Jurrjens for Matt Kemp early in the season.
Schafer is better than average defensively, but can't hit I think he's almost similar to Bourn who also has no power but better speed/contact than Schafer. Now the Braves are interested in Jonny Gomes. Braves desperately need a power bat I would get Hunter Pence or Carlos Quentin. And Fredi Gonzalez overuses Venters/Kimbrel/O'Flaherty he's killing them just like Bobby did last year nothing much different than Bobby would have done.
Average
Schafer .230
Uggla .192
his power is there but seems to be hitting solo HR's
A. Gonzalez .226 (should have kept Yunel)
McLouth .223 (expected it to be low)
Heyward .225
It's been more than five weeks since the selections were made in the 2011 Major League Baseball first-year player draft and a few major talents have agreed to terms. Most of the key signings have yet to take place, and contrary to what most may expect, the most important signings for clubs aren't always the organization's highest selection.
Let's take a look at those critical picks and signings, team-by-team, starting with the American League.
Baltimore Orioles
Dylan Bundy is a must-get, due to his overall talent and the potential fallout that will head Baltimore's way if it fails to get him signed, but if it is able to find a way to get third baseman/catcher Nick Delmonico signed by the Aug. 15 deadline, the O's' draft could go from mediocre to above average. Delmonico, the club's sixth-round pick, gets high grades for his work ethic and makeup, not to mention a solid hit tool and the chance to hit for some power. It might take first-round money to get it done, however.
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox had four of the top 40 selections and are known to get their high picks signed. Jackie Bradley Jr. might be a tough one to get done, but Blake Swihart is the key to the club's draft class. The No. 26 overall pick out of Cleveland High School in New Mexico was the top prep catcher in the class and brings an ability to switch hit with power potential. He has the highest ceiling in the club's entire class.
Chicago White Sox
The White Sox have their top pick, outfielder Keenyn Walker, under contract already, as well as their second through sixth-round picks, but have yet to sign eighth-round selection Ian Gardeck, perhaps the key to getting impact out of this year's class. Gardeck, a 6-foot-2, 215-pound right-hander out of Angelina College, has touched the upper-90s with his fastball and could be a late-inning reliever inside of two years.
Cleveland Indians
The Indians' first two picks -- prep shortstop Francisco Lindor at No. 8 overall and Searcy (Ark.) High School right-hander Dillon Howard in Round 2 -- are equally key to the Tribe's draft class. Lindor is key because he brings upside potential as a star middle infielder with a plus bat, and Howard because the Indians sorely lack high-ceiling pitching in their organization after spending first-round picks on college arms in each of the past two drafts.
Detroit Tigers
The Tigers did not have a pick until No. 76 overall and used that choice on Arkansas catcher James McCann, who has not signed yet, but the key draftee still without a deal might be Texas shortstop Brandon Loy. Scouts aren't convinced he'll hit, but the general consensus is he will defend the position, which makes him a solid selection at No. 167 overall. But for the Tigers to benefit from any of it, they have to get him signed or Loy will return to Texas with a chance to go higher than Round 5 next year.
Kansas City Royals
While I loved the selection of prep backstop Cam Gallagher in Round 2, the Royals have to sign Bubba Starling or their 2011 collection lacks a potential all-star, despite selecting high in each round. Starling is likely to command more than $6 million, but the Royals knew the price would be high going in and Starling, a Kansas native, might have handpicked KC if he had the choice, leading most to believe he puts his name on the dotted line and gives up football.
Los Angeles Angels
The Angels already have their top two selections signed in first-rounder C.J. Cron and third-rounder Nick Maronde. But due to the lack of a second-round selection, college right-handers Mike Clevinger and Austin Wood -- Los Angeles' fourth- and sixth-round picks, respectively -- become somewhat key to their class. Clevinger and Wood have above-average velocity and a chance to pitch in a big league bullpen.
Minnesota Twins
The Twins have inked but one of their top five selections, and first-round pick Levi Michael remains unsigned as July winds down. Sandwich-rounders Travis Harrison, a power-hitting corner infielder, and Hudson Boyd, a sturdy right-hander, were two of the top prep players in the draft and might be more important to the Twins' future than Michael, whose value is very much wrapped up in his timetable and defensive value.
New York Yankees
The Yankees' uninspiring draft class has no chance to look better after Aug. 15, but prep first-base prospect Austin Jones could turn out to be a steal in the seventh round. The Yankees, even in all their glory and bottomless pockets, can't afford to lose out on young talent, especially with their nemesis, the Boston Red Sox, piling up quality players every year out of the draft.
Oakland Athletics
Considering how quickly Vanderbilt hurler Sonny Gray, the A's first-round pick and No. 18 overall, could move through the minors and the impact he could have in a starting role at the big league level, Oakland's only must-sign is its top pick this time around. Third-round pick B.A. Vollmuth has big raw power, but his ability to make consistent contact and hit for average are still major questions. The A's need all the offense they can muster.
Seattle Mariners
The Seattle Mariners had the chance to take Rice third baseman Anthony Rendon at No. 2 and passed in favor of pitching, and while they might have good reason to have done so -- we'll see in a few years -- the organization needs power, and third-round pick Kevin Cron has it. The brother of Angels first-rounder C.J. is committed to TCU and isn't likely to sign for slot, but the M's would be wise to consider paying to get Cron in their system. He would immediately become their best slugging prospect, thanks to 70-grade raw power.
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays' farm system is loaded with talent, though it's a little light on hitters, which could make Mikie Mahtook the more important of the Rays' two remaining unsigned first-round selections. Mahtook, an outfielder out of LSU, could be among the fastest movers and an eventual replacement for B.J. Upton should Desmond Jennings flop.
Texas Rangers
The Rangers have deals with each of their first five picks, including left-hander Will Lamb, who might be the key to their class. He's a prototypical left-hander at 6-foot-6 and 190 pounds. He's a good athlete who played center field for Clemson this past season and hit .344, but has touched the mid-90s on the mound, in college and now in pro ball. There are questions to his future role -- starter or reliever -- but it's a live, fresh arm used sparingly in college with upside as a mid-rotation starter or better.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays, who had several extra picks thanks to the free-agent compensation system, have a lot of work to do still, having signed but one of their first 23 picks. Right-hander Tyler Beede (Lawrence Academy, Groton, Mass., No. 21) and second-round pick Daniel Norris, the top prep lefty in the draft, are the keys to the haul for Toronto. If they get both signed, it's a huge draft. If Toronto signs only one of them -- more likely Beede, it seems -- sandwich-rounders Dwight Smith Jr., an outfielder from McIntosh High School (Ga.) with big league bloodlines, and Kevin Comer, a right-hander from Seneca (N.J.) High School, become crucial signings.
Prospects worth getting from buyers.
Spoiler [+]
Most fans are following the trade negotiations involving players like Hunter Pence, Carlos Beltran and Heath Bell because they are the biggest, sexiest names being discussed among the 30 major league teams. However, fans should also be following the top prospects from non-contending teams because they are the game’s potential future stars.
[h4]Prospects on the move[/h4]
For more intel on prospects likely to be dealt before the deadline, check out Kevin Goldstein's latest for Insider. The Baseball Prospectus prospect guru breaks down the American League and National League prospects most likely to move.
As a former general manager, when our team was in the “seller
It's been more than five weeks since the selections were made in the 2011 Major League Baseball first-year player draft and a few major talents have agreed to terms. Most of the key signings have yet to take place, and contrary to what most may expect, the most important signings for clubs aren't always the organization's highest selection.
Let's take a look at those critical picks and signings, team-by-team, starting with the American League.
Baltimore Orioles
Dylan Bundy is a must-get, due to his overall talent and the potential fallout that will head Baltimore's way if it fails to get him signed, but if it is able to find a way to get third baseman/catcher Nick Delmonico signed by the Aug. 15 deadline, the O's' draft could go from mediocre to above average. Delmonico, the club's sixth-round pick, gets high grades for his work ethic and makeup, not to mention a solid hit tool and the chance to hit for some power. It might take first-round money to get it done, however.
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox had four of the top 40 selections and are known to get their high picks signed. Jackie Bradley Jr. might be a tough one to get done, but Blake Swihart is the key to the club's draft class. The No. 26 overall pick out of Cleveland High School in New Mexico was the top prep catcher in the class and brings an ability to switch hit with power potential. He has the highest ceiling in the club's entire class.
Chicago White Sox
The White Sox have their top pick, outfielder Keenyn Walker, under contract already, as well as their second through sixth-round picks, but have yet to sign eighth-round selection Ian Gardeck, perhaps the key to getting impact out of this year's class. Gardeck, a 6-foot-2, 215-pound right-hander out of Angelina College, has touched the upper-90s with his fastball and could be a late-inning reliever inside of two years.
Cleveland Indians
The Indians' first two picks -- prep shortstop Francisco Lindor at No. 8 overall and Searcy (Ark.) High School right-hander Dillon Howard in Round 2 -- are equally key to the Tribe's draft class. Lindor is key because he brings upside potential as a star middle infielder with a plus bat, and Howard because the Indians sorely lack high-ceiling pitching in their organization after spending first-round picks on college arms in each of the past two drafts.
Detroit Tigers
The Tigers did not have a pick until No. 76 overall and used that choice on Arkansas catcher James McCann, who has not signed yet, but the key draftee still without a deal might be Texas shortstop Brandon Loy. Scouts aren't convinced he'll hit, but the general consensus is he will defend the position, which makes him a solid selection at No. 167 overall. But for the Tigers to benefit from any of it, they have to get him signed or Loy will return to Texas with a chance to go higher than Round 5 next year.
Kansas City Royals
While I loved the selection of prep backstop Cam Gallagher in Round 2, the Royals have to sign Bubba Starling or their 2011 collection lacks a potential all-star, despite selecting high in each round. Starling is likely to command more than $6 million, but the Royals knew the price would be high going in and Starling, a Kansas native, might have handpicked KC if he had the choice, leading most to believe he puts his name on the dotted line and gives up football.
Los Angeles Angels
The Angels already have their top two selections signed in first-rounder C.J. Cron and third-rounder Nick Maronde. But due to the lack of a second-round selection, college right-handers Mike Clevinger and Austin Wood -- Los Angeles' fourth- and sixth-round picks, respectively -- become somewhat key to their class. Clevinger and Wood have above-average velocity and a chance to pitch in a big league bullpen.
Minnesota Twins
The Twins have inked but one of their top five selections, and first-round pick Levi Michael remains unsigned as July winds down. Sandwich-rounders Travis Harrison, a power-hitting corner infielder, and Hudson Boyd, a sturdy right-hander, were two of the top prep players in the draft and might be more important to the Twins' future than Michael, whose value is very much wrapped up in his timetable and defensive value.
New York Yankees
The Yankees' uninspiring draft class has no chance to look better after Aug. 15, but prep first-base prospect Austin Jones could turn out to be a steal in the seventh round. The Yankees, even in all their glory and bottomless pockets, can't afford to lose out on young talent, especially with their nemesis, the Boston Red Sox, piling up quality players every year out of the draft.
Oakland Athletics
Considering how quickly Vanderbilt hurler Sonny Gray, the A's first-round pick and No. 18 overall, could move through the minors and the impact he could have in a starting role at the big league level, Oakland's only must-sign is its top pick this time around. Third-round pick B.A. Vollmuth has big raw power, but his ability to make consistent contact and hit for average are still major questions. The A's need all the offense they can muster.
Seattle Mariners
The Seattle Mariners had the chance to take Rice third baseman Anthony Rendon at No. 2 and passed in favor of pitching, and while they might have good reason to have done so -- we'll see in a few years -- the organization needs power, and third-round pick Kevin Cron has it. The brother of Angels first-rounder C.J. is committed to TCU and isn't likely to sign for slot, but the M's would be wise to consider paying to get Cron in their system. He would immediately become their best slugging prospect, thanks to 70-grade raw power.
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays' farm system is loaded with talent, though it's a little light on hitters, which could make Mikie Mahtook the more important of the Rays' two remaining unsigned first-round selections. Mahtook, an outfielder out of LSU, could be among the fastest movers and an eventual replacement for B.J. Upton should Desmond Jennings flop.
Texas Rangers
The Rangers have deals with each of their first five picks, including left-hander Will Lamb, who might be the key to their class. He's a prototypical left-hander at 6-foot-6 and 190 pounds. He's a good athlete who played center field for Clemson this past season and hit .344, but has touched the mid-90s on the mound, in college and now in pro ball. There are questions to his future role -- starter or reliever -- but it's a live, fresh arm used sparingly in college with upside as a mid-rotation starter or better.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays, who had several extra picks thanks to the free-agent compensation system, have a lot of work to do still, having signed but one of their first 23 picks. Right-hander Tyler Beede (Lawrence Academy, Groton, Mass., No. 21) and second-round pick Daniel Norris, the top prep lefty in the draft, are the keys to the haul for Toronto. If they get both signed, it's a huge draft. If Toronto signs only one of them -- more likely Beede, it seems -- sandwich-rounders Dwight Smith Jr., an outfielder from McIntosh High School (Ga.) with big league bloodlines, and Kevin Comer, a right-hander from Seneca (N.J.) High School, become crucial signings.
Prospects worth getting from buyers.
Spoiler [+]
Most fans are following the trade negotiations involving players like Hunter Pence, Carlos Beltran and Heath Bell because they are the biggest, sexiest names being discussed among the 30 major league teams. However, fans should also be following the top prospects from non-contending teams because they are the game’s potential future stars.
[h4]Prospects on the move[/h4]
For more intel on prospects likely to be dealt before the deadline, check out Kevin Goldstein's latest for Insider. The Baseball Prospectus prospect guru breaks down the American League and National League prospects most likely to move.
As a former general manager, when our team was in the “seller
Miguel Cabrera gets most of the accolades in the http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?mode=viewstat&stat=556Detroit Tigers' historically top-heavy lineup, and not without reason -- the first baseman's .349 True Average (TAv) trails only Jose Bautista's among American League batters. However, Cabrera hasn't been the most valuable position player in Detroit this season. That title belongs to Alex Avila, a 24-year-old catcher who came up through the Tigers' system before making his major league debut late in 2009.
Avila acquitted himself well in his initial exposure to the majors but his bat crashed back to earth last season, when he hit .228/.316/.340 while splitting catching duties with Gerald Laird. This season, however, he's hit well enough to take over the team lead in Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP), posting a 3.4 figure to Cabrera's 3.1.
There's still plenty of time for Avila to be overtaken by another Tiger, but if he maintains his productive pace, he'll achieve a distinction that few catchers can claim. Since 1950, 44 catchers have combined to lead their teams' position players in WARP just 85 times. Brian McCann is the only other backstop in line for the honor this year; McCann, Joe Mauer and Geovany Soto pulled off the feat in 2010.
Prior research has shown that catchers tend to take longer to become established than players at other positions, and they also tend to decline more quickly after reaching their peak. In 2005-09, the average debut age among catchers was 24.8, more than a year older compared to their more athletic counterparts at shortstop and over two years older than Avila was as a rookie. As rare as it is for catchers to earn starting gigs at Avila's age, it's even rarer for them to excel in that role. If Avila could sustain his .317 TAv over at least 400 plate appearances, he'd finish with the 11th-best figure since 1950 among catchers in their age-25-and-under seasons. Most of the marks above that belong either to Hall of Famers like Johnny Bench and Carlton Fisk, or to borderline candidates like Joe Torre and Ted Simmons.
Because the ranks of possible catchers are restricted to the relatively small pool of players capable of meeting the position's lofty minimum defensive requirements, bats worth boasting about are in short supply behind the plate. The few valuable hitters that do make it through the minor league gauntlet with their tools of ignorance intact often fade early, becoming Jason Kendall-like shadows of their former selves. Even Ivan Rodriguez, whose longevity at the position has allowed him to approach 3,000 hits -- a milestone no catcher has reached -- had his last hurrah as an above-average offensive player at age 32.
[h4]Catch This[/h4]
Based on True Average, catchers produce less offense than any other position, which is why Alex Avila's potent bat is so valuable.
C
.250
SS
.251
2B
.260
3B
.263
CF
.264
LF
.272
DH
.272
RF
.277
1B
.283
[th=""]Position[/th][th=""]TAv[/th]
Early success at bat bodes well for Avila's bank account, but it's even better news for the Tigers, who hold one of baseball's few golden tickets to offensive excellence at catcher. Check out the chart to the right, which gives a league-wide breakdown of TAv by position (excluding pitchers and pinch-hitters) since 2008, with .260 constituting league average.
Because backstops are a weak bunch of hitters on the whole, the few teams that employ something better than yet another catch-and-throw type enjoy a competitive advantage. Over the past few seasons, the Tigers have witnessed the potential of employing an offensive catcher firsthand; Mauer has led Minnesota Twins position players in WARP for three straight seasons, during which time the Twins have won two division titles and finished one win away from a third.
There was more to the Twins' slow start in 2011 -- which has reduced their playoff odds to roughly 5 percent, despite a hot June and July -- than Mauer's absence due to bilateral leg weakness, but having to make do with the likes of Drew Butera, Steve Holm and Rene Rivera stripped the Twins of a strength that had previously set them apart, transforming them into just another team fruitlessly looking for lumber behind the plate.
Mauer has regained some semblance of his stroke in July, though he has yet to hit for any power. Just six of his 39 hits have gone for extra bases, and he has yet to go yard. Regardless, the damage to the Twins' playoff hopes already is done, and Mauer's repeated lower-body ailments and subsequent flirtations with first base suggest that his days of giving the Twins a big bat at a position where such sights are scarce might soon be behind him.
Elsewhere in the AL Central, A.J. Pierzynski has given the White Sox a performance in line with that of a league-average catcher; the division's other young hope for an offense-first catcher is the Indians' Carlos Santana, whose commendable patience and pop have helped offset his low average in 2011.
The Tigers owe much of their success to bigger names like Cabrera and Justin Verlander, but a substantial portion of their better-than-even October odds can be traced to Avila's outsized impact at a position where hot hitting is the exception rather than the rule.
Ideal trades for AL contenders.
Spoiler [+]
BOSTON RED SOX
Primary needs: Right-handed-hitting right fielder and left-handed reliever.
Ideal:Hunter Pence of the Astros. He’s a complete player. He looks awkward in everything he does, but he does everything well on the field. He can hit, hit for power, play above-average defense, throw you out on the bases, show you some speed and is a good clubhouse guy. He really has been consistent in his career, averaging 25 home runs, 85 RBIs and 15 steals. He might hit six or seventh in the Red Sox lineup but would be their long-term solution in right field to replace J.D.Drew, who will be a free agent this winter. Reality: The Red Sox have to get healthy for a legitimate chance to get to the World Series. I highly doubt that GM Theo Epstein is prepared to trade half his farm system for Pence, which is the current asking price. He might instead make a minor deal with Oakland for Josh Willingham, Conor Jackson or David DeJesus. The Red Sox will explore every player available from Carlos Beltran to Pence to Ubaldo Jimenez. However, at the end of the day, I think Epstein will make minor moves, rather than a major splash.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Primary needs: Right-handed reliever to help set up Sergio Santos.
Ideal: Oakland's Grant Balfour. Ken Williams and Billy Beane have consummated many deals together, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they do another one by the deadline. Put Balfour together with Jesse Crain, Matt Thornton, Chris Sale and Santos, and it’s pretty formidable bullpen.
Reality: Ken Williams is always active at the deadline, and this trade market is flooded with available relief pitchers. He’ll get one of the high-profile bullpen arms on the market.
CLEVELAND INDIANS
Primary needs: Right-handed-hitting corner outfielder who can hit in the middle of the lineup.
Ideal: Pence and Carlos Beltran are the two best available outfielders on the market, but Cleveland's not going to pay the price in terms of prospects to get either one.
Reality: Willingham or Ryan Ludwick of the San Diego Padres are the two most realistic acquisitions. Both players would give them an RBI bat and also protect them in case Grady Sizemore can’t get healthy. Willingham is a below-average defender and has some health questions regarding his back and Achilles that need to be cleared up before a deal is closed. Ludwick can hit some home runs, but he really didn’t help the Padres as much as expected when they traded for him at the same time last year. The price should be reasonable for either one.
Reality: The Tigers aren’t getting Kuroda because he has a no-trade clause and doesn’t want to pitch for them. The Cubs don’t want to trade Ryan Dempster, and the Astros want blue-chip pitching prospect Jacob Turner in a Wandy Rodriguez trade. Jason Marquis or Aaron Harang are more realistic.
LOS ANGELES ANGELS
Primary needs: Middle-of-the-order left-handed hitter, a third baseman with power who can drive runs in and a reliever.
Ideal:Aramis Ramirez of the Cubs. He would give the Angels another middle-of-the-order bat (albeit a right-handed one) who can drive in runs and give the club All-Star-level production at third base. The problem is that Ramirez has a full no-trade clause, and he’s not ready to be traded. I still think he could be convinced to accept a deal by Angels veterans such as Vernon Wells and Torii Hunter. What's interesting to note is that Ramirez has a $16.5 million option that automatically vests if he's traded. However, he has said he would want to waive that clause should he accept a trade in order to become a free agent this winter. Considering his recent hot streak, it's not hard to see why he'd want to hit the open market as soon as possible.
Reality: General manager Tony Reagins pulled the trigger last year on the Dan Haren deal, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he does another major deal before this year's deadline. The market is thin for what he’s seeking, so the Angels could end up with a reliever instead. Possibilities include Jon Rauch, Matt Guerrier, Jason Isringhausen, Chad Qualls, Tyler Clippard and Rafael Betancourt.
MINNESOTA TWINS
Primary needs: Top-of-the-rotation starter and reliever.
Ideal: Jimenez. They’ve lacked a No. 1 starter since trading Johan Santana, and the lack of a true ace is a big reason the Twins have been swept in the first round of the playoffs the past two Octobers.
Reality: Their payroll is over $100 million, and they’re not prepared to spend much more. However, if they can get an inexpensive reliever, they might make a minor deal, but don’t look for them to trade a good prospect like they did last year when they sent Wilson Ramos to the Nationals for Matt Capps.
NEW YORK YANKEES
Primary needs: Left-handed reliever and backup third baseman.
Ideal:Sean Marshall would be the perfect fit. Can you imagine having Marshall and Logan from the left side and David Robertson, Rafael Soriano and Mariano Rivera to finish games? Marshall also is very familiar with Yankees pitching coach Larry Rothschild, who used to work for the Cubs. Perfect fit for the Yankees.
Reality: The Cubs aren’t trading Marshall, according to their GM Jim Hendry. The Yankees might take a chance on Randy Choate as a situational sixth-inning lefty if they can get him for practically nothing. He pitched well in the AL East last year for the Rays and might bounce back if the Yankees get him. Don’t look for Brian Cashman to trade prospects Jesus Montero, Manny Banuelos or Dellin Betances at this deadline. He has kicked the tires on Jimenez, Rodriguez and Pence, but I doubt Cashman makes a blockbuster at this deadline.
TAMPA BAY RAYS
Primary needs: Middle-of-the-order bat and bullpen help if they’re buying, long-term solution at catcher if they’re selling.
Ideal: Reds prospects Devin Mesoraco and Yonder Alonso would be a great haul for James Shields. This deal would give the Rays their long-term solutions at catcher and first base and give the Reds a top-of-the-rotation starter to go with Johnny Cueto. Shields has reasonable club options for the next three seasons, so he would not be a short-term rental, which is why the price would be so steep. If the Rays were willing to substitute catching prospect Yasmani Grandal for Mesoraco in this trade, the Reds would have to consider it. The Rays could replace Shields in the rotation with Matt Moore, one of baseball’s best pitching prospects.
Reality: Andrew Friedman has never been a trade-deadline GM. The Rays are on the borderline of being a buyer or seller and still could go either way. A deal of B.J. Upton to the Nationals or Rockies is a possibility, which would open the doors for Desmond Jennings and Brandon Guyer.
Reality: They’re not going to trade prospects Martin Perez or Jurickson Profar, and they shouldn’t. Therefore, the rest of the farm system is in play. GM Jon Daniels traded for Cliff Lee at last year’s trade deadline, and I expect him to make another splash this year. My gut says he’s getting either Bell or Adams from the Padres.
Rumors.
Spoiler [+]
http://[h3]Sizemore and the trade deadline[/h3]
11:00AM ET
UPDATE: In addition to the problems with his knee, Sizemore had sports hernia surgery and will be out four to six weeks, the Indians announced Thursday. Even before the latest injury news to Sizemore, the Plain Dealer reports the Tribe has been pursuing an outfield bat such as Ryan Ludwick, Jeff Francoeur, Josh Willingham or Coco Crisp.
--
Grady Sizemore's latest trip to the disabled list will not accelerate the Cleveland Indians' pursuit of a deal to improve their offense, reports Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer.
GM Chris Antonetti has been looking for a right-handed hitting outfielder and a starting pitcher, and those needs haven't changed. "We continue to explore ways to improve the team," Antonetti tells Hoynes. "We're exploring all means possible."
Don't look for the Tribe to mortgage the future on any deal. Hoynes said there is no way an up-and-coming player such as Jason Kipnis and Lonnie Chisenhall will be traded for a free-agent rental.
Sizemore was sent back to Cleveland to have tests done on his knee before making any estimates about how much time he will miss. Manager Manny Acta said Ezequiel Carrera will see the majority of playing time in center field in place of Sizemore.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Bourn a fit in Atlanta?[/h3]
10:49AM ET
[h5]Houston Astros [/h5]
Whenever a general manager says a deal isn't about the money, it almost always is. So give the Houston Astros credit for admitting that the expected franchise overhaul has the bottom line in mind.
"Certainly, all players are going to be viewed not only in the context of what they bring to the table from a performance standpoint but also the economics," GM Ed Wade concedes to Zachary Levine of the Houston Chronicle.
Levine analyzes the Astros' plans as the deadline approaches and says every name is on the table with the exception of Carlos Lee, and that is only because his contract is too burdensome.
The incoming ownership group headed by Jim Crane wants to build from the farm system up, which will promt Wade to entertain offers for Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn. The Astros could take a big step toward clearing payroll for the new ownership regime by trading Brett Myers and Wandy Rodriguez.
ESPN.com's Jim Bowden suggests Bourn could be an ideal fit for at least one NL team:
"Houston?s Michael Bourn would give the Braves a legitimate top-of-the-order game-changer who led the NL in steals the last two years and is leading the league again this year. He has a .350 OBP and can run the ball down in center field with phenomenal range. The Braves could offer the Astros left-handed starter Mike Minor, outfielder Jordan Schafer and pitching prospect J.J. Hoover in a blockbuster. The Astros need to build for the future, and the chance to get two pitching prospects and a good defensive center fielder with a strong arm would give them a big boost."
http://[h3]SFO balks at top prospect for Beltran[/h3]
10:21AM ET
[h5]San Francisco Giants [/h5]
The San Francisco Giants so far have been unable to complete a deal to add an impact bat. (Sorry, Jeff Keppinger from the Astros doesn't count).
The big fish in the pond remains Carlos Beltran, and the Giants openly flirted with the Mets outfielder when the teams played a series by the bay just before the All-Star break.
The Giants are still in pursuit, and a report in Friday's New York Daily News says San Francisco is willing to assume most or all of the $6 million left on Beltran's deal. The roadblock is the Giants' unwillingness to part with a high-end prospect in exchange for a two-month rental.
A report in the New York Post earlier this month listed pitcher Zach Wheeler, the sixth overall pick in the 2009 draft, as being part of the discussion. The Mets would seemingly make that deal in a heartbeat, but Giants GM Brian Sabean may think otherwise.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Shields wants to stay in Tampa[/h3]
9:58AM ET
We mentioned earlier this week how the Tampa Bay Rays, because of their limited financial resources, don't fall into a neat category as the trade deadline approaches.
The name of James Shields continues to pop up, and the righthander again demonstrated his value Thursday night when he bested the Yankees' CC Sabathia in a pitcher's duel at Tropicana Field.
The Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals have been mentioned as suitors, but Shields tells Marc Topkin of the St. Pete Times he has no interest in leaving Florida's Gulf Coast. "I love this town. I want to be here. And I think we have a good team," Shields said.
What would it take to land Shields? ESPN.com's Jim Bowden gives his suggestion on what the Reds could offer:
"Reds prospects Devin Mesoraco and Yonder Alonso would be a great haul for Shields. This deal would give the Rays their long-term solutions at catcher and first base and give the Reds a top-of-the-rotation starter to go with Johnny Cueto. Shields has reasonable club options for the next three seasons, so he would not be a short-term rental, which is why the price would be so steep. If the Rays were willing to substitute catching prospect Yasmani Grandal for Mesoraco in this trade, the Reds would have to consider it. The Rays could replace Shields in the rotation with Matt Moore, one of baseball?s best pitching prospects."
Ian Stewart has started all but one game at third base for the Rockies since the 4th of July weekend, in part to evaluate him and also to showcase him for interested parties.
Stewart has done little to generate any buzz, reports Jim Armstrong of the Denver Post. Stewart, who is making $2.29 million this season, struck out three times Thursday, dropping his average to .143 with one RBI in 91 at-bats. Worst of all, he is 0-for-18 with runners in scoring position.
At this stage, Stewart could be in danger of being released.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Drew injury won't alter plans in ARI[/h3]
9:17AM ET
UPDATE: Even with Drew lost for the season, general manager Kevin Towers says the Diamondbacks' priority is to seek pitching help instead of adding an infielder.
Veteran Cody Ransom was recalled Thursday from Triple-A Reno to replace Drew's spot on the roster.
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Keeping pace in the National League West got more difficult for the Arizona Diamondbacks after shortstop Stephen Drew fractured his right ankle sliding into home plate in Wednesday's loss to the Brewers.
Manager Kirk Gibson confirmed Drew is lost for the season, but didn't have any immediate answer on Drew's replacement. The most likely candidate is veteran Willie Bloomquist, while another possibility is the versatile Geoff Blum, who recently made his season debut following knee surgery.
The D-backs already are in the market for a reliever and a starting pitcher, and now must decide if they want to divert some of their resources for a shortstop. GM Kevin Towers might put in a call to his old club in San Diego to check in on the availability of Jason Bartlett. In his Big Board, ESPN Insider's Jim Bowden says the Padres would love to get out of the final year of Bartlett's contract that pays $5.5 million in 2012.
"The Diamondbacks may just decide to go with Bloomquist at shortstop, because external solutions like the Astros' Clint Barmes and the Dodgers' Jamey Carroll may be too expensive for a team that is now four-and-a-half games behind the Giants."
UPDATE:MLB.com's Joe Frisaro says Nunez is drawing interest from several teams. The Tigers are looking for pitching help and the Fish are believed to be eyeing the recently demoted Brandon Inge. Could Nunez and Inge be the components of a deal?
ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick reported earlier this week that the Phillies, who have had plenty of bullpen issues, have talked to the Marlins about Nunez.
If the Marlins decide to deal, manager Jack McKeon tells the Miami Herald says he would likely use Edward Mujica as his closer. Mujica has a sterling 34/5 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
UPDATE: With Lidge and Jose Contreras expected to be back at some point, that would eliminate the need for the Phillies to seek bullpen depth by the July 31 deadline, writes MLB.com's Todd Zolecki.
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UPDATE: Lidge pitched a scoreless inning Wednesday for Lakewood and hopes to return Friday when the Phillies open a long home stand against the Padres.
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UPDATE: It appears far from a foregone conclusion that Lidge returns as a closer once he's back, at least based on his performance and the pace if his rehab stint. He started his rehab on July 4 and here it is more than two weeks later and he's still out working off the rust. He's made seven appearances -- No. 8 coming in Lakewood Wednesday night and the veteran is set to be reevaluated Thursday.
The results of that evaluation could be instrumental in the club's decision to head out on the trade market. If Lidge appears good to go, perhaps the Phillies back off a bit and go for a seventh or eighth inning arm, if anything at all. If there are concerns going forward, the club may go harder after Heath Bell.
Lidge, who has yet to pitch this season due to rotator cuff issues, threw 28 pitches Thursday for Double-A Reading against Trenton, and allowed two runs. The erstwhile closer surrendered one hit and one walk, hit two batters, and threw three wild pitches.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Lohse expects to start Sunday[/h3]
8:36AM ET
After making a detour back to St. Louis to have his right medical finger examined, Cardinals righthander Kyle Lohse expects to make his next start Sunday in Pittsburgh.
Lohse first felt discomfort in the finger in his final start before the All-Star break, and inflammation resurfaced Tuesday while pitching against the Mets.
If Lohse needs to be skipped, manager Tony La Russa suggested that the Cardinals could find a replacement from the current roster. Derrick Goold of the Post Dispatch says the likely candidate in that scenario would be rookie Lance Lynn, who pitched Wednesday in relief.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Jocketty: Reds still buyers[/h3]
8:19AM ET
[h5]Cincinnati Reds [/h5]
Speculation regarding the Cincinnati Reds has had them straddling the fence between buyers and sellers. Just four games off the pace in the National League Central, the Reds aren't ready to toss in the towel.
GM Walt Jocketty tells John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer that the Reds are still buyers. Starting pitching is the top priority, and the Reds have been linked to Colorado's Ubaldo Jimenez and Tampa Bay's James Shields.
At this stage, no team appears to have the arsenal to run away with the division, so the Reds remain a viable contender, even if they are below .500.
Is a deal for Jimenez feasible? ESPN Insider's Jim Bowden gives his take on what it would take:
"The Reds could try to center a package around two former No. 1 picks in first baseman Yonder Alonso and catcher Yasmani Grandal. However, Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd will want a top-end starter in return, and the Reds don?t want to part with pitcher Homer Bailey, who still might develop into a top-of-the-rotation starter. If the Rockies can find another pitching prospect they like, this could be a good fit."
http://[h3]Will Mariners deal for a bat?[/h3]
8:00AM ET
[h5]Seattle Mariners [/h5]
The frustration of the Seattle Mariners' 12-game losing streak may have reached a boiling point. Following a 7-5 loss in Toronto Thursday, the clubhouse door was locked as manager Eric Wedge blasted his struggling team, telling them to toughen up.
The Mariners desperately need an offensive boost, and GM Jack Zduriencik must decide whether he is willing to part with closer Brandon League and/or starters Jason Vargas and Doug Fister.
Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times wrote Thursday that Chone Figgins is drawing some interest from the Reds, who are looking for a leadoff hitter.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Pence to Phils unlikely?[/h3]
7:42AM ET
UPDATE: Pence's name has been mentioned around Philadelphia for months, but MLB.com's Todd Zolecki says the chances of another blockbuster with the Phillies would seen small. The teams worked out a deal for Roy Oswalt last summer.
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Plenty of changes could be coming in Houston once Jim Crane is approved as the new owner, but it remains to be seen if that will include a deal for Hunter Pence.
In Thursday's blog, ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney says the odds of a deal for Pence may have picked up over the last few days. "Maybe Crane's group has sent word that it wants the most difficult payroll slashing to be done before it takes over, which is something done with a lot of companies," Olney writes.
With the Pirates in Houston lastweekend, there was talk that the Bucs could be interested in Pence, and the Astros outfielder did not seem opposed to the idea. But Pence is making $6.9 million this season and has two years of arbitration eligibility left, so that could be too hefty of a financial commitment for the Bucs.
That doesn't close the door teams such as the Red Sox, Phillies or Braves, all of whom are looking for a bat.
- Doug Mittler
[h5]Buster Olney[/h5]
Astros gauging the market for Pence?
"The Astros could handle this the way the Rockies have with Ubaldo Jimenez - ask for the sun and the moon and the stars in return, while knowing a trade is unlikely. But that's not the feeling other teams are getting right now; they are sensing that the Astros are ready to trade. We?ll see."
UPDATE: Beltran has told friends that he prefers to stay in the National League, reports David Lennon of Newsday.
Lennon adds that a key factor could be Beltran's aversion to being a DH, but that would not necessarily kill a deal to an American League club.
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UPDATE: Our Buster Olney tweets Thursday that even the Brewers have interest in Beltran, though it's unclear if they would be able to put together a package of talent the Mets would find attractive ater trading away most of thert top talents in other deals the past few seasons. Perhaps a third team could get involved?
The Rangers have interest, too, tweets Ken Rosenthal, but they have their sights set on pitching first and foremost.
...
UPDATE: The Mets would not be opposed to deal Beltran within the NL East to Philadelphia or Atlanta if those teams offered the most in return, reports Peter Botte in Thursday's NY Daily News.
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UPDATE: The Red Sox have made their interest in Beltran known to the Mets, but so far are unwilling to part with the type of top-tier prospects New York GM Sandy Alderson is seeking in return, reports Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com
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UPDATE: Ken Rosenthal reported Tuesday that the Red Sox and Phillies are the most aggressive clubs in trade talks for Beltran.
...
UPDATE: With Beltran's salary a possible issue for potential trade suitors, ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney wrote earlier this week that the Mets are willing to pick up the money in order to get a better return. Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com adds Tuesday that the Mets are willing to cover Beltran's remaining salary because they are demanding top-notch young talent in return.
Not necessarily, according to GM Sandy Alderson, who insisted Wednesday the deal for K-Rod is not the start of a fire sale. Alderson, of course, could be telling suitors that Beltran will not come cheaply.
The speculation regarding Beltran will only escalate and the outfielder has fanned the flames with his candid comments about trade partners. The outfielder, for example, said it would be a no-brainer to OK a deal to the Red Sox should he be asked to do so.
Beltran is drawing "real interest" from as many as seven clubs, tweets Olney. Olney added later Wednesday that the Yankees are not one of those clubs. Olney says a wild card in the Beltran Sweepstakes could be the Detroit Tigers, who have a lot at stake with manager Jim Leyland in the final year of his contract.
The Giants remain a primary target and Kevin Kernan of the New York Post says that Beltran may soon be headed to San Francisco.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Cubs would take hit to deal Soriano[/h3]
7:14AM ET
The Chicago Cubs are dragging along a proverbial ball and chain as the deadline approaches. It is the no-trade clauses that accompany the contracts of Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Zambrano, deals that effectively curtail any major rebuilding plans.
While Ramirez so far has expressed a desire to stay put, Soriano may now be willing to escape Chicago's North Side. Soriano told Gordon Wittenmyer of the Sun-Times earlier this week he won't stand in the way if the Cubs can send him to the contender.
The Cubs may now be willing to eat enough of the $61 million left on his contract to make it work. Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago.com reported Thursday night that the Cubs would be willing to "absorb a high percentage" of Soriano's contract if the right trade offer came along.
One wild rumor had the Yankees expressing interest in Soriano, who began his career in the Bronx, but that one seems remote at best.
Brandon Inge has struggled this season and Wednesday sent to Triple-A -- he accepted the assignment -- but the veteran may be back in the big leagues sooner than later. It may be in a teal uniform, but it's still the big leagues.
Inge could split time with lefty-hitting Greg Dobbs and give the Fish another option to bridge the gap to prospect Matt Dominguez, who could be ready in a year's time.
Inge became expendable due to the acquisition of Wilson Betemit from Kansas City.
- Jason A. Churchill
http://[h3]Impact of Kipnis call-up[/h3]
6:51AM ET
[h5]Cleveland Indians [/h5]
UPDATE: Bastian later writes it is unclear whether Kipnis will be used at second base, where Orlando Cabrera resides, or be tried in the outfield, where the Tribe has injury woes.
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UPDATE: Kipnis was called up Thursday and despite having outfield experience is expected to take over at second base, tweets Jordan Bastian of MLB.com.
Kipnis should provide a consistent upgrade for the Tribe, who could still be in the market for outfield help, too.
...
Four second basemen in Cleveland this season have hit just .246/.286/.335, the vast majority of that from veteran Orlando Cabrera. Those fortunes could turn around after the break, as the club's top remaining infield prospect appears to be ready for the show.
Jason Kipnis, who took a Julio Teheran fastball over the wall in right field to lead off Sunday's Futures Game, and heads back to Triple-A Columbus hitting .297 with a .380 on-base percentage and 11 long balls. His defensive transition from outfield to second base has gone well, and he could help the Tribe stay in the race in the American League Central.
"He was ready six weeks ago," one scout told me over the weekend. "That's a good looking, young infield and he's a big part of that." Kipnis could join youngsters Asdrubal Cabrera, Matt LaPorta and Lonnie Chisenhall as well as catcher Carlos Santana as stalwarts in Cleveland for years to come.
"Kipnis is an aggressive player who can do a little bit of everything offensively, and given the depth at second base this season, he's worth an immediate look in almost all formats, especially if you missed out on Dustin Ackley when he came up. When Kipnis does arrive, he'll likely play almost every day, like Chisenhall. One of the traits I've liked about Kipnis is that his numbers have gotten better with each promotion. His slugging and OPS marks have risen at each of his four minor league stops, and that's a good sign as he prepares to make the transition to the highest level."
Miguel Cabrera gets most of the accolades in the http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?mode=viewstat&stat=556Detroit Tigers' historically top-heavy lineup, and not without reason -- the first baseman's .349 True Average (TAv) trails only Jose Bautista's among American League batters. However, Cabrera hasn't been the most valuable position player in Detroit this season. That title belongs to Alex Avila, a 24-year-old catcher who came up through the Tigers' system before making his major league debut late in 2009.
Avila acquitted himself well in his initial exposure to the majors but his bat crashed back to earth last season, when he hit .228/.316/.340 while splitting catching duties with Gerald Laird. This season, however, he's hit well enough to take over the team lead in Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP), posting a 3.4 figure to Cabrera's 3.1.
There's still plenty of time for Avila to be overtaken by another Tiger, but if he maintains his productive pace, he'll achieve a distinction that few catchers can claim. Since 1950, 44 catchers have combined to lead their teams' position players in WARP just 85 times. Brian McCann is the only other backstop in line for the honor this year; McCann, Joe Mauer and Geovany Soto pulled off the feat in 2010.
Prior research has shown that catchers tend to take longer to become established than players at other positions, and they also tend to decline more quickly after reaching their peak. In 2005-09, the average debut age among catchers was 24.8, more than a year older compared to their more athletic counterparts at shortstop and over two years older than Avila was as a rookie. As rare as it is for catchers to earn starting gigs at Avila's age, it's even rarer for them to excel in that role. If Avila could sustain his .317 TAv over at least 400 plate appearances, he'd finish with the 11th-best figure since 1950 among catchers in their age-25-and-under seasons. Most of the marks above that belong either to Hall of Famers like Johnny Bench and Carlton Fisk, or to borderline candidates like Joe Torre and Ted Simmons.
Because the ranks of possible catchers are restricted to the relatively small pool of players capable of meeting the position's lofty minimum defensive requirements, bats worth boasting about are in short supply behind the plate. The few valuable hitters that do make it through the minor league gauntlet with their tools of ignorance intact often fade early, becoming Jason Kendall-like shadows of their former selves. Even Ivan Rodriguez, whose longevity at the position has allowed him to approach 3,000 hits -- a milestone no catcher has reached -- had his last hurrah as an above-average offensive player at age 32.
[h4]Catch This[/h4]
Based on True Average, catchers produce less offense than any other position, which is why Alex Avila's potent bat is so valuable.
C
.250
SS
.251
2B
.260
3B
.263
CF
.264
LF
.272
DH
.272
RF
.277
1B
.283
[th=""]Position[/th][th=""]TAv[/th]
Early success at bat bodes well for Avila's bank account, but it's even better news for the Tigers, who hold one of baseball's few golden tickets to offensive excellence at catcher. Check out the chart to the right, which gives a league-wide breakdown of TAv by position (excluding pitchers and pinch-hitters) since 2008, with .260 constituting league average.
Because backstops are a weak bunch of hitters on the whole, the few teams that employ something better than yet another catch-and-throw type enjoy a competitive advantage. Over the past few seasons, the Tigers have witnessed the potential of employing an offensive catcher firsthand; Mauer has led Minnesota Twins position players in WARP for three straight seasons, during which time the Twins have won two division titles and finished one win away from a third.
There was more to the Twins' slow start in 2011 -- which has reduced their playoff odds to roughly 5 percent, despite a hot June and July -- than Mauer's absence due to bilateral leg weakness, but having to make do with the likes of Drew Butera, Steve Holm and Rene Rivera stripped the Twins of a strength that had previously set them apart, transforming them into just another team fruitlessly looking for lumber behind the plate.
Mauer has regained some semblance of his stroke in July, though he has yet to hit for any power. Just six of his 39 hits have gone for extra bases, and he has yet to go yard. Regardless, the damage to the Twins' playoff hopes already is done, and Mauer's repeated lower-body ailments and subsequent flirtations with first base suggest that his days of giving the Twins a big bat at a position where such sights are scarce might soon be behind him.
Elsewhere in the AL Central, A.J. Pierzynski has given the White Sox a performance in line with that of a league-average catcher; the division's other young hope for an offense-first catcher is the Indians' Carlos Santana, whose commendable patience and pop have helped offset his low average in 2011.
The Tigers owe much of their success to bigger names like Cabrera and Justin Verlander, but a substantial portion of their better-than-even October odds can be traced to Avila's outsized impact at a position where hot hitting is the exception rather than the rule.
Ideal trades for AL contenders.
Spoiler [+]
BOSTON RED SOX
Primary needs: Right-handed-hitting right fielder and left-handed reliever.
Ideal:Hunter Pence of the Astros. He’s a complete player. He looks awkward in everything he does, but he does everything well on the field. He can hit, hit for power, play above-average defense, throw you out on the bases, show you some speed and is a good clubhouse guy. He really has been consistent in his career, averaging 25 home runs, 85 RBIs and 15 steals. He might hit six or seventh in the Red Sox lineup but would be their long-term solution in right field to replace J.D.Drew, who will be a free agent this winter. Reality: The Red Sox have to get healthy for a legitimate chance to get to the World Series. I highly doubt that GM Theo Epstein is prepared to trade half his farm system for Pence, which is the current asking price. He might instead make a minor deal with Oakland for Josh Willingham, Conor Jackson or David DeJesus. The Red Sox will explore every player available from Carlos Beltran to Pence to Ubaldo Jimenez. However, at the end of the day, I think Epstein will make minor moves, rather than a major splash.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Primary needs: Right-handed reliever to help set up Sergio Santos.
Ideal: Oakland's Grant Balfour. Ken Williams and Billy Beane have consummated many deals together, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they do another one by the deadline. Put Balfour together with Jesse Crain, Matt Thornton, Chris Sale and Santos, and it’s pretty formidable bullpen.
Reality: Ken Williams is always active at the deadline, and this trade market is flooded with available relief pitchers. He’ll get one of the high-profile bullpen arms on the market.
CLEVELAND INDIANS
Primary needs: Right-handed-hitting corner outfielder who can hit in the middle of the lineup.
Ideal: Pence and Carlos Beltran are the two best available outfielders on the market, but Cleveland's not going to pay the price in terms of prospects to get either one.
Reality: Willingham or Ryan Ludwick of the San Diego Padres are the two most realistic acquisitions. Both players would give them an RBI bat and also protect them in case Grady Sizemore can’t get healthy. Willingham is a below-average defender and has some health questions regarding his back and Achilles that need to be cleared up before a deal is closed. Ludwick can hit some home runs, but he really didn’t help the Padres as much as expected when they traded for him at the same time last year. The price should be reasonable for either one.
Reality: The Tigers aren’t getting Kuroda because he has a no-trade clause and doesn’t want to pitch for them. The Cubs don’t want to trade Ryan Dempster, and the Astros want blue-chip pitching prospect Jacob Turner in a Wandy Rodriguez trade. Jason Marquis or Aaron Harang are more realistic.
LOS ANGELES ANGELS
Primary needs: Middle-of-the-order left-handed hitter, a third baseman with power who can drive runs in and a reliever.
Ideal:Aramis Ramirez of the Cubs. He would give the Angels another middle-of-the-order bat (albeit a right-handed one) who can drive in runs and give the club All-Star-level production at third base. The problem is that Ramirez has a full no-trade clause, and he’s not ready to be traded. I still think he could be convinced to accept a deal by Angels veterans such as Vernon Wells and Torii Hunter. What's interesting to note is that Ramirez has a $16.5 million option that automatically vests if he's traded. However, he has said he would want to waive that clause should he accept a trade in order to become a free agent this winter. Considering his recent hot streak, it's not hard to see why he'd want to hit the open market as soon as possible.
Reality: General manager Tony Reagins pulled the trigger last year on the Dan Haren deal, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he does another major deal before this year's deadline. The market is thin for what he’s seeking, so the Angels could end up with a reliever instead. Possibilities include Jon Rauch, Matt Guerrier, Jason Isringhausen, Chad Qualls, Tyler Clippard and Rafael Betancourt.
MINNESOTA TWINS
Primary needs: Top-of-the-rotation starter and reliever.
Ideal: Jimenez. They’ve lacked a No. 1 starter since trading Johan Santana, and the lack of a true ace is a big reason the Twins have been swept in the first round of the playoffs the past two Octobers.
Reality: Their payroll is over $100 million, and they’re not prepared to spend much more. However, if they can get an inexpensive reliever, they might make a minor deal, but don’t look for them to trade a good prospect like they did last year when they sent Wilson Ramos to the Nationals for Matt Capps.
NEW YORK YANKEES
Primary needs: Left-handed reliever and backup third baseman.
Ideal:Sean Marshall would be the perfect fit. Can you imagine having Marshall and Logan from the left side and David Robertson, Rafael Soriano and Mariano Rivera to finish games? Marshall also is very familiar with Yankees pitching coach Larry Rothschild, who used to work for the Cubs. Perfect fit for the Yankees.
Reality: The Cubs aren’t trading Marshall, according to their GM Jim Hendry. The Yankees might take a chance on Randy Choate as a situational sixth-inning lefty if they can get him for practically nothing. He pitched well in the AL East last year for the Rays and might bounce back if the Yankees get him. Don’t look for Brian Cashman to trade prospects Jesus Montero, Manny Banuelos or Dellin Betances at this deadline. He has kicked the tires on Jimenez, Rodriguez and Pence, but I doubt Cashman makes a blockbuster at this deadline.
TAMPA BAY RAYS
Primary needs: Middle-of-the-order bat and bullpen help if they’re buying, long-term solution at catcher if they’re selling.
Ideal: Reds prospects Devin Mesoraco and Yonder Alonso would be a great haul for James Shields. This deal would give the Rays their long-term solutions at catcher and first base and give the Reds a top-of-the-rotation starter to go with Johnny Cueto. Shields has reasonable club options for the next three seasons, so he would not be a short-term rental, which is why the price would be so steep. If the Rays were willing to substitute catching prospect Yasmani Grandal for Mesoraco in this trade, the Reds would have to consider it. The Rays could replace Shields in the rotation with Matt Moore, one of baseball’s best pitching prospects.
Reality: Andrew Friedman has never been a trade-deadline GM. The Rays are on the borderline of being a buyer or seller and still could go either way. A deal of B.J. Upton to the Nationals or Rockies is a possibility, which would open the doors for Desmond Jennings and Brandon Guyer.
Reality: They’re not going to trade prospects Martin Perez or Jurickson Profar, and they shouldn’t. Therefore, the rest of the farm system is in play. GM Jon Daniels traded for Cliff Lee at last year’s trade deadline, and I expect him to make another splash this year. My gut says he’s getting either Bell or Adams from the Padres.
Rumors.
Spoiler [+]
http://[h3]Sizemore and the trade deadline[/h3]
11:00AM ET
UPDATE: In addition to the problems with his knee, Sizemore had sports hernia surgery and will be out four to six weeks, the Indians announced Thursday. Even before the latest injury news to Sizemore, the Plain Dealer reports the Tribe has been pursuing an outfield bat such as Ryan Ludwick, Jeff Francoeur, Josh Willingham or Coco Crisp.
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Grady Sizemore's latest trip to the disabled list will not accelerate the Cleveland Indians' pursuit of a deal to improve their offense, reports Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer.
GM Chris Antonetti has been looking for a right-handed hitting outfielder and a starting pitcher, and those needs haven't changed. "We continue to explore ways to improve the team," Antonetti tells Hoynes. "We're exploring all means possible."
Don't look for the Tribe to mortgage the future on any deal. Hoynes said there is no way an up-and-coming player such as Jason Kipnis and Lonnie Chisenhall will be traded for a free-agent rental.
Sizemore was sent back to Cleveland to have tests done on his knee before making any estimates about how much time he will miss. Manager Manny Acta said Ezequiel Carrera will see the majority of playing time in center field in place of Sizemore.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Bourn a fit in Atlanta?[/h3]
10:49AM ET
[h5]Houston Astros [/h5]
Whenever a general manager says a deal isn't about the money, it almost always is. So give the Houston Astros credit for admitting that the expected franchise overhaul has the bottom line in mind.
"Certainly, all players are going to be viewed not only in the context of what they bring to the table from a performance standpoint but also the economics," GM Ed Wade concedes to Zachary Levine of the Houston Chronicle.
Levine analyzes the Astros' plans as the deadline approaches and says every name is on the table with the exception of Carlos Lee, and that is only because his contract is too burdensome.
The incoming ownership group headed by Jim Crane wants to build from the farm system up, which will promt Wade to entertain offers for Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn. The Astros could take a big step toward clearing payroll for the new ownership regime by trading Brett Myers and Wandy Rodriguez.
ESPN.com's Jim Bowden suggests Bourn could be an ideal fit for at least one NL team:
"Houston?s Michael Bourn would give the Braves a legitimate top-of-the-order game-changer who led the NL in steals the last two years and is leading the league again this year. He has a .350 OBP and can run the ball down in center field with phenomenal range. The Braves could offer the Astros left-handed starter Mike Minor, outfielder Jordan Schafer and pitching prospect J.J. Hoover in a blockbuster. The Astros need to build for the future, and the chance to get two pitching prospects and a good defensive center fielder with a strong arm would give them a big boost."
http://[h3]SFO balks at top prospect for Beltran[/h3]
10:21AM ET
[h5]San Francisco Giants [/h5]
The San Francisco Giants so far have been unable to complete a deal to add an impact bat. (Sorry, Jeff Keppinger from the Astros doesn't count).
The big fish in the pond remains Carlos Beltran, and the Giants openly flirted with the Mets outfielder when the teams played a series by the bay just before the All-Star break.
The Giants are still in pursuit, and a report in Friday's New York Daily News says San Francisco is willing to assume most or all of the $6 million left on Beltran's deal. The roadblock is the Giants' unwillingness to part with a high-end prospect in exchange for a two-month rental.
A report in the New York Post earlier this month listed pitcher Zach Wheeler, the sixth overall pick in the 2009 draft, as being part of the discussion. The Mets would seemingly make that deal in a heartbeat, but Giants GM Brian Sabean may think otherwise.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Shields wants to stay in Tampa[/h3]
9:58AM ET
We mentioned earlier this week how the Tampa Bay Rays, because of their limited financial resources, don't fall into a neat category as the trade deadline approaches.
The name of James Shields continues to pop up, and the righthander again demonstrated his value Thursday night when he bested the Yankees' CC Sabathia in a pitcher's duel at Tropicana Field.
The Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals have been mentioned as suitors, but Shields tells Marc Topkin of the St. Pete Times he has no interest in leaving Florida's Gulf Coast. "I love this town. I want to be here. And I think we have a good team," Shields said.
What would it take to land Shields? ESPN.com's Jim Bowden gives his suggestion on what the Reds could offer:
"Reds prospects Devin Mesoraco and Yonder Alonso would be a great haul for Shields. This deal would give the Rays their long-term solutions at catcher and first base and give the Reds a top-of-the-rotation starter to go with Johnny Cueto. Shields has reasonable club options for the next three seasons, so he would not be a short-term rental, which is why the price would be so steep. If the Rays were willing to substitute catching prospect Yasmani Grandal for Mesoraco in this trade, the Reds would have to consider it. The Rays could replace Shields in the rotation with Matt Moore, one of baseball?s best pitching prospects."
Ian Stewart has started all but one game at third base for the Rockies since the 4th of July weekend, in part to evaluate him and also to showcase him for interested parties.
Stewart has done little to generate any buzz, reports Jim Armstrong of the Denver Post. Stewart, who is making $2.29 million this season, struck out three times Thursday, dropping his average to .143 with one RBI in 91 at-bats. Worst of all, he is 0-for-18 with runners in scoring position.
At this stage, Stewart could be in danger of being released.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Drew injury won't alter plans in ARI[/h3]
9:17AM ET
UPDATE: Even with Drew lost for the season, general manager Kevin Towers says the Diamondbacks' priority is to seek pitching help instead of adding an infielder.
Veteran Cody Ransom was recalled Thursday from Triple-A Reno to replace Drew's spot on the roster.
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Keeping pace in the National League West got more difficult for the Arizona Diamondbacks after shortstop Stephen Drew fractured his right ankle sliding into home plate in Wednesday's loss to the Brewers.
Manager Kirk Gibson confirmed Drew is lost for the season, but didn't have any immediate answer on Drew's replacement. The most likely candidate is veteran Willie Bloomquist, while another possibility is the versatile Geoff Blum, who recently made his season debut following knee surgery.
The D-backs already are in the market for a reliever and a starting pitcher, and now must decide if they want to divert some of their resources for a shortstop. GM Kevin Towers might put in a call to his old club in San Diego to check in on the availability of Jason Bartlett. In his Big Board, ESPN Insider's Jim Bowden says the Padres would love to get out of the final year of Bartlett's contract that pays $5.5 million in 2012.
"The Diamondbacks may just decide to go with Bloomquist at shortstop, because external solutions like the Astros' Clint Barmes and the Dodgers' Jamey Carroll may be too expensive for a team that is now four-and-a-half games behind the Giants."
UPDATE:MLB.com's Joe Frisaro says Nunez is drawing interest from several teams. The Tigers are looking for pitching help and the Fish are believed to be eyeing the recently demoted Brandon Inge. Could Nunez and Inge be the components of a deal?
ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick reported earlier this week that the Phillies, who have had plenty of bullpen issues, have talked to the Marlins about Nunez.
If the Marlins decide to deal, manager Jack McKeon tells the Miami Herald says he would likely use Edward Mujica as his closer. Mujica has a sterling 34/5 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
UPDATE: With Lidge and Jose Contreras expected to be back at some point, that would eliminate the need for the Phillies to seek bullpen depth by the July 31 deadline, writes MLB.com's Todd Zolecki.
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UPDATE: Lidge pitched a scoreless inning Wednesday for Lakewood and hopes to return Friday when the Phillies open a long home stand against the Padres.
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UPDATE: It appears far from a foregone conclusion that Lidge returns as a closer once he's back, at least based on his performance and the pace if his rehab stint. He started his rehab on July 4 and here it is more than two weeks later and he's still out working off the rust. He's made seven appearances -- No. 8 coming in Lakewood Wednesday night and the veteran is set to be reevaluated Thursday.
The results of that evaluation could be instrumental in the club's decision to head out on the trade market. If Lidge appears good to go, perhaps the Phillies back off a bit and go for a seventh or eighth inning arm, if anything at all. If there are concerns going forward, the club may go harder after Heath Bell.
Lidge, who has yet to pitch this season due to rotator cuff issues, threw 28 pitches Thursday for Double-A Reading against Trenton, and allowed two runs. The erstwhile closer surrendered one hit and one walk, hit two batters, and threw three wild pitches.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Lohse expects to start Sunday[/h3]
8:36AM ET
After making a detour back to St. Louis to have his right medical finger examined, Cardinals righthander Kyle Lohse expects to make his next start Sunday in Pittsburgh.
Lohse first felt discomfort in the finger in his final start before the All-Star break, and inflammation resurfaced Tuesday while pitching against the Mets.
If Lohse needs to be skipped, manager Tony La Russa suggested that the Cardinals could find a replacement from the current roster. Derrick Goold of the Post Dispatch says the likely candidate in that scenario would be rookie Lance Lynn, who pitched Wednesday in relief.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Jocketty: Reds still buyers[/h3]
8:19AM ET
[h5]Cincinnati Reds [/h5]
Speculation regarding the Cincinnati Reds has had them straddling the fence between buyers and sellers. Just four games off the pace in the National League Central, the Reds aren't ready to toss in the towel.
GM Walt Jocketty tells John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer that the Reds are still buyers. Starting pitching is the top priority, and the Reds have been linked to Colorado's Ubaldo Jimenez and Tampa Bay's James Shields.
At this stage, no team appears to have the arsenal to run away with the division, so the Reds remain a viable contender, even if they are below .500.
Is a deal for Jimenez feasible? ESPN Insider's Jim Bowden gives his take on what it would take:
"The Reds could try to center a package around two former No. 1 picks in first baseman Yonder Alonso and catcher Yasmani Grandal. However, Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd will want a top-end starter in return, and the Reds don?t want to part with pitcher Homer Bailey, who still might develop into a top-of-the-rotation starter. If the Rockies can find another pitching prospect they like, this could be a good fit."
http://[h3]Will Mariners deal for a bat?[/h3]
8:00AM ET
[h5]Seattle Mariners [/h5]
The frustration of the Seattle Mariners' 12-game losing streak may have reached a boiling point. Following a 7-5 loss in Toronto Thursday, the clubhouse door was locked as manager Eric Wedge blasted his struggling team, telling them to toughen up.
The Mariners desperately need an offensive boost, and GM Jack Zduriencik must decide whether he is willing to part with closer Brandon League and/or starters Jason Vargas and Doug Fister.
Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times wrote Thursday that Chone Figgins is drawing some interest from the Reds, who are looking for a leadoff hitter.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Pence to Phils unlikely?[/h3]
7:42AM ET
UPDATE: Pence's name has been mentioned around Philadelphia for months, but MLB.com's Todd Zolecki says the chances of another blockbuster with the Phillies would seen small. The teams worked out a deal for Roy Oswalt last summer.
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Plenty of changes could be coming in Houston once Jim Crane is approved as the new owner, but it remains to be seen if that will include a deal for Hunter Pence.
In Thursday's blog, ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney says the odds of a deal for Pence may have picked up over the last few days. "Maybe Crane's group has sent word that it wants the most difficult payroll slashing to be done before it takes over, which is something done with a lot of companies," Olney writes.
With the Pirates in Houston lastweekend, there was talk that the Bucs could be interested in Pence, and the Astros outfielder did not seem opposed to the idea. But Pence is making $6.9 million this season and has two years of arbitration eligibility left, so that could be too hefty of a financial commitment for the Bucs.
That doesn't close the door teams such as the Red Sox, Phillies or Braves, all of whom are looking for a bat.
- Doug Mittler
[h5]Buster Olney[/h5]
Astros gauging the market for Pence?
"The Astros could handle this the way the Rockies have with Ubaldo Jimenez - ask for the sun and the moon and the stars in return, while knowing a trade is unlikely. But that's not the feeling other teams are getting right now; they are sensing that the Astros are ready to trade. We?ll see."
UPDATE: Beltran has told friends that he prefers to stay in the National League, reports David Lennon of Newsday.
Lennon adds that a key factor could be Beltran's aversion to being a DH, but that would not necessarily kill a deal to an American League club.
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UPDATE: Our Buster Olney tweets Thursday that even the Brewers have interest in Beltran, though it's unclear if they would be able to put together a package of talent the Mets would find attractive ater trading away most of thert top talents in other deals the past few seasons. Perhaps a third team could get involved?
The Rangers have interest, too, tweets Ken Rosenthal, but they have their sights set on pitching first and foremost.
...
UPDATE: The Mets would not be opposed to deal Beltran within the NL East to Philadelphia or Atlanta if those teams offered the most in return, reports Peter Botte in Thursday's NY Daily News.
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UPDATE: The Red Sox have made their interest in Beltran known to the Mets, but so far are unwilling to part with the type of top-tier prospects New York GM Sandy Alderson is seeking in return, reports Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com
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UPDATE: Ken Rosenthal reported Tuesday that the Red Sox and Phillies are the most aggressive clubs in trade talks for Beltran.
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UPDATE: With Beltran's salary a possible issue for potential trade suitors, ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney wrote earlier this week that the Mets are willing to pick up the money in order to get a better return. Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com adds Tuesday that the Mets are willing to cover Beltran's remaining salary because they are demanding top-notch young talent in return.
Not necessarily, according to GM Sandy Alderson, who insisted Wednesday the deal for K-Rod is not the start of a fire sale. Alderson, of course, could be telling suitors that Beltran will not come cheaply.
The speculation regarding Beltran will only escalate and the outfielder has fanned the flames with his candid comments about trade partners. The outfielder, for example, said it would be a no-brainer to OK a deal to the Red Sox should he be asked to do so.
Beltran is drawing "real interest" from as many as seven clubs, tweets Olney. Olney added later Wednesday that the Yankees are not one of those clubs. Olney says a wild card in the Beltran Sweepstakes could be the Detroit Tigers, who have a lot at stake with manager Jim Leyland in the final year of his contract.
The Giants remain a primary target and Kevin Kernan of the New York Post says that Beltran may soon be headed to San Francisco.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Cubs would take hit to deal Soriano[/h3]
7:14AM ET
The Chicago Cubs are dragging along a proverbial ball and chain as the deadline approaches. It is the no-trade clauses that accompany the contracts of Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Zambrano, deals that effectively curtail any major rebuilding plans.
While Ramirez so far has expressed a desire to stay put, Soriano may now be willing to escape Chicago's North Side. Soriano told Gordon Wittenmyer of the Sun-Times earlier this week he won't stand in the way if the Cubs can send him to the contender.
The Cubs may now be willing to eat enough of the $61 million left on his contract to make it work. Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago.com reported Thursday night that the Cubs would be willing to "absorb a high percentage" of Soriano's contract if the right trade offer came along.
One wild rumor had the Yankees expressing interest in Soriano, who began his career in the Bronx, but that one seems remote at best.
Brandon Inge has struggled this season and Wednesday sent to Triple-A -- he accepted the assignment -- but the veteran may be back in the big leagues sooner than later. It may be in a teal uniform, but it's still the big leagues.
Inge could split time with lefty-hitting Greg Dobbs and give the Fish another option to bridge the gap to prospect Matt Dominguez, who could be ready in a year's time.
Inge became expendable due to the acquisition of Wilson Betemit from Kansas City.
- Jason A. Churchill
http://[h3]Impact of Kipnis call-up[/h3]
6:51AM ET
[h5]Cleveland Indians [/h5]
UPDATE: Bastian later writes it is unclear whether Kipnis will be used at second base, where Orlando Cabrera resides, or be tried in the outfield, where the Tribe has injury woes.
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UPDATE: Kipnis was called up Thursday and despite having outfield experience is expected to take over at second base, tweets Jordan Bastian of MLB.com.
Kipnis should provide a consistent upgrade for the Tribe, who could still be in the market for outfield help, too.
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Four second basemen in Cleveland this season have hit just .246/.286/.335, the vast majority of that from veteran Orlando Cabrera. Those fortunes could turn around after the break, as the club's top remaining infield prospect appears to be ready for the show.
Jason Kipnis, who took a Julio Teheran fastball over the wall in right field to lead off Sunday's Futures Game, and heads back to Triple-A Columbus hitting .297 with a .380 on-base percentage and 11 long balls. His defensive transition from outfield to second base has gone well, and he could help the Tribe stay in the race in the American League Central.
"He was ready six weeks ago," one scout told me over the weekend. "That's a good looking, young infield and he's a big part of that." Kipnis could join youngsters Asdrubal Cabrera, Matt LaPorta and Lonnie Chisenhall as well as catcher Carlos Santana as stalwarts in Cleveland for years to come.
"Kipnis is an aggressive player who can do a little bit of everything offensively, and given the depth at second base this season, he's worth an immediate look in almost all formats, especially if you missed out on Dustin Ackley when he came up. When Kipnis does arrive, he'll likely play almost every day, like Chisenhall. One of the traits I've liked about Kipnis is that his numbers have gotten better with each promotion. His slugging and OPS marks have risen at each of his four minor league stops, and that's a good sign as he prepares to make the transition to the highest level."
• Clubs that have spoken to the Phillies report that when they ask about Domonic Brown, they're told: "That's not going to happen." And the Phillies have said their No. 1 pitching prospect, Jarred Cosart, is also all but untouchable. The Phillies have shown willingness to talk about their top hitting prospect, A-ball first baseman Jonathan Singleton, but only for an impact player they would control beyond this year. In other words, they won't include him in a package for Carlos Beltran or any other rent-a-player.
also went on to say Worley is off limits too which is good....would like to see a deal with Pence centering around Singleton.
• Clubs that have spoken to the Phillies report that when they ask about Domonic Brown, they're told: "That's not going to happen." And the Phillies have said their No. 1 pitching prospect, Jarred Cosart, is also all but untouchable. The Phillies have shown willingness to talk about their top hitting prospect, A-ball first baseman Jonathan Singleton, but only for an impact player they would control beyond this year. In other words, they won't include him in a package for Carlos Beltran or any other rent-a-player.
also went on to say Worley is off limits too which is good....would like to see a deal with Pence centering around Singleton.
At a time when the Mets want a star prospect for Carlos Beltran and the Astros are looking for an enormous package of young players for Hunter Pence, someone like Reed Johnson is the Chevy amid the luxury lot. He's pounded left-handed pitchers this year, posting an on-base percentage of .407 and an OPS of nearly 1.000. On top of that, Johnson is making just $900,000 in salary.
But while that sounds nice, and many teams have called the Cubs about Johnson's availability, nobody would probably give up anything decent for a 34-year-old outfielder who will be eligible for free agency this fall. "You might get an organizational guy," said one highly ranked executive, mentioning the kind of minor leaguer who is needed by every team to help stabilize a team of young players. "Or maybe you'd get a guy who would be in the big leagues very briefly. Does that really help you?"
The Dodgers may well keep Jamey Carroll for the same reason -- they wouldn't get much in return, given his RBI production -- and the Royals are well aware that while other teams like Melky Cabrera and Jeff Francoeur, neither is going to generate a solid Grade B prospect in return. Oakland has a bunch of relievers who could be had in trades, including Michael Wuertz. "But they're just not going to give them away," said one high-ranking executive.
There is interest in Rafael Furcal, who got a big hit for the Dodgers on Saturday. But again, it's unclear what Los Angeles could get in return beyond some salary relief.
• The Mets continue to talk with the Giants and Phillies about Beltran, and they want a top pitching prospect from the Braves. Atlanta certainly has them, including Mike Minor, Julio Teheran, Arodys Vizcaino and Randall Delgado, who are all considered high-end prospects by other teams.
I asked a rival evaluator -- whose team is not involved in the Beltran trade talks, and isn't in the same division as the Braves -- to rank the four prospects in his eyes. His feeling:
1. Teheran
2. Vizcaino
3. Minor
4. Delgado
"To me," the evaluator said, "you could flip-flop the top two" -- Teheran and Vizcaino -- "or the bottom two." Minor and Delgado, the evaluator said, are "third-starter type of guys."
I asked the evaluator if he thought that the price tag of one of those four pitchers was too high for a two-month rental, and he paused. "Yes, probably," he said. "I don't know what [the Braves'] other options are, but I can't see Frank [Wren] trading one of them."
The Braves could try to offer the Mets a package of less-touted prospects. But that's not the Mets' intention: They believe that they'll get a good prospect, eventually, as they walk down the line in trade talks with all the interested teams.
• The Indians are among the teams which have talked with the Rays about B.J. Upton, sources say, and Upton is trying to not let the trade rumors affect him, Marc Topkin writes. The guess here is that he will be dealt.
[h3]Other trade buzz[/h3]
1. Hiroki Kuroda has not ruled any team out in his discussions with the Dodgers related to his no-trade clause, and so the Dodgers will take the offers to him on a case-by-case basis, if they have something serious arranged. The Red Sox are one of those teams for which Kuroda would be a nice fit, especially considering the reality that Boston doesn't know when Clay Buchholz will be coming back. To back up what old friend Peter Gammons has reported, the Red Sox and Oakland have talked about Rich Harden; in fact, the recent round of talk was the second time the two sides have discussed Harden, with the first time coming in early July.
To be clear, Oakland and the Red Sox are not close to a deal for the right-hander, but he would make sense in this regard: He's capable of four weeks or six weeks of high-ceiling performance, between his injuries. Sources say that Boston's current priority in the trade market is pitching, and that the notion of trading for Beltran is a long shot.
2. The Yankees have Rafael Soriano coming back and Ivan Nova on layaway in the minors, so they don't feel an urgency to make a deal. They have had conversations with teams about relievers, including the Padres' Mike Adams, but the gap between what the Padres asked for and what the Yankees were willing to give up was enormous; a Yankees deal for Adams is highly unlikely.
But don't be surprised if the Yankees do what they did in the last days before last year's deadline: As teams change course with the deadline looming and try to dump money, don't be surprised to see the Yankees jump in and gobble up depth, as they did with the acquisitions of Lance Berkman, Kerry Wood and Austin Kearns. But the Yankees will wait for the market to come to them.
For example (and this is total speculation): I wonder if they would take the salary of Carlos Pena if they felt he would be an upgrade over Jorge Posada at DH. Pena's on-base percentage is 30 points higher, he's hit more homers than anyone other than Jose Bautista since the end of April and he and Mark Teixeira could split time at first base; both are excellent defensively.
4. If the Cardinals don't make a move, Tony La Russa will be OK with that. The full expectation within the industry is that they will add a reliever, at least. And the Colby Rasmus situation festers: La Russa started Jon Jay in center field, again.
5. There are indications that the Twins and Orioles may have something brewing, writes Jeff Zrebiec.
It will be extremely difficult for the Orioles to get equal value for Koji Uehara in this market glutted by right-handed relievers, and given his contract option for $4 million and Baltimore's need for pitching, it makes a lot of sense for them to keep him. It would be almost impossible for the Orioles to sign a reliever on a one-year deal this winter coming off a performance like the one Uehara is generating this summer.
7. The Mets will be looking for top prospects, writes Andy Martino.
8. The Phillies have a great trade deadline track record, writes Joel Sherman.
9. It seems more and more likely that the Rays are going to trade Upton, and the Nationals are interested, Adam Kilgore writes.
10. The Angels don't appear to be in position to get much done before the deadline, writes Kevin Baxter.
11. Sources say the Marlins are currently in a holding pattern -- not really looking to move players, despite the many calls they've gotten on relievers like Leo Nunez and Randy Choate, and not really looking to add. Florida's situation is complicated by the fact that the team wants to win as many games as possible -- even if the team is not in serious contention for a playoff spot -- before moving into its new ballpark next spring.
13. Going for it could be too expensive for the Reds, writes Paul Daugherty.
14. If the Cubs hung on to Carlos Pena, it would say a lot about their plans, writes Gordon Wittenmyer.
15. The Twins' concern over Kyle Gibson could impact trades.
16. The Indians' success at the deadline has been mixed, writes Dennis Manoloff.
Reds likely to go on a run.
Spoiler [+]
CINCINNATI -- As manager Dusty Baker chatted in his office a few hours before "Sunday Night Baseball," the Reds were 39 days from the last time they had registered back-to-back wins. And Baker talked about waiting for his team to get on the kind of roll that hasn't happened yet this year -- a roll that seems inevitable, given the fact that Cincinnati has essentially the same core of young players that won the NL Central last year.
Getty ImagesDrew Stubbs is just one of the many talents on the Reds roster. Will they put it back together?
Joey Votto, the reigning NL MVP, is still here, and so is Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce and the strong catching duo of Ryan Hanigan and Ramon Hernandez. Aroldis Chapman has been throwing strikes, and Dontrelle Willis looks completely different than he did with the Tigers, slimmed down and joyful again. The Reds are hopeful that Edinson Volquez has gotten angry in a good way in the aftermath of his demotion to the minors, and will soon come back refocused; no one has ever doubted his ability.
And presumably, the Reds will add help before the trade deadline, like other teams. While Baker talked, his phone rang: It was Cincinnati GM Walt Jocketty, who had just finished watching the ceremonies in Cooperstown. Baker answered and told Jocketty that he'd call him back, after the reporters left the room, and maybe their subsequent conversation was about a starting pitcher or a reliever or the kind of middle-of-the order hitter they've sought.
But if the Reds are going to find a solution, a big part of it will inevitably be Drew Stubbs. Somebody posed an interesting question on Twitter the other day: Of all the players in Major League Baseball, who would be the best decathletes? In other words, who would be the guy who could best run, jump, throw through all those events? And the first two names that jumped to mind, for me, were Stubbs and Jacoby Ellsbury.
Stubbs is one because he's a package of remarkable physical talent. On Saturday, he made a ridiculous throw home, and in the first inning Sunday, he reached after Martin Prado fumbled his grounder and Stubbs outran the throw to first. Then in the bottom of the ninth inning, Stubbs had the strength to club the very first pitch over the right field wall -- to the opposite field -- for a game-ending home run.
On the walk back to the hotel after the game, Tim Kurkjian mentioned that Stubbs and he had once had a conversation about how Stubbs had run hurdles as a teenager.
The Reds, by the way, now have won back to back games for the first time since mid-June, and despite all of their problems and frustrations and weaknesses, Cincinnati is just three games out of first place. The NL Central is wide open.
Barry Larkinhad some fun.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• The Mariners' losing streak is getting pretty ugly, at 15 games, and now Seattle will be playing in Yankee Stadium this week. The feeling among the Mariners' coaches, and for catcher Miguel Olivo, was that Michael Pineda was tipping his pitches. But he may be hitting the wall, too: In his first 15 starts, he was 7-4 with a 2.45 ERA, a .199 opponents batting average. He'd allowed just .7 home runs per 9 IP. In his last five starts, he's 1-3 with a 7.71 ERA, a .248 average against and 1.6 HR/9.
Eric Wedge shaved his facial hair in an effort to change his luck.
• The Hall of Fame may reduce the wait for induction to three years, writes Kevin Kernan. This would be a very, very, very smart way for the Hall to bridge the gap as the PED guys begin to saturate the list of eligible candidates.
[h3]Trade stuff[/h3] 1.Colby Rasmus was offered to the White Sox. Edwin Jackson wasn't surprised when he heard about the report that he might be in the middle of the Cardinals-Chicago talks.
3. Roy Halladay's dominance continued. From ESPN Stats & Information, how Halladay won:
• Halladay labored through the first five innings, throwing 91 pitches while allowing eight baserunners and three runs (two earned). In his last three innings, Halladay threw just 25 pitches and didn't allow a baserunner.
• In his last three innings, Halladay was able to get ahead of hitters more effectively. He threw 64 percent first-pitch strikes through the first five innings but increased that to 78 percent from the sixth on. Halladay doubled his cutter use and decreased his two-seam fastball and changeup use on the first pitch over the last three innings, keeping Padres hitters off balance.
• Eleven of the first 25 batters he faced would swing at the first pitch -- getting two hits -- while only one of the final nine batters he faced would swing at pitch one.
• The Phillies are now 39-15 in games that Roy Halladay has started.
FROM ELIAS: The Phillies' .722 win percentage behind Halladay is tied for the best team win percentage in a pitcher's starts since 1900:
Roy Halladay (PHI) .722
Nick Maddox (PIT) .722
Russ Meyer (BKN) .718
Lefty Grove (PHA) .713
• In three career starts against the Brewers, Bumgarner has a 1.27 ERA and 18 strikeouts to just four walks in 21 1/3 innings. In each of those three starts, Bumgarner has attacked Brewers hitters, particularly righties, inside. On Sunday, 32 of his 81 pitches (39.5 pct) to righties were inside, his fifth-highest percentage this season and 12th in his 40 career regular season starts; his other two starts against the Brewers rank first and sixth. Righties were just 1 for 9 Sunday, including three strikeouts, in at-bats ending on an inside pitch.
• Bumgarner relied on his slider more often than usual Sunday, and wasn't afraid to come inside with it. He threw the pitch 39 percent of the time, his second highest in a start this season. Bumgarner threw more sliders than fastballs inside to righties, and hitters were 0 for 4 in at-bats ending in a slider inside.
6.John Buck came out of the bullpen to get a big hit. Emilio Bonifacio has been on a serious tear: From ESPN Stats & Info: Bonifacio has sparked the Marlins offense, as he leads the majors with 21 runs, a .489 on-base percentage, and 14 stolen bases in July. The Marlins are 13-8 in July, averaging 5.1 runs per game. Prior to this month, Bonifacio sported a .331 on-base percentage with only 8 stolen bases.
By the time a player reaches his peak, usually in his late 20s, you have a pretty good idea where his career is heading. While there are always exceptions, if a player hits 30 and doesn't look to be on any kind of a Hall of Fame trajectory, chances are he never will be. Today's honorees were no exception -- through their 27th birthdays, Bert Blyleven already had 136 wins and a 2.81 ERA to match, and Roberto Alomar already had nearly 1,500 hits, five Gold Gloves, and six All-Star appearances.
Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera and Albert Pujols are Hall of Famers. Their records aren't complete, but all of them will make the Hall of Fame, even if they retired tomorrow afternoon. For younger stars, their fates aren't as set.
So, what are the odds that the current generation of young stars makes the Hall? To get an idea of their chances, I used historical wins above replacement (WAR) from baseball-reference and made a simple model of likelihood based on WAR and for batters, position. While most voters don't explicitly use any kind of WAR measure, the things that WAR likes, especially over a long career, are the things voters like: hitting lots of homers, throwing lots of innings and getting lots of batters out. The top five Hall-eligible hitters by WAR are Babe Ruth, Ty Cobb, Willie Mays, Hank Aaron and Honus Wagner, and even the biggest stat skeptic won't find much to quibble with there.
Position does matter quite a bit. Second basemen, third basemen and center fielders, the positions in the "middle" of the defensive spectrum, generally require more WAR to get into the Hall than players at other positions.
In developing a model, I looked only at players who have gotten to the point at which they've been rejected by the BBWAA. It's too soon to know how voters will treat Barry Bonds or Roger Clemens, after all.
Using the ZiPS projection system, I then projected career WAR for every regular player age 27 this season or younger.
Here are the most likely candidates to be on a Hall of Fame track:
[h3]THE FRONT-RUNNERS (greater than 50 percent)[/h3]
The front-runners obviously have the easiest path to the Hall. Unless their careers take a very negative turn, they're solidly on a Hall trajectory.
Felix Hernandez is the biggest slam dunk, with an estimated 80 percent chance of getting his WAR into the automatic range, essentially the odds that his career isn't completely derailed by injury. All 22 eligible pitchers with 70 WAR are in the Hall, and Felix, with 27 WAR at age 25, is already more than a third of the way there.
Evan Longoria leads the position players, with a projected 69 WAR (just 25 this year, Longoria already has 21 WAR). Almost every player in that range is in the Hall. Longoria's hurt by being a third baseman (Ron Santo is one of the most notable Hall snubs in that range), but he looks to be one of the best third basemen of his generation.
Hanley Ramirez is at a hair under 30 WAR already, so even with a very poor season, he has enough "slack" that he still has a very good chance (62 percent).
[h3]THE FENCE (25-50 percent)[/h3]
Once we get into the 25-50 percent range, you're looking at players who have very good odds for the Hall early on, but could see their chances drop with a decline in play.
Dustin Pedroia is at 23 WAR at 27, but second basemen have a hard road in general; not only do they need more WAR to get into the Hall, but they have pretty steep aging curves that shorten their careers. Bobby Grich and Lou Whitaker are two of the biggest snubs, and ZiPS puts Pedroia in the range (58 WAR) where it's not a slam dunk. Pedroia is at 48 percent odds now (a lot can go wrong in 10 years), but playing for the Red Sox won't hurt him.
Troy Tulowitzki is right behind at 47 percent, mostly due to an up-and-down injury history. It's not included in this model as there isn't enough data, but I'm wondering if there may not be a "Reverse Coors" effect that may cause voters to overcorrect for playing at Coors Field, as seen by the Larry Walker disinterest.
Brian McCann, 27, is at 20 WAR and a definite contender -- his six All-Star Game appearances were well earned. Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder also make this category. Braun's a little behind the pace of Hall of Famers from an age standpoint and Fielder doesn't project to age very well.
Joey Votto (35 percent) is one of the players who's moved up here quickly in recent years. He didn't have his first Hall of Fame-type season until 25, but now he's making up for lost time.
Ryan Zimmerman's the last hitter in this group, with a 1-in-3 shot. Third basemen don't get much respect.
On the mound, Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum both make the cut, with 30 percent chances. ZiPS projects them both to finish with 200 wins, but pitchers are riskier as a matter of course. Zack Greinke closely follows at 29 percent.
[h3]THE LAGGERS (10-25 percent)[/h3]
These guys need some help. All of them are stars, but haven't been stars long enough -- or are young enough that they're on track -- to put up the mass totals needed to get into the Hall.
Justin Upton is a really good player and has had the benefit of grabbing a full-time job early, which will make it easier for him to accumulate good numbers long-term. All he really needs to move up is to finally break out and have that MVP-type season. Upton's right at the cusp of 25 percent, so just finishing the year the way he's played will move him into the next category.
Josh Johnson just misses the cut, with Hall of Fame talent, but a very poor injury history. Jon Lester and Cole Hamels also just miss the 25 percent mark -- both are projected to finish at just under 200 wins. Neither is likely to make a run at 300, but the difficulty of pitchers with fewer than 300 wins getting into the Hall is a modern development.
If Matt Kemp can show that 2011 isn't a fluke but a simple step up and stays in center, he could move up very quickly in the rankings. B.J. Upton and Nick Markakis still have the potential to amass impressive career numbers, but both have been disappointing recently. Some younger stars -- Jason Heyward, Buster Posey and Carlos Santana -- make this list, but they're still many years off, which hurts their standing.
Clayton Kershaw comes next here, at 14 WAR at age 23, but with a long road left. Bringing up the rear here (relatively speaking as these are all terrific players) are Ubaldo Jimenez and John Danks.
While we don't know who will be joining Blyleven and Alomar sometime in the Year 2030 or so, it's always fun to take a sneak peek. An important point to consider is how Hall of Fame standards change over time. For example, if you look at the 1930 season, 34 of the 128 full-time position players (26.5 percent) from that year are in the Hall, with only the Red Sox and White Sox without a Hall of Famer in the lineup. If that ratio applied to 2011, you'd expect to see an amazing 67 future Hall of Famers in regular lineups alone. The long-term effects of steroids on voting are yet to be determined and there's a very real chance that a logjam of players under suspicion end up staying on the ballot for years, resulting in a real voting mess.
Cleveland's new 2nd baseman.
Spoiler [+]
Chris Antonetti, the Cleveland Indians' VP and GM, announced the Indians have promoted top second-base prospect Jason Kipnis from Triple-A Columbus of the International League. Kipnis, 24, was originally drafted by the Padres in the fourth round of the 2008 June amateur draft but did not sign. He was the Pacific-10 player of the year at Arizona State the following year and was drafted the next season by the Indians in the second round of the 2009 draft, ultimately signing for $575,000. He was moved from the outfield to second base that fall during the Indians' Instructional League program.
Kipnis hits the ball hard to all fields with surprising power for his 5-foot-11 frame. With his strong forearms, hands and wrists, along with a strong mid-section, he projects to being a 15-18 home run hitter. The bat will be an immediate upgrade for the Tribe at second base.
Defensively, he is improving at second but still has more work to do. However, he does have good hands and his feet are quicker than his raw speed.
Kipnis, 24, was hitting .281/.363/.485 with 15 doubles, nine triples, 12 home runs, 54 RBIs and 12 stolen bases (in 13 attempts) at the time of his promotion.
BOTTOM LINE: While the Indians' starting lineup just improved, we’ll have to watch Kipnis' defense closely to see how far he’s progressed since he changed positions less than two years ago.
Understanding Greinke's struggle.
Spoiler [+]
Since making his Milwaukee Brewers debut May 4, Zack Greinke has not produced the results Milwaukee expected when it traded three big league-ready youngsters for him and Yuniesky Betancourt this past offseason. With a 4.84 ERA after Thursday's loss to Arizona, Greinke has allowed 56 runs in his 15 starts this year, compared to the 64 runs he allowed in 33 starts in his 2.14 ERA Cy Young campaign of 2009.
Loyal FanGraphs readers will be quick to point out his high .332 Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP), high Home Runs per Fly Ball ratio (16 percent), and his low 3.01 Fielder Independent Pitching (FIP) numbers, concluding that Greinke has been "unlucky" thus far in 2011. Greinke's 11.8 strikeouts per nine innings and 1.9 walks per nine are both the best figures of his career. Typically these numbers suggest an improvement in a pitcher's underlying skill level. However, Greinke's ERA has actually gone up with the move to the National League.
Since Greinke's strikeout and walk rates have improved, we see that his struggles have come when opposing batters make contact. The most obvious culprit is Milwaukee's questionable defense.
[h4]Not the best defense[/h4]
Milwaukee's infielders have not fared well in the Runs Saved metric in recent seasons.
The Brewers' infield consists of several of the league's worst fielders, with Casey McGehee at third base, Betancourt at shortstop, Rickie Weeks at second and Prince Fielder at first. Each of these infielders rates at or near the bottom of his position defensively. Manager Ron Roenicke has attempted to minimize the problem with aggressive shifting this season, but the unit still ranks just 17th out of 30 MLB infields according to Runs Saved.
Thanks to Carlos Gomez, who ranks second among all center fielders this year with 17 Runs Saved, the outfield defense rates far above their infield teammates. And as you would expect, the Brewers' two fly-ball pitchers (Randy Wolf and Shaun Marcum) have gotten much better defensive support than their ground-ball rotation mates. Wolf and Marcum have the lowest Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) numbers on the team, while Yovani Gallardo, Chris Narveson, and Greinke all have ERAs that exceed their FIPs. However, with Gomez hitting the disabled list with a broken collarbone, Marcum's and Wolf's "luck" may be about up.
Greinke has also seen fewer Good Fielding Plays and more Defensive Misplays than most pitchers this season. Good Fielding Plays, as recorded by Baseball Info Solutions (BIS) video scouts, are Web Gem-type plays in which the fielder did something to take away a hit or an extra base. Defensive Misplays are the opposite; when a fielder allows a batter to reach base or a runner to take an extra base because of an identifiable miscue, he's charged a Defensive Misplay. On Greinke's 235 balls in play, Milwaukee fielders have made 13 Good Fielding Plays and 21 Defensive Misplays and errors, both worse than the league average rates.
We also see that Greinke has allowed stronger contact on batted balls this season. First of all, he has allowed 13 home runs in 87 innings this year, compared to 18 all of last year and just 11 in 2009, both in over 220 innings.
Similarly, while Greinke has maintained a league-average ground-ball rate, he has yielded far more "fliners" than fly balls. Baseball Info Solutions' video scouts score "fliners" on balls between true line drives and fly balls. While fly balls in play are caught 95 percent of the time for outs, fliners go for hits half the time (51 percent), so Greinke's 7 percent fewer fly balls is significant. With a league-average distribution of balls in play, Greinke would have allowed about eight fewer hits this year.
[h4]Spreading things around[/h4]
Distribution of balls in play (2011)
Of course, the Brewers simply want to know what they can expect from the former Cy Young hurler during the pennant race. While Greinke's batted-ball distribution should balance out a bit, the poor Brewers defense behind him is likely to only get worse, unless general manager Doug Melvin can pick up a defensive-minded player or two for the left side of the infield. Greinke is off to a good start in turning things around, however, having lowered his ERA nearly a full run in his past three starts.
Rumors.
Spoiler [+]
http://[h3]Braves balk at prospect for Beltran[/h3]
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UPDATE: The Mets wants a top pitching prospect for Beltran, but may not get it from the Braves. Buster Olney tweets Monday morning that all signs point to Atlanta refusing to give up any one of their four core pitching prospects: Julio Teheran, Arodys Vizcaino, Mike Minor and Randall Delgado.
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Carlos Beltran packed his bags Sunday and headed from Miami to Cincinnati. His next stop after the Queen City is anyone's guess.
The Mets outfielder remains the center of the trade rumor universe, telling Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com he would not rule out accepting a trade to any of the five primary teams in pursuit of him. Using his no-trade clause as leverage, Beltran also expressed a strong preference to remain in the National League and in right field.
Beltran said he was uninterested in serving as a designated hitter even twice a week, and wanted to stay in the NL since he is not as familiar with American League pitching.
ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney reiterated Sunday that the Beltran talks are down to five teams -- Boston, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Atlanta and Texas ? adding that a deal with the Red Sox may be a long shot at this point.
Meanwhile, Beltran has told the Mets he only wants to be traded to one of seven National League contenders, reports ESPN.com's Jayson Stark. He The source, who was not present for the conversation, said Beltran doesn't want to approve a deal to Texas because the Rangers would want him to play center field and because he's not familiar with the AL West. Texas has been described by multiple sources to have ramped up its pursuit of Beltran over the weekend.
The source said he wasn't given the names of the seven NL teams to which Beltran would OK a deal. But only eight NL clubs started Sunday within four games of a playoff spot -- the Phillies, Braves, Giants, Cardinals, Brewers, Pirates, Reds and Diamondbacks. Of that group, six teams -- the Phillies, Braves, Giants, Pirates, Reds and Brewers -- have expressed interest in Beltran at various points this month.
One side note - if Beltran were to be traded to Atlanta, he would be back in Queens almost immediatelty. The Braves have two road series against the Mets next month, beginning the weekend of August 5-7.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Plenty of interest in Bourn, Pence [/h3]
10:59AM ET
[h5]Houston Astros [/h5]
UPDATE: Pence and Bourn have been attracting considerable attention but will come only at a stiff price, says MLB.com's Brian McTaggert.
McTaggert adds that Houston is more likely to deal pitchers Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers, despite their multi-year contracts. A Sunday report on FoxSports.com says Rodriguez reportedly has drawn interest from the Diamondbacks.
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Whenever a general manager says a deal isn't about the money, it almost always is. So give the Houston Astros credit for admitting that the expected franchise overhaul has the bottom line in mind.
"Certainly, all players are going to be viewed not only in the context of what they bring to the table from a performance standpoint but also the economics," GM Ed Wade concedes to Zachary Levine of the Houston Chronicle.
Levine analyzes the Astros' plans as the deadline approaches and says every name is on the table with the exception of Carlos Lee, and that is only because his contract is too burdensome.
The incoming ownership group headed by Jim Crane wants to build from the farm system up, which will promt Wade to entertain offers for Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn. The Astros could take a big step toward clearing payroll for the new ownership regime by trading Brett Myers and Wandy Rodriguez.
ESPN.com's Jim Bowden suggests Bourn could be an ideal fit for at least one NL team:
"Houston's Michael Bourn would give the Braves a legitimate top-of-the-order game-changer who led the NL in steals the last two years and is leading the league again this year. He has a .350 OBP and can run the ball down in center field with phenomenal range. The Braves could offer the Astros left-handed starter Mike Minor, outfielder Jordan Schafer and pitching prospect J.J. Hoover in a blockbuster. The Astros need to build for the future, and the chance to get two pitching prospects and a good defensive center fielder with a strong arm would give them a big boost."
UPDATE: Rob Biertempfel of the Tribune Review says the Pirates made a pitch for Pena, but were rebuffed.
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The Chicago Cubs would like to move left fielder Alfonso Soriano, and are willing to eat some salary in order to do it. They could push the envelope and ask third baseman Aramis Ramirez to waive his no-trade clause, despite Ramirez's agent Paul Kinzer reiterating, seemingly on a weekly basis, that Ramirez wants no part of leaving Chicago. The Cubs, however, can deal first baseman Carlos Pena wthout his permission, and he hasn't a bad contract weighing down his value.
The Cubs, however, could see Pena as a part of their future, writes Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. That sentiment isn't perfect, however, as Pena is a free agent at season's end, is having a better season this year than last and could command a multi-year contract worth more than the $10 million he's making this season.
And by trading Pena now, the Cubs don't eliminate themselves from contending for his services over the winter. Money talks, and the number isn't likely to change much whether they trade Pena or keep him.
http://[h3]Rockies looking to sell?[/h3]
10:12AM ET
[h5]Colorado Rockies [/h5]
The Colorado Rockies' deficit in both the NL West and the wild card has reached double digits, so even another patented late-season surge, similar to what we saw in 2007 and 2009, may not be enough.
Reality may have set and the departure of some spare parts may be on the way. ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney writes in Monday's blog that the expectation among some rival evaluators is that Rafael Betancourt, Ty Wigginton and Jason Giambi could all change addresses this week.
Giambi has has performed well enough this season to draw trade interest, FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal tweeted last week.Rosenthal notes that Giambi has indicated he wants to stay in Colorado and that the club will consult the veteran before making any decision.
UPDATE: Strauss has an updated version of his story in Monday's Post Dispatch, adding that the Cardinals' negotiations with White Sox general manager Kenny Williams have "accelerated in recent days," with the Sox able to make available Edwin Jackson or Matt Thornton.
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UPDATE: Joe Strauss of the Post-Dispatch writes Sunday that the Cardinals have had discussions with the Chicago White Sox about Rasmus, with names such as Edwin Jackson and Matt Thornton mentioned as possible bait. The White Sox may have trouble putting together enough young talent to get a deal done, however, but stay tuned, GM Kenny Williams can be creative.
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UPDATE: The Cardinals have repeatedly said they are not trading Rasmus but ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney reports via Twitter that some rival executives believe GM John Mozeliak still would move Rasmus in the right deal.
This could be a move made over the winter, but there seems to be enough talk this month that it wouldn't be a surprise if Rasmus were dealt.
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UPDATE: Rasmus isn't being shopped by the Cardinals, tweets SI.com's Jon Heyman, though the Rays, Red Sox and other clubs have contacted GM John Mozeliak to inquire about the centerfielder. Mozeliak called a trade of Rasmus "highly unlikely."
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UPDATE: In Thursday's blog, ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney wonders how word of the Cardinals' willingness to trade Rasmus leaked out. "I think the answer would help define the depth of unhappiness with Rasmus," Olney writes.
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UPDATE: Jim Bowden poured some cold water on the Rasmus talk, tweeting Tuesday that the Cardinals "made it very clear" to him that there is no truth to rumors that they are considering moving the outfielder.
Could that have changed now that the Brewers have upped the ante in the NL Central with the deal for Francisco Rodriguez?
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The St. Louis Cardinals have managed to stay afloat in the National League Central despite a rash of injuries. A team that has used the disabled list 15 times this season is willing to deal, and the trade bait might include the enigmatic Colby Rasmus, reports Joe Strauss of the Post-Dispatch.
Over the next three weeks the Cardinals hope to move aggressively to acquire a pitcher to bolster the back end of its starting rotation or to give the bullpen a jolt. The main bargaining chip could be the previously unavailable Rasmus, who is closing in on arbitration and has shown erratic development as a center fielder. But even with his stock down slightly, Rasmus (.264 BA) could still bring back solid value.
Strauss hears that GM John Mozeliak be willing to call on long-standing interest from the pitching-rich Tampa Bay Rays, who could use another bat.
A trade of Rasmus could indicate the Cardinals are willing to hand the center field job over to Jon Jay, at least temporarily.
ESPN Insider's Jason A. Churchill suggests that Rasmus could be an ideal buy-low trade candidate should the Cardinals choose to shop his services.
"A change of scenery might work out well for him, and there certainly would be no shortage of interested parties should the Cards choose to field offers. Rasmus will not turn 25 until next month and will hit arbitration for the first time after this season. The acquiring club would gain three years of club control. Additionally, if they made a deal this month, they also would net an extra couple months. As a result of his contract status, Rasmus' market wouldn't likely be limited to contending clubs, which increases his value to GM John Mozeliak. There is still a chance Rasmus blossoms into a star, placing him among the very best buy-low candidates."
http://[h3]Sticker shock for Pirates GM?[/h3]
9:47AM ET
[h5]Pittsburgh Pirates [/h5]
UPDATE: Pirates GM Neal Huntington is looking to buy and not sell, but the price so far is too high. "I think the fact that we're in a pennant race, I think the fact that we're on pace to break an 18-year streak, the fans are coming out in droves ... if I were in [other teams'] shoes, I would be trying to leverage that as best I could," Huntington says in Monday's Post-Gazette.
It could come down to whether Huntington is willing to roll the dice on winning this season, just as the Brewers have done with the recent deal for Francisco Rodriguez.
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UPDATE: The Pirates are also out shopping for relief help, tweets Jon Morosi of FOXSports.com. Morosi's tweet included the names of potential targets such as Koji Uehara, Octavio Dotel and Jason Frasor, but the Bucs could also eye Orioles righty Jim Johnson and Mariners closer Brandon League.
UPDATE: The Pirates have had internal discussions about chasing A's outfielder David DeJesus, tweets Olney, more evidence that the Bucs are in the market for an outfielder.
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UPDATE: Rob Biertempfel reports via Twitter Wednesday that the Pirates have been discussing a deal with the A's that would bring left-hander Craig Breslow and outfielder Josh Willingham to Pittsburgh.
The Pirates could use Willingham in left in place of the injured Jose Tabata and then move one of the two left fielders to right and deal Garrett Jones once Tabata is healthy. It's possible that Jones is part of such a trade with Oakland.
The first-place Pirates are the talk of baseball, but does GM Neal Huntington need to make a major move to continue what has become a magical summer in Western Pennsylvania?
A posting on the ESPN Stats & Info blog says the numbers point to the Pirates having a hard time continuing their success. The Pirates' starters, for example, entered Tuesday with the second-largest negative differential between ERA and xFIP in all of baseball, making it likely the rotation will regress in the second half.
Dejan Kovakevic of the Tribune Review writes that the Pirates owe it to their fans to go for the big splash and pursue someone like Hunter Pence or Carlos Beltran. This is a real opportunity for the Pirates to stay relevant in the competitve Pittsburgh sports landscape, so why not do for it? MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch said earlier this week the Pirates are looking for a right-handed bat and a reliever and are going to "kick the tires" on a deal for Beltran. - Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Wang return could prompt deal[/h3]
9:33AM ET
By that time, the Nationals may have made room in their rotation by trading a veteran starter, Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post reported last week. The 31-year-old Wang, a two-time 19-game winner, has been recovering from a major shoulder surgery for two years and last pitched in the majors for the Yankees in 2009.
The Nats might be willing to shop free-agent-to-be http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4409/jason-marquisJason Marquis, who could be an attractive two-month rental to a team willing to assume the remainder of his $7.5 million salary for this season. There also is Livan Hernandez, who coud be a valuable innings-eater for a postseason contender.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]MIN, DET, PIT in Uehara chase[/h3]
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UPDATE: The Baltimore Sun's Jeff Zrebiec writes Monday there is "growing speculation" that Uehara will be moved since the reliever and starter Jeremy Guthrie are the Orioles' only true bargaining chips.
Zrebiec says the Twins, Rangers, Pirates and Twins all have expressed interest in Uehara.
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UPDATE: The Twins have interest in Uehara, reports Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun. Uehara could be used in multiple roles in Minnesota if they acquire the right-hander, including as the closer.
The Orioles are believed to be looking for major-league ready starting pitching. Could Kevin Slowey be a possibility?
Uehara throws a lot of strikes and despite not possessing elite closer stuff has proven a valuable late-inning option in a tough division with numerous impact bats. Along with the Pirates, clubs such as the New York Yankees, Detroit Tigers, St. Louis Cardinals and Arizona Diamondbacks appear to be potential fits, and he might be the most perfect for the Cincinnati Reds and Texas Rangers.
White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen has dismissed any speculation that veteran Omar Vizquel could a roster casualty to make room for Dayan Viciedo. As usual, Guillen made his case in spirited fashion.
"If people [don't see] what Vizquel [can] do for us, wow. They don't know too much about baseball," Guillen tells the Chicago Sun-Times.
Guillen adds that the promotion of Viciedo would create an outfield logjam. Plus, Vizquel is the only true backup at shortstop.
The chances of a call-up may have diminished anyway after Viciedo, who is batting .307 with 16 home runs and 65 RBIs, left Saturday's game at Louisville because of a sore thumb that Guillen said has bothered him for a week.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Bell prefers to stay in NL[/h3]
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In the days immediately following the All-Star Game, Bell put his chances of being traded at 90 percent. Fast forward to Sunday, and Bell tells Dan Norcross of the Union Tribune that nothing has changed.
Bell tells Norcross his priorities would be: a) to be dealt to a contender; b) traded to a National League team; c) traded to the Diamondbacks or Angels because they?re close to San Diego.
The Angels could be a long shot. Kevin Baxter of the LA Times wrote Sunday that the Angels have been eagerly courting the Padres regarding Bell and/or http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5969/mike-adamsMike Adams, but the Halos don't appear to have the means to complete a deal.
The list of suitors for Bell so far have included more high profile clubs such as the Yankees and Cardinals, but Ken Rosenthal reported last week the Blue Jays have made an inquiry.
The Rangers have zeroed in on Bell, according to a recent report on ESPNNewYork.com. They have been linked to Bell all season and though they will use the right-hander primarily in a setup role.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Fish not interested in Inge[/h3]
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Rodriguez wrote over the weekend that a source told him a Marlins official was unsure how the Inge rumor started and there was nothing to it. An MLB.com report Thursday said that the Fish have interest in acquiring Inge to help fill their void at third base.
The struggling Inge accepted a demotion to Triple-A Toledo last week. A trade still seems plausible since Inge is expendable due to the acquisition of Wilson Betemit from Kansas City.
Jon Morosi of FoxSports.com says the Tigers have continued conversations with the Dodgers about the Japanese righthander.
There is a notable obstacle -- Kuroda, a free agent after the season, has a full no-trade clause. The reliever recently told Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times that he was unsure whether he would waive the clause. Kuroda likes pitching in LA and could be convinced to waive his no-trade clause, leave as a two-month rental, and then come back next season.
The Indians and Rangers are other clubs linked to Kuroda and that list could grow in the next few days. Our Buster Olney gave this take on Kuroda in Sunday's blog:
"Kuroda has not ruled any team out, in his discussions with the Dodgers related to his no-trade clause, and so the Dodgers will take the offers to him on a case-by-case basis, if they have something serious arranged. The Red Sox are one of those teams for which Kuroda would be a nice fit, especially considering the reality that Boston doesn't know when Clay Buchholz will be coming back."
No word on which teams have done as such, but the Boston Red Sox could see Fukudome as a nice addition to their outfield group without it costing them top prospects, as it likely would for Carlos Beltran or Hunter Pence. The San Francisco Giants could be one of those clubs, too, as could the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Fukudome is owed about $4.5 million the rest of this season, but will not come with potential free-agent compensation as it stipulates in his contract that he will be extended by a specific date in November or will be released.
- Jason A. Churchill
http://[h3]Upton an alternative to Beltran?[/h3]
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Upton remains a Ray, at least for now, but a new era is under way with the decision to recall Jennings from Triple-A Durham after Friday night's loss to the Royals and demote shortstop http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28707/reid-brignacReid Brignac to Durham.
The promotion of Jennings immediately accelerates the trade rumors regarding Upton, who will be coveted by several teams in need of an impact bat. We mentioned that some of the teams believed to be looking at http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3971/carlos-beltranCarlos Beltran could inquire about Upton, and that appears to be the case with the Giants and Indians, Ken Rosenthal reported Sunday night.
Rosenthal adds that the Braves, Phillies and Rangers also could target Upton as an alternative. Upton is seven years younger Beltran and is under club control through 2012.
Meanwhile, Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post reports the Nationals continue to have interest in acquiring Upton and sent a scout to watch during the Rays' series against the Yankees last week.
There is one major road block: Upton will become a free agent after the 2012 season, and Kilgore says the Nationals would like more of a long-term solution to their needs in center field.
Jennings had risen from a preseason rank to 20 to No. 8 in Keith Law's updated list of 2011 Top 50 Prospects.
UPDATE: The Rays have told teams they will not trade Shields this summer, reports Danny Knobler via Twitter. It was never clear Shields was truly available, but perhaps GM Andrew Friedman entertains the though of moving Shields over the winter, instead.
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UPDATE; In his latest tweet on the availability of Shields, ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney notes that the Yankees called the Rays to ask about the right-hander but were told he's not available. The next five words in Olney's tweet say it all: "Presumably to NYY, and BOS."
It's very possible the Rays want to avoid one of their own coming back to burn them, and they may have gone out of their way to send Matt Garza to the National League this past winter, though they did receive a quality package of talent in return.
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UPDATE: If the Rays engage in trade discussions involving James Shields with the Cincinnati Reds, catching prospect Devin Mesoraco may be the key to any package Tampa requests, tweets ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney. It's feasible, however, that the Reds could get a deal done without Mesoraco, especially if Yasmani Grandal, the club's other catching prospect, were included.
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We mentioned earlier this week how the Tampa Bay Rays, because of their limited financial resources, don't fall into a neat category as the trade deadline approaches.
The name of James Shields continues to pop up, and the righthander again demonstrated his value Thursday night when he bested the Yankees' CC Sabathia in a pitcher's duel at Tropicana Field.
The Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals have been mentioned as suitors, but Shields tells Marc Topkin of the St. Pete Times he has no interest in leaving Florida's Gulf Coast. "I love this town. I want to be here. And I think we have a good team," Shields said.
What would it take to land Shields? ESPN.com's Jim Bowden gives his suggestion on what the Reds could offer:
"Reds prospects Devin Mesoraco and Yonder Alonso would be a great haul for Shields. This deal would give the Rays their long-term solutions at catcher and first base and give the Reds a top-of-the-rotation starter to go with Johnny Cueto. Shields has reasonable club options for the next three seasons, so he would not be a short-term rental, which is why the price would be so steep. If the Rays were willing to substitute catching prospect Yasmani Grandal for Mesoraco in this trade, the Reds would have to consider it. The Rays could replace Shields in the rotation with Matt Moore, one of baseball?s best pitching prospects."
At a time when the Mets want a star prospect for Carlos Beltran and the Astros are looking for an enormous package of young players for Hunter Pence, someone like Reed Johnson is the Chevy amid the luxury lot. He's pounded left-handed pitchers this year, posting an on-base percentage of .407 and an OPS of nearly 1.000. On top of that, Johnson is making just $900,000 in salary.
But while that sounds nice, and many teams have called the Cubs about Johnson's availability, nobody would probably give up anything decent for a 34-year-old outfielder who will be eligible for free agency this fall. "You might get an organizational guy," said one highly ranked executive, mentioning the kind of minor leaguer who is needed by every team to help stabilize a team of young players. "Or maybe you'd get a guy who would be in the big leagues very briefly. Does that really help you?"
The Dodgers may well keep Jamey Carroll for the same reason -- they wouldn't get much in return, given his RBI production -- and the Royals are well aware that while other teams like Melky Cabrera and Jeff Francoeur, neither is going to generate a solid Grade B prospect in return. Oakland has a bunch of relievers who could be had in trades, including Michael Wuertz. "But they're just not going to give them away," said one high-ranking executive.
There is interest in Rafael Furcal, who got a big hit for the Dodgers on Saturday. But again, it's unclear what Los Angeles could get in return beyond some salary relief.
• The Mets continue to talk with the Giants and Phillies about Beltran, and they want a top pitching prospect from the Braves. Atlanta certainly has them, including Mike Minor, Julio Teheran, Arodys Vizcaino and Randall Delgado, who are all considered high-end prospects by other teams.
I asked a rival evaluator -- whose team is not involved in the Beltran trade talks, and isn't in the same division as the Braves -- to rank the four prospects in his eyes. His feeling:
1. Teheran
2. Vizcaino
3. Minor
4. Delgado
"To me," the evaluator said, "you could flip-flop the top two" -- Teheran and Vizcaino -- "or the bottom two." Minor and Delgado, the evaluator said, are "third-starter type of guys."
I asked the evaluator if he thought that the price tag of one of those four pitchers was too high for a two-month rental, and he paused. "Yes, probably," he said. "I don't know what [the Braves'] other options are, but I can't see Frank [Wren] trading one of them."
The Braves could try to offer the Mets a package of less-touted prospects. But that's not the Mets' intention: They believe that they'll get a good prospect, eventually, as they walk down the line in trade talks with all the interested teams.
• The Indians are among the teams which have talked with the Rays about B.J. Upton, sources say, and Upton is trying to not let the trade rumors affect him, Marc Topkin writes. The guess here is that he will be dealt.
[h3]Other trade buzz[/h3]
1. Hiroki Kuroda has not ruled any team out in his discussions with the Dodgers related to his no-trade clause, and so the Dodgers will take the offers to him on a case-by-case basis, if they have something serious arranged. The Red Sox are one of those teams for which Kuroda would be a nice fit, especially considering the reality that Boston doesn't know when Clay Buchholz will be coming back. To back up what old friend Peter Gammons has reported, the Red Sox and Oakland have talked about Rich Harden; in fact, the recent round of talk was the second time the two sides have discussed Harden, with the first time coming in early July.
To be clear, Oakland and the Red Sox are not close to a deal for the right-hander, but he would make sense in this regard: He's capable of four weeks or six weeks of high-ceiling performance, between his injuries. Sources say that Boston's current priority in the trade market is pitching, and that the notion of trading for Beltran is a long shot.
2. The Yankees have Rafael Soriano coming back and Ivan Nova on layaway in the minors, so they don't feel an urgency to make a deal. They have had conversations with teams about relievers, including the Padres' Mike Adams, but the gap between what the Padres asked for and what the Yankees were willing to give up was enormous; a Yankees deal for Adams is highly unlikely.
But don't be surprised if the Yankees do what they did in the last days before last year's deadline: As teams change course with the deadline looming and try to dump money, don't be surprised to see the Yankees jump in and gobble up depth, as they did with the acquisitions of Lance Berkman, Kerry Wood and Austin Kearns. But the Yankees will wait for the market to come to them.
For example (and this is total speculation): I wonder if they would take the salary of Carlos Pena if they felt he would be an upgrade over Jorge Posada at DH. Pena's on-base percentage is 30 points higher, he's hit more homers than anyone other than Jose Bautista since the end of April and he and Mark Teixeira could split time at first base; both are excellent defensively.
4. If the Cardinals don't make a move, Tony La Russa will be OK with that. The full expectation within the industry is that they will add a reliever, at least. And the Colby Rasmus situation festers: La Russa started Jon Jay in center field, again.
5. There are indications that the Twins and Orioles may have something brewing, writes Jeff Zrebiec.
It will be extremely difficult for the Orioles to get equal value for Koji Uehara in this market glutted by right-handed relievers, and given his contract option for $4 million and Baltimore's need for pitching, it makes a lot of sense for them to keep him. It would be almost impossible for the Orioles to sign a reliever on a one-year deal this winter coming off a performance like the one Uehara is generating this summer.
7. The Mets will be looking for top prospects, writes Andy Martino.
8. The Phillies have a great trade deadline track record, writes Joel Sherman.
9. It seems more and more likely that the Rays are going to trade Upton, and the Nationals are interested, Adam Kilgore writes.
10. The Angels don't appear to be in position to get much done before the deadline, writes Kevin Baxter.
11. Sources say the Marlins are currently in a holding pattern -- not really looking to move players, despite the many calls they've gotten on relievers like Leo Nunez and Randy Choate, and not really looking to add. Florida's situation is complicated by the fact that the team wants to win as many games as possible -- even if the team is not in serious contention for a playoff spot -- before moving into its new ballpark next spring.
13. Going for it could be too expensive for the Reds, writes Paul Daugherty.
14. If the Cubs hung on to Carlos Pena, it would say a lot about their plans, writes Gordon Wittenmyer.
15. The Twins' concern over Kyle Gibson could impact trades.
16. The Indians' success at the deadline has been mixed, writes Dennis Manoloff.
Reds likely to go on a run.
Spoiler [+]
CINCINNATI -- As manager Dusty Baker chatted in his office a few hours before "Sunday Night Baseball," the Reds were 39 days from the last time they had registered back-to-back wins. And Baker talked about waiting for his team to get on the kind of roll that hasn't happened yet this year -- a roll that seems inevitable, given the fact that Cincinnati has essentially the same core of young players that won the NL Central last year.
Getty ImagesDrew Stubbs is just one of the many talents on the Reds roster. Will they put it back together?
Joey Votto, the reigning NL MVP, is still here, and so is Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce and the strong catching duo of Ryan Hanigan and Ramon Hernandez. Aroldis Chapman has been throwing strikes, and Dontrelle Willis looks completely different than he did with the Tigers, slimmed down and joyful again. The Reds are hopeful that Edinson Volquez has gotten angry in a good way in the aftermath of his demotion to the minors, and will soon come back refocused; no one has ever doubted his ability.
And presumably, the Reds will add help before the trade deadline, like other teams. While Baker talked, his phone rang: It was Cincinnati GM Walt Jocketty, who had just finished watching the ceremonies in Cooperstown. Baker answered and told Jocketty that he'd call him back, after the reporters left the room, and maybe their subsequent conversation was about a starting pitcher or a reliever or the kind of middle-of-the order hitter they've sought.
But if the Reds are going to find a solution, a big part of it will inevitably be Drew Stubbs. Somebody posed an interesting question on Twitter the other day: Of all the players in Major League Baseball, who would be the best decathletes? In other words, who would be the guy who could best run, jump, throw through all those events? And the first two names that jumped to mind, for me, were Stubbs and Jacoby Ellsbury.
Stubbs is one because he's a package of remarkable physical talent. On Saturday, he made a ridiculous throw home, and in the first inning Sunday, he reached after Martin Prado fumbled his grounder and Stubbs outran the throw to first. Then in the bottom of the ninth inning, Stubbs had the strength to club the very first pitch over the right field wall -- to the opposite field -- for a game-ending home run.
On the walk back to the hotel after the game, Tim Kurkjian mentioned that Stubbs and he had once had a conversation about how Stubbs had run hurdles as a teenager.
The Reds, by the way, now have won back to back games for the first time since mid-June, and despite all of their problems and frustrations and weaknesses, Cincinnati is just three games out of first place. The NL Central is wide open.
Barry Larkinhad some fun.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• The Mariners' losing streak is getting pretty ugly, at 15 games, and now Seattle will be playing in Yankee Stadium this week. The feeling among the Mariners' coaches, and for catcher Miguel Olivo, was that Michael Pineda was tipping his pitches. But he may be hitting the wall, too: In his first 15 starts, he was 7-4 with a 2.45 ERA, a .199 opponents batting average. He'd allowed just .7 home runs per 9 IP. In his last five starts, he's 1-3 with a 7.71 ERA, a .248 average against and 1.6 HR/9.
Eric Wedge shaved his facial hair in an effort to change his luck.
• The Hall of Fame may reduce the wait for induction to three years, writes Kevin Kernan. This would be a very, very, very smart way for the Hall to bridge the gap as the PED guys begin to saturate the list of eligible candidates.
[h3]Trade stuff[/h3] 1.Colby Rasmus was offered to the White Sox. Edwin Jackson wasn't surprised when he heard about the report that he might be in the middle of the Cardinals-Chicago talks.
3. Roy Halladay's dominance continued. From ESPN Stats & Information, how Halladay won:
• Halladay labored through the first five innings, throwing 91 pitches while allowing eight baserunners and three runs (two earned). In his last three innings, Halladay threw just 25 pitches and didn't allow a baserunner.
• In his last three innings, Halladay was able to get ahead of hitters more effectively. He threw 64 percent first-pitch strikes through the first five innings but increased that to 78 percent from the sixth on. Halladay doubled his cutter use and decreased his two-seam fastball and changeup use on the first pitch over the last three innings, keeping Padres hitters off balance.
• Eleven of the first 25 batters he faced would swing at the first pitch -- getting two hits -- while only one of the final nine batters he faced would swing at pitch one.
• The Phillies are now 39-15 in games that Roy Halladay has started.
FROM ELIAS: The Phillies' .722 win percentage behind Halladay is tied for the best team win percentage in a pitcher's starts since 1900:
Roy Halladay (PHI) .722
Nick Maddox (PIT) .722
Russ Meyer (BKN) .718
Lefty Grove (PHA) .713
• In three career starts against the Brewers, Bumgarner has a 1.27 ERA and 18 strikeouts to just four walks in 21 1/3 innings. In each of those three starts, Bumgarner has attacked Brewers hitters, particularly righties, inside. On Sunday, 32 of his 81 pitches (39.5 pct) to righties were inside, his fifth-highest percentage this season and 12th in his 40 career regular season starts; his other two starts against the Brewers rank first and sixth. Righties were just 1 for 9 Sunday, including three strikeouts, in at-bats ending on an inside pitch.
• Bumgarner relied on his slider more often than usual Sunday, and wasn't afraid to come inside with it. He threw the pitch 39 percent of the time, his second highest in a start this season. Bumgarner threw more sliders than fastballs inside to righties, and hitters were 0 for 4 in at-bats ending in a slider inside.
6.John Buck came out of the bullpen to get a big hit. Emilio Bonifacio has been on a serious tear: From ESPN Stats & Info: Bonifacio has sparked the Marlins offense, as he leads the majors with 21 runs, a .489 on-base percentage, and 14 stolen bases in July. The Marlins are 13-8 in July, averaging 5.1 runs per game. Prior to this month, Bonifacio sported a .331 on-base percentage with only 8 stolen bases.
By the time a player reaches his peak, usually in his late 20s, you have a pretty good idea where his career is heading. While there are always exceptions, if a player hits 30 and doesn't look to be on any kind of a Hall of Fame trajectory, chances are he never will be. Today's honorees were no exception -- through their 27th birthdays, Bert Blyleven already had 136 wins and a 2.81 ERA to match, and Roberto Alomar already had nearly 1,500 hits, five Gold Gloves, and six All-Star appearances.
Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera and Albert Pujols are Hall of Famers. Their records aren't complete, but all of them will make the Hall of Fame, even if they retired tomorrow afternoon. For younger stars, their fates aren't as set.
So, what are the odds that the current generation of young stars makes the Hall? To get an idea of their chances, I used historical wins above replacement (WAR) from baseball-reference and made a simple model of likelihood based on WAR and for batters, position. While most voters don't explicitly use any kind of WAR measure, the things that WAR likes, especially over a long career, are the things voters like: hitting lots of homers, throwing lots of innings and getting lots of batters out. The top five Hall-eligible hitters by WAR are Babe Ruth, Ty Cobb, Willie Mays, Hank Aaron and Honus Wagner, and even the biggest stat skeptic won't find much to quibble with there.
Position does matter quite a bit. Second basemen, third basemen and center fielders, the positions in the "middle" of the defensive spectrum, generally require more WAR to get into the Hall than players at other positions.
In developing a model, I looked only at players who have gotten to the point at which they've been rejected by the BBWAA. It's too soon to know how voters will treat Barry Bonds or Roger Clemens, after all.
Using the ZiPS projection system, I then projected career WAR for every regular player age 27 this season or younger.
Here are the most likely candidates to be on a Hall of Fame track:
[h3]THE FRONT-RUNNERS (greater than 50 percent)[/h3]
The front-runners obviously have the easiest path to the Hall. Unless their careers take a very negative turn, they're solidly on a Hall trajectory.
Felix Hernandez is the biggest slam dunk, with an estimated 80 percent chance of getting his WAR into the automatic range, essentially the odds that his career isn't completely derailed by injury. All 22 eligible pitchers with 70 WAR are in the Hall, and Felix, with 27 WAR at age 25, is already more than a third of the way there.
Evan Longoria leads the position players, with a projected 69 WAR (just 25 this year, Longoria already has 21 WAR). Almost every player in that range is in the Hall. Longoria's hurt by being a third baseman (Ron Santo is one of the most notable Hall snubs in that range), but he looks to be one of the best third basemen of his generation.
Hanley Ramirez is at a hair under 30 WAR already, so even with a very poor season, he has enough "slack" that he still has a very good chance (62 percent).
[h3]THE FENCE (25-50 percent)[/h3]
Once we get into the 25-50 percent range, you're looking at players who have very good odds for the Hall early on, but could see their chances drop with a decline in play.
Dustin Pedroia is at 23 WAR at 27, but second basemen have a hard road in general; not only do they need more WAR to get into the Hall, but they have pretty steep aging curves that shorten their careers. Bobby Grich and Lou Whitaker are two of the biggest snubs, and ZiPS puts Pedroia in the range (58 WAR) where it's not a slam dunk. Pedroia is at 48 percent odds now (a lot can go wrong in 10 years), but playing for the Red Sox won't hurt him.
Troy Tulowitzki is right behind at 47 percent, mostly due to an up-and-down injury history. It's not included in this model as there isn't enough data, but I'm wondering if there may not be a "Reverse Coors" effect that may cause voters to overcorrect for playing at Coors Field, as seen by the Larry Walker disinterest.
Brian McCann, 27, is at 20 WAR and a definite contender -- his six All-Star Game appearances were well earned. Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder also make this category. Braun's a little behind the pace of Hall of Famers from an age standpoint and Fielder doesn't project to age very well.
Joey Votto (35 percent) is one of the players who's moved up here quickly in recent years. He didn't have his first Hall of Fame-type season until 25, but now he's making up for lost time.
Ryan Zimmerman's the last hitter in this group, with a 1-in-3 shot. Third basemen don't get much respect.
On the mound, Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum both make the cut, with 30 percent chances. ZiPS projects them both to finish with 200 wins, but pitchers are riskier as a matter of course. Zack Greinke closely follows at 29 percent.
[h3]THE LAGGERS (10-25 percent)[/h3]
These guys need some help. All of them are stars, but haven't been stars long enough -- or are young enough that they're on track -- to put up the mass totals needed to get into the Hall.
Justin Upton is a really good player and has had the benefit of grabbing a full-time job early, which will make it easier for him to accumulate good numbers long-term. All he really needs to move up is to finally break out and have that MVP-type season. Upton's right at the cusp of 25 percent, so just finishing the year the way he's played will move him into the next category.
Josh Johnson just misses the cut, with Hall of Fame talent, but a very poor injury history. Jon Lester and Cole Hamels also just miss the 25 percent mark -- both are projected to finish at just under 200 wins. Neither is likely to make a run at 300, but the difficulty of pitchers with fewer than 300 wins getting into the Hall is a modern development.
If Matt Kemp can show that 2011 isn't a fluke but a simple step up and stays in center, he could move up very quickly in the rankings. B.J. Upton and Nick Markakis still have the potential to amass impressive career numbers, but both have been disappointing recently. Some younger stars -- Jason Heyward, Buster Posey and Carlos Santana -- make this list, but they're still many years off, which hurts their standing.
Clayton Kershaw comes next here, at 14 WAR at age 23, but with a long road left. Bringing up the rear here (relatively speaking as these are all terrific players) are Ubaldo Jimenez and John Danks.
While we don't know who will be joining Blyleven and Alomar sometime in the Year 2030 or so, it's always fun to take a sneak peek. An important point to consider is how Hall of Fame standards change over time. For example, if you look at the 1930 season, 34 of the 128 full-time position players (26.5 percent) from that year are in the Hall, with only the Red Sox and White Sox without a Hall of Famer in the lineup. If that ratio applied to 2011, you'd expect to see an amazing 67 future Hall of Famers in regular lineups alone. The long-term effects of steroids on voting are yet to be determined and there's a very real chance that a logjam of players under suspicion end up staying on the ballot for years, resulting in a real voting mess.
Cleveland's new 2nd baseman.
Spoiler [+]
Chris Antonetti, the Cleveland Indians' VP and GM, announced the Indians have promoted top second-base prospect Jason Kipnis from Triple-A Columbus of the International League. Kipnis, 24, was originally drafted by the Padres in the fourth round of the 2008 June amateur draft but did not sign. He was the Pacific-10 player of the year at Arizona State the following year and was drafted the next season by the Indians in the second round of the 2009 draft, ultimately signing for $575,000. He was moved from the outfield to second base that fall during the Indians' Instructional League program.
Kipnis hits the ball hard to all fields with surprising power for his 5-foot-11 frame. With his strong forearms, hands and wrists, along with a strong mid-section, he projects to being a 15-18 home run hitter. The bat will be an immediate upgrade for the Tribe at second base.
Defensively, he is improving at second but still has more work to do. However, he does have good hands and his feet are quicker than his raw speed.
Kipnis, 24, was hitting .281/.363/.485 with 15 doubles, nine triples, 12 home runs, 54 RBIs and 12 stolen bases (in 13 attempts) at the time of his promotion.
BOTTOM LINE: While the Indians' starting lineup just improved, we’ll have to watch Kipnis' defense closely to see how far he’s progressed since he changed positions less than two years ago.
Understanding Greinke's struggle.
Spoiler [+]
Since making his Milwaukee Brewers debut May 4, Zack Greinke has not produced the results Milwaukee expected when it traded three big league-ready youngsters for him and Yuniesky Betancourt this past offseason. With a 4.84 ERA after Thursday's loss to Arizona, Greinke has allowed 56 runs in his 15 starts this year, compared to the 64 runs he allowed in 33 starts in his 2.14 ERA Cy Young campaign of 2009.
Loyal FanGraphs readers will be quick to point out his high .332 Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP), high Home Runs per Fly Ball ratio (16 percent), and his low 3.01 Fielder Independent Pitching (FIP) numbers, concluding that Greinke has been "unlucky" thus far in 2011. Greinke's 11.8 strikeouts per nine innings and 1.9 walks per nine are both the best figures of his career. Typically these numbers suggest an improvement in a pitcher's underlying skill level. However, Greinke's ERA has actually gone up with the move to the National League.
Since Greinke's strikeout and walk rates have improved, we see that his struggles have come when opposing batters make contact. The most obvious culprit is Milwaukee's questionable defense.
[h4]Not the best defense[/h4]
Milwaukee's infielders have not fared well in the Runs Saved metric in recent seasons.
The Brewers' infield consists of several of the league's worst fielders, with Casey McGehee at third base, Betancourt at shortstop, Rickie Weeks at second and Prince Fielder at first. Each of these infielders rates at or near the bottom of his position defensively. Manager Ron Roenicke has attempted to minimize the problem with aggressive shifting this season, but the unit still ranks just 17th out of 30 MLB infields according to Runs Saved.
Thanks to Carlos Gomez, who ranks second among all center fielders this year with 17 Runs Saved, the outfield defense rates far above their infield teammates. And as you would expect, the Brewers' two fly-ball pitchers (Randy Wolf and Shaun Marcum) have gotten much better defensive support than their ground-ball rotation mates. Wolf and Marcum have the lowest Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) numbers on the team, while Yovani Gallardo, Chris Narveson, and Greinke all have ERAs that exceed their FIPs. However, with Gomez hitting the disabled list with a broken collarbone, Marcum's and Wolf's "luck" may be about up.
Greinke has also seen fewer Good Fielding Plays and more Defensive Misplays than most pitchers this season. Good Fielding Plays, as recorded by Baseball Info Solutions (BIS) video scouts, are Web Gem-type plays in which the fielder did something to take away a hit or an extra base. Defensive Misplays are the opposite; when a fielder allows a batter to reach base or a runner to take an extra base because of an identifiable miscue, he's charged a Defensive Misplay. On Greinke's 235 balls in play, Milwaukee fielders have made 13 Good Fielding Plays and 21 Defensive Misplays and errors, both worse than the league average rates.
We also see that Greinke has allowed stronger contact on batted balls this season. First of all, he has allowed 13 home runs in 87 innings this year, compared to 18 all of last year and just 11 in 2009, both in over 220 innings.
Similarly, while Greinke has maintained a league-average ground-ball rate, he has yielded far more "fliners" than fly balls. Baseball Info Solutions' video scouts score "fliners" on balls between true line drives and fly balls. While fly balls in play are caught 95 percent of the time for outs, fliners go for hits half the time (51 percent), so Greinke's 7 percent fewer fly balls is significant. With a league-average distribution of balls in play, Greinke would have allowed about eight fewer hits this year.
[h4]Spreading things around[/h4]
Distribution of balls in play (2011)
Of course, the Brewers simply want to know what they can expect from the former Cy Young hurler during the pennant race. While Greinke's batted-ball distribution should balance out a bit, the poor Brewers defense behind him is likely to only get worse, unless general manager Doug Melvin can pick up a defensive-minded player or two for the left side of the infield. Greinke is off to a good start in turning things around, however, having lowered his ERA nearly a full run in his past three starts.
Rumors.
Spoiler [+]
http://[h3]Braves balk at prospect for Beltran[/h3]
11:14AM ET
UPDATE: The Mets wants a top pitching prospect for Beltran, but may not get it from the Braves. Buster Olney tweets Monday morning that all signs point to Atlanta refusing to give up any one of their four core pitching prospects: Julio Teheran, Arodys Vizcaino, Mike Minor and Randall Delgado.
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Carlos Beltran packed his bags Sunday and headed from Miami to Cincinnati. His next stop after the Queen City is anyone's guess.
The Mets outfielder remains the center of the trade rumor universe, telling Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com he would not rule out accepting a trade to any of the five primary teams in pursuit of him. Using his no-trade clause as leverage, Beltran also expressed a strong preference to remain in the National League and in right field.
Beltran said he was uninterested in serving as a designated hitter even twice a week, and wanted to stay in the NL since he is not as familiar with American League pitching.
ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney reiterated Sunday that the Beltran talks are down to five teams -- Boston, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Atlanta and Texas ? adding that a deal with the Red Sox may be a long shot at this point.
Meanwhile, Beltran has told the Mets he only wants to be traded to one of seven National League contenders, reports ESPN.com's Jayson Stark. He The source, who was not present for the conversation, said Beltran doesn't want to approve a deal to Texas because the Rangers would want him to play center field and because he's not familiar with the AL West. Texas has been described by multiple sources to have ramped up its pursuit of Beltran over the weekend.
The source said he wasn't given the names of the seven NL teams to which Beltran would OK a deal. But only eight NL clubs started Sunday within four games of a playoff spot -- the Phillies, Braves, Giants, Cardinals, Brewers, Pirates, Reds and Diamondbacks. Of that group, six teams -- the Phillies, Braves, Giants, Pirates, Reds and Brewers -- have expressed interest in Beltran at various points this month.
One side note - if Beltran were to be traded to Atlanta, he would be back in Queens almost immediatelty. The Braves have two road series against the Mets next month, beginning the weekend of August 5-7.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Plenty of interest in Bourn, Pence [/h3]
10:59AM ET
[h5]Houston Astros [/h5]
UPDATE: Pence and Bourn have been attracting considerable attention but will come only at a stiff price, says MLB.com's Brian McTaggert.
McTaggert adds that Houston is more likely to deal pitchers Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers, despite their multi-year contracts. A Sunday report on FoxSports.com says Rodriguez reportedly has drawn interest from the Diamondbacks.
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Whenever a general manager says a deal isn't about the money, it almost always is. So give the Houston Astros credit for admitting that the expected franchise overhaul has the bottom line in mind.
"Certainly, all players are going to be viewed not only in the context of what they bring to the table from a performance standpoint but also the economics," GM Ed Wade concedes to Zachary Levine of the Houston Chronicle.
Levine analyzes the Astros' plans as the deadline approaches and says every name is on the table with the exception of Carlos Lee, and that is only because his contract is too burdensome.
The incoming ownership group headed by Jim Crane wants to build from the farm system up, which will promt Wade to entertain offers for Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn. The Astros could take a big step toward clearing payroll for the new ownership regime by trading Brett Myers and Wandy Rodriguez.
ESPN.com's Jim Bowden suggests Bourn could be an ideal fit for at least one NL team:
"Houston's Michael Bourn would give the Braves a legitimate top-of-the-order game-changer who led the NL in steals the last two years and is leading the league again this year. He has a .350 OBP and can run the ball down in center field with phenomenal range. The Braves could offer the Astros left-handed starter Mike Minor, outfielder Jordan Schafer and pitching prospect J.J. Hoover in a blockbuster. The Astros need to build for the future, and the chance to get two pitching prospects and a good defensive center fielder with a strong arm would give them a big boost."
UPDATE: Rob Biertempfel of the Tribune Review says the Pirates made a pitch for Pena, but were rebuffed.
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The Chicago Cubs would like to move left fielder Alfonso Soriano, and are willing to eat some salary in order to do it. They could push the envelope and ask third baseman Aramis Ramirez to waive his no-trade clause, despite Ramirez's agent Paul Kinzer reiterating, seemingly on a weekly basis, that Ramirez wants no part of leaving Chicago. The Cubs, however, can deal first baseman Carlos Pena wthout his permission, and he hasn't a bad contract weighing down his value.
The Cubs, however, could see Pena as a part of their future, writes Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. That sentiment isn't perfect, however, as Pena is a free agent at season's end, is having a better season this year than last and could command a multi-year contract worth more than the $10 million he's making this season.
And by trading Pena now, the Cubs don't eliminate themselves from contending for his services over the winter. Money talks, and the number isn't likely to change much whether they trade Pena or keep him.
http://[h3]Rockies looking to sell?[/h3]
10:12AM ET
[h5]Colorado Rockies [/h5]
The Colorado Rockies' deficit in both the NL West and the wild card has reached double digits, so even another patented late-season surge, similar to what we saw in 2007 and 2009, may not be enough.
Reality may have set and the departure of some spare parts may be on the way. ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney writes in Monday's blog that the expectation among some rival evaluators is that Rafael Betancourt, Ty Wigginton and Jason Giambi could all change addresses this week.
Giambi has has performed well enough this season to draw trade interest, FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal tweeted last week.Rosenthal notes that Giambi has indicated he wants to stay in Colorado and that the club will consult the veteran before making any decision.
UPDATE: Strauss has an updated version of his story in Monday's Post Dispatch, adding that the Cardinals' negotiations with White Sox general manager Kenny Williams have "accelerated in recent days," with the Sox able to make available Edwin Jackson or Matt Thornton.
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UPDATE: Joe Strauss of the Post-Dispatch writes Sunday that the Cardinals have had discussions with the Chicago White Sox about Rasmus, with names such as Edwin Jackson and Matt Thornton mentioned as possible bait. The White Sox may have trouble putting together enough young talent to get a deal done, however, but stay tuned, GM Kenny Williams can be creative.
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UPDATE: The Cardinals have repeatedly said they are not trading Rasmus but ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney reports via Twitter that some rival executives believe GM John Mozeliak still would move Rasmus in the right deal.
This could be a move made over the winter, but there seems to be enough talk this month that it wouldn't be a surprise if Rasmus were dealt.
...
UPDATE: Rasmus isn't being shopped by the Cardinals, tweets SI.com's Jon Heyman, though the Rays, Red Sox and other clubs have contacted GM John Mozeliak to inquire about the centerfielder. Mozeliak called a trade of Rasmus "highly unlikely."
...
UPDATE: In Thursday's blog, ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney wonders how word of the Cardinals' willingness to trade Rasmus leaked out. "I think the answer would help define the depth of unhappiness with Rasmus," Olney writes.
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UPDATE: Jim Bowden poured some cold water on the Rasmus talk, tweeting Tuesday that the Cardinals "made it very clear" to him that there is no truth to rumors that they are considering moving the outfielder.
Could that have changed now that the Brewers have upped the ante in the NL Central with the deal for Francisco Rodriguez?
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The St. Louis Cardinals have managed to stay afloat in the National League Central despite a rash of injuries. A team that has used the disabled list 15 times this season is willing to deal, and the trade bait might include the enigmatic Colby Rasmus, reports Joe Strauss of the Post-Dispatch.
Over the next three weeks the Cardinals hope to move aggressively to acquire a pitcher to bolster the back end of its starting rotation or to give the bullpen a jolt. The main bargaining chip could be the previously unavailable Rasmus, who is closing in on arbitration and has shown erratic development as a center fielder. But even with his stock down slightly, Rasmus (.264 BA) could still bring back solid value.
Strauss hears that GM John Mozeliak be willing to call on long-standing interest from the pitching-rich Tampa Bay Rays, who could use another bat.
A trade of Rasmus could indicate the Cardinals are willing to hand the center field job over to Jon Jay, at least temporarily.
ESPN Insider's Jason A. Churchill suggests that Rasmus could be an ideal buy-low trade candidate should the Cardinals choose to shop his services.
"A change of scenery might work out well for him, and there certainly would be no shortage of interested parties should the Cards choose to field offers. Rasmus will not turn 25 until next month and will hit arbitration for the first time after this season. The acquiring club would gain three years of club control. Additionally, if they made a deal this month, they also would net an extra couple months. As a result of his contract status, Rasmus' market wouldn't likely be limited to contending clubs, which increases his value to GM John Mozeliak. There is still a chance Rasmus blossoms into a star, placing him among the very best buy-low candidates."
http://[h3]Sticker shock for Pirates GM?[/h3]
9:47AM ET
[h5]Pittsburgh Pirates [/h5]
UPDATE: Pirates GM Neal Huntington is looking to buy and not sell, but the price so far is too high. "I think the fact that we're in a pennant race, I think the fact that we're on pace to break an 18-year streak, the fans are coming out in droves ... if I were in [other teams'] shoes, I would be trying to leverage that as best I could," Huntington says in Monday's Post-Gazette.
It could come down to whether Huntington is willing to roll the dice on winning this season, just as the Brewers have done with the recent deal for Francisco Rodriguez.
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UPDATE: The Pirates are also out shopping for relief help, tweets Jon Morosi of FOXSports.com. Morosi's tweet included the names of potential targets such as Koji Uehara, Octavio Dotel and Jason Frasor, but the Bucs could also eye Orioles righty Jim Johnson and Mariners closer Brandon League.
UPDATE: The Pirates have had internal discussions about chasing A's outfielder David DeJesus, tweets Olney, more evidence that the Bucs are in the market for an outfielder.
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UPDATE: Rob Biertempfel reports via Twitter Wednesday that the Pirates have been discussing a deal with the A's that would bring left-hander Craig Breslow and outfielder Josh Willingham to Pittsburgh.
The Pirates could use Willingham in left in place of the injured Jose Tabata and then move one of the two left fielders to right and deal Garrett Jones once Tabata is healthy. It's possible that Jones is part of such a trade with Oakland.
The first-place Pirates are the talk of baseball, but does GM Neal Huntington need to make a major move to continue what has become a magical summer in Western Pennsylvania?
A posting on the ESPN Stats & Info blog says the numbers point to the Pirates having a hard time continuing their success. The Pirates' starters, for example, entered Tuesday with the second-largest negative differential between ERA and xFIP in all of baseball, making it likely the rotation will regress in the second half.
Dejan Kovakevic of the Tribune Review writes that the Pirates owe it to their fans to go for the big splash and pursue someone like Hunter Pence or Carlos Beltran. This is a real opportunity for the Pirates to stay relevant in the competitve Pittsburgh sports landscape, so why not do for it? MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch said earlier this week the Pirates are looking for a right-handed bat and a reliever and are going to "kick the tires" on a deal for Beltran. - Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Wang return could prompt deal[/h3]
9:33AM ET
By that time, the Nationals may have made room in their rotation by trading a veteran starter, Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post reported last week. The 31-year-old Wang, a two-time 19-game winner, has been recovering from a major shoulder surgery for two years and last pitched in the majors for the Yankees in 2009.
The Nats might be willing to shop free-agent-to-be http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4409/jason-marquisJason Marquis, who could be an attractive two-month rental to a team willing to assume the remainder of his $7.5 million salary for this season. There also is Livan Hernandez, who coud be a valuable innings-eater for a postseason contender.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]MIN, DET, PIT in Uehara chase[/h3]
9:23AM ET
UPDATE: The Baltimore Sun's Jeff Zrebiec writes Monday there is "growing speculation" that Uehara will be moved since the reliever and starter Jeremy Guthrie are the Orioles' only true bargaining chips.
Zrebiec says the Twins, Rangers, Pirates and Twins all have expressed interest in Uehara.
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UPDATE: The Twins have interest in Uehara, reports Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun. Uehara could be used in multiple roles in Minnesota if they acquire the right-hander, including as the closer.
The Orioles are believed to be looking for major-league ready starting pitching. Could Kevin Slowey be a possibility?
Uehara throws a lot of strikes and despite not possessing elite closer stuff has proven a valuable late-inning option in a tough division with numerous impact bats. Along with the Pirates, clubs such as the New York Yankees, Detroit Tigers, St. Louis Cardinals and Arizona Diamondbacks appear to be potential fits, and he might be the most perfect for the Cincinnati Reds and Texas Rangers.
White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen has dismissed any speculation that veteran Omar Vizquel could a roster casualty to make room for Dayan Viciedo. As usual, Guillen made his case in spirited fashion.
"If people [don't see] what Vizquel [can] do for us, wow. They don't know too much about baseball," Guillen tells the Chicago Sun-Times.
Guillen adds that the promotion of Viciedo would create an outfield logjam. Plus, Vizquel is the only true backup at shortstop.
The chances of a call-up may have diminished anyway after Viciedo, who is batting .307 with 16 home runs and 65 RBIs, left Saturday's game at Louisville because of a sore thumb that Guillen said has bothered him for a week.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Bell prefers to stay in NL[/h3]
8:47AM ET
In the days immediately following the All-Star Game, Bell put his chances of being traded at 90 percent. Fast forward to Sunday, and Bell tells Dan Norcross of the Union Tribune that nothing has changed.
Bell tells Norcross his priorities would be: a) to be dealt to a contender; b) traded to a National League team; c) traded to the Diamondbacks or Angels because they?re close to San Diego.
The Angels could be a long shot. Kevin Baxter of the LA Times wrote Sunday that the Angels have been eagerly courting the Padres regarding Bell and/or http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5969/mike-adamsMike Adams, but the Halos don't appear to have the means to complete a deal.
The list of suitors for Bell so far have included more high profile clubs such as the Yankees and Cardinals, but Ken Rosenthal reported last week the Blue Jays have made an inquiry.
The Rangers have zeroed in on Bell, according to a recent report on ESPNNewYork.com. They have been linked to Bell all season and though they will use the right-hander primarily in a setup role.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Fish not interested in Inge[/h3]
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Rodriguez wrote over the weekend that a source told him a Marlins official was unsure how the Inge rumor started and there was nothing to it. An MLB.com report Thursday said that the Fish have interest in acquiring Inge to help fill their void at third base.
The struggling Inge accepted a demotion to Triple-A Toledo last week. A trade still seems plausible since Inge is expendable due to the acquisition of Wilson Betemit from Kansas City.
Jon Morosi of FoxSports.com says the Tigers have continued conversations with the Dodgers about the Japanese righthander.
There is a notable obstacle -- Kuroda, a free agent after the season, has a full no-trade clause. The reliever recently told Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times that he was unsure whether he would waive the clause. Kuroda likes pitching in LA and could be convinced to waive his no-trade clause, leave as a two-month rental, and then come back next season.
The Indians and Rangers are other clubs linked to Kuroda and that list could grow in the next few days. Our Buster Olney gave this take on Kuroda in Sunday's blog:
"Kuroda has not ruled any team out, in his discussions with the Dodgers related to his no-trade clause, and so the Dodgers will take the offers to him on a case-by-case basis, if they have something serious arranged. The Red Sox are one of those teams for which Kuroda would be a nice fit, especially considering the reality that Boston doesn't know when Clay Buchholz will be coming back."
No word on which teams have done as such, but the Boston Red Sox could see Fukudome as a nice addition to their outfield group without it costing them top prospects, as it likely would for Carlos Beltran or Hunter Pence. The San Francisco Giants could be one of those clubs, too, as could the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Fukudome is owed about $4.5 million the rest of this season, but will not come with potential free-agent compensation as it stipulates in his contract that he will be extended by a specific date in November or will be released.
- Jason A. Churchill
http://[h3]Upton an alternative to Beltran?[/h3]
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Upton remains a Ray, at least for now, but a new era is under way with the decision to recall Jennings from Triple-A Durham after Friday night's loss to the Royals and demote shortstop http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28707/reid-brignacReid Brignac to Durham.
The promotion of Jennings immediately accelerates the trade rumors regarding Upton, who will be coveted by several teams in need of an impact bat. We mentioned that some of the teams believed to be looking at http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3971/carlos-beltranCarlos Beltran could inquire about Upton, and that appears to be the case with the Giants and Indians, Ken Rosenthal reported Sunday night.
Rosenthal adds that the Braves, Phillies and Rangers also could target Upton as an alternative. Upton is seven years younger Beltran and is under club control through 2012.
Meanwhile, Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post reports the Nationals continue to have interest in acquiring Upton and sent a scout to watch during the Rays' series against the Yankees last week.
There is one major road block: Upton will become a free agent after the 2012 season, and Kilgore says the Nationals would like more of a long-term solution to their needs in center field.
Jennings had risen from a preseason rank to 20 to No. 8 in Keith Law's updated list of 2011 Top 50 Prospects.
UPDATE: The Rays have told teams they will not trade Shields this summer, reports Danny Knobler via Twitter. It was never clear Shields was truly available, but perhaps GM Andrew Friedman entertains the though of moving Shields over the winter, instead.
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UPDATE; In his latest tweet on the availability of Shields, ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney notes that the Yankees called the Rays to ask about the right-hander but were told he's not available. The next five words in Olney's tweet say it all: "Presumably to NYY, and BOS."
It's very possible the Rays want to avoid one of their own coming back to burn them, and they may have gone out of their way to send Matt Garza to the National League this past winter, though they did receive a quality package of talent in return.
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UPDATE: If the Rays engage in trade discussions involving James Shields with the Cincinnati Reds, catching prospect Devin Mesoraco may be the key to any package Tampa requests, tweets ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney. It's feasible, however, that the Reds could get a deal done without Mesoraco, especially if Yasmani Grandal, the club's other catching prospect, were included.
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We mentioned earlier this week how the Tampa Bay Rays, because of their limited financial resources, don't fall into a neat category as the trade deadline approaches.
The name of James Shields continues to pop up, and the righthander again demonstrated his value Thursday night when he bested the Yankees' CC Sabathia in a pitcher's duel at Tropicana Field.
The Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals have been mentioned as suitors, but Shields tells Marc Topkin of the St. Pete Times he has no interest in leaving Florida's Gulf Coast. "I love this town. I want to be here. And I think we have a good team," Shields said.
What would it take to land Shields? ESPN.com's Jim Bowden gives his suggestion on what the Reds could offer:
"Reds prospects Devin Mesoraco and Yonder Alonso would be a great haul for Shields. This deal would give the Rays their long-term solutions at catcher and first base and give the Reds a top-of-the-rotation starter to go with Johnny Cueto. Shields has reasonable club options for the next three seasons, so he would not be a short-term rental, which is why the price would be so steep. If the Rays were willing to substitute catching prospect Yasmani Grandal for Mesoraco in this trade, the Reds would have to consider it. The Rays could replace Shields in the rotation with Matt Moore, one of baseball?s best pitching prospects."
Prayers go out to Dave Cameron, one of the better baseball writers out there
.
Spoiler [+]
Here on FanGraphs, we talk a lot about probability and likely outcomes. When making a decision, we think it’s generally wise to understand historical precedent, and to learn from history rather than repeat it.
But, there are times in life that you’re not making a decision, and knowledge of the probability of outcomes just doesn’t help at all. You are just rooting for one specific result, even if you don’t have any control over whether it occurs or not.
I’m now in one of those situations. Last week, I was informed that I have Acute Myeloid Leukemia, a particularly nasty member of the cancer family. History has given my doctors all kinds of data about cure rates and life expectancy, and statistical analysis is helping them decide just what kind of chemotherapy I’ll be taking in a few hours, which I’m really thankful for.
But really, those numbers do nothing for me. I’m not going to be making very many decisions over the next few months. I’m just going to be rooting like crazy for the drugs to work. I need reasons for hope, and I won’t find much of that in the harshness of raw data.
Data isn’t always what is needed. If you’re a Pirates fan right now, does it help you at all to know that your team probably won’t keep this up? You’re not going to be making any decisions that will change the outcome anyway, so why not root for the outcome you want, even if it isn’t statistically probable?
Thats what I’m going to spend the next few months (and years, in reality) doing. Save the odds for the doctors; I’m planning on living a long time. I’m planning on beating this thing. I’m planning on watching the Mariners win a game, and at this rate, that might take years. I want to be around to see it, though, and I just don’t care what the odds say is likely.
For the rest of 2011, I’m unsure of what my involvement here will be. The hospital has wi-fi, so if I feel good, I might write ten posts a day. If the chemo sucks, you might not hear from me for a few weeks. At this point, I just don’t know what is going to happen, but I know the outcome I want, and the fact that the data suggests it may not happen is irrelevant to me.
Statistics can be powerful, useful tools, and at times, they can be critical to understanding what to do. Other times, though, they’re useless, and so, for this situation, I say screw the data; I choose hope instead.
I know many of you are going to want to know how you can help. For now, I’ll just ask that you strongly consider donating both blood and platelets to the Red Cross – they have a critically low supply of both at the moment. Thankfully, my wife is an oncology PA; we have great health insurance and are in the trusted care of her friends and coworkers, so financial assistance isn’t needed at this time. If that changes, I’ll let everyone know, but for now, send prayers in lieu of cash.
See you all when I can. Don’t get too used to not having me around.
Prayers go out to Dave Cameron, one of the better baseball writers out there
.
Spoiler [+]
Here on FanGraphs, we talk a lot about probability and likely outcomes. When making a decision, we think it’s generally wise to understand historical precedent, and to learn from history rather than repeat it.
But, there are times in life that you’re not making a decision, and knowledge of the probability of outcomes just doesn’t help at all. You are just rooting for one specific result, even if you don’t have any control over whether it occurs or not.
I’m now in one of those situations. Last week, I was informed that I have Acute Myeloid Leukemia, a particularly nasty member of the cancer family. History has given my doctors all kinds of data about cure rates and life expectancy, and statistical analysis is helping them decide just what kind of chemotherapy I’ll be taking in a few hours, which I’m really thankful for.
But really, those numbers do nothing for me. I’m not going to be making very many decisions over the next few months. I’m just going to be rooting like crazy for the drugs to work. I need reasons for hope, and I won’t find much of that in the harshness of raw data.
Data isn’t always what is needed. If you’re a Pirates fan right now, does it help you at all to know that your team probably won’t keep this up? You’re not going to be making any decisions that will change the outcome anyway, so why not root for the outcome you want, even if it isn’t statistically probable?
Thats what I’m going to spend the next few months (and years, in reality) doing. Save the odds for the doctors; I’m planning on living a long time. I’m planning on beating this thing. I’m planning on watching the Mariners win a game, and at this rate, that might take years. I want to be around to see it, though, and I just don’t care what the odds say is likely.
For the rest of 2011, I’m unsure of what my involvement here will be. The hospital has wi-fi, so if I feel good, I might write ten posts a day. If the chemo sucks, you might not hear from me for a few weeks. At this point, I just don’t know what is going to happen, but I know the outcome I want, and the fact that the data suggests it may not happen is irrelevant to me.
Statistics can be powerful, useful tools, and at times, they can be critical to understanding what to do. Other times, though, they’re useless, and so, for this situation, I say screw the data; I choose hope instead.
I know many of you are going to want to know how you can help. For now, I’ll just ask that you strongly consider donating both blood and platelets to the Red Cross – they have a critically low supply of both at the moment. Thankfully, my wife is an oncology PA; we have great health insurance and are in the trusted care of her friends and coworkers, so financial assistance isn’t needed at this time. If that changes, I’ll let everyone know, but for now, send prayers in lieu of cash.
See you all when I can. Don’t get too used to not having me around.
his power is there but seems to be hitting solo HR's
