CHICAGO -- The Cubs are loaded with position prospects but don’t have much in the way of pitching prospects. The New York Mets are stacked with great young pitching, but they don’t have much in the way of position prospects.
“Which would you rather have?” one longtime evaluator mused.
It’s an interesting question now, in 2014, in a way that it hasn’t been for many years. Because for the last few decades, the pitcher-to-position player exchange rate -- much like the U.S. versus Canada money exchange rate -- has generally skewed to one side; pitching has generally gotten you more in return than position players.
For that reason, rival evaluators were stunned a few years ago that Seattle would swap elite young pitcher Michael Pineda in a deal for catcher/designated hitter Jesus Montero; it smashed against the grain of recent history. For that reason, the Rays were able to get outfielder Wil Myers in return for James Shields and Wade Davis; the Royals desperately needed pitching to ascend.
But as we move within three months of the July 31 trade deadline, is the exchange rate of pitching and position players the same?
It’s difficult to attach precise numbers on it, but some executives believe the weights and measures are moving in the direction of position players.
Here’s one big reason: Teams can understand and consider the impact of defense far better than they used to, which is why the Orioles targeted outfielder David Lough in a deal for third baseman Danny Valencia. Lough’s offensive numbers didn’t jump out -- he had a .311 on-base percentage in 96 games last season, with 26 extra-base hits in 335 plate appearances.
In defensive metrics, though, he rated in the same neighborhood as Shane Victorino and Carlos Gomez. This increased precision means that more precise value, whether it augments or diminishes, can be attached in a way it would not have five or 10 years ago.
But it’s the decrease in offense in the sport that's having the most impact on the scales; as baseball changes, so does the assessment of particular skills, much in the same way that left tackles gained additional value in the National Football League in the 1980s.
Drug testing seems to have had a major impact on MLB offenses, given the decline in production since 2006.
“I think in some ways we have underestimated the impact of amphetamine testing on offense,” the evaluator said. “A starting pitcher gears his whole schedule toward that one day he pitches, and most teams will fly the starter into a city the day before his game, to have them rested. But the position players can’t do that. They have to go day after day, and if they're exhausted, they stay exhausted. They don’t have the juice [PEDs, like amphetamines] anymore.”
Through the dramatically increased use of sabermetrics over the last decade, there has been a greater focus on specific matchups, exploiting weakness and identifying more efficient defenses, through shifts.
Runs aren't an endangered species, by any means. But they have declined a whole lot.
“I remember when the goal used to be to build an offense that could score 1,000 runs in a season,” one NL official said. “The best teams in the American League -- the Yankees, the Red Sox -- might have a shot at 1,000 runs. Now if you score 800 runs, you’ve got an unbelievable offense.”
During the 2000 season, 17 teams scored more than 800 runs. In 2006, 13 teams scored more than 800 runs. Last year, the Red Sox were the only team in the big leagues to generate 800 runs.
A decade ago, in the 2004 season, 37 players accumulated at least 30 homers. Last year, there were just 14.
In 2004, 28 players posted an OPS above .900, from Barry Bonds to Aaron Rowand.
In 2013, 11 players achieved a .900 OPS.
On the other hand, pitching achievement is being watered down in a way that offensive production was in the 1990s.
During the 2000 season, there were three pitchers with ERAs under 3.00 -- Pedro Martinez (1.74), Kevin Brown (2.5
and Randy Johnson (2.64).
At the start of play today, there are nine different pitchers with an ERA better than 2.00, and there are 39 pitchers with ERAs under 3.00. At the end of the last full season, in 2013, there were 14 pitchers with ERAs of 3.00 or better.
More and more, general managers can feel as though they can get some pitching, just as a decade ago, you could go and find hitters readily; there’s pitching to be found these days.
What are increasingly scarce, on the other hand, are good offensive players.
Jed Lowrie
Joe Camporeale/USA TODAY Sports
Jed Lowrie's hitting ability will make him a highly sought-after free agent next year.
This is really good news for Jed Lowrie, who has an .839 OPS for the first five weeks of the season, as he heads into free agency. It means that the White Sox look like they might have landed one of the great bargains in recent times in their $68 million signing of Jose Abreu. It means that if the Diamondbacks ever decide to wave a white flag on contending in 2014, catcher Miguel Montero and his .370 on-base percentage could be really, really interesting to other teams in the trade market. It means that a good-but-not-great offensive player such as Chris Johnson is going to get paid: His new deal with the Braves is for $23.5 million over three years.
And it means that if you have a system teeming with position prospects, as the Cubs do -- from third baseman Kris Bryant to shortstop Javier Baez to outfielders Jorge Soler and Albert Almora -- then you might possess greater value relative to the market than you did a decade ago.
Consider the question at the top of this story again: Which would you rather have, a farm system loaded with pitching, or a farm system loaded with position players?
A decade ago, the answer was obvious. Pitching ruled.
Now?
The exchange rate has changed, significantly.
Around the league
I have an early-morning assignment, so I can’t get to the links today. Here are a couple of notes from ESPN Stats & Info on Friday’s games:
• Wily Peralta threw eight shutout innings and drove in both of the Brewers’ runs in their 2-0 win against the Reds on Friday.
From the Elias Sports Bureau, Peralta is the first player to throw eight or more shutout innings and drive in all of his team’s runs since Tim Hudson did it for Atlanta on June 20, 2011. It was Peralta’s 12th consecutive start allowing three or fewer earned runs, the third-longest active streak in the majors.
Most Consecutive Starts with three or fewer earned runs
*Active Streaks
Tony Cingrani -- 20
Zack Greinke -- 18
Wily Peralta -- 12
• How Brewers starter Wily Peralta beat the Reds:
A) He threw 78.2 percent fastballs (86 of 110 pitches), his highest percentage in a start this season and third-highest in his career. His average fastball velocity was 95.9 mph, his fastest in a start this season and tied for the second-fastest in his career. Reds hitters were 2-for-21 in at-bats ending with a fastball Friday.
B) Reds hitters were 0-for-5 in at-bats ending with a slider, including four strikeouts. The Reds swung at 12 sliders and missed eight (66.7 percent), the highest miss percentage with the pitch in his career.
C) He threw 46 of his 110 pitches (41.8 percent) on the inner third or frther in, his highest percentage in a start this season. Reds hitters were 1-for-11 in at-bats ending with a pitch in that location.
D) He held the Reds to 0-for-9 in at-bats with men on base, including 0-for-8 with RISP.
• How Arizona’s Bronson Arroyo beat the Padres:
A) The Padres left-handed hitters were 1-for-17 against Arroyo. He threw 81 percent of his pitches to lefties to the outer half or further away, and lefties were 1-for-15 in at-bats ending with a pitch in that location.
B) Padres hitters were 1-for-12 in at-bats ending with a fastball, including 0-for-9 by lefties.
C) He threw 60 of 91 pitches (65.9 percent) in the lower half of the zone or further below. Padres hitters were 1-for-16 in at-bats ending with a pitch in that location, including five of his six strikeouts.
Longest Hit Streaks in Rockies History
2013 -- Michael Cuddyer, 27
1995 -- Dante Bichette, 23
2014 -- Nolan Arenado, 22 (Extended on Friday)
1997 -- Vinny Castilla, 22
• On Friday's podcast, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch discusses the timing of the promotion of outfielder Oscar Taveras, Dan Shulman provides a scouting report for John Kruk's seventh-inning stretch Sunday night, and the Fireball Express of Karl Ravech and Justin Havens breaks down Sonny Gray's early performance.
• We're probably not that far away from the conversation about Derek Jeter's spot in the lineup, with his OPS now barely above .600. There have been times when he looks overpowered at the plate, and he's got three extra-base hits in the first month.
And today will be better than yesterday.