The top of the draft hasn't changed much since my last first-round projection, but the back half has, mostly because teams drafting there are still trying to get a handle on who might be available and sorting out their internal "pref lists." I've included notes at the end on the three teams that don't have first-round picks but still draft on Day 1.
Please note that this covers only the first round, which is just 27 picks because the New York Yankees, Texas Rangers, Atlanta Braves and Baltimore Orioles forfeited their first-round selections by signing free agents from teams that had received qualifying offers. (The Toronto Blue Jays have two first-round picks.)
For a look at my top 100 draft prospects, click here.
1Brady AikenSCHOOL: Cathedral Catholic HS (San Diego)HT: 6-4WT: 200POS: LHP
Analysis: The Astros' situation hasn't changed, and it's not likely to until late on Thursday. They are considering Aiken, Carlos Rodon and Alex Jackson. They are not considering Aaron Nola or Nick Gordon. The Astros will likely take the player who offers the best combination of talent and price, allowing them to spread money to later picks in a draft that's deep in high school arms but that doesn't have a Strasburg/Harper type at the top. | Scouting video Video
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2Carlos RodonSCHOOL: NC StateHT: 6-4WT: 235POS: LHP
Analysis: The Marlins' mix seems to be Rodon, Brady Aiken, Alex Jackson and Tyler Kolek, probably in that order (although I'm not quite sure on that). They sent Pirates GM Neal Huntington one of their extra picks, No. 39 overall, as a birthday gift this week, even though his birthday is in February. | Scouting video Video
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3Tyler KolekSCHOOL: Shepherd (Texas) HSHT: 6-5WT: 250POS: RHP
Analysis: They have been connected to Kolek for a while. The Sox also have interest in Brady Aiken, maybe Carlos Rodon and Aaron Nola. | Scouting video Video
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4Michael ConfortoSCHOOL: Oregon StateHT: 6-1WT: 215POS: OF
Analysis: If Brady Aiken or Carlos Rodon gets to them, that's whom they will take. I don't get the sense right now that they would take Nick Gordon or the injured Jeff Hoffman, and I think Max Pentecost is a severe long shot here. Kyle Freeland and Aaron Nola are possibilities.
The Cubs are also one of several teams hoping for California prep righty Jack Flaherty with a later pick.
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5Nick GordonSCHOOL: Olympia HS, Orlando, Fla.HT: 6-1WT: 170POS: SS
Analysis: They have been on Gordon all spring. Assuming the big three arms are gone, as I project here, I think they go with Gordon over their second choice, Aaron Nola. | Scouting video Video
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6Alex JacksonSCHOOL: Rancho Bernardo HS (San Diego)HT: 6-2WT: 210POS: C
Analysis: I believe Jackson would be their choice over Sean Newcomb, Aaron Nola or any of the prep arms they like. | Scouting video Video
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7Aaron NolaSCHOOL: LSUHT: 6-1WT: 180POS: RHP
Analysis: I've heard they want a college guy who will move fast to help the big league club, which would be Nola, who would be my pick for the first non-reliever from this draft to reach the majors (excluding any contractual side deals).
I know they also like Nick Gordon, and they are on Canadian outfielder Gareth Morgan for their next pick. | Scouting video Video
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8Kyle SchwarberSCHOOL: IndianaHT: 6-0WT: 240POS: 1B
Analysis: This is the first change from my last mock, based on some new intel on Monday; it wouldn't shock me given scouting director Bill Schmidt's history of taking power-hitting catchers who need a lot of work at the position, which didn't work with Pete O'Brien (who didn't sign in 2011) but looks good so far with Tom Murphy (third-round pick in 2012).
I'd previously heard them with Kyle Freeland, so apparently they like players named Kyle.
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9Touki ToussaintSCHOOL: Coral Springs (Fla.) Christian Acad.HT: 6-2WT: 195POS: RHP
Analysis: I've heard them with Toussaint, Jeff Hoffman, Trea Turner and Max Pentecost (whom special assistant Dana Brown left the draft room to see this weekend), although I was told that it's far from a lock that they take any specific player here or at No. 11. | Scouting video Video
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10Sean NewcombSCHOOL: HartfordHT: 6-4WT: 240POS: LHP
Analysis: This pick is probably Newcomb or Trea Turner, assuming someone like Michael Conforto or Alex Jackson doesn't slip. | Scouting video Video
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11Jeff HoffmanSCHOOL: East CarolinaHT: 6-3WT: 190POS: RHP
Analysis: This is a compensation pick for failing to sign 2013 first-rounder Phil Bickford.
If I were GM Alex Anthopoulos -- humo(u)r me for a moment while I inject my own opinion -- I'd take Hoffman and offer him half of the slot figure, $2,888,300, for this pick.
Hoffman has no alternative. He's out until roughly this time next year recovering from Tommy John surgery, so he can't go back to school and improve his draft stock because he won't pitch. He still gets seven figures and can rehab with a professional team that's invested in getting him healthy for the long haul, and the Jays get enough to grab at least one more first-round talent, maybe two, with later selections -- someone like Iowa prep righty Mitch Keller, whom I've heard them on in the second round. | Scouting video Video
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12Kyle FreelandSCHOOL: EvansvilleHT: 6-4WT: 185POS: LHP
Analysis: I've heard the Brewers with a ton of college names, including Freeland, Tyler Beede, Max Pentecost and Jeff Hoffman, plus high schoolers Jacob Gatewood and Derek Hill.
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13Trea TurnerSCHOOL: NC StateHT: 6-1WT: 171POS: SS
Analysis: I could see them taking Kyle Freeland if Turner isn't here or Max Pentecost if both guys are gone.
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14Grant HolmesSCHOOL: Conway (S.C.) HSHT: 6-2WT: 200POS: RHP
Analysis: Also hearing them connected to Northern California outfielders Bradley Zimmer (University of San Francisco) and Derek Hill (Sacramento-area HS), Jeff Hoffman and Luis Ortiz.
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15Tyler BeedeSCHOOL: VanderbiltHT: 6-4WT: 215POS: RHP
Analysis: Like most teams considering Beede, the Angels seem to have a split camp on him internally, but it helps that GM Jerry DiPoto saw one of his best outings, the mid-March matchup against Aaron Nola. They are also on Nick Burdi, Kyle Schwarber and Kyle Freeland. | Scouting video Video
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16Monte HarrisonSCHOOL: Lee's Summit (Mo.) West HSHT: 6-2WT: 200POS: OF
Analysis: The mandate seems to be power bats or polished college arms, as they are considering Harrison, Jacob Gatewood, Michael Chavis, Bradley Zimmer, Tyler Beede and Brandon Finnegan.
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17Brandon FinneganSCHOOL: TCUHT: 5-11WT: 190POS: LHP
Analysis: The Royals want someone who will move quickly, arm (Tyler Beede) or bat (Bradley Zimmer), and the whole world expects them to take Hawaii prep lefty Kodi Medeiros at 28.
They are also among the hottest suitors for Texas prep catcher/quarterback Michael Cantu, but probably not until the second round.
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18Erik FeddeSCHOOL: UNLVHT: 6-4WT: 165POS: RHP
Analysis: Same as last time. I think they would love to get Kyle Freeland down here.
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19Max PentecostSCHOOL: Kennesaw State UniversityHT: 6-1WT: 190POS: C
Analysis: I hear a lot of assumptions that they will take a toolsy prep guy, but scouting director Chris Buckley has taken numerous college guys in the first round, including Mike Leake, Yasmani Grandal and Phil Ervin.
They are also the team I've heard with the most interest in New Jersey prep righty Joey Gatto and Georgia prep righty Spencer Adams.
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20Casey GillaspieSCHOOL: Wichita StateHT: 6-4WT: 238POS: 1B
Analysis: I'm still hearing them on bats only, including Gillaspie, Kyle Schwarber and Braxton Davidson.
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21Luis OrtizSCHOOL: Sanger (Calif.) HSHT: 6-3WT: 220POS: RHP
Analysis: They are after ceiling, I think, including Jack Flaherty and Alex Verdugo, although I wouldn't be shocked if they took a college bat who fell, like Bradley Zimmer, even though I haven't heard them specifically linked to him.
They are also on one of my personal favorites for this range of the draft, Stanford third baseman Alex Blandino, but more likely for one of their sandwich round picks.
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22Derek FisherSCHOOL: VirginiaHT: 6-3WT: 215POS: OF
Analysis: I've heard team president Stan Kasten wants a college guy, whereas the scouting department would prefer to just take the best player available. You can guess which side I'm on.
If they go prep, I've heard them with Derek Hill, Alex Verdugo and Cole Tucker, but they're also open to the right college arm if one appears here. | Scouting video Video
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23Derek HillSCHOOL: Elk Grove (Calif.) HSHT: 6-2WT: 170POS: OF
Analysis: I've heard them strongly with Hill, who would be an unusual (but very good) pick for a team that rarely takes prep bats this high -- just twice in the first round in the past 20 drafts (Cameron Maybin in 2005 and Scott Moore in 2002).
Louisville closer Nick Burdi is a bit of an obvious fit, as they love power arms who can move fast, although one source told me he thought they could just as easily take a college reliever like Jacob Lindgren at No. 63 if one is still available.
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24Bradley ZimmerSCHOOL: San FranciscoHT: 6-5WT: 205POS: OF
Analysis: As I have in previous mocks, I'm assuming the Pirates, whom I haven't heard on anyone specific other than Braxton Davidson, will be opportunistic and take the best player who happens to slide to them.
They're a dark horse on Jacob Gatewood as well. Also, they did a great job getting an essentially free extra draft pick, 39th overall, in a trade with Miami, a selection that brings an extra $1,457,600 in bonus pool value with it, granting the Pirates a significant amount of added flexibility in this draft.
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25Ti'Quan ForbesSCHOOL: Columbia (Miss.) HSHT: 6-4WT: 175POS: SS
Analysis: They also like Monte Harrison and would take someone like Tyler Beede if he happened to slide here.
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26Alex BlandinoSCHOOL: StanfordHT: 6-0WT: 190POS: 3B
Analysis: I've heard they would like a college bat with this pick, with Blandino or A.J. Reed possibilities, but I don't think they would be thrilled in such a scenario. They are in heavy on Louisiana prep catcher Chase Vallot for pick No. 33.
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27Justus SheffieldSCHOOL: Tullahoma (Tenn.) HSHT: 6-0WT: 190POS: LHP
Analysis: I've heard they would like a college bat and a prep arm with their two picks here and at 34, if everything falls perfectly, which things never do so I'm not sure why we're even talking about that.
I had them with Alex Blandino in the last mock. They do like him but might be able to wait on him until their second pick, where they'd also consider A.J. Reed.
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Notes on teams without first-round picks
I've heard Texas, picking 30th, linked to lots of high-ceiling high school kids, including Michael Gettys, Alex Verdugo, Monte Harrison, Luis Ortiz and Ti'quan Forbes. I've heard Atlanta, picking 32nd, linked to Cole Tucker, Braxton Davidson and every Georgia prep prospect, including Spencer Adams. And I've heard the Yankees, picking 55th, linked to a bunch of prep catchers as well as Indiana first baseman Sam Travis. I haven't heard anyone linked to Baltimore because it doesn't pick on Day 1.