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Believe it’s down to both of us. But word is cubs won’t be outbid.No no.
I thought we were.
TF happened?
2024 MLB Thread; RIP Willie Mays & Pete Rose. Dodgers win #8!
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by CP1708,
- Start date
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SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. -- In his annual offseason gathering with the media, Scott Boras, the superagent who has made a tradition out of hyping his clients with a tapestry of puns, described this year's free agent market as a "frenzy for pitching." Seven teams, he said, had already expressed a desire to add at least two starting pitchers from a group that might be large enough to satisfy all of them. It feels far different on the hitting side. The supply there, according to some of the decision-makers present at this week's general managers meetings, doesn't seem anywhere near as pronounced as the anticipated demand.
But one of Boras' most high-profile clients could change the complexion: Juan Soto.
Boras dismissed speculation that Soto would be traded during his widely attended scrum on Wednesday morning, saying his conversations with San Diego Padres officials have led him to believe that the 25-year-old hitting savant would remain a fixture in their lineup in 2024. Later that afternoon, Padres general manager A.J. Preller talked about the possibility of exploring a contract extension leading up to his final season before free agency. But several executives and agents who spoke to ESPN were under the impression that Soto will be attainable via trade this offseason -- or, at the very least, that Preller will very much be open to the conversation.
Said one rival GM: "I don't think they have much of a choice, honestly."
The Padres are not in compliance with Major League Baseball's debt-service ratio, a mandate within the collective bargaining agreement that essentially prevents teams from taking on too much debt, a source familiar with the situation confirmed. Teams frequently fall out of compliance and find a way to get back on track without MLB's intervention. The Padres are expected to eventually do the same. But they probably won't succeed without significantly trimming a payroll that rose to roughly $255 million this past season, third-highest in the industry and roughly 40% higher than the franchise-record number they reached just two years earlier.
The Padres -- chairman Peter Seidler in particular -- have been widely celebrated for their financial commitments within a bottom-third television market. The approach has triggered record attendance and unprecedented local interest. But their competitive-balance-tax payroll in 2023, according to Spotrac, was a little more than $290 million, putting them on track to exceed the luxury tax's second-highest threshold as third-time offenders. The team navigated a disappointing, playoff-less season in the midst of it. And next year, the Padres will be without a TV contract that used to pay them in the neighborhood of $50 million annually, part of the fallout from Diamond Sports Group's bankruptcy proceedings.
The San Diego Union Tribune and The Athletic -- the latter of which first reported that the team took out a $50 million loan to address an end-of-season shortfall -- indicated that the Padres planned to cut payroll by about 20% to get into the neighborhood of $200 million in 2024. If that is indeed the case -- a source with knowledge of the Padres' financial presentation to the league office in September said $200 million wasn't identified as a hard-and-fast goal, though that doesn't necessarily mean the team doesn't aim to get there -- trading Soto might be the only clear path.
Manny Machado (owed $337 million over the next 10 years), Xander Bogaerts ($250 million for 10 years) and Fernando Tatis Jr. ($317 million for 11 years) all have full no-trade protection written into their contracts. So do the Padres' two remaining starting pitchers, Joe Musgrove ($80 million for four years) and Yu Darvish ($78 million for five years). Soto, heading into his final year of arbitration and projected to make in the neighborhood of $35 million in 2024, does not.
But he's also the Padres' best hitter, a man who possesses the type of selectivity and intensity in the batter's box they'd like their entire offense to emulate. Parting with Soto, a mere 15 months after using a robust package of prospects to acquire him in the first place, would be difficult.
"It's never easy to trade for or move elite, talented guys," Preller said. "That's what the best teams have when they win championships. We understand that."
Preller did not publicly admit to the possibility of a trade -- GMs hardly ever do -- but did acknowledge the calculus around Soto could change based on his desire to sign a long-term contract.
"Our position-player group is very strong," Preller said, particularly referencing the decorated foursome of Soto, Machado, Tatis and Bogaerts. "And I think keeping that group together, adding to the pitching, that's one plan."
It's undoubtedly ideal. But it also seems unlikely, perhaps only possible if Soto agrees to the type of extension that would pay him significantly less in the earlier years of his new contract (like Machado did when he signed his decade-long extension in February).
Without identifying a number for 2024, Preller promised an "aggressive payroll" and a similar mindset to the one that has driven the Padres toward national relevance in recent years. In a statement, CEO Erik Greupner wrote that the team "continues to have access to all the resources, financial and otherwise, it needs to field a championship-caliber team for the fans of San Diego."
The Padres' active roster payroll -- a different calculation from the CBT payroll, which uses the average annual value of contracts as opposed to present year values -- is down about $60 million and currently projects to around $190 million for 2024. That's with Snell, Wacha, Lugo, Martinez and relievers Josh Hader and Drew Pomeranz, among others, off the books. But it's without counting the holes they need to fill in order to field a championship-contending team next season -- up to three starting pitchers plus a couple of bullpen arms, potentially an outfielder and likely an additional bat, either at first base or designated hitter.
It's why the belief throughout the industry is that Soto will play elsewhere next season.
Soto's proximity to free agency means he won't bring back anything close to what the Padres gave up to pry him from the Washington Nationals in the summer of 2021. But he might yield a couple of quality starting pitchers, especially when considering who else is available. Outside of Shohei Ohtani, only two of the top 13 free agents on Kiley McDaniel's rankings are position players (Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman). Despite previous speculation, Mike Trout is still seen as unlikely to be traded. The same can probably be said -- at least for now -- about Pete Alonso.
Soto stands as a fascinating left-handed-hitting option for any team that does not land Ohtani or Bellinger. Given the price tags associated with those two, Soto might even become a preferred target. The New York Yankees, a team in desperate need of a left-handed-hitting outfielder, will probably be interested. So might the Seattle Mariners, who seek players who can better control the strike zone. So might the Chicago Cubs, who are unlikely to bring Bellinger back as a free agent. So might a host of others.
Perhaps there's a way for the Padres to keep Soto, plug the several holes that exist throughout their roster and bring their payroll down to a more manageable level. If anyone is creative enough to figure that out, it might be Preller.
At this point in the offseason, though, it's hard to fathom.
But one of Boras' most high-profile clients could change the complexion: Juan Soto.
Boras dismissed speculation that Soto would be traded during his widely attended scrum on Wednesday morning, saying his conversations with San Diego Padres officials have led him to believe that the 25-year-old hitting savant would remain a fixture in their lineup in 2024. Later that afternoon, Padres general manager A.J. Preller talked about the possibility of exploring a contract extension leading up to his final season before free agency. But several executives and agents who spoke to ESPN were under the impression that Soto will be attainable via trade this offseason -- or, at the very least, that Preller will very much be open to the conversation.
Said one rival GM: "I don't think they have much of a choice, honestly."
The Padres currently have only two starting pitchers in their rotation, after Blake Snell, Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo and Nick Martinez became free agents. They need to add depth throughout their 40-man roster. They plan to continue to chase championships. And yet they also need to cut costs, with few other avenues by which to do so appreciably.The Padres are not in compliance with Major League Baseball's debt-service ratio, a mandate within the collective bargaining agreement that essentially prevents teams from taking on too much debt, a source familiar with the situation confirmed. Teams frequently fall out of compliance and find a way to get back on track without MLB's intervention. The Padres are expected to eventually do the same. But they probably won't succeed without significantly trimming a payroll that rose to roughly $255 million this past season, third-highest in the industry and roughly 40% higher than the franchise-record number they reached just two years earlier.
The Padres -- chairman Peter Seidler in particular -- have been widely celebrated for their financial commitments within a bottom-third television market. The approach has triggered record attendance and unprecedented local interest. But their competitive-balance-tax payroll in 2023, according to Spotrac, was a little more than $290 million, putting them on track to exceed the luxury tax's second-highest threshold as third-time offenders. The team navigated a disappointing, playoff-less season in the midst of it. And next year, the Padres will be without a TV contract that used to pay them in the neighborhood of $50 million annually, part of the fallout from Diamond Sports Group's bankruptcy proceedings.
The San Diego Union Tribune and The Athletic -- the latter of which first reported that the team took out a $50 million loan to address an end-of-season shortfall -- indicated that the Padres planned to cut payroll by about 20% to get into the neighborhood of $200 million in 2024. If that is indeed the case -- a source with knowledge of the Padres' financial presentation to the league office in September said $200 million wasn't identified as a hard-and-fast goal, though that doesn't necessarily mean the team doesn't aim to get there -- trading Soto might be the only clear path.
Manny Machado (owed $337 million over the next 10 years), Xander Bogaerts ($250 million for 10 years) and Fernando Tatis Jr. ($317 million for 11 years) all have full no-trade protection written into their contracts. So do the Padres' two remaining starting pitchers, Joe Musgrove ($80 million for four years) and Yu Darvish ($78 million for five years). Soto, heading into his final year of arbitration and projected to make in the neighborhood of $35 million in 2024, does not.
But he's also the Padres' best hitter, a man who possesses the type of selectivity and intensity in the batter's box they'd like their entire offense to emulate. Parting with Soto, a mere 15 months after using a robust package of prospects to acquire him in the first place, would be difficult.
"It's never easy to trade for or move elite, talented guys," Preller said. "That's what the best teams have when they win championships. We understand that."
Preller did not publicly admit to the possibility of a trade -- GMs hardly ever do -- but did acknowledge the calculus around Soto could change based on his desire to sign a long-term contract.
"Our position-player group is very strong," Preller said, particularly referencing the decorated foursome of Soto, Machado, Tatis and Bogaerts. "And I think keeping that group together, adding to the pitching, that's one plan."
It's undoubtedly ideal. But it also seems unlikely, perhaps only possible if Soto agrees to the type of extension that would pay him significantly less in the earlier years of his new contract (like Machado did when he signed his decade-long extension in February).
Without identifying a number for 2024, Preller promised an "aggressive payroll" and a similar mindset to the one that has driven the Padres toward national relevance in recent years. In a statement, CEO Erik Greupner wrote that the team "continues to have access to all the resources, financial and otherwise, it needs to field a championship-caliber team for the fans of San Diego."
The Padres' active roster payroll -- a different calculation from the CBT payroll, which uses the average annual value of contracts as opposed to present year values -- is down about $60 million and currently projects to around $190 million for 2024. That's with Snell, Wacha, Lugo, Martinez and relievers Josh Hader and Drew Pomeranz, among others, off the books. But it's without counting the holes they need to fill in order to field a championship-contending team next season -- up to three starting pitchers plus a couple of bullpen arms, potentially an outfielder and likely an additional bat, either at first base or designated hitter.
It's why the belief throughout the industry is that Soto will play elsewhere next season.
Soto's proximity to free agency means he won't bring back anything close to what the Padres gave up to pry him from the Washington Nationals in the summer of 2021. But he might yield a couple of quality starting pitchers, especially when considering who else is available. Outside of Shohei Ohtani, only two of the top 13 free agents on Kiley McDaniel's rankings are position players (Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman). Despite previous speculation, Mike Trout is still seen as unlikely to be traded. The same can probably be said -- at least for now -- about Pete Alonso.
Soto stands as a fascinating left-handed-hitting option for any team that does not land Ohtani or Bellinger. Given the price tags associated with those two, Soto might even become a preferred target. The New York Yankees, a team in desperate need of a left-handed-hitting outfielder, will probably be interested. So might the Seattle Mariners, who seek players who can better control the strike zone. So might the Chicago Cubs, who are unlikely to bring Bellinger back as a free agent. So might a host of others.
Perhaps there's a way for the Padres to keep Soto, plug the several holes that exist throughout their roster and bring their payroll down to a more manageable level. If anyone is creative enough to figure that out, it might be Preller.
At this point in the offseason, though, it's hard to fathom.
out of all the Pads' superstars, he's the only one without a no-trade clause and the big contract (yet)
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elpablo21
Supporter
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We can't have anything nice
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100% agreed bro. I want him on our staff. Like a younger Masahiro Tanaka. That’s what I read them comparing him too.
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Ohtani sweepstakes are already off to a crazy start
Love it,
Love it,
elpablo21
Supporter
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Tweet from 5 years agoOhtani sweepstakes are already off to a crazy start
Love it,
he's not ending up here 
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Ichiro telling him not to waste his prime there tooTweet from 5 years ago
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Tweet from 5 years ago
Ohh okay. I get it now
I really have to check dates
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I could see him wanting Seattle but I can’t see Seattle being in the top 3 highest offers.
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Not too shabby for this first year in RF
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Houston makes the most sense for Ohtani
Relax.
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That was so smart by Prince...
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Yoko who?
Y’all don’t deserve him
Yamamoto
I’m sorry
It’s really true tho. We don’t. But it always ends up happening.
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You suck, Farhan. The Giants are supposed to be the most aggressive team this offseason.
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He doesn’t deserve to be with the Arsen Judges of the Giants and the world either….Yoko who?
Y’all don’t deserve him
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I didn't realize Volpe was nice like that with the glove.
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The crazy thing is that Peraza is actually better than him defensively.
Yankees are pretty loaded at the SS position defensively.
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When do we expect the first big FA to sign? I hate how baseball free agency drags out it feels like it’s half a season with how the bigger names hold out a bit longer compared to NBA free agency 
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When do we expect the first big FA to sign? I hate how baseball free agency drags out it feels like it’s half a season with how the bigger names hold out a bit longer compared to NBA free agency
Kinda feels like we are all waiting on Shohei...
