FOR THREE DECADES, Major League Baseball treated expansion as its own manifest destiny. If the game was truly America's Pastime, it needed to be everywhere. Almost as soon as the league began expanding from its original 16 teams, the plan was to double its numbers, starting with a move to 18 in 1961. By the time 1998 rolled around, it was well on its way. The
Arizona Diamondbacks and Tampa Bay Devil Rays joined the league for a $130 million expansion fee as MLB's 29th and 30th teams.
More than a quarter-century later, MLB remains a 30-team league. It is the longest period without expansion since the 60-year stretch before baseball went to 18. The lack of expansion is less a failure than a choice: Amid the game's economic boom since the early 2000s, owners didn't want to share MLB's central revenue with two more teams. Interleague play -- which began in 1997 -- allowed for a pair of 15-team leagues, and other money-making sources slaked the financial thirst that previously made expansion so appealing to the game's ruling class.
Slowly -- almost interminably -- that is changing. While no current plans to expand exist, the potential of a nine-figure financial windfall for every existing team reaping its piece of a combined $4 billion-plus in expansion fees for two new franchises -- and the emergence of viable candidates whose merits appeal to owners and the league -- has left the game preparing for a 32-team league as an inevitability, according to owners, high-ranking league sources and other team personnel who spoke to ESPN.
Expansion, those sources said, is not imminent -- and in fact is unlikely to happen until the early 2030s. Creating a franchise out of nothing takes time, and expansion isn't MLB's immediate priority, either -- not amid the fallout from the bankruptcy of Diamond Sports Group, the company that owned local television rights to 14 teams, the unsettled status of the Rays' attempt to build a new stadium and the Oakland A's attempt to abscond to Las Vegas. Not to mention the new collective bargaining agreement to be negotiated after the current one expires in 2026, too.
"It hasn't been much of a topic of conversation," one owner, who was granted anonymity to speak freely, told ESPN. "Everybody knows what's going to happen eventually, but it's so far off that people just haven't focused on it."
That changed recently, when commissioner Rob Manfred
brought up expansion during a media availability in which he announced his planned retirement in January 2029. During his decade-long tenure, Manfred has broached the topic of expansion multiple times publicly but has not formed the committee necessary to formalize the process. He said Thursday he hopes to have two new cities chosen before he leaves the job.
When that eventuality plays out, sources said, it is expected to include one team situated in the East and another in the West, paving the way for realignment that could radically alter the game. If Manfred truly does announce the cities in the next five years -- and though there are more than a half-dozen contenders, two cities have emerged as favorites -- it will be a decision that ranks among the most consequential in the game's recent history.
FOR ALL OF their differences culturally, spiritually and historically, Nashville, Tennessee, and Salt Lake City share plenty in common. Nashville is the 26th-biggest media market in the United States; Salt Lake City is the 27th. Both regularly rank among the United States' fastest-growing cities. And both have positioned themselves to be at the front of the line when MLB finally decides to expand.
Since the formation of the
Music City Baseball group five years ago, Nashville's status as the most favorable East Coast expansion opportunity has been treated by owners as almost a fait accompli, sources said. Salt Lake City has
emerged as a viable candidate in only the past six months, during which the
Big League Utah consortium has made a distinct-enough impression that Salt Lake City has leapfrogged Portland, Oregon, as the top West Coast opportunity in the minds of multiple ownership-level sources. However long the list of potential expansion candidates -- Charlotte, North Carolina; Portland; San Jose, California; Austin, Texas; Vancouver, British Columbia; and Mexico City were among the locations suggested by sources -- Nashville's and Salt Lake City's reputations as front-runners is in large part due to their preparation and planning.
Nashville satisfies a number of characteristics MLB will seek when it expands, sources said. Because of the partnerships Music City Baseball has forged in the industry, the brand it has built with the Nashville Stars -- originally the name of the city's Negro Leagues team -- and Tennessee's existing baseball fandom demonstrated through sold-out games at Vanderbilt and the University of Tennessee, the group's foundation is solid. Add the city's bustling corporate infrastructure, and on paper, Nashville is a tailor-made option, according to three high-ranking MLB team officials familiar with the expansion process.
"Nashville certainly speaks for itself," said John Loar, the managing director of Music City Baseball. "But for entertainment, sports and music to connect, Nashville provides a unique opportunity. It changes the demographics. We've all seen Taylor Swift's impact on football. And when you add the historical component with the Negro Leagues there, it's a complete package."
Music City Baseball recently contracted the real estate development company Mortenson to undertake a stadium site and market analysis, two integral pieces to any eventual presentation to the league. The final step, sources said, would be to secure a general partner who could help cover an expansion fee that, even adjusted for inflation, is expected to be nearly 10 times what Diamondbacks and Rays ownership paid in 1998.
"We're prepared," Loar said. "We understand the market. We're completing the work. We built a brand. And now we're ready to put an ownership group together. And there will be plenty of interest in this market."
Salt Lake City -- with a metropolitan-area population of 1.26 million, which would be the smallest by far among MLB teams -- has made up for its lack of size with the strength of its plan. Led by the Miller family, which owned Utah's only professional team, the NBA's Jazz, for 35 years, Big League Utah is proposing an exceptional mixed-use development that would cost $3.5 billion in private money.
The group
released renderings of the project Thursday. The stadium sits on the edge of around 100 acres the group plans to develop along the banks of the Jordan River. The project has drawn support from Gov. Spencer Cox, Salt Lake City mayor Erin Mendenhall and a wide array of state officials. Even Dale Murphy, a two-time National League MVP and Portland native who long had vouched for the Portland Diamond Project, switched his allegiances to the Utah group.
"We want to be the most prepared market," said Steve Starks, the CEO of the Larry H. Miller Company. "Salt Lake's really compelling now, and it's only going to be better in years to come. We have an ownership group in place, public support and a stadium site. And now we're looking to talk with people who know the game of baseball and can help us build a winning culture if we're fortunate enough to be chosen."
Any concern about the smaller population, one owner said, is allayed by the long history of Salt Lake City supporting its teams. The Jazz regularly sell out their games. Crowds for Real Salt Lake, the MLS team, typically exceed America First Field's listed capacity. And Salt Lake City might even get a test run of what the impact of a big league team could be.
Big League Utah and the Oakland A's have been in discussion about the A's potentially using the Miller company's privately funded Triple-A stadium, set to open in 2025, before their move to Las Vegas. While spending the 2025-27 seasons in Salt Lake would mean the A's forgoing around $70 million a year in television revenue, the prospect of selling out 11,000 or so seats per game appeals enough to owner John Fisher that talks continue, sources said.
In the meantime, Big League Utah continues to ingratiate itself with stakeholders across the league. Officials from Big League Utah have been invited to visit with teams this spring to get a better understanding of what running an MLB franchise actually entails -- the sort of invitation that's not extended blithely.
OF COURSE, sources were careful to caution that plenty can happen in five years to change the calculus of this kind of decision. Showing interest in an expansion team and landing one are not one and the same -- and besides, there are plenty of other issues across the sport that could delay any substantive movement toward a decision.
The first order of business: ensuring that the A's and Rays' stadium deals are done. Immense skepticism surrounds the A's move to Las Vegas, even in the aftermath of a unanimous vote by owners to approve the move, according to one owner and another team president. A teachers union
has filed a lawsuit to divert hundreds of millions of dollars in public funding away from the A's stadium plans. Renderings for the stadium have yet to be released publicly. The
nine-acre parcel on which the A's plan to build their Vegas stadium would rank among the smallest in MLB.
Tampa Bay has hurdles as well. The
$1.3 billion stadium plan -- part of a larger $6.5 billion redevelopment of the site on which the team's current stadium, Tropicana Field, stands -- still needs approval from the city council and county commission. Those votes are expected to take place in May, and if they fail, the Rays could pursue relocation -- perhaps to one of the cities seeking an expansion team.
What comes after the A's and Rays' situations are resolved is unclear. Manfred could form an expansion committee, which would make recommendations to the league's executive council on which cities to award teams. If approved by the council, the candidates would go to all 30 teams for a vote.
The safer move is to wait for one more hurdle to clear. Although MLB has the right to expand, the MLB Players Association must approve a panoply of items integral to the addition of new teams. Among the items that could be on the docket following the expiration of the current collective bargaining agreement following the 2026 season: the mechanics of an expansion draft, the rights of players who eventually are selected in one and the structure of building up a minor league system.
With a signed collective bargaining agreement in hand, the process would accelerate, impediments removed. Owners would choose the expansion cities. Shovels would meet dirt. And within three to four years, new stadiums would be erected and a brand-new landscape would reveal itself.
Whether MLB would opt for four eight-team divisions or eight four-team divisions is not yet decided, sources said. Radical realignment could blow up the league structure that has existed for more than a century. (Imagine a division with both New York teams, Boston and Toronto.) Less drastic measures -- keeping teams within their leagues and moving to four-team divisions -- is an option, as is maintaining the two leagues but with just two divisions in each. Regardless of MLB's decision, two new teams will be there, each trying to replicate the success of the
Colorado Rockies, who made the postseason in their third season of existence.
Baseball's goal of 32 teams would finally be realized -- more than 35 years after it was initially floated. In 1988, by which time MLB had expanded to 26 teams, owners voted to add six more within the next decade. First came the Rockies and Florida Marlins, then the Diamondbacks and Rays, and after that -- nothing.
Soon enough, it will be Nashville and Salt Lake City. Or is it Charlotte and Portland? Or maybe Montreal and San Jose?
The inevitability is real. Expansion is coming to Major League Baseball. In what form, in what cities, in what year -- all of those questions will be answered in time. It's destiny.