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If Ohtani is positioned as both an SP and a hitter he'll for sure be worth a top 3 round pick
2024 MLB Thread; RIP Willie Mays & Pete Rose. Dodgers win #8!
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by CP1708,
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EddieDoyers
formerly eddiengambino
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Haven't done a damn thing at work since the announcement
EddieDoyers
formerly eddiengambino
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Flourish gHaven't done a damn thing at work since the announcement
- Jul 22, 2012
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I wouldn't have either.Haven't done a damn thing at work since the announcement
There's an Angels fan here that's been bragging all day since the announcement. Smh.
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Anyone have ESPN insider and wouldn't mind posting the Keith Law article on the Angels and Ohtani?
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Link? I don’t see it on the website
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I covered Shohei Ohtani's potential as a pitcher and a position player in a post last weekend, which you can read in full if you want more details, but the executive summary is that he's a potential top of the rotation starter but not likely to be an average regular as a position player.
Insider: Law's top free agents | Trade market
His swing is long and he struck out at a high rate even in Japan's NPB, so if nothing else, there would likely be a developmental period for him if he came here, and he's not going to get the 500-600 at bats a year he might require to improve at the plate to get to be average or better offensively. The wrinkle here is that he went to a team that happens to have at least one lineup spot that Ohtani could fill and provide an immediate benefit even if he's still a below-average hitter.
Although so much of the coverage around Ohtani has focused on what he might do as a hitter – which misses the point and has vastly overestimated his present hitting ability – the bigger question for 2018 is how much he might actually pitch. Ohtani made just six starts in 2017 and threw 25 innings. He has never made more than 24 starts or thrown more than 160 innings in any NPB season, and regularly pitched on more rest than he would receive here in a five-man rotation. I'm sure within a year or two we'll see him make 30 starts for the Angels, but for 2018, they shouldn't try to push him to a career high workload (coming off a lost year from ankle and quad injuries). Fortunately for the Halos, though, he doesn't have to pitch every fifth day to help them.
The Angels didn't have a pitcher generate more than two wins of value in 2017 (led by Parker Bridwell at 2.0 WAR, per Baseball-Reference, and even that was boosted by a fluky BABIP), and only had one pitcher, Ricky Nolasco, who qualified for the ERA title, so the bar is really, really low for Ohtani to make the Angels substantially better this year. He could make 20 starts, throw 120 innings, and still be the best pitcher on the staff. It wouldn't surprise me in the least to see him do that and generate three-plus wins for the team, given that whoever he's replacing in the rotation is likely to be at or even below replacement level. Perhaps the Angels can massage his workload to get more innings out of him by having him work on low pitch counts early in the year, but I don't think a forecast for him where he qualifies for the ERA title is realistic given his past workloads and injury history.
Then there's the hitting side of the equation, and you could argue – I suppose I am arguing – that of likely contenders for his services, the Angels were the best fit for him as a possible two-way player, because they had two black holes in the lineup where Ohtani could help even if he's a below-average hitter in 2018. Ohtani can play the outfield, and has plenty of arm for right (of course), where Kole Calhounjust had his worst year as a major leaguer, hitting .244/.333/.392, showing less power in a year when virtually everyone else showed more. Both Ohtani and Calhoun are left-handed hitters, so it's not a platoon situation, and if Ohtani plays right it will be at Calhoun's expense.
However, the albatross in the room is the DH, Albert Pujols, who is done. Pujols was the worst regular in baseball in 2017, costing the Angels nearly two wins with his atrocious .241/.286/.386 line, and at 38 this year, isn't about to get any better. He's been bad since 2012, but this was a new low, as if he got a lot older in a hurry. If the Angels could just forget the fact that they're paying him $114 million over the next four years, they would probably gain two wins just by letting Ohtani take those at bats against right-handed pitching and signing a right-handed hitter, like Austin Jackson, to a one-year deal to handle the rest.
Even if my skepticism over Ohtani developing as a hitter here while only playing part-time is justified, he could probably post a .280-290 OBP and slug .400-plus, which already makes him better than Pujols was last year – and that's a pessimistic forecast. (I think he'll end up with more OBP than that.) I can't imagine the Angels would do that, given the owner's obvious affinity for Pujols, but playing him just raises the level of difficulty for them as they try to return to the playoffs, and there's no need for it. Bench him, release him, whatever you like, just give Pujols' at-bats to other players.
If I were the general manager of a team in the Angels' division or even a team competing with them for a playoff spot, however, I'd be seething over a large-market team signing a player whose performance will easily be worth $20 to 30 million for about a 10th of that amount.
The Angels have been hamstrung by bad financial decisions in the past – Pujols, CJ Wilson, Josh Hamilton – and the result has been an imbalanced roster that couldn't get to the postseason because they didn't have the cash to acquire better players. The Player-Hater clause in the new CBA meant Ohtani was classified as an international "amateur" player, despite five seasons, 543 innings, and over 1000 at bats in the Japanese major leagues, so his bonus was capped by the same limits that apply to teenagers from the Dominican Republic. This outcome was inevitable once MLB refused to waive the rule and let Ohtani come over as a free agent, where he might have gone to the highest bidder, but at least that team would have paid fair market value for his services.
Now the Angels just got a difference-maker for their rotation at a tiny fraction of what he should have cost, and they still should have the money to go make further improvements to their pitching staff and/or upgrade at second base – and with Ohtani in the fold, they have even greater incentive to do so. The Astros, Rangers, Mariners, and … um … I swear there are five teams in that division, it'll come to me … should all be furious that their direct rival just won the lottery.
Insider: Law's top free agents | Trade market
His swing is long and he struck out at a high rate even in Japan's NPB, so if nothing else, there would likely be a developmental period for him if he came here, and he's not going to get the 500-600 at bats a year he might require to improve at the plate to get to be average or better offensively. The wrinkle here is that he went to a team that happens to have at least one lineup spot that Ohtani could fill and provide an immediate benefit even if he's still a below-average hitter.
Although so much of the coverage around Ohtani has focused on what he might do as a hitter – which misses the point and has vastly overestimated his present hitting ability – the bigger question for 2018 is how much he might actually pitch. Ohtani made just six starts in 2017 and threw 25 innings. He has never made more than 24 starts or thrown more than 160 innings in any NPB season, and regularly pitched on more rest than he would receive here in a five-man rotation. I'm sure within a year or two we'll see him make 30 starts for the Angels, but for 2018, they shouldn't try to push him to a career high workload (coming off a lost year from ankle and quad injuries). Fortunately for the Halos, though, he doesn't have to pitch every fifth day to help them.
The Angels didn't have a pitcher generate more than two wins of value in 2017 (led by Parker Bridwell at 2.0 WAR, per Baseball-Reference, and even that was boosted by a fluky BABIP), and only had one pitcher, Ricky Nolasco, who qualified for the ERA title, so the bar is really, really low for Ohtani to make the Angels substantially better this year. He could make 20 starts, throw 120 innings, and still be the best pitcher on the staff. It wouldn't surprise me in the least to see him do that and generate three-plus wins for the team, given that whoever he's replacing in the rotation is likely to be at or even below replacement level. Perhaps the Angels can massage his workload to get more innings out of him by having him work on low pitch counts early in the year, but I don't think a forecast for him where he qualifies for the ERA title is realistic given his past workloads and injury history.
Then there's the hitting side of the equation, and you could argue – I suppose I am arguing – that of likely contenders for his services, the Angels were the best fit for him as a possible two-way player, because they had two black holes in the lineup where Ohtani could help even if he's a below-average hitter in 2018. Ohtani can play the outfield, and has plenty of arm for right (of course), where Kole Calhounjust had his worst year as a major leaguer, hitting .244/.333/.392, showing less power in a year when virtually everyone else showed more. Both Ohtani and Calhoun are left-handed hitters, so it's not a platoon situation, and if Ohtani plays right it will be at Calhoun's expense.
However, the albatross in the room is the DH, Albert Pujols, who is done. Pujols was the worst regular in baseball in 2017, costing the Angels nearly two wins with his atrocious .241/.286/.386 line, and at 38 this year, isn't about to get any better. He's been bad since 2012, but this was a new low, as if he got a lot older in a hurry. If the Angels could just forget the fact that they're paying him $114 million over the next four years, they would probably gain two wins just by letting Ohtani take those at bats against right-handed pitching and signing a right-handed hitter, like Austin Jackson, to a one-year deal to handle the rest.
Even if my skepticism over Ohtani developing as a hitter here while only playing part-time is justified, he could probably post a .280-290 OBP and slug .400-plus, which already makes him better than Pujols was last year – and that's a pessimistic forecast. (I think he'll end up with more OBP than that.) I can't imagine the Angels would do that, given the owner's obvious affinity for Pujols, but playing him just raises the level of difficulty for them as they try to return to the playoffs, and there's no need for it. Bench him, release him, whatever you like, just give Pujols' at-bats to other players.
If I were the general manager of a team in the Angels' division or even a team competing with them for a playoff spot, however, I'd be seething over a large-market team signing a player whose performance will easily be worth $20 to 30 million for about a 10th of that amount.
The Angels have been hamstrung by bad financial decisions in the past – Pujols, CJ Wilson, Josh Hamilton – and the result has been an imbalanced roster that couldn't get to the postseason because they didn't have the cash to acquire better players. The Player-Hater clause in the new CBA meant Ohtani was classified as an international "amateur" player, despite five seasons, 543 innings, and over 1000 at bats in the Japanese major leagues, so his bonus was capped by the same limits that apply to teenagers from the Dominican Republic. This outcome was inevitable once MLB refused to waive the rule and let Ohtani come over as a free agent, where he might have gone to the highest bidder, but at least that team would have paid fair market value for his services.
Now the Angels just got a difference-maker for their rotation at a tiny fraction of what he should have cost, and they still should have the money to go make further improvements to their pitching staff and/or upgrade at second base – and with Ohtani in the fold, they have even greater incentive to do so. The Astros, Rangers, Mariners, and … um … I swear there are five teams in that division, it'll come to me … should all be furious that their direct rival just won the lottery.
tl;dr: Ohtani pitching >>> Ohtani hitting, but he hasn’t thrown many innings. Pujols is done. Angels got a steal.
- May 10, 2009
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Appreciate it man. My damn insider ran out last month and I didn't wanna pay regular price
- Nov 20, 2003
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I hate being a mariners fan
- Feb 23, 2010
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Appreciate it man. My damn insider ran out last month and I didn't wanna pay regular price
No problem. Even though he’s not playing in Los Angeles proper (
) I’m excited to see what he’s about, at least I can watch his games on cable. Has Scioscia said anything about this yet? Plans? Pujols to the bench...?
- May 10, 2009
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No problem. Even though he’s not playing in Los Angeles proper (
Haven't heard anything from the front office or Sciosca yet but I imagine they will soon. Gonna be interesting to see how many at bats he takes away from Pujols bc we know Albert can't play 1B too much idc what they say ab him trying to get in better shape for that
nick.
Supporter
- Dec 27, 2012
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omg he's gonna be a Yankee
- May 8, 2005
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TROUT
OHTANI
UPTON
if in that order, that is not a fun 3 outs to get...
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Lord imagine Stanton and Judge back to back goodness 
Angels trade Maitan and some pieces to the Marlins for Stanton please
Angels trade Maitan and some pieces to the Marlins for Stanton please
- Feb 23, 2010
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Haven't heard anything from the front office or Sciosca yet but I imagine they will soon. Gonna be interesting to see how many at bats he takes away from Pujols bc we know Albert can't play 1B too much idc what they say ab him trying to get in better shape for that
That’s crazy that Pujols was literally the the worst regular last year
any chance he decides to go home and be a family man?
- May 10, 2009
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- May 10, 2009
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Angels should offer Calhoun and prospects for Stanton and Prado
nick.
Supporter
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