Every March, I post a list of players who I think are primed for significant upticks in performance for the coming MLB season. These are players who already have lost their rookie status but either haven't performed at all in the majors or perhaps just haven't lived up to expectations. I ranked prospects based on their expected 2019 impact in early February, so I've excluded those players from this list.
Last year's list was ... not great, Bob. American League Cy Young winner
Blake Snell was my best pick, and
Xander Bogaerts also did what I hoped he'd do in a healthy, full season. I still think some of those guys are good breakout candidates for 2019 --
Max Kepler for sure,
Nomar Mazara again,
Byron Buxton forever,
Lucas Giolito now that he's healthy and has his velocity back -- but for this column I'll stick with new names.
Rafael Devers, 3B, Boston Red Sox: I've long boosted Devers as a prospect, ranking him in my top 10 prospects in all of baseball multiple times, even arguing that the Red Sox were right to keep him and trade
Yoan Moncada in the
Chris Sale deal. Devers has enormous raw power and has always had a solid idea of the strike zone, posting high contact rates throughout the minors even though he was always young for where he played, and has shown adequate walk rates so far in the majors, although I think there's a lot more patience to come there. He also had a flukishly low .281 BABIP given how much hard contact he made last year; his Barrel rates -- a Statcast-derived stat based on a batted ball's exit velocity and launch angle --- were right there with those of
Gleyber Torres and
George Springer, who both hit over .300 on balls in play.
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Devers will play this entire season at 22, so he's already got a year-plus of major league experience at an age when college draft picks are just entering their first full year of pro ball. I might be a year early on this one -- I've had that happen a lot before -- but I believe in Devers' swing and approach enough to lead with him this year.
Corbin Burnes, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers: It's a bit counterintuitive to predict a big leap for Burnes, who was very effective in 30 relief appearances as a rookie last year, but who also benefited from an unsustainably low BABIP (.232). There are some structural reasons beyond his performance last year that contribute to my belief in Burnes' potential to be an above-average starter, however, beginning with the Brewers' decision to break him into the majors in relief. That was much more common 30 to 40 years ago for young pitching prospects -- Earl Weaver preached this in his book "Weaver on Strategy" and practiced it with young Orioles pitchers -- but has fallen out of favor in more recent years.
Burnes also has growth potential with both his high-spin-rate curveball and his changeup, which he'd almost completely shelved while working as a fastball/slider guy out of the pen. I'm bullish on
Brandon Woodruff, who's also on the bullpen-to-starter track with Burnes, but I think Burnes has more upside given his four-pitch arsenal.
Jorge Soler, OF, Kansas City Royals: He did break out last year, at least partway, before a broken foot ended his season in June; that has been a big part of the story of Soler's career, as he has always had trouble staying healthy. He has very quick hands at the plate and plus bat speed; last year he hit nine homers in 61 games, a 24-homer pace I think he can match or even exceed if he can play a full season in 2019. While he's going to swing and miss some, he makes such good contact when he does put the ball in play that I think he can pick right up where he left off last year and carry it for a full season.
Jorge Lopez, RHP, Kansas City Royals:Lopez has had a terrible couple of years since his 2015 breakthrough season in Double-A, including a terrible stint in hitter-friendly Colorado Springs that derailed his progress through Milwaukee's system and the ongoing medical issues of his young son, Mikael. The trade that sent him to Kansas City last year gives him not just a change of scenery but a new opportunity to work as a starter. Lopez has always had enough stuff to miss bats, with a plus fastball and above-average curveball, and he has somewhat limited hard contact, but his strikeout rates in the majors haven't lined up with his stuff just yet.
Matt Strahm, LHP, San Diego Padres:Strahm has had a rocky few years but looks ready to take on a bigger role for the Padres this season, likely in their rotation. Acquired in 2017 in a midyear trade that sent some relievers to Kansas City in exchange for Strahm and prospect Esteury Ruiz, Strahm has developed into a real four-pitch pitcher who showed three above-average offerings last year while working as an opener for San Diego.
He had plus velocity as a starter in the minors and showed a knockout curveball, while his changeup has really come on since the trade and was his most effective pitch in his stint in the majors in 2018. He also has added a slider in the upper 80s that gives him a true fourth offering. He has regained the control he showed as a starter in Double-A before the Royals called him up, throwing two-thirds of his pitches for strikes last season for the Padres. And San Diego is a generally great place to pitch, even more so now that the Padres look set to field some very good defensive players at multiple spots.
Jurickson Profar, 2B, Oakland Athletics:I'm pretty sure I've listed Profar before, somewhere in the distant past. But two years lost to shoulder surgery plus two years slowly making his way back to regular playing time and production have gotten us to this point, where his 2018 season -- .254/.335/.458, in his first-ever season qualifying for the batting title -- was a new high point. I think there's another gear in here of average; he had a .269 BABIP last year, yet makes hard contact, and is still doing so this spring. Playing in Oakland might rob him of some home run output, but I project a much higher average and OBP and 40-plus doubles.
Jesse Winker, OF, Cincinnati Reds:Winker broke out last year in half a season, then got hurt. I mention him here simply to say that I think what he did in those 89 games -- hitting .299/.405/.431 -- was real, and if anything, I think he can hit for more home run power, getting to 20 homers this year if he plays a full, healthy season.
Albert Almora Jr., CF, Chicago Cubs: If I felt like Almora would walk 45 times this year, I'd feel more strongly about him as a breakout candidate. But he has tweaked his swing a little bit so he can drive the ball more, which is crucial since he's a low-OBP guy who has never hit 10 homers in a pro season. I think he gets well into double digits this year, and his glove with 12 to 15 homers and a batting average over .300 (since his BABIPs have generally been above average) would make him a substantially better player.
Franmil Reyes, OF, San Diego Padres:Reyes has big-time power and has been able to hit a good fastball for a while now, but his approach tightened up after a midyear demotion to Triple-A, during which he made some real adjustments to his approach, and it showed. He hit .318/.385/.548 in the last two months of the season with better breaking ball recognition and a better two-strike approach. Reyes was really a platoon bat last year, doing virtually nothing against right-handed pitchers, but this improved approach looks like it will help him remedy that, as he won't be as vulnerable to right-handed breaking stuff. The Padres' outfield might be crowded but with 500 at-bats Reyes should approach 25 homers without any significant drop in his average/OBP from 2018.
A few more names to consider ... but in whom I don't have the same conviction:If I felt confident
Dominic Smith would get 400-plus at-bats this year, I'd list him, but with Pete Alonso right behind him, a poor start could cost Smith the playing time. It did help Smith's cause that he showed up this spring in the best shape of his life (no, really) and has resumed making hard contact in spring training. ...
Scott Kingery has had a rough spring and isn't taking better at-bats yet, not enough to tout him as a breakout candidate, although I still see the bat and foot speed as well as above-average power to make him a good regular if he works the count better. ... The Pirates have made changes to their coaching staff and to their hitting philosophy, so I feel like someone there is going to have a breakout year, especially in the power department, but I don't feel strongly enough about any single player to put my imprimatur on someone. I might have just picked
Gregory Polanco, but with him held out from games while he finishes up his rehab from shoulder surgery, I don't have any tangible support for that position. ...
Brandon Lowe, who just signed a six-year extension with the Rays, should get to 20-plus homers with regular playing time, although I think it's going to come with a lot of strikeouts and probably a low-.300s OBP. ... I'm still a
David Dahl fan, but I have no idea about his durability going forward after the major back injury that wrecked his 2017 season and the series of injuries (including a broken foot) that limited him in 2018. If he gets 500 at-bats this year, look for 25-plus homers and an average around .300 with plus defense in left.
