2024 NBA Draft Thread - the hawks might be on the clock

Wouldn’t mind Sochan or Agbaji at 11.


Gotta dangle Randle to the Kings 1st to see if they bite.
 
pmatic said:


Moheezy Moheezy amitt5504 amitt5504
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The only one that stings was Fultz. But he was the consensus #1 pick. What happened with him was unfortunate. As for the other picks, you can say the same with any team for late 1rst rounders.

Also, we have had 5 GMs during Embiids tenure. I won't fault Morey for any of that. Gotta look ahead instead of behind.
 
Homie acting like the Kings didn’t just goof w/ Haliburton. Or that Julius still has fans in that org.

Aint eem goona go any further cuz nothing Boston related is worthwhile.
 
fac3 tak30v312 said:
NBA isn’t as straight forward as playing basketball anymore. There’s some things now that having an ex-NBA dad can teach you when in comes to playing in the arena. Kevin Love tried to talk about it.. Just look at Delonte now
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What about glen rice jr?

Having an NBA dad is helpful but it definitely doesn’t guarantee anything
 


Hollinger's top 23 was posted previously (in this link), so I'm just posting Hollinger's 24-75 below in two separate posts.

Tier VII: The upside plays

24. Ousmane Dieng | 6-8 | SF | New Zealand Breakers

That “6-8” is an estimate and might be on the low side, since Dieng didn’t do measurements at the combine.

There is a lot of reason to be skeptical about Dieng. Historically, players who have struggled in Australia have, not shockingly, also struggled in the NBA. Probably the closest comp would be R.J. Hampton, who was picked in the 20s two years ago after a blah season in Australia and has yet to establish himself as a rotation-caliber player in the pros. Hampton’s season was actually quite a bit better than Dieng’s, though. The argument can be made that Dieng is not very athletic, not much of a shooter and doesn’t have notably good feel … so, um, what exactly is he?

The retort is that he’s a big long wing with a guard’s handle, one who can possibly become another Nic Batum or more … even if he often looks more like another Isaac Bonga. Dieng can use his combo of handle and length pretty effectively and got more adventurous with it as his season went on Down Under. While he was disastrously bad for much of the year, his splits over the final month tell a tale of solid improvement.

Dieng is also one of the youngest players in the draft at 19. While I wouldn’t select him over any of my top 23 players, at this point in the draft, hitting on a giant wing who can dribble seems significantly more valuable than the return anywhere else.

25. Malaki Branham | 6-4 freshman | SG | Ohio State

The draft world tends to over-index on bucket-getting when the more telling information for NBA purposes is in every other column of the stat sheet. Branham fares poorly in almost all of those areas, which is why it’s tough to put him in my top 20.

That said … he can score, and that may translate enough to offset his other weaknesses. Branham scored 30.8 points per 100 possessions in Big Ten games as a freshman, and did it efficiently (62.8 true shooting percentage). He displayed a believable jump shot (41.3 percent from 3 on low-ish volume, 83.3 percent from the line and heaps of pull-ups) and the size and length to hit shots over defenders.

He’ll need to score because Branham’s defensive clips are … not great. While his size and length package should theoretically make him a defensive obstacle, his slides were notably slow and opposing dribblers had a pretty easy time turning the corner against him. He also wasn’t a disruptive or anticipatory defender, with a pretty shockingly low steal rate for a first-round guard prospect.

Nonetheless, a guard with his size and shooting ability has relatively abundant pathways to becoming somewhat useful, and there’s at least some upside here that he blasts off as a scorer. I think the odds on that package are overrated at the moment, but I’d rate Branham as a better prospect than, say, Cam Thomas a year ago, and think he’s a worthy gamble in the 20s.

26. Kennedy Chandler | 6-0 freshman | PG | Tennessee

It’s weird to label a 6-0 guard an “upside play,” but the echo chamber on Chandler that he’s just a backup point guard kind of glides past an important question: What if he’s not? Chandler is small, and that will be a problem at the next level, but unlike some other small guards of recent vintage, his defense is an undeniable strength. He’s a handsy defender who pilfered an eye-opening 4.1 steals per 100 possessions in SEC games, and he surprises shooters with his ability to leap and contest shots.

Weirdly, his biggest weakness on defense might just be his lateral movement. He makes an effort to get into the ball and makes sure to force dribblers to beat him into the paint rather than rising up over him for a jumper .. but the first slide is beatable, and because he has to crowd dribblers, they can get a step on him surprisingly often.

Offensively, Chandler’s stroke doesn’t look broken but he still needs to shoot the ball better (60.6 percent from the line — yuck), and he had moments as a shot creator where he had trouble getting separation. Nonetheless, he’s a good passer, plays well in transition and seems likely to benefit from playing in the NBA’s more open floor. That he was one of the best players in the SEC as a 19-year-old is a pretty strong data point in his favor, as was his stellar steal rate (often a great indicator stat for college to pro success).

27. Justin Lewis | 6-6 sophomore | SF | Marquette

Lewis can be frustrating at times: A little too chilled out on defense, a little too jump-shot dependent on offense. I just can’t see how I could rank him any lower than this. He’s 6-6 with an enormous 7-2 wingspan, has a strong frame that should allow him to play four in almost any matchup if his team wants to size down, and he had a 32.5-inch standing vertical.

The basketball stuff went OK too. Lewis shot decently and on relatively high volume, and is very comfortable shooting off the dribble against smaller defenders. He rebounds well and can be a very good defender when in a stance and engaged.

The big thing that puts him at the tail end of my first-round grades, however, is that every team needs switchable forwards who can make an open shot. Lewis doesn’t even need to get that much better to fill in a back-end rotation spot, and he has upside to be quite a bit better.

28. Julian Champagnie | 6-6 junior | SF | St. John’s

Here’s one you probably weren’t expecting. Champagnie isn’t getting much first-round buzz, but I think he’s a name teams need to consider outside the lottery. Champagnie has a bit of a thin frame and can become a little too enamored of jab-step jump shots, something he converts at a respectable rate (34.8 percent from 3 for his career) but maybe that shouldn’t be the focal point of his game. He played a bit as a volume scorer for a weak St. John’s team, but that won’t be his role as a pro.

Instead, Champagnie profiles as a 3-and-D guy who can provide some juice as a secondary rim protector and disruptor. On the ball he likes to get into dribblers, even smaller ones, and used his length and anticipation to nab 3.1 steals per 100 possessions. That was slightly juiced by St. John’s use of pressing defenses, yes, but he’ll pressure the ball even against smaller players and is capable of blocking his own man’s shot. Sometimes that gets him beat — good crossovers leave him grasping for air — but I think he’ll be able to stay with NBA wings.

Tier VIII: Soooo many shooting guards

29. Johnny Davis | 6-4 sophomore | SG | Wisconsin

The high-lottery hype for Davis earlier in the year seemed excessive. He was arguably the best player in the Big Ten this year and still fairly young, but beyond that, there are legit questions about how what he does translates to the next level. An excessive reliance on tough shot making and pull-up 2s reveal some refinements that will be helpful at the next level … and a worry about the lack of easy baskets and the iffy jump shot. Davis shot 30.6 percent from 3 and 79.1 percent from the line this season, and the eye test on his jumper is that it starts breaking down the farther from the basket he gets, especially when he has to shoot off the catch.

Davis earns kudos defensively because he competes, fights through screens, rebounds at a high rate and can jump. I’m worried about his feet, though, and that’s the most important piece. He was able to bail himself out at times by using his leaping ability to get challenges on shots where he was beaten to the spot, but he was a step slow laterally. The tape showed plays where even non-prospects were able to turn the corner against him, and he told on himself a bit with the amount of cushion he needed to give to offset his feet.

Overall, he’s still probably the best bet in a sea of blah shooting guards at this point in the draft, with decent odds of becoming a rotation-caliber player and some starter upside if all his midrange stuff translates. But apparently, I have a much harder time getting excited about him than my peers.

30. Trevor Keels | 6-3 freshman | SG | Duke

Keels is built like a tank, had a reasonably good freshman year that included a high steal rate, and his biggest weakness (shooting) is the one thing that is most fixable at the NBA level. He made 31.2 percent from 3 and 69.3 percent from the line, but I wouldn’t say his shot is broken. However, he isn’t a natural distributor either; his assist-turnover ratio from his freshman season reflects that he spent some time at the point, but once he heads to the cup he’s thinking shot. Keels also isn’t a great leaper, relying a little too much on beastball around the basket, and one wonders how that will translate as a pro.

Keels is getting some love for his defense in other descriptions I’ve seen, and I’ve gotta say … I must have been out of town for those games. Keels has a strong body, but I’m not sure he can stay in front of anyone at the next level. He didn’t really get into the ball but still gave up a ton of straight-line drives and wasn’t great at contesting shots at the end of the play either.

That said, let’s not get lost in the weeds here. He doesn’t turn 19 until August and turned in a very solid season as a starter in the ACC. He has a chance, especially if the shooting improves. Also, the Ethan Strauss Memorial Fat Is Potential In Disguise (FIPID) factor comes into play here, as Keels measured with 13.5 percent body fat at the combine.

31. Christian Braun | 6-6 junior | SG | Kansas

Kansas won the national title and Ochai Abgaji was its star, but of the team’s draftable wings I actually like Braun a bit better. He’s not the shooter or scorer Agbaji is, but is bigger and younger, and pops off the floor athletically. Kansas played a conservative defensive scheme so he wasn’t heating up the ball a lot, but he’s very good at challenging shots and even blocking jump shots. At 6-6, he could slot up to the three at times.

Braun can’t rank higher because his shot isn’t completely trustworthy, a low-released push that could use more air under it. He shot 38.6 percent from 3 this past season but on low volume; he’s not letting it rip unless it’s an open catch-and-shoot. He also isn’t the most instinctive or polished finishers around the basket. He’s better in transition, where he can use his athleticism more easily, and he passes willingly. Between all that, he has a decent chance of becoming a rotation-caliber wing with enough size to play some three.

32. Dereon Seabron | 6-5 sophomore | SG | NC State

I think everyone is sleeping on this guy a bit. There are reasons to doubt him: He only measured 6-5, he shot 25.4 percent from 3 and 69.4 percent from the line in two college seasons, he’s just OK as a passer, and he blocked four shots all of last season.

With all that said … the ability to get to the rim on your own steam in the halfcourt is a pretty important skill, and Seabron has it. His college tape is him getting to the cup with either hand and using long strides to finish at the rim, over and over and over again, and he did the same thing at the combine. His team will need to trust putting the ball in his hands because he’s not spacing the floor, but he can be a plus creator if he develops any kind of shot at all.

Seabron’s defensive tape is pretty good too. He has good size but still will get up on guards, and he rudely dispossesses weaker players. NC State felt confident enough to leave him on an island against Purdue‘s Jaden Ivey, which was probably a stretch; Seabron can be beaten laterally and needs to take better angles, but was a plus one-on-one defender in college who should be fine at that end as a pro.

33. Gabriele Procida | 6-6 | SG | Fortitudo Bologno

In an international field where nearly every alleged prospect for this draft spent the year trashing his draft stock with underwhelming performances in third-tier leagues, Procida stands out as the exception.

We can still nit-pick some things: The Italian League isn’t very good anymore, he wasn’t the best player on the team, etc. But Procida did put up solid numbers as a 20-year-old in a real pro league, and he’s a 6-6 wing with some athleticism (backed up by solid combine testing numbers) and consecutive seasons of shooting 38 percent from 3 under his belt. It’s not hard to see his pathway to NBA viability.

Procida will need to shoot the 3 better and more frequently to make the cut as an NBA sniper, but he’s not that far away and he can be an overseas stash for years if need be, making his selection a promising idea for such teams as the Grizzlies, Thunder and Spurs that are awash in extra draft picks and have some in the 20-35 range.

34. Ochai Agbaji | 6-5 senior | SG | Kansas

The defining case of this year’s shooting guard crop: A really, really good college player who doesn’t offer a lot of excitement for how his game might translate up. At the most basic level, he’s a 6-5 guard who can shoot 3s and won’t beat himself, so getting to back-end-rotation-caliber usefulness wouldn’t be shocking. Anything beyond that would be gravy; there’s just not a lot in his profile that hints at that caliber of player.

In particular, the “indicator” stats of rebounds, assists and steals are all worryingly low for a guard, especially a senior. Despite a 6-10 wingspan, it was hard to find evidence of its use on the floor.

Agbaji can shoot, hitting 40.7 percent of his 3s in 2021-22 on high volume, but don’t get carried away: He’s also a 71.4 percent career foul shooter. As a creator off the dribble, I don’t see much, although he was able to get to pull-ups fairly effectively.

On defense, it’s a similar story. He’s not impactfully as far as getting hands on balls or flying out at shooters on shot contests, and he’s not capable of true ball pressure. However, he’s a good feet-slider who works hard to keep dribblers in front of him and plays angles and scouting reports; it was notable in the tape that he’d crowd some players much tighter than others based on their ability.

Overall, he’s a classic “won’t kill us” guy. But I’m not sure there’s much upside either.

Tier IX: The weirdos

35. Nikola Jović | 6-10 | PF| Mega Basket

It seems like everyone might have gotten out over their skis here. Jović is a 19-year-old forward with perimeter skills and big man size at 6-10, all of which paints an alluring package. He just started shooting 3s this year and made 31.5 percent of them, plus 71.8 percent from the line. Not Steph Curry, exactly, but a nice building point.

The problem is that he played in a not-particularly-great league and … wasn’t good. I’d be hard-pressed to name a player who posted stats this underwhelming in the Adriatic League who became anything of note. Other players from this league who became significant pros (Dario Sarić, Jusuf Nurkić, Nikola Jokić, Bogdan Bogdanović, etc.) were among the better players in this league pretty much immediately, and the NBA of the early 2010s was at a higher level than it is right now.

That doesn’t necessarily exclude Jović from success — players progress at different rates and sometimes they emerge from unexpected corners — but it does make betting on it a much iffier proposition.

36. Kenneth Lofton Jr. | 6-6 junior | PF | Louisiana Tech

The FIPID All-Star of this draft (see Trevor Keels above), Lofton measured at 280 pounds and 15.2 percent body fat at the combine … and people who’d seen him all year remarked on how much better his body looked.

Yes, he has a bit of work to do on that front. But even carrying around the extra tires, Lofton can play. He was arguably the best player at the G League Elite Camp and carried that over into a good game at the combine before shutting it down. In particular, he showed perimeter skill in those games that he didn’t get to display at Tech, where he played almost exclusively inside and only made four 3-pointers all year. He was beating defenders with long strides out of jab-and-go moves, making passes off the bounce and showed a soft touch in the paint.

I can’t rank him higher than this due to concerns about his defense. Lofton had decent rates of steals and blocks but is going to need to get in better shape to have a chance at guarding anyone along the perimeter. Nonetheless, I think he’s a great dart throw in the second round.

Lofton, incidentally, is not related to the former baseball star of the same name.

37. Walker Kessler | 7-0 sophomore | C | Auburn

Kessler is a legit 7-footer with a 7-4 wingspan, and he blocked everything in sight. A 19.1 percent block rate in the SEC? And 10.0 blocks per 100 possessions? Are you kidding me? Kessler can get to shots with his left or right hand, and sometimes got them with two hands. He wasn’t as comfortable defending in space but he was still pretty good and Auburn was clearly okay with him switching — the dribbler needs to clear a ton of space to get out of his flight path, but Kessler doesn’t change directions fluidly so sometimes he got cooked.

The more vexing part is finding an offense role for him. I don’t see a major threat as a rim runner, but that’s probably his best role; he also dabbled in 3-point shooting but only made 10 of his 50 attempts. Between that and the fact that he plays the least valuable position, it’s hard to get too excited about him in the top part of the board. But he is a freaky shot blocker, and that’s worth something.

38. Ziga Samar | 6-4 | SG/PG | Fuenlabrada

Ziga Samar and Huge Besson are the same age and (roughly) the same size. Samar played in the best domestic league outside the NBA (the Spanish ACB) and put together a pretty strong season, while Besson played in the Australian NBL (not nearly as strong) and was barely adequate. Somehow, Besson got first-round draft hype and an invite to the combine, while Samar was largely ignored.

Samar did keep his name in the draft, however, and hopefully teams have followed up with homework after the fact. It’s possible his shooting numbers this year are an outlier (47.1 percent from 3 this year on 51 attempts, after poor results in previous seasons), that his athletic limitations are too much for the NBA level, or that his rampant fouling torpedoes things (he averaged more than one every seven minutes this past season, which is pretty wild for a guard).

That said, it seems a little batty that a guy with a 7.1 Pure Point Rating in Spain would just get completely ignored like this. At worst, he’s one of the best stash options in the draft.

39. John Butler | 7-0 freshman | SF | Florida State

Are you feeling lucky? He’s 7 feet tall, 18 years old and he shot 39.3 percent from 3. He also made 11 free-throw attempts the entire season and is invisible when he turns sideways. Butler weighed in at an impossible-seeming 174 pounds at the combine, and surely filling him out will be part of any team’s project in taking him on.

Make no mistake, he is a project, but his 3-point shooting offers some pathways to having on-court viability while teams wait. Butler isn’t super athletic, and his motor and feel are both average at best, so there is a lot that has to happen here, but the end game of a 7-foot small forward may be too alluring to pass up in the 30s.

40. David Roddy | 6-5 junior | PF | Colorado State

Grant Williams and P.J. Tucker were the best things that ever happened to Roddy, giving teams a vision of how they might use his rare 255-pound frame and nearly 7-foot wingspan.

Like those two players, Roddy is strong, with thick legs and a wide chest, and knows how to use his frame. He can be a bit slow laterally but will use his strength to cut off angles without fouling; he’s not going to reach or hand check. Although short, Roddy is pretty good at exploding up to challenge shots and will surprise some guys. His lack of height becomes more problematic closer to the rim, where opposing post players could shoot over him with impunity.

Offensively, I’m a believer in Roddy’s catch-and-shoot game (he shot 43.8 percent from 3 this year on low volume, but having watched him warm up before Colorado State’s NCAA Tournament game, I can assure you it wasn’t a fluke). However, he doesn’t bring a lot else to the table right now, and that was on display during his struggles at the combine.

41. MarJon Beauchamp | 6-5 | PF | G League Ignite

Beauchamp has been the recipient of much first-round chatter, which I think is going a bit overboard for what projects to be an energy guy. Beauchamp shot 27.3 percent from 3 and 71.8 percent from the line while mostly playing as an undersized four and was also the same age as most of the sophomores in this draft. It’s not like he destroyed the G League either, registering a 14.7 PER in 24 games.

Beauchamp has a 7-foot wingspan that he can use to stronger effect defensively and on the glass, and that’s why he may be able to get away with playing four in the pros. More skill development could eventually allow him to play three, which is where he would add the most value if he can pull it off.

Tier X: Disappointing one-and-dones

42. JD Davison | 6-3 freshman | PG | Alabama

I get why teams may be down on Davison — he was a hot mess this past year, shooting erratically and not really running the team the way you’d like. That said, the difference between his athleticism and the other available options at this point in the draft is pretty jarring, with a 9.8 percent rebound rate from the point guard spot and multiple instances of easy levitation around the rim.

Davison is also capable of making some incisive passes and running a team; he just tries to do all kinds of crazy stuff on top of it, and the result was a sky-high turnover rate (6.1 per 100 possessions in SEC games).

Davison’s shooting is another question mark. He made 30.8 percent from distance while pushing a line-drive shot from in front of his chest that didn’t always come off his hand clean. He’s going to need a lot of work to make opponents respect his perimeter game, but if he becomes even remotely average, he’ll blow by defenders and open up the rest of his game.

43. Jean Montero | 6-3 | PG | Overtime Elite

We’re at the point in the draft where buying a mystery meat tilts from a negative to a positive, which takes us to Montero. He wowed me when I saw him at the Basketball Without Borders in 2020, which would turn out to be one of the last times I’d see actual basket players in person for quite a while. Since then he’s stalled out a bit, playing this season for Overtime Elite with mostly younger players and not dominating to the extent you’d think.

Montero had a solid Hoop Summit game, but was injured early in the draft combine on-court potion and therefore couldn’t raise his stock there. Measuring 6-1 without shoes, he has to play point guard, and has refined his instincts to play more as a passer and less of a scorer. However, concerns remain about his ability to defend and to finish in traffic, and for a guy with a rep as a shooter, he didn’t shoot all that well this year.

Overall, it’s possible the draft world turned too negative on him, considering he was perceived as a top-20 pick a year ago. He’s a pretty good athlete, he tore up the Spanish second division as a 17-year-old in 2020-21, and he won’t turn 19 until a week after the draft. He’s a good second-round flier.

44. Caleb Houstan | 6-8 freshman | SF | Michigan

Houstan is the more tolerable version of Patrick Baldwin (see below) in some respects, a theoretical big wing shooter who played better basketball than Baldwin this past season but perhaps offered fewer hints of upside.

While Houstan wasn’t actively lighting things on fire the way Baldwin did, he failed to make an impression as a shooter (35.5 percent from 3, 78.3 percent from the line), rebounded like a guard and shot 44.4 percent on 2s in Big Ten games. There were some nights when he was just completely invisible, such as his zero-point, zero-assist, “just cardio” night in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

That said, the pieces here are probably worth taking a shot on late in the draft. Houstan is big and his shot isn’t broken. He has just enough perimeter skill to talk yourself into him developing more and becoming a real weapon with his pull-up game. He’s not a plus defender but he’s not toast either; he can stay solid, fight through screens and use his size.

Houstan declined an invite to the combine, so we don’t know his real height and length measurements, but his listed height of 6-8 is believable. That combine refusal also created buzz that he has a promise from some team.

45. Bryce McGowens | 6-5 freshman | SG | Nebraska

McGowens is a tough eval because he played on a horrid Nebraska team where he had to be the main shot creator as a freshman in the Big Ten. He also didn’t help himself with how he played, seemingly in love with floaters despite infrequently converting them, and barely registering at all on defense. I don’t trust his shot eye-test-wise, and he made only 27.4 percent from 3. Finally, he’s dangerously thin and will need to fill out physically.

That said, there’s a toolset here. McGowens can handle the ball and get to the cup, skills that should be better advantaged in an NBA setting, and he drew a ton of fouls. He also hit 83.1 percent from the line, a positive harbinger that he can work out the last few kinks in his low-release delivery.

Overall, the chance for wing shot-creation and half-decent shooting overrides some of the other worries (could you maybe try getting a stop? Once?) at this point in the draft, especially given McGowens’ relative youth.

46. Peyton Watson | 6-7 freshman | SF | UCLA

Watson has an NBA body but has yet to combine it with NBA skill, which is why he struggled to get on the floor for UCLA in his freshman season. He only played 405 minutes and didn’t make much of a case for getting more, posting an 11.2 PER on 39.4 percent true shooting. Watson has to both fix his outside shot and refine his finishing and decision-making in the paint.

The signs are more encouraging on the other side of the ball, where he averaged 5.6 “stocks” per 100 possessions and was a plus rebounder, but he will need to cut back on the fouling (7.6 per 100). The search for big wings who can defend multiple positions is ever-present in the NBA, and that’s why somebody is very likely to roll the dice in the second round on developing Watson.

47. Max Christie | 6-4 freshman | SG | Michigan State

Christie looks the part as a long-armed wing (6-9 wingspan) who moves well and has a nice shooting motion, but the results have yet to catch up to the eye test. Christie’s selling point is as a 3-and-D wing, but the defensive tape isn’t that great. He looks mobile at first glance, but he rarely disrupts the ball, gives too much cushion and still gets beaten by straight-line speed relatively often.

Offensively, he had a limited role, but his play in that role completely justified the decision not to play through him more. Even while being able to cherry-pick what shots he took, Christie made only 31.7 percent of his 3s and 42.9 percent inside the arc. He also had a shockingly poor steal rate (0.9 per 100 possessions in Big Ten games) for an allegedly athletic guard.

The “athletic” part seems very real, though, and Christie’s combine measurements could help his case. He jumped 32.0 inches from a standstill, ripped off a 3.07 sprint, and his plus wingspan helped offset a disappointing height measurement (6-4¼ without shoes).

48. Patrick Baldwin | 6-9 | SF | Wisconsin-Milwaukee

A tall wing with some perimeter skill who teases with talent in between bouts of sleepwalking, Baldwin comes from a proud draft lineage that includes Austin Daye and Kevin Knox. I don’t really see what the excitement is here, but I’m fascinated to see which team will take the plunge. The idea of Baldwin — a big wing with a 7-1 wingspan and deep shooting range — is alluring, but the reality on the court last year was borderline disastrous.

Even in a poor conference, Baldwin was a below-average player, and in ways that don’t augur well for an NBA translation. Athleticism? Heh. He had the worst standing vertical and worst sprint time of any non-center at the combine, and the worst max vertical of anyone there.

The reason to draft him is a belief that his shooting can come around. Baldwin launched 64 3s in his 11 college games but only made 26.6 percent of them; there is a belief based on his AAU play that he’s capable of much better than this. If so, there could be a stretch four hiding in there somewhere.

49. Jaden Hardy | 6-4 | SG | G League Ignite

Hardy is still being talked about as a first-round pick, apparently, even though he was one of the worst players in the G League a year ago. He played 21 games and posted an 8.5 PER and was a traffic cone on defense.

Hardy’s shot is a definite plus, a tight flick off the shoulder that he gets into relatively easily off the dribble, and he has a pretty strong frame. However, that’s where the positives end. His shot selection bordered on disastrous, he’s not an elite athlete and rarely got all the way to the basket, and he pretty clearly isn’t a point guard. He also didn’t do the measurements portion of the combine, and I’m wondering if he’s shorter than his listed 6-4.

Is there something to grab on to here with the youth, the shooting and the frame? Perhaps it’s worth the bite of the apple by this point in the draft, which is why I’ve listed him here, but I’m having a hard time getting excited.

Tier XI: Some more bigs

50. Ismael Kamagate |6-11 | C | Paris Basketball

A classic rim-running five who can block shots and finish in the lane and will never, ever be asked to make a jump shot, Kamagate put together a solid season in a B-minus league as a 21-year-old, including blocking over 6 percent of opponent shots for a second straight season.

He’s slightly built and doesn’t really rebound like a five, plus his instincts as a roller are pretty questionable if he has to do anything besides dunk. Historically, European bigs who became anything in the pros have usually crushed a league like this by their age-21 season; Kamagate didn’t meet that bar. Meanwhile, French leagues historically aren’t great places for player development, either, which puts a dent in his stashability. That said, he has a size-bounciness package that should get his foot in the NBA door, so he’s worth a late-second-round lottery ticket.

51. Christian Koloko | 6-11 junior | C | Arizona

A massive 7-5 wingspan will get you noticed, especially given the improvement Koloko made this season. He had a 10.3 percent block rate and showed enough feel as a distributor to make you not completely hate him as a potential elbow operator. Koloko also made 73.5 percent of his free throws; there is at least a shred of shooting touch to build on. All this probably adds up to a third center with backup upside. That’s not a sexy return on a draft pick any higher than this point, but Koloko certainly is good enough to warrant selection.

52. Jaylin Williams | 6-9 sophomore | C | Arkansas

Williams is smart and a good passer, but too often it felt like he was trying to game the system. He was amazing at taking charges, but that was basically his entire defensive repertoire; can he be something more than Mo Wagner in the NBA? Defensively he would play a hundred feet off the ball and wasn’t great laterally even in closer quarters; any switch against an NBA-caliber guard will result in him conceding on off-the-dribble 3s unless he really tightens up his footwork.

Offensively, he’s crafty, but he’s also undersized, not a great finisher, and only a career 25.5 percent shooter from 3. I have him on here out of deference to his passing and overall basketball IQ, which could end up translating in unexpected ways.

53. Kofi Cockburn | 6-11 junior | C | Illinois

An old-school, broad-shouldered center who just wants to mash in the paint, Cockburn did enough at the combine to show how his game could translate in a backup center role. He can overpower opponents on the glass (20.3 rebound rate in the Big Ten), draws heaps of fouls with his physicality, and can effectively body opposing bigs away from the rim. Defense will be an issue — he has to play in a drop coverage and isn’t much of a shot blocker — but at this point in the draft, he’s a decent gamble.
[/quote]
 
Tier XII: The best of the rest

53. Andrew Nembhard | 6-3 senior | PG | Gonzaga

Nembhard rocketed up draft boards after dominating the final day at the combine, but let’s not get crazy here. We also have four years of game tape from Florida and Gonzaga to see what he is and what he isn’t.

Nembhard can run a team and makes few mistakes, but offensively, his 34.3 percent career shooting and lack of blast-off quickness are unlikely to turn him into a plus weapon. Relative to a player like Tyus Jones, for instance, his college stats are far more underwhelming at both sides of the floor, although Nembhard did boost his steals rate last season and become a more respectable shooter. It’s not crazy to squint and see a Monte Morris-type upside here, but I still think the more likely endgame is as a third point guard.

54. Jabari Walker | 6-7 sophomore | PF | Colorado

Just one of those guys with a nose for the ball. Walker is 6-7 with a 6-10 wingspan and a 28-inch no-step vertical, which should put him at a disadvantage against other power forwards. But despite average tools, he’s a freakishly good rebounder, one who snagged 21.1 percent of missed shots in Pac-12 games this season. While he subsists heavily on second shots and averaged two turnovers for every assist, there’s also enough floor-spacing gravity here (39.9 percent career on a decent total of attempts) to suggest Walker can have value as a bench energizer.

55. Luke Travers | 6-7 | SF | Perth Wildcats

One of my favorite stash candidates, Travers played in the G League Elite Camp and showed enough feel as a passer and secondary ballhandler to think he can make it if his shot straightens out. To this point that’s been the biggest hold-up in him turning into a Joe Ingles-type distributor from the forward spot, because Travers can put it on the deck with either hand and make plays off the dribble. He also rocks a glorious blond mullet straight out of a 1984 Ratt video, which makes every play twice as impressive.

56. Dom Barlow | 6-9 | PF | Overtime Elite

Somebody should select this guy with one of the final picks of the draft and sign him to a two-year two-way; I think he could become a real player in time, but it’s not going to be overnight. He looked lost at times in the draft combine games, but he’s 6-9 with a solid frame and a 7-3 wingspan, and only just turned 19. His performance at OTE this season didn’t suggest insta-stardom or anything, but he was one of the better players there and he may fill out enough to end up being a full-time five.

57. Matteo Spagnolo | 6-4 | SG | Vanoli Cremona

Relative to his fellow Italian Procida (see above), Spagnolo is a better shooter and a year younger, but wasn’t as impressive production-wise, is two inches shorter and a worse athlete. Spagnolo’s 2021-22 shooting splits are eye-popping (44.1 percent from 3 and 86.1 percent from the line), but it’s a small sample (675 minutes, just 68 3-point attempts). and he’s never shot at quite this level before. All of his makes him much better as a stash candidate than as somebody to draft onto a roster, and a good pick late in the second round for teams inclined to wait.

58. Jamaree Bouyea | 6-0 | PG | San Francisco

There’s a lot to nit-pick here if you want. Bouyea is 6-0 in socks, he’ll be 23 at the end of the month, he’s more of a scorer than a distributor, and he shot 33.7 percent from 3 in college. Also, on tape, it was more like Jamaree Blowby, with a reaction time to his first slide measured in lunar years.

And yet … at this point in the draft, an athletic guard with shot-creation and ball-thieving skills seems like a decent proposition. Bouyea is short and can look heavy-footed at times, but he also had an impressive steal rate, sports a 6-7 wingspan and uncorked a 32.5-inch standing jump. He needs to improve his outside shot but has the ability to get to pull-ups with relative ease, as he showed in a 36-point outburst in his team’s NCAA Tournament loss to Murray State.

Tier XIII: My top two-way guys
Only 58 players will be selected (Miami and Milwaukee forfeited their second-round picks, taking us down from the usual 60), but the after-party is gonna be lit. Teams value their two-way spots more than ever and will be on the phones with undrafted players trying to fill those slots as soon as the draft ends. Here are some of my favorites who didn’t crack the top 58 above:

59. Tyrese Martin | 6-6 senior | SG | Connecticut

Martin had a mostly unremarkable season at UConn, but showed enough versatility at the G League Elite Camp and then the combine to give himself a decent chance of getting drafted. He’s an iffy shooter, but his size, handle and defense, combined with an impressive 39-inch max vertical, give him some pathways toward rotation-ish usefulness as a backup at either wing spot. Martin also rebounds unusually well for a wing, with a 13.0 percent rebound rate in Big East games, checking another box in the positive column.

60. Iverson Molinar | 6-2 junior | PG | Mississippi State

I’ve liked Molinar from the word go because he has first-step quickness that you can’t teach, and that skill tends to blossom in the more open NBA game. He also has a 6-8 wingspan and a 39-inch max vertical.

That said, there is some work to do here. Iverson has improved as a distributor but still plays as a scorer too much; his outside shot also looked increasingly contorted this year as he slumped to 25.2 percent from 3. He’s a career 83.1 percent free-throw shooter so one hopes the 3-ball is salvageable; he has no chance without it. Finally, for a quick, athletic guy, Molinar doesn’t make dribblers feel him much at the defensive end. He needs to be a more active and handsier defender at his size.

All this may be worth a two-way investment because of his potential as a bench scorer; he can scoot.

61. Darius Days | 6-6 senior | PF | LSU

Days is undersized for the four and had a 24-inch no-step vertical, so we’re not off to a good start here. But it’s not that hard to picture him as a high-IQ, no-mistake role player stretching the floor off a team’s bench. He shot 35.3 percent from 3 for his career, but on very high volume for a four, and was crafty enough defensively to nab 3.0 steals per 100 possessions in SEC games.

Given the evolution of the position toward smaller, stretchable, switchable players, and the ability of Days’ 7-1 wingspan to let him play bigger than his height and hops would suggest, he may have a chance.

62. Isaiah Mobley | 6-10 junior | C | USC

I’m a sucker for bigs who can pass because I’m willing to bet their feel level wins out over other limitations. Mobley isn’t nearly as talented as his more famous younger brother, but his 5.8 dimes per 100 possessions and nearly 2:1 assist-turnover rate jump off the page for a college big man. The tape shows several advanced deliveries in the mix, hinting at usefulness off the elbows and, perhaps, above the arc if his nascent 3-point game keeps developing.

Mobley will need to take advantage of the same ability to read the game on the other end, where he was a subpar rebounder even for a college five and a limited rim protector. Between that and his blah athleticism, we’re probably talking about backup five upside, but there are worse two-way gambles you could take.

63. Keon Ellis | 6-4 senior | SG | Alabama

Ellis was invisible on the court at the combine and measured just 6-3½ in socks (Alabama listed him at 6-6), which probably nuked his chances of getting picked in the top 40, but there is still a 3-and-D package to sell here. Defensively he’s pretty solid — he gets into the ball, has active hands and often took the challenge of checking small, fast guards. He lacks strength in close quarters and sometimes succumbed to quick changes of direction, but he won’t’ be a target on that end of the floor.

Offensively, I don’t love the optics on Ellis’ stroke, but for his career, he made 37.1 percent from 3 on high volume and 83.1 percent from the line, so maybe I should shut up. He needs to show more vitality off the dribble, but he finished chances when he got them.

64. Aminu Mohammed | 6-4 freshman | SG | Georgetown

A one-and-done who isn’t getting much attention despite undeniable athleticism and a 6-11 wingspan, Mohammed may not have enough skill to get by at his height. He held his own on the court at the combine, however, and his rates of rebounds and steals were pretty remarkable.

What wasn’t remarkable was how he did on self-created shots; Mohammed shot only 36.7 percent on 2s in Big East games, and while some of that owes to the general train wreck that was the Hoyas 2021-22 season, Mohammed also has to refine his drives and finishes and hit the open man more often. His shooting is another question mark, at 31.0 percent from 3 on low volume. More often than not, a guy like this tops out as a good G League player, but if the shooting and decision-making come around, Mohammed has more upside than most of the players in this range.

65. Tevin Brown | 6-5 senior | SG | Murray State

I was pretty impressed with Brown when I saw him in person, just because he knows exactly what he is as a player, and that thing has a good chance to translate into a limited NBA role. Brown can shoot with deep range, converting 38.6 percent of his career 3s and owning good footwork coming off pindowns and into catch-and-shoots. He’s much less of a threat off the dribble, although he can get out for the occasional highlight finish on the break and showed good secondary creation as a passer.

Brown has a skinny frame, weighing in at 175 pounds at the combine, but he was a solid enough defender and held his own on the glass. The “3” part of his potential “3-and-D” package is more NBA-ready, and at 24 years old, he’s gonna need to make his mark quickly. But he has a chance.

66. Hyunjung Lee | 6-7 junior | SF | Davidson

Lee is a great two-way lottery ticket because his potential as a movement shooter with size offers obvious comps to the two-way successes of Max Strus and Duncan Robinson in Miami.

Lee pretty clearly patterns his game after Klay Thompson, moving off the ball for back-cuts and catch-and-shoots but rarely putting it on the deck on his own. He did this well enough to shoot 39.7 percent from 3 for his career on monstrous volume (11.5 3 attempts per 100 possessions) and 82.3 percent from the line; he can shoooooot, y’all.

Lee also measured a legit 6-7 with a 6-9 wingspan at G League Elite Camp, making it easier to envision him playing the 3 and thereby softening concerns about his footspeed. He also rebounded like a 4 in the Atlantic 10 and has a pretty solid build.

That said, his feet are the big question here, because the lateral quickness is suspect, to say the least. The game seemed to zip past him at G League Elite Camp, although he still managed to uncork 15 3-point attempts in 38 minutes, and he’ll be a popular target for opponents.

67. Jordan Hall | 6-7 sophomore | SF | St. Joseph’s

Hall struggles to score and isn’t much of an athlete, but he’s 6-7, 20 years old and can handle the ball, providing enough intriguing quirkiness to justify a late second-round flier or, more likely, a post-draft call for a two-way. Hall shot 35.8 percent from 3 in his two seasons, and the 3 off the dribble seems to be his go-to because he’s such a shaky scorer inside the arc (41.7 percent on 2s — yikes).

The intriguing part, however, is that Hall also can pass and rebound, with per-100 possession stats nearly in triple-double territory. The passes didn’t always hit their mark — he also had a huge turnover rate, and his role was undoubtedly too high for comfort because he was forced to be the go-to guy for an 11-19 team. But scouts have been talking up Hall since the middle of his freshman season; there is something to build on here.

68. Grayson Murphy | 6-3 senior | PG | Belmont

Pardon me while I pull a name out of left field here. I’ve been intrigued by Murphy ever since I saw him as a freshman, against some guy from Murray State name Ja Morant. I’m not sure whatever happened to that guy, but Murphy is now a 23-year-old, fifth-year senior.

At first, his case isn’t exactly overwhelming. He averaged 7.7 points per game in the Ohio Valley Conference, and he might not really be 6-3 (we don’t know — he wasn’t even invited to the G League Elite Camp, let alone the combine). He’s a 32.2 percent career 3-point marksman on low volume and 57.5 percent from the line.

And yet … he is a good test case for the idea that we spend too much time looking at the scoring columns with prospects and not enough looking at the others. Murphy is an absolute stat-sheet stuffer, rebounding like a power forward, dropping two and a half dimes for every turnover, and swiping an amazing 4.3 steals per 100 possessions.

69. Scotty Pippen Jr. | 6-0 junior | PG | Vanderbilt

Pippen is small, makes too many turnovers and isn’t a great shooter. The first thing isn’t fixable, but one of the other two needs to change for Pippen to establish himself as an NBA point guard. Either is possible, and neither is likely.

If he can turn the corner, though, there are some things to like here. Pippen is small but will heat up the ball on defense (3.7 steals per 100 in SEC games) and was a constant pest in the combine games. He gets downhill to the basket easily, and while his decision-making at that point needs to improve, he draws heaps of fouls (a ridiculous 16.3 free-throw attempts per 100 possessions in SEC play). He’s not a shooter, but the shot isn’t what you’d call broke neither; he made 34.3 percent from 3 for his career.

Most guys like this have NBA careers measured in 10-day increments, but on a two-way, Pippen has a chance to be more if he can clean up some of his rough edges.

70. Alondes Williams | 6-4 junior | PG | Wake Forest

Has the ACC player of the Year ever gone undrafted before? Williams is huge for a point guard, has a good first step, rebounds like a wing and can jump. However, he’s an erratic shooter (27.0 percent from 3 for his career) and too often dribbled into crowds and/or threw passes into the seventh row. He’s capable of some impressive looks when he’s running well, and when he gets downhill he can use his size and hops to finish at the cup, but the overall package ends up being pretty inefficient.

Williams is an amazing story, coming from a backup role at Oklahoma to improbably win ACC player of the year for one of the league’s lesser lights, but he’s 23 and will need to play very differently as a pro. I’m not sure this story ends in more than a two-way.

71. Michael Foster | 6-8 | PF/C | G League Ignite

Foster got lots of reps in his gap year with the Ignite, and he was … serviceable. Fine. He can score a fair amount for a big, with a solid midrange game that could stretch out to the 3-point line in time. However, he is an average athlete and is rather undersized for the five at the NBA levels, which would force him into defending fours … which I’m not sure he can really do.

Foster has some shot-blocking instincts and is pretty long for his height (7-0 wingspan); that and a real 3-point shot might make him threatening enough to establish a career as a frontcourt reserve. He’s 19 and was a decent player in the G League last year, which is a good starting point for him to become … something. What that something is remains to be seen.

72. Justin Bean | 6-7 senior | PF | Utah State

Bean has one giant red flag: he is 25 and will turn 26 the first month of the season. I only know this because I was his backup in high school.

Seriously, Bean is one of the oldest straight-from-college rookies the league has ever seen, thanks mostly to a two-year Mormon mission, and that likely nukes any chance of somebody using a draft pick on him.

But as a two-way, I think he might be able to help a team immediately. Bean can really jump and is a tremendous out-of-area rebounder, he shot 46.5 percent from 3 (on low volume) and 80.0 percent from the line, and he has the mobility to defend along the perimeter. Obviously, nobody is signing him for long-term upside, but contenders with an open two-way should look at him.

73. Orlando Robinson | 6-10 junior | C | Fresno State

I have trouble getting excited about centers, but Robinson has a 7-4 wingspan and enough skill to be at least somewhat interesting as a developmental big. He can be a bit slow and plodding defensively, but he made 37 3-pointers in 36 games and knows what he’s doing on the block. While I have a hard time talking myself into him being anything better than mediocre on defense, there is enough here offensively to take a flier on him.

74. Kam McGusty | 6-4 senior | SG | Miami

McGusty is the perimeter answer to Justin Bean, a 24-year-old “veteran” who turns 25 this fall, and was one of the best players in the ACC this year in his sixth – yes, sixth – college season. McGusty had a disappointing G League Elite Camp and measured an inch shorter than his listed height, which combined with his age might have been enough for teams to write him off.

They shouldn’t, though. He shoots better than his 34.0 percent career mark would lead you to believe, and is very comfortable attacking bigs off switches and getting into pull-ups off the dribble. He’s a strong, handsy defender, too, posting high steal rates each of the past two seasons, and his solid frame should help him at the next level. As with Bean above, I think a contending team in need of immediate help should look at him for a two-way spot.

75. Bryson Williams | 6-9 senior | PF | Texas Tech

He’s 24, so again, don’t get your hopes too high. He’s a limited athlete, too, which means he probably has to be a stretch four rather than a five. That said, Williams can probably help somebody right now on a two-way. He has a 7-2 wingspan, finishes catches around the basket and added enough 3-point juice last season (41.7 percent, on reasonable volume) to have legitimate stretch possibilities. He was arguably the best player at the G League Elite Camp, earning his way into the main combine, and last season was one of the key players on the nation’s second-best defense.
 
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