2024 NBA Draft Thread - SUMMER LEAGUE

The best players out of this draft is going to be Dillingham and Buzelis. Im not saying you can justify them being the top 2 picks, but from the tape those guys have the offensive games to be pluses on a NBA team in a meaningful way. Maybe off the bench for a playoff team
 

NBA Mock Draft 2024: What are Atlanta Hawks up to? That mystery hovers over this week

It’s officially 2024 NBA Draft week.

The Atlanta Hawks hold all the cards with the No. 1 pick, and league sources are still unsure of their plans. The Hawks seem to have several potential options as they sort through a draft class that does not have typical quality at the top.

As one NBA executive told me recently, this class, unlike most, has an inordinate number of eye-of-the-beholder talents. Do you believe Zaccharie Risacher has significant athletic upside? Do you think Donovan Clingan can stay on the court in the playoffs? Do you believe Alexandre Sarr’s offensive game will keep developing? Do you think Stephon Castle will become at least a competent perimeter shooter? Do you think Reed Sheppard’s size is a significant hindrance? These are the top five players on my board, yet questions like these have dominated front-office discussions. How key decision-makers answer them — as well as several others regarding the players I rank below those top five — will determine the outcome of this draft.

NBA teams largely agree this is a down class through the top 10. Many, however, believe the middle of the first round, going to the No. 20-25 range, features intriguing options before the class levels out again in the second round. Most of the intriguing wings are likely to be taken near the top of the class, with that middle portion of the first round littered with big men and guard depth that could yield several long-term NBA players. I anticipate fewer All-Stars this season than the six or so that come from a normal draft class, but the number of players who stick in the NBA may be about the same.

One other note: If the board breaks right Wednesday, we could see a solid number of draft-night trades as teams look to lock in the players they want. Some teams see value in trading back. Others see potential diamonds in the rough, especially in that aforementioned No. 10 to No. 25 range, in which some interesting players are projected to slip on draft night. In that vein, I’ve added a few trades to this mock. This was a necessary adjustment to account for the Clingan effect, where a number of teams below the No. 3 to No. 6 range will be looking to trade into that area to acquire him if he’s still on the board.

Here’s where we stand a couple of days before the draft. (Ages listed are as of draft night; heights listed are NBA Draft Combine or G League Elite Camp measurements without shoes, when available):

1. Atlanta Hawks
Zaccharie Risacher | 6-8 wing/forward | 19 years old | JL Bourg
The conversation around the Hawks has been fascinating to track. Despite general manager Landry Fields saying the team is comfortable selecting at No. 1, league sources continue to get the impression Atlanta is open to offers for the right deal.

None of the league sources The Athletic has consulted has a good feel on the direction they’ll take. Clingan was the name linked with the Hawks most often last week, with many league sources noting he might fit better as a potential trade-down target. However, since Risacher’s workout in Atlanta last week, his name has been raised increasingly often in conversations around the league. Sarr’s name occasionally comes up as well, but that could be an attempt to convince a trade up from Washington, the team most often linked with Sarr. Of course, that same logic could apply to any prospect; if other teams sense some doubt the player they want will be available — be it Risacher, Clingan or Sarr — they may be more apt to reach out to gauge Atlanta’s price for dealing the No. 1 pick.

I have Risacher for now if Atlanta keeps No. 1, but buckle up for a wild ride. If the Hawks do trade down in some fashion, Clingan would be a potential target, and they couldn’t move down all that far to secure him. At the same time, league sources tell The Athletic it may be difficult for Atlanta to move off the pick, if only because the talent differential among the top six or so picks is considered to be minimal.

2. Washington Wizards
Alex Sarr | 7-0 big | 19 years old | Perth Wildcats
League sources continue to connect Sarr to Washington if he falls to No. 2. The Wizards, under Monumental Basketball president Michael Winger and general manager Will Dawkins, are in the market for upside swings, according to league sources. Dawkins comes from the Oklahoma City Thunder tree, where positional size, skill and on-court intelligence reign supreme. The Thunder selected another perimeter 7-footer at No. 2 (Chet Holmgren) during Dawkins’ tenure there, and it’s possible Dawkins sees Sarr as a different, yet stylistically similar player. At 7-feet tall with long arms and remarkable athleticism, Sarr fits that bill if his development comes together.

Sarr is a defensive difference-maker who covers a ton of ground with his arms and quick feet, much like Memphis’ Jaren Jackson Jr., Cleveland’s Evan Mobley and Brooklyn’s Nic Claxton. Sarr flies around off the ball and can thrive in a variety of ball-screen coverages, ranging from switching to drop. If he’s waiting at the rim and opponents challenge him, odds are he’ll contest the shot, if not outright block it.

The other end of the floor is the question. Sarr has shown potential as a rim runner in ball screens, but for the most part, his offensive game involves pick-and-pops, and he doesn’t make great screen contact. He’s not a high-impact defensive rebounder, which has led to some questioning if he can consistently play center in the NBA. If Sarr indeed requires a more physical center alongside him, his limited offensive game might be exposed. He’s best served playing next to a floor-spacing five, unless he can become a dangerous perimeter shooter himself.

3. Houston Rockets (from Brooklyn Nets)
Reed Sheppard | 6-2 guard | 20 years old | Kentucky
The Rockets don’t have a “need” among their young core positionally, which allows them to explore several avenues. Unsurprisingly, league sources continue to believe the Rockets will explore trading it with a goal of adding assets to their cache of draft picks to further facilitate a potential star trade down the road. With all of their young talent, in addition to this pick and control of the Nets’ picks in 2025 (swap), 2026 (outright) and 2027 (swap), there might be no team better positioned to make a star trade already. However, acquiring additional assets in a trade-down scenario may allow the Rockets to facilitate further deals without surrendering what they already have or even potentially acquire more win-now talent this summer.

For now, I’ve gone with Sheppard. His stock is polarizing, with more analytically inclined organizations seeing him as a No. 1 pick contender and others viewing him as a late lottery pick due to his lack of size. At this point, it seems likely he’ll be drafted somewhere within the top half of the lottery. The Rockets can afford to take a chance on him because he is an ideal connective piece for their young talent. He’s an elite shooter, which is the one skill this young core lacks. While Jabari Smith Jr. can hit from the perimeter, Jalen Green has had stretches of great shot making and Cam Whitmore has the potential to fill it up, teams don’t guard Tari Eason, and neither Alperen Şengün nor Amen Thompson is a proficient marksman.

Sheppard also thinks the game at an elite level and quickly moves the ball to get everyone involved. He averaged 12.5 points, 4.1 rebounds and 4.5 assists while shooting an absurd 53.6 percent from the field and 52.1 percent from 3 last season. He also blocked nearly a shot per game and grabbed 2.5 steals.

4. San Antonio Spurs
Stephon Castle | 6-6 wing | 19 years old | Connecticut
League sources have connected Castle to the Spurs for a couple months now, and it seems clear that the organization, in some capacity, likes the 6-foot-6 guard from Connecticut. The Spurs are interested in Risacher, according to league sources, and Sheppard’s name has come up in recent days as well.

Castle is likely to come off the board somewhere between the No. 4 and No. 8 picks. He’s a tremendous defender with size and attributes that help teams win games. He got publicity at the NBA Draft Combine for saying he views himself as a point guard, but NBA teams largely classify him as a secondary playmaker who could grow into more on-ball reps in time.

Sources connected to the Connecticut program rave about Castle’s character and competitiveness; many loved his willingness to do whatever it took for the Huskies. He took on the defensive stopper role at times on players such as Alabama’s Mark Sears at the Final Four or Creighton’s Baylor Scheierman during the season. He shared responsibilities for initiating the offense, showcasing passing skill and an ability to get to the rim. He moved the ball well across the perimeter and was a high-impact player on both ends despite making only 27 percent of his 3s. He stepped up in almost all of their big games, including a 21-point Final Four performance and a 15-point national title game showing.

5. TRADE: Detroit Pistons trade No. 5 to Memphis Grizzlies
Donovan Clingan | 7-2 center | 20 years old | Connecticut
(Projected trade details: Pistons trade No. 5 to Memphis for No. 9 and a future lightly protected first-round pick.)

This pick is a key swing spot in the draft. League sources are struggling to determine the preferences of new Pistons president of basketball operations Trajan Langdon, since he wasn’t running the show in New Orleans. Matas Buzelis is the most consistent name that comes up with the Pistons. The team has a need at the four, and Buzelis’ agent, Michael Tellem, is the son of Pistons’ vice chairman Arn Tellem. However, Langdon has made it clear, both publicly and privately in conversations with league executives, that the team wants to add more assets to its cache. In regard to No. 5, Langdon opened the door to moving the pick if it meant adding value to its asset cache.

“We’re looking for the guy we feel has the best upside out of this draft,” Langdon said during his introductory news conference last week. “And if that guy’s not there at No. 5, and there’s a team that’s willing to give us an asset value to flip back, then maybe that’s an opportunity as well. But as of right now, our vision is not to be out of this draft. We want to draft a player, and if we do flip back, it’s not going to be that far.”

The team is down one first-round pick following the Isaiah Stewart trade in the 2020 draft, so dealing No. 5 this season to gain more draft capital would provide Detroit more flexibility in the future. In this hypothetical trade, Detroit accomplishes that goal by moving down four spots.

Memphis, meanwhile, replenishes its center position with a terrific prospect. Clingan is a drop-coverage big man who would partner with Jackson to potentially create the best defensive frontcourt in the NBA in a couple of years.

If Clingan dropped into the No. 3 to No. 6 range, a number of teams picking below that range would have serious interest in moving up to acquire Connecticut’s star 7-footer, league sources tell The Athletic.

6. Charlotte Hornets
Dalton Knecht | 6-5 wing | 23 years old | Tennessee
The Hornets’ pick is seen as another inflection point, as teams around the league are unclear on the direction new head of basketball operations Jeff Peterson will take. Peterson was an assistant GM in Brooklyn and Atlanta, and his teams made varied picks during his time there.

Charlotte seems to have interest, to varying degrees, in Sheppard, Castle, Knecht and potentially others, league sources tell The Athletic. In Knecht, the Hornets would be selecting a player to help space the court for young stars Brandon Miller and LaMelo Ball. Knecht scored at a dizzying pace in college, averaging 25.5 points in 18 SEC games while shooting 48.4 percent from the field and 42.4 percent from 3. His season averages were 21.7 points per game on 46 percent from the field, but those stats were dragged down by a stretch where he played at less than 100 percent following an ankle injury. His offense should translate to NBA settings. Not only is he a terrific shooter, especially off movement, but he’s also a higher-end athlete than most shooters. He can sky in transition and finish inside with hang time.

If Detroit used its pick on anyone but Clingan, there would be a significant bidding war from teams trying to jump ahead of Portland at No. 7 to acquire him. Charlotte could be in asset-accumulation mode under its new head of basketball operations.

7. Portland Trail Blazers
Matas Buzelis | 6-9 wing/forward | 19 years old | G League Ignite
In this scenario, Portland would lose out on two potential targets in Clingan and Knecht but would likely be happy to get a shot at Buzelis, a high-upside wing/forward. He would tick a real box for the Blazers as a bigger wing forward with the ability to slide to the four at some point as long as his jumper continues to develop.

Players with somewhat similar profiles in last year’s class, such as Miller, Memphis’ G.G. Jackson, Washington’s Bilal Coulibaly and Whitmore, put together promising rookie seasons while flashing skills they didn’t consistently display in their pre-draft seasons. Perhaps that will happen with Buzelis, too, after a G League Ignite season in which he averaged 14.1 points per game but only shot 45.5 percent from the field and 26.1 percent from 3. (He upped those numbers to 17.1 points, 7.6 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 2.5 blocks over his last 13 games.)

8. San Antonio Spurs (via Raptors)
Cody Williams | 6-7 wing | 19 years old | Colorado
The Spurs’ No. 8 selection is the one to which league sources have connected the widest range of players. Devin Carter had a tremendous workout in San Antonio. Tidjane Salaun is still seen as an option. Throughout the year, the Spurs were connected with Nikola Topić as a potential long-term answer at lead guard, though Topić’s partially torn ACL has thrown that impression for a loop. Buzelis has been raised as an option if he were to fall to No. 8. Knecht has also been connected here (pun intended) due to his standout shooting ability for a team that was among the worst in the league in that respect last season. This also appears to be Castle’s floor if he falls. Whenever a team is connected with this many players, it indicates to league sources (and me) that the Spurs have done a tremendous job of setting smoke screens. It’s difficult to gauge their plans.

Williams is another player who has been linked to this pick. The younger brother of blossoming Thunder wing Jalen Williams, Cody profiles as the kind of prized high-end prospect who can pressure the rim, pass, make plays and potentially defend multiple positions. Standing 6-7 with a 7-1 wingspan, Williams showed the ability to play some point guard this past season in addition to attacking in transition and slashing from the wing in a straight line. He struggled to finish after an ankle injury sapped some of his explosiveness, but in his 14 games before the injury, he averaged 15.4 points, 3.4 rebounds and 1.7 assists while shooting 60.6 percent from the field.

9. TRADE: Memphis Grizzlies trade No. 9 to Detroit Pistons
Tidjane Salaun | 6-9 wing/forward | 18 years old | Cholet
(Projected trade details: Pistons trade No. 5 to Memphis for No. 9 and a future lightly protected first round pick.)

Since taking the Pistons’ job, Langdon has been publicly clear he wants to take an upside swing with the Pistons’ pick, be it at No. 5 or elsewhere. Salaun would be that. At 6-foot-9 with a long 7-foot-2 wingspan, Salaun improved drastically over the course of his season in France. He is a big forward with some perimeter skill who has been productive for his age in the French League and Basketball Champions League this season, averaging 9.5 points and 3.9 rebounds while shooting 32 percent from behind the 3-point line. He has a smooth stroke and also shows some upside handling the ball in transition. Defensively, he improved a ton throughout the season.

More importantly, Salaun plays hard and has terrific basketball character. He is aggressive and willing to play physically in the paint despite a still-developing frame. He fills a long-term positional need at the four for the Pistons, who could sign a bigger forward in free agency and let Salaun develop at his own pace into the long-term answer at the position.

10. Utah Jazz
Devin Carter | 6-2 guard | 22 years old | Providence
No potential lottery selection has helped themselves more throughout the pre-draft process than Carter. He’s taken an “anywhere, anytime” approach to workouts, feeling confident he can measure up to the best players in the class. Like Jaime Jaquez last season, Carter is an older prospect who has shown up in front of teams and given anyone he’s faced difficulty with his athleticism, elite defense and work rate. League sources have also touted him as leaving one of the strongest impressions in pre-draft interviews.

Carter was one of the best players in college basketball this past season. The son of former NBA point guard Anthony Carter, Devin improved in each of his last five seasons. However, Carter’s biggest jump this past campaign came on offense. After years of being a questionable shooter, Carter hit 37.7 percent of his nearly seven 3-point attempts per game. His shot is something of a moon ball that arcs high in the air, but it went in consistently this season. Several teams in the No. 9 to 15 range are excited by Carter, and he might hear his name called higher than this.

11. Chicago Bulls
Zach Edey | 7-4 center | 22 years old | Purdue
Edey was the best player in college basketball, averaging 25.2 points, 12.2 rebounds and more than two blocks per game on his way to back-to-back National Player of the Year awards. He establishes position anywhere and everywhere on the court because of his size and strength, yet possesses remarkable touch around the rim. One could make the case he was the best screen-setter in the country with the way he crushed guards trying to get through and rolled to the rim for deep post-ups or easy buckets. Edey improved defensively over his time in college, becoming an impactful drop-coverage pick-and-roll defender who took up enough space to dissuade guards from driving and finishing around the basket.

The issue with his fit in the NBA is obvious: He’s 7-4 and doesn’t move particularly well laterally. Can he stop ballhandlers from turning the corner on him? Can he get back in transition in the up-and-down NBA?

Despite those concerns, Edey appears to be rising up the board. It would be a surprise to see him get outside of the top 20. The Bulls should be in the market for a long-term answer at center; league sources have connected them with Clingan if they can trade up into his range. If the Bulls miss on him, Edey makes sense as a backup option, although it would be intriguing to see what they would do with this pick if the board fell this way. They’re an extremely difficult team to project right now due to the sheer number of moving parts with their roster, including DeMar DeRozan, Lonzo Ball’s contract and health status, and their potential interest in trading Zach LaVine.

12. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Rockets)
Bub Carrington | 6-4 guard | 18 years old | Pittsburgh
The Thunder have a loaded core with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, as well as a ton of effective role players. But they also could use another backcourt scorer, even after moving Josh Giddey for Alex Caruso. Cason Wallace, last year’s first-round pick, had a terrific rookie season and could develop into that kind of player. In today’s game, though, you can’t have enough players with real dribble/pass/shoot attributes.

Carrington was the talk of the scouting community after NCAA conference championship week, when he put together several monster games as Pittsburgh made a late bid for the NCAA Tournament. He’s also had a strong start to his pre-draft process, with several teams noting his impressive pro day. There is an expectation he will be selected somewhere within the first 20 picks.

Carrington is a monster pull-up shooter and sharp passer and became an improved defender throughout the season. He was productive in averaging 13.6 points, 5.2 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game, though he shot 41.2 percent from the field and 32.2 percent from 3. He’s also the youngest high-level college player in the class, not turning 19 until July. Despite that youth, he processes the game exceptionally well.

13. Sacramento Kings
Ron Holland | 6-7 wing | 18 years old | G League Ignite
League sources believe the Kings want to accentuate their readymade core with other players who can help them win now. They only fell to 46 wins this season after winning 48 and establishing themselves as a team to reckon with in 2022-23. However, the Western Conference got better around them, and the Kings don’t want to stay in the Play-in position they found themselves in following that breakout season. That thought process could result in this pick being available for the right veteran.

Having said that, this is a great positional fit if Holland gets to No. 13. He was the Ignite’s most productive player last season, averaging 19.5 points, 6.7 rebounds and 2.9 assists per game while being one of the team’s few offensive creators. Most of those points, however, came in transition or inefficiently in half-court settings. He had a below-average true shooting percentage and more turnovers than assists as he struggled with his decision-making. Those issues are somewhat to be expected from an 18-year-old playing professionally for the first time, but they also have made it tricky for evaluators to slot him. He also missed the end of the G League season with a thumb injury that occurred as he was beginning to improve.

Holland’s motor excites NBA teams the most. He constantly plays hard, getting the most out of his athleticism. His energy can sometimes cause him to be overaggressive and overly physical on defense, but amid the Ignite’s poor season, Holland showed a capacity for growth that impressed many scouts.

His range is seen as quite wide right now. He hasn’t had a strong pre-draft process; he did not impress teams during visits and at his pro day, according to league sources. However, Holland isn’t the type of player who typically shines in those situations, so teams would be wise not to over-index on that portion of the process.

14. TRADE: Portland Trail Blazers trade No. 14 (via Golden State) to New Orleans Pelicans
Rob Dillingham | 6-1 guard | 19 years old | Kentucky
(Projected trade details: New Orleans acquires No. 14 from Portland for No. 21 and the worst of the two first round picks that they own in 2026 [NOP or MIL].)

It’s hard to find the landing spot for Dillingham on draft night with the present order. Portland, Sacramento, Memphis and Chicago all have backcourts of the future in some respect, and Dillingham doesn’t fit Oklahoma City’s model of selecting players with at least average (if not well above-average) positional size. All of this has led to league sources wondering if a team will trade up to take Dillingham if he slides into this area.

Dillingham averaged 15.2 points and 3.9 assists per game this past season while shooting 47.5 percent from the field and 44.4 percent from 3. He maintains control well despite playing at a fast pace, using a bevy of crossovers and well-timed hesitation moves to maximize his speed. Evaluators are confident he’ll be able to separate from his man in the NBA.

I’ve moved New Orleans up to No. 14 to select its point guard of the future. Why Dillingham over another guard who drops here in Topić? Because Dillingham’s shooting meshes a bit better with Zion Williamson and the team’s willingness to play its star as the nominal point guard. The Pelicans also have a ton of length across the positional spectrum with Dyson Daniels, Trey Murphy and Herb Jones that could help account for Dillingham’s size on defense.

15. Miami Heat
Nikola Topić | 6-6 lead guard | 18 years old | Crvena zvezda
Topić’s draft range is one of the biggest talking points around the league now. There seems to be uncertainty about when he’s picked. That has a lot to do with his knee injury, which was diagnosed as a partially torn ACL earlier this month.

It also has to do with teams’ attempts to get a handle on his game. In 13 Adriatic League games for Mega Basket before his transfer to Crvena zvezda, Topić averaged 18.6 points and 6.9 assists while shooting 52.4 percent from the field. He’s a dynamic ball-screen distributor and consistently lived in the paint in the Adriatic League, which consists of the top teams from the six countries that once made up Yugoslavia. He can execute nearly every pass in the book once he gets a downhill advantage and hits teammates with flair and creativity. Topić also scores proficiently at the rim, using inventive touch to finish high off the glass and around rim protectors.

However, after moving over to Crvena zvezda (also known as Red Star) for the second half of the season, he wasn’t quite as impactful, even before getting hurt.

Miami has a tendency to take whichever highly ranked player falls to them on draft night. They also have a recent history with prospects who played for Mega in Serbia, having selected Nikola Jović two years ago. Topić would also give the Heat some size and passing ability in their backcourt, valuable attributes next to Terry Rozier and Tyler Herro.

16. Philadelphia 76ers
Jared McCain | 6-2 guard | 20 years old | Duke
Many league sources believe the 76ers could move their first-round pick to get immediate help. Philadelphia has cleared significant cap space to go star-hunting, so, if the right deal becomes available, this pick could be used to further that goal. Even if the Sixers believe they could potentially sign a star in free agency, filling out the roster with ready-made veterans around Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey will be critical.

McCain was seen as a potential one-and-done lottery prospect entering the season before a slow start made evaluators pause. However, over the last two-thirds of the season, McCain was one of the best freshman scorers in high-major college basketball. Starting with Duke’s Dec. 9 game against Charlotte, McCain averaged 16.2 points, 5.2 rebounds and 1.9 assists over his last 28 games. He made 41.6 percent of his 6.4 3-point attempts per game during that span and consistently got into the lane in transition or when driving closeouts. I also thought he improved drastically on defense over his final 15 or so games.

His fit with Tyrese Maxey is not ideal because of their size, but I don’t expect Daryl Morey to draft based on fit when the Sixers have so few players under contract next season.

17. Los Angeles Lakers
Tristan da Silva | 6-8 forward | 23 years old | Colorado
The Pelicans had an option to take the Lakers’ No. 17 pick this year or defer the pick to 2025. They decided to do the latter, which allowed the Lakers to retain this selection. This is another pick many believe is ripe to be moved as the Lakers scour the trade market for immediate upgrades around LeBron James and Anthony Davis.

If they keep it, da Silva is an oft-mentioned option. Other scouts have finally come around following his strong finish to the year and play in the NCAA Tournament. Over his final 14 games, da Silva averaged 17.1 points while shooting 51.4 percent from the field and 42.6 percent from 3. He grabbed 4.6 rebounds, dished out 2.2 assists and grabbed 1.3 steals. He’s made nearly 40 percent from 3 over the last two seasons.

Da Silva moves well without the ball but can also handle it himself and make good passing decisions. He processes the game quickly and plays at a high speed, even if he doesn’t have great athletic tools. He isn’t an elite defender, but he’s smart, adequate against other forwards and sharp off the ball. He ticks a lot of boxes that make him profile well as a solid rotation player in today’s NBA.

18. Orlando Magic
Johnny Furphy | 6-8 wing | 19 years old | Kansas
Furphy decided to stay in the draft after flirting with a return to Kansas and will likely be rewarded by being one of the top 20 picks. It’s easy to see why scouts are excited about his game. He has many of the attributes NBA teams seek when identifying projects worth a long-term investment. It’s hard to find wings with Furphy’s physical profile.

He’s come a long way in 18 months to get to this point. While his athleticism and shooting ability always made him an intriguing upside swing, he didn’t seem to know how to impact the game when he played at the Center of Excellence in Australia. He was up and down this past season at Kansas but earned Bill Self’s trust, which is not easy for freshmen to do. He averaged nine points and five rebounds while finishing well at the rim and shooting 35 percent from 3.

He ticks a lot of the boxes Orlando president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman tends to seek: positional size, a strong work ethic and character. His ability to shoot at his size would also be a nice wrinkle, and maybe the Magic can bring back fellow Australian Joe Ingles (who has a $11 million team option) to help ease Furphy’s rookie transition.

19. Toronto Raptors (via Pacers)
Yves Missi | 6-11 big | 20 years old | Baylor
Missi is a project, but with elite tools that project to a clear NBA role. As a 7-footer with a 7-5 wingspan, Missi might have the best frame of any low-usage center prospect in the class. He’s a terrific athlete who moves his feet fluidly in space given his size. He can sky for impressive lob finishes in transition and from the dunker spot. He blocks shots well and has potential to stick with guards for multiple slides on defense. He made the Big 12 All-Defense team as a freshman while averaging 10.7 points per game on 61 percent from the field.

He profiles as a Clint Capela-style big man once he picks up the nuances of ball-screen coverage. He needs to put on weight and get stronger through his base, as he often gets moved on the block and can struggle on the defensive glass. But he has the look of a competent defensive starting center if he can reach his ceiling.

The Raptors are a difficult team to gauge. Their No. 31 pick is seen as a valuable one league-wide, as the addition of a second night of the draft enables Toronto to have an overnight bidding war for the selection.

20. Cleveland Cavaliers
Ja’Kobe Walter | 6-4 wing | 19 years old | Baylor
Walter had an up-and-down season, averaging 14.5 points and 4.4 rebounds per game. He was an inconsistent shooter, although teams have few concerns about his long-term upside because his motion looks clean and he can make shots from a variety of situations. Teams, however, worry about everything else. Walter isn’t a lead guard because he doesn’t see the floor well as a passer. Defensively, Walter struggled at times to stay in front of players.

Scouts are split on Walter’s upside. Most don’t see him as a star, but they disagree on whether he’s a long-term NBA starter or merely a rotation player. Those who believe he will be a high-level shooter despite making 34.1 percent from 3 last season tend to be believers, but his range is quite wide. Some teams near the end of the lottery are considering him, while others feel he could drop into the 20s.

The Cavaliers are doing due diligence on a number of wings and guards in this class, with the main goal being to continue to find shooting around its core of players who made progress this past season by reaching the second round of the playoffs.

21. TRADE: New Orleans Pelicans trade pick to Portland Trail Blazers
Kyshawn George | 6-7 wing | 20 years old | Miami (Fla.)
(Projected trade details: New Orleans acquires No. 14 from Portland for No. 21 and the worst of the two first round picks that they own in 2026 [NOP or MIL.].)

I’m not this high on George, but he was invited to the NBA Draft green room and is seen as a potential option to be selected in the top 20 somewhere, with even a couple of lottery teams doing due diligence to learn more about him. Portland is one of those lottery teams thought to be interested, and it makes sense why: George is a big wing who can shoot, dribble for his size and pass. However, he’s not particularly explosive athletically and has never been productive at any stage of his journey. He scored less than three points per game in the French second division in 2022-23 and averaged fewer than double-figures for a Miami team that was one of the worst high-major teams in the country by the end of the season.

Still, George is a late bloomer who grew up to his current 6-7 size over the last 18 months. He is seen as an upside swing who could be worthwhile for teams who like wings with size and shooting ability.

22. TRADE: Phoenix Suns trade pick to New York Knicks
Tyler Kolek | 6-1 guard | 23 years old | Marquette
(Projected trade details: Phoenix trades No. 22 to New York for No. 25 and No. 38 in 2024 NBA Draft.)

The Knicks have been interested in Kolek throughout the season, league sources tell The Athletic, and it makes sense why. Even with the emergence of Miles McBride as a tremendous backup guard on a bargain deal, the Knicks were often one shot creator short in the playoffs and forced to rely on Jalen Brunson to do everything at all times. In Kolek, the team could envision a long-term backup point guard who might be able to reduce the wear and tear on Brunson.

Kolek was an All-American this season but suffered an oblique injury that held him out of the Big East tournament. From Jan. 15 to Feb. 25, Marquette went 10-1 as Kolek averaged 16.9 points and 9.6 assists per game while shooting 48.6 percent from the field and 44 percent from 3. He won All-American honors on his way to season averages of 15.3 points and 7.7 assists per game.

Kolek is a crafty guard. I’m not convinced he can even dunk, but he knows how to play off two feet and is an elite distributor in ball screens. He made a big leap as a shooter this season, drilling 38.8 percent from 3 while looking more confident pulling up when opportunities arose. Kolek must prove he has the foot speed to hold up on defense, and he’ll need to prove he can create separation with the ball in his hands against better defenders. But any team looking for a backup guard could plug Kolek in early.

Phoenix’s goal, assuming a player it loves isn’t on the board at No. 22, should be to accumulate as many pick assets as possible. Do not be surprised to see them try to trade down and pick up additional picks to re-stock their cupboard. In the next six drafts (including this one), the Suns are only able to trade No. 22 this year and their 2028 second-round pick. Even just for more maneuverability, the Suns need to find ways to add more picks. More on that at No. 25.

23. Milwaukee Bucks (via NOP)
Kel’el Ware | 20 years old | 7-0 big | Indiana
The Bucks need depth across the board, especially in the form of younger players who can fit specific long-term needs around Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard. Brook Lopez only has one year left on his contract before hitting free agency again, and it’s hard to find players like him for a bargain on the open market, which is the pool the Bucks will need to swim in given their contractual obligations to Antetokounmpo, Lillard and Khris Middleton.

Ware ticks the box of a drop-coverage big they could develop under Lopez’s tutelage for a year before hopefully giving him more playing time to become an effective NBA player. He needs to work on bringing the same defensive intensity on every possession, but his tools are elite at 7-foot with a near 7-5 wingspan. If he hit under Doc Rivers, it would be an enormous win for the organization to solve a potential problem down the road at the center spot.

24. New York Knicks (via Mavericks)
Ryan Dunn | 6-6 wing | 21 years old | Virginia
Dunn is one of the best defensive players I’ve ever evaluated. He is a genuine All-Defense candidate long-term if his offense becomes sufficient to stay on the court. Along with Houston’s Jamal Shead, Dunn was one of the two most disruptive defenders in the country this past season. He averaged 1.3 steals and 2.3 blocks per game while playing for a slow-paced Virginia team. He covers an exceptional amount of ground defensively and is a monster help-side defender. On top of that, he’s incredibly switchable.

Offense is the big question. Dunn did not play confidently on that end of the court by the end of the season and seemed to get rid of the ball quickly. He also struggled to shoot, making 23.5 percent of his 3s while attempting less than one per game. However, Dunn has performed well in workouts with multiple teams, according to league sources, and might go even higher.

The Knicks are another team that could trade at least one of their three picks in the top 40. In the past, the Knicks have tried to add future draft picks to create more potential avenues to complete trades. Don’t be surprised to see them try to extend these assets further out into the future again or try to consolidate them to get players they want. I’ve done that in this hypothetical, with them ending the night with Dunn and Kolek.

25. TRADE: Phoenix Suns trade pick (via Knicks) to Portland for No. 34, No. 40, and a future second round pick
Kyle Filipowski | 6-11 big | 20 years old | Duke
(Potential trade details: New York trades No. 25 and No. 38 to Phoenix for No. 22; Phoenix then trades No. 25 to Portland for No. 34, No. 40 and a future second-round pick.)

In this scenario, in exchange for No. 22, the Suns add pick Nos. 34, 38 and 40, on top of one additional future second-rounder. The Suns could then try to push one or two of those picks in the second round out into future draft capital again from teams looking to move into the top 40, of which there are expected to be plenty on Thursday. They could end this process with five or six second-rounders if they play their cards right and find the right partners.

If this all seems complicated, it is, but it has happened recently. Boston executed this strategy last season, trading down multiple times from No. 25 and receiving what amounted to five second-rounders in the process. That process included trading the No. 25 pick for No. 31 and two future seconds; essentially, the same price point as this hypothetical deal. Given Phoenix’s asset situation, this is the smartest strategy for the Suns to employ Wednesday.

As a big man who can shoot, Filipowski could pair well with a starting center or serve as a third big. The Duke product averaged 16.4 points, 8.3 rebounds and 2.8 assists while shooting about 50 percent from the field and 35 percent from 3 this past season. He carried the Blue Devils through long stretches of games with his ability to catch the ball on the block and score, but pro scouts are more intrigued by his well-rounded perimeter game. Filipowski can shoot from 3, attack heavy closeouts and bring the ball up the court in grab-and-go situations. His passing took a leap this past season, and he was more comfortable reading the court.

Filipowski’s defense is better than its reputation. Duke had a top-16 defense this past season, and he usually positions himself well, contests enough shots and can slide his feet a couple of times on an island to stay with wings and even some guards. It’s difficult to find 7-footers who can dribble, pass and shoot. Filipowski can do all three.

Portland is seeking big men in this draft class, and Filipowski would make a nice long-term complement at the four and the five to what they already have, particularly off the bench.

26. Washington Wizards (via Clippers)
Isaiah Collier | 6-3 guard | 19 years old | USC
This would represent a long slide for Collier, but league sources are having trouble finding his floor. Even as he started the season on fire and looked like a candidate to be the No. 1 pick, scouts worried about his style of play. He then tailed off as USC’s season fell apart, struggling with turnovers and defense, and missed time after hurting his hand. Once he returned in February, he took the Pac-12 by storm, averaging 18.7 points and 4.3 assists over his final seven games while shooting 46.3 percent from the field and 35.7 percent from 3. He was the bruising, powerful driver we saw early in college and throughout his high school career, generating seven free-throw attempts per night. Collier is an impressive downhill threat who lives in the paint and has the wherewithal to hit kickout passes and dump-offs.

However, Collier did not test or measure well at the combine, and evaluators wonder if his finishing and power-based game will translate to the NBA. At just under 6-3 without shoes and lacking elite length or a consistent jumper, can he consistently be the downhill, power-based player we saw at lower levels? The Wizards would be thrilled with this result, as they could use a high-upside option at the lead guard spot.

27. Minnesota Timberwolves
Baylor Scheierman | 6-6 wing | 23 years old | Creighton
I’ve maintained a first-round grade on Scheierman since the end of the college basketball season. He averaged 18 points, nine rebounds and four assists while drilling several 3s off significant movement. He’s one of the best shooters in the class, with a versatile motion that allows him to fire from distance off any kind of footwork. He’s a quick ball-mover and passer, and his defense is better than most believe. Go back and watch the team’s Sweet 16 game against Tennessee, where he held Knecht to 6-of-17 shooting from the field as the primary defender.

Scheierman is also having one of the better pre-draft processes of any prospect. He was the best player in the five-on-five portion of the draft combine, impressing teams with his ability to fill multiple roles. I think he hears his name called in the first round at this point, as NBA teams generally see him as a player who can help sooner rather than later.

28. Denver Nuggets
DaRon Holmes | 6-9 big | 21 years old | Dayton
Holmes had an outstanding season at Dayton, winning All-American honors by averaging 20.4 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 2.1 blocks while hitting 54.4 percent from the field and 38.6 percent from 3. He’s a versatile big who has a lot of answers for opponents’ ball-screen coverages. He can pick-and-pop, short roll to pass, short roll to finish himself or dive to the rim to catch a lob. Defensively, he’s a good shot blocker and has shown the potential to stay with guards for a couple of slides on the perimeter.

The Nuggets tend to draft older players under general manager Calvin Booth, so it wouldn’t be surprising if they viewed Holmes as the kind of player who could help them when Nikola Jokić is on the bench — or potentially even in minutes with Jokić alongside him.

29. Utah Jazz (via Thunder)
Tyler Smith | 6-9 big | 19 years old | G League Ignite
Smith averaged 13.7 points and 5.1 rebounds this season while drilling 36 percent from 3 and measured at 6-9 without shoes to pair with a 7-1 wingspan. He was effective within a limited role where he pick-and-popped, cut to the rim and dove to the hoop out of ball screens. His jumper is silky smooth; it looks like he could become one of the better shooters in the league at this size.

The Jazz went smaller at No. 10 with Carter in this mock and could bolster their frontcourt with Smith, using him as a legitimate shooter who could study and learn behind Lauri Markkanen for a couple of years in the G League before hopefully becoming a rotation player.

30. Boston Celtics
Jaylon Tyson | 6-6 wing | 21 years old | California
Tyson has gone on a real journey. After entering college as a top-40 player in his recruiting class, Tyson went from Texas to Texas Tech to Cal in three years before finally emerging as an NBA prospect this past season. At 6-7 with long arms, he has great measurements for the NBA. He’s not an explosive player, but he’s powerful and isn’t bothered by contact, allowing him to get the most out of his length and athleticism. He averaged 19.6 points, 6.8 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game while shooting 47 percent from the field and 35.8 percent from 3.

Defensively, there are some worries. It will take him time to keep developing on that end, and I wouldn’t be confident putting him on an NBA floor from day one. But Boston could bring him along slowly, and his strength and shot-creation ability could give them some interesting options down the road.

Second Round
31. Toronto Raptors (via Pistons): Cam Christie | 6-5 wing | 18 years old | Minnesota

32. Utah Jazz (via Wizards): Terrence Shannon Jr. | 6-6 wing | 23 years old | Illinois

33. Milwaukee Bucks (via Trail Blazers): A.J. Johnson | 6-4 guard | 19 years old | Illawarra

34. TRADE: Phoenix Suns (via Hornets and Trail Blazers): Ajay Mitchell | 6-3 guard | 22 years old | UC Santa Barbara

35. San Antonio Spurs: Pacôme Dadiet | 6-8 wing | 18 years old | Ratiopharm Ulm

36. Indiana Pacers (via Raptors): Bobi Klintman | 6-9 wing/forward | 20 years old | Cairns Taipans

37. Minnesota Timberwolves (via Grizzlies): Juan Núñez | 6-3 guard | 20 years old Ratiopharm Ulm

38. TRADE: Phoenix Suns (via Jazz and Knicks): Adem Bona | 6-8 big | 21 years old | UCLA

39. Memphis Grizzlies (via Nets): Nikola Djurišić | 6-7 wing | 20 years old | Mega

40. TRADE: Phoenix Suns (via Hawks and Trail Blazers): Pelle Larsson | 6-5 wing | 23 years old | Arizona

41. Philadelphia 76ers (via Bulls): Enrique Freeman | 6-7 forward | 23 years old | Akron

42. Charlotte Hornets (via Rockets): Jonathan Mogbo | 6-6 big | 22 years old | San Francisco

43. Miami Heat: Cam Spencer | 6-3 guard | 24 years old | Connecticut

44. Houston Rockets (via Warriors): Jamal Shead | 6-0 guard | 21 years old | Houston

45. Sacramento Kings: Jaylen Wells | 6-7 wing | 20 years old | Washington State

46. LA Clippers (via Pacers): Oso Ighodaro | 6-10 big | 21 years old | Marquette

47. Orlando Magic: Harrison Ingram | 6-5 wing | 21 years old | North Carolina

48. San Antonio Spurs (via Lakers): Melvin Ajinca | 6-6 wing | 20 years old | Saint-Quentin

49. Indiana Pacers (via Cavaliers): Trey Alexander | 6-3 guard | 21 years old | Creighton

50. Indiana Pacers (via Pelicans): P.J. Hall | 6-8 big | 22 years old | Clemson

51. Washington Wizards (via Suns): Tristen Newton | 6-3 guard | 23 years old | Connecticut

52. Golden State Warriors (via Bucks): Kevin McCullar | 6-5 wing | 23 years old | Kansas

53. Detroit Pistons (via Knicks): Antonio Reeves | 6-5 wing | 23 years old | Kentucky

54. Boston Celtics (via Mavericks): Jalen Bridges | 6-7 wing | 23 years old | Baylor

55. Los Angeles Lakers (via Clippers): Bronny James | 6-1 guard | 19 years old | USC

56. Denver Nuggets (via Timberwolves): Justin Edwards | 6-6 wing | 20 years old Kentucky

57. Memphis Grizzlies (via Thunder): Ariel Hukporti | 6-11 big | 22 years old | Melbourne United

58. Dallas Mavericks (via Celtics): K.J. Simpson | 6-0 guard | 21 years old | Colorado
 
Feel like its taking forever :lol:

Hoping there's an avenue to trade up to get one of Sarr, Clingan, Sheppard. Kleiman definitely trying, but probably difficult. Watching out for Detroit/Duren or #5 deal too.

I almost think Kleiman is willing to sacrifice multiple future 1sts to get that marquee player (whether that's in the draft or on someone else roster). He tried with KD and Bridges // Wagner,Giddey,Kuminga (via draft)
 
SL is a guard's setting so IDK. He might just be watching the RJ Hampton or Malachi Flynn hesi dribble all game.
 
Link to Hollinger's top 20: https://niketalk.com/threads/2024-n...ks-might-be-on-the-clock.677543/post-36987346



NBA Draft 2024: John Hollinger’s Top 75 prospects, featuring Bronny James and more

And we’re back! With less than a week before the NBA Draft, and all of the players who will be in it confirmed, it’s time to expand my draft board.

I shared my top 20 draft prospects just before the draft combine. That list hasn’t changed, and you can find it below. However, we’re adding 55 more names to the list; I’m not necessarily betting on these players, but I think it would make sense to select them at a certain point in the draft where the failure rate is relatively high no matter whom a team takes. I’ve also included several two-way candidates, as that has become an increasingly important roster-building mechanism in recent years.

Tier 06 - One super sleeper
21. Jonathan Mogbo
F SAN FRANCISCO Age: 22 Height: 6-6
Mogbo has some things working against him, which is why I couldn’t quite get him into my top 20. He’s only 6-6 and played as a rim-running five at San Francisco, making zero 3-pointers and attempting only two all season. He’s already 22. And he didn’t play in a power conference.

Nonetheless, he becomes a compelling proposition because the strengths here are strong; if the shooting comes around at all, he has a great chance to be a steal in the back half of the draft. Mogbo played guard as a kid before a late growth spurt and handles the ball very well for his size, but more importantly, he is a good passer who averaged 7.4 dimes per 100 possessions – lofty stuff for a center. He’s able to push his own rebounds, lead the break and make decisions on the move and run actions from the elbows in the half court.

He combines that with a very different skill: elite rebounding, despite being an undersized center. His 22.0 percent rebound rate led the WCC and was fourth in the nation – just ahead of some guy named Zach Edey.

Mogbo has great instincts that show up behind his passing, particularly in a superb steal rate for a center (3.2 swipes per 100 possessions) and his high field goal percentage in the paint. While he’s not going to be rim-running for dunks except, perhaps, in brief cameos as a junk-ball five, he’s shown he has the all-court game to be a productive NBA forward. He reflected much of that in the NBA Draft Combine, where in 37 minutes across two games, he filled the stat sheet with 11 rebounds, seven assists and four steals.

Now, about the shooting: I’ve seen Mogbo shoot 3s before games, and his shot isn’t broken. He has a push shot from distance and it’s a bit slow, but he can be threatening enough to warrant at least some token degree of respect from defenses. He shot 69.2 percent from the line in his final college season.

At this point in the draft, I’d take those positives and the upside over the fairly meh outlooks of the rest of the field. Realistically, I expect Mogbo to be picked in the 40s or 50s, but I think he’s one of the most interesting players in this class.

Tier 07 - Quasi-sleepers
22. Bub Carrington
G PITTSBURGH Age: 18 Height: 6-4
Carrington was only moderately effective in his one college season, but a July 2005 birthdate and a workable base of guard skills hints at more.

He shot only 32.2 percent from 3 and 78.5 percent from the line, but his future is as a shooter: His form looks good from a set position and off catch-and-shoots, and he gets good elevation on his shot. Where he tended to get into trouble was when he went to more complex moves, where his balance would break down and his arms would get out of alignment, dragging down his percentages. That said, he shot 3s at a high volume, and that part of his game should translate.

Carrington also rebounded well for his size and had nearly two assists for every turnover in ACC play despite often playing off the ball.

Where you worry a little is in some of his athletic indicators. Nothing is easy for him; he has skill for his size but doesn’t exactly pop off the floor or blow by opponents on the move. His piddling rate of 1.0 steals per 100 possessions is extremely low for a guard prospect, and the tape showed him giving acres of cushion, suggesting he didn’t trust his feet much. He also only shot 47.0 percent on 2s partly because he didn’t put a ton of pressure on the rim.

I’d have an easier time giving Carrington a top-20 grade if his youth was accompanied by a bit more athletic sizzle. Still, he’s very young and decently skilled, so there’s some chance he turns into a valuable offensive player. In a draft where most of the remaining prospects are quite old, his age is a major differentiator.

23. Tyler Smith
F, C G LEAGUE IGNITE Age: 19 Height: 6-9
Smith has some yellow flags that keep him out of my top 20 – he’s not a very instinctive defender, and you want a big man to read things at the end of the floor quicker. Positionally, he seems a bit stuck between four and five. There are parallels to Christian Wood, where Smith’s defense may be suspect enough that teams can’t fit his offense onto the floor. The more positive argument is that he can be a Bobby Portis-type third big who rains buckets while toggling between two frontcourt spots.

Smith has a fairly high ceiling as a stretch big at the offensive end, especially since he companies that with plus athleticism. He’s not a total zero on defense either, hustling end to end and offering secondary rim protection as a shot blocker. His rapid improvement from Overtime Elite to his one year at G League Ignite also speaks well in his favor, especially since Ignite wasn’t exactly a program with which players regularly made giant strides.

Smith mustered 61.6 percent true shooting in the G League as a stretch big despite playing without a real point guard who could make his life easier. He hit 36.0 percent from 3 on solid volume and showed the ability to face up smaller opponents on switches and let it fly from midrange over the top of them. Between his size, left-handedness and Texas roots, there are some Chris Bosh parallels offensively.

Smith needs to hit as an offensive player, though, because the rest isn’t nearly as far along. In particular, he has to up his physicality to survive as an NBA five; a 12.7 percent rebound rate isn’t going to cut it.

24. Pacome Dadiet
F RATIOPHARM ULM Age: 18 Height: 6-8
Dadiet isn’t a big “tools” guy the way a couple of other French prospects are, but his statistical output as a teenager in a B-level European league aren’t all that different from what the more highly touted Risacher and Salaun accomplished. I get the question about whether Dadiet is more a “floor” player than a ceiling one, but teams are constantly looking for guys in this size profile who can stretch the floor.

Dadiet would seem to have a decent chance of qualifying on these fronts, especially when attached with the possibility of being stashed overseas for another year or two before a team is compelled to bring him over. Let’s start with the shooting: While the numbers aren’t overwhelming (35.8 percent from 3, 74.4 percent from the line), the eye test says his jumper is wet. He has a nice, compact flick that comes off his fingers rotating perfectly and good balance getting into shots off the dribble.

Between that, his size and athleticism, Dadiet doesn’t need to add a heck of a lot on the ball to be a useful player. That’s good news, probably, because he hasn’t shown much juice as a creator. He has a high bounce, doesn’t change directions easily and doesn’t read the floor all that well.

Dadiet wasn’t exactly a defensive player of the year candidate in Germany this year, either. He has size and mobility on his side, but lowlights included only blocking eight shots in 903 minutes – #NotGreatBob when you’re 6-8 – and generally reading plays a half-beat late or slow.

Overall, Dadiet seems underrated to me given his birthdate, as his odds of achieving rotation-level usefulness seem pretty decent. I’d rate him a better version of Kyshawn George – younger, more athletic and with a more credible résumé of production.

Tier 08 - Some centers
25. Zach Edey
C PURDUE Age: 22 Height: 7-4
My basic outline of the risk-reward proposition on Edey goes something like this:

He’ll probably get cooked on defense. But what if he doesn’t?

Edey had dominant college stats and looks amazing in some statistical models, but the center position is the most radically different one when we talk about jumping from the NCAA to the NBA. In a related story, big, lumbering centers are the fail point of many draft models.

Edey will have to play a different game from what he did at Purdue, where he basically cut through the paint into post-ups on offense and played deep drop coverage in the paint on defense (I’m talking Jacques Cousteau deep). NBA centers, even the best and slowest ones, are now asked to defend in space, run to the rim in pick-and-roll and be threatening on the move out of short rolls.

In that sense, it feels like Edey arrived two decades late. Many aspects of his game are reminiscent of Yao Ming, with immense size making his shot unblockable and a high, accurate line-drive release. Any team that posts him up consistently will get points out if it. It’s just a question of whether he can avoid calamity at the other end.

However, a career rate of fewer than one steal for every 100 minutes is truly phenomenal, and not in a good way. It’s another indicator of the defensive mobility issues that might swamp his offensive contribution. To be fair, Edey held up better than you’d think on switches in the limited number of times Purdue tried it; NBA guards will be able to walk into pull-up 3s against him, but he can get in a stance and use angles and his imposing size fairly effectively to take away blow-bys.

Finally, a piece of the Edey debate that has received far less discussion: Drafting older centers has been a surefire way to light money on fire for at least the last decade. Edey is 22.

Overall, the “What if he figures it out like Brook Lopez did?” question on defense is tempting enough that he probably becomes worth a dice roll in the 20s and 30s. Even in a draft this weak, however, I can’t see him going higher than that.

26. Kel’El Ware
C INDIANA Age: 20 Height: 7-0
Is there something here? Maybe? Almost across the board, Ware’s indicator stats were neither good enough to stamp him as an automatic first-rounder nor bad enough to exclude him from consideration. He has a thin frame, and opposing post players are likely to have success getting into his body, but he also showed more toughness and mettle at Indiana than in his freshman season at Oregon.

Ware’s most impressive numbers come at the doctor’s office. He measured 6-11 3/4 in socks at the combine with a 7-4 1/2 wingspan and 9-4 1/2 standing reach. That, plus decent mobility, offers serious potential as a rim protector; Ware’s block rate wasn’t exceptional, but the tape at Indiana shows some weird plays where it seems like he could have blocked the shot and opted not to, perhaps in an effort to avoid fouls.

Ware’s offensive role is perhaps a bigger question; he has shown the skill at times to step out and hit 3s but has yet to do so consistently. Similarly, his length and mobility give him obvious utility as a rim runner, but his ability to pass out of those situations remains a question. Between that and the lesser value I put on drafting centers, I can’t quite put him in my top 20, but he’s interesting.

27. DaRon Holmes II
F, C DAYTON Age: 21 Height: 6-9
Holmes was a hugely productive college player but seems trapped between the four and five spots at the NBA level and will have to make some adjustments for his game to work at either position.

Unfortunately, it seems like he’ll have to play the five defensively despite only measuring 6-8 3/4 in socks at the combine, because he doesn’t seem that comfortable defending on an island. The hands are active, and he can contest shots late with his springiness, but he gives a ton of ground to guards. Meanwhile, in the paint, his lack of lower-body strength means opponents can either power through him or spin off him with relative ease.

Offensively, Holmes became a really good player at the college level but doesn’t quite have one go-to skill that differentiates him as a pro. He can make 3s (38.6 percent this past season on 83 attempts) but a career 67.1 percent mark at the foul line doesn’t inspire confidence that he can become a true stretch option. He’s a good one-on-one player who scored at an extremely high rate at Dayton (40.4 points per 100 possessions!) and can put it on the floor and pass, but a lot of the things he did best to dominate the Atlantic 10 will become more difficult against NBA size. Still, Holmes could reach the point where has a Christian Wood-type offensive impact.

All of this makes him look like a typical late first-rounder, with enough tools to make a rotation if everything works out 10 percent better than the median expectation.

Tier 09 - Final first-round grades
28. Jaylon Tyson
F CALIFORNIA Age: 21 Height: 6-6

Tyson doesn’t blow you away with athleticism, but he has a good basketball IQ and a believable skill set for a wing, shooting 37.2 percent from 3 over his three college seasons while often acting as a lead ballhandler for an overmatched Cal team. He measured as a disappointing 6-5 1/2 in socks at the combine, so his future is definitely at the two and three, but his solid frame and plus rebound rate are indicative of somebody who can play bigger.

Defensively, Tyson’s clips make it hard for me to get fired up about him as a first-rounder. He doesn’t trust his feet enough to get into the ball, instead giving players cushion to waltz into a jump shot, and he doesn’t have the length to make impactful shot challenges once they go up. He had a high steal rate in his first two college seasons, however, and can likely put more effort into this end if he’s not being asked to create every shot for the offense.

Tyson’s shooting accuracy isn’t a major question, but he does have a slow release on his shot, and it’s off to the side of his head. Additionally, his role was likely too big for him even as a collegian, with a high turnover rate and just 55.7 percent true shooting. He showed some craft as a finisher to compensate for his lack of elite athleticism and being generally slow, but he’s going to need oodles of it at the next level. Those factors kept Tyson out of my top 20, but his IQ and skill could make him a solid rotation wing if he can hold up on defense.

29. Justin Edwards
F KENTUCKY Age: 20 Height: 6-6
Edwards was an older freshman (he turns 21 in December) and isn’t an elite athlete (a 28-inch no step vertical, confirmed by his getting rim-checked on a two-footed dunk attempt in Kentucky’s NCAA Tournament loss to Oakland.), thus, the high-lottery hype he had coming into the season was likely always misplaced.

That said, I think the pendulum might have swung a bit too far against him during his disappointing campaign at Kentucky, and Edwards is a pretty good bet to be a useful role player at the next level. He wouldn’t be the first Wildcats perimeter player under John Calipari to look a lot better after he left Lexington.

The narrative is that Edwards had a terrible year, but he ended up with a 18.5 PER on 66.9 percent true shooting in SEC play – pretty darned good for a one-and-done. Going deeper under the hood, he shot 56 percent on 2s and had a respectable steals rate. That’s partly offset by a poor assist rate and a sky-high foul rate, but there’s nothing red-flaggy in his profile. Underwhelming in places, maybe, but not red-flaggy. He played two pretty solid games at the combine, too, and dished out five assists.

Edwards’ feel for the game is definitely a work in progress – he was the lord of the one-dribble pull-up 2 in the first half of the season, and his 3-point shooting numbers in SEC play this season (a torrid 50.1 percent) likely vastly overstated his true ability level. Edwards’ shot doesn’t always come off his hand cleanly, and his release isn’t terribly fast. While he got on a big hot streak in conference play, he made 36.5 percent from 3 overall on fairly low volume and 77.6 percent from the line. I’d project him as an average shooter for a small forward.

Players in this size range are always in demand, and you can play several of them at once. Thus, I’ll always be biased toward taking them higher rather than lower, especially the young ones. Edwards has his flaws, and it’s possible he just doesn’t have the feel to overcome his other limitations. This package, however, seems worth taking a stab at between picks 20 and 40.

30. Baylor Scheierman
F CREIGHTON Age: 23 Height: 6-6
In a draft with a surfeit of 23- and 24-year-olds, Scheierman is my highest-ranked senior citizen after Knecht. He will turn 24 in September and has bad athletic indicators: low rates of steals, blocks and 2-point shooting across all 17 years of his college career. (OK, five years, but still.)

However, the lefty offers a clear positional fit as a big wing who can shoot and operate as a secondary ballhandler. He was the best player in the on-court session at the draft combine (which nearly all the projected first-rounders skipped), and historically, that has had some predictive value. (Take a bow, Andrew Nembhard.)

Also, guys with this kind of shooting track record (38.1 percent from 3 on massive volume, 87.6 percent from the line) have been pretty bankable as NBA role players, especially when they combine it with positional size. Scheierman also punches way above his weight on his glass, posting a stellar 15.9 percent rebound rate in Big East games. This is a low-ceiling, high-floor proposition, but in a weak draft, it gets my last first-round grade.

Tier 10 - Second-rounders who may make it
31. KJ Simpson
G COLORADO Age: 21 Height: 6-0
It feels quite odd that two Colorado players are projected to go ahead of Simpson, given that he was obviously the Buffaloes’ best player and probably should have won Pac-12 Player of the Year over Arizona’s Caleb Love.

Simpson is only 6-0, which immediately puts him behind the eight-ball in the NBA game. His athletic indicators are positive, including a 10.0 percent rebound rate that’s sensational for a small guard, but he doesn’t have the freakish blow-by quickness that you’d like from a player of this size. Simpson’s breakout junior season instead came about through a massive leap as a shooter; he nailed 43.4 percent from 3 and 87.6 percent from the line in 2023-24.

The tape shows a guy who could get opportunistic steals but wasn’t turning guards three times coming up the court or anything; again, for a small guard, you’d hope for a bit more ball pressure. That said, I think sometimes teams are too dismissive of the idea that a small guard can succeed with skill and craft; Tyus Jones, for instance, has done so without shooting nearly as well as Simpson.

While he probably profiles as a backup, at this point in the draft, Simpson feels like a reasonable proposition. He probably doesn’t warrant a fringe first-round grade in a normal-strength draft, but all the remaining options are either significantly older, significantly worse or both.

32. Adem Bona
C UCLA Age: 21 Height: 6-8
May I interest you in a 6-8 center who can’t shoot? Bona probably tops out as a backup given his offensive limitations and lack of height, but he has the athleticism (35-inch no-step vertical) and length (7-3 3/4 wingspan) to make up for only measuring 6-8 1/4 in socks at the combine.

Bona had a lot of success switching onto guards on the perimeter and was comfortable getting up into guards dribbling; he also had a high steal rate for a center. Despite his size and frequent defensive forays on the perimeter, he had a 9.9 percent block rate in Pac-12 games. The bigger concern with him is probably on the glass, where he punched below a typical draftable center’s weight with just a 14.2 percent rebound rate.

Offensively, Bona pops off the floor on rim runs, but his potential there was largely nullified in a constipated UCLA offense that rarely offered open lanes to paradise. His skill set is pretty limited otherwise, with a predilection for turnovers and a career 67.6 percent free-throw rate. That showed in his first combine game, when he fouled out and had four turnovers, although he played much better in the second one.

Bona’s ceiling is likely too limited to justify a first-round pick, but he has fairly believable utility as a switchable, high-energy big man who can get some free points on dunks.

33. Ryan Dunn
F VIRGINIA Age: 21 Height: 6-6
Dunn can guard all five positions, and his defensive tape doesn’t leave many questions. He averaged 3.1 steals and 5.4 blocks per 100 possessions in a conservative scheme, finished second to teammate Reece Beekman in the ACC Defensive Player of the Year vote and had a plus rebound rate for a four. Physically, he only measured 6-6 1/4 in socks at the combine but has a 7-1 1/2 wingspan, making him a rare “plus-7” in NBA parlance. The reason to draft him is for his defense; he can be an impact player on that end from Day 1.

Unfortunately, today’s NBA is all about offense, and Dunn’s outside shot is a down-to-the-studs rebuild. He began the season taking 3s but lost all confidence as the year went on and wasn’t looking at the basket by the end. He’s an atrocious foul shooter, too. Right now, nearly all his baskets come on dunks and layups from random offense; while he could have some potential as an undersized rim-runner, it’s hard to see somebody of his size surviving for long on an NBA floor without a real 3-point shot.

That makes Dunn a classic second-round dart throw, a bet that maybe his shot comes around enough to keep him on the floor for his elite defense.

34. Yves Missi
C BAYLOR Age: 20 Height: 6-11
It’s easy to understand why Missi is getting first-round looks; he pops off the floor in game tape in a way that demands you rewind and ask, “Who the hell was that?” He had a 31-inch no-step vertical at the combine, but it’s how quickly he gets up for blocks and finishes that gets your attention.

Missi is old for a freshman, turning 20 in May, but also young as a basketball player, coming to the U.S. from Cameroon in 2021 with relatively little experience. You can see that with all the rough edges in his game; he doesn’t have great feel for passing and fouls with abandon.

Some other aspects of his game present questions too. A player of this ilk should put up huge rebounding numbers, but Missi’s rebound rate (14.5 percent in Big 12 games) was unimpressive for a center prospect. He also didn’t show a lot of comfort defending on the perimeter and had a very low steals rate even for a center.

The reason he’s in the mix for the first round is the combo of athletic pop and ballhandling skill for his size; Missi loves to face-up opposing bigs from the free-throw line and has superior mobility to take them off the bounce. Without an accompanying shooting threat, however, this may be much harder to pull off in the NBA. Overall, I get why some teams have him rated as a top-20 prospect given the developmental upside, but there are too many rough edges. I wouldn’t roll the dice until the second round.

35. Harrison Ingram
F NORTH CAROLINA Age: 21 Height: 6-5
Ingram might be slightly too slow and slightly too unskilled to make it as a rotation player, but the league is starving for guys in his size profile who can dribble and pass, and he checks those boxes. If he hits, he’s going to end up being a valuable player.

Ingram made an encouraging 38.5 percent of his 3s this past season, but he shot only 34.5 percent from 3 over his college career to go with a ghastly 62.4 percent from the line. He also doesn’t pop athletically, especially in terms of getting separation, but a 7-0 1/4 wingspan makes up for his coming up short, literally, in socks (6-5 1/4) at the combine – just a wee bit shy of the 6-7 he was listed at through college.

Ingram, however, is a pretty good leaper and outperforms on the glass, with an eye-popping 18.5 percent rebound rate in ACC games last season. He also can handle the ball and distribute well enough that he operated as Stanford’s de facto point guard for two seasons before transferring to North Carolina. Defensively, his tape was solid as an on-ball defender, and he has some handsy-ness to go with his basketball IQ.

He kept those trend lines up in the combine games, where he had 19 points, 10 rebounds, seven assists and four steals across the two contests in 45 total minutes. I’m surprised his combine performance didn’t get more attention, as he was one of the best players there. Between his positional value, varied skill set and being a relatively young junior who won’t turn 22 until November, Ingram seems underrated right now.

36. Tyler Kolek
G MARQUETTE Age: 23 Height: 6-1
Kolek is already 23, but he’s a left-handed pick-and-roll maestro who averaged 13.5 assists per 100 possessions and shot 55.2 percent on 2s. He’s also a good shooter with his feet set, although his release is slow and he doesn’t seem comfortable launching coming off or around screens; that’s why he only took 6.8 3s per 100 possessions, low volume for a skill-based guard prospect. His high-arcing shot barely rotates in the air but splashes regularly; he’s an 81.9 percent career foul shooter and made 38.8 percent from 3 his final season at Marquette.

Kolek, however, can be prone to turnovers; he’s so focused on jailing the defender in pick-and-roll that he barely seems to notice what’s in front of him. He’s also left-handed and a bit small – listed at 6-3 at Marquette – he measured 6-1 1/4 in socks at the combine. A 27-inch no-step vertical won’t get anyone’s blood pumping either.

Kolek rebounds well for his size and has a solid steal rate, but I think his feet will be challenged at the next level. He projects to be a solid backup, but it’s harder to see starter-level outcomes, and if he’s not good enough to keep the ball in his hands all the time, I’m not sure what his role is.

37. Kyshawn George
F MIAMI (FLA.) Age: 20 Height: 6-7
George is already 20 but got his first taste of high-level basketball with the Hurricanes this year after arriving from Switzerland. He has perimeter skill and is comfortable shooting from deep, with the size to see over closeouts and fire away. George made 40.8 percent of his 3s on plentiful volume, and his high assist rate for a forward indicates he can move it to the next guy when an opening isn’t there.

Athletically, however, George underwhelms. His no-step vertical was just 27 inches at the combine, and he had a pathetic 7.3 percent rebound rate at Miami. Offensively, he has no juice whatsoever inside the arc, shooting just 46.7 percent on his rare 2-point forays, with a high turnover rate and few free throws.

On a more positive note, George's steals and blocks rates were credible for an NBA prospect, and for somebody with no burst, I was surprised by how well he could hang on defense. Even though he was usually bigger than his opponent, he liked to play up on dribblers and get into the ball, and his first slide was solid. He just had no catch-up speed if he was initially beat.

Overall, there’s a believable 3-and-D package here, but the low-wattage athleticism and shot creation puts a hard ceiling on it. Even if George hits, it likely will be as a low-volume offensive player chilling in the corners most trips.

38. Juan Nunez
G RATIOPHARM ULM Age: 20 Height: 6-4
Nunez just turned 20 and already is a very effective player in the German league who throws saucy left-handed dimes; he also gets reps for Spain’s national team. Despite that, his combination of limited athleticism and iffy shooting has teams left struggling to get too excited about him. Specifically, the dude cannot jump – a 22-inch no-step vertical has to be some kind of record for a guard prospect.

While the athleticism stands out on his stat sheet in some ways (two blocks in his last 2,500 minutes), Nunez offsets that with a tremendous nose for the ball. His rebound rates are excellent for a point guard (9.6 percent this season, 10.3 percent last season), and his 3.7 percent steal percentage nearly led the Basketball Bundesliga.

He’s also a bona fide point guard at 6-4, with more than an assist every five minutes this season and more than two dimes for every turnover. All of that would make him pretty easy to buy into, despite the athleticism questions … if he could shoot.

Nunez has shot exactly 60.7 percent from the foul line each of the past two seasons. No es gran, Roberto. From the 3-point line, he has shot 31.9 percent two years in a row. While his consistency is admirable, Nunez has to be a plus shooter to succeed on an NBA floor, and at the moment, he’s nowhere close. A glass-half-full perspective is that his shot doesn’t look overtly broken; it just doesn’t go in much.

Nonetheless, his age and stashability (he reportedly signed a new deal with FC Barcelona) make him a solid pick at this point in the draft. Teams can either see his shot develop and bring him over as a plug-and-play rotation guard or don’t have to bother rostering the pick if he can’t fix his shot.

39. Jamal Shead
G HOUSTON Age: 21 Height: 6-0
An undersized bulldog with a questionable outside stroke, Shead has elements of a poor man’s Kyle Lowry if he can just straighten out the 3. His pure activity was enough to generate 27 points and 10 assists in two combine games, and as a backup point guard, he profiles as somebody who can provide a jolt despite his size and shooting question marks.

Shead only shot 29.2 percent from 3 for his college career, he measured 6-0 1/4 in socks at the combine and he turns 22 in July. That’s enough for some to cross him off their list right away, but he’s a hyper-defender who generated 4.3 steals per 100 possessions in Houston’s high-pressure defensive system, and he worked well enough as a distributor to hand out three dimes for every turnover.

He’ll need those passing numbers to translate, because Shead’s shooting woes aren’t just outside the arc; he only made 45.1 percent of his shots inside the arc in Big 12 play, with his size making it harder for him to get clean finishes at the rim.

Tier 11 - Roll the dice
40. AJ Johnson
G ILLAWARRA Age: 19 Height: 6-4
Johnson had a rough season in Australia, finishing with a 7.0 PER in 239 minutes. The shooting is a real question: Forget shooting from distance, he barely made a third of his 2s.

That said, Johnson’s performance in the combine scrimmages likely earned him a lot of grace for his rough year overseas. He won’t turn 20 until December, and we’re nearly out of teenage prodigies to bet on at this point on the board. Additionally, he played against older prospects at the combine and finished 7 of 14 from the field with 10 assists and one turnover in the two games. Included in that total was a flying dunk down the lane that every scout there will tell you was the most memorable play of the week.

I’m not going to readjust my board because somebody had a cool dunk, but Johnson’s pre-Australia priors were strong – he was a five-star recruit in 2023 before decommitting from Texas to venture Down Under – and his overall combine performance was reasonably convincing. He’ll have to play point guard because he’s so thin and his shooting remains a concern, so I can’t give him a first-round grade. But he’s definitely … interesting.

41. Nikola Djurišić
F KK MEGA BEMAX Age: 20 Height: 6-7
Durišić is good enough that I wouldn’t consider him a pure stash – more like somebody you leave overseas for one more year and then bring over. He’s already a solid player in the Adriatic League and could potentially be more if he can shoot consistently.

He measured 6-7 in socks at the combine, although he had a short wingspan, making him a legit small forward. That makes his other standout feature more compelling: He can really pass, averaging nearly four dimes a game in Europe this year, and remember, overseas scorekeepers are much less willing to credit assists.

On the downside, Đurišić shot only 30.5 percent from 3 last season after making just 21.4 percent the year before; despite that, he took about a third of his shots from 3 in both seasons. His foul shooting has been only slightly more consistent (69.1 percent in 2022-23, 76.1 percent in 2023-24). Additionally, his six-percent rebound rate is just plain sad for a player of this size.

Durišić helped himself at the combine, scoring 20 points in 32 minutes and only committing two turnovers; notably, he made several jump shots on the second day. His shooting numbers this season were notably improved from the year before, so it’s possible this part of his game is coming around.

42. Jaylen Wells
F WASHINGTON STATE Age: 20 Height: 6-7
Wells is 6-7 and shot 41.7 percent from 3 in 2023-24. Yes, tell me more. Every team in the league is looking for his skill-size intersection. Arriving in the Pac-12 as a relative unknown from Sonoma State, Wells played as a role player even in college but did exceedingly well. In addition to the 3s, he had a microscopic turnover rate (just 1.4 per 100 possessions) and added some scoring juice inside the arc. He also shot 81.4 percent from the line, in case you were worried the 3-point shooting was a fluke.

That said, Wells has some limitations that likely cap him as an NBA role player. He had exceptionally low rates of blocks and steals – despite standing 6-7, he only blocked eight shots all season – he was a poor rebounder and rarely created for others. The combine games highlighted some of these deficits, as he had just three rebounds, one steal and zero assists in two games. He also missed some open 3s he’d typically make and still managed to score 13 points in the second game, but it wasn’t exactly an eye-catching performance.

43. Ajay Mitchell
G UC SANTA BARBARA Age: 22 Height: 6-3
An unusual player who requires several viewings to get a handle on, Mitchell is a strong lefty who has a variety of finishes in the paint area and thrived putting small guards in jail on the block. I’m not sure that will work as well in the NBA as it did in the Big West, but he has other skills to fall back on, as he showed at the combine when he ran the point for two games and handed out nine assists.

A big swing skill for Mitchell will be his 3-point shooting; he upped his percentage to 39.3 percent this past season but on very low volume. From a flat-footed standstill, he has a low release and it’s a bit slow getting out, but it’s fine – his 81.8 percent career mark from the line supports that.

Where things get weird is on the move, where it seems like a hidden grappling hook off screens is tugging him to his right; watching him shoot before a game, he consistently ended up several inches to the right of his takeoff spot. That balance issue is important because he will need to shoot 3s off the bounce at the next level, and right now, that’s not in his bag.

Physically, Mitchell is not an elite athlete by any stretch, but he has a strong base and a solid frame that should help him guard up a position on defense if he needs to. Mitchell has a Belgian passport, incidentally, but it seems unlikely that he would be selected as a stash pick.

44. Cam Christie
G MINNESOTA Age: 18 Height: 6-5
The brother of Los Angeles Lakers guard Max Christie, Cam Christie shot 39.1 percent from 3 on fairly high volume in his one season in Minnesota. Because of that and his positional size, there’s an obvious hope that he can be a reasonable 3-and-D guy.

However, even relative to the other one-and-done guys in this draft, the Christie steak seems severely undercooked. He only shot 40.8 percent on 2s in Big Ten games and was often a secondary option on a team that wasn’t exactly overflowing with talent. The athletic markers (blocks/steals/rebounds/free throws) are all underwhelming too. The biggest reason to select Christie is his birth certificate – he’s the youngest collegian in this draft, beating Bub Carrington by three days, but Carrington’s freshman season was far more productive.

That said, the eye test on Christie’s athleticism is better than his stats – he can run and jump, and his tape shows him sliding his feet and keeping dribblers out of harm’s way. He just doesn’t make many plays; maybe that changes in time. Christie is a developmental play who a team would probably want on a two-way for all of 2024-25 rather than burning a roster spot, but he’s the last legit college prospect on the board who can’t legally enter a bar.

45. Trentyn Flowers
G ADELAIDE Age: 19 Height: 6-7
Flowers is 19, measured 6-6 1/2 in socks and posted a 34.5-inch no-step vertical – only three players at the combine topped it. He shot 5 of 5 in his first combine game, and while he certainly wasn’t good in Australia this past year, he wasn’t destructively bad once Adelaide stopped a ridiculous experiment to play him at point guard.

Flowers doesn’t always use his athleticism in the course of a game – how did he only block two shots in 300 minutes? – and three turnovers for every assist is definitely a red flag. His best developmental pathway might be as a shooting specialist who can add the ability to get downhill in straight lines, but his impact is likely to be limited unless he can read the game a bit better and fill out more physically (he was only 201 pounds at the combine).

He's an interesting bet because there just isn’t a lot of good information here: He hasn’t played in a game since January, and he was a half-notch below the top recruits who played in events like the Hoop Summit and Jordan Classic. Still, virtually any teenager who shows some ability is a better bet than the sea of 23- and 24-year-olds left on the board at this point in the draft.

Tier 12 - Old guys
46. Enrique Freeman
F AKRON Age: 23 Height: 6-7
Freeman might have the most compelling backstory of any other prospect in the last decade. He went to Akron on an academic scholarship and walked onto the team because a coach saw him crushing in pickup.

Four years later, Freeman ended up graduating as the best player in the Mid-America Conference and hanging 21 and 14 on Creighton in an NCAA Tournament game. While he was there, he picked up his MBA.

Freeman measured at just 6-7 1/4 in socks at the combine and only 212 pounds, but he played center at Akron and led the nation in rebound rate at 23.2 percent. His vertical isn’t that impressive – 30 1/2 inches on his no-step vertical – but he’s what scouts call “bouncy,” getting off the floor quickly and hopping back up right away on his second jump.

Obviously, he’ll need to change positions as a pro. Freeman added a 3-pointer to his arsenal last season and is clearly still developing, so his age might be “younger” than it is for most. Still, he’s ancient for a prospect, turning 24 in July, and his poor rates of steals and assists are indicative of ways he might struggle on the perimeter at the next level.

Freeman likely quelled a lot of doubts by his performance at the combine, where he was a standout in the on-court sessions and finished his two games with 29 points and five steals. He’s a strong two-way candidate who might even get a roster contract if he lands in the right place.

47. Dillon Jones
G WEBER STATE Age: 22 Height: 6-5
Jones is an odd player, one who isn’t a great shooter or much of a leaper, has a football player’s body and turns 23 in October. Yet, he impacts the stat sheet in enough ways that he might still be a top-40 guy.

Let’s start with the bad news. Jones only jumped 26 1/2 inches at the combine in his no-step vertical and weighed in at 236.8 pounds, easily the heaviest of any perimeter player. Those dimensions are great for a nose tackle, not so great for a shooting guard. Also, he shot just 32.0 percent from 3 in his college career, including 32.4 percent in his final season, and some of his passing skill is offset by a sky-high turnover rate.

That said … there are enough oddball, disparate strengths here to think he could be a valuable player if the 3 straightens out. Jones has very long arms – a 6-11 wingspan – helping him overcome his athletic deficits. He has a great nose for the ball, too, with a mind-boggling career defensive rebound rate of 32.1 percent. Sure, this was in the Big Sky Conference, but it stands out anywhere, and it has translated to higher-level environments. (Jones’ rate this year was second in the entire nation; again, he is a 6-5 guard.)

Jones’ length also is an equalizer for him on defense, where he picked 3.2 steals per 100 possessions. He handles the ball well for his size and is a bowling ball going down the lane, drawing heaps of fouls in the process.

As for the shot? Jones shot 85.7 percent from the line last season and 82.3 percent for his career, offering some hope that the underlying skill is there to eventually knock down 3s more consistently.

There are questions about his competition level, but in two combine games, he did his usual stat-stuffing thing with 13 rebounds and nine assists while earning nine free-throw attempts. He only shot 3 of 12 from the floor, including missing all five of his 3s, and it may be that his bully-ball style just doesn’t work at the next level. But at this point of the draft, he’s worth a shot.

48. Jalen Bridges
F BAYLOR Age: 23 Height: 6-7
Bridges isn’t much to look at athletically, but he’s 6-7 with a 6-10 wingspan, shot 41.2 percent from 3 last season and is just good enough on the ball to avert disaster if he’s asked to create something. While last year’s 3-point performance might have been a slight outlier, the southpaw profiles as a plus shooter who can occasionally score in the paint when he has an advantage, and that played out in his two combine games.

All of this pencils out as “third-best guy on his G League team” as often as not, especially since Bridges is already 23. Bridges is here in a sea of other older wing candidates. Among the group, he’s probably the least athletic but the most skilled, and his size is a plus if he can really play the three full-time. As always, I’m interested in any 6-7 guys with perimeter skills on draft night; while Bridges isn’t exactly the type of prospect who has you feverishly texting the GM immediately after the game, he has a decent chance to stick.

49. Terrence Shannon Jr.
F ILLINOIS Age: 23 Height: 6-6
Off the court, Shannon was found not guilty of charges of rape and aggravated sexual battery in a case that saw him briefly suspended from the Illinois team this past season. He turns 24 in July, which makes him superannuated even by the standards of this portion of the draft. I’ve been tracking the southpaw as a draft prospect since his freshman season at Texas Tech, and the on-court pros and cons remain largely the same: He’s an athletic wing who can get downhill to the rim, but he’s a shaky skill guy whose shooting comes and goes, he doesn’t see the floor well and he is extremely left-hand dominant.

Shannon, however, improved to 36.2 percent from 3 and 80.1 percent from the line this past season. The finishing package was too much for college opponents to handle: He shot 56.3 percent on 2s in Big Ten play, with a mammoth free-throw rate. That said, he’s not going to overwhelm NBA opponents like this; his other athletic indicators were pretty ordinary.

50. Pelle Larsson
G ARIZONA Age: 23 Height: 6-5
Another 23-year-old, Larsson’s Swedish passport could give him a leg up on getting drafted if he is willing to play overseas for a bit.

If he stays stateside, however, he also has a clear pathway to back-end rotation minutes because of his shooting. Watching Larsson shoot before games this past season was a treat; it’s all high arcs and clean swishes. He shot 42.6 percent from 3 in the actual games; his career marks of 39.7 percent from 3 and 81.3 percent from the line offer a massive sample size that he can stroke it.

The only question is why didn’t he do it more? Just 5.4 3-point attempts per 100 for a player with a stroke like his is baffling. Larsson can do other stuff, though; he shot 57.8 percent on 2s in Pac-12 games, with an unusually high assist rate for a wing and nearly two dimes for every turnover. He was a relatively low-usage player even in college, but he can be an efficient role player.

Defensively Larsson is more suspect, creating few events while still fouling like crazy and making little impact on the glass. Between that and his age, his upside likely tops out as a back-end role player, but he’s a reasonable pick once we get into the 40s.
 
Tier 13 - I do not get it
51. Tristan da Silva
F COLORADO Age: 23 Height: 6-8
Here’s my Johnny Davis/Jalen Hood-Schifino special for 2024. Da Silva has been getting top-20 buzz that I just don’t understand. He’s 23 and his statistical profile is basically indistinguishable from guys like Jalen Bridges and Pelle Larsson. I’ve seen him in person and several times on TV and am trying to figure out what I’m missing here; maybe I’m just too dense to see it, but I haven’t.

Even relative to the other old guys in this draft, da Silva’s résumé is pretty underwhelming – he’s a good but not great shooter on low-ish volume from 3 who floats through games and doesn’t show much in the way of plus physical or athletic traits. Compared to Larsson, for instance, who is the same age and played in the same league, da Silva was a worse 2-point scorer and a dramatically less impactful passer, without any real advantage to counteract that.

Da Silva does check a size/shooting box at 6-8, but he struggles to get separation on offense and doesn't show a whole lot of resistance on the defensive end. He gets beat laterally, shoved aside physically and leaves his feet on shot-fakes. The only positive is that he has enough experience chasing his man from behind that he’s become somewhat adept at blocking shots that way.

Da Silva’s set shot from 3 is nice, though, with a perfect arc, and he showed some hints of grab-and-go potential. Still, it’s one thing to take a 23-year-old in the first round if it’s somebody like Dalton Knecht, who razes the SEC to the ground. It’s quite another to take one who was the second-best player on the nation’s 40th-best team and didn’t make the cut for the 10-man All-Pac-12 squad. He’s a two-way guy for me.

52. Bronny James
G USC Age: 19 Height: 6-2
This ranking won’t surprise people who have been tracking this all year, but those just checking in now on draft news might be surprised to hear the younger James is a fairly fringy draft prospect.

Let’s review. He isn’t a point guard because he has a rather poor handle for a player his size, so his measuring 6-1 1/2 in socks at the combine was a bummer. On the other hand, he has a 6-7 wingspan and a 32-inch no-step vertical, attributes that should allow him to play bigger than his size. Between that and his solid frame, he should be able to guard most twos if he can stop fouling so much.

The offensive end, however, is the bigger concern. What does he do? James had a 10.3 PER on 47.2 percent true shooting at USC, coming off the bench for a team that went 15-18. He shows flashes of passing acumen, but it’s only flashes because he’s rarely compromising the defense in the first place – he just doesn’t have the handle or first step to do that.

That leaves him more dependent on being a catch-and-shoot threat, and right now, he’s not. James shot 26.7 percent from 3 and 67.6 percent from the line at USC, and while I’d argue his form is better than his numbers, he’s pretty clearly a long way away from being a threat in an NBA game.

James is a reasonable developmental prospect on a two-way, in the hope that his shot comes around and he can become sort of a mini-Lu Dort with his frame and defense. I’ll note that I’ve seen him play in person several times, and despite the last name, he gives off absolutely zero sense of entitlement; he just shows up and plays team basketball. The issue here is more about talent, believe it or not. At his size, he just needs way more skill to crack an NBA rotation.

53. Kevin McCullar
F KANSAS Age: 23 Height: 6-5
McCullar is a winning college basketball player who does a lot of “little things,” so his draft buzz didn’t emerge from vapor. Nonetheless, his transition to the NBA is likely to be extremely challenging. He’s another 23-year-old, and he measured a disappointing 6-5 1/4 in socks at the combine. (He was listed at 6-7 at Kansas.)

Offensively, McCullar has to show he can space the floor; he was a career 30.9 percent 3-point shooter on extremely low volume in college. It’s not like he was tearing teams up inside the arc, either; he was a secondary scorer at both Texas Tech and Kansas until leading the Jayhawks in scoring in his fifth season, and even then, he did it with just a 51.2 true shooting percentage in Big 12 games.

McCullar has also struggled with injuries (he played 30 games just once in his five college seasons). There are positives here – a high steal rate and generally good defensive tape offer some promise on that end, and his passing instincts are solid enough to make a good secondary playmaker. I’d like him a lot better as a potential energy guy on a two-way.

54. Ulrich Chomche
C NBA DEVELOPMENT ACADEMY Age: 18 Height: 6-10
Chomche was getting first-round buzz earlier this spring, but his performances at the Hoop Summit and the combine were underwhelming, to say the least. There are the rough outlines of a player – he has a good frame with long arms (7-4 wingspan and 9-1 standing reach), he shows some facility as a passer, and his shot isn’t broken.

However, he is plagued by the scourge of big men – bad hands – and in the two prospect-laden events in which he played this year, the game at both ends moved waaaaay too fast for him. He needs a year in a developmental league just to reach the point where we can evaluate him more properly as a prospect, let alone bank on him being part of an NBA team’s future.

55. Bobi Klintman
F CAIRNS TAIPANS Age: 21 Height: 6-9
If I may damn Tristan da Silva with faint praise … he’s surely at least better than Klintman. Klintman has been a big Mock Draft Guy for two years in a row despite his results on the court, playing as a meh backup as a 20-year-old in the ACC (12.0 PER in 33 games for Wake Forest) in 2022-2023 and an unremarkable player as a 21-year-old in the fairly low-level Australian league in 2023-24. (He shot 43 percent on 2s, with nearly two turnovers for every assist. Yikes.)

Both in college and in Australia, Klintman had low per-possession rates in the assists and steals categories that often are tip-offs to “maybe there’s something more here.” Instead, the attraction seems to be the theoretical prospect of a mid-30s 3-point shooter suddenly turning into Ryan Anderson. Crazier things have happened, I suppose; Klintman has size and can rebound and could be a developmental late bloomer after not playing high-level competition in his native Sweden.

In the broader outline, he’s a bad defender without much in the way of offsetting positives unless he’s going to become cash from the 3-point line. I can’t imagine using a first-round pick on him; for me, he’s an overseas stash pick or a developmental two-way.

Tier 14 - Stash picks
56. Melvin Ajinça
F SAINT QUENTIN Age: 20 Height: 6-7
Ajinca turns 20 on draft night (the first one, I should specify) and shot a 3-pointer every 4.5 minutes last year, making 35.7 percent of them. He also blocked just two shots the entire season as a 6-7 forward in the kinda-mid French league and made fewer than half of his rare 2-point attempts.

Combined with his measuring with a short wingspan and a 26 1/2-inch no-step vertical at the combine, it paints a clear picture: This guy had better rain fire from 3, because there’s not a lot of other elements here to get excited about at the NBA level.

57. Armel Traore
F ADA BLOIS BASKET Age: 21 Height: 6-8
I kind of like this guy and don’t think he’s been talked about enough. Traore can’t shoot right now, making 28.1 percent from 3 and 64.6 percent from the line in France last season, but he has the size, length and athleticism to play at the next level. He popped off the screen in 2022-23 in cameos as a teammate of Victor Wembanyama and Bilal Coulibaly, then took on a more prominent role this season in Blois.

Traore also posted a 17.1 PER in the French league, which is better than that of Ajinca, Risacher or Salaun. Traore is 21, so it’s not an apples-to-apples comparison, but it gives you some idea of the fact that he’s not a total stiff right now, and if he ever shoots, he’ll have genuine value.

58. Ariel Hukporti
C MHP-RIESEN Age: 22 Height: 6-11
A fairly generic 22-year-old beast-ball big, Hukporti doesn’t exactly scream upside, but he has a German passport that makes him a strong stash candidate. He enjoyed a successful season with Melbourne this past year before signing for a brief cameo in Germany with MHP-Riesen at the end. (Australia’s season ends earlier, so players can double-dip like this.)

The big man has been on the NBA radar for years now, making an impression by winning MVP at the 2020 Basketball Without Borders camp before leading a nomadic existence as an overseas pro.

Tier 15 - Two-ways
59. Reece Beekman
G VIRGINIA Age: 22 Height: 6-1
The ACC Defensive Player of the Year, Beekman is an outstanding defender for his size but is going to have trouble convincing teams his offense is good enough to keep him on the court for defense, especially since you don’t see many defensive specialists at point guard. While he had a high assist rate at Virginia, the Cavaliers’ system was heavy on pindowns that created easy assist chances without generating particularly valuable shots; he hasn’t shown many moments of being a spicy pick-and-roll creator or a notably incisive passer.

As a shooter, you wouldn’t necessarily say the shot is broken, but you sure wouldn’t call it good; Beekman made 31.0 percent of his 3s on relatively low volume and doesn’t get into his shot easily on the move. He’s also a very right-handed offensive player, though he showed some more variety in his final season in Charlottesville.

60. Isaac Jones
F, C WASHINGTON STATE Age: 23 Height: 6-8
Jones turns 24 in July and for most of this season looked like another pretty good college big who would end up in Europe. However, he was fantastic in the postseason scouting circuit, dominating in Portsmouth and at the G League Elite Camp and holding his own in the combine scrimmages. One thing that helps: He can pass, dishing out six dimes in his two combine games; we didn’t get to see that much of this with the Cougars.

That said, there are obvious concerns about Jones’ age, size and lack of a true perimeter skill set. He measured only 6-7 3/4 in socks at the combine and made only seven 3-pointers in his two college seasons. He does show some pop as a finisher around the basket, and his 7-3 wingspan offsets some of his height disadvantage. This wouldn’t exactly be a high-ceiling pick, especially given his age, but Jones might be able to challenge for rotation minutes immediately.

61. PJ Hall
F, C CLEMSON Age: 22 Height: 6-8
Hall put in a pretty good combine performance in 2023 before pulling out of the draft, but opted not to play in 2024’s scrimmages. It’s possible I’m too low on him: Hall offers an interesting skill combination with a 7-1 wingspan and some springiness off the floor that could allow him to play minutes at center, but he also has the outlines of a stretch skill set that might allow him to play time at the four.

The key is whether those skills just leave him a positionless tweener or allow him to toggle across both. Hall didn’t have an overwhelming senior year, but he’s slightly younger than most of the other “seniors” here since he didn’t stay for a fifth season, turning 22 in February. He was a key player in the Tigers’ run to the Elite Eight, however, and if his stat outline isn’t overwhelming, neither is there anything overly tragic that disqualifies him. With slightly more upside than most of the players we’re looking at in this realm, he’d be a good player to have on a two-way or end-of-roster contract.

62. Zyon Pullin
G FLORIDA Age: 23 Height: 6-4
This is the one old guy I might like a bit better than the masses. Pullin is 23; he played four years at UC-Riverside before transferring to Florida last season, where he forced his way into the starting lineup by hardly ever making a mistake. Pullin had an amazing 4-to-1 assist-to-turnover rate, which is crazy considering he often wasn’t even playing point guard; he also shot 44.9 percent from 3, albeit on extremely low volume, and made 84.7 percent from the line.

His other stats are indicative of some athletic deficits that may swamp him as a pro: very low rates of blocks, steals and rebounds and just 44.2 percent shooting inside the arc. But he drew a ton of fouls, and his ball skill is indicative of feel and instincts that could pop at the NBA level.

63. Tristen Newton
G CONNECTICUT Age: 23 Height:6-3
It may surprise some college fans to learn that the Most Outstanding Player of the 2024 Final Four is only 50-50 to hear his name called at the draft. His iffy shooting is the biggest issue, but he also doesn’t profile as an elite prospect in other ways: Newton shot only 44.4 percent on 2s in Big East games, his rates of defensive events are low for a guard prospect, and he turned 23 in April. Additionally, his decision to sit out the combine scrimmages might not have been wise.

Newton does pack some positives, particularly an off-the-charts rebound rate for a guard, and his ability to run an offense and get the ball to the right places could see teams value him as a third point guard at the end of the roster.

64. N’Faly Dante
C OREGON Age: 22 Height: 6-10
Dante played five injury-riddled seasons at Oregon but isn’t even that old, turning 23 in October; he was recently denied a petition by the NCAA to play an additional season. As a big man, he offers a straightforward package of finishing and rebounding without a ton of skill to surround it. He’s not the most clever passer and is just looking to get a bucket once he catches the ball, but his size and length make him a pretty effective finisher despite only average leaping ability.

Defensively, he might be a bit underrated; he played drop coverage at Oregon but gets his hands on a lot of balls (2.8 steals per 100) and offers credible rim protection (7.0 percent block rate in Pac-12 games). Non-stretch centers without explosive hops don’t tend to get pulses racing on draft night, but Dante has a ceiling as a rotation backup.

65. Judah Mintz
G SYRACUSE Age: 20 Height: 6-3
An actual young guy! Mintz turns 21 in July, setting him apart from virtually every other prospect in this part of the draft board. The other thing that separates him, alas, is a 29.1 percent career shooting mark from 3. Mintz wasn’t notably good inside the arc, either, only converting 47.7 percent of his 2s in ACC play over his two seasons at Syracuse.

Other elements of his box score line are more encouraging: He drew fouls at a high rate and plucked 3.1 steals per 100 possessions in conference play despite having short arms. He also has a knack for eye-catching passes, even if his overall assist rate was pretty ordinary and there were too many turnovers along the way. A middling showing in the G League Elite Camp likely eliminated Mintz from the “draftable 58” on most boards, but he’s definitely worth looking at on a two-way.

66. Isaiah Crawford
F LOUISIANA TECH Age: 22 Height: 6-5
Crawford is a fifth-year senior from a small conference but has a lot of positives in both his statistical production and tape that indicate he could be a sleeper. While he measured small for a player who played the four in college, Crawford has a “plus-7” wingspan of 7-0 1/4 that allows him to play bigger than his height. And for an old prospect, he’s not even that old, turning 23 in November.

Crawford failed to stand out at the G League Elite camp and doesn’t possess elite athleticism, but between his shooting promise, his positional fit (everyone needs wings!) and his physical dimensions, this seems like the right type of player to roll the dice on with a two-way slot.

67. Antonio Reeves
G KENTUCKY Age: 23 Height: 6-5
Reeves can really shoot, hitting 44.7 percent from 3 and 86.3 percent from the line last season. While that is pretty much the beginning and end of his resume, that alone is likely to get him some opportunities. Reeves’ movement also gives him a chance to make an impact even if the shots aren’t falling; in the combine games, he shot just 2 of 10 from 3 but still managed to tally 26 points and six assists in the two contests.

While he’s not exactly a dynamic ball hawk on defense (his steals rate was a pathetic 1.1 per 100 possessions), Reeves measured 6-4 1/2 in socks with a 6-8 1/4 wingspan at the combine. That gives reasonable hope that he can line up against opposing twos and not be complete toast.

Turning 24 in November after a five-year career that began at Illinois State, Reeves is likely too limited to stick in the league for long, but his shooting is a wild card that gives him a chance.

68. Cam Spencer
G CONNECTICUT Age: 24 Height: 6-3
Spencer was a delight to watch at UConn but faces an uphill battle to stick at the next level. It’s hard to overstate how small he looked against other wing prospects at the combine, where he measured 6-3 in socks and posted a 23-inch no-step vertical. In the games, he struggled to get to his spots and finished 4 of 15 from the floor with seven fouls in 35 minutes.

Spencer also turned 24 in April, so this isn’t exactly an upside play. But it’s possible the combine highlighted his warts too harshly. Spencer’s shooting is real (he shot 44 percent from 3 and 91.1 percent from the line last season), and he’s a good passer who also makes phenomenally few turnovers. Finding a defensive home for him and creating conditions where he can get enough shots away to make his mark will always be questions, but in the right system, he has a chance to be an impact two-way.

69. David Jones
G MEMPHIS Age: 22 Height: 6-4
Jones’ draft combine was a disaster, but the wider body of work suggests there might be a decent prospect here. While his listed height of 6-6 at Memphis was laughable – he measured 6-3 1/2 in socks at the combine – Jones has an incredible nose for the ball, posting an impressive rebound rate for a player of his height (12.9 percent) and pilfering 3.8 steals per 100 possessions. He also improved to 38 percent from 3 last season and 79.7 percent from the line, cleaning up what had been the shakiest part of his game, and is a year younger than most “seniors” in this draft because he only played four years of college.

The adjustment for him at the next level is to stop trying to take everyone one-on-one and play as an off-ball role player. If he buys into that and harnesses his defensive instincts, he has a chance to be a useful 3-and-D player.

70. Anton Watson
F GONZAGA Age: 23 Height: 6-8
An impact defender with long arms and an unusually high steal rate for a player of his size (3.3 steals per 100 possessions), Watson is an effective paint finisher who made 63.6 percent of his 2s in his career at Gonzaga but rarely shot 3s and wasn’t effective from distance (30.7 percent career) or the line (62.7 percent).

As a developmental player, there’s some mild hope that a shooting boost could see him become enough of a floor spacer to keep him on the court for his defense, but he also turns 24 in October, so the clock is ticking. His age and limited offense make it hard to draft him, but as a two-way, he’s interesting.

71. Isaiah Stevens
G COLORADO STATE Age: 23 Height: 5-11
Stevens seems almost pre-ordained to follow in the footsteps of luminaries such as Doug Overton and Anthony Goldwire, a perfectly good emergency point guard who can come in, run the offense and soak up some minutes for exactly 10 days before being returned to the G League when better players become healthy. Stevens is a career 40.2 percent 3-point shooter who proved he can run an offense adeptly at Colorado State, but he lacks blazing speed, measured 5-11 at the G League Elite Camp and failed to stand out in the scrimmages.

72. Keshad Johnson
F ARIZONA Age: 23 Height: 6-6
Johnson turned 23 three days before the draft after spending his fifth college season with Arizona; previously, he’d played at San Diego State, playing a key role in the Aztecs’ run to the 2023 national title game. He’s a big-framed forward who can move, and scouts have looked at him as an energy guy who can run the floor and defend.

His combine performance was perhaps humbling in this respect, as he just couldn’t impact the game offensively and mostly operated on the fringes; he also measured just 6-6 1/4 in socks with a 6-10 1/4 wingspan, which would leave him quite undersized against most fours.

That hurts because Johnson doesn’t really have the skill to play the three. He started shooting 3s this past season and made 38.7 percent, but he only shoots the wide-open ones, and a 64.2 percent career mark from the line doesn’t augur well for his future marksmanship. Johnson also had pretty low rates of blocks and steals for an energy guy. Overall, he’s worth a look with a two-way, but I’d have a hard time being convinced to use a draft pick on him.

73. Quinten Post
C BOSTON COLLEGE Age: 24 Height: 7-0
Post has a Dutch passport that could allow him to be a late stash pick, but given that he’s already 24, he likely wants to get things rolling on his NBA hopes sooner rather than later. He was the mainstay of a poor Boston College team, a highly skilled big who earned All-ACC honors with a mix of 3s, low-post buckets and passes from the high post and elbow areas.

Post has a strong frame but will be at a disadvantage athletically, particularly on defense. He’ll have to play drop coverage and needs to prove he’s a credible shot blocker and defensive rebounder to stick. His high foul rate (6.1 per 100 possessions in ACC play) and relatively low block rate (2.9 per 100) aren’t promising, and that’s why I’ve rated him as a two-way guy rather than a draftable player. A forgettable stint at the combine probably didn’t help any.

74. Jaylin Williams
F AUBURN Age: 23 Height: 6-7
Sam Presti has a chance to do the funniest thing …

Williams was certainly efficient in his fifth and final season at Auburn; in SEC play, he shot 64.9 percent on 2s, 41.3 percent on 3s and 84.6 percent from the line. He’s a good shooter with his feet set and posted solid assist rates, and he’s a fairly good rebounder for his size. The eye test isn’t quite as effusive, however, as Williams seems a bit slow and underpowered for the perimeter and doesn’t flash much on-ball skill, likely consigning him to life as an undersized four.

75. Aaron Estrada
G ALABAMA Age: 23 Height: 6-3
Estrada’s name hasn’t come up much in the draft world, and partly for good reason: He turns 24 in November and was plying his trade at Hofstra 18 months ago. However, he helped Alabama make the Final Four in his fifth college season and was good enough at the G League Elite Camp that it was surprising he didn’t earn an invite to the main combine, finishing with 14 assists and three turnovers in his two games.

Estrada is a total non-athlete who jumped just 23 1/2 inches on his no-step vertical, and he’s not exactly a knockdown shooter (31.3 percent from 3 last season), although a career 86.3 percent mark from the line offers hope he can do better from distance as a pro. More often than not, this archetype tops out as the third-best player on a G League team, but it’s pick No. 75 in a weak draft. Estrada is likely worth a two-way.
 
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