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Rockets NBA draft notebook 2.0: The No. 4 pick, what to do at No. 20 and more
We’re finally here. Almost.
I want to give a special shout-out to all the folks in this industry who consistently churn out great draft content. Our own Sam Vecenie is a beast and has a fantastic draft guide that you should check out if you haven’t done so already. Elsewhere, you guys do an awesome job of filling the gaps between the ending of the NBA Finals and beginning of free agency in addition to the work around the clock. With that being said, if I see another mock draft, I might puke. Thursday can’t get here soon enough!
By Thursday night, you’ll see Victor Wembanyama in a San Antonio Spurs cap. After that, it’s really anyone’s game. Here’s our final draft notebook, with intel surrounding the Houston Rockets and everything we’re hearing regarding them.
• Over the weekend as the Rockets’ draft contingent discussed prospects with the No. 4 pick, it appeared to a certain degree — both internally and externally — that Overtime Elite’s Amen Thompson wasn’t a lock just yet and that there was some momentum building with Villanova’s Cam Whitmore as well. Given the number of individuals involved in Houston’s process, strong arguments were also heard for players like Anthony Black, Jarace Walker and Taylor Hendricks but the Thompson twins and Whitmore were the names most frequently linked with the franchise.
However, as talks intensified leading up to this week’s midway point with the draft some 24 hours away, Whitmore’s hype train seems to be stuck in its tracks. The Villanova wing’s workout in Houston was more of an informal session, team sources said, compared to that of the Thompson twins. Sources were granted anonymity because they were not authorized to speak on the record. The chatter about his stock sliding grows louder and while the recent national discourse has been Amen or Whitmore, the internal debate has shifted to Amen or Ausar, sources said. League and team sources are becoming increasingly confident the Rockets will stay the course and select Amen with the fourth overall pick should he be on the board.
• There’s an important “should he be on the board” caveat to note. As in the case with any draft in any year, there is always the potential element of surprise. Last season, Houston was fairly locked in on Paolo Banchero with their No. 3 pick, following the league-wide assumptions Jabari Smith Jr. and Chet Holmgren were destined for Orlando and Oklahoma City, respectively — before the Magic pivoted at the 11th hour and took Banchero.
A day before the draft, Rockets officials are only confident in Victor Wembanyama going first overall to San Antonio. The rest, specifically what happens with Charlotte and Portland at No. 2 and No. 3, isn’t cemented in stone. There has been a huge amount of discourse surrounding the latter two franchises and the directions they could go on draft night, with Damian Lillard’s future and New Orleans reported interest in moving up two subplots to watch. Houston’s discussions about finalizing their draft board also involve the surprise scenarios — if a team jumps up to take Amen, if one of Brandon Miller or Scoot Henderson is there etc. A team like the Rockets in a pivotal period must be prepared for every scenario.
• All things considered, Houston is comfortable with the fourth pick. There was an initial wave of disappointment having missed out on a top-three selection in last month’s lottery and league and team sources say the Rockets engaged in conversations with Charlotte and Portland about the concept of moving up. But without knowing exactly what those teams are looking for in a return (and understanding it’s likely a substantial package) it’s unlikely the Rockets move up from No. 4, sources say. For example, the only scenario in which the Blazers would reportedly trade the No. 3 pick would be for a package involving a legitimate win-now veteran, something the Rockets simply don’t have.
• It’s also more likely, sources say, that Houston moves out of the draft entirely than moving back from the fourth pick. Teams have inquired about trading up with the Rockets, sources say, but it would take a serious haul of draft compensation or a combination of a great player and a future pick to warrant a serious discussion. There were different scenarios from interested teams proposed but Houston’s brass would prefer to draft high as opposed to moving back.
• This hasn’t deterred teams from engaging in talks with Houston, however. Although there hasn’t been an offer to this point that the Rockets have given serious consideration, sources say there have been several teams aggressively attempting to pry the No. 4 pick away, offering good starter-level players. Things can always change, but when weighing factors like age and contract of players being offered against the potential upside available at four, there hasn’t been anything that has aligned with what Houston wants to do.
• The more the Rockets have had time to evaluate and dive deeper into this draft class, the more impressed they have been with the talent level. It’s gotten to the point where they are more likely to select a second player than not but it’s more of an on-the-clock situation, sources say. As such, there are several players Houston is targeting at 20 — most of whom have gotten green room invites — and there’s optimism a few could still be on the board by the time the Rockets are on the clock.
• One interesting wrinkle to Houston’s interest is the prospect of moving up from the No. 20 pick. Again, conversations up to this point are mainly conceptual, but there have been discussions about potentially moving up from 20 to a range anywhere from the Miami Heat at No. 18 to the Dallas Mavericks at No. 10, sources say. Some iterations have involved the Rockets adding draft compensation while others have involved their own players or the idea of taking on bad salary. Ideally, Houston wants to preserve their nearly $60 million in cap space for free agency but given the abundance of financial flexibility, they could take on a bad contract if the upside of moving up was deemed worth it. On the flip side, if Houston stays put and the players they like are off the board by the time their pick comes around, they would be more open to trading the selection altogether, sources say.
• In talks with teams, the Rockets have maintained their stance that they aren’t looking to trade anyone from their core — including top-five picks in Jalen Green and Jabari Smith Jr. and lottery picks Alperen Şengün and Tari Eason. Elsewhere, there has been interest in 22-year-old forward Kenyon Martin Jr., sources say, with his combination of age and upside still intriguing to rival NBA teams and deemed attainable internally for the right price.
We’re finally here. Almost.
I want to give a special shout-out to all the folks in this industry who consistently churn out great draft content. Our own Sam Vecenie is a beast and has a fantastic draft guide that you should check out if you haven’t done so already. Elsewhere, you guys do an awesome job of filling the gaps between the ending of the NBA Finals and beginning of free agency in addition to the work around the clock. With that being said, if I see another mock draft, I might puke. Thursday can’t get here soon enough!
By Thursday night, you’ll see Victor Wembanyama in a San Antonio Spurs cap. After that, it’s really anyone’s game. Here’s our final draft notebook, with intel surrounding the Houston Rockets and everything we’re hearing regarding them.
• Over the weekend as the Rockets’ draft contingent discussed prospects with the No. 4 pick, it appeared to a certain degree — both internally and externally — that Overtime Elite’s Amen Thompson wasn’t a lock just yet and that there was some momentum building with Villanova’s Cam Whitmore as well. Given the number of individuals involved in Houston’s process, strong arguments were also heard for players like Anthony Black, Jarace Walker and Taylor Hendricks but the Thompson twins and Whitmore were the names most frequently linked with the franchise.
However, as talks intensified leading up to this week’s midway point with the draft some 24 hours away, Whitmore’s hype train seems to be stuck in its tracks. The Villanova wing’s workout in Houston was more of an informal session, team sources said, compared to that of the Thompson twins. Sources were granted anonymity because they were not authorized to speak on the record. The chatter about his stock sliding grows louder and while the recent national discourse has been Amen or Whitmore, the internal debate has shifted to Amen or Ausar, sources said. League and team sources are becoming increasingly confident the Rockets will stay the course and select Amen with the fourth overall pick should he be on the board.
• There’s an important “should he be on the board” caveat to note. As in the case with any draft in any year, there is always the potential element of surprise. Last season, Houston was fairly locked in on Paolo Banchero with their No. 3 pick, following the league-wide assumptions Jabari Smith Jr. and Chet Holmgren were destined for Orlando and Oklahoma City, respectively — before the Magic pivoted at the 11th hour and took Banchero.
A day before the draft, Rockets officials are only confident in Victor Wembanyama going first overall to San Antonio. The rest, specifically what happens with Charlotte and Portland at No. 2 and No. 3, isn’t cemented in stone. There has been a huge amount of discourse surrounding the latter two franchises and the directions they could go on draft night, with Damian Lillard’s future and New Orleans reported interest in moving up two subplots to watch. Houston’s discussions about finalizing their draft board also involve the surprise scenarios — if a team jumps up to take Amen, if one of Brandon Miller or Scoot Henderson is there etc. A team like the Rockets in a pivotal period must be prepared for every scenario.
• All things considered, Houston is comfortable with the fourth pick. There was an initial wave of disappointment having missed out on a top-three selection in last month’s lottery and league and team sources say the Rockets engaged in conversations with Charlotte and Portland about the concept of moving up. But without knowing exactly what those teams are looking for in a return (and understanding it’s likely a substantial package) it’s unlikely the Rockets move up from No. 4, sources say. For example, the only scenario in which the Blazers would reportedly trade the No. 3 pick would be for a package involving a legitimate win-now veteran, something the Rockets simply don’t have.
• It’s also more likely, sources say, that Houston moves out of the draft entirely than moving back from the fourth pick. Teams have inquired about trading up with the Rockets, sources say, but it would take a serious haul of draft compensation or a combination of a great player and a future pick to warrant a serious discussion. There were different scenarios from interested teams proposed but Houston’s brass would prefer to draft high as opposed to moving back.
• This hasn’t deterred teams from engaging in talks with Houston, however. Although there hasn’t been an offer to this point that the Rockets have given serious consideration, sources say there have been several teams aggressively attempting to pry the No. 4 pick away, offering good starter-level players. Things can always change, but when weighing factors like age and contract of players being offered against the potential upside available at four, there hasn’t been anything that has aligned with what Houston wants to do.
• The more the Rockets have had time to evaluate and dive deeper into this draft class, the more impressed they have been with the talent level. It’s gotten to the point where they are more likely to select a second player than not but it’s more of an on-the-clock situation, sources say. As such, there are several players Houston is targeting at 20 — most of whom have gotten green room invites — and there’s optimism a few could still be on the board by the time the Rockets are on the clock.
• One interesting wrinkle to Houston’s interest is the prospect of moving up from the No. 20 pick. Again, conversations up to this point are mainly conceptual, but there have been discussions about potentially moving up from 20 to a range anywhere from the Miami Heat at No. 18 to the Dallas Mavericks at No. 10, sources say. Some iterations have involved the Rockets adding draft compensation while others have involved their own players or the idea of taking on bad salary. Ideally, Houston wants to preserve their nearly $60 million in cap space for free agency but given the abundance of financial flexibility, they could take on a bad contract if the upside of moving up was deemed worth it. On the flip side, if Houston stays put and the players they like are off the board by the time their pick comes around, they would be more open to trading the selection altogether, sources say.
• In talks with teams, the Rockets have maintained their stance that they aren’t looking to trade anyone from their core — including top-five picks in Jalen Green and Jabari Smith Jr. and lottery picks Alperen Şengün and Tari Eason. Elsewhere, there has been interest in 22-year-old forward Kenyon Martin Jr., sources say, with his combination of age and upside still intriguing to rival NBA teams and deemed attainable internally for the right price.
heading into Thursday’s NBA Draft, my attempt at projecting this event may truly devolve into a mockery. Print this out and openly laugh at it on Friday morning. The only thing I feel relatively assured about is that the team picking at No. 1 will not be trading down.
