NBA draft stock watch: Rising prospects and early surprises
hich 2021 NBA draft prospects have helped their stock the most since the start of the college basketball season?
The 2020 NBA draft wrapped up just a few weeks ago, but the race for the 2021 lottery is already heating up. Let's check in on some surprises, risers and fallers over the past week of play, including Gonzaga's Jalen Suggs, Duke's Jalen Johnson, Arizona State's Marcus Bagley and Villanova's Jeremiah Robinson-Earl.
In the coming weeks, we'll also check in on the 2021 international class and debut our top 100 draft rankings.
Jalen Johnson | F | Duke | No. 4 overall prospect
Johnson's box score didn't really pop against Michigan State in the Champions Classic (11 points on 11 field goal attempts, 4 rebounds, 1 assist in 22 minutes), but his glimpses of skill and versatility as a playmaker were eye-opening. If he continues to produce, he should emerge as a dark horse candidate for the No. 1 pick.
Duke built a double-digit lead in the first half by running its offense through the 6-foot-9 guard, and he delivered some incredible fireworks. At his best pushing the ball off the defensive glass, Johnson is extremely difficult to contain in the open floor with his strong frame, ability to accelerate powerfully out of hesitation moves and polished footwork. He is still figuring out how to consistently put that to good use -- and he will certainly need to be surrounded with more perimeter shooting to optimize his effectiveness -- but there are only a handful of players on the planet who can make plays with the ball like Johnson can. The lone assist he posted against Michigan State doesn't do justice to the outstanding court vision, creativity and timing he displays as a passer.
In the second half, MSU came back with a much better game plan of shrinking the floor, staying at home on shooters and forcing Johnson to score from the perimeter. That exposed his biggest weakness, as he hit the side of the backboard on one attempt and tried another difficult step-back jumper that wasn't particularly close. He also bricked three of his six free throw attempts.
The 18-year-old Johnson has time to improve that part of his game, and the touch he demonstrates around the basket indicates that there's plenty of room for optimism. Players such as Ben Simmons and Giannis Antetokounmpo have shown that a shaky jumper is not a deal-breaker for players with elite levels of creativity and versatility.
Jalen Suggs | G | Gonzaga | No. 5
Suggs has made light work of stepping into a go-to role for the No. 1 team in college basketball, looking like a polished veteran with maturity that far exceeds his years. He put the NCAA on notice in his debut with an exhilarating 24-point, eight-assist effort in 24 minutes in a win over powerhouse Kansas, then had another strong outing by showing impressive patience and feel against Auburn.
Suggs has great size for a point guard at 6-foot-4 to go along with a strong frame and outstanding physical ability, boasting a powerful first step and the explosiveness to play above the rim regularly. An aggressive slasher who attacks the paint relentlessly, Suggs absorbs contact at the rim far better than most 19-year-olds, but he also has been impressive in changing speeds and using advanced moves to create space. His jumper has looked encouraging, especially with his ability to make pull-up 3s from deep.
Suggs' court vision and unselfishness have been the biggest revelations of his freshman campaign thus far. He makes quick, pinpoint passes without hesitation, manipulating defenses with his handle and timing. And his defense has been just as good as advertised. He has excellent instincts getting in passing lanes and demonstrates terrific awareness rotating to make plays from the weak side. Big enough to defend some wings, he gets over screens, puts his body on the line and plays with aggressiveness and physicality.
Two games against West Virginia and Baylor this week should tell us a lot more about Suggs' ability to maintain this scorching start against some of the best defenses in college basketball. He already has moved into the top five of our 2021 draft rankings.
Marcus Bagley | F | Arizona State | No. 15
The No. 35 player in his class, according to the RSCI, Bagley has already exceeded early expectations and is making a strong case as a one-and-done first-rounder through three games.
At 6-foot-8 and 215 pounds with a plus wingspan, Bagley has strong physical tools to go along with dynamic perimeter-shooting ability. Capable of shooting off movement, Bagley has outstanding footwork, mechanics and touch, which is intriguing when combined with his size, length, explosiveness and defensive versatility.
Bagley is a switchable combo forward with quickness and a strong activity level. He has looked adept at defending smaller players on the perimeter and putting a body on bigger players in the post. Not much of a ball handler or shot-creator, Bagley has shot just 2-for-9 inside the arc, but he has found ways to get to the free throw line. Players in his mold (think Robert Covington) are valuable and difficult to find in today's NBA, which will make him someone NBA scouts will want to monitor closely.
Corey Kispert | F | Gonzaga | No. 23
Likely the top prospect to bow out of the 2020 NBA draft, Kispert dropped a combined 48 points in 67 minutes on Kansas and Auburn with a scorching 80% true shooting percentage, while displaying far more aggressiveness and versatility.
Kispert was already known as one of the best shooters in the college game after making 44% of his 3-pointers and 81% of his free throws last season. Now, he has dramatically ramped up his volume. He has a full green light this season and is taking much deeper 3s, including coming off screens or pulling up off the dribble, confirming his status as a plug-and-play threat in the NBA.
What's been more impressive is the way he has been scoring inside the arc (10-for-11 on 2s), attacking the rim off closeouts, stringing out his dribble in pick-and-rolls and showing some ability to play at different speeds. On defense, he has shown the ability to guard both smaller and bigger players thanks to his excellent size, solid frame, competitiveness and feel.
With play like this, Kispert is positioning himself well to be a first-round pick.
Charles Bassey | C | Western Kentucky | No. 25
Playing just nine games as a sophomore before a fractured tibia ended his campaign, Bassey is off to an outstanding start after productive games against Northern Iowa, Memphis, West Virginia and Louisville. The 6-foot-10, long-armed center has done an outstanding job of getting himself into peak condition, looking more mobile and explosive. Previous injuries apparently didn't allow us to see his full abilities.
Bassey has been a wrecking ball on both ends of the floor, averaging 23 points, 17 rebounds and 6 blocks per 40 minutes. His huge frame, big standing reach and soft hands make him an outstanding target for the ball inside the paint, and he shows plenty of skill finishing with touch. Bassey's improved skill level makes him a more modern big man candidate, and his 78% free throw shooting in college bodes well for his ability to stretch out his range.
The biggest NBA questions come on the defensive end. His motor fluctuates from game to game, and his ability to cover ground in small spaces is a concern. But he is demonstrating outstanding shot-blocking instincts, and he has had several encouraging possessions switching out onto smaller players and sliding his feet in pick-and-rolls. His dominance on the glass has been notable, as well.
Playing in middling Conference USA, Bassey won't have too many more opportunities to showcase himself against elite frontcourt competition, which might prove for a somewhat challenging evaluation. Still, he looks like a strong first-round candidate if he keeps this up.
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl | F | Villanova | No. 30
Considered a potential 2020 second-round pick before electing to return for his sophomore season, Robinson-Earl has stepped into a significantly larger role for Villanova and could be en route to an All-American-caliber campaign that should put him firmly in the first-round mix. Robinson-Earl was particularly impressive in the championship game of the Empire Classic over the weekend, posting 28 points and eight rebounds in a win over Arizona State. He knocked down a barrage of jumpers, which NBA scouts definitely want to see more of.
With Robinson-Earl standing 6-foot-9 on an even wingspan and a somewhat unassuming frame, his ability to step outside and convert 3s is paramount. The results were somewhat mixed in his other two other contests, with deep, contested midrange jumpers off isolations making up the bulk of his attack from the perimeter.
Polish, physicality and a knack for being in the right spots will always be significant parts of Robinson-Earl's appeal. Plus, he offers a lot of versatility with his ability to create shots from the post and the elbow, move off the ball and crash the glass aggressively. He showed some nice flashes on the defensive end, as well, switching onto smaller players on pick-and-rolls, containing opponents with a deep stance and finishing plays with strong contests.
Aaron Henry | G | Michigan State | No. 35
Often criticized for passivity in his first two seasons at Michigan State, Henry came out aggressive against Duke, taking 21 field goal attempts while dishing out five assists and giving up four turnovers. While his decision-making and overall efficiency (he scored just 14 points) left something to be desire, it was good to see Henry step out of his comfort zone and show more versatility in creating offense.
As the game moved on, Henry's defensive aggressiveness began to match his offense. He has added significant bulk to his frame, and he was able to play through contact much better on both ends of the floor, walling off opposing guards on drives, switching onto big men and making timely rotations off the ball.
The next step in Henry's evolution as an NBA prospect will need to come with his jumper, especially off the dribble. He still shoots the ball with long, stiff mechanics that have made him inconsistent for some time. But big wings with scoring upside who can defend multiple positions and pass aren't that easy to find. A strong season in the Big Ten could make him a first-round candidate.
Rocket Watts | G | Michigan State | Not ranked
Watts was the best player on the floor in the opening game of the Champions Classic. His ability to get anywhere he wanted was the difference in Michigan State's win over Duke.
Coming off an inefficient, inconsistent freshman season and starting his sophomore campaign on a similar note with two modest performances, Watts exploded on the big stage to solidify his status as one of the best scorers in the college game and a serious NBA prospect.
Not blessed with great size, strength or length, it was Watts' ballhandling, quickness and ability to play at different speeds that allowed him to gash Duke's perimeter defense. Michigan State's decision to spread the floor with shooting and give Watts a clear lane to the rim allowed him to demonstrate his elite touch as a finisher, as he dropped in difficult floaters from deep vantage points. More than just a slasher, Watts also had some nice moments as a passer and a defender.
Watts still has some questions to answer about his perimeter shooting (career 27% from 3 in college) as well as his decision-making, as he is prone to wild moments where he doesn't take care of the ball. But players who can score at this elite level are certainly worth monitoring.