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As bad as the pistons and cade have been. He’s still probably an all star level player. Just not as a first option .
2025 NBA Draft Thread
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by addict4sneakers,
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As G League Ignite struggles, what can we expect moving forward?
The NBA's annual G League Winter Showcase took place last week in Orlando, Florida, with a majority of the league's executives and scouts descending to evaluate players hoping to work their way onto NBA rosters. Also on the docket were a pair of G League Ignite games -- arguably the biggest platform of the season for the team and its eight draft prospects -- and a series of games involving the NBA academies.
ESPN NBA draft experts Jonathan Givony and Jeremy Woo attended and provide their major takeaways from the event, including on the state of the Ignite program and how the team's top draft prospects are developing.
What can we expect moving forward G League Ignite?
Entering the Showcase, it looked like the Ignite had started to figure some things out, having won four of their past six games after losing eight straight to begin the season. But based on what we saw in Orlando, that seems to be anything but the case. Ignite lost both games at the Showcase and didn't muster a ton of fight in either one, falling 100-88 to the short-handed Cleveland Charge and 113-90 against a Grand Rapids Gold team loaded with former college standouts. And while growing pains are certainly nothing new for the Ignite -- it usually takes time for teenage prospects to get comfortable at the G League level -- what scouts saw at the Showcase proved to be a concerning look for Ignite on the whole, now 4-12 on the season with a tough four-game road trip against Rio Grande Valley and Sioux Falls up next.
There was simply not a lot of team basketball being played, with copious turnovers, frequent defensive lapses, poor shot selection, and a lack of positive ball movement. In the face of adversity, there was little leadership on the floor from either the prospects or veterans. And while these are not unique struggles for a young team, the overall vibes were somewhat alarming. The Ignite primarily serve as a stage for player development -- it's a longer-view program designed to put players in a great evaluation setting, not to win every game -- but the team's collective struggles raised the question from onlookers as to how much of either we can expect moving forward.
By choosing to roster eight prospects during a down season for draft-eligible talent, Ignite has created a situation where there are too many mouths to feed. As a result, there are not enough minutes available for veterans to balance lineups around the younger players, who have to receive minutes to get better. The fact that this has turned out to be a down year for draft-eligible talent is a macro-level problem that's out of the Ignite's control, but the program could do a better job putting the players it does have in positions to succeed, and thus enhance their draft stock.
Although team success helps earn players the benefit of the doubt from scouts, one of the perpetual challenges surrounding a team such as the Ignite, which doesn't disguise its role as an NBA feeder program, is always going to be convincing young, impressionable players to buy into winning basketball and to put their personal aspirations and agendas to the side.
It will be interesting to see if the results of this season's experiment eventually lead to changes in the Ignite's roster construction. The change to the NBA's collective bargaining agreement allowing young players to spend multiple years at the pro level before declaring for the draft (versus becoming auto-eligible immediately) enabled Ignite to carry eight prospects for the first time, with less pressure for every player to make an immediate jump into the draft. Based on what we're seeing, it's hard to argue that rostering that many prospects will ever make much sense again, whether the pieces fit or not. There has also been seemingly little benefit to Ignite handing out two-year developmental contracts, leading them to commit minutes ahead of time to project players such as London Johnson (ranked No. 99 in our Top 100) and Dink Pate (2025 draft eligible and essentially redshirting this season) rather than allow for maximum flexibility in putting together a roster year to year.
There's a reason no college team carries seven or eight teenagers and puts them all in the rotation at once: It's almost impossible to win that way at that level. It's hard to reasonably expect Ignite and its players to consistently succeed at a more difficult, fast-paced and physical level of basketball in the G League as constituted. High school rankings mean little when teenage players are thrown into the fire against older players with a wealth of experience and asked to perform. It will be on the Ignite and their staff to figure out the right balance of lineups, minutes and roles for its prospects moving forward, with a schedule ahead that look particularly daunting at the moment. -- Jeremy Woo
Draft outlook for the Ignite's prospects after the Showcase
Matas Buzelis
Coming off ankle injuries that sidelined him for three months, Buzelis was playing some of his best basketball coming into the Showcase, being a catalyst in his team's revival in winning four of its previous six games. He was unable to build on that momentum in Orlando, shooting 8-for-22 from the field (1-for-3 from 3) in front of NBA decision-makers, struggling to make shots from the perimeter, being unable to generate high-percentage opportunities for himself or others, and showing his distinct lack of strength and physicality on both ends of the floor.
The 6-foot-10, 19-year-old wing has dropped plenty of flashes of intrigue throughout the season with his positional size, ability to push off the glass, dynamic shot-making, feel for the game as a passer and defensive playmaking instincts. Unfortunately, those moments weren't on display, leaving Buzelis with plenty of work ahead of him the next few months to show he's worthy of consideration as a top-five prospect like when he entered the season. Buzelis has added some mass to his frame and made subtle strides defensively, but scouts want to see a lot more from him, especially as a shooter (22% from 3 through eight games) and pick-and-roll ball handler, as he was struggling with his confidence in Orlando. -- Givony
Ron Holland
Holland didn't have the Showcase that performance scouts wanted to see, shooting just 7-for-21 from the field with some discouraging moments on both ends of the floor. Entering the season as the projected No. 1 pick, most NBA executives currently describe that scenario as an extremely remote possibility with the way Holland has played to this point, with the prevailing sentiment that even being a lock top-10 pick is no sure thing if he can't find another gear with his play over the next three months.
The question scouts are pondering mostly revolves around Holland's offensive identity at the NBA level. He's not blessed with great positional size or explosiveness. Holland can't be described as a shooter, creator, or connector currently, with criticism abound regarding his shot selection, decision-making and frequent defensive lapses. He plays a wild style that heavily revolves around his ability to get out in the open court and finish downhill drives aggressively, looking sped up when his first move is cut off and he's forced to improvise and make decisions on the fly.
With that said, it's important to remember that Holland is still only 18 years old and playing an outsized role on an overmatched team of teenagers facing stiff competition on a nightly basis. He shows some flashes of ability with his handle, and passing that could be harnessed into more consistent weapons down the line, and seeks out contact in the lane and finishes with power and creativity that bodes well as his career moves on. Holland's extreme struggles from beyond the arc (24% from 3 this season) are discouraging in the shooting-crazed NBA, but his improvement from the free throw line (75% across all competitions this season) provides at least a glimmer of hope that hopefully his shooting woes can improve with a better shot-diet.
Although inconsistent and mistake-prone defensively, Holland flies around and brings a level of energy and toughness that you rarely see from a player his age, while posting 6.7 rebounds, 2.1 steals and 1.1 blocks per game. The big test will be seeing how much Holland evolves this season, as you'd expect someone his age to gain experience, as there are still more than 30 games left. The early results haven't been promising despite his solid raw box score numbers (18.5 points per game), but in a wide-open draft, there's still much to be decided between now and June. -- Givony
Tyler Smith
Smith was the lone Ignite prospect who helped their standing at the Showcase, scoring 30 points on 22 shots in 40 minutes, and adding 12 rebounds and four steals. This has been a consistent theme throughout the year, as Smith has done a great job of coming off the bench and providing a steady scoring punch from the backup center position.
Smith plays a compact role for Ignite, mostly being asked to pick and pop or step into spot-up 3s, post-up switches, and dive hard to the rim as a cutter or roller. His ballhandling, passing, defensive awareness and all-around feel for the game still leave much to be desired, but he's made it easy for NBA teams to visualize his role at the next level with his excellent positional size (6-10), length and ability to put the ball in the basket from virtually anywhere on the floor.
It will be interesting to see if Smith continues to log minutes at center when the injured Eric Mika, a more traditional big man who started nearly every game for Ignite last season, returns in the coming weeks. Smith has found a great deal of success at the 5 but likely projects as more of a combo forward for the NBA, where some of his flaws might be more readily apparent. Regardless, he's helped his cause considerably this season, giving himself a case to hear his name as high as the late lottery on draft night. -- Givony
Izan Almansa
Almansa is being described by scouts as a difficult evaluation in the Ignite context, as he sports by far the lowest usage rate (13.7%) of any of the seven prospects on the team. He struggled to impact the game consistently on either end of the floor at the Showcase, at times looking tentative and appearing to lack confidence.
Billed as one of the premier pick-and-roll big men in this class, the Ignite's guards have consistently looked Almansa off as he rolls to the rim off ball screens, as almost no one on this roster can consistently read and manipulate defenses to make a pocket pass or throw a well-timed lob. His best pick and roll partner, Jeremy Pargo, has mostly been out of the rotation for the better part of the past month, as Ignite has favored combo guard Norris Cole, who has struggled while vying for his own NBA call-up.
Almansa hasn't helped his cause by missing too many good looks around the rim this season due to a lack of explosiveness, while not being physical or assertive enough to take advantage of opportunities. The fact that he's just 2-for-9 from 3 this season and 11-for-29 (38%) from the free throw line hasn't helped matters either.
Defensively is where NBA teams want to see growth from Almansa over the next three months. He has terrific timing and instincts on this end of the floor, with a strong intensity level and a nose for being around the ball. However, he was inconsistent in this area at the Showcase, struggling to protect the rim at a high level with his lack of length and high-end explosiveness, getting scored on in the post due to his lack of size and bulk, and not always having the quickness to contain opponents one-on-one or get back in plays when he takes bad angles in pick and roll.
Overall, the Ignite experience hasn't been great for Almansa's draft stock to this point. NBA executives who evaluated him in FIBA settings say they are struggling to convince their cohorts of his exact fit on their team's roster without developing a consistent jump shot. One of the youngest players in this draft, not turning 19 until July, Almansa will need to ramp up his play to improve his chances of being a top-20 pick. -- Givony
NBA Academy Africa shows its potential
One of the highlights of the G League Showcase since 2018 has been the addition of the three NBA Academies -- Africa (based in Senegal), Latin America (Mexico) and the Global Academy (Australia) playing morning games before G League teams. The 2019 G League Showcase in Las Vegas allowed Bennedict Mathurin, Josh Giddey, Dyson Daniels, Olivier-Maxence Prosper and Tyrese Proctor to be seen by NBA teams for the first time, helping to springboard three of them into being top-10 picks in the following years.
While the NBA Academy Africa always had the most gifted players at these Showcases in terms of size, length, explosiveness and defensive intensity, their group typically lagged far behind with ballhandling, passing, shooting and feel for the game. That appears to be changing in a major way from what we saw in several games and a well-coached practice in Orlando, where it looks like the future of basketball will increasingly be starting to churn out skillful talent at every position hailing from Africa.
The headliner of the event was 7-2 South Sudanese big man Khaman Maluach, a potential top-five pick in the 2025 NBA draft, who recently elected to graduate high school a year early to potentially enroll in college this upcoming summer. Maluach was playing at this event for the third year in a row, despite just turning 17 in September, giving NBA executives a great opportunity to evaluate his development over a considerable amount of time, a huge luxury in the scouting world.
Known for his ability to switch onto guards with outstanding mobility and protect the rim at a high level with his 7-6 wingspan, Maluach wowed NBA observers by making six 3s in two wins at the Showcase, as well as pushing the ball off the defensive glass and hammering home dunks with impressive quickness in getting off his feet. Only playing basketball seriously since 2019, Maluach still has room to grow with his body, passing, decision-making and ability to play through contact on both ends of the floor, but looked every bit the part of a top prospect in the different settings we observed him. College appears to be an increasingly strong option, with Duke and Kansas said to be the two programs vying most aggressively at the moment.
Another player drawing considerable interest from the hundreds of NBA executives in attendance was 6-11 Cameroonian Ulrich Chomche, also a Showcase veteran in his third appearance at this event. Chomche has lottery-pick tools physically with outstanding mobility, quickness off his feet and rim-running prowess, as well as a 7-4 wingspan and huge hands. He is an absolute game-changer defensively with the way he covers ground, gets off the ground and alters shots with tremendous instincts, showing no issues switching onto smaller players on the perimeter.
Chomche continues to make progress with his frame, passing and shooting every time we've seen him dating back to February 2020, and turns 18 next week despite having already graduated high school. His late December birthday makes him NBA draft-eligible in 2024, something he's reportedly keen to explore this upcoming spring, possibly after attending April's Nike Hoop Summit in Portland. Still learning how to play with a consistent motor, make good decisions and score efficiently, Chomche has considerable upside to grow into and could very well be someone an NBA team elects to draft and develop thanks to his outlier tools and budding two-way versatility. -- Givony
The NBA's annual G League Winter Showcase took place last week in Orlando, Florida, with a majority of the league's executives and scouts descending to evaluate players hoping to work their way onto NBA rosters. Also on the docket were a pair of G League Ignite games -- arguably the biggest platform of the season for the team and its eight draft prospects -- and a series of games involving the NBA academies.
ESPN NBA draft experts Jonathan Givony and Jeremy Woo attended and provide their major takeaways from the event, including on the state of the Ignite program and how the team's top draft prospects are developing.
What can we expect moving forward G League Ignite?
Entering the Showcase, it looked like the Ignite had started to figure some things out, having won four of their past six games after losing eight straight to begin the season. But based on what we saw in Orlando, that seems to be anything but the case. Ignite lost both games at the Showcase and didn't muster a ton of fight in either one, falling 100-88 to the short-handed Cleveland Charge and 113-90 against a Grand Rapids Gold team loaded with former college standouts. And while growing pains are certainly nothing new for the Ignite -- it usually takes time for teenage prospects to get comfortable at the G League level -- what scouts saw at the Showcase proved to be a concerning look for Ignite on the whole, now 4-12 on the season with a tough four-game road trip against Rio Grande Valley and Sioux Falls up next.
There was simply not a lot of team basketball being played, with copious turnovers, frequent defensive lapses, poor shot selection, and a lack of positive ball movement. In the face of adversity, there was little leadership on the floor from either the prospects or veterans. And while these are not unique struggles for a young team, the overall vibes were somewhat alarming. The Ignite primarily serve as a stage for player development -- it's a longer-view program designed to put players in a great evaluation setting, not to win every game -- but the team's collective struggles raised the question from onlookers as to how much of either we can expect moving forward.
By choosing to roster eight prospects during a down season for draft-eligible talent, Ignite has created a situation where there are too many mouths to feed. As a result, there are not enough minutes available for veterans to balance lineups around the younger players, who have to receive minutes to get better. The fact that this has turned out to be a down year for draft-eligible talent is a macro-level problem that's out of the Ignite's control, but the program could do a better job putting the players it does have in positions to succeed, and thus enhance their draft stock.
Although team success helps earn players the benefit of the doubt from scouts, one of the perpetual challenges surrounding a team such as the Ignite, which doesn't disguise its role as an NBA feeder program, is always going to be convincing young, impressionable players to buy into winning basketball and to put their personal aspirations and agendas to the side.
It will be interesting to see if the results of this season's experiment eventually lead to changes in the Ignite's roster construction. The change to the NBA's collective bargaining agreement allowing young players to spend multiple years at the pro level before declaring for the draft (versus becoming auto-eligible immediately) enabled Ignite to carry eight prospects for the first time, with less pressure for every player to make an immediate jump into the draft. Based on what we're seeing, it's hard to argue that rostering that many prospects will ever make much sense again, whether the pieces fit or not. There has also been seemingly little benefit to Ignite handing out two-year developmental contracts, leading them to commit minutes ahead of time to project players such as London Johnson (ranked No. 99 in our Top 100) and Dink Pate (2025 draft eligible and essentially redshirting this season) rather than allow for maximum flexibility in putting together a roster year to year.
There's a reason no college team carries seven or eight teenagers and puts them all in the rotation at once: It's almost impossible to win that way at that level. It's hard to reasonably expect Ignite and its players to consistently succeed at a more difficult, fast-paced and physical level of basketball in the G League as constituted. High school rankings mean little when teenage players are thrown into the fire against older players with a wealth of experience and asked to perform. It will be on the Ignite and their staff to figure out the right balance of lineups, minutes and roles for its prospects moving forward, with a schedule ahead that look particularly daunting at the moment. -- Jeremy Woo
Draft outlook for the Ignite's prospects after the Showcase
Matas Buzelis
Coming off ankle injuries that sidelined him for three months, Buzelis was playing some of his best basketball coming into the Showcase, being a catalyst in his team's revival in winning four of its previous six games. He was unable to build on that momentum in Orlando, shooting 8-for-22 from the field (1-for-3 from 3) in front of NBA decision-makers, struggling to make shots from the perimeter, being unable to generate high-percentage opportunities for himself or others, and showing his distinct lack of strength and physicality on both ends of the floor.
The 6-foot-10, 19-year-old wing has dropped plenty of flashes of intrigue throughout the season with his positional size, ability to push off the glass, dynamic shot-making, feel for the game as a passer and defensive playmaking instincts. Unfortunately, those moments weren't on display, leaving Buzelis with plenty of work ahead of him the next few months to show he's worthy of consideration as a top-five prospect like when he entered the season. Buzelis has added some mass to his frame and made subtle strides defensively, but scouts want to see a lot more from him, especially as a shooter (22% from 3 through eight games) and pick-and-roll ball handler, as he was struggling with his confidence in Orlando. -- Givony
Ron Holland
Holland didn't have the Showcase that performance scouts wanted to see, shooting just 7-for-21 from the field with some discouraging moments on both ends of the floor. Entering the season as the projected No. 1 pick, most NBA executives currently describe that scenario as an extremely remote possibility with the way Holland has played to this point, with the prevailing sentiment that even being a lock top-10 pick is no sure thing if he can't find another gear with his play over the next three months.
The question scouts are pondering mostly revolves around Holland's offensive identity at the NBA level. He's not blessed with great positional size or explosiveness. Holland can't be described as a shooter, creator, or connector currently, with criticism abound regarding his shot selection, decision-making and frequent defensive lapses. He plays a wild style that heavily revolves around his ability to get out in the open court and finish downhill drives aggressively, looking sped up when his first move is cut off and he's forced to improvise and make decisions on the fly.
With that said, it's important to remember that Holland is still only 18 years old and playing an outsized role on an overmatched team of teenagers facing stiff competition on a nightly basis. He shows some flashes of ability with his handle, and passing that could be harnessed into more consistent weapons down the line, and seeks out contact in the lane and finishes with power and creativity that bodes well as his career moves on. Holland's extreme struggles from beyond the arc (24% from 3 this season) are discouraging in the shooting-crazed NBA, but his improvement from the free throw line (75% across all competitions this season) provides at least a glimmer of hope that hopefully his shooting woes can improve with a better shot-diet.
Although inconsistent and mistake-prone defensively, Holland flies around and brings a level of energy and toughness that you rarely see from a player his age, while posting 6.7 rebounds, 2.1 steals and 1.1 blocks per game. The big test will be seeing how much Holland evolves this season, as you'd expect someone his age to gain experience, as there are still more than 30 games left. The early results haven't been promising despite his solid raw box score numbers (18.5 points per game), but in a wide-open draft, there's still much to be decided between now and June. -- Givony
Tyler Smith
Smith was the lone Ignite prospect who helped their standing at the Showcase, scoring 30 points on 22 shots in 40 minutes, and adding 12 rebounds and four steals. This has been a consistent theme throughout the year, as Smith has done a great job of coming off the bench and providing a steady scoring punch from the backup center position.
Smith plays a compact role for Ignite, mostly being asked to pick and pop or step into spot-up 3s, post-up switches, and dive hard to the rim as a cutter or roller. His ballhandling, passing, defensive awareness and all-around feel for the game still leave much to be desired, but he's made it easy for NBA teams to visualize his role at the next level with his excellent positional size (6-10), length and ability to put the ball in the basket from virtually anywhere on the floor.
It will be interesting to see if Smith continues to log minutes at center when the injured Eric Mika, a more traditional big man who started nearly every game for Ignite last season, returns in the coming weeks. Smith has found a great deal of success at the 5 but likely projects as more of a combo forward for the NBA, where some of his flaws might be more readily apparent. Regardless, he's helped his cause considerably this season, giving himself a case to hear his name as high as the late lottery on draft night. -- Givony
Izan Almansa
Almansa is being described by scouts as a difficult evaluation in the Ignite context, as he sports by far the lowest usage rate (13.7%) of any of the seven prospects on the team. He struggled to impact the game consistently on either end of the floor at the Showcase, at times looking tentative and appearing to lack confidence.
Billed as one of the premier pick-and-roll big men in this class, the Ignite's guards have consistently looked Almansa off as he rolls to the rim off ball screens, as almost no one on this roster can consistently read and manipulate defenses to make a pocket pass or throw a well-timed lob. His best pick and roll partner, Jeremy Pargo, has mostly been out of the rotation for the better part of the past month, as Ignite has favored combo guard Norris Cole, who has struggled while vying for his own NBA call-up.
Almansa hasn't helped his cause by missing too many good looks around the rim this season due to a lack of explosiveness, while not being physical or assertive enough to take advantage of opportunities. The fact that he's just 2-for-9 from 3 this season and 11-for-29 (38%) from the free throw line hasn't helped matters either.
Defensively is where NBA teams want to see growth from Almansa over the next three months. He has terrific timing and instincts on this end of the floor, with a strong intensity level and a nose for being around the ball. However, he was inconsistent in this area at the Showcase, struggling to protect the rim at a high level with his lack of length and high-end explosiveness, getting scored on in the post due to his lack of size and bulk, and not always having the quickness to contain opponents one-on-one or get back in plays when he takes bad angles in pick and roll.
Overall, the Ignite experience hasn't been great for Almansa's draft stock to this point. NBA executives who evaluated him in FIBA settings say they are struggling to convince their cohorts of his exact fit on their team's roster without developing a consistent jump shot. One of the youngest players in this draft, not turning 19 until July, Almansa will need to ramp up his play to improve his chances of being a top-20 pick. -- Givony
NBA Academy Africa shows its potential
One of the highlights of the G League Showcase since 2018 has been the addition of the three NBA Academies -- Africa (based in Senegal), Latin America (Mexico) and the Global Academy (Australia) playing morning games before G League teams. The 2019 G League Showcase in Las Vegas allowed Bennedict Mathurin, Josh Giddey, Dyson Daniels, Olivier-Maxence Prosper and Tyrese Proctor to be seen by NBA teams for the first time, helping to springboard three of them into being top-10 picks in the following years.
While the NBA Academy Africa always had the most gifted players at these Showcases in terms of size, length, explosiveness and defensive intensity, their group typically lagged far behind with ballhandling, passing, shooting and feel for the game. That appears to be changing in a major way from what we saw in several games and a well-coached practice in Orlando, where it looks like the future of basketball will increasingly be starting to churn out skillful talent at every position hailing from Africa.
The headliner of the event was 7-2 South Sudanese big man Khaman Maluach, a potential top-five pick in the 2025 NBA draft, who recently elected to graduate high school a year early to potentially enroll in college this upcoming summer. Maluach was playing at this event for the third year in a row, despite just turning 17 in September, giving NBA executives a great opportunity to evaluate his development over a considerable amount of time, a huge luxury in the scouting world.
Known for his ability to switch onto guards with outstanding mobility and protect the rim at a high level with his 7-6 wingspan, Maluach wowed NBA observers by making six 3s in two wins at the Showcase, as well as pushing the ball off the defensive glass and hammering home dunks with impressive quickness in getting off his feet. Only playing basketball seriously since 2019, Maluach still has room to grow with his body, passing, decision-making and ability to play through contact on both ends of the floor, but looked every bit the part of a top prospect in the different settings we observed him. College appears to be an increasingly strong option, with Duke and Kansas said to be the two programs vying most aggressively at the moment.
Another player drawing considerable interest from the hundreds of NBA executives in attendance was 6-11 Cameroonian Ulrich Chomche, also a Showcase veteran in his third appearance at this event. Chomche has lottery-pick tools physically with outstanding mobility, quickness off his feet and rim-running prowess, as well as a 7-4 wingspan and huge hands. He is an absolute game-changer defensively with the way he covers ground, gets off the ground and alters shots with tremendous instincts, showing no issues switching onto smaller players on the perimeter.
Chomche continues to make progress with his frame, passing and shooting every time we've seen him dating back to February 2020, and turns 18 next week despite having already graduated high school. His late December birthday makes him NBA draft-eligible in 2024, something he's reportedly keen to explore this upcoming spring, possibly after attending April's Nike Hoop Summit in Portland. Still learning how to play with a consistent motor, make good decisions and score efficiently, Chomche has considerable upside to grow into and could very well be someone an NBA team elects to draft and develop thanks to his outlier tools and budding two-way versatility. -- Givony
- Sep 18, 2003
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Prospects of the Week: The Ignite Quartet
(Note: This section won’t necessarily profile the best prospect of the week. Just the one I’ve been watching.)
The biggest reason scouts came to the Showcase was to see G League Ignite play twice, with four players from the squad regarded as potential first-rounders and at least three others with long-term potential to play in the league.
The Ignite players showed flashes but were mostly overmatched in two blowout losses, dropping the team to 4-12 on the season. The good news is that the main reason the team has struggled is that the veterans haven’t helped much, especially with projected starting center Eric Mika injured before playing a game. The four main draft prospects (Ron Holland, Matas Buzelis, Izan Almansa and Tyler Smith) have arguably been the team’s four best players.
Nonetheless, it’s been rough sledding at times. Holland has been mentioned as a potential top pick and has a better G League stat line than other recent lottery picks who came through Ignite, but his weaknesses were on full display in Orlando. He is very reliant on his right hand to get anywhere, forces the ball into traffic for tough shots and has been hugely turnover-prone. That last part, at least, was much better at the Showcase, with 11 assists and only five miscues in the two games, but 7-of-21 shooting across two games won’t help his stock. Holland also had some wow plays on defense, where he moves his feet, anticipates and competes, and still projects as a potential impact player at that end.
Buzelis is the type of player who should fit snugly in the modern NBA as a skilled 6-foot-10 forward who can get off the floor; despite his size, he’s comfortable playing on the perimeter at both ends. His best moments come with quick leaps around the rim, either finishing dunks or blocking shots as a secondary rim protector. However he couldn’t get his 3-ball going this past week (1 of 9, mostly on clean catch-and-shoots) and has had trouble gaining separation off the dribble all season. Scouts want to see more impact at both ends of the floor.
While those two struggled mainly in the scoring categories, for Almansa, it was the other stuff. The 6-10 big man scored 10 points on seven shots in both games but struggled to protect the rim or rebound in traffic. He has shown advanced feel at times as a passer and off-ball mover, but as an undersized five without a 3-point shot, he has to nail the other stuff to thread the needle as a starting-caliber NBA player. Right now, he’s at 55 percent on 2s, which just isn’t that impressive, especially since he’s a horrid foul shooter (11 of 29 on the season).
Finally, there is Smith, who came in with the least hype but statistically has been the best of the bunch. He fits an unusual prototype as a stretch big who isn’t a rim protector, and that may limit the thirst for using a high draft pick on him. On the other hand, he’s 6-10, and the lefty has made his shot a real weapon, repeatedly facing up against size mismatches and launching without a dribble. (Here’s my interview with him in September, when he talked about Chris Bosh and other comps for his playing style.) Smith scored 30 points in 42 minutes in the two weekend games, and he may have enough mobility to survive as a four at the next level. His pick-and-pop game, at least, offers a clear NBA skill that should make him rotation-viable.
Ignite still has three months of basketball left, and scouts will be checking in on this quartet all season. Remember, you don’t get extra credit for having the right answers entering January; the situation at the top of the draft board is still very fluid. Also, everyone has seen these guys before, and I’m not sure anything happened in Orlando that radically altered scouts’ priors. As a result, the biggest takeaway from the week might have been that there wasn’t a big takeaway.
Finally, we would be remiss in not mentioning the other draft-eligible prospect here: Mexico City Capitanes forward Malique Lewis. A 19-year-old from Trinidad and Tobago who was awarded to the Capitanes in a special international draft (the unquestioned highlight of which was the Cleveland Charge drafting a guy from Iceland named Thor), Lewis played in Spain the last two seasons, serving as a lightly used reserve for a miserable Fuenlabrada team as an 18-year-old in 2022-23.
This season, he’s been getting a consistent 20 minutes a game with Capitanes — and deserves them. The eye test is that he pops with his relatively effortless leaping ability, but his skill level needs refinement to seriously hang at the next level. He’s listed somewhat optimistically at 6-8 but has a legit NBA frame that could allow him to be a full-time four in the NBA. Because he’s young and presumably stashable given his comfort in Spain, and because the wing-athlete-we-can-teach-to-shoot archetype becomes all but irresistible after about the 40th pick in the draft, it wouldn’t be shocking to see him get looks in the second round.
(Note: This section won’t necessarily profile the best prospect of the week. Just the one I’ve been watching.)
The biggest reason scouts came to the Showcase was to see G League Ignite play twice, with four players from the squad regarded as potential first-rounders and at least three others with long-term potential to play in the league.
The Ignite players showed flashes but were mostly overmatched in two blowout losses, dropping the team to 4-12 on the season. The good news is that the main reason the team has struggled is that the veterans haven’t helped much, especially with projected starting center Eric Mika injured before playing a game. The four main draft prospects (Ron Holland, Matas Buzelis, Izan Almansa and Tyler Smith) have arguably been the team’s four best players.
Nonetheless, it’s been rough sledding at times. Holland has been mentioned as a potential top pick and has a better G League stat line than other recent lottery picks who came through Ignite, but his weaknesses were on full display in Orlando. He is very reliant on his right hand to get anywhere, forces the ball into traffic for tough shots and has been hugely turnover-prone. That last part, at least, was much better at the Showcase, with 11 assists and only five miscues in the two games, but 7-of-21 shooting across two games won’t help his stock. Holland also had some wow plays on defense, where he moves his feet, anticipates and competes, and still projects as a potential impact player at that end.
Buzelis is the type of player who should fit snugly in the modern NBA as a skilled 6-foot-10 forward who can get off the floor; despite his size, he’s comfortable playing on the perimeter at both ends. His best moments come with quick leaps around the rim, either finishing dunks or blocking shots as a secondary rim protector. However he couldn’t get his 3-ball going this past week (1 of 9, mostly on clean catch-and-shoots) and has had trouble gaining separation off the dribble all season. Scouts want to see more impact at both ends of the floor.
While those two struggled mainly in the scoring categories, for Almansa, it was the other stuff. The 6-10 big man scored 10 points on seven shots in both games but struggled to protect the rim or rebound in traffic. He has shown advanced feel at times as a passer and off-ball mover, but as an undersized five without a 3-point shot, he has to nail the other stuff to thread the needle as a starting-caliber NBA player. Right now, he’s at 55 percent on 2s, which just isn’t that impressive, especially since he’s a horrid foul shooter (11 of 29 on the season).
Finally, there is Smith, who came in with the least hype but statistically has been the best of the bunch. He fits an unusual prototype as a stretch big who isn’t a rim protector, and that may limit the thirst for using a high draft pick on him. On the other hand, he’s 6-10, and the lefty has made his shot a real weapon, repeatedly facing up against size mismatches and launching without a dribble. (Here’s my interview with him in September, when he talked about Chris Bosh and other comps for his playing style.) Smith scored 30 points in 42 minutes in the two weekend games, and he may have enough mobility to survive as a four at the next level. His pick-and-pop game, at least, offers a clear NBA skill that should make him rotation-viable.
Ignite still has three months of basketball left, and scouts will be checking in on this quartet all season. Remember, you don’t get extra credit for having the right answers entering January; the situation at the top of the draft board is still very fluid. Also, everyone has seen these guys before, and I’m not sure anything happened in Orlando that radically altered scouts’ priors. As a result, the biggest takeaway from the week might have been that there wasn’t a big takeaway.
Finally, we would be remiss in not mentioning the other draft-eligible prospect here: Mexico City Capitanes forward Malique Lewis. A 19-year-old from Trinidad and Tobago who was awarded to the Capitanes in a special international draft (the unquestioned highlight of which was the Cleveland Charge drafting a guy from Iceland named Thor), Lewis played in Spain the last two seasons, serving as a lightly used reserve for a miserable Fuenlabrada team as an 18-year-old in 2022-23.
This season, he’s been getting a consistent 20 minutes a game with Capitanes — and deserves them. The eye test is that he pops with his relatively effortless leaping ability, but his skill level needs refinement to seriously hang at the next level. He’s listed somewhat optimistically at 6-8 but has a legit NBA frame that could allow him to be a full-time four in the NBA. Because he’s young and presumably stashable given his comfort in Spain, and because the wing-athlete-we-can-teach-to-shoot archetype becomes all but irresistible after about the 40th pick in the draft, it wouldn’t be shocking to see him get looks in the second round.
- Sep 5, 2010
- 93,220
- 129,831
2024 NBA draft notebook: Topic returns home, Filipowski's leap and the freshmen who might stay in school
A rare midseason transfer of an elite NBA prospect happened when Nikola Topic, the Serbian point guard ranked No. 6 in the ESPN 2024 draft rankings, was called back this week to the team he grew up with, Red Star, in the EuroLeague. The 18-year-old is a potential top-five pick and spoke with ESPN's Jonathan Givony about his departure from Mega MIS and the similarities between Topic's game and Luka Doncic.
Also in this week's NBA draft notebook, Jeremy Woo and Givony look at why the first-round prospects are older than usual, the freshmen players who could potentially benefit from another year in college and the rise of Duke's Kyle Filipowski.
What does Nikola Topic's departure for Red Star mean for his draft value?
Topic's loan to Mega MIS ended prematurely this week, as he was called back to EuroLeague squad Red Star, the team he grew up with, for the remainder of the season.
"My dream for many years has been to play for Red Star," Topic told ESPN. "I grew up a fan of this club. It will mean everything for me to play in front of 20,000 Red Star fans. I couldn't say no to playing basketball in the EuroLeague.
"It's a huge risk, but I'm ready. I'm confident in myself 100%. My father, my agent Misko Raznatovic and I understand that this move could affect my draft chances if I don't do well. But I'm ready to compete and fight."
Topic replaces Shabazz Napier, who departed for Milan, playing alongside former NBA guards Milos Teodosic and Nemanja Nedovic, as well as Brazilian national team point guard Yago dos Santos.
The decision to return was ultimately Topic's, as he was heavily courted by Red Star in recent weeks, in an attempt to help his hometown club turn around its disappointing (6-10) EuroLeague season, which already saw its previous head coach, Dusko Ivanovic, fired.
Topic will now be coached by Greek coach Giannis Sfairopoulos, who previously helped Washington Wizards forward Deni Avdija become a top-10 NBA draft pick at Maccabi Tel Aviv in 2020.
"We didn't talk about the role I'll play," Topic said. "Whatever he says I'll do. If he says to die on the court, I will die. Whatever coach needs, I'll try my best to do it."
For NBA teams, this will be a fascinating experiment, seeing how an 18-year-old point guard takes on the challenge of going from being the engine of a mid-level Adriatic League squad to competing for opportunities on a deep and experienced team at the highest level of competition on the globe outside the NBA.
No teenager in Adriatic League history has posted the type of numbers (18.6 points, 6.9 assists, 63% true shooting percentage) Topic has this season, doing so on a young but competitive Mega MIS squad that went 6-7 with him at the helm. Topic's combination of size (6-foot-7) and elite ballhandling, passing and finishing ability has helped him emerge as a potential top-five pick in the 2024 NBA draft.
Luka Doncic, for example, averaged 16 points, 4.3 assists in 26 minutes on 61% true shooting in the EuroLeague, a comparison that will be tracked heavily by NBA teams considering some of the stylistic similarities the two share.
"Luka Doncic is a great player," Topic said. "He said that scoring in the EuroLeague is tougher than in the NBA. I don't know if I agree with him, but now I'll be able to see for myself in six months. He is for sure one of the players I look up to. I love the way he's leading the team. But everyone is different. I cannot reach his level. Of course, I like it when people talk about our similarities because he's one of the best players in the world."
Topic goes from Mega MIS, one of the fastest-paced teams in the Adriatic League -- which afforded him unlimited freedom to push in the open court and probe outside of the confines of the offense -- to a Red Star team ranked last in pace, where he'll surely be asked to play a different style.
Topic's 18.5 pick-and-roll possessions used per game ranked No. 1 in the Adriatic League by a wide margin, and he's also top five in the league in isolation and transition possessions. He'll likely be asked to do more with less, playing behind and alongside Teodosic, a legend of European basketball who excels operating in pick and roll.
"Basketball is a game of decisions," Topic said. "It's a mental game. Using angles. The player that makes a faster decision, that person will win. The EuroLeague is a mind game. It's a game of reads."
Two areas where Red Star will likely help Topic's development are defensively and as a perimeter shooter. Playing 34 minutes per game in an outsized role offensively, Topic has had a fair share of lackadaisical moments defensively, especially off the ball, something that will not fly under the defensive-minded Sfairopoulos.
With better talent surrounding him on a team that shoots more 3s per possession than anyone in the EuroLeague, Topic (29% from 3) should get more opportunities to step into catch-and-shoot jumpers than he did at Mega MIS. He'll also be asked to make very different types of reads than in the Adriatic league, where teams aggressively trapped him in ball screens to try to get the ball out of his hands and force others to beat them. He'll likely see more drop and switching coverages in the EuroLeague, more similar to what he'll face in the NBA. He'll enjoy significantly less practice time, also with considerably more travel and games.
With 11 games on the January schedule between the EuroLeague and Adriatic League, Topic will need to hit the ground running for Red Star compared with his previous weekly slate at Mega.
It's not clear what Topic's pre-draft process will look like, as he will likely see his season extend into late May, with the possibility of playing in the Serbian league in June, which might make it challenging for him to conduct private workouts with teams. If Topic excels for Red Star, that likely won't matter that much ultimately, as he could build a strong case for consideration as a top-three pick or even possibly the No. 1 selection depending on how the rest of the class shapes up.
"I'm not thinking of that at all," Topic said on the NBA draft. "That's far away. Five to six months. I'm looking at the next game. I'm thinking about Panathinaikos right now."
Could this be the oldest first round in recent NBA draft history?
When we (and in the case of the 2024 class, much of the NBA scouting community) label a draft as a "bad draft" -- particularly this early in the process -- it's important to understand that label is a commentary on the current state of affairs and the level of confidence it inspires (or doesn't) from scouts. It doesn't mean quality players won't emerge over time: All-Stars CJ McCollum (10th), Giannis Antetokounmpo (15th) and Rudy Gobert (27th) wound up delivering outstanding returns in a similarly panned 2013 draft class.
With that in mind, one notable theme with the 2024 draft has been the emergence of multiple older prospects in the first-round conversation, with NCAA seniors Zach Edey, Kevin McCullar Jr., Oso Ighodaro, Dalton Knecht, Terrence Shannon Jr., Tyler Kolek and Tristan da Silva all ranked between Nos. 15 and 30 entering January. We've seen many freshmen and younger players trend down in the first two months of this season (more on that later), and older college players start to mount strong cases for selection. Using our most recent projected top 30 as a proxy (and adjusting for prospects' age on draft night in June), the 2024 draft class has a chance to produce the oldest first round since 2013.
The average age of our current projected top 30 sits at 20.54 years, above the average age for a first-rounder over the past decade (20.27). The 2009-2013 drafts all skewed older, but they also preceded the one-and-done era, ushered in during the mid-2010s as top programs such as Kentucky and Duke began anchoring their recruiting strategy toward sending elite talent to the NBA. It's worth noting that the average age of our projected lottery prospects is 19.62 -- which, although that number is unlikely to hold, would be the youngest lottery in 15 years. By comparison, the average age of our projected picks in the Nos. 15-30 range is 21.34, the oldest since 2010.
We are six months from the draft, but the lack of certainty surrounding many of the draft's younger prospects (a few of whom are playing well) might drive NBA teams toward prioritizing older, NBA-ready talent.
The 2023 draft class has produced a handful of immediate-impact players: We've seen older rookies, such as Jordan Hawkins (No. 14), Jaime Jaquez Jr. (No. 1
, Marcus Sasser (No. 25), Andre Jackson Jr., (No. 36), Toumani Camara (No. 52) and Trayce-Jackson Davis (No. 57), provide immediate return on investment for their teams. From the 2022 draft, Keegan Murray (No. 4), Jalen Williams (No. 12), Tari Eason (No. 17) and Christian Braun (No. 21) have made impacts as older first-round picks. Other recent success stories include New Orleans Pelicans forward Herb Jones and Memphis Grizzlies guard Desmond Bane, all helping to dispel the stigma that older prospects possess less upside.
There are plenty of misses for every one of these hits. That's the nature of drafting, and it's certainly a lot more logical to see a 22- or 23-year-old senior dominate at the college level. Some cautious optimism is warranted for players such as McCullar and Shannon, who have been on the fringes of the draft conversation for multiple years, but are just now breaking out in earnest in their fifth college seasons. Teams will be parsing all these cases individually.
Recent history, the uncertainty around the 2024 class and the lack of overwhelming first-round talent at least make it more difficult to use a player's age against him on draft night. -- Woo
Who are the freshmen trending toward being multiyear players?
The flip side of a projected older first-round crop is the fact that multiple potential one-and-done prospects entering the year are trending toward being multiyear players -- assuming they aren't ready to settle for going deep in the second round or undrafted.
That's hardly the insult it used to be thanks to NIL deals, as many players will make significantly more money in college as sophomores than they would on two-way contracts as G League projects in the NBA.
Elmarko Jackson (Kansas), Xavier Booker (Michigan State), Aday Mara (UCLA), Jared McCain (Duke), Berke Buyuktuncel (UCLA), Caleb Foster (Duke), Mackenzie Mgbako (Indiana), Kwame Evans Jr. (Oregon) and Omaha Biliew (Iowa State) all entered the season considered possible first-rounders but have trended down or out of our projections after varying slow starts.
Kentucky's trio of D.J. Wagner, Justin Edwards and Aaron Bradshaw aren't far behind that group and will need to step up in SEC play.
Some of these freshmen will rebound and play better throughout the year -- the way Duke's Dereck Lively II did last year, for example, but for others, a big offseason and breakout sophomore campaign -- à la Ryan Dunn (Virginia), Kel'el Ware (Indiana), Trevon Brazile (Arkansas) or Kyle Filipowski (Duke) -- could be the best move for their NBA longevity. -- Givony
Is Duke sophomore Kyle Filipowski making a leap?
In a year in which few top prospects are enjoying consistent on-court success, it's worth noting that Duke's Filipowski has been playing well recently, turning in a dominant offensive showing against Hofstra and perhaps the most complete performance of his college career in a win over Baylor at Madison Square Garden last week. The Filipowski elevator pitch will always center around the diversity of his offensive skill set at his size (7-foot), as he grades out well in the shooting, passing and feel departments. Those contributions are why he's projected in the lottery on our draft board. But if he continues to turn in all-around showings and flash positive things on the defensive end, he has an opportunity to raise the level of intrigue significantly.
In recent weeks, Duke has simplified Filipowski's role in its defensive scheme, cutting back on the amount of aggressive trapping and hedging asked of him guarding screens -- a shift that was quite successful against Baylor. Filipowski moved his feet effectively in drop coverage, used his size effectively and generally limited his mistakes in a performance NBA scouts will hope is the start of a greater trend. He helped Duke to an important win against a talented, physical frontline that included potential first-round pick Yves Missi getting the better of him on a few occasions. By NBA standards, Filipowski is an average athlete hindered by his negative wingspan (he measured at 6-foot-11½ in shoes with a wingspan just under 6-10 at last year's Nike Hoop Summit). He could have trouble as a big man often playing in physical scrambles under the basket. Still, considering the value he might add on offense, proving he can offer some degree of resistance on the glass and in the paint can go a long way.
Filipowski's offensive profile makes him pretty interesting in the context of this draft class, as he can play out of a variety of spots on the floor already, most often working as a trail big and screener who can playmake and space from the middle of the floor. While not a lights-out shooter from 3, he has always been comfortable shooting jumpers and projects to stretch the floor in at least an average capacity for a 7-footer. This would afford him even more utility as someone who can effectively float to the corners and present a threat to defenses. He passes well enough to play out of the short roll and find shooters when defenses send pressure. Filipowski's lack of vertical pop will limit his ability to punish opponents inside the paint at the NBA level, and his negative length makes him more effective facing up and playing in space than trying to score on the interior. The bottom line is there's more to his game than your typical stretch big, and the pathway to becoming an offensive positive seems attainable.
Continuing to show a good level of competitive mettle and willingness to mix things up in the paint should further enhance Filipowski's case early in the draft. That area of his game will likely never be a strength, but the strides he has shown this season were unexpected coming into the year. He won't be a fit for every team, as his lack of foot speed and rebounding struggles in high traffic can inhibit a lineup's capability to play uptempo and get out on the break. But Filipowski might be the most skilled 7-footer in this draft class, which could pay dividends on a team with a clear vision for how to optimize his strengths. -- Woo
Does BYU have a draft sleeper in Jaxson Robinson?
Every NBA team is starved for wing shooting, as we saw in last year's draft when players such as Julian Strawther, Ben Sheppard, Seth Lundy and Hunter Tyson all rocketed up the draft boards throughout June.
Teams are increasingly taking notice of BYU's Robinson, who is currently leading Division I by a wide margin in 3-pointers made per 40 minutes while shooting 43% from beyond the arc. At 6-7 with a 7-1 wingspan, he has ideal dimensions and is also young for his class -- recently turning 21 -- despite being in his fourth season of college basketball.
Robinson is also dynamic with the way he gets into his jumper -- being capable of running off screens, pulling up versus unders and showing deep range from well beyond the NBA 3-point line.
While still having plenty of room to improve with his passing and decision-making, Robinson also shows impressive glimpses of scoring prowess attacking closeouts, in transition and operating out of the pick-and-roll with smooth footwork and pace.
Robinson's defense -- likely the biggest reason he comes off the bench and plays just 22 minutes per game -- will be scrutinized closely in Big 12 play. He lacks intensity and physicality in a major way, often looking a step behind the action instinctually and struggling to add value off the ball.
A 33% 3-point shooter in his first three seasons in college, we'll see if Robinson's scorching shooting is sustainable for BYU -- the No. 4 team in the country, per KenPom. BYU's schedule toughens considerably in January, which should tell us more about Robinson's candidacy as a draft prospect.
Some other wing shooters we'll be monitoring as conference play starts next week: Payton Sandfort (Iowa), Baylor Scheierman (Creighton), Kyshawn George (Miami), Jalen Bridges (Baylor) and Harrison Ingram (North Carolina). -- Givony
A rare midseason transfer of an elite NBA prospect happened when Nikola Topic, the Serbian point guard ranked No. 6 in the ESPN 2024 draft rankings, was called back this week to the team he grew up with, Red Star, in the EuroLeague. The 18-year-old is a potential top-five pick and spoke with ESPN's Jonathan Givony about his departure from Mega MIS and the similarities between Topic's game and Luka Doncic.
Also in this week's NBA draft notebook, Jeremy Woo and Givony look at why the first-round prospects are older than usual, the freshmen players who could potentially benefit from another year in college and the rise of Duke's Kyle Filipowski.
What does Nikola Topic's departure for Red Star mean for his draft value?
Topic's loan to Mega MIS ended prematurely this week, as he was called back to EuroLeague squad Red Star, the team he grew up with, for the remainder of the season.
"My dream for many years has been to play for Red Star," Topic told ESPN. "I grew up a fan of this club. It will mean everything for me to play in front of 20,000 Red Star fans. I couldn't say no to playing basketball in the EuroLeague.
"It's a huge risk, but I'm ready. I'm confident in myself 100%. My father, my agent Misko Raznatovic and I understand that this move could affect my draft chances if I don't do well. But I'm ready to compete and fight."
Topic replaces Shabazz Napier, who departed for Milan, playing alongside former NBA guards Milos Teodosic and Nemanja Nedovic, as well as Brazilian national team point guard Yago dos Santos.
The decision to return was ultimately Topic's, as he was heavily courted by Red Star in recent weeks, in an attempt to help his hometown club turn around its disappointing (6-10) EuroLeague season, which already saw its previous head coach, Dusko Ivanovic, fired.
Topic will now be coached by Greek coach Giannis Sfairopoulos, who previously helped Washington Wizards forward Deni Avdija become a top-10 NBA draft pick at Maccabi Tel Aviv in 2020.
"We didn't talk about the role I'll play," Topic said. "Whatever he says I'll do. If he says to die on the court, I will die. Whatever coach needs, I'll try my best to do it."
For NBA teams, this will be a fascinating experiment, seeing how an 18-year-old point guard takes on the challenge of going from being the engine of a mid-level Adriatic League squad to competing for opportunities on a deep and experienced team at the highest level of competition on the globe outside the NBA.
No teenager in Adriatic League history has posted the type of numbers (18.6 points, 6.9 assists, 63% true shooting percentage) Topic has this season, doing so on a young but competitive Mega MIS squad that went 6-7 with him at the helm. Topic's combination of size (6-foot-7) and elite ballhandling, passing and finishing ability has helped him emerge as a potential top-five pick in the 2024 NBA draft.
Luka Doncic, for example, averaged 16 points, 4.3 assists in 26 minutes on 61% true shooting in the EuroLeague, a comparison that will be tracked heavily by NBA teams considering some of the stylistic similarities the two share.
"Luka Doncic is a great player," Topic said. "He said that scoring in the EuroLeague is tougher than in the NBA. I don't know if I agree with him, but now I'll be able to see for myself in six months. He is for sure one of the players I look up to. I love the way he's leading the team. But everyone is different. I cannot reach his level. Of course, I like it when people talk about our similarities because he's one of the best players in the world."
Topic goes from Mega MIS, one of the fastest-paced teams in the Adriatic League -- which afforded him unlimited freedom to push in the open court and probe outside of the confines of the offense -- to a Red Star team ranked last in pace, where he'll surely be asked to play a different style.
Topic's 18.5 pick-and-roll possessions used per game ranked No. 1 in the Adriatic League by a wide margin, and he's also top five in the league in isolation and transition possessions. He'll likely be asked to do more with less, playing behind and alongside Teodosic, a legend of European basketball who excels operating in pick and roll.
"Basketball is a game of decisions," Topic said. "It's a mental game. Using angles. The player that makes a faster decision, that person will win. The EuroLeague is a mind game. It's a game of reads."
Two areas where Red Star will likely help Topic's development are defensively and as a perimeter shooter. Playing 34 minutes per game in an outsized role offensively, Topic has had a fair share of lackadaisical moments defensively, especially off the ball, something that will not fly under the defensive-minded Sfairopoulos.
With better talent surrounding him on a team that shoots more 3s per possession than anyone in the EuroLeague, Topic (29% from 3) should get more opportunities to step into catch-and-shoot jumpers than he did at Mega MIS. He'll also be asked to make very different types of reads than in the Adriatic league, where teams aggressively trapped him in ball screens to try to get the ball out of his hands and force others to beat them. He'll likely see more drop and switching coverages in the EuroLeague, more similar to what he'll face in the NBA. He'll enjoy significantly less practice time, also with considerably more travel and games.
With 11 games on the January schedule between the EuroLeague and Adriatic League, Topic will need to hit the ground running for Red Star compared with his previous weekly slate at Mega.
It's not clear what Topic's pre-draft process will look like, as he will likely see his season extend into late May, with the possibility of playing in the Serbian league in June, which might make it challenging for him to conduct private workouts with teams. If Topic excels for Red Star, that likely won't matter that much ultimately, as he could build a strong case for consideration as a top-three pick or even possibly the No. 1 selection depending on how the rest of the class shapes up.
"I'm not thinking of that at all," Topic said on the NBA draft. "That's far away. Five to six months. I'm looking at the next game. I'm thinking about Panathinaikos right now."
Could this be the oldest first round in recent NBA draft history?
When we (and in the case of the 2024 class, much of the NBA scouting community) label a draft as a "bad draft" -- particularly this early in the process -- it's important to understand that label is a commentary on the current state of affairs and the level of confidence it inspires (or doesn't) from scouts. It doesn't mean quality players won't emerge over time: All-Stars CJ McCollum (10th), Giannis Antetokounmpo (15th) and Rudy Gobert (27th) wound up delivering outstanding returns in a similarly panned 2013 draft class.
With that in mind, one notable theme with the 2024 draft has been the emergence of multiple older prospects in the first-round conversation, with NCAA seniors Zach Edey, Kevin McCullar Jr., Oso Ighodaro, Dalton Knecht, Terrence Shannon Jr., Tyler Kolek and Tristan da Silva all ranked between Nos. 15 and 30 entering January. We've seen many freshmen and younger players trend down in the first two months of this season (more on that later), and older college players start to mount strong cases for selection. Using our most recent projected top 30 as a proxy (and adjusting for prospects' age on draft night in June), the 2024 draft class has a chance to produce the oldest first round since 2013.
The average age of our current projected top 30 sits at 20.54 years, above the average age for a first-rounder over the past decade (20.27). The 2009-2013 drafts all skewed older, but they also preceded the one-and-done era, ushered in during the mid-2010s as top programs such as Kentucky and Duke began anchoring their recruiting strategy toward sending elite talent to the NBA. It's worth noting that the average age of our projected lottery prospects is 19.62 -- which, although that number is unlikely to hold, would be the youngest lottery in 15 years. By comparison, the average age of our projected picks in the Nos. 15-30 range is 21.34, the oldest since 2010.
We are six months from the draft, but the lack of certainty surrounding many of the draft's younger prospects (a few of whom are playing well) might drive NBA teams toward prioritizing older, NBA-ready talent.
The 2023 draft class has produced a handful of immediate-impact players: We've seen older rookies, such as Jordan Hawkins (No. 14), Jaime Jaquez Jr. (No. 1
, Marcus Sasser (No. 25), Andre Jackson Jr., (No. 36), Toumani Camara (No. 52) and Trayce-Jackson Davis (No. 57), provide immediate return on investment for their teams. From the 2022 draft, Keegan Murray (No. 4), Jalen Williams (No. 12), Tari Eason (No. 17) and Christian Braun (No. 21) have made impacts as older first-round picks. Other recent success stories include New Orleans Pelicans forward Herb Jones and Memphis Grizzlies guard Desmond Bane, all helping to dispel the stigma that older prospects possess less upside.There are plenty of misses for every one of these hits. That's the nature of drafting, and it's certainly a lot more logical to see a 22- or 23-year-old senior dominate at the college level. Some cautious optimism is warranted for players such as McCullar and Shannon, who have been on the fringes of the draft conversation for multiple years, but are just now breaking out in earnest in their fifth college seasons. Teams will be parsing all these cases individually.
Recent history, the uncertainty around the 2024 class and the lack of overwhelming first-round talent at least make it more difficult to use a player's age against him on draft night. -- Woo
Who are the freshmen trending toward being multiyear players?
The flip side of a projected older first-round crop is the fact that multiple potential one-and-done prospects entering the year are trending toward being multiyear players -- assuming they aren't ready to settle for going deep in the second round or undrafted.
That's hardly the insult it used to be thanks to NIL deals, as many players will make significantly more money in college as sophomores than they would on two-way contracts as G League projects in the NBA.
Elmarko Jackson (Kansas), Xavier Booker (Michigan State), Aday Mara (UCLA), Jared McCain (Duke), Berke Buyuktuncel (UCLA), Caleb Foster (Duke), Mackenzie Mgbako (Indiana), Kwame Evans Jr. (Oregon) and Omaha Biliew (Iowa State) all entered the season considered possible first-rounders but have trended down or out of our projections after varying slow starts.
Kentucky's trio of D.J. Wagner, Justin Edwards and Aaron Bradshaw aren't far behind that group and will need to step up in SEC play.
Some of these freshmen will rebound and play better throughout the year -- the way Duke's Dereck Lively II did last year, for example, but for others, a big offseason and breakout sophomore campaign -- à la Ryan Dunn (Virginia), Kel'el Ware (Indiana), Trevon Brazile (Arkansas) or Kyle Filipowski (Duke) -- could be the best move for their NBA longevity. -- Givony
Is Duke sophomore Kyle Filipowski making a leap?
In a year in which few top prospects are enjoying consistent on-court success, it's worth noting that Duke's Filipowski has been playing well recently, turning in a dominant offensive showing against Hofstra and perhaps the most complete performance of his college career in a win over Baylor at Madison Square Garden last week. The Filipowski elevator pitch will always center around the diversity of his offensive skill set at his size (7-foot), as he grades out well in the shooting, passing and feel departments. Those contributions are why he's projected in the lottery on our draft board. But if he continues to turn in all-around showings and flash positive things on the defensive end, he has an opportunity to raise the level of intrigue significantly.
In recent weeks, Duke has simplified Filipowski's role in its defensive scheme, cutting back on the amount of aggressive trapping and hedging asked of him guarding screens -- a shift that was quite successful against Baylor. Filipowski moved his feet effectively in drop coverage, used his size effectively and generally limited his mistakes in a performance NBA scouts will hope is the start of a greater trend. He helped Duke to an important win against a talented, physical frontline that included potential first-round pick Yves Missi getting the better of him on a few occasions. By NBA standards, Filipowski is an average athlete hindered by his negative wingspan (he measured at 6-foot-11½ in shoes with a wingspan just under 6-10 at last year's Nike Hoop Summit). He could have trouble as a big man often playing in physical scrambles under the basket. Still, considering the value he might add on offense, proving he can offer some degree of resistance on the glass and in the paint can go a long way.
Filipowski's offensive profile makes him pretty interesting in the context of this draft class, as he can play out of a variety of spots on the floor already, most often working as a trail big and screener who can playmake and space from the middle of the floor. While not a lights-out shooter from 3, he has always been comfortable shooting jumpers and projects to stretch the floor in at least an average capacity for a 7-footer. This would afford him even more utility as someone who can effectively float to the corners and present a threat to defenses. He passes well enough to play out of the short roll and find shooters when defenses send pressure. Filipowski's lack of vertical pop will limit his ability to punish opponents inside the paint at the NBA level, and his negative length makes him more effective facing up and playing in space than trying to score on the interior. The bottom line is there's more to his game than your typical stretch big, and the pathway to becoming an offensive positive seems attainable.
Continuing to show a good level of competitive mettle and willingness to mix things up in the paint should further enhance Filipowski's case early in the draft. That area of his game will likely never be a strength, but the strides he has shown this season were unexpected coming into the year. He won't be a fit for every team, as his lack of foot speed and rebounding struggles in high traffic can inhibit a lineup's capability to play uptempo and get out on the break. But Filipowski might be the most skilled 7-footer in this draft class, which could pay dividends on a team with a clear vision for how to optimize his strengths. -- Woo
Does BYU have a draft sleeper in Jaxson Robinson?
Every NBA team is starved for wing shooting, as we saw in last year's draft when players such as Julian Strawther, Ben Sheppard, Seth Lundy and Hunter Tyson all rocketed up the draft boards throughout June.
Teams are increasingly taking notice of BYU's Robinson, who is currently leading Division I by a wide margin in 3-pointers made per 40 minutes while shooting 43% from beyond the arc. At 6-7 with a 7-1 wingspan, he has ideal dimensions and is also young for his class -- recently turning 21 -- despite being in his fourth season of college basketball.
Robinson is also dynamic with the way he gets into his jumper -- being capable of running off screens, pulling up versus unders and showing deep range from well beyond the NBA 3-point line.
While still having plenty of room to improve with his passing and decision-making, Robinson also shows impressive glimpses of scoring prowess attacking closeouts, in transition and operating out of the pick-and-roll with smooth footwork and pace.
Robinson's defense -- likely the biggest reason he comes off the bench and plays just 22 minutes per game -- will be scrutinized closely in Big 12 play. He lacks intensity and physicality in a major way, often looking a step behind the action instinctually and struggling to add value off the ball.
A 33% 3-point shooter in his first three seasons in college, we'll see if Robinson's scorching shooting is sustainable for BYU -- the No. 4 team in the country, per KenPom. BYU's schedule toughens considerably in January, which should tell us more about Robinson's candidacy as a draft prospect.
Some other wing shooters we'll be monitoring as conference play starts next week: Payton Sandfort (Iowa), Baylor Scheierman (Creighton), Kyshawn George (Miami), Jalen Bridges (Baylor) and Harrison Ingram (North Carolina). -- Givony
- Nov 5, 2012
- 80,694
- 55,639
Good reporting on topic there
- Apr 5, 2008
- 39,595
- 80,216
- Sep 18, 2003
- 61,927
- 134,320
Bronny had himself a game. About to fly up everyone’s mocks soon
- Sep 5, 2010
- 93,220
- 129,831
- Sep 5, 2010
- 93,220
- 129,831
- Nov 5, 2012
- 80,694
- 55,639
The stats they’re tracking in high school now are nuts/cool
- Sep 5, 2010
- 93,220
- 129,831
2024 NBA draft rankings: Jonathan Givony's top 25 prospects
Another month, another change at the top of our NBA draft board.
Isaiah Collier was previously ranked No. 1, but the USC freshman guard struggled to score in December as the Trojans have lost five of their past six games.
As a result, the steady Alex Sarr is now No. 1 in ESPN's top 25 rankings. The 7-foot-1 big has continued to improve for Perth this season in the NBL after initially moving up draft boards following his two-game outing against the G League Ignite in September.
One prospect making a jump of nearly 20 spots to crack the top 15 is Purdue's Zach Edey, the reigning national player of the year. Edey returned to school for his senior season, and his game has found another gear against some of the top teams in college basketball.
Conference play is here, so these rankings -- complied by NBA draft expert Jonathan Givony, with Jeremy Woo assisting in providing analysis -- will change as we inch closer to June's 2024 NBA draft.
Check back all season as we inform you of the risers and fallers of this unpredictable draft class.
1. Alex Sarr | PF/C | Perth
7-1 | Age: 18.6 | Previously ranked: 2
EDITOR'S PICKS
2024 NBA draft: Making the case for selecting Alex Sarr with the No. 1 pick
13d•Jeremy Woo
Sarr continues to produce for Perth, winners of nine of their past 11 games, stringing together some of his best games of the season in December. He plays a compact, efficient role as a cutter, roller and offensive rebounder, with plenty of freedom to demonstrate his versatile skill set pushing off the defensive glass and facilitating as a passer, making perimeter shots in a variety of ways, and showing his excellent footwork and soft touch as a finisher. Sarr ranks among the NBL's best shot-blockers, but he is highly switchable on the perimeter with his quick feet, long arms and outstanding mobility. Adding strength and becoming a more physical rebounder will be important, but it's difficult to nitpick his play too much considering his productivity versus high-level competition in a situation in which he's not just being spoonfed playing time. Sarr's continued improvement this season, overall consistency and outstanding NBA fit playing a similar role to the likes of Evan Mobley and Chet Holmgren makes him a safe choice currently as the potential No. 1 pick. -- Jonathan Givony
2. Zaccharie Risacher | SF | JL Bourg
6-10 | Age: 18.7 | Previously ranked: 3
Risacher emerged this season as a more decisive and confident player, with the size and skill level to play a highly valuable NBA archetype. He's playing a major role on a good Bourg team that has given him a strong runway to develop his game. In a year with no clear No. 1 pick, Risacher's steady trajectory has enhanced his standing as a prospect. There's quite a bit for teams to work with, and the growth he has shown has put him in the conversation at the very top of the draft.
While unlikely to carry an offense with his scoring, Risacher's ability to facilitate, space the floor and attack space off the dribble gives him a good baseline level of versatility and leaves room to evolve. Defensively, he plays an active, intelligent style and can guard multiple positions. As a tall, switchable perimeter player who can mix and match with a wide range of lineups around him -- and one of the younger players in the draft -- Risacher offers a good mix of floor and upside. -- Jeremy Woo
3. Cody Williams | SG/SF | Colorado
6-8 | Age: 19.1 | Previously ranked: 10
Currently sidelined with a wrist injury, Williams is expected to return in the coming week, a source told ESPN, and will have a chance to further showcase himself after a solid start to his freshman year. The younger brother of Oklahoma City's Jalen Williams, Cody offers intrigue with his mix of size, length, passing instincts and defensive acumen, presenting intriguing upside for him to grow on both ends. His body hasn't filled out yet and he's still raw in some areas, without a polished scoring arsenal and consistent jump shot. While more of a playmaker than a go-to guy, when Williams plays assertively, you can see the blueprint for what he might become. There are still some important developmental unknowns -- he'll need some time, particularly if tasked with handling the ball -- but his point-forward mold is certainly interesting to ponder at the top of this draft class. -- Woo
4. Ja'Kobe Walter | SG/SF | Baylor
6-5 | Age: 19.3 | Previously ranked: 4
Walter is having an excellent season for Baylor, scoring prolifically and efficiently while emerging as one of the best freshman shooters in college basketball. He can shoot running off screens, ducking behind handoffs, or drifting into corner 3s, giving him a ready-made NBA skill. Defensively, he plays with great energy and has the potential to develop into a multipositional stopper with his 6-foot-9 wingspan, even if he's far from that at the moment, giving up far too many blow-bys and suffering lapses off the ball.
While there's a comfort level and relatively high floor stemming from his shot-making, length and outstanding intangibles, Walter's upside is limited somewhat by his just-decent burst and explosiveness, a rudimentary handle, and average passing ability, as he doesn't currently project as a high-level shot creator. He didn't have great showings in any of Baylor's biggest nonconference games outside of a season-opening win against Auburn (28 points), so NBA scouts will be monitoring his play in the loaded Big 12 closely to get a better read on his skill level and feel for the game versus high-level competition to see whether he can make a run at being a top-three pick. -- Givony
5. Nikola Topic | PG | Red Star
6-7 | Age: 18.3 | Previously ranked: 9
Topic has returned to Red Star Belgrade, the club where he began his career, putting him in position to show different elements of his game against a higher level of competition in the EuroLeague. After a historic start to his season with Mega MIS, Topic put himself in the top-five conversation with positional size, creativity and remarkable feel setting him apart, as well as a proclivity for scoring in the paint. NBA teams will closely monitor how his in-season transfer affects his role and production the rest of the season, as he's likely to receive more opportunities to play off the ball and demonstrate his utility. It's not out of the question Topic plays himself higher than this on draft night, considering the dearth of polished lead guards in this class and how advanced he is for his age. -- Woo
6. Tidjane Salaun | PF | Cholet
6-10 | Age: 18.3 | Previously ranked: 15
Salaun had an outstanding December, shooting 17-for-25 from 3 over six games, helping Cholet advance a round in the FIBA Champions League and win three consecutive games in the French league with Salaun entrenched in the starting lineup. The youngest player in LNB Pro A, Salaun is looking increasingly comfortable on both ends of the floor after a slow start. He's showing impressive confidence and shot-making prowess hitting stepback, pullup and deep spot-up 3s, converting 39% of his attempts on the season.
He's also making a significant impact defensively generating turnovers out of Cholet's pressing, switching, trap-heavy system with his outstanding combination of size, length, mobility and intensity, showing impressive agility helping and recovering all over the floor. He's still not a great ball handler, shot creator or passer, and NBA teams will be monitoring the growth of his floor game closely in the second half of the season. At 6-10 and 18 years old, with an enviable frame, physical tools and versatile two-way game, Salaun's sky-high upside could see him drafted as high as the top five if he continues to improve. -- Givony
7. Rob Dillingham | PG | Kentucky
6-2 | Age: 18.9 | Previously ranked: 16
Dillingham continues to show growth at Kentucky, settling into a role in a crowded backcourt in which he has been able to create and make a positive impact. While not gifted with great size, Dillingham changes speeds and creates off the dribble as well as anyone in this draft class, and he has shown maturity in his adjustment to college basketball coming from Overtime Elite's more wide-open league. Dillingham's passing and decision-making has been solid, and he's shooting well from deep thus far. There's a variance of opinion on all of Kentucky's prospects -- and Dillingham's lack of great tools and physicality presents concerns as a viable starter, particularly holding up on the defensive end -- but he has certainly helped his standing two months into the season, and there's some significant upside in the way he creates shots. -- Woo
8. Isaiah Collier | PG | USC
6-5 | Age: 19.2 | Previously ranked: 1
Collier had a difficult December, struggling to score (11.8 PPG) with middling efficiency (50% true shooting), as USC dropped five of its past six games. Collier has been well scouted by opponents, as it's clear he wants to drive left and finish with his right hand at seemingly all costs, missing teammates consistently and not having a midrange game to fall back on. He has made just 21% of his 3-pointers in December after a promising start to the season as a shooter and has been inconsistent with his defensive intensity as well, even if he has trended upward in that area recently.
Collier's excellent size, strength, shot-creating prowess in transition and the flashes he shows as a live dribble-passer are intriguing enough to keep him in the top-10 conversation, but his struggles as a finisher, shooter and decision-maker will create some difficult conversations among NBA teams on draft night if he doesn't pick up his play, especially with USC currently 6-7 (0-2 in conference) and not in the NCAA tournament conversation. -- Givony
9. Kyle Filipowski | PF/C | Duke
7-0 | Age: 20.1 | Previously ranked: 11
Filipowski is in the midst of an All-American season, showing significant improvement while making a major impact on both ends of the floor. Possessing the versatility to operate as a roller, post-up threat, one-on-one creator or spot-up shooter, he has an extremely high skill level and feel for the game for a 7-footer. After some early inconsistent play, Filipowski has increased his intensity level defensively as well, posting an impressive 2.6 blocks, 1.6 steals and 9.6 rebounds in December, most notably anchoring Duke's pick-and-roll defense in an important win over Baylor in front of a host of NBA executives at Madison Square Garden. The challenge will now be to translate that to ACC play, where Duke still has work to do on its résumé to be a high enough NCAA tournament seed to make a Final Four run. -- Givony
10. Matas Buzelis | SF | G League Ignite
6-10 | Age: 19.2 | Previously ranked: 7
Buzelis' December return was a mixed bag: He played a role as Ignite won four of six games, notching a pair of 20-point games against Rip City, then struggled to make his presence felt in two games at the G League Winter Showcase. His long-term appeal is tied primarily to his size and skill level, but he'll need to play with greater all-around consistency and demonstrate more physicality. Still more of a long-term play at this point given his need to add strength, Buzelis will need to back up his ranking with a bit more production to solidify himself as a top-10 prospect. A longer adjustment period to the G League level was predictable here, but he has work to do to back up his lofty preseason standing. -- Woo
11. Ron Holland | SF | G League Ignite
6-7 | Age: 18.4 | Previously ranked: 5
Holland's stock has slipped as scouts have started to figure out his tendencies, amid a disappointing Ignite season that has highlighted both his remarkable athleticism and questionable feel for making decisions. His raw counting stats are notable for a player his age at the G League level, but he has struggled with efficiency, turnovers and 3-point shooting. Holland doesn't look like a player who can handle heavy offensive usage anytime soon. While that projection is less optimistic than it was a few months ago, Holland still offers a strong upside on the defensive end, where he can be highly impactful with his energy and might eventually settle into a solid role. Expectations need to be reframed, but there's still time for Holland to smooth some things out and allow the game to slow down for him. -- Woo
12. Ryan Dunn | SF/PF | Virginia
6-8 | Age: 20.9 | Previously ranked: 12
Dunn profiles as one of the draft's bigger developmental bets. Where a team decides to select him hangs largely on risk tolerance. He's a stellar defender and plus athlete with great potential on that side of the floor, but his offense is a major work in progress, with his jump shot in a nascent stage of development. His role in Virginia's offense (where he works as more of a dive man and screener) is far different than what he'll do in the NBA, but it's also necessitated by Dunn's struggles to space the floor. If a team believes it can develop his shooting, he's a highly intriguing prospect -- but he may wind up somewhat polarizing due to the risk attached. Dunn is just 4-for-21 from 3 in 13 games, so it's likely these concerns follow him into the pre-draft process, where teams will be eager to evaluate his shooting in private workouts. -- Woo
13. Donovan Clingan | C | UConn
7-2 | Age: 19.8 | Previously ranked: 6
Coming off his best performance of the season in a win over Gonzaga, Clingan's choppy sophomore campaign was derailed yet again by another foot injury that will cause him to miss most of January. Already having missed a month of preseason with an injury to the same right foot, Clingan was also ruled a game-time decision earlier this month with a toe injury in his left foot. Considering the track record of foot injuries with 7-3 centers in Clingan's mold, this will be something NBA teams will be studying closely in the pre-draft process. Clingan's conditioning did not look up to par in the dozen games he did play this season, where he wasn't running or jumping as effectively as he did as a freshman, with his rebounding and dunk numbers down considerably. Getting back to full strength closer to the NCAA tournament will be imperative for UConn and Clingan. -- Givony
14. Zach Edey | C | Purdue
7-4 | Age: 21.6 | Previously ranked: 32
The runaway favorite to repeat as national player of the year, Edey has found another gear with his conditioning, mobility and productivity, looking noticeably more impactful on both ends of the floor. He has shown better versatility stepping outside the paint defensively, blocking shots prolifically while drawing fouls and dunking even more than usual, finding some real swagger to his game this season.
Edey has done it against many of the top teams in college basketball, with big performances against Arizona, Alabama, Marquette and Tennessee, even showing some new facets to his game as a passer when double-teams inevitably come. While there will surely be some skepticism around his age, lack of perimeter shooting and ability to hold his own as a pick-and-roll defender, Edey has some clear virtues NBA teams can tap into early in his career and is worthy of a fresh look, possibly as a lottery-level prospect in a class lacking sure-fire contributors. -- Givony
15. Kevin McCullar Jr. | SG/SF | Kansas
6-7 | Age: 22.8 | Previously ranked: 18
Amid a workhorse season at Kansas, McCullar continues to play the best basketball of his career, functioning in a demanding two-way role as a high-volume scorer and top wing defender. His NBA role will be highly scaled down, and there will likely still be some skepticism factoring in his age at his level and his surprising leap as a 40% 3-point shooter. But the potential to plug McCullar in immediately on the wing will have appeal in a thinner draft, where front offices might be more justified taking an older, productive prospect over a longer-view project. -- Woo
16. Reed Sheppard | PG/SG | Kentucky
6-2 | Age: 19.5 | Previously ranked: 22
The biggest surprise of the NBA draft cycle thus far, Sheppard has played an essential role in Kentucky's transformation into one of the fastest-paced offenses in college basketball. He has emerged as arguably the best shooter in the class, shooting 28-for-50 from 3 (56%) through 12 games, while showing high-level pace and court vision whipping passes all over the floor with his terrific feel for the game.
This also manifests itself vividly on the defensive end, with Sheppard generating steals and blocks at an outstanding rate. Measured at just 6-2 with a 6-3 wingspan, Sheppard's physical tools are a major question mark, especially since he has struggled at times handling pressure and being swallowed up inside the paint as a primary ball handler versus the better teams Kentucky has faced. As good a defender as he is off the ball, he gets overpowered one-on-one by bigger players as well. For those reasons, SEC competition will reveal a lot about Sheppard, particularly in how his role evolves operating behind and alongside Kentucky's other star freshman guards. -- Givony
17. Stephon Castle | PG/SG | UConn
6-6 | Age: 19.1 | Previously ranked: 8
Another UConn underclassman who has battled injuries, Castle missed nearly a month because of a meniscus procedure from which he seemingly hasn't fully recovered. Recently reentering the starting lineup, his playing time has ticked up, but he has struggled to make much of an impact offensively. He looks reluctant and limited as a perimeter shooter (1-for-8 from 3), while appearing tentative attacking the rim and struggling to make good decisions with the ball. Defensively, Castle has added more value, being difficult to score on one one-on-one while making an impact flying around with his outstanding length to get in passing lanes and rotate to protect the rim. NBA teams will be patiently waiting to see whether Castle's breakout comes during Big East play, as it's likely he'll either be picked much higher or lower than where he's currently slated, if he does enter the draft at all. -- Givony
18. Tyler Smith | SF/PF | G League Ignite
6-10 | Age: 19.1 | Previously ranked: 25
In a down year for Ignite, Smith has been on a positive trajectory, making a solid adjustment to the G League and showing off his comfort as a jump shooter, a skill that should translate well at his size. He still has a lot of work to do in all areas to hold up as a stretch big in the NBA, particularly with his physicality, rebounding and defense, and he's currently a bit of a forward tweener as a result. Still, the outline of the useful frontcourt role Smith might eventually play is clear, and he has put himself in solid first-round consideration. -- Woo
19. Trevon Brazile | PF/C | Arkansas
6-10 | Age: 20.9 | Previously ranked: 19
Brazile's December production didn't exactly support his first-round status, but his appeal comes more as a long-term development piece due to his ability to block shots and shoot from distance in the frontcourt. Though still a ways off in terms of feel, physical strength and productivity, the demand for competent, athletic floor-spacers should hold teams' interest into the spring. Considering his tools, shooting and athleticism, Brazile is the type of prospect who tends to become more attractive during the pre-draft process, setting him up for a potential rise over the next few months. -- Woo
20. Yves Missi | C | Baylor
6-11 | Age: 19.6 | Previously ranked: 29
Missi has exceeded expectations thus far, especially considering he started playing organized basketball in 2018. He's one of the most physically gifted players in the class, boasting a 9-1 standing reach and showing exceptional mobility covering ground and getting off his feet quickly. He has a clear-cut role as an offensive rebounder and vertical spacer with excellent hands and finishing ability, with intriguing defensive versatility sliding his feet and protecting the rim. His passing ability, lack of shooting range and defensive lapses are things NBA teams will want to get a better handle on as the year moves on. Missi has been inconsistent in Baylor's biggest games, outside of his excellent showing versus Duke last week, but has significant long-term upside to grow into. -- Givony
21. Bobi Klintman | SF/PF | Cairns
6-10 | Age: 20.8 | Previously ranked: 21
While Klintman has never been a bannerman for consistency -- he has tallied 22, 4, 4, 8, 24, 0 and 5 points in his past seven games -- he has demonstrated strong flashes of the player he might become if he's able to harness his game regularly. Klintman looks like less of a theoretical prospect and more of a player than he did in college, having shown some interesting scoring flashes, but also some poor habits, particularly on defense. He could wind up being pretty versatile and impact the game with his athletic ability and shooting, but his history of mercurial production and impact makes this a tricky situation to evaluate right now. -- Woo
22. Kel'el Ware | C | Indiana
7-0 | Age: 19.6 | Previously ranked: 15
Ware has dominated lower-level competition while being inconsistent against similar-sized big men, giving him much to prove heading into Big Ten play. It's hard to find long-armed 7-1 centers with mobility and skill, especially facing the basket, where he shows promising ability to stretch the floor. Ware has made some strides with his passing and intensity level, but he still has some questions to answer about his lack of physicality and court awareness on both ends of the floor, as Donovan Clingan (UConn), Johni Broome (Auburn) and Hunter Dickinson (Kansas) got the best of him, as he shot just 4-for-22 inside the arc versus that trio of All-Conference bigs. NBA teams will want to fall in love with his upside in the pre-draft process, but how the 19-year-old interviews will be just as important as his play this season. -- Givony
23. Izan Almansa | PF/C | G League Ignite
6-10 | Age: 18.4 | Previously ranked: 14
Almansa has been inconsistent with G League Ignite thus far, not having a very notable showing at December's G League Winter Showcase, but bouncing back with some of his best performances of the season since. The 18-year-old is still finding his way in Ignite's haphazard offense, not doing enough with his limited touches due to a lack of shooting range and elite explosiveness. His timing and feel for the game as a passer and pick-and-roll operator still shine through along with his instincts and defensive versatility, but he has much to gain from playing with a greater degree of aggressiveness and physicality the next three months. -- Givony
24. Dalton Knecht | SG/SF | Tennessee
6-6 | Age: 22.7 | Previously ranked: 29
Knecht struggled to regain top form in December after a late-November ankle injury slowed his momentum. He looked like one of the best scorers in college basketball the first month of the season, with a polished, decisive game that has a chance to translate to the NBA on the sooner end. If he can turn things back around in conference play, it should help solidify his status as a first-round-level player. Teams have questions about Knecht defensively, where opponents have tried to hunt him this season, and he's on the older side (he will be 23 on draft night). Still, his scoring ability will appeal to teams that need immediate help on the wing, and there aren't a ton of wing prospects in his mold who have set themselves apart this season. -- Woo
25. Oso Ighodaro | PF/C | Marquette
6-11 | Age: 21.4 | Previously ranked: 20
Ighodaro has a unique skill set that makes him an attractive role-playing option on both ends of the floor. He is skillful at pushing the ball off the defensive glass and operating as a playmaker in Marquette's offense out of dribble handoffs and short rolls, creating shots for himself and others with his excellent passing ability. He's a fluid, mobile and switchable defender who shows excellent instincts rotating off the ball with toughness and smarts. Not having much in the way of shooting range and just an average defensive rebounder, Ighodaro won't be a fit for every NBA team as he isn't blessed with elite long-term upside, but he should be able to develop into a solid contributor thanks to his outstanding feel for the game and defensive versatility. -- Givony
Another month, another change at the top of our NBA draft board.
Isaiah Collier was previously ranked No. 1, but the USC freshman guard struggled to score in December as the Trojans have lost five of their past six games.
As a result, the steady Alex Sarr is now No. 1 in ESPN's top 25 rankings. The 7-foot-1 big has continued to improve for Perth this season in the NBL after initially moving up draft boards following his two-game outing against the G League Ignite in September.
One prospect making a jump of nearly 20 spots to crack the top 15 is Purdue's Zach Edey, the reigning national player of the year. Edey returned to school for his senior season, and his game has found another gear against some of the top teams in college basketball.
Conference play is here, so these rankings -- complied by NBA draft expert Jonathan Givony, with Jeremy Woo assisting in providing analysis -- will change as we inch closer to June's 2024 NBA draft.
Check back all season as we inform you of the risers and fallers of this unpredictable draft class.
1. Alex Sarr | PF/C | Perth
7-1 | Age: 18.6 | Previously ranked: 2
EDITOR'S PICKS
2024 NBA draft: Making the case for selecting Alex Sarr with the No. 1 pick
13d•Jeremy Woo
Sarr continues to produce for Perth, winners of nine of their past 11 games, stringing together some of his best games of the season in December. He plays a compact, efficient role as a cutter, roller and offensive rebounder, with plenty of freedom to demonstrate his versatile skill set pushing off the defensive glass and facilitating as a passer, making perimeter shots in a variety of ways, and showing his excellent footwork and soft touch as a finisher. Sarr ranks among the NBL's best shot-blockers, but he is highly switchable on the perimeter with his quick feet, long arms and outstanding mobility. Adding strength and becoming a more physical rebounder will be important, but it's difficult to nitpick his play too much considering his productivity versus high-level competition in a situation in which he's not just being spoonfed playing time. Sarr's continued improvement this season, overall consistency and outstanding NBA fit playing a similar role to the likes of Evan Mobley and Chet Holmgren makes him a safe choice currently as the potential No. 1 pick. -- Jonathan Givony
2. Zaccharie Risacher | SF | JL Bourg
6-10 | Age: 18.7 | Previously ranked: 3
Risacher emerged this season as a more decisive and confident player, with the size and skill level to play a highly valuable NBA archetype. He's playing a major role on a good Bourg team that has given him a strong runway to develop his game. In a year with no clear No. 1 pick, Risacher's steady trajectory has enhanced his standing as a prospect. There's quite a bit for teams to work with, and the growth he has shown has put him in the conversation at the very top of the draft.
While unlikely to carry an offense with his scoring, Risacher's ability to facilitate, space the floor and attack space off the dribble gives him a good baseline level of versatility and leaves room to evolve. Defensively, he plays an active, intelligent style and can guard multiple positions. As a tall, switchable perimeter player who can mix and match with a wide range of lineups around him -- and one of the younger players in the draft -- Risacher offers a good mix of floor and upside. -- Jeremy Woo
3. Cody Williams | SG/SF | Colorado
6-8 | Age: 19.1 | Previously ranked: 10
Currently sidelined with a wrist injury, Williams is expected to return in the coming week, a source told ESPN, and will have a chance to further showcase himself after a solid start to his freshman year. The younger brother of Oklahoma City's Jalen Williams, Cody offers intrigue with his mix of size, length, passing instincts and defensive acumen, presenting intriguing upside for him to grow on both ends. His body hasn't filled out yet and he's still raw in some areas, without a polished scoring arsenal and consistent jump shot. While more of a playmaker than a go-to guy, when Williams plays assertively, you can see the blueprint for what he might become. There are still some important developmental unknowns -- he'll need some time, particularly if tasked with handling the ball -- but his point-forward mold is certainly interesting to ponder at the top of this draft class. -- Woo
4. Ja'Kobe Walter | SG/SF | Baylor
6-5 | Age: 19.3 | Previously ranked: 4
Walter is having an excellent season for Baylor, scoring prolifically and efficiently while emerging as one of the best freshman shooters in college basketball. He can shoot running off screens, ducking behind handoffs, or drifting into corner 3s, giving him a ready-made NBA skill. Defensively, he plays with great energy and has the potential to develop into a multipositional stopper with his 6-foot-9 wingspan, even if he's far from that at the moment, giving up far too many blow-bys and suffering lapses off the ball.
While there's a comfort level and relatively high floor stemming from his shot-making, length and outstanding intangibles, Walter's upside is limited somewhat by his just-decent burst and explosiveness, a rudimentary handle, and average passing ability, as he doesn't currently project as a high-level shot creator. He didn't have great showings in any of Baylor's biggest nonconference games outside of a season-opening win against Auburn (28 points), so NBA scouts will be monitoring his play in the loaded Big 12 closely to get a better read on his skill level and feel for the game versus high-level competition to see whether he can make a run at being a top-three pick. -- Givony
5. Nikola Topic | PG | Red Star
6-7 | Age: 18.3 | Previously ranked: 9
Topic has returned to Red Star Belgrade, the club where he began his career, putting him in position to show different elements of his game against a higher level of competition in the EuroLeague. After a historic start to his season with Mega MIS, Topic put himself in the top-five conversation with positional size, creativity and remarkable feel setting him apart, as well as a proclivity for scoring in the paint. NBA teams will closely monitor how his in-season transfer affects his role and production the rest of the season, as he's likely to receive more opportunities to play off the ball and demonstrate his utility. It's not out of the question Topic plays himself higher than this on draft night, considering the dearth of polished lead guards in this class and how advanced he is for his age. -- Woo
6. Tidjane Salaun | PF | Cholet
6-10 | Age: 18.3 | Previously ranked: 15
Salaun had an outstanding December, shooting 17-for-25 from 3 over six games, helping Cholet advance a round in the FIBA Champions League and win three consecutive games in the French league with Salaun entrenched in the starting lineup. The youngest player in LNB Pro A, Salaun is looking increasingly comfortable on both ends of the floor after a slow start. He's showing impressive confidence and shot-making prowess hitting stepback, pullup and deep spot-up 3s, converting 39% of his attempts on the season.
He's also making a significant impact defensively generating turnovers out of Cholet's pressing, switching, trap-heavy system with his outstanding combination of size, length, mobility and intensity, showing impressive agility helping and recovering all over the floor. He's still not a great ball handler, shot creator or passer, and NBA teams will be monitoring the growth of his floor game closely in the second half of the season. At 6-10 and 18 years old, with an enviable frame, physical tools and versatile two-way game, Salaun's sky-high upside could see him drafted as high as the top five if he continues to improve. -- Givony
7. Rob Dillingham | PG | Kentucky
6-2 | Age: 18.9 | Previously ranked: 16
Dillingham continues to show growth at Kentucky, settling into a role in a crowded backcourt in which he has been able to create and make a positive impact. While not gifted with great size, Dillingham changes speeds and creates off the dribble as well as anyone in this draft class, and he has shown maturity in his adjustment to college basketball coming from Overtime Elite's more wide-open league. Dillingham's passing and decision-making has been solid, and he's shooting well from deep thus far. There's a variance of opinion on all of Kentucky's prospects -- and Dillingham's lack of great tools and physicality presents concerns as a viable starter, particularly holding up on the defensive end -- but he has certainly helped his standing two months into the season, and there's some significant upside in the way he creates shots. -- Woo
8. Isaiah Collier | PG | USC
6-5 | Age: 19.2 | Previously ranked: 1
Collier had a difficult December, struggling to score (11.8 PPG) with middling efficiency (50% true shooting), as USC dropped five of its past six games. Collier has been well scouted by opponents, as it's clear he wants to drive left and finish with his right hand at seemingly all costs, missing teammates consistently and not having a midrange game to fall back on. He has made just 21% of his 3-pointers in December after a promising start to the season as a shooter and has been inconsistent with his defensive intensity as well, even if he has trended upward in that area recently.
Collier's excellent size, strength, shot-creating prowess in transition and the flashes he shows as a live dribble-passer are intriguing enough to keep him in the top-10 conversation, but his struggles as a finisher, shooter and decision-maker will create some difficult conversations among NBA teams on draft night if he doesn't pick up his play, especially with USC currently 6-7 (0-2 in conference) and not in the NCAA tournament conversation. -- Givony
9. Kyle Filipowski | PF/C | Duke
7-0 | Age: 20.1 | Previously ranked: 11
Filipowski is in the midst of an All-American season, showing significant improvement while making a major impact on both ends of the floor. Possessing the versatility to operate as a roller, post-up threat, one-on-one creator or spot-up shooter, he has an extremely high skill level and feel for the game for a 7-footer. After some early inconsistent play, Filipowski has increased his intensity level defensively as well, posting an impressive 2.6 blocks, 1.6 steals and 9.6 rebounds in December, most notably anchoring Duke's pick-and-roll defense in an important win over Baylor in front of a host of NBA executives at Madison Square Garden. The challenge will now be to translate that to ACC play, where Duke still has work to do on its résumé to be a high enough NCAA tournament seed to make a Final Four run. -- Givony
10. Matas Buzelis | SF | G League Ignite
6-10 | Age: 19.2 | Previously ranked: 7
Buzelis' December return was a mixed bag: He played a role as Ignite won four of six games, notching a pair of 20-point games against Rip City, then struggled to make his presence felt in two games at the G League Winter Showcase. His long-term appeal is tied primarily to his size and skill level, but he'll need to play with greater all-around consistency and demonstrate more physicality. Still more of a long-term play at this point given his need to add strength, Buzelis will need to back up his ranking with a bit more production to solidify himself as a top-10 prospect. A longer adjustment period to the G League level was predictable here, but he has work to do to back up his lofty preseason standing. -- Woo
11. Ron Holland | SF | G League Ignite
6-7 | Age: 18.4 | Previously ranked: 5
Holland's stock has slipped as scouts have started to figure out his tendencies, amid a disappointing Ignite season that has highlighted both his remarkable athleticism and questionable feel for making decisions. His raw counting stats are notable for a player his age at the G League level, but he has struggled with efficiency, turnovers and 3-point shooting. Holland doesn't look like a player who can handle heavy offensive usage anytime soon. While that projection is less optimistic than it was a few months ago, Holland still offers a strong upside on the defensive end, where he can be highly impactful with his energy and might eventually settle into a solid role. Expectations need to be reframed, but there's still time for Holland to smooth some things out and allow the game to slow down for him. -- Woo
12. Ryan Dunn | SF/PF | Virginia
6-8 | Age: 20.9 | Previously ranked: 12
Dunn profiles as one of the draft's bigger developmental bets. Where a team decides to select him hangs largely on risk tolerance. He's a stellar defender and plus athlete with great potential on that side of the floor, but his offense is a major work in progress, with his jump shot in a nascent stage of development. His role in Virginia's offense (where he works as more of a dive man and screener) is far different than what he'll do in the NBA, but it's also necessitated by Dunn's struggles to space the floor. If a team believes it can develop his shooting, he's a highly intriguing prospect -- but he may wind up somewhat polarizing due to the risk attached. Dunn is just 4-for-21 from 3 in 13 games, so it's likely these concerns follow him into the pre-draft process, where teams will be eager to evaluate his shooting in private workouts. -- Woo
13. Donovan Clingan | C | UConn
7-2 | Age: 19.8 | Previously ranked: 6
Coming off his best performance of the season in a win over Gonzaga, Clingan's choppy sophomore campaign was derailed yet again by another foot injury that will cause him to miss most of January. Already having missed a month of preseason with an injury to the same right foot, Clingan was also ruled a game-time decision earlier this month with a toe injury in his left foot. Considering the track record of foot injuries with 7-3 centers in Clingan's mold, this will be something NBA teams will be studying closely in the pre-draft process. Clingan's conditioning did not look up to par in the dozen games he did play this season, where he wasn't running or jumping as effectively as he did as a freshman, with his rebounding and dunk numbers down considerably. Getting back to full strength closer to the NCAA tournament will be imperative for UConn and Clingan. -- Givony
14. Zach Edey | C | Purdue
7-4 | Age: 21.6 | Previously ranked: 32
The runaway favorite to repeat as national player of the year, Edey has found another gear with his conditioning, mobility and productivity, looking noticeably more impactful on both ends of the floor. He has shown better versatility stepping outside the paint defensively, blocking shots prolifically while drawing fouls and dunking even more than usual, finding some real swagger to his game this season.
Edey has done it against many of the top teams in college basketball, with big performances against Arizona, Alabama, Marquette and Tennessee, even showing some new facets to his game as a passer when double-teams inevitably come. While there will surely be some skepticism around his age, lack of perimeter shooting and ability to hold his own as a pick-and-roll defender, Edey has some clear virtues NBA teams can tap into early in his career and is worthy of a fresh look, possibly as a lottery-level prospect in a class lacking sure-fire contributors. -- Givony
15. Kevin McCullar Jr. | SG/SF | Kansas
6-7 | Age: 22.8 | Previously ranked: 18
Amid a workhorse season at Kansas, McCullar continues to play the best basketball of his career, functioning in a demanding two-way role as a high-volume scorer and top wing defender. His NBA role will be highly scaled down, and there will likely still be some skepticism factoring in his age at his level and his surprising leap as a 40% 3-point shooter. But the potential to plug McCullar in immediately on the wing will have appeal in a thinner draft, where front offices might be more justified taking an older, productive prospect over a longer-view project. -- Woo
16. Reed Sheppard | PG/SG | Kentucky
6-2 | Age: 19.5 | Previously ranked: 22
The biggest surprise of the NBA draft cycle thus far, Sheppard has played an essential role in Kentucky's transformation into one of the fastest-paced offenses in college basketball. He has emerged as arguably the best shooter in the class, shooting 28-for-50 from 3 (56%) through 12 games, while showing high-level pace and court vision whipping passes all over the floor with his terrific feel for the game.
This also manifests itself vividly on the defensive end, with Sheppard generating steals and blocks at an outstanding rate. Measured at just 6-2 with a 6-3 wingspan, Sheppard's physical tools are a major question mark, especially since he has struggled at times handling pressure and being swallowed up inside the paint as a primary ball handler versus the better teams Kentucky has faced. As good a defender as he is off the ball, he gets overpowered one-on-one by bigger players as well. For those reasons, SEC competition will reveal a lot about Sheppard, particularly in how his role evolves operating behind and alongside Kentucky's other star freshman guards. -- Givony
17. Stephon Castle | PG/SG | UConn
6-6 | Age: 19.1 | Previously ranked: 8
Another UConn underclassman who has battled injuries, Castle missed nearly a month because of a meniscus procedure from which he seemingly hasn't fully recovered. Recently reentering the starting lineup, his playing time has ticked up, but he has struggled to make much of an impact offensively. He looks reluctant and limited as a perimeter shooter (1-for-8 from 3), while appearing tentative attacking the rim and struggling to make good decisions with the ball. Defensively, Castle has added more value, being difficult to score on one one-on-one while making an impact flying around with his outstanding length to get in passing lanes and rotate to protect the rim. NBA teams will be patiently waiting to see whether Castle's breakout comes during Big East play, as it's likely he'll either be picked much higher or lower than where he's currently slated, if he does enter the draft at all. -- Givony
18. Tyler Smith | SF/PF | G League Ignite
6-10 | Age: 19.1 | Previously ranked: 25
In a down year for Ignite, Smith has been on a positive trajectory, making a solid adjustment to the G League and showing off his comfort as a jump shooter, a skill that should translate well at his size. He still has a lot of work to do in all areas to hold up as a stretch big in the NBA, particularly with his physicality, rebounding and defense, and he's currently a bit of a forward tweener as a result. Still, the outline of the useful frontcourt role Smith might eventually play is clear, and he has put himself in solid first-round consideration. -- Woo
19. Trevon Brazile | PF/C | Arkansas
6-10 | Age: 20.9 | Previously ranked: 19
Brazile's December production didn't exactly support his first-round status, but his appeal comes more as a long-term development piece due to his ability to block shots and shoot from distance in the frontcourt. Though still a ways off in terms of feel, physical strength and productivity, the demand for competent, athletic floor-spacers should hold teams' interest into the spring. Considering his tools, shooting and athleticism, Brazile is the type of prospect who tends to become more attractive during the pre-draft process, setting him up for a potential rise over the next few months. -- Woo
20. Yves Missi | C | Baylor
6-11 | Age: 19.6 | Previously ranked: 29
Missi has exceeded expectations thus far, especially considering he started playing organized basketball in 2018. He's one of the most physically gifted players in the class, boasting a 9-1 standing reach and showing exceptional mobility covering ground and getting off his feet quickly. He has a clear-cut role as an offensive rebounder and vertical spacer with excellent hands and finishing ability, with intriguing defensive versatility sliding his feet and protecting the rim. His passing ability, lack of shooting range and defensive lapses are things NBA teams will want to get a better handle on as the year moves on. Missi has been inconsistent in Baylor's biggest games, outside of his excellent showing versus Duke last week, but has significant long-term upside to grow into. -- Givony
21. Bobi Klintman | SF/PF | Cairns
6-10 | Age: 20.8 | Previously ranked: 21
While Klintman has never been a bannerman for consistency -- he has tallied 22, 4, 4, 8, 24, 0 and 5 points in his past seven games -- he has demonstrated strong flashes of the player he might become if he's able to harness his game regularly. Klintman looks like less of a theoretical prospect and more of a player than he did in college, having shown some interesting scoring flashes, but also some poor habits, particularly on defense. He could wind up being pretty versatile and impact the game with his athletic ability and shooting, but his history of mercurial production and impact makes this a tricky situation to evaluate right now. -- Woo
22. Kel'el Ware | C | Indiana
7-0 | Age: 19.6 | Previously ranked: 15
Ware has dominated lower-level competition while being inconsistent against similar-sized big men, giving him much to prove heading into Big Ten play. It's hard to find long-armed 7-1 centers with mobility and skill, especially facing the basket, where he shows promising ability to stretch the floor. Ware has made some strides with his passing and intensity level, but he still has some questions to answer about his lack of physicality and court awareness on both ends of the floor, as Donovan Clingan (UConn), Johni Broome (Auburn) and Hunter Dickinson (Kansas) got the best of him, as he shot just 4-for-22 inside the arc versus that trio of All-Conference bigs. NBA teams will want to fall in love with his upside in the pre-draft process, but how the 19-year-old interviews will be just as important as his play this season. -- Givony
23. Izan Almansa | PF/C | G League Ignite
6-10 | Age: 18.4 | Previously ranked: 14
Almansa has been inconsistent with G League Ignite thus far, not having a very notable showing at December's G League Winter Showcase, but bouncing back with some of his best performances of the season since. The 18-year-old is still finding his way in Ignite's haphazard offense, not doing enough with his limited touches due to a lack of shooting range and elite explosiveness. His timing and feel for the game as a passer and pick-and-roll operator still shine through along with his instincts and defensive versatility, but he has much to gain from playing with a greater degree of aggressiveness and physicality the next three months. -- Givony
24. Dalton Knecht | SG/SF | Tennessee
6-6 | Age: 22.7 | Previously ranked: 29
Knecht struggled to regain top form in December after a late-November ankle injury slowed his momentum. He looked like one of the best scorers in college basketball the first month of the season, with a polished, decisive game that has a chance to translate to the NBA on the sooner end. If he can turn things back around in conference play, it should help solidify his status as a first-round-level player. Teams have questions about Knecht defensively, where opponents have tried to hunt him this season, and he's on the older side (he will be 23 on draft night). Still, his scoring ability will appeal to teams that need immediate help on the wing, and there aren't a ton of wing prospects in his mold who have set themselves apart this season. -- Woo
25. Oso Ighodaro | PF/C | Marquette
6-11 | Age: 21.4 | Previously ranked: 20
Ighodaro has a unique skill set that makes him an attractive role-playing option on both ends of the floor. He is skillful at pushing the ball off the defensive glass and operating as a playmaker in Marquette's offense out of dribble handoffs and short rolls, creating shots for himself and others with his excellent passing ability. He's a fluid, mobile and switchable defender who shows excellent instincts rotating off the ball with toughness and smarts. Not having much in the way of shooting range and just an average defensive rebounder, Ighodaro won't be a fit for every NBA team as he isn't blessed with elite long-term upside, but he should be able to develop into a solid contributor thanks to his outstanding feel for the game and defensive versatility. -- Givony
- Sep 18, 2003
- 61,927
- 134,320
We did a mock draft on new years. Some similarities to ESPN. Some surprises.
- Jul 20, 2009
- 64,968
- 196,213
These mocks looking like NCAA Tourney brackets at my office
Each one is wild different
Each one is wild different
dacomeup
Supporter
- Jan 20, 2006
- 26,645
- 37,694
Lot of bigs in that mock. Edey in the lotto 
They’re calling the Salaun kid the French Giannis?
addict4sneakers
They’re calling the Salaun kid the French Giannis?
addict4sneakers
- Sep 18, 2003
- 61,927
- 134,320
Ehhhhh Trey Murphy which you would absolutely take.Lot of bigs in that mock. Edey in the lotto
They’re calling the Salaun kid the French Giannis?
- Sep 18, 2003
- 61,927
- 134,320
Let me put NT on
- Apr 5, 2008
- 39,595
- 80,216
- Apr 5, 2008
- 39,595
- 80,216
- Sep 5, 2010
- 93,220
- 129,831
- Sep 5, 2010
- 93,220
- 129,831
- Nov 5, 2012
- 80,694
- 55,639
California’s next up
- Mar 22, 2003
- 28,993
- 17,663
Vincent Van Goat
EYE have been the only Alijah fan for years here - stop it
- Apr 5, 2008
- 39,595
- 80,216
- Sep 5, 2010
- 93,220
- 129,831
NBA draft survey: Who will go No. 1, the state of G League Ignite and the most intriguing prospect post-2024
The 2024 NBA draft is still six months away, but there appears to be a prospect that's currently trending as a frontrunner for the No. 1 pick.
ESPN's Jeremy Woo polled 20 NBA executives and scouts since the G League Winter Showcase to get a better handle on the 2024 draft and its major storylines. Team personnel offered their insights on five different topics, on the condition of anonymity. One of those questions was who executives expected to be the top pick in a draft class that appears to lack a generational prospect.
We also asked NBA personnel if they were in favor of a potential two-day draft, whether G League Ignite has been a success, if the 2024 draft class will have as many All-Stars as 2013 and the most intriguing prospect after this year.
1. Who do you expect will be the No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft?
Results (20 ballots)
1. Alex Sarr: 12 votes
2. Not sure/declined to answer: 4 votes
3. Ron Holland: 2 votes
Also receiving votes: Nikola Topic, Isaiah Collier (1 vote each)
The uncertain nature of the 2024 NBA draft will be a major storyline up until June 27. The common refrain around the league has been that there's very little consensus at No. 1, with several voters emphasizing the choice will depend heavily on which team wins the May lottery.
With that in mind, based on the results of the poll, Perth's Alex Sarr appears to be trending as the current frontrunner, following a strong month of December in the National Basketball League in Australia.
The 7-foot-1 French big man is currently sidelined with a hip injury but is presently expected to return before the end of the season. It's worth noting that several of the Sarr voters expressed their lack of confidence in that outcome, but viewed him as the tentative best bet.
"We are in a strange cycle this year where there is no consensus, and it may be more practical for the team at No. 1 to factor in individual need [more heavily than normal] to make the first pick work," one high-ranking Western Conference executive told ESPN. "For example, if that team has [a] need for a big that has utility-based upside, they may be best served taking Sarr."
Sarr's youth, versatility as a mobile defender and perimeter-friendly forward -- coupled with the league-wide demand for tall, skilled frontcourt players -- could give him the broadest degree of appeal amongst the top candidates. Sarr's NBL role has been modest, but he's grown into it nicely and demonstrated he can impact winning, which puts him in a good developmental place for a 7-footer who has yet to turn 19 and is still getting his first real taste of high-level basketball.
Despite his star dimming somewhat over the past couple months, G League Ignite's Ron Holland received two votes, with Serbian Nikola Topic and USC's Isaiah Collier each receiving one. Our highest-ranked prospect not to receive a vote was French wing Zaccharie Risacher, who continues to trend as a top-five selection.
2. What class will end up with more All-Stars: 2013 (three) or 2024?
1. 2013: 13 votes
2. 2024: 5 votes
3. Tie: 2 votes
The 2013 NBA draft is regarded as one of the worst in modern league history, with No. 1 overall pick Anthony Bennett washing out of the league in less than five years, and the draft producing just three All-Stars: Victor Oladipo (No. 2 pick, whose career has been marred by injury), two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo (No. 15 pick), and four-time All-NBA and three-time defensive player of the year Rudy Gobert (No. 27 pick). Other than CJ McCollum, who's had an excellent career after being selected at No. 10, the rest of that class hasn't been particularly notable.
Using 2013 as a barometer, we asked team personnel to venture a guess at how the 2024 class might stack up. Participants were not asked to specify which players could break out at the next level but simply whether they thought 2024 might produce more All-Star level talent.
Responses were mostly pessimistic, although there was some cautious optimism to be found, with one executive citing the overall advances league-wide in player development over the past decade. Another exec expressed a hunch that, much like 2013, a surprise star or two might be lying in wait beyond the obvious top-pick candidates. So, while the attitude around the NBA has largely been that 2024 projects as a down year for draftable talent, it's worth keeping in mind how unexpected and seemingly random player development can be.
3. Are you in favor of the NBA draft being conducted over two days?
1. No: 14 votes
2. Yes: 6 votes
The current expectation around the NBA is the league likely moving to a two-day draft format this year, with the first and second rounds taking place on separate days. That move would help slow down the often hectic pace of the draft, particularly in the second round, where teams are afforded less time on the clock to make decisions (the first round clock lasts five minutes; the second round has traditionally been two).
Voters largely preferred the one-day draft format, expressing some resistance to change, the value of simply getting the draft over within a night, and even some appreciation for the frenetic pace, which moves much faster than the NFL draft, for comparison. Some felt the shorter draft creates a competitive advantage for well-prepared teams, and that more time levels the playing field, but in a way that isn't fully necessary.
Those in favor of the potential change felt it would be valuable for teams to have added time to make transactions around the draft and to strategize around their second-round selections.
"Round 2 goes by so fast and half the time we [can't keep track of] who's getting selected," one Eastern Conference general manager told ESPN. "It would help every team to have that extra day, but more importantly the players getting selected can be spotlighted more, instead of the picks going at lightning speed."
"It's probably a nightmare for agents dealing with their clients who thought they would be selected in the first round," another Eastern Conference executive told ESPN, "but the change would be better for teams and the overall process."
4. Would you consider G League Ignite a success?
1. Yes: 12 votes
2. No: 7 votes
3. Declined to answer: 1 vote
At December's G League Showcase, where Ignite lost twice, we took the temperature of team personnel, asking them to assess the program's progress, which is now in its fourth season. There was a wide range of opinions on the matter and voters aired on the optimistic side, with many expressing the positives (player development and preparation, the creation of an alternate draft pathway, and exposure for evaluation purposes) have outweighed the program's struggles (underscored by this year's roster of eight draft prospects largely not playing to expectations).
Voters seemed largely satisfied with Ignite's player development track record, which has hosted lottery-level players such as Portland's Scoot Henderson, Houston's Jalen Green, Golden State's Jonathan Kuminga and New Orleans' Dyson Daniels, and seen the majority of its prospects drafted (only two Ignite prospects, Daishen Nix and Michael Foster Jr., have gone undrafted). But there was also a wide concession the program has hit tough straits this season, and that the current setup wasn't necessarily being optimized for all the players to succeed. But overall, voters seemed optimistic about the potential of the Ignite concept long-term.
"I wish they would maybe focus on fewer prospects per season, but in general, I think it prepares those kids for the next level well," one Eastern Conference scout told ESPN, "[but] if you have too many, some get left behind a bit."
Concerns included Ignite's ability to recruit moving forward against the growth of name, image and likeness budgets amongst college programs. Another critique was the program's top products all entered the program with significant buzz, and Ignite struggled to help some of the more fringe talents develop the necessary skills to succeed and stick in the NBA. There's a constant challenge to incentivize prospects to play winning basketball, versus competing primarily to enhance their own draft positioning.
"This is the big difference between evals of college players and the Ignite," a Western Conference executive told ESPN. "The players at Connecticut are playing for the national championship, while winning the G League title doesn't have as much value to the players."
5. Who is the most intriguing prospect not currently eligible for the draft?
1. Cooper Flagg: 12 votes
2. A.J. Dybantsa: 3 votes
Also receiving votes: Caleb Holt, Ace Bailey, V.J. Edgecombe (1 vote each); two voters declined to answer.
Top-ranked 2024 high school prospect and Duke commit Cooper Flagg was, unsurprisingly, the most popular name amongst voters, having positioned himself as the current frontrunner to go No. 1 in the 2025 draft. Amid his senior season at Montverde Academy, Flagg, a native of Maine, reclassified in August, positioning himself to attend college this fall before making the jump to the NBA. Having recently turned 17, the 6-8 forward will not only be one of the most talented players in his draft class, but also one of the youngest. His birthday is Dec. 21, which will put him on the extremely young end of the spectrum for 2025 draftees.
Flagg has become one of the most dynamic defensive players in high school basketball by generating blocks, steals, and generally wreaking havoc at his size. His instincts and competitiveness have set him apart in a major way at this stage of his career. Flagg's offensive development and what type of usage and role he'll ultimately be suited for is more of an open question at this point, but he's exhibited growth as a jump shooter and has an excellent frame at whichever forward spot he ends up better suited for.
His skill set contributes to winning in a major way, with Montverde currently undefeated heading into this weekend's HoopHall Classic. While there's still time before Flagg has to solidify himself as a prospect, he would likely have a good chance to go No. 1 if he were eligible for the 2024 draft based on the degree of interest he is currently receiving from NBA front offices.
The 2024 NBA draft is still six months away, but there appears to be a prospect that's currently trending as a frontrunner for the No. 1 pick.
ESPN's Jeremy Woo polled 20 NBA executives and scouts since the G League Winter Showcase to get a better handle on the 2024 draft and its major storylines. Team personnel offered their insights on five different topics, on the condition of anonymity. One of those questions was who executives expected to be the top pick in a draft class that appears to lack a generational prospect.
We also asked NBA personnel if they were in favor of a potential two-day draft, whether G League Ignite has been a success, if the 2024 draft class will have as many All-Stars as 2013 and the most intriguing prospect after this year.
1. Who do you expect will be the No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft?
Results (20 ballots)
1. Alex Sarr: 12 votes
2. Not sure/declined to answer: 4 votes
3. Ron Holland: 2 votes
Also receiving votes: Nikola Topic, Isaiah Collier (1 vote each)
The uncertain nature of the 2024 NBA draft will be a major storyline up until June 27. The common refrain around the league has been that there's very little consensus at No. 1, with several voters emphasizing the choice will depend heavily on which team wins the May lottery.
With that in mind, based on the results of the poll, Perth's Alex Sarr appears to be trending as the current frontrunner, following a strong month of December in the National Basketball League in Australia.
The 7-foot-1 French big man is currently sidelined with a hip injury but is presently expected to return before the end of the season. It's worth noting that several of the Sarr voters expressed their lack of confidence in that outcome, but viewed him as the tentative best bet.
"We are in a strange cycle this year where there is no consensus, and it may be more practical for the team at No. 1 to factor in individual need [more heavily than normal] to make the first pick work," one high-ranking Western Conference executive told ESPN. "For example, if that team has [a] need for a big that has utility-based upside, they may be best served taking Sarr."
Sarr's youth, versatility as a mobile defender and perimeter-friendly forward -- coupled with the league-wide demand for tall, skilled frontcourt players -- could give him the broadest degree of appeal amongst the top candidates. Sarr's NBL role has been modest, but he's grown into it nicely and demonstrated he can impact winning, which puts him in a good developmental place for a 7-footer who has yet to turn 19 and is still getting his first real taste of high-level basketball.
Despite his star dimming somewhat over the past couple months, G League Ignite's Ron Holland received two votes, with Serbian Nikola Topic and USC's Isaiah Collier each receiving one. Our highest-ranked prospect not to receive a vote was French wing Zaccharie Risacher, who continues to trend as a top-five selection.
2. What class will end up with more All-Stars: 2013 (three) or 2024?
1. 2013: 13 votes
2. 2024: 5 votes
3. Tie: 2 votes
The 2013 NBA draft is regarded as one of the worst in modern league history, with No. 1 overall pick Anthony Bennett washing out of the league in less than five years, and the draft producing just three All-Stars: Victor Oladipo (No. 2 pick, whose career has been marred by injury), two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo (No. 15 pick), and four-time All-NBA and three-time defensive player of the year Rudy Gobert (No. 27 pick). Other than CJ McCollum, who's had an excellent career after being selected at No. 10, the rest of that class hasn't been particularly notable.
Using 2013 as a barometer, we asked team personnel to venture a guess at how the 2024 class might stack up. Participants were not asked to specify which players could break out at the next level but simply whether they thought 2024 might produce more All-Star level talent.
Responses were mostly pessimistic, although there was some cautious optimism to be found, with one executive citing the overall advances league-wide in player development over the past decade. Another exec expressed a hunch that, much like 2013, a surprise star or two might be lying in wait beyond the obvious top-pick candidates. So, while the attitude around the NBA has largely been that 2024 projects as a down year for draftable talent, it's worth keeping in mind how unexpected and seemingly random player development can be.
3. Are you in favor of the NBA draft being conducted over two days?
1. No: 14 votes
2. Yes: 6 votes
The current expectation around the NBA is the league likely moving to a two-day draft format this year, with the first and second rounds taking place on separate days. That move would help slow down the often hectic pace of the draft, particularly in the second round, where teams are afforded less time on the clock to make decisions (the first round clock lasts five minutes; the second round has traditionally been two).
Voters largely preferred the one-day draft format, expressing some resistance to change, the value of simply getting the draft over within a night, and even some appreciation for the frenetic pace, which moves much faster than the NFL draft, for comparison. Some felt the shorter draft creates a competitive advantage for well-prepared teams, and that more time levels the playing field, but in a way that isn't fully necessary.
Those in favor of the potential change felt it would be valuable for teams to have added time to make transactions around the draft and to strategize around their second-round selections.
"Round 2 goes by so fast and half the time we [can't keep track of] who's getting selected," one Eastern Conference general manager told ESPN. "It would help every team to have that extra day, but more importantly the players getting selected can be spotlighted more, instead of the picks going at lightning speed."
"It's probably a nightmare for agents dealing with their clients who thought they would be selected in the first round," another Eastern Conference executive told ESPN, "but the change would be better for teams and the overall process."
4. Would you consider G League Ignite a success?
1. Yes: 12 votes
2. No: 7 votes
3. Declined to answer: 1 vote
At December's G League Showcase, where Ignite lost twice, we took the temperature of team personnel, asking them to assess the program's progress, which is now in its fourth season. There was a wide range of opinions on the matter and voters aired on the optimistic side, with many expressing the positives (player development and preparation, the creation of an alternate draft pathway, and exposure for evaluation purposes) have outweighed the program's struggles (underscored by this year's roster of eight draft prospects largely not playing to expectations).
Voters seemed largely satisfied with Ignite's player development track record, which has hosted lottery-level players such as Portland's Scoot Henderson, Houston's Jalen Green, Golden State's Jonathan Kuminga and New Orleans' Dyson Daniels, and seen the majority of its prospects drafted (only two Ignite prospects, Daishen Nix and Michael Foster Jr., have gone undrafted). But there was also a wide concession the program has hit tough straits this season, and that the current setup wasn't necessarily being optimized for all the players to succeed. But overall, voters seemed optimistic about the potential of the Ignite concept long-term.
"I wish they would maybe focus on fewer prospects per season, but in general, I think it prepares those kids for the next level well," one Eastern Conference scout told ESPN, "[but] if you have too many, some get left behind a bit."
Concerns included Ignite's ability to recruit moving forward against the growth of name, image and likeness budgets amongst college programs. Another critique was the program's top products all entered the program with significant buzz, and Ignite struggled to help some of the more fringe talents develop the necessary skills to succeed and stick in the NBA. There's a constant challenge to incentivize prospects to play winning basketball, versus competing primarily to enhance their own draft positioning.
"This is the big difference between evals of college players and the Ignite," a Western Conference executive told ESPN. "The players at Connecticut are playing for the national championship, while winning the G League title doesn't have as much value to the players."
5. Who is the most intriguing prospect not currently eligible for the draft?
1. Cooper Flagg: 12 votes
2. A.J. Dybantsa: 3 votes
Also receiving votes: Caleb Holt, Ace Bailey, V.J. Edgecombe (1 vote each); two voters declined to answer.
Top-ranked 2024 high school prospect and Duke commit Cooper Flagg was, unsurprisingly, the most popular name amongst voters, having positioned himself as the current frontrunner to go No. 1 in the 2025 draft. Amid his senior season at Montverde Academy, Flagg, a native of Maine, reclassified in August, positioning himself to attend college this fall before making the jump to the NBA. Having recently turned 17, the 6-8 forward will not only be one of the most talented players in his draft class, but also one of the youngest. His birthday is Dec. 21, which will put him on the extremely young end of the spectrum for 2025 draftees.
Flagg has become one of the most dynamic defensive players in high school basketball by generating blocks, steals, and generally wreaking havoc at his size. His instincts and competitiveness have set him apart in a major way at this stage of his career. Flagg's offensive development and what type of usage and role he'll ultimately be suited for is more of an open question at this point, but he's exhibited growth as a jump shooter and has an excellent frame at whichever forward spot he ends up better suited for.
His skill set contributes to winning in a major way, with Montverde currently undefeated heading into this weekend's HoopHall Classic. While there's still time before Flagg has to solidify himself as a prospect, he would likely have a good chance to go No. 1 if he were eligible for the 2024 draft based on the degree of interest he is currently receiving from NBA front offices.
