2024 NBA draft notebook: Topic returns home, Filipowski's leap and the freshmen who might stay in school
A rare midseason transfer of an elite NBA prospect happened when Nikola Topic, the Serbian point guard ranked No. 6 in the ESPN 2024 draft rankings, was called back this week to the team he grew up with, Red Star, in the EuroLeague. The 18-year-old is a potential top-five pick and spoke with ESPN's Jonathan Givony about his departure from Mega MIS and the similarities between Topic's game and Luka Doncic.
Also in this week's NBA draft notebook, Jeremy Woo and Givony look at why the first-round prospects are older than usual, the freshmen players who could potentially benefit from another year in college and the rise of Duke's Kyle Filipowski.
What does Nikola Topic's departure for Red Star mean for his draft value?
Topic's loan to Mega MIS ended prematurely this week, as he was called back to EuroLeague squad Red Star, the team he grew up with, for the remainder of the season.
"My dream for many years has been to play for Red Star," Topic told ESPN. "I grew up a fan of this club. It will mean everything for me to play in front of 20,000 Red Star fans. I couldn't say no to playing basketball in the EuroLeague.
"It's a huge risk, but I'm ready. I'm confident in myself 100%. My father, my agent Misko Raznatovic and I understand that this move could affect my draft chances if I don't do well. But I'm ready to compete and fight."
Topic replaces Shabazz Napier, who departed for Milan, playing alongside former NBA guards Milos Teodosic and Nemanja Nedovic, as well as Brazilian national team point guard Yago dos Santos.
The decision to return was ultimately Topic's, as he was heavily courted by Red Star in recent weeks, in an attempt to help his hometown club turn around its disappointing (6-10) EuroLeague season, which already saw its previous head coach, Dusko Ivanovic, fired.
Topic will now be coached by Greek coach Giannis Sfairopoulos, who previously helped Washington Wizards forward Deni Avdija become a top-10 NBA draft pick at Maccabi Tel Aviv in 2020.
"We didn't talk about the role I'll play," Topic said. "Whatever he says I'll do. If he says to die on the court, I will die. Whatever coach needs, I'll try my best to do it."
For NBA teams, this will be a fascinating experiment, seeing how an 18-year-old point guard takes on the challenge of going from being the engine of a mid-level Adriatic League squad to competing for opportunities on a deep and experienced team at the highest level of competition on the globe outside the NBA.
No teenager in Adriatic League history has posted the type of numbers (18.6 points, 6.9 assists, 63% true shooting percentage) Topic has this season, doing so on a young but competitive Mega MIS squad that went 6-7 with him at the helm. Topic's combination of size (6-foot-7) and elite ballhandling, passing and finishing ability has helped him emerge as a potential top-five pick in the 2024 NBA draft.
Luka Doncic, for example, averaged 16 points, 4.3 assists in 26 minutes on 61% true shooting in the EuroLeague, a comparison that will be tracked heavily by NBA teams considering some of the stylistic similarities the two share.
"Luka Doncic is a great player," Topic said. "He said that scoring in the EuroLeague is tougher than in the NBA. I don't know if I agree with him, but now I'll be able to see for myself in six months. He is for sure one of the players I look up to. I love the way he's leading the team. But everyone is different. I cannot reach his level. Of course, I like it when people talk about our similarities because he's one of the best players in the world."
Topic goes from Mega MIS, one of the fastest-paced teams in the Adriatic League -- which afforded him unlimited freedom to push in the open court and probe outside of the confines of the offense -- to a Red Star team ranked last in pace, where he'll surely be asked to play a different style.
Topic's 18.5 pick-and-roll possessions used per game ranked No. 1 in the Adriatic League by a wide margin, and he's also top five in the league in isolation and transition possessions. He'll likely be asked to do more with less, playing behind and alongside Teodosic, a legend of European basketball who excels operating in pick and roll.
"Basketball is a game of decisions," Topic said. "It's a mental game. Using angles. The player that makes a faster decision, that person will win. The EuroLeague is a mind game. It's a game of reads."
Two areas where Red Star will likely help Topic's development are defensively and as a perimeter shooter. Playing 34 minutes per game in an outsized role offensively, Topic has had a fair share of lackadaisical moments defensively, especially off the ball, something that will not fly under the defensive-minded Sfairopoulos.
With better talent surrounding him on a team that shoots more 3s per possession than anyone in the EuroLeague, Topic (29% from 3) should get more opportunities to step into catch-and-shoot jumpers than he did at Mega MIS. He'll also be asked to make very different types of reads than in the Adriatic league, where teams aggressively trapped him in ball screens to try to get the ball out of his hands and force others to beat them. He'll likely see more drop and switching coverages in the EuroLeague, more similar to what he'll face in the NBA. He'll enjoy significantly less practice time, also with considerably more travel and games.
With 11 games on the January schedule between the EuroLeague and Adriatic League, Topic will need to hit the ground running for Red Star compared with his previous weekly slate at Mega.
It's not clear what Topic's pre-draft process will look like, as he will likely see his season extend into late May, with the possibility of playing in the Serbian league in June, which might make it challenging for him to conduct private workouts with teams. If Topic excels for Red Star, that likely won't matter that much ultimately, as he could build a strong case for consideration as a top-three pick or even possibly the No. 1 selection depending on how the rest of the class shapes up.
"I'm not thinking of that at all," Topic said on the NBA draft. "That's far away. Five to six months. I'm looking at the next game. I'm thinking about Panathinaikos right now."
Could this be the oldest first round in recent NBA draft history?
When we (and in the case of the 2024 class, much of the NBA scouting community) label a draft as a "bad draft" -- particularly this early in the process -- it's important to understand that label is a commentary on the current state of affairs and the level of confidence it inspires (or doesn't) from scouts. It doesn't mean quality players won't emerge over time: All-Stars CJ McCollum (10th), Giannis Antetokounmpo (15th) and Rudy Gobert (27th) wound up delivering outstanding returns in a similarly panned 2013 draft class.
With that in mind, one notable theme with the 2024 draft has been the emergence of multiple older prospects in the first-round conversation, with NCAA seniors Zach Edey, Kevin McCullar Jr., Oso Ighodaro, Dalton Knecht, Terrence Shannon Jr., Tyler Kolek and Tristan da Silva all ranked between Nos. 15 and 30 entering January. We've seen many freshmen and younger players trend down in the first two months of this season (more on that later), and older college players start to mount strong cases for selection. Using our most recent projected top 30 as a proxy (and adjusting for prospects' age on draft night in June), the 2024 draft class has a chance to produce the oldest first round since 2013.
The average age of our current projected top 30 sits at 20.54 years, above the average age for a first-rounder over the past decade (20.27). The 2009-2013 drafts all skewed older, but they also preceded the one-and-done era, ushered in during the mid-2010s as top programs such as Kentucky and Duke began anchoring their recruiting strategy toward sending elite talent to the NBA. It's worth noting that the average age of our projected lottery prospects is 19.62 -- which, although that number is unlikely to hold, would be the youngest lottery in 15 years. By comparison, the average age of our projected picks in the Nos. 15-30 range is 21.34, the oldest since 2010.
We are six months from the draft, but the lack of certainty surrounding many of the draft's younger prospects (a few of whom are playing well) might drive NBA teams toward prioritizing older, NBA-ready talent.
The 2023 draft class has produced a handful of immediate-impact players: We've seen older rookies, such as Jordan Hawkins (No. 14), Jaime Jaquez Jr. (No. 1
, Marcus Sasser (No. 25), Andre Jackson Jr., (No. 36), Toumani Camara (No. 52) and Trayce-Jackson Davis (No. 57), provide immediate return on investment for their teams. From the 2022 draft, Keegan Murray (No. 4), Jalen Williams (No. 12), Tari Eason (No. 17) and Christian Braun (No. 21) have made impacts as older first-round picks. Other recent success stories include New Orleans Pelicans forward Herb Jones and Memphis Grizzlies guard Desmond Bane, all helping to dispel the stigma that older prospects possess less upside.
There are plenty of misses for every one of these hits. That's the nature of drafting, and it's certainly a lot more logical to see a 22- or 23-year-old senior dominate at the college level. Some cautious optimism is warranted for players such as McCullar and Shannon, who have been on the fringes of the draft conversation for multiple years, but are just now breaking out in earnest in their fifth college seasons. Teams will be parsing all these cases individually.
Recent history, the uncertainty around the 2024 class and the lack of overwhelming first-round talent at least make it more difficult to use a player's age against him on draft night.
-- Woo
Who are the freshmen trending toward being multiyear players?
The flip side of a projected older first-round crop is the fact that multiple potential one-and-done prospects entering the year are trending toward being multiyear players -- assuming they aren't ready to settle for going deep in the second round or undrafted.
That's hardly the insult it used to be thanks to NIL deals, as many players will make significantly more money in college as sophomores than they would on two-way contracts as G League projects in the NBA.
Elmarko Jackson (Kansas), Xavier Booker (Michigan State), Aday Mara (UCLA), Jared McCain (Duke), Berke Buyuktuncel (UCLA), Caleb Foster (Duke), Mackenzie Mgbako (Indiana), Kwame Evans Jr. (Oregon) and Omaha Biliew (Iowa State) all entered the season considered possible first-rounders but have trended down or out of our projections after varying slow starts.
Kentucky's trio of D.J. Wagner, Justin Edwards and Aaron Bradshaw aren't far behind that group and will need to step up in SEC play.
Some of these freshmen will rebound and play better throughout the year -- the way Duke's Dereck Lively II did last year, for example, but for others, a big offseason and breakout sophomore campaign -- à la Ryan Dunn (Virginia), Kel'el Ware (Indiana), Trevon Brazile (Arkansas) or Kyle Filipowski (Duke) -- could be the best move for their NBA longevity.
-- Givony
Is Duke sophomore Kyle Filipowski making a leap?
In a year in which few top prospects are enjoying consistent on-court success, it's worth noting that Duke's Filipowski has been playing well recently, turning in a dominant offensive showing against Hofstra and perhaps the most complete performance of his college career in a win over Baylor at Madison Square Garden last week. The Filipowski elevator pitch will always center around the diversity of his offensive skill set at his size (7-foot), as he grades out well in the shooting, passing and feel departments. Those contributions are why he's projected in the lottery on our draft board. But if he continues to turn in all-around showings and flash positive things on the defensive end, he has an opportunity to raise the level of intrigue significantly.
In recent weeks, Duke has simplified Filipowski's role in its defensive scheme, cutting back on the amount of aggressive trapping and hedging asked of him guarding screens -- a shift that was quite successful against Baylor. Filipowski moved his feet effectively in drop coverage, used his size effectively and generally limited his mistakes in a performance NBA scouts will hope is the start of a greater trend. He helped Duke to an important win against a talented, physical frontline that included potential first-round pick Yves Missi getting the better of him on a few occasions. By NBA standards, Filipowski is an average athlete hindered by his negative wingspan (he measured at 6-foot-11½ in shoes with a wingspan just under 6-10 at last year's Nike Hoop Summit). He could have trouble as a big man often playing in physical scrambles under the basket. Still, considering the value he might add on offense, proving he can offer some degree of resistance on the glass and in the paint can go a long way.
Filipowski's offensive profile makes him pretty interesting in the context of this draft class, as he can play out of a variety of spots on the floor already, most often working as a trail big and screener who can playmake and space from the middle of the floor. While not a lights-out shooter from 3, he has always been comfortable shooting jumpers and projects to stretch the floor in at least an average capacity for a 7-footer. This would afford him even more utility as someone who can effectively float to the corners and present a threat to defenses. He passes well enough to play out of the short roll and find shooters when defenses send pressure. Filipowski's lack of vertical pop will limit his ability to punish opponents inside the paint at the NBA level, and his negative length makes him more effective facing up and playing in space than trying to score on the interior. The bottom line is there's more to his game than your typical stretch big, and the pathway to becoming an offensive positive seems attainable.
Continuing to show a good level of competitive mettle and willingness to mix things up in the paint should further enhance Filipowski's case early in the draft. That area of his game will likely never be a strength, but the strides he has shown this season were unexpected coming into the year. He won't be a fit for every team, as his lack of foot speed and rebounding struggles in high traffic can inhibit a lineup's capability to play uptempo and get out on the break. But Filipowski might be the most skilled 7-footer in this draft class, which could pay dividends on a team with a clear vision for how to optimize his strengths.
-- Woo
Does BYU have a draft sleeper in Jaxson Robinson?
Every NBA team is starved for wing shooting, as we saw in last year's draft when players such as Julian Strawther, Ben Sheppard, Seth Lundy and Hunter Tyson all rocketed up the draft boards throughout June.
Teams are increasingly taking notice of BYU's Robinson, who is currently leading Division I by a wide margin in 3-pointers made per 40 minutes while shooting 43% from beyond the arc. At 6-7 with a 7-1 wingspan, he has ideal dimensions and is also young for his class -- recently turning 21 -- despite being in his fourth season of college basketball.
Robinson is also dynamic with the way he gets into his jumper -- being capable of running off screens, pulling up versus unders and showing deep range from well beyond the NBA 3-point line.
While still having plenty of room to improve with his passing and decision-making, Robinson also shows impressive glimpses of scoring prowess attacking closeouts, in transition and operating out of the pick-and-roll with smooth footwork and pace.
Robinson's defense -- likely the biggest reason he comes off the bench and plays just 22 minutes per game -- will be scrutinized closely in Big 12 play. He lacks intensity and physicality in a major way, often looking a step behind the action instinctually and struggling to add value off the ball.
A 33% 3-point shooter in his first three seasons in college, we'll see if Robinson's scorching shooting is sustainable for BYU -- the No. 4 team in the country, per KenPom. BYU's schedule toughens considerably in January, which should tell us more about Robinson's candidacy as a draft prospect.
Some other wing shooters we'll be monitoring as conference play starts next week: Payton Sandfort (Iowa), Baylor Scheierman (Creighton), Kyshawn George (Miami), Jalen Bridges (Baylor) and Harrison Ingram (North Carolina).
-- Givony