HOU$TON
formerly convertibleburt
- Apr 14, 2016
- 13,523
- 26,417
2025 NBA Draft Thread
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by addict4sneakers,
- Start date
- Sep 18, 2003
- 61,927
- 134,315
- Sep 18, 2003
- 61,927
- 134,315
bang
- Sep 5, 2010
- 93,217
- 129,820
- Sep 18, 2003
- 61,927
- 134,315
The league put dink in a tough spot. He’s challenging the ruling. Would be cool for them to do right by him. Should be a first round pick easily
- Mar 31, 2011
- 73,083
- 117,412
That’s a sick name.
- Sep 5, 2010
- 93,217
- 129,820
Zach Edey, Donovan Clingan beg question: Does NBA have room for behemoth centers?
As I was talking to former Memphis Grizzlies players at Marc Gasol’s jersey retirement this weekend, the topic that inevitably came up was just how much the NBA had changed in a dozen years or so. The plodding, post-heavy “Grit N Grind” style of those Memphis teams is scarcely even an option in today’s league … not just because of the 3-point eruption, but because of the demands that revolution has made on the league’s biggest players on the defensive end.
While the object of the game remains the same and the rules have changed less than you think, the tactics and strategy of how to get there have undergone a pretty violent shift. Call it pace-and-space or seven seconds or less or whatever; spreading the floor and shooting 3s has changed the way teams approach the game.
In particular, it has fundamentally changed the center position. For instance, consider the 2006-07 season. Then, a 7-foot-6 Yao Ming averaged 25 points a game and made Second Team All-NBA, with his Houston Rockets ranking sixth in defensive efficiency. The tactical hack to beat him in the playoffs that year was to make him defend free-throw line jumpers by Carlos Boozer.
Yao wasn’t alone; a lot of slow, plodding giants roamed the NBA landscape then, from Cleveland’s 7-3 Zydrunas Ilgauskas to Boston’s 280-pound one-hand shot-faking Al Jefferson to New York’s massive Eddy Curry (who played 2,849 minutes that year!) to the Los Angeles Lakers’ 7-foot, 270-pound teenage sensation Andrew Bynum.
Since then, the league’s persistent creep to the perimeter, and the resultant requirement that all five players be able to guard the perimeter, has steadily eroded the ranks of the behemoth centers. Yes, we still have a lot of tall players, like 7-4 Victor Wembanyama and 7-3 Kristaps Porziņģis, but these guys play more like supersized guards than the human-blocking sleds of yore.
To the extent heavyweights remain, they’ve had to change to stay ahead of the curve. Today, it’s a tiny group that mostly includes elite skill guys. There’s a center who plays more like a point guard (or a warlock) in Nikola Jokić, a jump-shooting, foul-drawing scoring machine in Joel Embiid, and a 3-point-shooting, drop-coverage savant in Brook Lopez … and almost nobody else. Jusuf Nurkić, Boban Marjanović, Andre Drummond and (depending on the day) Zion Williamson are the only other players still in the league whose bodies look like they belong in a 2007 game.
In their stead have been a stream of skinny, tall centers like Wemby, the Zinger and Chet Holmgren; smaller, fast-and-bouncy centers like 6-9 Bam Adebayo and Atlanta’s 6-10 Clint Capela and 6-8 Onyeka Okongwu; and up-gauged former power forwards like Al Horford. Even the traditional 7-footers — your Deandre Aytons, Jarrett Allens, Cody Zellers and Ivica Zubacs — have mostly topped out in the 240-250 pound range. It’s just a much harder game for heavier players, unless they match it with outlier skill and feel the way Jokić, Embiid and Lopez have managed.
This takes us to this year’s NBA Draft, and the two big man sensations competing in the men’s NCAA Tournament championship on Monday night. That duo, Purdue’s Zach Edey and Connecticut’s Donovan Clingan, are two of the most dominant players in recent college annals.
You can see this any number of ways, including, uh, watching the games, but an easy shorthand to see their dominance is the fact that they are first and second in college basketball in PER by miles and miles, with Edey’s unfathomable 39.7 topping the NCAA and Clingan’s 35.7 mark, ranking second. Those are the two highest marks by any NCAA player since Williamson’s 40.8 in 2018-19 at Duke … with the exception of Edey’s 40.2 in 2022-23.
The other standout stat for these two gentlemen is their sheer size. They aren’t just tall; they’re big, with solid frames and thick calves. Edey is 7-4 and 300 pounds; Clingan is 7-2, 280.
And that takes us to the crux of the issue, because we’ve seen this movie before with other dinosaur bigs like Connecticut’s Adama Sanogo and Iowa’s Luka Garza, who were able to dominate college basketball while rarely leaving the paint on defense. That’s not a thing at the NBA level, where the game forces them to cover the perimeter. (Somewhat off topic: Giant bigs are also able to remain in the paint in international rules, which is why Edey is an underutilized weapon for Team Canada and why Clingan’s Italian ancestry is a topic of interest overseas.)
The one thing you can see in the tape for Edey and Clingan is that, if you are going to allow them to just hang out in the paint on defense, you might as well not bother showing up at all. It’s just too easy for them.
Here’s one clip from UConn’s fearsome 30-0 run against Illinois in the Elite Eight. As long as Clingan is in the paint, he is basically playing Nerf hoops against his little brother.
Unbelievably, the Illini shot 0 of 19 on attempts contested by Clingan in that game. While they did make periodic efforts to stretch him out to the 3-point line, they didn’t have the personnel to do it.
A more sincere effort was made by Alabama on Saturday in the Final Four, as the Crimson Tide attacked him with a mobile, 6-10 Grant Nelson. Nelson scored 19 points and was even able to uncork a “dunk” over Clingan that was more of a throw-in but still impressive. However, the more relatable play for the NBA level was probably this one a minute later, where he attacked Clingan off the dribble in space and used some wiggle and a Euro step to get to the rim cleanly.
Nonetheless, Clingan is the more nimble and athletic of the two, showing more ability to step out on the perimeter, run the floor and track smaller players off the dribble. That particularly stood out in his epic eight-block tournament performance against Northwestern, where he was unfazed having to switch onto guards. He’ll have to do the same against faster, more skilled NBA players working with more space and (mostly) better schemes, but here’s an example of his work in the Illinois game. Clingan has his feet at the 3-point line when Terrance Shannon begins his move, stays with Shannon’s inside-out move and slides his feet to meet him at the rim before denying the shot.
Meanwhile, Edey is of an even more extreme archetype — even bigger, even slower, even more dependent on being in the right system with a drop coverage on defense and a post-friendly offense.
That said, the Yao parallels here are even stronger. Like Yao, Edey has a high release and is a very good short-range shooter, a combination that makes his post-ups an automatic bucket at the college level. He could probably extend his range too; he shoots 70.6 percent from the free-throw line for his career and has clean mechanics, although he could get more arc on it. Additionally, as opponents have become brazen about doubling him, he’s become better at reading what’s happening and getting the ball to the right spot.
Thus, offense isn’t the thing keeping scouts up at night. Yes, he’ll have to make some adjustments to play in more pick-and-rolls and fewer structured post-ups. Check out this amazing stat: In just 37 college games, he has more post-ups than any player in the NBA this year.
However, his size alone makes him an obvious lob threat, and his coordination, strength and skill on top of that makes him an elite finisher despite lacking electric hops.
Defensively? That is the entire battle. This isn’t necessarily a binary yes-no thing either. There are levels to this.
Edey’s statistical profile certainly has some red flags in it, starting with the fact that he only had 11 steals the entire season, or about 0.5 per 100 possessions. While 7-4 centers aren’t expected to be thieving ball hawks, that’s still a staggeringly low rate even for a center, in a category that has historically had indicator value for the next level.
Eden has also used his size to protect the rim much differently than Clingan, opting for an extreme low risk strategy that prioritizes avoiding foul trouble. Edey has more blocks than fouls this season, just like Clingan; the difference is that Clingan is nearly twice as likely to do either, per possession. The stats will show an unusually low block rate for his size (4.0 per 100), but if Edey isn’t an indispensable star at the next level, it also means he could likely ramp that up quite a bit.
Every game Edey plays in will result in the opponent trying to isolate him in space and use superior speed against his size. (He’ll also be vulnerable in transition.) However, that makes him no different from most centers who take the floor in an NBA game on any given night.
Thus, we get back to levels of vulnerability. It’s one thing to say mobility issues on the defensive end might prevent Edey from becoming a star at the next level, somebody who might be worth a top-five pick. It’s quite another, however, to say the issue would be so egregious that it would render him unplayable, especially given his offensive output.
There are a great many bigs who operate somewhere between those extremes, especially in the regular season, when most teams play drop coverage fairly regularly. Many of those bigs get run off the court at some point in the postseason; if Edey and Clingan are no different from them, that limits the value proposition on taking one with a high lottery pick, perhaps … but it doesn’t make them undraftable. There’s a certain point in the draft where fretting over Edey being played off the court in a playoff series is silliness compared to the upside of having a potential 20-point scorer to plug into the frontcourt.
Of course, we can’t make this too reductive either. In the case of both Clingan and Edey, it isn’t just their size and mobility that impact their pro hopes. Clingan’s medical report will be important given that he’s missed time with multiple foot injuries, for instance. And in Edey’s case, his joining the league at age 22 this fall is a bit of a red flag given that essentially every good center of recent ilk has been picked by age 20.
But in the big picture, the reason to wonder gets back to that Grit N Grind discussion up top. Edey and Clingan are both huge and talented, to be clear, and that gives them a great chance. However, both players are about to face a radical change in conditions, from a college basketball world that is hugely favorable to their player archetype to an NBA environment that couldn’t hardly be more hostile to it. Right now they have a stiff breeze at their backs, but they’re about to tack into the wind.
In turn, how well they fit into the NBA at their size provides a good gauge of exactly how unfavorable the current NBA is to huge, lumbering centers. Because after obliterating the NCAA for the past two seasons, if they can’t cut it at this size, who else possibly could?
As I was talking to former Memphis Grizzlies players at Marc Gasol’s jersey retirement this weekend, the topic that inevitably came up was just how much the NBA had changed in a dozen years or so. The plodding, post-heavy “Grit N Grind” style of those Memphis teams is scarcely even an option in today’s league … not just because of the 3-point eruption, but because of the demands that revolution has made on the league’s biggest players on the defensive end.
While the object of the game remains the same and the rules have changed less than you think, the tactics and strategy of how to get there have undergone a pretty violent shift. Call it pace-and-space or seven seconds or less or whatever; spreading the floor and shooting 3s has changed the way teams approach the game.
In particular, it has fundamentally changed the center position. For instance, consider the 2006-07 season. Then, a 7-foot-6 Yao Ming averaged 25 points a game and made Second Team All-NBA, with his Houston Rockets ranking sixth in defensive efficiency. The tactical hack to beat him in the playoffs that year was to make him defend free-throw line jumpers by Carlos Boozer.
Yao wasn’t alone; a lot of slow, plodding giants roamed the NBA landscape then, from Cleveland’s 7-3 Zydrunas Ilgauskas to Boston’s 280-pound one-hand shot-faking Al Jefferson to New York’s massive Eddy Curry (who played 2,849 minutes that year!) to the Los Angeles Lakers’ 7-foot, 270-pound teenage sensation Andrew Bynum.
Since then, the league’s persistent creep to the perimeter, and the resultant requirement that all five players be able to guard the perimeter, has steadily eroded the ranks of the behemoth centers. Yes, we still have a lot of tall players, like 7-4 Victor Wembanyama and 7-3 Kristaps Porziņģis, but these guys play more like supersized guards than the human-blocking sleds of yore.
To the extent heavyweights remain, they’ve had to change to stay ahead of the curve. Today, it’s a tiny group that mostly includes elite skill guys. There’s a center who plays more like a point guard (or a warlock) in Nikola Jokić, a jump-shooting, foul-drawing scoring machine in Joel Embiid, and a 3-point-shooting, drop-coverage savant in Brook Lopez … and almost nobody else. Jusuf Nurkić, Boban Marjanović, Andre Drummond and (depending on the day) Zion Williamson are the only other players still in the league whose bodies look like they belong in a 2007 game.
In their stead have been a stream of skinny, tall centers like Wemby, the Zinger and Chet Holmgren; smaller, fast-and-bouncy centers like 6-9 Bam Adebayo and Atlanta’s 6-10 Clint Capela and 6-8 Onyeka Okongwu; and up-gauged former power forwards like Al Horford. Even the traditional 7-footers — your Deandre Aytons, Jarrett Allens, Cody Zellers and Ivica Zubacs — have mostly topped out in the 240-250 pound range. It’s just a much harder game for heavier players, unless they match it with outlier skill and feel the way Jokić, Embiid and Lopez have managed.
This takes us to this year’s NBA Draft, and the two big man sensations competing in the men’s NCAA Tournament championship on Monday night. That duo, Purdue’s Zach Edey and Connecticut’s Donovan Clingan, are two of the most dominant players in recent college annals.
You can see this any number of ways, including, uh, watching the games, but an easy shorthand to see their dominance is the fact that they are first and second in college basketball in PER by miles and miles, with Edey’s unfathomable 39.7 topping the NCAA and Clingan’s 35.7 mark, ranking second. Those are the two highest marks by any NCAA player since Williamson’s 40.8 in 2018-19 at Duke … with the exception of Edey’s 40.2 in 2022-23.
The other standout stat for these two gentlemen is their sheer size. They aren’t just tall; they’re big, with solid frames and thick calves. Edey is 7-4 and 300 pounds; Clingan is 7-2, 280.
And that takes us to the crux of the issue, because we’ve seen this movie before with other dinosaur bigs like Connecticut’s Adama Sanogo and Iowa’s Luka Garza, who were able to dominate college basketball while rarely leaving the paint on defense. That’s not a thing at the NBA level, where the game forces them to cover the perimeter. (Somewhat off topic: Giant bigs are also able to remain in the paint in international rules, which is why Edey is an underutilized weapon for Team Canada and why Clingan’s Italian ancestry is a topic of interest overseas.)
The one thing you can see in the tape for Edey and Clingan is that, if you are going to allow them to just hang out in the paint on defense, you might as well not bother showing up at all. It’s just too easy for them.
Here’s one clip from UConn’s fearsome 30-0 run against Illinois in the Elite Eight. As long as Clingan is in the paint, he is basically playing Nerf hoops against his little brother.
Unbelievably, the Illini shot 0 of 19 on attempts contested by Clingan in that game. While they did make periodic efforts to stretch him out to the 3-point line, they didn’t have the personnel to do it.
A more sincere effort was made by Alabama on Saturday in the Final Four, as the Crimson Tide attacked him with a mobile, 6-10 Grant Nelson. Nelson scored 19 points and was even able to uncork a “dunk” over Clingan that was more of a throw-in but still impressive. However, the more relatable play for the NBA level was probably this one a minute later, where he attacked Clingan off the dribble in space and used some wiggle and a Euro step to get to the rim cleanly.
Nonetheless, Clingan is the more nimble and athletic of the two, showing more ability to step out on the perimeter, run the floor and track smaller players off the dribble. That particularly stood out in his epic eight-block tournament performance against Northwestern, where he was unfazed having to switch onto guards. He’ll have to do the same against faster, more skilled NBA players working with more space and (mostly) better schemes, but here’s an example of his work in the Illinois game. Clingan has his feet at the 3-point line when Terrance Shannon begins his move, stays with Shannon’s inside-out move and slides his feet to meet him at the rim before denying the shot.
Meanwhile, Edey is of an even more extreme archetype — even bigger, even slower, even more dependent on being in the right system with a drop coverage on defense and a post-friendly offense.
That said, the Yao parallels here are even stronger. Like Yao, Edey has a high release and is a very good short-range shooter, a combination that makes his post-ups an automatic bucket at the college level. He could probably extend his range too; he shoots 70.6 percent from the free-throw line for his career and has clean mechanics, although he could get more arc on it. Additionally, as opponents have become brazen about doubling him, he’s become better at reading what’s happening and getting the ball to the right spot.
Thus, offense isn’t the thing keeping scouts up at night. Yes, he’ll have to make some adjustments to play in more pick-and-rolls and fewer structured post-ups. Check out this amazing stat: In just 37 college games, he has more post-ups than any player in the NBA this year.
However, his size alone makes him an obvious lob threat, and his coordination, strength and skill on top of that makes him an elite finisher despite lacking electric hops.
Defensively? That is the entire battle. This isn’t necessarily a binary yes-no thing either. There are levels to this.
Edey’s statistical profile certainly has some red flags in it, starting with the fact that he only had 11 steals the entire season, or about 0.5 per 100 possessions. While 7-4 centers aren’t expected to be thieving ball hawks, that’s still a staggeringly low rate even for a center, in a category that has historically had indicator value for the next level.
Eden has also used his size to protect the rim much differently than Clingan, opting for an extreme low risk strategy that prioritizes avoiding foul trouble. Edey has more blocks than fouls this season, just like Clingan; the difference is that Clingan is nearly twice as likely to do either, per possession. The stats will show an unusually low block rate for his size (4.0 per 100), but if Edey isn’t an indispensable star at the next level, it also means he could likely ramp that up quite a bit.
Every game Edey plays in will result in the opponent trying to isolate him in space and use superior speed against his size. (He’ll also be vulnerable in transition.) However, that makes him no different from most centers who take the floor in an NBA game on any given night.
Thus, we get back to levels of vulnerability. It’s one thing to say mobility issues on the defensive end might prevent Edey from becoming a star at the next level, somebody who might be worth a top-five pick. It’s quite another, however, to say the issue would be so egregious that it would render him unplayable, especially given his offensive output.
There are a great many bigs who operate somewhere between those extremes, especially in the regular season, when most teams play drop coverage fairly regularly. Many of those bigs get run off the court at some point in the postseason; if Edey and Clingan are no different from them, that limits the value proposition on taking one with a high lottery pick, perhaps … but it doesn’t make them undraftable. There’s a certain point in the draft where fretting over Edey being played off the court in a playoff series is silliness compared to the upside of having a potential 20-point scorer to plug into the frontcourt.
Of course, we can’t make this too reductive either. In the case of both Clingan and Edey, it isn’t just their size and mobility that impact their pro hopes. Clingan’s medical report will be important given that he’s missed time with multiple foot injuries, for instance. And in Edey’s case, his joining the league at age 22 this fall is a bit of a red flag given that essentially every good center of recent ilk has been picked by age 20.
But in the big picture, the reason to wonder gets back to that Grit N Grind discussion up top. Edey and Clingan are both huge and talented, to be clear, and that gives them a great chance. However, both players are about to face a radical change in conditions, from a college basketball world that is hugely favorable to their player archetype to an NBA environment that couldn’t hardly be more hostile to it. Right now they have a stiff breeze at their backs, but they’re about to tack into the wind.
In turn, how well they fit into the NBA at their size provides a good gauge of exactly how unfavorable the current NBA is to huge, lumbering centers. Because after obliterating the NCAA for the past two seasons, if they can’t cut it at this size, who else possibly could?
- Nov 5, 2012
- 80,694
- 55,639
Bruv was making plays last year before he got hurt- I haven’t watched any of him at all this year
HOU$TON
formerly convertibleburt
- Apr 14, 2016
- 13,523
- 26,417
- Nov 5, 2012
- 80,694
- 55,639
Now the 33rd new number one prospect of the class
- Mar 22, 2003
- 28,993
- 17,663
Saw Brazile a bunch, he hasn’t improved at all. Had one solid game vs Duke - rest were stinkers
- Mar 16, 2010
- 147,622
- 180,643
Gonna be a lot of upset folks come draft night at this rate...
- Nov 5, 2012
- 80,694
- 55,639
Shams really is lebron pr
HOU$TON
formerly convertibleburt
- Apr 14, 2016
- 13,523
- 26,417
- Mar 31, 2011
- 73,083
- 117,412
Castle giving JDub vibes.
Looks really comfortable out there doing pretty much everything, even though he isn’t a great shooter. Athletic. Dawg on defense. Gonna be a 10+ year starter.
Don’t know what argument any of the other NCAA guys have over him in this draft.
Looks really comfortable out there doing pretty much everything, even though he isn’t a great shooter. Athletic. Dawg on defense. Gonna be a 10+ year starter.
Don’t know what argument any of the other NCAA guys have over him in this draft.
- Sep 5, 2010
- 93,217
- 129,820
- Sep 5, 2010
- 93,217
- 129,820
- Sep 5, 2010
- 93,217
- 129,820
- Sep 5, 2010
- 93,217
- 129,820
- Sep 5, 2010
- 93,217
- 129,820
- Jul 20, 2009
- 64,968
- 196,213
March Madness over
Now Mock Madness is in full swing
Now Mock Madness is in full swing
- Sep 5, 2010
- 93,217
- 129,820
NBA draft 2024: Projecting 30 of the best prospects
Atypically in the one-and-done men's college basketball era, Monday's national championship game featured two of the top four prospects in my stats-based projections squaring off against each other. Purdue center Zach Edey, the consensus national player of the year, and UConn counterpart Donovan Clingan are among the standouts in what's been panned as a weak 2024 NBA draft class.
Although Edey had a dominant game (37 points, 10 rebounds), Clingan's ability to defend him one-on-one enabled the Huskies to stay home on Edey's teammates and limit 3-point attempts as the Huskies won their second title in a row.
Clingan and Edey are among four prospects with a consensus projection of 3.0 wins above replacement player (WARP) or better per season at the NBA level. Only the acclaimed 2014 draft (five) featured more such prospects dating back to 2012.
This year's top players are atypical in terms of establishing themselves late in the process, however. Edey was projected in the second round of the preseason mock draft from ESPN's Jonathan Givony, while Kentucky guard Reed Sheppard was nowhere to be found before his freshman season in Lexington.
My projections translate performance in NCAA Division I and other levels to an NBA equivalent then adjust for age and position to project value over a player's next five seasons. Lastly, I add in ESPN's top 100 prospect rankings for the best consensus projection.
For more on how my projections work and past examples, see here.
Now, let's get to the projections for players currently in the top 100.
1. Donovan Clingan
UConn
C
Top 100: No. 3
Stats: No. 3
Consensus: 3.7 WARP
Clingan had the top stats-based projection heading into last year's NCAA tournament while coming off the bench on the national championship winner behind NBA-bound Adama Sanogo. Clingan's strong productivity in that role has translated into dominance as a sophomore starter, particularly during the NCAA tournament run.
The 7-foot-2 Clingan would be just the third draft pick in my database projected to block at least 6% of opponent 2-point attempts and secure at least 20% of available defensive rebounds, joining Mo Bamba and Victor Wembanyama. Because he's moved all the way up to third in the top 100, Clingan now has the top overall projection despite dropping to third in the stats-only version.
2. Reed Sheppard
Kentucky
G
Top 100: No. 7
Stats: No. 1
Consensus: 3.7 WARP
Although Sheppard's 52% 3-point shooting (on a robust sample of 144 attempts) is regressed down to a projected 39% as an NBA rookie, that's still the best projection for any player since Doug McDermott -- who had multiple years of college data -- in 2014. Sheppard's projected 2.5 steals per 100 plays, second among players in this year's top 100, is almost as impressive as his shooting. Thanks largely to those key skills, Sheppard has the best stats-only projection in this year's draft.
3. Alex Sarr
Perth
C
Top 100: No. 2
Stats: No. 4
Consensus: 3.6 WARP
Sarr's stats-only projection is slightly better than the median No. 1 pick in the past 12 drafts. Playing in the Australian NBL at 18 years old, Sarr averaged 20.3 points, 9.2 rebounds and 2.8 blocks per 36 minutes this season. Despite shooting just 30% on 3s, Sarr's 71% accuracy at the line suggests he has the potential to develop into a stretch 5 in time.
4. Zach Edey
Purdue
C
Top 100: No. 14
Stats: No. 2
Consensus: 3.1 WARP
Nobody doubts that Edey has been the best player in college basketball. The question is how his skills will translate to the NBA at 7-4. One interesting data point: No college player with a usage projection as high as Edey's has been drafted in the past 12 years. The two players ahead of him, Marquette guard Markus Howard and former Purdue teammate Trevion Williams, played go-to roles that didn't carry over in the NBA. (Williams has yet to play in the league, while Howard did on a two-way contract.) Nonetheless, Edey's dominance has earned him a spot in the first round after he chose to return for his fourth season at Purdue. And, after moving up in the top 100, Edey is the fourth and final player in the top tier of my projections.
5. Zaccharie Risacher
Bourg
SF
Top 100: No. 1
Stats: No. 81
Consensus: 2.2 WARP
On the plus side, Risacher -- currently atop ESPN's draft rankings -- averaged 13.1 PPG in just 24 minutes per game during EuroCup play at 18 years old (he turned 19 on Monday), making 57% of his 2s and 56% of his 3s. That performance was out of line with Risacher's play in the French LNB Pro A, however, as he shot just 51% on 2s and 34% on 3s. And a 69% career free throw shooting percentage across all first-division competition suggests Risacher's 3-point hot streak in EuroCup play might not be legitimate.
6. Ja'Kobe Walter
Baylor
SG
Top 100: No. 12
Stats: No. 8
Consensus: 2.2 WARP
Walter's 3-point shooting will be a make-or-break skill. Nearly 60% of his shot attempts came from 3 at Baylor, and Walter hit them at a middling 34% clip. His 79% accuracy at the free throw line is more encouraging, and Walter could be more selective at the NBA level after launching 6.3 per game this season. Because the rest of Walter's game is somewhat limited, including 42% shooting from 2, he'll need to become a dangerous 3-point threat to play up to this projection.
7. Rob Dillingham
Kentucky
G
Top 100: No. 4
Stats: No. 29
Consensus: 2.2 WARP
Playing primarily alongside Sheppard off the bench for Kentucky, Dillingham had a 30% usage rate that was second-highest among Division I freshmen behind Notre Dame's Markus Burton according to Sports-Reference.com. Given that heavy load, Dillingham was highly efficient, ranking in the top 10 in true shooting percentage (.595) among freshmen with a 30% usage or higher since 2009-10. Dillingham shot 44% on 3s, not far behind Sheppard's mark.
8. Johnny Furphy
Kansas
SF
Top 100: No. 28
Stats: No. 4
Consensus: 2.0 WARP
Recruited from Australia, Furphy emerged as a starter over the second half of the season. For a freshman wing, Furphy's .609 true shooting percentage was terrific, and more the product of sustainably high 2-point accuracy (64%) than a 3-point hot streak. Furphy's form suggests he could improve on his 35% 3-point shooting as well. Add in good size (a listed 6-9) and Furphy could grow into a multi-positional threat.
9. Nikola Topic
Red Star
PG
Top 100: No. 5
Stats: No. 43
Consensus: 1.9 WARP
The top-rated prospect whose team is still in action, Topic could improve his projection if he can return from a knee injury suffered in early January just after joining EuroLeague side Red Star. Topic shot well inside the arc in his first extended action in the Adriatic Basketball Association while on loan to Mega MIS, making 67% of his 2s, but his stats-only projection is held back by poor 3-point shooting and low rates of steals and blocks.
10. Stephon Castle
UConn
G
Top 100: No. 9
Stats: No. 27
Consensus: 1.8 WARP
The top freshman on the national champion UConn, Castle played an important role throughout the NCAA tournament with his activity on both ends. From a statistical standpoint, Castle's 27% 3-point shooting is something of a concern, but he was solid at the free throw line (75.5%) and shot well enough from 2 (54%) to be reasonably efficient anyway.
11. Isaiah Collier
USC
PG
Top 100: No. 11
Stats: No. 26
Consensus: 1.7 WARP
Collier benefits from the inclusion of stats from the Nike EYBL AAU competitions. Based solely on his EYBL performance, Collier would rank fifth, helping explain why he entered the season projected as a top-five pick. Collier didn't perform at the same level as a freshman at USC and struggled with his turnovers -- his NCAA performance still makes up the bulk of his projection because he played just 221 minutes in EYBL games.
12. Jared McCain
Duke
G
Top 100: No. 19
Stats: No. 13
Consensus: 1.7 WARP
Another strong shooting freshman, McCain knocked down 41% of his 3-point attempts with an even better free throw percentage (88.5%) than Sheppard. At 6-3, McCain will have to demonstrate more playmaking ability than we saw alongside a pair of other ballhandling guards (Tyrese Proctor and Jeremy Roach) at Duke. Still, his fit looks strong alongside a bigger lead ball handler who can allow McCain to defend point guards.
13. Kyshawn George
Miami
G/F
Top 100: No. 24
Stats: No. 10
Consensus: 1.6 WARP
A native of Switzerland who played in France before coming to the U.S. for college, George shot 41% on 3s and used his size (listed 6-
to accumulate steals and blocks at good rates. He'll have to improve his finishing inside the arc after shooting just 47% on 2s and is already 20, more typical for a sophomore than a freshman.
14. Kyle Filipowski
Duke
F/C
Top 100: No. 16
Stats: No. 25
Consensus: 1.5 WARP
After choosing to return for his sophomore season at Duke, Filipowski made solid strides across the board, improving his shooting percentages inside and beyond the arc and doubling his block rate on the defensive end. Filipowski could stand to develop his finishing, having shot just 59% within five feet, according to Synergy Sports tracking.
15. Tidjane Salaun
Cholet
SF
Top 100: No. 15
Stats: No. 36
Consensus: 1.4 WARP
Having played just 17 minutes total at the Pro A level last season, Salaun has averaged 22 MPG at 18 years old. He's shown 3-point range, making more than one per game at a 35% clip, but 39% accuracy inside the arc is a concern.
16. Payton Sandfort
Iowa
SF
Top 100: No. 35
Stats: No. 12
Consensus: 1.4 WARP
The latest in a line of NBA prospects from Iowa -- which has had a forward drafted in each of the last three years, first Joe Wieskamp and more recently twins Keegan and Kris Murray -- Sandfort stepped into a featured role with both Murrays now in the NBA. As a full-time starter, he shot a career-high 38% on 3s. A career 90% accuracy at the foul line suggests room for more growth as a shooter, which may be necessary to offset low rates of steals and blocks.
17. Matas Buzelis
G League Ignite
F
Top 100: No. 6
Stats: No. 86
Consensus: 1.4 WARP
Of the three G League Ignite prospects projected to go in the first round, Buzelis has the weakest stats-only projection. He scored with below-average efficiency during the regular season due to 27% accuracy beyond the arc, and shot worse than 70% from the foul line. Buzelis was better there during Showcase Cup play. Buzelis is a strong shot blocker for a forward and did a solid job of avoiding turnovers, but rates this high solely because of his top 100 ranking.
18. Tyler Smith
G League Ignite
F/C
Top 100: No. 21
Stats: No. 24
Consensus: 1.4 WARP
Despite entering the season with less hype than teammates Buzelis and Ron Holland, Smith was the most effective player in the final season of Ignite on a per-minute basis. He shot 56% on 2s and 36% on 3s during the regular season, showing stretch 5 potential. To achieve that, Smith will have to improve his rim protection, having recorded blocks at a below-average rate for a center.
19. Ron Holland
G League Ignite
SF
Top 100: No. 13
Stats: No. 56
Consensus: 1.3 WARP
Although Ignite's dismal record left questions about how it translates, Holland was productive in the 29 games he played across the regular season and Showcase, leading Ignite with 20.6 PPG during the regular season. By getting to the free throw line, Holland maintained solid efficiency despite 24% 3-point shooting. He also filled out the box score with strong rates of rebounds, steals and blocks.
20. Devin Carter
Providence
G
Top 100: No. 17
Stats: No. 38
Consensus: 1.3 WARP
The son of longtime NBA guard Anthony Carter, Devin inherited his dad's physical defense but looks like the more complete offensive player after becoming a 38% 3-point shooter as a junior. (Anthony never averaged more than 7.8 PPG in 13 NBA seasons.) Perhaps Devin's best skill is his rebounding ability. At 6-3, he led the Big East in defensive rebound percentage this season.
21. Ryan Dunn
Virginia
F
Top 100: No. 31
Stats: No. 23
Consensus: 1.2 WARP
The top-rated defensive prospect in the top 100, Dunn has swatted more than 10% of opponent 2-point attempts in each of his two seasons at Virginia. Dunn is also mobile enough to defend on the perimeter, reflected by his strong steal rates. His projections, and draft stock, are limited by a lack of range. Dunn shot 7-of-35 on 3s and is a 52.5% career foul shooter. As a full-time post player, Dunn's slight frame (he's listed at 208 pounds) and below-average defensive rebounding are concerns.
22. Carlton Carrington
Pittsburgh
G
Top 100: No. 25
Stats: No. 34
Consensus: 1.2 WARP
The youngest American prospect in the top 100, Carrington was productive as a starter from Day 1, averaging 13.8 PPG, 5.2 RPG and 4.1 APG. His projection is limited by a lack of defensive playmaking -- he had just 19 steals and eight blocks in nearly 1,100 minutes.
23. Kam Jones
Marquette
SG
Top 100: No. 67
Stats: No. 15
Consensus: 1.0 WARP
Jones rates as Marquette's top prospect, ahead of his two teammates with higher top-100 rankings (Tyler Kolek, at No. 29, and Oso Ighodaro one spot ahead at No. 66). The Golden Eagles' top scorer at 17.2 PPG, Jones was also highly efficient, making better than 40% of his 3s and nearly 60% of his 2-point attempts. His steal rate is also strong, offsetting limited contributions as a rebounder and passer.
24. Baylor Scheierman
Creighton
SF
Top 100: No. 38
Stats: No. 32
Consensus: 1.0 WARP
At 23, Scheierman is the highest-rated fifth-year senior in the top 30 of my projections. Although age is a key factor, Scheierman still rates well because of his productive play early in his college career at South Dakota State before transferring to Creighton. We also have a robust sample to know that Scheierman, a 39% career 3-point shooter, is strong beyond the arc and a terrific perimeter player rebounder.
25. Alex Karaban
UConn
F
Top 100: No. 41
Stats: No. 30
Consensus: 0.9 WARP
The third Husky in my top 30, Karaban played a larger role offensively after starting on last year's national champion squad as a redshirt freshman. He remained highly efficient, shooting 64% on 2-point attempts and 88.5% on free throws. Karaban is also a good enough shot blocker to play small-ball 5 regularly when Clingan was sidelined midseason.
26. Justin Edwards
Kentucky
SF
Top 100: No. 30
Stats: No. 44
Consensus: 0.9 WARP
More so than any other player in this year's draft, Edwards reflects the importance of EYBL performance in these projections. He'd rank fourth among top 100 prospects who played in the EYBL based solely on his play there, compared to eighth among the same group looking strictly at NCAA performance. Orlando Magic guard Cole Anthony is a good example of the lingering predictive power of EYBL play despite an underwhelming freshman campaign.
27. Cody Williams
Colorado
SG
Top 100: No. 10
Stats: No. 103
Consensus: 0.9 WARP
Like fellow Pac-12 prospect Collier, Williams rated stronger coming into the season based on his EYBL performance -- in Williams' case, actually a larger sample of minutes than he played at Colorado as a freshman. His NCAA season was uneven, as Williams made 59% of his 2s and 41.5% of his 3s but generated few assists and steals.
28. Kobe Johnson
USC
SG
Top 100: No. 74
Stats: No. 20
Consensus: 0.9 WARP
The younger brother of Atlanta Hawks forward Jalen Johnson, Johnson posted on social media last week that he's committed to transfer to crosstown rival UCLA if he withdraws from the NBA draft. Having shot 33% career on 3s, Johnson needs to improve his shooting to fill a 3-and-D role in the NBA, but his steal rate is the best of any player in the top 100 -- a strong indicator of NBA defensive potential.
29. Yves Missi
Baylor
C
Top 100: No. 20
Stats: No. 75
Consensus: 0.9 WARP
It's easy to see the NBA role Missi could fill as an above-the-rim finisher with good positional size and athleticism. His stats-only projection is held back by shooting 61% from the field, middling for a center of that ilk, as well as just 13 assists in 780 minutes this season.
30. Zvonomir Ivisic
Kentucky
C/F
Top 100: No. 65
Stats: No. 22
Consensus: 0.8 WARP
Limited to 176 minutes this season because he wasn't cleared until mid-January, Ivisic flashed enough potential to consider drafting him before a Clingan-style breakout as a sophomore. He blocked 12% of opponents' 2-point attempts and shot 67% on 2s in addition to flashing 3-point range (6-of-16 beyond the arc). At 20, however, Ivisic is older than Clingan.
Although Edey had a dominant game (37 points, 10 rebounds), Clingan's ability to defend him one-on-one enabled the Huskies to stay home on Edey's teammates and limit 3-point attempts as the Huskies won their second title in a row.
Clingan and Edey are among four prospects with a consensus projection of 3.0 wins above replacement player (WARP) or better per season at the NBA level. Only the acclaimed 2014 draft (five) featured more such prospects dating back to 2012.
This year's top players are atypical in terms of establishing themselves late in the process, however. Edey was projected in the second round of the preseason mock draft from ESPN's Jonathan Givony, while Kentucky guard Reed Sheppard was nowhere to be found before his freshman season in Lexington.
My projections translate performance in NCAA Division I and other levels to an NBA equivalent then adjust for age and position to project value over a player's next five seasons. Lastly, I add in ESPN's top 100 prospect rankings for the best consensus projection.
For more on how my projections work and past examples, see here.
Now, let's get to the projections for players currently in the top 100.
1. Donovan Clingan
UConn
C
Top 100: No. 3
Stats: No. 3
Consensus: 3.7 WARP
Clingan had the top stats-based projection heading into last year's NCAA tournament while coming off the bench on the national championship winner behind NBA-bound Adama Sanogo. Clingan's strong productivity in that role has translated into dominance as a sophomore starter, particularly during the NCAA tournament run.
The 7-foot-2 Clingan would be just the third draft pick in my database projected to block at least 6% of opponent 2-point attempts and secure at least 20% of available defensive rebounds, joining Mo Bamba and Victor Wembanyama. Because he's moved all the way up to third in the top 100, Clingan now has the top overall projection despite dropping to third in the stats-only version.
2. Reed Sheppard
Kentucky
G
Top 100: No. 7
Stats: No. 1
Consensus: 3.7 WARP
Although Sheppard's 52% 3-point shooting (on a robust sample of 144 attempts) is regressed down to a projected 39% as an NBA rookie, that's still the best projection for any player since Doug McDermott -- who had multiple years of college data -- in 2014. Sheppard's projected 2.5 steals per 100 plays, second among players in this year's top 100, is almost as impressive as his shooting. Thanks largely to those key skills, Sheppard has the best stats-only projection in this year's draft.
3. Alex Sarr
Perth
C
Top 100: No. 2
Stats: No. 4
Consensus: 3.6 WARP
Sarr's stats-only projection is slightly better than the median No. 1 pick in the past 12 drafts. Playing in the Australian NBL at 18 years old, Sarr averaged 20.3 points, 9.2 rebounds and 2.8 blocks per 36 minutes this season. Despite shooting just 30% on 3s, Sarr's 71% accuracy at the line suggests he has the potential to develop into a stretch 5 in time.
4. Zach Edey
Purdue
C
Top 100: No. 14
Stats: No. 2
Consensus: 3.1 WARP
Nobody doubts that Edey has been the best player in college basketball. The question is how his skills will translate to the NBA at 7-4. One interesting data point: No college player with a usage projection as high as Edey's has been drafted in the past 12 years. The two players ahead of him, Marquette guard Markus Howard and former Purdue teammate Trevion Williams, played go-to roles that didn't carry over in the NBA. (Williams has yet to play in the league, while Howard did on a two-way contract.) Nonetheless, Edey's dominance has earned him a spot in the first round after he chose to return for his fourth season at Purdue. And, after moving up in the top 100, Edey is the fourth and final player in the top tier of my projections.
5. Zaccharie Risacher
Bourg
SF
Top 100: No. 1
Stats: No. 81
Consensus: 2.2 WARP
On the plus side, Risacher -- currently atop ESPN's draft rankings -- averaged 13.1 PPG in just 24 minutes per game during EuroCup play at 18 years old (he turned 19 on Monday), making 57% of his 2s and 56% of his 3s. That performance was out of line with Risacher's play in the French LNB Pro A, however, as he shot just 51% on 2s and 34% on 3s. And a 69% career free throw shooting percentage across all first-division competition suggests Risacher's 3-point hot streak in EuroCup play might not be legitimate.
6. Ja'Kobe Walter
Baylor
SG
Top 100: No. 12
Stats: No. 8
Consensus: 2.2 WARP
Walter's 3-point shooting will be a make-or-break skill. Nearly 60% of his shot attempts came from 3 at Baylor, and Walter hit them at a middling 34% clip. His 79% accuracy at the free throw line is more encouraging, and Walter could be more selective at the NBA level after launching 6.3 per game this season. Because the rest of Walter's game is somewhat limited, including 42% shooting from 2, he'll need to become a dangerous 3-point threat to play up to this projection.
7. Rob Dillingham
Kentucky
G
Top 100: No. 4
Stats: No. 29
Consensus: 2.2 WARP
Playing primarily alongside Sheppard off the bench for Kentucky, Dillingham had a 30% usage rate that was second-highest among Division I freshmen behind Notre Dame's Markus Burton according to Sports-Reference.com. Given that heavy load, Dillingham was highly efficient, ranking in the top 10 in true shooting percentage (.595) among freshmen with a 30% usage or higher since 2009-10. Dillingham shot 44% on 3s, not far behind Sheppard's mark.
8. Johnny Furphy
Kansas
SF
Top 100: No. 28
Stats: No. 4
Consensus: 2.0 WARP
Recruited from Australia, Furphy emerged as a starter over the second half of the season. For a freshman wing, Furphy's .609 true shooting percentage was terrific, and more the product of sustainably high 2-point accuracy (64%) than a 3-point hot streak. Furphy's form suggests he could improve on his 35% 3-point shooting as well. Add in good size (a listed 6-9) and Furphy could grow into a multi-positional threat.
9. Nikola Topic
Red Star
PG
Top 100: No. 5
Stats: No. 43
Consensus: 1.9 WARP
The top-rated prospect whose team is still in action, Topic could improve his projection if he can return from a knee injury suffered in early January just after joining EuroLeague side Red Star. Topic shot well inside the arc in his first extended action in the Adriatic Basketball Association while on loan to Mega MIS, making 67% of his 2s, but his stats-only projection is held back by poor 3-point shooting and low rates of steals and blocks.
10. Stephon Castle
UConn
G
Top 100: No. 9
Stats: No. 27
Consensus: 1.8 WARP
The top freshman on the national champion UConn, Castle played an important role throughout the NCAA tournament with his activity on both ends. From a statistical standpoint, Castle's 27% 3-point shooting is something of a concern, but he was solid at the free throw line (75.5%) and shot well enough from 2 (54%) to be reasonably efficient anyway.
11. Isaiah Collier
USC
PG
Top 100: No. 11
Stats: No. 26
Consensus: 1.7 WARP
Collier benefits from the inclusion of stats from the Nike EYBL AAU competitions. Based solely on his EYBL performance, Collier would rank fifth, helping explain why he entered the season projected as a top-five pick. Collier didn't perform at the same level as a freshman at USC and struggled with his turnovers -- his NCAA performance still makes up the bulk of his projection because he played just 221 minutes in EYBL games.
12. Jared McCain
Duke
G
Top 100: No. 19
Stats: No. 13
Consensus: 1.7 WARP
Another strong shooting freshman, McCain knocked down 41% of his 3-point attempts with an even better free throw percentage (88.5%) than Sheppard. At 6-3, McCain will have to demonstrate more playmaking ability than we saw alongside a pair of other ballhandling guards (Tyrese Proctor and Jeremy Roach) at Duke. Still, his fit looks strong alongside a bigger lead ball handler who can allow McCain to defend point guards.
13. Kyshawn George
Miami
G/F
Top 100: No. 24
Stats: No. 10
Consensus: 1.6 WARP
A native of Switzerland who played in France before coming to the U.S. for college, George shot 41% on 3s and used his size (listed 6-
to accumulate steals and blocks at good rates. He'll have to improve his finishing inside the arc after shooting just 47% on 2s and is already 20, more typical for a sophomore than a freshman.14. Kyle Filipowski
Duke
F/C
Top 100: No. 16
Stats: No. 25
Consensus: 1.5 WARP
After choosing to return for his sophomore season at Duke, Filipowski made solid strides across the board, improving his shooting percentages inside and beyond the arc and doubling his block rate on the defensive end. Filipowski could stand to develop his finishing, having shot just 59% within five feet, according to Synergy Sports tracking.
15. Tidjane Salaun
Cholet
SF
Top 100: No. 15
Stats: No. 36
Consensus: 1.4 WARP
Having played just 17 minutes total at the Pro A level last season, Salaun has averaged 22 MPG at 18 years old. He's shown 3-point range, making more than one per game at a 35% clip, but 39% accuracy inside the arc is a concern.
16. Payton Sandfort
Iowa
SF
Top 100: No. 35
Stats: No. 12
Consensus: 1.4 WARP
The latest in a line of NBA prospects from Iowa -- which has had a forward drafted in each of the last three years, first Joe Wieskamp and more recently twins Keegan and Kris Murray -- Sandfort stepped into a featured role with both Murrays now in the NBA. As a full-time starter, he shot a career-high 38% on 3s. A career 90% accuracy at the foul line suggests room for more growth as a shooter, which may be necessary to offset low rates of steals and blocks.
17. Matas Buzelis
G League Ignite
F
Top 100: No. 6
Stats: No. 86
Consensus: 1.4 WARP
Of the three G League Ignite prospects projected to go in the first round, Buzelis has the weakest stats-only projection. He scored with below-average efficiency during the regular season due to 27% accuracy beyond the arc, and shot worse than 70% from the foul line. Buzelis was better there during Showcase Cup play. Buzelis is a strong shot blocker for a forward and did a solid job of avoiding turnovers, but rates this high solely because of his top 100 ranking.
18. Tyler Smith
G League Ignite
F/C
Top 100: No. 21
Stats: No. 24
Consensus: 1.4 WARP
Despite entering the season with less hype than teammates Buzelis and Ron Holland, Smith was the most effective player in the final season of Ignite on a per-minute basis. He shot 56% on 2s and 36% on 3s during the regular season, showing stretch 5 potential. To achieve that, Smith will have to improve his rim protection, having recorded blocks at a below-average rate for a center.
19. Ron Holland
G League Ignite
SF
Top 100: No. 13
Stats: No. 56
Consensus: 1.3 WARP
Although Ignite's dismal record left questions about how it translates, Holland was productive in the 29 games he played across the regular season and Showcase, leading Ignite with 20.6 PPG during the regular season. By getting to the free throw line, Holland maintained solid efficiency despite 24% 3-point shooting. He also filled out the box score with strong rates of rebounds, steals and blocks.
20. Devin Carter
Providence
G
Top 100: No. 17
Stats: No. 38
Consensus: 1.3 WARP
The son of longtime NBA guard Anthony Carter, Devin inherited his dad's physical defense but looks like the more complete offensive player after becoming a 38% 3-point shooter as a junior. (Anthony never averaged more than 7.8 PPG in 13 NBA seasons.) Perhaps Devin's best skill is his rebounding ability. At 6-3, he led the Big East in defensive rebound percentage this season.
21. Ryan Dunn
Virginia
F
Top 100: No. 31
Stats: No. 23
Consensus: 1.2 WARP
The top-rated defensive prospect in the top 100, Dunn has swatted more than 10% of opponent 2-point attempts in each of his two seasons at Virginia. Dunn is also mobile enough to defend on the perimeter, reflected by his strong steal rates. His projections, and draft stock, are limited by a lack of range. Dunn shot 7-of-35 on 3s and is a 52.5% career foul shooter. As a full-time post player, Dunn's slight frame (he's listed at 208 pounds) and below-average defensive rebounding are concerns.
22. Carlton Carrington
Pittsburgh
G
Top 100: No. 25
Stats: No. 34
Consensus: 1.2 WARP
The youngest American prospect in the top 100, Carrington was productive as a starter from Day 1, averaging 13.8 PPG, 5.2 RPG and 4.1 APG. His projection is limited by a lack of defensive playmaking -- he had just 19 steals and eight blocks in nearly 1,100 minutes.
23. Kam Jones
Marquette
SG
Top 100: No. 67
Stats: No. 15
Consensus: 1.0 WARP
Jones rates as Marquette's top prospect, ahead of his two teammates with higher top-100 rankings (Tyler Kolek, at No. 29, and Oso Ighodaro one spot ahead at No. 66). The Golden Eagles' top scorer at 17.2 PPG, Jones was also highly efficient, making better than 40% of his 3s and nearly 60% of his 2-point attempts. His steal rate is also strong, offsetting limited contributions as a rebounder and passer.
24. Baylor Scheierman
Creighton
SF
Top 100: No. 38
Stats: No. 32
Consensus: 1.0 WARP
At 23, Scheierman is the highest-rated fifth-year senior in the top 30 of my projections. Although age is a key factor, Scheierman still rates well because of his productive play early in his college career at South Dakota State before transferring to Creighton. We also have a robust sample to know that Scheierman, a 39% career 3-point shooter, is strong beyond the arc and a terrific perimeter player rebounder.
25. Alex Karaban
UConn
F
Top 100: No. 41
Stats: No. 30
Consensus: 0.9 WARP
The third Husky in my top 30, Karaban played a larger role offensively after starting on last year's national champion squad as a redshirt freshman. He remained highly efficient, shooting 64% on 2-point attempts and 88.5% on free throws. Karaban is also a good enough shot blocker to play small-ball 5 regularly when Clingan was sidelined midseason.
26. Justin Edwards
Kentucky
SF
Top 100: No. 30
Stats: No. 44
Consensus: 0.9 WARP
More so than any other player in this year's draft, Edwards reflects the importance of EYBL performance in these projections. He'd rank fourth among top 100 prospects who played in the EYBL based solely on his play there, compared to eighth among the same group looking strictly at NCAA performance. Orlando Magic guard Cole Anthony is a good example of the lingering predictive power of EYBL play despite an underwhelming freshman campaign.
27. Cody Williams
Colorado
SG
Top 100: No. 10
Stats: No. 103
Consensus: 0.9 WARP
Like fellow Pac-12 prospect Collier, Williams rated stronger coming into the season based on his EYBL performance -- in Williams' case, actually a larger sample of minutes than he played at Colorado as a freshman. His NCAA season was uneven, as Williams made 59% of his 2s and 41.5% of his 3s but generated few assists and steals.
28. Kobe Johnson
USC
SG
Top 100: No. 74
Stats: No. 20
Consensus: 0.9 WARP
The younger brother of Atlanta Hawks forward Jalen Johnson, Johnson posted on social media last week that he's committed to transfer to crosstown rival UCLA if he withdraws from the NBA draft. Having shot 33% career on 3s, Johnson needs to improve his shooting to fill a 3-and-D role in the NBA, but his steal rate is the best of any player in the top 100 -- a strong indicator of NBA defensive potential.
29. Yves Missi
Baylor
C
Top 100: No. 20
Stats: No. 75
Consensus: 0.9 WARP
It's easy to see the NBA role Missi could fill as an above-the-rim finisher with good positional size and athleticism. His stats-only projection is held back by shooting 61% from the field, middling for a center of that ilk, as well as just 13 assists in 780 minutes this season.
30. Zvonomir Ivisic
Kentucky
C/F
Top 100: No. 65
Stats: No. 22
Consensus: 0.8 WARP
Limited to 176 minutes this season because he wasn't cleared until mid-January, Ivisic flashed enough potential to consider drafting him before a Clingan-style breakout as a sophomore. He blocked 12% of opponents' 2-point attempts and shot 67% on 2s in addition to flashing 3-point range (6-of-16 beyond the arc). At 20, however, Ivisic is older than Clingan.
HOU$TON
formerly convertibleburt
- Apr 14, 2016
- 13,523
- 26,417
I believe Sengun and cam whitmore were ranked #1 on his stats only projections in their drafts. So rockets will probably draft Reed Sheppard if they keep the pick.
- Sep 5, 2010
- 93,217
- 129,820
Sengun was first and Jalen was third in 2021 and Whitmore was third after Wemby and Miller last year.
- Sep 5, 2010
- 93,217
- 129,820
Someone explain to me how the wingspans changed just because they put on shoes. 
