HALL OF FAME PROBABILITY POST...VOL. NBA ACTIVE PLAYERS

elderwatsondiggs

elderwatsondiggs

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Below is the rationale behind the formula. Seems as if Lebron is a lock, and of course there is no need to even guess on Kobe. Ray Allen will get in as well, maybe not a first ballot, but he's getting in.

Hall of Fame probabilities are presented for all players with a minimum of400 NBA games played. Although it can be risky to make predictions foractive players, you can think of these probabilities as answering thequestion "If this player retired today, what is the probability he wouldbe elected to the Hall of Fame?". The model was built using a pool of 716players. One method to assess classification accuracy is to compare theestimated Hall of Fame probability for the case to the actual result. Ofthe 716 players, 88 had been elected to the Hall of Fame and 628 had not.If the player's predicted probability of election was greater than orequal to 0.5, I predicted that he was in the Hall of Fame. Of the 88players in the Hall of Fame, 72 were correctly classified (81.8%) and 16were not (18.2%). Of the 628 players not in the Hall of Fame, 619 werecorrectly classified (98.6%) and 9 were not (1.4%). Overall, 691 of the716 players (96.5%) were correctly classified by the model.


[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]HoF Prob[/th][/tr][tr][td]1.[/td][td]Shaquille O'Neal[/td][td]1.0000[/td][/tr][tr][td]2.[/td][td]Kobe Bryant[/td][td]0.9999[/td][/tr][tr][td]3.[/td][td]Tim Duncan[/td][td]0.9998[/td][/tr][tr][td]4.[/td][td]Allen Iverson[/td][td]0.9977[/td][/tr][tr][td]5.[/td][td]Kevin Garnett[/td][td]0.9971[/td][/tr][tr][td]6.[/td][td]LeBron James[/td][td]0.9801[/td][/tr][tr][td]7.[/td][td]Dwyane Wade[/td][td]0.9758[/td][/tr][tr][td]8.[/td][td]Paul Pierce[/td][td]0.9535[/td][/tr][tr][td]9.[/td][td]Dirk Nowitzki[/td][td]0.9105[/td][/tr][tr][td]10.[/td][td]Jason Kidd[/td][td]0.9073[/td][/tr][tr][td]11.[/td][td]Ray Allen[/td][td]0.9072[/td][/tr][tr][td]12.[/td][td]Vince Carter[/td][td]0.8662[/td][/tr][tr][td]13.[/td][td]Tracy McGrady[/td][td]0.7476[/td][/tr][tr][td]14.[/td][td]Tony Parker[/td][td]0.5183[/td][/tr][tr][td]15.[/td][td]Grant Hill[/td][td]0.4794[/td][/tr][tr][td]16.[/td][td]Gilbert Arenas[/td][td]0.4569[/td][/tr][tr][td]17.[/td][td]Chris Bosh[/td][td]0.4305[/td][/tr][tr][td]18.[/td][td]Pau Gasol[/td][td]0.4304[/td][/tr][tr][td]19.[/td][td]Amare Stoudemire[/td][td]0.4246[/td][/tr][tr][td]20.[/td][td]Carmelo Anthony[/td][td]0.4078[/td][/tr][tr][td]21.[/td][td]Steve Nash[/td][td]0.3654[/td][/tr][tr][td]22.[/td][td]Dwight Howard[/td][td]0.2877[/td][/tr][tr][td]23.[/td][td]Chauncey Billups[/td][td]0.2162[/td][/tr][tr][td]24.[/td][td]Shawn Marion[/td][td]0.2111[/td][/tr][tr][td]25.[/td][td]Elton Brand[/td][td]0.1586[/td][/tr][/table]
Click to expand...
 
Below is the rationale behind the formula. Seems as if Lebron is a lock, and of course there is no need to even guess on Kobe. Ray Allen will get in as well, maybe not a first ballot, but he's getting in.

Hall of Fame probabilities are presented for all players with a minimum of400 NBA games played. Although it can be risky to make predictions foractive players, you can think of these probabilities as answering thequestion "If this player retired today, what is the probability he wouldbe elected to the Hall of Fame?". The model was built using a pool of 716players. One method to assess classification accuracy is to compare theestimated Hall of Fame probability for the case to the actual result. Ofthe 716 players, 88 had been elected to the Hall of Fame and 628 had not.If the player's predicted probability of election was greater than orequal to 0.5, I predicted that he was in the Hall of Fame. Of the 88players in the Hall of Fame, 72 were correctly classified (81.8%) and 16were not (18.2%). Of the 628 players not in the Hall of Fame, 619 werecorrectly classified (98.6%) and 9 were not (1.4%). Overall, 691 of the716 players (96.5%) were correctly classified by the model.


[table][tr][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]HoF Prob[/th][/tr][tr][td]1.[/td][td]Shaquille O'Neal[/td][td]1.0000[/td][/tr][tr][td]2.[/td][td]Kobe Bryant[/td][td]0.9999[/td][/tr][tr][td]3.[/td][td]Tim Duncan[/td][td]0.9998[/td][/tr][tr][td]4.[/td][td]Allen Iverson[/td][td]0.9977[/td][/tr][tr][td]5.[/td][td]Kevin Garnett[/td][td]0.9971[/td][/tr][tr][td]6.[/td][td]LeBron James[/td][td]0.9801[/td][/tr][tr][td]7.[/td][td]Dwyane Wade[/td][td]0.9758[/td][/tr][tr][td]8.[/td][td]Paul Pierce[/td][td]0.9535[/td][/tr][tr][td]9.[/td][td]Dirk Nowitzki[/td][td]0.9105[/td][/tr][tr][td]10.[/td][td]Jason Kidd[/td][td]0.9073[/td][/tr][tr][td]11.[/td][td]Ray Allen[/td][td]0.9072[/td][/tr][tr][td]12.[/td][td]Vince Carter[/td][td]0.8662[/td][/tr][tr][td]13.[/td][td]Tracy McGrady[/td][td]0.7476[/td][/tr][tr][td]14.[/td][td]Tony Parker[/td][td]0.5183[/td][/tr][tr][td]15.[/td][td]Grant Hill[/td][td]0.4794[/td][/tr][tr][td]16.[/td][td]Gilbert Arenas[/td][td]0.4569[/td][/tr][tr][td]17.[/td][td]Chris Bosh[/td][td]0.4305[/td][/tr][tr][td]18.[/td][td]Pau Gasol[/td][td]0.4304[/td][/tr][tr][td]19.[/td][td]Amare Stoudemire[/td][td]0.4246[/td][/tr][tr][td]20.[/td][td]Carmelo Anthony[/td][td]0.4078[/td][/tr][tr][td]21.[/td][td]Steve Nash[/td][td]0.3654[/td][/tr][tr][td]22.[/td][td]Dwight Howard[/td][td]0.2877[/td][/tr][tr][td]23.[/td][td]Chauncey Billups[/td][td]0.2162[/td][/tr][tr][td]24.[/td][td]Shawn Marion[/td][td]0.2111[/td][/tr][tr][td]25.[/td][td]Elton Brand[/td][td]0.1586[/td][/tr][/table]
Click to expand...
 
26-50 ranked on probability of getting into the HOF as far as active players.

[table][tr][td]26.[/td][td]Antawn Jamison[/td][td]0.0861[/td][/tr][tr][td]27.[/td][td]Carlos Boozer[/td][td]0.0842[/td][/tr][tr][td]28.[/td][td]Baron Davis[/td][td]0.0828[/td][/tr][tr][td]29.[/td][td]Manu Ginobili[/td][td]0.0743[/td][/tr][tr][td]30.[/td][td]Richard Hamilton[/td][td]0.0718[/td][/tr][tr][td]31.[/td][td]Joe Johnson[/td][td]0.0643[/td][/tr][tr][td]32.[/td][td]Lamar Odom[/td][td]0.0599[/td][/tr][tr][td]33.[/td][td]Jermaine O'Neal[/td][td]0.0488[/td][/tr][tr][td]34.[/td][td]Rasheed Wallace[/td][td]0.0444[/td][/tr][tr][td]35.[/td][td]Derek Fisher[/td][td]0.0310[/td][/tr][tr][td]36.[/td][td]Zach Randolph[/td][td]0.0239[/td][/tr][tr][td]37.[/td][td]Caron Butler[/td][td]0.0234[/td][/tr][tr][td]38.[/td][td]Michael Redd[/td][td]0.0226[/td][/tr][tr][td]39.[/td][td]Michael Finley[/td][td]0.0216[/td][/tr][tr][td]40.[/td][td]Ron Artest[/td][td]0.0196[/td][/tr][tr][td]41.[/td][td]Jerry Stackhouse[/td][td]0.0194[/td][/tr][tr][td]42.[/td][td]Andre Miller[/td][td]0.0167[/td][/tr][tr][td]43.[/td][td]Peja Stojakovic[/td][td]0.0160[/td][/tr][tr][td]44.[/td][td]David West[/td][td]0.0156[/td][/tr][tr][td]45.[/td][td]Mike Bibby[/td][td]0.0143[/td][/tr][tr][td]46.[/td][td]Jason Richardson[/td][td]0.0124[/td][/tr][tr][td]47.[/td][td]Andre Iguodala[/td][td]0.0113[/td][/tr][tr][td]48.[/td][td]Ben Wallace[/td][td]0.0093[/td][/tr][tr][td]49.[/td][td]Mo Williams[/td][td]0.0089[/td][/tr][tr][td]50.[/td][td]Rashard Lewis[/td][td]0.0087[/td][/tr][/table]
 
26-50 ranked on probability of getting into the HOF as far as active players.

[table][tr][td]26.[/td][td]Antawn Jamison[/td][td]0.0861[/td][/tr][tr][td]27.[/td][td]Carlos Boozer[/td][td]0.0842[/td][/tr][tr][td]28.[/td][td]Baron Davis[/td][td]0.0828[/td][/tr][tr][td]29.[/td][td]Manu Ginobili[/td][td]0.0743[/td][/tr][tr][td]30.[/td][td]Richard Hamilton[/td][td]0.0718[/td][/tr][tr][td]31.[/td][td]Joe Johnson[/td][td]0.0643[/td][/tr][tr][td]32.[/td][td]Lamar Odom[/td][td]0.0599[/td][/tr][tr][td]33.[/td][td]Jermaine O'Neal[/td][td]0.0488[/td][/tr][tr][td]34.[/td][td]Rasheed Wallace[/td][td]0.0444[/td][/tr][tr][td]35.[/td][td]Derek Fisher[/td][td]0.0310[/td][/tr][tr][td]36.[/td][td]Zach Randolph[/td][td]0.0239[/td][/tr][tr][td]37.[/td][td]Caron Butler[/td][td]0.0234[/td][/tr][tr][td]38.[/td][td]Michael Redd[/td][td]0.0226[/td][/tr][tr][td]39.[/td][td]Michael Finley[/td][td]0.0216[/td][/tr][tr][td]40.[/td][td]Ron Artest[/td][td]0.0196[/td][/tr][tr][td]41.[/td][td]Jerry Stackhouse[/td][td]0.0194[/td][/tr][tr][td]42.[/td][td]Andre Miller[/td][td]0.0167[/td][/tr][tr][td]43.[/td][td]Peja Stojakovic[/td][td]0.0160[/td][/tr][tr][td]44.[/td][td]David West[/td][td]0.0156[/td][/tr][tr][td]45.[/td][td]Mike Bibby[/td][td]0.0143[/td][/tr][tr][td]46.[/td][td]Jason Richardson[/td][td]0.0124[/td][/tr][tr][td]47.[/td][td]Andre Iguodala[/td][td]0.0113[/td][/tr][tr][td]48.[/td][td]Ben Wallace[/td][td]0.0093[/td][/tr][tr][td]49.[/td][td]Mo Williams[/td][td]0.0089[/td][/tr][tr][td]50.[/td][td]Rashard Lewis[/td][td]0.0087[/td][/tr][/table]
 
Big three in the top 30.
f4e16f43b48cec5ce96f7cbcebbd3986d24379af.gif


But Parker has a better chance to get in before MANU???
Spoiler [+]
2433443809_653189604d_o.jpg
 
Big three in the top 30.
f4e16f43b48cec5ce96f7cbcebbd3986d24379af.gif


But Parker has a better chance to get in before MANU???
Spoiler [+]
2433443809_653189604d_o.jpg
 
how is kobe not on shaqs level???? how on earth is he a .9999....why the deduction???? ....1.0000???
 
how is kobe not on shaqs level???? how on earth is he a .9999....why the deduction???? ....1.0000???
 
Dwight Howard has a much better chance of getting in than Tracy McGrady, but then the model doesn't accout for injuries or knowing when a player is done.

I wonder why Carmelo ranks so low.
 
Dwight Howard has a much better chance of getting in than Tracy McGrady, but then the model doesn't accout for injuries or knowing when a player is done.

I wonder why Carmelo ranks so low.
 
Steve Nash at 21? Lower than Gilbert Arenas? Hell, Amare is ahead of him...guess who was feeding Amare for all those points
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Steve Nash at 21? Lower than Gilbert Arenas? Hell, Amare is ahead of him...guess who was feeding Amare for all those points
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Remember guys this is a probability list. After 80% it gets kinda hairy. You can pretty much count on the 90% and above to get in though.
 
Remember guys this is a probability list. After 80% it gets kinda hairy. You can pretty much count on the 90% and above to get in though.
 
Originally Posted by TheRealMcCoy12

how is kobe not on shaqs level???? how on earth is he a .9999....why the deduction???? ....1.0000???
Click to expand...
I would say the odds are more of the percentage of votes they'll likely get at this point. There will be people that won't vote for Kobe because of his past as it still rubs people the wrong way. But having said that, I'm sure they're will be voters that won't vote for Shaq for whatever reason as well, so he shouldn't really be ba 1.0000 lock even though both will obviously be first ballot HOF'ers. And I think this vote is kinda skewed because it's not taking college careers in to account because I think Grant Hill, Mike Bibby, Rips college years were impressive enough to establish them as "basketball" HOF'ers.

  
 
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