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we’re back to May 1st numbers on the 7 day rolling average for daily cases, as a whole for the USA. As far as deaths, that’s lagging a solid month. Yikes guys. CA and all these red states will ruin it for the rest of us.
 
Number blew up in west Texas . It’s also almost impossible to get tested . All the drive thru testing is gone , they won’t test you at urgent cares , and dr.offices don’t have any rapid testing any more . I had to drive all the way to Lubbock to get tested which is an hour and change away.
 
Question. Right now the US is hovering at around 2.3 million cases. This is since March or whenever we started counting cases, correct?? So this doesn't necessarily mean that there are 2.3 million people with the virus at this very moment, right??? I know I have to take into consideration that there are people who may be asymptomatic that aren't getting tested so that can skew the data...I get that, but it's just something I've been thinking about. How many people are out there right now with it.

Also, I'm still confused at the morality rate. I've heard people say it's less than 1% and then I've seen friends on my social media who are stats majors and mathematicians say that it's actually closer to 3-5%. Sorry for the rant. Just trying to find some solid ground to stand on. I know there isn't really any which is why we probably all have anxiety haha.
 
KilroyIverson21 said:
Question. Right now the US is hovering at around 2.3 million cases. This is since March or whenever we started counting cases, correct?? So this doesn't necessarily mean that there are 2.3 million people with the virus at this very moment, right??? I know I have to take into consideration that there are people who may be asymptomatic that aren't getting tested so that can skew the data...I get that, but it's just something I've been thinking about. How many people are out there right now with it.

Also, I'm still confused at the morality rate. I've heard people say it's less than 1% and then I've seen friends on my social media who are stats majors and mathematicians say that it's actually closer to 3-5%. Sorry for the rant. Just trying to find some solid ground to stand on. I know there isn't really any which is why we probably all have anxiety haha.
Click to expand...


Its a rolling count, past and current cases.

No idea about the mortality rate now. Anyone can chime in on that?
 
KilroyIverson21 said:
Question. Right now the US is hovering at around 2.3 million cases. This is since March or whenever we started counting cases, correct?? So this doesn't necessarily mean that there are 2.3 million people with the virus at this very moment, right??? I know I have to take into consideration that there are people who may be asymptomatic that aren't getting tested so that can skew the data...I get that, but it's just something I've been thinking about. How many people are out there right now with it.

Also, I'm still confused at the morality rate. I've heard people say it's less than 1% and then I've seen friends on my social media who are stats majors and mathematicians say that it's actually closer to 3-5%. Sorry for the rant. Just trying to find some solid ground to stand on. I know there isn't really any which is why we probably all have anxiety haha.
Click to expand...
Most states are NOT subtracting cured/recovered cases from their Main count. Subtract deaths and recoveries from the total and that’s your current active count.
www.worldometers.info

United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.
www.worldometers.info www.worldometers.info
This has 2.4 million total cases with about 1 million recovered and 120,000 deaths. Subtract both and you’re around 1.3 million active cases. Of the active, they say about 2% are serious, with most being completely mild.

Same with the World. 9.3 million total. 5 million recovered. 3.8 million active. Of the active, 2% in serious shape.

Many of the ones claiming 1% believe that millions have had the virus and didn’t get tested. So the actual total count is undercounted. If we had 5 million who had it and survived (Without a confirmed test), adding that to the USA figures, it becomes much less deadly, on average.
And then you have to look at states and regions calling everything covid. So the 10% death rate that’s out there also may be over counting. I believe it’s somewhere between both extremes
 
KilroyIverson21 said:
Question. Right now the US is hovering at around 2.3 million cases. This is since March or whenever we started counting cases, correct?? So this doesn't necessarily mean that there are 2.3 million people with the virus at this very moment, right??? I know I have to take into consideration that there are people who may be asymptomatic that aren't getting tested so that can skew the data...I get that, but it's just something I've been thinking about. How many people are out there right now with it.

Also, I'm still confused at the morality rate. I've heard people say it's less than 1% and then I've seen friends on my social media who are stats majors and mathematicians say that it's actually closer to 3-5%. Sorry for the rant. Just trying to find some solid ground to stand on. I know there isn't really any which is why we probably all have anxiety haha.
Click to expand...

I personally think any state in the US or any country in the world doesn’t have any true numbers that even includes China Even with all their under counting.

it seems impossible to get a complete number in any part of the world
 
KilroyIverson21 said:
Question. Right now the US is hovering at around 2.3 million cases. This is since March or whenever we started counting cases, correct?? So this doesn't necessarily mean that there are 2.3 million people with the virus at this very moment, right??? I know I have to take into consideration that there are people who may be asymptomatic that aren't getting tested so that can skew the data...I get that, but it's just something I've been thinking about. How many people are out there right now with it.

Also, I'm still confused at the morality rate. I've heard people say it's less than 1% and then I've seen friends on my social media who are stats majors and mathematicians say that it's actually closer to 3-5%. Sorry for the rant. Just trying to find some solid ground to stand on. I know there isn't really any which is why we probably all have anxiety haha.
Click to expand...
It can get complicated, so let's define each component.

Detected cases: This is the 2.3 million number. This is the total number of people who have tested positive over all time.

True number of cases: This is unknown because of all the people who never got tested and/or were asymptomatic. We can approximate this by doing antibody tests. This tests to see if you were ever exposed to the virus and mounted an immune response. Typically you test a sample of people (let's say 1000 in a population of 1 million) and see how many have antibodies. If 100 have antibodies, you say 10% of the population has has coronavirus (or 100,000 people). You compare that to the detected cases. Say there are only 10,000 detected cases. So you extrapolate and say that, for every 1 detected case, there are probably 9 undetected cases. In reality, this ratio is probably somewhere between 1 to 5 and 1 to 10.

Current number of active infections: There is no real data for this. We assume an active infection lasts about 2 weeks, so most of those 2.3 million detected cases are no longer actively infected.

Case fatality rate: This is the fraction of deaths among the detected cases. So currently that is 120,000 divided by 2.3 million, or about 5%. But this is unreliable because it depends heavily on how much we're testing.

Infection fatality rate: This is the more meaningful number. It is the fraction of deaths among anyone infected with the virus. However, it requires estimating the the true number of cases, as discussed above. Our best estimates are that it is somewhere between 0.4-1.0%. Let's say it is 1.0%. That means, with 120k deaths, there have been 12 million infections so far.

some caveats -- deaths lag infections by about 2 weeks, so all these numbers are dynamic. also, infection fatality rates depend on demographics (are older people getting infected? how healthy is the population to begin with?) and availability of health care.
 
patch.com

NY 1 Of Only 3 States Close To Containing Coronavirus: Study

Massachusetts and New Jersey also made the list.
patch.com patch.com

for this reason only nyc and the other 3 states have to shut its borders with all of the US And the rest of the world
no travel in or out of these states

I know it’s not possible but new laws need to be written up and the freedom of travel need to stop or we will never beat this virus
 
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