Indeed, this is not the first time the Fed has dropped its benchmark rate to zero. Rates were held at that level between December 2008 and December 2015 to help the U.S. economy weather the Great Recession. Even through all of that, the median mortgage rate was 4.2% during that time period, Hale noted.
And even if Treasury yields were to fall to the same level as the federal funds rate, mortgage rates likely wouldn’t follow.
“Because mortgage bonds are considered riskier than government bonds, they tend to be slightly higher than 10-year rates,” Hale said. “Even if the market spread were to return to normal, given where 10-year rates have been in the last week or so, we’re looking at mortgage rates around 2.5%.”