After seeing the schedule.
I'm going 34-48... Shades of the 2004-2005 Lakers
To get into the playoffs as an 8th seed in the West should be about 43 wins, 7th seed likely 50 wins.
Warriors, Spurs, Clippers, Rockets, Thunder, Grizzles, Pelicans are lock Top 7.
Then you have Mavericks, Kings & Suns. And nothing about those 3 teams scream much, if any more than a .500 team.
Why such a big jump?
1. Our defense will be much approved with Roy Hibbert. He took a team that lost Lance who played great defense, and PG who played great defense as well, replaced by Solomon Hill & Rodney Stuckey to 8th in defensive efficiency. He also provides rim protection opposite of Julius, who I think will be a decent defender on Stretch 4s, it's banging in the paint on defense, I'm less confident about, despite being strong. We have 3 young guys in the starting lineup, Hibbert protecting the rim will keep their confidence up in a way that Hill couldn't. It's demoralizing if a guy gets passed you and scores with ease. Hibbert will prevent that. And clean up a lot of mistakes. I think Russell can be a good defender on the middle & bottom tier PGs due to length, and decent speed. Clarkson can be good against most SGs, with the exception of the elite, and guys who just have too much strength.
We were 29th in defensive efficiency. Any where near the middle of the pack in defensive efficiency would add a few wins.
2. Plenty of guys who can handle the ball, and initiate an offense.. Russell, Clarkson, Kobe & Randle to varying degrees can initiate an offense, and get plays started.
3. So long as we can prevent second chance attempts when Hibbert redirects shots by getting those rebounds, Russell, Clarkson & Randle on the break will get plenty of easy points.
4. The load on Kobe is not nearly as bad as it was last year. Russell, Clarkson, Lou & Swaggy will not only bring down minutes for Kobe to a manageable 26-28 (at least it should), those guys can either handle the ball or score. Kobe no longer needs to go on his own to force all points.
5. Lou Williams, Russell & Clarkson make every thing easier for Swaggy. He had a horrible year. But for a few reasons. Other than Kobe, he was the only scoring threat. And when Kobe wasn't on the floor, teams could key in on him. He also had the ball way too often. He can get points one-on-one isolation. BUT when he's the only guy out there who can score, and you rely on him to create ALL of his points? You're asking for trouble. Russell & Clarkson give him guys who can get him the ball in Spot Up situations, and Lou Will takes some of the scoring threat shine off of Nick Young, despite those 2 being similar players, it helps to have someone else who can score out there.
6. The team is better. Ronnie Price played half the PG minutes in half the games. Ryan Kelly at the 3. Hill as our starting Center. Sacre got more minutes than he should (he's an emergency guy, but played 16 minutes a game for 67 games). Clarkson & Black should be better. Russell 1st year should be as good as Lin today due to a more complete game. Boozer was actually pretty good last year on offense, Bass could produce very similarly. Randle is playing, and I truly believe by the end of last season had he not broken his leg Game 1, he would have added at least a couple of wins, or had a hand in a couple more wins. Hibbert >>>>>>>> Hill for what this team needed last year & this year. I think the only place this team got worse was losing Ed Davis. Every thing else became an upswing.
We won't be good due to being a young team + not having a prime # 1 scorer. But we will be trending in the right direction.