From TA
Harrison Bader, 29
Controlled through 2023
2023 salary: $4.7 million (second year of two-year, $10.4 million extension)
The two contracts Bader had to love seeing this past winter were for Brandon Nimmo(eight years and $162 million with the Mets) and Andrew Benintendi (five years and $75 million with the
White Sox). Bader’s track record entering his walk year, in fact, isn’t far off of what Nimmo’s was this time last year. Nimmo made $7 million last season, Bader can earn nearly that much in incentives this year.
When I did
this exercise more thoroughly for Nimmo last spring, I landed at a baseline deal just like Benintendi’s: five years and $75 million, albeit with significant incentives. I ended that by writing, “If Nimmo does stay healthy and post the kind of 5-WAR season he’s capable of, he’ll make more than this in free agency.” Nimmo stayed healthy, posted a 5-WAR season and made a lot more in free agency.
Bader doesn’t have quite Nimmo’s ceiling. He played at just about a three-win pace last year while missing half the season. But he plays
a position of extreme scarcity well, provides some impact with the bat, and has done more than Benintendi over the past few years. That would seem to put his floor at about $15 million for any years of free agency an extension would buy out. Let’s buy out five free-agent years for Bader at $16 million per year and guarantee the $7 million he could make this season, giving him a six-year, $87 million deal.
Luis Severino, 29
Controlled through 2023
2023 salary: $15 million (exercised club option on four-year, $40 million extension)
The Yankees’ decision to pick up Severino’s club option for this season — the salary minus the buyout equals $12.25 million — gives you some sense of his worth even after he’s tossed a total of 120 innings in the past four years. Most of those came last year, and most of those were very good innings, so Severino has the chance to make himself a lot of money with a full season of that kind of performance. (Most free agents with Severino’s profile signed one-year deals in order to rebuild their value.) He knows it himself,
telling The Athletic that this is “his most important year.”
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A healthy season from Severino could put him back in company with Zack Wheeler, Hyun-jin Ryu or Carlos Rodón before they signed their big deals for more than $20 million per season. Instead, at the moment, Severino’s best comp is probably Alex Cobb, who signed a four-year $57 million deal with
Baltimore after one full season back from Tommy John surgery.
An extension would thus bridge some of the gap between those two spots, valuing Severino’s free-agent years around $18 million per season. This will only be his age-29 season, so it could remain on the shorter end: Think four years and $70 million.