Originally Posted by 4wrestling
Interesting 1st half dog system. I did a series of round robin 1/2 unit parlays based on it.
Just got through reading an article on Offenses wins games, not the Defense. I wanted to see how , using the OFFENSIVE STAT, an ORANK SYSTEM compare to the DRANK SYSTEM that I’ve been tracking since Week 1.
Since I did not track the Offensive Rating/Ranking from week 1, I used only the weeks that I have noted in my notebook (Week 7,8,9). I know the sample size is small, but, the results, I think, is worth the post. This is a very simple system with only one exception to the rule: Eliminate the double-digit favorite from the system.
Plays/Picks does not take anything (injuries, weather, etc) into consideration. Only criteria is to play on the higher ranking/rated offense, according to a stat (same one as the DRANK stat, only using the offensive stat here) I use to measure best to worst offenses.
I went through my notes for the last three weeks to get all the plays. I used my parlay lines,divided it by two and used that number as my half-time line, and based the win/loss record on it. I tried looking for past half-time lines but couldn’t find a site with them. Your BEST BETS would be to play all the DOGS (in system) to win the 1st Half bet.
Here’s the breakdown
ORANK 1st HALF BETTING SYSTEM
PLAYING ON THE HIGHER RANKED OFFENSE.
(According to a stat I use to measure offense rating/ranking)
Week 7 - ATS
HF - 2-3-0
RF - 0-2-0
HD - 1-0-0
RD - 5-1-0
FAV 2-5-0
DOG 6-1-0
TOT 8-6-0 ATS
==============
Week 8
HF - 4-4-0
RF - 0-1-0
HD - 0-0-0
RD - 3-1-0
FAV 4-5-0
DOG 3-1-0
TOT 7-6-0 ATS
WK 7&8 TOTALS
FAV 6-10-0 ATS
DOG 9-2-0 ATS
===============
Week 9
HF - 1-2-1
RF - 3-1-1
HD - 2-0-0
RD - 2-0-0
FAV 4-3-2
DOG 4-0-0
TOT 8-3-2
WK 7,8 & 9 TOTALS
FAV 10-13-2 ATS
DOG 13-2-0 ATS
=================
WEEK 10
HomeFavs 7-10-1 ATS
ATL PK W 10-0
Indy -4
TB -3’
Jax -1’
NYG -7
Ariz-1’
Road Favs 3-4-1 ATS
NYJ -1’
KC-1’
Phil -1’
Tenn PK
Home Dogs 3-0-0 ATS
Chicago PK
Road Dogs 10-2-0 ATS
Det +1’
STL +3
NE +2
Originally Posted by 4wrestling
Interesting 1st half dog system. I did a series of round robin 1/2 unit parlays based on it.
Just got through reading an article on Offenses wins games, not the Defense. I wanted to see how , using the OFFENSIVE STAT, an ORANK SYSTEM compare to the DRANK SYSTEM that I’ve been tracking since Week 1.
Since I did not track the Offensive Rating/Ranking from week 1, I used only the weeks that I have noted in my notebook (Week 7,8,9). I know the sample size is small, but, the results, I think, is worth the post. This is a very simple system with only one exception to the rule: Eliminate the double-digit favorite from the system.
Plays/Picks does not take anything (injuries, weather, etc) into consideration. Only criteria is to play on the higher ranking/rated offense, according to a stat (same one as the DRANK stat, only using the offensive stat here) I use to measure best to worst offenses.
I went through my notes for the last three weeks to get all the plays. I used my parlay lines,divided it by two and used that number as my half-time line, and based the win/loss record on it. I tried looking for past half-time lines but couldn’t find a site with them. Your BEST BETS would be to play all the DOGS (in system) to win the 1st Half bet.
Here’s the breakdown
ORANK 1st HALF BETTING SYSTEM
PLAYING ON THE HIGHER RANKED OFFENSE.
(According to a stat I use to measure offense rating/ranking)
Week 7 - ATS
HF - 2-3-0
RF - 0-2-0
HD - 1-0-0
RD - 5-1-0
FAV 2-5-0
DOG 6-1-0
TOT 8-6-0 ATS
==============
Week 8
HF - 4-4-0
RF - 0-1-0
HD - 0-0-0
RD - 3-1-0
FAV 4-5-0
DOG 3-1-0
TOT 7-6-0 ATS
WK 7&8 TOTALS
FAV 6-10-0 ATS
DOG 9-2-0 ATS
===============
Week 9
HF - 1-2-1
RF - 3-1-1
HD - 2-0-0
RD - 2-0-0
FAV 4-3-2
DOG 4-0-0
TOT 8-3-2
WK 7,8 & 9 TOTALS
FAV 10-13-2 ATS
DOG 13-2-0 ATS
=================
WEEK 10
HomeFavs 7-10-1 ATS
ATL PK W 10-0
Indy -4
TB -3’
Jax -1’
NYG -7
Ariz-1’
Road Favs 3-4-1 ATS
NYJ -1’
KC-1’
Phil -1’
Tenn PK
Home Dogs 3-0-0 ATS
Chicago PK
Road Dogs 10-2-0 ATS
Det +1’
STL +3
NE +2
great bet
great bet
Definitely nice to end the night with a win, especially when it's a straight up Fakers lossOriginally Posted by peep the kicks
great bet
Definitely nice to end the night with a win, especially when it's a straight up Fakers lossOriginally Posted by peep the kicks
great bet
Sorry, I wasn't ignoring your post. Honestly didn't see it until you just posted.Originally Posted by Uter Zorker
FWIW since you (or someone) will probably ask me why you shouldn't I'll give a quick comment on it before I go watch this Cowboys 2nd half (had to take +7 +110 btw, oh well)
It's a horrible financial decision to parlay in the first place, but when you parlay games at all different times it takes it to a whole nother level of stupid (sorry for being blunt),
For instance, you parlay a couple 1pm games, a couple 4pm games, fine, that's even a bit over the top but sometimes the 1pm games run into the 4pm'ers so I can understand - example - the Jets/Browns today running into OT, but to add the 8:20pm game, or *shudders* the MNF game just does not make sense. There are so many things that could happen before and you're never going to run into the problem of the 4pm games bleeding over into the 8:20pm game, or hell even the MNF game
It's much more logical to parlay your 1pm games (and sometimes add in the 4pm's) and then collect your money and then make a play...
Say you have 100 to win 1000 on a 4 teamer,
1pm - Bengals +7,
1pm - Jaguars PK,
1pm - Bills PK,
8pm - Steelers -5.5
If you had just done the 3 teamer, you're getting 100 to win 600, you have 700 now going into the 4pm games, or even the 8pm game. When you add a team in the 8pm time slot you're essentially risking all 700 to win 400 on that Steelers play, just not a smart financial decision, plus, would you really like the Steelers that much to risk all that $? Probably not.
I tried to put it in simple terms, wrote it quick, and wow at Felix Jones with the long TD run as I type this, but I want to pass along any knowledge I can to you guys - I hope it makes sense, and none of you will ever parlay games at different times (and different dates)
There is nothing worse than the guy that parlays a bunch of Sunday games, and then throws in the Monday Night Football game with them, nothing. That is how you lose long term.
Sorry, I wasn't ignoring your post. Honestly didn't see it until you just posted.Originally Posted by Uter Zorker
FWIW since you (or someone) will probably ask me why you shouldn't I'll give a quick comment on it before I go watch this Cowboys 2nd half (had to take +7 +110 btw, oh well)
It's a horrible financial decision to parlay in the first place, but when you parlay games at all different times it takes it to a whole nother level of stupid (sorry for being blunt),
For instance, you parlay a couple 1pm games, a couple 4pm games, fine, that's even a bit over the top but sometimes the 1pm games run into the 4pm'ers so I can understand - example - the Jets/Browns today running into OT, but to add the 8:20pm game, or *shudders* the MNF game just does not make sense. There are so many things that could happen before and you're never going to run into the problem of the 4pm games bleeding over into the 8:20pm game, or hell even the MNF game
It's much more logical to parlay your 1pm games (and sometimes add in the 4pm's) and then collect your money and then make a play...
Say you have 100 to win 1000 on a 4 teamer,
1pm - Bengals +7,
1pm - Jaguars PK,
1pm - Bills PK,
8pm - Steelers -5.5
If you had just done the 3 teamer, you're getting 100 to win 600, you have 700 now going into the 4pm games, or even the 8pm game. When you add a team in the 8pm time slot you're essentially risking all 700 to win 400 on that Steelers play, just not a smart financial decision, plus, would you really like the Steelers that much to risk all that $? Probably not.
I tried to put it in simple terms, wrote it quick, and wow at Felix Jones with the long TD run as I type this, but I want to pass along any knowledge I can to you guys - I hope it makes sense, and none of you will ever parlay games at different times (and different dates)
There is nothing worse than the guy that parlays a bunch of Sunday games, and then throws in the Monday Night Football game with them, nothing. That is how you lose long term.
