My UFC 123 Write up (all analysis based on current 5dimes lines)
After a lackluster no value UFC 122 card last week, we are given what looks to be an EXCELLENT (in terms of entertainment and potential betting) card with UFC 123.
Main Event:
Lyoto Machida (-230) v. Quinton "Rampage" Jackson (+210)
Assuming I don't get absolutely cleaned out on CBB or early Saturday CFB games, I am planning on scaling up and putting a sizeable bet down on this fight. I know one should never bet a huge portion of their roll on a single event, but I feel that the price is right here.
two words... BET MACHIDA.
Why? The man drinks his own pee. Not good enough for you? He brought in a high level Aikido 7th degree black belt into camp to help with his training (none other than Steven Seagal himself!) All kidding aside, I think Machida is the clear favorite here, much more than a -230 line would indicate.
Rampage is not a high level MT practioner or boxer, hes not a BJJ whiz, and he doesn't have an elite level wrestling pedigree. Rampage is a fighter/brawler in the truest sense of the word. Dude likes to lay the hurt and go for the KO. He has wicked power in both hands and can easily put the lights out at moments notice. The problem is, Machida is arguably the BEST counterpuncher in MMA and his defense is second to none. Do not be blinded by his last performance against Shogun. One fight does not make a fighter. Even the best in the world is capable of getting caught on any given night, expecially if you are fighting someone as explosive as Shogun. So can Machida get caught again? Absolutely, but I am laying -230 (hopefully my book will be around there) that he won't this time.
Personally, I don't put a lot of stock into the stories about Rampage being distracted at his last fight due to his A-Team promotional requirements. Rampage (who i still love to watch and is one of my favorite fighters, hell i have a Rampage action figure on my desk in front of me right now) just got outclassed by the better strategy and *gulp* better fighter (that night) when he fought Rashad. I don't think we are going to see some crazy new and improved Rampage that is vastly different than the last Rampage we saw.
Machida has fought agressive powerful strikers before. If anything, it has shown us that fighters who are ultra aggressive and try to stalk Machida end up with the short end of the stick (ie. Thiago Silva). I see this fight going one of two ways. If Rampage presses the action and is really aggressive and always coming forward, Machida will tighten his defense and look for an opening to counter. If Rampage decides to hang back a bit and take a more cautious approach, I can see Machida snapping that low leg kick and using his range to score points and frustrate Rampage into making a mistake. I honestly feel that Machida's defense and counter punching is just too good for him to get caught by a Rampage haymaker and go down for the count.
BJ Penn (-155) vs. Matt Hughes (+145)
I personally refuse to bet against my guy BJ, but I hope that I can still give an unbiased analysis of this fight.
If I didn't have an unwavering allegiance to BJ, I would probably lean towards a play on Hughes. BJ is known for his legendary takedown defense, but in his last two fights a smaller and arguably weaker Frankie Edgar was able to get him to the mat. Even though he is in the twilight of his career, u cannot discount Hughes's strength and takedown ability. Hughes has had a bit of a late career revivial, whereas BJ has looked very lackluster in his recent bouts against Edgar. That's probably the reason why the line initially opened with Penn as a slight dog. BJ fanboys and early bettors must have been pounding the line ever since it opened, and I feel that at the current price there is some value with Hughes.
#1 issue past, present, and future with BJ is always his cardio. Prior to the two Edgar fights, BJ went into the championship rounds against both Florian and Sanchez, and looked no worse for wear. Everyone (including me) thought he put his conditioning problems behind him. In the Edgar fights, it wasn't so much that he gassed out, but he just looked a bit sluggish right from the cut. To my untrained eyes, I feel that BJ has a tendency to fade out when he is not the aggressor. Going into this fight, BJ will probably give up close to 20 lbs to Hughes (read something today that said BJ is walking around at 165). I just dont see Hughes backpeddling and letting BJ dictate the pace of action here. I really feel that he is going to try and utilize his size advantage to wear on BJ. Expect BJ to come out looking sharp in round 1 and probably even win round 1. If Hughes can continue to wear BJ out, the tide will start to change the longer the fight goes. In my eyes this is a coin flip fight and can go either way. To get odds on Hughes means that there is some value there. While I dont like this play as much as Machida, I still think it is a decent play at +145 (but I'm not going to bet it myself)
George Sotiropolous (-220) v. Joe Lauzon (+200)
Hard fight to call. I've always discounted Soti, and I lost a good chunk of change when I bet against him in the Stevenson fight. While I think he has the edge here, the price on Lauzon is close enough where I am considering a smaller play. I feel that they are very similar fighters.
Soti has a lot of hype behind him right now (deservedly so) but I have to ask myself, who has he really beaten? Lets look at his recent fights.
Kurt Pellegrino - bum. not even gatekeeper status. more of a stepping stool for middle to upper tier fighters.
Joe Stevenson - bum. (allow me to elaborate). I fully expected Joe to come in and utilize his strong wrestling and top control game in this fight. With strategy guru Greg Jackson in his corner, it sounds pretty obvious that Stevenson would rely on his strengths, right? WRONG. Instead, this dumb little T-rex comes in and tries to stand with Soti. How you gonna stand and box with a guy when you have 12" alligator arms? Soti was able to pick Stevenson apart fairly easily by utilizing his massive reach advantage.
Jason Dent - bum
George Roop - natural 145er, and not even an elite 145er.
Outside of Joe Stevenson (i'll give him some credit) Lauzon is in a different class than those dudes. J-lau has some decent takedowns and slick jits game. In comparing the two fighters, I would give Soti a slight edge on the feet, both have fairly good grappling skills, and to be honest, I havent seen a whole lot in terms of Soti's wrestling so its hard for me to say who has the edge there.
While I believe that Soti wins this fight more often than not, I dont think he takes it 2 out of 3 times as the current odds indicate. J-Lau has way more than a punchers chance at pulling out this W. DEFINITE live dog here that may be worth a small play.
Tyson Griffin (-210) v. Nik Lentz (+175)
I like a play on Griffin here. The human blanket (Lentz) is not going to be able to 1 punch KO Griffin. Lentz relies on 1 strategy only. Takedown, Lay, and Pray. Griffin's excellent wrestling should be able to nullify Lentz's takedowns, and as the fight goes on you can count on Griffin to punish Lentz's legs with those vicious leg kicks which is only going to slowdown Lentz's takedown attempts even further.
I think some people are downplaying Griffin a tad here because of his 2 loss skid. The thing is, he lost to 2 very good fighters. Evan Dunham is going to fight for a strap sooner or later, and in the Gomi fight he just ran into a punch from an absolutely vicious 1 punch KO striker. If Griffin doesnt have to worry bout that 1 punch KO, I think he is going to be able to dominate this fight and ride it out to a nice 3 round decision.
Quick notes:
I like to root for Mark Munoz, but in terms of betting I am thinking about a small play on Simpson @ +135. Both have impeccable wrestling credentials, so I expect this fight to stay on the feet. Both fighters have somewhat rudimentary technical standup. I think Simpson has a pretty good chin and will be able to withstand anything but a solid punch that lands right on the button. Only reason why I would bet on Simpson is because I think this is about as fair of a matchup as there is on the card, so to get any kind of odds (even if it is just .35) is value.
I have no idea who Maiquel Falcao is, but according to his Sherdog bio he is a Chute Boxe product and 21 of his 25 wins have come via KO or TKO. Another brutal striker out of Brazil? If Falcao is a one trick pony, he could be in trouble. Harris's takedowns/slams are explosive. If he can get his arms around Falcao and throw him to the mat, it could end up being a quick night. Not sure I know enough to make a play here, but I'm hoping there is an MMA expert in this thread who might be able to give some extra advice? I don't know... -270 seems like a decent price on a solid up and coming fighter (Harris) that the UFC is trying to push into the limelight. Especially considering the fact that they are bringing in some new blood for him to fight.
