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Wow Rook
Had the over too but not a parlay waiting on it lol
Nice job
Had the over too but not a parlay waiting on it lol
Nice job
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Romo the God
Still eerie how Vegas knows the perfect number for O/U's man
Wow Rook
Had the over too but not a parlay waiting on it lol
Nice job
Hit on 4 out of 5 games, not bad at all. Hit on Miami, GB, Jets, Chiefs. Seattle lost for me.
Someone please explain what I'm missing on this Eagles/Falcons line. Eagles -3. I don't get it. I know oddsmakers are smart but I'm confused. Feel like Philly is gonna smoke them. Thinking about putting decent cash in philly. Thoughts anyone???
First, just look at yesterday and all the home dogs that were actually good teams or teams more evenly matched. Buffalo and the Rams, specifically. If the line looks fishy for a team that you feel should roll and their a road favorite, that tells you something is up. As I mentioned yesterday, Vegas knows this and they know the heavy action they can get with a team like the Eagles. It also needs to be taken into consideration that Monday Night lines can be skewed a bit too as it's the most heaviest bet game of the week. Public will chase for a win if they got hit hard during the weekend. Vegas knows its stuff on most games, but if any that they need to get right, it's Monday Night games.
To the actual game itself -- These teams are fairly similar. Falcons looked bad last year, but their offense was still a high producing unit. They can score points and they have a great deal of talent to do it against any team. They're at home. Crowd will be rocking. First game of the season, at home, on MNF. I got both of these teams in the playoffs, but one of them has to lose and since I see these teams as being closer to equal right now than anything, I do not want to touch this game. The team who wins could do so by 7 or by 3, but regardless, it could come down to who has the ball last and that's not a promising bet if the spread is sitting at low number like 3.
I have a few thoughts on the other game tonight and I'll post that a bit later.
Thanks for the input and i agree with everything u said. I still think philly got it. I think i will still bet philly….Fingers crossed.First, just look at yesterday and all the home dogs that were actually good teams or teams more evenly matched. Buffalo and the Rams, specifically. If the line looks fishy for a team that you feel should roll and their a road favorite, that tells you something is up. As I mentioned yesterday, Vegas knows this and they know the heavy action they can get with a team like the Eagles. It also needs to be taken into consideration that Monday Night lines can be skewed a bit too as it's the most heaviest bet game of the week. Public will chase for a win if they got hit hard during the weekend. Vegas knows its stuff on most games, but if any that they need to get right, it's Monday Night games.
To the actual game itself -- These teams are fairly similar. Falcons looked bad last year, but their offense was still a high producing unit. They can score points and they have a great deal of talent to do it against any team. They're at home. Crowd will be rocking. First game of the season, at home, on MNF. I got both of these teams in the playoffs, but one of them has to lose and since I see these teams as being closer to equal right now than anything, I do not want to touch this game. The team who wins could do so by 7 or by 3, but regardless, it could come down to who has the ball last and that's not a promising bet if the spread is sitting at low number like 3.
I have a few thoughts on the other game tonight and I'll post that a bit later.
Im also thinking a split with 2 soft lines and pub action on both road favs. No major leans for nfl....will concentrate on mlb today.
What do you think about the Rays against CC? I'm leaning towards TB.
Let me get this in here right quick before the day gets away from me...
I'll preface this by saying I'm looking at this in the most objective way I can, being that I'm a Vikings fan. What I would say is that I do know this team pretty well, so that can be looked at as an advantage. My roommate is also a Niners fan, so...we talk.
When I first looked at this game for capping, I figured I needed to address the unknown. There are more than one. The biggest, of course, being the transformation of the 49ers roster. There is so much we do not know about how this bunch of guys really play together. Specifically, on defense. We can guess or assume, but we don't know. The assumption by most is they won't be nearly as good. I agree to a point, as you're not going to lose all those guys and get better or anything, but I'm also not going to sit here and say they're incapable of playing great football. The thing I'm coupling my idea of how this game goes is the fact that Minnesota is significantly better at the skill positions on offense. There's no question. I won't spend time on the additions and what not, you know that, but I'm bringing it up, because I think the edge goes to Minnesota for sure. My pause for caution is that the Vikings have lost two starting lineman, one of which was recent, and it levels out to some degree the full potential of what this Vikings offense can really do. Do they give up a key 3rd down sack? Less running room for AP? You have to factor it in as happening, you just don't know when it will. To sum up: I think Minnesota can and will score, but how much they score all depends on the balancing of those lineman being out with how the Niner defense plays collectively for the first real time after losing so many key contributors.
If you want an AP-factor mentioned, I would say it helps a lot, but by help I don't mean he's running for 200 yards or anything. Maybe, but there's a rust factor to consider and his first and only game last season after not playing one down in preseason, he looked...Ok. It was against a tough Lions D, but it's something to consider as not only did he miss just about all of last year, but he didn't see any time in the preseason once again. He will be running angry, but running really hard and getting back that "feel" can be two different things. Give AP the benefit of the doubt on that one if you want, but just make sure you consider it.
Other side of the ball: Minnesota's defense greatly improved last year and they should continue to excel this year. Honestly, I think they can smother SF's offense. My concern is Kaepernick. If they restrict him to the pocket, it's a wrap. Easier said than done though and if he gets a running lane, he will hurt the Vikings. I'm factoring in that he will slip through the cracks a few times, which keeps them in the game. I also think Hyde can have a good game. I won't say great, but he can do enough to move the chains. He won't be able to do it all though, which is where Kaepernick comes into play. If you think he gets loose more often than not, then maybe you should roll with SF. I'm trusting Zimmer's defensive mind and the speed and talent Minnesota has that can limit Kaep's ability to dominate on the ground. I think Rhodes locks up whomever he's on. LOCKS UP! Since about the midway point of last year, he has looked like a top cover corner in the NFL. Harrison Smith is an underrated safety due to lack of publicity, but he's one of the best in the NFL as well. Anthony Barr is more than athletic enough to cover a TE, so I wouldn't bank on that either.
Be aware that Cordarelle Patterson can take one to the house on any given return and it could be a difference. Sherels had one of the better YPR on punt returns as well.
My pick: Minnesota...But not against the spread. Here's why I'm going ML. I haven't looked today, but when I locked in last night the number was Minnesota -2. Weird number and as I mentioned up top about Vegas really paying attention for these MNF games to win back their action, it looks like they did their homework. Blair Walsh has struggled, to say the least. He missed some FG's, but more concerning, he missed PAT's. If there's a theme from this write-up it's that I'm leveraging my idea that Minnesota could dominate this game with detailed factors that could change a landscape of a game. This is one thing to consider. I'll gladly take reduced juice at -130 for Minny to win straight up, as I think they do win, but also because I can see Blair missing a PAT that sets what I think will be a close game and that sees the Vikings winning by exactly 2. Can't say that definitively, but yes...It's something to think about.
The rest is up to what your own ideas and instincts are when you address the unkowns I mentioned and how much weight you give your opinion on it. Good luck all...
Vikings -130
Book it!
Got Vikes at +4 & +135ML. Need this one
where u get this?Got Vikes at +4 & +135ML. Need this one
where u get this?