***$$$-NT Sportsbook Thread vol.2- Props props props props props props... EVERYBODY!

Im not good handicapping college football but the only game I like sat is Bama ML +110..Georgia never shows up for big games under Richt and their offense plays right into Alabama's defensive strength with their front 7. I also don't buy into Grayson Lambert's recent success and think he will look more like he did at UVA but then again I suck at cfb so idk
 
Kepp said:
Im not good handicapping college football but the only game I like sat is Bama ML +110..Georgia never shows up for big games under Richt and their offense plays right into Alabama's defensive strength with their front 7. I also don't buy into Grayson Lambert's recent success and think he will look more like he did at UVA but then again I suck at cfb so idk
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Heard the UVA angle a few times. More along the lines of him being unable to beat out Matt Johns and we've seen Johns really stink it up, therefore, Lambert will eventually show that he sucks too...It does interest me. I think Bama is the side to be on, but I don't know if I want to bet it.
 
DeadsetAce said:
anyone looking at Texas Tech to cover versus Baylor?
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I don't trust TT in conference play even though they kept last weeks game close. TCU hasn't even looked that good this season so I can't give TT that much credit for keeping it close last week. 

all my 3:30pm plays are dependent on how my noon bets look but I have this game down as Baylor or no play

not sure if it'll make my cut or not as of now 
 
not super crazy on trends, but this def. caught my eye.

When Baylor team played as a Home team - Last 4 years - Playing on Saturday - Coming off a Home win: 11-0 ATS
 
Anybody like tonight's CFB slate?

I have a hard time debating on what I want to play in the Memphis game between the Memphis spread and the TT o35. I know Memphis defense has been pretty bad lately the last two weeks, but they were also playing some good offenses:

BG ranked #41 in PPG, #6 in YPG
CIN ranked #36 in PPG, #11 in YPG

Then, you look at USF and they are 136th in PPG, 152nd in YPG :lol: . I think Memphis finds a way to take care of business and cover the spread. Memphis carries the longest active streak among FBS programs with at least 40 points per game (six straight going back to 2014). USF does run the ball a lot and are 49th in rushing yards per game this season. They also don't fumble. However, USF couldn't even stop a Maryland passing attack that's not that great.

I don't want to over analyze it and talk myself out of it so.....


Memphis -8 -115
 
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My only concern with Memphis is that look ahead angle. They have Ole Miss in the hole, with a bye on deck. I don't know much aobut their mindset and we haven't seen a Memphis team be this good...ever, so we don't know how they handle these situations. And since they haven't been in this kind of spot before, it worries me. I'm trying to go back to my playing days and I feel like if I was in this situation, I'd just want to get a W and get out, no matter the score. Sure you want the blowout, but I'm looking towards the prep for Ole Miss with a weekend off in between. USF can run the ball and they don't turn it over?...They can probably grind this out to be close at the end. Memphis probably wins by 10 or 7. Knowing which one they land on is important for us..:lol:

I'll come back after I look more into it and maybe the other games tonight and post my plays, but I like how you don't want to over-analyze. That's important and it's something that traps me sometimes. We'll see.
 
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Something of not for Temple/Charlotte is that the rain will start just after gametime according to TWC and gets heavy towards 10pm, when the game will be finishing. Not sure what that means yet, but something to keep in mind.
 
651akathePaul said:
My only concern with Memphis is that look ahead angle. They have Ole Miss in the hole, with a bye on deck. I don't know much aobut their mindset and we haven't seen a Memphis team be this good...ever, so we don't know how they handle these situations. And since they haven't been in this kind of spot before, it worries me. I'm trying to go back to my playing days and I feel like if I was in this situation, I'd just want to get a W and get out, no matter the score. Sure you want the blowout, but I'm looking towards the prep for Ole Miss with a weekend off in between. USF can run the ball and they don't turn it over?...They can probably grind this out to be close at the end. Memphis probably wins by 10 or 7. Knowing which one they land on is important for us..:lol:

I'll come back after I look more into it and maybe the other games tonight and post my plays, but I like how you don't want to over-analyze. That's important and it's something that traps me sometimes. We'll see.
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I thought about this angle as well. I honestly think the bye week helps because it keeps their focus on getting things done this week, so they can focus on the bigger game. I also think their defense will look to make a statement tonight with how they've been lit up the last two weeks and they were considered a great defense last season. They are saying all the right things before the game, but you really won't know their mindset as a team until they step on the field like you said. Line is down to 7.5 and the total is down to 58.5. I'll be interested to see what it is closer to game time.

I wish the ML wasn't -285. If it was at -200, I would definitely just play that to be safe. :lol:
 
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Found out this is USF's homecoming game too. The home team should be pretty hype not to mention 12 days off as well.


Now, I'm overthinking. :rofl:
 
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:lol:


I think I'm rolling with USF. I think they can control the game with their pace. Memphis can score at will, but if USF can ground out long drives on the ground then they shouldn't have problems scoring either, once they tire Memphis' defense.



Locked in plays for tonight:

USF +7
Temple -20
UCONN +14.5
 
why do u guys like USF, line movement?


Memph should blow the doors off em, how is USF going to keep up w/ the offense?

...i think the linesmakers trying to get some $ in on USF, no way some1 put big $ to move the line that much.
 
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FR3SH like UgHH said:
why do u guys like USF, line movement?


Memph should blow the doors off em, how is USF going to keep up w/ the offense?

...i think the linesmakers trying to get some $ in on USF, no way some1 put big $ to move the line that much.
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If they were trying to get USF money they would've left line at 12.5 or whatever it started at. The line movement favors Memphis and your thought on Memphis where they "should blow the doors off" is probably what most people are thinking...So why the line movement in their favor?

I think USF's run game and the fact that they don't turn the ball over can keep the ball in their hands and limit the damage that Memphis can do. Keep them out of rhythm by keeping them off the field and keeping an already bad defense on the field to the point of exhaustion.
 
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I think they are trying to get money on USF as well based on what happened last night. Line is basically the same as it was last night in the CIN/MIA game when the public was on MIA. I'm sure the majority of the people that bet on MIA know this and are thinking the same thing tonight.

My mind is still telling me to take Memphis for some reason and I may cut it short and take them -4 1H. Still haven't locked yet, though. I'm going to wait until about 10 minutes before game time to see if there is anymore shift.

The Tigers run defense is pretty good (ranked #34 in opponents rushing YPG), its their secondary defense that's up and down. This is why I believe they can get a big enough gap to cover the spread. I was definitely on the dog last night in Cincy, but its hard for me to back USF tonight. I'll either play Memphis or just stay away.
 
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