been awhile since i peeked into this thread, or NT for that matter.
Baseball been real good for me so far. Its always easy to talk a big game after the fact, but this is probably the best run to start a season I have ever gone on. 5-0 thus far. Hell I hardly ever go 2-0.
UFC 112 is right around the corner fellas. The lines have been hoppin considerably, so hopefully some of you saavy MMA bettors got in earlier. Hopefully A Silva and BJ dont lose cause I have most of my parlays going through them. Here are my pending plays so far.
$20.00 $62.98 Pending 6 Team Parlay
Pending 4/10/10 2:30pm UFC Fighting 1102 Anderson Silva -850 vs Demian Maia
Pending 4/10/10 1:00pm UFC Fighting 1202 BJ Penn -700* vs Frankie Edgar
Pending 4/10/10 1:00pm UFC Fighting 1301 Matt Hughes -425* vs Renzo Gracie
Pending 4/10/10 12:00pm UFC Fighting 1602 Phil Davis -495* vs Alexander Gustafsson
Pending 4/10/10 10:50am UFC Fighting 1802 Rick Story -170* vs Nick Osipczak
Pending 4/10/10 10:00am UFC Fighting 2002 Matt Veach -265* vs Paul Kelly
$25.00 $30.00 Pending 4/10/10 1:00pm UFC Fighting 1501 Rafael dos Anjos +120* vs Terry Etim
$50.00 $87.40 Pending 4 Team Parlay
Pending 4/10/10 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1102 Anderson Silva -700 vs Demian Maia
Pending 4/10/10 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1202 BJ Penn -700* vs Frankie Edgar
Pending 4/10/10 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1301 Matt Hughes -440* vs Renzo Gracie
Pending 4/10/10 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1402 Mark Munoz -140* vs Kendall Grove
$100.00 $66.67 Pending 4/10/10 1:00pm UFC Fighting 1402 Mark Munoz -150* vs Kendall Grove
$150.00 $149.20 Pending 4 Team Parlay
Win 3/27/10 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1102 Georges St-Pierre -800* vs Dan Hardy
Win 3/31/10 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1102 Kenny Florian -280* vs Takanori Gomi
Pending 4/10/10 1:00pm UFC Fighting 1102 Anderson Silva -620 vs Demian Maia
Pending 4/10/10 1:00pm UFC Fighting 1202 BJ Penn -800* vs Frankie Edgar
The bets were placed at different times, thus the different odds booked.
My quick analysis of potential value.
Mark Munoz I felt had the best value but it looks like a lot of early bettors have hit that line and pushed it up a bit. It touched -175 earlier today but seems to have settled back at the -170 range. At -150 I really think it was a good bet. The line literally jumped from -140 to -150 when I was bookin that bet last week. I loved it at -140, I like it at -150, I think its OK at best at -170. If any of you guys can get Munoz at -150 range I would recommend that play. Munoz should be able to take Grove down at will with his superior wrestling. Since Munoz has been at Team Blackhouse (Nog brothers, A Silva, Machida) I think that his sub defense had to have gotten better. I'm hoping and counting on Munoz taking this fight to the ground, unleashing some vicious ground and pound while avoiding the sub, and either finishing the fight via GnP or riding it out to a Unanimous Decision.
I've been debating the Dos Anjos v. Etim figth with my betting partner for awhile now and we cant seem to come to an agreement. I'm not sold on Etim's standup, and I think Dos Anjos' BJJ is good enough to cancel out Etim. What I am counting on here is Dos Anjos' better wrestling, and ability to get the TD and take top position and ride it to a decision victory. This is pretty much a pickem fight (in my opinion) and if youre getting some odds (+120 for me) there is enough to make a small play.
For you greedy degens out there, some people are liking Mustapha Al Turk for a small play. I honestly dont know much about Madsen except that he is somewhat of an undersized HW. I dont know if he warrants a -300 line though. Madsen will probably win, but who knows... anything can happen.
