How Phil Jackson and the Knicks can avoid disaster
Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Staff Writer
Let's face it, some elements of ESPN's Summer Forecast are more subjective than others. Today's reveal of the balloting for this season's
Team Turmoil reflects the most subjective of the different categories for which we vote. In effect, we are trying to psychoanalyze an entire organization based on events that may or may not happen. But it's a lot of fun and in all seriousness, the voting says a lot about how teams are perceived entering a new season.
Which team will face the greatest degree of unwanted upheaval in the months to come? There are three primary elements that ensure a high ranking in the turmoil standings: 1. Teams that play in the biggest markets with added exposure to magnify any missteps. 2. A roster and/or a coaching staff comprised of volatile personalities. 3. A high payroll combined with low expectations.
It's a testament to the interesting mix of personalities the Sacramento Kings have brought together that they finished as the runaway leader in this year's turmoil forecast. After all, the Kings play in a small market and their just-over-the-cap payroll ranks in the bottom third of the league. And expectations are so low that I think Sacramento has an excellent chance to beat its forecast of 31 wins. But when you bring in Rajon Rondo to run alongside DeMarcus Cousins and ask them to play for a give-no-quarter Hall of Fame coach in George Karl, well, it's a sports writer's dream. If it works, it's a great story. If it doesn't work, it's still a great story.
It's the second team on the list that strikes me as the most interesting, however. The New York Knicks are always intriguing, though I've often been grateful to be based in the Midwest when reading of their travails over the decades. And make no mistake, save for the Pat Riley era and an exhilarating yet too-brief surge by the Bernard King-Hubie Brown teams, it's been more or less constant turmoil in Gotham since New York last won the NBA title in 1973. Entering the second season of Phil Jackson's rebuild, I suspect we're going to learn a lot about whether Jackson is the right guy to finally get the Knicks over the hump.
On paper, the Knicks would look like they are headed for the upper reaches of the 2016 draft -- except
they won't actually have a first-rounder next season. Their pick is a casualty of a dizzying array of trades over the years that go back to when Carmelo Anthony was originally acquired by New York, and later Andrea Bargnani was brought in from Toronto. If New York improves on the court this season, the missing pick won't be a major story line. But if the Knicks are as bad as projected -- the forecast had them at 25 wins -- then the absence of a premium pick will hurt in all the wrong places.
The loss of that pick isn't on Jackson, as the aforementioned deals went down before he took over. What is on Jackson is the bulk of this year's roster. As Charley Rosen pointed out in his
mesmerizing series of chats with Jackson, 13 of the 17 players the Knicks took to camp last season are gone. Jackson will be overseeing a roster almost entirely of his construction, playing a system he insists upon that is directed by a coach in Derek Fisher who had zero experience when hired.
Phil Jackson's roster moves need to push New York into playoff contention to avoid disaster in 2015-16.
No one, including Jackson, would declare the 2015-16 Knicks a finished product. Nevertheless, some forward progress needs to be shown, and not the on-paper progress that 25 wins would represent after last season's franchise-record 65 losses. This has been stated many times, but it's important to remember when framing the Knicks' situation: Jackson is three weeks shy of his 70th birthday and his star player -- coming off of injury -- will be nearly 32 by the end of next season. While Jackson has plenty of time for a methodical rebuild of the Knicks and the establishing of a template of basketball operations that can be sustained after he retires, he has limited time to turn things around while Anthony remains a star-level player.
That turnaround won't be completed this season. Yet you can argue that the essential next-step to accelerate the process has to be preceded by a surprising showing in 2015-16. Because while the Knicks should be able to pursue an
elite-level player in 2016 free agency, most teams around the league will be able to do the same given the spike in the salary cap. If this season is as bad as last season, how would Jackson entice the likes of Kevin Durant to take the team's money? Meanwhile, Anthony's clock keeps ticking, and the draft will come and go without the Knicks adding an impact talent.
Even a run at .500 and a playoff spot in the East would not guarantee the Knicks a splash addition next summer. But as we saw in July when Greg Monroe -- a possible Knicks target -- landed in small market Milwaukee, the perception of forward momentum has cachet in the marketplace. That is what the Knicks are playing for this season. In that light, the pessimistic forecasts might not be a bad thing. My system currently has the Knicks at 23 wins. The forecast was at 25. An estimate compiled from Real plus-minus (RPM) is for just 22. I've seen one other, more optimistic projection-based forecast for 30 wins.
None of those outcomes would move the needle. but the low expectations are an opportunity. If the Knicks were expected to be .500 and did so, we'd all yawn. But now if New York makes a playoff run, we'll be applauding Jackson's moves from coast to coast, and entering the summer with eager anticipation.
We've got a few weeks to dissect what has to happen on the court for the Knicks to outperform our preseason analysis. The nutshell of all that work will be that New York has to be what Jackson's teams have often been: A whole that far exceeds the sum of its parts. As just as a quick thought experiment to illustrate my point,
pull up the roster of the 2000-01 Los Angeles Lakers. Now remove Kobe Bryant and Shaquille O'Neal from the list. That team was the second edition of a team that won three straight championships. It's the ability of the triangle offense to extract efficient performance from role players that has set Jackson's teams apart, even if those players haven't worked elsewhere.
Of course, the historic greatness of Jackson's elite players hasn't hurt. As Jackson searches for another one of those players and hopes that Anthony can hang on at something close to that level, we'll bide our time this season by following New York's role players. Robin Lopez, Kyle O'Quinn, Kristaps Porzingis, Langston Galloway, Jose Calderon, Jerian Grant, Derrick Williams, Lou Amundson, Arron Afflalo and Lance Thomas are all Jackson guys. Many of them have replacement-level forecasts, or worse. Yet, if they complement Anthony and the Knicks become competitive, then we'll know Jackson has a bead on getting this executive thing figured out.
If the Knicks are as bad as last season? That's when the turmoil begins.