We're a quarter of the way through the NBA season and already our rookie list has a neat separation between potential Rookie of the Year candidates and everyone else. Yes, the 2010 draft class has displayed exactly what most experts suggested it would -- few NBA stars and even fewer guys ready to play big roles right now.
Still, plenty of the rookies listed below can be expected to play a decade-plus in the NBA, and some project to be playing major minutes for playoff teams. But make no mistake, up to this point this draft class has produced only three ROY candidates. (
Blake Griffin, the favorite to win the award, came from the 2009 draft class. In addition, three others in our current top 10 aren't from this draft class either.)
Let's take a closer look at the four guys still in the running for ROY and the six that are chasing from far behind:
[h3]Rookie of the Year candidates[/h3]
[h4]ROOKIE 50 RANKINGS[/h4]
We're keeping track of every NBA rook. Here are the latest Top 50 rankings.
| | |
| 1 | Blake Griffin | |
| 2 | Landry Fields | |
| 3 | John Wall | |
| 4 | Derrick Favors | |
| 5 | Gary Forbes | |
| 6 | Gary Neal | |
| 7 | Greg Monroe | |
| 8 | Tiago Splitter | |
| 9 | Wesley Johnson | |
| 10 | DeMarcus Cousins | |
[h2][/h2]
[th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Stock[/th]
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Click here for the complete rankings »
1. Blake Griffin, Clippers
Griffin is still destroying opponents and racking up impressive double-doubles in the process. The last time he didn't register one? Thirteen games ago, when he put up 12 points and eight rebounds in 29 minutes at Indiana on Nov. 18. Sure, no one is truly surprised by this development, as his combination of power, athleticism and energy suggested he'd be a rebounding machine. But few expected him to score the way he has, averaging north of 20 ppg.
Heading into the season, I thought Griffin needed to add two things to his game: a turnaround jumper from the block and a better free throw shot. He's got the first (did you see the spinning turnaround jumper over
Dwight Howard on Sunday?), which gives him a weapon to use as a go-to guy late in the clock. Now he needs to focus on the second. He's averaging over three missed free throws a game (4.4 of 7.7) and shooting 56.8 percent from the line.
2. Landry Fields, Knicks
We all know Fields got off to a hot start, so when his 3-point shooting went south for a while, no one noticed. No matter. His 3-for-16 stretch in November appears to have been just a cold streak. He's made 8-of-19 3s this month, including an important 3-for-5 performance against Denver on Sunday.
The great thing about Fields is his ability to contribute to his team's offensive game without making 3s. For instance, on his cuts to the rim, he uses patience when necessary, slowing down in the paint to give his teammate an extra second to find him. And he is a creative finisher, someone who's practiced tough shots around the rim thousands of times.
Make no mistake, though, about his need to be an effective 3-point shooter. Because he does not have a dribble-drive game that will result in getting to the line a lot, his 3-point game will go a long way toward making him a truly productive and efficient scorer. He has a great set-shot release -- exactly how set shots should be taken, releasing on the way up -- and he's relatively smart about when to take them. He is shooting 34.4 percent from downtown now but is capable of being a 40 percent guy.
Wall
3. John Wall, Wizards
While November was a good month for Wall, December has been a disappointment. And it's not just because his points are down from 17.2 to 14.3 per game. Nor is it just because his assists are down from 9.1 to 8.4 per game. No, the biggest issue is his shot selection, which is the cause for both of those averages dropping and why he's making just 35.9 percent of his field goals in December.
Wall is still dynamite off the dribble, especially in transition, which is why we don't consider 18-foot pull-up jumpers with lots of time on the clock good shots. Forget his mechanics for a moment -- he has improved his release but his foundation is poor -- and focus on his decision-making.
Teams are inviting him to shoot the ball, going under screens and generally giving him room to get off his shot. They'd prefer not to put themselves in jeopardy of him attacking. Wall, however, is very competitive and must be thinking, "I'll show these guys that I can make this." But that's not the best response.
He's making just a third of his shots from 10 feet to the 3-point line (and 33 percent from behind the line). While he does have to continue taking these shots on occasion, especially when the shot clock is winding down, he doesn't have to take as many as he has been. Taking early shots like these robs him of penetration-and-dish plays.
Favors
4. Derrick Favors, Nets
Heading into the season, scouts felt that Favors had lots of upside but very little polish. Breaking down his game on tape reveals that he has a lot more polish than expected.
Some of it is obvious, like when he rebounds athletically and grabs the ball above his head, then leaves the ball high on the put back. Or when he has a tough finishing angle on the side of the rim, yet deftly gets the ball past his defender by going under, not over, his opponent's hands and uses the lower part of the backboard to kiss the ball into the net.
Or even when he makes a catch in the short corner and makes his move to the rim with perfect footwork, like he did against the Lakers, something that is not easy to do. (Realizing that
Pau Gasol was going to come over to help is the next step in his evolution; Gasol blocked this attempt easily.)
Look closer and you'll see a guy who sets his man up by acting like he's going to pop up from his spot near the blocks before suddenly jumping to the rim to dunk a quick lob pass. Best of all, I've seen him use his arms to make a subtle push, helping his man up the floor to create an easier angle for him to catch the lob, and not get called for the foul. He's learning the tricks of the trade, and he's still only a teenager.
[h3]Rest of the top 10[/h3]
Forbes
5. Gary Forbes, Nuggets
Having Forbes this high is evidence of how weak the class has played to this point. He's getting only 13 minutes a game in Denver, but the rookies below him aren't playing a lot more or much better. Still, to Forbes' credit, he is making key contributions on a playoff contender, both as a shooter and a driver/finisher.
Watch him play and you'll see "veteran" written all over him. He'll use a casual dribble to lull his defender to sleep before banging out a hard drive to the rim. He'll mix in floaters in the lane and left-hand extension shots. And he'll make hard transition pushes through traffic to the basket. It's amazing that 29 other teams had the chance to offer him a training camp invite and chose not to.
Factor in his 52.4 percent 3-point accuracy and his tough-minded defensive game, and Denver has itself a top-performing rookie without even using a draft pick. His PER is above 17, third among rookies.
Neal
6. Gary Neal, Spurs
Much of what I wrote about Forbes applies here, too. Neal's game screams vet. Many European scouts had been clamoring for a while that he was an NBA player, and they were right. The Spurs are lucky to have him in the rotation.
He's been excellent and consistent from the 3-point line, nailing 40 percent or better in every game except one since Nov. 26. And like Forbes, he also has some weapons in his game beyond his perimeter shooting. He makes half of his shots inside 15 feet that aren't layups, which is an excellent number, and also finishes more than 66 percent of his layups. He is the kind of threat every coach wants and needs opposite an excellent side pick and roll.
Monroe
7. Greg Monroe, Pistons
Monroe still has some major flaws in his game, mainly that he's a below-the-rim player at an age (20) when he should be at or near his athletic peak. Too often he either gets blocked inside or has to change his shot to get it off because he didn't explode high enough.
However, anytime a rookie pulls down 15 rebounds in a game (eight offensive), we have to take notice. And Monroe did just that against Minnesota, which is a top-10 team in defensive rebound rate. In general, he's done well fighting for position next to the rim when shots go up. Oftentimes, he's dead center in front of the rim, probably the best spot to be in on most shot attempts. If he continues this, his numbers will undoubtedly rise.
Splitter
8. Tiago Splitter, Spurs
I'm sure the Spurs wouldn't mind if Splitter was a terrific perimeter shooter and maybe a better overall rebounder, but other than that he's just what the doctor ordered. I love watching him on defense, arms wide and back bent over in an athletic position, feet ready to move. He is completely aware of his help responsibilities and reminds me of
Joakim Noah with his clear interest in stopping not just
his man but
any man on the other team from scoring.
Let me be clear: This is not how every NBA defender thinks, unfortunately.
Add the fact that Splitter can finish in the paint -- he's shooting almost 70 percent near the rim -- and the Spurs have another excellent role player that can get better this season and in the future.
Johnson
9. Wesley Johnson, Timberwolves
Let's face it, to the average fan, Johnson is a great athlete to love. He's sleek, he's bouncy, he has a sweet-looking shot and he's capable of making a highlight play every night. But to the keen eye, there is a lot
not to like about his game. He has horribly poor shot selection most nights, lacks quickness in tight spaces -- partially why he's taken more than twice as many 3s as free throws -- and doesn't have a real idea how to defend perimeter players. It's why his PER is below 10.
However, as someone who has questioned his upside since last winter, I'm saying now that I like him more than I ever have. Here's why: He is a better passer than you'd expect and can actually end up being a good one in a year or two.
Johnson can learn how to avoid bad shots and look for better ones, just like he'll learn how to defend better. But it's hard to teach someone how to make easy passes, and Johnson does that a lot. As many bad shots as he takes, I never get the feeling he's selfish. He'll learn how to play the right way, and when he does, he's going to be a solid player.
Cousins
10. DeMarcus Cousins, Kings
Every time I expect Cousins to make a big jump, he delivers a bad game instead. And then when I expect him to drop, he puts up some nice numbers. So it goes for the big guy. Every game is a chance for him to prove his doubters wrong. However, he should not take those doubts as personally as he does and try to prove himself, at least not while he's on offense.
One of the main problems that reveals itself when watching tape on the Kings is that they have two ball-stoppers -- their last two top-5 picks,
Tyreke Evans and Cousins. But at least Evans has an excuse, thanks to his Rookie of the Year campaign last season.
Cousins is just making it so hard on himself when he catches and waits or dribbles around. He's best with quick moves and hard basket crashes after a teammate shoots. If he watches the same film I did, he will see this clearly and can begin making those adjustments.
