I still think Toby will be a factor even if/when they are down big late in games. If Shorts continues to fight through various injuries during the season, && Henne/Bortles is stuck with a cast full of receivers who the majority of are rookies...their transition to the NFL may be not so seamless. Lewis will still get his share of looks, but we could end up seeing a lot of check downs in garbage time to Gerhart, who'll essentially be an every down back for the Jags, && has shown flashes of ability out of the backfield in terms of the passing game while with the Vikes.
But I think Gerhart's potential value is based on if Jacksonville can build on the second half of last season; yea, they finished 4-12, but each of those four wins came on the back half after an 0-8 start. I'm not saying they'll contend for a playoff spot or even approach .500, but I think they'll be more competitive than people expect them to be this year.
Wouldn't mind drafting him at all if he lasts beyond the 6th or so.