OFFICIAL 2014 FANTASY FOOTBALL THREAD

What you guys think of the draft I just did for one of my money leagues that I got the 1st pick. 12 team, 2 pts/5 catches 1 pt/5 rushes (weird I know, never done it before but one of my boys at work asked me to join the league and that was the scoring they have been using)  Dont like doing them this early because its hard to know whos gonna actually be getting PT when the season starts. But whatever, did it when the commissioner wanted to do it and everyone could be present. Throw out any suggestions for guys I should look to trade for. Im not too happy that Trent is my 2. But if he can get back to Rookie form I think my team should beast. 

Definitely want to get a little better at RB and McCown was an auto pick and is gonna be dropped Monday when waivers clear.
 
fraij da 5 11 said:
Drafted my PPR money league w keepers.. Rate it boys.

Forte 1st
Demaryius 1st - > traded straight up to get Lacy
Roddy 3rd
Fitz 3rd
Jordy 5th (k)
Davonte Freeman 6th
Ty Hilton 7th (k)
Cutler 8th
Rudolph 8th
Terrence West 9th
Jeremy Hill 13th
Manziel 13th
Broncos 14th
Legatron 14th
Ellington 15th (k)
Click to expand...
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#NT Playmakers 2014 league invites have officially been sent!  
 
#2 pick in a 12 team PPR

obviously MCcoy,AP or Charles for my first pick

thinking round 2 grab Julio/Jordy and coming right back around with Julius?

or too soon for Julius?
 
yvespo3 said:
Na, 1st and 7th. I'm 6 spots higher Mwalker and you offered him a 8th
Click to expand...

Hes also moving the second pick n the 4 th rd... Only a dif of a handful of picks... To get shady or charles and still be in great shape in rd 2 to land elite talent
 
Draft picks are actually tradeable in ESPN leagues now? That's gotta be new, right? Pretty cool.
 
Ahh well i wont be makin any moves until we can slot the actual picks in i can have one more looksee

Anyone shoot me offers for #1 ill look em all over when the draft orders set n decide
 
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Question regarding rookies

who do you guys think has the best chance to be relevant in fantasy this year? 
 
I wanted to share this article with you guys since it's something I've talked about in here - fantasy "experts" all saying the same thing and what it all means.

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The Mispricing Manifesto


by J.J. Brazil, Special Contributor
Published, 8/7/14

The scaremongers are at it again. Every year about this time, legions of fantasy football experts on websites other than this one flog the masses with sermons about the importance of “minimizing risk” in drafts by selecting “safe” players. Some will even go so far as to say something like fantasy football, fundamentally, at its core, down to its very essence, is all about minimizing risk. In other words, the message is, if you don’t MINIMIZE RISK, you’re HOSED. Three quick things about this advice: It’s boring. It’s bunk. And most importantly, it’s based on a mystical thing that doesn’t actually exist, this so-called pool of “safe” players.

In psychology, there’s actually a term for this sort of “minimizing risk” business. It’s called a prevention orientation, which is essentially a way of thinking rooted in all that could go awry in any situation. Its opposite is called a promotion orientation, which is grounded in the all that could go awesome school of thought. Turns out there’s a lot of scientific research that shows that taking a promotion approach to work and life is not only more motivating for most people but actually produces better results. A Harvard Business Review article on the topic nails the difference between the two approaches with a headline that says it all – “Do You Play to Win – or to Not Lose?”

As fantasy draft season has arrived, here’s the upshot:

1) Understand that playing to win – a promotion orientation – is not only more fun; it very likely increases your chances of success.
2) Recognize that playing to not lose is all but impossible in fantasy football. By season’s end, preseason rankings will have proven to be way off base, often by a very large margin. The simple quantifiable fact is that each year 40 to 50 percent of the preseason rankings, especially the top 20 at each position, will be flat out wrong. Many players considered “safe” by the fantasy community are anything but.
3) See that playing to win is the kind of approach taken by most entrepreneurs and investors, and it is characterized by the following: steering far away from conventional thinking about what is “safe” and what isn’t, assigning vastly greater weight to future performance than past, and identifying investments that possess underlying and unrealized value (ie., mispricings). Or, for fantasy purposes, mispriced players and players who are primed to outperform their average draft position.
4) So...snag as many mispriced players as you can, round after round.
5) Yield zero ground to the critics and killjoys and sermonizers.

Granted, this all-in approach isn’t for everyone but pursuing a draft and a season like this is a blast – and it almost always pays dividends. If you snapped up players like Eddie Lacy, Giovani Bernard, Fred Jackson, Knowshon Moreno, Julius Thomas, Jordy Nelson and Antonio Brown in fantasy drafts last year, you probably got them at a discount relative to their worth, and you already know the value of the mispricing factor.

With each passing year, more attention is given to how off the mark preseason rankings will look come the end of the season, but too many in the fantasy community still imagine there’s “safety” in making choices based on rankings. In addition, with fantasy information being so abundant, winning a fantasy title is tougher than ever. Given the growth in the fantasy industry, it’s hard to get an edge as far as information and insight. Generally speaking, even casual fantasy players today can draft and field competitive teams. And so taking risks goes with the territory if you want to win. We’re not talking about a gamble, which turns on chance and chance alone, like a lottery. But a risk, something shaped by knowledge, experience, analysis and instinct. Precisely the kinds of risks embraced by the world’s most admired investors and entrepreneurs. Prepare better than the rest of your league and you earn the right to trust your gut. Read. Study. Analyze. Then, draft with fun and confidence. Remember, it’s about drafting like a jewel thief, not a bookkeeper.

Preseason rankings remain a critical preparation tool – and no one outguns John Hansen and his crew at Fantasy Guru, whom I’ve relied every year since the mid-‘90s.

But in 2013, just 34 of the top 60 players ranked by most preseason publications in the top 20 at QB, RB and WR, actually finished there (top 20 at each of the three positions). In 2012, the number was 41, which was better than most years, actually. But in 2011, that number was 36. In 2010, 35.

Last year, in 2013, if you invested in the likes of Arian Foster, Ray Rice, Doug Martin, CJ Spiller, Steven Jackson, Trent Richardson, Stevan Ridley, David Wilson, Wes Welker, Victor Cruz, Danny Amendola, Reggie Wayne, Steve Smith, and RG3, you know this better than most. The previous year, in 2012, the costly bust list included popular picks like Darren McFadden, Chris Johnson, MJD, DeMarco Murray, Larry Fitzgerald, Mike Wallace, Ryan Mathews, Greg Jennings, Fred Jackson, Michael Turner and Hakeem Nicks.

What this also means of course is that, every season, many players who are not among the consensus top picks in the preseason bust into that list at season’s end.

Go as far back as you wish; this is the case every season because, the truth is, it isn’t easy to rank fantasy players. Numerous factors cannot be accounted for, injuries being the biggest. Plus, most preseason rankings are way too biased by past performance.

A player’s preseason ranking is an important consideration, but it’s only going to be realized 40 to 50 percent of the time. If you lean too heavily on cheat sheet rankings during your draft preparation and execution on draft day, you are virtually disqualifying yourself from doing what is necessary to build a winning roster.

Every year top fantasy performers rise from the lower tiers of preseason rankings and, if you look closely, these players possess certain characteristics. It loops back to the idea of yet-unrealized value. Breakout players almost always materialize from the wave of young talented players who are poised to get increased opportunity, especially when it’s in an offensive system and scheme tailored to their skills, and especially if it’s a quality team and program. Another consistent group of breakout players are talented veterans whose situation is suddenly improved, usually by the addition of a key newcomer or a change of scenery. You can see many examples of both of these categories in the charts above. It’s an alignment of talent and opportunity, scheme and quality.

So, when looking to pump out a list of mispriced players, look hard at:

• New players or young, yet unproven players in offensive schemes that play to their strengths
• Talented players joining quality offenses or teams with elite QBs
• Veteran talents getting enhanced roles or new and improved settings
• Extraordinary talents coming off injury in otherwise strong situations
• Intangibles, most notably work ethic and competitiveness
• Indisputably talented players you’re convinced have not had their best season yet

Next, put together a draft plan that puts you in the best position to draft as many of these players as possible, perhaps even taking them a round earlier than they otherwise might go. You’re not hoping these players fall to you. You’re going after them. Outside of a few elites at the very top of the first round of every draft – LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, Calvin Johnson – there are mispriced players at every stage of the draft.

Many if not all of these players are labeled as sleepers or values or “worth watching” or, John Hansen’s “players to target,” but the difference is you’re looking to build a roster filled exclusively with these players and, in many instances, bypassing higher-ranked, consensus picks. Think about how successful investors like John Templeton and Warren Buffett have gone about their business – buying undervalued stocks, often in a bear market, going against the flow while the rest of the world plays it “safe.”

For 2014, at RB, we’re talking about these players, all of whom are positioned to outperform their ranking: Montee Ball, Le’Veon Bell, Giovani Bernard, Andre Ellington, Shane Vereen, Stevan Ridley, Toby Gerhart, Trent Richardson, Fred Jackson, Lamar Miller, CJ Spiller, Terrance West, DeVonta Freeman, Carlos Hyde and Andre Williams.

At WR, undervalued players include: Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Keenan Allen, Pierre Garcon, Victor Cruz, Michael Floyd, Roddy White, Mike Wallace, Jeremy Maclin, Golden Tate, Cordarelle Patterson, Brandin Cooks, Marques Colston, Tavon Austin, Kenny Britt, Markus Wheaton and Kelvin Benjamin.

At TE, this approach prizes players like: Julius Thomas, Jordan Cameron, Kyle Rudolph, Jordan Reed and Ladarius Green

All of the following QBs could very well provide a pathway to a fantasy title as part of a mispricing strategy: Andrew Luck, Matthew Stafford, Colin Kaepernick, Nick Foles, RG3, Tony Romo and Jay Cutler. One note on the QB position: I’m one of those who rarely takes a QB before the 5th or 6th round, and most often in the 8th, but if Aaron Rodgers is available in the 3rd (as the ADP suggests he could be) and I’m feeling filthy about my first two choices, that’d be a hard to resist temptation.

Using the most recent ADP chart on FantasyGuru.com (as of late July), here are some strong starts to realistic draft scenarios that reflect the all-in approach outlined in this article for a 12-team league with standard 2 RB, 2 WR/TE, 1 FLEX roster requirements.

Picking near the top of Round One:

1. LeSean McCoy
2. Jordy Nelson
3. Julius Thomas – TE
4. Shane Vereen
5. Trent Richardson
6. Stevan Ridley
7. Cordarrelle Patterson
8. Tony Romo – QB
9. Brandin Cooks
10. Terrance West
11. Devonta Freeman
12. Markus Wheaton

Picking near the middle of Round One:

1. Calvin Johnson
2. Le’Veon Bell
3. Andre Ellington
4. Shane Vereen
5. Roddy White
6. Mike Wallace
7. Stevan Ridley
8. Kyle Rudolph – TE
9. Tavon Austin
10. Jay Cutler – QB
11. Kenny Britt
12. Josh McCown – QB

Picking near the bottom of Round One:

1. Dez Bryant
2. Montee Ball
3. Andre Ellington
4. Victor Cruz
5. Toby Gerhart
6. Jeremy Maclin
7. Jordan Reed – TE
8. Colin Kaepernick – QB
9. Kelvin Benjamin
10. Fred Jackson
11. Carlos Hyde
12. Markus Wheaton

Here’s the takeaway: if you want to pull out all the stops to try to capture a fantasy title in 2014, use the well-tuned practices that the Bill Belichicks of the investment world use to correctly price future opportunities and aggressively pounce on up those players who are positioned to perform better than the masses and risk-averse experts predict.

Maybe the toughest part about approaching a fantasy draft like this is mental. It is believing in the strength of your convictions and being able to pull the trigger on a potentially mispriced gem when “safer” choices are still on the board. It’s the willingness to make investments and take positions that, in the moment, seem like gambles. But here again, there is a world of difference between a risk and a gamble.

At minimum, a mispricing strategy will load your roster with the kinds of players who are great trade bait during the season. Case in point: Last year, during the middle of the season, I needed help at WR/TE after Randall Cobb was lost to injury. I had Dez Bryant and Jordy Nelson, and Nelson was struggling due to the injury to Aaron Rodgers. At RB, I had LeSean McCoy, Reggie Bush, Joique Bell and Eddie Lacy, and I could only start two RBs in the scoring system. At a key moment, I ended up trading Lacy for Vernon Davis and it paved the way to a 12-win season and a title.

As far as this thing called “minimizing risk” during my drafts, the only thing I ever want to minimize is having the wrong answer to the question posed by that Harvard Business Review article: “Do You Play to Win – or to Not Lose?” Why? Very simply, it’s because each and every year fantasy football fortunes rest on precisely this group of players.

J.J. Brazil, a Pulitzer-Prize winning journalist, writer and editor based in Southern California, has been playing fantasy football since 1990.
 
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