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The problem with comparing Chip Kelly to Tom Osborne or even his 2010 self is two-fold. One, recruiting services and the industry is becoming bigger and better at identifying guys. Of course it still happens, but it's harder and harder to hide guys in the internet era. Which is why the BC ratio rings true. Second, this makes the margin for error for Chip finding these under the radar system fits even tighter.
Tom Osborne's success isn't being replicated in 2019. Not with how these bi programs pull kids nationally, how many more programs there are that matter in Texas, etc.
I'd need to see some evidence that services have gotten any better at identifying talent since 2010, and I'm not sure the industry is really any bigger than it was then unless you are counting the football equivalents of stuff like ballislife, which aren't exactly hyping up diamonds in the rough. 247 absorbed Scout, and IIRC ESPN laid off a good chunk of it's recruiting staff last year.
Things have certainly gotten better since the Tom Lemming/Parade AA days, but I think the services are the best they are going to be and peaked a while ago as soon as we entered the internet/message board era, which overlapped with Chip's run at UO.
I don't disagree tho with the margin of error being extremely tight.