Flailing Heat have one very big problem
I’m usually the guy preaching calm, but you can’t deny it now: The Heat are struggling. A five-game losing streak might not be important in the long run, but this is no longer the product of bad luck or randomness. The Heat’s level of play has declined.
They’ve dropped to sixth in both points scored per possession and points allowed per possession after threatening for most of the season to join a small group of clubs to finish in the top three in both.
Orlando, San Antonio and now Portland have shown that smart, patient teams can find good perimeter looks — at least right now, in early March — against Miami’s aggressive rotating defense. The Heat
aren’t forcing turnovers at nearly the rate we may have expected early in the season, and that of course limits their ability to get out in transition, where they are the second most efficient scoring team in the league, according to the stat-tracking service Synergy Sports.
The Heat, as of today, are on pace to win 55 games, just eight more than they won last season with Dwyane Wade, Udonis Haslem, a mildly effective Jermaine O’Neal and spare parts.
The Heat have problems.
Chris Bosh says he wants the ball down low more. Dwyane Wade wants the ball more late in games and took issue with Erik Spoelstra’s rotations after Tuesday’s home loss to the Blazers.
Those rotations reveal what is the fundamental problem in Miami: the lack of a second big man Spoelstra feels he can trust. Parse the data all you want, but I keep coming back to that particular roster limitation. Miami’s best backups (Mike Miller and James Jones) play the same positions as their two best players, and the Heat have been unable to get consistent minutes from
six big men who sit on their bench every game.
That problem has crystallized in the last week. Before about a week ago, Miami’s small lineups, featuring LeBron James as the power forward, were a change-of-pace thing Spoelstra broke out in small doses — typically at the end of the first and third quarters, when James plays alongside several bench guys while Wade and Bosh rest.
But over the last week, this has been Miami’s go-to lineup for long and crucial stretches. Some of that is likely due to the makeup of Miami’s most recent opponents; the Spurs and Blazers love to use small-$%$ lineups, inviting Miami to do the same. But Miami used James at power forward for nearly the entire fourth quarter Sunday against the Bulls, even as Chicago kept two true big men on the floor for all but the final 15 seconds of that quarter. The lack of size came back to bite Miami in that game in small ways. Luol Deng hit a runner over Dwyane Wade when the guy who would normally defend Deng (James) was guarding Joakim Noah, and the Bulls snagged a few key offensive rebounds against Miami’s shorter personnel.
Playing small against big has some advantages for the Heat. It usually forces a big man — Noah on Sunday — to defend a perimeter player, which can create confusion and open looks (see the wide-open three Mike Miller missed late in the fourth quarter). It gives Miami a speed edge. Lineups with James at power forward
blitzed teams over the first 50 games, but as Spoelstra has leaned on them more, the plus/minus numbers for those lineups have regressed.
If you look at
all 12 lineups that feature James at power forward and have logged at least 10 minutes together (excluding one that includes Carlos Arroyo, now in Boston), you get these stats:
Miami’s offense (500 possessions): 110 points per 100 possessions
Miami’s defense (486 possessions): 106 points allowed per 100 possessions
Those are still good numbers, but the scoring margin is down from what these lineups produced early, and it’s about three points worse than Miami’s overall scoring margin per 100 possessions. Also of note: These small lineups that feature both James and Wade — a recent addition, as Spoelstra has gone small more often and for longer periods — have been wildly inconsistent, according to Basketball Value.
The Heat clearly did not envision playing this way when they signed Joel Anthony to a five-year, $18.25 million contract and picked up seemingly every 30something big man willing to work on the cheap. What started as a five-minutes-per-game gimmick has become much more, and when Miami is finishing games with a three-guard lineup that includes Mike Bibby and Mario Chalmers, you know Spoelstra is flailing.
There are plenty of reasons for this flailing. The injury to Udonis Haslem, who is hoping to return at some point this season, has had a devastating trickle-down effect. But Miami’s decision to commit long-term to Anthony and sign a bunch of over-the-hill big guys just hasn’t worked, and it’s a decision
many people questioned immediately – why didn’t Miami get a little more creative in filling out their big-man roster?
The attention today will be, once again, on Bosh’s failures, and on Mike Miller’s shaky shooting and on why James Jones or Eddie House wasn’t in the game down the stretch last night. And those are all issues.
But it’s hard to imagine Miami winning the title over teams like Boston, Chicago and the Lakers if Bosh is the only big man they can count on.
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