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idk bout you guys but I like Weeks, solid player...he can come back up my SS and 2B starters...
Official MLB Offseason Post: Michael Young asks for a trade.
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by proshares,
- Start date
- 20,619
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- Sep 27, 2007
idk bout you guys but I like Weeks, solid player...he can come back up my SS and 2B starters...
- 74,656
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I just like that Weeks waggles his bat like Sheff.
- 74,656
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I just like that Weeks waggles his bat like Sheff.
If you're a baseball geek -- and I am -- you find this kind of number fascinating: Opposing batters posted an OPS of .401 against Tim Stauffer's cut fastball last year, the best production for any pitcher's cut fastball when at-bats were concluded with a cutter.
http:///sports.espn.go.com/espn/gallery/enlargePhoto?id=6076244&story=6076120">http://sports.espn.go.com...076244&...idth=440,height=750,scrollbars=no,noresize'); return false;" href="http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog?name=olney_buster&id=6076120#">[+] Enlarge
Kim Klement/US PresswireLester's cutter cracks the lists.
But attempting to gauge the effectiveness of a particular type of pitch thrown by a particular pitcher through statistics isn't as simple as it might seem, because opposing hitters treat a particular pitch and the ball-strike count as only one piece of a whole. On the first pitch of an at-bat, most hitters won't swing if they see the pitch is a breaking ball; on the other hand, if they're down in the count no balls and two strikes and a breaking pitch is thrown just off the plate, the hitter is at an enormous disadvantage and almost must swing.
It may be that Stauffer used his cutter most effectively when the hitter was buried in the ball-strike count. To say that Stauffer's cutter is as good as that number suggests would a little bit like saying that a bullfighter is undefeated … without noting the enormous damage done to the bull before the bullfighter came into the ring.
If Stauffer only threw a cutter -- as Mariano Rivera does -- then the production against Stauffer's cutter would presumably be greater.
So keep in mind that the statistics tied to specific pitches are not really an isolated view into the quality of a pitch. But they're fun to look at, nonetheless.
From ESPN Stats & Info monster Mark Simon, a sample of numbers generated by particular pitches.
[h4]Fastball Success[/h4]
These AL pitchers had the highest rate of success with two- and four-seam fastballs.
[table][tr][th=""]Pitcher[/th][th=""]BAVG[/th][th=""]SLG[/th][th=""]OBP[/th][th=""]OPS[/th][/tr][tr][td]Thornton, Matt[/td][td].184[/td][td].279[/td][td].249[/td][td].528[/td][/tr][tr][td]Feliz, Neftali[/td][td].190[/td][td].283[/td][td].262[/td][td].545[/td][/tr][tr][td]Oliver, Darren[/td][td].217[/td][td].316[/td][td].262[/td][td].578[/td][/tr][tr][td]Soria, Joakim[/td][td].228[/td][td].327[/td][td].271[/td][td].598[/td][/tr][tr][td]Bard, Daniel[/td][td].210[/td][td].320[/td][td].293[/td][td].614[/td][/tr][tr][td]Breslow, Craig[/td][td].198[/td][td].364[/td][td].278[/td][td].642[/td][/tr][tr][td]Lee, Cliff[/td][td].245[/td][td].382[/td][td].268[/td][td].650[/td][/tr][tr][td]Price, David[/td][td].220[/td][td].343[/td][td].308[/td][td].651[/td][/tr][tr][td]Perez, Chris[/td][td].194[/td][td].344[/td][td].309[/td][td].652[/td][/tr][tr][td]Downs, Scott[/td][td].242[/td][td].352[/td][td].302[/td][td].653[/td][/tr][/table]
[h4]Fastball Success[/h4]
These NL pitchers had the highest rate of success with two- and four-seam fastballs.
[table][tr][th=""]Pitcher[/th][th=""]BAVG[/th][th=""]SLG[/th][th=""]OBP[/th][th=""]OPS[/th][/tr][tr][td]Motte, Jason[/td][td].189[/td][td].283[/td][td].254[/td][td].537[/td][/tr][tr][td]Wood, Travis[/td][td].198[/td][td].282[/td][td].262[/td][td].544[/td][/tr][tr][td]Clippard, Tyler[/td][td].182[/td][td].325[/td][td].272[/td][td].597[/td][/tr][tr][td]Hudson, Daniel[/td][td].209[/td][td].332[/td][td].266[/td][td].598[/td][/tr][tr][td]Wilson, Brian[/td][td].223[/td][td].313[/td][td].287[/td][td].601[/td][/tr][tr][td]Meek, Evan[/td][td].204[/td][td].303[/td][td].301[/td][td].605[/td][/tr][tr][td]Burnett, Sean[/td][td].233[/td][td].318[/td][td].297[/td][td].615[/td][/tr][tr][td]Wagner, Billy[/td][td].205[/td][td].322[/td][td].301[/td][td].623[/td][/tr][tr][td]Johnson, Josh[/td][td].228[/td][td].332[/td][td].292[/td][td].623[/td][/tr][tr][td]Figueroa, Nelson[/td][td].204[/td][td].323[/td][td].304[/td][td].627[/td][/tr][/table]
[h4]Upper-Cut[/h4]
Here are the best AL stats among pitchers who threw at least 100 cutters:
[table][tr][th=""]Pitcher[/th][th=""]BAVG[/th][th=""]SLG[/th][th=""]OBP[/th][th=""]OPS[/th][/tr][tr][td]Lester, Jon[/td][td].166[/td][td].201[/td][td].223[/td][td].424[/td][/tr][tr][td]Rivera, Mariano[/td][td].174[/td][td].234[/td][td].211[/td][td].445[/td][/tr][tr][td]Bailey, Andrew[/td][td].178[/td][td].267[/td][td].191[/td][td].458[/td][/tr][tr][td]Buchholz, Clay[/td][td].207[/td][td].217[/td][td].255[/td][td].472[/td][/tr][tr][td]Westbrook, Jake[/td][td].185[/td][td].222[/td][td].267[/td][td].489[/td][/tr][/table]
[h4]Upper-Cut[/h4]
Here are the best NL stats among pitchers who threw at least 100 cutters:
[table][tr][th=""]Pitcher[/th][th=""]BAVG[/th][th=""]SLG[/th][th=""]OBP[/th][th=""]OPS[/th][/tr][tr][td]Stauffer, Tim[/td][td].120[/td][td].160[/td][td].241[/td][td].401[/td][/tr][tr][td]Lyon, Brandon[/td][td].202[/td][td].232[/td][td].262[/td][td].494[/td][/tr][tr][td]Moehler, Brian[/td][td].176[/td][td].206[/td][td].293[/td][td].499[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mejia, Jenrry[/td][td].120[/td][td].240[/td][td].267[/td][td].507[/td][/tr][tr][td]Ondrusek, Logan[/td][td].205[/td][td].282[/td][td].262[/td][td].544[/td][/tr][/table]
[h4]Curvy[/h4]
Here are the best numbers for curveballs among the NL pitchers who threw 200+ curves.
[table][tr][th=""]Pitcher[/th][th=""]BAVG[/th][th=""]SLG[/th][th=""]OBP[/th][th=""]OPS[/th][/tr][tr][td]Veras, Jose[/td][td].031[/td][td].078[/td][td].127[/td][td].205[/td][/tr][tr][td]McClellan, Kyle[/td][td].092[/td][td].108[/td][td].132[/td][td].240[/td][/tr][tr][td]Hensley, Clay[/td][td].112[/td][td].146[/td][td].141[/td][td].287[/td][/tr][tr][td]McDonald, James[/td][td].140[/td][td].158[/td][td].140[/td][td].298[/td][/tr][tr][td]Sanches, Brian[/td][td].171[/td][td].171[/td][td].200[/td][td].371[/td][/tr][tr][td]Oswalt, Roy[/td][td].133[/td][td].204[/td][td].168[/td][td].372[/td][/tr][tr][td]Carpenter, Chris[/td][td].149[/td][td].202[/td][td].191[/td][td].393[/td][/tr][tr][td]Axford, John[/td][td].136[/td][td].227[/td][td].174[/td][td].401[/td][/tr][tr][td]Myers, Brett[/td][td].173[/td][td].197[/td][td].207[/td][td].404[/td][/tr][tr][td]Garcia, Jaime[/td][td].180[/td][td].180[/td][td].231[/td][td].411[/td][/tr][/table]
[h4]Curvy[/h4]
Here are the best numbers for curveballs among the AL pitchers who threw 200+ curves.
[table][tr][th=""]Pitcher[/th][th=""]BAVG[/th][th=""]SLG[/th][th=""]OBP[/th][th=""]OPS[/th][/tr][tr][td]Anderson, Brett[/td][td].158[/td][td].158[/td][td].158[/td][td].316[/td][/tr][tr][td]Verlander, Justin[/td][td].149[/td][td].188[/td][td].165[/td][td].353[/td][/tr][tr][td]Sabathia, CC[/td][td].149[/td][td].191[/td][td].167[/td][td].358[/td][/tr][tr][td]Romero, Ricky[/td][td].133[/td][td].195[/td][td].170[/td][td].366[/td][/tr][tr][td]Gonzalez, Gio[/td][td].150[/td][td].199[/td][td].187[/td][td].386[/td][/tr][tr][td]Arrieta, Jake[/td][td].186[/td][td].209[/td][td].182[/td][td].391[/td][/tr][tr][td]Wright, Jamey[/td][td].137[/td][td].196[/td][td].196[/td][td].393[/td][/tr][tr][td]Lester, Jon[/td][td].136[/td][td].208[/td][td].185[/td][td].393[/td][/tr][tr][td]Chen, Bruce[/td][td].178[/td][td].205[/td][td].208[/td][td].413[/td][/tr][tr][td]Floyd, Gavin[/td][td].164[/td][td].242[/td][td].176[/td][td].418[/td][/tr][/table]
[h4]The Good Slide[/h4]
Here are the best numbers for sliders, among the AL pitchers who threw many of them.
[table][tr][th=""]Pitcher[/th][th=""]BAVG[/th][th=""]SLG[/th][th=""]OBP[/th][th=""]OPS[/th][/tr][tr][td]Bard, Daniel[/td][td].085[/td][td].136[/td][td].127[/td][td].263[/td][/tr][tr][td]Hochevar, Luke[/td][td].088[/td][td].123[/td][td].148[/td][td].270[/td][/tr][tr][td]Verlander, Justin[/td][td].106[/td][td].152[/td][td].145[/td][td].296[/td][/tr][tr][td]Choate, Randy[/td][td].122[/td][td].163[/td][td].137[/td][td].301[/td][/tr][tr][td]Holland, Derek[/td][td].106[/td][td].149[/td][td].160[/td][td].309[/td][/tr][/table]
[h4]The Good Slide[/h4]
Here are the best numbers for sliders, among the NL pitchers who threw many of them.
[table][tr][th=""]Pitcher[/th][th=""]BAVG[/th][th=""]SLG[/th][th=""]OBP[/th][th=""]OPS[/th][/tr][tr][td]Venters, Jonny[/td][td].074[/td][td].088[/td][td].125[/td][td].213[/td][/tr][tr][td]Wagner, Billy[/td][td].086[/td][td].151[/td][td].104[/td][td].255[/td][/tr][tr][td]Kershaw, Clayton[/td][td].099[/td][td].126[/td][td].138[/td][td].264[/td][/tr][tr][td]Masset, Nicholas[/td][td].098[/td][td].098[/td][td].179[/td][td].277[/td][/tr][tr][td]Hanrahan, Joel[/td][td].103[/td][td].155[/td][td].125[/td][td].280[/td][/tr][/table]
If you're a baseball geek -- and I am -- you find this kind of number fascinating: Opposing batters posted an OPS of .401 against Tim Stauffer's cut fastball last year, the best production for any pitcher's cut fastball when at-bats were concluded with a cutter.
http:///sports.espn.go.com/espn/gallery/enlargePhoto?id=6076244&story=6076120">http://sports.espn.go.com...076244&...idth=440,height=750,scrollbars=no,noresize'); return false;" href="http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog?name=olney_buster&id=6076120#">[+] Enlarge
Kim Klement/US PresswireLester's cutter cracks the lists.
But attempting to gauge the effectiveness of a particular type of pitch thrown by a particular pitcher through statistics isn't as simple as it might seem, because opposing hitters treat a particular pitch and the ball-strike count as only one piece of a whole. On the first pitch of an at-bat, most hitters won't swing if they see the pitch is a breaking ball; on the other hand, if they're down in the count no balls and two strikes and a breaking pitch is thrown just off the plate, the hitter is at an enormous disadvantage and almost must swing.
It may be that Stauffer used his cutter most effectively when the hitter was buried in the ball-strike count. To say that Stauffer's cutter is as good as that number suggests would a little bit like saying that a bullfighter is undefeated … without noting the enormous damage done to the bull before the bullfighter came into the ring.
If Stauffer only threw a cutter -- as Mariano Rivera does -- then the production against Stauffer's cutter would presumably be greater.
So keep in mind that the statistics tied to specific pitches are not really an isolated view into the quality of a pitch. But they're fun to look at, nonetheless.
From ESPN Stats & Info monster Mark Simon, a sample of numbers generated by particular pitches.
[h4]Fastball Success[/h4]
These AL pitchers had the highest rate of success with two- and four-seam fastballs.
[table][tr][th=""]Pitcher[/th][th=""]BAVG[/th][th=""]SLG[/th][th=""]OBP[/th][th=""]OPS[/th][/tr][tr][td]Thornton, Matt[/td][td].184[/td][td].279[/td][td].249[/td][td].528[/td][/tr][tr][td]Feliz, Neftali[/td][td].190[/td][td].283[/td][td].262[/td][td].545[/td][/tr][tr][td]Oliver, Darren[/td][td].217[/td][td].316[/td][td].262[/td][td].578[/td][/tr][tr][td]Soria, Joakim[/td][td].228[/td][td].327[/td][td].271[/td][td].598[/td][/tr][tr][td]Bard, Daniel[/td][td].210[/td][td].320[/td][td].293[/td][td].614[/td][/tr][tr][td]Breslow, Craig[/td][td].198[/td][td].364[/td][td].278[/td][td].642[/td][/tr][tr][td]Lee, Cliff[/td][td].245[/td][td].382[/td][td].268[/td][td].650[/td][/tr][tr][td]Price, David[/td][td].220[/td][td].343[/td][td].308[/td][td].651[/td][/tr][tr][td]Perez, Chris[/td][td].194[/td][td].344[/td][td].309[/td][td].652[/td][/tr][tr][td]Downs, Scott[/td][td].242[/td][td].352[/td][td].302[/td][td].653[/td][/tr][/table]
[h4]Fastball Success[/h4]
These NL pitchers had the highest rate of success with two- and four-seam fastballs.
[table][tr][th=""]Pitcher[/th][th=""]BAVG[/th][th=""]SLG[/th][th=""]OBP[/th][th=""]OPS[/th][/tr][tr][td]Motte, Jason[/td][td].189[/td][td].283[/td][td].254[/td][td].537[/td][/tr][tr][td]Wood, Travis[/td][td].198[/td][td].282[/td][td].262[/td][td].544[/td][/tr][tr][td]Clippard, Tyler[/td][td].182[/td][td].325[/td][td].272[/td][td].597[/td][/tr][tr][td]Hudson, Daniel[/td][td].209[/td][td].332[/td][td].266[/td][td].598[/td][/tr][tr][td]Wilson, Brian[/td][td].223[/td][td].313[/td][td].287[/td][td].601[/td][/tr][tr][td]Meek, Evan[/td][td].204[/td][td].303[/td][td].301[/td][td].605[/td][/tr][tr][td]Burnett, Sean[/td][td].233[/td][td].318[/td][td].297[/td][td].615[/td][/tr][tr][td]Wagner, Billy[/td][td].205[/td][td].322[/td][td].301[/td][td].623[/td][/tr][tr][td]Johnson, Josh[/td][td].228[/td][td].332[/td][td].292[/td][td].623[/td][/tr][tr][td]Figueroa, Nelson[/td][td].204[/td][td].323[/td][td].304[/td][td].627[/td][/tr][/table]
[h4]Upper-Cut[/h4]
Here are the best AL stats among pitchers who threw at least 100 cutters:
[table][tr][th=""]Pitcher[/th][th=""]BAVG[/th][th=""]SLG[/th][th=""]OBP[/th][th=""]OPS[/th][/tr][tr][td]Lester, Jon[/td][td].166[/td][td].201[/td][td].223[/td][td].424[/td][/tr][tr][td]Rivera, Mariano[/td][td].174[/td][td].234[/td][td].211[/td][td].445[/td][/tr][tr][td]Bailey, Andrew[/td][td].178[/td][td].267[/td][td].191[/td][td].458[/td][/tr][tr][td]Buchholz, Clay[/td][td].207[/td][td].217[/td][td].255[/td][td].472[/td][/tr][tr][td]Westbrook, Jake[/td][td].185[/td][td].222[/td][td].267[/td][td].489[/td][/tr][/table]
[h4]Upper-Cut[/h4]
Here are the best NL stats among pitchers who threw at least 100 cutters:
[table][tr][th=""]Pitcher[/th][th=""]BAVG[/th][th=""]SLG[/th][th=""]OBP[/th][th=""]OPS[/th][/tr][tr][td]Stauffer, Tim[/td][td].120[/td][td].160[/td][td].241[/td][td].401[/td][/tr][tr][td]Lyon, Brandon[/td][td].202[/td][td].232[/td][td].262[/td][td].494[/td][/tr][tr][td]Moehler, Brian[/td][td].176[/td][td].206[/td][td].293[/td][td].499[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mejia, Jenrry[/td][td].120[/td][td].240[/td][td].267[/td][td].507[/td][/tr][tr][td]Ondrusek, Logan[/td][td].205[/td][td].282[/td][td].262[/td][td].544[/td][/tr][/table]
[h4]Curvy[/h4]
Here are the best numbers for curveballs among the NL pitchers who threw 200+ curves.
[table][tr][th=""]Pitcher[/th][th=""]BAVG[/th][th=""]SLG[/th][th=""]OBP[/th][th=""]OPS[/th][/tr][tr][td]Veras, Jose[/td][td].031[/td][td].078[/td][td].127[/td][td].205[/td][/tr][tr][td]McClellan, Kyle[/td][td].092[/td][td].108[/td][td].132[/td][td].240[/td][/tr][tr][td]Hensley, Clay[/td][td].112[/td][td].146[/td][td].141[/td][td].287[/td][/tr][tr][td]McDonald, James[/td][td].140[/td][td].158[/td][td].140[/td][td].298[/td][/tr][tr][td]Sanches, Brian[/td][td].171[/td][td].171[/td][td].200[/td][td].371[/td][/tr][tr][td]Oswalt, Roy[/td][td].133[/td][td].204[/td][td].168[/td][td].372[/td][/tr][tr][td]Carpenter, Chris[/td][td].149[/td][td].202[/td][td].191[/td][td].393[/td][/tr][tr][td]Axford, John[/td][td].136[/td][td].227[/td][td].174[/td][td].401[/td][/tr][tr][td]Myers, Brett[/td][td].173[/td][td].197[/td][td].207[/td][td].404[/td][/tr][tr][td]Garcia, Jaime[/td][td].180[/td][td].180[/td][td].231[/td][td].411[/td][/tr][/table]
[h4]Curvy[/h4]
Here are the best numbers for curveballs among the AL pitchers who threw 200+ curves.
[table][tr][th=""]Pitcher[/th][th=""]BAVG[/th][th=""]SLG[/th][th=""]OBP[/th][th=""]OPS[/th][/tr][tr][td]Anderson, Brett[/td][td].158[/td][td].158[/td][td].158[/td][td].316[/td][/tr][tr][td]Verlander, Justin[/td][td].149[/td][td].188[/td][td].165[/td][td].353[/td][/tr][tr][td]Sabathia, CC[/td][td].149[/td][td].191[/td][td].167[/td][td].358[/td][/tr][tr][td]Romero, Ricky[/td][td].133[/td][td].195[/td][td].170[/td][td].366[/td][/tr][tr][td]Gonzalez, Gio[/td][td].150[/td][td].199[/td][td].187[/td][td].386[/td][/tr][tr][td]Arrieta, Jake[/td][td].186[/td][td].209[/td][td].182[/td][td].391[/td][/tr][tr][td]Wright, Jamey[/td][td].137[/td][td].196[/td][td].196[/td][td].393[/td][/tr][tr][td]Lester, Jon[/td][td].136[/td][td].208[/td][td].185[/td][td].393[/td][/tr][tr][td]Chen, Bruce[/td][td].178[/td][td].205[/td][td].208[/td][td].413[/td][/tr][tr][td]Floyd, Gavin[/td][td].164[/td][td].242[/td][td].176[/td][td].418[/td][/tr][/table]
[h4]The Good Slide[/h4]
Here are the best numbers for sliders, among the AL pitchers who threw many of them.
[table][tr][th=""]Pitcher[/th][th=""]BAVG[/th][th=""]SLG[/th][th=""]OBP[/th][th=""]OPS[/th][/tr][tr][td]Bard, Daniel[/td][td].085[/td][td].136[/td][td].127[/td][td].263[/td][/tr][tr][td]Hochevar, Luke[/td][td].088[/td][td].123[/td][td].148[/td][td].270[/td][/tr][tr][td]Verlander, Justin[/td][td].106[/td][td].152[/td][td].145[/td][td].296[/td][/tr][tr][td]Choate, Randy[/td][td].122[/td][td].163[/td][td].137[/td][td].301[/td][/tr][tr][td]Holland, Derek[/td][td].106[/td][td].149[/td][td].160[/td][td].309[/td][/tr][/table]
[h4]The Good Slide[/h4]
Here are the best numbers for sliders, among the NL pitchers who threw many of them.
[table][tr][th=""]Pitcher[/th][th=""]BAVG[/th][th=""]SLG[/th][th=""]OBP[/th][th=""]OPS[/th][/tr][tr][td]Venters, Jonny[/td][td].074[/td][td].088[/td][td].125[/td][td].213[/td][/tr][tr][td]Wagner, Billy[/td][td].086[/td][td].151[/td][td].104[/td][td].255[/td][/tr][tr][td]Kershaw, Clayton[/td][td].099[/td][td].126[/td][td].138[/td][td].264[/td][/tr][tr][td]Masset, Nicholas[/td][td].098[/td][td].098[/td][td].179[/td][td].277[/td][/tr][tr][td]Hanrahan, Joel[/td][td].103[/td][td].155[/td][td].125[/td][td].280[/td][/tr][/table]
The most frequent question I received on last week's top 100 prospects package -- other than "Why do you hate my team?" and "Where's Ryan Kalish?" -- was about the players on the list most likely to make an impact in 2011.
[h4]Projecting the Prospects[/h4]
Want more information? Dan Szymborski projects Keith Law's impact prospects' performance in the 2011 season. Three of the players are projected for 20+ homers -- find out here.
The 20 prospects listed here are, in order, the ones I consider most likely to get playing time and produce in that time this year. So, to be clear: That means that I've ignored any question of long-term potential. We're talking about impact in 2011, period.
1. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta | Prospect Rank: 43
Right now, Freeman appears to be the only rookie position player in the majors who has a full-time job locked down, and his history of making contact and hitting for average with good doubles power in the minors bodes well for his transition to the majors. He's just 21 and doesn't walk a ton, so there's some risk, but Atlanta made a wise move giving him the job and allocating the money they might have spent on a replacement elsewhere.
2. Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, Tampa Bay | Prospect Rank: 14
As ready as it gets, with command of four pitches, plus control, and a delivery he repeats easily. He doesn't have the ceiling of the guys ahead of him on the top 100 (like Julio Teheran or Shelby Miller) but the Rays should be very confident that he can fill Matt Garza's shoes without a major drop off -- as long as he keeps the ball in the park.
3. Kyle Drabek, RHP, Toronto | Prospect Rank: 13
Drabek's development over the course of 2010 made it easier for the Jays to trade Shaun Marcum to Milwaukee, as their prospect added a cutter and a two-seamer to keep hitters off his hard but often flat fastball. His stuff is big league ready, but his command needs work, and I wouldn't be shocked to see some high strikeout and walk totals if he does spend the full year in Toronto. He has to win a job in spring training but is better right now than any of his competitors.
4. Mike Minor, LHP, Atlanta | Prospect Rank: 61
Solid command of an average fastball/above-average changeup; he'll flash an average curveball, on which nights he'll be very good, and there's always a chance he rediscovers the plus velocity he showed in the first half of 2010. The best part about Minor for Atlanta is that he's very unlikely to be awful or require a demotion; if he's healthy, he'll help the big club.
5. J.P. Arencibia, C, Toronto | Prospect Rank: 82
I don't think he's the long-term answer in Toronto, but he's the short-term answer, with big power that should compensate for a low OBP at a position where replacement level currently sits at the bottom of a crevasse. I'd feel a little better about him if he had 70-80 more at-bats down the stretch last year, when instead Cito Gaston decided to play John Buck just because he could.
6. Domonic Brown, OF, Philadelphia | Prospect Rank: 3
Should have the right field job locked down, but the Phillies seem strangely noncommittal, as if they'd seriously entertain a Ben Francisco/John Mayberry platoon or something. Brown did scuffle in a tiny sample last year, but he's not going to learn to hit major league quality changeups by going back to Triple-A. He has succeeded because he's so athletic but needs to work on things like pitch recognition and throwing mechanics. That will only happen in the majors, and he's talented enough to contribute at a lower level while he develops.
7. Chris Sale, LHP, Chicago White Sox | Prospect Rank: 67
Where he belongs on this list depends on his role. If he's in the 'pen, he and Craig Kimbrel will battle it out for top rookie reliever, and you can't underestimate the effect Don Cooper and Ozzie Guillen seem to have on relievers. If he's starting, he'll probably go back to the minors, and I share the general industry consensus that he won't hold up for 180 innings. Let's hope the Sox stick him in the 'pen and let him go until he breaks; they'll be better off in 2011 for it.
8. Craig Kimbrel, RHP, Atlanta | Prospect Rank: NR
Has the pure stuff to miss bats; his rate of strikeouts per nine innings was the highest in history for any pitcher with at least 20 innings. (Oddly enough, three more of the top 14 occurred last year: Carlos Marmol, Kenley Jansen, and Billy Wagner.) He's also got a long history of below-average control, only "improving" when rosters expanded in September of last year. But it's big stuff and Atlanta seems inclined to give him first shot at closing.
9. Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Cincinnati | Prospect Rank: 15
I do think Chapman could start; he has three pitches, and while he was pretty high-effort in relief, he can sit at 94-95 while throwing at about 80 percent effort, and from a lefty that's comfortably plus. But the Reds see him as a reliever, and if that's his role, he'll probably spend all of 2011 in the bullpen, striking out hitters left and right. He did lose a little something on back-to-back days in 2010, something to keep in mind as we watch Dusty Baker fire up the ol' arm-shredder.
10. Hank Conger, C, L.A. Angels | Prospect Rank: 62
I'd like to think that the trade of Mike Napoli opens up not just a roster spot for the switch-hitting Conger, but 400 or so at-bats as well. But the Angels have an irrational love of the infinite out-making capacity of Jeff Mathis, who now boasts a .265 OBP in more than 1,000 career plate appearances in the majors -- and if that ain't evidence that he can't hit, I'm a potted plant. Conger won't kill the Angels behind the plate and he'll be worth an extra couple of wins over giving Mathis the full-time job.
11. Kenley Jansen, RHP, L.A. Dodgers | Prospect Rank: NR
Didn't get the publicity that Kimbrel got, probably because the Dodgers didn't make the playoffs, but Jansen has a similar profile -- big fastball to miss bats, below-average control -- with a little more upside because he's only been pitching for a year and a half. He did get the ball in save situations the final week or so of the season and has to be somewhere in line for the closer job after the next Jonathan Broxton implosion.
12. Zach Britton, LHP, Baltimore | Prospect Rank: 11
Britton is close to ready now, and has a good argument to be listed as one of the five best starters in the Baltimore system. But the Orioles aren't contending this year, and there's some financial logic to promoting Britton in June rather than in April. Two months in Triple-A to work on tightening up his command won't hurt him any.
13. Jordan Walden, RHP, L.A. Angels | Prospect Rank: 85
I don't know if they'll keep Walden to start the season, but I have heard the Angels' coaching staff was very impressed by what they saw from Walden, particularly the 99 mph bowling ball he throws. Like Kimbrel and Jansen, he's got command questions, but the Angels have a pretty good track record for coaxing improvement from relievers in the big leagues over the last decade or so.
14. Michael Pineda, RHP, Seattle | Prospect Rank: 21
What I said for Britton also applies to Pineda, who should see the majors by midyear but will probably stay down as the team manages his service time. He's also a year younger than Britton and had trouble with the long ball in Triple-A, so there's a viable baseball argument to send him down, although that was the only real blemish on his 2010 performance.
15. Desmond Jennings, CF, Tampa Bay | Prospect Rank: 20
Before the Manny/Damon signings, it seemed much more likely that Jennings would garner 500 at-bats in the majors in 2011, but that probability has dropped, and even so, Jennings does have to prove he can stay healthy for a full season. If he plays in the majors this year, he'll have more immediate impact with his glove and legs than his bat.
16. Brandon Belt, 1B, San Francisco | Prospect Rank: 17
The only reason he's not at or near the top is the lack of a job for him on Opening Day, and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he Poseyed his way into the majors before the June period when clubs looking to prevent super-two designations recall their prospects. (That said, the new CBA may very well wipe out super-two status entirely, which would be a net positive for baseball.) If Belt does get a full season in San Francisco, I'd like his chances to challenge Freeman for NL Rookie of the Year.
17. Dustin Ackley, 2B, Seattle | Prospect Rank: 7
Like Belt, Pineda and Britton, he'll probably stay in the minors for service-time reasons, but he'll also continue to work on his defense -- the last thing the Mariners want is to bring their top prospect to the majors, only to see him blow out his knee a week in when Billy Butler takes him out on a double play. I'd expect Ackley to contribute some average and stolen bases once he's recalled.
18. Mike Moustakas, 3B, Kansas City | Prospect Rank: 23
Not ready now, but it's not like Brooks Robinson is in his way, and the Royals are going to feel a lot of pressure this year to give fans a reason to come see the major league club. Promoting their closest top-shelf prospect would qualify; even if he struggles to hit for average, he'll hit some moonshots that will get Royals fans talking.
19. Kyle Gibson, RHP, Minnesota | Prospect Rank: 32
I understand that he's well down the Twins' depth chart, but I'd bet good money that Gibson is a superior option to two members of the Twins' rotation by July 1. That's as much an endorsement of Gibson's combination of strikes and ground balls as an indictment of Spots 4 and 5 in Minnesota.
20. Jesus Montero, C, N.Y. Yankees | Prospect Rank: 4
I have little doubt that he'll hit if he plays, but don't have a good sense of when he'll play -- or if he'll end up traded for a starting pitcher.
I considered Brett Jackson (Cubs), Ben Revere (Twins), and Chris Carter (A's), among others, but couldn't see enough playing time for them in 2011 to include them on the list.
The most frequent question I received on last week's top 100 prospects package -- other than "Why do you hate my team?" and "Where's Ryan Kalish?" -- was about the players on the list most likely to make an impact in 2011.
[h4]Projecting the Prospects[/h4]
Want more information? Dan Szymborski projects Keith Law's impact prospects' performance in the 2011 season. Three of the players are projected for 20+ homers -- find out here.
The 20 prospects listed here are, in order, the ones I consider most likely to get playing time and produce in that time this year. So, to be clear: That means that I've ignored any question of long-term potential. We're talking about impact in 2011, period.
1. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta | Prospect Rank: 43
Right now, Freeman appears to be the only rookie position player in the majors who has a full-time job locked down, and his history of making contact and hitting for average with good doubles power in the minors bodes well for his transition to the majors. He's just 21 and doesn't walk a ton, so there's some risk, but Atlanta made a wise move giving him the job and allocating the money they might have spent on a replacement elsewhere.
2. Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, Tampa Bay | Prospect Rank: 14
As ready as it gets, with command of four pitches, plus control, and a delivery he repeats easily. He doesn't have the ceiling of the guys ahead of him on the top 100 (like Julio Teheran or Shelby Miller) but the Rays should be very confident that he can fill Matt Garza's shoes without a major drop off -- as long as he keeps the ball in the park.
3. Kyle Drabek, RHP, Toronto | Prospect Rank: 13
Drabek's development over the course of 2010 made it easier for the Jays to trade Shaun Marcum to Milwaukee, as their prospect added a cutter and a two-seamer to keep hitters off his hard but often flat fastball. His stuff is big league ready, but his command needs work, and I wouldn't be shocked to see some high strikeout and walk totals if he does spend the full year in Toronto. He has to win a job in spring training but is better right now than any of his competitors.
4. Mike Minor, LHP, Atlanta | Prospect Rank: 61
Solid command of an average fastball/above-average changeup; he'll flash an average curveball, on which nights he'll be very good, and there's always a chance he rediscovers the plus velocity he showed in the first half of 2010. The best part about Minor for Atlanta is that he's very unlikely to be awful or require a demotion; if he's healthy, he'll help the big club.
5. J.P. Arencibia, C, Toronto | Prospect Rank: 82
I don't think he's the long-term answer in Toronto, but he's the short-term answer, with big power that should compensate for a low OBP at a position where replacement level currently sits at the bottom of a crevasse. I'd feel a little better about him if he had 70-80 more at-bats down the stretch last year, when instead Cito Gaston decided to play John Buck just because he could.
6. Domonic Brown, OF, Philadelphia | Prospect Rank: 3
Should have the right field job locked down, but the Phillies seem strangely noncommittal, as if they'd seriously entertain a Ben Francisco/John Mayberry platoon or something. Brown did scuffle in a tiny sample last year, but he's not going to learn to hit major league quality changeups by going back to Triple-A. He has succeeded because he's so athletic but needs to work on things like pitch recognition and throwing mechanics. That will only happen in the majors, and he's talented enough to contribute at a lower level while he develops.
7. Chris Sale, LHP, Chicago White Sox | Prospect Rank: 67
Where he belongs on this list depends on his role. If he's in the 'pen, he and Craig Kimbrel will battle it out for top rookie reliever, and you can't underestimate the effect Don Cooper and Ozzie Guillen seem to have on relievers. If he's starting, he'll probably go back to the minors, and I share the general industry consensus that he won't hold up for 180 innings. Let's hope the Sox stick him in the 'pen and let him go until he breaks; they'll be better off in 2011 for it.
8. Craig Kimbrel, RHP, Atlanta | Prospect Rank: NR
Has the pure stuff to miss bats; his rate of strikeouts per nine innings was the highest in history for any pitcher with at least 20 innings. (Oddly enough, three more of the top 14 occurred last year: Carlos Marmol, Kenley Jansen, and Billy Wagner.) He's also got a long history of below-average control, only "improving" when rosters expanded in September of last year. But it's big stuff and Atlanta seems inclined to give him first shot at closing.
9. Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Cincinnati | Prospect Rank: 15
I do think Chapman could start; he has three pitches, and while he was pretty high-effort in relief, he can sit at 94-95 while throwing at about 80 percent effort, and from a lefty that's comfortably plus. But the Reds see him as a reliever, and if that's his role, he'll probably spend all of 2011 in the bullpen, striking out hitters left and right. He did lose a little something on back-to-back days in 2010, something to keep in mind as we watch Dusty Baker fire up the ol' arm-shredder.
10. Hank Conger, C, L.A. Angels | Prospect Rank: 62
I'd like to think that the trade of Mike Napoli opens up not just a roster spot for the switch-hitting Conger, but 400 or so at-bats as well. But the Angels have an irrational love of the infinite out-making capacity of Jeff Mathis, who now boasts a .265 OBP in more than 1,000 career plate appearances in the majors -- and if that ain't evidence that he can't hit, I'm a potted plant. Conger won't kill the Angels behind the plate and he'll be worth an extra couple of wins over giving Mathis the full-time job.
11. Kenley Jansen, RHP, L.A. Dodgers | Prospect Rank: NR
Didn't get the publicity that Kimbrel got, probably because the Dodgers didn't make the playoffs, but Jansen has a similar profile -- big fastball to miss bats, below-average control -- with a little more upside because he's only been pitching for a year and a half. He did get the ball in save situations the final week or so of the season and has to be somewhere in line for the closer job after the next Jonathan Broxton implosion.
12. Zach Britton, LHP, Baltimore | Prospect Rank: 11
Britton is close to ready now, and has a good argument to be listed as one of the five best starters in the Baltimore system. But the Orioles aren't contending this year, and there's some financial logic to promoting Britton in June rather than in April. Two months in Triple-A to work on tightening up his command won't hurt him any.
13. Jordan Walden, RHP, L.A. Angels | Prospect Rank: 85
I don't know if they'll keep Walden to start the season, but I have heard the Angels' coaching staff was very impressed by what they saw from Walden, particularly the 99 mph bowling ball he throws. Like Kimbrel and Jansen, he's got command questions, but the Angels have a pretty good track record for coaxing improvement from relievers in the big leagues over the last decade or so.
14. Michael Pineda, RHP, Seattle | Prospect Rank: 21
What I said for Britton also applies to Pineda, who should see the majors by midyear but will probably stay down as the team manages his service time. He's also a year younger than Britton and had trouble with the long ball in Triple-A, so there's a viable baseball argument to send him down, although that was the only real blemish on his 2010 performance.
15. Desmond Jennings, CF, Tampa Bay | Prospect Rank: 20
Before the Manny/Damon signings, it seemed much more likely that Jennings would garner 500 at-bats in the majors in 2011, but that probability has dropped, and even so, Jennings does have to prove he can stay healthy for a full season. If he plays in the majors this year, he'll have more immediate impact with his glove and legs than his bat.
16. Brandon Belt, 1B, San Francisco | Prospect Rank: 17
The only reason he's not at or near the top is the lack of a job for him on Opening Day, and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he Poseyed his way into the majors before the June period when clubs looking to prevent super-two designations recall their prospects. (That said, the new CBA may very well wipe out super-two status entirely, which would be a net positive for baseball.) If Belt does get a full season in San Francisco, I'd like his chances to challenge Freeman for NL Rookie of the Year.
17. Dustin Ackley, 2B, Seattle | Prospect Rank: 7
Like Belt, Pineda and Britton, he'll probably stay in the minors for service-time reasons, but he'll also continue to work on his defense -- the last thing the Mariners want is to bring their top prospect to the majors, only to see him blow out his knee a week in when Billy Butler takes him out on a double play. I'd expect Ackley to contribute some average and stolen bases once he's recalled.
18. Mike Moustakas, 3B, Kansas City | Prospect Rank: 23
Not ready now, but it's not like Brooks Robinson is in his way, and the Royals are going to feel a lot of pressure this year to give fans a reason to come see the major league club. Promoting their closest top-shelf prospect would qualify; even if he struggles to hit for average, he'll hit some moonshots that will get Royals fans talking.
19. Kyle Gibson, RHP, Minnesota | Prospect Rank: 32
I understand that he's well down the Twins' depth chart, but I'd bet good money that Gibson is a superior option to two members of the Twins' rotation by July 1. That's as much an endorsement of Gibson's combination of strikes and ground balls as an indictment of Spots 4 and 5 in Minnesota.
20. Jesus Montero, C, N.Y. Yankees | Prospect Rank: 4
I have little doubt that he'll hit if he plays, but don't have a good sense of when he'll play -- or if he'll end up traded for a starting pitcher.
I considered Brett Jackson (Cubs), Ben Revere (Twins), and Chris Carter (A's), among others, but couldn't see enough playing time for them in 2011 to include them on the list.
jpzx
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[h1]http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2...ir-guerrero-to-a-one-year-8-million-contract/[/h1]
[h1]Report: Orioles sign Vladimir Guerrero to a one-year, $8 million contract[/h1]
By: D.J. Short
Feb 4, 2011, 6:08 PM EST
Well, it looks like Vlad won this staring contest.
According to Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes, the Orioles have signed Vladimir Guerrero to a one-year, $8 million contract.
I’m curious to find out whether this figure includes potentialincentives, but if not, this would mean that the Orioles ultimatelybought Guerrero’s pitch that he had another $8 million offer on thetable.
Guerrero is projected to be the regular designated hitter for the Orioles, moving Luke Scott to left field and Nolan Reimold and Felix Pieto the bench. The team’s defense will likely take a hit because of it,but their lineup now stacks up pretty well with the rest of theAmerican League East.
Nice addition for the Orioles. They definitely overpaid, but when you look at that lineup it's slowly creeping toward a team that might compete in the AL East. Mark Reynolds, Nick Markakis, Matt Wieters, Vladimir Guerrero, Adam Jones, Derrek Lee, etc.
Their rotation is still atrocious though.
jpzx
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[h1]http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2...ir-guerrero-to-a-one-year-8-million-contract/[/h1]
[h1]Report: Orioles sign Vladimir Guerrero to a one-year, $8 million contract[/h1]
By: D.J. Short
Feb 4, 2011, 6:08 PM EST
Well, it looks like Vlad won this staring contest.
According to Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes, the Orioles have signed Vladimir Guerrero to a one-year, $8 million contract.
I’m curious to find out whether this figure includes potentialincentives, but if not, this would mean that the Orioles ultimatelybought Guerrero’s pitch that he had another $8 million offer on thetable.
Guerrero is projected to be the regular designated hitter for the Orioles, moving Luke Scott to left field and Nolan Reimold and Felix Pieto the bench. The team’s defense will likely take a hit because of it,but their lineup now stacks up pretty well with the rest of theAmerican League East.
Nice addition for the Orioles. They definitely overpaid, but when you look at that lineup it's slowly creeping toward a team that might compete in the AL East. Mark Reynolds, Nick Markakis, Matt Wieters, Vladimir Guerrero, Adam Jones, Derrek Lee, etc.
Their rotation is still atrocious though.
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O's are quietly putting together a nice squad...still need a lot more pieces, but there is no reason why they can't be a .500 ball club this season. Their lineup:
1. Roberts
2. Markakis
3. Lee
4. Guerrero
5. Scott
6. Reynolds
7. Jones
8. Wieters
9. Hardy
lets get that pitching in order....
1. Roberts
2. Markakis
3. Lee
4. Guerrero
5. Scott
6. Reynolds
7. Jones
8. Wieters
9. Hardy
lets get that pitching in order....
- 21,151
- 37
- Joined
- Mar 13, 2004
O's are quietly putting together a nice squad...still need a lot more pieces, but there is no reason why they can't be a .500 ball club this season. Their lineup:
1. Roberts
2. Markakis
3. Lee
4. Guerrero
5. Scott
6. Reynolds
7. Jones
8. Wieters
9. Hardy
lets get that pitching in order....
1. Roberts
2. Markakis
3. Lee
4. Guerrero
5. Scott
6. Reynolds
7. Jones
8. Wieters
9. Hardy
lets get that pitching in order....
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Wieters batting 8th? That's a nightmare scenario for MacPhail and company, no doubt they are looking for a breakout year. If the MLB season reaches all-star break, and the Orioles are still having to bat Wieters 8th, the only explanation is that somewhere along the line of his development, something went terribly, terribly wrong.Originally Posted by DoubleJs07
O's are quietly putting together a nice squad...still need a lot more pieces, but there is no reason why they can't be a .500 ball club this season. Their lineup:
1. Roberts
2. Markakis
3. Lee
4. Guerrero
5. Scott
6. Reynolds
7. Jones
8. Wieters
9. Hardy
lets get that pitching in order....
The pitching staff is fine for now, although at some point in the next couple of seasons they'll have to splurge on a (relatively) big name guy. Let's not forget that aside from that bum Kevin Millwood, the pitching staff had a ~3.2 ERA in the final 60 some odd games. Oh, and Brian Matusz is the real thing.
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Wieters batting 8th? That's a nightmare scenario for MacPhail and company, no doubt they are looking for a breakout year. If the MLB season reaches all-star break, and the Orioles are still having to bat Wieters 8th, the only explanation is that somewhere along the line of his development, something went terribly, terribly wrong.Originally Posted by DoubleJs07
O's are quietly putting together a nice squad...still need a lot more pieces, but there is no reason why they can't be a .500 ball club this season. Their lineup:
1. Roberts
2. Markakis
3. Lee
4. Guerrero
5. Scott
6. Reynolds
7. Jones
8. Wieters
9. Hardy
lets get that pitching in order....
The pitching staff is fine for now, although at some point in the next couple of seasons they'll have to splurge on a (relatively) big name guy. Let's not forget that aside from that bum Kevin Millwood, the pitching staff had a ~3.2 ERA in the final 60 some odd games. Oh, and Brian Matusz is the real thing.
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Originally Posted by abovelegit1
Wieters batting 8th? That's a nightmare scenario for MacPhail and company, no doubt they are looking for a breakout year. If the MLB season reaches all-star break, and the Orioles are still having to bat Wieters 8th, the only explanation is that somewhere along the line of his development, something went terribly, terribly wrong.Originally Posted by DoubleJs07
O's are quietly putting together a nice squad...still need a lot more pieces, but there is no reason why they can't be a .500 ball club this season. Their lineup:
1. Roberts
2. Markakis
3. Lee
4. Guerrero
5. Scott
6. Reynolds
7. Jones
8. Wieters
9. Hardy
lets get that pitching in order....
The pitching staff is fine for now, although at some point in the next couple of seasons they'll have to splurge on a (relatively) big name guy. Let's not forget that aside from that bum Kevin Millwood, the pitching staff had a ~3.2 ERA in the final 60 some odd games. Oh, and Brian Matusz is the real thing.
I'm expecting a breakout year for Wieters....he'll definitely start lower in the lineup, but I fully expect him to move up as the year goes on. He's been a "bit" of a disappointment considering the hype that was surrounding him when he broke into the bigs a few seasons back.
Buck is gonna get this team back to respectability....I got faith.
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Originally Posted by abovelegit1
Wieters batting 8th? That's a nightmare scenario for MacPhail and company, no doubt they are looking for a breakout year. If the MLB season reaches all-star break, and the Orioles are still having to bat Wieters 8th, the only explanation is that somewhere along the line of his development, something went terribly, terribly wrong.Originally Posted by DoubleJs07
O's are quietly putting together a nice squad...still need a lot more pieces, but there is no reason why they can't be a .500 ball club this season. Their lineup:
1. Roberts
2. Markakis
3. Lee
4. Guerrero
5. Scott
6. Reynolds
7. Jones
8. Wieters
9. Hardy
lets get that pitching in order....
The pitching staff is fine for now, although at some point in the next couple of seasons they'll have to splurge on a (relatively) big name guy. Let's not forget that aside from that bum Kevin Millwood, the pitching staff had a ~3.2 ERA in the final 60 some odd games. Oh, and Brian Matusz is the real thing.
I'm expecting a breakout year for Wieters....he'll definitely start lower in the lineup, but I fully expect him to move up as the year goes on. He's been a "bit" of a disappointment considering the hype that was surrounding him when he broke into the bigs a few seasons back.
Buck is gonna get this team back to respectability....I got faith.
I'm still really high on Wieters. I think their rotation will go through some more growing pains this year and more AAA arms will come up to help towards the end. I expect them to take bigger steps next year. That park is a nightmare for pitchers
I think this year and next year in the AL East is going to be even more of a dogfight than it's been the last year or two.
I think this year and next year in the AL East is going to be even more of a dogfight than it's been the last year or two.
I'm still really high on Wieters. I think their rotation will go through some more growing pains this year and more AAA arms will come up to help towards the end. I expect them to take bigger steps next year. That park is a nightmare for pitchers
I think this year and next year in the AL East is going to be even more of a dogfight than it's been the last year or two.
I think this year and next year in the AL East is going to be even more of a dogfight than it's been the last year or two.
bkmac
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bkmac
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Bend_The_Knee
formerly gotholesinmysocks
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al east is gonna be real tough
cant wait
cant wait
Bend_The_Knee
formerly gotholesinmysocks
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al east is gonna be real tough
cant wait
cant wait
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Eric Chavez was one of my favorite players at one time.
Reds signed Volquez.
Reds signed Volquez.
