When evaluating players, there are dozens of variables to consider. But the one that tends to be forgotten the most by fans -- yet treasured strongly by NBA executives -- is the player's age.
Teams consider age for two main reasons: (1) It helps explain the player's success in college, and (2) it shows how long the player has to make big jumps in production. The top targets are always young players who are big producers. After that, teams value young players who are solid but have the physical/skill trajectory of a much better player -- their youth provides them with more time to develop.
As has been discussed in these reports numerous times, a player's trajectory -- his upside -- is best realized when he's in his best environment for growth. The team may or may not be good, but the opportunity for development must be there. Many times, of course, it is not. So when we project how a player is going to perform over time, that has to be taken into account.
However, we can still rate a player purely on the level of his ceiling, how good the player can ultimately be if given the perfect situation. And that's what we'll be doing over the next several weeks as we rank the rookies by age. Up first, the guys who typically have the highest ceilings, the 19-year-olds.
Drummond
1. Andre Drummond, Pistons
There are many ways to define talent. But for the sake of this report, I like to define talent as "production minus mechanics." That is, someone who is very productive and efficient without really knowing what he's doing is extremely talented. Like Drummond.
Last April, I wrote that Drummond could be an All-Star in his second or third season, if he developed according to plan, because there are so few men on earth who can move like he can at his size and length. But he's even better than I projected. There is no one else in this age group who has his collection of tools. The fact that he's doing so much without understanding the game suggests he can truly dominate beginning as early as next season and lasting over a decade. When you can own the paint on both ends, you become a superstar, and Drummond has that in his reach.
If he can develop just an average free throw stroke, he can become a multiple-time All-Star -- yes, even without any kind of reliable post move. And that is the beauty of being just 19 years old -- he has years to develop more than just his free throw shooting. As he begins to read and anticipate while also crafting his game, he'll improve even more than he has since high school.
Davis
2. Anthony Davis, Hornets
If the draft were held today, it's absolutely possible -- maybe even likely -- that Drummond would go No. 1 overall. But Davis would certainly not fall below No. 2. He's proven to be every bit of the can't-miss prospect we thought he would be, combining elite athleticism and timing with a better set of offensive skills than we saw in the NCAA championship game.
I never saw Davis as a future Tim Duncan, as others have, but if Davis and Drummond were stocks, I'd probably allocate most of my money on Davis. Drummond has a higher ceiling on paper, but Davis is more likely to reach a higher level, thanks to his more polished game and his elite quickness for the position.
He is also going to get stronger, and his game will jump a few levels when that happens, making him an elite defender possibly by next season and helping him become a multiple-time All-Star.
Beal
3. Bradley Beal, Wizards
I never understood the Ray Allen comparisons, other than they each have sweet-looking strokes. Beal is more like a less-quick version of Eric Gordon, but a better shooter. That alone makes him good enough for third on this list.
As the NBA has evolved on defense -- flooding ball-side action and making teams make the extra pass to the opposite side -- great perimeter shooting has become more valuable than ever. Take a look at the top six 3-point-shooting teams by percentage: Golden State, New York, Oklahoma City, Atlanta, Miami and San Antonio. All six are playoff teams, including the top two seeds in each conference.
Beal has the game to be a strong starter for a contender, and he is capable of being a career 40-plus-percent shooter from deep. As a gifted ball-mover and a willing defender, he's going to be in consideration for future All-Star berths if he's on contending teams. He can also be his team's leading scorer, depending on the offensive game plan, and his talent as a shooter should help his teammates have productive seasons simply because of the attention he'll draw.
Kidd-
Gilchrist
4. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Bobcats
Kidd-Gilchrist shouldn't be viewed as a 19-year-old for the simple reason that his body is far beyond most his age. So he won't change as much physically as the other rookies on this list. But that's not to say he won't get better, because he will.
We can assume he will be at least an average shooter, perhaps even a solid one. And we know MKG projects to be the best player on his team in one category: defense, which is where his talent lies. His overall feel and effort rank high, as well. (Each of the three guys above him on this list can be the best player on his team in at least two categories.)
However, offense carries more weight than defense -- the top five teams in this league right now are also the top five offensive teams, and the past four title teams were all top-four offenses in the postseason because they feature dynamic offensive players. MKG is a step behind Drummond, Davis and Beal on that end.
Wroten
5. Tony Wroten, Grizzlies
Wroten has the biggest range between his best-case and worst-case scenarios on this list. He is a superbly gifted and willing passer, with special vision and anticipatory skills that help him find buckets for teammates. He's also a big guard who has the potential to be tough to defend off the dribble. His size and quickness enable him to have big defensive potential, too, with the added bonus of being able to guard 2s and give his team the ability to play two point guards in crunch time. Coaches love that option in today's game.
All of this sounds great until we factor in his downside: poor decision-making, very little reading of the game along with lots of wildness, and an inability to shoot perimeter shots and free throws. If I was ranking the players who were most likely to reach their potential, Wroten would finish last on the list. Talentwise, though, he's got the rare tools to be a long-term starter as a defensive ace and a passing wizard.
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To Be Determined
Harkless
Moe Harkless, Magic
I don't know what to make of Harkless as of now. He's long and relatively athletic, but as a nonshooter and a nonscorer I can't tell what he can become yet. He looks to be effective in the paint, thanks to his length, and he had experience playing more as a big forward than a small forward at St. John's.
I see some Thaddeus Young in him, which should make Orlando smile, and I think he can be a better perimeter defender than Young is. If Harkless can learn to make 15-foot jumpers, he could be a solid bench player for a good team, at the least. Adding a reliable 3-point shot would give him a higher ceiling, but few guys learn to shoot it well when they never have before, except for guards.
Teague
Marquis Teague, Bulls
We've barely seen Teague on the court this season, which is somewhat surprising considering Derrick Rose has been out. Perhaps Teague's weak frame and lack of defensive IQ are what's keeping him on the bench. But we know his quickness is at an elite level, and his brother, Atlanta's Jeff Teague, took a few years before he arrived.
I think Teague has a bright future in this league. His ball skills and quicks are rare. So seeing him start at point guard one day in the NBA would not be surprising, though it would be surprising in Chicago. I expect him to play great in Vegas this coming summer, giving us a better chance to evaluate his upside. Like the other guys on this list, he's just 19 years old and has time to develop.