Even after 15 consecutive victories, the Nuggets — and their playoff prospects — remain drenched in public skepticism. No team is easier to write off with tired platitudes, and thus every conversation regarding Denver’s merit inevitably comes to address the ways in which the team fails to line up with the playoff standard.
That separation from the traditional contender mold is undeniable. Since trading Carmelo Anthony two seasons ago, the Nuggets have evolved along a track that fully differentiates them from the rest of the league to the point that playing against Denver is a challenge unlike any other in the NBA. The fruits of their ingenuity and insistent efforts have slotted the Nuggets as the third seed in the Western Conference, and better yet: a possible, improbable fringe championship contender.
Let’s consider the most common, general criticisms of the Nuggets and their style before dismissing them out of hand. First and foremost is the lack of a superstar player, much less the two or three stars traditionally considered requisite for contention. The Nuggets have no all-world dynamo in the vein of LeBron James or Chris Paul, and nothing even remotely close. Even Denver’s best players are borderline All-Stars lacking a skill set even vaguely reminiscent of those who have led their teams to championships. This is reason enough for some to disregard Denver as a regular-season wonder, and it’s hard to argue against the empirical precedent of star-driven teams. (Ninety-two percent of the champions from 1956 through 2005 had a recent All-NBA first-team selection, according to 82games.com.)
Yet most of what a superstar provides for a contender can be boiled down to an economy of function. It’s convenient to have a vast collection of those necessary skills and attributes distilled into one player, but a superstar is only as necessary as those underlying qualities afforded. Typically, chief among those traits is the capacity to create efficient offense — something of a superstar hallmark in today’s NBA. It’s no longer sufficient for a star to pile up points, as it’s all the more crucial that he does so without the ill-advised attempts or raw shooting volume that might offset the impact of his scoring. True offensive anchors are able to maximize their points per shot attempt, typically by getting to the basket, scoring from beyond the arc and getting to the free-throw line.
Denver is successful in two of those ways despite the lack of a standout star — so much so that it ranks fourth in the NBA in points per possession.
The Nuggets’ offense can be defined by its insistence on getting to the rim. Every player in the lineup works in concert to advance the ball closer to the basket on a second-by-second basis. The bulk of that work is accomplished by pushing the pace with unbelievable abandon – an effort that results in all kinds of looks around the basket as the Nuggets overwhelm flat-footed opponents in the open court. Denver has a great understanding of how much it can give up in the way of defensive rebounding in order to jump-start its fast break, with Corey Brewer and Andre Iguodala quickly topping the ranks of the NBA’s premier leak-out scorers. Further, point guards Ty Lawson and Andre Miller waste precious little time dawdling in the transition between defense and offense, consistently challenging opponents to keep pace.
When things slow down, coach George Karl has remedied Denver’s spacing and shot-creating issues in the half court by dialing up the movement and involving the big men in tons of screening action, as Grantland’s Zach Lowe illustrated in his breakdown of the Nuggets’ offense last week. The Nuggets incorporate so many dribble hand-offs and so much off-ball cutting that their possessions can seem like a desperate scramble, though most every action is a valuable step in bringing the play closer to the rim. That might be easy enough to counter if the Nuggets weren’t collectively flying around the court to set screens and cue curls, but no Denver player stands still long enough for opponents to really capitalize on any particular matchup or exploitable area of the court.
Denver just keeps churning, and as a result leads the NBA in shot attempts at the rim. To put it in perspective, here’s a look at the Nuggets’ attempts in the restricted area during their 15-game streak compared with the rest of the NBA’s top 10 in that category over the same stretch:
Every Nuggets game is an all-out assault on the basket (Denver has outscored opponents in the paint in 52 consecutive games), with no regard for the mid-range jumpers that some teams rely on as an inefficient crutch. As a result, Denver also ranks a fantastic fifth in free-throw rate — an area of performance typically reserved for those teams with stellar individual shot creators. True to form, no Nuggets player averages more than five free throw attempts per game, though virtually every component of Denver’s regular rotation manages to get to the line at a respectable clip.
Every player at Karl’s disposal can either handle a drive or finish inside, providing a solid skill foundation for a furious fast-breaking team that brings a similar aim and frantic approach to its half-court sets. The end result isn’t perfect, as the Nuggets ultimately rate as an above-average half-court offense. But when that slight success is paired with a brutal and relentless transition game, there’s reason enough to believe that even a postseason dynamic wouldn’t unsettle an offense this potent.
Another one of the most common critiques of the Nuggets’ balanced roster is the question of who will take the last shot. It’s a good question, but one that’s hardly been relevant this season. While Lawson, Iguodala, Miller and Danilo Gallinari have all done their fair share of good work in the clutch, it’s Denver’s success overall that makes this more or less a moot point for the moment.
According to NBA.com, the Nuggets rate as one of the best offensive teams in the league in clutch* situations by way of their shooting percentages. Only four teams — the Heat, Clippers, Lakers and Blazers — have posted a higher effective field-goal percentage in clutch situations than the Nuggets, in part because Denver brings the same aggressive transition drive and flurry of half-court movement to its late-game offense. While other teams get bogged down with simplified isolations, Denver continues to execute its fluid, motion-heavy offense until clock management becomes an unavoidable issue. Not only does that make the Nuggets far less predictable in crunch time than any other team, but it also allows Karl to manipulate matchups by relying on the same screen-heavy actions to instigate beneficial defensive switches. Even without a specific player to go to in end-game situations, Denver creates advantages by continuing to be more aggressive in its playing style.
*Clutch, in this case, is defined as any possession with less than five minutes remaining in which either team is ahead by no more than five points.
Plus, Denver is consistently underrated as a defensive team, in part because it allows 101 points per game (No. 24 in the league) as a result of its fast-paced style. But in assessing per-possession performance rather than the far-too-broad per-game scope, the Nuggets are 11th and have improved a lot over the course of the season.
Andre Miller drives on LeBron James
Andre Miller (right) and the Nuggets rank second in the NBA in pace. (Garrett W. Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images)
Quantitative measures aside, though, I don’t think we consider enough just how defeating playing against the Nuggets can be. Denver is rivaled only by Miami in exploiting live-ball turnovers and may be the best in converting a defensive rebound into a transition opportunity. Those factors, while seemingly small, can create a mental fatigue that dwarfs even the physical toll of playing against the Nuggets at altitude.
When this team is operating at peak or near-peak levels, its success in transition is so consistent that each missed shot from an opponent seems as though it will result in a Denver dunk. Every pass is an opportunity for a turnover that would surely result in Nuggets points. Every opponent’s deep drive into the paint is a voluntary surrender of good defensive positioning against a transition chance. As Denver works through every possession at a dead sprint, doubt and hesitation begin to creep into the minds of its opponents, which only pulls them further and further into the Nuggets’ trap.
The general trends of playoff basketball (slower pace in general, time for proper tactics and scouting, lower turnover rates) will make things more difficult, but Denver’s style is ultimately wearying for opponents to defend in full-court and half-court situations alike. Neither matching aggression nor offsetting tentativeness is the remedy for the Nuggets’ oppressive style, and yet opponents so often fall into a rhythm of trying to play too cautiously or too wildly in their attempt to control the game. In that, the Nuggets’ approach — so often cited as a reason for some inevitable playoff failure — is an incredible asset, and one that isn’t likely to be quelled solely by teams tightening up in a postseason setting.
It’s easy to pick out all the things that the Nuggets are not — an elite defensive team, a traditional star-driven operation, a grind-it-out offense — and it remains to be seen whether a team this unconventional can apply its style to a certain playoff series. It’s not perfect, but this Nuggets team has the kind of nuance in its offense that could more fully make up for the lack of a traditional star, and an altogether more consistent philosophy that breaks down opponents from opening tip until the final minutes.