- Oct 24, 2010
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watched highlight, damn either its the jersey n shorts or Pierce got skinny as hell
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Who's No. 1 pick in 2013 draft?
During college hoops season, Jay Bilas and Chad Ford will start the week off by addressing a big question, evaluating NBA prospects on the rise and looking ahead to next week.
The discussion: Who's the early favorite to be the No. 1 pick in the 2013 NBA draft?
Chad Ford: It's been nearly five years since NBA GMs faced the dilemma that they do right now. In the 2012, 2011, 2010, and 2009 drafts the choice was clear.
This year? Not so much.
At least three players -- Kentucky's Nerlens Noel, Indiana's Cody Zeller and UCLA's Shabazz Muhammad -- came into the season with a legit shot at going No. 1. Two others -- Kentucky's Alex Poythress and Maryland's Alex Len -- have been mentioned as possible No. 1s as well by GM's I've spoken with since the season began.
Right now scouts are pretty evenly split between the three. Zeller is off to a somewhat underwhelming start. Muhammad didn't really wow anyone in his first two games. He's very aggressive, but teams do have questions about how his game will translate. Noel was billed as being the rawest of the three and, for the most part, that's proven true.
Obviously it's very early and things will change. Muhammad has just three games under his belt. Noel has just five. And Zeller? He's still adjusting to the fact that he now has a huge target on his chest. In other words, I think we'll see all three get better as the season progresses.
So who would I take No. 1 if the draft was held today? Zeller's more polished right now and Muhammad has the potential to be a 20 ppg scorer at the next level, but I'd take Noel. I've had him atop my Big Board since July 1 and I've seen nothing to persuade me he isn't the best prospect in this draft. Of the three, Noel has the biggest upside and is the most likely to fit a need on the handful of teams we've already identified as potential NBA lottery teams.
And for the record, Noel hasn't been nearly as raw as we anticipated he'd be. For the first five games at Kentucky, Noel has a college PER of 30.04 -- better than the PER scores of both Zeller and Muhammad. He's averaging a very respectable 12.4 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 3.6 bpg, 3.0 apg and 2.6 spg in just over 30 mpg. He's shooting better than 60 percent from the floor and despite his aggressiveness on the defensive end, he's managed to stay out of foul trouble.
I think the comparisons to Anthony Davis are unfair. However, he's almost exactly on par with Davis' averages in his first five games and not that far off from where Davis ended the season: 14.2 ppg, 10.4 rpg. 4.6 bpg ,1.6 apg, 1.4 spg on 62 percent shooting.
For someone who was supposed to come in and struggle out of the gate, Noel has been more than solid and is getting better and better with each game. With so few legitimate centers in the league that can really control the paint, I still believe he has the inside track on the No. 1 pick.
Jay Bilas: This is not a great draft, with an overall talent level that is relatively low compared to past years. This year's class reminds one of 2011 when we all lamented how bad the draft talent crop was (and we were correct, in my judgment), yet there is always good value in any year. The same is true this season. However, there appears to be no Kyrie Irving-caliber player to top this year's draft.
As Chad mentioned, the top three prospects in this year's NBA draft are Noel, Zeller and Muhammad, and they're each different players.
Noel is long and athletic with a live body and the ability to run, rebound and block or change shots on the defensive end. He has great feet and mobility, and is leading Kentucky in steals as well as blocks and rebounding. He is playing over 30 minutes per game and is averaging 12 points on only 8 shot attempts per game, almost 9 rebounds and over 3.5 blocked shots. Noel is valuable for his ability to change ends and finish plays, but he is very raw on the offensive end and his offensive skill set needs to be refined, and he needs to be able to make free throws. But, because of his size, athletic ability and shot blocking, he is a worthy top selection. His offense will develop over time, and his instincts and passing ability are impressive for his age.
Zeller is the superior offensive player to Noel, but does not impact the game on the glass or on the defensive end in the same manner. Where Zeller can match or beat Noel is in changing ends of the floor. I don't know whether the Zeller family put the dinner plates 94 feet from too little food, but the Zeller boys can all run the floor. Cody has a good array of post moves and does a nice job out of pick and rolls. He is a much better shooter than he has shown, and is developing a driving game as well. Zeller can hit a face-up shot, and needs to be more assertive in that area. But, while Zeller is going to be a top five selection and a good pro for a long time, he does not appear to be a future All-Star.
Muhammad is a left-handed, transition-oriented wing that is a worker. He has missed significant time due to a ridiculous NCAA suspension, and he also missed time due to a shoulder injury. Muhammad has not yet impressed to the level of his talent, but I believe he will. Yet, in just 53 total minutes of playing time, he is averaging 18 points per game on 50 percent shooting, and he has gotten to the line 15 times. Muhammad is not a Russell Westbrook athlete, but he is an NBA athlete and can be very good. He still needs to work on his handling and passing, and must become a more reliable perimeter shooter. In the snapshot culture, Muhammad's stock is up and down, but he simply needs some time. He is playing on a young team that is trying to figure it out. Give him another 10 games or so, and Muhammad will prove to be the best player in the Pac-12.
Prospect on the rise
Bilas: Brandon Paul, G, Illinois Fighting Illini
Paul was outstanding in the Maui Invitational, and not only played to his talent, but played with consistency. Paul has always had the ability to score, as evidenced by his career numbers and his 43-point performance last year against Ohio State. He has very good size for a guard, and he has the ability to bring the ball upcourt and initiate offense. Paul is athletic, and an outstanding long-range and intermediate-range jump shooter that can play in transition or in the halfcourt. Paul also has the tools to be a really good defender, and he did a nice job defensively in Maui. He has clearly worked on his handle, and has matured as a player and a leader. He needs to continue to improve as a driver, and not settle for jump shots. His demeanor is very good, and he has stepped into a leadership role for Illinois.
Ford: Otto Porter, F, Georgetown Hoyas
Porter absolutely wowed scouts last week at the Legends Classic in New York with his strong play against UCLA and Indiana. His line against UCLA was a box score stuffer. 18 points, 11 rebounds, 5 assists, 5 blocks, 3 steals and a perfect 2-for-2 from beyond the arc. He struggled in the first half against Indiana before putting the team on his back and carrying them into overtime the next night. Porter had five points and a rebound in the last 30 seconds of regulation.
What's clear from watching both games is that Porter is now the leader of this team and that he's markedly improved his jump shot from last year. Porter's long-range jumper and his leadership abilities were the two biggest questions scouts had about his game.
Porter's been ranked as a potential Top-11 pick on our Big Board since July 1 and hasn't actually moved up in the rankings much, but it's nice to see so many others recognizing what a talent he is.
What to watch for this week
Ford: I actually have a ton of games to watch on my Tivo this week thanks to the challenges between the Big Ten and ACC and the Big East and SEC.
Tuesday I'm tuning into the Michigan-North Carolina State and North Carolina-Indiana double header. I've been disappointed in both North Carolina and NC State so far, but Michigan and Indiana both look like the real deal.
Wednesday has a stellar Ohio State-Duke matchup. I'm much more sold on Duke than I am on Ohio State right now.
Thursday I'm watching Marquette-Florida and Kentucky-Notre Dame. Florida has been terrific coming out of the gate, but will face a very gritty Marquette team. Notre Dame should be another strong test for Kentucky.
Finally, I'm really looking forward to the Syracuse-Arkansas game. There are a lot of scouts crossing their fingers that Arkansas' B.J. Young is the real deal. With no real point guards in the draft, they need him to be good.
Bilas: I'll be dialing in on Ohio State at Duke. Duke has played a difficult schedule, and Ohio State is on the back end of an NBA-worthy six games in 10 days.
Duke has played Kentucky, Minnesota, VCU and Louisville, and has been playing a hobbled Seth Curry a ton of minutes. Ohio State has not played the same difficult slate, and will enter Cameron Indoor Stadium as the fresher team on Wednesday night. The Buckeyes have an elite scorer in lefty Deshaun Thomas, an elite on-ball defender in Aaron Craft, and a tough all-around performer in Lenzelle Smith Jr. Duke has gotten great play from Mason Plumlee, who has performed as a First Team All-American, and Quinn Cook, who has been steady and has made great decisions at the point guard spot. Cook was the MVP of the Battle for Atlantis, even though Plumlee was Duke's best player.
Duke comes into this game still smarting from an 85-63 thrashing at Ohio State in last year's ACC-Big Ten Challenge, and will be looking for a little payback. But, to get it, Duke has to dominate the glass and win the frontcourt battle. Ohio State will have a difficult time matching Plumlee and Ryan Kelly inside, and Amir Williams and Eric Ravenel must avoid fouls and play big inside.
LinkWizards still haunted by Gilbert Arenas deal
Gilbert Arenas is playing basketball in Shanghai these days, nearly 7,500 miles away and several years removed from the place where he electrified fans in Washington with his quirky personality and quick release from anywhere on the floor.
Arenas’s three all-star appearances with the Wizards earned him a six-year, $111 million contract from owner Abe Pollin in the summer of 2008. But a deteriorating knee and a disastrous decision in the locker room forced President Ernie Grunfeld and current owner Ted Leonsis to cut ties and break free of an albatross of a deal that seemingly would’ve financially hamstrung the franchise through 2014.
Grunfeld dealt Arenas to the Orlando Magic in December 2010 for Rashard Lewis and received praise from rival executives for unloading what once seemed immovable. Lewis’s contract came off the books one year earlier than Arenas’s deal and could give the team greater flexibility to rebuild around John Wall.
But nearly two years later, the shadow of Arenas’s monster contract continues to haunt the Wizards. They traded Lewis’s expiring contract — with only $13.7 million guaranteed — and the 46th overall pick to the New Orleans Hornets last June in order to commit $43 million over the next two seasons to Trevor Ariza and Emeka Okafor.
At the time the Wizards consummated the trade for Ariza and Okafor, Grunfeld stressed the importance of adding veterans to a team littered with young pups. He also emphasized the need to get something for nothing, since the team would’ve otherwise paid Lewis to not play for them. But it appears that the Wizards have turned one expensive blunder into another with Ariza and Okafor both struggling and the team off to a franchise-worst 0-11 start.
Ariza and Okafor account for one-third of a $66 million payroll, the 19th highest in the league. But Coach Randy Wittman has already benched the duo in favor of less-seasoned players at the start of games, and they are often not on the floor with the outcome of the games in doubt.
“It’s tough,” Okafor said, as the Wizards prepare to host the San Antonio Spurs on Monday at Verizon Center. “I’m a competitor, but right now, we’re just trying to get wins and when you’re 0-11, you try to find a way. So I’ve always been a team player and I’m going to do what I can do.”
Not playing up to par
Okafor is the Wizards’ highest-paid player at $13.5 million this season, but he is off to the worst start of his career. He arrived in Washington averaging a double-double over his first eight seasons in Charlotte and New Orleans, but he is contributing career lows of 7.7 points on 40 percent shooting and 6.1 rebounds. He hasn’t played beyond the third quarter in five games and sat for both overtime periods in the Wizards’ 108-106 loss Saturday against Charlotte.
“I love his experience. I need his experience,” Wittman recently said of Okafor. “But when you’re not playing that game to the level that we need to be playing and I’ve got somebody else sitting there that I feel is going to give me that, I’ve got to go with that. That’s a gut feeling. That’s coaching. That’s all that is.
On his third team in the past four years, Ariza could probably benefit from playing with Wall, who remains out eight weeks after it was announced that he had a stress injury in his left knee. But with the Wizards lacking a facilitator on offense, Ariza has tried to take it upon himself to do more and the results have been the worst shooting figures of his career. He is connecting on just 32 percent from the floor and 24.2 percent from beyond the three-point line.
“Shot selection is the main thing,” Wittman said recently, when asked in what area he would like to see Ariza improve. “Contested shots is not a good thing for him. He’s not that type of player.”
Ariza’s minutes and production have been up and down and he declined to comment when asked recently if the inconsistent playing time has affected his ability to develop a rhythm. He has been consistent on the defensive end, where he is tied for sixth in the NBA with 2.0 steals per game.
“I want to do everything better,” Ariza said recently. “I want to do everything I can to try to get this team a win.”
Overlooked alternatives
Lewis had a forgettable tenure in Washington, averaging 9.7 points in just 60 of a possible 112 games as he dealt with problems in both knees. Now a backup in Miami, Lewis admitted that he probably should’ve played fewer games because he was never healthy.
“It was very frustrating and I forced myself to get out there and play, just because of the amount of money I was making,” said Lewis, who made $22 million last season. “I don’t think it was a good idea to go out there and force myself to play. It really hurt me.”
Realizing that he was simply holding a huge chunk of the salary cap, Lewis knew that his time was up once the season ended — but he was surprised about how the Wizards went about ending his tenure. The Wizards had at their disposal the one-time amnesty provision, which allows teams to pay a player their remaining salary without counting it toward the league’s luxury tax. But they had reserved it for Andray Blatche — who will receive $7.1 million from the Wizards this season.
“I thought I would get amnestied. I didn’t know I would get traded,” said Lewis, who later received a buyout from the Hornets before signing with the Heat.
The Wizards are better off not having to pay Arenas, who was the first player waived through the amnesty provision and can’t find employment with another NBA team before the life of his deal expired. But they had other alternatives to utilize the money that they have now committed to Okafor and Ariza.
Veterans Elton Brand and Luis Scola hit the free agent market last summer through the amnesty provision, and cap space was all that was needed to acquire shooters such as Dorell Wright or Kyle Korver through trades.
The Wizards also could’ve invested more time in developing draft picks Chris Singleton, Jan Vesely and Kevin Seraphin, who stand to lose playing time in the presence of the two veterans.
Okafor and Ariza have player options for next season but exercising them is unlikely since they would have to walk away from considerable amounts of money to become free agents. When their contracts expire, the Wizards will have the flexibility to be active during an attractive 2014 free agent period that will include Wall.
For now, Okafor is still trying to stay patient and positive as the duo continues to adjust. “It builds a lot of mental toughness,” Okafor said. “Never smooth and easy all the time. When it’s not, that’s when you find true character. It’ll turn around.”
Who else in the league does this? Recognizes the pass, breaks it up, dribbles the length of the floor, goes between someone's legs and then finishes at the basket.
That play should have never counted. Pretty sure you can't touch the ball, go outta bounds, come back in and touch the ball again (without anyone else touching it).
black falcon :x
i really hate this nick name :x
i really hate this nick name :x
just as bad as black mamba :x
Chris Wilcox was there too I thinkBlake, Dixon, Drew Nicholas was a good era at UMD.......Lonny Baxter? College Park was jumping.
at Blake and Duhon being teammates now.
@mr_jasonjones DeMarcus Cousins says ref cursed at him before ejecting him Saturday and that his techs will not be rescinded.
He said that Dwight is "jokative."What the scrub say?