Life is easier for the league's big-market teams, but not so easy that a shrewd small-market team can't outflank them … especially with the help of a once-in-a-generation-type star.
Like, say, Tim Duncan or Kevin Durant.
Today's first edition of the Playoff Odds shows just how helpful having those two players has been for the championship ambitions of the Spurs and Thunder, respectively. (For a detailed explanation of the Playoff Odds, click here.) Last year's Western Conference finalists are favored to meet again to decide the conference crown, currently projecting as the league's only 60-win teams.
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Want more? There's an 88.7 percent chance that one of the two is the conference's top playoff seed (Memphis and the Clippers can still get in here), a 75.4 percent chance that one of the two is the conference champion, and a 58.0 percent chance that one of the two is our eventual champion.
Let me repeat that: 58.0 percent. The Finals is normally a roughly 50-50 proposition, but this tool is unimpressed enough with the likely Eastern Conference winner (New York or Miami) to install either the Spurs or Thunder as heavy favorites. "Spurs or Thunder," right now, looks like a better bet than the field.
I'm not sure I'd go that far in real life, which is where we get to the important discussion of the Playoff Odds' limitations. The way this method works is by taking every team's performance in the year-to-date at face value, by using their Power Ranking to play out the rest of the season 5,000 times. The obvious problem comes if one's team's strength over its final 60 or so games is likely to be radically different from its performance to date. In some cases these are obvious: Most notably, it seems likely Miami and the Lakers will play better than they have thus far.
The best and worst thing about the Playoff Odds is that they don't care about "seems." The Heat haven't played like a championship-caliber team on most nights, which is why it only gives them a 3.9 percent chance of doing so. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to argue that's probably too low.
Instead, consider this a statement about each team's trajectory. Miami doesn't strike us as a 53-29 team, but if they keep doing what they've been doing, that's where the Heat will end up. Similarly, the Lakers might not finish 42-40, but that's the kind of season they're heading toward so far.
This works better for teams that have been largely intact and aren't resting on their laurels. The top four seeds in the West, for instance, already seem pretty much locked in based on the results to date, and that's reflected in their projected finish.
From there, you can turn it around and focus on the outliers. The most notable thing about the Lakers is not the 42-40 next to their name, but that, barring injury, the top four teams in the West may already be too far gone for them to catch -- in that case, say hello to four straight series on the road if you want to win a title, L.A. Similarly, the takeaway from Miami's start so far is not that 3.9 percent in its title odds, but the fact that New York surprisingly represents a genuine foil for them to get out of the East.
There's one other important point to consider, which is that injuries aren't included. In most cases this isn't as much of an issue as people might think -- teams are normally playing without one or two rotation players, especially after the first couple of weeks, so "we beat them without Kyle Korver!" isn't really a game-changer.
But a few players make such a dramatic impact -- I'm looking at you, Dirk -- that their eventual return would likely have a hugely positive effect on the team in question. Because of that, Dallas is almost certainly undervalued in the Playoff Odds right now, as are other injury-hit teams like the Lakers, the Timberwolves, and -- if Andrew Bynum ever returns -- the Sixers.
Now that we've established the ground rules, here are a few other notable developments from Oddsville:
Expect the poles to widen
One thing you'll notice is that right now only six teams project to win more than 50 games, while the worst record in the league is just 25-57. In all likelihood, the final standings will be a lot more extreme than this.
One reason is that the Playoff Odds formula uses a "regression to the mean" function that tries not to overreact to crazy good (or bad) results from early-season games. But what's true for the individual isn't necessarily true for the group. Individually, it's likely that each of Charlotte, Washington, Toronto, Cleveland and Phoenix will land in the mid-20s in wins. But as a group, it's extremely likely that one of them face-plants south of 20. We just have no means of knowing which one.
And there is a second, more important factor completely beyond our control: tanking. Or let's call it, more gently, "motivation." After the trade deadline, bad teams tend to play even worse and good teams even better, because the bad ones rightfully are working on future stuff rather than trying to win immediately; in fact, several of them have traded their best players to the good teams to accelerate that process.
We see this most obviously among the lower-tier playoff teams. Every year, we get a bulge of teams in the low-to-mid-40s in wins, and a paucity of them in the mid-to-high-30s. Teams usually decide they're in or out and then act accordingly; we haven't modeled that yet.
The Lakers' playoff chances
The Lakers project to have a 55.5 percent chance to make the playoffs right now, which puts two interesting prospects in play.
First, did you realize that if the Lakers miss the playoffs, Phoenix ends up with a lottery pick? I have a feeling the Suns weren't really banking on this, and probably still aren't. But they can dare to dream, right?
Second, and more importantly, it shows just how much of a battle it's going to be for the Lakers to get into a decent playoff position. The Lakers have had injuries, yes, but look around them in the Playoff Odds: Minnesota and Dallas both have had their share of calamity, and Golden State is without its star center. The Lakers may eventually outdistance all these teams, but we've played a quarter of the season and they're tied for 11th place in the conference.
Golden State in the playoffs?
With the Warriors off to a 14-7 start, Golden State seems in good shape to usurp one of the West's playoffs spots -- their current odds stand at 81.6 percent, and as noted above they've done this mostly without Andrew Bogut.
If they're in, it creates a real mess for the hopefuls beneath them. One presumes that the top four teams will make it easily, and I think most still figure the Lakers will join them. If Golden State also makes it, that leaves Denver, Utah, Minnesota, Houston and Dallas fighting for two spots. If you further presume that Denver will recover from its early malaise and land nearer 50 wins than the 45 currently projected, that leaves just one spot for the rest.
All we really know is that somehow, some way, Houston will manage to finish ninth.
Drama in the East?
With several teams already having excused themselves from contention, the East playoff race looks far less interesting. Once again it's basically nine teams challenging for eight spots, although the surprising non-deadness of Orlando could keep this list at 10 for a while.
Right now the 12-9 Sixers are the ones on the outs, largely because an easy early schedule will turn against them, but if they get Bynum back they're likely to exceed that projection. Indiana should be better too, given Danny Granger's likely midseason return, and I hear the Bulls might have a decent player coming back to the lineup this spring as well.
Which leaves us with Milwaukee, the Houston of the East, battling to avert another ninth-place finish. Unlike the Rockets, it appears the Bucks may juuuust be able to nudge that boulder to the top of the hill.
New York, New York
And finally, yes, there are the Knicks, who project right now to land as the top seed in the East. They lead the Heat by half a game, own the tiebreaker and have four fewer road games left.
Regardless of whether Miami passes them, it doesn't appear anybody else will without some serious self-inflicted wounds from the Knicks. Such problems are still possible, especially depending on how they incorporate Amar'e Stoudemire, but the most likely outcome by far is that the Knicks go into the playoffs as Atlantic Division champions with a top-two playoff seed.
I'll have more on their newfound mojo later this week, but for now here's an appropriate Playoff Odds takeaway: the Knicks on course for the top seed. Doesn't mean they'll get there, with 62 games left to play, but it's a nice place to be all the same.
Ain't saying ****.
Where do I even start? 
